Europe

Project: How We Want to Live Tomorrow Decision Makers 2010 Defining Tomorrow's Agenda Conference May 10-12, 1999, Frankfurt Center for Applied Policy Research Hoechst Foundation Find more information at: htttp://www.hoechst-forum-uni-muenchen.de Program Executive Summary Conclusions List of Participants Biographies - Program May 10 Informal Welcoming Dinner May 11 Introduction How We Want to Live Tomorrow Prof. Dr. Werner Weidenfeld Director , Center for applied Policy Research (C•A•P), University of Munich First Panel Shaping Future Societies: The Digital and Biotech Revolutions • What parts of life will be changed most by the new technologies? • What social problems or conflicts will advancing technologies provoke? • What can a technologically transformed society offer as solutions? Dr. Gregory Stock Director, Program on Science, Technology and Society University of California, Los Angeles, USA Dr. Moira Gunn Host, “Tech Nation” San Francisco, California, USA Discussion Second Panel Beyond Technology: The Shape of Globalized Societies • What are the key rules of the game in future societies, and which actors shape them? • Who are the likely winners and losers, and why? 2 • What element of social change (e.g. globalization, individualization, regionalization) is likely to be most important? Mr. Joop de Vries Executive Director RISC Futures Paris, France Mr. Walter Homolka Rabbi Hamburg, Germany Dr. Kriengsak Chareonwongsak, Executive Director, Institute of Future Studies for Development, Bangkok, Thailand Discussion Artistic Interval: Mindsteps Subha De Painter, Fathegunj Uadodara, India Joerg Frank Painter, Cologne, Germany May 12 Third Panel Priorities for Tomorrow: How Do We Start Building the Future Today? • What decisions and concrete measures do we need to take now in order to reach the future that we desire? • How can we organize social and generational contracts in a transformed society? Mr. William Wechsler National Security Council The White House Washington, DC, USA Mr. Richard Barbrook 3 Hypermedia Research Centre University of Westminster, London Mr. Rafael Lopa PLDT Foundation Manila, Philippines Discussion Conclusion Key Issues and Recommendations 4 Executive Summary Decision Makers 2010 - A Conference with a Difference The Concept The pace of change is accelerating. New technologies are emerging which will shape the ways and means of society, business and politics. Current leaders are often too caught up in the daily rush of events to consider their longer-term consequences, yet their decisions leave long-lasting legacies. Rising leaders, too, must often pay more attention to the next step than to the end goal. As a result, critical gaps can develop between the needs of the present and the needs of the future. Decision Makers 2010 intends to help bridge this gap. The Method The conference brought together members of a rising generation of leaders in order to define priorities and options for shaping the future of our societies. The C•A•P decided to address interlocking problems by confronting experts in a wide variety of fields with broad questions about the global future. In addition to presentations in their areas of expertise, technologists contributed views on social questions, social scientists would addressed the impact of technology, business leaders added to the discussion on values, and government members spoke on how to resolve these questions. Their answers, and the dialogue that followed, provide a guide to the key items on today‟s global agenda. In the follow-up to the conference, first participants and later other people associated with the project “How We Want to Live Tomorrow” will develop these agenda points into recommendations and action plans. The Questions Decision Makers 2010 looked first at the changes that technology is bringing to developed societies around the world. Then it addressed societal changes that are not directly related to technology. The conference brought these two threads together in a final round on measures we should take now to reach a desirable future. Shaping Future Societies: The Digital and Biotech Revolutions • What parts of life will be changed most by the new technologies? • What social problems or conflicts will advancing technologies provoke? • What can a technologically transformed society offer as solutions? Beyond Technology: The Shape of Globalized Societies • What are the key rules of the game in future societies, and which actors shape them? 5 • Who are the likely winners and losers, and why? • What element of social change (e.g. globalization, individualization, regionalization) is likely to be most important? Priorities for Tomorrow: How Do We Start Building the Future Today? • What decisions and concrete measures do we need to take now in order to reach the future that we desire? • How can we organize social and generational contracts in a transformed society? The Deliberations Shaping Future Societies: The Digital and Biotech Revolutions Dr. Gregory Stock, Director of the Program on Medicine, Technology, and Society at the University of California, Los Angeles opened the conference with strong words: “We are living in a time of unprecedented