Cash Flow Forecasting

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Controllership Function in School Districts Texas Association of School Business Officials Annual Conference - Austin Texas March 2008 James Terry PhD, CPA, CTSBO Executive Director of Finance and Accounting Services North East ISD Controller’s Job More than Financial Control Systems  Accounting controls   Safeguarding of assets Reliability of the financial records Plan of organization Operational efficiency Managerial policies Achieving the business objectives  Administrative Controls     Operational Controls  The Controller’s Job Functions        Planning Organizing Directing Measuring/Reporting Financial analysis/Modeling Process analysis/Statistical analysis Forecasting The Organization Annual Planning (Budgeting) Strategies Revisions Execution Strategic Planning Processes Activities Tasks The Community Evaluation Balanced Scorecard Six Sigma Dashboard Source: Robert N. Anthony and Vijay Govindarajan, Management Control Systems The Controller’s Job Functions        Planning Organizing Directing Measuring/Reporting Financial analysis/Modeling Process analysis/statistical analysis Forecasting Department Of Finance Executive Director of Finance & Accounting Services E9 Departmental Secretarial Pool Secretary to the Executive Director – C9 Administrative Support Specialist – C7 Finance Secretary– C3 Director of Accounting Services & Payroll E8 Director of Budgets & Financial Control E8 Director of Procurement & eCommerce E7 Director of Risk Management & Employee Benefits E8 Director of Grants Administration / Comptroller E6 Office of Accounting Services and Payroll Director E8 Payroll Manager E4 Leave Coordinator E3 Payroll Technician C10 Senior Accounting Manager E5 District Cashier C6 Accounts Payable Supervisor E1 Secretarial Pool Senior Accounting Manager E5 Accounting Clerk Part Time C3 Accounting Technician C10 Data Technician C4 Payroll Specialist C8 Accounting Specialist Payroll Deductions C8 Payroll Clerk C4 Assistant Payroll Manager E3 Accounts Payable Specialist C8 Accounts Payable Specialist C8 Accounts Payable Specialist C8 Accounts Payable Specialist C8 Accounts Payable Specialist C8 Accounts Payable Specialist C8 Accounts Payable Specialist C8 Accounting Specialist C8 Payroll Technician C10 Payroll Specialist C9 Payroll Specialist C9 Payroll Specialist C9 Office Of Grants Administration Assoc. Supt. of Campus Support Assoc. Supt. of Instruction Secretarial Pool Director for Grants Administration/Comptroller E6 Executive Director of Athletics All Executive Directors and Principals Grant Writer Consultant Executive Director of Finance & Accounting Services Corporate Development Consultant Athletic Accountant Reports to Jerry Comalander E1 Senior Accountant – Grant Administration E2 Special Education Accountant E1 Instructional Program Specialist C9 Senior Accountant – Curriculum Compliance & School Improvement E2 Senior Accountant – Continuing Education / KIN E2 Executive Director of Curriculum Compliance Director of Community Education Office of Procurement & eCommerce Director E7 Assistant Director E6 Financial Technology Coordinator T3 Secretarial Pool Technology Specialist C9 Finance Clerk C3 Manager E3 Specialist/ OWS Inventory C9 Facility Usage & Textbook C9 Textbook Coordinator Temporary X1 Specialist/TWS Inventory C9 Part-time Specialist/ Facility Usage & Textbook C9 Procurement Coordinator E2 Specialist/GWS Inventory C9 Procurement Specialist Frozen C9 Bid Coordinator C10 Contract Coordinator C10 Procurement Specialist C9 Specialist/ PO Processor C9 OWS