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Credit Suisse -Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

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					                                                                                                             25 January 2013
                                                                                                      Asia Pacific/Indonesia
                                                                                                            Equity Research
                                                                                  Consumer Discretionary / Consumer Staples




                                                     Indonesia Consumer Survey
                                                     2013
                           Research Analysts
                                                     STRATEGY
                              Ella Nusantoro
                            62 21 255 37917
             ella.nusantoro@credit-suisse.com
                                  Priscilla Tjitra
                                                     Maintaining confidence and optimism
                               62 21 255 37906
              priscilla.tjitra@credit-suisse.com




DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON US ANALYSTS. FOR
OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit www.credit-suisse.com/researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683 US
Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,
investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS                                                        BEYOND INFORMATION®
                                                                                     Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access
                                                                                                            25 January 2013




Introduction
We are delighted to publish the third edition of the Credit Suisse Global Emerging            Stefano Natella
Consumer Survey and its accompanying Databook. At a time when investor confidence in          Co-head of Global
the outlook for global growth is improving, it is opportune to review the dynamics and        Securities Research
drivers of what is a key component of the prospects for global growth—the role played by
the consumer in the emerging world. The analysis carried in this report provides insights
not available from public sources of economic information.
To undertake this project, the Credit Suisse Research Institute had engaged the leading
global market research firm Nielsen to conduct face-to-face interviews with over 14,000
consumers across eight emerging economies posing more than 125 questions to help
reflect a granular picture of their spending habits, future intentions and importantly, the
factors that influence them.
The 2013 survey has been refreshed to address new issues—social and economic—and
alongside Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, we have
added South Africa. The detailed analysis of the differing demographic, income and
rural/urban characteristics underlines that these emerging consumers cannot be viewed in
a generic fashion.
This report is a more granular version of the Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey,
focusing specifically on Indonesian consumption. We surveyed 1,531 consumers in
the country across ten exclusive geographies, both urban and rural areas.
Research analyst                     Telephone          Email
Richard Kersley                      +44 20 7888 0313   richard.kersley@credit-suisse.com
Mujtaba Rana                         +44 20 7883 3773   mujtaba.rana@credit-suisse.com
Kiranjot Grewal                      +44 20 7883 9247   kiranjot.grewal@credit-suisse.com
Jo Walton (Healthcare)               +44 20 7888 0304   jo.walton@credit-suisse.com
Jahanzeb Naseer                      +852 2101 6554     jahanzeb.naseer@credit-suisse.com
Felix Rusli                          +852 2101 6482     felix.rusli@credit-suisse.com
Katie Iorio                          +1 212 538 6386    katheryn.iorio@credit-suisse.com
Arbin Sherchan                       +1 212 325 8967    arbin.sherchan@credit-suisse.com
Daisuke Takato                       +81 3 4550 9671    daisuke.takato@credit-suisse.com

Contributors
Brazil            Andrew Campbell    +55 11 3841 6313   andrew.t.campbell@credit-suisse.com
                  Daniel Federle     +55 11 3841 6311   daniel.federle@credit-suisse.com
                  Gustavo Wigman     +55 11 3841 6302   gustavo.wigman@credit-suisse.com
China             Vincent Chan       +852 2101 6568     vincent.chan@credit-suisse.com
                  Karim Salamatian   +852 2101 7996     karim.salamatian@credit-suisse.com
                  Kevin Yin          +852 2101 7655     kevin.yin@credit-suisse.com
                  Gabriel Chan       +852 2101 6523     gabriel.chan@credit-suisse.com
India             Jatin Chawla       +91 22 6777 3719   jatin.chawla@credit-suisse.com
                  Arnab Mitra        +91 22 6777 3806   arnab.mitra@credit-suisse.com
                  Akshay Saxena      +91 22 6777 3825   akshay.saxena@credit-suisse.com
Indonesia         Ella Nusantoro     +62 21 255 37917   ella.nusantoro@credit-suisse.com
                  Priscilla Tjitra   +62 21 255 37906   priscilla.tjitra@credit-suisse.com
Russia            Victoria Petrova   +7 495 967 8393    victoria.petrova@credit-suisse.com
                  Olga Bystrova      +7 495 967 8244    olga.bystrova@credit-suisse.com
South Africa      Carlos Teixeira    +27 11 012 80 54   carlos.teixeira@credit-suisse.com
                  Ashok Bhundia      +27 11 012 80 94   ashok.bhundia@credit-suisse.com
                  Dean Ginsberg      +27 11 012 80 64   dean.ginsberg@credit-suisse.com
                  Richard Barker     +27 11 012 80 51   richard.barker@credit-suisse.com
Turkey            Onur Muminoglu     +90 212 349 0454   onur.muminoglu@credit-suisse.com
                  Atinc Ozkan        +90 212 349 0453   atinc.ozkan@credit-suisse.com
                  Ates Buldur        +90 212 349 0459   ates.buldur@credit-suisse.com




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                           2
                                                                                                  25 January 2013




Credit Suisse Indonesia research
analysts
Research analysts                      Telephone                                         Email
Ella Nusantoro                   +62 21 2553 7917              ella.nusantoro@credit suisse.com
Teddy Oetomo                     +62 21 2553 7911              teddy.oetomo@credit-suisse.com
Ami Tantri                       +62 21 2553 7976                  ami.tantri@credit-suisse.com
Dian Haryokusumo                 +62 21 2553 7974          dian.haryokusumo@credit-suisse.com
Agus Sandianto                   +62 21 2553 7916             agus.sandianto@credit-suisse.com
Colin McCallum                    +852 2101 6514              colin.mccallum@credit-suisse.com
Paworamon Suvarnatemee            +66 8 1814 4515   paworamon.suvarnatemee@credit-suisse.com
Timothy Ross                       +65 6212 3337                 timothy.ross@credit-suisse.com
Robert Prior-Wandesforde           +65 6212 3707      robert.priorwandesforde@credit-suisse.com




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                 3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            25 January 2013




Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer
Survey 2013: Key themes
Figure 1: Key themes from Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013
  Themes
  (1) Confidence and optimism continue to remain robust                                                                                            Indonesians are the second most confident people after Brazilians, with 64% of respondents
                                                                                                                                                   expecting a better income outlook over the next 12 months and 40% expecting a better
                                                                                                                                                   personal finace outlook over the next six months.


  (2) Higher income growth and expecting further hike                                                                                              This year, more respondents said that their income has increased in the past 12 months.
                                                                                                                                                   Despite that, they expect to get a higher income in the next 12 months. We view this in line
                                                                                                                                                   with the increase in minimum wages in 2012 and the expected increase in 2013.


  (3) Shift towards higher discretionary spending continues                                                                                        This year spending on discretionaty items increased more than that on essentials, especially
                                                                                                                                                   on fashion apparel and mobile phones.



  (4) Consumer preferences lean towards local brands for essentials                                                                                We found that indonesians prefer local brands for essential items. However, appetite for
                                                                                                                                                   foreign brands is higher for discretionary items such as fashion apparel and cosmetics,
                                                                                                                                                   especially among high income earners.

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 2: Indonesians are the most confident after Brazilians                                                                                                Figure 3: Outside Java earns more than Java
                                                 80                                                                                                                                                                   4.0

                                                           67                                                                                                                                                                                                   3.5                                                                       3.5
    Income Outlook next 12M (% of respondents)




                                                 70                  66      64                                                                                                                                       3.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        3.2
                                                                58                     58                                                                                                                                                                                                                      3.0
                                                 60
                                                                                            53 55
                                                                                                                                                                                   Avg monthly income (Rp mn/month)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      3.0
                                                 50                               47                                                                                                                                                                                                   2.5
                                                                                                    40    42                                                                                                          2.5
                                                                                                                                39 38
                                                 40                                                            35 36
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2.0
                                                 30                                                                        26
                                                                                                                                                22 22
                                                                                                                                           19                                                                         1.5
                                                 20

                                                 10                                                                                                                                                                   1.0

                                                  0                                                                                                                                                                   0.5
                                                            Brazil          Indonesia        Saudi           China          India          Russia

                                                 Better less worse 2012                 Better less worse 2011          Better less worse 2010                                                                        0.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Total                      Urban                    Rural                    Java               Non-Java
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                         Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 4: Shift towards higher discretionary spending                                                                                                        Figure 5: Consumers preferences lean towards local
continues                                                                                                                                                    brands for essentials
                                                 30                                                                                                                                                              100

                                                 25
                                                                                                                                                               % of respondents buying local brands




                                                                                                                                   Fashion

                                                 20                                                                                                                                                                   95
    % change from last year survey




                                                 15
                                                                                                                       Carbonated drinks                                                                              90
                                                 10                                                                                  Basic mobile
                                                                          Smartphone                                                     phone
                                                  5                                                                             Property Bottled Water
                                                       Cars     Jewellery
                                                                         Watches                         Tissues       Cosmetics Femine hygiene                                                                       85
                                                  0
                                                            Internet Access                                                                                                                                                                            Cigarette                        Instant noodles                            Bottled water
                                                                           Sport shoes &                                                Instant Noodles
                                                  -5DVD Player
                                                              Traditional TV wear                                         Dairy products
                                                                                                  Perfumes                                                                                                            80
                                                 -10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            <Rp1,000k


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Rp1,000k -

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Rp1,500k -

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Rp2,000k -

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Rp3,000k -

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Rp5,000k -

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Rp10,000k-

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Rp10,000k -

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            >Rp15,000k
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Rp15,000k
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Rp1,500k

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Rp2,000k

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Rp3,000k

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Rp5,000k

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Rp7,500k




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Rp15,000k




                                                                                                         Cigarettes
                                                 -15
                                                       0                    20               40                60                 80               100
                                                           % of respondent which have bought essentials and discretionary goods
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                         Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           4
                                                                                                 25 January 2013




Key themes from the eight
emerging markets
We highlight four key themes:
(1) Consumer confidence improving
The survey suggests that, after stalling in 2012, confidence is strengthening—a feature our
macro views would endorse and expect. Some 37% believe their personal finances will
improve over the next six months while 9% expect some deterioration. This marks a net
expected improvement of 3% points on a like-for-like basis. However, our survey casts a
spotlight on the striking contrasts across the emerging world.
Optimism is strongest and improving in Brazil, China and Indonesia. At the other end of
the scale, the greatest degree of pessimism in financial prospects was recorded in South
Africa, Russia and Turkey (albeit improving). Troubling are the effective “fault lines” that
still seem to exist between rich and poor in some countries. For example, our survey
revealed that nearly as many South Africans (22%) predicted a worse financial position as
those who expected some improvement (28%). We remember—if in a far more extreme
manner—how severe disparity in experience for Egypt stood out in our 2010 survey.
(2) Income trends are the key driver—who has it?
The outlook for and the distribution of income has replaced the influence of food prices as
the determinant of optimism. The countries with the highest income growth expectations
display the greatest optimism—Brazil, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. Wage expectations
remain relatively depressed in Turkey, Russia and South Africa. However, equally notable
is the fact that the highest income earners are the most optimistic in every country. In
certain countries, that is particularly stark—South Africa and India for example. In contrast,
Brazil reflects far greater equality of expectations.
As much as regional contrasts in the income outlook, age profile within the countries is a
notable differentiator. In a number of the countries, the high income consumers are
clustered in the younger age brackets of the working population. China is a stand out
example. Moreover, the incomes are not only higher but are typically growing more
rapidly. This picture is in marked contrast to the West. The drivers at work in the emerging
world are relative educational attainment, urban/rural migration and the necessity of
technology based skill-sets.
(3) Discretionary spending back on track
Understanding what younger, wealthier and typically better educated consumers will
spend their money upon is a key investment theme as this is where growth is likely to be
strongest. This would structurally point to areas of discretionary spending. Our survey
illustrates that this theory is borne out in practice. The survey asks consumers what
categories of spending they have been spending most upon and effectively what they
expect to prioritise looking forward. Having stalled last year, discretionary spending looks
back on track and should maintain its momentum.
In terms of specifics, meat and protein gets a higher profile on the menu. A thirst for
technology, smartphones and tablets, is supported by ever greater expansion in internet
penetration. This was a theme last year and is if anything an even stronger one. Bigger
ticket items such as cars and property also display strong prospects though notably
without the typical appetite for borrowing we have historically seen in the West.
Interestingly, the outlook for services such as healthcare and education seems more
muted. However, it seems the state is increasingly stepping in to supply the former while
private educational spend has simply been exceptionally strong in recent years and seeing




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                5
                                                                                                                     25 January 2013


a moderation from a high base. It remains a structural story in our view, with India still
displaying it best of all.
(4) Brand recognition … momentum and critical mass
The track record being built by the survey is allowing us to delve deeper into our analysis of
brands. We can analyse with the help of our Databook brands displaying momentum, where
local brands hold sway over global rivals and the income sensitivity of brands. Important
themes have emerged: (i) the significance of the unbranded segment of spending; (ii) the
resilience of domestic brands in the essential areas of spending space and their
attractiveness to acquisitive global companies; and (iii) the aspirational quality (or lack
thereof) of specific brands in the discretionary space, which plays to the international names.
With improving income trends being the key driver of the emerging consumer structurally,
and also a key differentiator of the immediate outlook in the survey as suggested above,
we specifically analyse brands with this theme in mind. With high income earners being
where income growth expectations and optimism are the highest, we want to identify
which brands exhibit momentum or dominance in this category. Equally, at the low income
end where a transition from unbranded to branded products is likely, we wish to be
positioned to exploit that. We would be concerned about brands that are losing momentum
and also those whose attractions peter out markedly higher up the income scale given this
is the direction of travel in emerging consumer markets.

Figure 6: Brands dominating their sector or having momentum within an income bracket
                                                                               Criteria
    Ticker                Company                       Trend                      Dominating
                                                                                                        CS Rating
                                                Low income   High income   Low income     High income
  AAPL US                 Apple Inc.                             x                              x       Outperform
  BMW.DE                    BMW                                  x                                      Outperform
  BRBY L                   Burberry                              x                                      Outperform
   2319 HK      China Mengniu Dairy Company                                    x                x       Outperform
   1929 HK        Chow Tai Fook Jewellery           x            x                              x        Neutral
  HGTX3 BZ               Cia. Hering                x            x                              x        Neutral
   DGE LN                 Diageo plc                x            x             x                x       Outperform
  HUVR IN         Hindustan Unilev er Limited                    x             x                x       Outperform
  005380 KS           Hyundai Motor Co              x            x                                      Outperform
   2331 HK                Li Ning                   x                                                    Neutral
   LREN3                Lojas Renner                             x                              x        Neutral
   OR FP                 L'Oreal SA                 x            x                                       Neutral
   AMAR3              Marisa Lojas SA               x            x             x                x       Outperform
   MSIL IN          Maruti Suzuki India Ltd                      x             x                x        Neutral
    MDLZ            Mondelēz International          x            x                                      Outperform
   NKE US                 Nike, Inc                 x            x             x                x        Neutral
    RI FP               Pernod Ricard                            x                              x       Outperform
    SAB L                SAB Miller                 x            x             x                x       Outperform
  005930 KS            Samsung Group                x            x             x                x       Outperform
   UHR VX                  Swatch                   x            x                                      Outperform
    ULVR                   Unilever                 x            x                                       Neutral

Source: Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey 2013

Country highlights
Key highlights include:
Brazil: The beat goes on
The Brazilian consumer remains the most optimistic in our survey, with confidence raised
year-on-year despite an economic slowdown. A definitive characteristic of this confidence
is its breadth; both low and high income consumers are confident, unlike the findings for
many other developing economies. Although an implicit savings ratio seems to have
increased, it remains substantially lower than the other larger economies. Momentum



Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                    6
                                                                                              25 January 2013


remains in discretionary products such as technology, fashion and spirits. Education is
also a priority.
Key stock recommendations: Anhanguera, Brasil Foods, Hypermarcas, Marisa S.A.,
Qualicorp, SAB Miller, Cinemark, Casino Guichard, Nissan, Intertek
China: An educated consumer
Optimism amongst the Chinese consumer remains relatively robust against a weaker
economic background. Much of this increased strength can be attributed to the low income
brackets rather than the high. Attitudes surrounding savings remain unhindered, although
the routes adopted to achieve this are changing; the increased role of the stock market
and life products for savings. The key feature of spending is a heavy focus on technology
and education, with the strongest spend in smartphones out of any country surveyed.
Key stock recommendations: Belle, Intime, Tingyi, Chow Tai Fook, Naspers, Prada, Yum!,
Mead Johnson, TOTO, HSBC, Richemont, Wynn, Las Vegas Sands, MGM resorts, Nissan

India: A sum of different parts
Although the optimism of the Indian consumer remains robust, there is an increasing
divergence between the confidence levels of rich and poor consumers: poor consumers
demonstrate a sharp decline in confidence. Spending momentum in education continues
to stride ahead, supported by a number of government initiatives. Discretionary spend
categories are the stronger areas within India though appear relatively more mute vs.
other countries, with India in fact being the only country surveyed showing a fall in the
number of smartphones bought for example. Aggressive promotion of property investment
has led to positive expectations for the direction of property prices.
Key stock recommendations: ITC, Bajaj Auto, Emami, HDFC Bank, Titan, Shiseido, Tumi
Indonesia: BRIC becomes BIIC
The Indonesian consumer continues to grow increasingly confident, corresponding with
the trend growth seen in the Indonesian economy. The increases in minimum wages have
contributed to the relatively steeper growth in confidence amongst the lower earners.
Rising incomes and lowered food prices have resulted in increased spending on
discretionary goods, with fashion and holidays being items of choice. As the vast majority
of Indonesia remains offline, technology growth remains concentrated in basic mobile
phones rather than internet enabled devices such as smartphones.
Key stock recommendations: Astra International, Indofood CBP, Erajaya Swasembada,
Mitra Adiperkasa, Bank Central Asia, Unicharm, Daihatsu, Prudential, Sumitomo, Yakult
Russia: The poor BRIC relation
Low optimism, poor income growth and a large disparity between the expectations of rich
and poor consumers characterised Russia in 2012. Inflation rates are forecast to be one of
the highest out of our survey. With a large proportion of income being devoted to food,
Russian consumers have been constrained in spending elsewhere though this should
ease. At present, only discretionary spend categories in reach of the rich remain robust,
with others on the whole weak. Technology is the strongest feature.
Key stock recommendations: Magnit, MegaFon, MTS, Yandex, Mail.Ru, JT, Fast Retailing
Saudi Arabia: Contrasting fortunes
Although the Saudi Arabian consumer remains one of the most optimistic in our survey,
optimism has dropped relatively year-on-year post 2011’s boost from the major
government initiatives for employment and pay. It remains highly progressive in relation to
incomes. There is high growth in highly penetrated markets, in particular, computers,
smartphones, fashion apparel and perfumes. There remains considerable structural
opportunity for the financial industry to tap into the deep pool of savings which are
currently predominantly held in bank accounts.
Key stock recommendations: Apple, Marriott, BMW, Accor, Ralph Lauren, Starwood, Saks




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                             7
                                                                                              25 January 2013


South Africa: Challenges and opportunities
South Africa is a new edition to the Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey for 2013.
Consumer optimism levels in South Africa fall toward the lower end of the survey
spectrum. The polarity of experience within the population is concerning. Nearly as many
South African consumers predicted a worse financial position as those who expected
some improvement. Despite broad pay rises for many, it does not appear to have
completely assuaged negative perceptions of the financial outlook of low income earners
which has impacted the pattern of spending and its relative position vs other countries in
the survey. A major distinguishing feature of South Africa is the institutionalised savings
and a more developed banking system.
Key stock recommendations: Foschini, African Bank, Pick n Pay, Lewis, Medpro, SAB
Turkey: Potential emerging
While optimism is relatively weak compared to other countries in the survey, Turkey has
seen an improvement in overall confidence, with greatest improvement amongst the
higher earners. They are comparable with Saudi Arabia. Spending patterns more generally
are beginning to look like those of a middle-income country, with smartphones, computers,
internet access, cars and holidays seeing some of the strongest gains. Growth in alcohol
spend has not been deterred by recent tax hikes. Bank penetration remains poor,
indicating a structural opportunity.
Key stock recommendations: Arcelik Coca Cola Icecek, Migros, Tofas, Telenor, Diageo




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                             8
Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




                                 Stock recommendations: Emerging markets
                                 Figure 7: Plays on the developing consumer
                                                                                                                                                                       Current Target
                                                                                                                                                                                        EV /                           3 year  3 year
                                                                                                                                                                        Price   Price            PE     P/B     ROE
                                  Stock           Country                                             Investm ent story                                                                Ebitda                           EPS Revenue     Rating
                                                                                                                                                                        (local (Local         (2012e) (2012e) (2012e)
                                                                                                                                                                                      (2012e)                         grow th grow th
                                                                                                                                                                        CCY)    CCY)
                                                            Benefit from recovering profitability and higher earnings visibility. 30% gross margin ramp up
                                  Anhanguera       Brazil   expected from integration of acquired assets. Campus maturation & improving intake cycle to expand            34.3     40.0   16.9   117.0    2.5    2%    101%      20% Outperform
                                                            gross margin.
                                                            Superior product portfolio and distribution assets to continue driving market share gains and
                                  Brasil Foods     Brazil   consensus beats. Expect positive earnings momentum due to normalisation of operations after asset             45.1     45.0   15.5    28.7    2.8   10%     21%      10% Outperform
                                                            sw ap.
                                                            #1 in OTC and branded generics drugs, #3 in generics. Capex and w orking capital requirements
                                  Hypermarcas      Brazil   should start to ease and profitability is expected to be restored in both the pharma and consumer             16.2     16.0   16.2    33.9    1.8    5%     -        12% Outperform
                                                            divisions.
                                                            Scope for acceleration in store productivity and profitability as the company benefits from a rapidly
                                  Marisa S.A.      Brazil                                                                                                                 32.5     28.0   16.2    33.8    7.0   21%     27%       9% Outperform
                                                            maturing sales area, coupled w ith internally-driven initiatives to improve sales floor efficiency.
                                                            Believe there are significant opportunities in the affinity market and in the convergence of health and
                                  Qualicorp        Brazil                                                                                                                 22.4     22.5   36.3    66.5    3.1    5%     55%      23% Outperform
                                                            financial services, both in w hich Qualicorp is w ell positioned to benefit.

                                                            Recovery in 1Q13 to be driven by easy comp base, cold w inter and Chinese New Year. Benefit from
                                  Belle            China                                                                                                                  18.0     19.0   20.0    28.6    6.3   22%     13%      15% Outperform
                                                            expected stronger underlying economy as translates into rising discretionary in 2H13 and onw ards.

                                                            Most established sales netw ork - currently w ith 1,700 stores and to increase store counts by 200pa.
                                  Chow Tai Fook    China                                                                                                                  13.2     12.1   15.2    19.2    4.2   22%     23%      29%      Neutral
                                                            Strong brand recognition. Better access to new department stores and economies of scale.
                                                            New ly matured stores are the most effective contributor to earnings grow th. Is developing modern
                                  Intime           China    shopping mall formats as a part of a large scale project - gives key advantage in obtaining prime             10.5     11.8   18.2    20.0    2.5   11%     15%      23% Outperform
                                                            location.

                                                            Rising brand aw areness is expected to lead to the highest sales grow th among major luxury brands.
                                  Prada            China                                                                                                                  71.6     78.0   23.4    40.6    9.6   24%     47%      27% Outperform
                                                            Probability of positive earnings surprises in 2013 is high - may lead to consensus upgrades.

                                                            Stronger consumer confidence, higher discretionary spending and demand for brands may benefit
                                  Tencent          China    Tencent as it is a strong Internet brand. Tencent should have different business cycle as compared           269.0    292.0   27.9    39.3   13.8   36%     30%      38% Outperform
                                                            to the economy.
                                                            Looking into 2013, w e expect Tingyi to deliver strong grow th on the back of (1) core business
                                  Tingyi           China                                                                                                                  21.5     27.0   16.9    39.6    7.4   19%     26%      20% Outperform
                                                            turnaround and (2) more synergy from Pepsi bottling business to emerge in the next 2-3 years.
                                                            Tw o w heeler market still has high grow th potential. Positive impact of long term upgradation trend in
                                  Bajaj Auto       India                                                                                                                2061.8   2537.0   14.6    19.6    9.8   50%         4%   15% Outperform
                                                            market as it is strongest in upper segments. Export volumes grow ing at over 15% CAGR.

                                                            Strong potential of the current pipeline of ramp ups. Likelihood of margin expansion ahead on low er
                                  Emami            India                                                                                                                 579.9    690.0   29.2    33.9   12.4   37%     20%      17% Outperform
                                                            input costs. Scope for re-rating as one the highest ROE's and dividend ratios but at discount to peers.
                                                            Leadership in the retail segment to continue to drive stronger than industry grow th. Profitability
                                  HDFC Bank        India    remains strong on healthy margins and low credit cost. Strong product origination and credit appraisal       653.6    770.0   18.1    29.3    5.2   18%     29%      21% Outperform
                                                            skills.
                                                            Has absolute pricing pow er as has 75% market share. Expect cigarette EBIT grow th to stay in a
                                  ITC              India                                                                                                                 288.7    329.0   26.5    36.6   12.0   33%     21%      16% Outperform




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    25 January 2013
                                                            range of 15-20pc irrespective of increase in taxation. Built one of India's top 5 FMCG businesses.
                                                            Has very high grow th potential as over 90% of the market is unorganized. Company w ill continue to
                                  Titan            India                                                                                                                 269.0    341.0   27.5    39.8   16.5   41%     28%      23% Outperform
                                                            gain market share w ith aggressive additions in expanding retail space.

                                 Note: Current price as of market close on 21 January 2013. Source: Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey 2013
9
Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




                                 Figure 8: Plays on the developing consumer
                                                                                                                                                                       Current Target
                                                                                                                                                                                        EV /                           3 year  3 year
                                                                                                                                                                        Price   Price            PE     P/B     ROE
                                 Stock          Country                                               Investm ent story                                                                Ebitda                           EPS Revenue     Rating
                                                                                                                                                                        (local (Local         (2012e) (2012e) (2012e)
                                                                                                                                                                                      (2012e)                         grow th grow th
                                                                                                                                                                        CCY)    CCY)
                                 Astra Intl.    Indonesia Attractive exposure to consumer sector. Expect recovery in earnings grow th. Attractive entry point.            7750    9400    14.9   17.6     5.2   28%     20%      16% Outperform
                                 Bank Central             Indonesia’s largest transaction bank. As of 3Q12, BBCA has one of the low est LDR (68.9%) of the
                                                Indonesia                                                                                                                 9300   11000    16.5   21.1     5.4   24%     12%      14% Outperform
                                 Asia                     Indonesian banking system, w hich implies that they have one of the highest grow th capacites.
                                 Erajaya                    Beneficiary of rising income. New handset import regulation to be effective by end-Mar. Forex risk
                                                Indonesia                                                                                                                 2750    3300    20.2   31.2     3.7   18%     41%      40% Outperform
                                 Sw asembada                w ill be borne by the principal.
                                                            Noodle is its major contributor and continue to provide healthy profitability. Dairy expansion to come
                                 Indofood CBP   Indonesia                                                                                                                 7950    8100    14.2   23.5     4.5   19%     13%      12% Outperform
                                                            on stream. New JVs to expand product portfolio.
                                 Mitra                      Specialty stores continue to be the key driver. Strategic expansion. Limited and manageable impact on
                                                Indonesia                                                                                                                 6400    8100    12.7   29.5     5.9   21%     26%      21% Outperform
                                 Adiperkasa                 current regulation changes.
                                                            Exceptional grow th (c25% 3Y CAGR); excellent management execution and communication; and
                                 Magnit          Russia                                                                                                                   46.2    42.0    24.5   52.2     9.0   23%     34%      24% Outperform
                                                            upside risks given supportive regulatory environment in the sector.
                                                            Consumer internet names strong beneficiaries of trends in mobile data as consumer internet stocks
                                 Mail.Ru         Russia                                                                                                                   33.7    55.0    14.6   33.7     1.8    6%     24%      29% Outperform
                                                            are highly geared to increasing mobile internet traffic via online advertising and consumption spend.
                                                            #1 position in mobile data position in Russia, better netw orks, strong execution and business
                                 MegaFon         Russia                                                                                                                   25.9    30.0     4.5   11.1     1.8   37%      3%       8% Outperform
                                                            concentration on the Russian market. Expect Russian mobile to deliver 20-25% CAGR over next 3ys.
                                                            MTS as a second w inner of the Russian smartphone trend w hich has also show n strong execution
                                 MTS             Russia                                                                                                                   19.1    22.0     5.1   12.8     5.4   43%     11%       5% Outperform
                                                            in mobile data segment and commitment to infrastructure build.
                                                            Consumer internet names strong beneficiaries of trends in mobile data as consumer internet stocks
                                 Yandex          Russia                                                                                                                   22.9    29.0    23.6   39.3     7.8   22%     34%      36% Outperform
                                                            are highly geared to increasing mobile internet traffic via online advertising and consumption spend.
                                                 South      Market leader in low er-income consumer finance. It also ow ns a furniture retailer, Ellerines. Recent
                                 African Bank                                                                                                                             31.0    49.5     5.6    9.0     1.7   20%     16%      18% Outperform
                                                 Africa     investor concerns about non-performing loans and slow ing asset grow th are overdone in our view .
                                                 South      Grow th is supported by its supply agreement w ith Cipla India w hich gives it access to a large new
                                 Cipla Medpro                                                                                                                              8.9     9.5     9.2   15.3     2.0   12%     20%      17% Outperform
                                                 Africa     product pipeline, w hile the low cost of the drugs it sources from Cipla India help to support margins.
                                                 South      Valuation is attractive, and cheapest entry into SA retail sector. Dividend yield is attractive at c7%.
                                 Lew is Group                                                                                                                             68.9    90.0     6.5    7.9     1.3   16%     12%       8% Outperform
                                                 Africa     We believe that risks associated w ith "credit life" revenues are over blow n.
                                                 South      Good balance betw een internet-driven earnings grow th and strong pay-TV cash flow , see strong
                                 Naspers                                                                                                                                 548.0   500.0     9.3   43.7     4.4   10%     32%      17% Outperform
                                                 Africa     grow th potential in Tencent from its mobile internet, online advertising and eCommerce investments.
                                 Pick n Pay      South      32% market share and margins of 1.8%. New CEO w ith strong track record as a retailer should result
                                                                                                                                                                          44.6    49.0    10.4   31.1     8.8   26%     16%      10% Outperform
                                 Holdings        Africa     in the group recovering significantly, w e estimate margin to more than double over the next 3yrs
                                 The Foschini    South      Offering covers low er, middle and upper end consumers. Well positioned to take advantage of
                                                                                                                                                                         125.2   158.0    10.1   16.2     4.1   25%     21%      14% Outperform
                                 Group           Africa     grow th prospects into Africa. Expect group to sell its stake in RCS w hich w ill release value.
                                                            Strong brand aw areness, distribution pow er and R&D efforts. Grow th initiatives - have announced
                                 Arcelik         Turkey                                                                                                                   12.5    12.5    11.2   15.6     2.4   16%     15%      16% Outperform
                                                            they may buy a premium brand in developed w orld or extend production into new emerging countries.
                                 Coca Cola                  c70% market share in Turkish sparkling beverages. CCI has market leading shares in some of the
                                                 Turkey                                                                                                                   41.4    37.2    11.2   19.0     5.0   25%      6%       6%      Neutral
                                 Icecek                     w orld’s least saturated markets. 60% of its 360mn population is below 30 years of age.
                                                            Its strong brand name and best store locations enable up to 40% shelf price differential. Its attractive
                                 Migros          Turkey                                                                                                                   22.6    23.8    14.9   -14.4    3.0    5%      NA      13% Outperform
                                                            store netw ork could mean a lot for a strategic investor looking for inorganic grow th in Turkey.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    25 January 2013
                                                            Its low -to-mid segment models could benefit from the potential car penetration grow th in Turkey in the
                                 Tofas           Turkey                                                                                                                   11.1    11.4     8.9   10.8     3.1   24%      0%       6% Outperform
                                                            long-run. c73% of the capacity is locked by take-or-pay export contracts.

                                 Note: Current price as of market close on 21 January 2013. Source: Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey 2013
10
Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




                                 The Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey 2013
                                 Figure 9: Countries surveyed




                                                                                                     25 January 2013
                                 Source: Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey 2013, IMF, EIU, UN
11
                                                          25 January 2013




Table of contents
Key themes from Indonesia                           13 
The third Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey   14 
Key sector selections                               28 
    Automotive                                      29 
    Consumer                                        33 
    Telecoms                                        43 
    Healthcare                                      47 
    Property                                        51 
    Banks                                           53 
Key stock selections                                56 
    Astra International (ASII.JK / ASII IJ)         57 
    Indofood CBP (ICBP.JK / ICBP IJ)                59 
    Erajaya Swasembada Tbk (ERAA.JK / ERAA IJ)      61 
    Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI.JK / MAPI IJ)            63 
    Bank Central Asia (BBCA.JK / BBCA IJ)           65 
Appendix: Respondents’ summary                      67 




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                        12
                                                                                                               25 January 2013




Key themes from Indonesia
■   Confidence and optimism continue to remain robust. Indonesia is the second-                 Indonesia is the second-
    most confident country, after Brazil, among the eight emerging economies that we            most confident country
    surveyed, with 64% consumers expecting better incomes over the next 12 months.              among the eight emerging
    Indonesians are also the second-most optimistic consumers within the eight emerging         countries we surveyed
    countries that we surveyed, with 40% of the respondents also having a better personal
    finance outlook over the next six months, in view the surge in minimum wages of an
    average 20% in 2013 (it ranges by province between 9% and 46%). This is despite
    Indonesia’s GDP per capita being the second-lowest among the eight countries that
    we surveyed.

■   Higher income growth and expecting a further hike. In the survey, more                      This year, Indonesians are
    respondents said that their income has increased in the past 12 months compared             earning a higher income and
    with the previous years’ survey. The hike is observed to be particularly higher for those   expect it to increase further
    in the rural areas and in places outside Java. We believe that this is in view of the
    increase in the minimum wages of an average 10% in 2012 across the provinces
    (ranging between 3% and 19%). More people in the lower and middle income groups
    have seen their income increase versus last year, according to this year’s survey.
■   Shift towards higher discretionary spending continues. Overall spending on                  Spending on discretionary
    discretionary items has increased more than on the essentials. This bodes well with         items has increased, as
    our thesis that the purchasing power of the middle income group is rising as the            Indonesia’s GDP per capita
    country’s GDP per capita has doubled over the past five years to US$3,680 in 2012.          rises
■   Consumer preferences lean towards local brands for essentials. According to our             Indonesian consumers
    survey, Indonesian consumers continue to prefer local brands for essential items such       continue to prefer local
    as instant noodles, bottled water and cigarettes. However, a different trend is             brands for essentials
    observed in the purchase of discretionary items. We found that appetite for foreign
    brands is more for purchase of discretionary items such as fashion apparels and
    cosmetics, especially with the higher income group. This is consistent with the findings
    from our survey across the emerging countries, where consumers appear to stick with
    the local brands that they have always used for staples while foreign brands appeal
    more for discretionary items, especially with the higher income group.

■   Key stock preferences. We identify five stocks that bode well with the findings of this
    survey. They are: (1) Astra International, (2) Bank Central Asia, (3) Indofood CBP, (4)
    Mitra Adiperkasa, and (5) Erajaya Swasembada.




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                             13
                                                                                                                                                            25 January 2013




The third Credit Suisse Indonesia
Consumer Survey
This report details the findings of the third Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey                                                The third Indonesia
conducted around 3Q12, as part of the survey that Credit Suisse Research Institute                                                   Consumer Survey …
conducts in eight emerging countries—Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, Saudi
Arabia, Turkey, and South Africa (new addition). CS Research Institute engaged the
leading global market research firm, AC Nielsen to conduct face-to-face interviews with
over 14,000 consumers. The survey is a comprehensive and exclusive study of the
consumption patterns in each country as well as individuals’ outlook about the future.
The third survey in Indonesia was carried out with 1,531 participants, across ten areas—                                             ... was conducted in ten
six located in the Java area (including Jakarta, Botabek, Surabaya, Kab                                                              areas—six in Java and four
Gresik/Lamongan/Sidoarjo, Bandung, Kab Bandung) and four outside Java (including                                                     outside Java
Medan, Kab Deli Serdang, Makasar, Kab Gowa). Participants from Java accounted for
70% of the total respondents, 66% lived in the urban areas and 49% were male. This
composition is similar to our previous two surveys.
There were 125 questions posed to each respondent in 12 categories: (1) general income
and wealth, (2) autos, (3) food & beverage, (4) personal care, (5) branded goods, (6)
computers & TV, (7) mobile phones, (8) Internet, (9) travel, (10) property, (11) education,
and (12) healthcare.