change ... the technologies we are developing today are ready to tear us from history.” Life grows complexity, but through a series of bursts, and we are on the verge of a change comparable with the development of multicellular organisms. That change is the fusion of technology with life, the effective creation of a global superorganism. This change has consequences, and the two most important are conscious reshaping of the earth‟s biosphere and turning technology back on ourselves, transforming what we mean by human. The development of genetic technology is completely embedded in mainstream medical research (e.g., curing disease, fertility research, animal research, and the human genome project), and attempting to stop be both impossible and immoral. The biggest divide that genetic technology will likely produce is generational: we may be terribly uncomfortable with these things, but our children probably won‟t be. By controlling its evolution, humanity is about to leave its childhood. Dr. Moira Gunn, laid out some important numbers to consider when looking at the digital revolution: there are 200 million PCs in the world, but 12 billion microprocessors. The average American encounters 72 microprocessors before lunch; 85% of working adult Americans use a PC; 90% of US schools are connected in some way to the internet; and 83% of US businesses have some form of internal computer network. On the other hand, some 40% of American adults are technophobic, with a further 10-20% mildly so. (The good news is that technophobia is not related to performance with using computers as tools.) In sum, the interconnectedness of almost all machines starts to look like the emergence of a worldwide consciousness. This leads to four challenges: • Privacy - balancing the rights of individuals, the needs of society, and the desires of business • Literacy - preliterate persons are excluded from this text-based consciousness • Societal Protection - we have to find the technical means to be civilized in cyberspace • International Economy - the future is integrated, and everyone has to come to terms with that. Finally, despite all of the recent changes, people are still people. The drives, desires, hopes and fears that have long been with us are not going to go away any time soon. [Link to longer summary. Eventual link to her presentation with audio elements.] 6 Highlights of the discussion that followed include: Prof. Kriengsak Chareonwongsak - Their history may lead the Europeans to worry more than other people about technology‟s advances. Asia is more economically driven. Dr. David Brin - As ambient levels of fear in a society fall, people can broaden their horizons to think about problems more distant than the next mean and about persons outside their immediate family circles. In the United States, you see the effects of having had very low levels of fear in society for up to three or four generations. What is the best way to lower fear in a society? How can we foster competition that does not call for the elimination of opponents? Dr. Christoph Erhart - Digitalization may let us see the arrival of efficiency in govenment. It‟s important to remember, though, that in democracies we may not get the “best” solution, but the most widely accepted one. (Think of Windows and the Macintosh.) In a digital world, the question arises about the diminishing importance of the body. Dr. Hans Fleisch - What‟s really new in all these changes? Perhaps the speed at which they are arriving. Our most important question is what kind of world would we want to have as normal. Beyond Technology: The Shape of Globalized Societies Mr. Joop de Vries, Executive Director of RISC - Future in Paris, France [link] opened the discussion on social changes not driven by technology. Although technological change will have a profound impact on our lives and lifestyles, I would not regard technology as the "key actor". The concept of "actor" implies action, which in turn implies that there is a degree of freedom and choice. In that sense, 'the people' collectively are the actors shaping the 'rules of the game', not the leaders. People will decide how new rules will be developed and in modern democracies, the leaders follow. When we refer to winners and losers, we have to define what game we are playing. Looking at societies and individual people - in contrast to countries or companies - the situation is less straightforward. At the macro-level, winners are those who have challenging jobs, are part of networks, are on-line, and financially well-off. Losers are the people with low skills and little money, and who are afraid of change. However, for society as a whole the main question is whether people see themselves as winners or losers. They apply their own criteria, which only in part are connected with the 'winners and losers' criteria at the macro-level. Rabbi Walter Homolka discussed the role of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in solving global problems. NGOs clearly have various positives sides: they challenge wrong, demand change, they can offer alternatives - very often NGOs are addressing political issues where their expertise is sought. But they also have serious drawbacks that limit their effectiveness at the international level: 1. 