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ARIZONAHOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS - The Federal

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					ARIZONA: HOUSING AND
LABOR MARKET TRENDS


                                        January 2013


Community Development Research
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
National Trends
                                  Composition of distressed sales by geography

                                              Proportion of Distressed Property Transactions—November 2012
                                  60%
  Percent of Total Transactions




                                  40%

                                        29%    29%   26%
                                                                                                                      Short Sale
                                                            11%
                                                                  10%
                                                                                                                      Move-In Ready REO
                                                                                 11%        5%                        Damaged REO
                                                                         15%
                                  20%                                                                12%        5%
                                                            12%   10%                       8%
                                        9%           11%                         11%
                                               12%                       7%                                    11%
                                                                                                      6%
                                                            12%   13%                      13%
                                        9%            9%                 8%       8%                  7%        7%
                                               6%
                                  0%




Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions November 2012
                        Neighborhood stabilization: concerns over
                        investor purchases of distressed properties
                                                  Who Is Buying Properties? ─ November 2012


                                 100%
                                                                                                  12%
                                                        19%
                                                                           29%
      Percent of Property Type




                                 75%
                                         61%                                                      33%

                                                        46%                                                           Investor
                                 50%                                       38%                                        First-Time Homebuyer
                                                                                                                      Current Homeowner

                                         21%                                                      55%
                                 25%
                                                        35%                32%
                                         18%

                                  0%
                                        Damaged     Move-In Ready       Short Sale         Non-Distressed
                                          REO           REO

Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions November 2012
                                  Financing for home purchases
                                                                Financing for Homebuyers ─ November 2012

                                            100%
                                                                                                   17%
                                                                                22%
                                                          30%
       Percent of Buyer-Side Transactions




                                                                                                   7%
                                            75%                                  6%                2%
                                                          5%
                                                                                15%                                   All Other Financing
                                                                                                                      VA
                                                          22%
                                            50%                                                                       Fannie/Freddie
                                                                                                                      FHA
                                                                                                   74%                Cash
                                                          18%                   48%

                                            25%

                                                          25%

                                                                                 9%
                                             0%
                                                   Current Homeowners   First-Time Homebuyers    Investors
Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions November 2012
Arizona Trends
                         Arizona’s unemployment rate keeping pace with US;
                         down to 7.8 percent

                         12



                         10
Unemployment Rate (%)




                          8



                          6                                         United States


                          4
                                                                         Arizona

                          2



                          0
                           2000              2002            2004        2006        2008   2010   2012
                                                                         Recession
                        Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                    Arizona house prices beginning to rebound

                                                               FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index
                                                                            (2000=100, quarterly)
                             240



                                                                                           Arizona
FHFA House Price Index




                             190
                         2000=100




                                                                                           United States


                             140




                                    90
                                         2000   2001   2002   2003   2004    2005   2006    2007     2008   2009   2010   2011   2012

    Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
                                     House prices stable in most metros; Phoenix-Mesa area
                                     prices are on the rise

                                                   FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index
                                                                (2000 = 100)
                          230


                          210
FHFA House Price Index




                          190
                         2000=100




                          170


                          150                                                                           Flagstaff

                                                                                                           Yuma
                          130

                                                                                                          Tucson
                          110
                                                                                                    Phoenix-Mesa
                               90
                                    2000    2002       2004         2006         2008        2010            2012

    Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
                           Number of delinquent mortgages and properties in
                           foreclosure process continues to fall

                           200,000




                           160,000
     Number of Mortgages




                           120,000




                            80,000




                            40,000




                                0
                                     2005   2006          2007            2008   2009         2010        2011   2012
                                                   Loans in Foreclosure                 All Mortgages Past Due
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
      Consumer debt delinquency down from 2010 peak


14%                                       Consumer Debt Delinquency Rate

12%

                                                                              Arizona
10%


8%
                                                                         U.S.
6%


4%


2%


0%
      2006             2007             2008              2009             2010              2011             2012

 Note: Delinquency status of 90+ days past due or worse. Excludes first mortgage. Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel
               Asking rent has increased as vacancy rate falls in
               Phoenix
                                      Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Phoenix
                                                                     Quarterly
              $800                                                                                                                    15%
                                                         Asking Rent        Vacancy Rate




              $770                                                                                                                    10%




                                                                                                                                            Vacancy Rate
Asking Rent




              $740                                                                                                                    5%




              $710                                                                                                                    0%
                     2008              2009                    2010                     2011                    2012
 Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average
 based on the number of units in each size category.
               Tucson rents up; vacancy rate stable

                                                Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Tucson
                                                                              Quarterly
              $700                                                                                                                              12%
                                                                  Asking Rent         Vacancy Rate




              $670




                                                                                                                                                       Vacancy Rate
Asking Rent




                                                                                                                                                6%


              $640




              $610                                                                                                                              0%
                       2008                     2009                     2010                    2011                     2012
              Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted
              average based on the number of units in each size category.
Arizona Data Maps
Arizona Data Maps
          Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures
                                                       November 2012




        Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Arizona Data Maps
               Areas At Risk Of Additional Foreclosures
                                                       November 2012




        Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Phoenix Data Maps
          Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures
                                                       November 2012




        Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Phoenix Data Maps
                Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures
                                                       November 2012




        Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Tucson Area Data Maps
Oregon Data Maps
          Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures
                                                       November 2012




        Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Tucson Area Data Maps
                Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures
                                                       November 2012




        Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Conclusions
For More Information:
FRBSF Community Development Website
   Links to other resources
    and research on
    foreclosure trends and
    mitigation strategies
   All publications,
    presentations available on
    our website
   Conference materials also
    posted shortly after
    events


        http://www.frbsf.org/community/

				
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