EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT MAY 2008
STOCKS & SALES:
160 140 120 100 80 60
STOCKS (DAYS OF SALE) SALES INDEX
BUSINESS REPORT ON FIRST 9 MONTHS 2008
BASED ON: DISMET MARKET MONITORING 40 SEPTEMBER 2007 – SEPTEMBER 2008
20
MARKET SCOPE: EU - 27
0
Ø Ø 2006 2007 MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR 2007 2008
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT NOVEMBER 2008
EUROMETAL IS PUBLISHING ON A QUARTERLY BASE BUSINESS REPORTS ON TRENDS AND CYCLES IN EUROPEAN STEEL DISTRIBUTION. THIS REPORT IS BASED ON DEVELOPMENTS IN SALES AND STOCKS IN STEEL DISTRIBUTION IN THE GLOBAL EU – 27 MARKET THIS BUSINESS REPORT HAS FOCUS ON THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2008 IT IS BASED ON MONTHLY SURVEYS AMONG MAJOR EUROPEAN STEEL, TUBES AND METALS DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES, MEMBERS OF DISMET WORKING GROUP. FURTHERMORE AND EXCEPTIONALLY IT INCLUDES A TENTATIVE OUTLOOK ON STEEL MARKETS AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRUNCH ALL COPYRIGHTS ARE WITH EUROMETAL AND DISMET.
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT NOVEMBER 2008
BUSINESS ACTIVITY OF EUROPEAN STEEL STOCKHOLDING DISTRIBUTION NOTICED A SLOW DOWN OF ACTIVITY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR 2007. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF 2008 SALES ACTIVITY RECOVERED AND DEVELOPPED AT A QUITE SATISFACTORY PACE . SALES OF 3.QUARTER DIVED DOWN DUE TO SUMMER SEASON BUT REMAINED HIGHER THAN ONE YEAR AGO. STEEL STOCKHOLDERS SALES DEVELOPPED AS FOLLOWS ( 1.QUARTER 2007 = 100):
105
102 100 97 91 88 1.Q. 07 2..Q. 07 3.Q. 07 4..Q. 07 1..Q 08
91 3.Q. 08
2.Q. 08
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF 2008, STOCKS OF STEEL STOCKHOLDERS IN EU-27 WERE IN LINE WITH THE DEVELOPMENTS OF SALES ACTIVITIES OF EUROPEAN STEEL DISTRIBUTION. IN 3.QUARTER 2008 STOCKS IN LONG STEEL PRODUCTS TURNED TO THE HIGH SIDE
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT MAY 2008
STOCKS & SALES:
160 140 120DISTRIBUTION SALES OF ALL STEEL PRODUCTS IN SEPTEMBER 2008 WERE BACK AT THE JULY 2008 LEVEL. 100 IN STEEL DISTRIBUTION THE STOCK INDEX OF ALL STEEL PRODUCTS DID NOT 80 INCREASE IN SEPTEMBER AND DID REMAIN AT JULY LEVEL GIVING INDICATION OF MUCH TIGHTER STOCK MANAGEMENT IN STEEL DISTRIBUTION 60 AS STOCKS OF SEPTEMBER DID REPRESENT A RATHER HIGH THREE MONTHS OF SALES 40 20 0
STOCKS (DAYS OF SALE) SALES INDEX
SEPTEMBER 2008
MARKET SCOPE: EU - 27
Ø Ø 2006 2007 MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR 2007 2008
NOTE: STOCKS ARE REPORTED IN DAYS OF SALE BASED ON A THREE MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE SALES INDEX: AVERAGE 1. QUARTER 2007 = 100 STOCK INDEX: AVERAGE 1.QUARTER 2007 = 100
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT NOVEMBER 2008
STOCKS & SALES:
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Ø Ø 2007 2008
94 75,3 76,7 102 94,8 75,1
ALL FINISHED STEEL PRODUCTS
SEPTEMBER SALES WERE BACK TO JULY LEVEL BUT LOWER THAN IN FIRST HALF 08
STOCKS (DAYS OF SALE) SALES INDEX
106,6
103,8
62,3 109,1 111,2
113 96,6
115,9 98,7
109,1 99,9
75,1 112,5