2. 3. NGOs are very unstable. NGOs are heavily dependant not only on public appreciation but also on media attention. NGOs are single-issue-oriented. 7 4. 5. 6. 7. NGOs are stuffed not so much by researchers and analysts but by believers. NGOs suffer from quite insufficient organizational structures. NGOs need an enemy. NGOs have no democratic legitimacy. He added, “I would say there is no other process than politics and people that elect their representatives that than can take of the kind of framework we need to go into the future. And I therefore would urge to discuss how we could reach a reformation of the political process.” Professor Kriengsak Chareonwongsak of the Institute of Future Studies for Development in Bangkok, Thailand, gave an Asian perspective on these issues. “The picture of industrialised society as it will be in the next 10 years I would like to paint, is a set of complex, overlapping and related observations of the future. There will be five critical, non-technological forces which will shape industrialized societies over the next 10 years: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Demography Natural resources and the environment Values World order Global interaction.” Society in 2010 will comprise both tension and co-operation at all levels, internationally, nationally as well as socially. Changes will take place gradually, step by step. Some of the potential tensions would need considerable adjustments and people will need to be more adaptable as the speed of change increases. And it will be a very challenging society to live in. In the discussion that followed, Dr. Hans Fleisch offered a point-by-point rebuttal of Rabbi Homolka‟s comments on NGOs. [link to Fleisch] He concluded, “What I see as a solution: We should think in three sectors: the governmental sector, the for-profit private sector, and the third sector which includes NGOs and foundations. They are driving forces of the future. Those who partner with institutions from other sectors will be the winners and the players of the future. And those countries will win where there is a good partnership between the government and the non-governmental including the private for-profit sector. This three-partnership-model and partnership, in principle, will solve many problems.” Steven O‟Connor saw potential solutions for Western Europe in the energetic capitalism in Central and Eastern Europe, while Jude Milhon offered the idea of benign conspiracies - non-governmental non-organizations that link people world-wide who are interested in particular issues. Connectivity has the potential to solve democracy‟s problem of scale. Dr. Gregory Stock said that in this context, supranationalism to eliminate conflict is probably a bad idea, and that the only way societies learn is through trial, error, and adaptation. Yoshimasa Hayashi, a member of the upper house of Japan‟s parliament, added that it is important for government to reach down to smaller scales in order to build acceptance among the population. 8 Priorities for Tomorrow: How Do We Start Building the Future Today? William Wechsler , Director for Multinational Threats at the National Security Council in Washington, DC, based his presentation on two building blocks: first, digitalization and biotechnology are both revolutionary and permanent changes; second, the state will not wither away in a world changed by technology. Digitalization and biotech are also positive developments, as they will create wealth throughout the world. Though the state as such will not disappear, states will likely be transformed in several ways: Federalization and transparency will both increase; The nationalist state will decline in importance; Small states will benefit more than others from increasing supranationalism; and Globalization will make the consequences of policy differences more dramatic. Both technological revolutions will give new and powerful tools to people who want to do harm. This is important for everyone in the developed world, but particularly for the United States, which rates as the world‟s number one target. To limit vulnerabilities, the government is working on improving terrorism preparedness, on critical infrastructure protection, and on shrinking the time between development of weapons and development of defenses against them. In particular, efforts are underway to improve detection equipment, to identify anomalous activits, to deter states from undertaking aggressive biological attacks, and to build “surge capacity” into hospitals and vaccination capabilities. He also addressed rogue actors, globalization, and privacy. (The views presented by Mr. Wechsler are his own and not those of the National Security Council or the United States Government.) Richard Barbrook, of the University of Westminster‟s Hypermedia Research Centre, took issue with the idea that the coming high-tech world is a break with the world of today. He pointed out that globalization is just now passing levels reached before World War I. In particular, the internet is not a break with the past, but a speeding up and intensification of industrialization. Modernity is a process, rather than a steady state, and a slow process at that. For example, the internet is making real the theoretical right to a free press that was clearly articulated as much as two hundred years ago. Rights that have long been held by persons only in theory are finally being realized in practice. In the future, this may make education and social services actually fulfil their promises as well. What‟s happening with the intensification through technology? 