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3-Key SEA framing issues -TNMC Presentation-LHaas

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3-Key SEA framing issues -TNMC Presentation-LHaas Powered By Docstoc
					Key issues framing the SEA scope
   Related to electricity demand and
       power trade development
         in the LMB and GMS

                     Briefing to TNMC
  Based on the Presentations Made to NMCS/Line Agencies
      And separate CSO/NGO Consultation Meetings

           In Viet Nam, Lao PDR and Cambodia


                                                          1
            Purpose of this Presentation

Illustrate /explore:

1.   Trends in electricity demand-supply in the LMB/GMS
2.   Linkages to the GMS sustainable energy futures – and
     regional context of cross-border power
3.   Proposed mainstream dams in relation to the above
     trends (multiple seller- multiple buyer)


               Focused on the opportunities side
       of the Development “Opportunities-Risk” Equation


                                                            2
                   LMB Selected indicators 2004
                      Cambodia        Lao PDR           Thailand       Viet Nam
Population              13.8             5.8              64.2            82.1
(million) (2004)
GDP (current             4.9             2.2              150.1           41.2
USD billion)
GDP per capita          361             420               2,519            551
(current USD)
FDI (USD million)       131              17               1,064           1,610
FDI/capita (USD)         9.5             2.9              16.6            19.6
Electricity use          45             160           1,752 (2003)     433 (2003)
per capita (kWh)
Energy use per          180.0          355.0          1,405.7 (2003)   544.3 (2003)
capita (kgoe)
Fuelwood share          88%             67%               16%             49%
in total primary
energy

Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008
                                                                                      3
       Regional GMS energy issues

                         • Dependence on traditional sources of energy (e.g. fuelwood)
Energy poverty           • 20 % of GMs population (74 mil.) no access to electricity
 widespread              • Energy consumption in GMS is only 2/3 of the world average
                           for developing countries




    Energy               • 1993-2005 8% annual growth in energy consumption
                         • 21% of total energy consumed in the region imported
 vulnerability           • Volatile energy prices and limited alternative energy sources
high and rising            mean the region is vulnerable




   Energy                • Energy supplies low and unpredictable – overall quality low
 productivity            • Lack of competitive pressure on energy suppliers
                         • Policy regimes inadequate to address emerging challenges
  and policy
  Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB 2009                           4
             Electricity consumption in LMB / GMS
            relative to other countries + Human Development Index
    Per Capital Electricity Use                           UN Human Development index + Per
                                                          Capital Electricity Use (2005)




                                                                                 Kwh/yr/pc      Normalized

                                                                Thailand           1,950            34.8
                                                                Yunnan             1,252            22.4
                                                               Viet Nam             573             10.2
                                                               Lao PDR                               yr
                                                                                    1874,000 kwh / 3.3 /pc
                                                               Myanmar               78 As turning point
                                                                                                     1.4
                                                               Cambodia              56 In HDI       1.0




                                                                           Per capita electricity use


Source: Building Sustainable energy futures in the GMS, ADB, 2009                                            5
       Significant differences in urbanization and
       household electricity consumption in LMB
Country        Urbanization    Per capita household    Share of residential sector
                  Ratio        consumption (KWh)           in total electricity
                                                            consumption (%)

 Cambodia          17%                  29                          52.0

  Lao PDR          21%                  95                          53.0

  Thailand         33%                 409                          21.0

  Vietnam          27%                 242                          42.0




  Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB, 2009
                                                                                     6
    Overall trend in GDP growth + electricity
       consumption in GMS correlated

  Example:
   Thailand
 growth of net
   electricity
 consumption
and GDP 1982-
     2006


Growth + Electricity

No trend decoupling
  of overall energy
 consumption seen
  yet - as in OECD
     economies

                                                7
         High economic growth in the LMB
                   1985-2005




Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB 2008
                                                                 8
What about the current economic crisis?
   Current downturn in rate of economic growth in the GMS




  Source: World Bank 2009
  e – expected
  f - forecast

                                                            9
  Trend with last Asia economic downturn
                                              Thailand growth rates:
                  electricity consumption, total energy and GDP - 1982-2006
          25

          20

          15

          10
Percent




           5

           0
                1982   1984    1986    1988     1990   1992   1994   1996   1998   2000   2002    2004    2006
           -5

          -10

          -15
                  Net electricity consumption growth      Real GDP growth      total energy consumption




   Source: EIA 2009, UNSD 2009                                                                                   10
          Changing economic environment?

