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New Orleans Hurricane Protection System Overview by Mike Park

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New Orleans Hurricane Protection System Overview by Mike Park Powered By Docstoc
					    New Orleans
Hurricane Protection
 System Overview
            by

         Mike Park
   HPS Program Manager
      Task Force Hope
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

       March 19, 2008
100-Year Level of Protection




   One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
           Current System Programmatic Schedule
                                  Current
                                   Date
                        Jun Sep             Jun Sep          Jun Sep           Jun Sep    Jun Sep          Jun Sep
                 CY        07                  08               09               10         11               12


                                                        Levees, Floodwalls, Armoring

     Perimeter
     Protection
                                                                  IHNC


     Permanent
     Pumping

                              Pump Repair


     Interior                                                             SELA
     Drainage
                                                                 Storm Proof

    Plaquemines
    Larose to GM
    Grand Isle                                                                                      Baseline Schedule:
                                                                                                        Pre-award
     Planning         LaCPR                                          Subsequent Actions
                                                                                                        Construction

Peak Hurricane                                                                                 Required Funding (10/08)
   Season
                                  *Assumes required funding received beginning of FY09         100 Year Protection (6/1/11)

                       One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
US Army Corps
of Engineers
          ®
                Cost to Complete Estimate

     • $7.1B – current appropriation provides improved
       system protection

     • $7.5B – total estimated additional funds required
       to restore authorized and provide 100-yr level of
       System protection and complete SELA

     • $5.8B – included in FY09 President’s budget
       request




                  One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
US Army Corps
of Engineers
          ®
                  Construction Status
    • Total expected construction contracts: ~298
    • Awarded 140+ construction contracts for $1.4B
    • Overall Program Estimate: ~$14.6B

                       2008 and Beyond
    • 2008 – Anticipate awarding about 40+ contracts for
      around $2B
    • Award IHNC Surge Barriers w/Advance Measures
    • Award 30+ contracts for Levees, Floodwalls and
      Armoring
    • Award 3 contracts for pump station repairs
    • Award 3 contracts for SELA (interior drainage)
                One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
                                                                         Contract Awards
                                       18


                                                        28 - TFG
                                       16
                                                        104 - Awarded thru 2/08
                                                        126 - Schedule Awards thru 2/08
# of Construction Contracts Awarded




                                       14               166 - Remaining to Award
                                                        298 Total
                                       12



                                       10



                                         8



                                         6



                                         4



                                         2



                                         0
                                          7




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                                                                                                Planned Awards        Awarded      Rescheduled

                                                             One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
                                                            Construction Complete
                                            12

                                                                  28 - TFG Construction Complete
                                                                  66 - Construction Complete as of 2/08
                                                                  75 - Schedule Complete as of 2/08
# of Construction Contracts Completed




                                            10
                                                                  204 - Remaining to Complete
                                                                  298 Total

                                             8




                                             6




                                             4




                                             2




                                             0
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                                                                                           Planned Completion     Construction Complete

                                                                One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
         IHNC Surge Protection
• $800M reallocation approved – all funds in place
  for award

• Project Partnering Agreement (PPA)
  negotiations ongoing

• Targeting award of Design-Build contract March
  08 – includes advance measures

• Estimating construction start – June 08




          One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
                                      Ongoing Construction
                                                 Perimeter Protection
                                                           LPV 102 – Lake Marina to Orleans Canal
                                                           • Raise to 19’
      LPV 4.1 – St. Charles Levee Reaches 1A, 1B, 2A                      LPV 103 – Orleans Canal to London Canal
      • Raise to 13’-14’                                                  • Raise to 19.5’

                                                                                          LPV 104 – London Canal to IHNC
                                                                                          • Raise to 17.5’-20.5’




WBV 18.1 – Hwy 90 to Lake Cat. PS
• Raise to 11’-12’




                                                                                                           LPV 142 – IHNC to Paris Rd.
                                                                                                           • Raise to 15’


WBV 15a.1 – Lake Cat PS to Segnette State Park
• Raise to 12’
                                                                                                               LPV 148.01 – Verret to Caernarvon
                                                                                                               • Raise to 17.5’–20.5’
      WBV 14b.1 – Orleans Village to Hwy 45
      • Raise to 12’




