0209scobell

Document Sample
0209scobell Powered By Docstoc
					          S
 C H IN A ’ G ROW ING M IL ITA R Y POW E R :
PE R PE C TIV E S ON SE C URITY,B A L L ISTIC
    M ISSIL E S,A N D C ONV E N TIONA L
              C A PA B IL ITIE S




                    ie y
                 E d t db
              Andrew Scobell
                    and
             L arry M . W ortzel




              Sep tem ber 2002
                                   *****
             e                 n    s p
     Th e v i w s exp res s edi th i re ort are th ose ofth e auth ors anddo
       cs       l fe t           fcal i y          ti
notne e s ari y re l c th eofi i p ol c or pos i on ofth eD ep artm ent of
                                       ens                            nt.
th e A rm y ,th e D ep artm ent ofD ef e, or th e U.S. G ov ernm e Th i    s
         s learedf pubi releas e; ds tri uti i unl m i .
rep ort i c          or      lc          i b on s           i ted


                                   *****
                        ni          s             nv ted and s h ould b
     C om m ents p ertai ng to th i rep ort are i i                        e
 orw     ed        rec              c     is
f ard to: D i tor, Strategi Stude Ins titute, U.S. A rm y W ar
            2      e     .,    i             -5 4         e         s
C ollege,12 F orb s A v e C arl s le,PA 17013 2 4 . C op i s ofth i rep ort
        e t ne rom th e Pubi ati O fi eb c ng (
m ay b ob ai df                l c ons fc y alli 717)2 5 -4 13 ,  4        3
FAX (         4    82        a
        717) 2 5 -3 0, or v i th e Internet at Ri                    arl s e
                                                    ta.Rum m el@ c i l .
arm y .m il


                                   *****
                  ,                              c       is
     M ost 19 9 3 19 9 4 , andall later Strategi Stude Insti      tute ( SSI)
m onograp h s are av ai                               p        or
                            lable on th e SSI H om e age f electroni         c
 i
ds s em inati         s                d      s:                arl sle.arm y .
               on. SSI’ H om ep age ad res s i h ttp ://w w w .c i
             /w l om
m il/us as s i e c e.h tm


                                   *****
                     c      is         i           ls
     Th e Strategi Stude In s t tute pub i h es a m onth ly e-m ai             l
                    ate
new s letter to up d th enati             uri om          ty
                                  onals ec ty c m uni on th eresearc of     h
                    c nt
our analy s ts , re e and f             om ng       l c ons
                                  orth c i p ubi ati , a                 om ng
                                                                  nd upc i
  onf      e            d y
c erenc s s p ons ore b th e I ti                h                        d
                                    ns tute. E ac new sletter als o p rov i es a
         c om
s trategi c m e             y                         h
                   ntary b one of our res earc analy sts . If y ou are
i            n     e v ng     s     w                               y -m l
 nteres tedi rec i i th i n e s letter,p leas e let us know b e ai at
         h arl s e              l     y a l ng 717)2 5 -3 3
outreac @ c i l .arm y .m i or b c l i (                4    13 .




ISB N 1-5 84 87-09 3-1




                                      ii
                        CONTE N TS



F orew ord
    A m b s ad Jam e R. L i l y · · · · · · · · · · · · · · v
         as   or    s      le
        na’                   rm         c
1. C h i s Res p onse to a F i er A m eri a
    And w Sc e andL arry M . W ortz l · · · · · · · · · 1
         re   ob ll                     e
                                       S
PA RT I: PE RSPE C TIV E S ON C H IN A ’ SE C URITY
A N D M IL ITA RY POW E R· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·17
 .         e rom B e ji U.S.-C h i Se uri Relati
2 Th e V i w f          i ng:       na c ty            ons
   rom K os ov o to Sep tem b r 11,2
   f                          e     001
    D av i M . F i l t i · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 19
          d       nke s e n
 .      e rom Toky o: C h i s G row i M i
3 A V iw f                 na’       ng litary Pow er
             gni i anc or       s
   andIts Si fc e f Jap an’ N ati              c ty
                                       onal Se uri
    H i e K ane a · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 6 3
       d aki     d
        e rom M os c : C h i s G row i M ii
4 . A V iw f             ow      na’        ng     l tary Pow er
     Anatoly V . B oly atko · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 81
                   S
PA RT II: C H IN A ’ B A L L ISTIC M ISSIL E S
A N D E A ST A SIA N RE A C TION TO U.S.
M ISSIL E D E F E N SE IN ITIA TIV E S · · · · · · · · · · 105
         nes       s c s l           e n
5 . C h i e B alli ti M i s i e F orc s i th e A ge ofG lobal
        s le
    M i s i D ef ense: C h allenges andRes p onses
                    s
     M ark A . Stoke · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·107
         nes       ti                  ti v           s l
6 . C h i e Reac ons to New U.S. Ini ati es on M i s i e
        ens
    D ef e
     E ri A . M c ad · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 16 9
         c       V on
               an   ti              s l       ense: Torn
7. E as t A s i Reac ons to U.S. M i s i e D ef
    e             i                            ti
   b tw een Tac t Sup p ort andOv ert Op p os i on
    Tae o K i · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 19 9
         h      m




                                i
                               ii
PA RT III: IM PROV E M E N TS IN PL A
C O N V E N TIONA L C A PA B IL ITIE S: FORC E
                                                     2
PROJE C TION A N D A IR FORC E L OG ISTIC S· · · · ·2 1
           ut        y    e       c on:
8. Rough b Read F orc Proje ti A n A s s es s m ent
        c nt
   ofRe e PL A Trai ng ni
                                                             2
    Sus an M . Pus ka · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 2 3
         s c             or        r     e
9 . L ogi ti s Sup p ort f PL A A i F orc C am p aigns
                                                            5
     K e t W . A lle · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 2 1
        nne h          n
A B OUT TH E C ONTRIB UTORS · · · · · · · · · · · ·307




                              iv
                          FORE W ORD



                            na
    Th e tenor ofU.S.-C h i relati         or      h         i
                                      ons f m uc ofth e frs t y ear
          m ni       on          d
ofth ead i strati ofPres i ent G eorgeW . B us h w as s etb a     y
 ri s           e                c       .
c s i th at ne d not h av e oc urred H ow th e s i            on
                                                        tuati w as
      led                                s ns        ti
h and and ev entually res olv ed i i truc v e. It tells us
ab         ee            om
   out a b l agueredc m uni t lead s             p n       uid
                                           ersh i i th e b l up to
                 i            ti     s h ul d or
m ajor generat onal transi on ( c ed e f late 2              002 and
         003
early 2 ) andth e m ettle of a d oc c   em rati ally electedU.S.
                 s            n ts             y
gov ernm ent te tedearly i i tenure b a s eri s of f i  e      ore gn
   i y ri
p ol c c s es anda c    aref ully c oordnate s et of d as tati
                                         i    d           ev       ng
        s
terrori t s tri        nst
               kes agai th e c    onti             ted
                                      nental Uni States .
    Th e w ay th e A p ri 2             ri s
                            l 001 c s i on H ai             s
                                                      nan I land w as
           m       e h         up           c    or
res olv ed us tb c alked as a suc es s f th eUni States .    ted
Th e key w as W as h i          s blt           onv nc
                          ngton’ a i i y to c i e B e ji th ati ng
      i
h oldng th e ai c                     ng,            v    i
                 r rew w as h urti andnot ad anc ng,C h i e         nes
i                   s          ng i ng
 nteres ts . Th at i s om eth i B e ji s eem s not to h av egras p ed
           th             ng,
w h en,w i out w arni th e E P-3 sud e                         ow
                                              d nly s w ep t d n onto
th e runw ay i H ain                ri ng a treas u re trov e of
                           kou, b ngi
          c      l c roni s and2 A m eri ans ,w h o lookedat frs t
super-s e ret e e t        c        4         c                      i
     e        b e argai ng c i s . W i th e p lane andth ec ,
to b v alua l b           ni     h p       th                       rew
     na           to            e ard           bh
C h i s eem ed h oldth eb s t c s and e av edac ordngly .     c i
               ers                     or
Th e top lead w h o A m bas s ad Jos ep h Prueh er h adtri dto     e
 ulti        i                 s alls            nes
c v ate ddnot return h i c ,andC h i e Pres i ent Ji        d        ang
  e n, ter e             i
Z m i af d m andng an ap ology f            rom W as h i          t or
                                                        ngton,lef f a
     n          c                              c
L ati A m eri an tour. L et th e A m eri an s s tew i th i f n     s or
      le, ang’ m es s age s eem edto b .
aw h i Ji        s                           e
    B ut W as h i                      uc h
                 ngton m anaged to red e t e v alue of th os e
        ni    h p      s      one i      y      ng l ar
bargai ng c i s . Th i w as d ,frs t,b m aki c e th at no
    s      v onc s ons          b      e      c      i
sub tanti ec e s i w ould em ad to s e ureth e r releas e;
     , c      ,y           i   i ng
and s e ond b p ersuadng B e ji th at c        nui
                                           onti ng to h oldth e
        c            ri         am
A m eri ans w ouldb ng real d age to C h i e ines nteres ts . A s
 ndgnati m ountedi th e Uni States , e onom i d
i i        on            n         ted         c     c angers
 e                       na’     z            i ng
b gan to loom on C h i s h ori on. Th e B e ji gov ernm ent,
  ter
af all,c                 s ng       ard i ng       i t i
            ounts on a ri i s tand ofl v i to l m i ds s ent,
     ev         e os      ce              ri an
and en a bri fl s ofa c s s to th eA m e c m arket c    ouldb   e

