Iowa “Brain Drain” Issues
May 17, 2007
Issue #1: BRAIN DRAIN
• "Iowa suffers from an alarming brain drain: It loses more of its young, single, well-educated adults than any state except North Dakota. In search of bigger cities, hipper crowds and warmer weather, young Iowans flee in such numbers that demographers predict the state will face a drastic labor shortage within two decades."
(Los Angeles Times, 2/6/05)
•
Iowa experienced the second highest net out-migration rate of young, single, and college educated residents (only behind North Dakota) from 1995 to 2000.
(U.S. Census Bureau, 2000)
•
Iowa also experienced a net out-migration of its total population from 1995 to 2000, a trend sometimes referred to as total drain.
(U.S. Census Bureau, 2000)
•
Iowa’s border states exhibited all four different combinations of net domestic migration. Minnesota experienced total and brain in-migration, Wisconsin and Missouri experienced total in-migration and brain drain, Illinois experienced total drain and brain in-migration, and Nebraska and South Dakota experienced total and brain drain.
(U.S. Census Bureau, 2000)
•
Iowa is projected to have a 13.8 percent decrease in its 18-24 population from 2000 to 2025, the second largest decrease in the nation, only ahead of West Virginia.
(U.S. Census Bureau, 2000)
Iowa Net Migration by Degree Level from 1995 to 2000 (ages 22-29)
(U.S. Census Bureau, 2000)
• • • • • • •
Less Than High School: +5,020 High School: +1,539 Some College: -542 Associate Degree: -2,041 Bachelor’s Degree: -14,579 Graduate Degree: -2,323 Total: -12,926
Issue #2: WORKFORCE
• Iowa is projected to have between 1.69 million and 1.85 million working-age residents by 2012. But estimates show the state will have 1.89 million jobs, leaving a shortage of 39,000 to 199,600 workers.
(AP, 3/20/06)
•
"The baby boom generation (born 1946-1964) represents the largest percentage of the labor force. Many of the older baby boomers, who are currently in their mid to late fifties, have started to retire. This upcoming surge in baby boom retirements has many employers and government planners concerned that a widespread labor shortage will occur during the 2015 to 2025 period. These concerns are intensified by the fact that the age cohort just behind the baby boom generation—those roughly 20 to 35—is significantly smaller."
(IWD Brochure, 2004)
•
Iowa Industries Most Affected by Baby Boomers:
(IWD Report, 2005)
o Manufacturing o Public Administration o Educational Services •
o Transportation o Health Services o Construction
Existing Iowa Occupations Most Affected by Baby Boomers:
(IWD Report, 2005)
Airline Pilots & Navigators Management Analysts Special Education Teachers Photographers Teachers Aides Industrial Engineers Eligibility Clerks / Social Welfare Personnel & Labor Relations Managers o Postal Clerks o o o o o o o o • Iowa’s Targeted Industries for Growth:
(Battelle Memorial Institute Report, 2004)
o o o o o o o o o
Police & Detective Supervisors Plumbers, Pipefitters & Steamfitters Financial Managers Psychologists Social Workers Lawyers Education Administrators Elementary School Teachers Registered Nurses
o Biosciences o Advanced Manufacturing
o Information Technology o Entrepreneurialism
•
Iowa Industries with the Most Projected Growth, with Projected Growth in Job Openings from 2002 to 2012:
(IWD Report, 2005)
o Administrative and Support Services: 21,445 o Educational Services: 15,240 o Nursing and Residential Care Facilities: 13,980 o Ambulatory Health Care Services: 12,620 o Self-Employed and Unpaid Family Workers: 10,440 o Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, 9,375 o Food Services and Drinking Places: 8,610 o Insurance Carriers and Related Activities: 8,135 o Social Assistance: 8,055 o Specialty Trade Contractors: 7,970 o Truck Transportation: 7,470 o Hospitals: 5,795 o Wood Product Manufacturing: 5,470
o Internet Services Providers, Web Search Portals and Data Processing Services: 4,500 o Credit Intermediation and Related Activities: 4,385 o Transportation Equipment Manufacturing: 4,130 o Motor Vehicle Parts Dealers: 4,075 o General Merchandise Stores: 3,700 o Warehousing and Storage: 3,265 o Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods: 3,210 o Amusement, Gambling and Recreation: 3,210 o Management of Companies and Enterprises: 3,135 o Food and Beverage Stores: 3,110 o Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional and Similar Organizations: 2,990 o Building Material and Garden Equipment: 2,965
•
Iowa’s Fastest Growing Occupations, with Growth Rate:
(IWD Report, 2005)
o Medical Assistants: 4.8% o Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts: 4.3% o Medical Records and Health Information Technicians: 4.0% o Database Administrators: 4.0% o Computer Software Engineers, Applications: 3.9% o Physician Assistants: 3.9% o Home Health Aides: 3.8%
