NCEP by jianghongl

VIEWS: 5 PAGES: 26

									National Centers for Environmental Prediction


                                              Fall COPC Meeting
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini                           Suitland, MD
   Director, NCEP
                                            November 14-15, 2007




    “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”
     Overview

• NCEP Overview
• Performance Metrics
• Computer Status
• 2006 Implementations
• Upcoming Implementations
• Plans for New Building

                             2
                             NCEP Review

Deliver analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water,
land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-
based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life
and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for
environmental information.

   EMC - Environmental Modeling Center
   HPC – Hydromet. Prediction Center
   NCO - NCEP Central Operations                                                 CPC
   CPC - Climate Prediction Center                                               EMC
                                                                                 HPC
   OPC - Ocean Prediction Center                                                 NCO
                                                SEC     AWC                      OPC
   SPC – Storm Prediction Center
   SEC – Space Environment Center
                                                       SPC
   TPC – Tropical Prediction Center
   AWC – Aviation Weather Center

                                                                           TPC

Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner
for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.                 3
4
      NCEP: “From the Sun to the Sea”
•   Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts
•   Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Inter-annual
•   El Nino – La Nina Forecast
•   Weather Forecasts to Day 7
•   Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather
•   Aviation Forecasts and Warnings
•   Offshore and High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

-   Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and
    Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather
-   International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts
-   Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
-   Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations                   5
         Space Weather Name Change

   As of October 1, 2007, the former Space
   Environment Center has a new name:

    Space Weather Prediction Center

Need to solidify relative roles
with regard to NOAA and DoD,
especially for operational civilian
prediction functions/backup and
access to numerical model based
prediction.
                                             6
                                       Space Weather Prediction Center
                                                                    Evolving Customer Base
                                                                                                                  Commercial Space Transportation

 Growth of Space Weather                                                                                  Airline Polar Flights
                                                                                                         Microchip technology

 Customers
                                                                                         Precision Guided Munitions
                                                                                  Cell phones
                                                                                 Atomic Clock
                                                                               Satellite Operations
                                                                               Carbon Dating experiments
 NOAA Space Weather                                                          GPS Navigation

 Prediction Center
                                                                     Ozone Measurements
                                                                  Aircraft Radiation Hazard
                                                                  Commercial TV Relays
                                                            Communications Satellite Orientation
                                                            Spacecraft Charging
                                                            Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote
                                                            Sensing Instrument Damage
                                                           Geophysical Exploration.
                                                          Pipeline Operations
                                                         Anti-Submarine Detection
                                                        Satellite Power Arrays
                                                       Power Distribution
                                                       Long-Range Telephone Systems
                                                       Radiation Hazards to Astronauts
                                                     Interplanetary Satellite experiments
                                                    VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN)
                                                    Over the Horizon Radar
                                                    Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites
                                                    Research & Operations Requirements
                                             Satellite Orbit Prediction
                                      Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments
                            Ionospheric Rocket experiments
                          Short-wave Radio Propagation


                 200
                 180
                 160
Sunspot Number




                 140
                 120
                 100
                  80
                  60
                  40
                  20                                                                                                                                7
                   0
                   1940           1950             1960            1970             1980             1990            2000
      Model Performance
Anomaly Correlation - Day-5 - 500 millibar



                                       Northern
                                       Hemisphere




                                       Southern
                                       Hemisphere
                                              8
Product Generation Summary


                                                      Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page
                                            45




                Number of Hits (Millions)
                                            40
                                            35
                                            30
                                            25
      Comms                                 20
      Upgrade
                                            15
                                            10
                                             5
                                             0
                                                 JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL
                                                 01    02     03     04       05     06       07




                                                                                                   9
                Computing Capability
                                                Primary Weather   $13.9 M
                                                Primary Climate   $5.3 M
                                                Backup            $7.2 M
                                                Total:            $26.4 M


Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)

•Receives Over 1.7 Billion Global Observations Daily
•Computational Speed: 13.99 Trillion Calculations/Sec
•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)
•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)
•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)
•Backup in Fairmont, WV; guaranteed 15 min. switch over
•Upgrade Operational January 24, 2007
•Next procurement cycle to begin 2008-2009            10
       Central Computing System