1. Work is being re-valued. In the digital world, we are seeing a revival of artisan work. Skill is a key concept, and autonomy over the pace of work is a central demand of high-tech workers. Many are also insisting on owning their own means of production. 9 2. We are seeing new methods of work, new means of organizing collective labor. The success of both Linux and MP3 shows the power of the gift economy. With new approaches, the gift economy begins to hybridize with both state and market. The end of the twentieth century has supposedly brought the end of utopian visions. Paradoxically, though we may not be driven by grand visions, we may be closer to fulfilling them than ever before. Rafael Lopa, a Project Director for the PLDT Foundation and Executive Director of the Benigno Aquino Foundation in Manila, said that the questions are more than philosophical. In the light of the state of our world today, it is truly a practical and urgent concern. Humanity is currently caught in a race for more and more progress, more and more technology to get somewhere fast. Where that is, is not exactly clear. And what we want to achieve when we get there is even more vague. The fundamental truth that every individual matters, and that the good of society is every person's responsibility, is what has been taken for granted in the mad rush towards the future. We could look on helplessly and allow technology to dictate its rules and values on us and our children. Or we could be pro-active and give our children the values and priorities not only to survive the relentless onslaught of progress and development, but recognize the good in it and harness this for the betterment of mankind. 10 Conclusions and Agenda for the Future Closing the conference, Professor Werner Weidenfeld summed up the arguments of the preceding two days. He listed five key areas for further research: • Coping with speed. Participants agreed that the pace of change appears to be accelerating, and that both societies and leaders need mechanisms for coping with rapid changes. • Civil society needs to be strengthened. While it cannot replace the state or private enterprise, civil society fills gaps left by both. Future societies that do not have sufficient balance among the three will serve their citizens poorly. • Demographic change will place stresses on all industrialized countries, and most developing ones as well. As societies age, they will need to redefine work and to reshape the structures that provide for people in retirement. • Our concept of privacy is under fierce pressure. The ability to store and transmit personal information rapidly to many different end-users means that individual reliance on secrecy, anonymity or even discretion can no longer be assured. Our societies are seeking new balances in the trade-offs between the benefits of widespread information and personal privacy. As part of its ongoing work, the Research Group on the Global Future will pursue each of these themes. Participants in the conference offered additional final points: Dr. Gregory Stock • The speed of change adds up to a qualitative difference • Unified global responses to the problems addressed here are probably bad ideas; we should preserve the opportunity for solutions to compete • We need to incorporate biotechnology into our existing models for making medical decisions. They are both adequate and allow for case-by-case examination of circumstances. Dr. Moira Gunn • Responsible use of information can be programmed into the networked structures that we build. We must ask computer science to respond to our societal needs, not ask our society to adjust to what the computer companies want to provide. Jon Bingen • Common denominator of problems listed is that of building a legitimate, functional state with proper financing. Josef Janning • Looking explicitly at urban communities will demonstrate many of the points raised during the conference Dr. Christof Erhart • Focus more in the individual level than on the systemic level 11 Robbie Oxnard Bent • Dialogue about the future should be as broadly based as possible Dr. David Brin • We should look more at non-zero-sum alternative means of dispute resolution • We need to revisit the discussion about whether or not some ideas are inherently toxic These comments will also be incorporated into the continuing work of the Research Group on the Global Future. 