Warehouse Supervisor E1 Material Handler O4 Material Handler O4 Material Handler O4 Specialist/ PO Processor C9 Specialist/ PO Processor C9 Material Handler O4 Material Handler O4 Material Handler O4 Material Handler/ Testing O4 Material Handler O4 GWS Warehouse Supervisor E1 Material Handler O4 Material Handler Frozen O4 Material Handler O4 Procurement Warehouses Property Transfer Coordinator Pending Property Management Technician O1 Property Management Technician O1 Office Of Budgets & Financial Control Director of Budgets & Financial Control E8 Secretarial Pool Budget Analyst E1 Vacant VOE Student Div Comptroller for Operations E5 Assoc. Supt. of Auxiliary Services Assoc. Supt. of Business Services Senior Accountant E3 Sr. Accountant for School Nutrition E2 Executive Director of School Nutrition Comptroller for Campus Support E5 Assoc. Supt. of Campus Support Assoc. Supt. of Business Services Campus Support Technician C10 Comptroller for Business Services & Treasurer E5 Assoc. Supt. of Business Services Staff Accountant - Treasury E2 The Controller’s Job Functions        Planning Organizing Directing Measuring/Reporting Financial analysis/Modeling Process analysis Forecasting The Controller’s Job Functions        Managing Coaching Managing by Objective (MBO) Priorities Mediation Praise Reprimand The Controller’s Job Functions        Planning Organizing Directing Measuring/Reporting Financial analysis/Modeling Process analysis/Statistical analysis Forecasting The administrative cost ratio administrative costs divided by instruction costs, expressed as a percentage. Year NEISD 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 5.80% 6.21% 6.04% 6.23% 6.30% The state standard for the administrative cost ratio is 11.05% INSTRUCTIONAL EXPENDITURES PER REFINED ADA Instr. Expend. /RADA 1 North East $ 4,189 2 Houston $ 4,186 3 Cypress-Fairbanks $ 4,103 4 Austin $ 4,098 5 San Antonio $ 4,090 6 El Paso $ 4,048 7 Dallas $ 4,017 8 Forth Worth $ 3,957 9 Fort Bend $ 3,928 10 Northside $ 3,927 11 Arlington $ 3,926 CAMPUS ACADEMIC RATINGS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% I SD FA IR BA NK SI SD ISD I SD ISD SD SD AS I I SD IS D PA SO EA ST ID EI TIN N D H O I SD Low Performing Acceptable Recognized Exemplary WO RT TO EN AR LIN G FO RT NO RT HS FO RT H 77% of NEISD’s districts are rated Exemplary or Recognized. Fort Bend is the only large district with similar results. CY PR ES SA N S- NO AN TO NI DA LL AU S RT B EL YTD Days per Paraprofessional 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 G AR N ER EG ER IT Z N IM KR U N JA C KS O H IT E O D LE Y D R IS C x( AL T_ M O LL BU SH S, SR C ) TE JE DA O SUBSTITUTE DAYS PARAPROFESSIONALS HS & MS 1st Quarter 2003-04 W W BR AD 1st Quarter 2002-03 HS ADA by Year by Campus 98 Percent of Average Daily Attendance 96 94 92 90 88 86 CHURCHILL LEE MAC MADISON REAGAN ROOSEVELT ISA A/B Schedule Linked to PEIMS Discipline 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 -9 - 9 20 200 00 0 20 -0 0 1 20 1-0 02 2 -0 3 School Year Automated Calling System TTAD % Productive Time 100% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% Air Conditioning Carpentry Energy Control Environmental Heating Electrical Filter Crew Fire Alarms Auxiliary Services Maintenance Department Productivity September - November, 2003 Floors Facility Managers Glass Grounds Bond Expenditures & Commitments As of April 30, 2004 Principal & Interest Received $ 88,221,817 72,119,836 230,801,146 175,737,073 300,799,927 $ 867,679,799 $ Actual Expenditures & Commitments $ 88,113,600 71,933,771 221,224,782 150,081,429 71,247,079 