Figure 10: Indonesia survey summary and key economic statistics
  Statistics
 GDP (2012)                           $894.9 billion

 GDP per Capita (2012)                     $3,660
                                                           Deli Serdang ( 5% )
 Population (2012)                    244.5 million

 Geographical Area                    1.90 mn km2
                                                        Medan ( 10% )              Botabek ( 10% )

 Number of Cities (in excess of 2            5
 million people)
                                                                                                                      Makasar ( 10% )

 Gini Coefficient (2009)                    39.4
 Average Inflation (2012E)                 4.4%

 Average Inflation (2013E)                 5.1%
 Real GDP Growth (2012E)                   6.0%

 Real GDP Growth (2013E)                   6.3%

 Real private consumption growth           5.39%
 (2012E)                                                        Jakarta ( 20% )
                                                                 GDP: $70.7bn            Surabaya ( 13% )
 Real private consumption growth           5.61%
 (2013E)
                                                       Bandung ( 18% )                                        Gowa ( 5% )
 Consumption as a % of GDP                 54.5%
                                                                           Gresik, Lamongan ,
 (2012)                                                                      Sidoarjo ( 9% )


  2013 CS Consumer Survey
                                                           Note:
  Number of Respondents : 1,531                            1. All city level GDP figures are 2010 nominal est. (MGI), total GDP for the country shown in nominal US$.
                                                           2. * % of survey sampled from this area
  Across 10 geographic locations                           3. Country GDP, GDP per capita, inflation, population data from IMF, Gini from UNDP, area from CIA World
                                                               Factbook, city population from CityPopulation
  66% in Urban areas; 34% in Rural areas                   4. Real private consumption growth and consumption as a % of GDP from Oxford Economics

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013, IMF, EIU, UN




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                          14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    25 January 2013



Confidence and optimism continue to remain robust
Indonesia is the second-most confident country, after Brazil, among the eight emerging                                                                                                                                                                 Indonesia is the second-
economies that we surveyed, with 64% respondents expecting a better income over the                                                                                                                                                                    most confident country
next 12 months. Indonesians are also the second-most optimistic consumers within the                                                                                                                                                                   among the eight countries
eight emerging countries that we surveyed, with 40% having a better personal finance                                                                                                                                                                   we surveyed
outlook over the next six months, in line with the surge in minimum wages in 2013 of an
average 20% (it ranges by province between 9% and 46%). This is despite Indonesia’s
GDP per capita being the second-lowest among the eight countries that we surveyed.

Figure 11: Indonesia is most confident after Brazil…                                                                                                               Figure 12: …despite the country’s low GDP per capita
                                                          80                                                                                                                                        25000

                                                                67
   Income Outlook next 12M (% of respondents)




                                                          70              66       64
                                                                                                                                                                                                    20000
                                                                     58                      58




                                                                                                                                                                       2012E GDP per capita (USD)
                                                          60
                                                                                                   53 55
                                                          50                            47                                                                                                          15000
                                                                                                             40     42
                                                                                                                                        39 38
                                                          40                                                             35 36
                                                                                                                                                                                                    10000
                                                          30                                                                       26
                                                                                                                                                     22 22
                                                                                                                                                19
                                                          20                                                                                                                                         5000

                                                          10
                                                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                                           0


                                                                                                                                                                                                              Saudi Arabia


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Russia


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Brazil


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Turkey


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             South Africa


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            China


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Indonesia


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                India
                                                                 Brazil            Indonesia           Saudi        China              India    Russia

                                                          Better less worse 2012              Better less worse 2011             Better less worse 2010

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                               Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 13: Do you think the state of your own personal finances over the next six months
will be better, worse or about the same?
                                                          70
                                                                     63
    Personal Finance outlook next 6M (% of respondents)




                                                                                   59
                                                          60
                                                                           53
                                                          50
                                                                                                  40                        39           39                                                              40
                                                          40                                                                                                                                        36
                                                                                                        31                        31             31 32 32
                                                                                                               28                                                     28
                                                          30

                                                          20                                                                                                                                                                      16 17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             12
                                                          10

                                                           0
                                                                          Brazil                  Indonesia                      China                Saudi                             India                                 Russia

                                                                                    Better less worse 2012                   Better less worse 2011           Better less worse 2010

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Higher income growth and expecting further hike
This year’s survey reveals that more respondents saw their income increase in the past 12                                                                                                                                                              Indonesians earned a higher
months as compared with the previous years’ survey results. The hike is observed to be                                                                                                                                                                 income in FY12 due to the
particularly higher for people living in the rural areas and outside Java. We view that this is                                                                                                                                                        average 10% rise in the
in view of the increase in minimum wages of an average 10% in 2012 across the                                                                                                                                                                          country’s minimum wage…
provinces, with the range between 3% and 19%. According to our survey, more people in


Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          15
                                                                                                                                        25 January 2013


the lower and middle income groups have seen their income increase in FY12 compared
with the previous year’s survey results.
The respondents were also more optimistic about getting a higher income in the next 12                                   And expect higher income
months, especially the lower and middle income group. We believe that this is on the back                                with an average 20%
of an announcement of an increase in the minimum wage of an average 20% across                                           minimum wage increase in
provinces in 2013 (ranges from 9% to 46%). Our survey also indicated a higher                                            2013
percentage of respondents expecting an increase of more than 10% in their monthly
income, as compared with the previous years’ study.

Figure 14: In the past 12 months, respondents’ income has risen ...
                                                                                             Age                              Monthly income
 % of respondents     Total       Urban   Rural       Java        Non-Java   18-29       30-45       46-55       56-65 <Rp1.5mn Rp1.5-7.5mn >Rp7.5mn
2012
Down to flat              10         12           7          10          8           8       11              8      12       13           9         18
Flat to +10%              77         74       85             77         77       78          78          75         78       83          77         56
>+10%                     13         14           8          12         15       13          11          16         10        5          14         26
2011
Down to flat              19         18       19             17         21       13          21          22         16       23          17         15
Flat to +10%              72         72       74             74         70       76          70          75         79       74          72         62
>+10%                         9      10           7           9          9       11          10              3       5        3          11         23
2010
Down to flat              14         15       12             12         16       11          15          15         11       14          13          -
Flat to +10%              77         76       80             79         72       78          76          76         84       83          75         81
>+10%                         9       9           9           9         12       11              9           9       5        4          11         19
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 15: ... and is expected to continue to rise in the next 12 months
                                                                                             Age                              Monthly income
 % of respondents     Total       Urban   Rural       Java        Non-Java   18-29       30-45       46-55       56-65 <Rp1.5mn Rp1.5-7.5mn >Rp7.5mn
2012
Down to flat                  3       3           2           3          2           3           2           4       1        4           2          8
Flat to +10%              57         51       65             55         59       54          57          53         64       71          54         35
>+10%                     40         46       33             42         39       42          41          43         35       24          44         57
2011
Down to flat                  6       7           5           5         10           4           8           6       6        5           6         15
Flat to +10%              69         67       76             71         67       70          65          79         77       77          69         30
>+10%                     24         26       19             24         22       26          27          15         16       18          25         55
2010
Down to flat                  4       4           2           3          4           2           4           4       4        6           4          -
Flat to +10%              70         69       77             73         67       72          70          71         81       80          68         57
>+10%                     26         27       21             23         28       26          26          25         14       14          28         43
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                      16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         25 January 2013



Figure 16: Increase in minimum wages in 2012                                                                        Figure 17: Expected increase in minimum wages in 2013
                                      20                                                                                                                                 50
                                      18                                                                                                                                 45
                                      16                                                                                                                                 40
FY12 increase in min wage (%)




                                                                                                                     FY13E increase in min. wage (%)
                                                                                                 Average 10%
                                      14                                                                                                                                 35
                                                                                                 increase
                                      12                                                                                                                                 30
                                      10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Average 20%
                                                                                                                                                                         25                                                                                                                                                              increase
                                                  8                                                                                                                      20
                                                  6                                                                                                                      15
                                                  4
                                                                                                                                                                         10
                                                  2
                                                                                                                                                                          5
                                           -
                                                                                                                                                                          -
                                                                    North Sulawesi
                                                                    Dki Jakarta
                                                                    Central Kalimantan
                                                                    North Sumatera
                                                                    Bengkulu
                                                                    Lampung
                                                                    South Sumatera
                                                                    West Kalimantan
                                                                    West Sulawesi
                                                                    Jambi
                                                                    South East Sulawesi
                                                                    Riau
                                                                    Yogyakarta
                                                                    Gorontalo
                                                                    South Sulawesi
                                                                    West Sumatera
                                                                    East Nusa Tenggara
                                                                    South Kalimantan
                                                                    Bali
                                                                    East Kalimantan
                                                                    Bangka Belitung
                                                                    Maluku
                                                                    North Maluku
                                                                    Papua
                                                                    Central Sulawesi
                                                                    West Nusa Tenggara
                                                                    Banten
                                                                    Riau Islands
                                                                    Aceh
                                                                    West Papua




                                                                                                                                                                               East Kalimantan
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jakarta
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Riau Islands
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Bengkulu
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      South Sulawesi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       West Kalimantan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         West Sumatera
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Central Kalimantan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Bangka Belitung
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jambi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Aceh
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 South Kalimantan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    North Sulawesi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      North Sumatera
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Papua
Source: Directorate General for Industrial Relations and Manpower                                                   Source: Directorate General for Industrial Relations and Manpower
Social Guarantee                                                                                                    Social Guarantee

Income of Indonesia-ex. Java population grew at a
higher pace than that of Java
As a result of the increase in minimum wage in 2012 by around 10%, our respondents’                                                                                                                                                                                                      People living outside Java
average monthly income increased to Rp3.2 mn, compared with Rp2.9 mn in the previous                                                                                                                                                                                                     earned more in 2012
survey. The urban area experienced a higher increase in the monthly income, while the
rural area had a slightly lower monthly income. People located outside Java also saw their
income grow faster than that in Java, and interestingly, it surpassed the figure in Java. The
younger generation is earning more, according to this survey, compared with our previous
surveys, and their income is rising at a much higher pace than the older generation.
However, savings outside Java as a percentage of total income declined—from 15% to
12%—even though it is still higher than those in Java.

Figure 18: Respondents living outside Java earned more                                                              Figure 19: Java-based people earned more in 2011
than those in Java in 2012; urban income rising faster
                                                                   4.0                                                                                                   4.0
                                                                                  3.5                      3.5
                                                                   3.5                                                                                                   3.5
                                                                         3.2
                                                                                                 3.0                                                                                                                                  3.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                 2.9                                                                                                                                     2.9
                                Avg monthly income (Rp mn/month)




                                                                                                                                      Avg monthly income (Rp mn/month)




                                                                   3.0                                                                                                   3.0                                                                                                                                                                                                         2.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2.6
                                                                                          2.5
                                                                   2.5                                                                                                   2.5

                                                                   2.0                                                                                                   2.0

                                                                   1.5                                                                                                   1.5

                                                                   1.0                                                                                                   1.0

                                                                   0.5                                                                                                   0.5

                                                                   0.0                                                                                                   0.0
                                                                         Total   Urban   Rural   Java    Non-Java                                                                                Total                               Urban                                               Rural                                           Java                         Non-Java

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    25 January 2013



Figure 20: Savings of respondents outside Java as a                                                                                             Figure 21: ... but still is higher than of Java residents
percentage of total income declined ...
                                     16                                                                                              15.1         4
                                                                        2012                                          2011                                                   3.5
                                     14                                                                       13.0                               3.5
                                                                                                      12.2                                                    3.0
                                                                                           11.6
                                     12                                                                                       11.1                3
 Saving (as % of total income)




                                                                    11.0
                                                          10.4                      10.0
                                     10                                                                                                          2.5
                                                                            8.2                                       8.5
                                               8                                                                                                  2

                                               6                                                                                                 1.5

                                               4                                                                                                  1

                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.3            0.4
                                               2                                                                                                 0.5

                                               0                                                                                                  0
                                                                                                                                                                    Income                                 Saving
                                                          Total

                                                                    Urban

                                                                            Rural

                                                                                    Java

                                                                                           Non-Java

                                                                                                      Total

                                                                                                              Urban

                                                                                                                      Rural

                                                                                                                              Java

                                                                                                                                     Non-Java
                                                                                                                                                                                   Java   Non-Java

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                            Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 22: Income rising with the younger age group earning more …
                                                    3.4

                                                    3.3

                                                    3.2
                       Avg monthly income (Rp mn)




                                                    3.1

                                                    3.0

                                                    2.9

                                                    2.8

                                                    2.7

                                                    2.6

                                                    2.5
                                                                  2012 18-29 30-45 46-55 56-65 2011 18-29 30-45 46-55 56-65 2010 18-29 30-45 46-55 56-65

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Food continues to be the largest component of
spending, with the expectation of higher inflation
With regard to spending, food continues to be the largest component, accounting for 28%                                                                                                    Food continues to be the
of the total spending. This is followed by savings at 11%, healthcare at 7%, education and                                                                                                 largest component of
auto, each at 6%, housing and public utilities, each at 4%, and entertainment at 3%.                                                                                                       spending, with the
                                                                                                                                                                                           expectation of higher
As in the previous years, respondents are expecting inflation to continue to rise. This might
                                                                                                                                                                                           inflation
be underpinned by the rise in electricity tariffs and the removal of fuel subsidies that
eventually did not happen the previous year. While the government has announced
increased electricity tariffs for 2013, we will see if fuel subsidies are going to be removed.
Potentially, this poses a threat to overall spending, as respondents expect higher inflation
than in the past 12 months.
Interestingly, while the contributions of other categories are similar to those of the past two                                                                                            Higher spending seen for
years’ surveys, only healthcare spending has witnessed an increase—4% of household                                                                                                         healthcare
spending on healthcare in 2010 rose to 5% in 2011 and 7% in 2012. We believe this is



Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                  18
                                                                                                                                                                                  25 January 2013


underpinned by the rising wealth of consumers, thus triggering healthier lifestyles, as well
as accessibility of state healthcare providers.

Figure 23: Food continues to be the largest component of                                      Figure 24: Inflation is expected to rise further
spending in 2012
                                                                                               80
                                            Housing
                                                                                                                       69                       2012      2011
                                              4%                                               70
                                                                  Education                                 62
                                                   Auto             6%                         60
                                                   6%
                           Others
                                                                                               50
                            26%
                                                                                               40
                                                           Food
                                                           28%                                 30
     Public Utilities
                                                                                               20                                          17
          4%
                                                                                                                                                     12
      Entertainment        Savings                                                             10
           3%                                                                                                                                                                 3         2
                            11%
                                                                                                0
                                                                                                     It will be higher than the    It will be the same as the        It will be lower than the
                                                   Home &
                               Health Care                                                                 last 12 months                 last 12 months                  last 12 months
                                                 Personal Care
                                  7%                  5%


Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                          Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 25: Monthly spending by category, 2010                                                 Figure 26: Monthly spending by category, 2011
                                                 Housing                                                                                    Housing
                                                   7%         Auto                                                                            4%
                                                              6%
                                                                                                                                                                         Education
                                                                        Education                                                                      Auto
                                                                                                                                  Others                                   7%
                                                                          6%                                                                           7%
                                                                                                                                   18%
                           Others
                            32%                                                                     Public Utilities
                                                                                                         7%
                                                                                                    Entertainment
                                                                                                         3%
                                                              Food
       Public Utilities                                                                                                 Savings                                   Food
                                                              26%
            0%                                                                                                           12%                                      31%
           Entertainment       Savings
                3%              11%
                                                                                                                    Health Care
                                        Health Care   Home &                                                           5%           Home &
                                           4%       Personal Care                                                                 Personal Care
                                                         5%                                                                            6%

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                          Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Better confidence for major purchases
Nevertheless, despite the expectation of a higher inflation, respondents have better                                                                This year is a better year to
confidence to make major purchases this time compared with the previous year, even                                                                  make major purchases
though it was still less confident than in 2010, the period of booming commodity prices.                                                            compared with the past
We believe that improving confidence is underpinned by the higher income that the                                                                   year, implying rising
respondents are expecting to receive.                                                                                                               confidence

Figure 27: Time to make a major purchase, by area
                                                    2012                                             2011                                                           2010
                           Total Urban Rural Java Non-Java Total Urban Rural Java Non-Java Total Urban Rural Java Non-Java
Excellent time                      3        3         5            4                3    3    3        2         2                  5          6             7           5         6             7
Good time                      30          27         35          27                36   26   26      27         19                44      50             48             54        56            40
Not such a good time           62          65         55          64                56   62   61      64         69                45      40             40             39        36            49
A bad time                          5        5         5            6                4    9   10        8        10                  6          4             5           3         4             6
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                                   19
                                                                                                                                                                                          25 January 2013



Figure 28: Time to make a major purchase, by age
                                                  2012                                                          2011                                                           2010
 % of respondents        Total        18-29       30-45      46-55         56-65         Total       18-29 30-45 46-55 56-65                            Total 18-29 30-45 46-55 56-65
Excellent time                    3           3          4             3             3           3         2             3             4            3             6       6           6          6        6
Good time                        30       33         26               33         22           26          28            25         27           23               50      53       49            50       45
Not such a good time             62       59         65               58         66           62          60            63         61           68               40      38       40            39       45
A bad time                        5           5          5             5             8           9        10             9             8            7             4       3           5          4        4
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 29: Time to make a major purchase, by income
                                                  2012                                                         2011                                                            2010
% of respondents         Total        <Rp1.5 Rp1.5-7.5                 >Rp7.5 Total              <Rp1.5 Rp1.5-7.5                      >Rp7.5 Total                   <Rp1.5 Rp1.5-7.5               >Rp7.5
                                         mn        mn                     mn                        mn        mn                          mn                             mn        mn                   mn
Excellent time              3              2         4                      4     3                   2         2                           7     6                        3         7                    4
Good time                  30             30                 30                 36       26               16                 30                32           50            45               51           68
Not such a good time       62             61                 62                 58       62               69                 59                54           40            46               38           21
A bad time                  5                 7               5                  2        9               13                  8                 7            4             5                4            7
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Rising income also leads to property upgrade
There were fewer first-time home buyers in this survey versus last year, with more                                                                               Some 39% of the
respondents looking to purchase property for an upgrade. Around 39% of the respondents                                                                           respondents are looking to
are keen for an upgrade, up from 31% in the previous year, with 37% being first-time                                                                             upgrade property in the next
buyers, down from 45% last year. We believe this trend is due to property ownership being                                                                        two years
larger than in previous years, and rise in income coupled with a low interest rate
environment.
According to our survey, people outside Java are more keen to purchase property than
those in Java, despite them already owning property. According to our survey, people
living outside Java are more keen to purchase property than those in Java, despite the
previous already owning property. For those outside Java, the number of respondents
opting for property upgrades were more than of first-time home buyers.

Figure 30: Property ownership and reason to purchase, by area
                                                             2012                                                       2011                                                    2010
% of respondents                      Total Urban Rural Java Non-Java Total Urban Rural Java Non-Java Total Urban Rural Java Non-Java
Property ownership                       74         65        90           74            73      70            63       83        73                63           73       66     86         74            71
Planning to buy in next 2 years?         30         34        22           28            33      25            28       18        25                23           24       30     12         24            22
Reason to buy
 Upgrade                                 39         34        53           36            44      31            32       28        33                26           38       39     35         39            37
 First-time home buyer                   37         39        30           38            35      45            46       42        43                51           33       32     37         32            35
 Investment                              15         16        12           14            16      17            16       19        17                16           13       12     18         12            18
 Change of location                       9         11            5        12             4          7          5       11         7                    8        15       17      7         17            11
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 31: Property ownership and reason to purchase, by age
                                                             2012                                                       2011                                                    2010
% of respondents                      Total 18-29 30-45 46-55 56-65 Total 18-29 30-45 46-55 56-65 Total 18-29 30-45 46-55 56-65
Property ownership                        74         70           72            84       86          70         65        68           78           81            73      67          70         86      92
Planning to buy in next 2 years?          30         30           33            29       15          25         27        27           20           11            24      23          27         22      11
Reason to buy
 Upgrade                                  39         38           38            37       59          31         27        29           47           50            38      35          36         48      55
 First-time home buyer                    37         46           35            28        6          45         53        45           26           17            33      36          40          6       0
 Investment                               15             8        17            20       29          17         13        19           21           17            13       9          12         22      36
 Change of location                           9          6        10            14        6           7             7        7             6        17            15      19           9         24       9
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                                          20
                                                                                                                                                                              25 January 2013



Figure 32: Property ownership and reason to purchase, by income
                                                                                    2012                                           2011                                2010
                                    % of respondents                 Total  <Rp1.5 Rp1.5- >Rp7.5 Total <Rp1.5 Rp1.5- >Rp7.5 Total <Rp1.5 Rp1.5- >Rp7.5
                                                                             mn    7.5 mn  mn           mn    7.5 mn  mn           mn    7.5 mn  mn
Property ownership                                                       74     77      73    79     70    67      70    85     73    71      74    69
Planning to buy in next 2 years?                                         30         21          32           43      25            17          27     37        24     15        27       42
Reason to buy
 Upgrade                                                                 39         51          38           26      31            32          31     10        38     42        37       55
 First-time home buyer                                                   37         36          37           39      45            53          44     10        33     48        31       18
 Investment                                                              15            2        17           22      17             8          17     80        13      2        15       27
 Change of location                                                          9      11            8          13         7           7           7         -     15      8        17        -
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Shift towards higher discretionary spending
continues
Comparing the spending of the essentials and discretionaries, overall spending on                                                                             We notice an increase in the
discretionary items increased more than that on the essentials. This bodes well with our                                                                      spending on discretionary
estimate that the middle class’ income is rising along with the country’s GDP/ capita, which                                                                  items, especially fashion
has doubled over the last five year to reach US$3,660 in 2012.
Spending on discretionary items in categories such as fashion, smartphones and mobile
phones were up, while spending on perfumes, sports shoes and apparels, TV, DVD player
was lower. We believe following are the reasons for the rise in discretionary spend on: (1)
fashion—changing lifestyles, along with the rising of income as well as higher confidence
of better income in the coming months; and (2) mobile phones—low penetration and
availability of more affordable handsets.
Consumers continued to spend on essentials such as instant noodles, carbonated drinks,
dairy products, and bottled water, which remain popular items. Interestingly, cigarettes
were less popular, even though they are still widely consumed.

Figure 33: Spending on fashion, mobile phones and smartphones increasing
                                    30

                                    25                                                                                       Fashion
                                    20
   % change from last year survey




                                    15

                                    10                                                                            Carbonated drinks
                                                                                                                              Basic mobile phone
                                                        Smartphone                                                                        Bottled Water
                                      5                                                                                  Property
                                                     JewelleryWatches                                 Tissues Cosmetics
                                         Cars
                                     -                                                                                     Femine hygiene
                                     DVD Player Internet Access
                                                                 Sport shoes & apparel                                                  Instant Noodles
                                     (5)
                                                  Traditional TV                                                   Dairy products
                                    (10)                                             Perfumes
                                                                                                Cigarettes
                                    (15)
                                           0       10        20         30        40         50          60        70         80          90        100
                                                             % of respondent which have bought essentials and discretionary goods


Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                            21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             25 January 2013



Figure 34: Mobile phone penetration remains the lowest...                                                                                                                       Figure 35: …similarly on computer penetration
                                                90                                                                                                                                                                                 100
                                                                                                                                                             Saudi                                                                              89              88
                                                80                                                                                                                                                                                 90
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                77
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   80
                                                70                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               70




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Computer ownership (%)
                     Smartphone ownership (%)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   70
                                                60                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               57
                                                                                                                                                    China                                                                          60
                                                50                                                                                                                                                                                 50
                                                                                                                 South Africa
                                                40                                                                                                                                                                                 40                                                                                           33            31
                                                                                                                                         Turkey                                                                                    30
                                                30
                                                                                                                                       Brazil Russia                                                                                                                                                                                                        20
                                                                          Indonesia                                                    India                                                                                       20
                                                20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   10
                                                10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0
                                                 0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                China


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Saudi


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Russia


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Brazil


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Turkey


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                India


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             South Africa


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Indonesia
                                                     75                80                  85                 90                 95                 100                   105
                                                                                         Mobile phone ownership (%)


Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                            Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Consumers prefer local brands for essentials
Our survey confirmed that the Indonesian consumers prefer local brands for essential                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Indonesians prefer local
items such as instant noodles, bottled water and cigarettes. However, a different pattern is                                                                                                                                                                                                              brands for essentials
seen for the discretionary items. We found that appetite for foreign brands is higher in
discretionary items such as fashion apparels and cosmetics, especially among higher
income earners. This finding is in line with the findings across emerging countries in our
survey, where consumers appear to stick with local brands, while foreign brands appeal
more in the discretionary item category, especially for higher income consumers.

Figure 36: Local brands are preferred for essential items                                                                                                                       Figure 37: Appetite for foreign brands is higher in
                                                                                                                                                                                discretionary items …
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         90
                                            100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         80
 % of respondents buying local brands




                                                                                                                                                                                 % respondents buying local brands




                                                                                                                                                                                                                         70
                                                95
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         60

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         50
                                                90
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         40

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Fashion                        Cosmetic
                                                85                                                                                                                                                                       20
                                                                               Cigarette                        Instant noodles                            Bottled water
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         10

                                                80                                                                                                                                                                             -
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         <Rp1,000k


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Rp1,000k -


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Rp1,500k -


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Rp2,000k -


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Rp3,000k -


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Rp5,000k -


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Rp10,000k-


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Rp10,000k -

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             >Rp15,000k
                                                          <Rp1,000k


                                                                      Rp1,000k -

                                                                                   Rp1,500k -

                                                                                                Rp2,000k -

                                                                                                             Rp3,000k -

                                                                                                                          Rp5,000k -

                                                                                                                                       Rp10,000k-

                                                                                                                                                    Rp10,000k -

                                                                                                                                                                  >Rp15,000k




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Rp15,000k
                                                                                                                                       Rp15,000k




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Rp1,500k


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Rp2,000k


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Rp3,000k


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Rp5,000k


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Rp7,500k




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Rp15,000k
                                                                      Rp1,500k

                                                                                   Rp2,000k

                                                                                                Rp3,000k

                                                                                                             Rp5,000k

                                                                                                                          Rp7,500k




                                                                                                                                                    Rp15,000k




Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                            Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Our survey also found that for Indonesian consumers, branded products appeal more for                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Branded products appeal
essentials, as they are the basic needs such as dairy and soft drinks, while for discretionary                                                                                                                                                                                                            more for essentials while for
items such as cosmetics, perfumes and fashion, the consumers in Indonesia still prefer                                                                                                                                                                                                                    discretionary items,
“unbranded” products. We believe this is due to affordability, as for the higher income                                                                                                                                                                                                                   consumers prefer
earners, this is on the other way around. Nevertheless, in general, compared to other                                                                                                                                                                                                                     “unbranded products”,
emerging countries in our survey, Indonesians are still mostly using “unbranded” products.                                                                                                                                                                                                                mostly due to affordability




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            22
                                                                                                                                                                           25 January 2013



Figure 38: Percentage of purchases by sector that are "unbranded"
                % of respondents                                  Brazil           China           India           Indonesia        Russia        Saudi Arabia   Turkey        South Africa
Dairy                                                                        3               8                19                9            30              2            14             20
Soft Drinks                                                                  2               2                 4                8            13              1             4              8
Beer                                                                         0               5                 2           n/a               10            n/a             3              0
Spirits                                                                      3              15                 3           n/a               13            n/a            30             17
Cosmetics                                                                    4              10                11            27               15             13            10             40
Perfumes                                                                     7              30                56            71               39             29            57             42
Fashion                                                                    27               37                62            64               65             40            69             66
Leather Goods                                                              39               40                36            42               82             38            46             58
Sportswear                           19            9                                                          25            29               34             17            31             23
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013
Figure 39: Preference for branded goods pick up on higher income group
                                         100
   % of purchases that are "unbranded"




                                         80

                                         60

                                         40

                                         20

                                          0
                                               Less than Rp1,000k - Rp1,500k- Rp2,000k - Rp3,000k - Rp5,000k - Rp7,500k- Rp10,000 - More than
                                                1,000k   Rp1,500k Rp2,000k Rp3,000k Rp 5,000k Rp7,500k Rp10,000k Rp15,000k Rp15,000k

                                                Fashion        Leather goods, bag & shoes        Sportswear           Watches         Perfumes

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                           23
                                                                                                                25 January 2013



Figure 40: Brand preference in different income segments
Food and Beverages       % penetration at % penetration at %penetration at Difference   Parent Company (if    Listed Private
                         LOWER income MIDDLE Income HIGHER income (LOW & HIGH)          applicable
Noodles
Indomie                              39              41              33           (6)   Indofood CBP          ICBP.JK
Mie Sedap                            35              30              24          (11)   Wings Group           Private
Cigarettes
Djarum Super                          5               4               2           (2)   Djarum                Private
Dji Sam Soe                           9               9              10            1    HM Sampoerna          HMSP.JK
Sampoerna Hijau                       8               2               5           (3)   HM Sampoerna          HMSP.JK
Gudang Garam Filter                   8               5               2           (6)   Gudang Garam          GGRM.JK
Gudang Garam Surya                   18               7               8          (10)   Gudang Garam          GGRM.JK
Sampoerna A Mild                     11               8              22           10    HM Sampoerna          HMSP.JK
Soft drinks                                                                         -
Coca-Cola                            35              31              31           (3)   Coca Cola Co Ltd      Foreign listed
Fanta                                26              28              27            1    Coca Cola Co Ltd      Foreign listed
Sprite                               25              27              26            0    Coca Cola Co Ltd      Foreign listed
Bottled drinks                                                                      -
Aqua                                 62              62              56           (6)   Danone Company        Private
Club                                 19              13              12           (7)   Tirta Bahagia         Private
Dairy products
Frissian Flag                        34              34              28           (6)   Frissian Flag         Private
Indomilk                             23              19              11          (11)   Indomilk              ICBP.JK
Milk Ultra                           13              14              16            3    Ultrajaya             ULTJ.JK
Personal care
Tissue
Paseo                                26              33              31           (6)   Pindo Deli            Private
Mitu                                 17              18              21          (11)   Megasari Makmur       Private
Nice                                 13              15              18            3    Pindo Deli            Private
Female hygiene
Laurier                              26              29              31           (6)   Kao                   Foreign listed
Charm                                28              35              35          (11)   Unicharm              Foreign listed
Softex                               24              15              12            3    Softex Indonesia      Private
Hers Protex                           8               5               -            4    Wings Group           Private
Skin products
Ponds                                13              20              18           (6)   Unilever Indonesia    UNVR.JK
Citra                                21              21              21          (11)   Unilever Indonesia    UNVR.JK
Viva                                 15               8               5            3    PT Vitapharm          Private
Technology
Internet provider
Speedy                               36              23              50           14    Telkom Indonesia      TLKM.JK
Telkom Flash                         45              34              40           (5)   Telkom Indonesia      TLKM.JK
Mobile phone
Nokia                                41              43              36           (5)   Nokia                 Foreign listed
Samsung                               7               9               7            1    Samsung               Foreign listed
Nexian                                8               6               4           (4)   Metrotech             Private
Blackberry                            1               8              21           20    RIM                   Foreign listed
Mobile operator
Telkomsel                            38              42              57           18    Telkom Indonesia      TLKM.JK
Indosat                              23              22              16           (7)   Indosat               ISAT.JK
Esia                                  7               6               4           (3)   Bakrie Telecom        BTEL.JK
Excel                                16              12               6          (10)   Excel Axiata          EXCL.JK
Telkom Fleksi                         7               5               6           (1)   Telkom Indonesia      TLKM.JK
Automotive
Car
Toyota                                -              29              31           31    Astra International   ASII.JK
Daihatsu                              -              23              15           15    Astra International   ASII.JK


Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                 24
                                                                                                                      25 January 2013


                         % Penetration at % penetration at %penetration at Difference       Parent Company (if      Listed Private
                         LOWER income      Middle Income HIGHER income (LOW & HIGH)         applicable)
Suzuki                                  -              29              31          31       Indomobil               IMAS.JK
Motorcycle
Honda                                 51               51            52                2    Astra International     ASII.JK
Yamaha                                36               37            45                8    Yamaha Indonesia        Private
Suzuki                                10                9              -             (10)   Indomobil               IMAS.JK
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Our stock preferences
We identify five stocks that bode well with our findings on this survey. They are:                      Our stocks preference
                                                                                                        include: ASII, BBCA, ICBP,
■   Astra International (ASII.JK, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp9,400.00): We continue to                            MAPI and ERAA
    believe the stock remains a beneficiary of growing penetration in Indonesia’s auto
    segment. Its brands, Toyota in 4-W and Honda in 2-W, continue to lead in each of its
    segment. The auto segment of Astra should contribute 53% to its 2013E earnings. We
    believe the company is an attractive option for investors looking for exposure to the
    Indonesian consumer sector. Currently, Astra’s auto implied valuations exhibit the
    lowest 2013E multiple among all Indonesian consumer-related names under our
    coverage. Its auto business is trading at 11.4x 12-month forward P/E, versus historical
    peak of 17.8x in July 2011.

■   Bank Central Asia (BBCA.JK, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp11,000.00) remains our top
    pick in the Indonesian banking sector. BBCA has one of the highest growth capacity
    supported by its low LDR (68.9%). In addition, it also has one of the highest CASA
    contributions to total deposits (79.5%), allowing the bank to have one of the lowest
    CoF among Indonesian banks. Given their low LDR and low CoF, BBCA is well
    positioned to deliver above-industry growth, offering more competitive pricing to
    borrowers, while at the same time sustaining robust NIM. We believe BBCA exhibits
    one of the strongest fundamentals among the Indonesian banks under our coverage.

■   Within Indonesia food & beverage, we like Indofood CBP (ICBP.JK, OUTPERFORM,
    TP Rp8,100), as it is widely exposed to the products that consumers seek, such as
    instant noodles. It also has strong brand equity and continues to innovate products
    such as the beef-based noodle (Mie Goreng Rendang) and the recently launched Mie
    Goreng Cabe Ijo. Noodle is the highest contributor to the company, accounting for
    64% of its revenue and 79% operating profit, with operating margin at 16.5% in 2013E.
    Within its product portfolio, Indofood CBP also includes dairy products. Dairy should
    be its second largest contributor, accounting for 20% of revenue and 12% of operating
    profit with margin at 8% in 2013E. The completion of its new factory should help boost
    volumes this year, with sales volume expected to surge 18% YoY, on a 3% ASP
    increase.

■   Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI.JK, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp8,100): With the rise in the
    middle-class income and higher confidence among Indonesian consumers, this survey
    found that spending on discretionary items has been rising more than the essentials.
    Fashion apparel was recorded as having increased by close to 25%, highest among
    all items we surveyed. We believe this should benefit the mid- to high-end retailer,
    Mitra Adiperkasa. The company manages more than 100 world class brands across its
    divisions, with more than half of the revenue contribution coming from speciality
    stores, followed by department stores, and food & beverage. We expect strong SSG to
    continue, given the rising middle- and high-income segments, with a consolidated
    SSG of 14% as of FY12, with specialty stores posting the strongest SSG at 17%,
    followed by department stores at 13%, F&B at 9% and others at 3%. We expect its
    SSG to reach 13% this year.




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                    25
                                                                                                                                 25 January 2013



■   We like Erajaya Swasembada Tbk (ERAA.JK, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp3,300) as it is
    Indonesia’s largest distributor of mobile phones. It portfolio includes popular brands
    such as BlackBerry, Samsung, Apple, Sony Ericsson and Nokia. Erajaya’s distribution
    business should remain the majority revenue contributor, despite the company’s
    continuing efforts to expand its retail business. As of 2012, the retail business
    contributed less than 30% to revenue, operating 399 stores. During the year, it opened
    101 stores (including 2 new iBox, and 19 stores from iBox acquisition). This year, it
    plans to add 105 stores (including 35 iBox, and six Megastores). Most of the new
    stores will be located outside Java. Management expects its retail business to
    contribute around 40% to 2015 revenue with a total of 800 stores. We believe the
    company’s efforts to expand in the retail business is due to its margins being better
    than in distribution (the difference varies among brands, but on a blended basis it is
    around 100-200 bp higher for retail). Management also indicated that its SSG for 2012
    is estimated to be around 22%, an increase from 18% in 2011. It is expecting an 18–
    20% SSG for this year. The government increasing minimum wage we believe should
    benefit Erajaya. The company’s extensive distribution network and brand portfolio
    enables it to penetrate the rise in consumers’ purchasing power. Moreover, the
    majority of its revenue (69%) is from Jabodetabek and Kalimantan, both of which have
    the highest average minimum wage increase compared to the other provinces.

