CHEMSYSTEMS
SBA PROGRAM
Methanol Strategic Business Analysis
September 2008
www.chemsystems.com
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Contents
Section
1 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. 1.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 1.1.1 Overview...................................................................................................... 1.1.2 Report Contents............................................................................................ 1.2 KEY TRENDS AND CHALLENGES ..................................................................... 1.2.1 Feedstock Issues........................................................................................... 1.2.2 Logistics ....................................................................................................... 1.2.3 Capital Costs ................................................................................................ 1.2.4 Emerging Methanol Markets........................................................................ 1.2.5 New Pricing Paradigm ................................................................................. 1.3 MARKET DYNAMICS............................................................................................ 1.3.1 Methanol Demand........................................................................................ 1.3.2 Supply .......................................................................................................... 1.3.3 Supply/Demand and Trade........................................................................... 1.4 PROFITABILITY AND PRICING .......................................................................... 1.4.1 Methanol Price Forecast............................................................................... 1.5 TECHNOLOGY REVIEW ....................................................................................... 1.5.1 Gas-Based Methanol Processes.................................................................... 1.5.2 Coal/Petroleum Coke Gasification Based Processes ................................... 1.5.3 Methanol Licensor Overview....................................................................... 1.5.4 Technology Developments........................................................................... 1.6 DELIVERED COST COMPETITIVENESS............................................................ 1.7 CONCLUSIONS....................................................................................................... Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 2.1 OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................. 2.2 STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT ............................................................................ 2.2.1 Coverage ...................................................................................................... 2.2.2 Report Contents............................................................................................ Key Trends and Challenges................................................................................................. 3.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 3.2 FEEDSTOCK ISSUES ............................................................................................. 3.2.1 Gas Pricing................................................................................................... 3.2.2 Leveraging Higher Hydrocarbons................................................................ 3.2.3 Capacity Migration ...................................................................................... 3.3 LOGISTICS .............................................................................................................. 3.4 CAPITAL COSTS .................................................................................................... 3.4.1 EPC Sector Overview ..................................................................................
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3.4.2 Materials Prices............................................................................................ 3.4.3 Impact on EPC Costs ................................................................................... 3.4.4 Capital Cost Outlook.................................................................................... 3.5 EMERGING METHANOL MARKETS .................................................................. 3.5.1 Biodiesel....................................................................................................... 3.5.2 Gasoline Blending........................................................................................ 3.5.3 DME............................................................................................................. 3.5.4 Olefins.......................................................................................................... 3.6 NEW PRICING PARADIGM .................................................................................. 3.6.1 Historic Price-Setting Mechanism ............................................................... 3.6.2 New Price-Setting Mechanism..................................................................... 3.7 CONCLUSIONS....................................................................................................... Market Dynamics ................................................................................................................. 4.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 4.2 MARKET DYNAMICS FORECASTING METHODOLOGY ............................... 4.2.1 Capacity Availability and Forecasting ......................................................... 4.2.2 End-Use Consumption Forecasting.............................................................. 4.2.3 Production and Trade Forecasting ............................................................... 4.3 METHANOL DEMAND.......................................................................................... 4.3.1 Traditional Uses of Methanol....................................................................... 4.3.2 Emerging Uses of Methanol......................................................................... 4.3.3 Major Methanol Consumers......................................................................... 4.4 SUPPLY.................................................................................................................... 4.5 SUPPLY/DEMAND AND TRADE ......................................................................... 4.5.1 Global........................................................................................................... 4.5.2 North America.............................................................................................. 4.5.3 South America.............................................................................................. 4.5.4 Western Europe............................................................................................ 4.5.5 Central and Eastern Europe.......................................................................... 4.5.6 Middle East .................................................................................................. 4.5.7 Africa ........................................................................................................... 4.5.8 Japan ............................................................................................................ 4.5.9 China ............................................................................................................ 4.5.10 Other Asia Pacific ........................................................................................ Profitability and Pricing ...................................................................................................... 5.1 NEXANT’S GENERAL PROFITABILITY FORECASTING METHODOLOGY 5.1.1 Introduction.................................................................................................. 5.1.2 Price Influences............................................................................................ 5.2 HISTORIC PROFITABILITY ANALYSIS............................................................. 5.2.1 Historic Price-Setting Mechanism ............................................................... 5.2.2 Methanol Price History ................................................................................
