Business Analysis Program Applied Risk Assessment by open1tup


									Registration Fees                                                                          Business Analysis Program:
                           CERI Members        Non Members                                   Applied Risk Assessment
Applied Risk Assessment     $1600 each          $1700 each      (CDN funds)

Please add whichever is applicable, GST or HST.
(GST#: R121461313)

To Register Contact

Sue Johnsgaard, Training Services Division
(403) 220-2357 or Fax: (403) 289-2344 or Email:

City:                                   Province:
Postal Code:                     E-mail:
Phone:                                  Fax:
                                                                                   The Applied Risk Assessment (ARA) course is new for 2008 and is
Seminar date:                           Location:                                  at the advanced level, requiring the Financial Literacy and Project
                                                                                   Economics courses as prerequisites.
04/08 Website

                                                                                   The ARA course goes beyond the traditional net present value
New Policy (deadlines, fees & cancellation)                                        model’s treatment of risk. Sensitivity analysis is a straight forward
                                                                                   method as it varies assumed values one at a time and re-computes
•     The deadline for registration is 14 days in advance of the course            results. But sensitivity analysis does not provide probability
•     Details regarding venue and parking, etc will be e-mailed at that time       information as the likelihood of outcomes is ignored. The two-day
•     All fees must be received prior to course attendance                         ARA course examines, explains and illustrates probabilistic methods
•     Invoices will be issued by e-mail at least 7 days prior the course and are   such as Monte Carlo Simulation, Decision Tree Analysis, and Real
      payable upon receipt of invoice                                              Options.
•     Withdrawal within 10 days of the seminar will be subject to a $250           All DECG courses are interactive and provide ample opportunity to
      cancellation fee                                                             apply concepts to industry specific business issues.
•     Notice of less than 7 days to transfer registration to another staff
      member or to the next scheduled course will be subject to a $100
      administration fee
•     CERI reserves the right to cancel a course if minimum registration
      numbers are not be met
Applied Risk Assessment (2-days)                                                             Instructor
The ARA course explains why the net present value model (NPV) needs to be                    ASHER DRORY, MA (Economics), MBA (Finance), CFA, CMC, is a Principal in
enhanced and then discusses three probabilistic risk assessment methods: Monte               Decision Economics Consulting Group (DECG), an international economics
Carlo Simulation (MCS), Decision Tree Analysis (DTA), and Real Options Valuation             consulting firm providing advice and guidance in the areas of project appraisal,
(ROV) as these advanced techniques help decision makers understand the                       cost-benefit analysis, financial and strategic management, business plan
probabilities of the risks and rewards inherent in their business decisions.                 development, and organizational learning and development.
                                                                                             Asher Drory is an authority on capital budgeting. For the past 30 years he has
The MCS module applies probability functions to cells in a spreadsheet and then runs
                                                                                             specialized in financial analysis, business and project valuations, financial
many random trials simulating possible outcomes. The resulting NPV can be
                                                                                             management and strategic management in the energy, high technology and
expressed in likelihood terms. As MCS can be conducted using the popular Excel
                                                                                             financial services sectors.
add-in program called Crystal Ball, participants should download onto their laptop
computer         the     free    trial    version     of    Crystal    Ball software         Asher has worked as Economist in the Economics Division of Ontario Hydro where
( Attendees          he was responsible for development of project economics methodologies. Asher
should bring laptop computers with Crystal Ball loaded onto them as the facilitator          has worked with Touche Ross & Partners (now Deloitte Consulting) as a consulting
will illustrate its use and ask participants to work out problems using it.                  energy economist. He was also a Director of Corporate Planning and director of
                                                                                             Group Development at Aetna Canada for many years.
Detailed MCS topics discussed and illustrated include:
                                                                                             Currently, Asher Drory works with clients to develop comprehensive financial plans
•   The rationale for replacing point estimates with a probability distribution
                                                                                             which are strategically integrated into business plans and project business cases.
•   Specifying probability distributions for a given variable
•   Defining a forecast                                                                      Asher is also an Adjunct Professor of Finance in the Rotman School of
•   Using Tornado charts                                                                     Management at the University of Toronto where he has been teaching graduate
                                                                                             level finance courses since 1991. Asher is particularly noted for his ability to
The course will identify the basic structure of a decision tree and illustrate its use. As   integrate strategic management with financial theory and practice.
DTA is a decision support tool that uses the Stage-Gate model in framing
investments, the ARA course will identify decision outcomes by phase and their               About CERI
outcome probabilities, and show how an expected NPV is derived.
                                                                                             The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) is a cooperative research
ROV is a method that goes far beyond MCS and DTA. Real options analysis includes:            organization established by government and industry parties in 1975. The
                                                                                             Institute's principal role is to undertake objective, independent studies to assist
•     Framing strategic opportunities                                                        corporations and governments in making energy and energy-related decisions and
•     Defining, and identifying real options                                                 policy choices. Related important objectives are the ongoing government/industry
•     Describing the types of real options                                                   review of energy issues and policies and the development of expertise in the
•     Prioritization of capital investments                                                  analysis of energy and environment matters.
•     Development of strategic insights into future opportunities                            Decision Economics Consulting Group (DECG) is an international economic
•     Creation of managerial flexibility                                                     consulting firm providing advice and guidance in the areas of project appraisal,
•     Identifying risk mitigation strategies                                                 cost-benefit analysis, financial management and strategy, and business plan
•     Valuing real options                                                                   development. DECG also specializes in custom designing training courses providing
                                                                                             state-of-the art knowledge to justify new initiatives using rigorous economic
By   the end of the two-day Applied Risk Assessment course participants will:                concepts. DECG courses are comprehensive yet easy to understand and provide
•     Understand MCS, DTA and ROV                                                            participants with concentrated economics knowledge which can be implemented
•     Be able to apply these techniques                                                      immediately. The courses require little prior knowledge or business background in
•     Effectively communicate the results of such analyses in a business case                economics or finance.
               IMPORTANT INFORMATION PRIOR TO ATTENDING                                      CERI and DECG have offered Canadian energy professionals state-of-the-art
    Prerequisite:    Project Economics                                                       business economics training since 2003 and we are now pleased to extend our
    Necessities:     Laptop                                                                  offerings to meet a more diverse set of training needs.
    Download:        Crystal Ball program (please get approval and help from                                   Canadian Energy Research Institute
                     your IT department).      CERI is not responsible for                           #150, 3512 - 33 Street N.W., Calgary, Alberta T2L 2A6
                     support in this regard.                                                        Tel: (403) 282-1231, Fax: (403) 289-2344,

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