                                  v
 am
d agi               i     an
         ng. Nor dd A s i ne gh bi ors rally to s u p p ort C h ina.
                          n      v                   i ng’
Th ey w orry , m os tly i p ri ate, about B e ji s grow i         ng
   l tary s trength andas s erti enes s . Th e State D ep artm ent
m ii                               v
 oy ottedC h i e em b s y f ti
b c             nes       as                         c
                                 unc ons andSe retary ofState
    i                l    f ng                    ond
C ol n Pow ell, w h i e oferi regrets and c olenc s — ev ene
                                                 nes    l
ev entually s orrow ov er th e los s ofth e C h i e p iot— s h ow ed
    nci       on    ons d                       na em
no i l nati to c i er th e ap ology C h i d and .          ed
                        ti           n     i ng, h ow ev er, m ay h av e
     Th e m os t s ens i v e nerv e i B e ji
  en                  c         ng               n     i ap tal s
b e th e Oly m p i s . H av i th e gam es i th e r c i i a
  h     s         nes        rati                      e
c eri h edC h i e as p i on,andw h en m em b rs ofC ongres s
  e               zng         n    t           ri s ev
b gan organi i agai s t i as th e c s i d elop ed th e            ,
      nes        a                                          i
C h i e em b s s y took th e unusual s tep of s endng rath er
     p                        f ers            l as ng
sni p y letters to th e ofend . Only re e i th e h os tages
c              by                              at,
  ouldp os s i l rem ov e th e v ery real th re andev en th en not
    th e nty             e i ng’ e i on
w i c rtai . H enc B e ji s dc s i to s end ec         th rew h om e   ,
      c        e    e e                  h or
w h i h ,onc m ad ,b gan th e s earc f a li            s c orm ula to
                                                  ngui ti f
          n t.
exp lai i W as h i                        n ac            z , ut
                      ngton h adnot, i f t, ap ologi ed b w e
c                          i ng rom pulli som e ofw h at w e h ad
  ouldnot p rev ent B e ji f                ng
    d
s ai out ofc                           ng t
                ontext andp res enti i th rough s tate-c      ontrolled
       i
m eda as b i          n ac                      na’        ers
               e ng, i f t, th e ap ology C h i s lead s ough t.
Th at,p lus th eusual “h um ani an ctari        d       ons ”
                                            onsi erati , p rov i ed d
     fc e         r
sufi i nt cov e to endth e c s i .ri s
            c        re       nd th              nes
     A m eri ans w e rem i ed at th eC h i e are not alw ay s
    i ri nd            te
th e r f e s . D es p i s om ereal ec         c
                                      onom i p rogres s ,th eregi em
    l ten b c es c rontati
s ti l of     e om       onf                th ts
                                    onal w i i ow n peop le and
   th
w i oth er c           e
               ountri s . Th e Uni             s
                                    tedState m us t treat i w it th
       enc               c       gi
p rud e and res p e t, h ed ng agai        nst d   angers ev en as i  t
                           tv    ev
s eeks to p rom ote p os i i e d elop m ent. B y th e s am e token,
     na        en         nd
C h i h as b e rem i edth at W as h i                         e
                                            ngton cannot b reli d    e
              ed                              olli e.
up on to y i l w h en th e tw o s tates c d Our grow i              ng
  c
e onom i i             n      na
          c nteres ts i C h i and              s or uturep os i v e
                                     our h op e f a f             ti
        ons p     th       na          e         v
relati h i w i C h i w ouldb negati ely afe tedi our     fc      f
 und                    c
f am ental A m eri an nati      onali                   om    tm
                                      nteres ts or our c m i ents
      em   rati ri nd               e n        a
to d oc c f e s and alli s i A si are c allenged b     h              y
Ch i na.
         ng       ri                 nes h
    D uri th e p e odth at th e C h i e c angedc      , rom
                                                ours e f
      ng onc s ons to s eeki an exi th e Uni
s eeki c e s i                ng         t,      ted States


                                  vi
  alm
c ly f            d      e ures . F i t th e A m b s ad th en th e
           ollow e p roc d           rs           as    or,
    c                         ri f          c        d
Se retary ofState— andb e ly th e V i e Pres i ent— took th e
        gh       ei                  tati
s p otli t to d l v er an auth ori v e “no” to th e d andfem       or
                                                   s th
ap ology . Skilled State D ep artm ent w ord m i s c         obbled
                 cs      raf                           na ov
togeth er a p re i ely c tedletter th at gav e C h i c er,b        ut
                   d nt          h             d           s
no m ore. Pres i e B us h c oreograp h e all of th i , m os tly
  e nd           e                                       d
b h i th e s c nes ,andearnedour ap p laus e. Pres i ent Ji      ang
                   onc ud
s eem s to h av e c l edth at th e m atter s h ould b h ande      led
        i ous      th i l ans,not th e PL A taki th eleadi th e
exp edti ly w i c v ii                             ng          n
         ati         e
negoti ons. Onc th e H ai               s     nc d
                               nan I landI i ent w as res olv ed
                c lari                    z          w
and s trategi c ty w as em p h as i edon Tai an, th e U.S.
              f
m ov eds w i ly to p ut ec         c                         a,
                           onom i s at th e top ofour agend and
     na’
C h i s entry i                     e om        i      ori
                  nto th e W TO b c e th ef rs t p ri ty .
           s         , om     s                 gi
      Th i v olum e c p ri edofp ap ers ori nally p res entedat a
  onf         e l            i           ks n
c erenc h e dat C arl s leB arrac i Sep tem b r 2         e 001,h elp s
                   i               nc d
to p ut th e H a nan Is land i i ent i th e bn       road c er ontext of
       na’
C h i s s trategi as p ic       rations and its grow i             l tary
                                                            ng m i i
  ap                                    e
c abilities . I am p roud to b a p ri e i ti    m      ni ator of th i   s
  onf         e                 s b       on             c
c erenc on th e Peop le’ L i erati A rm y ,w h i h h as b e an    en
                   or                  e ad               s onf
annual ev ent f m ore th an a d c e. L as t y ear’ c erenc ’            es
  o-                                  c              s
c s p on s ors w ere th e A m eri an E nterp ri e In s ti      tute, th e
H eri                ati
        tage F ound on,andth eU.S. A rm y W ar C ollege. F or th e
f            ons c v                               s
 ourth c e uti e y ear, th e W ar C ollege’ Strategi Stude     c        is
Insti          s     l s ng            e dngs            ne h
         tute i p ub i h i th e p roc e i . Th e ni c ap ters i          n
     s
th i v olum e, all w ri          y     i             ov        i
                         tten b leadng exp erts ,c er a dv ers e s et
       m                 c
of i p ortant top i s : E as t A s i                c v
                                        an p ers p e ti es on C h i sna’
   c ty           ii                             nes alli c s l
s e uri am b t ons ,th e s tatus ofth e C h i e b s ti m i s i e
p rogram and regi                    ti                   s
                         onal reac ons to U.S. m i s ile d en s e ef
 ni ati                  na’         m
i ti v es ,andC h i s ev er-i p rov i c enti ng onv                l tary
                                                           onal m ii
  ap b l t e         om
c a i i i s . I c m endC h i s G row i M ii ary Pow e to
                                    na’         ng      lt            r
y ou.