87,6 98,6
66,5
67,5
74,2 64,9 64,9 63,6
75
78,2 69,7
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP 2007 2008
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT NOVEMBER 2008
STOCKS & SALES:
160 140
LONG STEEL PRODUCTS
LONG STEEL PRODUCTS SALES ARE IN DOWNWARD TREND SINCE 2.QUARTER 2008
STOCKS (DAYS OF SALE) SALES INDEX
117,6
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Ø Ø 2007 2008
60,8 62,1 57,4 93,1 100,2 95,2
105,4 98,6 58,5 87
109,4 109,4 91,2
100,4
106,1 99,7 76,2 90,4 91,9 76,2
62,3 51 53,6 50,5 51,7 48,7
58,1
64,3 56,7
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP 2007 2008
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT NOVEMBER 2008
STOCKS & SALES:
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Ø Ø 2007 2008
95,3 79 102,8 96,0 79 80,7
FLAT STEEL PRODUCTS
3. QUARTER FLAT STEELSALES ARE DOWN COMPARED TO FIRST HALF OF 2008
STOCKS (DAYS OF SALE) SALES INDEX
109,8
111,6
61,1 120,7
112,8 114,6 100,8
116,0 97,9
112,6 98,6 80,4 69,5
74,2 115,2 90 97,6
70,7
68,5
67,8
67,3
74,7
78,5 67,1
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP 2007 2008
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REVIEW NOVEMBER 2008
STOCKS: ALL FINISHED STEEL PRODUCTS
SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE OF STOCK INDEX IN 2008 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP 2007 2008
75,1 66,5 67,5 64,9 64,9 96,8 105,5 104,5 102,3 109,1 104,3 106,3 101,6 111,1 109,2 107,2 110,2 112,5 109,5 87,6 74,2 63,6 75,0 78,2 69,7
STOCKS (DAYS OF SALE) STOCK INDEX
99,9
STOCKS EXPRESSED IN DAYS OF SALES ACCOUNT NOW FOR 3 MONTHS STOCK
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REVIEW NOVEMBER 2008
STOCKS: LONG STEEL PRODUCTS
LONGS STEEL STOCK INDEX HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RISEN DURING ALL 2008 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP 2007 2008
57,4 62,3 51 53,6 50,5 51,7 48,7 58,1 56,7 64,3 95,3 96 92,6 85,2 87 96,6 104,7 109 92,8 113,6 109,2 112,4 115,1 111,7
STOCKS (DAYS OF SALE) STOCK INDEX
90,4 76,2
STOCKS IN DAYS OF SALES HAVE TURNED TO AN OVERSTOCKING SITUATION
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REVIEW NOVEMBER 2008
STOCKS: SUBTOTAL (FLAT PRODUCTS)
FLAT STEEL PRODUCTS STOCK INDEX IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN EARLY 2008 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP 2007 2008
80,7 70,7 68,5 67,8 67,3 74,7 67,1 78,5 69,5 80,4 112,4 108,4 105,8
STOCKS (DAYS OF SALE) STOCK INDEX
101,1 120,7 103,1 103,4 104,6 103,0 105,8 100,4 102,8
107,6 115,2
106,3 90
STOCKS EXPRESSED IN DAYS OF SALES ARE NOW AT A HIGH THREE MONTHS LEVEL
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT NOVEMBER 2008
AN EDUCATED OUTLOOK ON LAST QUARTER 2008 AND FIRST QUARTERS 2009
EUROPEAN STEEL AFTER THE CREDIT CRUNCH
RIDE THE WAVES
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT NOVEMBER 2008
AN EDUCATED OUTLOOK ON LAST QUARTER 2008 AND FIRST QUARTERS 2009
EUROPEAN STEEL AFTER THE CREDIT CRUNCH
SAIL THE STORM
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT NOVEMBER 2008
MATURE ECONOMIES IN WESTERN EUROPE HAVE LOW AND EVEN NEGATIVE STEEL MARKET GROWTH.