• Scheduled for Fall 2009
• Will shift primary computer operations from
  Gaithersburg, MD to Offutt AFB (AFWA)
• Will also upgrade communication circuits




                                             11
                 2007 Implementations
        Change (Additions)                      Planned       Actual/Change
Global Forecast System (GFS)
   Hybrid Sigma-Pressure GFS                   3rd Qtr FY07 1 May 07
   Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)   4th Qtr FY07 1 May 07
   Analysis
North Amer. Mesoscale (NAM)
   WRF Physics Upgrade                         3rd Qtr FY07
   DGEX Physics upgrade                        3rd Qtr FY07
                                                               2nd Qtr FY08
   WRF model upgrade                           4th Qtr FY07
   Hi-Res Window                               3rd Qtr FY07
Real-Time Mesoscale Anlys. (RTMA)
   RTMA upgrade                                3rd Qtr FY07 1st Qtr FY08
   Extension to OCONUS
                                                                           12
                 2007 Implementations
        Change (Additions)                 Planned         Actual/Change
Short Range Ensemble Forecast
   Bias Correction for Precipitation      4th Qtr FY07 1st Qtr FY08

NAEFS
   Increase U.S. Membership from 15 20 2nd Qtr FY07 27 March 07
   Increase in vertical levels                        nd
                                        4th Qtr FY07 2 Qtr FY08
   New Products                         4th Qtr FY07
Fire Weather
                                                           Undergoing OSIP review
   Reinstate into operations              2nd   Qtr FY07    2nd Qtr FY08

Hurricane Modeling
   Hurricane WRF in parallel operations   3rd Qtr FY07 19 June 07
   Probabilistic Storm Surge              3rd Qtr FY07 12 June 07
                                                                            13
                2007 Implementations
        Change (Additions)                   Planned       Actual/Change
Air Quality Forecast
   Expanded domain to CONUS                3rd Qtr FY07    4th Qtr FY07
Ocean Modeling
       Multi-grid Wave Model               4th Qtr FY07    1st Qtr FY08
       RTOFS/HYCOM assimil. upgrade        3rd Qtr FY07    5 June 2007
       GODAS                               1st Qtr FY08
Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)
   Assimilation of additional data sources  1st Qtr FY08   1st Qtr FY08
   Upgrade radiation, convection, and land-
   sea parameterization


                                                                          14
   2008 Planned Implementations
Model Upgrade                             Planned
Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF)     12/4/07
North American Ensemble Forecast System
                                          12/4/07
(NAEFS)
Climate Forecast System (CFS)             12/18/07
Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) for
                                           1/8/08
Alaska
Regional Ensemble for Olympics            2/11/08

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Bundle     2/21/08

Great Lakes Wave Model                     3/3/08    15
   2008 Planned Implementations
Model Upgrade                             Planned

Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)                  3/25/08
Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) for
                                          3/25/08
Hawaii, Puerto Rico
Global Forecast System (GFS) Bundle       5/5/08

Hurricane WRF Upgrade                     5/30/08
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
                                          6/17/08
upgrade
Wave Ensemble                             6/23/08
                                                    16
   2008 Planned Implementations
Model Upgrade                           Planned
Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)
                                        7/7/08
for Guam

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Bundle   8/11/08

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF)   8/18/08

Air Quality                             9/26/08




                                                  17
                  NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite

                        Climate                               Oceans
                         CFS                Hurricane         HYCOM
                         MOM3                   GFDL
                                                HWRF
                                                              WaveWatch III
   1.7B Obs/Day
     Satellites
      99.9%



                      Global                Regional NAM      Dispersion
                                                WRF NMM
Global Data          Forecast                                 ARL/HYSPLIT
Assimilation         System
                                                              Severe Weather
                                                              WRF NMM/ARW
                                            Short-Range       Workstation WRF
         North American Ensemble          Ensemble Forecast
             Forecast System               WRF: ARW, NMM      Air Quality
        GFS, Canadian Global Model           ETA, RSM
                                                               NAM/CMAQ*             For
                                                                                     eca
                                                                                      st


