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Biofuels Think outside the Barrel - Khosla Ventures

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					Biofuels: Think Outside the Barrel


              Vinod Khosla
             Khosla Ventures
               March 2007

                                 1
      Implausible Assertions?
We don’t need oil for cars & light trucks

We definitely don’t need hydrogen!

We don’t need new car/engine designs/distribution

Rapid changeover of automobiles is possible!

Little cost to consumers, automakers, government

                                                    2
    Energy Balance: Not Your Father’s Ethanol

                 Different corn ethanol production
                 methods have different emissions

                  Typical corn ethanol production
                  reduces carbon emissions 20%


               Cellulosic ethanol can achieve dramatic
                     greenhouse gas reductions
                      …even negative emissions

                                                         3
Source: NRDC
                               Why Now?
                      Projected World Oil Prices (EIA)




                      Alternative Technology Viability Zone




                                                              4
Source: EIA Reports
               Brazil sugar-cane/ethanol learning curve
Liters of ethanol produced per hectacre since between 1975 to 2004



        Rendimento Agroindustrial – Brasil                                                  30,000??
                (em litros de álcool hidratado equivalente por hectare)
6500
6000
                                                                                     5931
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
                                                              +3,77% aa em 29 anos
2000          2024

1500
   75
   77
   79
   81
   83
   85
   87
   89
   91
   93
   95
   97
   99
   01
   03
 19
 19
 19
 19
 19
 19
 19
 19
 19
 19
 19
 19
 19
 20
 20



                Fonte: Datagro
08 Nov 2005                      Nastari / Datagro @ Proálcool 30 anos               11
                                                                                                       5
       Technology Progression
                                 Synthetic Biorefinery

                 Gasification


   Many companies, multiple solutions
                                   ?
       …all improving trajectory
Corn

                                 Algae



         Cellulosic Bioethanol
                                                         6
Energy Crops: Miscanthus
   1 years growth without replanting!


       Little water, little
      fertilizer, no tillage,
        lots of biomass,

         ….energy crops
         make it possible
                20 tons/acre? (www.bical.net)
    10-30 tons/acre (www.aces.uiuc.edu/DSI/MASGC.pdf)   7
                           Large Improvements Are Visible
                                          Ethanol Yields Up & Up & Up
                                                                                               Conservative Cellulosic
                   3,500                                                                       (24tpy/108gpt)

                   3,000

                   2,500       Sugar Cane + Baggasse            Brazil Energy Cane
Gallons per acre




                               (11 tpy/102gpt)
                   2,000
                                                               Cellulosic (10tpy/100gpt)
                   1,500
                              Corn, Cellulose,
                   1,000       Cane Today

                    500
                                                                            Biodiesel
                      0
                       2000        2005      2010      2015          2020       2025    2030        2035
                                                              Time

                                                                                                               8
                            Even Failure is Success!
                                 Gasoline Demand Ethanol Production
                                 Gasoline Demand & Ethanol Production
                      250
                      250


                      200
                      200
                             50% less ethanol per acre             Gasoline Demand, Area
                                                                   Gasoline Demand, Area
                                                                    Production Total Eth.
            Gallons
Billions of Gallons




                                                                   Ethanol Production, Area
                                                                    Gals (Billions)
                      150
                      150    and we only eliminate our             Gasoline Demand (1%)
                                                                   Gasoline Demand (1%)
                                                                    Ethanol Gal)
                                                                   (Billions Prod. Gas. Eq
                                                                   (Billions Gal)

                      100
                      100
                                 gasoline imports!                  Gals (Billions)
                                                                   Ethanol Prod. Gas. Gals
                                                                   Ethanol Prod. Gas. EqEq
                                                                   Gals (Billions)
                                                                   (Billions)
                                                                    Gasoline Total Eth. Gals
                                                                   Production Demand (1%)
                                                                   Production Total Eth.
                                                                    (Billions
                                                                   (Billions) Gal)
                                                                   Gals (Billions)
                      50
                      50


                       0
                       0
                                                             26
                                                             26
                        1



                             6




                                       11



                                                   16



                                                        21




                                            Year
                                                                                               9
         A Darwinian IQ Test?
• Feed mid-east terrorism or mid-west farmers?

• Import expensive gasoline or use cheaper ethanol?

• Create farm jobs or mid-east oil tycoons?

• Fossil fuels or green fuels?

• ANWR oil rigs or “prairie grass” fields?

