Quinnipiac University Polling Institute

Maurice Carroll, Director, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute (203) 582-5201 Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: JUNE 11, 2008 OBAMA GAINS AMONG WHITES TO BURY McCAIN IN NEW YORK, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; MORE OPPOSE CLINTON AS OBAMA RUNNING MATE Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the likely Democratic presidential nominee, has pulled even among white voters with Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican contender, and now tops Sen. McCain 50 – 36 percent in New York State, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Obama gets 42 percent of white votes, to 43 percent for Sen. McCain. Black voters back the Democrat 87 – 6 percent. Obama leads 59 – 29 percent among voters under age 45 and 45 – 40 among voters over 45; 45 – 40 percent among men and 53 – 32 percent among women. This compares to a 47 – 39 percent Obama lead over McCain in an April 18 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, when New York Sen. Hillary Clinton still was in the race. In that survey, white voters backed McCain 48 – 38 percent. In this latest survey, New York State voters say 48 – 42 percent that Obama should not pick Sen. Clinton as his running mate. Democrats support the idea 53 – 35 percent, while Republicans oppose it 62 – 27 percent and independent voters oppose it 53 – 41 percent. Clinton on the Democratic ticket would help Obama, voters say 46 – 27 percent. Republicans split 34 – 33 percent, while Democrats say 61 – 19 percent and independent voters say 37 – 33 percent that Clinton helps. “Our favorite daughter, Sen. Hillary Clinton, won‟t be on top of the ballot, but New York is still solidly blue. Sen. Barack Obama wins in a walk. He pulls even with Sen. John McCain among white voters. And he mesmerizes the young. In the 18-to-44 age bracket, he blows McCain away,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. -more- Quinnipiac University Poll/June 11, 2008 – page 2 New York State voters give Obama a 55 – 28 percent favorability, compared to 44 – 38 percent for McCain. Obama cares about their needs and problems voters say 62 – 28 percent. They split on McCain, with 46 percent saying he doesn‟t care and 44 percent saying he does. McCain‟s age will not affect their vote, 70 percent say, while 25 percent say it makes them less likely to vote for the Republican. Obama‟s race won‟t affect their vote, 85 percent say, while 10 percent say it makes them more likely to vote for the Democrat. “Some Republicans call Obama „elitist,‟ but New Yorkers find him sympathetic. McCain, with a lifetime in government – first the Navy, then Congress – comes up narrowly negative on that measure,” Carroll said. “You have to be careful when you ask about prejudices. Do people tell the truth? Still, New Yorkers tell us, heavily, they‟re not prejudiced because of McCain's age, and, overwhelmingly, they're not prejudiced because of Obama's race.” The economy is the single most important issue in their presidential vote, 46 percent of voters say, while 24 percent list the war in Iraq and 12 percent list health care. In fact, 76 percent of New York State voters describe the state‟s economy as “not so good” or “poor.” That includes 84 percent of upstate voters, 66 percent of New York City voters and 75 percent of suburban voters. The economy will get worse in the next year, 46 percent of voters say, while 14 percent say it will get better and 36 percent say it will stay the same. “No change. On issues, the old slogan holds: It‟s the economy, stupid,” Carroll said. Bush Approval New York State voters disapprove 76 – 20 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing. Even Republicans split 47 – 47 percent. This ties the findings in a March 27 Connecticut survey as the lowest mark for President Bush in any Quinnipiac University poll since he became President. From June 3 – 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,388 New York State voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 2 1. