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					Dealing with uncertainties in emission
inventories




The inventories’ known unknowns




Jeroen Kuenen, Tinus Pulles
    Outline

    • Uncertainties in emission inventories
          • Different approaches to emission inventories
          • Importance of uncertainties
    • Dealing with uncertainties in the IPCC Guidelines for GHG inventories
    • Verification of emissions using satellite-based information




2   Uncertainties in emission inventories - experiences in UNFCCC and LRTAP   IIASA, Laxenburg, 4 November 2010
    Perspectives on Data Quality

                                    Perspective                                  Quality high if …
                                                                                         True
     Scientist
                                    Scientific debate:                                     ?
                                                                                 … it produces
                                    search for weaknesses and                    predictions that are
                                    errors; falsification                        confirmed

     Policy maker                                                               Accepted ?
                                    Political debate:
                                                                                 … everybody involved
                                    search for consensus and
                                                                                 agrees
                                    agreement; compromise

     Lawyer                                                                   Convinced ?
                                    Judicial debate:
                                                                                 … it convinces a
                                    search for proof or doubt;
                                                                                 judge or jury
                                    persuasion


3   Uncertainties in emission inventories - experiences in UNFCCC and LRTAP     IIASA, Laxenburg, 4 November 2010
    Verification and Validation


                                                                              Guidelines applied ?
                                                                                   validation
                  Real world
                  emissions




                                                                              Emission
     True ?                                                                   inventory
    verification
4   Uncertainties in emission inventories - experiences in UNFCCC and LRTAP     IIASA, Laxenburg, 4 November 2010
    Emission Inventory Guidance


                                          Procedural Guidance                 Technical Guidance



                                              UNFCCC Guidelines for
           Climate Change                                                         IPCC Guidelines
                                               Reporting and Review


                                            LRTAP Emission Reporting
             Air Pollutants                                                    EMEP/EEA Guidebook
                                                  Guidelines


                                                  What, when, how?              How to do what you
                                                   Commitment!                committed yourself to do?




5   Uncertainties in emission inventories - experiences in UNFCCC and LRTAP       IIASA, Laxenburg, 4 November 2010
    Emission reduction targets

    • Kyoto protocol: relative reduction                                        130

      targets
          • Change in methodology no                                            120

            problem, when applied to all years
                                                                                110




                                                              Emission (kton)
    • EU National Emission Ceilings:
      absolute emission targets                                                 100

          • Change in methodology can lead
            to significant increase/decrease                                    90



                                                                                80



                                                                                70
       Uncertainties become very                                                      1990            1995            2000              2005
       important, especially when
                                                                                                  Actual    Target_GHG Target_AP
                                                                                             Actual Actual-new   Target_GHG Target_AP
       using absolute targets


6   Uncertainties in emission inventories - experiences in UNFCCC and LRTAP                            IIASA, Laxenburg, 4 November 2010
                              S. Eggleston (IPCC TFI)



     • Uncertainties in GHG emission inventories

     • Use of satellite based information to verificate emission inventories


Presentations online @ http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/meeting/meeting.html
7    Uncertainties in emission inventories - experiences in UNFCCC and LRTAP   IIASA, Laxenburg, 4 November 2010
8   Uncertainties in emission inventories - experiences in UNFCCC and LRTAP   IIASA, Laxenburg, 4 November 2010
9   Uncertainties in emission inventories - experiences in UNFCCC and LRTAP   IIASA, Laxenburg, 4 November 2010
10   Uncertainties in emission inventories - experiences in UNFCCC and LRTAP   IIASA, Laxenburg, 4 November 2010
11   Uncertainties in emission inventories - experiences in UNFCCC and LRTAP   IIASA, Laxenburg, 4 November 2010
12   Uncertainties in emission inventories - experiences in UNFCCC and LRTAP   IIASA, Laxenburg, 4 November 2010
13   Uncertainties in emission inventories - experiences in UNFCCC and LRTAP   IIASA, Laxenburg, 4 November 2010
       Can we estimate emissions from in-situ and
      satellite data in combination with modeling?
     • Main interest is in annual total emissions over
       an entity (country)
     • For modelling applications spatial distribution
       and timing of emissions are very important


                      How can
                      satellite data
                      help to improve
                      these maps?



M. Schaap (TNO)
 IIASA, Laxenburg, 4 November
   23-3-2010, IPCC TFI uncertainties meeting             14
 2010
Indirectly via data assimilation: a challenge!
         • To disentangle the uncertainty due to the emission input
           from other model uncertainties
                    – The assimilation “blames” all errors to a limited amount of
                      parameters
         • To keep the system realistic and balanced
         • To combine different sources of data – multi component
                                              3                                                            3
               PM10 measurements (g/m )                             PM2.5 LOTOS-EUROS (g/m )                                                    AOT (-)




     5    10   15    20   25   30   35   40   45   50   55   2   4   6   8   10   12   14   16   18   20   22   24   26   0   0.05   0.1   0.15   0.2   0.25   0.3   0.35   0.4   0.45




         Ground based
IIASA, Laxenburg, 4 November                                                       Model                                                   Satellite                                     15
  23-3-2010, IPCC TFI uncertainties meeting
2010
Assimilation OMI NO2 measurements with LOTOS-EUROS

                                                Impact for ozone at the surface




Analysis NOx emissions / inventory (yellow=1)
  IIASA, Laxenburg, 4 November
    23-3-2010, IPCC TFI uncertainties meeting                             16
  2010
                Estimating NOx emission trends:
                     Konovalov et al., 2006




IIASA, Laxenburg, 4 November
  23-3-2010, IPCC TFI uncertainties meeting       17
2010
    Where can we use our present capabilities to
        provide information on emissions?
• Search for trends in the parameter estimates?
       – Does the EO data indicate that the emission trend is not as expected?
       – The system does the meteo correction, etc for you.
• To indentify locations of new and significant emission sources
       – The areas with consistently high model-measurement deviations
• To identify time profiles – needed: geostationary data
• Emission estimates
       – Only in hotspot locations, mostly qualitatively
• Direct variables such as land use, LAI, Fire Radiative Power,
  White cap, etc


IIASA, Laxenburg, 4 November
  23-3-2010, IPCC TFI uncertainties meeting                                  18
2010
     Conclusions

     • Uncertainty in inventories is important for determining whether targets
       are made
           • Especially for air pollutants with the absolute ceilings

     • Uncertainties in emission inventories can be determined using the
       available guidance (both in UNFCCC and LRTAP)
           • Includes information for emission factors and activity data
           • Uncertainty (95% conf. interval) available for all emission factors

     • Fast developments in the possibility of verifying emission inventories
       using satellite based information
           • First results show significant trend differences for NOx in some countries

     • Presentations IPCC Uncertainties workshop:
             http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/meeting/meeting.html



19   Uncertainties in emission inventories - experiences in UNFCCC and LRTAP   IIASA, Laxenburg, 4 November 2010

				
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posted:3/6/2013
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