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  Climate Change Regional
      Modeling: Model

Asunción, agosto 2006

                        Haroldo Machado Filho
  CC National Programme
• Initial strategy: emphasizing studies for the
  preparation of the Brazilian Inventory of Net
  Anthropogenic Emissions of Greenhouse Gases.

• 2000: inclusion of the climate change issue in
  the Government’s 2001-2004 multi-year plan –
  preliminary studies on CC vulnerability,
  emphasizing health, agriculture and coral

• First National Communication: some case
  studies of climate change impacts were
  identified and presented as examples of areas
  that would require further research.
        New Challenges
• Second National Communication:
  - Downscaling of global circulation models for
  Brazil will be developed.
  - Studies on vulnerability and adaptation will be
  undertaken, with a focus on the health sector; energy
  sector; water resources, floods, and desertification;
  agriculture, pasture and livestock sector; coastal zone
  management; and aquatic biodiversity
• Continental dimension, with many different
  regions and biomes – need of a climate change
  model with an adequate spatial resolution.
         Global Modeling
• Climate change scenarios for the 21st century were
  derived from various global climate models used by
  the IPCC.

• The fact that global climate models use different
  physical representations of processes, with a
  relatively low resolution grid, introduces a certain
  degree of uncertainty in future climate change

• Eg.: Amazon Watershed - some models estimate
  climates with higher rainfall and others relatively
  drier climates
• Need of downscaling methods that can be applied to the climate
  change scenarios based on the global climate models.

• Objective: more detailed projections of climate, by states,
  watersheds, valleys or regions, with a higher spatial resolution
  than that provided by a global climate model.

• Crucial for the development of climate change impact
  assessment (e.g.: management and operation of water resources,
  on natural ecosystems, on agricultural activities, etc.).

• Fundamental importance to develop climate modeling capacity
  in Brazil, through analyses of global and regional climate
  models for current and future climate change scenarios.
   Regional Modeling
Who would be able to run a regional model in

- Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies
 (CPTEC) of the National Space Research Institute
 (INPE), under the Ministry of Science and

Which model should be used?

• ETA model, used at National Center for
  Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in the United
  States, was configured to run over the South
  American continent, with a resolution of 80 km.
• This limited area model has 38 atmospheric layers
  and its domain includes part of the adjacent Atlantic
  and Pacific Oceans.
• The model usually runs in weather prediction mode
  with a 6-hour forecast, and extending to 72 hours. It
  is currently run to make seasonal climate predictions,
  with horizontal resolutions of 80 and 40 km.
                  Eta/CPTEC (2)
• Preliminary study: the regional ETA model was used to
  produce predictions of one month in South America under dry
  and rainy conditions (for some extreme rainfall events, in an
  experimental mode).
• The ETA/CPTEC regional model proved capable of producing
  one-month climatic predictions for South America in a
  continuous run.
• The results were compared to predictions by the GCM in order
  to evaluate the positive contribution of regional runs. The
  regional predictions showed that the greater resolution could
  provide more details to the predictions, especially for the
  temperature fields near the surface.
• The magnitude of variables predicted were in general closer to
  the observations.
                     Eta/CPTEC (3)
•   The results of these preliminary tests were encouraging.
•   In the initial phase of the project “Extended Range Simulations over
    South America” the ETA/CPTEC model was for the first time
    integrated in the “climatic mode”, that is, run continuously for a
    greater period of time than that used to produce weather predictions
    (60 hours) over South America.
•   The model has been evaluated in terms of stability and quality of
    predictions produced for an integration of the longer period, proving
    capable of reproducing the climatic conditions with good spatial
•   Completion of a climatic run of ETA/CPTEC, of at least 10 years, to
    represent the climatology of this model, and thus to study and
    determine the abilities of the model and the predictability of the
    climate in different regions of the country and of South America,
    similar to the evaluations made with CPTEC’s global climate model.
      Regional Modeling
• CPTEC’s climate modeling strategy includes global climate
  models and regional climate models nested in a global climate
  model (dynamic downscaling).

• For downscaling of global climate change scenarios to be
  developed at CPTEC, the regional model to be used is
  ETA/CPTEC, nested in version 3 of the Hadley Center’s
  coupled global climate model (HadCM3H, a special version of
  HadGEM1 (or HadCM3) and ECHAM5 with a higher
  horizontal resolution).