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 50% 36 2 5 8 Rep 17% 73 1 2 7 Dem 74% 14 1 4 6 Ind 48% 34 2 5 11 Men 45% 40 3 5 8 Sub 43% 43 1 4 8 Wom 53% 32 2 4 9 Age 18-44 59% 29 2 4 5 Wht 42% 43 2 4 8 Age 45+ 45% 40 2 5 9 Blk 87% 6 1 6 UpState..... Urban Othr Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 44% 35 4 3 14 40% 42 3 7 9 UpState Total NYC 40% 40 3 6 10 65% 25 1 3 6 TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jun 11 2008 Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 50 36 2 5 8 Apr 18 2008 47 39 2 3 9 Mar 21 2008 49 38 2 3 8 Oct 3 2007 47 39 3 4 8 Jun 20 2007 48 33 3 4 12 Apr 5 2007 47 36 2 3 12 Feb 14 2007 46 35 2 3 14 2. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 53% 40 4 3 28% 62 4 5 77% 18 4 2 44% 48 4 4 41% 52 4 3 Sub 49% 47 2 2 64% 29 3 4 Age 18-44 50% 41 5 4 51% 43 4 2 Age 45+ 56% 39 3 2 61% 30 2 7 UpState..... Urban Othr Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 58% 31 8 3 51% 44 4 2 UpState Total NYC 52% 41 5 2 58% 33 3 6 TREND: Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Jun 11 Apr 18 Mar 21 Dec 17 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 53 40 4 3 48 45 5 2 53 40 5 3 53 34 9 3 58 37 3 2 59 34 5 2 58 35 4 3 3 3. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 55% 28 14 3 30% 49 20 1 73% 14 10 3 57% 24 16 3 56% 31 11 2 Sub 48% 35 15 2 54% 26 17 3 Age 18-44 66% 22 9 2 47% 34 16 3 Age 45+ 49% 31 18 2 84% 2 12 2 UpState..... Urban Othr Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 56% 24 19 2 46% 35 18 2 UpState Total NYC 47% 32 18 2 69% 18 10 3 TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jun 11 Apr 18 Mar 21 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 55 28 14 3 50 31 18 1 56 25 17 2 54 20 24 3 48 17 33 2 48 12 38 1 44 9 46 1 4. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 44% 38 15 3 76% 11 12 1 24% 58 16 2 46% 34 16 3 52% 33 13 3 Sub 53% 30 15 3 37% 42 17 3 Age 18-44 42% 39 17 1 49% 34 13 3 Age 45+ 46% 38 13 3 25% 51 20 3 UpState..... Urban Othr Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 43% 35 18 4 44% 39 14 2 UpState Total NYC 44% 38 15 3 38% 43 15 3 TREND: Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jun 11 Apr 18 Mar 21 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 44 38 15 3 46 36 15 3 49 31 18 3 49 28 20 3 40 33 25 2 47 23 27 2 48 24 26 2 4 5. Do you think that Barack Obama should choose Hillary Clinton to be his vicepresidential running mate or not? Tot Yes No DK/NA 42% 48 11 Rep 27% 62 11 Dem 53% 35 12 Ind 41% 53 6 Men 32% 57 11 Sub 34% 49 17 Wom 51% 39 10 Age 18-44 54% 40 6 Wht 38% 51 12 Age 45+ 34% 53 13 Blk 58% 33 9 UpState..... Urban Othr Yes No DK/NA 36% 46 18 40% 53 7 UpState Total NYC 39% 52 9 50% 42 7 6. Do you think having Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket for vice-president would help or hurt Obama's chances of winning the presidential election, or wouldn't it make a difference? Tot Help Hurt Wldnt make a diff DK/NA 46% 27 21 6 Rep 34% 33 28 6 Dem 61% 19 15 5 Ind 37% 33 23 7 Men 38% 33 22 7 Sub 35% 31 28 5 Wom 53% 21 21 4 Age 18-44 46% 26 25 4 Wht 45% 31 17 7 Age 45+ 46% 27 19 7 Blk 46% 16 30 7 UpState..... Urban Othr