Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D. Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 582-5201
FOR RELEASE: NOVEMBER 8, 2007
GIULIANI, CLINTON NECK AND NECK IN CONNECTICUT, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; FAVORITE SON DODD SHOULD DROP OUT, VOTERS SAY 3-1
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani are locked in a neck and neck presidential race in Connecticut, with 45 percent for Sen. Clinton and 44 percent for Giuliani, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to 44 percent for Clinton and 42 percent for Giuliani in an October 17 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In other possible presidential matchups: Illinois Sen. Barack Obama ties Giuliani 43 – 43 percent; Giuliani tops former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards 46 – 41 percent; Clinton beats Arizona Sen. John McCain 47 – 41 percent; Clinton tops former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson 53 – 31 percent; Clinton beats former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 51 – 34 percent. In a Democratic primary, Clinton leads Obama 45 – 19 percent, followed by Edwards with 7 percent and Sen. Chris Dodd with 5 percent. Giuliani leads the Republican pack with 41 percent, followed by 13 percent for Romney, 12 percent for McCain and 7 percent for Thompson. “Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead in the Connecticut Democratic primary and Sen. Barack Obama is making no progress closing the gap. But Mayor Giuliani is running even with any of the top Democratic contenders, moving Connecticut from Democratic blue to swing state purple at this point,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.
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Quinnipiac University Poll/November 8, 2007 – page 2 By a 52 – 27 percent margin, Connecticut voters have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. Clinton gets a 48 – 39 percent favorability. Connecticut voters approve 55 – 31 percent of the job Sen. Christopher Dodd is doing – as a Senator. But voters say 57 – 26 percent that he would not make a good president. Dodd is spending too much time on the presidential campaign trail and not enough time serving as Senator, voters say 55 – 29 percent. And voters say 70 – 21 percent that he should drop out of the presidential race. Even Democrats say 68 – 26 percent that Dodd should drop out. “While Sen. Dodd’s overall approval rating is down 5 points, it is still a healthy 55 percent. But there is a strong feeling that he that he is spending too much time on the campaign trail and that he should get out of the Presidential race,” Dr. Schwartz said. Sen. Joseph Lieberman’s 52 – 38 percent support is little changed in the last six months, even though voters disagree 61 – 31 percent with his support for the war in Iraq. Voters disapprove 71 – 24 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing and disapprove 71 – 22 percent of his handling of the war in Iraq. Voters say 66 – 30 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do. From November 1 – 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,029 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The survey includes 291 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.7 percentage points, and 385 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
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1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Biden Clinton Dodd Edwards Gravel Kucinich Obama Richardson SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 4% 45 5 7 3 19 2 1 14 4% 40 8 6 6 23 5 1 8 4% 48 4 7 2 16 1 1 17
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked) REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.......... Nov 8 Oct 17 May 10 Feb 19 2007 2007 2007 2007 Biden Clark Clinton Dodd Edwards Gore Gravel Kucinich Obama Richardson Vilsack SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 4 na 45 5 7 na 3 19 2 na 1 14 3 na 43 7 8 na 1 16 2 na 2 1 17 2 28 6 8 13 1 20 1 na 2 1 17 2 1 33 8 5 9 na 1 21 1 2 1 16
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2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo and Fred Thompson, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Tot Men Wom Giuliani Huckabee Hunter McCain Paul Romney Tancredo Thompson, F. SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 41% 4 1 12 3 13 7 2 5 13 37% 5 14 6 15 11 3 3 7 46% 2 1 10 10 3 1 7 20
TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, and Fred Thompson, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked) REGISTERED REPUBLICANS........ Nov 8 Oct 17 May 10 Feb 19 2007 2007 2007 2007 Brownback Gilmore Gingrich Giuliani Hagel Huckabee Hunter McCain Pataki Paul Romney Tancredo Thompson, F. Thompson, T. SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA na na na 41 na 4 1 12 na 3 13 7 na 2 5 13 na na 42 na 2 14 na 3 9 10 na 1 4 15 5 36 15 1 2 9 7 1 3 3 17 1% 5 43 2 1 1 27 na 4 na 3 12
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3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton Giuliani SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 45% 44 1 3 8 5% 89 1 4 83% 11 2 4 41% 43 2 4 10 36% 53 2 4 5 52% 36 1 2 9
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote? Nov 8 2007 Clinton Giuliani SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 45 44 1 3 8 Oct 17 2007 44 42 2 3 9 May 10 2007 42 48 1 2 7 Feb 19 2007 46 44 1 2 7
4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama Giuliani SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 43% 43 2 3 9 11% 83 1 1 5 76% 16 2 1 5 40% 42 2 6 11 39% 49 3 4 6 47% 39 1 2 11
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote? Nov 8 2007 Obama Giuliani SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 43 43 2 3 9 May 10 2007 42 44 1 2 10
5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Edwards Giuliani SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 41% 46 1 4 9 8% 86 2 4 72% 19 2 7 39% 43 1 6 10 35% 52 2 6 6 46% 41 1 2 11
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6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 47% 41 2 3 7 7% 86 4 1 2 84% 8 3 5 44% 41 2 5 9 38% 51 3 5 3 54% 33 1 2 10
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? Nov 8 2007 Clinton McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 47 41 2 3 7 May 10 2007 47 40 1 3 9 Feb 19 2007 48 40 1 2 9
7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton Thompson SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 53% 31 1 5 10 13% 74 2 2 9 89% 4 3 4 50% 28 2 7 13 44% 42 1 6 8 61% 23 1 4 11
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote? Nov 8 2007 Clinton Thompson SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 53 31 1 5 10 May 10 2007 49 33 1 3 13
8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton Romney SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 51% 34 2 5 8 12% 76 4 2 5 87% 4 3 5 48% 32 2 8 10 43% 44 2 6 5 58% 25 2 3 11
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TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? Nov 8 2007 Clinton Romney SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 51 34 2 5 8 Feb 19 2007 55 27 2 4 12
9. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 48% 39 10 4 Rep 15% 72 9 3 Dem 81% 10 8 2 Ind 44% 42 11 3 Men 38% 48 11 3 Wom 56% 30 10 4
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Nov 8 2007 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 48 39 10 4 May 10 2007 49 42 7 2 Feb 19 2007 53 36 8 3
10. Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 52% 27 17 4 Rep 77% 11 8 3 Dem 37% 40 21 2 Ind 50% 29 18 4 Men 56% 27 13 4 Wom 49% 27 20 4
TREND: Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Nov 8 2007 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 52 27 17 4 May 10 2007 61 25 12 2 Feb 19 2007 61 22 14 2
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12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve Disapprove DK/NA 52% 38 9 72% 20 8 37% 54 9 51% 39 10 50% 43 7 55% 34 11
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 8 May 10 Feb 19 Aug 17 Jul 20 Sep 21 Jul 31 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 2000 2003 Approve Disapprove DK/NA 52 38 9 53 39 8 52 40 7 55 40 6 55 35 10 80 14 6 51 33 17
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Dodd is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Approve Disapprove DK/NA 55% 31 15 Rep 37% 52 11 Dem 76% 14 10 Ind 50% 32 18 Men 48% 38 14 Wom 61% 24 15