3-11 3-12 3-13 3-14 3-14 3-15 3-15 3-17 3-18 3-18 3-19 3-21 4-1 4-1 4-2 4-2 4-2 4-4 4-5 4-7 4-16 4-22 4-23 4-27 4-27 4-29 4-29 4-30 4-30 4-31 4-31 4-31 4-31 4-32 5-1 5-1 5-1 5-2 5-4 5-4 5-5
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5.2.3 U.S. Profitability Analysis ........................................................................... 5.2.4 West European Profitability Analysis.......................................................... 5.3 PROFITABILITY PROJECTIONS.......................................................................... 5.3.1 New Paradigm Price Setting Mechanism..................................................... 5.3.2 Gasoline Blending of Methanol ................................................................... 5.3.3 Asian and USGC Pricing ............................................................................. 5.4 METHANOL PRICE FORECAST........................................................................... Technology Review............................................................................................................... 6.1 METHANOL PROPERTIES.................................................................................... 6.1.1 Methanol Physical Properties....................................................................... 6.1.2 Methanol Specifications - Product Quality .................................................. 6.2 BASIC CHEMISTRY............................................................................................... 6.3 METHANOL TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW.......................................................... 6.3.1 Gas-Based Methanol Processes.................................................................... 6.3.2 Coal/Petroleum Coke Gasification Based Processes ................................... 6.4 METHANOL LICENSOR OVERVIEW ................................................................. 6.4.1 Market Share ................................................................................................ 6.4.2 Large Scale (5 000 ton Per Day) Experience ............................................... 6.5 DPT AND JM METHANOL TECHNOLOGY........................................................ 6.5.1 Introduction.................................................................................................. 6.5.2 Low Pressure Methanol (LPM) Process ...................................................... 6.5.3 Leading Concept Methanol (LCM) Process ................................................ 6.5.4 Improved Low Pressure Methanol (ILPM) Process..................................... 6.5.5 Compact Methanol (MCR) Process ............................................................. 6.5.6 Combined Reforming................................................................................... 6.5.7 Offshore Methanol Production..................................................................... 6.5.8 Changing Feedstocks ................................................................................... 6.6 UHDE METHANOL TECHNOLOGY .................................................................... 6.6.1 Synthesis Gas Generation ............................................................................ 6.6.2 Methanol Synthesis ...................................................................................... 6.6.3 Methanol Distillation ................................................................................... 6.7 JACOBS METHANOL TECHNOLOGY ................................................................ 6.8 LURGI MEGAMETHANOL TECHNOLOGY ....................................................... 6.8.1 Pre-Reforming.............................................................................................. 6.8.2 Synthesis Gas Production............................................................................. 6.8.3 Methanol Synthesis ...................................................................................... 6.8.4 Methanol Distillation ................................................................................... 6.8.5 Supply of Power and Oxygen ...................................................................... 6.9 MITSUBISHI GAS CHEMICAL METHANOL TECHNOLOGY ......................... 6.9.1 Introduction.................................................................................................. 6.9.2 Synthesis Gas Preparation............................................................................
