Identifying the risk factors in theft ex-car offending in New Zealand by pptfiles

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									Identifying the risk factors in theft ex-car offending in New Zealand
Obert Cinco Organisational Performance Group Police National Headquarters New Zealand Police

Outline
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
 

Background Methodology Results Discussion

Background


Theft Ex Car
• 2nd most recorded offence • average 50,000 offences per year • accounts for 12% of total crime

Background


Theft Ex Car
• 2nd most recorded offence • average 50,000 offences per year • accounts for 12% of total crime



NZ Police / Department of Conservation (DOC) project on car break-ins at DOC sites
• DOC sites – no prblem • All of NZ – ‘some problem’

Background




Little quantitative research Identify prevalence of potential risk factors

Methodology


Random sample of 1,200 files
• recorded theft ex-car offences • period July 2001 to June 2006

Methodology


Random sample of 1,200 files
• recorded theft ex-car offences • period July 2001 to June 2006



Extraction exercise
• retrieval and examination of hard copy files • data captured electronically • 1,020 files collated and analysed (85% response rate)

Methodology
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Other sources of data
• Police NIA system • Land Transport New Zealand

Results
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Location
• Official Statistics


51,000 theft-ex-car offences occurred per year



% of Total
10% 15% 20% 0%
nd

5%

A uc C ou nt C an kl a

Location

Results

% Distribution of Thet Ex Car Offences by Districts

District

te rb ur ie s/ y M an uk au W el lin gt B on ay O fP le nt y W ai te m at a W ai ka to C en tr al So ut he rn Ea st er n N or th la nd Ta sm an

Results
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Location
• Official Statistics




51,000 theft-ex-car offences occurred per year 66% - 'Public road, street, or public place‘ 22% - 'Dwelling‘

Results
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Location
• Sample data


variation in offending pattern across the country
Comparative Location of Offences by Districts

60%

50%

40%

% of Total

30%

Roadside Outdoor Car Park Private Property Car Park Building

20%

10%

0%

National

Auckland

Bay Of Plenty

Canterbury

Central

Counties/Manukau

Eastern

North Shore/Waitakere

Northland

Southern

Tasman

Waikato

Wellington

District

Results


Location
Intended Purpose of Parking
2% 5% 6% 8% 11%
Residential area General / multiple purpose Designated workplace car park Other / Unknown Leisure / recreational Shopping mall / supermarket Licensed premises

14%

54%

Results


Location
Area Density of Location
4% 1% 14%

81%
CBD / Town Centre Rural Non-CBD Urban / Suburban Unknown

Results


Cyclical patterns and trends
Comparative Occurrence Hour Band of Offences Occurring within 1 Hour and 3 Hours
25% 20%
% of Total

15% 10% 5% 0%

3 Hour 1 Hour

0000-0259

0300-0559

0600-0859

0900-1159

1200-1459

1500-1759

1800-2059

2100-2359

Hour Band

Results


Cyclical patterns and trends
Patterns Across the Week
20% 15%

% of Total

10% 5% 0% Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Day of the Week

Official Stat Sample

Results


Cyclical patterns and trends
Pattern Across Month
14% 12% 10%

% of Total

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Official Stat Sample

Month of the Year

Results


Cyclical patterns and trends
Theft Ex Car Rate of Offending per 10,0000 Population and Vehicle Fleet FY 2002 - 2006
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Rate per 10K Popn Rate per 10K Fleet

Rate per 10K

Fiscal Year

Results


Makes and models
Comparative Victimisation Rate and % of Total Car Fleet

20% 18% 16% 14%
% of Total

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
TOYOTA NISSAN MAZDA MITSUBISHI HONDA FORD

Victimisation Rate % of Total Car Fleet

Car Make

Results


Makes and models
Vehicle Make Mazda Mazda Nissan Hyundai Suzuki Nissan Nissan Honda Nissan Vehicle Model Familia 626 Pulsar Accent Escudo Primera Sunny Civic P/Finder Victimisation 6.3% 2.5% 2.4% 0.6% 0.7% 2.2% 2.4% 3.7% 1.3% 2.5% Car Fleet Risk Index 2.6% 1.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.4% 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 0.7% 1.5% 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6

Mitsubishi Lancer

Results


Security
Probability 1% 20% % Displayed 27% 99% % Unknown 18% 0%

Items Stolen
Fuel Car radio / stereo

Registration plate
Radar detector Other car parts Electrical equipment being part of car Electrical equipment not being part of car Personal document (driving license / credit card) Money Clothing No items stolen Other item stolen

4%
3% 7% 7% 27% 23% 20% 15% 5%

100%
78% 85% 57% 27% 21% 25% 41% 5%

0%
19% 8% 34% 61% 65% 61% 54% 50%

57%

34%

57%

Discussion






Variation in type location where the targeted vehicles are parked between Police districts Car make and model Security of location

End of Presentation


								
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