• Spacial resolution of 40 km – regional future climate
  predictions (2010-2100) and extreme scenarios A2 (high
  emission) and B2 (low emission) of GHG for South America.
• Equipped with supercomputers SX-4/8A and

• These supercomputers are capable of processing
  up to 16 and 768 billion floating decimal point
  arithmetic operations per second, respectively.

• Enables CPTEC to provide reliable weather forecasts
  for the entire country and also for South America.

• It is also possible to run global and regional climate
  models to generate climatic scenarios for the 21st
               CPTEC’s Computing System

Computers are fed with information from:
• GOES satellites;
• WMO data network;
• national networks under the responsibility of National Institute of Meteorology
   - INMET, under the Ministry of Agriculture;
• Air Space Control Departament - DEPV, under the Air Force Ministry;
•   Navigation and Hydrography Department - DHN, under the Ministry of the
• state meteorology centers and other international centers.
• satellites SCD-1 and 2 - collect environmental data, also play an important role
   in collection the information necessary to INPE’s meteorological research.
- Observation network called meteorological and hydrological Data Collection
   Platforms - PCDs were implemented in 1996 throughout the country. The
   PCDs are operated jointly by CPTEC and ANEEL, and transmit meteorological
   and hydrological information in real time to a center operated by CPTEC,
   through SCD-1 and 2.
      Modeling and the SNC
 Outcome 2.1:

- downscaling methods for Brazil that
 can be applied to the climate change
 scenarios based on global climate
 models, in order to give more detailed
 projections of climate with a higher
 spatial resolution than that provided by
 a global climate model.
          Modeling and the SNC
1) analyze climate change scenarios for South America
   based on global climate change models from the IPCC-
   Data Distribution Center (IPCC-DDC) for different SRES
   scenarios (provided by the IPCC-DDC);
2) develop and improve the regional Eta/CPTEC model;
3) develop and analyze climate-change downscaled scenarios
   for Brazil, making use of the new super computer being
   installed at the Center for Weather Forecasting and
   Climate Studies – CPTEC;
4) enable the specialists of the CPTEC/INPE (National
   Institute for Space Research) to develop capacity for
   climate modeling on longer time scales, and to develop
   capacity building in V&A.
• Brazil and GEF

• GEF – under the SNC

• Regional or National project ?

• Participation of South American countries in the
  future results of the Eta/CPTEC model activities.

• Strenghtnening capacity – regional training
     Regional modeling
• Invited Countries :
           »   Argentina;
           »   Bolivia;
           »   Chile;
           »   Colombia;
           »   Ecuador;
           »   Paraguay;
           »   Perú;
           »   Uruguay.
           »   Venezuela (?).
• Sent to:
              » Señor Lic. Hernán Carlino
                (Coordinador Unidad de Cambio Climático -
                 Secretaria de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sustentable,
                 Ministerio de Salud y Ambiente)

      • Experts:
              » Dr. Mario Nunez – CIMA (Centro de Investigación
                del Mar y Atmósfera) – Universidad de Buenos
                Aires (UBA)
              » Dr. Carolina Vera – CIMA (Centro de Investigación
                del Mar y Atmósfera) – Universidad de Buenos
                Aires (UBA)
              » Dr. Vicente Barros – CIMA (Centro de
                Investigación del Mar y Atmósfera) – Universidad
                de Buenos Aires (UBA)
• Sent to:
             » Señor Oscar Paz Rada
              (Coordinador General del Programa Nacional de
               Cambios Climáticos - Viceministerio de Recursos
               Naturales y Medio Ambiente)

      • Expert:
             » Ing. Carlos Diaz Escóbar (Director Nacional de
               Meteorología e Hidrología)
             » Ing. Miguel Angel Ontiveros - Enlace PNCC
               (Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología –
             » Ing. Gladis Tesoro Michel - Enlace PNCC (Servicio
               Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología –
             » Ing. Magali García Cárdenas (Responsable del Plan
               Nacional de Adaptación – Programa Nacional de
               Cambios Climáticos)
• Sent to:
             » Señora Marcela Main (Comisión Nacional del
               Medio Ambiente (CONAMA) - Ministerio
               Secretaría General de Presidencia)