                                                           L
                           A M B A SSA D OR JA M E S R. L I L E Y
                                or
                           Seni F ellow
                                  c             s
                           A m eri an E nterp ri e Institute


                                  vii
                           C H A PTE R 1



                           S
                  C H IN A ’ RE SPONSE
                 TO A F IRM E R A M E RIC A

                        A ndrew Scobell
                       L arry M . W ortzel



            d                                 e t l ar
     Pres i ent G eorge W . B us h m ad i c e as a c i ate       andd
 or fc                        iy                na     l
f ofi e th at U.S. p ol c tow ardC h i “w i l requi tough         re
        s             d
reali m .” Pres i en ti C an ddal                         s
                                          i ate B us h ’ s p eec on   h
             e 3                       tad
Sep tem b r 2 , 19 9 9 ,at th e C i el,th e m ii       l tary c   ollege of
South C arol na,f
                i     ores h ad ed i frm ap p roac to B e ji 1
                                 ow    h s i                h        i ng.
                  h          i ate
In th at s p eec ,C andd B us h rec                   or
                                               alledf th e A m eri an   c
                    n            ter               on
p eop le th at “i 19 9 6 , af s om e tensi ov er Tai an, a         w
     nes                      nd            c              na
C h i e general rem i edA m eri a th at C h i p os s es s es
                       n i
th e m ean s to i c n erate L os A ngeles w i nuclear        th
              2
    s ls
m i s i e .” B us h f                   n           h n m
                        ollow ed up i a s p eec i Si i V alley ,
       f      a, th                     n
C ali orn i w i th e w arn i g to C h i a th at i i an              t s
 c
“ om p eti                         c          ”
             tor,not a s trategi p artner, th at th eUni States ted
          d            gh          i ng     m          i
w ould eny th eri t ofB e ji to i p os eth e r ruleon a f               ree
            Tai       ,
p eop le ( w an) andth at th e Uni                                  d
                                               ted States w oul h elp
Tai an d end i elf3 H e als o m ad c e early i th e
     w        ef       ts .                      e l ar              n
 am        gn                              alli c s l ef
c p ai th at h ew ouldp ursueb s ti m i s i ed ensef                     or
                          4
th e Uni                                       ers p
            ted States . Th us , th e lead h i of th e C h i e         nes
              s             n     i ng
C om m uni t Party i B e ji h ad early noti e th at th ey  c
                 e eali          th          d
w ouldnot b d ng w i a Pres i ent W i l am J. C l ntonli             i
          ons d             na       e              c
w h o c i ered C h i to b a “s trategi p artner” of th e
      ted
Uni States .
            i ng, th i w as a v ery dferent A m eri a. Und
    F or B e ji       s              if            c       er
   i            ore gn     iy                       ii
C l nton,U.S. f i pol c w as generally m ores ol c tous of
   i ng.
B e ji D ef          fc als        f     na th
              ense ofi i ran of to C h i w i p ac    kages of
  eli       ls                 nes      om          c
“d v erab e ” th at th e C h i e h adc e to exp e t out of
m eeti      n     c           ted                     i
       ngs i w h i h th e Uni States s ough t m ore dalogue

                                    1
       oop      on
andc erati betw een th e arm edf e ofeac c     orc s      h ountry .
   i                ed         na’         h
C l nton res p ond to C h i s M arc 19 9 6 m i s i e l         h
                                                      s l aunc es
   f      w        th                c
of Tai an w i tw o A m eri an ai raf carri r b rc t        e attle
group s .5 H ow ev er,onc th eTai an elec ons w ereov er later
                            e        w           ti
                  i         i      h
th at m onth ,C l nton ds p atc edNati                c ty
                                               onal Se uri C ounc li
                               fc als
andState D ep artm ent ofi i to Tai an to enc  w         ourage th e
      ers           s                       er
lead ofth at i landto w ork h ard at getti along w i  ng         th
              s         lc
th ePeop le’ Rep ubi ofC h i (               .         iy
                                  na PRC ) Th us p ol c s eem ed  to
     il                    i    ore gn       iy i
v ac l ate betw een a frm f i p ol c l ne tow ardC h i           na
and                              ate           nes      ers p
      oneth at s ough t to p lac th eC h i elead h i w h en
i c p lai
 t om        nedab    out th e U.S. p os i on.6
                                          ti
          e               fc , i ng i        h       cs v
    Onc B us h took ofi e B e ji ds p atc eds uc e s i ely
                     ip
h igh er- lev el d lom ats to W as h in gton — f       orm er
      as    ors ore gn        ni      fc als
am b s ad , f i m i s try ofi i , and ad i ers to    v s
     nes          d
C h i e Pres i ent Ji            em n—
                           ang Z i to gauge th e W h i      te
         s     ti           na        w
H ous e’ p os i on on C h i andTai an. Th i c  s ulm inatedi n
        s t
th e v i i to W as h i            c        e    an    c
                      ngton of V i e Prem i r Qi Qi h en on
       h 0, 001. Th eC h i ew ere clear on onem ajor p oi
M arc 2 2                    nes                           nt:
               h     to eli
th ey w orked ard d v er th em es s age th at th es ale ofth e
      s l         d -m s le es                   w
A egi -c as s gui ed i s i d troy er to Tai an b th e    y
Uni                           cp           , n    i ng’
     ted States w as “unac e table” and i B e ji s ey es ,
am ounted to th e c          on              anc
                        reati of a new alli e am ong th e
     ted              w
Uni States ,Tai an,andJap an.
                      ti         w         l ar.      i
    Th eB us h p os i on on Tai an w as c e H e ddnot b k      ac
aw ay f            s am    gn      ti            ll
          rom h i c p ai p os i on th at “w e’ h elp Tai an  w
  ef         ts .”            d           s
d end i elf Th e Pres i ent and h i ap p oi         ntees at th e
                                      en ,
D ep artm en ts of State an d D ef s e p oi ti    n ng to th e
           ale ui d        alli c s les
large-s c b l up ofb s ti m i s i on th eC h i ec t    nes oas
         te      w              e              i ng
op p os i Tai an, als o m ad sure th at B e ji und tood  ers
                 ted                   ts om
th at th e Uni States w ouldm eet i c m i ents und tm           er
           w            on     t Pubi
th e Tai an Relati s A c ( l c L aw 9 8-6 ) to p rov i e        d
    w
Tai an ad               ef   v           s     c
               equate d ensi e arm s and erv i es to res p ondto
           nes
th e C h i e th reat.
             l
    On A p ri 1, 2       uri       d r nterc p t b th e
                  001, d ng a m i -ai i         e     y
     nes             nes        i       rc t olli ed th
C h i eNav y ,a C h i eF -8IIfgh ter ai raf c d w i
                      c
an unarm ed A m eri an E P-3 rec          s          rc t
                                    onnai s an ce ai raf
         ng n nternati
op erati i i                 rs   en                na
                      onal ai p ac i th eSouth C h i Sea.


                                 2
              c     rc             etai       y
Th e A m eri an ai rew w as d nedb C h i f 11 d s    na or       ay
and sub    jected to length y and unp leas ant i      nterrogati  on.
     na       e          v l m
C h i m ad exp ansi ec ai s about its s ov erei terri  gn       tory ,
 nsi ng                    re    l v c
i s ti th at th e enti exc us i ee onom i z                 00 l s
                                                   c one,2 m i e
   f           nes     oas          ts
of th e C h i e c t, w as i ow n. Th e Uni               ted States
 nsi                na’         tori
i s tedth at C h i s terri al w aters ands eas extend              ed
                    ons s
out 12 m iles , c i tent w i i      th nternati     onal law . Th i s
 nc d                                        rc
i i ent, andth e treatm ent of th e ai rew , p rob         ably dd i
             onv nc              d                       c
m ore to c i e th e Pres i ent andth e A m eri an p eop le
        i                                   eal th
th at frm nes s w as th e only w ay to d w i B e ji th an i ng
                ti
any oth er ac on or s tatem ent f          i       ap tal
                                     rom e th er c i . F rom th e
         c v               n
p ers p e ti e ofm any i th e Uni                         ti
                                      tedStates , th e ac ons and
          c           nes                          onfrm
rh etori ofth e C h i e gov ernm ent w ere c i ati th at     on
              i
B eijing d d not h av e f               ly
                                 rien d in ten tions tow ard
W as h i ngton. Th e releas e ofth e c             ,
                                        rew and ev entually , th e
   rc t s                          c    ul        om
ai raf i s een as th e s uc es s f outc e of frm nes s      i
coup led w ith f     lexibility an d s u p erb in teragen cy
c      i
 oordnati f                           or fc als n
             on rom th em os t s eni ofi i i W as h i       ngton to
              e
th e m em b rs of th e ac                 ati
                             tual negoti ng team on H ai         nan
         .         ac         s     nes
Is land In th e f e ofth i ,C h i e truc              e
                                                ulenc gav e w ay to
C h i e p ragm ati m .7
     nes              s
               l 5 001, af 100 d s i ofi e Pres i ent
     On A p ri 2 , 2          ter       ay n fc ,            d
B us h res tated th at th e Uni                  ll
                                   ted States w i h elp Tai anw
  ef       ts ,         n
d endi elf andi a telev i i b                 c
                                   s on road as t w ent f  urth er,
      ng                ted           l d              t
s ay i th at th e Uni States w i l “ o w h atev er i takes ” to
  ef         w
d end Tai an agai                 nes
                         nst C h i e aggres s i on. L es t any one
m iis nterp ret jus t h ow s eri          d
                                ous Pres i ent B us h w as about
                       t                   or           s
th at s tatem ent, i w as rep eated f em p h as i . In St.
Peters b             d             h     002
          urg,F lori a,on M arc 11,2 ,D ep uty Se retary   c
of D ef                   ow tz         ng
        ense Paul W olf i , s p eaki to an aude e t at i nc h
i        ed      w     s     en        ni
 nclud Tai an ’ D ef s e M i s ter Tang Yao-m i                 ng,
rei                s
    teratedB us h ’ p led ge.