WORLD RANKING STEEL MARKET SUPPLY 2001-2007, AVERAGE INCREASE PER YEAR: • CHINA • MIDDLE EAST • CIS • SOUTH AMERICA • OTHER ASIA • EU-27 • NAFTA + 26,3 % + 17,7 % + 7,5 % + 7,1 % + 5,3 % + 3,6 % + 0,9 %
STEEL MARKET SUPPLY 2001 – 2007 AVERAGE ANNUAL % INCREASE
FLAT GDP GROWTH SLOWS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 10,01%PLUS 8,01 –10,00% 6,01 - 8,00 % 4,51 – 6,00 % 3,01 – 4,50 % AND BRINGS LOWER STEEL MARKETS 1,51 – 3,00 % 0,00 – 1,50 % -0,01 – -3,00 -3,01 - -5,00 POLAND, ROMANIA,TURKEY, CZECH REPUBLIC, RUSSIA, AUSTRIA, SWEDEN, UKRAINE, SPAIN, OTHER EU-27, ITALY, GERMANY OTHER EU-15 BENELUX, FRANCE, UNIT. KINGDOM OTHER CIS
SOUTHERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL EUROPE ARE GROWING MARKETS.
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT NOVEMBER 2008
AS A CONSEQUENCE, ALREADY SINCE 2007 GROWTH RATES OF EUROPEAN REAL STEEL CONSUMPTION ARE DOWNDIVING. 2008 WILL BE NEGATIVE
= APPARENT CONSUMPTION + 4,2 % + 3,0% = REAL CONSUMPTION
2007
ESTIMATE 2008 - 0,8% -2,0%
FORECAST 2009
- 2,3%
- 2,1%
IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE CREDIT CRUNCH, REAL STEEL CONSUMPTION MIGHT TURN CLEARLY NEGATIVE IN 2009
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT NOVEMBER 2008
IN EUROPEAN UNION, THE MAIN STEEL USING SECTORS (CONSTRUCTION, AUTOMOTIVE, STRUCTURAL STEELWORKS AND MECHANICAL ENGINEERING) WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE GROWTH IN 2009
ESTIMATE 2008 FORECAST 2009
MECH.ENG.
3,01 – 3,50 % 2,51 – 3,00 % 2,01 – 2,50 %
SHIPYARDS METAL GOODS
1,51 – 2,00 % 1,01 – 1,50 % 0,51 – 1,00 % SHIPYARDS
AUTOMOTIVE WHITE GOODS
CONSTRUCTION STRUCT.STEELW. TUBES
0,01 – 0,50 % 0,00 – -0,50 % -0,51 – - 1,00 % -1,01– - 1,50 % -1,51– - 2,00 % -2,01– - 3,50 %
WHITE GOODS MECH.ENG. CONSTRUCTION
TUBES STRUCT.STEELW.
METAL GOODS
AUTOMOTIVE
EU STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENT OF MAIN STEEL USING SECTORS % CHANGE YEAR-ON-YEAR
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT NOVEMBER 2008
THE BOOM PARTY IS OVER ! STRONG SLOWDOWN OF OECD COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR
10-Oct-2008
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT NOVEMBER 2008
EVEN BEFORE THE FINANCIAL CRUNCH, STEEL SCRAP PRICES STARTED TO DIVE
HMS 1/2 Rotterdam
HMS1/USA
EU-EXPORT PRICE: HMS1, COMPOSITE PRICE FOB ROTTERDAM (USD/T) – SINCE 2006 HMS 1/2 (80:20) USA: HMS1, DELIVERED STEEL WORK, COMPOSITE PRICE (PITTSBURGH, CHICAGO) (USD/T)
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT NOVEMBER 2008
EU STEEL MARKETS: STEEL PRODUCERS REACTIVITY WILL BE TESTED AS MARKETS GET ROUGHER AND ROUGHER…
