FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2009, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT Timothy Winters / Ian Thomas Service Sector Statistics Division (301) 763-2713 CB09-154
ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES September 2009
Special Notice – Beginning with the December 11, 2009 release for November 2009, estimates in this release will be based on a new sample. A new sample for the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey is selected about once every two and a half years. For further information on the sample revision, see our website at http://www.census.gov/retail. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $344.7 billion, a decrease of 1.5 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 5.7 percent (±0.7%) below September 2008. Total sales for the July through September 2009 period were down 6.6 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The July to August 2009 percent change was revised from +2.7 percent (±0.5%) to +2.2 percent (±0.2%). Retail trade sales were down 1.7 percent (±0.7%) from August 2009 and 6.4 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 25.3 percent (±1.3%) from September 2008 and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were down 13.0 percent (±2.0%) from last year. The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
From Previous M onth
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10
From Previous Year
July Total
August Ex Auto Auto
September Gen Mer
Total
Ex Auto
Auto
Gen Mer
The Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for October is scheduled to be released November 16, 2009 at 8:30 a.m. EST. For information, visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at . This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s STAT-USA (202-482-1986). * The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.
Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)
Not Adjusted NAICS code
1
Adjusted2 2008 Jul. (r) Sep. Aug. Sep.3 (a) 2009 Aug. (p)
349,885 287,120 311,611 93,458 62,765 56,320 (NA) (NA) 7,721 (NA) (NA) 8,283 6,516 1,767 23,399 19,514 49,324 43,934 3,504 21,115 17,569 31,077
Kind of Business
9 Month Total
% Chg.
2009 Sep.3 (a)
333,360 277,506 295,813 (*) 55,854 49,249 (*) (*) 7,830 (*) (*) 7,413 (*) (*) 23,281 (*) 48,213 43,081 (*) 20,569 (*) 31,905
2008 Jul. (r)
342,489 284,270 304,450 92,532 58,219 51,784 (NA) (NA) 7,783 (NA) (NA) 8,240 6,460 1,780 23,679 19,687 48,949 43,683 3,447 21,012 17,509 29,668
2009 Retail & food services, total ……………………………….
3,041,924
2008
-8.8 -7.0 -9.9 (*) -16.2 -17.8 (*) (*) -12.7 (*) (*) -9.9 (*) (*) -12.2 (*) 0.0 -0.4 (*) 3.0 (*) -31.7
Aug. (p)
360,209 291,655 320,519 95,211 68,554 61,896 50,099 6,658 8,014 4,394 3,620 8,128 6,425 1,703 23,407 20,256 49,884 44,505 3,525 20,672 17,112 34,123
Sep. (r)
365,399 303,389 327,273 95,095 62,010 55,465 (NA) (NA) 8,371 (NA) (NA) 9,176 7,320 1,856 26,845 22,565 49,441 44,245 3,484 20,565 17,115 42,070
Aug. (r)
371,311 306,500 333,356 97,192 64,811 58,268 (NA) (NA) 8,724 (NA) (NA) 9,323 7,421 1,902 27,113 22,827 49,749 44,549 3,500 20,556 16,979 42,477
354,316 289,465 314,603 89,222 64,851 57,998 45,640 6,853 8,016 4,250 3,766 7,740 6,079 1,661 26,261 21,990 50,823 45,299 3,692 20,823 17,386 33,466
352,554 291,226 315,534 86,587 61,328 54,744 44,022 6,584 8,338 4,459 3,879 8,226 6,522 1,704 26,895 23,445 47,664 42,741 3,303 19,907 16,567 42,785
384,798 344,688 314,306 288,452 344,528 306,336 99,918 (*) 70,492 63,687 50,978 6,805 9,143 5,007 4,136 9,199 7,354 1,845 27,185 23,786 50,775 45,440 3,647 20,165 16,588 46,640 56,236 49,696 (NA) (NA) 7,830 (NA) (NA) 8,283 (*) (*) 23,342 (*) 49,662 44,322 (*) 21,293 (*) 31,433
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) … 2,510,162 Retail …..……………………………. 2,697,517 (*) GAFO4………………………....……...……...………….. Motor vehicle & parts dealers ……. 531,762 Auto & other motor veh. dealers . 472,895 New car dealers ………………. (*) Auto parts, acc. & tire stores…… (*) Furniture & home furn. stores …… Furniture stores ………………….. Home furnishings stores ………..
