CCC Communications Strategy - Be Birmingham by hcj

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									                         www.theccc.org.uk



Building a Low-Carbon Economy –
  Tackling Climate Change: the
      Business Opportunities

            Professor Julia King
        Climate Change Committee Member
   Vice-Chancellor, Aston University, Birmingham

      Be Birmingham Summit 26th June 2009
  In Dec 08 the CCC set out challenging
  targets for Government…

Long term target: 80% reduction in Kyoto GHG on 1990 levels by
2050

Recommendation to reduce emissions by at least 34% by 2020...


And by 42% by 2020 in event of global deal


Interim target now accepted by Government and written into the
legislation. Also commitment to ask the CCC to review its
recommendations following a global deal


   These challenging targets will drive major new
   business opportunities across a range of sectors
2050 - the scale of the UK challenge

                           695 Mt CO2e

  International aviation
                                42
            & shipping*

   UK non-CO2 GHGs              98
            Other CO2

      Industry (heat &
  industrial processes)         108
                                                77% cut
                                            (= 80% vs. 1990)
        Residential &           103
      commercial heat


                                134
   Domestic transport                          159 Mt CO2e



                                184
 Electricity generation


                           2006 emissions     2050 objective
 * bunker fuels basis
 Meeting required reductions


                    Reducing power sector emissions:
       Renewables (wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS




                               Application of
                             power to transport
                                 and heat


Reducing transport emissions:                Reducing heat emissions:
• Fuel efficiency                            • Energy efficiency
• Electric/plug-in hybrids                   • Behaviour change
• Sustainable biofuels                       • Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,
                                                storage heating)
                                             • Biomass boilers
                                             • CCS in industry
                       POWER SECTOR: required reductions


                      Emissions intensity to 2050                                              Power generation to 2050

                600

                                                                                         600




                                                         TWh electricity generation per year
                500


                400                                                                      500
g/CO2 per kWh




                300
                                                                                         400

                200
                                                                                         300
                                                                                                                            90% path
                100

                                                                                         200
                 0                                                                          2000    2010    2020   2030   2040     2050
                      2006   2010   2020   2030   2050
HOMES: emissions reduction from energy
use in homes, MtCO2
HOMES: residential sector MACC - technical
potential in 2020
TRANSPORT: a key role for ultra low carbon
vehicles in achieving CO2 targets

Key message: decarbonisation of power sector to open the way for using
   electricity (directly or via renewable hydrogen) in the transport sector in the
   long term

 MARKAL scenarios to 2050: reduction in carbon intensity of the transport
 sector first with conventional technology then with electric, plug-in hybrids,
 second generation biofuels and hydrogen.

 Extended ambition scenario for 2020: after slow start, around 20% of new car
 sales are either EVs or PHEVs by 2020, the rest are various types of hybrids.
 Increased penetration of biofuels. EU target of 95g CO2/Km is met in the UK.


 Current ambition scenario for 2020: some increase in vehicle fuel efficiency,
 primarily through increased hybrid car uptake but no additional biofuels and no
 penetration of either EVs or PHEVs by 2020. EU target is not met.
 Industry view of the high-level technology &
  R&D roadmap for decarbonising transport




Source: New Automotive Innovation and Growth Team (NAIGT), 2009
       EVs: new technologies – new opportunities




    New car sales by year
    (extreme range scenario)




    Number of cars in the
    UK car parc
    (extreme range scenario)



Arup/CENEX report
for BERR and DfT 2008
     Electric vehicles are feasible now

►   The infrastructure is almost in place

►   Some vehicles are already available
     ► highly efficient
     ► ranges of 60 to 200+ miles
     ► some are glamorous!


►   Additional power system load is easily
    manageable
     ► 17% additional generation capacity
     ► exploit night time trough and day
       time dips with smart metering
New business opportunities: POWER


New initiatives in power generation

  Renewable Obligation Certificates: 1.5 -15% renewables by
  2020
  bioenergy
  combined heat and power
  major expansion of wind energy: 3 – 28GW by 2020
  CCS, new nuclear build
New business opportunities: HOMES


DECC heat and energy saving strategy (consultation
Feb 09)

  by 2020 up to 7 million homes offered ‘whole house’ packages
  if this cost £6k per house: £42bn business
  new types of business, new business models
  employment and skills


High efficiency appliances, solar, air and ground
source heat pumps…
New business opportunities: CARS


Ultra low carbon vehicle demonstrator
  announced 23rd June: over 300 ultra low carbon vehicles in the
  UK
  the largest group in Birmingham/Coventry
  EVs and PHEVs potentially 50% of new car sales in the UK by
  2023: 1.4 million vehicles


Skills for maintenance and repair

New infrastructure

High efficiency electric motors, AC…
The low carbon economy will offer a
lot of opportunities: how can we make
    sure we are ready for them?

             Thank you


    www.theccc.org.uk

								
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