Figure 41: Our preference among Indonesian consumer space
                              Mcap         Price       P/E (x)       EPS growth     P/B (x)         EV/EBITDA ROE (%) Div yield (%)
                                                                         (%)                            (x)
           Sector           US$ mn Rtg   Curr      TP 13E     14E     13E    14E   13E     14E      13E 14E 13E 14E 13E 14E
ASII.JK    Auto              32,437   O 7,700 9,400    12.0   10.2     35.9 17.2     3.7      3.1     9.8    8.3   30.8   30.6    3.7    5.0
BBCA.JK Bank                 23,860   O 9,300 11,000   17.4   15.0     11.7 16.2     3.9      3.3    13.7   11.8   22.3   21.9    1.9    2.2
ICBP.JK    Cons. Prod.        4,793   O 7,900 8,100    18.1   16.1     16.5 12.2     3.6      3.2    11.0    9.9   19.8   19.8    2.4    2.8
MAPI.JK    Retail             1,114   O 6,450 8,100    18.4   14.8     27.7 24.0     4.0      3.2     9.2    7.8   21.6   21.7    0.7    1.0
ERAA.JK Retail                 845    O 2,800 3,300    12.7   11.3     43.3 12.9     2.7      2.4     9.6    8.5   21.3   21.2    2.7    3.9
Pricing as of 21 Jan 2013
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse estimates




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                 26
                                                                                                                                   25 January 2013



Figure 42: Indonesia consumer-related names
Code        Rtg Price Target Ups            Mcap      P/E (x)   EPS growth    P/B (x)   EV/EBITDA Div yield (%) ROE (%) Ytd perf
                                                                    (%)                     (x)
                                           US$mn    12E 13E 14E 12E 13E 14E 12E 13E 14E 12E 13E 14E 12E 13E 14E 13E 14E 12E 13E
Automobiles
ASII.JK       O 7,700        9,400 22% 32,437 16.3 12.0 10.2         8    36   17 4.5 3.7 3.1 12.8 9.8 8.3 3.4 3.7 5.0        31   31    3% 1%
IMAS.JK       U 5,300        4,800   -9%    1,525 14.1 12.3 7.7      8    14   60 2.4 2.2 1.8 17.9 14.5 8.4 1.2 1.3 1.6       18   23 -17% 0%
Banks
BBCA.JK       O 9,300 11,000 18% 23,860 19.5 17.4 15.0               8    12   16 4.6 3.9 3.3 15.3 13.7 11.8 1.7 1.9 2.2      22   22 14% 2%
BMRI.JK       O 8,550 11,000 29% 20,552 14.1 12.2 10.8              16    15   13 2.7 2.3 1.9 9.9 8.6 7.6 1.4 1.6 1.9         19   18 20% 6%
BBRI.JK       O 7,900        9,100 15% 20,280 11.5 11.8 11.0        12 (2)      7 3.1 2.5 2.1 9.1 9.3 8.5 1.7 1.7 1.8         22   20    3% 14%
BBNI.JK       O 3,850        5,000 30%      7,396 10.5 9.5 8.2      17    11   16 1.8 1.5 1.3 7.9 7.4 6.4 3.3 3.7 4.3         16   16   -3% 4%
BTPN.JK       N 5,250        5,800 10%      3,159 15.7 13.5 11.0    35    16   23 4.0 3.1 2.4 12.2 10.5 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0       23   22 54% 0%
BBTN.JK       N 1,540        1,600   4%     1,660 11.7 9.5 8.3       2    23   14 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0         15   14 25% 6%
BJBR.JK       O 1,180        1,420 20%      1,179   8.8 8.6 7.1     34     2   21 1.9 1.6 1.3 5.8 5.7 4.8 4.4 5.9 6.1         19   18 16% 11%
Consumer
UNVR.JK       U 23,000 15,725 -32% 18,261 35.8 33.0 30.8            21     9    7 31.6 29.3 27.6 25.7 23.8 22.1 2.4 2.8 3.0   89   90 11% 10%
GGRM.JK       U 53,700 44,600 -17% 10,752 25.1 20.5 17.4 (16)             22   18 3.9 3.4 3.1 15.6 13.2 11.5 1.9 1.6 2.0      17   18   -9% -5%
INDF.JK       N 6,000        6,700 12%      5,482 15.7 14.8 14.2     9     6    5 2.5 2.3 2.1 5.6 5.2 5.0 2.9 3.2 3.4         15   15 27% 3%
KLBF.JK       U 1,040         800 -23%      5,495 31.3 27.3 23.2    14    15   18 7.6 6.7 5.9 20.8 18.2 15.5 1.8 1.9 2.2      25   25 56% -2%
ICBP.JK       O 7,900        8,100   3%     4,793 21.1 18.1 16.1    11    17   12 4.0 3.6 3.2 12.5 11.0 9.9 2.1 2.4 2.8       20   20 50% 1%
Retail
MAPI.JK       O 6,450        8,100 26%      1,114 23.5 18.4 14.8    26    28   24 4.9 4.0 3.2 10.8 9.2 7.8 0.6 0.7 1.0        22   22 29% -3%
ACES.JK       N     860       700 -19%      1,535 39.3 30.0 24.2    32    31   24 9.6 7.5 5.9 26.3 19.9 16.4 0.3 0.4 0.5      25   24 100% 5%
ERAA.JK       O 2,800        3,300 18%       845 18.3 12.7 11.3     74    43   13 3.1 2.7 2.4 12.9 9.6 8.5 0.0 2.7 3.9        21   21 195% -5%
Media
MNCN.JK       O 2,400        2,700 13%      3,485 21.3 17.8 14.3    46    20   24 4.6 4.0 3.4 13.1 11.3 9.3 1.4 2.1 2.5       22   24 91% -4%
SCMA.JK       O 2,300        2,760 20%      2,334 22.2 18.3 15.1    10    21   21 14.0 12.4 10.9 15.8 13.3 11.1 4.5 5.5 6.6   68   72 43% 2%
IDKM.JK       O 1,030        1,400 36%      1,086 23.7 15.5 11.8 554      53   31 18.5 8.4 4.9 16.4 11.2 8.8 0.0 0.0 1.0      54   42 78% 0%
Telco
TLKM.JK       O 9,600 10,900 14% 20,139 14.8 13.2 12.4              16    12    6 3.7 3.4 3.2 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.4 5.3 6.4         26   26 28% 6%
EXCL.JK       O 5,400        8,000 48%      4,791 15.4 12.2 10.9     6    26   11 2.9 2.6 2.4 5.5 4.9 4.5 2.3 4.1 5.5         22   22 26% -5%
ISAT.JK       O 6,750        8,300 23%      3,817 24.0 16.5 13.8    83    46   20 1.9 1.8 1.7 5.6 5.2 4.8 2.1 1.7 3.5         11   12 14% 5%
TOWR.JK       O 25,000 19,500 -22%          2,654 58.1 40.4 31.1    55    44   30 14.0 11.6 9.8 16.9 13.6 11.4 0.5 1.0 1.6    29   31 127% 10%
TBIG.JK       N 5,900        3,800 -36%     2,945 29.2 22.5 17.5    94    30   29 6.8 5.7 4.8 22.2 16.0 13.0 1.0 1.8 2.9      25   27 140% 4%
BTEL.JK       U      50        50    0%      159    -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 (46)    8    5 0.4 0.6 1.1 7.0 7.5 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -46 -79 -81% 0%
Airline
GIAA.JK       O     650       900 38%       1,531 13.3 8.0 16.1     29    65 (50) 1.6 1.4 1.3 5.4 3.7 3.9 0.0 3.1 2.7         18    8 39% -2%
Pricing as of 21 Jan 2013.
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse estimates




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                 27
                                 25 January 2013




Key sector selections




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013               28
                                                                                                                    25 January 2013




Automotive sector
Four-wheelers
In Indonesia, car penetration is still low (based on our survey, only 6% of the respondents           Low car penetration with
own a car); this suggests the market has more potential to grow with rise in income levels.           increasing future purchases
Most of the car owners in our survey are high income earners and live in Java. Some 92%               foreseen
of those who own a car purchased it 4.7 years ago, even though car ownership turnover
has improved slightly—from an average of 6.2 years to 5.9 years.
As confidence improves, there is an increase in the number of respondents who are willing
to purchase a car in the next 12 months—from about 7% of respondents in last year’s
survey to 11% this year. This could also be due to the availability of cheaper cars (priced
as low as US$11,000/unit), thus making it more affordable.

Figure 43: Four-wheeler penetration in Indonesia has ample opportunity to grow
                                                                                    Age                      Monthly income
                                           Total Urban Rural Java Non-Java 18-29 30-45 46-55 56-65 <Rp1.5 mn Rp1.5-7.5 mn >Rp7.5 mn
2012
Four-wheeler ownership     % respondents      6        6    4    6        5     5    7      3     6          -            6           29
No of cars per household
 1 Car                     % car owners      92      91    94   91       95    88   92    100   100          -          93            85
 >1 Car                    % car owners       8        9    6    9        5    12    8      -     -          -            7           15
When was the car           years ago          5        5    5    5        3     4    5      6     6          -            5            5
purchased?
Car ownership turnover     years              6        6    5    6        5     6    5      7    10          -            6            6
Prob of purchase in 12M
 Potentially Yes           % respondents     11      13     8   11       10    10   13     13     4          2          12            21
 Unsure                    % respondents     32      34    30   34       28    33   33     32    27         36          31            40
 Potentially No            % respondents     57      54    62   55       61    57   55     55    69         62          57            40
2011
Four-wheeler ownership     % respondents      5        6    3    4        5     5    5      3     4          0            5           50
No of cars per household
 1 Car                     % car owners      89      88    93   86       96    92   86     86   100        100          91            83
 >1 Car                    % car owners      11      12     7   14        4     8   14     14     -          -            9           17
When was the car           years ago          4        5    3    5        4     4    5      5     5          4            5            4
purchased?
Car ownership turnover     years              6        6    6    6        6     5    7      6     2          9            6            7
Prob of purchase in 12M
 Potentially Yes           % respondents      7        9    3    6        7     7    9      2     5          2            8           30
 Unsure                    % respondents     33      32    34   30       38    32   33     33    34         30          33            10
 Potentially No            % respondents     60      59    62   63       54    61   59     64    60         68          59            60
2010
Four-wheeler ownership     % respondents      6        6    5    6        5     3    7      6    10          1            6           50
No of cars per household
 1 Car                     % car owners      86      81    95   83       92    88   86     75    90        100          90            67
 >1 Car                    % car owners      14      19     5   17        8    12   14     25    10          -          10            33
When was the car           years ago          4        4    4    4        3     4    3      5     4          5            4            3
purchased?
Car ownership turnover     years              6        7    6    7        6     7    5      9     7          5            7            6
Prob of purchase in 12M
 Potentially Yes           % respondents      7        8    5    6        9     5    8     10     6          3            8           39
 Unsure                    % respondents     25      26    22   26       22    29   22     24    23         20          26            39
 Potentially No            % respondents     68      66    72   67       69    66   70     66    71         77          66            21
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                  29
                                                                                                                                                        25 January 2013


Toyota and Suzuki are the preferred four-wheeler brands in Indonesia, according to our                                                Toyota and Suzuki are the
survey. Suzuki is gaining popularity from the launch of its MPV, Suzuki Ertiga (priced at                                             preferred four-wheeler
around US$15,000/unit, thus grabbing market share from Toyota Avanza), especially in                                                  brands
Java. Toyota remains popular among the people of all income levels. It continues to lead
in outside Java, with 43% non-Java respondents owning a Toyota car, while Suzuki
dominates in Java. Daihatsu, on the other hand, still maintains its share at a similar level,
and has become the third preferred brand for four-wheelers, after Toyota and Suzuki.
Daihatsu is popular in the urban area, outside Java and among the middle-aged and
middle-income earners.
When asked about their future purchase, most respondents chose Toyota as their
preferred four-wheeler brand, with 42% of respondents in Java (the highest) willing to buy
a Toyota car for their next purchase compared with only 33% non-Java respondents who
said they were willing to do so. Contrary to its current position in terms of ownership,
Daihatsu is the next most popular four-wheeler brand that the respondents want to own in
Java and outside Java, while Suzuki remains as the third most popular brand for four-
wheelers. Daihatsu is more popular in Indonesia-ex. Java than in Java. Some 15% of the
respondents in our survey who live outside Java said they want to buy a Daihatsu car for
their next purchase, compared with only 9% of the Java-based respondents. Suzuki is
more popular in Java than outside Java, as 5% of Java respondents wanted to buy a
Suzuki car as opposed to only 3% of the outside-Java respondents.

Figure 44: Suzuki gaining popularity ...
 % of respondents                                                                                      Age                                   Monthly income
   of car owner      Total     Urban            Rural       Java      Non-Java       18-29      30-45        46-55       56-65 <Rp1.5 mn Rp1.5-7.5 mn >Rp7.5 mn
2012
Toyota                   28           25            39           23             43        33           27           14      33               -           29          31
Daihatsu                 22           25            11           19             28        21           19           43      17               -           23          15
Suzuki                   28           25            39           32             19        25           35           14      17               -           29          31
Others                   22           25            11           26             10        21           19           29      33               -           19          23
2011
Toyota                   39           40            36           33             50        54           24           43      50              50           33          42
Daihatsu                 23           23            21           24             21        23           24           14      25              50           24          17
Suzuki                   15           17                7        17             12        12           24            -        -              -           20               -
Others                   23           20            36           26             17        11           28           43      25               -           23          42
2010
Toyota                   36           39            27           42             21        29           46           17      30              33           38          17
Daihatsu                 24           30                9        17             37        35           14           42      20               -           24          33
Suzuki                   11            6            23           10             13          6          11            -      30              33           10              8
Others                   29           25            41           31             29        30           29           41      20              34           28          42
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 45: ... but Toyota is still a ‘dream car’
                                           2012                                                  2011                                            2010
 % of respondents             Java                  Non-Java                         Java                   Non-Java                   Java             Non-Java
                     Current       Future        Current         Future       Current     Future       Current       Future       Current    Future Current Future
Toyota                        23        42                  43         33            33          50            50           35         42        47       21        64
Daihatsu                      19            9               28         15            24            7           21           13         17        15       37         2
Suzuki                        32            5               19            3          17            8           12           10         10         4       13         -
Others                        26        45                  10         49            26          35            17           41         31        34       29        34
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Two-wheelers
Two-wheeler penetration is much higher than four-wheelers in Indonesia; much of it                                                    Indonesia two-wheeler
because of the affordability. Some 78% of respondents claim they own a motorcycle in                                                  penetration is quite high at
their household, a slight increase from 75% in the previous year’s survey. Those who own                                              78%



Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                      30
                                                                                                                    25 January 2013


more than one motorcycle also increased, from 29% in the previous survey to 33% in this
year’s. This is due to the higher income received.
Currently, those who own two-wheelers had purchased it on average about 3.3 years ago
and the ownership trend seems to have stabilised around 5.4-5.6 years. While previous
year’s survey showed 5.4 years as average holding period, this year’s survey revealed a
slightly longer time of 5.6 years. This indicates that some people may be postponing the
replacement of their vehicles due to the Central Bank now imposing a minimum down-                   More respondents are
payment of 20-30% for purchase of a new two-wheeler.                                                 looking to buy two-wheelers
Although already highly penetrated, the respondents are still keen to purchase                       despite the already-high
motorcycles again in the next 12 months. This could also be for replacement purpose, in              penetration
our view. Some 31% of the respondents are likely purchase in the next 12 months, up
from 26% in the previous year’s survey, and mostly they are middle income earners and
younger generation, located outside Java.
Figure 46: Two-wheeler ownership impacted by the newly imposed payment regulation
                                                                                    Age                   Monthly income
                                           Total Urban Rural Java Non-Java 18-29 30-45 46-55 56-65 <Rp1.5 mn Rp1.5-7.5 mn >Rp7.5 mn
2012
2-wheeler ownerships       % respondents     78     78   78    78       77    79   81     75   67        61           82          84
No of cars per household
1 motorcycle               % car owners      67     67   67    66       70    66   73     59   60        85           64          56
>1 motorcycles             % car owners      33     32   33    34       30    35   27     41   40        15           36          44
When was motorcycle     years ago             3      3    3     3        3     3    3      3    4         4            3              3
purchased?
Motorcycle ownership    years                 6      6    5     6        5     5    6      7    7         6            6              6
turnover
Prob of purchase in 12M
Potentially Yes            % respondents     31     32   31    29       36    38   29     28   17        24           33          31
Unsure                     % respondents     34     32   40    35       34    32   35     40   39        42           33          31
Potentially No             % respondents     34     36   30    36       30    31   36     32   44        35           35          38
2011
2-wheeler ownerships       % respondents     75     77   72    75       76    78   74     72   68        61           80         100
No of cars per household
1 motorcycle               % car owners      71     66   80    70       73    77   69     66   62        88           65          33
>1 motorcycles             % car owners      29     34   20    30       27    24   31     34   38        12           35          67
When was the motorcycle years ago             3      3    4     3        3     3    3      3    4         4            3              2
purchased?
Motorcycle ownership    years                 5      5    5     6        5     5    6      7    6         5            5              6
turnover
Prob of purchase in 12M
Potentially Yes            % respondents     26     30   19    24       32    30   27     18   14        19           29          36
Unsure                     % respondents     29     25   37    30       28    29   29     27   37        35           27          18
Potentially No             % respondents     45     45   44    47       41    41   44     55   49        45           45          45
2010
2-wheeler ownerships       % respondents     73     74   70    72       74    73   72     80   63        54           79          92
No of cars per household
1 motorcycle               % car owners      71     69   76    72       69    69   77     61   67        86           68          72
>1 motorcycles             % car owners      29     31   24    28       31    31   23     39   33        14           32          28
When was the motorcycle years ago             3      3    3     3        3     3    3      3    4         3            3              3
purchased?
Motorcycle ownership    years                 6      5    6     6        6     5    6      7    6         5            6              6
turnover
Prob of purchase in 12M
Potentially Yes            % respondents     26     29   22    29       24    23   31     22   27        16           28          55
Unsure                     % respondents     28     27   28    35       18    27   27     32   21        25           27          28
Potentially No             % respondents     46     44   50    44       58    51   42     46   53        59           45          18
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013



Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                  31
                                                                                                                                          25 January 2013


Honda and Yamaha remain the two most preferred motorcycle brands. Honda is still
dominant in both Java and outside Java markets, across all income and age groups.
About 52% of the respondents in Java and 47% of the respondents outside Java own a
Honda motorcycle. Yamaha comes second as the most preferred brand, with 37% of the
respondents owning one, up from 33% in our first-year survey and 35% in our second-year
survey. Suzuki’s popularity, on the other hand, has declined, with 9% of the respondents
preferring the brand versus 13% in our previous survey.

Figure 47: Honda is the market leader in the Indonesia two-wheeler market
% of respondents                                                                           Age                              Monthly income
Own motorcycle         Total     Urban Rural            Java       Non-Java      18-29 30-45 46-55 56-65 <Rp1.5 mn             Rp1.5-7.5 mn >Rp7.5 mn
2012
Honda                     51           51          51     52               47        47         52     50   62            51              51          52
Yamaha                    37           38          35     36               39        39         35     40   30            36              37          45
Suzuki                     9            8          10         8            10        10          8      8       6         10               9           -
Others                     3            3           4         3             4          4         5      2       2          3               4           3
2011
Honda                     48           49          46     52               39        42         50     52   59            51              47          58
Yamaha                    35           36          33     34               38        39         35     31   25            29              37          25
Suzuki                    13           11          15     11               17        15         11     12   13            13              13          17
Others                     4            4           6         3             5          4         4      5       3          6               3           0
2010
Honda                     50           48          54     54               42        46         54     48   53            51              49          46
Yamaha                    33           36          28     31               37        35         30     39   24            29              34          18
Suzuki                    13           12          14     11               17        15         12      7   18            16              13          28
Others                     4            4           4         4             4          4         4      6       5          4               4           8
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 48: Honda leads in both Java and outside Java markets
                                            2012                                           2011                                    2010
% of respondents               Java                     Non-Java                Java                 Non-Java             Java            Non-Java
                     Current          Future        Current       Future Current Future Current Future Current Future Current Future
Honda                          52            59           47          48        52         52         39            38    54      49           42     35
Yamaha                         36            28           39          41        34         35         38            46    31      34           37     49
Suzuki                           8             5          10           5        11          7         17            12    11      10           17     10
Others                           3             8              4        6         3          6          5             4     4       7            4      6
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Key stocks
Indonesians spend around 6% of their household spending on automobiles. This is relatively                               Our top pick in the auto
stable compared with our previous surveys. The still-low penetration of four-wheelers leads                              sector is Astra International
us to believe that Astra International (ASII.JK, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp9,400.00) should be a                                  with its brands, Toyota and
beneficiary of higher automobile penetration in Indonesia. Its brands, Toyota in four-wheelers                           Honda, leading the
and Honda in two-wheelers, continue to lead in each of its segment. Astra’s auto segment                                 Indonesia auto market
should contribute 53% to its earnings in 2013. We believe that the company is an attractive
option for investors looking for exposure in the Indonesian consumer sector. Currently,
Astra’s auto-implied valuation exhibits the lowest FY13E multiple among all Indonesian
consumer-related names under our coverage. Its auto-implied P/E is 11.4x 12-month
forward P/E, versus the historical peak of 17.8x in Jul-11.
Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS.JK, UNDERPERFORM, TP Rp4,800.00) is also a
potential beneficiary, although its share in four-wheelers is still minimal; thus Astra is our
preferred pick. We believe that much of the bad news has been priced in, given its stock’s
underperformance. While we recognise that an improvement in Nissan Evalia features
could lead to higher sales volume of the model in 2Q13, we believe that the optimum sales
volume potential has been somewhat curbed due to the introduction of several new
models by competing brands in 4Q12 and 1Q13E.


Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                        32
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Consumer sector
This survey found that with the rise in middle-income population and higher confidence                                                                     Spending on discretionary
among Indonesian consumers, spending on discretionary items is rising more than that on                                                                    items is seen to be rising
the essentials. Spending on fashion apparel has increased by about 25%, the highest                                                                        more than that on the
among the items we surveyed. Basic mobile phones are still preferred to smartphones,                                                                       essentials
which could be due to their affordability, and is seen to be rising less than 10% (versus
smartphones by 5%).
Among the essentials, bottled water and carbonated drinks are two items that we continue
to find interesting, given that both the items are growing at a faster pace than other
essentials. Bottled water and carbonated drinks continue to gain popularity. Some 90% of
the respondents have consumed bottled water in the past three months, with 61% looking
to consume more; and 70% have consumed carbonated drinks, with 35% looking to
consume more. We believe that this is due to lifestyle changes as income is rising.
Hence, due to the already-high penetration of noodles consumption, even though it is still                                                                 For essentials, bottled water
widely consumed and remain the most popular staples product, its growth is slowing down.                                                                   and carbonated drinks
Some 95% of the respondents said that they have consumed instant noodles in the past                                                                       continue to gain popularity.
three months, the highest among other staples.                                                                                                             Instant noodle remains the
                                                                                                                                                           most popular staple,
Surprisingly, respondents are spending less on dairy products and cigarettes. We believe
                                                                                                                                                           although growth is slowing
this could be due to the rise in skimmed milk prices and cigarettes. Some 66% of the
                                                                                                                                                           down
respondents said that they have consumed dairy products in the past three months,
compared with the 73% in the previous survey. And about 47% of the respondents said
that they have consumed cigarettes in the past three months, down from 59% in the
previous survey.
Nevertheless, we observe that meat consumption as a percentage of diet remains
relatively low, which we believe is due to the pricing. This suggests the respondents are
eating less meat than the last time. Food is still the largest component of household
spending, accounting for 28% of the total spending.

Figure 49: Spending on fashion has risen much higher than that on other discretionary items
                                     30

                                     25                                                                                       Fashion
                                     20
    % change from last year survey




                                     15

                                     10                                                                            Carbonated drinks
                                                                                                                               Basic mobile phone
                                                         Smartphone                                                                        Bottled Water
                                       5                                                                                  Property
                                                      JewelleryWatches                                 Tissues Cosmetics
                                          Cars
                                       -                                                                                    Femine hygiene
                                      DVD Player Internet Access                                                                         Instant Noodles
                                      (5)                         Sport shoes & apparel
                                                   Traditional TV                                                   Dairy products
                                     (10)                                             Perfumes
                                                                                                 Cigarettes
                                     (15)
                                            0       10        20         30        40         50          60        70         80       90        100
                                                              % of respondent which have bought essentials and discretionary goods


Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                        33
                                                                                                                                                        25 January 2013



Figure 50: Meat consumptions as percentage of diet
                                                   2012                                     2011                                                2010
% of respondents                 Total           Urban         Rural           Total        Urban           Rural             Total             Urban          Rural
0% (0)                                    7                6             7              7            3              13                10                 7             14
0-5% (2.5)                               61               57           68              50           47              55                59                56             67
6-15% (10)                               23               25           20              25           28              20                23                27             16
16-25% (20)                               5                6             2              8           10               6                 5                 7              1
More than 25% (30)                        3                4             1              9           11               5                 2                 3              1
Don’t know                                2                2             1              1            1               1                 1                 1              1
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 51: Consumption of food and beverages
                                                                  2012                                                            2011
% of respondents                         Total      Urban      Rural         Java      Non-Java     Total        Urban           Rural            Java        Non-Java
Carbonated drinks
  Consumed in the past 3M                     70          75       60           69            89            62           70                49            59            69
  Consuming more in the next 3M               35          37       32           30            47            34           37                28            28            47
Bottled water
  Consumed in the past 3M                     90          94       82           92            85            84           90                76            90            71
  Consuming more in the next 3M               61          66       51           59            65            47           53                37            48            44
Dairy products
  Consumed in the past 3M                     66          72       56           60            81            73           81                61            71            98
  Consuming more in the next 3M               46          51       37           38            62            46           51                38            41            55
Instant noodles
  Consumed in the past 3M                     95          95       95           94            95            96           97                96            97            95
  Consuming more in the next 3M               41          38       45           52            74            54           56                50            50            61
Cigarettes
  Consumed in the past 3M                     47          47       46           47            45            59           58                60            58            60
  Consuming more in the next 3M               31          32       29           29            35            29           31                26            25            38
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 52: Consumption of personal care products
                                                                  2012                                                            2011
% of respondents                         Total      Urban      Rural         Java      Non-Java     Total        Urban          Rural             Java        Non-Java
Tissues
  Consumed in the past 3M                      54         64       34           56            47         54              66                33            57            47
  Consuming more in the next 3M                32         38       21           31            34         28              35                15            27            29
Feminine hygiene products
  Consumed in the past 3M                      76         82       65           75            80         77              82                67            78            74
  Consuming more in the next 3M                45         51       33           40            57         37              40                32            35            42
Cosmetics & skin care
  Consumed in the past 3M                      62         65       57           63            60         62              66                55            63            60
  Consuming more in the next 3M                38         40       34           36            42         30              32                28            34            34
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                         34
                                                                                                                        25 January 2013



Figure 53: Consumption of durables
                                                       2012                                               2011
% of respondents                  Total    Urban    Rural     Java        Non-Java    Total    Urban    Rural        Java        Non-Java
Fashion
 Purch past 3M                        75       76      75            70          87       51       55           43          52         48
 Purch next 3M                        64       65      63            73          78       65       69           57          66         61
Sport shoes & wear
 Purch past 3M                        20       25      12            21          19       23       27           15          23         21
 Purch next 3M                        17       21      10            23          18       20       25           11          27         18
Watches
 Purch past 12M                       17       20       9            15          19       16       21            6          14         19
 Purch next 12M                       14       16      11            12          19       10       12            5           8         14
Jewellery
 Purch past 12M                       14       16      10            14          13       14       15           11          14         13
 Purch next 12M                       16       17      14            16          16       17       20           13          18         15
Perfumes
 Purch past 12M                       38       44      28            37          42       47       57           28          46         47
 Purch next 12M                       35       40      25            32          39       45       55           26          45         45
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Instant noodles: Still popular
Among the staples that we surveyed, instant noodles continue to be the most popular.                    Instant noodle remains
Some 95% of the respondents have consumed instant noodles in the past three months                      popular—Indomie is still the
(the highest among staples) and 41% of them are looking to consume more. As a result of                 preferred brand, followed by
the already-high penetration, respondents’ desire to consume more is less than that for                 Mie Sedap
other staples; however, the popularity of instant noodles remains.
In terms of brand, Indomie maintains its popularity; in fact, its popularity has grown in this
survey compared with the previous two surveys. About 41% of the respondents prefer
Indomie, up from 36% in the previous year. Its popularity has risen the most in Java,
among the mid-income earners. We believe that this is also due to the new flavour that the
company introduced during the year (Mie Goreng Rendang, a beef-based flavour).
Indomie is Indofood CBP’s (ICBP.JK, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp8,100.00) main brand. Its
other brands such as Sarimi, Supermi and Popmie are also doing well. Sarimi is gaining
slightly as it launched Sarimi Mie Duo (two noodle blocks in one packet), which is popular
among the low- to mid-income earners. Overall, 60% respondents in our survey prefer
Indofood CBP’s products.
The second most popular instant noodle brand is Mie Sedap, manufactured by the Wings
Group (not listed). Some 31% of our respondents have consumed this brand, which is
more popular in rural areas among the low- to mid-income earners.
In 2012, we saw a hike in wheat prices, the main raw material for instant noodles, despite
weakening palm oil prices. This has caused the cost of production of instant noodles to
increase. Hence, we believe Indomie is more resilient given that its popularity has risen,
while the smaller-sized noodle producers are actually losing market share.




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                         35
                                                                                                                                                                                   25 January 2013



Figure 54: Noodle consumption, by brand—Indomie is still preferred
                                                                                                                       Age                                        Monthly income
                        Total         Urban       Rural           Java        Non-Java         18-29        30-45       46-55         56-65         <Rp1.5 mn Rp1.5-7.5 mn >Rp7.5 mn
2012
Indomie                      41           43           36               46                32       41             40         43                39               39                 41          33
Mie Sedap                    31           29           35               31                31       31             30         33                34               35                 30          24
Sarimi                          8           7              9              8                7           7            8             8            11                 9                 8            4
Supermi                         8           9              6              7                9           8            8             6             9                 8                 8          12
Gaga Mie                        0           0              0              0                1           -            1             -             -                 0                 0             -
ABC                             2           2              1              1                2           2            2             2             -                 1                 2            4
Popmie                          3           4              1              4                3           4            3             1             2                 2                 3          12
Salam Mie                       0             -            0              0                -           -            0             -             -                 -                 0             -
Alhami                          1           0              2              -                3           1            1             2             1                 2                 1             -
Mie 100                         3           3              3              0                7           2            3             2             2                 2                 3            6
Others                          4           3              5              3                6           5            4             2             2                 4                 4            4
2011
Indomie                      36           40           30               39                31       36             36         36                40               35                 36          47
Mie Sedap                    32           27           41               32                31       32             32         33                33               39                 30          34
Sarimi                          7           4          13                 8                5           7            8             8             7               10                  6             -
Supermi                         8           9              7              7               11           8            9             9             4                 7                 9             -
Gaga Mie                        0           1              -              0                1           1            0             0             1                 0                 1             -
ABC                             2           3              1              2                2           3            1             1             2                 1                 2            5
Popmie                          3           4              1              3                3           5            2             2             2                 1                 3          11
Salam Mie                       0           0              0              0                -           -            0             -             -                 -                 0             -
Alhami                          1           1              2              0                3           1            1             1             -                 2                 1             -
Mie 100                         2           2              1              0                5           2            2             2             1                 1                 2             -
Others                          8           9              5              7                9           6            8             9            11                 4                 9            3
2010
Indomie                      37           40           31               41                30       38             36         39                37               35                 38          39
Mie Sedap                    29           26           35               28                31       30             28         29                36               33                 28          24
Sarimi                          7           5          10                 8                5           6            8             7             7                 9                 6            4
Supermi                      12           11           13               11                13       11             12         12                11               13                 12            6
Gaga Mie                        1           1              1              0                2           1            1             1             -                 1                 1             -
ABC                             1           1              1              1                2           1            1             1             3                 1                 2            2
Popmie                          3           4              1              4                2           4            3             2             1                 1                 4            6
Salam Mie                       0           0              1              1                0           0            1             1             -                 0                 1             -
Alhami                          1           1              1              0                2           0            1             1             -                 1                 1             -
Mie 100                         2           3              1              0                6           3            2             1             1                 2                 2             -
Others                          6           7              4              6                6           6            6             6             5                 4                 6          18
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 55: Wheat prices                                                                                Figure 56: Palm oil prices
 10                                                                                                        4000

                                                                                                           3800
  9
                                                                                                           3600
  8                                                                                                        3400

                                                                                                           3200
  7
                                                                                                           3000
  6
                                                                                                           2800

  5                                                                                                        2600

                                                                                                           2400
  4
                                                                                                           2200

  3                                                                                                        2000
  Jan-10   May-10   Sep-10   Jan-11    May-11     Sep-11       Jan-12   May-12   Sep-12   Jan-13              Feb-10     Jul-10       Dec-10        May-11     Oct-11     Mar-12    Aug-12   Jan-13

                                        Wheat (USD/bushel)                                                                                           Palm Oil (MYR/ton)


Source: Bloomberg                                                                                      Source: Bloomberg




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                                 36
                                                                                                                 25 January 2013



Dairy products: SCM is still preferred
Surprisingly, the respondents are spending less on dairy products which we believe could          Respondents are spending
be due to increased skimmed milk prices. Some 66% of the respondents said that they               less on dairy products, but a
have consumed dairy products in the past three months, compared with the 73% in the               majority of Indonesians still
previous survey.                                                                                  consume sweet condensed
                                                                                                  milk (SCM)
Among the brands mentioned in this survey, Frissian Flag (Bendera) remains the most
popular. About 34% of the respondents favoured the brand, up from 30% in the previous
year’s survey, as a majority of Indonesians still consume sweet condensed milk (SCM).
Indofood CBP’s (ICBP.JK, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp8,100.00) product, Indomilk, maintains
its position as the second most preferred dairy product, with 20% of the respondents
favouring it.

Figure 57: Dairy products consumption, by brand
                                                                            Age                       Monthly income
% of respondents          Total   Urban   Rural   Java Non-Java   18-29   30-45 46-55   56-65 <Rp1.5 mn Rp1.5-7.5 mn >Rp7.5 mn
2012
Frissian flag (Bendera)     34       30     44     22        47     29      35    46      35         34          34          29
Indomilk                    20       20     20     19        13     17      22    15      18         23          19          11
Milk Ultra                  14       16      8     14         7     15      14    10       8         14          14          16
Nestle                      13       13     11     12         8     14      12     8      13         11          13           9
Others                      20       21     18     33        24     25      18    21      25         18          21          35
2011
Frissian flag (Bendera)     30       28     38     23        39     28      32    33      31         32          30          16
Indomilk                    20       17     29     23        11     19      20    24      21         24          20          18
Milk Ultra                  16       18      9     15        10     17      15    14      11         13          16          14
Nestle                      10       12      7      8        12     11      11     8       8          7          11          12
Others                      24       25     17     31        28     26      22    21      29         24          23          40
2010
Frissian flag (Bendera)     35       32     45     28        41     33      34    40      38         44          34          19
Indomilk                    19       17     24     20        12     19      18    20      21         23          18          14
Milk Ultra                  12       13      9     10        10     13      12     9       8         10          12          19
Nestle                      10       11      7     10         8     11      10     9       9          5          11          14
Others                      24       27     15     32        29     24      26    22      25         18          24          35
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Cigarettes: White is getting popular?
In this survey, fewer respondents said that they consumed cigarettes in the past three            Fewer smokers?
months, compared with the previous survey (47% versus 59%). However, there are more
respondents who would like to consume more in the next three months (31% versus 29%).
We believe that this is underpinned by the higher cigarette prices as well as the decline in
the cheaper cigarettes due to the scarcity of clove and tobacco (main raw materials)
during the period.
Among other cigarette types, SKM (machine made) full flavoured has maintained its                 White cigarettes are getting
dominance for the past three surveys, including the current one. Some 31% of the                  more popularity among
respondents prefer SKM, up from 29% in the previous survey. Surprisingly, this year’s             smokers …
survey showed that white cigarettes are gaining interest among the smokers, particularly
in urban areas, such as Java, and among the younger smokers of higher income earners.
About 8% of the respondents favour white cigarettes, up from 5% in the previous survey.
SKT (hand-rolled) is the second most popular type of cigarette, particularly among the
older generation, while SKM low-tar, low-nicotine remains popular among the younger
generation, in the urban areas. Some 27% of the respondents prefer SKT, down from 29%
in the previous survey, while 23% of the respondents prefer SKM low-tar, low-nicotine,
versus 24% of the respondents in the previous survey.



Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                               37
                                                                                                                                    25 January 2013



Figure 58: Cigarette consumption by age and income—preference still towards SKM full-flavoured
                                                                                                 Age                    Monthly income
% of respondents that smoke*     Total Urban Rural Java Non-Java 18-29 30-45 46-55 56-65 <Rp1.5 mn Rp1.5-7.5 mn >Rp7.5 mn
2012
SKM full-flavored                  31          28     33         32          26     28         31      34   20        31             30             18
SKT                                27          27     24         30          15     17         29      36   52        29             26             21
SKM low-tar, low nicotine          23          28     17         21          27     31         23       9    5        19             24             30
White                               8          10      6         11           7     14           8      3    5         4             10             21
Others                             11           7     20          6          24     10         10      17   17        17             10             10
2011
SKM full-flavored                  29          31     30         33          25     26         32      34   38        31             30             26
SKT                                29          25     36         36          12     22         31      40   30        33             29             24
SKM low-tar, low nicotine          24          28     15         19          33     33         22       7    8        16             26             19
White                               5           7      1          5           7       7          5      2    4         3              5             12
Others                             12           9     18          7          23     12         10      16   20        18             10             19
2010
SKM full-flavored                  41          38     46         42          36     38         42      46   35        44             38             27
SKT                                29          29     33         34          16     21         33      37   54        30             30             16
SKM low-tar, low nicotine          23          26     14         18          38     34         19       5   12        17             25             38
White                               5           6      3          5           4       5          4      6    -         3              5             19
Others                              2           1      4          1           6       2          2      4    -         5              2                 -
*SKM=machine-made cigarettes, SKT=hand-rolled cigarettes.
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

In view of the new tobacco regulation (PP No. 109/2012 dated 24 Dec 12), we asked                                 According to the new
respondents whether they consider packaging while purchasing cigarettes. The new                                  tobacco regulation, cigarette
regulation (please refer to our 14 January 2013 note, “Gudang Garam: New tobacco                                  manufacturers will put
regulation—stricter packaging design within 18 months”) covers the production process of                          pictorial health warnings in
tobacco including instructions on the use of nicotine and tar-test contents, additional                           every cigarette packaging
ingredients, as well as requiring cigarette manufacturers to put pictorial health warnings on
their packaging, aiming to convey the danger of smoking to cigarette consumers. In
addition, the new regulation also covers the distribution process which includes selling,
advertising and promotion, as well as it requires health warnings to be displayed in all
types of cigarette ads (printed, broadcast, etc.).
The majority (56% of our respondents) view that packaging is important in making a                                Packaging is important, as
decision to purchase cigarettes. Also, majority of the respondents (51%) stated that if                           well as pricing
everything looks identical, the likelihood of switching to cheaper brands is high.

Figure 59: Decision to purchase and likelihood to switch
Importance of packaging in decision to purchase                              If all things looked identical, the likelihood to switch to cheaper
                                                                             brand?
% of respondents that smoke       Total             Urban        Rural       % of respondents that smoke           Total        Urban      Rural
Very important                            20                22        15     Very likely                                13          12             13
Quite important                           36                29        48     Quite likely                               38          34             45
Not very important                        41                44        35     Not very likely                            41          42             39
Irrelevant                                 1                 1           1   Not at all likely                             4         5              2
I don't know                               3                 4           1   I don't know                                  5         7              2
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Nevertheless, among the brands, Dji Sam Soe (SKT), manufactured by HM Sampoerna
(HMSP.JK) continues to lead. Sampoerna A-Mild (SKM low-tar, low-nicotine), also by HM
Sampoerna, comes second. Gudang Garam Surya (SKM full-flavored) and Gudang
Garam Filter (SKM full-flavored), made by Gudang Garam (GGRM.JK, UNDERPERFORM,
TP Rp44,600.00) is the third and fourth most popular brand, respectively. Djarum Super
(SKM full-flavoured), from the unlisted Djarum Group, is the fifth most popular brand, down
from fourth in the previous survey.




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                     38
                                                                                                          25 January 2013


About 17% and 16% of the respondents prefer Dji Sam Soe and Sampoerna A-Mild, up
from 14% and 12% from the previous year’s survey, while GG Surya and GG Filter is
favoured by 15% and 9% of the respondents, up from 11% and 9%, respectively. This is in
line with the responses we received when price was not a consideration—majority of the
respondents prefer Dji Sam Soe, followed by Sampoerna A-Mild and GG Surya.
Overall, HM Sampoerna’s products across various brands are favoured by 45% of the           HM Sampoerna’s products
respondents, up from 37% in the previous year’s survey. Gudang Garam’s products are         are favoured by most of the
chosen by 24% of the respondents, up from 20% in the previous year’s survey. Djarum’s       respondents, followed by
products, on the other hand, are favoured by 12% of our respondents, down from 18% in       Gudang Garam’s and
the previous year’s survey.                                                                 Djarum’s products
In the white cigarettes category, Marlboro from Philip Morris is the leading brand; 5% of
the respondents favour the product, compared with the 4% in the previous year. This is in
line with the response we received when price was not a consideration; Marlboro is the
preferred white cigarette. Dunhill from Bentoel Intl (RMBA.JK), a BAT company, is the
second most favoured white cigarette, with 2% of respondents favouring the brand.

Figure 60: If price was not a consideration, which cigarette brands would you purchase?
 20%
 18%
 16%
 14%
 12%
 10%
  8%
  6%
  4%
  2%
  0%




Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                        39
                                                                                                                               25 January 2013



Figure 61: Cigarette consumption, by brand—DSS maintains its popularity
                                                                                 Age                                 Monthly income
% of respondents that smoke      Total Urban Rural Java Non-Java 18-29       30-45       46-55       56-65       <Rp1.5   Rp1.5-7.5   >Rp7.5
                                                                                                                    mn          mn       mn
2012
Dji Sam Soe                        17     22     8     17    14     12          20          21          17           9          18         15
Sampoerna A Mild                   16     19    10     15    17     22          14               8           3      11          16         30
Gudang Garam Surya                 15     14    15     12    23     12          16          18          15          18          14         12
Other brands                       11      6    20      6    23     10               9      17          17          16          10         10
Gudang Garam Filter                 9      8    10     11      3         8      10               9           3       8           9          3
Djarum Super                        7      6     8     10      -         8           5           7           3       5           7          3
Sampoerna Hijau                     5      3     9      7      1         3           6           8      11           7           4          7
Marlboro                            5      5     2      5      2         6           5           -           -       1           5          9
Clas Mild                           4      4     4      2      8         5           3           1           -       3           4          -
Djarum Coklat                       2      1     3      3      -         1           2           4      11           6           1          -
Dunhill                             2      3     1      2      2         3           1           1           -        -          2          9
Minak Djinggo                       2      1     3      2      1         1           2           3           6       2           2          -
U Mild                              2      3     1      2      1         3           2           -           -       3           2          -
Benson & Hedges                     1      1     1      1      1         1           2           1           -       1           1          -
Star Mild                           1      1     1      1      -         1           2           -           -       1           1          -
LA Lights                           1      1     1      1      -         1           2           -           -        -          1          -
Djarum 76                           1      -     2      1      -         1           -           1           6       4           0          -
Djarum Black                        1      1      -     1      -         1           -           -           3       1           0          3
Camel                                -     -     1      0      -         -           -           1           -       1            -         -
Lucky Strike                         -     -     1      0      1         1           1           -           -        -          0          -
Pall Mall                            -     -     1      1      -         1           -           -           -        -          0          -
Wills Gold Flake                     -     1      -     0      1         -           1           -           -        -          0          -
GL                                   -     -     1      -      1         -           -           1           3       1           0          -
X Mild                               -     1      -     -      1         1           1           -           -       1           0          -
2011
Dji Sam Soe                        14     16    12     17      8    12          17          16               7      11          16         19
Sampoerna A Mild                   12     14     8     11    15     18          11               4           4       8          14         15
Gudang Garam Surya                 11     12    10      9    20          9      13          13          19          10          12         13
Private labels                     10      8    14      7    18          9           8      16          20          15           8         19
Djarum Super                       10      8    13     14      1    11               9      10               8      12           9          8
Gudang Garam Filter                 9     10     7     11      4         7      11          10          11           9           9          5
Djarum Coklat                       6      3    11      8      1         4           6           9      12          10           5          -
Sampoerna Hijau                     5      4     8      7      3         5           6           8           8       7           6          -
Clas Mild                           5      6     4      1    12          7           4           1           -       2           5          -
Marlboro                            4      6     1      4      6         6           4           2           4       3           4          7
Star Mild                           2      3     1      3      2         3           2           1           -       1           3          -
U Mild                              2      3     1      3      1         3           2           -           4       3           2          -
X Mild                              2      1     4      0      5         3           1           1           -       2           2          -
Minak Djinggo                       1      -     3      2      -         1           1           1           2       1           1          5
LA Lights                           1      1     1      2      1         2           1           -           -       1           1          4
Djarum 76                           1      1     1      2      0         1           1           4           2       2           1          -
Palem                               1      -     1      0      0         -           -           1           -       1           0          -
GL                                  1      1      -     -      1         -           1           1           -        -          0          -
Djarum Black                        1      1      -     1      1         1           -           -           -        -          1          -
Ardath                              1      1      -     0      1         -           1           1           -       1           0          -
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                             40
                                                                                                                             25 January 2013



Personal care: Unilever dominates
Majority of our respondents consume personal-care products; however, they are not                             In the personal care
looking to consume more than what they have been. Compared with the previous year’s                           category, Unilever’s
survey, the respondents are looking to consume more.                                                          products dominate
In the cosmetics category, Unilever Indonesia’s (UNVR.JK, UNDERPERFORM, TP
Rp15,725.00) products are dominant. Some 48% of the respondents are using cosmetics
made by Unilever, up from 38% in the previous year’s survey. This stems from a
combination of strong brand equity as well as its long existence in Indonesia (of nearly 80
years); thus, its brands are already widely recognised.
Citra, Unilever’s local skin care brand, is gaining share in this survey. Some 21% of the
respondents are favouring Citra, up from 15% in the previous year’s survey. Citra has
surpassed Ponds, which is favoured by 18% of the respondents, versus 17% in the
previous year’s survey. Citra, which has been in the Indonesian skin care market since
1984, is made from Indonesian natural ingredients with a strong heritage, and is favoured
in rural areas among the younger generation.

Figure 62: Cosmetics and skin care consumption, by brand—Unilever products are dominant
                                                                                          Age                    Monthly income
 % of respondents      Total       Urban       Rural       Java        Non-Java 18-29 30-45 46-55 56-65 <Rp1.5 mn Rp1.5-7.5 mn >Rp7.5 mn
2012
Ponds                      18          19          16             19         16    23    17     10   14         13           20          18
Citra                      21          19          26             18         29    21    21     18   19         21           21          21
Viva                           9           8       11             11          6     5     9     21   13         15            8           5
Lux                            9           9       11              9         10     7    10     11   11         13            8           8
Sariayu                        5           5           3           6          2     4     5      5    6          5            5           3
Others                     38          40          33             38         37    39    38     35   37         33           38          45
2011
Ponds                      17          17          16             18         16    20    17     12    7         15           17          16
Citra                      15          14          18             12         20    15    16     12   14         14           15           6
Viva                           9           7       14             12          4     6     9     17   15         14            7           4
Lux                            6           7           4           6          6     6     5      7    5          7            5           7
Sariayu                        4           5           3           5          2     3     4      5    5          3            4           2
Others                     50          51          45             48         52    50    48     49   54         46           50          65
2010
Ponds                      24          24          22             25         20    30    20     17   13         22           24          26
Citra                      19          18          23             16         27    21    17     19   17         24           18          20
Viva                       11          10          14             13          7     6    12     20   18         15           10           3
Lux                        12          11          14             10         14    11    13     12    8          9           12           7
Sariayu                        5           6           4           6          4     3     8      4    5          4            6           5
Others                     29          32          24             30         28    28    31     28   38         27           30          38
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Key stocks
Within the Indonesia food and beverage sector, we like Indofood CBP (ICBP.JK,                                 We like ICBP and MAPI—as
OUTPERFORM, TP Rp8,100.00) as it is widely exposed to the products that consumers                             we believe they are potential
seek to buy. It also has strong brand equity with innovative products such as the beef-based                  beneficiaries of rising
noodle (Mie Goreng Rendang) and the recently launched new product of Mie Goreng Cabe                          consumption of
Ijo. Noodle is the highest contributor to the company, accounting for 64% of revenue with                     Indonesians—not GGRM
79% of operating profit, and its operating margins stood at 16.5% in 2013E. Within its                        and UNVR due to their
product portfolio, Indofood CBP also has dairy products as one of the category. Dairy will be                 demanding valuations
its second largest contributor, accounting for 20% of revenue and 12% of operating profit
with a margin at 8% in 2013E. The completion of its new factory should help boost volumes
this year, with sales volume expected to rise 18% YoY, on a 3% ASP increase.



Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                           41
                                                                                           25 January 2013


In the cigarettes space, we do not favour Gudang Garam (GGRM.JK, UNDERPERFORM,
TP Rp44,600.00) due to valuation and still-limited exposure to the fastest growing
category, even though its existing products continue to be favoured by our respondents.
We also do not favour Unilever Indonesia (UNVR.JK, UNDERPERFORM, TP
Rp15,725.00) due to its demanding valuation, despite its strong brand equity.
However, in view of the rising middle-income segment and higher confidence among
Indonesian consumers, this survey found that spending on discretionary items is more
than that on the essentials. Spending on fashion apparel has increased by about 25%, the
highest among the items we surveyed. We believe this will benefit the mid- to high-end
retailer Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI.JK, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp8,100.00). The company is
managing more than 100 global brands across its divisions, with more than half of the
revenue contribution coming from speciality stores, followed by department stores and
food and beverage. We expect its strong SSSG to continue due to rising middle- and high-
income segments—with a consolidated SSSG of 14% as of FY12, and with specialty
stores posting the strongest SSSG of 17%, followed by department stores 13%, F&B 9%
and others 3%. We expect its SSSG to reach 13% this year.




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                         42
                                                                                                                       25 January 2013




Telecoms sector
In view of the rise of middle-income population and increased confidence among                         Increased penetration of
Indonesian consumers, spending on discretionary items is rising more than that on the                  basic mobile phones and
essentials. Basic mobile phones are still preferred to smartphones, which could be due to              smartphones
their affordability; basic mobile phones are likely to rise by less than 10% (versus
smartphones by 5%). Based on our survey, basic mobile phone penetration increased
from 67% in 2010 to 79% in 2012. Similarly, smartphone users also increased from 13% in
2010 to 22% in 2012. On average, respondents have been using their current handsets for
21 months and will be looking to buy a new phone in the next 13 months, in line with our
previous survey results.
On average, monthly phone bill has declined to Rp77,000 from Rp80,000, which we
believe is due to the competition among telecoms providers. We also believe that the
increasing use of data also contributes to the decline, as data is cheaper than voice.

Figure 63: Utilisation of mobile phone services
                                                                                         Age                     Monthly income
                                            Total Urban Rural    Java Non-Java   18-29 30-45 46-55 56-65      <Rp1.5 Rp1.5-      >Rp7.5
                                                                                                                 mn 7.5 mn          mn
2012
Mobile phone ownership     % respondents      79       86   66     80       77      90     80    64      48       64       82            98
 Is it a smartphone        % respondents      22       26   13     21       25      26     21    16      15       13       22            45
Current handset age        Months             21       21   20     21       20      18     22    22      25       20       21            19
Timing for next purchase   Months             13       12   13     13       12      13     12    13      12       14       12             9
Upgrade to smartphone?     % respondents      52       56   40     47       52      57     47    54      25       61       46            54
Av monthly mob phone bill Rp               77,334 81,104 68,051 77,290   77,441 74,174 81,897 70,377 85,577   58,284 77,808     125,000
Access to internet         % respondents        9      12    4     90       91      14      8      5      4        4       10            19
2011
Mobile phone ownership     % respondents      71       80   56     71       73      86     72    49      42       54       79            84
 Is it a smartphone        % respondents      17       17   15     15       21      19     16    14      13       10       17            57
Current handset age        Months             20       20   20     20       20      18     21    22      24       18       20            19
Timing for next purchase   Months             13       12   14     12       14      13     12    13      14       13       12            15
Upgrade to smartphone?     % respondents      39       40   37     58       68      45     34    28      38       68       60            40
Av monthly mob phone bill Rp               79,934 85,172 66,582 78,479   83,410 77,831 80,374 90,991 70,745   61,914 82,653     185,714
Access to internet         % respondents      15       20    5     86       83      25     13      3      3        5       18            54
2010
Mobile phone ownership     % respondents      67       76   51     67       68      80     66    54      35       46       74            91
 Is it a smartphone        % respondents      13       14    9     12       14      14     13      6     14       10       12            38
Current handset age        Months             19       19   19     19       21      18     21    19      22       19       20            16
Timing for next purchase   Months             11       11   12     12       10      11     12      9     12       13       11            16
Upgrade to smartphone?     % respondents      37       39   31     63       62      48     28    28      13       73       61            63
Av monthly mob phone bill Rp               79,568 82,643 70,865 77,049   85,280 75,915 82,143 82,056 86,806   61,319 82,129     141,667
Access to internet         % respondents      14       18    5     87       86      26      8      3      1        7       15            37
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Nokia remains popular and is still the market leader in Indonesia. Some 42% of the                     Nokia remains popular, with
respondents own a Nokia handset, although this declined from its peak of 61% in 2010.                  Samsung and Blackberry
Blackberry, on the other hand, is gaining popularity. Its market share in 2010 was only 1%,            gaining share
which rose to 8% in 2012. Samsung also grew its market share to 9% in 2012. Samsung is
slightly more popular than Blackberry, given the price range of its handsets matches the
varied income levels of Indonesians. In terms of the next purchase of the respondents,
Nokia is still the most preferred brand at 47%, followed by Blackberry at 28% and
Samsung at 10%.




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                     43
                                                                                                                                    25 January 2013



Figure 64: Nokia remains popular ...
                                                                                        Age                               Monthly income
                 Total      Urban           Rural   Java Non-Java        18-29       30-45     46-55       56-65      <Rp1.5   Rp1.5-7.5   >Rp7.5
                                                                                                                         mn          mn       mn
2012
Nokia               42            40          49      38        53         38          42        57          44           41         43         36
Samsung              9             8          10      10         6         11           8             5      10            7          9          7
Blackberry           8            10           3       8         8         11           8             3           6        1          8         21
Nexian               6             6           7       8         1          8           4             6           6        8          6          4
Others              35            36          31      35        32         32          38        29          34           42         33         31
2011
Nokia               49            48          52      43        65         45          50        59          66           49         51         19
Samsung              4             4           2       4         2          4           3             4           4        2          4         14
Blackberry           3             4            -      4         2          3           3             4           -        1          3         33
Nexian               6             6           6       6         5          7           5             4           2        5          5          5
Others              38            38          40      43        26         41          39        29          28           43         37         28
2010
Nokia               61            59          67      57        72         57          61        71          78           61         61         67
Samsung              3             3           3       3         2          3           2             6           -        3          3          5
Blackberry           1             1            -      2         0          1           1             -           -        -          1          -
Nexian               5             5           4       5         5          6           5             2           3        7          5          5
Others              30            32          26      34        21         33          31        21          19           29         30         24
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 65: ... but BlackBerry is in the wish list

                 Total           Urban      Rural   Java   Non-Java       18-29      30-45    46-55       56-65 <Rp1.5mn Rp1.5-7.5mn >Rp7.5mn
2012
Nokia               47                 41     59      38         65         37         46       76          76            60         44         50
Blackberry          28                 33     17      32         17         34         26       13          10            17         29         29
Others              13                 14     12      16         10         15         15       10           9            18         13         12
Samsung             10                 11      9      12             6      13         11         -           -            3         12          8
Nexian               2                  1      3       2             2           1      2        1           5             3          2          -
2011
Nokia               58                 52     70      53         68         53         61       63          68            61         58         27
Blackberry          15                 19      6      17         12         20         12        8           5             6         17         47
Others              16                 17     14      16         15         16         15       16           5            20         14         27
Samsung              5                  7      2       7             2           4      6        8          11             5          5          -
Nexian               6                  5      8       7             3           7      6        5          11             7          6          -
2010
Nokia               70                 69     71      66         79         65         71       79          79            73         68         83
Blackberry          11                 14      6      12             9      14         10       10            -           11         12         17
Others              13                 11     16      14             8      14         13        6          21            11         14          -
Samsung              2                  3      1       2             2           2      2        4            -            1          2          -
Nexian               4                  3      6       5             2           5      4        1            -            4          4          -
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Telkomsel remains the market leader among the mobile phone service providers. However,                                Telkomsel remains the
Telkomsel’s market share is slightly down from last year’s. Indosat, at the second position,                          market leader; CDMA is less
is gaining market share, up from 19% to 23%. Excel is positioned third and has also                                   favoured
gained market share from 9% to 12% this year.
On the other hand, CDMA operators such as Esia and Telkom Fleksi have seen market
share declines, suggesting that CDMA in Indonesia is still less popular than GSM service.
On an average, respondents spend Rp77,000/month on their mobile phone bill, with urban
respondents spending around 20% higher than rural respondents and the trend is catching
up as income levels go up. This is lesser than previous years’ Rp80,000/month.



Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                  44
                                                                                                                                       25 January 2013


For selecting the service provider, 29% of the respondents said that better network                                     Better coverage remains the
coverage is the most important attribute, while 27% said cheaper tariffs, and 20% said                                  most important attribute that
group user feature is the key. Better network coverage remains the key, especially among                                customers look for
rural and outside Java respondents. This is why Telkomsel, which has better coverage, is
still preferred by outside Java users (84% outside java vs 25% in Java). Respondents also
demand cheaper tariffs. This is especially seen among younger respondents and the low-
income group.

Figure 66: Telkomsel remains the market leader as a service provider, especially in the outside Java market, due to its
better coverage
                                                                                             Age                           Monthly income
                        Total        Urban       Rural       Java   Non-Java    18-29 30-45 46-55            56-65 <Rp1.5 mn Rp1.5-7.5 mn >Rp7.5 mn
2012
Telkomsel                 43            45         36          25         84      32         50     50         50         38           42          57
Indosat                   23            17         37          30          6      26         19     22         25         23           22          16
Esia                       6             7          3           9          -           4      7     12          6          7            6           4
Excel                     12            12         12          15          3      15         11      7          8         16           12           6
Telkom Fleksi              5             6          2           6          1           3      6      8          4          7            5           6
Others                    11            13         10          14          6      20          7      1          7          9           13          12
2011
Telkomsel                 45            44         46          28         83      39         48     52         51         39           45          47
Indosat                   19            16         26          25          3      24         15     13         13         22           18          29
Esia                      13            16          6          18          2      11         15     13         19         11           14          10
Excel                      9             9          9          11          6      11          8      6          6         10            9          10
Telkom Fleksi              9             9         10          11          5           7     10     12         11         11            9           5
Others                     5             6          3           8          0           8      4      4           -         7            6           -
2010
Telkomsel                 47            46         51          31         84      43         49     51         58         50           45          86
Indosat                   18            17         22          25          3      22         17     12         14         15           19           5
Esia                      12            15          5          17          2      10         14     17         11          9           14           5
Excel                      9             9         11          11          4      12          9      3          3         14            9           5
Telkom Fleksi              8             8          8          10          5           6      8     15         11          8            9           -
Others                     6             5          3           6          2           7      3      2          3          4            4           0
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 67: Desired attributes of telecommunications operators, 2012
                                                                                             Age                           Monthly income
                          Total      Urban        Rural      Java   Non-Java   18-29       30-45   46-55 56-65 <Rp1.5 mn Rp1.5-7.5 mn >Rp7.5 mn
Better coverage                 29       29         31         29         32     27          31      31        32         29           30          29
Cheaper tariffs                 27       25         30         28         24     29          25      26        21         29           26          25
Group user                      20       21         20         22         18     19          20      25        25         23           20          22
Better voice services            9           9           8      8          9      8          10          7     10          7            9           8
Attractive promotions            7           7           6      6          8      9           5          6      3          6            7           7
Better data services             4           4           2      4          4      4           4          3      4          2            4           4
Better cust. service             3           4           2      2          5      3           3          1      4          3            3           4
Attractive handsets              1           0           1      1          1      1           1          0       -         1            1           1
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                     45
                                                                                                                                                     25 January 2013



Figure 68: Kinds of service on the Internet, 2012
                                                                                                          Age                           Monthly income
                                Total       Urban      Rural      Java Non-Java              18-29 30-45 46-55 56-65              <Rp1.5mn Rp1.5-7.5mn >Rp7.5mn
Social network                     39          39        50            39              44           41     40      32    14             41             39        43
Instant messaging                  27          27        27            31              20           27     27      32    14             37             27        30
Gaming                             15          16          7           12              20           18     13       -    14             14             14        13
Shopping                             8          9          7            8               9            9      6      16         -          5              9         9
Banking                              6          6          7            8               3            1      9      16    57               -             6         4
Travel                               4          4          3            3               5            3      5       5         -          5              4          -
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 69: Which is your Internet service provider?
 70
                  2012                                                2011                                  2010
 60

 50

 40

 30

 20

 10

  0
          Total      Java        Non-Java      Total           Java         Non-Java        Total         Java     Non-Java

                            Telkom Flash     Speedy      Fastnet (Firstmedia)      IM2        Telkomnet

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Key stocks
We like Erajaya Swasembada Tbk (ERAA.JK, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp3,300.00),                                                                 We like ERAA as we believe
Indonesia’s largest distributor of mobile phones; its portfolio includes popular brands such                                         it is a potential beneficiary of
as BlackBerry, Samsung, Apple, Sony Ericsson and Nokia. Erajaya’s distribution business                                              Indonesia’s rising mobile
is the major contributor to its revenue, despite the company continuing to expand its retail                                         phone and
business. Currently, its retail business contributes less than 30% to its revenue. As of end-                                        telecommunications
2012, it operated 399 stores. During the year, it opened 101 stores (including two new                                               penetration
iBox, and 19 stores from iBox acquisition). This year, it plans to add 105 stores (including
35 iBox and six Megastores). Most of the new stores will be located outside Java.
Management expects its retail business to contribute around 40% to revenue by 2015 with
a total of 800 stores. The expansion in the retail business makes sense as its margins are
better than that in the distribution business (the difference varies between brands;
however, on a blended basis, it is around 100-200 bp higher for retail). Management also
estimates that the SSSG for 2012 is around 22%, versus 18% in 2011. It expects an 18-
20% SSSG for this year. With the government increasing the minimum wage, we believe
Erajaya could benefit. The company’s extensive distribution network and brand portfolio
enable it to penetrate the rise in consumers’ purchasing power. Moreover, the majority of
its revenue (69%) is derived from Jabodetabek and Kalimantan, both of which have the
highest average minimum wage increase compared with other provinces.




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                   46
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 25 January 2013




Healthcare sector
We believe the Indonesian healthcare sector still has significant growth potential due to                                                                                                     We foresee significant
the current low penetration of the sector. Indonesia’s per-capita healthcare expenditure is                                                                                                   growth potential in the
among the lowest compared to other countries. Although we observe increasing                                                                                                                  healthcare sector given the
healthcare expenditure as a percentage of GDP in Indonesia over the years, the level is                                                                                                       current low penetration
still the lowest compared with other countries.

Figure 70: Indonesia healthcare expenditure per capita is                                                                Figure 71: Healthcare expenditure as a percentage of GDP
among the lowest …                                                                                                       is also the lowest among other countries …
                                                990
                                         1000                                                                                                                 10
                                                                                                                                                                     9        9
                                          900                                                                                                                  9

                                          800                                                                                                                  8
   Health expenditure per capita (USD)




                                                                                                                                                                                       7




                                                                                                                             Health expenditure as % of GDP
                                                          678
                                          700                       649                                                                                        7

                                          600                                 525                                                                              6
                                                                                                                                                                                               5        5
                                          500                                                                                                                  5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                4
                                          400                                                                                                                  4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          3
                                          300                                                                                                                  3
                                                                                        221
                                          200                                                                                                                  2
                                                                                                   77     54
                                          100                                                                                                                  1
                                           0                                                                                                                   0
                                                Brazil   Turkey   South     Russia     China Indonesia   India                                                     Brazil   South    Turkey   China   Russia   India   Indonesia
                                                                  Africa                                                                                                    Africa

Source: World Bank data (2010)                                                                                           Source: World Bank data (2010)

Figure 72: Increasing trend of health expenditure as a percentage of GDP
 50                                                                                                                                                                                   3.5
 48
 46                                                                                                                                                                                   3.0
 44
 42                                                                                                                                                                                   2.5
 40
 38                                                                                                                                                                                   2.0
 36
 34                                                                                                                                                                                   1.5
 32
 30                                                                                                                                                                                   1.0
                                         1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

                                                         Public health exp. as % of total health exp.            Health exp. as % of GDP (RHS)

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Indonesia is one market where our survey respondents registered higher spend on
healthcare over the past two years, and this corresponds with the number of respondents
reproving effectively lower access to state-funded pharmaceuticals and vaccines. Only
about 35-40% of the respondents claimed access to state-funded healthcare against
government statistics of around 46% of the population being covered by health insurance
schemes. Quality healthcare services available close by in places such as Singapore has
led to significant expenditure on health outside of the local market for the wealthier
Indonesians.
Some 34% of the respondents reported to have access to State-funded healthcare, the
lowest among emerging countries. Access to state-funded healthcare has declined in 2012
compared with 2011. We found that 34% and 49% of the respondents in the rural areas



Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                     47
                                                                                                                  25 January 2013


and outside Java utilise state healthcare facilities, while only 33% and 27% of the
respondents in urban areas and in Java do so. This suggests that Java respondents prefer
to use private healthcare facilities as they can afford it.

Figure 73: Access to state healthcare declining
                                   People with access to State Healthcare (%)
 70
                                                                        62                  2010
                 2012                               2011
 60
                                    49                                                                      51
 50                                                      45
                                           40
 40                                                37
       34            34                                                        34      35
               33                                                                             33
                                                                 30
 30                          27                                                                      27


 20

 10

  0
      Total   Urban Rural   Java   Non    Total   Urban Rural   Java   Non    Total   Urban Rural   Java   Non
      2012                         Java   2011                         Java   2010                         Java

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Since 2005, there is a government-funded healthcare scheme operating for the poor—
Jamkesmas—which provides drugs from the Essential Drug List (EDL). There is also a
health insurance scheme, Askes, which reimburses drugs from the broader Daftar Plafon
Harga Obat (DPHO). Prices are not the same under each programme, and manufacturers
of branded drugs can now price their products only up to 3x the price of molecules which
are listed on the EDL.
Doctors dominate the medicine-brand decision-making in Indonesia, while the patient only
decides 18% of the consumption by self. Poly pharmacy is popular with multiple scripts
from doctors and high sales of antibiotics. Hospitals earn fees from dispensing and doctors
also receive financial incentives for prescribing.
Only a small number of people expect to spend more on medicine in 2013, according to
our survey. Our survey also found that people in the middle income group are willing to
pay more for international brands of medicine.




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                48
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 25 January 2013



Figure 74: Doctors dominate medicine brand decisions in                                                                                     Figure 75: Only a small number of people expect to spend
Indonesia                                                                                                                                   more on medicine
                                           Medicine brand deciders                                                                                             60                                                                                                                57
                                                                                                                                                                                        55                             54                         55
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              50
                             The patient                                                                                                                       50
                               18%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       45
                                                                                                                                                                                                   41                        42
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       40                                39
                                                                                                                                                               40




                                                                                                                                            % of respondents
                                                                                                                                                               30
                                                                                                           The doctor
                                                                                                             46%
                                                                                                                                                               20


                                                                                                                                                               10
                                                                                                                                                                                4                                 4                          5                            4                              4
        The pharmacist
             36%                                                                                                                                                   -
                                                                                                                                                                               Total 2012                         Urban                          Rural                        Java                     Non Java

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      More             The same                 Less

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey                                                                                             Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey

Figure 76: How much extra would you be willing to pay for an international medicine brand, rather than a locally
produced product?
                                                                                                                                                         Would
                                                                    Less than Rp1,000 Rp1,500- Rp2,000 Rp3,000 Rp5,000 Rp7,500- Rp10,000 More than prefer not
                                                              Total    1,000k - 1,500k 2,000k - 3,000k - 5,000k - 7,500k 10,000k - 15,000k Rp15,000k to answer
Not prepared to pay extra                                        69        83       79      69      65       67       64      64        77        79        73
Prepared to pay 1-10% extra                                     24                        16                 18                        24               27                          25                            26                     20                         15                                   7                          20
Prepared to pay 11-20% extra                                          6                     1                 3                         5                      7                         6                         9                     12                             0                                7                              7
Prepared to pay 21-30% extra                                          1                     0                 0                         1                      0                         2                         1                         0                          0                                7                              0
Prepared to pay > 30% extra                                           0                     0                 0                         1                      0                         0                         0                         4                          8                                0                              0
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

The top 15 corporations account for around 55% of the market and multinationals account
for around 33% of sales, slightly lower than five years ago due to growth in the local
generics industry, part of which is state-owned.

Figure 77: % breakdown of disposable income spending                                                                                        Figure 78: IMS top corporations 2011
  35%                                                                                                                                                                  1,000
                                                                                          2012         2011                  2010                                       900
  30%
                                                                                                                                                                        800
  25%                                                                                                                                                                   700
                                                                                                                                                       Sales $bn




                                                                                                                                                                        600
  20%
                                                                                                                                                                        500
  15%                                                                                                                                                                   400
  10%                                                                                                                                                                   300
                                                                                                                                                                        200
   5%
                                                                                                                                                                        100
   0%                                                                                                                                                                      -
                                                                                                                               Other
                              Food




                                                      Autos




                                                                              Education
          Public Utilities




                                                                                                 Savings


                                                                                                              Mobile phone
                                                                                          HPC
                                      Entertainment




                                                                 Healthcare




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Pharos




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Novartis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Sanofi
                                                                                                                                                                                    Kalbe Pharma


                                                                                                                                                                                                           Dexa




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             GSK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Abbott




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Fahrenheit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Bayer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Kimia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Interbat
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Pfizer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Tempo
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Sanbe


                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Soho
           Housing +




Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                        Source: IMS data, Credit Suisse estimates




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     49
                                                                                                             25 January 2013



Key stocks
Due to its demanding valuation, we do not favour Kalbe Farma (KLBF.JK,                        KLBF is a beneficiary of
UNDERPERFORM, TP Rp800.00) despite the stock being a potential beneficiary of                 Indonesia’s rising healthcare
Indonesia’s rising exposure to healthcare and growing consumption. The implementation         and consumption. However,
of universal healthcare coverage is expected to start in 2014. Management expects this to     we do not favour the stock
happen in stages and benefit mostly generic drugs. As such, it is ready to supply the drugs
with the commencement of its new factory. Kalbe Farma has a 12% market share and will
be competing with state-owned pharmaceutical companies such as Kimia Farma and
Indofarma. Prescription pharma division accounts for 25% of its total revenue, of which
10% is from unbranded generics, 32% from licensed products and 58% from branded
generics. The prescription pharma division accounts for 32% of its total gross profit, with
gross margin, as of 9M12, at 62%. The recent weakness of the rupiah against the USD
has prompted management to increase its pricing by around 3-5% in March/April for its
generic drugs.




