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					                         The Fink Tank                                                                                  FA Cup Final special                                                                           Tony Cascarino
                        Daniel Finkelstein                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        FA Cup fascinating facts
Who is going to win the FA Cup?                                                                                            Key clash                                                                                                      Talking                                 Ashley Cole can equal the record of five FA Cup winners' medals

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Five times winners

Here are a few basic stats drawn from the
Fink Tank model.
                                                   Chances after 90 minutes
                                                                                                                           Leon Osman v                                                                                                   tactics                                     Charles Wollaston
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (The Wanderers 1872, 73, 76, 77, 78)
Everton are 56 per cent as good as Chelsea.
But the two are much closer in defence
than in attack. Everton have the fifth-ranked
defence while Chelsea is ranked second,
                                                                                                                           Michael Essien                                                                                                 Everton’s success comes from
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          their high workrate,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          organisation and ability to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Arthur Kinnaird
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (The Wanderers 1873, 77, 78 & Old Etonians 1879, 82)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jimmy Forrest
but David Moyes’s side is 77 per cent as                     Draw
good as Chelsea at the back. Going forward
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          grind out results, and every                (Blackburn Rovers 1884, 85, 86, 90,91)
is a different story since Everton are                       (extra time)                                                                                                                                                                 few games they produce a
                                                                                                                            The focus is usually on Tim Cahill as
mid-table as an attacking side.                              26.2%                                                                                                                                                                        sparkling performance. The              Four times winners
                                                                                                                            Everton’s danger man from midfield
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          trouble for David Moyes’s side
Dr Henry Stott, Dr Mark Latham and Dr Ian                                                                                   and Steven Pienaar has been                                                                                                                               Ashley Cole
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          is that Chelsea have all those
Graham use the model that generates these
                                                                                                       Chelsea              eye-catching lately, but Osman is                                                                                                                         (Arsenal 2002, 03, 05, Chelsea 2007)
rankings to produce probabilities for the                                                                                                                                                                                                 qualities as well, and they’re
                                                                                                                            unsung and underrated. He’s a clever
match.                                                                                                 53.2%                                                                                                                              more physically imposing and                Joe Lofthouse
                                                                                                                            player with a good shot who pops up
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          have greater firepower.
After 90 minutes there is a 53.2 per cent                                                                                   with goals occasionally — he scored                                                                                                                       Mark Hughes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Everton won’t risk trying to
chance that Chelsea will lift the Cup. At the                                                                               twice away to Fulham last Sunday.
same stage there is a 20.7 per cent shot that                                                                                                                                                                                             open the game up against                    David Seaman
                                                              Everton                                                       Essien roves the midfield picking up
Everton will be heading up those stairs to                                                                                                                                                                                                superior opponents so it’ll be
collect a victory medal. And there is a 26.2                                                                                the free man and he’s stronger,                                                                                                                           Ray Parlour
                                                              20.7%                                                                                                                                                                       a bitty, dogged afternoon
per cent chance that the game will go to                                                                                    quicker and more energetic than
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          with lots of fouls — tricky for             Roy Keane
extra time. There is then a 13.7 per cent                                                                                   Osman, but the Everton player has the
chance of a penalty shoot-out.                                                                                                                                                                                                            the referee. Everton will have
                                                                                                                            intelligence to lose him and suddenly
In total, that means that Chelsea have a
                                                                                                                            appear in a dangerous area
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          the edge in the stands: their               Ryan Giggs                                                            The Wanderers
68.4 per cent chance of giving Guus                                                                                                                                                                                                       fans will be louder. Chelsea’s
Hiddink a cup as a farewell gift, while Moyes                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     An Everton victory would mean six different FA Cup winners in six years for the first time since 1976-81
has a 31.6 per cent chance of Cup glory                                                                                                                                                                                                   are so used to finals that they
                                                   13.7 per cent chance of a penalty shootout                                                                                                                                             will be more blasé
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1977                                                    1979                             1981
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Prediction:
When the third-round draw was made...                                                                                                                                                                                                       Chelsea 1 Everton 0
...the Fink Tank made Chelsea favourites to win the FA        Cup winners.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1976                                                1978                                          1980
Cup. They had a 29.4 per cent chance of winning the           By the time they reached the quarter-finals, Chelsea’s                                                                                                                                                              Southampton                Man Utd                      Ipswich                         Arsenal       West Ham        Tottenham
trophy and a 43.7 per cent chance of being in the final.      chance of winning the trophy had risen to 35 per cent
Punters and bookies’ odds often underestimate the             and Everton’s to 9 per cent. And at this stage, Everton
chance of the FA Cup being won by one of the “big             already had a 26 per cent chance of making it to the
four” sides.                                                  final.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2005                                                        2007                             2009


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ?
So it is hardly surprising that Chelsea are playing           Normally the act of winning the quarters would have
today. More so, of course, Everton. But even they had         seen Everton’s chance rise. But they were booked to
a reasonable shot. At the start of their FA Cup               meet Manchester United. Their victory against United
campaign they had an 8.2 per cent chance of being at          was an upset, but not a miracle. They had a 27 per cent                                                                                                                                                                  2004                                                 2006                                          2008
Wembley today. And a 3.1 per cent chance of being             chance of winning that game
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Man Utd                 Arsenal                     Liverpool                       Chelsea       Portsmouth        Everton
How the Fink Tank rated Everton and Chelsea's chances back in January
                                                                                                                        Route to the final                                                                                                                                        This is the first FA Cup final played
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  between teams whose two league
To reach 4th                                                                                                98.4%       Chelsea v                Everton v
round                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             meetings that season ended goalless
                                                                                                         93.9%                Semi-final:              Semi-final:
To reach 5th                                                                                       87.2%                      Arsenal                  Manchester United


