ELECTION STATISTICS Your company, Pollster, is a campaign strategy company. Top candidates solicit Pollster‟s advice on how to get elected. You, being the top strategist in the company, have been brought in to save the presidential account. Not much time is left before the elections and the candidates want to know which states they need to target in the last month. Therefore, you need to analyze election and voting statistics in order to advise the candidate on how to win the election. You may choose whichever candidate Obama or McCain as to whom you want to advise. TASK #1: WHAT IS THE MOST EFFICIENT WAY TO REACH 270 ELECTORAL VOTES?
The President and Vice President are elected by the “Electoral College”, rather than by a direct popular vote. Each state is allocated “electoral votes” equal to the total number of Senators and Representatives allocated to that State. The District of Columbia is also allocated three votes. On election day, (the Tuesday following the first Monday of November) voters are actually voting for Electoral College members who promise to vote for the candidates of the respective political parties. In all but two states, the party with the greatest number of votes receives all of the electoral college votes for that state, even if no candidates gets a majority. Nebraska and Maine allow their electoral votes to be split amongst the candidates, but this has not actually happened in modern times. In order to win a “ticket” (A party‟s Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates) must receive 270 electoral votes, which is one more than half of the total of 538 electoral votes. If no ticket as 270 votes, then the House of Representatives decides the election. The electoral system forces candidates to carefully allocate their time and money among the states. Each candidate must devise a campaign strategy which gives him the best chance to win 270 electoral votes. 1. Analyze the Distribution of Electoral Votes Chart. Ask yourself, Why have the number of electoral votes changed every ten years? 2. Construct a histogram to represent the number of electors by state (for 2001-2010) on graph paper. Use appropriate intervals to be able to read the data. 3. Reconstruct the histogram using Excel. Compare the two graphs. Do they look the same? 4. Analyze your data. What is the median? What is the distribution? What information does this graph provide in order to help you advise the candidate? 5. Determine the least amount of states needed to reach 270 electoral votes 6. Identify the top ten states that are the most critical to win the electoral votes 7. Go to the website http://www.electoral-vote.com/. Where did the website poll for today? On your US map, color your top ten states with the appropriate color of the candidate who is currently projected. Is your candidate in the lead with electoral votes? OR You can do this on-line at http://www.270towin.com/ - Start the starting view at all neutral, click on the state once for Republican, twice for Democrat. As you click on the state, below the map gives you the voting history for the past 20 years. Factor that into your decision as to if it is truly likely your candidate will win the state. Suggested resources: http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/ (Great website with lots of election info) http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ev http://www.electoral-vote.com/
TASK #2: IS THE POPULAR VOTE POPULAR?
The premise of the electoral college was that it was designed so that elections would be run by the states themselves and not by the federal government. This makes it mathematically possible for one to get the most popular votes and still lose the election. If a candidate wins a state with 51% of the vote, he gets 100% of the electoral college votes. This is exactly what happened in the election of 2000. Gore actually won more popular votes than Bush, but Bush took more states than Gore. Since each state, no matter how small, is guaranteed 3 electoral votes, the difference favored Bush. This was the fourth time in American History that this has happened. 1. Analyze Table 4C: Reported Voting and Registration of the Citizen Voting Age Population. In order to analyze, ask yourself, what information does each column contain? 2. Calculate the percent of voted compared to the total citizens – (total voted / total citizens) 3. Now, calculate the percent of total registered compared to the total citizens – (total registered / total citizens) 4. Repeat steps 2 & 3 for the top ten electoral states you identified as being critical in Task #1. 5. Using the percents for the top ten states, construct a back to back stem and leaf plot on graph paper. 6. What is the mean, mode and median? 7. Find a stem and leaf plotter software online. Recreate and print out. 8. Go back to Table 4C. Look at the 8th column – percent voted. What are the top ten states that have the best voter turnout? 9. Go back to the electoral vote map. Outline the top ten states that have the best voter turnout in another color. Make sure to create a key. 10. Analyze the stem and leaf plot and the map. Are the top ten states that you have identified still your top ten? Suggested Resources: http://www.fec.gov
TASK #3: WHICH GENDER HAS MORE OF A VOICE?
Until Congress and state legislatures extended suffrage to women through the Nineteenth Amendment in 1920, women had little involvement in electoral politics. Even in the 1950‟s women voters party preferences differed from men‟s, particularly in presidential races. Female voters supported Dwight Eisenhower by a 5 to 6 percent than men in the 1952 and 1956 elections. John Kennedy won many of the Democratic primaries in 1959 with the aid o significant female support when compared to rivals Hubert Humphrey and Lyndon Johnson. He also established the first women‟s presidential campaign committee for a major party. The Democratic presidents after Kennedy continued to court support among women by appointing women to political posts and by proposing and passing reforms that would target discrimination amongst women. Since the 1980‟s both a „turnout‟ gap and a „gender‟ gap in party preferences have increased the importance of women‟s vote. For presidential elections, gender gaps of around 6 percent are normal. 1. Look at Table 4A: Reported Voting and Registration of he Total Voting Age Population by sex Chart. 2. Using the top ten critical states that you identified in Task #1, create a parallel box and whisker plot comparing women voters to men voters. Use column #8 (Total voted) for your data. 3. Recreate and check your box and whisker plot on the graphing calculators. Attach to the computer and print it out. 4. Analyze your data and charts. What are the quartiles, interquartiles? Are there any outliers? What is the distribution? How critical is the women‟s votes? Suggested Resources: www.cawp.rutgers.edu/Facts/Elections/GenderGapAdvisory04.pdf
TASK
#4: DO THE YOUTH USE THEIR VOICE?