EU STEEL MARKET BALANCE THREATENED FROM BOTH DEMAND AS WELL AS SUPPLY SIDE • SERIOUS RISK OF LOW-PRICED IMPORTS FLOODING THE EU MARKET AS SUPPLIERS ELSEWHERE TRY TO FIND OUTLETS TO COMPENSATE FOR THEIR WEAKENING DOMESTIC MARKETS WHILE PLANNED PRODUCTION EXPANSIONS ARE COMING ON STREAM • DEMAND-SIDE FUNDAMENTALS LOOK WEAK FOR THE TIME BEING – BOTH IN THE EU AS IN INTERNATIONAL EXPORT MARKETS • SIGNALS ARE STRENGTHENING THAT ASIAN SUPPLIERS ARE CURRENTLY SWITCHING TO MORE AGGRESSIVE PRICING WHICH INCREASES THE PRICE GAP VIS-À-VIS EU MILLS • SO FAR, EU MILLS AND OTHER MILLS RESPONDED ADEQUATELY BY ANNOUNCING OF CLOSING TEMPORARILY CAPACITY
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT NOVEMBER 2008
READING THE SIGNS ON THE WALL: MAIN STEEL PRODUCERS HAVE ANNOUNCED PRODUCTION CUTS FOR THE NEXT MONTHS
EU – 27 AMERICAS CIS CHINA OTHER ASIA
ARCELORMITTAL: WORLDWIDE - 15 TO -30 % SEVERSTAL -30%
EVRAZ - ? % CORUS - 20 %
SEVERSTAL -30%
SEVERSTAL -25%
EVRAZ - 25 %
HEBEI -10-20 % BAOST. – 1 MT MAANSHAN -20 %
ISPAT -15 % JAPAN: ? %
NMLK -20-40 % ? MMK - 15 %
SIDENOR -20 % RIVA -12 % RIVA -12 % SCHMOBI -25 %
BALANCING STEEL SUPPLY AND STEEL DEMAND WILL BE KEY. HOPEFULLY MORE STEEL PRODUCERS TO FOLLOW IN NEXT WEEKS !
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT NOVEMBER 2008
RECENT CONSOLIDATIONS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MUCH LOWER AND SHORTER BUSINESS CYCLE VOLATILITIES THAN TEN YEARS AGO…SO THERE IS HOPE FOR A SOON RESTART OF THE STEEL CYCLE IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2009
AS SHARE PRICES HAVE TUMBLED DOWN, MORE CONSOLIDATION TO COME ? CONSOLIDATING PRODUCTION ? CONSOLIDATING DISTRIBUTION ? CONSOLIDATING STEEL USERS ? CONSOLIDATION HAS SEEN CONSIDERABLE STABILISATION IN STEEL PRICES AND OFFERS A SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STEEL DISTRIBUTORS AND CONSUMERS
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT NOVEMBER 2008
THE BASIC TREND OF STEEL MARKETS REMAINS GROWTH ORIENTED. MID TERM OUTLOOK OF STEEL DEMAND STAYS ON SOUND GROUND
KEY GROWTH REGIONS (CHINA, DEVELOPING ASIA, CIS, LATIN AMERICA) DEVELOPED MARKETS (EUROPE, N AMERICA, JAPAN) ROW (MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA, OCEANIA, NON-EU25 EUROPE) p.a. 4.7%
125 116 462
101
4.4% p.a.
406
55 347 266 1995
63 378
365 1031 798 560
319 2000 2005 2010 2015
EUROMETAL QUARTERLY BUSINESS REPORT NOVEMBER 2008
PER CAPITA STEEL DEMAND OF EMERGING ECONOMIES IS STILL HALF WAY FROM MATURE ECONOMIES EU AND USA . . . . . . LEAVING CONSIDERABLE SPACE FOR FUTURE GROWTH
1200 1000 800 600 400 200
31 202 207 82 90 400 409 601 969 978
STEEL CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA – KG/Y STEEL DEMAND IS EXPECTED TO GROW BY A MINIMUM OF 500 MT OVER NEXT 10 YEARS. CAPACITY EXPANSION TO MEET THIS DEMAND COULD BE ANOTHER CHALLENGING ISSUE TO BE ADRESSED IN FUTURE !
S. In A dia m So eric a ut h A fr ic a C IS C hi na
EU 25 U SA Ja pa Ta n iw an K or ea
0