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                           50
                                                                                                                                        25 January 2013




Property sector
Our survey found that around 74% of respondents either have houses or their family                                     Indonesia has the highest
members own houses. Indonesia has the highest respondents wanting to buy a house,                                      respondents wanting to buy
compared with other countries in our survey. This is supported by the confidence seen in                               a house, compared with
terms of income and personal finance outlook among the Indonesian respondents. Some                                    other countries in our survey
30% of the respondents plan to buy a house in the next two years, this is up from 25% in
the previous survey. Of those, 37% are first-time home buyers, while 39% are looking to
upgrade from their current property.
Penetration of mortgage in Indonesia is still low, at only 9%; a similar level was seen in our                         Indonesia mortgage
previous survey. This is likely to increase. Some 30% of the respondents said they plan to                             penetration is only 9%;
buy property in the next two years and from those, 33% said they are considering using                                 however more people are
mortgage to purchase their next property.                                                                              considering mortgage to
                                                                                                                       purchase their next property
Figure 79: Property ownership and potential purchase
% of respondents                 Total       Urban        Rural     Java Non-Java 18-29 30-45       46-55 56-65 <Rp1.5mn Rp1.5-7.5mn >Rp7.5mn
2012
Property ownership                 74           65          90        74         73     70    72       84       86         77            73         79
Planning to buy in next 2 yrs?     30           34          22        28         33     30    33       29       15         21            32         43
Reason to buy
 Upgrade                           39           34          53        36         44     38    38       37       59         51            38         26
 First-time home buyer             37           39          30        38         35     46    35       28        6         36            37         39
 Investment                        15           16          12        14         16      8    17       20       29          2            17         22
 Change of location                 9           11           5        12            4    6    10       14        6         11             8         13
 Holiday property                    -           -           1            0         1    1     0           2     0             -          1          -
2011
Property ownership                 70           63          83        73         63     65    68       78       81         67            70         85
Planning to buy in next 2 yrs?     25           28          18        25         23     27    27       20       11         17            27         37
Reason to buy
 Upgrade                           31           32          28        33         26     27    29       47       50         32            31         10
 First-time home buyer             45           46          42        43         51     53    45       26       17         53            44         10
 Investment                        17           16          19        17         16     13    19       21       17          8            17         80
 Change of location                 7            5          11            7         8    7     7           6    17          7             7          -
 Holiday property                    -           -            -           -         -    0     0           0     0             -          -          -
2010
Property ownership                 73           66          86        74         71     67    70       86       92         71            74         69
Planning to buy in next 2 yrs?     24           30          12        24         22     23    27       22       11         15            27         42
Reason to buy
 Upgrade                           38           39          35        39         37     35    36       48       55         42            37         55
 First-time home buyer             33           32          37        32         35     36    40           6     0         48            31         18
 Investment                        13           12          18        12         18      9    12       22       36          2            15         27
 Change of location                15           17           7        17         11     19     9       24        9          8            17          -
 Holiday property                    -           -            -           -         -    0     0           0     0             -          -          -
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 80: Percentage of respondents using financing facilities to acquire their property
                                                             2012                                                       2011
% of respondents                  Total        Urban              Rural       Java Non-Java        Total       Urban      Rural        Java Non-Java
 Current                                 9           16              2          9        12           8           10               7     9           7
 Future                              33              38             17         31        37          40           45           27       40          40
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                      51
                                                                                                                                                                                                           25 January 2013



Figure 81: Indonesia has the highest respondent wanting                                                                                              Figure 82: More people looking to upgrade houses
to buy a house
                                                           35                                                                                         50
                                                                                                                                                                                  45
   % of respondents wanting to buy a house in next 2 yrs




                                                                30                                                                                    45
                                                           30                                                                                                 39
                                                                                                                                                      40                    37
                                                                     25
                                                                          24        24
                                                           25                  23                                                                     35
                                                                                         22             22                                                         31
                                                                                              20                                                      30
                                                                                                             19
                                                           20
                                                                                                                  17
                                                                                                   16                                                 25
                                                                                                                            14 14
                                                           15                                                                       13                20                                            17
                                                                                                                                                                                               15
                                                                                                                       10
                                                                                                                                                      15
                                                           10                                                                            8
                                                                                                                                                 7                                                          9
                                                                                                                                             6        10                                                         7
                                                            5
                                                                                                                                                       5

                                                            0                                                                                          0
                                                                Indonesia      Brazil            China       Saudi           India       Russia               Upgrade     First-time home     Investment    Change of
                                                                                                                                                                               buyer                        location
                                                                                          2012      2011     2010
                                                                                                                                                                                   2012     2011

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                 Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                                                          52
                                                                                                                25 January 2013




Banks sector
Some 39% of the respondents currently use financing to purchase four-wheelers, up from           About 39% and 61% of the
34% last year. However, for future four-wheeler purchase, 57% of the respondents said            respondents currently use
they will use the financing facility. For two-wheelers, the percentage of respondents            financing to purchase four-
currently using financing has increased from 61% in the previous survey to 66% this year.        wheelers and two-wheelers,
However, the percentage of respondents who will use financing in their future purchase           respectively
has declined from 65% to 57%. We believe this is due to the minimum down-payment
regulation that has just been introduced (middle of last year).
In terms of property purchase, only 9% of the respondents use financing to purchase their        Mortgage penetration is still
current property. However, 33% of the respondents say they will use financing to purchase        low and there is potential to
their next property, implying there is still growth potential in the mortgage market.            grow
Penetration of credit card still shows an increasing trend—from 10.4% in our previous
survey to 11.1% in this survey.
Percentage of respondents saving through bank accounts increased from 35% in 2011 to
39% in 2012. The percentage of respondents who do not have extra money for saving has
declined from 37% in 2011 to 24% in 2012. They are probably now saving in the form of
cash, as seen by the increase in cash saving from 22% to 30%. This suggests potential for         We observe a decline in
banks to expand their deposit base by tapping into this market.                                   savings as a proportion of
                                                                                                  the respondents’ income.
Overall, our survey shows a decline in respondents’ saving levels as a proportion of their        Outside Java continues to
income, from 12% in 2011 to 10% in 2012. Outside Java respondents exhibit higher level            exhibit higher savings than
of savings than Java respondents; however, their saving levels have been declining (15%           Java respondents
in 2011 vs 12% in 2012) despite their higher income this year.

Figure 83: Percentage of respondents using financing facilities—2012 vs 2011
% of respondents                                  2012                                            2011
Use financing facilities         Total   Urban         Rural   Java Non-Java   Total   Urban        Rural      Java Non-Java
Four wheelers
 Current                           39       40           39     40        38     34       31             42      34         33
 Future                            57       57           61     64        40     49       48             59      54         41
Two wheelers
 Current                           66       69           59     66        67     61       69             47      60         62
 Future                            57       62           47     55        59     65       63             71      69         62
Property
 Current                            9       16            2      9        12      8       10              7       9          7
 Future                            33       38           17     31        37     40       45             27      40         40
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 84: Method of savings—2012 vs 2011
                                                  2012                                            2011
% of respondents                 Total   Urban         Rural   Java Non-Java   Total   Urban        Rural      Java Non-Java
Bank account                       39       46           25     39        38     35       45             16      33         38
Life insurance                      3        3            2      3         4      3          4            1       3          1
Cash                               30       24           40     31        27     22       20             25      23         18
Property                            4        5            5      3         9      4          4            4       3          5
No extra money for saving          24       21           29     25        21     37       29             54      38         37
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                              53
                                                                                                                                                                                               25 January 2013



Figure 85: Higher saving level by outside Java people                                                                    Figure 86: Increase penetration of credit card
                                16                                                                            15                                                   11.5
                                                  2012                                         2011                                                                       11.1
                                14                                                     13
                                                                               12                                                                                   11
                                                                    12
                                12                                                                     11
Saving (as % of total income)




                                             11




                                                                                                                            Average spending via credit card (%)
                                     10                      10                                                                                                                  10.4
                                                                                                                                                                   10.5
                                10
                                                      8                                         9
                                8                                                                                                                                   10

                                6
                                                                                                                                                                    9.5                         9.4
                                4
                                                                                                                                                                     9
                                2

                                -                                                                                                                                   8.5
                                     Total

                                             Urban

                                                     Rural

                                                             Java

                                                                    Non-Java

                                                                               Total

                                                                                       Urban

                                                                                               Rural

                                                                                                       Java

                                                                                                              Non-Java
                                                                                                                                                                     8
                                                                                                                                                                          2012   2011           2010

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                     Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Key stocks
In the banking sector, we continue to like Bank Central Asia (BBCA.JK, OUTPERFORM,                                                                                               We like BBCA and BMRI as
TP Rp11,000.00) and Bank Mandiri (BMRI.JK, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp11,000.00).                                                                                                          potential beneficiaries of
Indonesia’s loan- and deposit-to-GDP ratio remains the lowest in the region, implying the                                                                                        rising banking sector
low penetration of the banking sector. We believe that both BBCA and BMRI are well-                                                                                              penetration in Indonesia
positioned to benefit from the increasing banking sector penetration in Indonesia. These
two banks lead in terms of market share of loans, deposits and CASA compared to other
banks in the country.
Consumer loans account for 28% and 14% of BBCA’s and BMRI’s total loans, respectively.
BBCA continues to focus on the mortgage sector; its mortgage loans are one of the most
preferred by customers due to its low and competitive rates. Our survey found that
mortgage penetration in Indonesia is only 9%. Given this low penetration, we believe there
is significant potential for BBCA to grow in this mortgage market. BMRI also has 5%
exposure of its loan book to micro loans, which have been growing rapidly. Thus, BMRI
also benefits from the increase in purchasing power in the mass market and the
emergence of middle class in Indonesia.
BBCA remains our top pick in the banking sector as the bank has one of the highest                                                                                               BBCA remains our top pick
growth capacities, supported by its low LDR (68.9%). It also has one of the highest CASA
contributions to total deposits (79.5%), allowing the bank to have one of the lowest CoF
(2.1%) of all Indonesian banks, making it well positioned to deliver above-industry growth,
by offering more competitive pricing to borrowers while at the same time still sustaining
robust NIM (5.1%).




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                                             54
                                 25 January 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013               55
                                 25 January 2013




Key stock selections




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013               56
                                                                                                                                                                 25 January 2013




                                                                                                                                                  Asia Pacific / Indonesia
                                                                                                                                                Automobile Manufacturers




                                                                 Astra International
                                                                 (ASII.JK / ASII IJ)
Rating                       OUTPERFORM*
Price (23 Jan 13, Rp)               7,800.00
Target price (Rp)
Upside/downside (%)
                                   9,400.00¹
                                        20.5                     Attractive option for consumer exposure
Mkt cap (Rp bn)        315,771.7 (US$ 32.8)
Enterprise value (Rp bn)             336,065                     ■ Attractive exposure to the consumer sector. The auto segment
Number of shares (mn)             40,483.55                        contributes 53% of ASII’s FY13E earnings. We believe ASII is an attractive
Free float (%)                          45.2                       option for investors looking for exposure to the Indonesian consumer sector.
52-week price range        8,200.0 - 6,240.0
ADTO - 6M (US$ mn)                      27.0                       Currently, ASII and ASII’s auto implied valuations exhibit the lowest 2013E
                                                                   P/E among all Indonesian consumer-related names under our coverage.
*Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each
analyst's or each team's respective sector.                      ■ Expect recovery in earnings growth. We expect ASII’s net income growth to
¹Target price is for 12 months.                                    recover from 8% in FY12E to 36% in FY13E, versus the historical average of
                                       Research Analysts           25%. Much of the resurgence in earnings growth is supported by our
                                      Teddy Oetomo                 expectation of contribution from Low Cost Green Car (LCGC). We believe the
                                    62 21 2553 7911                Indonesian government will issue a regulation regarding LCGC in 1H13E, and
                       teddy.oetomo@credit-suisse.com
                                                                   given ASII’s solid track record, we expect it to roll out products by 2H13E while
                                Dian Haryokusumo
                                   62 21 255 37974
                                                                   its competitor should only be able to do so by end-FY13E/early-FY14E. Thus,
                 dian.haryokusumo@credit-suisse.com                we expect Astra to capture 100% LCGC market share in FY13E.
                                                                 ■ Attractive entry point. ASII has underperformed the JCI by 5% in the past
                                                                   three months and by 13% in the past 12 months. Much of the
                                                                   underperformance in ASII’s share price has been due to the drag from its
                                                                   commodity segment: from AALI (CPO sector) and UNTR (mining contracting
                                                                   sector). We believe the heavy machinery sales of UNTR bottomed in FY12,
                                                                   and we expect improvement in sentiment on UNTR and, in turn, on ASII. ASII
                                                                   is trading at 11.9x 12-month forward P/E, down from the peak of 16.4x at
                                                                   January 2012. Similarly, ASII’s auto implied P/E is currently at 12.7x 12-month
                                                                   forward P/E, versus the historical peak of 17.8x in July 2011.
                                                                 ■ Maintain OUTPERFORM. We maintain our target price of Rp9,400, based
                                                                   on SOTP, implying 14.6x 2013E P/E. At the current price, Astra’s auto
                                                                   division trades at 11.4x forward P/E versus a historical peak of 17.8x.



Share price performance                                          Financial and valuation metrics
                                                                 Year                                             12/11A             12/12E           12/13E            12/14E
                Price (LHS)        Rebased Rel (RHS)             Revenue (Rp bn)                                162,564.0          189,173.2        219,878.4         250,855.6
 10000                                                   140     EBITDA (Rp bn)                                  23,228.0           26,807.9         35,181.4          41,426.4
  8000                                                   120     EBIT (Rp bn)                                    17,832.0           19,832.9         25,636.4          29,972.3
  6000                                                   100     Net profit (Rp bn)                              17,785.0           19,124.9         25,983.4          30,456.9
  4000                                                   80
                                                                 EPS (CS adj.) (Rp)                                439.31            472.41           641.83            752.33
     Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12                   Change from previous EPS (%)                         n.a.                  0                0                 0
                                                                 Consensus EPS (Rp)                                   n.a.               473              539               615
The price relative chart measures performance against the JSX
                                                                 EPS growth (%)                                      23.8                 7.5            35.9              17.2
COMPOSITE INDEX which closed at 4418.73 on 23/01/13
On 23/01/13 the spot exchange rate was Rp9630./US$1
                                                                 P/E (x)                                             17.8               16.5             12.2              10.4
                                                                 Dividend yield (%)                                    2.6                3.4              3.6               4.9
                                                                 EV/EBITDA (x)                                       15.0               12.5               9.7               8.2
Performance Over                    1M          3M        12M
                                                                 P/B (x)                                               5.2                4.6              3.7               3.2
Absolute (%)                        4.0        -1.9       -0.8
                                                                 ROE (%)                                             32.4               29.5             33.9              33.1
Relative (%)                        0.0        -3.7      -11.4
                                                                 Net debt/equity (%)                                 42.0               23.5             24.3              21.2
                                                                 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates.




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                               57
                                                                                                                                                   25 January 2013




Astra International ASII.JK / ASII IJ
Price (23 Jan 13): Rp7,800.00, Rating: OUTPERFORM, Target Price: Rp9,400.00, Analyst: Teddy Oetomo
 Target price                                                                               Key earnings drivers         12/11A        12/12E 12/13E              12/14E
scenario                                                                                   LCGC sales volume                 —             — 166,760             273,086
Scenario                     TP    %Up/Dwn Assumptions                                     Conversion from sport 2W          —             —    0.20                0.20
Upside                 12,700.00      62.82 FY13E ASII LCGC sales volume 550,000 units     Real GDP growth                   —             —    0.06                0.06
Central Case            9,400.00      20.51 FY13E ASII LCGC sales volume 166,760 units     Policy rate                       —             —    0.07                0.06
Downside                7,800.00           0 FY13E ASII LCGC sales volume 58,520 units                                       —             —      —                   —
 Income statement (Rp bn)                12/11A        12/12E       12/13E       12/14E     Per share data               12/11A        12/12E       12/13E       12/14E
Sales revenue                           162,564      189,173       219,878      250,856    Shares (wtd avg.) (mn)        40,484        40,484       40,484       40,484
Cost of goods sold                      130,530      153,522       176,702      201,719    EPS (Credit Suisse) (Rp)         439           472          642          752
SG&A                                      14,202       15,818        17,540       19,165   DPS (Rp)                         202           264          283          385
Other operating exp./(inc.)               (5,396)      (6,975)      (9,545)     (11,454)   BVPS (Rp)                      1,493         1,707        2,083        2,461
EBITDA                                    23,228       26,808        35,181       41,426   Operating CFPS (Rp)              230           506          552          677
Depreciation & amortisation                 5,396        6,975        9,545       11,454    Key ratios and               12/11A        12/12E       12/13E       12/14E
EBIT                                      17,832       19,833        25,636       29,972   valuation
Net interest expense/(inc.)                  14.0      (256.8)      (278.2)      (342.8)   Growth(%)
Non-operating inc./(exp.)                   7,954        7,379       10,795       12,872   Sales revenue                      26.0          16.4          16.2      14.1
Associates/JV                                  —            —            —             —   EBIT                               21.1          11.2          29.3      16.9
Recurring PBT                             25,772       27,469        36,710       43,188   Net profit                         23.8           7.5          35.9      17.2
Exceptionals/extraordinaries                   —            —            —             —   EPS                                23.8           7.5          35.9      17.2
Taxes                                       4,695        5,004        6,688        7,868   Margins (%)
Profit after tax                          21,077       22,465        30,022       35,320   EBITDA                             14.3          14.2          16.0      16.5
Other after tax income                         —            —            —             —   EBIT                               11.0          10.5          11.7      11.9
Minority interests                          3,292        3,340        4,039        4,863   Pre-tax profit                     15.9          14.5          16.7      17.2
Preferred dividends                            —            —            —             —   Net profit                         10.9          10.1          11.8      12.1
Reported net profit                       17,785       19,125        25,983       30,457   Valuation metrics (x)
Analyst adjustments                            —            —            —             —   P/E                                17.8          16.5          12.2      10.4
Net profit (Credit Suisse)                17,785       19,125        25,983       30,457   P/B                                5.22          4.57          3.74      3.17
 Cash flow (Rp bn)                       12/11A        12/12E       12/13E       12/14E    Dividend yield (%)                 2.59          3.38          3.63      4.94
EBIT                                      17,832       19,833        25,636       29,972   P/CF                               33.8          15.4          14.1      11.5
Net interest                                   —            —            —             —   EV/sales                           2.14          1.78          1.55      1.36
Tax paid                                       —            —            —             —   EV/EBITDA                          15.0          12.5           9.7       8.2
Working capital                           (9,674)      (2,810)      (9,907)     (10,955)   EV/EBIT                            19.5          16.9          13.3      11.4
Other cash & non-cash items                 1,172        3,477        6,631        8,401   ROE analysis (%)
Operating cash flow                         9,330      20,500        22,361       27,419   ROE                                32.4          29.5          33.9      33.1
Capex                                   (13,381)     (15,080)      (17,626)     (19,121)   ROIC                               15.3          15.1          17.8      17.7
Free cash flow to the firm                (4,051)        5,420        4,735        8,298   Asset turnover (x)                 1.06          1.11          1.10      1.08
Disposals of fixed assets                      —            —            —             —   Interest burden (x)                1.45          1.39          1.43      1.44
Acquisitions                                   —            —            —             —   Tax burden (x)                     0.82          0.82          0.82      0.82
Divestments                                    —            —            —             —   Financial leverage (x)             2.02          1.97          1.92      1.90
Associate investments                          —            —            —             —   Credit ratios
Other investment/(outflows)                 4,704      15,299       (2,327)        2,511   Net debt/equity (%)                42.0          23.5          24.3      21.2
Investing cash flow                       (8,677)          218     (19,952)     (16,609)   Net debt/EBITDA (x)                1.37          0.76          0.72      0.63
Equity raised                               242.0        221.5        685.8        447.4   Interest cover (x)                1,274          (77)          (92)      (87)
Dividends paid                            (8,191)    (10,671)      (11,475)     (15,590)
Net borrowings                            20,873         2,297       10,520       10,800   Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates.
Other financing cash flow                 (7,542)           —            —             —
Financing cash flow                         5,382      (8,153)        (269)      (4,343)                              12MF P/E multiple
Total cash flow                             6,035      12,566         2,139        6,467     20
Adjustments                                  71.0           —            —             —     18
Net change in cash                          6,106      12,566         2,139        6,467     16
 Balance sheet (Rp bn)                   12/11A        12/12E       12/13E       12/14E      14
                                                                                             12
Cash & cash equivalents                   13,111       25,677        27,816       34,283
                                                                                             10
Current receivables                       15,083       17,125        19,869       22,860
                                                                                              8
Inventories                               11,990       12,995        14,936       17,056
                                                                                              6
Other current assets                      25,794       28,733        34,319       40,584
                                                                                              4
Current assets                            65,978       84,530        96,940     114,782       2
Property, plant & equip.                  32,600       37,915        42,735       46,865      0
Investments                               16,997       17,410        19,533       22,083       2008       2009        2010           2011          2012          2013
Intangibles                                    —            —            —             —
Other non-current assets                  37,946       29,858        41,001       48,017
Total assets                            153,521      169,714       200,209      231,747
                                                                                                                     12MF P/B multiple
Accounts payable                          15,542       16,931        19,340       22,201
                                                                                             5.0
Short-term debt                           21,040       26,765        30,993       34,989
                                                                                             4.5
Current provisions                          196.0        268.8        322.7        384.0
                                                                                             4.0
Other current liabilities                 11,593       15,352        17,670       20,172
                                                                                             3.5
Current liabilities                       48,371       59,316        68,326       77,746     3.0
Long-term debt                            23,950       19,206        22,142       25,202     2.5
Non-current provisions                      1,718        1,989        2,388        2,842     2.0
Other non-current liab.                     3,644        2,838        3,298        3,763     1.5
Total liabilities                         77,683       83,349        96,154     109,552      1.0
Shareholders' equity                      60,449       69,124        84,319       99,633     0.5
Minority interests                        15,389       17,240        19,736       22,562     0.0
Total liabilities & equity              153,521      169,714       200,209      231,747         2008      2009        2010           2011          2012          2013


                                                                                           Source: IBES




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                      58
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                                                                                                                                               Asia Pacific / Indonesia
                                                                                                                                                     Packaged Foods




                                                                 Indofood CBP
                                                                 (ICBP.JK / ICBP IJ)
Rating                        OUTPERFORM
Price (23 Jan 13, Rp)               8,050.00
Target price (Rp)                  8,100.00¹
Upside/downside (%)                     0.62                     Strengthening its position as the largest food
Mkt cap (Rp bn)
Enterprise value (Rp bn)
                         46,939.2 (US$ 4.9)
                                      41,616                     producer
Number of shares (mn)               5,830.95
Free float (%)                          19.4                     ■ Noodle is its major contributor and continues to provide healthy
52-week price range        8,200.0 - 5,000.0                       profitability. We expect Noodle volume growth at a modest 5% this year,
ADTO - 6M (US$ mn)                       2.3
                                                                   after an 11% increase last year, which was due to the lower-end product
*Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each       (Sarimi Mie Duo—two noodle blocks in one packet) lowering ASP. We
analyst's or each team's respective sector.                        expect a 2% ASP increase this year, after no increase last year due to
¹Target price is for 12 months.
                                                                   product mix. The company’s launch of beef-based noodle (Mie Goreng
                                        Research Analyst           Rendang) is being well received by the consumer—it recently launched a
                                       Ella Nusantoro              new product, Mie Goreng Cabe Ijo. We expect Noodle to account for 64%
                                     62 21 255 37917
                                                                   revenue and 79% of operating profit, and with operating margin at 16.5% in
                      ella.nusantoro@credit-suisse.com
                                                                   FY13.
                                                                 ■ Dairy expansion to come on stream. In FY13E, dairy should be its second
                                                                   largest contributor, accounting for 20% of revenue and 12% of operating profit
                                                                   with margin at 8%. The completion of its new factory should boost volume this
                                                                   year—we expect sales volume to surge 18% YoY, on 3% ASP increase.
                                                                 ■ New JVs to expand product portfolio. Last year, the company signed
                                                                   MoUs to set up separate JVs with Asahi (to manufacture and market non-
                                                                   alcoholic beverage) and Tsukishima Foods Industry (to manufacture and
                                                                   market a variety of margarines). Although details on the JVs are not yet
                                                                   available, we believe this is positive and will strengthen its position as
                                                                   Indonesia’s largest food producer.
                                                                 ■ Maintain OUTPERFORM. We continue to like Indofood CBP in the
                                                                   consumer space, with undemanding valuation compared to peers. Our
                                                                   SOTP-based target price at Rp8,100, implies 18.6x 2013E P/E with 14%
                                                                   estimated earnings growth over the next two years.


Share price performance                                          Financial and valuation metrics
                                                                 Year                                             12/11A            12/12E        12/13E            12/14E
                Price (LHS)        Rebased Rel (RHS)             Revenue (Rp bn)                                 19,367.2          22,102.2      24,664.9          27,396.5
 10000                                                   160     EBITDA (Rp bn)                                   2,997.8           3,391.7       3,865.5           4,274.9
                                                         140
  8000                                                           EBIT (Rp bn)                                     2,608.0           2,890.8       3,331.6           3,703.7
                                                         120
  6000                                                           Net profit (Rp bn)                               1,975.3           2,185.0       2,546.0           2,856.0
                                                         100
  4000                                                   80
                                                                 EPS (CS adj.) (Rp)                                338.77           374.72        436.63            489.81
     Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12                   Change from previous EPS (%)                         n.a.                 0             0                 0
                                                                 Consensus EPS (Rp)                                   n.a.              392           438               484
The price relative chart measures performance against the JSX
                                                                 EPS growth (%)                                       -1.5             10.6          16.5              12.2
COMPOSITE INDEX which closed at 4418.73 on 23/01/13
On 23/01/13 the spot exchange rate was Rp9630./US$1
                                                                 P/E (x)                                             23.8              21.5          18.4              16.4
                                                                 Dividend yield (%)                                    1.4               2.1           2.3               2.7
                                                                 EV/EBITDA (x)                                       14.4              12.3          10.4                9.0
Performance Over                    1M         3M         12M
                                                                 P/B (x)                                               4.6               4.1           3.6               3.2
Absolute (%)                         —        11.0        59.4
                                                                 ROE (%)                                             20.6              20.2          21.0              20.9
Relative (%)                       -4.0        9.2        48.8
                                                                 Net debt/equity (%)                             net cash          net cash      net cash          net cash
                                                                 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates.




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                           59
                                                                                                                                                           25 January 2013




Indofood CBP ICBP.JK / ICBP IJ
Price (23 Jan 13): Rp8,050.00, Rating: OUTPERFORM, Target Price: Rp8,100.00, Analyst: Ella Nusantoro
TP scenario                                                                                           Key earnings drivers          12/11A     12/12E      12/13E     12/14E
Scenario                    TP %Up/Dwn Assumptions                                                    GDP growth                       6.50      6.40        5.60       5.60
                                          Based on SOTP with 13E EV/EBITDA target of 13.6x            Average inflation (%)              —         —           —          —
Upside                 8,800.00     9.32 for noodle, 7.9x for dairy, and 11x for food seasonings,     Avg. exchange rate               3.90      5.00        7.00       7.00
                                          snack foods, and nutrition and special foods                CPO price (MYR/tonne)          8,799      9,384       9,724      9,797
                                          Based on SOTP with 13E EV/EBITDA target of 12.4x            Wheat flour price              3,200      3,300       3,300      3,000
Central Case           8,100.00     0.62 for noodle, 7.2x for dairy, and 10x for food seasonings,
                                          snack foods, and nutrition and special foods
                                          Based on SOTP with 13E EV/EBITDA target of 11.2x
Downside               7,400.00   (8.07) for noodle, 6.5x for dairy, and 9x for food seasonings,
                                          snack foods, and nutrition and special foods
 Income statement (Rp bn)               12/11A           12/12E            12/13E          12/14E      Per share data               12/11A     12/12E      12/13E     12/14E
Sales revenue                            19,367           22,102           24,665          27,397     Shares (wtd avg.) (mn)         5,831      5,831       5,831      5,831
Cost of goods sold                       14,336           16,315           18,091          20,052     EPS (Credit Suisse) (Rp)         339        375         437        490
SG&A                                       2,423           2,897             3,242           3,641    DPS (Rp)                         116        169         187        218
Other operating exp./(inc.)              (389.8)         (501.0)           (533.8)         (571.2)    BVPS (Rp)                      1,752      1,957       2,206      2,478
EBITDA                                     2,998           3,392             3,865           4,275    Operating CFPS (Rp)              378        461         528        588
Depreciation & amortisation                389.8           501.0             533.8           571.2     Key ratios and               12/11A     12/12E      12/13E     12/14E
EBIT                                       2,608           2,891             3,332           3,704    valuation
Net interest expense/(inc.)              (136.9)         (157.3)           (220.0)         (280.5)    Growth(%)
Non-operating inc./(exp.)                      —               —                  —              —    Sales revenue                      7.8        14.1     11.6        11.1
Associates/JV                                  —               —                  —              —    EBIT                               3.0        10.8     15.3        11.2
Recurring PBT                              2,745           3,048             3,552           3,984    Net profit                       15.9         10.6     16.5        12.2
Exceptionals/extraordinaries                   —               —                  —              —    EPS                              (1.5)        10.6     16.5        12.2
Taxes                                      678.5           762.0             887.9           996.0    Margins (%)
Profit after tax                           2,066           2,286             2,664           2,988    EBITDA                           15.5         15.3     15.7        15.6
Other after tax income                         —               —                  —              —    EBIT                             13.5         13.1     13.5        13.5
Minority interests                           91.0          101.1             117.8           132.1    Pre-tax profit                   14.2         13.8     14.4        14.5
Preferred dividends                            —               —                  —              —    Net profit                       10.2          9.9     10.3        10.4
Reported net profit                        1,975           2,185             2,546           2,856    Valuation metrics (x)
Analyst adjustments                            —               —                  —              —    P/E                              23.8         21.5     18.4        16.4
Net profit (Credit Suisse)                 1,975           2,185             2,546           2,856    P/B                              4.59         4.11     3.65        3.25
 Cash flow (Rp bn)                      12/11A           12/12E            12/13E          12/14E     Dividend yield (%)               1.44         2.10     2.33        2.71
EBIT                                       2,608           2,891             3,332           3,704    P/CF                             21.3         17.5     15.2        13.7
Net interest                               136.9           157.3             220.0           280.5    EV/sales                         2.23         1.88     1.63        1.41
Tax paid                                 (678.5)         (762.0)           (887.9)         (996.0)    EV/EBITDA                        14.4         12.3     10.4         9.0
Working capital                          (387.5)         (104.9)           (291.7)         (190.6)    EV/EBIT                          16.6         14.4     12.1        10.4
Other cash & non-cash items                523.5           504.8             707.7           629.7    ROE analysis (%)
Operating cash flow                        2,202           2,686             3,080           3,427    ROE                              20.6         20.2     21.0        20.9
Capex                                    (226.9)         (613.7)           (700.9)         (793.3)    ROIC                             29.1         31.6     37.0        40.3
Free cash flow to the firm                 1,975           2,072             2,379           2,634    Asset turnover (x)               1.27         1.31     1.30        1.30
Disposals of fixed assets                      —               —                  —              —    Interest burden (x)              1.05         1.05     1.07        1.08
Acquisitions                                   —               —                  —              —    Tax burden (x)                   0.75         0.75     0.75        0.75
Divestments                                    —               —                  —              —    Financial leverage (x)           1.42         1.41     1.39        1.38
Associate investments                          —               —                  —              —    Credit ratios
Other investment/(outflows)              (401.2)             55.3          (128.5)           (30.8)   Net debt/equity (%)            (34.2)     (44.3)      (49.6)      (54.6)
Investing cash flow                      (628.1)         (558.4)           (829.5)         (824.1)    Net debt/EBITDA (x)            (1.22)     (1.57)      (1.74)      (1.95)
Equity raised                                  —               —                  —              —    Interest cover (x)             (19.0)     (18.4)      (15.1)      (13.2)
Dividends paid                              (676)           (988)          (1,092)         (1,273)    Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates.
Net borrowings                             (75.2)              —                  —              —
                                                                                                                                 12MF P/E multiple
Other financing cash flow                  188.1           450.2             255.3           278.2
                                                                                                        25
Financing cash flow                      (563.3)         (537.5)           (837.2)         (994.8)
Total cash flow                            1,011           1,590             1,413           1,608
                                                                                                        20
Adjustments                                    —               —                  —              —
Net change in cash                         1,011           1,590             1,413           1,608      15
 Balance sheet (Rp bn)                  12/11A           12/12E            12/13E          12/14E
Cash & cash equivalents                    4,421           6,011             7,424           9,032      10
Current receivables                        2,378           2,604             2,967           3,262
Inventories                                1,630           1,822             2,038           2,249       5
Other current assets                       151.4           170.3             188.1           207.0
Current assets                             8,580          10,607           12,618          14,750        0
                                                                                                         Oct-10      Apr-11       Oct-11       Apr-12        Oct-12
Property, plant & equip.                   2,590           2,417             2,584           2,807
Investments                                  83.2            87.4             91.7             96.3
Intangibles                                3,622           3,409             3,196           2,982
Other non-current assets                   346.8           395.8             441.7           490.6                              12MF P/B multiple
Total assets                             15,223           16,916           18,931          21,126       4.0
Accounts payable                           1,429           1,637             1,810           2,009      3.5
Short-term debt                            424.1           407.2             407.2           407.2      3.0
Current provisions                             —               —                  —              —      2.5
Other current liabilities                  1,135           1,048             1,182           1,316      2.0
Current liabilities                        2,989           3,092             3,398           3,732
                                                                                                        1.5
Long-term debt                             145.5           298.0             298.0           298.0
                                                                                                        1.0
Non-current provisions                         —               —                  —              —
Other non-current liab.                    1,379           1,522             1,660           1,806      0.5

Total liabilities                          4,513           4,913             5,356           5,836      0.0
                                                                                                          Oct-10      Apr-11      Oct-11       Apr-12        Oct-12
Shareholders' equity                     10,217           11,410           12,863          14,446
Minority interests                         492.9           594.0             711.8           843.9
Total liabilities & equity               15,223           16,916           18,931          21,126     Source: IBES




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                           60
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                                                                                                                                               Asia Pacific / Indonesia
                                                                                                                                                           Distributors




                                                                 Erajaya Swasembada Tbk
                                                                 (ERAA.JK / ERAA IJ)
Rating                         OUTPERFORM
Price (23 Jan 13, Rp)                2,775.00
Target price (Rp)                   3,300.00¹
Upside/downside (%)                      18.9                    Beneficiary of rising income
Mkt cap (Rp bn)          8,047.50 (US$ 0.84)
Enterprise value (Rp bn)                8,523                    ■ Beneficiary of rising income. The government’s decision to increase
Number of shares (mn)                2,900.00                      minimum wages should benefit Erajaya, in our view. The company’s
Free float (%)                           39.7
52-week price range         2,950.0 - 1,150.0                      extensive distribution network and brand portfolio enables it to penetrate the
ADTO - 6M (US$ mn)                        1.9                      rise in consumers’ purchasing power. Moreover, the majority of its revenue
                                                                   (69%) is from Jabodetabek and Kalimantan, which have seen the highest
*Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each
analyst's or each team's respective sector.
                                                                   average minimum wage increase compared with the other provinces. In
¹Target price is for 12 months.                                    addition to distribution to third party, Erajaya operates 399 stores in
                                                                   Indonesia, which contribute less than 30% of its revenue.
                                           Research Analyst
                                       Ella Nusantoro            ■ New handset import regulation to be effective by end-March. The new
                                     62 21 255 37917
                                                                   handset import regulation requires each handset to be registered before it
                      ella.nusantoro@credit-suisse.com
                                                                   can be sold (used) in Indonesia. This is part of the government’s effort to
                                                                   reduce illegal import of handsets, which are estimated to be around 30% of
                                                                   the industry. We believe this should also benefit Erajaya.
                                                                 ■ Forex risks will be borne by the retail customers. As the company
                                                                   imports its handsets directly from the principals, with the exception of
                                                                   Samsung (priced in rupiah), it carries forex risks. Management indicate that it
                                                                   normally takes about one-two weeks for the company to pass on any cost to
                                                                   customers that arise from the need to pay the principal more in case of
                                                                   rupiah depreciation.
                                                                 ■ Maintain OUTPERFORM. Our target price of Rp3,300 equates to 15x
                                                                   2013E P/E with 43% estimated earnings growth. This is implying JCI’s target
                                                                   multiple of 4,800. Compared to Indonesia’s other consumer and retailer
                                                                   stocks, Erajaya trades at an undemanding valuation with higher growth,
                                                                   making it an attractive choice in the space.


Share price performance                                          Financial and valuation metrics
                                                                 Year                                              12/11A           12/12E        12/13E            12/14E
                Price (LHS)        Rebased Rel (RHS)             Revenue (Rp bn)                                   6,899.5         12,993.2      17,064.5          19,094.8
 4000                                                    400     EBITDA (Rp bn)                                      415.0            657.1         884.2             997.1
 3000                                                    300
                                                                 EBIT (Rp bn)                                        385.0            633.2         855.8             964.1
 2000                                                    200
                                                                 Net profit (Rp bn)                                  255.4            444.9         637.4             719.6
 1000                                                    100
    0                                                    0
                                                                 EPS (CS adj.) (Rp)                                  88.07          153.41        219.80            248.13
    Dec-11         Apr-12         Aug-12        Dec-12           Change from previous EPS (%)                          n.a.                0             0                 0
                                                                 Consensus EPS (Rp)                                    n.a.             154           222               279
The price relative chart measures performance against the JSX
                                                                 EPS growth (%)                                       17.3             74.2          43.3              12.9
COMPOSITE INDEX which closed at 4418.73 on 23/01/13
On 23/01/13 the spot exchange rate was Rp9630./US$1
                                                                 P/E (x)                                              31.5             18.1          12.6              11.2
                                                                 Dividend yield (%)                                       0                0           2.8               4.0
                                                                 EV/EBITDA (x)                                        20.3             13.0            9.9               8.7
Performance Over                    1M         3M         12M
                                                                 P/B (x)                                                3.8              3.1           2.7               2.4
Absolute (%)                        2.8       18.1       141.3
                                                                 ROE (%)                                              16.3             18.9          22.9              22.5
Relative (%)                       -1.2       16.3       130.7
                                                                 Net debt/equity (%)                                  18.1             18.4          23.1              19.8
                                                                 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates.