The 18-24 age citizens of the U.S. account for 12% of the population, yet account for only 10% of the registered voters.
1. Research at least 4-5 websites to learn more about the importance of the youth vote. What kind of influence can 18-24 year olds have in electoral politics? 2. Choosing an appropriate data display, gather your own statistics from articles, surveys, etc. and look at how the youth vote could help or hurt a campaign for your top ten states. 3. Using Table 12, create another appropriate data display showing the Reasons for not voting. It does not have to be limited to the younger vote, but it can be if you need the data to make a point. 4. Generate a top ten list of reasons why young voters should and can make a difference in politics. Make it into some type of advertisement. Use your statistics in the advertisement to prove your point. http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1708684,00.html http://pbskids.org/zoom/fromyou/elections/ http://www.pbs.org/elections/kids/ http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1708570,00.html (Gives links to many resources)
TASK #5: THE FINAL REPORT
Financing an election campaign is costly. The Campaigns of George W. Bush and John Kerry together with the Democratic, Republican parties, and allied groups, spent more than $1 billion in the course of the 2004 presidential elections. Therefore, it is important that they spend their money wisely. 1. Analyze ALL of your research, data and charts 2. Analyze all of the websites you have done research with. Was there misleading graphs or data? If so, include this as information to support your cause. 3. Prepare a written campaign report for your candidate that stresses which votes and states they should be targeting. This will probably be at least 2-3 pages to cover all the information. Use the guiding questions with each task as an outline. a. Provide some campaign ideas for winning the suggested voters/states. b. Justify your responses and ideas based on your statistical findings. Therefore, you will need to use examples and refer to your charts. c. Include your analysis of each chart. Remember to discuss the measures of center, the distribution and the spread of the graphs as your justification. 4. Prepare a presentation to go with your written report. This can be a power point, brochure, poster, transparencies, etc. Use your graphs that you created on the graphing calculator, Excel, online graphing software, etc. In other words, not your hand drawn graphs. Whatever format you choose, it must be neat, organized, typed, creative and colorful. Remember, you are presenting this to (hopefully, if they follow your advice) the next President of the United States! This is due Monday, October 6, 2008 by the end of the school day! The project is worth 100 points! Bonus Point Opportunities: +5: Turn in on Friday, October 3, 2008 +10: Find a misleading graph and analyze why it is misleading!
PROJECT ASSEMBLY CHECKLIST: _____ Report _____ Hand-Made Graphs:__Histogram, _ Map, _ Stem & Leaf Plot, _ Box & Whisker Plot _____ This Page _____ Presentation: Include all technologically produced graphs, map, top 10 reasons to vote
Election Statistics Project Rubric
Name: _______________________________ Top Notch Statistic Analyst (25) Explanation shows complete understanding of the statistical analysis and concepts used to solve the problem(s) Core: _____________ Total _________/100 Basic Statistic Analyst (10)
Category
Emerging Statistic Beginning Analyst (20) Statistic Analyst (15) Explanation shows substantial understanding of the statistical analysis and concepts used to solve the problem(s) Explanation shows some understanding of the statistical analysis and concepts used to solve the problem(s) Presentation is a little difficult to understand, but includes critical components. Ideas and findings are justified through statistical analysis, though with some error. Diagrams and charts are somewhat difficult to understand, and some are not properly constructed All but two of the tasks are completely done. +10:
Mathematical Concepts
Explanation shows limited understanding of the statistical analysis and concepts used to solve the problem(s)
Presentation & Report
The presentation is detailed and clear. All ideas and findings are justified through correct statistical analysis.
The presentation is clear. Most ideas and findings are justified through correct statistical analysis.
Presentation is a difficult to understand, and/or is missing critical components OR was not included.
Diagrams, Charts & Technology
Diagrams and charts are clear, properly constructed and greatly add to the reader‟s understanding.
Diagrams and charts are clear, properly constructed and somewhat add to the reader‟s understanding. All but one of the tasks is completely done.
Diagrams and charts are difficult to understand, are not properly constructed or are not used
Completion
All tasks are completed +5:
Several of the tasks are not completely done.
Bonus Points:
Turn in on Friday, October 3, 2008
Find a misleading graph and analyze why it is misleading!
My parents and I have read and discussed the project and grading rubric:
______________________________ __________ Student Signature Date
____________________________ ________ Parent Signature Date