Help Hurt Wldnt make a diff DK/NA 42% 21 35 2 47% 33 14 6 UpState Total NYC 46% 31 18 5 53% 20 20 6 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve Disapprove DK/NA 66% 28 5 43% 51 6 87% 9 4 63% 32 5 58% 37 5 Sub 63% 32 6 73% 21 5 Age 18-44 71% 25 3 62% 33 5 Age 45+ 63% 31 6 80% 8 11 UpState..... Urban Othr Approve Disapprove DK/NA 61% 32 7 60% 36 5 UpState Total NYC 60% 35 5 76% 18 5 5 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 11 Apr 17 Mar 24 Dec 12 Oct 2 Dec 14 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2006 2001 Approve Disapprove DK/NA 66 28 5 62 31 8 64 29 7 64 29 7 65 30 5 72 23 5 38 30 33 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve Disapprove DK/NA 20% 76 4 47% 47 6 6% 92 2 13% 81 7 21% 74 6 Sub 23% 75 2 19% 78 3 Age 18-44 19% 79 3 23% 74 4 Age 45+ 21% 74 5 12% 83 5 UpState..... Urban Othr Approve Disapprove DK/NA 17% 78 5 21% 74 5 UpState Total NYC 20% 75 5 17% 78 5 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? * also 82% on 10/2/01 Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 11 Apr 18 Mar 21 Dec 17 Jun 20 Nov 14 Jun 11 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2001 * 2008 Approve Disapprove DK/NA 20 76 4 22 73 4 21 74 4 22 73 5 24 71 5 82 15 3 20 76 4 6 19. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS) Tot Terrorism The war in Iraq The economy Illegal immigration Health care SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) DK/NA 8% 24 46 5 12 3 2 Rep 17% 19 44 9 7 3 1 Dem 4% 28 47 1 14 3 2 Ind 7% 20 48 6 13 3 2 Men 9% 23 47 7 9 4 2 Sub 9% 21 40 7 16 5 2 Wom 8% 24 45 4 15 2 2 Age 18-44 8% 21 49 4 13 2 2 Wht 9% 23 47 6 10 3 2 Age 45+ 9% 25 43 6 11 4 2 Blk 5% 25 41 2 20 3 3 UpState..... Urban Othr Terrorism The war in Iraq The economy Illegal immigration Health care SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 7% 18 54 2 14 2 2 7% 23 47 7 12 3 2 UpState Total NYC 7% 22 48 6 12 2 2 9% 28 46 4 9 3 2 TREND: Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year - terrorism, the war in Iraq, the economy, illegal immigration, or health care? Jun 11 2008 Terrorism The war in Iraq The economy Illegal immigration Health care SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) DK/NA 8 24 46 5 12 3 2 Apr 18 2008 9 24 44 7 12 2 2 Mar 21 2008 9 22 47 4 13 2 3 20. Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No DK/NA 62% 28 10 44% 47 9 79% 11 10 59% 29 12 59% 31 9 Sub 55% 35 11 64% 24 11 Age 18-44 72% 22 6 56% 33 11 Age 45+ 57% 30 13 91% 1 8 UpState..... Urban Othr Yes No DK/NA 62% 29 10 53% 34 14 UpState Total NYC 54% 33 13 76% 17 7 7 21. Would you say that John McCain cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No DK/NA 44% 46 10 69% 22 8 28% 64 8 44% 42 14 50% 41 9 Sub 45% 46 9 39% 49 12 Age 18-44 44% 49 7 50% 39 11 Age 45+ 44% 44 12 25% 65 10 UpState..... Urban Othr Yes No DK/NA 47% 47 6 47% 40 13 UpState Total NYC 47% 42 11 39% 51 10 22. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72. Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference? Tot More likely Less likely Doesn't make diff DK/NA 4% 25 70 Rep 5% 12 83 Dem 1% 36 62 Ind 4% 25 71 Men 6% 24 70 Sub 4% 19 77 Wom 2% 27 71 1 Age 18-44 3% 27 70 Wht 4% 22 73 Age 45+ 4% 25 70 1 Blk 42 58 - UpState..... Urban Othr More likely Less likely Doesn't make diff DK/NA 3% 40 57 5% 22 72 1 UpState Total NYC 5% 26 69 1 2% 29 69 1 23. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference? Tot More likely Less likely Doesn't make diff DK/NA 10% 3 85 2 Rep 10% 6 82 2 Dem 14% 2 83 1 Ind 5% 2 92 1 Men 8% 4 86 2 Sub 5% 2 90 2 Wom 11% 3 85 1 Age 18-44 13% 1 85 1 Wht 4% 4 90 2 Age 45+ 8% 5 86 2 Blk 28% 69 2 UpState..... Urban Othr More likely Less likely Doesn't make diff DK/NA 10% 6 82 2 4% 6 90 1 UpState Total NYC 5% 6 88 1 18% 1 79 2 8 24. Do you think it's the government's responsibility to make sure that everyone in the United States has adequate health care, or don't you think so? Tot Yes No DK/NA 74% 23 3 Rep 54% 42 4 Dem 90% 8 2 Ind 71% 25 4 Men 65% 32 2 Sub 74% 23 3 Wom 81% 15 3 Age 18-44 78% 20 1 Wht 69% 27 3 Age 45+ 71% 25 4 Blk 87% 12 1 UpState..... Urban Othr Yes No DK/NA 78% 18 4 69% 28 3 UpState Total NYC 71% 27 3 79% 18 3 TREND: Do you think it's the government's responsibility to make sure that everyone in the United States has adequate health care, or don't you think so? Jun 11 2008 Yes No DK/NA 74 23 3 Apr 18 2008 70 28 2 25. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady? Tot Getting ahead Falling behind Holding steady DK/NA 15% 22 62 1 Rep 19% 15 64 1 Dem 16% 27 57 Ind 11% 23 65 1 Men 18% 19 63 1 Sub 17% 19 63 1 Wom 14% 25 60 1 Age 18-44 19% 23 58 1 Wht 16% 22 62 1 Age 45+ 13% 22 64 1 Blk 10% 24 66 - UpState..... Urban Othr Getting ahead Falling behind Holding steady DK/NA 9% 22 68 14% 27 58 1 UpState Total NYC 13% 26 60 1 17% 19 63 1 TREND: Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady? Jun 11 2008 Getting ahead Falling behind Holding steady DK/NA 15 22 62 1 Apr 17 2008 15 19 65 1 Mar 21 2008 18 17 64 1 9 28. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -a) Declining retirement fund values b) Declining real estate values c) Rising health care costs d) Rising gasoline prices e) Rising food prices Tot Retirement funds Real estate values Health care costs Gasoline prices Food prices DK/NA 10% 9 18 41 18 4 Rep 10% 12 12 45 17 4 Dem 11% 8 23 35 21 3 Ind 11% 8 17 44 15 5 Men 9% 11 13 47 17 3 Sub 12% 16 15 42 9 5 Wom 11% 7 22 37 19 4 Age 18-44 7% 11 16 43 21 2 Wht 10% 9 17 45 16 4 Age 45+ 13% 7 19 41 16 4 Blk 21% 10 20 29 17 3 UpState..... Urban Othr Retirement funds Real estate values Health care costs Gasoline prices Food prices DK/NA 11% 2 17 59 10 2 8% 4 14 54 16 3 UpState Total NYC 9% 4 15 55 15 3 11% 11 24 24 27 3 29. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? Tot Right thing Wrong thing DK/NA 24% 71 5 Rep 56% 38 6 Dem 5% 93 2 Ind 22% 72 6 Men 31% 66 3 Sub 29% 67 4 Wom 19% 75 6 Age 18-44 22% 74 4 Wht 29% 66 5 Age 45+ 26% 69 5 Blk 6% 90 4 UpState..... Urban Othr Right thing Wrong thing DK/NA 23% 74 3 29% 66 6 UpState Total NYC 28% 67 5 17% 79 4 TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? Jun 11 Apr 18 Mar 21 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 Oct 5 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2006 Right thing Wrong thing DK/NA 24 71 5 26 69 4 26 69 5 30 65 5 31 64 5 30 66 5 30 63 7 10 30. What should the United States do in Iraq? a) Withdraw all troops as soon as possible, OR b) Set a timetable to withdraw troops gradually OR c) Keep troops in Iraq as long as needed? Tot Withdraw all troops Set a timetable Keep troops as needed DK/NA 22% 52 23 3 Rep 14% 36 47 3 Dem 29% 62 7 2 Ind 20% 53 22 4 Men 21% 47 29 3 Sub 18% 52 28 3 Wom 24% 56 17 3 Age 18-44 22% 55 21 2 Wht 19% 52 26 3 Age 45+ 22% 50 24 4 Blk 36% 48 10 6 UpState..... Urban Othr Withdraw all troops Set a timetable Keep troops as needed DK/NA 20% 58 20 2 21% 50 25 4 UpState Total NYC 21% 52 24 3 27% 51 18 3 TREND: What should the United States do in Iraq? a) Withdraw all troops as soon as possible, OR b) Set a timetable to withdraw troops gradually OR c) Keep troops in Iraq as long as needed? Jun 11 2008 Withdraw all troops Set a timetable Keep troops as needed DK/NA 22 52 23 3 Apr 18 2008 23 50 24 4 Mar 21 2008 23 49 25 3 11