      t
Securi y Policy .

       er      i          m ni     on, l tary -to-m i
   Und th e C l nton ad i s trati m ii                   litary
c     ts             na      th     ted
 ontac betw een C h i and e Uni States w ere treated
        ne                      e
as routi m atters . In a num b r ofw ay s ,th e “E n gagem ent


                                 3
    iy               ted             ii
Pol c ” ofth e Uni States Pac fcC om m andals o treated
m iil tary c     ts    th     na                        ne v
            ontac w i C h i as m ore or les s routi , e en
  es rabe es te onc rns                  i
d i l ,d p i c e exp res s ed n th eC ongres s . F rom
       tol ll,
C ap i H i m any c                v                 onc rns th at
                        onserv ati es exp res s ed c e
suc c         ts            y       ng              s
     h ontac w ere onl h elp i th e Peop le’ L i erati  b     on
         PL
A rm y ( A )learn m ore ab               ef            ls
                              out U.S. d ense es tabi h m ent
                           th       cp   i rom th e C h i e
p lans ands y s tem s , w i no re i roc ty f                nes
  d                h          th                m ni
s i e. Th at,too,c angedw i th e B us h ad i s trati      on.
               ter          ng s               c
       Soon af as s um i h i p os t, Se retary of D ef         ense
                 eld ond teda rev i w ofm ii
D onaldRum s f c uc                       e         l tary contacts
    th     na.            e onc ud
w i C h i Th at rev i w c l edth at th e Uni States      ted
           eas
s h ould c e pursui m i  ng     litary c        ts
                                          ontac or engagem ent
    th     na                        ne       ti e.
w i C h i as a m atter ofrouti p rac c Instead f            , uture
           na
U.S.-C h i m ii    l tary c       ts            h
                            ontac and exc anges w ould b          e
  ond tedon a c e-b -c e b i , w i dc s i
c uc                  as   y as      as s                    n i
                                              th e i ons i l ne
    th
w i U.S. i                        ts
              nteres ts . C ontac s h ould b         i
                                                eneft th e Uni  ted
States ands h ouldnot s trength en th e PL A .

      s i     s
B alli t c M i s ile D efense.

     One of C andd               s              ore gn
                  i ate B us h ’ s tronges t f i pol c and iy
  ef         ti      uri       s       d al am
d ense p os i ons d ng h i p res i enti c p ai w as to   gn
c      or         s c      s le
 all f a balli ti m i s i s y s tem th at w ould d end       ef
 orw      -d                c       orc s
f ard ep loy ed A m eri an f e , U.S. alli s , and th ee
                       ted                m ,       f
h om elandofth eUni States . In Si i C ali orni h es ai :a,        d
          l,                       s le ef
“W e s til h ow ev er, need m i s i d ense s y s tem s — b       oth
th eater andnati                    om         er-i h e ,
                  onal. IfI am c m and n-c i f w e w i l            l
d elop andd l th em .”8 Ofc
  ev           ep oy                       ,       m ii
                                     ours e th ei p l c t m es s age
 n     s                     -B      s c s le A
i th i w as th at th e A nti alli ti M i s i ( B M ) Treaty
   th           e      on             e            ned
w i th e Sov i t Uni h adto b reexam i . Tw o y ears
         n   c m e 001 at th e C i el, Pres i ent B us h
later, i D e e b r 2                      tad           d
      e t     ii      l ar
m ad i exp l c tly c e th at th e Uni      tedStates m us t m ov e
b y ondth e A B M Treaty .9 Si e June 13 2 ,th e Uni
  e                              nc             , 002            ted
          s              e ons
States i no longer b c trai                  y
                                      ned b th at treaty . Th i     s
                         ng an                     nst
m eans th at A B M tes ti c go ah eadagai w arh ead of           s
any s p eed and w i i            e            ull ap b l t
                     th nterc p tors of f c a i i y . Th e
     ted         an                   oop        v
Uni States c als o w ork on c erati e p rogram s w i               th



                                 4
 ri nd             e         ond t       ng
f e s andalli s as w ell as c uc tes ti at s ea; th ings
                   b ted er
th at w ere p roh i i und th e A B M treaty .
          na          s om ng,           i ng’ c ty
     C h i s aw th i c i andB e ji s s e uri p lanners
                                                       onf
w ere not h ap p y about th e turn ofev ents . A t a c erenc on   e
arm s c            n
          ontrol i B e jii ng, C h i               e
                                    na, Sep tem b r 14 -15 , 2    000,
                v
rep res entati es f              na’
                       rom C h i s arm s c               om
                                                ontrol c m uni       ty
                                    ev       ng      alli c s le
arguedth at any attem p t at d elop i a b s ti m i s i
  ef                    n
d en s e s y s tem i th e Uni                         s nh
                                     ted States “i i eren tly
d tab l zng andw i lf ter a w orld i e arm s rac .”10 Th e
  es     ii i            l os              -w d             e
     nes
C h i e attend                               na
                    ees argued th at C h i w as th e p ri ary   m
             alli c s l ef                    a
target ofb s ti m i s i ed enses ,and Uni States goalted
w as to s eek “ab olute s e uri andm ii
                    s         c ty            l tary superi ty .”11
                                                            ori
         alli c s l ef                              en
U.S. b s ti m i s i e d enses h av e nev er b e “ai ed at   m      ”
anoth er c                            m          nc ng
             ountry . Th ey are ai ed at i om i m i s i .      s les
N oneth eles s ,f            m                                i ted
                  rom th e ti e th at th e U.S. C ongres s drec
th eD ep artm ent ofD ef          D                  alli c s l
                           ense( oD )to exp loreb s ti m i s i e
  ef         n     a n         s al
d enses i A s i i th eF i c Year 19 9 8 “Strom Th urm ond              ”
D ef                 z on t,              m              d
     enseA uth ori ati A c to th e ti e th at Pres i ent B us h
               fc , i ng
as s um edofi e B e ji rep eatedth es e argum ents i nearly n
ev ery i nternati              i
                   onalandblateralf             t oul .
                                        orum i c d A y ear af       ter
                                 d nc        na’
B us h as s um ed th e p res i e y , C h i s rep res entati es     v
conti  nuedto argue th at th e A B M Treaty c       onstitutes “th e
corners tone ofi    nternational s trategi s tab l t .”12
                                            c     ii y
                     m                   d    al am
     F rom th e ti e of th e Pres i enti c p ai           gn, th e
 nc      ng             m ni        on       e t
i om i B us h ad i s trati m ad i clear th at i                  ts
           h        na
ap p roac to C h i w oulddfer f              i      s
                                if rom C l nton’ andp erh ap s
         if rom th at ofB us h ’ f er,th e 4 1s t Pres i ent of
ev en dfer f                       s ath                   d
          ted            ter          ti                s
th eUni States . A f th eelec on,to th es urp ri eofs om e
 n       na
i C h i andth e Uni                          d
                           tedStates , Pres i ent B us h ac tually
f                               nc p                      ed n s
 ollow edth rough on th e p ri i les h e h adexp ound i h i
  am      gn       h         s       s
c p ai s p eec es . Th i s urp ri ew as th eres ult ofa f l aiure
      c      z        i    om    tm           ncp
to re ogni e th e frm c m i ent to p ri i les on th e p art
          d                s   or        e       s m ni
ofPres i entB us h and eni m em b rs ofh i ad i s trati         on
          ng rom th e r d ly -h eldc
s tem m i f             i eep                       v          i k
                                          onserv ati e Realp ol ti
b l e s .13 C h i s reac on i th ef us ofth ec ap ters i th i
  ei f           na’      ti s         oc          h        n     s
b ook.