• Gasoline cars or cars with fuel choices?
                                                      10
DOE Funded Companies




                       11
                             The Near Future…
                                                                       Glycerin
Natural Oils                   Transesterification
                                                                       BioDiesel (FAME or
                                                                             FAEE)
                                     Methanol/Ethanol                                         Ethanol, Butanol,
                                                                                              Renewable Petroleum
                                    Fermentation                                              FermDiesel
                                                                     ETG via catalysis        Biogasoline
Sugars/
                                 Catalytic Conversion                                         Dimethylfuran
Starch
                                   Catalysis and Aqueous phase Reforming                      Gasoline, Diesel,
                                                                                              Hydrocarbons


  Algae                      + Sunlight –            Cell     Hydrocracking         BioDiesel (FAME or FAEE)
                             CO2                     Mass
                                                                                                               Ethanol
                                                                                         Fermentation
                                                                                                               Butanol
                Cellulose/              Acid or Enzyme           Saccharification        C6, C5
               Hemicellulose            Hydrolysis                                       Sugars                Diesel
                  Mixalco          Mixed Higher
                  Process          Alcohol
Biomass                                                              Syngas
                 Microbial                                                                        Ethanol
                                   Methane                           Fermentation
                 cultures

                Gasification       Syngas

                                                            Fischer-Tropspch                      BTL Diesel
                                                            catalysis
                                                                                                            12
 Waste
                                                                 Biodiesel
                               The Near Future…
                                                                  Glycerin
Natural Oils                     Transesterification
                                                     Ethanol – Sugar
                                                                  BioDiesel (FAME or

                                       Methanol/Ethanol
                                                       Fermentation FAEE)
                                                                                     Ethanol, Butanol,
                                                                                     Renewable Petroleum
                                      Fermentation                                   FermDiesel
                                                       Dimethylfuran – via catalysis
                                                                   ETG                        Biogasoline
Sugars/
Starch
               Feed                Catalytic Conversion
                                                             Catalysis
                                                                                              Dimethylfuran

               Cost                                Gasoline/Diesel –
                                                Aqueous Reforming
                                     Catalysis and Aqueous phase Reforming                   Gasoline, Diesel,
                                                                                             Hydrocarbons

                                                       Biodiesel - Algae
  Algae                        + Sunlight –            Cell       Hydrocracking       BioDiesel (FAME or FAEE)
                               CO2                     Mass
                                              Ethanol – Cellulose
                                                                                                              Ethanol
                                         Hydrolysis Fermentation                        Fermentation

                Cellulose/
                Hemicellulose             Acid or Enzyme
                                          Fermdiesel,              Saccharification
                                                              Butanol                    C6, C5
                                          Hydrolysis                                       Gevo
                                                                                         Sugars
                    Mixalco          Mixed Higher
                    Process          Alcohol
Biomass                                     Methane – Microbial Syngas
                   Microbial                           Cultures                                   Ethanol
                                    Methane                     Fermentation
                   cultures
                                    Feedstock  Ethanol – Syngas
                  Gasification      Syngas        Fermentation
                                      Supply   Biodiesel, Ethanol –
                                                      Fischer-Tropspch
                                      Volume FT and Catalysis
                                                      catalysis
                                                                                                 BTL Diesel
                                              Higher Alcohols –                                             13
 Waste                                                  Increasing Technological
                                                Mixalco ProcessDifficulty
14
15
16
17
18
Potential of Synthetic Biology
       Synthetic Biology = Fermentation DieselX
       Synthetic Biology       Anti-Malarial
                            Fermentation Diesel




             Gene 1
                  3
             Gene 2
             Gene
          Gene 1 4



         Source of genes       Custom-Built Microbe
   Recombinant Small Molecule Bio-Synthetic Pathway
                     Artimisinin
                                                      19
20
   Disruptive Technology in a
   Large Established Market

                                                Industrial
                                                Synthetic
                                                 Biology

Industrial Biotechnology    Synthetic Biology




                                                Renewable
                                                         TM
                                                Petroleum
                                                 Biofuels
       Benefits of            Benefits of
Petroleum-Derived Fuels    Renewable Biofuels
                                                              21
Butanol, the old fashioned way…




                              22
Gevo Metabolic Engineering Approach

   Biomass
  Hydrolysate


                                          BUTANOL

                                           CO2
                                          ethanol
                                        lactate
                                      acetone
  A recombinant strains            formate
  containing a butanol pathway   hydrogen
  produces butanol in addition     .
                                   .
  to other products.               .
                                                    23
Gevo Metabolic Engineering Approach

   Biomass
  Hydrolysate




                                 BUTANOL
  Classical and genetic
  techniques are used to
  improve butanol tolerance.



                                      24
           Cellulosic Status
• DOE : Six “worthy” biorefinery grants

• Multiple demo plants under construction

• President sets 35b gallon goal!
  Various technologies, feedstocks and

 geographies in play

• Question is no longer if but “PRICE”
                                            25
…and this is just the beginning



…imagine the map in 2017!

                              26
...replaced all 300 Billion lbs of plastics ?
      …how much land would it take?




                                                27
Oil Refinery Concept




                       28
Bio-Refinery Concept




                       29
                Twelve Platform Chemicals


Succinic Acid       FDCA          3-HP       Aspartic Acid




 Glucanic Acid Glutamic Acid   Itaconic Acid Levulinic Acid




    3-HDL        Glycerol       Sorbitol         Xylitol


                                                           30
                 Hieroglyphic Writings…
A version of graphic representation of    A specimen of an Egyptian language writing
“Top 12 DOE platform chemicals from glucose”

      O                            O                 O          O
                 OH                             HO                  OH
 HO                   HO               OH
             O                                              NH2

             O
 HO                       HO               O      HO            OH
                 OH
      O    NH2                     O                       OH

          OH OH            O                         OH OH OH
                                           OH
                      HO
      OH OH OH                         O                 OH OH OH

      O                                              O    OH OH
                 OH   O                    O
                                                                     OH
                               O                HO
             O        HO                   OH            OH OH O


                      ca. 2000 A.D.                                             ca. 530 B.C.
                                                letters  syllables  words  poems            31
…bottled water renewable???