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                           61
                                                                                                                                                    25 January 2013




Erajaya Swasembada Tbk ERAA.JK / ERAA IJ
Price (23 Jan 13): Rp2,775.00, Rating: OUTPERFORM, Target Price: Rp3,300.00, Analyst: Ella Nusantoro
Target price scenario                                                                        Key earnings drivers              12/11A    12/12E     12/13E         12/14E
Scenario                        TP    %Up/Dwn Assumptions                                   Real GDP growth (%)                   6.50     6.40       5.60           5.60
                            1,700.0                                                         Inflation average (%)                 5.40     4.50       6.20           6.20
Upside                                  (38.74) Increase in regional peers P/E              Sales volume growth (%)                4.7     50.8         6.6            6.7
                                  0
                            3,300.0                                                         ASP growth (%)                        37.4     14.7         1.2            2.6
Central Case                             18.92 Regional peers P/E                           Average exchange rate               8,799     9,384      9,749          9,846
                                  0
                            1,400.0
Downside                                (49.55) Decrease in regional peers P/E
                                  0
 Income statement (Rp bn)               12/11A        12/12E         12/13E      12/14E      Per share data                    12/11A    12/12E     12/13E         12/14E
Sales revenue                             6,900       12,993         17,064      19,095     Shares (wtd avg.) (mn)              2,900     2,900      2,900          2,900
Cost of goods sold                        6,151       11,824         15,520      17,367     EPS (Credit Suisse) (Rp)                88      153        220            248
SG&A                                      356.3         579.4          688.6       763.9    DPS (Rp)                                —        —          77            110
Other operating exp./(inc.)              (22.4)        (67.2)         (28.4)      (32.9)    BVPS (Rp)                              736      889      1,032          1,170
EBITDA                                    415.0         657.1          884.2       997.1    Operating CFPS (Rp)                  (177)       51         34            151
Depreciation & amortisation                29.9          23.9           28.4        32.9     Key ratios and                    12/11A    12/12E     12/13E         12/14E
EBIT                                      385.0         633.2          855.8       964.1    valuation
Net interest expense/(inc.)                33.3          44.2           58.2        63.8    Growth(%)
Non-operating inc./(exp.)                    1.3           4.7             —           —    Sales revenue                        48.7        88.3        31.3            11.9
Associates/JV                                 —             —              —           —    EBIT                                 31.1        64.5        35.1            12.7
Recurring PBT                             353.0         593.8          797.5       900.3    Net profit                           17.3        74.2        43.3            12.9
Exceptionals/extraordinaries                  —             —              —           —    EPS                                  17.3        74.2        43.3            12.9
Taxes                                      96.7         148.4          159.5       180.1    Margins (%)
Profit after tax                          256.3         445.3          638.0       720.3    EBITDA                               6.01        5.06        5.18            5.22
Other after tax income                        —             —              —           —    EBIT                                 5.58        4.87        5.01            5.05
Minority interests                         0.91          0.45           0.61        0.68    Pre-tax profit                       5.12        4.57        4.67            4.72
Preferred dividends                           —             —              —           —    Net profit                           3.70        3.42        3.74            3.77
Reported net profit                       255.4         444.9          637.4       719.6    Valuation metrics (x)
Analyst adjustments                           —             —              —           —    P/E                                   31.5       18.1        12.6            11.2
Net profit (Credit Suisse)                255.4         444.9          637.4       719.6    P/B                                   3.77       3.12        2.69            2.37
 Cash flow (Rp bn)                      12/11A        12/12E         12/13E      12/14E     Dividend yield (%)                      —          —         2.76            3.96
EBIT                                      385.0         633.2          855.8       964.1    P/CF                                (15.7)       54.6        81.2            18.3
Net interest                             (33.3)        (44.2)         (58.2)      (63.8)    EV/sales                              1.22       0.66        0.51            0.46
Tax paid                                 (96.7)       (148.4)        (159.5)     (180.1)    EV/EBITDA                             20.3       13.0         9.9             8.7
Working capital                         (790.4)       (364.5)        (566.8)     (313.8)    EV/EBIT                               21.9       13.5        10.2             9.0
Other cash & non-cash items                22.8          71.4           27.8        32.2    ROE analysis (%)
Operating cash flow                     (512.6)         147.5           99.1       438.7    ROE                                  16.3        18.9        22.9            22.5
Capex                                    (80.3)        (99.0)         (90.0)      (90.0)    ROIC                                 15.2        17.0        20.2            19.8
Free cash flow to the firm              (592.9)          48.6             9.1      348.7    Asset turnover (x)                   2.36        3.37        3.79            3.83
Disposals of fixed assets                     —             —              —           —    Interest burden (x)                  0.92        0.94        0.93            0.93
Acquisitions                                  —             —              —           —    Tax burden (x)                       0.73        0.75        0.80            0.80
Divestments                                   —             —              —           —    Financial leverage (x)               1.36        1.49        1.50            1.46
Associate investments                         —             —              —           —    Credit ratios
Other investment/(outflows)             (545.6)        (56.1)         (16.2)      (20.6)    Net debt/equity (%)                  18.1        18.4        23.1            19.8
Investing cash flow                     (625.9)       (155.1)        (106.2)     (110.6)    Net debt/EBITDA (x)                  0.93        0.72        0.79            0.68
Equity raised                             950.0             —              —           —    Interest cover (x)                   11.6        14.3        14.7            15.1
Dividends paid                                —             —        (222.4)     (318.7)    Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates.
Net borrowings                            290.0         277.0           77.3          6.0
Other financing cash flow                    5.6         (0.3)             —           —                               12MF P/E multiple
Financing cash flow                       1,246           277          (145)       (313)      16
Total cash flow                           107.2         269.2        (152.3)        15.5      14
Adjustments                                   —             —              —           —
                                                                                              12
Net change in cash                        107.2         269.2        (152.3)        15.5
                                                                                              10
 Balance sheet (Rp bn)                  12/11A        12/12E         12/13E      12/14E
                                                                                               8
Cash & cash equivalents                    71.3         256.2          109.6       130.8
Current receivables                       1,024         1,302          1,629       1,822       6
Inventories                                 790           910          1,194       1,336       4
Other current assets                      322.0         363.4          477.2       534.0       2
Current assets                            2,208         2,831          3,409       3,823       0
Property, plant & equip.                  108.9         198.9          275.4       347.5       Mar-12      May-12     Jul-12        Sep-12      Nov-12      Jan-13
Investments                                  6.1           6.1            6.1         6.1
Intangibles                               495.6         649.8          627.6       605.4
Other non-current assets                  110.8         168.5          186.3       208.5
                                                                                                                      12MF P/B multiple
Total assets                              2,930         3,854          4,505       4,990
                                                                                              3.0
Accounts payable                          223.2         356.0          467.5       523.1
Short-term debt                           456.7         728.9          801.2       801.2      2.5
Current provisions                            —             —              —           —
Other current liabilities                  78.9         148.6          195.2       218.4      2.0
Current liabilities                         759         1,233          1,464       1,543      1.5
Long-term debt                               2.4           3.1            3.1         3.1
Non-current provisions                        —             —              —           —      1.0
Other non-current liab.                    20.9          25.1           30.2        36.2
                                                                                              0.5
Total liabilities                           782         1,262          1,497       1,582
Shareholders' equity                      2,133         2,578          2,993       3,394      0.0
Minority interests                           5.3           5.6            5.6         5.6       Mar-12     May-12     Jul-12        Sep-12      Nov-12          Jan-13
Total liabilities & equity                2,930         3,854          4,505       4,990
                                                                                            Source: IBES




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                           62
                                                                                                                                                              25 January 2013




                                                                                                                                               Asia Pacific / Indonesia
                                                                                                                                              Retailing Conglomerates




                                                                 Mitra Adiperkasa
                                                                 (MAPI.JK / MAPI IJ)
Rating                        OUTPERFORM
Price (23 Jan 13, Rp)               6,400.00
Target price (Rp)                  8,100.00¹
Upside/downside (%)                     26.6                     Strong growth continues
Mkt cap (Rp bn)          10,624.0 (US$ 1.1)
Enterprise value (Rp bn)              11,348                     ■ Specialty stores continue to be the key driver. MAPI is currently
Number of shares (mn)               1,660.00                       managing more than 100 world class brands across its divisions, with more
Free float (%)                          44.0
52-week price range        7,750.0 - 5,250.0                       than half of the revenue contribution coming from speciality stores, followed
ADTO - 6M (US$ mn)                       2.7                       by department stores, and food & beverage. We expect strong SSG to
                                                                   continue, given the rising middle- and high-income segments—MAPI’s target
*Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each
analyst's or each team's respective sector.
                                                                   market—along with the rising Indonesian GDP per capita. MAPI had a
¹Target price is for 12 months.                                    consolidated SSG of 14% as of FY12, with specialty stores posting the
                                                                   strongest SSG at 17%, followed by department stores at 13%, F&B at 9%
                                       Research Analysts
                                                                   and others at 3%. We expect MAPI SSG to reach 13% this year.
                                Dian Haryokusumo
                                   62 21 255 37974
                                                                 ■ Strategic expansion. MAPI pursues a strategy of expanding its specialty
                 dian.haryokusumo@credit-suisse.com
                                                                   stores, this suggests smaller store size but higher margins, which we believe
                                       Ella Nusantoro
                                     62 21 255 37917               will enable the company to penetrate the market better. The company is
                      ella.nusantoro@credit-suisse.com             actively expanding its sports and fashion lines, which contribute 50% and
                                                                   45% of the specialty store segment, respectively. MAPI has also secured
                                                                   most of its expansion plan area, while new players may find it challenging to
                                                                   find strategic locations.
                                                                 ■ Limited and manageable impact on current regulation changes. Recently,
                                                                   GoI issued a revision of the regulation that manages franchise business in
                                                                   Indonesia. Points that may affect MAPI’s business: requirement for a franchise
                                                                   to use/sell minimum 80% local materials, equipment, and limitation of
                                                                   company-owned outlets to a maximum of 150. Only MAPI’s F&B business is
                                                                   under a franchisee agreement, thus the possible impact should be limited. As
                                                                   of 9M12, F&B accounted for 13% of gross sales and 0.4% of operating profit.
                                                                 ■ Maintain OUTPERFORM. We maintain our DCF-based target price at
                                                                   Rp8,100, implying 23x FY13E P/E, or a 0.8x FY13E PEG ratio. We believe
                                                                   the recent regulation changes on franchise business will have a limited and
                                                                   manageable impact on the company’s business, and believe MAPI will
                                                                   continue to post strong growth.
Share price performance                                          Financial and valuation metrics
                                                                 Year                                              12/11A          12/12E          12/13E            12/14E
                Price (LHS)        Rebased Rel (RHS)             Revenue (Rp bn)                                   5,889.8         7,434.9         8,871.4          10,448.0
 8000                                                    400     EBITDA (Rp bn)                                      898.4         1,072.9         1,260.4           1,472.2
                                                         300
 6000                                                            EBIT (Rp bn)                                        622.3           774.8           932.3           1,105.9
                                                         200
 4000                                                            Net profit (Rp bn)                                  360.4           455.7           581.8             721.3
                                                         100
 2000                                                    0
                                                                 EPS (CS adj.) (Rp)                                 217.12         274.53          350.50            434.52
    Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12                    Change from previous EPS (%)                          n.a.               0               0                 0
                                                                 Consensus EPS (Rp)                                    n.a.            267             342               423
The price relative chart measures performance against the JSX
                                                                 EPS growth (%)                                       79.3            26.4            27.7              24.0
COMPOSITE INDEX which closed at 4418.73 on 23/01/13
On 23/01/13 the spot exchange rate was Rp9630./US$1
                                                                 P/E (x)                                              29.5            23.3            18.3              14.7
                                                                 Dividend yield (%)                                   0.31            0.59            0.75              0.96
                                                                 EV/EBITDA (x)                                        12.7            10.6              8.9               7.4
Performance Over                    1M          3M        12M
                                                                 P/B (x)                                                5.9             4.8             3.9               3.2
Absolute (%)                         —         -3.0       10.3
                                                                 ROE (%)                                              22.1            22.8            23.8              24.0
Relative (%)                       -4.0        -4.9       -0.3
                                                                 Net debt/equity (%)                                  46.2            32.9            23.1                9.7
                                                                 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates.




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                            63
                                                                                                                                       25 January 2013




Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI.JK / MAPI IJ
Price (23 Jan 13): Rp6,400.00, Rating: OUTPERFORM, Target Price: Rp8,100.00, Analyst: Dian Haryokusumo
Target price scenario                                                           Key earnings drivers          12/11A 12/12E 12/13E                    12/14E
Scenario                       TP   %Up/Dwn Assumptions                         Speciality store - SSG           0.16   0.17    0.15                    0.15
Upside                                                                          Department store - SSG           0.13   0.09    0.10                    0.10
                          8,100.0                                               F&B - SSG                        0.08   0.08    0.10                    0.09
Central Case                           26.56                                    Speciality store - area      150,932 170,932 185,932                 200,932
                                0
Downside                                                                        Department store - area      271,621 301,621 341,621                 371,621
 Income statement (Rp bn)             12/11A     12/12E    12/13E    12/14E      Per share data               12/11A       12/12E       12/13E       12/14E
Sales revenue                           5,890      7,435     8,871   10,448     Shares (wtd avg.) (mn)         1,660        1,660        1,660        1,660
Cost of goods sold                      2,847      3,566     4,294     5,051    EPS (Credit Suisse) (Rp)         217          275          350          435
SG&A                                    2,420      3,094     3,645     4,291    DPS (Rp)                         20.0        38.0         48.0         61.3
Other operating exp./(inc.)           (276.1)    (298.1)   (328.1)   (366.4)    BVPS (Rp)                      1,081        1,323        1,626        1,999
EBITDA                                    898      1,073     1,260     1,472    Operating CFPS (Rp)              541          646          759          887
Depreciation & amortisation             276.1      298.1     328.1     366.4     Key ratios and               12/11A       12/12E       12/13E       12/14E
EBIT                                      622        775       932     1,106    valuation
Net interest expense/(inc.)             115.1       98.9     135.3     127.0    Growth(%)
Non-operating inc./(exp.)              (22.6)     (63.2)    (14.8)      (9.1)   Sales revenue                     25.0          26.2          19.3      17.8
Associates/JV                              —          —         —          —    EBIT                              38.6          24.5          20.3      18.6
Recurring PBT                           484.6      612.7     782.2     969.7    Net profit                        79.3          26.4          27.7      24.0
Exceptionals/extraordinaries               —          —         —          —    EPS                               79.3          26.4          27.7      24.0
Taxes                                   124.1      157.0     200.4     248.4    Margins (%)
Profit after tax                        360.4      455.7     581.8     721.3    EBITDA                            15.3          14.4          14.2      14.1
Other after tax income                     —          —         —          —    EBIT                              10.6          10.4          10.5      10.6
Minority interests                    0.0001     0.0001    0.0001    0.0001     Pre-tax profit                     8.2           8.2           8.8       9.3
Preferred dividends                        —          —         —          —    Net profit                        6.12          6.13          6.56      6.90
Reported net profit                     360.4      455.7     581.8     721.3    Valuation metrics (x)
Analyst adjustments                        —          —         —          —    P/E                               29.5          23.3          18.3      14.7
Net profit (Credit Suisse)              360.4      455.7     581.8     721.3    P/B                               5.92          4.84          3.94      3.20
 Cash flow (Rp bn)                    12/11A     12/12E    12/13E    12/14E     Dividend yield (%)                0.31          0.59          0.75      0.96
EBIT                                      622        775       932     1,106    P/CF                              11.8           9.9           8.4       7.2
Net interest                               —          —         —          —    EV/sales                          1.94          1.53          1.27      1.05
Tax paid                                   —          —         —          —    EV/EBITDA                         12.7          10.6           8.9       7.4
Working capital                            —          —         —          —    EV/EBIT                           18.4          14.6          12.1       9.9
Other cash & non-cash items             276.1      298.1     328.1     366.4    ROE analysis (%)
Operating cash flow                       898      1,073     1,260     1,472    ROE                               22.1          22.8          23.8      24.0
Capex                                 (470.9)    (600.0)   (600.0)   (549.6)    ROIC                              19.2          20.8          22.2      23.6
Free cash flow to the firm              427.5      472.9     660.4     922.6    Asset turnover (x)                1.33          1.34          1.35      1.38
Disposals of fixed assets                  —          —         —          —    Interest burden (x)               0.78          0.79          0.84      0.88
Acquisitions                               —          —         —          —    Tax burden (x)                    0.74          0.74          0.74      0.74
Divestments                                —          —         —          —    Financial leverage (x)            2.46          2.53          2.43      2.28
Associate investments                      —          —         —          —    Credit ratios
Other investment/(outflows)           (153.2)     (18.0)    (16.4)    (19.2)    Net debt/equity (%)               46.2          32.9          23.1       9.7
Investing cash flow                   (624.1)    (618.0)   (616.4)   (568.8)    Net debt/EBITDA (x)               0.92          0.67          0.49      0.22
Equity raised                              —          —         —          —    Interest cover (x)                5.40          7.83          6.89      8.71
Dividends paid                         (33.2)     (63.1)    (79.8)   (101.8)
Net borrowings                          184.6      390.3     150.0         —    Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates.
Other financing cash flow              (65.5)         —         —          —
Financing cash flow                      85.8      327.2      70.2   (101.8)                               12MF P/E multiple
Total cash flow                         360.1      782.1     714.2     801.6      30
Adjustments                                —          —         —          —
                                                                                  25
Net change in cash                      360.1      782.1     714.2     801.6
 Balance sheet (Rp bn)                12/11A     12/12E    12/13E    12/14E       20
Cash & cash equivalents                   289        853     1,104     1,404
                                                                                  15
Current receivables                     194.6      203.7     243.1     286.2
Inventories                             1,378      1,514     1,823     2,145      10
Other current assets                    507.7      611.7     730.1     860.1
Current assets                          2,369      3,183     3,900     4,695       5
Property, plant & equip.                1,487      1,789     2,060     2,244       0
Investments                                —          —         —          —        2008       2009        2010          2011          2012          2013
Intangibles                              58.0       38.7      19.5         —
Other non-current assets                502.0      539.1     574.8     613.5
Total assets                            4,415      5,549     6,555     7,553
                                                                                                          12MF P/B multiple
Accounts payable                          668        752       906     1,066
                                                                                   6
Short-term debt                         985.3      753.6     858.6     858.6
Current provisions                         —          —         —          —       5
Other current liabilities                 625        769       928     1,103
Current liabilities                     2,278      2,275     2,692     3,027       4
Long-term debt                          132.8      823.0     868.0     868.0       3
Non-current provisions                     —          —         —          —
Other non-current liab.                 210.7      254.6     295.5     339.0       2
Total liabilities                       2,621      3,352     3,856     4,234
                                                                                   1
Shareholders' equity                    1,794      2,197     2,699     3,318
Minority interests                       0.01       0.01      0.01      0.01       0
Total liabilities & equity              4,415      5,549     6,555     7,553        2008       2009        2010          2011          2012          2013


                                                                                Source: IBES




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                          64
                                                                                                                                                             25 January 2013




                                                                                                                                               Asia Pacific / Indonesia
                                                                                                                                                      Regional Banks




                                                                 Bank Central Asia
                                                                 (BBCA.JK / BBCA IJ)
Rating                       OUTPERFORM
Price (23 Jan 13, Rp)             9,300.00
Target price (Rp)                   11,000¹
Upside/downside (%)                    18.3                      Fundamentals intact
Mkt cap (Rp bn)       229,291.6 (US$ 23.8)
Number of shares (mn)            24,655.01                       ■ Indonesia’s largest transaction bank. Bank Central Asia (BBCA) is the
Free float (%)                         55.9                        largest transaction bank in Indonesia with over 10 mn customer accounts.
52-week price range       9,500.0 - 6,900.0
ADTO - 6M (US$ mn)                      9.5                        Indonesia’s loan and deposit to GDP ratio remains the lowest in the region,
                                                                   implying the low penetration of the banking sector. As a bank which is widely
*Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each       used for day-to-day transactions, BBCA stands to benefit from the increasing
analyst's or each team's respective sector.
¹Target price is for 12 months.                                    banking sector penetration in Indonesia.

                                        Research Analyst         ■ Catering the Indonesian customers. BBCA’s exposure to consumer loans
                                      Teddy Oetomo                 is 28% out of its total loan book. The bank’s focus on consumer loans
                                    62 21 2553 7911                remains on mortgages. BCA’s mortgage loans are one of the most preferred
                       teddy.oetomo@credit-suisse.com
                                                                   by customers due to its low and competitive rates. With the low mortgage
                                                                   penetration in Indonesia, we believe there is a huge potential for BBCA to
                                                                   grow further in the mortgage market.
                                                                 ■ Strong fundamentals. As of 3Q12, BBCA has one of the lowest LDR
                                                                   (68.9%) in the Indonesian banking system, which implies it has one of the
                                                                   highest growth potential. In addition, BBCA also has one of the highest
                                                                   CASA contributions to total deposits (79.5%), allowing the bank to have one
                                                                   of the lowest CoF (2.1%) among all Indonesian banks. Given its low LDR
                                                                   and low CoF, BBCA is well positioned to deliver above-industry growth,
                                                                   offering more competitive pricing to borrowers, while at the same time
                                                                   sustaining a robust NIM (5.1%).
                                                                 ■ Maintain OUTPERFORM. We believe BBCA exhibits one of the strongest
                                                                   fundamentals among the Indonesian banks under our coverage. We expect
                                                                   BBCA to continue delivering robust ROE (26%). Our target price for BBCA of
                                                                   Rp11,000, based on Gordon’s Growth value, implies 4.6x FY13E P/B and
                                                                   20.6x FY13E P/E.


Share price performance                                          Financial and valuation metrics
                                                                 Year                                             12/11A            12/12E        12/13E            12/14E
                Price (LHS)        Rebased Rel (RHS)             Pre-prov Op profit (Rp bn)                      13,136.1          14,973.1      17,392.7          20,302.6
 10000                                                   140     Pre -tax profit (Rp bn)                         13,618.8          14,749.1      16,483.7          19,152.8
                                                         130
  8000                                                           Net attributable profit (Rp bn)                 10,819.3          11,716.7      13,091.2          15,210.7
                                                         120
  6000                                                           EPS (CS adj.) (Rp)                                440.53           477.06        533.03            619.33
                                                         110
  4000                                                   100
                                                                 Change from previous EPS (%)                         n.a.                 0             0                 0
     Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12                   Consensus EPS (Rp)                                   n.a.              467           545               642
                                                                 EPS growth (%)                                      27.6                8.3         11.7              16.2
The price relative chart measures performance against the JSX
                                                                 P/E (x)                                             21.1              19.5          17.4              15.0
COMPOSITE INDEX which closed at 4418.73 on 23/01/13
On 23/01/13 the spot exchange rate was Rp9630./US$1
                                                                 Dividend yield (%)                                    1.6               1.7           1.9               2.2
                                                                 CS adj. BVPS (Rp)                                1,710.2           2,013.5       2,389.1           2,832.6
                                                                 P/B (x)                                             5.44              4.62          3.89              3.28
Performance Over                    1M         3M         12M
                                                                 ROE (%)                                             28.4              25.6          24.2              23.7
Absolute (%)                        4.5       14.1        14.8
                                                                 ROA (%)                                               3.1               2.9           2.9               2.9
Relative (%)                        0.5       12.3         4.2
                                                                 Tier 1 Ratio (%)                                    12.0              12.2          12.5              13.0
                                                                 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates.




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                           65
                                                                                                                                                       25 January 2013



Bank Central Asia BBCA.JK / BBCA IJ
Price (23 Jan 13): Rp9,300.00, Rating: OUTPERFORM, Target Price: Rp11,000, Analyst: Teddy Oetomo
Target price scenario                                                                         Key earnings drivers          12/11A         12/12E       12/13E       12/14E
Scenario                      TP    %Up/Dwn Assumptions                                      Loans Growth (%)                  31.7          22.5         23.9         21.5
                          13,000.            assuming 30% loan growth and +100bp             Net Interest Margin (%)           5.02          5.14         5.38         5.55
Upside                                 39.78                                                 Fee Growth (%)                    4.95          4.11         3.75         4.52
                              00             increase in NIM
                          11,000.                                                            Cost to Income Ratio (%)          48.6          48.1         47.3         46.3
Central Case                            18.28                                                P&L Provision (as % of          (0.08)          0.25         0.45         0.45
                              00
                          6,000.0                 assuming 5% loan growth and -140bp
Downside                              (35.48)
                                0                 decrease in NIM
 Valuation                             12/11A           12/12E       12/13E        12/14E      Per share data                   12/11A      12/12E      12/13E       12/14E
EPS growth (%)                            27.6              8.3        11.7          16.2     Shares (wtd avg.) (mn)            24,560      24,560      24,560       24,560
P/E (x)                                   21.1            19.5         17.4          15.0     EPS (Credit Suisse) (Rp)          440.53      477.06      533.03       619.33
P/B (x)                                   5.44            4.62         3.89          3.28     BVPS (Rp)                          1,710       2,014       2,389        2,833
P/TB (x)                                  5.44            4.62         3.89          3.28     Tangible BVPS (Rp)                 1,710       2,014       2,389        2,833
Dividend yield (%)                        1.56            1.69         1.89          2.20     DPS (Rp)                             145         157         176          204
 Income statement (Rp bn)              12/11A           12/12E       12/13E        12/14E      Key ratios                       12/11A      12/12E      12/13E       12/14E
Interest income                        24,567           28,052       34,802        40,256     Profitability and margins
Interest expense                        7,730            8,236       11,219        12,295     ROE stated                          28.4          25.6          24.2      23.7
Net interest income                    16,837           19,816       23,583        27,961     ROE - CS adj.                       28.4          25.6          24.2      23.7
Fee and commission income                    —               —            —             —     ROA - CS adj.                       3.06          2.90          2.86      2.89
Trading income                          2,632            2,383        2,322         2,322     Gearing (x)                          9.3           8.8           8.5       8.2
Insurance income (& premiums)                —               —            —             —     Asset quality (%)
Other income                            6,066            6,673        7,073         7,498     NPL/ gross loans                    0.63          0.63          0.63      0.63
Total non-interest income               8,699            9,056        9,395         9,820     B/S loan loss coverage              255           210           202       200
Total income                           25,535           28,872       32,978        37,781     Loan/ deposit ratio                 63.2          68.3          73.7      78.5
Personal expense                        5,035            5,639        6,315         7,073     Capital ratios (%)
Other expenses                          7,365            8,260        9,270        10,405     Capital adequacy ratio              13.3          13.5          13.9      14.3
Total expenses                         12,399           13,899       15,586        17,478     Tier 1 ratio                        12.0          12.2          12.5      13.0
Pre-provision profit                   13,136           14,973       17,393        20,303     Equity Tier 1 ratio                 12.0          12.2          12.5      13.0
Loan loss provisions                     (161)             645        1,431         1,754     Growth(%)
Operating profit                       13,297           14,328       15,962        18,549     Revenue                             20.3          13.1          14.2      14.6
Associates/JV                                —               —            —             —     Operating expense                   18.1          12.1          12.1      12.1
Other non-operating inc./(exp.)         322.0            420.8        522.0         603.8     Pre-provision profit                22.5          14.0          16.2      16.7
Pre-tax profit                         13,619           14,749       16,484        19,153     Net profit                          27.6           8.3          11.7      16.2
Taxes                                   2,801            3,034        3,394         3,944     Deposit                             16.5          13.8          14.9      14.1
Net profit before minorities           10,818           11,715       13,090        15,209
Minority interests                        (1.5)           (1.5)        (1.5)         (1.5)
Preferred dividends                          —               —            —             —
Exceptionals/extraordinaries                 —               —            —             —    Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates.
Reported net profit                    10,819           11,717       13,091        15,211
Analyst adjustments                          —               —            —             —                                12MF P/E multiple
Net profit (Credit Suisse)             10,819           11,717       13,091        15,211      25
 Balance sheet (Rp bn)                 12/11A           12/12E       12/13E        12/14E
Assets                                                                                         20
Gross customer loans                  208,529          255,498      316,579       384,503
                                                                                               15
Risk provisions                         4,126            4,152        4,960         5,970
Net customer loans                    204,403          251,346      311,619       378,533
                                                                                               10
Interbank Loans                         7,549            8,681        9,549        10,504
Investment & Securities               146,918          143,425      143,425       143,425
                                                                                                5
Cash & cash equivalents                10,356           12,881       14,806        16,888
Fixed Assets                            4,145            4,478        4,811         5,145       0
Intangibles                                —                —            —             —         2008       2009         2010            2011          2012          2013
Other assets                            8,539            5,110        6,332         7,690
Total assets                          381,908          425,921      490,543       562,185
Liabilities
                                                                                                                        12MF P/B multiple
Interbank deposits                         —                —            —             —
                                                                                                6
Customer deposits                     323,428          368,023      423,032       482,508
Total deposits                        323,428          368,023      423,032       482,508       5
Other liabilities                      16,453            8,422        8,809        10,085
Total liabilities                     339,881          376,445      431,842       492,593       4
Shareholders' equity                   42,003           49,452       58,677        69,568       3
Minority interests                       24.4             24.4         24.4          24.4
Preferred stock                            —                —            —             —        2
Total liabilities & equity            381,908          425,921      490,543       562,185
                                                                                                1

                                                                                                0
                                                                                                 2008       2009         2010            2011          2012          2013


                                                                                             Source: IBES




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                          66
                                 25 January 2013




Appendix: Respondents’ summary




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013               67
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          25 January 2013



Appendix
Demographics
Figure 87: Could you please tell me your age?                                                      Figure 88: What is your total monthly income after tax?
                                                                                                                         30                                              28
                       45
                                                     40
                       40    37                                                                                          25                                23
                                                                                                                                                                                       21




                                                                                                      % of respondents
                       35                                                                                                20
    % of respondents




                       30                                                                                                                     13
                                                                                                                         15
                       25
                                                                                                                         10
                       20                                                                                                         5                                                                 5
                                                                     15
                                                                                                                          5                                                                                      2
                       15                                                                                                                                                                                                      1            1
                       10                                                         8                                       0




                                                                                                                              <1,000,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                          10,000,001-
                                                                                                                                           1,000,000-

                                                                                                                                                        1,500,001-

                                                                                                                                                                     2,000,001-

                                                                                                                                                                                   3,000,000-

                                                                                                                                                                                                5,000,001-



                                                                                                                                                                                                             10,000,001




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        >15,000,001
                                                                                                                                                                                                             7,500,000-
                                                                                                                                           1,500,000

                                                                                                                                                        2,000,000

                                                                                                                                                                     3,000,000

                                                                                                                                                                                   5,000,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                7,500,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                          15,000,000
                        5
                        0
                            18-29               30-45             46-55          56-65

Note: Sample size: 1531 respondents across 10 geographical regions.                                Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 89: Urban/rural split                                                                       Figure 90: Male/female split



                                             Rural
                                             34%
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Male
                                                                                                                                                        Female                                      49%
                                                               Urban
                                                                                                                                                         51%
                                                                66%




Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                               Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 91: How many people live in your household?
                                                                                                                 Would
% of        Total Less than Rp1,000k - Rp1,500k- Rp2,000k - Rp3,000k - Rp5,000k Rp7,500k- Rp10,000k More than prefer not Don’t
respondents       Rp1,000k     1,500k     2,000k    3,000k     5,000k - 7,500k 10,000k - 15,000k Rp15,000k to answer Know
1               2         4         4          2         1          3         1         0         0         0          6    0
2                                  7            22              10          7                  5                         4                  4                        4                          7                         7                           6          0
3                                 17            27              27         23             15                             9                  6                    14                         14                            7                   13                17
4                                 27            22              22         29             29                        28                     25                    21                         29                       43                       25                 0
5 or more                         47            26              38         39             49                        56                     64                    61                         50                       43                       50                83
Mean                          4.1              3.4             3.8         4.0            4.2                   4.3                        4.5                  4.4                         4.2                      4.2                   4.2                  4.1
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 92: How many children does your household have
1                                      46                 64      48       52            44          42                           34                     48                       67                    43                    46                           0
2                                      33                 31      32       31            35          32                           44                     30                        0                    29                    31                          60
3                                      14                  2      14       14            16          18                                8                   9                      11                    14                    23                          20
4                                       4                  2           5     2            3             4                              8                   4                      11                    14                      0                         20
5 or more                               3                  0           2     2            3             4                              5                   9                      11                     0                      0                          0
Mean                                   1.8            1.4         1.8      1.7           1.9        2.0                        2.1                      2.0                   2.0                    2.0                      1.8                         2.6
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                            68
                                                                                                                                                                                                25 January 2013

Figure 93: In your opinion, is it the right time to make a major purchase now?
                                                                                                                        3                    1                  4                 0                 0
                             100                 8                  6                6                 6
                                 80                                                                                                                                              43
          % of respondents




                                                                                                      60                59                  65                 64                                   64
                                 60              60                 62            65

                                 40
                                                                                                                                                                                 50
                                 20              31                 29           25                   31                34                  30                 29                                   36
                                 0              1                 3               4                   3                  4                 4                   4                  7                 0
                                        Less than 1,000k      Rp1,000k -      Rp1,500k-           Rp2,000k -       Rp3,000k - Rp       Rp5,000k -          Rp7,500k-         Rp10,000k -        More than
                                                              Rp1,500k        Rp2,000k            Rp3,000k            5,000k           Rp7,500k            Rp10,000k         Rp15,000k          Rp15,000k

                                                                                Excellent time       Good time       Not such a good time         A bad time

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 94: In your opinion, is now a good time to make a major purchase? Percentage of respondents who are positive
minus percentage of respondents who are negative
                             20                                                                                                                                                  14
                             10
                                 0
         % of respondents




                             -10
                             -20
                             -30                                                                                        -24
                                                                                                                                                                                                    -28
                             -40                                                                     -32                                    -32
                                              -36                -36                                                                                           -35
                             -50                                                 -42
                                        Less than 1,000k     Rp1,000k -       Rp1,500k-           Rp2,000k -       Rp3,000k - Rp     Rp5,000k -            Rp10,000k-        Rp10,000k -        More than
                                                             Rp1,500k         Rp2,000k            Rp3,000k            5,000k         Rp7,500k              Rp15,000k         Rp15,000k          Rp15,000k

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 95: Do you think the state of your own finances over the next six months will be better, worse or about same?
                                                  6                      2               1                    2               2                     1                   4                  0                 0
                             100

                                 80                                                                                                                                                        43                43
                                                                                                                                                                        43
          % of respondents




                                                                        63               54                56                 54                   58
                                 60              62

                                 40
                                                                                                                                                                        54                 57                57
                                 20                                     35               44                43                 44                   40
                                                 32
                                  0
                                         Less than 1,000k       Rp1,000k -       Rp1,500k-            Rp2,000k -       Rp3,000k - Rp          Rp5,000k -             Rp7,500k-        Rp10,000k -         More tha
                                                                Rp1,500k         Rp2,000k             Rp3,000k            5,000k              Rp7,500k               Rp10,000k        Rp15,000k           Rp15,000

                                                                                                         Better    About the same       Worse

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 96: Do you think the state of your own finances over the next six months will be better, worse or about the
same? Percentage of respondents who are positive minus percentage of respondents who are negative
                      60                                                                                                                                                         57                 57
                                                                                                                                                               50
                      50                                                        43                  41                 42
                                                                                                                                         39
 % of respondents




                      40                                       33
                      30                    26

                      20

                      10

                             0
                                      Less than 1,000k      Rp1,000k -       Rp1,500k-           Rp2,000k -       Rp3,000k - Rp     Rp5,000k -            Rp10,000k-         Rp10,000k -        More than
                                                            Rp1,500k         Rp2,000k            Rp3,000k            5,000k         Rp7,500k              Rp15,000k          Rp15,000k          Rp15,000k

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013



Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                                                69
                                                                                                               25 January 2013


