Clay F. Richards, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute (203) 582-5201 Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: FEBRUARY 27, 2008
YOUNG VOTERS HELP OBAMA NARROW GAP IN PENNSYLVANIA, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; McCAIN RUNS NECK AND NECK AGAINST EITHER DEMOCRAT
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, surging among younger voters, has cut Sen. Hillary Clinton’s lead among Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters to 6 points, 49 – 43 percent, after trailing by 16 points just two weeks ago, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 52 – 36 percent lead for Sen. Clinton February 14. In a general election matchup, Sen. Clinton has 44 percent to 42 percent of registered voters for Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican front-runner. Sen. Obama has 42 percent to Sen. McCain’s 40 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Among likely Democratic primary voters, women back Clinton 53 – 39 percent, while men back Obama 50 – 43 percent; white voters go with Clinton 56 – 37 percent while black voters support Obama 69 – 23 percent. Democrats with a college degree favor Obama 53 – 41 percent, while voters without a degree back Clinton 52 – 39 percent. This biggest movement is among younger voters who went from 52 – 41 percent for Clinton February 14 to 58 – 41 percent for Obama today, a shift of 28 points. “Sen. Obama is closing in fast on Sen. Clinton in Pennsylvania, but it will probably be the voters in Ohio and Texas who decide what role the Keystone primary will play in the 2008 presidential election. If Sen. Clinton survives next week to fight another day, Pennsylvania could become the last battleground of the long Democratic contest. But an Obama win in Texas and Ohio would make it difficult for Clinton to halt her rival’s momentum,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. -more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/February 27, 2008 – page 2 “Sen. John McCain is within striking distance of either Democratic candidate at this time in Pennsylvania, an indication that the likely Republican nominee, particularly popular in a state with a large veteran population, will make the Keystone State a battleground in the November election,” Richards added. By a 50 – 27 percent margin, Pennsylvania voters have a favorable opinion of McCain. Clinton gets a split 46 – 44 percent favorability rating while Obama gets a 49 – 26 percent score. Bush Approval Pennsylvania voters disapprove 65 – 30 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, one of his lowest scores ever in the state. Going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, voters say 59 – 35 percent. The U.S. economy is in a recession, voters say 60 – 35 percent, but 60 percent say their personal finances are “excellent” or “good,” while 39 percent say their finances are “not so good” or “poor.” From February 21 – 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,872 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percentage points. The survey includes 506 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
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1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? *This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS................... Wht Wht Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom Clinton Obama SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 49% 43 1 7 Age 18-44 Clinton Obama SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 41% 58 1 43% 50 2 4 Age 45+ 52% 39 1 8 53% 39 9 56% 37 1 7 23% 69 8 48% 45 2 6 61% 31 8
No col College degree degree 52% 39 1 8 41% 53 1 5
TREND: If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? *This table includes Leaners. LIKELY DP VOTERS Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 Clinton Obama SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 49 43 1 7 52 36 1 11
1a.(If express choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY DP VOTERS..... Tot Clinton Obama Made up Might change DK/NA 75% 24 1 74% 25 1 76% 24 1
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2. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Clinton McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 44% 42 2 4 8 Alghny Clinton McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 43% 48 2 2 5 6% 81 2 4 7 Philly 74% 16 1 2 7 80% 9 1 2 8 NthEst 43% 40 1 6 10 40% 42 3 7 9 SthEst 46% 42 1 3 7 37% 48 2 5 8 NthWst 31% 50 3 4 13 50% 36 1 4 9 SthWst 46% 42 2 3 7 80% 12 1 1 5 Cntrl 33% 49 2 6 10
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? Feb 27 2008 Clinton McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 44 42 2 4 8 Feb 14 2008 46 40 2 3 9 Dec 5 2007 43 43 3 3 8 Nov 8 2007 45 43 1 4 7 Oct 10 2007 48 41 2 4 5 Aug 23 2007 47 41 2 3 7 Jun 27 2007 46 42 3 3 6
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 42% 40 1 4 12 Alghny Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 49% 39 3 1 8 13% 75 1 3 8 Philly 70% 17 1 3 9 69% 15 1 4 10 NthEst 34% 43 1 6 16 41% 36 2 5 17 SthEst 47% 38 1 2 12 39% 45 2 4 10 NthWst 35% 41 1 6 16 44% 36 1 4 14 SthWst 36% 45 2 5 12 72% 15 2 3 8 Cntrl 31% 49 1 6 13