12 List of Participants North America Ms. Robbie Oxnard Bent, Director, The Posse Foundation, New York Prof. Dr. David Brin, astrophysicist, author of The Transparent Society: Will Technology Force Us to Choose Between Privacy and Freedom?, award-winning science fiction author Dr. Moira Gunn, PBS Technology Radio, host of “Tech Nation ... Americans and Technology,” former NASA computer scientist Mr. Douglas Merrill, Senior Research Fellow, Research Group on the Global Future, Center for Applied Policy Research Ms. Jude Milhon, former senior editor of Mondo 2000, author of How to Mutate and Take Over the World (book on privacy, identity and alliances in a completely mediated society) Mr. Stephen O‟Connor, Group Publisher New World Publishing (Budapest, Prague and Warsaw Business Journals) Dr. Gregory Stock, Director, Program on Medicine, Technology, and Society, University of California, Los Angeles Ms. Karen J. West, legal counsel for Amoco Canada, Calgary, Canada Mr. William Wechsler, Director for Global Issues and Multilateral Affairs, National Security Council, The White House Europe Mr. Richard Barbrook, Hypermedia Research Centre, University of Westminster, London, UK Dr. Jon Bingen, Europa-Programmet, Oslo, Norway Dr. Christoph Erhart, BOL International, Zurich, Switzerland Dr. Hans Fleisch, German World Population Foundation, Hannover, Germany Mr. Joerg Frank, Painter, Cologne, Germany Mr. Walter Homolka, Rabbi, Hamburg, Germany Prof. Dr.-Ing. Vollrath Hopp, University of Rostock, Germany Mr. Josef Janning, Deputy Director, Center for Applied Policy Research, Munich, Germany 13 Dipl. Ing. Petr Lebeda, Research Fellow, Institute of International Relations, Prague, Czech Republic Mr. Justus Mische, Member of the Board of Trustees, Hoechst Foundation, Frankfurt, Germany Mr. Juergen Turek, Director, Research Group on the Global Future, Center for Applied Policy Research, Munich, Germany Mr. Markus Vorbeck, Senior Research Fellow, Research Group on the Global Future, Center for Applied Policy Research, Munich, Germany Mr. Joop de Vries, Executive Director, RISC Futures, Paris, France Mr. Arnd Wagner, Managing Director, Hoechst Foundation, Frankfurt, Germany Prof. Dr. Dr.h.c. Werner Weidenfeld, Director, Center for Applied Policy Research, Munich, Germany Asia Mr. Hoon Chang, Kim Dae-Jung Peace Foundation, Seoul, South Korea Mr. Kriengsak Chareonwongsak, Executive Director, Institute of Future Studies for Development, Bangkok, Thailand Ms. Subha De, Painter, Fathegunj Uadodara, India Mr. Yoshimasa Hayashi, Member of Japan‟s House of Councillors, Tokyo, Japan Mr. Rafael C. Lopa, Project Director, PLDT Foundation; Executive Director Benigno S. Aquino Foundation, Manila, Philippines Prof. Dr. Atsuko Onuki, Literature Professor, Gakushuin University, Japan Mr. Jeong-Ho Roh, Center for Korean Legal Studies, Columbia University, New York, USA 14 Biographies of Participants Dr. Richard Barbrook Great Britain. Sociologist and member of the Hypermedia Research Centre at the University of Westminster, London. Mr. Barbrook received wide attention in the digital world 1997 for his essay on ”Californian Ideology.” In it he provokes the readers with the assertion that some kind of virtual Western Coast elite dominated the debate about future possibilities of the cyberspace. He pleads for a European alternative concept, which aims at providing equal access to the digital world for everybody. link: http://www.hrc.wmin.ac.uk/ Ms. Robbie Oxnard Bent USA. Robbie Oxnard Bent is Executive Director of the Posse Foundation in New York. She has held this position since 1997. Ms. Bent received her MBA at Harvard Business School and her BA with honors at Barnard College, Columbia University. Ms. Bent worked in Paris, growing an international jewelry company. She has also worked at the New York City Office of Management and Budget, and at Goldman, Sachs & Co. in New York. In addition to her work at Posse. Ms. Bent is a Teaching Fellow at Harvard Univeristy for Dr. Robert Coles‟ class „The Literature of Social Reflection.‟ Dr. Jon Bingen Norway. In 1991, Dr. Bingen is the director of Europa-programmet, a program that he initiated in 1991. Europa-programmet was established as a think-tank, aiming to enhance competence and research in European affairs after the cold war. The program is an applied research center, producing analysis for Norwegian authorities and major companies on European developments. Mr. Bingen has widely published on subjects related to political philosophy, in particular „realism,‟ strategy, political sociology and contemporary European issues. In addition, he has translated numerous books from English, Italian and German. link: http://www.euro-program.no Dr. David Brin USA. David Brin, Ph.D, has a triple career as scientist, public speaker, and author. Several of his novels, such as The Postman and The Uplift War, have been New York Tims Bestsellers and won multiple Hugo, Nebula and American Library Association awards. His 1989 ecological thriller, Earth, foreshadowed global warming and near-future trends like the World Wide Web. 15 A 1997 movie, directed by Kevin Costner, was loosely based on Brin‟s novel The Postman. Another novel, Startide Rising, has been sold to Paramount Pictures. In his 1998 non-fiction book - The Transparent Society: Will Technology Force Us to Choose Between Privacy and Freedom? - Brin deals with a range of unexpected threats and opportunities facing our wired society in the electronic age. As a