5-9 5-10 5-12 5-12 5-13 5-17 5-18 6-1 6-1 6-1 6-1 6-4 6-7 6-7 6-11 6-21 6-21 6-22 6-24 6-24 6-25 6-35 6-41 6-44 6-45 6-49 6-51 6-56 6-56 6-58 6-60 6-63 6-65 6-65 6-65 6-67 6-75 6-75 6-76 6-76 6-78
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6.9.3 Methanol Synthesis ...................................................................................... 6.9.4 Recovery ...................................................................................................... 6.9.5 Distillation.................................................................................................... 6.10 HALDOR TOPSOE METHANOL TECHNOLOGY .............................................. 6.10.1 Indroduction ................................................................................................. 6.10.2 Synthesis Gas Preparation............................................................................ 6.10.3 Methanol Synthesis ...................................................................................... 6.10.4 Methanol Distillation ................................................................................... 6.10.5 Co-production of Methanol in Ammonia Plants .......................................... 6.11 METHANOL CASALE............................................................................................ 6.11.1 Introduction.................................................................................................. 6.11.2 Standard Methanol Process .......................................................................... 6.11.3 Advanced Methanol Process ........................................................................ 6.12 TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS....................................................................... 6.12.1 Introduction.................................................................................................. 6.12.2 Recent Selected Patents ............................................................................... 6.12.3 Carbon Dioxide Reforming.......................................................................... 6.12.4 Selective Liquid-Phase Direct Oxidation of Methane to Methanol ............. 6.12.5 Biomethanol ................................................................................................. 6.12.6 Biomass Gasification ................................................................................... 6.12.7 Polygeneration from Coal ............................................................................ 6.12.8 Liquid-Phase Methanol Technology ............................................................ Delivered Cost Competitiveness.......................................................................................... 7.1 BACKGROUND ...................................................................................................... 7.1.1 Introduction.................................................................................................. 7.1.2 Cost of Production Terminology.................................................................. 7.1.3 Location Factors........................................................................................... 7.1.4 Other Cost Elements .................................................................................... 7.2 BASIS AND COVERAGE ....................................................................................... 7.3 FEEDSTOCK PRICES ............................................................................................. 7.3.1 Gas Prices..................................................................................................... 7.3.2 Coal Price in China ...................................................................................... 7.3.3 Vacuum Residue Value................................................................................ 7.4 SHIPPING COSTS ................................................................................................... 7.5 PLANT CONSIDERED............................................................................................ 7.5.1 Results..........................................................................................................
6-78 6-79 6-79 6-80 6-80 6-80 6-84 6-84 6-84 6-87 6-87 6-87 6-90 6-92 6-92 6-92 6-97 6-97 6-100 6-100 6-105 6-106 7-1 7-1 7-1 7-1 7-2 7-3 7-4 7-5 7-5 7-6 7-6 7-7 7-9 7-9
Figure
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1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9
Global Natural Gas Costs....................................................................................................... Potential Cash Costs for Projected New Methanol Supply, 2008-2025................................. Methanol from Vacuum Residue Oil ..................................................................................... Hot Rolled Steel Plate Prices ................................................................................................. Global Biodiesel Production .................................................................................................. Effect of U.S. Natural Gas on Methanol Price ....................................................................... Methanol:Premium Gasoline Price Ratio............................................................................... Global Methanol Consumption, 1990-2025........................................................................... Global Methanol Consumption by End Use, 2007-2025 .......................................................
1-2 1-5 1-6 1-9 1-11 1-15 1-17 1-18 1-19 1-22 1-23 1-24 1-25 1-27 1-28 1-29 1-29 1-30 1-30 1-32 3-2 3-5 3-6 3-10 3-11 3-12 3-14 3-18 3-20 3-21 4-2 4-4 4-5 4-5 4-6 4-6 4-7 4-8
1.10 Global Methanol Supply/Demand.......................................................................................... 1.11 Global Net Trade.................................................................................................................... 1.12 Methanol Price Setting Mechanism ....................................................................................... 1.13 Methanol Price Forecasts ....................................................................................................... 1.14 Methanol Technology Licensors............................................................................................ 1.15 Methanol Licensor Market Share(1) ...................................................................................... 1.16 Methanol Delivered Cost to Western Europe (Rotterdam), 2007 .......................................... 1.17 Methanol Delivered Cost to USGC (Houston), 2007............................................................. 1.18 Methanol Delivered Cost to South-East Asia (Singapore), 2007........................................... 1.19 Methanol Delivered Cost to North-East Asia (Yokohama), 2007 ......................................... 1.20 Methanol Industry Dynamics ................................................................................................. 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 Global Natural Gas Costs....................................................................................................... Potential Cash Costs for Projected New Methanol Supply, 2008-2025................................. Methanol from Vacuum Residue Oil ..................................................................................... Contracting Workload in the Middle East.............................................................................. Hot Rolled Steel Plate Prices ................................................................................................. Middle East EPC Contract vs. Crude Oil Prices .................................................................... Global Biodiesel Production .................................................................................................. Effect of U.S. Natural Gas on Methanol Price ....................................................................... Methanol:Premium Gasoline Price Ratio............................................................................... End Use Consumption Drivers............................................................................................... Trade Considerations ............................................................................................................. Regional Breakdown of Methanol Consumption, 2007......................................................... Global Methanol Consumption, 1990-2025........................................................................... Methanol Consumption by Application, 2007 ....................................................................... Global Methanol Consumption by End Use, 2007-2025 ....................................................... Formaldehyde Consumption by Application, 2007 ............................................................... Acetic Acid Consumption by End Use, 2007 ........................................................................