                                                                                 WBV 6a.1 – Belle Chasse to Hero Cutoff
                                                                                 • Raise to 10’
                            WBV 01 – Sectorgate to Boomtown Floodwalls
                            • Raise to 14’                                     WBV 02b – Boomtown to Hero PS Floodwalls
                                                                               • Raise to 14’

                                    One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
          IPET and Risk Informed Planning
      Forensic Analysis and Risk-Based System-Wide Assessment

      STORM


                               SYSTEM



                                                           CONSEQUENCES



  Results are
“in the Ground”




                  One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
                                                       All Hurricanes are
                                                                    Matters
                                                     Hurricane Size Equal
                                                       NOT Created
                      Very Low Pressure



                                                                                                                27 ft        Storm surge potential
                                                                                                                             Though Rita and Betsy
                                                                                                                             increases intensities,
                                                                                                                             had similaras a function
Hurricane Intensity




                                                        Camille-5                                  23 ft
                                                                                                                             of intensity, size and
                                                                                                                             Betsy, because of its
                                                                                                                             track.
                                                                                                                             larger size, had the
                                                                             Katrina-3
                                                                                      20 ft                                  potential to produce a
                                                                                                                             4 foot higher storm
                                                                                                                             surge.
                                                                         17 ft
                                                                                                           Betsy-3
                                                                             Rita-3
                                                                13 ft
                      Low Pressure




                                                                                                                             37%
                                                     10 ft



                                              7 ft


                                          5           10        15      20       25           30           35           40

                                                                        Hurricane Size                                                            Click Mouse
                                                             (Radius of Max Wind Field – Nautical Miles)                                          For Animation


                                                           One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
Hurricane Paths Considered in
      the Risk Analysis
                                                                              • 3 HPS Geometries
                                                                                 – Pre-Katrina
                                                                                 – Current (1 June 07)
                                                                                 – 100-year LOP (~2011)

                                                                              • 152 storm hydrographs

                                                                              • 350+ features
                                                                                 – Floodwalls
                                                                                 – Levees
                 8
                                                                                 – Pumps Stations
                 7




                                                                              → 62,928 Hurricane
                 6

                 5
Elevation (ft)




                 4

                 3                                                               Hydrographs
                 2

                 1

                 0
                      1     1.1   1.2   1.3          1.4    1.5   1.6   1.7
                 -1
                                              Time (days)



                          One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
                     IPET Risk Assessment Model

       HAZARD                         SYSTEM                          CONSEQUENCES                             RISK
                                   PERFORMANCE




Water levels – surge and wave       Pre-Katrina, Current, Future   Probability of flooding in each sub-   Index of relative
height at 138 locations                                            basin                                  losses in terms of
                                    Performance of entire 350-                                            Life & Property
152 hurricanes - 25-yr to           mile system (138 reaches,      Potential Property damage and
5,000 + frequency                   350 features)                  loss of life caused by flooding

Variety of intensities, sizes,      Overtopping, potential         Based on pre-Katrina population
speeds and tracks                   breaches, rainfall, pumping    and property conditions for each
                                                                   sub-basin in New Orleans and
                                                                   vicinity



          RISK = Chance of Flooding from Hurricanes X Loss of Property or Life
                                 One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
                                                                  Event Tree
    Hazard analysis                   Polder system probabilities & water                                       Polder consequences
                                                                                                                                                                    HPS Risks
  (hurricane rates and effects)          volumes (conditional values per event)                           (water volume, elevation & loss per event)
                                   Closure &                                         Drainage,    Net water-
Hurricane (hi)   Hurricane                          Overtopping   Breach*                                     Evacuation                 Life     Economic                   Economic
                                   operations                                      pump & power     levels                                                       Life risk
 & rate (li)   spatial effects                          (O)         (B)                                      effectiveness               loss      loss ($)                   risk ($)
                                      (C)                                               (P)           (W)
                                                                                                  1    Water volume
                                                                                        P                                                Exceedance rates
                                                                                            P     2    Water volume   Low                & probabilities
                                                                       B                                                                                         Loss exceedance rates
  (h1,l1)                                                                                              Post-surge     effectiveness E1                           & probabilities:
                                                                            B                     3
                                                                                                       elevation                                                 1. per polder
                                                              O                                                       Medium             Inundation elevations
                  Spatial peak                                                                                        effectiveness E2                           2. per Parish
  (h2,l2)                           All closed                                                                                                                   3. for region
                  surge &                                                               P         4    Water volume
                                         C                                                                            High                                       4. for storm categories
                  effective                                                                 P                         effectiveness E3   Point estimates with
                 wave height                                 O        B                          5    Water volume
                                                                                                                                         epistemic uncertainty
                  (SW), and
                                                                                                                                         estimates               Loss in a time period T
                  durations                                                                            Post-surge
  (hi,li)                                                                  B                      6    elevation