speaker he shares unique and often humorous insights to the way technology may affect our human future. David Brin was a fellow at the California Space Institute and at the Jet Propulsion Lab, studying spacecraft design, cometary physics, and analyses of the likelihhod of life in the universe. He now lives in San Diego County with his wife, three children, and a hundred very demanding trees. http://www.kithrup.com/brin/ Mr. Chang Hoon South Korea. A graduate from Sogang University, Seoul, Mr. Chang currently works as a research fellow with the Kim Dae-Jung Peace Foundation for the Asia-Pacific Region, Seoul. After working for an apparel company which strives to combine entrepreneurship with charity and social consciousness between 1994 and 1996, Mr. Chang went back to Sogang University to pursue a master‟s degree in international politics. In 1998, he joined the Kim Dae-Jung Peace Foundation where his work as a researcher includes analyzing and evaluating the newly inaugurated Kim Dae-jung government‟s national policies and organize international academic conferences to explore innovative policy alternatives. Professor Dr. Kriengsak Chareonwongsak Thailand. Professor Dr. Chareonwongsak is Executive Director of the Institute of Future Studies for Development (IFD), Bangkog. The institute focuses on interdisciplinary future studies contributing to national and human resource development. Academically, he teaches business, finance and economics at the graduate level of several universities. He is Research Professor at Regent University, USA, and an Adjunct Professor at other universities in Thailand and overseas. He was an advisor to a former Prime Minister of Thailand and has held positions on various policy-making boards such as the Eighth Planning Committee of the National Economics and Social Development Board. Professor Chareonwongsak is also a newspaper and magazine columnist, having written over one thousand articles containing academic analysis and proposals on various issues. He has authored over fifity books, hosted several TV talk-shows series and is heard frequently on radio. His perspectives are often highlighted in interviews carried by a wide variety of media sources in Thailand and overseas. http://www.ifd.or.th Ms. Subha De 16 India. Ms. De studied of fine arts painter and professor at the University of Tindrum and is an illustrator for children‟s books. She has won several scholarships and awards from different universities and held exhibitions both in India and in Europe (1992 Berlin, 1993 Nuremberg, 1994 Great Britain). Ms. De links commitment to social work for children and women with her commitment to art. She is in contact with many outstanding persons of the intellectual and artistic world in India. Dr. Christof E. Erhart Germany. Dr. Erhart is Vice President for Corporate Communications and Event Marketing BOL (Bertelsmann Online) International. As such, he is responsible for all external relations for the company and in charge of questions of political and judicial rules for the internet. He was previously Director of the Public Relations Department of Bertelsmann Buch AG, Munich. http://www.bol.de Dr. Hans Fleisch Germany. Dr. Fleisch is the Managing Director of the World Population Foundation, Hannover, Germany (Deutsche Stiftung Weltbevölkerung). He has held this position since 1992. Prior to that, he was the head of the Corporate Client Department of the Allianz Life Insurance company, one of Europe‟s top insurance companies World population and sustainable development are his key issues, and he has published on these topics in a wide range of German journals and magazines. Dr. Fleisch is also a member of the board of directors of Population Communication International (PCI), New York, as well as an adviser on population and development-related issues to the event programme of the EXPO 2000 world exposition. http://www.dsw-online.de Mr. Jörg Frank Germany. Painter and artist. As a student of Joseph Beuys, Frank has extended Beuys‟ concept of using visual and verbal forms of expression as integrated media of communication. Dr. Moira Gunn USA. Labeled the‟Grand Dame of Tech Talk‟ by Wired Magazine, Dr. Moira Gunn is the host of “Tech Nation ... Americans & Technology,” a weekly interview program which has aired on National Public Radio (NPR) stations and Armed Forces Radio International since 1993. In over 1,000 interviews with space pioneers and cyber-novelists, venture capitalists and genetics 17 researchers, teachers and technophobes, Dr. Gunn has examined every facet of American life through the lens of technology. A former NASA scientist and engineer, Dr. Gunn is no stranger to technology. She has served as a member of the Awards Selection Committee for the Space Technology Hall of Fame, and currently is a member of the Board of Directors of the Tech Museum of Innovation. She holds a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering from Purdue University and a Masters degree in computer science, as well as a technical patent in human nutrition. Along with a longtime technical consulting business, Dr. Gunn is also an Adjunct Professor at the University of San Francisco. In addition to