o Set and Exhibit Designers: 3.8% o Social and Human Services Assistants: 3.7% o Physical Therapists Assistants: 3.7% o Computer Systems Analysts: 3.5% o Personal and Home Care Aides: 3.5% o Philosophy and Religion Teachers: 3.4% o Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers: 3.4%
o Self-Enrichment Education Teachers: 3.4% o Physical Therapist Aides: 3.4% o Sales Managers: 3.3% o Residential Advisors: 3.3% o Computer and Information Systems Managers: 3.3% o Computer Software Engineers: 3.3% o Survey Researchers: 3.2% o Dental Hygienists: 3.2% •
o Training and Development Specialists: 3.1% o Dental Assistants: 3.1% o Respiratory Therapy Technicians: 3.1% o Art, Drama and Music Teachers, Postsecondary: 3.1% o Customer Service Representatives: 3.1% o Security Guards: 3.1% o Foreign Language and Literature Teachers, Postsecondary: 3.1%
Net Migration of Iowa Residents with College Degrees, Ages 22-29, from 1995-2000
(IWD Report, 2005)
o Health Diagnosing & Treating Practitioners: -2,459 o Computer Specialists: -1,990 o Primary, Secondary & Special Education Teachers: -1,682 o Financial Specialists: -1,524 o Business Operation Specialists: 1,503
o Advertising, Promotions, PR and Sales Managers: -1,227 o Other Management Occupations: -867 o Retail Sales: -805 o Sales Representatives, Services: 794 o Engineers: -729
Issue #3: WAGES
• According to new federal data, wages remain almost 19 percent behind the U.S. as a whole. They're also rising slower. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that Iowans made an average of $639 a week in the second quarter of 2006. That's $145 below the national average. Wages in Iowa climbed four-point-one percent from the second quarter of 2005 to the second quarter in 2006. The national average was 4.4 percent.
(AP, 2/9/07)
•
Bob Schutt of Iowa Workforce Development attributed Iowa's lower wage to the lack of big cities. He says wages in Iowa are comparable to the rural states to the west such as Nebraska, Kansas and South Dakota. But they're typically lower than the more urbanized states to the east.
(AP, 2/9/07)
Average Annual Salaries in the Midwest: • Iowa: $32,340 o o o o o o Colorado: $40,280 Illinois: $39,290 Kansas: $33,960 Indiana: $34,080 Michigan: $40,040 Minnesota: $40,340 o o o o Missouri: $34,660 Nebraska: $33,310 South Dakota: $29,170 Wisconsin: $35,660
(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2005)
Issue #4: TOURISM/ENTERTAINMENT
• IOWA TOURISM SPENDING: o In FY2001, Iowa’s tourism budget was $6.1 million. In FY2007, it is $3.5 million.
(Travel Industry Association, 2007)
o With a $3.5 million budget, Iowa ranks 47th among all states in state tourism funding. An appropriation bill now on its way to the governor would increase Iowa's tourism funding by $250,000, earmarked for regional tourism funding. That and the additional $1 million for advertising would move the state up to 43rd in funding.
(Des Moines Business Record, 4/28/07)
•
ILLINOIS TOURISM SPENDING: o Illinois' (tourism) budget was $47 million last year.
(Des Moines Business Record, 4/28/07)
•
MINNESOTA TOURISM SPENDING: o Governor Tim Pawlenty included an increase in funding for Explore Minnesota as part of his 2008/2009 biennial budget released last week. The budget recommendation includes a $1 million increase in the base to $9.7 million in FY 2008 and $1 million in public private enhancement funding.
(ExploreMinnesota.com, 1/31/07)
State Tourism Budgets Midwestern States FY2007 (in millions)
$49.0
$17.8
$15.0 $10.5 $9.4 $6.3 $4.5 $3.5
IL
MO
WI
MN
SD
N E
K S
IA
Issue #5: POPULATION
Population Totals in the Midwest: • Iowa: 2,926,324 o Illinois: 12,419,293 o Kansas: 2,688,418 o Minnesota: 4,919,479 Total “Never Married” (Single) Population: • Iowa: 579,279 o Illinois: 2,804,684 o Kansas: 505,452 o Minnesota: 1,083,369 o Missouri: 1,095,920 o Nebraska: 346,102 o Wisconsin: 1,153,197 o Missouri: 5,595,211 o Nebraska: 1,711,263 o Wisconsin: 5,363,675
Iowa Population: 1900 to 2004 (U.S. Census Bureau)
3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Population
Iowa Population Projections: 1900 to 2030 (U.S. Census Bureau)
3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Population
Issue #6: RURAL BRAIN DRAIN
Young educated people tend to be moving to cities, while young people without a college education tend to be moving to rural areas. This suggests that the rural nature of Iowa is one reason why the state is experiencing brain drain.
(Iowa Civic Analysis Network, Oct. 2006)
Iowa Percent Metropolitan Population: 1950 to 2003 (U.S. Census Bureau)
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2003 Percent M etropolitan
Percent of Iowa Workers by County of Work: 1960 to 2000 (U.S. Census Bureau)
100
80
60
Insid county e
40 O utsid county e 20
0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000