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TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? Feb 27 2008 Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 42 40 1 4 12 Feb 14 2008 42 41 1 4 11 Oct 10 2007 45 41 2 4 8 Aug 23 2007 43 40 3 5 11 Jun 27 2007 44 39 2 4 11 May 31 2007 41 42 1 5 11 Apr 26 2007 43 41 2 2 13
4. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 46% 44 7 3 Alghny Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 45% 47 7 1 15% 77 5 3 Philly 68% 23 7 2 74% 15 9 3 NthEst 47% 44 8 1 45% 44 7 3 SthEst 46% 45 6 3 38% 52 7 3 NthWst 35% 51 10 4 53% 36 8 3 SthWst 49% 39 7 5 75% 18 5 2 Cntrl 38% 49 7 5
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Feb 27 2008 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 46 44 7 3 Dec 5 2007 49 43 6 2 Nov 8 2007 47 43 8 2 Oct 10 2007 51 42 4 3 Aug 23 2007 51 41 6 2 Aug 8 2007 51 40 5 3 Jun 27 2007 48 42 7 3
5. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 49% 26 22 2 Alghny Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 52% 24 22 2 31% 44 23 2 Philly 73% 10 15 2 63% 16 19 2 NthEst 46% 27 25 2 53% 19 26 2 SthEst 54% 26 18 2 48% 31 20 2 NthWst 44% 28 26 2 50% 23 25 3 SthWst 33% 34 30 2 67% 15 16 2 Cntrl 43% 30 24 3
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TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Feb 27 2008 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 49 26 22 2 Dec 5 2007 47 23 27 3 Oct 10 2007 48 22 28 2 Aug 23 2007 46 23 29 2 Aug 8 2007 47 23 27 2 Jun 27 2007 46 20 33 2 May 31 2007 44 19 34 3
6. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 50% 27 20 3 Alghny Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 50% 27 21 2 70% 17 11 2 Philly 34% 34 31 1 33% 37 27 3 NthEst 56% 25 13 6 53% 23 21 4 SthEst 54% 26 16 3 55% 27 14 3 NthWst 46% 28 21 4 45% 26 25 4 SthWst 50% 30 17 4 35% 44 18 3 Cntrl 54% 22 21 3
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Feb 27 Dec 5 Oct 10 Aug 23 Aug 8 Jun 27 May 31 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 50 27 20 3 45 27 25 3 43 26 29 2 46 30 20 4 37 34 25 3 45 28 25 3 44 28 25 2
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Approve Disapprove DK/NA 30% 65 5 Alghny Approve Disapprove DK/NA 36% 59 4 67% 27 6 Philly 8% 90 2 6% 91 3 NthEst 29% 67 4 20% 76 4 SthEst 29% 66 5 33% 63 3 NthWst 37% 56 6 27% 67 6 SthWst 27% 69 4 5% 93 2 Cntrl 37% 57 6
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TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? * also 29% on 5/31/07 Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 27 Feb 14 Nov 8 Aug 23 May 31 Jun 5 Nov 8 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2002 2007* Approve Disapprove DK/NA 30 65 5 30 64 6 29 66 5 30 67 3 29 67 4 73 21 6 29 66 5
18. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as - Excellent, good, not so good, or poor? LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Excellent Good Not so good Poor DK/NA 1% 19 44 35 1 Alghny Excellent Good Not so good Poor DK/NA 2% 21 42 35 3% 34 44 18 1 Philly 1% 7 52 39 1 9 44 47 1 NthEst 1% 21 43 34 2 15 43 40 2 SthEst 1% 23 46 30 1 2% 25 41 32 1 NthWst 1% 20 40 39 1 14 46 38 1 SthWst 21 35 44 7 45 47 Cntrl 1% 19 45 33 2
TREND: Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as Excellent, good, not so good, or poor? Feb 27 2008 Excellent Good Not so good Poor DK/NA 1 19 44 35 1 Sep 28 2004 2 34 39 23 1 Sep 16 2004 3 36 39 22 1 Aug 18 2004 2 34 44 20 1 Jul 14 2004 3 37 41 18 1
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19. Would you describe your own personal financial situation as - Excellent, good, not so good, or poor? LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Excellent Good Not so good Poor DK/NA 7% 53 27 12 2 Alghny Excellent Good Not so good Poor DK/NA 6% 55 28 10 1 10% 62 20 5 2 Philly 5% 40 37 16 2 5% 48 30 15 2 NthEst 4% 55 27 13 7% 49 30 14 1 SthEst 9% 59 20 8 3 8% 56 23 11 1 NthWst 5% 57 19 17 2 6% 50 30 12 2 SthWst 8% 50 26 15 1 6% 50 29 13 2 Cntrl 9% 52 29 9 1
20. During the next 12 months, do you think your own personal financial situation will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Get better Get worse Stay the same DK/NA 29% 12 58 2 Alghny Get better Get worse Stay the same DK/NA 30% 7 62 1 31% 10 58 1 Philly 39% 12 48 1 27% 11 60 2 NthEst 25% 17 56 2 29% 13 58 1 SthEst 30% 8 59 2 33% 12 54 2 NthWst 28% 13 58 1 25% 12 62 2 SthWst 25% 12 62 1 24% 11 61 3 Cntrl 26% 13 59 2
21. Do you think the United States economy is in a recession now? Tot Yes No DK/NA 60% 35 5 Alghny Yes No DK/NA 60% 36 4 Rep 38% 57 5 Philly 73% 21 6 Dem 76% 18 6 NthEst 59% 36 5 Ind 64% 32 4 SthEst 61% 36 4 Men 56% 41 3 NthWst 54% 43 4 Wom 64% 29 7 SthWst 65% 29 6 LklyDP voters 76% 18 6 Cntrl 56% 39 5
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22. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Right thing Wrong thing DK/NA 35% 59 6 Alghny Right thing Wrong thing DK/NA 37% 57 6 72% 21 7 Philly 12% 86 2 10% 85 5 NthEst 30% 64 6 24% 70 5 SthEst 31% 63 6 40% 56 4 NthWst 44% 50 6 30% 63 8 SthWst 37% 60 3 10% 88 3 Cntrl 44% 47 9
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? Feb 27 2008 Right thing Wrong thing DK/NA 35 59 6 Aug 23 2007 34 60 6 May 31 2007 34 60 6 Mar 29 2007 38 58 5 Feb 8 2007 37 59 4 Aug 15 2006 36 58 6 Jun 21 2006 38 57 6
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