602,600,661 $ $ $ % Balance of Total P&I * ** *** **** ***** Bond Series 1996 1997 1999 2000 2004 Total Notes: * ** *** *** **** **** ***** Amount Issued $ 80,000,000 67,485,000 211,000,000 155,870,000 300,000,000 $ 814,355,000 Balance 108,217 186,066 9,576,364 25,655,644 229,552,848 265,079,138 108,217 186,066 8,633,423 942,941 25,058,585 597,059 229,552,848 265,079,138 0.12% 0.26% 4.15% 14.60% 76.31% 30.55% Earmarked for budgeted projects Earmarked for budgeted projects Earmarked for budgeted projects Earmarked for administrative costs Earmarked for budgeted projects Earmarked for administrative costs Earmarked for budgeted projects and administrative costs T otal Earmarked $ 100% Interest earned and received for the period to date is the difference of the issued amount and the principal and interest received. Interest earned and received through the current period is: $ 53,324,799 15 Capital Expenditures EXPENDITURES BY FISCAL YEAR $120,000,000 $100,000,000 $95,792,166 $100,331,724 $91,839,567 $80,000,000 $71,995,842 $63,261,521 $60,000,000 $47,472,424 $40,000,000 $32,561,560 $20,000,000 $4,834,710 $- $17,246,501 1995 - 96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 16 The Controller’s Job Functions        Planning Organizing Directing Measuring/Reporting Financial analysis/Modeling Process analysis Forecasting Financial Analysis      Statistical Section of CAFR Inventory Carrying Costs Bank Earnings Credit vs. Investments Cash inflows and outflows Benchmarking – ERG  Desktop Analyst  APi  FPI 18 Financial Analysis       Variance Reports Staffing Analysis Teacher Utilization Classroom Utilization Magnet Program Costs Utility Usage 18 Financial Analysis Course Costs  Mindsphere  Performance Measures  APQC  OSBC  18 The Controller’s Job Functions      Planning Organizing Directing Measuring/Reporting Financial analysis/Modeling   Process analysis/Statistical Forecasting Performance Measures Measure what you want to change. Source: NEISD Finance Department E X E C U T I O N Processes      Planning/Budgeting Teaching Reading Writing Arithmetic A C T I V I T I E S Determining Performance 3 by a deterministic function 2 is operated on… y = f (x) 5 into an outcome! (the dependent variable) 1 The independent variable… 4 To transform it… Using actual data to identify world-class performers in Enterprise Performance Management Effectiveness (Examples) Industry relative total excess return Operating profit volatility Analysts seen as business partners Balance of both financial and non-financial performance measures Quality metrics Accuracy of forecasts and analysis Use of balanced scorecards, simulation models Percent managers describing budget process convenient and easy Percent of time analytic focus is on proactive decision making Percent of time reports and commentaries address future actions Efficiency (Examples) •Overall planning cost as a % of revenue •Process cost as a % of revenue •Percent of business reports distributed electronically •Operations managers use of on-line budgeting tools •Staffing levels of process •Cycle times •Budget iterations •Performance reporting productivity •Utilization of self-service for inquiry •Application complexity Transportation Warehouse Order Processing - HLP Vendor Vendor Truck Fulfills PO Vendor Truck e Verbal PO’s PO’s are faxed, emailed or mailed Operations Whse Processes Requisitions, Bid Quotes, completed PO’s, returns, exceptions START Deliveries Direct Orders PO are called / faxed for same day shipment by Vendor Requests 1 Clerk at Trans Whse 4 On-Line Calalog Only Processes VENDOR and INTERNAL requisitions