3.10 Methanol Industry Dynamics .................................................................................................
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Global Biodiesel Production ..................................................................................................
4-17 4-23 4-27 4-28 5-1 5-4 5-5 5-8 5-8 5-9 5-10 5-11 5-13 5-16 5-17 5-18 5-19 6-8 6-12 6-13 6-17 6-18 6-21 6-22 6-24 6-26 6-28 6-28 6-30 6-30 6-31 6-32 6-33 6-34 6-36 6-37 6-38 6-43
4.10 Global Methanol Capacity Breakdown, 2007-2025............................................................... 4.11 Global Methanol Supply/Demand.......................................................................................... 4.12 Global Net Trade.................................................................................................................... 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 Data Flow within ChemSystems Simulator ........................................................................... Effect of U.S. Natural Gas on Methanol Price ....................................................................... Global Methanol Pricing ........................................................................................................ U.S. Methanol Price History .................................................................................................. West European Methanol Price History................................................................................. Differential between West European and U.S. Contract Methanol Prices............................. U.S. Methanol Margin History............................................................................................... West European Methanol Margin History ............................................................................. Methanol:Premium Gasoline Price Ratio...............................................................................
5.10 Methanol Price Setting Mechanism ....................................................................................... 5.11 Methanol (Gas Based Plant) Cash Cost Margins ................................................................... 5.12 Methanol Price Forecasts ....................................................................................................... 5.13 West European Methanol Price Forecasts.............................................................................. 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 Selected Methanol Reformer Options .................................................................................... Flow Scheme for the Production of Methanol from Coal or Petroleum Coke....................... Three Main Gasification Processes(1) ................................................................................... GE Energy Gasifier ................................................................................................................ Lurgi Dry-Ash Gasifier .......................................................................................................... Methanol Technology Licensors............................................................................................ Methanol Licensor Market Share(1) ...................................................................................... Davy Process Technology (DPT) & Johnson Matthey Catalysts (JM) Technology Evolution Timeline................................................................................................................. Johnson Matthey Catalysts Low Pressure Methanol Process ................................................
6.10 ARC Converter....................................................................................................................... 6.11 Methanol Equilibrium Profile in Quench Converter.............................................................. 6.12 Toyo Engineering Corporation MRF-Z Converter ................................................................ 6.13 Temperature Profile of MRF-Z Converter ............................................................................. 6.14 Tube Cooled Converter .......................................................................................................... 6.15 Methanol Equilibrium Profile in Tube Cooled Converter...................................................... 6.16 Radial Steam Raising Converter(2)........................................................................................ 6.17 Axial Steam Raising Converter(2) ......................................................................................... 6.18 Davy Process Technology Distillation System for Methanol ................................................ 6.19 Johnson Matthey Catalysts Leading Concept Methanol Process ........................................... 6.20 Johnson Matthey Catalysts AGHR System............................................................................ 6.21 Davy Process Technology Improved Low Pressure Methanol Process .................................