                                  5
     na’
C h i s Reaction.

         s ook w as d elop edagai th e b kd outli
     Th i b            ev             nst       ac rop          ned
 n         i      c on
i th e frs t s e ti of th i i            uc on. Th e c erenc
                                s ntrod ti              onf        e
         z                ap          h         n      na,
organi ers s ough t to c ture th ec anges i C h i not only
 n                   c ut
i term s ofrh etori ,b als o i m iin            oc ne
                                        l tary d tri ,trai ng, ni
            w         h        n                    s i
andh ard arepurc as es ,i res p onse to B us h ’ frm er tone.
Ofc         ,     c       z         i ng              y
      ours e w ere ogni e th at B e ji h adalread taken note
          ep                         rc t arri r b
ofth e d loy m ent oftw o U.S. ai raf c           e attle group s
           c ni         w      uri                    t    s s
to th e v i i ty ofTai an d ng th e 19 9 6 Strai C ri i . B ut
               ov , s
as notedab e th i s trong m es s age w as s oon dl       i utedb   y
         onc l atory m ov es f
m ore c ii                                  i        m ni
                               rom th e C l nton ad i s trati     on
tow ard B e ji                             i          i
              i ng. A s a res ult, th e frm nes s ds p lay ed b    y
W as h i        n                            e v as
         ngton i early 19 9 6 w as not p erc i ed a p erm anent
    f n nsti onali edap p roac es to A m eri an se uri
s h i t i i tuti          z           h              c       c ty
    iy
p ol c on C h i na.
                             cd      n        e.       te
    Th en th ere w as th e ac i ent i B elgrad D es p i all of
                           n
th e U.S. ap ologies , i v es ti       ons        ac i i
                                   gati , an d f t-f n dn g
 om     s ons          n     i ng,       c   y n
c m i s i ,m any i B e ji p arti ularl i th e PL A and
th e intelli     e om         ty
            genc c m uni , rem ai suspi in     cous th at th e
  om i                nes        as    n        e n
b b ng ofth e C h i e em b s y i B elgrad i 19 9 8 w as
not an ac i ent.14
          cd
     In th is v olu m e, s om e of th e bes t an aly s ts of
c                   na                 i ng           ted
 ontem p orary C h i as s es s h ow B e ji h as reac , and
 an e xp                 t,         h
c b e ectedto reac to th e c anges i Uni    n      tedStates
 ore gn     iy                      ne    nes
f i p ol c . Th e auth ors exam i C h i e p erc p tie ons of
          ted              c     c ty       ore gn
th eUni States ,A m eri an se uri andf i pol c e i      iis n
     a,           fc                 iis
A s i andth e efe ts of th os e p ol c e on th e A s i     ii
                                                      a-Pac fc
regi  on.
         h         ,           d nkels tei D i tor ofProje t
     In c ap ter 2 D r. D av i F i        n, rec               c
     a                   or
A s i at th e C enter f N av al A naly s es , exam i       c ty
                                                    nes s e uri
relati                      na
       ons betw een C h i andth e Uni      tedStates f   rom th e
          n                        c s      ti               k
ev ents i K os ov o th ough A m eri a’ reac on to th e attac on
th e Uni                   y        s orc s
           ted States b terrori t f e of th e al-Qaed           a
netw ork. F i            n
               nkels tei argues th at th e Uni   ted States h as
s eri           e               na’ ti ti s n our tal
      ous w orri s about C h i s ac v i e i f v i areas :
     w
Tai an, th e p rol f         on                       es
                     i erati ofw eap ons ofm as s d truc on  ti


                                6
       eli
and d v ery m eans, th e i  ntenti            na’   l tary
                                  ons of C h i s m ii
     erni ati                 w           na s
m od z on p rogram s ,and h eth er C h i i attem p ti   ng
           i      y
th rough dp lom ac to p us h th e United States out of th e
Asi       ii
    a-Pac fcregion.
    In Fi          n’ e
          nkels tei s v i w , alth ough B us h andJi ang w ere
          m                   na
able to i p rov e U.S.-C h i relati                 onv
                                       ons, and to c ey th e
 m
i p res s i           n                          s
            on th at i th e w ar on terrori m at leas t,
W as h i           B i ng                 ,h
        ngton and e ji s eeey e-to-ey e t ere w as not m uc  h
                                                         15
    s     en                s t      na n
sub tanc i th e B us h v i i to C h i i Oc e 2tob r 001. B ut
       uc on n         on                      n
a red ti i tensi h as s om e v alue i and of i elf        ts ,
   c i
ac ordng to F i              n, e aus e i reas e t n s i
                   nkels tei b c           nc      d e ons
                  ted              C na om i ate
betw een th eUni States and h i c p l c s uc oth er    h
              c ty onc rn                i
key U.S. s e uri c e s as s tab lity on th e K orean
Peni                       c on                        s
      nsula andth e p ros e uti ofth e w ar on terrori m .
     Fi          n onc ud                        ns eep
        nkels tei c l es th at th ere rem ai d - s eated
            i                        na
m utual ds trus t betw een C h i and th e Uni        ted States ,
        c                      e           c ty         ls
p arti ularly am ong m em b rs ofth e s e uri es tabi h m ent
 n oth c
i b                 e
            ountri s . In B e ji               e       nf
                                i ng, a num b r of i luenti      al
   c ty
s e uri th i                                 onc ud
                nkers ap p ear to h av e c l ed th at th e
      m        je ti
ulti ate ob c v e of Uni                      iis s
                              tedStates p ol c e i to ob trucs    t
      na’ s                  c             ul     on.
C h i s ri e as a m ore ri h andp ow erf nati Th eref ,        ore
           iis n            on
“U.S. p ol c e i th eregi arei reas inc          i       th
                                           ngly fltered rough
                    i
a s et of lenses [n B e ji                       y ali ratedto
                          i ng] th at are alread c b
                  i
ensure s om e ds torti                             nes
                         on.” M ore andm ore C h i e s e uri c ty
th i              onc udng
    nkers are c l i th at th e Uni          tedStates w ants to
 c             na,
“ h ange C h i ” to “d   eter C h i ” and “ ollec i
                                   na,    to c     t ntelli  genc e
on C h i  na.” F i          n                      ep
                   nkels tei argues th at th e d th of th i       s
    s            c s           e n                   , s
m i trus t, w h i h i to a c rtai extent m utual i reas on
enough to m ai        n                 c ty i             m
                  ntai som e s ort ofs e uri dalogue ai edat
  i       ng s        e ons andav oi i c l c
ds p elli m i p erc p ti                dng onfi t.
                    , d               a,      red c
    In C h ap ter 3 H i eakiK aned a reti V i eA d i i      m ral n
        s        ti
Jap an’ M ari m e SelfD ef                 e      d              na’
                                 ense F orc s , ad res s es C h i s
      ng
grow i m ii                          ts gni i anc or
               l tary p ow er and i s i fc e f Jap an’             s
nati         c ty              a                nt
     onal s e uri . K aned m akes th e p oi th at C h i h as na
      i
us ed ts ow n m ii                       v     e     tori l m
                   l tary s trength to ad anc terri al c ai s ,
     l gnori th e s ov erei
w h ie i        ng                               s i ti
                                 gnty and juri dc on of oth er
nati       n                  na                       na
     ons i th e E as t C h i Sea andSouth C h i Sea. H e


                                7
outli                  h    teri es             i al f
       nes w h at h e c arac z as a m eth odc efort b     y
      n s                            on       i     c
C h i a’ n av y to ev en tually c trol “b ologi al an d
       i ogi al          e n      na’     p
nonb ol c res ourc s i C h i s p eri h eral w aters .” Th e
          e         a                je t     na’
res ourc s K aned s ees as th e ob c of C h i s goals are
    m     l      ers                        ep ts ut
p ri ariy und ea gas andp etroleum d os i , b als o
 i ng            s       c    ood      is
fs h i ground to s e ure f s u p p l e .
                   c ty om                   i ng’
    Th e m ajor s e uri c p onent ofB e ji s s trategy i a         s
                ef                i     s       h n”
“near-w ater d ense” ofth e “frs t i landc ai s tretc i          h ng
f                    an        s     ros
 rom th e A leuti Is land , ac s to th e K uri , th e      les
                       s                        s       w
Jap an es e Is lan d , th e Ry uky u Is land , Tai an , th e
    l p ne           s                     a
Ph ii p i Is land ,andB orneo. K aned notes th at m any of
     na’       tori l m                              s n
C h i s terri al c ai s ,th e Senkaku Is land i th e E as t
     na           th
C h i Sea,and eSp ratl and y              e s       s n
                                   Parac lI land i th eSouth
     na        all th n             m              s i
C h i Sea, f w i i th e p eri eter of th i “frs t i land       s
 h n.”
c ai H e als o argues th at c                             th n
                                ontrolofth ew aters w i i th i       s
         v      i ng        y               e t        s ut
area gi es B e ji not onl th e res ourc s i need ,b als o
              c       ti      ri
th e s trategi p os i on to b ng m i                         e
                                       litary p ow er to b ar on
    w       th      uc d ear
Tai an w i red e f ofouts i e i       d nterv enti    on.
            a ei v                       or
    K aned b l e es Jap an m us t call f m ore tran s p arenc  y
 n      nes ef           iy                           na
i C h i e d ense p ol c . H e als o argues th at C h i m us t
  e
b p rep ared to com e to agreem ents th at p erm i joi  t     nt
      oi on           ers            e y
exp l tati of und ea res ourc s b th e c               e
                                                ountri s w i  th
 om       ng l m             y onfd e ui dng
c p eti c ai s . A s earl c i enc -b l i m easures ,
        a          nv          na n
K aned s eeks to i olv eC h i i regi           f             d
                                        onal eforts to p rov i e
 or        ti      ety om at rac
f m ari m e s af , c b p i y , s top d          rug transf ,ers
c                           e n
 ontrol andendth e trad i p ers ons, andw ork to c       ontrol
env i ronm ental p olluti                    i        ti
                          on. H e takes a frm p os i on on
     s ng               on y
res i ti any exp ans i b C h i              nsi
                                   na, andi s ts th at Jap an
               y
m us t be read to c              le       c      s    e forts
                    ounter any i l gal re onnai s anc e f
 y           nes        n        s      tori
b th e C h i e nav y i Jap an’ terri al w aters . F i     nally ,
hec         or   i                      anc
      alls f a frm U.S.-Jap an alli e as a c        ounter to
     na’
C h i s exp ansi              enc es
                 onary tend i .
                             y
    In C h ap ter 4 , A natol B oly atko ofth e Institute ofF ar
                 is n            a i us
E as tern Stude i Rus s i ds c s es h ow i m i i    n     l tary
 oc ne                i                     ted
d tri andexerc s es th e PL A h as reac to th ei om i   nc ng
           m ni
B us h ad i s trati                         i ts
                        on. B oly atko p redc th at, as joi   nt
   l tary exerc s es arec uc
m ii            i                      ew             ted
                           ond tedb t een th eUni States