Income and other
Figure 97: What savings or investment channels, if any, does your household use to save money?
                                                                                                               Would
% of                   Less than Rp1,000k Rp1,500k Rp2,000k Rp3,000k Rp5,000k Rp7,500k- Rp10,000k More than prefer not Don’t
respondents      Total Rp1,000k - 1,500k - 2,000k - 3,000k - 5,000k - 7,500k 10,000k - 15,000k Rp15,000k to answer Know
Bank account        45        12       20       32       48       64       79        61        79        86         44   33
Life insurance        3          0      2         1       3        5         6       32        14         21           0     0
Stock market          0          0      0         0       0        1         0        0         0          0           0     0
Cash                 34        26     32        41       40       27        22       29         0          0          19   17
Mutual Fund           0          1      0         0       0        0         1        0         0          0           0     0
State Bonds           0          0      1         0       0        0         0        0         0          0           0     0
Property              5          4      4         4       4        8         4       18        14          7           0   17
No savings           27        60     46        30       20       17        12       18        14          7          38   67
Base : Unwtd       1531        78    192       357      433      316        77       28        14         14          16     6
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 98: To what extent has your household income changed in the last 12 months?
Decline > 20%         1          0      1         1       1        0         1        0         0         0           0         0
-10% to -20%          3          1      3         2       2        3         5        7         0         7           6         0
-10% to flat          5          8      7         5       5        3         5       11         0        21           0     17
Unchanged            39        60      46       46       37       30        26       11        36         0        38       33
Flat to +10%         28        12      21       25       33       29        32       29        43        36        25       17
10-20%                9          3      4         6       8       15        18       25         0        14        19           0
20-30%                2          1      0         1       2        2         5        7         7         7           0         0
30%+                  0          0      0         1       0        1         0        0         0         0           0         0
Base : Unwtd       1531        78     192      357      433      316        77       28        14        14        16           6
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 99: In what way do you expect your household income to change in the next 12 months?
Decline > 20%         0          0      0         0       0        0         0        4         0         0           6     0
-10% to -20%          1          1      1         0       1        0         5        4         7         0           0     0
-10% to flat          2          3      3         2       1        1         1        0         7         0           6     0
Unchanged            22        38      28       25       17       21        13       11         7         0        38      17
Flat to +10%         30        29      35       32       33       22        26       29        29        14        13      50
10-20%               21        12      11       18       25       24        26       21        29        57           6    17
20-30%                8          4      3         6       8       14        17       14         7        21           6     0
30%+                  8          5      8         8       8       10        10       11         7         0        19       0
Base : Unwtd       1531        78     192      357      433      316        77       28        14        14        16       6
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 100: How do you think your purchases on credit card are likely to change in the next 12 months?
Rising                36         0     60       43       25       30        33       63        33        33       0         0
Staying the same      58      100      40       57       67       57        67       38        67        67     100         0
Decreasing                7      0      0         0       8       13         0        0         0         0       0         0
Base : Unwtd          66         1      5         7      12       23         3        8         3         3       1         0
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                             70
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        25 January 2013


Automobiles
Figure 101: Does your household currently own a car that is driven for personal use?
                                                                                                            Would
% of               Less than Rp1,000k Rp1,500k- Rp2,000k Rp3,000k Rp5,000k Rp7,500k Rp10,000k More than prefer not Don’t
respondents Total Rp1,000k - 1,500k      2,000k - 3,000k - 5,000k - 7,500k -10,000k - 15,000k Rp15,000k to answer Know
Yes              6         0        0         2        5       10       11       32        20        30         13    0
No                                 94                100                 100                      98                 95               90                  89                   68                       80                     70                 88           100
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 102: Does your household own a motorcycle/two-wheeler for personal use?
Yes                                   78             49                      66                   73                 82               87                  95                   76                      100                     90            75                 80
No                                    22             51                      34                   27                 18               13                     5                 24                           0                  10            25                 20
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 103: How many cars do you own in your household?
1                                     92               0                      0                   83            100                   89                 100                   88                      100                     67           100                  0
2                                      5               0                      0                   17                  0                   7                  0                 13                           0                      0             0               0
3 or more                              3               0                      0                    0                  0                   4                  0                  0                           0                  33                0               0
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 104: How long ago did you purchase this car?
1 year or less                        26               0                      0                    0                  6               32                  29                   38                           0                 100            50                  0
2 to 4 years                          34               0                      0                   67                 44               29                  43                   13                       50                         0             0               0
5 to 7 years                          20               0                      0                    0                 39               14                  29                   25                           0                      0             0               0
8 to 10 years                          7               0                      0                    0                  6               11                     0                  0                           0                      0         50                  0
> 10 years                            14               0                      0                   33                  6               14                     0                 25                       50                         0             0               0
Base: unwtd                           74               0                      0                    6                 18               28                     7                  8                           2                      3             2               0
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 105: How did you finance it?
All cash                              61              0                       0                   33                 44               82                  57                   50                      100                     33            50                  0
Cash+auto loan                        30              0                       0                   67                 44               11                  14                   38                           0                  67            50                  0
All auto loan                          9              0                       0                    0                 11                   7               29                   13                           0                      0             0               0
Sum                               100                 0                       0               100               100                  100                 100               100                         100                    100           100                  0
Base: unwtd                           74              0                       0                    6                 18               28                     7                  8                           2                      3             2               0
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 106: Will you or your family purchase or replace a passenger car in the next 12 months?
                         60
                                                           Definitely will                    Probably will                    Not sure                  Probably won't                       Definitely won't
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         50
                         50
                                                43
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              40                 40
                         40                                             37
       % of respondent




                                                              34                                                                                                  35
                                      33                                                          32                                                                                         32
                                                                                                                30        30                   30
                                                                                          28 27                                           27
                         30                                                                                                                                                                            24
                                                                                                                     23
                                                                   20                                                                               20                 21 21            20        20                                        20        20
                         20                17
                                                                                                           11                        12                      11                                                 10                     10
                         10                                                           7
                                                                                                                                                         5
                                                          2                                                                      2
                                0 1                   0                           1                    1                                                                            0                                0             0                       0
                          0
                              Less than 1,000k        Rp1,000k -                  Rp1,500k-            Rp2,000k -               Rp3,000k - Rp             Rp5,000k -                Rp10,000k-                  Rp10,000k -             More than
                                                      Rp1,500k                    Rp2,000k             Rp3,000k                    5,000k                 Rp7,500k                  Rp15,000k                   Rp15,000k               Rp15,000k
                                                                                                                               Income Bracket
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  71
                                                                                                                  25 January 2013

Figure 107: How do you plan to finance this upcoming car purchase?
                                                                                                                  Would
% of                     Less than Rp1,000k Rp1,500k- Rp2,000k Rp3,000k Rp5,000k Rp7,500k- Rp10,000k More than prefer not Don’t
respondents        Total Rp1,000k - 1,500k     2,000k - 3,000k - 5,000k - 7,500k 10,000k - 15,000k Rp15,000k to answer Know
All cash              42       100       25        44       39       46       40        20       100        33         50    0
Cash + auto loan     47          0       75        52       52       36        40       60             0     67           50        0
All auto loan        10          0        0            4     7       18        20       20             0      0            0        0
D.K                    1         0        0            0     2        0         0        0             0      0            0        0
Sum                 100       100       100       100      100      100       100      100        100       100          100        0
Base: unwtd         134          1        4        25       44       39        10        5             1      3            2        0
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 108: How much do you plan to spend on the car you or your household is planning to purchase?
Up to Rp100 mn       22          0      50         24       27       21        10        0         0         0            0         0
Rp 100-200 mn        59          0      50         56       59       56        70       80       100        67           50         0
Rp 200-300 mn        10          0        0        12        7       10        10       20         0        33            0         0
Rp 300-400 mn         4       100         0            4     5        3        10        0         0         0            0         0
> Rp 400 mn           4          0        0            4     2       10         0        0         0         0            0         0
Don't know            1          0        0            0     0        0         0        0         0         0           50         0
Base : Unwtd        134          1        4        25       44       39        10        5         1         3            2         0
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                 72
                                                                                                                      25 January 2013


Food and beverage
Figure 109: Have you purchased any of these products in the last three months?
                                                                                                              Would
                                                                                                              prefer
                        Less than Rp1,000k Rp1,500k- Rp2,000k Rp3,000k Rp5,000k Rp7,500k- Rp10,000k More than not to Don’t
% of respondents Total  Rp1,000k - 1,500k     2,000k - 3,000k - 5,000k - 7,500k 10,000k - 15,000k Rp15,000k answer Know
Drinks: Yes          70        55       59        66       74       76       73        65        89        75    82   100
Drinks: No               30        45        41         34    26     24            27          35          11          25        18          0
Drinks: Base           1043        53       146        259   285    208            44          17           9           8        11          3
Noodles: Yes             95        98        95         96    95     94            95          76          78         100        91        100
Noodles: No               5         2         5          4     5         6          5          24          22           0         9          0
Noodles: Base          1043        53       146        259   285    208            44          17           9           8        11          3
Bottled water: Yes       90        81        82         87    93     93            95         100         100          88       100        100
Bottled water: No        10        19        18         13     7         7          5           0           0          13         0          0
Bottled water: Base    1043        53       146        259   285    208            44          17           9           8        11          3
Cigarettes: Yes          47        38        38         47    51     44            59          53          67          63        27         67
Cigarettes: No           53        62        62         53    49     56            41          47          33          38        73         33
Cigarettes: Base       1043        53       146        259   285    208            44          17           9           8        11          3
Dairy: Yes               66        43        51         63    68     80            70          88         100          88        55         33
Dairy: No                34        57        49         37    32     20            30          12           0          13        45         67
Dairy: Base            1043        53       146        259   285    208            44          17           9           8        11          3
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 110: Have you purchased any of these products in the last three months?
Drinks - foreign              91    87       94         90    91    92        94         90          95          95     93            80
 Coca cola                    32    33       35         30    33    33        32         26          33          21     36            40
 Fanta                        26    23       27         29    26    25        32         21          19          21     36             -
 Sprite                       25    29       24         28    24    24        25         24          29          32     21            20
Drinks - local                 8    13        5         10     8     9         6         10           5           5         7         20
Drinks - base             726       29       86        172   212   158        32         11           8           6         9          3
Noodles - foreign              1        -     1          -     0     1         -          -           -           -         -          -
Noodles - local           100      100       99        100   100    99       100        100         100         100    100        100
 Indomie                      41    42       38         40    41    42        45         31          32          37     53            60
 Mie Sedap                    31    39       33         32    29    32        22         24          21          26     29            20
 Supermi                       8        7     8          8     8     6        12         14          11          11         6          -
 Sarimi                        8        7     9          9     8     7         5          4           5           5         6          -
Noodles base              989       52      138        249   271   196        42         13           7           8     10             3
Water - foreign                -        -         -      1     -     -         -          -           -           -         -          -
Water - local             100      100      100         99   100   100       100        100         100         100    100        100
 Aqua                         61    53       65         63    60    62        68         58          53          54     47            60
 Club                         15    27       16         13    15    12        12          7          17          16     21            40
 Vit                           9        6     6          7    12    10         5         11          17           8     16             -
Water - base              934       43      119        225   265   193        42         17           9           7     11             3
Cigarettes - foreign           5        3         -      2     5     7         5          7          11          10         -          -
Cigarettes - local            95    97      100         98    95    93        95         93          89          90    100        100
 Dji Sam Soe                  17    13        8         16    17    21        29         21           -          20         -          -
 Djarum Super                  7    10        3          6     9     9         -          7           -           -         -          -
 Sampoerna Hijau               5        7     8         10     2     2         -          7          11           -         -          -
 GG Surya                     14    10       21         16    13    13        10          7          11          20     20             -
Cigarettes - base         487       20       56        122   146    92        26          9           6           5         3          2
Dairy - foreign               54    44       53         56    54    58        54         57          68          45     90            50
Dairy - local                 46    56       47         44    46    42        46         43          32          55     10            50
 Frissian Flag                33    36       34         40    30    32        35         27          25          36     20            50
 Indomilk                     19    22       23         20    19    18        14          8          19           9     10            50
Dairy - base              691       23       75        163   195   166        31         15           9           7         6          1
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013



Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                    73
                                                                                                                                                                             25 January 2013

Figure 111: Do you expect to spend more on any of these products in the next 12 months?
                                                                                                              Would
                                                                                                              prefer
                        Less than Rp1,000k Rp1,500k- Rp2,000k Rp3,000k Rp5,000k Rp10,000k Rp10,000k More than not to Don’t
% of respondents Total  Rp1,000k - 1,500k     2,000k - 3,000k - 5,000k - 7,500k -15,000k - 15,000k Rp15,000k answer Know
Drinks: Yes          35        25       27        34       36       41       41        41        56        38    27    67
Drinks: No                                       65                75               73     66             64              59            59        59              44          63          73       33
Drinks: Base                                1043                   53           146      259             285          208               44        17               9           8          11        3
Noodles: Yes                                     59                55               53     61             60              62            61        47              56          50          64       67
Noodles: No                                      41                45               47     39             40              38            39        53              44          50          36       33
Noodles: Base                               1043                   53           146      259             285          208               44        17               9           8          11        3
Bottled water: Yes                               61                43               52     55             65              70            70        71              78          50          55       67
Bottled water: No                                39                57               48     45             35              30            30        29              22          50          45       33
Bottled water: Base                         1043                   53           146      259             285          208               44        17               9           8          11        3
Cigarettes: Yes                                  31                28               23     31             36              28            39        41              44          25          18       67
Cigarettes: No                                   69                72               77     69             64              72            61        59              56          75          82       33
Cigarettes: Base                            1043                   53           146      259             285          208               44        17               9           8          11        3
Dairy: Yes                                       46                32               38     44             43              59            43        59              78          63          36       33
Dairy: No                                        54                68               62     56             57              41            57        41              22          38          64       67
Dairy: Base                                 1043                   53           146      259             285          208               44        17               9           8          11        3
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 112: What percentage of your diet is made up of meat?
0%                                                     7            15              10      8             5           4            14         6            0             0      0              0
0-5%                                                  61            66              69    61             65         54             41        59           56            75     36         100
6-15%                                                 23            13              12    27             22         27             30        24           33            13     36              0
16-25%                                                 5                2            1      2             6         10              7         0           11             0      9              0
More than 25%                                          3                2            3      2             2           3             9        12            0            13      9              0
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 113: How do you think your meat consumption is likely to change over the next 12 months?
                        100
                                                                                                               15                                 12               11
                         90                                                    21            19                                   21
                                     26                    26
                         80
   % of respondents




                         70
                         60                                                                                                                       59                               75
                                                                                                               65                                                  67
                         50                                                    60            61
                                     64                    58                                                                     68
                         40
                         30
                         20
                                                                                                                                                  30               22              26
                         10                                15                  18            20                21
                                     9                                                                                            11
                          0
                              Less than 1,000k        Rp1,000k -            Rp1,500k-    Rp2,000k -       Rp3,000k - Rp        Rp5,000k -    Rp10,000k-        Rp10,000k -    More than
                                                      Rp1,500k              Rp2,000k     Rp3,000k            5,000k            Rp7,500k      Rp15,000k         Rp15,000k      Rp15,000k

                                                                                                  More   The same    Less

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 114: Percentage of respondents planning on consuming more meat minus respondents planning less
                         30                                                                                                                                                        26
                         25
                                                                                                                                                  18
                         20
                         15                                                                                                                                        11
     % of respondents




                         10                                                                                    6
                          5                                                                  1
                          0
                         -5
                                                                               -3
                        -10
                        -15                                -11                                                                    -10
                        -20          -17
                              Less than 1,000k        Rp1,000k -            Rp1,500k-    Rp2,000k -       Rp3,000k - Rp        Rp5,000k -    Rp10,000k-        Rp10,000k -    More than
                                                      Rp1,500k              Rp2,000k     Rp3,000k            5,000k            Rp7,500k      Rp15,000k         Rp15,000k      Rp15,000k

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                             74
                                                                                                                                            25 January 2013


Personal care
Figure 115: Have you purchased any of these products in the last three months?
                                                                                                              Would
                                                                                                              prefer
                        Less than Rp1,000k Rp1,500k- Rp2,000k Rp3,000k Rp5,000k Rp7,500k Rp10,000k More than not to Don’t
% of respondents Total  Rp1,000k - 1,500k     2,000k - 3,000k - 5,000k - 7,500k -10,000k - 15,000k Rp15,000k answer Know
Tissues: Yes         54        31       42        46       56       62       71       60        85        82     87   75
Tissues: No              46             69          58         54          44            38        29        40               15            18        13         25
Tissues: Base         1359              70         179        318         380        274           70        25               13            11        15          4
Fem hygiene: Yes         76             58          63         72          85            81        79    100                  78            78        88     100
Fem hygiene: No          24             43          37         28          15            19        21            0            22            22        13          0
Fem hygiene: Base       686             40          99        154         193        129           34            9             9             9         8          2
Cosmetics: Yes           62             59          59         58          64            64        70        64               69            82        47         50
Cosmetics: No            38             41          41         42          36            36        30        36               31            18        53         50
Cosmetics: Base       1359              70         179        318         380        274           70        25               13            11        15          4
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 116: Which brands have you purchased in the last three months?
Tissues - Foreign                   5          5         10          5         1         3         3         -        5            12             -          -
Tissues - Local                    96         93         88         93     94        96        96        96          94            87        100           100
 Paseo                             32         30         25         34     33        33        34        46          20            19            53         29
 Nice                              15          9         14         15     16        14        13        21          10            25            18         14
 Mitu                              18         13         18         17     18        17        19        17          25            25             6         14
Tissues - Base                 728            22         76     147       213       169        50        15          11             9            13          3
Fem Hygiene - Foreign              74         63         66         80     75        72        81        85          92            70            67         67
 Charm                             34         24         30         36     35        34        37        47          33            20            17         33
 Laurier                           28         28         26         30     31        26        28        31          33            30            17         17
 Kotex                             10         12          6         13         7     11        13            8       17            10            25         17
Fem Hygiene - Local                27         36         34         21     28        28        19        15           8            30            33         33
 Softex                            16         20         26         10     17        18        13            -        8            30            17         17
 Hers Protex                        6         16          5          6         6         5         4         -            -             -         8         17
Fem Hygiene - Base             524            23         62     111       164       105        27            9        7             7             7          2
Cosmetics - Foreign                42         25         44         43     41        44        49        58          35            43            48         57
 Lux                                9          9         15          8         8         9         9     11           6             5            14         14
 Ponds                             18          7         15         19     21        19        21        17          12            24             5         29
Cosmetics - Local                  57         74         58         58     59        56        51        43          65            57            52         43
 Citra                             21         19         22         20     22        20        21        17          30            19            19         14
 Viva                               9         19         13         10         9         7         4         -        6            14            10         14
Cosmetics - Base               843            41     105        185       245       175        49        16           9             9             7          2
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 117: Do you expect to spend more on any of these products in the next 12 months?
Tissues: Yes                  32         26         22         29         31        41        43        16           62            36        33             25
Tissues: No                   68         74         78         71         69        59        57        84           38            64        67             75
Tissues: Base            1359            70        179        318        380       274        70        25           13            11        15              4
Fem hygiene: Yes              45         30         34         42         47        55        59        44           78            11        38              0
Fem hygiene: No               55         70         66         58         53        45        41        56           22            89        63            100
Fem hygiene: Base         686            40         99        154        193       129        34         9            9             9            8           2
Cosmetics: Yes                38         31         30         37         42        42        50        20           38            18        20             25
Cosmetics: No                 62         69         70         63         58        58        50        80           62            82        80             75
Cosmetics: Base          1359            70        179        318        380       274        70        25           13            11        15              4
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                             75
                                                                                                                     25 January 2013

Figure 118: Tissue consumption, by brand
                                                                                    Age                   Monthly income
% of respondents       Total     Urban    Rural       Java        Non-Java 18-29 30-45 46-55 56-65 <Rp1.5mn Rp1.5-7.5mn >Rp7.5mn
2012
Paseo                      32        32       32             33         29    32   33     28   42        26          33          31
Mitu                       18        18       16             17         20    19   18     13   14        17          18          21
Nice                       15        14       17             15         15    15   14     18   12        13          15          18
Other                      35        35       35             35         36    34   35     41   31        44          34          30
2011
Paseo                      29        30       30             28         33    32   26     32   30        29          30          26
Mitu                       17        17       16             18         15    18   18     11   11        15          17          24
Nice                       16        17       16             14         21    17   17     12   15        16          16          17
Other                      37        36       38             40         32    33   39     45   44        40          36          33
2010
Paseo                      30        31       28             32         26    30   31     28   27        23          32          23
Mitu                       16        17       16             15         18    17   16     13   20        11          17          22
Nice                       16        16       16             14         19    16   16     17   12        18          16          11
Other                      38        36       40             38         38    37   36     42   42        47          36          44
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey

Figure 119: Feminine hygiene consumption, by brand
                                                                                    Age                   Monthly income
 % of respondents      Total     Urban    Rural       Java        Non-Java 18-29 30-45 46-55 56-65 <Rp1.5mn Rp1.5-7.5mn >Rp7.5mn
2012
Charm                      34        38       22             33         32    38   29     34   33        28          35          35
Laurier                    28        28       28             26         36    27   31     24   17        26          29          31
Softex                     16        14       24             15         20    10   19     28   28        24          15          12
Kotex                      10        10           9          10          9    12    8      9   17         8          10          11
Others                     12        10       16             16          3    12   12      6    6        13          11          11
2011
Charm                      27        31       17             27         26    29   24     30   27        19          29          45
Laurier                    30        31       28             25         41    29   30     32   18        30          29          50
Softex                     18        15       23             19         14    19   16     14   27        19          17           5
Kotex                      12        12       12             12          9    10   14     12    9        12          13           -
Others                     13        11       20             17         10    13   15     11   18        20          12           -
2010
Charm                      26        31       16             26         25    29   25     19   39        20          27          34
Laurier                    30        31       29             26         41    29   32     28   16        30          30          40
Softex                     18        15       22             16         20    14   19     24   22        17          18          13
Kotex                      13        12       14             14          9    15   10     13   16        12          13          13
Others                     13        11       18             17          6    14   14     15    6        22          11           0
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                   76
                                                                                                                       25 January 2013


Luxury goods
Figure 120: Have you purchased goods from any of the following categories in the past 3-12 months?
                                                                                                                         Would
% of                       Less than Rp 1,000k Rp 1,500k Rp 2,000k Rp 3,000k Rp 5,000k Rp 7,500k Rp 10,000k More than prefer not
respondents         Total Rp 1,000k - 1,500k - 2,000k - 3,000k - 5,000k - 7,500k - 10,000k - 15,000k Rp15,000k to answer                     D.K
Fashion:Yes             75        65        67        72        79        79        81        87         92        73         75             100
Fashion:No              25         35          33         28        21        21    19        13            8         27          25           0
Fashion:Base          1289         69         171        302       355       266    62        23           12         11          12           6
Sportswear:Yes          20         16          14         15        21        27    27        39           33         18          17          33
Sportswear:No           80         84          86         85        79        73    73        61           67         82          83          67
Sportswear:Base       1289         69         171        302       355       266    62        23           12         11          12           6
Watches:Yes             17         10           8         11        15        25    31        39           67         27           0          67
Watches:No              83         90          92         89        85        75    69        61           33         73         100          33
Watches:Base          1289         69         171        302       355       266    62        23           12         11          12           6
Jewellery:Yes           16          4          12         16        15        20    23        17           42         27           0          17
Jewellery:No            84         96          88         84        85        80    77        83           58         73         100          83
Jewellery:Base        1289         69         171        302       355       266    62        23           12         11          12           6
Perfumes:Yes            35         20          23         31        35        40    53        70           75         64           8          50
Perfumes:No             65         80          77         69        65        60    47        30           25         36          92          50
Perfumes:Base         1289         69         171        302       355       266    62        23           12         11          12           6
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 121: If so, what brand was this/brands were these?
Fashion-Foreign               32         11         29     20       27        35   48       61       35          51         33          46
 Gucci                         4          -          5         2     4         3   12        5         7          7          -           9
 Guess                         4          -          2         4     3         4    8        9         -         14          -           9
Fashion-Local                 66         82         71     75       69        60   48       39       64          51         44          55
 Nevada                       11         14         13     11       12        10    9        5       28          22         11           9
 Unbranded                    34         46         44     46       33        29   17        9       14          14         22          27
Fashion-Base                 972         45     114       216      282       211   50       20       11           8          9           6
Sportswear-Foreign            68         58         68     64       61        70   71       72       83         100         50         100
 Adidas                       19         33         27     26       17        16   15       11       33          67          -          20
 Nike                         14          8          7     12       12        15   18       22       17          33         50          20
Sportswear-Local              30         41         31     33       32        26   30       28       17           -         50           -
 Hommy Ped                     4          -          -         2     4         7    4         -      17           -         50           -
Unbranded                      8         33         14     12        9         4    8        6         -          -          -           -
Sportswear-Base              261         11         24     44       73        73   17        9         4          2          2           2
Watches-Foreign               62         28         41     63       61        73   59       86       68          99          -          75
 Seiko                        13          -          7     12       11        12   22       20         -         33          -          13
 Gucci                        15         14         13         5    20        16   14       20       22          33          -          13
Watches-Local                 32         72         40     34       35        27   36       13       34           -          -          25
Unbranded                     15         43         27     12       20        15    4        7         -          -          -          13
Watches-Base                 213          7         13     32       52        66   19        9         8          3          -           4
Jewellery-Foreign             14          -          7         6    14        12   14         -        -         50          -          50
 Madonna                       1          -          -         -     2         -     -        -        -          -          -           -
 Swarovski                     1          -          -         -         -     2     -        -        -          -          -           -
Jewellery-Local               87        100         86     89       87        80   87      100      100          50          -          50
 Unbranded                    81         80         86     89       79        73   80      100      100          50          -          50
Jewellery-Base               181          5         14     36       55        45   15        3         5          2          -           1
Perfume-Foreign               36         13         30     27       41        44   37       63       31          26          -          66
 Kenzo                         7         13          6         5     6        10    7        4         -         13          -          17
 Hugo Boss                     5          -          6         4     5         7    3       11         8          -          -          17
Perfume-Local                 61         87         64     71       57        54   64       37       69          75        100          33
Unbranded                     26         47         33     33       24        23   18       15       23          25          -          17
Perfume-Base                 496         15         43     99      138       126   36       16       11           8          1           3
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013



Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                         77
                                                                                                                                                                     25 January 2013

Figure 122: how much did you spend on these purchases?
                                                                                                                                                Would
                                                 Less than Rp 1,000k Rp 1,500k Rp 2,000k Rp 3,000k Rp 5,000k Rp 7,500k Rp 10,000k More than prefer not                                    Don’t
% of respondents                                 Rp 1,000k - 1,500k - 2,000k - 3,000k - 5,000k - 7,500k - 10,000k        -15,000k Rp15,000k to answer                                     Know
Fashion:Up to Rp 500k                                   98        96        94        86        80        76        70         73        63         89                                      83
Fashion: Rp500–1,000k                                         2            4         5          11         15            12           15             9             38             11            0
Fashion: Rp1,000–2,000k                                       0            0         0           2              4            8         5            18              0                0         17
Fashion: R 2,000- 5,000k                                      0            0         0           0              1            4         5             0              0                0          0
Fashion: Mean Exp Rp                                505,556       508,772      531,250     562,943   609,005        730,000 1,087,500           704,545        593,750     527,778 666,667
Sportswear: Up to Rp 500k                                    91           92        95          93         81            65           56            75             50            100          100
Sportswear: Rp500-1,000k                                      9            0         2           4         15            29           33             0             50                0          0
Sportswear: Rp1,000-2,000k                                    0            0         2           0              3            6        11            25              0                0          0
Sportswear: Mean Exp Rp                             522,727       630,435      528,409     552,083   606,164        632,353      694,444        750,000        625,000     500,000 500,000
Watches: Up to Rp 500k                                   100              92        97          96         89            84           56            88            100                0         75
Watches: Rp500–1,000k                                         0            8         3           2              6        16           33            13              0                0         25
Watches: Rp1,000 – 2,000k                                     0            0         0           2              3            0        11             0              0                0          0
Watches: Rp2,000k –5,000k                                     0            0         0           0              2            0         0             0              0                0          0
Watches: Mean Exp Rp                                500,000       519,231      507,813     524,039   590,909        539,474      694,444        531,250        500,000               - 562500
Jewellery: Up to Rp 500k                                     60           50        44          36         40            13            0            20              0                0        100
Jewellery: Rp500–1,000k                                      20           50        28          24         22            20            0            40             50                0          0
Jewellery: Rp1,000–2,000k                                    20            0        22          24         13            40            0             0             50                0          0
Jewellery: Rp2,000– 5,000k                                    0            0         3          13         16            20         100             40              0                0          0
Jewellery: Rp5,000-10,000k                                    0            0         0           4              4            7         0             0              0                0          0
Jewellery: Above Rp10,000k                                    0            0         0           0              2            0         0             0              0                0          0
Jewellery: Mean Exp Rp                              750,000       625,000      885,714 1,431,818 1,704,546 2,016,667 3,500,000              1,800,000 1,125,000                      - 500,000
Perfumes: Up to Rp 500k                                  100          100           99          97         92            94           94           100            100            100          100
Perfumes: Rp 500k–1,000k                                      0            0         0           1              3            3         6             0              0                0          0
Perfumes: Rp1,000k–2,000k                                     0            0         0           0              2            0         0             0              0                0          0
Perfumes: Mean Exp Rp                               500,000       500,000      595,960     572,993   825,397        770,833      515,625        500,000        500,000     500,000 500,000
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 123: Are you planning to purchase any goods from the Fashion category in the next 12 months?
                      100                                                                                                              87                                   82
                       80                                                                            68                 73
                                                                                      67                                                                  67
   % of respondents




                                                    56                61
                       60          46
                       40
                       20
                       0
                             Less than 1,000k   Rp1,000k -        Rp1,500k-        Rp2,000k -   Rp3,000k - Rp       Rp5,000k -      Rp7,500k-       Rp10,000k -          More than
                                                Rp1,500k          Rp2,000k         Rp3,000k        5,000k           Rp7,500k        Rp10,000k       Rp15,000k            Rp15,000k

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 124: Are you planning to purchase any goods from the Leather goods category in the next 12 months?
                      80                                                                                                                                  75
                      70
   % of respondents




                      60                                                                                                               48
                      50                                                                                                                                                    45
                                                                                                                       37
                      40
                                                                                                     26
                      30                                                              22
                                                   14                17
                      20
                                   7
                      10
                       0
                            Less than 1,000k    Rp1,000k -        Rp1,500k-       Rp2,000k -    Rp3,000k - Rp       Rp5,000k -      Rp7,500k-       Rp10,000k -          More than
                                                Rp1,500k          Rp2,000k        Rp3,000k         5,000k           Rp7,500k        Rp10,000k       Rp15,000k            Rp15,000k

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                           78
                                                                                                                                           25 January 2013

Figure 125: Are you planning to purchase any goods from the Watches category in the next 12 months?
                      80
                                                                                                                                 67
                      70
                      60
   % of respondents




                      50
                      40
                                                                                                       26           26
                      30
                                                                                         15                                                   18
                      20                                      12          14
                                 10               9
                      10
                       0
                           Less than 1,000k   Rp1,000k -   Rp1,500k-   Rp2,000k -   Rp3,000k - Rp   Rp5,000k -   Rp7,500k-   Rp10,000k -   More than
                                              Rp1,500k     Rp2,000k    Rp3,000k        5,000k       Rp7,500k     Rp10,000k   Rp15,000k     Rp15,000k

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 126: Are you planning to purchase any goods from the Jewellery category in the next 12 months?
                      50                                                                                                         42
   % of respondents




                      40
                                                                                                                                              27
                      30                                                                 20            23
                                                              16          15                                        17
                      20                         12
                      10          4
                       0
                           Less than 1,000k   Rp1,000k -   Rp1,500k-   Rp2,000k -   Rp3,000k - Rp   Rp5,000k -   Rp7,500k-   Rp10,000k -   More than
                                              Rp1,500k     Rp2,000k    Rp3,000k        5,000k       Rp7,500k     Rp10,000k   Rp15,000k     Rp15,000k

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 127: Are you planning to purchase any goods from the Perfumes category in the next 12 months?
                                                                                                                    70           75
                      80
                                                                                                                                              64
   % of respondents




                      60                                                                               53
                                                                          35             40
                      40                                      31
                                 20              23
                      20

                       0
                           Less than 1,000k   Rp1,000k -   Rp1,500k-   Rp2,000k -   Rp3,000k - Rp   Rp5,000k -   Rp7,500k-   Rp10,000k -   More than
                                              Rp1,500k     Rp2,000k    Rp3,000k        5,000k       Rp7,500k     Rp10,000k   Rp15,000k     Rp15,000k

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 128: Are you planning to purchase any goods from the Sportswear category in the next 12 months?
                      50                                                                                                         42
   % of respondents




                      40
                                                                                                                    30
                                                                                                       26                                     27
                      30                                                                 23
                                                                          17
                      20                                      13
                                 10               8
                      10
                       0
                           Less than 1,000k   Rp1,000k -   Rp1,500k-   Rp2,000k -   Rp3,000k - Rp   Rp5,000k -   Rp7,500k-   Rp10,000k -   More than
                                              Rp1,500k     Rp2,000k    Rp3,000k        5,000k       Rp7,500k     Rp10,000k   Rp15,000k     Rp15,000k

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                         79
                                                                                                                                                                       25 January 2013


Technology and Internet
Figure 129: Personal computer, mobile phone and smartphone penetration
                                                  120
         Electronic ownership (% of households)




                                                  100

                                                  80

                                                  60

                                                  40

                                                  20

                                                   0
                                                        Less than 1,000k        Rp1,500k- Rp2,000k        Rp3,000k - Rp 5,000k       Rp7,500k-Rp10,000k        More than Rp15,000k

                                                                                              Computers       Smartphones        Phones

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 130: Which of the following electronic products/services are you most likely to purchase in the next 12 months?
                                                                                                                        Would
                          Less than Rp 1,000k Rp 1,500k Rp 2,000k Rp 3,000k Rp 5,000k Rp 7,500k Rp 10,000k More than prefer not Don’t
                    Total Rp 1,000k - 1,500k - 2,000k - 3,000k - 5,000k - 7,500k - 10,000k -15,000k Rp15,000k to answer Know
Blue-Ray DVD Player     1         1         0         0         1         0         0         0          0         0          0    0
Camcorder                                                             0     0             0           0         0            0        0           0        0              0           0    0
Desktop computer                                                      1     1             3           3         2            1        4          29        0              0           0    4
Digital Camera                                                        1     1             1           2         3            1        0           0        8              0          17    1
DVD Player                                                            8     5             4           5         5            7        4           0        0              0           0    5
E-Reader                                                              0     0             0           0         0            0        0           0        0              0           0    0
Gaming facility                                                       0     0             0           1         0            1        0           0        0              0           0    1
GPS/Navigation                                                        0     0             0           0         0            0        0           0        0              0           0    0
Internet Service                                                      0     1             1           0         0            1        0           0        0              0           0    1
Mobile Phone (Basic)                                                  9     6           10            9         3            7        8          14        0             13           0    9
Smartphone                                                            5     6             6           9         8           13        4           0        8             13          33    3
MP3                                                                   0     1             0           1         1            1        0           0        0              0           0    1
Netbook                                                               0     0             1           1         1            4        8           0        0              0           0    1
Notebook PC                                                           5     5             8           9         9           10       15           7       33             19          33    8
Stereo HiFi                                                           0     0             0           0         1            0        0           7        0              0           0    1
Traditional TV                                                      11      6             5           3         2            0        0           0        0              0           0    4
LCD TV                                                                9     5           10           11        11           14       19           0       25              6          17    8
Flat screen TV                                                        4     5             3           2         2            4        0           0        0              0           0    4
Tablet                                                                0     0             1           2         3            4       12           7        0              0           0    0
None of these                                                       53     68           52           53        56           46       50          50       33             56          50   58
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                       80
                                                                                                                                                                                         25 January 2013

Figure 131: What services have you used in the last six months?
                        100
                        90
                                      2012                                                                2011              86                                   2010                   88

                        80                                     73
                        70
     % of respondents




                        60                                            50
                        50
                        40                                                                                                                            36
                               27                                                           28
                        30
                        20                     15
                                         11                                                                    9
                                                         7                                           7             5                                         5            7    5
                        10
                         0

                                                             Gaming        Banking        Shopping        Travel   Social network        Instant messaging