Power sector projections based on the assumption of
continuing rapid economic growth in the region
(between 6.3 and 7.6 % to 2025 for the GMS region)


     Can these levels of growth continue to be expected
     with the global economic downturn?


           What does this mean for likely future energy demand in
           the region – especially where growth has been
           dependant upon exports?

                 What does this mean for investment in the energy
                 sector? And more specifically investment in
                 hydropower?

                                                                    11
Projected growth in grid power demand
     in LMB Countries 2005-2025




Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008 (base case projection)
                                                                             12
        What this means from a Regional Power Planner Perspective
                                    Grid Based Generation Expansion

                      Future Capacity Additions
                      •   Natural Gas?
                      •   Coal?
                      •   Oil?
    Energy            •   Hydro from tributaries or LMB mainstream?
    Demand            •   Nuclear?                                                       Other:
                      •   Co-generation, etc                                             • Power Import
                      •   Grid-scale biomass                                             • Replacement Plant
                      •   Grid-scale Wind, Solar                                         • Fuel-Switching
                      •   Other Grid-scale renewable?


                                                                        Projected energy demand
                                                                        Projected energy demand with
Existing                                                                demand management
  Capacity                                                              Supply
•   Natural gas
•   Coal
•   Oil                                    Today                                        time
•   hydropower
•   biomass
•   Etc.
                                                         Need for new generation delayed through demand-side
                                                         management & supply-side efficiency measures 13
                  *RoW = Rest of World
     GMS energy resources – for grid-scale
         electricity generation (ADB)




                                                                Hydro (MWyr/yr) - ADB
                                                                                                Regional
                                                     Cambodia   Lao PDR   Thailand   Viet Nam     total
                                                                                                 (GMS)

                                        Low –cost     1,670      4,640     2,784      3,248     54,102

                                         Medium-
                                                      1,114      3,944     1,856      3,712     43,802
                                          cost

Other renewable sources                  High-cost     742       2,320      928       1,392     23,571
- Different grades
                                          Small        650       1,015      406        812       5,928

                                           Total      4,176     11,919     5,974      9,164     127,403

Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008                                             14
Electricity Generation Scenarios – Fuel Type
             One Interpretation – GMS Energy Futures ADB
• From ADB
Four GMS Scenarios      – new generation capacity to 2025




Between 217,000 – 238,000 MW
                               Hydropower Between 62,000 – 93,000 MW


                                                                       15
Trends in GMS cross-border power trade?
                       Under Integrated GMS Scenario

           Cross-border trade is the key motivating factor for 11+ proposed
Why?       LMB hydropower schemes (buyer + seller perspectives)


                Policy + Legal Framework

• Inter-government Agreement on Regional Power Trade (2002)
• GMS Power Trade Road Map - as reference
• Existing Bilateral Power Trade MOUs, subject to PPAs
   – E.g. Thailand’s MOU’s with
       • Lao PDR (5,000 MW)
       • Cambodia
       • Others, including China

                                                                          16
                   Trend in cross-border Power Trade

                                                      Exports
                                                                                           Trade flow (GWh)
                                Cambodia    Lao PDR        Thailand         Viet Nam       RoW           Total
                                                                                                         in 2005
           Cambodia                -          74                                                          74

           Lao PDR                             -                                                         2,628
 Imports




                                                                                                    2025
           Thailand                          2,033            -                            3,234         5,267

           Viet Nam                          521                               -                         521
                                                                              Exports
           RoW                                                                               -
                                                 Cambodia         Lao PDR          Thailand    Viet Nam           RoW
           Total                             2,628                                         3,234        -
                                 Cambodia              -              40                           15

                                 Lao PDR              22               -                           50                 57
                      Imports




                                 Thailand            9,482        42,458               -                       147,269*

                                 Viet Nam            3,612        25,988                            -             5,918
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008
                                                                                                                 17
                                 RoW                                  644                          584                -
          Projected electricity trade within 2005-2025
               One Trend Scenario – GMS (ADB)
                               Under Integrated GMS Scenario
              2005                                        2025




                                             ?