                                                              Rapid Update
                                                              for Aviation      18
                      NOAH Land Surface Model
                             NCEP Production Suite
                            NCEP ProductionSuite
                 Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems
                 Weather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems
                                                         Version 3.0 April 9, 2004
                                                                                                    Data processing
                                                     Current - 2007
                                                     Current (2007)                                    RUC
               100                                                                                     FIREWX
                                      NAM analys




                                                               GFS analysis
                                                                                                       WAVES
                                                                                                       HUR/HRW
                        GDAS




                80
Percent Used




                                                                                     HUR
                                                                              GFS                      GFSfcst
                               SREF




                                                                                       GENS/NAEFS
                60                                 NAM                                                 GFSanal




                                                                                             RDAS
                                                                                                       GFSens
                40                                                                                     ETAfcst
                                                          AQ
                                                                                                       ETAanal
                20                                       RTOFS                                         SREF
                                                            CFS                                        Air Quality
                 0                                                                                     OCEAN
                     0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00
                                                                                                       Monthly
                                 6 Hour Cycle: Four Times/Day                                          Seasonal
                                                                                                             19
                      Forces for Change
• Increasing emphasis on ensemble approaches
   – Multi-model ensembles
        • SREF
        • NAEFS
        • Climate Forecast System             ESMF-based System
• Entering the NPOESS era
   – More rapid access to           Global/Regional Model Domain
     hyperspectral data                                            Model Region 1
   – GPS soundings
   – Higher resolution surface
     radiance data
• All models run within ESMF
   –   Models run concurrently                                      Model Region 2

   –   Hybrid vertical coordinate
   –   Coupled
   –   Spanning all scales
• Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro,                    20
  climate and ecosystems applications
                           NCEP Production Suite
                 Weather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems
                                                    Version 3.0 April 9, 2004
                                      Next Generation Prototype
                                                                                        Computing factor: 81
                                            Phase 4 - 2015
                                                                                             RUC
                                                                                             Rap Refresh
               100                                                                           FIREWX
                                                                                WAV
                                               SREF                                          WAVES
                                                                                 HUR         HUR/HRW
                80      Reforecast
Percent Used




                                            NAM                                              GFSfcst
                                                                                             Global
                                                                        GENS/NAEFS
                60       CFS                                                                 GFSanal
                                               GFS
                         RTOFS
                         MFS                                                    RTOFS        GFSens
                          AQ     Hydro / NIDIS/FF                         AQ
                40                                                                           ETAfcst
                                                CFS & MFS
                                                                                             ETAanal
                                                                                             Regional
                                          RDAS
                20                                                                           Hydro
                                                                                             SREF
                                                     GDAS                                    Air Quality
                 0                                                                           OCEAN
                     0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00
                                                                                             Monthly
                                6 Hour Cycle: Four Times/Day                                 Seasonal
                                                                                                    21
                NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

• Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF at the University of
  Maryland’s Research Park (M-Square)
• Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and
  visiting scientists
      • 5 NCEP Centers
      • NESDIS research and satellite services
      • OAR Air Resources Laboratory
• Groundbreaking: 13 March 2006
• 40 spaces for visiting
  scientists
      Construction Schedule
                     Date
Construction Start   May 9, 2007

Move Start           Dec 2008

Move Complete        July 2009
                                                                 22
 NOAA Center for Weather
  and Climate Prediction




Construction photographs –
     November, 2007




                   23
          NOAA Center
                for
        Weather and Climate
            Prediction
NCWCP




              NORTH
                      24
   NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction




                                       U Md




         Silver Spring




                                               NCWCP




                                                    25
1 Mile
                              Summary
• NCEP sustaining an aggressive schedule for updating all
  forecast components from models to service centers

• Need to continue to maximize cooperation between OPCs
   – ConOps
   – NUOPC - models
   – Backup!

• Many science-service opportunities/challenges exist
   – Must ensure that backup / COOP relationships are solidified

• Highest Priority Items:
   – Moving NCEP to new building and moving primary CCS to AFWA
       • will pose many challenges over the next 1-2 years.
                                                                   26

								
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