68,818 (*) (*)
441 4411, 4412 44111
4413
442 4421 4422 443 44311, 13 44312 444 4441 445 4451 4453 446 44611 447 448
Electronics & appliance stores …… 71,048 Appl., T.V. & camera……………… (*) Computer & software stores……. (*) Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers……………………. Building mat. & sup. dealers …… Food & beverage stores……………. Grocery stores ………………….. Beer, wine & liquor stores ……… Health & personal care stores ……. Pharmacies & drug stores ……… Gasoline stations …………………… Clothing & clothing accessories stores …………………………….….. Men's clothing stores …………… Women's clothing stores ……….. Family clothing stores …………… Shoe stores ……………………… Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores………………………… General merchandise stores………. Department stores (ex. L.D.)…….. Department stores (incl. L.D.)5…… Other general merch. stores…. .. Warehouse clubs & supercenters…………………. All oth. gen. merch. stores…… Miscellaneous store retailers …….. Nonstore retailers ………………….. Elect. shopping & m/o houses …. Food services & drinking places …
219,849 (*) 436,913 391,385 (*) 187,432 (*) 265,172
144,310 (*) (*) (*) (*)
-5.9 (*) (*) (*) (*)
15,868 (*) (*) (*) (*)
17,937 663 2,771 7,262 2,755
16,324 695 2,627 6,625 2,084
15,929 729 2,984 6,102 1,948
19,049 749 3,069 7,562 2,878
17,477 (*) (*) (NA) (*)
17,392 (S) 2,889 (NA) 2,218
17,208 (S) 2,868 (NA) 2,146
17,713 (S) 3,105 (NA) 2,162
18,443 (S) 3,180 (NA) 2,314
44811 44812 44814 4482 451
60,960 420,608 127,871 (*) (*) (*) (*) 83,248 207,397 (*) 344,407
-1.9 -0.8 -7.0 (*) (*) (*) (*) -4.9 -4.3 (*) 1.1
6,904 45,303 13,691 (*) (*) (*) (*) 9,275 23,398 (*) 37,547
8,275 49,437 15,442 15,840 33,995 30,355 3,640 9,434 22,654 16,800 39,690
6,755 47,336 14,177 14,546 33,159 29,449 3,710 9,485 22,723 16,660 39,713
6,710 44,179 13,958 14,407 30,221 26,842 3,379 9,686 23,887 16,618 37,020
8,498 50,374 16,507 17,009 33,867 30,276 3,591 9,899 23,109 16,185 40,270
7,298 50,013 15,656 (*) (*) (*) (*) 9,317 24,152 (*) 38,352
7,291 49,573 15,592 (NA) 33,981 30,054 3,927 9,498 24,173 17,518 38,274
7,163 48,966 15,419 (NA) 33,547 29,686 3,861 9,413 24,150 17,336 38,039
7,154 49,453 16,262 (NA) 33,191 29,432 3,759 9,752 24,723 16,905 38,126
7,370 50,076 16,571 (NA) 33,505 29,741 3,764 9,779 24,935 16,930 37,955
452 4521 4521 4529 45291 45299 453 454 4541 722
(*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate
(1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/retail (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/retail
Table 2. Estimated Change in Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Percent Change1
Sep. 2009 Advance from -Aug. 2009 (p) Sep. 2008 (r) Aug. 2009 Preliminary from -Jul. 2009 (r) Aug. 2008 (r) Jul. 2009 through Sep. 2009 from -Apr. 2009 Jul. 2008 through through Jun. 2009 Sep. 2008
NAICS code
Kind of Business
Retail & food services, total ………………………………..
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) …. Retail ………………………..……….