      • Expert:
             » Dr. Maisa Rojas – Universidad de Chile.
• Sent to:
             » A Señora María Andrea Albán Durán
              (Coordinadora de Asuntos Ambientales - Ministerio
               de Relaciones Exteriores)
     • Experts:
             » Maximiliano Henriquez Daza - Subdirector de
               Meteorología (Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología
               y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM))
             » María Constanza Martínez - Profesional
               Especializado (Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología
               y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM))
             » Franklin Ruiz Murcia - Investigador Científico
               (Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios
               Ambientales (IDEAM))
• Sent to:
             » Señor Julio Cornejo Vargas
              (Coordinador de la Unidad de Cambios Climáticos -
               Ministerio del Ambiente)

     • Experts:
             » Dr. Juan Palácios – INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de
               Meteorología y Hidrología)
             » Dr. Laureano Andrade – INAMHI (Instituto
               Nacional de Meteorología y Hidrología)
             » Dr. Enrique Palacios – INAMHI (Instituto Nacional
               de Meteorología y Hidrología)
             » Dr. Jose Luis Santos – CIIFEN (Centro de
               Investigaciones sobre el Fenómeno El Niño)
             » Dr. Remigio Galarraga – Escuela Nacional
               Politécnica en Quito
• Sent to:
             » Señora Lilian Portillo
              (Directora - Secretaría del Ambiente (SEAM))

     • Experts:
             » Dr. Ing. Julian Baez – DHN (Dirección de
               Hidrología y Meteorología).
             » Dr. Ing. Genaro Coronel – Universidad Nacional de
• Sent to:
             » Señor Luis Santos
               (Coordinador Técnico de la Unidad de Cambio
               Climático - Ministerio de Vivienda,
               Ordenamiento Territorial y Medio Ambiente )

     • Experts:
             » Dr. Ing. Mario Bidegain – DNM (Dirección
               Nacional de Meteorología).
             » Dr. Rafael Terra – Universidad de la Republica.
CPTEC Main Researchers

     » Dr. Jose A. Marengo,
       CPTEC/INPE- Project

     » Dr. Carlos A. Nobre,

     » Dra. Sin Chan Chou,
• Brazil and GEF

• GEF – under the SNC

• Regional or National project ?

• Participation of South American countries in the
  future results of the Eta/CPTEC model activities.

• Strenghtnening capacity – regional training
Results and Products Envisaged
              V&A Strategy
• develop a preliminary analysis of the impacts associated to
  climate change in key areas in accordance with Brazilian
  national circumstances, mainly in those areas that vulnerability
  is influenced by physical, social and economic factors.
• The initial goal is to analyze areas considered to be
  strategically relevant, where the impacts associated to climate
  change can be important to Brazil, and that could be studied
  independently while Brazilian future climate scenarios have not
  been concluded.
• This strategy would correspond to the steps “Assessing current
  vulnerability” and “Assessing future climate risks” of the
  Adaptation Policy Framework of the UNDP/GEF.
• However, further development of some results of this Outcome
  will depend on future results achieved in developing climate
  regional models, which will provide more reliable scenarios for
  South America, in respect to the impacts of climate change
  either on mean surface temperature or on precipitation patterns.
           Priority Studies
•   Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Health Sector (including
    one activity: study the vulnerability to climate related diseases - such as
    malaria, leishmaniasis and cholera - and adaptation measures);
•   Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Energy Sector
    (including one activity: evaluate the vulnerability of the power sector and
    possible adaptation measures);
•   Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation related to Water Resources,
    Floods and Desertification (including one activity: estimate the
    biophysical impacts of climate change on hydrologic resources in terms of
    water quantity – annual and seasonal distribution);
•   Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Agriculture (including
    one activity: study of the possible effects of climate change on the
    Brazilian agricultural sector);
•   Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Coastal Zone
    Management (including one activity: analyze the overall sea level rise in
    Brazil as a consequence of climate change);
•   Report on Vulnerability and Biodiversity (including one activity: analyze
    the climate change effects on selected biodiversity aspects in Brazil, which
    is coral’s photo symbiotic organisms – coral bleaching)
      Priority Studies

• Coordination between the elaboration of the
  Regional modeling of Climate and Climate
  Change Scenarios and the vulnerability and
  adaptation research and studies concerning
  strategic sectors that are vulnerable to the
  impacts associated with climate change in
Eventos extremos anuales de lluvia (izquierda) y de temperatura (derecha) para la
América del Sur al sur de 10o S, para el escenário A2, período 2071-2100, en
relacción al clima actual (1961-90). Los escenários fueran derivados del modelo
regional HadRM3.
 CPTEC Homepage
      Muchas Gracias!
       Thank you !

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