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6.22 Compact Reformer ................................................................................................................. 6.23 DPT & JM Combined Reforming with Conventional Steam Methane Reformer Process ..... 6.24 DPT & JM Gas Heated Reformer plus Autothermal Reformer System ................................ 6.25 Davy Process Technology Series Loop.................................................................................. 6.26 Uhde Combined Autothermal Reformer (CAR®) ................................................................. 6.27 Uhde CAR® based Methanol Plant ....................................................................................... 6.28 Uhde 3 and 4 Column Distillation Section............................................................................. 6.29 Uhde Fuel Grade Distillation Section .................................................................................... 6.30 Lurgi MegaMethanol Process Autothermal Reforming......................................................... 6.31 Lurgi MegaMethanol Process Combined Reforming ............................................................ 6.32 Lurgi MegaMethanol Process Flow Diagram Reforming...................................................... 6.33 Lurgi MegaMethanol Process Flow Diagram – Methanol Synthesis and Distillation ........... 6.34 Lurgi Water- and Gas-Cooled Methanol Synthesis Reactor .................................................. 6.35 Lurgi Combined Converter Synthesis .................................................................................... 6.36 Flow Scheme of the MITSUBISHI Methanol Process .......................................................... 6.37 Process Flow Diagram of the MITSUBISHI Methanol Process............................................ 6.38 MITSUBISHI Superconverter................................................................................................ 6.39 Haldor Topsoe Methanol Production by One-step Reforming Process ................................. 6.40 Haldor Topsoe Methanol Production by Two-step Reforming Process................................. 6.41 Haldor Topsoe Methanol Production by Autothermal Reforming and Hydrogen Recycle Process ................................................................................................................................... 6.42 Haldor Topsoe Co-production of Methanol Process in Ammonia Plants .............................. 6.43 Methanol Casale Standard Methanol Process ........................................................................ 6.44 Methanol Casale IMC Converter ........................................................................................... 6.45 Methanol Casale Advanced Methanol Process ...................................................................... 6.46 Simplified Flow Diagram Methanol Casale Patent (EP 1,762, 555 A1)................................ 6.47 Schematic of Flow Diagram Haldor Topsoe Patent (U.S. 2006/0235090 A1) ...................... 6.48 Simplified Flow Diagram UOP Patent (U.S. 7,288,684 B1) ................................................. 6.49 Process Schematic - CHOREN Syngas Production from Biomass........................................ 6.50 LPMEOH™ Facility Integration into Existing Facilities....................................................... 6.51 “LPMEOH™ Facility” Simplified Process Flow Diagram.................................................... 6.52 LPMEOH™ Reactor Schematic ............................................................................................ 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 Methanol Delivered Cost to Western Europe (Rotterdam), 2007 .......................................... Methanol Delivered Cost to USGC (Houston), 2007............................................................. Methanol Delivered Cost to South-East Asia (Singapore), 2007........................................... Methanol Delivered Cost to North-East Asia (Yokohama), 2007 .........................................
6-45 6-47 6-48 6-53 6-57 6-59 6-61 6-62 6-68 6-69 6-70 6-71 6-72 6-74 6-76 6-77 6-78 6-82 6-83 6-85 6-86 6-88 6-89 6-91 6-94 6-96 6-99 6-102 6-108 6-109 6-110 7-10 7-10 7-11 7-11 A-3 A-6 A-9
A.1 Production Volume of Different Crude Oil Types................................................................. A.2 Crude Oil Price....................................................................................................................... A.3 Real Price of Crude Oil ..........................................................................................................
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A.4 Crude Oil Price Scenarios ...................................................................................................... A.5 U.S. Natural Gas, Fuel Oil and Crude Oil Prices ................................................................... A.6 West European Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, and Crude Oil Assumptions ..................................... A.7 World Economic Performance ............................................................................................... A.8 World Economic Performance and Medium Scenario Outlook............................................. A.9 North American Economic Growth ....................................................................................... A.10 South American Economic Growth ....................................................................................... A.11 West European Economic Growth......................................................................................... A.12 Central European Economic Growth ..................................................................................... A.13 Eastern European Economic Growth ..................................................................................... A.14 Middle Eastern Economic Growth......................................................................................... A.15 Asian Economic Growth ........................................................................................................ A.16 Japanese Economic Growth ................................................................................................... A.17 Chinese Economic Growth .................................................................................................... A.18 African Economic Growth .....................................................................................................