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Dodd is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also 52% on 2/14/2002) Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 8 May 10 Feb 19 Aug 17 Jul 20 Apr 19 May 1 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 2001 2003 * Approve Disapprove DK/NA 55 31 15 60 26 14 60 25 15 57 27 16 57 25 19 71 16 13 52 16 31
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve Disapprove DK/NA 24% 71 5 58% 37 5 3% 94 3 19% 77 4 28% 69 3 20% 74 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? (* Also 24% 5/10/07, 2/19/07 & 6/8/06) Highest Approve Dec 19 2001 87 10 2 Lowest Approve Nov 8 2007* 24 71 5
Nov 8 2007 Approve Disapprove DK/NA 24 71 5
May 10 2007 24 72 4
Feb 19 2007 24 72 5
Aug 17 2006 29 67 4
Jul 20 2006 27 68 5
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39. Do you think Chris Dodd would make a good President or not? Tot Yes No DK/NA TREND: 26% 57 17 Rep 16% 75 9 Dem 40% 41 19 Ind 21% 60 19 Men 26% 64 11 Wom 26% 52 22
Do you think Chris Dodd would make a good President or not? Nov 8 2007 Feb 19 2007 30 49 22
Yes No DK/NA
26 57 17
40. Chris Dodd has never gotten above one percent in the national presidential primary polls. Do you think it is time for him to drop out of the presidential race? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes/drop out No/Should not DK/NA 70% 21 9 75% 19 6 68% 26 6 70% 19 11 72% 21 7 69% 22 10
41. Do you think Chris Dodd is spending too much time running for President and not enough time being Senator from Connecticut? Tot Yes No DK/NA 55% 29 16 Rep 61% 25 14 Dem 48% 33 19 Ind 59% 28 13 Men 56% 31 13 Wom 54% 27 20
42. Did you vote for Senator in 2006, did something prevent you from voting, or did you choose not to vote for Senator in 2006? Tot Voted Didn't vote COULDN'T/INELIG DK/NA 76% 17 3 4 Rep 80% 13 2 5 Dem 76% 17 4 2 Ind 75% 18 2 5 Men 77% 17 3 3 Wom 74% 17 3 5
43. (If voted in Senate race Q42) Did you vote for Joe Lieberman the independent, Ned Lamont the Democrat, or Alan Schlesinger the Republican? VOTED FOR SENATOR IN 2006.................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lieberman Lamont Schlesinger DIDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 52% 31 9 1 7 66% 6 21 6 38% 54 2 2 4 57% 29 6 1 7 51% 32 10 1 7 53% 31 8 1 7
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44. (If Lieberman Q43) If you had a chance to vote again today, would you still vote for Joe Lieberman for Senator, or would you vote for someone else? VOTED FOR LIEBERMAN IN 2006................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes/Lieberman No/Someone else DK/NA 78% 15 7 86% 10 4 69% 20 11 78% 16 6 82% 14 5 75% 16 9
45. (If “No” Q44)Is the reason you are no longer voting for Senator Lieberman because of his stand on the Iraq war or something else? (*Additional caution should be taken when interpreting the findings of group because of the larger margin of error.) VOTED FOR LIEBERMAN IN 2006 *Tot Iraq war Something else DK/NA 58% 41 1
46. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve Disapprove DK/NA 22% 71 7 52% 38 9 4% 93 3 18% 75 7 29% 66 6 17% 75 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 8 May 10 Feb 19 Aug 17 Jul 20 Oct 10 May 10 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 2003 2007 Approve Disapprove DK/NA 22 71 7 20 77 3 22 74 4 26 70 4 25 70 4 41 55 4 20 77 3
47. As you may know, Senator Lieberman is a strong supporter of the war in Iraq. Do you agree or disagree with Senator Lieberman's position on the war in Iraq? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Agree Disagree DK/NA 31% 61 8 63% 29 8 9% 84 7 31% 64 5 39% 55 6 24% 66 9
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TREND: As you may know, Senator Lieberman is a strong supporter of the war in Iraq. Do you agree or disagree with Senator Lieberman's position on the war in Iraq? Nov 8 Aug 17 Jul 20 Jan 11 2007 2006 2006 2006 Agree 31 37 35 41 Disagree 61 57 58 51 DK/NA 8 5 7 8 48. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? Tot Right thing Wrong thing DK/NA 30% 66 5 Rep 59% 33 9 Dem 8% 90 2 Ind 28% 67 5 Men 35% 62 3 Wom 25% 69 6
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? (* Also 30% on 5/10/07 & 2/19/07) Highest Right Aug 19 2004 43 49 8 Lowest Right Nov 8 2007* 30 66 5
Nov 8 2007 Right thing Wrong thing DK/NA 30 66 5
May 10 2007 30 65 4
Feb 19 2007 30 65 5
Aug 17 2006 33 62 5
Jul 20 2006 31 63 5
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