                                                                  18
Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB, 2009
11+ Proposed LMB Mainstream dams in the
      Context of Cross-Border Trade
                     All LMB schemes together
                     represent near:

                       • 12-14,000 MW and up to
                         65,000 GWh av. annual
                       • 11.5% of installed
                         capacity in LMB by 2020
                       • 9.3% of power produced
                         in the LMB by 2020
                       • 5% of new generation
                         capacity in GMS by 2025
                         (ADB Base case)
                       • Abut 10 Nam Theun 2’s

                                              19
             Potential Markets for Mainstream Dams
  Installed Capacities (MW)
  subject to change

                                                                    Myanmar
                                                                -   No mainstream projects
       PRC                                                          proposed
8 in operation, under construction and
       planned, total 13,800 MW




                                           1,410 MW                   Viet Nam
                    1,230 MW

                    1,260 MW                                   Luang Prabang         1,410 MW
                                                               Sambor                2,600 MW
                           1,320 MW                            Stung Treng             800 MW
                           1,200 MW




Thailand                        1,872 MW
                                  800 MW                            Lao & Cambodia
Pak Beng        1,230 MW
Xayabori        1,260 MW         360 MW                                 -   A proportion of
Pak Lay         1,300 MW                              980 MW
Sanakham        1,200 MW                                                    generation for domestic
Ban Khoum       1,827 MW                                                    power expansion
Lat Sua           800 MW                                2,600 MW        -   Units from schemes,
Don Sahong        360 MW                                                    subject to agreements




                                                                                          20
                       Summing Up
      Framing Issues Regional Energy Demand / Power Trade

              5 general themes in discussions to date
                  (in Cambodia, Lao & Viet Nam)
1.   National policy framework - what policies are relevant to
     place decisions on LMB mainstream dams in a basin-wide
     sustainable context?
2.   Demand - Is the power needed? Is the picture changed
     with the economic downturn?
3.   Supply - Other options to meet electricity needs?
     theoretical and practical ? What lead time is needed?
4.   Priorities – to meet urban or rural needs?
5.   Transboundary dimensions - What are the opportunities
     and constrains? Sharing benefits? Mechanisms?
                                                                 21
Change for SEA: Measure and Manage Expectation
e.g. NGO / CSOs and others advocate expanding consideration of options


                                              Structural /
                                        Infrastructure options
                                                                    Conventional Thermal? gas, coal, oil
 End-Use Efficiency?
     Distribution Loss Reduction?                                Electricity Imports? Hydro Tributaries?
           Bulk metering?                                    Hydro Mainstream?
        Power Factor correction?                              Grid-scale Renewable? E.g. wind, biomas, solar
                   Structural Change in Demand?            Other non Conventional?   Nuclear?
                                                              Decentralized Systems?
 Demand-Side                                                                            Supply-Side
 Management
                                                  Power
                                                  Sector                                  Options
   Options
                                                               Supply-side efficiency?
      Tariff measures?                                                 Improved facility operations?
         Preferential Energy Rates?                            Improved cost recovery?
             Subsidy on power saving?                                       Policies to attract investors?
                Carbon Tax?                                       Public and private sector roles?


                                            Non-Structural
                                              Options
                                                                                                             22
 How will the SEA address divergent views?
                     On the power and energy theme

• SEA now at Preparation Stage – consultation oriented.
• Focus on the 11+ mainstream dams
• Systematically bring existing information in a timely way to feed
  immediate needs (e.g. MRC Procedures) + longer term planning


Inception Report and Baseline Assessment - to follow

 • Trend analysis - how mainstream dams impact on development trends
 • Scenario analysis - ‘With and without’ mainstream dams scenario’s
    feeding new information to MRC Hydropower Database > BDP Scenario.
 • Opportunities and Risks – analysis of development opportunities and
    risks, mitigation and enhancement using the SEA Framework

                                                                         23
Thank you

       24

				
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