441 4411, 4412 442 443 444
-1.5
0.5 -1.7 -10.4 -11.8 1.4 0.0 -0.2 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.9 0.4 -1.9 -0.1 0.2
-5.7
-4.9 -6.4 -9.3 -10.4 -6.5 -9.7 -13.0 0.4 0.2 3.5 -25.3 -1.3 2.0 1.1 -3.7 -4.5 -2.3 0.6
2.2
1.0 2.4 7.8 8.8 -0.8 0.5 -1.2 0.8 0.6 0.5 4.7 1.1 1.8 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.6
-5.8
-6.3 -6.5 -3.2 -3.3 -11.5 -11.2 -13.7 -0.9 -1.4 2.7 -26.8 -5.7 -1.1 -1.0 -5.9 -2.9 -3.1 0.8
1.6
0.9 1.8 5.0 5.7 -0.3 -1.0 -2.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 7.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 -0.4 -1.0 1.3 0.0
-6.6
-6.6 -7.5 -6.7 -7.4 -10.1 -11.8 -13.7 -0.5 -0.8 2.9 -28.5 -4.8 -1.0 -1.2 -6.6 -4.9 -3.6 0.5
Motor vehicle & parts dealers ……… Auto & other motor veh. dealers … Furniture & home furn. stores ……… Electronics & appliance stores ……. Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers……………………… Food & beverage stores……………… Grocery stores ……………………. Health & personal care stores ……… Gasoline stations ……………………. Clothing & clothing accessories stores ……………………….………… Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores…………………………. General merchandise stores………… Department stores (ex. L.D.)……… Miscellaneous store retailers ……… Nonstore retailers ……………………. Food services & drinking places …..
(r) Revised estimate
445 4451 446 447 448
451
452 4521 453 454 722
(p) Preliminary estimate
(1) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/retail.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Survey Description
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/retail.
U.S. Department of Commerce U.S. Census Bureau Washington, D.C. 20233
FIRST-CLASS MAIL POSTAGE & FEES PAID Bureau of the Census PERMIT NO. G-58
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use, $300
Reliability of Estimates
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90 percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is –0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
Table 3.
Estim ated M easures of Sam pling Variability and Revision to Advance Estim ates Sep 2009
M edian standard error (1) for Percent change Previous M o. to Current M o. Previous Qtr. to Current Q tr. Current M o. to sam e M o. Last Yr. Revision for m onthto-m onth change Average revision
(2)
(Estim ates are show n as percents and are based on data from the Advance M onthly Retail T rade Survey and M onthly R etail Trade Survey)
M edian
NAICS Code
Kind of B usiness
CV
(1)
for
Current M o. (% )
M edian absolute revision
441
4411, 4412
442 443 444 445 4451 446 447 448 451 452
4521
453 454 722
Retail & food services, total … … … … … … ..… … … … … … … . T otal (excl. m otor vehicle & parts) .. Retail … ..… … … … … … … … … … .. M otor vehicle & parts dealers … … .. Auto & other m otor veh. dealers . Furniture & hom e furn. stores… … . Electronics & appliance stores … .. Building m aterial & garden eq. &… . supplies dealers… … … … … … … … Food & beverage stores… … … … … . G rocery stores … … … … … … … .. Health & personal care stores … … G asoline stations … … … … … … … .. Clothing & clothing accessories stores … … … … … … … … … … … … .. Sporting goods, hobby, book & m usic stores… … … … … … … … … .. G eneral m erchandise stores… … … . D epartm ent stores (ex. L.D .)… … M iscellaneous store retailers … … .. Nonstore retailers … … … … … … … .. Food services & drinking places ..
0.7 0.7 0.7 2.3 2.7 2.7 1.4 2.6 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.4 2.2 2.8 0.1 0.0 4.0 1.8 2.0
0.3 0.3 0.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 0.6 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.0 0.0 3.3 1.0 0.8
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.5 0.6
0.4 0.3 0.4 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 3.4 1.0 1.4
-0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.6 0.1 0.5
0.1 0.2 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.7
(1)
Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation or holiday or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median revisions are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/retail
(2)