and PO returns Parts Mgr at Trans Whse Maintains and reconciles Inventory Maintenance Deliveries Daily Receiving Tickets (P/S) 2 Receiving Receives Merchandise, processes requisitions and returns Pick Tickets Manual Work Orders Daily Receiving Tickets (P/S) Pick Tickets 1 1 Hot Shot, Direct Orders Deliveries Picking Pulls stock from Inventory Picking / Loading 2 Stock Pile Pulls stock from Inventory Loads Truck for Orders 1 Receiving Receives Merchandise, processes requisitions and returns for Fulfills Pick Tickets Manual Work Orders END Motor Pool Ready to Use Vehicle(s) 3 Tool Inventory Mechanic Maintains Personal Tool Inventory Repairs Vehicles 1 START Oper Whse Inventory deliveries 1 Hot Shot Deliveries NEISD Truck PEIMS Reporting Process Verify PEIMS file against CAFR. Audit LEA runs an edit check on PEIMS. Identify major errors and correct them. Submit file to Data Processing PEIMS Coordinator. Resubmit until file is clean. TEA runs an error listing. Errors are communicated and corrected. Submit file to TEA. File is error free, end process. Expenditure Reclassification Process Campus/Department calls regarding expenditure posting error in GL Discuss with campus/department action necessary to correct error and prevent future errors. Submit journal entries to Accounting Services for posting Yes Director Approval? No Notify campus/department. Documentation to support expenditure reclassification is requested from campus/department Prepare journal entries to reclassify expenditure. Accounting Services scans and files expenditure reclassification documentation. End of process. End of process. The Controller’s Job Functions       Planning Organizing Directing Measuring/Reporting Financial Analysis/Modeling Process Analysis/Statistical Analysis  Forecasting Forecasting Into the Future    Big numbers vs. small numbers One number vs. many numbers Multiple periods over time vs. limited periods over short periods of time 36 Linear Correlation    Two distributions are correlated when a change in one causes a change in another Example: People who eat lots of peas may eat less broccoli (or may eat more…) Usually doesn’t have much effect unless significant correlation (||>0.75)  Correlation is a dependency between your Xs  Correlation does not mean causality! Always lies between -1 and 1 Measures strength of the linear relationship between two Xs Correlation coeff = 0 Correlation coeff > 0  Correlation coefficient   Correlation coeff < 0 Crystal Ball Forecasting   Crystal Ball offers opportunities to quickly run Monte Carlo Simulations in Excel to improve services Crystal Ball can be customized to do several what-if analyses to achieve quality performance and reduce cost Monte Carlo Simulation   Computer-based “experimental” method estimating statistical distribution of output (Y) Steps for Crystal Ball Simulation:     Assign each input (X) a value chosen “at random” from its assumed distribution Substitute values of inputs (Xs) into the system transfer function and compute a value of output (Y) Record value of output (Y) Repeat until enough samples of output (Y) characterize its statistical distribution Controller’s Functions Example   Measuring/Reporting Financial Analysis/Modeling   Forecasting/Statistical Analysis Planning Identifying Inputs & Outputs Cash Inflows Sales Concentration Cash Outflows Employees Fees Bond Holders Subsidies Vendors Inv. Income Stock Holders 4 Enter Historical Daily Rates into a Spreadsheet Date 5/22/01 5/23/01 5/24/01 5/25/01 5/26/01 5/27/01 5/28/01 5/29/01 5/30/01 5/31/01 6/1/01 6/2/01 6/3/01 TexPool 4.3591% 4.3115% 4.3062% 