her schedule as a moderator and event emcee, Dr. Gunn writes a weekly commentary on life in the technology age entitled „Five Minutes‟ which airs on NPR Stations, and appears on the internet at the San Jose Mercury News/Knight-Ridder website: www.siliconvalley.com. Mr. Yoshimasa Hayashi Japan. Lawyer and politician in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), 1991 Harvard Graduate School of Arts and Science, since 1995 member of the Japanese Parliament. Mr. Hayashi is a democratic star in Japan, committed to making election campaigns more transparent. Membership in several political and social committees. Since 1994 he has served as secretary in the Japanese Ministry of Finance. http://www.urban.ne.jp/home/yogi/ Dr. Walter Homolka Germany. After a career in investment banking and in publishing Rabbi Dr. Walter Homolka chaired Greenpeace Germany as its Chief Execeutive Director. Rabbi Homolka was the first progressive rabbi in Germany after the war, serving Temple Beth Shalom in Munich. In 1998, he was elected senior rabbi for the state of Lower Saxony where he cares directly for the non-orthodox congregations. He earned two PhD degrees for finance from Greenwich University and in Jewish Thought from King‟s College London. Rabbi Homolka is a Governing Body member of the World Union for Progressive Judaism and an executive committee member of the European Region as well as a member of the European Rabbinical Court. English books include: The Gate to Perfection - The Idea of Peace in Jewish Thought (with Albert H. Friedlander) and Culture First! - Promoting Standards in the New Media Age Professor Dr.-Ing. Vollrath Hopp Germany. Professor Hopp studied chemistry and chemical technology at the Technical University in Berlin. Throughout his professional life he taught at several German universities. He has been a professor at the University of Rostock since 1991, lecturing on chemical technology and food 18 technology. He has published various books on chemical engineering as well as a range of articles on chemical engineering and planning studies in the field of basic and vocational training. Mr. Josef Janning Deputy Director, Center for Applied Policy Research, Munich, Germany link to biography Dipl. Ing. Petr Lebeda Czech Republic. Mr. Lebeda has been a research fellow with the Institute of International Relations, Prague, since 1997. He earned a master‟s degree in International Relations and Diplomacy from the University of Economics in Prague. Mr. Lebeda actively participates in the work of various Czech NGOs and is currently involved in the preparation work for this year‟s FORUM 2000 conference in Prague. His key interest is global change and he has published several articles on globalization and the situation of his native country in a globalized world. Dr. Rafael C. Lopa The Philippines. Dr. Lopa is project director at the Benigno S. Aquino Foundation in Manila. He is in charge of CODE-WAN, the Countrywide Development Wide Area Network. CODE-WAN unites geographically dispersed NGO groups and alliances through an electronic network, enabling them to inform and be informed quickly and efficiently. link with institute: http://www.codewan.com.ph Mr. Douglas Merrill Senior Research Fellow, Research Group on the Global Future, Center for Applied Policy Research link to biography Ms. Jude Milhon USA. Known by her nom de plume St. Jude, she currently works as a freelance cyberjournalist and as a programmer with several Silicon Valley startup companies. Her previous work includes a seminal stint as senior editor for Mondo 2000, the cutting-edge magazine of digital culture. 19 In her work she explores boundaries and shaping of identity in networked societies.St. Jude coined the term cypherpunk to describe cryptography activists, and has widely published on the digital culture. Her books include: The Cyberpunk Fake Book, and How to Mutate and Take Over the World (with R.U. Sirius) Mr. Justus Mische Germany. Mr. Mische is a member of the Board of Trustees, Hoechst Foundation, Frankfurt. After completing a commercial apprenticeship at Hoechst AG, he studied business administration and then joined the Fiber Sales Department of Hoechst AG in 1966. Mr. Mische held various positions in this division, served as the head of Personnel and Social Policy, and was appointed to the Board of Mangement in 1988. link to Hoechst Foundation Mr. Stephen A. O’Connor USA. A publisher of three business journals, Mr. O‟ Connor has both observed and actively participated in the transformation process of Eastern European economies. Since the launch of the first newspaper in 1992, the Budapest, Prague und Warsaw Business Journals have become required reading for entrepreneurs and decision-makers in Eastern Europe. http://www.ceebiz.com http://www.bbj.hu Professor Dr. Atsuko Onuki Japan. As a Germanist at Gakushuin University, Professor Onuki is committed to an exceptional concept in the debate of public policy: contrary to the traditional perception, she claims that Japan‟s problems cannot be solved sustainably in a national paradigm, but that new ways of cooperation on an international level must be established. Mr. Jeong-Ho Roh South Korea. Currently