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0                       0
round                                                                                                                         (n) 2-1                  (n) 0-0 (4-2 on pens)
                                                                            61.6%
To reach                                                                               74.3%                                                                                                                                                                                      Dec 22, 2008 Everton                    Chelsea
quarter-final
                                                  36.5%
To reach
semi-final
                                  18.8%
                                                                        60.3%                                                 Sixth round:
                                                                                                                              Coventry City
                                                                                                                              (a) 2-0
                                                                                                                                                       Sixth round:
                                                                                                                                                       Middlesbrough
                                                                                                                                                       (h) 2-1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Apr 22, 2009 Chelsea        0           Everton     0
To reach                                                   43.7%
final
                       8.2%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Joleon Lescott of Everton
                                                                                        Chelsea
To win the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  attempts to block a pass by
                                            29.4%
FA Cup                                                                                  Everton                               Fifth round:             Fifth round:                                                                                                                                         Frank Lampard of Chelsea
                  3.1%                                                                                                        Watford                  Aston Villa                                                                                                                                          during their last match in April
                                                                                                                              (a) 3-1                  (h) 3-1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Today's match is five days later than any other FA                                                      Finals played in each month
Everton will miss Mikel Arteta                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Cup Final. The early finals from 1872 were in March,


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  it was mainly April from the 1890s to 1951, then May
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  since then (except 1969 and 1970)
                                                                                                                              Fourth round:            Fourth round:
The Fink Tank rankings, based on
                                             Everton (possible 4-4-1-1)                         Time-Adjusted points
                                                                                                                              Ipswich Town             Liverpool                                                                                                                  Number of times the final has been played on each day in May                                                March


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        53
every action taken on the pitch,                                                                                              (h) 3-1                  (a) 1-1; (h) 1-0
ranks Arteta as clearly Everton’s
                                                                             Howard
best player, at 6.7                                                           5.70                                                                                                                                                                                                4                                                                     4
Using our measure — points added                 Hibbert           Yobo                Lescott           Baines                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           April
compared to the average player in                                                                                             Third round:             Third round:                                                                                                                   3 3 3 3 3                       3       3           3 3       3       3
the same position playing for an                   -1.75           -0.34                1.48              0.99                                                                                                                  Everton (possible; 4-4-1-1)
                                                                                                                              Southend                 Macclesfield



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              57
average team — Arteta adds one                                                                                                United                   Town                                                                                       T Howard
full extra point a season over the               Osman             Neville             Cahill            Pienaar                                                                                                                                                                                    2       2 2                       2         2
                                                                                                                              (h) 1-1; (a) 4-1         (a) 1-0
next best Everton player. And that’s
Tim Howard, the goalkeeper. Arteta                                                                                                                                                                                              A Hibbert   J Yobo      J Lescott     L Baines
                                                  -1.43             -1.39               1.99              0.85                                                                                                                                                                                          1         1       1       1                                   1             1
is more than 4 points a season                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   May
better than Tim Cahill, the next best                                         -0.40
outfield player. After them comes                                                      Fellaini                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0 0       0 0 0 0
Joleon Lescott, Leighton Baines
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                L Osman     P Neville    T Cahill     S Pienaar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 2930
and then Steven Pienaar. Consider                                                      Saha
                                                                              0.23
the numbers carefully. Arteta is                                                                                                                                                                                                                        M Fellaini
worth 0.27 points per game above                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Everton, having finished in fifth, two league places behind Chelsea, must buck a trend
that of an average player. That’s                                                                                                                                                                                                            L Saha                               Only two FA Cup Final victories by lower-ranked
very, very roughly (it depends who                  2.37                      -0.40                      4.68
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  league team in past 13 seasons
the replacement is) what Everton
are missing out on.                              Malouda                     Drogba                    Anelka
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                F Malouda          D Drogba           N Anelka                                                                               2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               -01
Chelsea’s top players are Petr Cech,                7.65                       1.28                      0.90
Frank Lampard, Nicolas Anelka and                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Liverpool (left)
John Obi Mikel. There is only one                                                                                                                                                                                                                  M Essien                                                                                                 (3rd in league)
                                                 Lampard                      Essien                    Ballack                                                                                                                 F Lampard                             M Ballack
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            beat
player who has performed worse
than the average in that position                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Arsenal (2nd)
over the season. His name? Why,                    -0.90            2.71                 1.91            -0.64
Didier Drogba.                                                                                                                                                                                                                   A Cole     J Terry         Alex     J Bosingwa
                                                  A Cole            Terry               Alex          Bosingwa                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2006
Taking the goalies out, Chelsea                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                -07
would be able to field an entire side                                         9.95                                        Kick-off: 3pm                            Venue: Wembley                                                                  P Cech                                                                                                   Chelsea (2nd)
every member of which performed                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             beat
better than every member of the                                               Cech                                        Television: Live, Setanta Sports1,       Referee: H Webb                                                     Chelsea (possible; 4-3-3)                                                                                            Man Utd (1st)
Everton side, with the exception of                                                                                       from 9am; ITV1 from 1pm                                                                                                                                                                                                           (right)
Tim Cahill                                   Chelsea (possible; 4-3-3)                                                                                                               Additional reporting Bill Edgar