                                  Not all closed                                                  7    Water volume
                                       C                                               P
                                                                                            P     8    Water volume
                                                                       B
  (hN,lN)                                                                                              Post-surge
                                                                            B                     9    elevation
                                                              O

                                                                                        P         10   Water volume

                                                                                            P
                                                              O        B                          11   Water volume


                                                                                                       Post-surge
                                                                           B                      12   elevation


                                                                                                   Water volume
                  Precipitation                    Rainfall                             P
                  inflow (Q)                       volume                                   P     Water volume

                                                                  *includes all
                                                                  failure modes
                                                                  of all reaches
                                                                  and their
                                                                  features




                                      One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
    Risk Methodology




One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
Understanding the Flood Maps

                                   • Color coding on maps
                                     indicates depth of
                                     inundation.


                                                       > 8 ft

                                            6-8 ft
                                   4-6 ft

                          2-4 ft
            0-2 ft




                                                     Deep
           Shallow Flooding
                                                     Flooding




                                                                Click Mouse
                                                                For Animation


  One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
                Flood Depth Maps




2007, 50-Year



                        2007, 100-Year



                                                      2007, 500-Year
           One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
               1% Hurricane Based Flood Depth Maps
Pre-Katrina, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth,   Pre-Katrina, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth,   Pre-Katrina, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth,
              0% Pumps                                 50% Pumps                                100% Pumps




2007, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth,          2007, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth,          2007, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth,
          0% Pumps                                 50% Pumps                               100% Pumps




2011, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth,          2011, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth,          2011, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth,
          0% Pumps                                 50% Pumps                               100% Pumps




                              One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable
               Before Katrina, you had a 1% chance every year
                    of flooding this deep from Hurricanes
Notes:
• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
  demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress
• The water surface elevations are mean values
• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet
• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results
• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
  5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event




                  Assumes 0% Pumping Capacity



                               One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable    March 08
             On June 1, 2007, you had a 1% chance every year
                  of flooding this deep from Hurricanes
Notes:
• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
  demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress
• The water surface elevations are mean values
• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet
• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results
• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
  5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event




                  Assumes 0% Pumping Capacity



                               One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable    March 08
  With the 100-year level of protection, you have a 1% chance
        every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes
Notes:
• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
  demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress
• The water surface elevations are mean values
• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet
• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results
• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
  5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event




                  Assumes 0% Pumping Capacity



                               One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable    March 08
               Before Katrina, you had a 1% chance every year
                    of flooding this deep from Hurricanes
Notes:
• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
  demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress
• The water surface elevations are mean values
• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet
• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results
• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
  5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event




                 Assumes 50% Pumping Capacity



                               One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable    March 08
             On June 1, 2007, you had a 1% chance every year
                  of flooding this deep from Hurricanes
Notes:
• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
  demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress
• The water surface elevations are mean values
• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet
• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results
• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
  5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event




                 Assumes 50% Pumping Capacity



                               One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable    March 08
  With the 100-year level of protection, you have a 1% chance
        every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes
Notes:
• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
  demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress
• The water surface elevations are mean values
• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet
• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results
• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
  5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event




                 Assumes 50% Pumping Capacity



                               One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable    March 08
               Before Katrina, you had a 1% chance every year
                    of flooding this deep from Hurricanes
Notes:
• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
  demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress
• The water surface elevations are mean values
• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet
• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results
• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
  5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event




                 Assumes 100% Pumping Capacity



                               One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable    March 08
             On June 1, 2007, you had a 1% chance every year
                  of flooding this deep from Hurricanes
Notes:
• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
  demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress
• The water surface elevations are mean values
• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet
• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results
• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
  5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event




                 Assumes 100% Pumping Capacity



                               One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable    March 08
  With the 100-year level of protection, you have a 1% chance
        every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes
Notes:
• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,
  demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress
• The water surface elevations are mean values
• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet
• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results
• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of
  5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event




                 Assumes 100% Pumping Capacity



                               One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable    March 08

				
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