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 132: Do you have access to the internet?
                                                                                                                                    Would
                                          Less than Rp 1,000k Rp 1,500k Rp 2,000k Rp 3,000k Rp 5,000k Rp 7,500k Rp 10,000k Above prefer not Don’t
                              Total       Rp 1,000k - 1,500k - 2,000k - 3,000k - 5,000k - 7,500k - 10,000k - 15,000k 15,000k to answer Know
Yes                               9               3         5         6         7        15        23        15         29    15         19   33
No                              91                  97              95               94              93            85            77              85                  71         85                 81   67
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 133: If so, do you have broadband access already or expect to have it within 12 months?
Yes                                 64              50              67               57              65            68            47            100                   75        100                 67   50
No                                  26               0              11               33              35            21            41               0                  25             0               0    0
Don’t know                          10              50              22               10               0            11            12               0                   0             0              33   50
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 134: Which is your main Internet service provider?
Telkom Flash                                   35             50            44             29             42           32           29          50            25               50             33         50
Speedy                                         27              0            44             24             16           28           24          50            50               50             67          0
CBN                                             0              0             0              0              0            0            0            0              0              0              0          0
Fastnet (Firstmedia)                            1              0             0              0              0            2            0            0              0              0              0          0
IM2                                             9              0             0             14             16            4           12            0              0              0              0         50
Broadlink                                       0              0             0              0              0            0            0            0              0              0              0          0
Radnet                                          0              0             0              0              0            0            0            0              0              0              0          0
Ipnet                                           0              0             0              0              0            0            0            0              0              0              0          0
Biznet                                          1              0             0              0              0            2            0            0              0              0              0          0
Indonet                                         3              0             0             14              3            0            0            0              0              0              0          0
Telkomnet                                       4              0             0              0              3            4            6            0           25                0              0          0
Others                                         16             50            11             14             16           21           18            0              0              0              0          0
D.K.                                            5              0             0              5              3            6           12            0              0              0              0          0
Sum                                           100            100         100              100            100       100           100           100           100              100            100        100
Base : Unwtd                                  142              2             9             21             31           47           17            4              4              2              3          2
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                                          81
                                                                                                                                                                   25 January 2013


Telecommunications
Figure 135: Do you currently own and use a handset for personal use?
                                                                                                                        Would
                                                                                                                        prefer
                                  Less than Rp1,000k Rp1,500k- Rp2,000k Rp3,000k Rp5,000k Rp7,500k Rp10,000k More than  not to Don’t
% of respondents            Total    1,000k  -1,500k    2,000k - 3,000k - 5,000k - 7,500k -10,000k - 15,000k Rp15,000k answer Know
Yes, I pay for it              72        48       59        67       76       77       88       96        86        86     73    60
Yes, employer pays                0               1               1              0              0              0             0             0              0         0         0         0
Yes, somebody else pays           7               8               8              6              7              8             4             4             14         7         0         0
No I do not                      21              43              33             26             16             15             8             0              0         7       27         40
Base : Unwtd                1450                 75             187            336            403            300            73            28             14        14       15          5
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 136: What brand is your current mobile handset?
Foreign                     69              69             62             69             69             76          81            73             64           92     81           66
    Nokia                   42              51             38             46             40             43          48            32             43           38     45           33
    Huawei                   4               2              6              4              4              4              4             4              0         0        0          0
Local                       28              26             37             30             32             22          16            25             36            8     18           33
Base                   1146                 43         126            247            338            256             67            28             14           13     11            3
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 137: Do you plan to upgrade to a smartphone in the next 12 months?
Yes                    52              38             40              45             54             64              59           44             67            33     80            0
No                     48              63             60              55             46             36              41           56             33            67     20       100
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 138: Which brand of mobile handset will you buy?
Foreign               89              93          82              89             91             94                 97        100               100        100      100        100
    Nokia             47              75          53              50             42             40                 41            50             60            43     43       100
    Blackberry        28              14          18              20             30             38                 34            50              0            14     43            0
Local                  5               4          10                  4              7              3               0             0              0             0        0          0
Don't know             5               4          11                  7              4              2               3             0              0             0        0          0
Base                 603              28          66             137            185            121                 32            12              5             7        7          3
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 139: Which mobile operator are you using?
Telkomsel              43              37             39              41         41                 45             46            61             43            62     36            0
Indosat                23              19             25              28         21                 20             18            14             14            23     55           33
Esia                    6               2              9               5             6               8              6             4              0             8        0          0
Excel                  12              23             13              11         12                 11             15            11              0             0        0         33
Telkom Fleksi           5               9              6               4             5               5              3             4              7             8        0          0
Smart                   0               0              0               0             0               0              1             0              0             0        0          0
3                       5               7              4               5             4               5              3             4              7             0        0         33
Fren                    0               0              0               0             1               0              0             0              0             0        0          0
Smartfre                1               0              0               2             1               0              1             0              0             0        0          0
Others                  6               2              5               4             8               5              6             4             29             0        9          0
D.K                     0               0              0               0             0               0              0             0              0             0        0          0
Sum                   100             100         100             100           100             100            100           100               100        100       100       100
Base : Unwtd         1146              43         126             247           338             256                67            28             14            13     11            3
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                 82
                                                                                                                                                                              25 January 2013


Travel
Figure 140: Have you been/are you planning to go on a holiday in the next 12 months?
            100                                                                                                                     93
                                                                                                                               86                      85
             90                                                                                  82          81 83
                                                          75 76         77 80           78                                                        77                     79
             80                                                                                                                                                     71
                     63 64              66 68
             70
             60
             50
             40
             30
             20
             10
              0
                   Less than           Rp1,000k -     Rp1,500k-        Rp2,000k - Rp3,000k - Rp Rp5,000k -                    Rp7,500k-      Rp10,000k -        More than
                    1,000k             Rp1,500k       Rp2,000k         Rp3,000k      5,000k     Rp7,500k                      Rp10,000k      Rp15,000k          Rp15,000k

                                             Taken holiday in the past 12 months            Planning to take holiday in the next 12 months

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 141: Where did you go on your last holiday?
                                                                                                                 Would
                                                                                                                 prefer
                          Less than Rp 1,000k Rp 1,500k Rp 2,000k Rp 3,000k Rp 5,000k Rp 7,500k Rp 10,000k Above not to Don’t
% of respondents Total    Rp1,000k - 1,500k - 2,000k - 3,000k - 5,000k - 7,500k - 10,000k - 15,000k Rp15,000k answer Know
At home                34        47        47        38        28        36        28         4         10    10    33     0
Elsewhere in the             66               53            53            62                72              64                72             96                90               90       67       100
country
International                  0                0             0               0              0               0                 0              0                 0                0        0         0
destination
Base : Unwtd            1126                  49           126           268            327             241                   58             24                10               10        9         4
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 142: What was the main form of transport that you used to reach your holiday destination?
Car                            33              19           24           30            35              35            48             43             44           44              33        25
Bus                            30              46           36           34            30              28            19             17             33           11              33            0
Train                              6            8            4            7             6               8             0              9                 0        11              17            0
Ship                               2            0            4            1             2               2             0              0                 0            0           17            0
Aeroplane                          3            4            0            1             1               5             5              9                 0        22               0            0
Other                          26              23           31           27            27              21            29             22             22           11               0        75
Base : Unwtd                 744               26           67         166            237             155            42             23                 9            9            6            4
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 143: Where are you planning to go for your next holiday?
At home                                 27           38           36          30            21              29        28                 4             18            0          17            0
Elsewhere in the country                72           62           64          70            79              69        70             92                73       100             83       100
International Destination                1            0            0              0          0               2            2              4                 9         0            0           0
Other                                    0            0            0              0          0               0            0              0                 0         0            0           0
Sum                                    100          100          100       100          100             100          100            100            100          100            100       100
Base : Unwtd                       1167              50          129       269          342             252           60             26                11           11          12            5
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                            83
                                                                                                                                                                                                         25 January 2013


Property
Figure 144: Do you or your family live in your own property?
                                                                                                                                  Would
                                                                                                                                  prefer
% of                                         Less than Rp1,000k Rp1,500k Rp2,000k Rp3,000k Rp5,000k Rp7,500k- Rp10,000k More than not to Don’t
respondents                           Total     1,000k - 1,500k - 2,000k - 3,000k - 5,000k - 7,500k 10,000k - 15,000k Rp15,000k answer Know
Yes                                       74        79       76       72       70       77       79        78        85        77    57    67
No                                         26              21               24            28             30                    23                   21             22           15                  23       43       33
Sum                                       100            100              100            100            100                100                     100            100          100              100         100      100
Base: Unwtd                              1479              78             188            347            421                297                      75             27           13                  13       14        6
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 145: If you do not own a property, on what terms do you occupy the property?
Rented                                      72             81                69           68              74                    75                  69             83          100            100          67         50
Allocated                                   10                0              11            8              10                    15                    6             0            0              0          33          0
Borrowed                                    13             19                18           17              12                        6               19             17            0              0           0          0
Others                                       5                0                  2         7                  4                     4                 6             0            0              0           0         50
Sum                                       100            100                100          100             100                   100                 100            100          100            100         100        100
Base: Unwtd                               386              16                45           96             126                    68                  16              6            2              3           6          2
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 146: What is the market value of the property?
<Rp 100 mn                                   43               71             67            55                 33                    30                20            24         27               0          38         50
Rp 100–250 mn                                38               23             28            33                 48                    43                37            19         36              10          25         25
Rp 250–500 mn                                12                   2              2             7              12                    15                36            38         18              40          25          0
Rp 500–750 mn                                    4                0              1             3                  3                     7                 2         10         18              40           0          0
Rp 750–1,000 mn                                  1                0              0             0                  1                     2                 3         10          0               0           0          0
>Rp1,000 mn                                      0                0              1             0                  0                     0                 2             0       0              10           0          0
D.K.                                             2                5              1             1                  3                     3                 0             0       0               0          13         25
Base : Unwtd                              1093                62            143           251             295                   229                   59            21         11              10           8          4
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 147: If you are planning to purchase a property in the next two years, what is the main motivation for doing so?
Upgrade                                          39               59             47        35                     33                        41            53        22         25              30          50        100
First-time home buyer                            37               35             37        50                     40                        25            20        33         25              50          50          0
Investment                                       15                   0              3     11                     15                        21            27        22         25              20           0          0
Change of location                                   9                6          13            3                  12                        11                0     22         25               0           0          0
Holiday property                                     0                0              0         1                      0                      1                0         0       0               0           0          0
Base : Unwtd                                 442                  17             38        92                 137                       102               30            9       4              10           2          1
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 148: Do you or your households intend to purchase a property in the next two years?
                        100
                         90                                                                                                                                                                                 23
                         80
     % of respondents




                         70                                                                        67                     66                        60                  67
                                                                             73                                                                                                          69
                         60         78                   80
                         50
                         40                                                                                                                                                                                 77
                         30
                         20                                                                        33                     34                        40                  33
                                                                             27                                                                                                          31
                         10         22                   20
                          0
                              Less than 1,000k       Rp1,000k -           Rp1,500k-        Rp2,000k -             Rp3,000k - Rp                  Rp5,000k -       Rp10,000k-         Rp10,000k -         More than
                                                     Rp1,500k             Rp2,000k         Rp3,000k                  5,000k                      Rp7,500k         Rp15,000k          Rp15,000k           Rp15,000k

                                                                                                          Yes             No

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                                                       84
                                                                                                                                                           25 January 2013

Figure 149: Property financing—all cash
                      100
                                 87   88          90                                                                                                             90
                      90                                      84                82                 81
                      80                                                                                              76          76                75
                                                       68                            71                                                                     70
                                                                   65                                                      67                  64
                      70
   % of respondents




                                                                                                         59
                      60
                      50
                      40                                                                                                               33
                      30
                      20
                      10
                       0
                             Less than 1,000k   Rp1,000k -   Rp1,500k-         Rp2,000k -      Rp3,000k - Rp        Rp5,000k -   Rp7,500k-   Rp10,000k -   More than
                                                Rp1,500k     Rp2,000k          Rp3,000k           5,000k            Rp7,500k     Rp10,000k   Rp15,000k     Rp15,000k

                                                                         Current house financing        Future house financing

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 150: Property financing—cash + credit
                      50
                                                                                                                                       44
                      45
                      40
                      35
   % of respondents




                                                                   30
                      30                                                                                27
                      25                                                             23
                                                                                                                           20
                      20                               18
                      15              12
                                                                                9                                                              9                 10
                      10                                                                           8
                                5                             5                                                       5           5
                       5                         3
                                                                                                                                                    0        0
                       0
                            Less than 1,000k    Rp1,000k -   Rp1,500k-        Rp2,000k -      Rp3,000k - Rp         Rp5,000k -   Rp7,500k-   Rp10,000k -   More than
                                                Rp1,500k     Rp2,000k         Rp3,000k           5,000k             Rp7,500k     Rp10,000k   Rp15,000k     Rp15,000k

                                                                         Current house financing        Future house financing

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 151: Property financing—all credit
                      30
                                                                                                                                                    25
                      25                                                                                                               22
   % of respondents




                      20

                      15                                                                                13
                                                       11                                                                  10                  9
                      10
                                                                                     6                                5           5
                                                                   4                               3
                       5                                                        2
                                0     0           1           1                                                                                              0   0
                       0
                            Less than 1,000k    Rp1,000k -   Rp1,500k-        Rp2,000k -      Rp3,000k - Rp         Rp5,000k -   Rp7,500k-   Rp10,000k -   More than
                                                Rp1,500k     Rp2,000k         Rp3,000k           5,000k             Rp7,500k     Rp10,000k   Rp15,000k     Rp15,000k

                                                                         Current house financing        Future house financing

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                         85
                                                                                                                                                                                   25 January 2013


Education
Figure 152: What type of education institution do/will your children attend?
                                                                                                                                                      Would
                                                                                                                                                      prefer
                                                                Less than Rp1,000k Rp1,500k- Rp2,000k Rp3,000k Rp5,000k Rp7,500k Rp10,000k More than not to                                        Don’t
                                                       Total       1,000k - 1,500k    2,000k - 3,000k - 5,000k - 7,500k -10,000k - 15,000k Rp15,000k answer                                        Know
Public                                                       60        62       68        53       62       62       61       55        38        80     58                                          100
Private                                                        37          24         26          38               38         37         41          55         63             40          33            0
Semi- Private                                                   0            0          0          0                0          0           0          0          0                 0           0         0
None of these                                                  12          14         14          15               10         10           9          9          0                 0       17            0
Sum                                                          109          100        108         107              110       110         111        118         100            120        108        100
Base : Unwtd                                                1090           42        127         260              336       219          54          22          8                 5       12            5
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 153: Do your children currently participate in any study or courses outside of their school?
Yes                                                            24          12         17          17               28         31         31          36         38             40          42           20
No                                                             76          88         83          83               72         69         69          64         63             60          58           80
Sum                                                          100          100        100         100              100       100         100         100        100            100        100        100
Base : Unwtd                                                1090           42        127         260              336       219          54          22          8                 5       12            5
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 154: Do you yourself currently participate in any adult continuing education?
Yes                                                             2                0      2              2            2          4               1      4         17             0               7        17
No                                                             98          100        98           98              98         96            99       96         83           100           93           83
Sum                                                          100           100       100          100             100       100           100       100        100           100         100        100
Base : Unwtd                                                1474             74      189          350             423       298             68       27         12            12           15            6
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 155: Do you intend to spend more, or less, on education or training courses in the next 12 months?
                                              35
  Spending on education and training in the




                                                                                                           More     Less
                                              30
       next 12M (% of respondents)




                                              25

                                              20

                                              15

                                              10

                                               5

                                               0
                                                   Less than 1,000k   Rp1,000k -     Rp1,500k-    Rp2,000k -        Rp3,000k - Rp   Rp5,000k -     Rp7,500k-   Rp10,000k -         More than
                                                                      Rp1,500k       Rp2,000k     Rp3,000k             5,000k       Rp7,500k       Rp10,000k   Rp15,000k           Rp15,000k

Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                                     86
                                                                                                                 25 January 2013


Healthcare
Figure 156: Does your household have access to free or partially-free healthcare from the state?
                                                                                                           Would
                                                                                                    More prefer
                         Less than Rp1,000k Rp1,500k Rp2,000k Rp3,000k Rp5,000k Rp7,500k- Rp10,000k  than not to Don’t
                Total       1,000k - 1,500k - 2,000k - 3,000k - 5,000k - 7,500k 10,000k - 15,000k 15,000k answer Know
Yes                   34        37       33       33       32       35       40        32        46    43     40   20
No                   66           63     67            67    68     65     60       68            54        57       60      80
Sum                 100          100    100        100      100    100    100      100        100       100         100     100
Base : Unwtd       1451           75    190        343      405    296     70       25            13        14       15       5
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013

Figure 157: What services, if any, could you get from the state?
Hospital             92           86     97            91    90     95     93       100      83        83          83      100
Emergency Room       18           11     15            21    16     17     29        38      33         0          17         0
Prescriptions        29           25     26            32    27     27     50        38      17         0           0         0
Vaccinations         12            7     16            16    13      9     14        13       0        17           0         0
Diagnostic tests     12           11     10            19    11      8     21        13      17         0          17         0
Base : Unwtd        489           28     62        113      128    103     28         8       6         6           6         1
Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                               87
                                 25 January 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013               88
                                 25 January 2013




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013               89
                                                                                                                                       25 January 2013


Companies Mentioned (Price as of 23-Jan-2013)
Samsung Electronics (005930.KS, W1,473,000)
Kao (4452.T, ¥2,420)
Sony (6758.T, ¥1,167)
Nissan Motor (7201.T, ¥842)
Toyota Motor (7203.T, ¥4,155)
Honda Motor (7267.T, ¥3,285)
Suzuki Motor (7269.T, ¥2,272)
Yamaha Motor (7272.T, ¥1,022)
Mitsubishi Corp (8058.T, ¥1,824)
Unicharm (8113.T, ¥4,785)
Apple Inc (AAPL.OQ, $504.77)
ACE Hardware Indonesia (ACES.JK, Rp800)
Astra International (ASII.JK, Rp7,800, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp9,400)
Bank Central Asia (BBCA.JK, Rp9,300, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp11,000)
Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI.JK, Rp3,850)
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI.JK, Rp7,800)
Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN.JK, Rp1,570)
Bank Jabar Banten (BJBR.JK, Rp1,200)
Bank Mandiri (Persero) (BMRI.JK, Rp8,450)
Bakrie Telecom PT (BTEL.JK, Rp50)
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN.JK, Rp5,200)
Erajaya Swasembada Tbk (ERAA.JK, Rp2,775, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp3,300)
XL Axiata Tbk (EXCL.JK, Rp5,300)
Smartfren (FREN.JK, Rp90)
Gudang Garam (GGRM.JK, Rp51,600)
HM Sampoerna (HMSP.JK, Rp63,100)
Indofood CBP (ICBP.JK, Rp8,050, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp8,100)
Indosiar Karya Media (IDKM.JK, Rp980)
PT Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS.JK, Rp5,150)
Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF.JK, Rp6,050)
PT Indosat Tbk (ISAT.JK, Rp6,700)
Kalbe Farma (KLBF.JK, Rp1,060)
Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI.JK, Rp6,400, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp8,100)
Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN.JK, Rp2,425)
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MRTI.BO, Rs1574.2)
Nokia (NOK.N, $4.62)
Research In Motion Limited (RIMM.OQ, $17.9)
Bentoel Intl (RMBA.JK, Rp600)
Surya Citra Media (SCMA.JK, Rp2,475)
Tower Bersama (TBIG.JK, Rp5,900)
PT Telkom (Telekomunikasi Indo.) (TLKM.JK, Rp9,600)
PT Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR.JK, Rp25,000)
Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ.JK, Rp1,530)
Unilever Indonesia (UNVR.JK, Rp22,450)




                                                           Disclosure Appendix
Important Global Disclosures
I, Ella Nusantoro, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies and
securities and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in
this report.




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                      90
                                                                                                                                                              25 January 2013


Price and Rating History for Astra International (ASII.JK)


ASII.JK             Closing Price     Target Price                                                           Target Price       Closing Price ASII.JK
Date                         (Rp)             (Rp)           Rating             9,500
01-Mar-10                  3,685            4,340                 O
03-May-10                  4,640            5,200                 N
30-Jul-10                  5,070            5,400                               7,500
16-Nov-10                  5,600            6,400
13-Jul-11                  6,800            7,800                 *             5,500
29-Jul-11                  7,050            7,920
27-Sep-11                  6,055            7,400                O
01-Nov-11                  6,650            7,879                N              3,500
08-Feb-12                  7,485            6,589                U                              1- Jul- 10      1- Jan- 11     1- Jul- 11    1- Jan- 12   1- Jul- 12      1- Jan- 13
14-Mar-12                  7,305            6,589                N       O U T PERFO RM
25-Apr-12                  7,090            6,700                              N EU T RA L
                                                                      U N D ERPERFO RM
27-Jul-12                  6,650            6,850
04-Oct-12                  7,750            9,000                O
29-Oct-12                  7,850            9,400
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.

Price and Rating History for Bank Central Asia (BBCA.JK)


BBCA.JK             Closing Price     Target Price                                                        Target Price         Closing Price BBCA.JK
Date                         (Rp)             (Rp)           Rating           12,000
15-Apr-10                  5,800            6,300                 N
03-May-10                  5,500            6,000
30-Jul-10                  5,950            6,300                               9,500
14-Sep-10                  6,050            6,900
31-Jan-11                  5,650            7,400                O              7,000
31-Mar-11                  6,950            8,200
29-Apr-11                  7,400            8,700                N
29-Jul-11                  8,300            8,600                               4,500
27-Sep-11                  7,500            8,400                                            1- Jul- 10      1- Jan- 11      1- Jul- 11     1- Jan- 12    1- Jul- 12      1- Jan- 13
24-Oct-11                  7,950            9,500                              N EU T RA L
17-Feb-12                  7,450            9,200                O       O U T PERFO RM
                                                                           REST RI C T ED
30-Mar-12                  8,000           10,000
06-Aug-12                  7,700                                 R
09-Aug-12                  8,000           10,000                O
29-Oct-12                  8,100           11,000
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.

Price and Rating History for Erajaya Swasembada Tbk (ERAA.JK)


ERAA.JK             Closing Price     Target Price                                                        Target Price         Closing Price ERAA.JK
Date                         (Rp)             (Rp)           Rating             3,500
29-Feb-12                  1,330            1,550               O*
02-May-12                  1,620            2,000                               3,000
31-Jul-12                  2,100            2,000                N              2,500
14-Aug-12                  2,225            2,000                O
15-Aug-12                  2,200            2,000                N              2,000
07-Nov-12                  2,475            3,300                O              1,500
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.
                                                                                1,000
                                                                                    1- Mar- 12       1- May- 12       1- Jul- 12      1- Sep- 12     1- Nov- 12        1- Jan- 13

                                                                         O U T PERFO RM
                                                                               N EU T RA L




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                                 91
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Price and Rating History for Indofood CBP (ICBP.JK)


ICBP.JK             Closing Price     Target Price                                                     Target Price       Closing Price ICBP.JK
Date                         (Rp)             (Rp)           Rating          9,000
10-Aug-11                  5,600            7,300                 O
11-Aug-11                  5,750                                   *         8,000
03-Feb-12                  5,150            7,300                 O          7,000
01-May-12                  5,750            7,350
03-Oct-12                  6,600            8,100                            6,000

* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.                   5,000

                                                                             4,000
                                                                                          1- Oct- 11     1- Jan- 12   1- Apr- 12     1- Jul- 12      1- Oct- 12   1- Jan- 13

                                                                        O U T PERFO RM



Price and Rating History for Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI.JK)


MAPI.JK             Closing Price     Target Price                                                     Target Price       Closing Price MAPI.JK
Date                         (Rp)             (Rp)           Rating          9,000
04-Nov-11                  5,050            6,000               O*
30-Mar-12                  6,350            7,900                            8,000
01-May-12                  6,900            8,400
01-Nov-12                  6,400            8,100                            7,000
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.
                                                                             6,000

                                                                             5,000
                                                                                            1- Jan- 12       1- Apr- 12        1- Jul- 12         1- Oct- 12      1- Jan- 13

                                                                        O U T PERFO RM


The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received Compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's
total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities

As of December 10, 2012 Analysts’ stock rating are defined as follows:
Outperform (O) : The stock’s total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark*over the next 12 months.
Neutral (N) : The stock’s total return is expected to be in line with the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
Underperform (U) : The stock’s total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
 *Relevant benchmark by region: As of 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which
consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and
Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. As of 2nd October 2012, U.S. and Canadian as well as European ratings are based on a stock’s total
return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the
most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. For Latin American and non-Japan Asia stocks, ratings
are based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark; Australia, New Zealand are, and prior to 2nd
October 2012 U.S. and Canadian ratings were based on (1) a stock’s absolute total return potential to its current share price and (2) the relative attractiveness of a
stock’s total return potential within an analyst’s coverage universe. For Australian and New Zealand stocks, 12-month rolling yield is incorporated in the absolute total
return calculation and a 15% and a 7.5% threshold replace the 10-15% level in the Outperform and Underperform stock rating definitions, respectively. The 15% and
7.5% thresholds replace the +10-15% and -10-15% levels in the Neutral stock rating definition, respectively. Prior to 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings were
based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark.
Restricted (R) : In certain circumstances, Credit Suisse policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications,
including an investment recommendation, during the course of Credit Suisse's engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain other
circumstances.

Volatility Indicator [V] : A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has moved up or down by 20% or more in a month in at least 8 of the past 24
months or the analyst expects significant volatility going forward.

Analysts’ sector weightings are distinct from analysts’ stock ratings and are based on the analyst’s expectations for the fundamentals and/or
valuation of the sector* relative to the group’s historic fundamentals and/or valuation:
Overweight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is favorable over the next 12 months.
Market Weight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is neutral over the next 12 months.
Underweight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is cautious over the next 12 months.



Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                          92
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*An analyst’s coverage sector consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector. An analyst may cover multiple sectors.

Credit Suisse's distribution of stock ratings (and banking clients) is:

Global Ratings Distribution
Rating                                                                                   Versus universe (%)                            Of which banking clients (%)
Outperform/Buy*                                                                                             43%                                     (53% banking clients)
Neutral/Hold*                                                                                               38%                                     (47% banking clients)
Underperform/Sell*                                                                                          16%                                     (42% banking clients)
Restricted                                                                                                   3%
*For purposes of the NYSE and NASD ratings distribution disclosure requirements, our stock ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform most closely
correspond to Buy, Hold, and Sell, respectively; however, the meanings are not the same, as our stock ratings are determined on a relative basis. (Please refer to
definitions above.) An investor's decision to buy or sell a security should be based on investment objectives, current holdings, and other individual factors.

Credit Suisse’s policy is to update research reports as it deems appropriate, based on developments with the subject company, the sector or the
market that may have a material impact on the research views or opinions stated herein.
Credit Suisse's policy is only to publish investment research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair and not misleading. For more detail please refer
to Credit Suisse's Policies for Managing Conflicts of Interest in connection with Investment Research: http://www.csfb.com/research and
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Credit Suisse does not provide any tax advice. Any statement herein regarding any US federal tax is not intended or written to be used, and cannot
be used, by any taxpayer for the purposes of avoiding any penalties.

Price Target: (12 months) for Bank Central Asia (BBCA.JK)
Method: Our target price for BBCA of Rp11,000/share is derived based on Gordon's growth model assuming sustainable Return on Equity (ROE)
        of 26.9%, beta of 1x, risk free rate of 8.0%, market risk premium of 5% and cost of equity of 13.0%. Our target price for BBCA implies 4.6x
        13E PBR and 20.6x 13E PER. We value BBCA at premium to its local peers given the bank's high growth capacity, strong low cost
        funding franchise and robust asset quality.
Risk:      Risks to our estimates and target price of Rp11,000/share for BBCA includes: 1) longer than anticipated tight liquidity condition in
           Indonesia as well as faster than expected recovery of the currently tight liquidity condition, 2) significant changes in global sentiment, 3)
           significant changes in public's confidence in the bank, 4) risks relating to Indonesia, including macroeconomic, political and social risks, 5)
           risks of major changes in the bank's current management team, 6) currency risks
Price Target: (12 months) for Indofood CBP (ICBP.JK)
Method: Our target price is derived using the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) method. For the noodle and dairy divisions, we are using regional valuation
        for the respective sectors, of 12.4x and 7.2x EV/EBITDA 2013E. And for the other businesses (food seasonings, snack foods and special
        foods), we are using 10x EV/EBITDA 2013x, based on the Indonesia's consumer sector under Credit Suisse coverage, excluding Unilever
        Indonesia (UNVR.JK). To the total value of Rp40.6 tn, we add Rp7.4 tn of cash and deduct Rp705 bn of debt for 2013E. Thus we arrive at
        a total value of Rp47.3 tn, which is equal to Rp8,100/share.
Risk:      Risks that could impede achievement of our Rp8,100 target price for Indofood CBP include: (1) competition from both existing and new
           players, (2) fluctuation of commodity prices, (3) completion of new capacity, (4) Indonesia's macreconomic situation, (5) fluctuation of
           exchange rates, and (6) regulatory risks.
Price Target: (12 months) for Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI.JK)
Method: Our target price of Rp8100 for Mitra Adiperkasa is based on DCF valuations. We assume 12.5x WACC (8% risk free rate, 1.2x Beta, and
        5% risk premium). The implied multiples are 23.1x FY13E price to earnings ratio (P/E), and 11.0x FY13E EV/EBITDA.
Risk:      Key risks to our Rp8100 target price for Mitra Adiperkasa include principal risks, forced into cannibalisation by the property boom,
           competition from both existing and new players, regulatory risks, and macro risks.
Price Target: (12 months) for Astra International (ASII.JK)

Method: Our Rp9,400/share target price for Astra International is based on our sum-of-the-parts valuation analysis. We value the automotive
        division by applying a FY13E price to earnings ratio (P/E) at 16.0x, agricultural division at 16.0x, financing division at 10.6x, heavy
        equipment division at 15.0x, and others at 11.8x.
Risk:      Potential risks to our Rp9,400/share target price for Astra International include: competition risk, regulatory risk in the form of import duties,
           plus a significant deterioration in the macro economy, particularly at the consumer confidence level, which has a high correlation with car
           sales, and liquidity in auto financing, which has a high correlation with motorcycle sales volume.




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                       93
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Price Target: (12 months) for Erajaya Swasembada Tbk (ERAA.JK)
Method: Our target price of Rp3,300 for Erajaya Swasembada is derived from the our JCI target price of 15.0x P/E 2013E, or at 44% and 64%
        discount to the average of Indonesia consumer and retail sector, under Credit Suisse coverage, accordingly.
Risk:     Thre risk that may impede achievement of our Rp3,300 target price for Erajaya Swasembada are: (1) high reliance on third-party
          principals for products, (2) change in terms and conditions of agreement with third-party principals, (3) fluctuations in exchange rate, (4)
          competition, (5) regulatory risk, and (6) Indonesia's macro stability risk.

Please refer to the firm's disclosure website at www.credit-suisse.com/researchdisclosures for the definitions of abbreviations typically used in the
target price method and risk sections.
See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names
The subject company (BBCA.JK, ICBP.JK, MAPI.JK, ERAA.JK, 005930.KS, 6758.T, 7203.T, 7267.T, BBRI.JK, AAPL.OQ, BBNI.JK, ISAT.JK,
BBTN.JK, BTPN.JK, UNVR.JK, IDKM.JK, BMRI.JK, BTEL.JK, EXCL.JK, INDF.JK, MNCN.JK, RIMM.OQ, SCMA.JK, NOK.N, TLKM.JK, TOWR.JK)
currently is, or was during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of this report, a client of Credit Suisse.
Credit Suisse provided investment banking services to the subject company (BBCA.JK, ICBP.JK, ERAA.JK, 7203.T, 7267.T, BBRI.JK, BBNI.JK,
ISAT.JK, BBTN.JK, BTPN.JK, UNVR.JK, IDKM.JK, BMRI.JK, BTEL.JK, INDF.JK, SCMA.JK, NOK.N, TLKM.JK, TOWR.JK) within the past 12
months.
Credit Suisse provided non-investment banking services to the subject company (BBCA.JK, 005930.KS, 6758.T, 7203.T, 7267.T, AAPL.OQ,
BBNI.JK, ISAT.JK, BMRI.JK, BTEL.JK, INDF.JK, NOK.N) within the past 12 months
Credit Suisse has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company (BBCA.JK, 7203.T, 7267.T, BBNI.JK, BBTN.JK,
BTPN.JK, IDKM.JK, SCMA.JK, NOK.N, TOWR.JK) within the past 12 months.
Credit Suisse has received investment banking related compensation from the subject company (BBCA.JK, ICBP.JK, ERAA.JK, 7203.T, 7267.T,
BBRI.JK, BBNI.JK, ISAT.JK, BBTN.JK, BTPN.JK, UNVR.JK, IDKM.JK, BMRI.JK, BTEL.JK, INDF.JK, SCMA.JK, NOK.N, TLKM.JK, TOWR.JK)
within the past 12 months
Credit Suisse expects to receive or intends to seek investment banking related compensation from the subject company (BBCA.JK, ICBP.JK,
MAPI.JK, ERAA.JK, 005930.KS, 4452.T, 7201.T, 7203.T, MRTI.BO, 7267.T, 7269.T, 7272.T, BBRI.JK, AAPL.OQ, 8113.T, BBNI.JK, ISAT.JK,
BBTN.JK, BTPN.JK, UNVR.JK, IDKM.JK, BMRI.JK, BTEL.JK, EXCL.JK, GGRM.JK, INDF.JK, MNCN.JK, RIMM.OQ, SCMA.JK, NOK.N, TLKM.JK,
TOWR.JK) within the next 3 months.
Credit Suisse has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from the subject company (BBCA.JK,
005930.KS, 6758.T, 7203.T, 7267.T, AAPL.OQ, BBNI.JK, ISAT.JK, BMRI.JK, BTEL.JK, INDF.JK, NOK.N) within the past 12 months
As of the date of this report, Credit Suisse makes a market in the following subject companies (6758.T, 7201.T, 7203.T, 7267.T, AAPL.OQ,
RIMM.OQ, NOK.N).
Credit Suisse may have interest in (BBCA.JK, ICBP.JK, MAPI.JK, ASII.JK, ERAA.JK, BBRI.JK, ACES.JK, BBNI.JK, ISAT.JK, BBTN.JK, BTPN.JK,
UNVR.JK, IDKM.JK, BJBR.JK, BMRI.JK, BTEL.JK, EXCL.JK, GGRM.JK, IMAS.JK, INDF.JK, KLBF.JK, MNCN.JK, SCMA.JK, TBIG.JK, TLKM.JK,
TOWR.JK)
As of the end of the preceding month, Credit Suisse beneficially own 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of (MRTI.BO, BTEL.JK).

Important Regional Disclosures
Singapore recipients should contact Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch for any matters arising from this research report.
The analyst(s) involved in the preparation of this report have not visited the material operations of the subject company (BBCA.JK, ICBP.JK,
MAPI.JK, ASII.JK, ERAA.JK, 005930.KS, 4452.T, 6758.T, 7201.T, 7203.T, MRTI.BO, 7267.T, 7269.T, 7272.T, BBRI.JK, 8113.T, ACES.JK, BBNI.JK,
ISAT.JK, BBTN.JK, BTPN.JK, UNVR.JK, IDKM.JK, BJBR.JK, BMRI.JK, BTEL.JK, EXCL.JK, GGRM.JK, IMAS.JK, INDF.JK, KLBF.JK, MNCN.JK,
RIMM.OQ, SCMA.JK, TBIG.JK, NOK.N, TLKM.JK, TOWR.JK) within the past 12 months
An analyst involved in the preparation of this report has visited certain material operations of the subject company (AAPL.OQ) within the past 12
months
The travel expenses of the analyst in connection with such visits were not paid or reimbursed by the subject company, other than de minimus local
travel expenses.
Restrictions on certain Canadian securities are indicated by the following abbreviations: NVS--Non-Voting shares; RVS--Restricted Voting Shares;
SVS--Subordinate Voting Shares.
Individuals receiving this report from a Canadian investment dealer that is not affiliated with Credit Suisse should be advised that this report may not
contain regulatory disclosures the non-affiliated Canadian investment dealer would be required to make if this were its own report.
For Credit Suisse Securities (Canada), Inc.'s policies and procedures regarding the dissemination of equity research, please visit
http://www.csfb.com/legal_terms/canada_research_policy.shtml.
The following disclosed European company/ies have estimates that comply with IFRS: (7201.T).



Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                           94
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As of the date of this report, Credit Suisse acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the equities securities that are the subject of this report.
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Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited................................................... Ella Nusantoro ; Teddy Oetomo ; Dian Haryokusumo ; Priscilla Tjitra

For Credit Suisse disclosure information on other companies mentioned in this report, please visit the website at www.credit-
suisse.com/researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683.




Indonesia Consumer Survey 2013                                                                                                                                     95
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Tags: Credit, Suisse
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posted:3/2/2013
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Description: Maintaining confidence and optimism