                              32
                               HO            OH               O               O
     O                OH
H
                                                                          O
                  O
                      n
                                1,3-propanediol

                                              hydrogenation                EEP

    poly(hydroxypropionate)
                                    HO             OH

                                              O
                                                                                  NH2
                oxidation                                         CH2
                               3-hydroxypropionic acid
                                                                              O


                                              dehydration
      HO                  OH

                                                   OH                   acrylamide
            O         O              CH2
                                               O
         malonic acid
                                         acrylic acid
                                                                                        33
3-HP Derivatives




                   34
             Succinic Acid as a Platform
             Polyurethanes        Polycarbonate/PBT Blends
                                                                             Nylon


Polycarbonates
                                                    TPE’s      Adipic Acid           Hexanediamine
                                    PBT
Aliphatic
Polyesters                                                                    N-Methyl Pyrolidone
                              1,4-Butanediol         THF
                                                                                Solvents

       New                                                                     Crop
                                                                              Growth
                                 Succinic Acid
                                                                             Promoters


                                                                 Salt
                                                             Replacements
                 Sources: MBI, Zeikus, et.al 1999; Sado, et.al, 1980; Dake, et.al. 1987        35
Succinic Acid Derivatives




                            36
               Lactic Acid As a Platform
              Polyurethanes          Epoxides      TPE’s
                                                           Polyacrylic Acid

Polycarbonates
                               Propylene Oxide                                Resins

                                                       Acrylic Acid
 Polyesters
                       Propylene Glycol
       PLA                                                            Lactate Esters
                                                                      Solvents

       New
                                Lactic Acid                     Chiral Synthons



                                                               High             Amino Acids
                                                           Performance
                                           Food                               Pharmaceutical
                                                            Materials
                                           Additives                            Precursors

                                                                                       37
PLA Derivatives

      OH

                O


           OH




                    38
Levulinic Acid Derivatives




                             39
    DuPont Sorona polymer; part of polymer is 1,3-propanediol from fermentation
                                                                     HO                    OH




                                   DuPont Sorona
                                   http://www.dupont.com/corp/news/daily
DuPont Sorona
                                   /images/dn_photo_sorona270x270.jpg
http://www.azom.com/images/dn_ph
oto_swim229x275.jpg




                                                                           DuPont Sonona
                                                                           http://www.jobwerx.com/images/DuPont_sorona_apparel.jp
                                                                           g
                                                                                                                           40
              …biases
…hybrids good
…corn ethanol bad
…biodiesel good
…nuclear bad




                        41
                   Hybrid       Corn ethanol

Carbon reduction   20-30%       20-30%

Cost               $5000        $50

Scalability        Battery      Cellulosic
                   breakthrough breakthrough
Impact to          High         Low
automakers
Oil reduction      20-30%       90%
                                               42
             …biodiesel relevance
                   Biodiesel   Ethanol

Carbon reduction   80%         20-305
2006
Carbon reduction   80%         80%
2010
Scalability        600         2500
Gallons/acre
Quality            Poor        Good

Cost               High        Med-Low

Sustainability     Poor        High
2010
                                         43
A Change of Paradigm
                         Old                      New
             Catalyst    Heavy Metals             ● Enzymes
                                                  ● Organisms
                                                  ● Selective catalysts

      Solvent System     Organic                  Water

  Raw Material Source    Petroleum                Renewable

     Harmful Impacts     ● Environment            Low to no negative
                         ● People                    impacts

      Production Risk    Higher inherent risk     Lower inherent risk
                            ● Pressure
                            ● Temperature

              Energy     Petroleum based          Renewable energy

             _______     Rigid discipline silos   Cross discipline team

        Sustainability   Who cares?               A New Attribute         44
Biomass, Geopolitics & Poverty




             Biomass & Poverty
                   Belt




                                 45
…or get to work

vk@khoslaventures.com



                   46
               a renewable universe…




vinod khosla, vk@khoslaventures.com
                                      47
               Nanostellar                     Stion
                 Codon                         Ausra
                  Praj
                                                        Great
    Quos                                                 Point
   NanoH2o                                              Energy

                             Tools   Solar
                                          Wind
                  Water                     Natural
                                     Coal    Gas
Segetis         Plastics  Materials        Homes        Living Homes
Newco 3                      Efficiency                 Global Homes
                    Corn/    Oil
                 Sugar Fuels          Efficiency

                           Cellulosic Future
                                       Fuels

    Altra                                              Transonic
    Cilion                                                GIV
  Hawaii Bio                                             Seeo
               Mascoma                         LS9      Newco2
               Celunol                        Gevo
                Range                        Amyris                    48
               Coskata                       Lanza

				
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