                                 8
        ts          an      e n
andi E as t A s i alli s i K orea andJap an, andas th e
Uni                          orw          th         s le ef
      ted States m ov es f ard w i a “m i s i d en s e
     e d”       na l       t y        uc ng           s
s h i l , C h i w i lreac b p rod i th ous and ofm i s i e , s ls
   rc t,                       ei v             h
ai raf andtanks . H e b l e es th at suc p rod ti w i l  uc on     l
               na’
s tres s C h i s m i i          nd      al as , ut
                       l tary -i us tri b e b th at s uc           h
              an e                y
s tres s es c b tolerated b th e C h i e ec  nes       onom y . H is
  onc us on s              na l               e
c l i i th at C h i w i l s eek to b m ore efe ti e at    fc v
 orc           c on       ef        n
f e p roje ti andd ens e i th e A s i               ii
                                             a-Pacfcregi andon
    l               ts orc s        nst    w       ut l
w i l s trength en i f e agai Tai an,b w i l not s eek
      e om
to b c e a w orldm ii                                     e
                         l tary p ow er,as w as th e Sov i t Uni on,
    th        ap b l t      ond t litary op erati
w i th e c a i i y to c uc m i                                   d
                                                        ons outs i e
E as t A s ia.
        e
     L i utenant C olonel M ark Stokes ofth e U.S. A i F orc     r      e
         ns      na’         ti
exp lai C h i s reac ons to th e B us h ad i s trati s    m ni      on’
          or ev          ng     alli c s l ef
p lans f d elop i a b s ti m i s i e d ense s y s tem to
         t ep
p rotec d loy ed      U.S. m ii          orc s          c ri nd
                               l tary f e ,A m eri an f e s and
     e        th                      .                     n
alli s ,and e U.S. h om eland A s Stokes notes i C h ap ter 5 ,
     na’
C h i s cam p ai agaign                            th raw
                              nst th e U.S. w i d al f          rom th e
19 7 2 A B M Treaty d          ates to w ell bef       ore th e B us h
    m ni         on           fc
ad i s trati took of i e. B ut as a candd                      or fc ,
                                                       i ate f ofi e
             h s c ty          v s            e t l ar
B us h and i s e uri ad i ers m ad i c e th at th eUni               ted
                d                       ef
States w oul p urs ue th es e d enses . Stokes s ees C h i s        na’
  ev                   m    erni ati          ts
d elop m ent and od z on ofi ow n strategi m i s i             c s le
 orc s
f e as “an i         ntegral p art of PRC c             i            e
                                                   oercv e s trategi s .”
              i us ng         na’                       s le
W h eth er ds c s i C h i s th eater-lev elm i s i p rogram s ,
                    s les
s h ort-range m i s i , or i     nterc   onti             s les
                                              nental m i s i , Stokes
  ei v                            c          s l ef
b l e es th at any A m eri an m i s i e d en s es , h ow ev er
       es                ev        y
m od t, are p erc i ed b B e ji as h av i  i ng             ng “s erious
 m i ati          or        a ii y
i p l c ons f th ev i b l t ofi nuc e d   ts     l ar eterrent andf   or
 ts           i nv
i exp andng i entory ofc enti        onv      onal s h ort andm edumi
          alli c s l s
range b s ti m i s i e .”
       i ng’        s c     s le orc s            i c
    B e ji s balli ti m i s i f e are a p ol ti al and
   l tary “trum p card i
m ii                           ed                     or
                      ” ntend to s tem any m ov es f m ore
autonom y andi   nternati         c    ti rom Tai an,and
                           onal re ogni on f       w
       i t
als o l m i th e f    om        ti
                  reed of ac on of th e Uni    ted States to
res p ondto c onti      i          y n       w
                  ngenc es not onl i th e Tai an Strai b t, ut
 n
i th e A s i     ii       on.
            a-Pacfcregi M oreov er,Stokes notes ,B e ji   i ng
f             f ab e alli c s l ef                   ep
 ears th at,i v i l b s ti m i s i e d enses are d loy ed     ,

                                   9
      om
th e c m andand c               h tec     or
                     ontrol arc i ture f th es e s y s tem s
 oul        nto     e-f to”     anc f
c dturn i a “d ac alli ei Jap an,South K orea,
th e Uni                      w
         ted States , and Tai an i                 r   s l
                                     ntegrate th ei m i s i e
  ef
d ense p rogram s .
                    i ts           w       l op       om i
     Stokes p redc th at Tai an w i lad t a c b nati of         on
        v    ef      v
p as s i e d ensi e m eas ures to c p l com i ate PRC targeti     ng,
     l       nes
w h i eC h i em ii                          l ev       e
                       l tary p lanners w i ld elop b tter p lans to
abs orb and rec ti                orc s     ter
                     ons tute f e af a PRC frs t s tri   i        ke.
          c s     th raw
A m eri a’ w i d al f          rom th e A B M Treaty on June 13     ,
  002           s      na’ i                   ef
2 , h and C h i s dp lom ats a d eat of m onum ental
            ons          a              c
p rop orti . Rus s i not only ac ep tedth e endofth e A B M
             ut                            uts n
Treaty ,b als o agreedto m ajor c i th e num b rs ofi       e      ts
   f      v                               i ti
ofensi e w eap ons . Th us th e p redc ons ofnot only C h i s    na’
arm s c             om        ty ut
          ontrol c m uni b ofth e s up p orters ofC h i s        na’
      ti n               ted          ng              eed f
p os i on i th e Uni States ri h ollow . Ind ,i th ere i            s
      s l ui d n               ti               of
a m i s i eb l up i reac on to th eend th eA B M Treaty ,i          t
   l om
w i lc ef               na,        ng
              rom C h i s eeki to m ai            n
                                             ntai w h at Stokes calls
a “trum p c .”ard
                           c     V on,         ons
     In C h ap ter 6 , E ri M c ad a c ultant on A s i              an
   c ty
s e uri and f                          en            h
                   orm er U.S. D ef s e A ttac e i B e ji  n     i ng,
         ns n           etai            ti         na
exp lai i great d l th e p os i ons C h i h as taken i                n
      ti                        d al am           gn
reac on to th e B us h p res i enti c p ai s tatem ents on
    s l ef                             ti
m i s i e d ens e and to th e ac ons taken b th e B us h y
   m ni         on n ts i                       n fc
ad i s trati i i frs t 6 m onth s i ofi e to ad res s            d
     na’ onc rns ov er U.S. b s ti m i s i d ens e p lans.
Ch i s c e                         alli c s le ef
    V on
M c ad outli                  f      y
                  nes th e eforts b th e PRC arm s c       ontrol and
  i          c om        ty         i t
dp lom ati c m uni to s o l m i any A m eri an d ense    c      ef
   f                                         ti al f c
eforts th at th ey w ouldh av e no p rac c efe t on C h i s       na’
      l ar orc .      na’
nuc e f e C h i s negoti                    c ordng
                                   ators , a c i to M c ad     V on,
 c       not                      c        s l ef
“ ould tolerate” an A m eri an m i s i ed ensef eof2 0     orc      5
i        e        s ls       ut     gh
 nterc p tor m i s i e , b “m i t be able to tolerate 10
i                  ev                   ef
 ntercep tors d oted to th e d en s e of th e A m eri an           c
             .”    c i
h om eland A c ordng to M c ad                     na’
                                    V on, C h i s n egoti        ators
          th         ac
argued at onef tor f i Ji                              i
                            orc ng ang to takeafrm p os i on i  ti s
       l c ni n
“p ubi op i on i C h i             V on
                          na.” M c ad op i      nes th at th e Uni ted
                 i               em                    t
States m us t fndw ay s to d onstrate th at i “w i not b     ll       e
             c      m
h egem oni ” and us t c     onti         i          th
                                nueadaloguew i C h i on th e na