4.2441% 4.2441% 4.2441% 4.2441% 4.3159% 4.3183% 4.3691% 4.3329% 4.3329% 4.3329% Create a Line Graph Using the Information in Your Spreadsheet 4.50% 4.40% 4.30% 4.20% 4.10% 4.00% 3.90% 3.80% 3.70% 3.60% Past 90 Days of Investment Pool Rates 6/ 5/ 01 7/ 3/ 01 8/ 7/ 01 /0 1 /0 1 /0 1 /0 1 /0 1 /0 1 /0 1 /0 1 /0 1 /0 1 8/ 14 5/ 22 5/ 29 6/ 12 6/ 19 6/ 26 7/ 10 7/ 17 7/ 24 7/ 31 TexPool 8/ 21 /0 1 90 Days of Rates from Three Different Sources - Example 4.50% 4.40% 4.30% 4.20% 4.10% 4.00% 3.90% 3.80% 3.70% 3.60% Past 90 Days of Investment Pool Rates 6/ 5/ 01 7/ 3/ 01 8/ 7/ 01 /0 1 /0 1 /0 1 /0 1 /0 1 /0 1 /0 1 /0 1 /0 1 /0 1 8/ 14 5/ 22 5/ 29 6/ 12 6/ 19 6/ 26 7/ 10 7/ 17 7/ 24 7/ 31 TexPool LOGIC Lone Star 8/ 21 /0 1 Forecast New Chart with Information Comparison of Security vs. Trend Line 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 5/ 22 /0 1 6/ 22 /0 1 7/ 22 /0 1 8/ 22 /0 1 9/ 22 /0 10 1 /2 2/ 0 11 1 /2 2/ 0 12 1 /2 2/ 01 1/ 22 /0 2 2/ 22 /0 2 3/ 22 /0 2 4/ 22 /0 2 5/ 22 /0 2 6/ 22 /0 2 7/ 22 /0 2 8/ 22 /0 2 9/ 22 /0 2 TexPool Security TexPool Trend The Break Even Point Comparison of Security vs. Trend Line 4.50% 4.00% Break Even Point (~2/4/02) 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 5/ 22 /0 1 6/ 22 /0 1 7/ 22 /0 1 8/ 22 /0 1 9/ 22 /0 10 1 /2 2/ 0 11 1 /2 2/ 0 12 1 /2 2/ 01 1/ 22 /0 2 2/ 22 /0 2 3/ 22 /0 2 4/ 22 /0 2 5/ 22 /0 2 6/ 22 /0 2 7/ 22 /0 2 8/ 22 /0 2 9/ 22 /0 2 TexPool Security TexPool Trend See the Additional Earnings after Break Even Point Comparison of Security vs. Trend Line 4.50% 4.00% Break Even Point (~2/4/02) Potential Additional Earnings 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 5/ 22 /0 1 6/ 22 /0 1 7/ 22 /0 1 8/ 22 /0 1 9/ 22 /0 10 1 /2 2/ 0 11 1 /2 2/ 0 12 1 /2 2/ 01 1/ 22 /0 2 2/ 22 /0 2 3/ 22 /0 2 4/ 22 /0 2 5/ 22 /0 2 6/ 22 /0 2 7/ 22 /0 2 8/ 22 /0 2 9/ 22 /0 2 TexPool Security TexPool Trend Actual Rates vs. Projected Rates Performance of Security Purchased 08/24/2001 (maturity of 07/18/2002) 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% Actual BEP 10/02/02 2.0% Projected BEP 02/04/02 1.5% 9/ 23 /0 1 10 /2 3/ 01 11 /2 2/ 01 12 /2 2/ 01 8/ 24 /0 1 1/ 21 /0 2 2/ 20 /0 2 3/ 22 /0 2 4/ 21 /0 2 5/ 21 /0 2 Security Projected TexPool Rate Actual TexPool Rate 6/ 20 /0 2 Example of the Model Showing Potentially Higher Earnings Comparison of Security vs. Trend Line 3.00% 2.50% Break Even Point (~7/1/02) (after maturity date!) 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 10 /1 7/ 01 10 /3 1/ 11 01 /1 4/ 11 01 /2 8/ 01 12 /1 2/ 12 01 /2 6/ 01 1/ 9/ 02 1/ 23 /0 2 2/ 6/ 02 2/ 20 /0 2 3/ 6/ 0 3/ 2 20 /0 2 4/ 3/ 0 4/ 2 17 /0 2 5/ 1/ 0 5/ 2 15 /0 5/ 2 29 /0 2 6/ 12 /0 6/ 2 26 /0 2 7/ 10 /0 7/ 2 24 /0 2 LOGIC Security LOGIC Trend 100.00% 120.00% -40.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 0.00% 2/ 7/ 20 0 2/ 14 8 /2 00 2/ 21 8 /2 00 2/ 28 8 /2 00 8 3/ 6/ 20 0 3/ 13 8 /2 00 3/ 20 8 /2 00 3/ 27 8 /2 00 8 4/ 3/ 20 0 4/ 10 8 /2 00 4/ 17 8 /2 00 4/ 24 8 /2 00 8 5/ 1/ 20 08 5/ 8/ 20 0 5/ 15 8 /2 00 5/ 22 8 /2 00 5/ 29 8 /2 00 8 6/ 5/ 20 0 6/ 12 8 /2 00 8 -20.00% Fixed Rate Security versus BlackRock TempFund (Allied Irish C/P 3.11% Mat 6/6/08) Dated 2/15/08 Cash Flow Forecasting    Ensures liquidity Enhances cash management practices Forecasts problems   Revenues not being collected properly Expenditures exceed budget Amounts available for investment Period of time to hold the investment 5  Increase investment income   Controller’s Functions Example  Developing Cash Budgets   Measuring/Reporting Financial Analysis/Modeling    Forecasting Statistical Analysis Planning Assumptions  Cash