A-10 A-13 A-14 A-15 A-17 A-18 A-19 A-20 A-21 A-22 A-23 A-24 A-25 A-26 A-27
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3.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 5.1 5.2 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 Regional Natural Gas Prices for New Projects ...................................................................... LPG and DME Bottles Comparison....................................................................................... Methanol Capacity Additions (Excluding China), 2008 Onwards......................................... Chinese Methanol Capacity Additions, 2008 Onwards ......................................................... Comparison of Physical Properties ........................................................................................ Comparison of Gasoline Blending Properties ........................................................................ Typical Properties of Methanol.............................................................................................. United States Methanol Specifications .................................................................................. International Methanol Producers and Consumers Association Methanol Reference ........... Gasifier Types ........................................................................................................................ Gasifier Typical Characteristics(1) ........................................................................................ Syngas Compositions for Entrained-flow Gasifiers(1) .......................................................... Syngas Compositions for Moving and Fluid-Bed Gasifiers(1).............................................. Syngas Composition for Different Reforming Processes....................................................... Typical Syngas Compositions Including Coal Gasification...................................................
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6.10 Cooling Factors for Methanol Converters.............................................................................. 6.11 Typical Process Parameters of Uhde CAR® Configuration .................................................. 6.12 Jacobs Summary of Performance of Battery Limit Units ...................................................... 6.13 Operating and Design Parameters for Pre-Reforming and Autothermal Reforming of Lurgi MegaMethanol Process ................................................................................................
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6.14 Operating and Design Parameters for Methanol Converter of Lurgi MegaMethanol Process ................................................................................................................................... 6.15 Pre-Converter Effects on Methanol Synthesis ....................................................................... 6.16 Effect of Hydrogen Separation Unit on Production Capacity ................................................ 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 Installation Factors ................................................................................................................. 2007 Producer Gas Prices ...................................................................................................... Key Parameters for Methanol Shipping ................................................................................. Shipping Costs to Houston, Rotterdam, Singapore and Yokohama.......................................
6-73 6-93 6-95 7-2 7-5 7-8 7-8 A-5 A-11 A-16 B-1 C-1 C-1 C-2 C-2 C-3 C-3 C-4 C-4 C-5 C-5 D-1 E-1 E-3 E-4 F-1 F-1 F-2 F-2 G-1
A.1 Historical Crude Oil Prices .................................................................................................... A.2 Crude Oil Price Scenarios ...................................................................................................... A.3 Economic Growth and Medium Crude Oil Scenario Projections .......................................... B.1 C.1 C.2 C.3 C.4 C.5 C.6 C.7 C.8 C.9 The Development of Global Methanol Capacity, 2000-2007 ................................................ Methanol Supply/Demand Balance........................................................................................ Methanol Supply/Demand Balance........................................................................................ Methanol Supply/Demand Balance........................................................................................ Methanol Supply/Demand Balance........................................................................................ Methanol Supply/Demand Balance........................................................................................ Methanol Supply/Demand Balance........................................................................................ Methanol Supply/Demand Balance........................................................................................ Methanol Supply/Demand Balance........................................................................................ Methanol Supply/Demand Balance........................................................................................
C.10 Methanol Supply/Demand Balance........................................................................................ D.1 Major Methanol Consumers, 2007......................................................................................... E.1 E.2 E.3 F.1 F.2 F.3 F.4 Methanol Price History .......................................................................................................... Methanol Price Forecast......................................................................................................... Methanol Price Forecast......................................................................................................... Delivered Cost to Western Europe (Rotterdam), 2007 (U.S. dollars per ton)........................ Delivered Cost to USGC (Houston), 2007 (U.S. dollars per ton) .......................................... Delivered Cost to South East Asia (Singapore), 2007 (U.S. dollars per ton)......................... Delivered Cost to North East Asia (Yokohama), 2007 (U.S. dollars per ton) .......................
G.1 Cost of Production Process: Steam Methane Reforming Followed by Methanol Synthesis..
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