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					       Urban Risk Management for Natural Disasters:
              Goals and Desired Outcomes


                                Arthur Lerner-Lam
                               Columbia University
                       Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
                      Center for Hazards and Risk Research



                            Urban Risk Management for
October 25-26, 2001                                          1
                                Natural Disasters
                      Workshop Rationale

   Urban vulnerability is a focus area for natural
    hazard studies.
     – Wealth and assets of urban centers are unique.
     – Fine-scaled interdependencies within cities require
       complex approaches.
     – Natural hazards are city-scale physically; country-
       or global-scale culturally, socially, politically.
   Cities represent important scale of decision-
    making, management, and response.
                          Urban Risk Management for
October 25-26, 2001                                      2
                              Natural Disasters
           Workshop Rationale (cont.)

   Turkish institutions have been exposed recently to
    disastrous earthquakes.
   Geo-dynamics and kinematics of deformation along
    the North Anatolian Fault system, both on-land and
    marine, are areas of intense national and
    international research interest.
   Some models of NAF deformation suggest enhanced
    earthquake probabilities near Istanbul.
   Uncertainties related to tectonics require basic
    research in geology and geophysics.


                      Urban Risk Management for
October 25-26, 2001                                  3
                          Natural Disasters
           Workshop Rationale (cont.)

   WTC disaster has shifted focus to “extreme events”.
   “Extreme events” are effectively one class of
    phenomena. Scale and scope have implicit
    relationship to national security.
   Mitigation for one type of extreme event may build
    resiliency for other types. Fundamentals of resiliency
    related to sustainability.
   Necessary to quantify probabilities and uncertainties
    for “worst possible”, not just “probable”.
   Worst-case outlook affects cost-benefit analysis of
    mitigation.
                      Urban Risk Management for
October 25-26, 2001                                          4
                          Natural Disasters
                      Desired Outcomes
   Principles and prototypes for science-based risk
    management for urban centers.
   Research agenda consistent with policy needs.
   Partnerships for research, education, and
    implementation.
   Implementation of risk management strategies
    incorporating:
     –   Worst-case scenarios
     –   Cost-benefit analysis
     –   Shifting tolerances
     –   Application to Istanbul pilot
     –   Portability to other localities
                            Urban Risk Management for
October 25-26, 2001                                     5
                                Natural Disasters
                      Discussion Goals

   Physical science and social science research
    agenda: near term and long term.
     – Probabilities, uncertainties, tolerances, cost-benefit
   Community-building for applications and
    implementation.
   Data sources and needs.
   Other resource needs.
   Impediments to research and education initiatives.
   Impediments to community interactions.


                         Urban Risk Management for
October 25-26, 2001                                             6
                             Natural Disasters
               Discussion Goals (cont.)
   Partnership models and opportunities
   Funding opportunities
   Education and outreach
     –   Formal and informal educational initiatives
     –   Joint degree programs, certificates
     –   Specific course opportunities
     –   Public awareness
   Technology transfer
     – Research/stakeholder interaction model
   Community interaction models
     – Mitigation
     – Emergency response
                          Urban Risk Management for
October 25-26, 2001                                    7
                              Natural Disasters
               Discussion Goals (cont.)
   Project focus areas
     – Pilot project
     – “vertical” integration (not “horizontal” geographic scope)
     – Participant commitment
   Partnership for Urban Risk Management
     – Structural and funding models
     – Scope, including data and resource needs
     – Membership, including agencies, NGO’s, academic,
       international
     – Portability
     – Information systems underlie communication
     – Interoperability standards for information sharing.

                         Urban Risk Management for
October 25-26, 2001                                                 8
                             Natural Disasters

				
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posted:3/21/2013
language:Latin
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