flows for the current year will follow a pattern similar to that of the previous year All of the budgeted revenues will flow in as cash within the fiscal year All budgeted appropriations will flow out as cash during the fiscal year 8   Fiscal Year to Date General Operating Cash Reciepts: Cash Flows In $120,000,000 $100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $0 September October November December January February March FY00-01 FY01-02 April FY02-03 May June July August 12 $120,000,000 Monthly (Current) Taxes Collected $100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb FY01-02 Mar Apr FY02-03 May FY03-04 Jun Jul Aug Sep 13 Assumptions  Increase (decrease) in cash balance at the end of the year will be approximately equal to the excess (deficit) of budgeted revenues over budgeted expenditures 9 The Theory  Identify an optimal allocation of Funds   Funds that need to remain short-term for upcoming disbursements Balance that could be invested longer-term   Management of short-term funds based on cash flow analysis Management of longer-term funds based on market conditions 10 The Process     Review historical cash balances (typically monthly data for 2-5 years) Determine if there are any “statistically significant” seasonal changes in monthly balances Identify any growth trends Project future balances 11 Current Year Cash Flows   Use the percentages calculated and the current budgets for revenue and expenditures to determine the cash flow for the year Determine next year’s cash flows by multiplying percentages times next years budgeted revenues and expenditures 28 Information Required  Beginning cash balance of liquid investments    Bank Accounts Pool Accounts Money Market Accounts, etc.  Par value of outstanding investments 34 Current Year Cash Flows   Using the Forecasted Excess (Deficiency) of Cash along with the beginning cash balance and expected fixed income maturities, determine if there are any cash shortages If there are no shortages, determine where fixed income securities could be purchased and when they should mature based on the forecast 35 DAILY CASH MGT.SPREADSHEET Purch (-) Sold Int. (+) (+) CFO (-) CFI (+) 9/01/93 …… …... 8/31/94 CASH MANAGEMENT PROGRAM ( - ) MEANS REDUCING THE BALANCE ( + )MEANS INCREASING THE BALANCE Weekly Cash Flow Management Spreadsheet ACTUAL CASH 93-94 RECEIPTS SEPT 93………AUG 94 Week 1 2 3 4 Cash Budgets FORECASTED RECEIPTS SEPT…………………….  1 $ $ 4 $ AUG 95 ACTUAL CASH % RECEIPTS SEPT 93 ………AUG 94 1 % % % 2 3 4 % % % PROJECTED MATURING INVESTMENTS ACTUAL EXPENDITURES SEPT 93………AUG 94 Week 1 2 3 4 + SEPT…………………….  1 $ $ 4 $ AUG 95 GRAND TOTAL 100% FORECAST EXPENDITURE ACTUAL CASH % EXPENDITURES SEPT 93 ………AUG 94 1 % % % 2 3 4 % % % - ACTUAL EXCESS/DEFICIT SEPT 93………AUG 94 Week 1 2 3 4 SEPT…………………….  1 $ $ 4 $ AUG 95 FORECAST CASH Excess/Deficit GRAND TOTAL 100% = SEPT…………………….  1 $ $ 4 $ AUG 95 FISCAL YEAR FISCAL YEAR 21 Actual Receipts: Cash Flows in SEPT 1st WK 2nd WK 3rd WK 4th WK 5th WK TOTAL $ $ $ $ 266,309 $ 378,548 $ 295,191 $ OCT NOV DEC JAN FEBMAR APR MAY ## ## ## ## ## ## ### ### ### ### ### ### ## ## ## ## ## ## ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### JUNE ##### $ ##### $ ##### $ $ JULY 235,168 $ 893,818 $ (323,114) $ 381,110 $ AUG 329,988 $ (29,289) $ 65,342 $ 274,541 $ 385,280 $ TOTALS 80,756,909 81,999,786 16,112,265 72,053,085 39,728,412 734,085 $ 46,783,892 $ 11,367,424 2,546,418 $ 46,082,768 $ 7,722,074 5,990,609 $ (4,441,861) $ (3,888,914) 4,919,827 $ 5,892,337 9,197,929 $ 2,713,211 ##### $ 4,588,126 $ $ 29,221,470 $ 32,782,345 $ $ 12,213,217 $ ### ### $ $ 30,161,517 $ 54,266,674 $ 102,542,555 $ 23,806,132 ##### $ 5,775,109 $ 1,025,862 $ 290,650,457 Actual Disbursements: Cash Flows Out SEPT 1st WK 2nd WK 3rd WK 4th WK 5th WK TOTAL OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG TOTALS $ (2,560,518) $ (3,258,080) $ (583,324) $ (3,445,460) ## ### #### #### ### $ (2,383,357) $ (5,053,501) $ (3,823,062) $ (30,335,840) ### #### #### ### $ (5,771,302) $ (2,781,122) $ (1,134,775) $ (38,163,589) ### #### #### ### $ (2,817,272) $ (2,477,795) $ (3,931,719) $ (71,148,373) ### #### #### ### $ (16,098,003) $ (16,077,359) $ (1,913,717) $ (116,971,577) ### #### #### ### $ $ (1,897,841) $ (19,742,476) $ (73,183,692) ### #### #### ### $ (27,069,934) $ (28,287,619) $ (30,545,749) $ (329,803,071) $ (2,733,047) $ (3,863,166) $ (3,597,608) $ (2,894,389) ## $ (7,656,420) $ (2,931,160) $ (3,233,889) $ (17,408,892) ## $ (9,366,265) $ (13,988,058) $ (18,059,712) $ (2,137,946) ## $ $ (4,714,921) $ (2,714,840) $ (1,232,514) ## $ (22,316,251) $ (28,755,384) $ (28,189,373) $ (27,119,200) ## Excess (Deficiency) of Actual Cash Flows: 1st WK 2nd WK 3rd WK 4th WK 5th WK TOTAL $ $ $ $ $ $ (2,294,210) (2,354,499) (7,361,230) 19,855,205 7,845,266 $ $ $ $ $ $ (2,523,994) (1,316,748) 3,059,449 18,794,288 7,498,296 25,511,290 $ $ $ $ $ $ 46,200,568 42,485,161 (7,675,751) (13,139,885) 6,483,089 74,353,182 # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # $ $ $ $ $ $ (656,205) (3,875,771) (267,395) (12,773,252) (17,572,624) $ $ $ $ $ $ (465,375) (2,545,954) (1,583,977) (16,400,472) (1,516,731) (22,512,509) 24 % of Receipts: Cash Flows in by Week SEPT 1s t WK 2nd WK 3rd WK 4th WK 5th WK TOTAL 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 10.1% 0.0% 10.4% OCT 0.3% 0.9% 2.1% 11.3% 4.2% 18.7% NOV 16.1% 15.9% -1.5% 1.7% 3.2% 35.3% DEC 3.9% 2.7% -1.3% 2.0% 0.9% 8.2% JAN 2.4% 1.8% 1.7% 0.7% 4.1% 10.7% FEB 1.9% 5.3% 2.7% -1.7% 0.3% 8.5% MAR 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% -0.8% 0.3% 0.4% APR 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% MAY 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 1.1% JUNE 0.6% 0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 0.0% 3.3% JULY 1.6% 0.1% 0.3% -0.1% 0.1% 2.0% AUG TTLS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 100% % of Disbursements: Cash Flows out by Week SEPT 1s t WK 2nd WK 3rd WK 4th WK 5th WK TOTAL 0.8% 0.8% 2.3% 2.8% 0.0% 6.8% OCT 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% 4.2% 1.4% 8.7% NOV 0.2% 1.1% 1.0% 5.5% 0.8% 8.5% DEC 1.0% 0.9% 5.3% 0.6% 0.4% 8.2% JAN 0.5% 0.8% 4.6% 1.5% 0.4% 7.9% FEB 0.4% 0.6% 1.5% 0.4% 5.0% 7.8% MAR 0.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 5.6% 8.4% APR 1.0% 1.3% 1.1% 5.2% 0.5% 9.1% MAY 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% 4.7% 1.6% 8.6% JUNE 0.7% 1.7% 0.9% 4.9% 0.0% 8.2% JULY 1.5% 0.8% 0.8% 4.9% 0.6% 8.6% AUG 1.2% 0.3% 1.2% 0.6% 6.0% 9.3% 100% TTLS 27 Forecasted Receipts: Cash Flows In 1st WK 2nd WK 3rd WK 4th WK 5th WK TOTAL $ $ $ $ $ $ SEPT 272,188 386,905 301,707 3,908,951 25,957,618 30,827,368 $ $ $ $ $ $ OCT 750,291 2,602,633 6,122,858 33,506,054 12,482,839 55,464,675 $ $ $ $ $ $ NOV JAN MAR MAY DEC FEB APR 47,816,702 # # # 47,100,100 # # # (4,539,921) # # # 5,028,438 # # # 9,400,984 # # # 104,806,303 # # # $ $ $ $ $ $ JUNE 1,765,280 1,937,378 2,606,168 1,861,448 3,244,702 11,414,976 $ $ $ $ $ $ JULY AUG 4,689,415 $ 337,273 240,360 $ (29,935) 913,551 $ 66,784 (330,247) $ 280,602 938,524 $ 19,021,353 6,451,603 $ 19,676,076 8/19/02 budget adoption= $ $ $ $ $ $ $ TOTALS 82,539,714 83,810,028 16,467,963 49,953,496 91,699,023 324,470,223 324,470,223 Forecasted Disbursements: Cash Flows Out 1st WK 2nd WK 3rd WK 4th WK 5th WK TOTAL $ $ $ $ $ $ SEPT (2,696,744) (2,878,452) (8,063,760) (8,996,200) (868,373) (23,503,529) $ $ $ $ $ $ OCT (3,431,417) (4,068,696) (3,087,105) (14,732,256) (4,965,766) (30,285,239) $ $ $ $ $ $ NOV (614,358) (3,789,009) (3,405,940) (19,020,532) (2,859,276) (29,689,115) DEC #### #### #### #### #### #### JAN #### #### #### #### #### #### FEB #### #### #### #### #### #### MAR #### #### #### #### #### #### APR #### #### #### #### #### #### MAY #### #### #### #### #### #### $ $ $ $ $ $ JUNE (2,510,157) (6,078,349) (2,967,158) (15,217,708) (1,736,747) (28,510,119) $ $ $ $ $ $ JULY AUG (5,322,360) $ (4,026,458) (2,929,085) $ (1,195,148) (2,609,620) $ (4,140,896) (16,932,713) $ (2,015,531) (1,998,811) $ (20,792,823) (29,792,588) $ (32,170,856) 8/19/02 budget adoption= $ $ $ $ $ $ $ TOTALS (31,949,779) (40,193,983) (74,933,637) (137,783,419) (62,488,565) (347,349,384) (347,349,384) Forecasted Excess (Deficiency) of Cash: 1st WK 2nd WK 3rd WK 4th WK 5th WK TOTAL CUM. $ $ $ $ $ $ $ SEPT (2,424,556) (2,491,547) (7,762,053) (5,087,249) 25,089,244 7,323,839 7,323,839 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ OCT (2,681,126) (1,466,063) 3,035,754 18,773,798 7,517,073 25,179,436 32,503,275 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ NOV DECJAN MAR MAY FEB APR 47,202,344 # # # 43,311,091 # # # (7,945,861) # # # (13,992,094) # # # 6,541,708 # # # 75,117,188 # # # 107,620,463 # # # $ $ $ $ $ $ $ JUNE (744,877) (4,140,972) (360,989) (13,356,260) 1,507,955 (17,095,143) 12,956,604 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ JULY (632,945) (2,688,725) (1,696,069) (17,262,959) (1,060,286) (23,340,985) (10,384,381) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ AUG (3,689,185) (1,225,083) (4,074,112) (1,734,930) (1,771,470) (12,494,780) (22,879,161) $ $ $ $ $ $ TOTALS 50,589,935 43,616,045 (58,465,675) (87,829,923) 29,210,458 (22,879,161) 32  To help make Investment Decisions  Short Roll vs. Going Out  Make Payroll (Do we have enough money)  Matching Maturities to Cash needs  End of Year Forecasting   Determining Final Budget Amendment Or Fund Balance 7 Forecasting End of Year  Using the calculated cumulative cash flows to project end of year expenditures 68 Forecasting End of Year ACTUAL CASH DISBURSEMENTS SEPT OCT 1st WK (2,560,518) (3,258,080) 2nd WK (2,733,047) (3,863,166) 3rd WK (7,656,420) (2,931,160) 4th WK (9,366,265) (13,988,058) 5th WK 0 (4,714,921) TOTAL (22,316,251) (28,755,384) MOV AVG (22,316,251) (25,535,818) NOV (583,324) (3,597,608) (3,233,889) (18,059,712) (2,714,840) (28,189,373) (26,420,336) DEC (3,445,460) (2,894,389) (17,408,892) (2,137,946) (1,232,514) (27,119,200) (26,595,052) JAN (1,739,308) (2,701,507) (15,057,548) (5,063,624) (1,366,883) (25,928,870) (26,461,816) FEB (1,264,801) (1,866,411) (4,909,350) (1,274,648) (16,326,742) (25,641,951) (26,325,172) MAR (1,440,536) (3,863,517) (3,673,036) (346,242) (18,469,228) (27,792,558) (26,534,798) APR (3,139,115) (4,274,349) (3,781,167) (17,138,753) (1,533,479) (29,866,863) (26,951,306) MAY 0 0 0 0 0 0 (23,956,717) 69 Forecasted Ending Cash Balances (before purchase of any investments) $200,000,000 $180,000,000 $160,000,000 $140,000,000 $120,000,000 $100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $SEPT OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG 36 The Controller’s Job Jack Welch of General Electrics once said, “If the rate of change outside your organization is greater than the rate of change inside your organization, then the end is in sight.”

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