Associate Director of the Center for Korean Legal Studies at Columbia University, New York, he previously served as DMZ political education officer and then as legal officer at the Ministry of National Defense responsible for negotiating and drafting contracts with U.S. and European arms suppliers for the Korean air force, navy and army. 20 Mr. Roh is also a lecturer in law at Columbia and a staff lecturer at the Korean Cultural Center in New York. His principle areas of interest are comparative constitutional law, international business transactions and cross-border mergers & acquisitions. http://www.columbia.edu/cu/korealaw Dr. Gregory Stock USA. Dr. Stock is currently directing the Program on Science, Technology, and Society at the University of California, Los Angeles. He is also a visiting senior fellow at the Center for the Study of Evolution and the Origin of Life. Dr. Stock has explored the larger evolutionary significance of humanity‟s recent technological progress for many years, and he examined the subject at length in his 1993 book, Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorganism. Following its publication, he spent a year at Princeton‟s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs looking specifically at the implications of recent breakthroughs in molecular genetics. It was as an outgrowth of that work that he teamed up with John Campbell to organize the first conference ever on human germline engineering (link with our biotech portal: documents-conference report). Stock received a Ph.D in biophysics from John Hopkins University and an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School. He has published research papers on development biology, limb regeneration, and laser light scattering, and has designed computer software for electronic banking networks. He has appeared on hundreds of radio and television shows from Larry King to Good Morning Australia to discuss various aspects of technology and human values, and is the author of four books besides Metaman. His exploration of values, The Book of Questions, was a New York Times bestseller that has sold over two million copies and been translated into 15 languages. link: Program on Science, Technology and Society: http://research.mednet.ucla.edu/pmts Mr. Jürgen Turek Director, Research Group on the Global Future, Center for Applied Policy Research, Munich, Germany link to biography Mr. Markus Vorbeck Senior Research Fellow, Research Group on the Global Future, Center for Applied Policy Research, Munich, Germany link to biography Dr. Joop de Vries 21 Netherlands. Joop de Vries is executive director of RISC Futures. He studied physical chemistry in the Netherlands and in New Jersey (USA). After obtaining a PhD degree, he joined Shell in 1974 at the research labarotory in Amsterdam. Soon thereafter he transferred to Shell Netherlands where he joined the planning department with a special focus on socio-economic issues and the use of scenarios. During his subsequent years with Shell, he primarily held positions in trading and marketing - since the late 1980s as Marketing Director in the Netherlands and thereafter as Area Co-ordinator for Central-America and the Caribbean. Throughout his career, he maintained a strong professional interest in strategic planning and the socio-political dimensions of the business environment. On two occasions, he worked in Shell International‟s Group Planning division in London, first as focal point for the societal aspects of Shell‟s corporate planning, and later as head of the team responsible for producing the global Shell scenarios. In this latter position, he also developed scenarios for specific regions and business sectors. He has spoken extensively on scenarios and scenario-planning both inside and outside the company. In Group Planning, he worked closely together with Arie de Geus, Peter Schwartz, and many other scenario planners who at the time were associated with Shell. Joop de Vries has been with RISC in Paris since January 1997, when he joined as Managing Director with a focus on consulting and future activities. In September 1998, this became the basis for a new company, RISC Futures. http://www.risc-int.com Mr. Arnd Wagner Managing Director, Hoechst Foundation, Frankfurt, Germany link with biography Professor Dr. Dr.h.c. Werner Weidenfeld Director, Center for Applied Policy Research, Munich, Germany link with biography Mr. William Wechsler USA. Mr. Wechslter currently serves as Director for Transnational Threats on the National Secutiry Council. He rose from grass-roots political activism to the inner circles of the Pentagon and the White House. Dealing with such sensitive issues as information and biotech warfare, he belongs to a rising generation of decision-makers that understands the impact of technology on policy and democracy. http://www.whitehouse.gov/WH/EOP/NSC/html/nschome.html 22 Ms. Karen J. West Canada. Ms. West is a legal counsel with Amoco Canada, Petroleum Company Ltd. in Calgary. She works on health, environment and security issues for the company and aims to show that energy production and responsible corporate citizenship are compatible. http://www.bpamoco.com 23