                                 10
                                   alli c s l ef
p urp os e and extent of any U.S. b s ti m i s i e d ense
s y s tem .
          a,
     A s i too, h as reac                   c      alli c
                             ted to A m eri an b s ti m i s i e   s l
  ef                   xp n                     m
d en s e p lan s , e lai s D r. Taeh o K i , Seni C h i     or      na
A n aly s t at th e K orean Insti       or
                                  tute f D ef   ense A naly s es . In
                  m
C h ap ter 7,K i ac             ges
                        know led th e p rof          h
                                             oundc anges i th e  n
            c
s trategi env i                 uc d y
                  ronm ent p rod e b th eSep tem b r 11,2e         001
          s         ks
terrori t attac on th e Uni                            m
                                    ted States . K i exam i        nes
    s l ef                                om             v
m i s i e d ens es as p art ofa m ore c p reh ensi e efort to  f
transf                  y
         orm not onl th e U.S. m ii             ut
                                      l tary , b als o A m eri an  c
                                         m ni        on’
s trategy . H enotes th at th eB us h ad i s trati s ap p roac       h
      c ty                       i al ep
to s e uri rep res ents a radc d arture f          rom th at ofth e
   i           m ni       on. m        i ts
C l nton ad i s trati K i p redc an ap p roac th at h as   h
         e n       iy         s l ef          ep
nuanc s i pol c andm i s i e d ense d loy m ents i E as t      n
     a,       ng nto c               i c          ti ti s n
A s i taki i ac ount th ep ol ti al s ensi v i e i Jap an,
                                 ng e
w h ere s om e are w ary ofgoi b y ondth e res earc s tage   h        ,
       n                              oc s
andi K orea,w h ere th ep opular f us i on North K orea and
 ts onv
i c enti               orc s              na’
                onal f e , not on C h i s or North K orea’           s
  alli c s les
b s ti m i s i .
     C olonel Sus an Pus ka, c      urrently U.S. A rm y A ttac é ath
              c           as     n i ng,                  i ng’ f
th eA m eri an E m b s y i B e ji as s es s es B e ji s eforts
     orc           ci      n
at f e p roje t on i C h ap ter 8. Sh e as s erts th at C h i i     na s
      eli       ts
m od ng i ow n m ii                        erni ati
                              l tary m od z on and eforts to    f
  ev            v    e ap b l t e as
d elop ad anc dc a i i i s b edon th e c ab l t e of      ap ii i s
th e U.S. m i                nc
                litary . To i reas em ii                blte         na s
                                          l tary cap a i i i s ,C h i i
 oc ng                                c on n        p
f us i m oreon p ow er p roje ti i peri h eral areas b i              y ts
ow n m i                 l h        ng      ni             s
           litary ,w h ie c angi trai ng m eth od to i reas e   nc
   fc v                       oc                  e
efe ti enes s . Pus ka d um ents new s c nari f C h i e  os or        nes
m ii              ni           oc             ng            i ng
    l tary trai ng th at f us on m eeti w h at B e ji s ees as
 ts        n                  orc s
i m ai th reat— th e f e ofth e Uni              tedStates . Th e PL A
als o s eem s to b c         i         ts             v
                    e onsc ous ofi ow n relati ew eaknes s es i           n
  om        s              orc s          ore t s oc ng
c p ari on to U.S. f e . Th eref i i f us i on w h at i                   t
         s             n              ii
s ees i th e m ai v ulnerab l ty of th e Uni             ted States , a
  ep         en
d en d ce on th e electrom agn etic s p ectru m f                       or
  om          c on
c m uni ati andth e exc ange ofi    h           ntelli      e
                                                       genc andth reat
d ata.



                                   11
       i ng s m       ng                   n            m
    B e ji i i p rov i m anagem enti th e PL A ,i p rov i      ng
          ty    ts
th equali ofi ow n m ii                        y e        uc ng
                          l tary p ers onnelb b tter ed ati
               rui ng               fed
th em andrec ti m ore quali i p ers onnel. Th e PL A i            s
       nc
als o i reas i ngly able to c        i                    fc v
                                 oordnate and us e efe ti ely
res erv e an d m ilitia f    orces . Th e C en tral M ilitary
         s on, th e C h i e C om m uni t Party ’ leadng
C om m i s i             nes                 s         s       i
   l tary b y ,i als o try i to red ec
m ii       od s             ng                     on
                                      uc orrup ti and as te. w
         oncud              ay     i ng
Pus ka c l es th at tod B e ji h as a “rough b read ”    ut     y
 orc         c on ap b l t             l m                 m
f e p roje ti c a i i y th at w i l i p rov e ov er ti e and
c                  s         os
 reate greater ri ks andc ts to any c       ountry th at s eeks to
 h              na    ts       p
c allenge C h i on i p eri h ery .
       In C h ap ter 9 ,M r. K enneth A llen,an exp ert on C h i e     nes
    c ty                          or
s e uri at th e C enter f N av al A naly s es , e            xam i nes th e
  h           n              r         e PL
c anges i th e PL A A i F orc ( A A F )as i m od z and t       erni es
      orm     ts     s c               n
ref s i logi ti s y s tem s i ord to fgh t h i -tec nol
                                            er     i       gh      h     ogy
                                              e
w ars . In th e 19 9 0s th e PL A A F b gan transf i i elf  orm ng ts
f            orc l ant up on s i e b
 rom a f e re i                                    h ep
                                       ngl ranc d loy m ent to one
               lz
able to utii em ulti l b                h    n nt
                          p e ranc es i joi s erv i ec p aic am         gns,
 ndc ng               f n        oc
i i ati a s h i t i th ef us ofth e PL A A F f                       m
                                                         rom a p ri ari   ly
        ti         ef          e
p os i onal, d ense ori ntedop erati             on, to a m ore m ob le, i
                   l,                v    orc ,
m aneuv erab e p rev entati e f e able to ad res s l al        d        oc
  onc rn                 ke        c
c e s and s tri qui kly . A llen analy z th i s h i t       es       s     f
th rough exam i           on
                      nati of th e PL A A F op erati         onal th eory ,
       s c
logi ti s s truc              th              th
                    tureand eory ,and ety p es oftrai ng us ed   ni
        m                      h
to i p lem ent th es e c anges . A llen th en ad res s es th ed
       c fc h               ted y                    n
s p e i i c anges enac b th e PL A A F i p rep arati f a            on or
m ii           onf        on th                ted
     l tary c rontati w i th e Uni States . Ov er th elas t
                   na’                            i
5 0 y ears ,C h i s PL A A F h as engaged n only th reeexternal
  am        gns n                  w             t 19
c p ai , i K orea, Tai an Strai ( 5 8) andV i tnam .                 e
     v        c nt litary h i tory ,th e PL A A F h as reali edth e
G i en re e m i                  s                                  z
           or
needf a transregi                       ke orc
                           onal s tri f e andh as i ti        ni atedth e
        ni       cs
trai ng ne e s ary to c                          l ts             l ar
                             reate one. W h i ei i not y etc e h ow
    fc v                                    e uri
efe ti e th e PL A A F w ould b d ng a real c l c                   onfi t,
          c         f ai            cp
p arti ularly i f c ng anti i ated U.S. s trategi s s uc as     e      h
 n
i teri ai ior              es          ti
                  rf eld d truc on, th e PL A A F h as m ad                e
    gni i ant s tri es i i p rov i p i p rofcenc , s orti
s i fc                d n m               ng lot          ii y             e
gen erati                                              s
               on an d s u s tain ability , logi tical s up p ort,
  om
c m uni ati    c ons, and i     ntelli       e                    onc ud
                                        genc . Th us , A llen c l es


                                   12
           le
th at,w h i th e PL A A F m ay not c          e l       i
                                    urrently b ab e to felda
     d      ke orc
rap i s tri f e ofany th reat to th e Uni                 t s
                                             tedStates , i i
      ng efni                n   s i ti
m aki d i te p rogres s i th i drec on.
           h                        fc v        ap
     E ac ofth e auth ors h as efe ti ely c turedth e m ai            n
         s n
trend i regi                c ty n                a.
                   onal s e uri i E as t A s i Th e terrori t        s
         ks
attac on th e Uni                                   s
                        tedStates , andth e sub equent w ar on
          s       y nc                 c
terrori m , onl i reas ed A m eri an res olv e to d l a        ep oy
  alli c       s l ef
b s ti m i s i e d en s e. Th ey als o b        rough t ab    out th e
  ep
d loy m en t of A m eri an f c                        n s
                                   orces on C h i a’ w es tern
       p                 ng
p eri h ery , s om eth i th at w as not f                n
                                             ores een i th e d s   ay
  e ore             k            ted
b f th e attac on th e Uni States . Th e trend outli       s       ned
 n
i th i b                ore
         s ook,th eref ,h av ep erh ap s p lay edth em s elv es out
                om           ti
ov er a m orec p res s ed m ef     ram e. B ut th eas s es s m ents b y
     h                d                d
eac auth or h ol up , and p rov i e s om e f          ram ew ork f   or
       ers      i
und tan dng h ow B eiji                           t
                                 ng m ay reac to th e frm er     i
       ti             y         ted
p os i ons taken b th e Uni States .

