Cell phones replace pagers

							           2009 Mid-year Business Education Meeting


       Back to the Future
       •What has been, we know!
       •What is today, we know!
       •What will be; model for anticipating the future.


Agenda:




Ryan Hamilton
Rob Baxter
      Technology adoption rates
           = 70% adoption

 Telephone               55 years
 Automobile              45 years
 Washer/Dryer            50 years
 Refrigerator            27 years
 Computer                18 years
 Internet                16 years
 Cell phone              12 years
 Social networks: MySpace, Facebook???
                20th century “achievements”

               Technology Advancements

Automotive industry           Computers
Air travel                    Robotics
Gas powered everything        Advanced Materials
Industrialization             Miniaturization
Nuclear Power                 Internet
Entry into space              Cell Phones
Moon landing                  Mobile Computing/wireless
Satellites                    Nanotechnology

              Who would have ever imagined??
              20th century “achievements”

                Medical Advancements

Antibiotics                   CT Scan
Cancer treatments:            MRI
    Chemotherapy             Ultrasonic diagnosis/treatment
    Radiation                Robotic medicines
    Target drug              Cloning
Organ Transplants             Gene Splicing
1970-1st heart transplant     Nanotechnology (medical)
Biotechnology                 Pandemic management


         Extending human healthy lifespan continuously
Technology: Cell phones replace pagers
        (Historical case study)
                 Indicators                     Status
Price of cell phones drops                      Yes
Reliability of calls increases                  Yes
Government blocks cell towers                   No
New cell phone Application (safety)             Yes
Cell phones cause health issues                 No
Cell phone become personal attire               Yes
Business adoption of cell phones                No
  Rapid transition from Pagers to Cell phone occurred
Environmental: shift away from Oil
        (20 year outlook)
                Indicators                      Status
Price of oil rises sharply                         Yes
Advance in battery technology                      Yes
Alternative powered cars increase                  Yes
Government incentives (get off oil)                Yes
World conflict decrease access to oil              Yes
Oil cartel fails, production increases             No
Disruptive technology emerges (H2O)                No
    Use indicators to substantiate likely outcome
 Group exercise: Assume 1995          20 year horizon
Technology: The Internet will become the primary
source of information for the public?
                Indicators                   Status
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 Team exercise                        5 year horizon
Technology: Cell Phones (multimedia handheld
device) will reduce laptop demand by 25% by 2014?
                 Indicators                 Status
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Team exercise                        20 year horizon
Education: Collaboration, social networking,
distance learning, and social networking will
replace 50% of the fixed classrooms by 2019?
                Indicators                    Status
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            Mid-year Business Education Meeting



Back to the Future: Summary
•What has been, we know!
•What is today, we know!
•What will be; model for anticipating the future.

Today’s session takeaway:
- “Change” is accelerating at unforeseen speeds
- Thought process to anticipate alternative outcomes
- Template to track indicators
- Simple and fun process to teach students
- Change offers exciting education and career opportunities
 Mid-year Business Education Meeting




Thanks for participating



Ryan Hamilton
Rob Baxter