# Slide 1 - Teach America

Document Sample

```					                   Background Traffic
and Trends
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What is Background Traffic?
• Expected increase
–from overall growth
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–traffic from other developments
• But not the one you’re analyzing
Background Traffic

• Manual method
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–Traffic trend analysis

• FSUTMS
–Background traffic is a
result of modeling effort
Trend Analysis
• Historical data for at
least the last five
years
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• Check for major
transportation
changes
– Which change capacity
and attract new trips
• Check for major
development changes
(St. Joe – Panhandle)
Different Types of
Trends
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• Linear growth
• Geometric growth
• Declining growth
Some Historical Volumes

Year   Volume
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1997    12,300
1998    12,000
1999    13,500
1998    13,220
1997    13,000
1996    13,775
1997    14,125
1998    15,000
1999    14,000
2000    15,000
2001    15,600
2002    15,300
2003    16,500
2004    15,900
2005    16,500
Linear Growth
• Based on a straight line
developed from historic traffic
growth
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– Assumes constant growth
– Does not consider capacity
restraint
– Constant land use growth over
time
Linear Growth

Future = Rate (Year) + Existing
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y

y = mx + b

x
For areas experiencing consistent growth
Geometric Growth
• Based on constant
percentage of growth from
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previous year
– Most applicable with available
capacity and exploding growth
Geometric Growth
Future = Existing (1 + Rate) Number of years
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y           y = y0 (1 + r)n

x
For areas experiencing high growth and less capacity restraint
Declining Growth
• Based on declining rate of growth
– Dense urbanized areas
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– Remember: even fast growth areas
eventually slow (built out)
Declining Growth
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Capacity

y

y = y0 +
      X
1
+
X + X. . .
2   3
X
n
x
For areas approaching build out and maturity
Results Comparison
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24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000

2008
1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2010
1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Linear                 Geometric
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i
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Write it down
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With the Traffic DVD In
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• Trend-V02_XML.xls
Enable the Macros
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```
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