E N D NOTE S - C H A PTER 1
                                  ri               es ”
     1. G eorge W . B us h , “A Pe odofC onsequenc , C h arles ton: Th e
       el,          e 3
C itad Sep tem b r 2 , 19 9 9 . h t p :/ / ctad l d p ao/ ad re s / p r e
                                     t      i e.e u/        d s          s_
b .h t l
 ush     m .

       .                       c            en         b
     2 Th e rem arks , w h i h h av e b e attri uted to G eneral Xi                ong
             ,           e n          v       onv rs on
G uangkai w ere m ad i a pri ate c e ati w i a f er U.S.         th       orm
gov e              fcal,              or
      rnm ent of i i A m bas s ad C h as . W . F reem an, ands h ouldnot
c                i            fcal
 arry th e w e gh t ofan of i i C h i    nese s tatem ent. M oreov er,ac ordngc i
                             s              ouc
to Freem an, th ese w ord w ere not c h edas a th reat ands h oul b               d e
                n
ev aluated i th e c                                ed f
                        ontext of an extend of-th e-rec                     i us on
                                                                     ord dsc s i
  e            m                     nes
b tw een h i s elf and th e C h i e m i        litary ofi i Se A m b s ad
                                                        fcal.         e       as     or
                           d
C h as . F reem an, “D i C h i     na Th reaten to B om b L os A ngeles ?”
                    e,
Proli e on B ri f V ol. 4 ,M arc 2 ,2
      f rati                                              lab e
                                      h 2 001,av ai l at w w w .c i .org/     ep
 ie                                                                 t ;
              c ons/ p rol f rationb e 4 04 .as p ?f =p ub y p e and A llen
fl s/ p ubli ati           ie           ri f           rom
           ti          n s
S. W h i ng, “C h i a’ U s e of F orce, 19 5 0-19 9 6 , an d Tai an,            w     ”
    e
Int rnati   onal Se uri y ,V ol. 2 ,Fall 2
                    c t           6                      9
                                            001,p p . 12 -13 In Sc
                                                               0.        obell’ v i w ,
                                                                               s e
Xi       s om                   e                  dng m
   ong’ c m ents s h ouldb seen as p rov i i i p ortant i s i ts i       n gh      nto
          nd
th e m i set of C h i   nese m i i         l te rc p ons of U.S. strategi
                                  l tary ei p e e ti                                  c
    ori e                s      e
p ri ti s andth e exi tenc ofan “as y m m etry ofm oti ati        v on” b t e new e
   i ng
B e ji andW as h i                  i
                      ngton on Ta w an. SeeA nd      rew Sc   obell,C h i s Useof
                                                                           na’
M ii ary F orc : B e ondt eG re W all andth eL ong M arc ,N ew York:
    lt            e y        h       at                                h
         ri ge      v     ty
C am b d Uni ers i Pres s , 2 , f        003 orth c i               h
                                                       om ng, c ap ter 8. Z u       h
Ch e                     or olone i th e PL A s erv i at C h i s N ati
     ngh u,th en a s eni c          ln                     ng          na’        onal


                                         13
    ens       v    ty
D ef e Uni ers i and                                   th        ng
                          now am ajor general,rep eated ew arni th at
        c     ace                 l ar
A m eri ans f th e th reat ofnuc e attac f            na n
                                           k rom C h i i th e ev ent of a
            y          ted                 k        w
res p onse b th e Uni States to an attac on Tai an. See Ji f  e angjun
          b
B ao, Fe ruary 2 2                              el,
                   8, 000 and L arry M . W ortz “Sh ouldth e Uni     ted
                            y    na’       ng     e n
States F eel Th reatenedb C h i s G row i Rol i th e I     nternati onal
   l tary -Pol ti a A rena?, Th e Re i dOf i e D e e b r 2
M ii          i cl          ”       t re   fc r, c m e 000,p . 3 .    5

      .                        sti tly    c           onalis m , Si i
    3 G eorgeW . B us h ,“A D i nc A m eri an Internati         ” m
    ly            m e
V al e ,C A ,Nov e b r 19 ,19 9 9 .

   4 . h ttp :/ / w w w .p bs .org/ ne s h our/ b / e
                                      w          b lection/ 2    e ates /
                                                             000d b
 nd b 1.h
2 e ate tm l.

   5 . C h i s eE xe i e Strait 9 6 1: 8-2 M arc 19 9 6 ,W as h i
            ne      rc s                  5     h                ngton,D C :
  fc                     nc ,
Of i e ofNav al Intellige e M ay 19 9 6 .

                 etai e         om     ns v           s    i    s
     6 . F or a d l dandc p reh e i e analy si of C l nton’ C h i     na
     c      e     d
p oli y ,s e D av i M . L am p ton,Sam e B e ,D i f re D re s, B erkeley
                                            d f e nt       am
                        v rs ty       f     a
andL os A n geles : Uni e i ofC aliorni Pres s ,2     001.

                    e             Tw     ry      e ,
     7. Joh n K eef ,“A Tale of‘ o V e Sorri s ’” F ar Eas t rn E c
                                                               e      onom i c
                h 1, 002
Re i w ,M arc 2 2 ,p p . 3 3 Si fc
    v e                                                    na       onc ud
                                   0-3 . gni i antly ,C h i als o c l ed
        ts       l ng          ncd
th at i h andi of th e i i ent w as v i        rtually exem p lary . C h inese
             n s              i n
an aly s ts i s i t th at B e ji g h an d led th e s i     on n
                                                      tuati i a m ature,
                          em                  fc v      s
m easuredw ay and d onstrated th e efe ti ene s ofC h i s “ ri s na’ c si
             nt ii y         e or                    i us on n
m anagem e abl t .” Se , f exam p le, th e ds c s i i “Th i            nkers ’
              d r           on
F orum : M i ai C ollis i and th e Future of Si                      l ons,
                                                         no-U.S. Re ati      ”
  h
Z ongguo Pi             H
               nglun ( ong K ong) June 1, 2                        n
                                                 001, translatedi F ore gn i
B road as t Inf ati Se i e h i June2 2
        c       orm     on rv c -C na,             1, 001.

                      s nc           c
     8. B ush , “A D i ti tly A m eri an Internati     s ”          e
                                                  onali m , Nov em b r 19 ,
19 9 9 .

                                                 tad
    9 . G eorge W . B u s h , “B us h at th e C i el,” C h arles ton, SC ,
    em e
D ec b r 11,2   001. w w w .c sne s .c .
                              b w      om

                      de
    10. E v an S. M e i ros, Rap p orteur, US-C h i Arm s C ontrol and
                                                   na
N onp rolif rati C oop e
           e on                                                      y
                           ration: Progre s and Pros p e t , M ontere :
                                          s             cs
M onterey In s titute ofInternati           is    tob r 000,p . 19 .
                                 onal Stude ,Oc e 2

    11. I i .,p . 2
         bd        0.

      .        h
   12 L iD aoz ong,“A n I            on             s          y
                         nterp retati ofC h allenge Im p os edb U.S.
Uni      i
   lateral s m on Internati           l                          m ,
                           onal M ultiateral A rm s C ontrol Regi e”
                 c m e 001,p . 19 .
Pe c ,No. 6 1,D e e b r 2
  ae




                                    14
        .   e or           e      re       ob l , C      h ng
     13 Se , f exam p l , A n d w Sc e l “ rouc i K orea, H i d              d en
Ch i               m ni        on     iy
     na: B us h A d i s trati Pol c Tow ardPy ongy ang andB e ji ”          i ng,
A s i n Surv e ,V ol. XL I , No. 2 M arc /A p ri 2 ,p p . 3 4 -3 5 . Sc e l
     a         y          I       ,       h      l 002          4     4      ob l
c         s                                   na              h
 ontend th at B us h ap p ears to s ee C h i not s o m uc as a strategi         c
 om            ut           th
c p etitor b rath er w i unc rtai  e nty ab                       t s    ri nd
                                                out w h eth er i i a f e or
 oe.             d nt’     nki
f Th e Pres i e s th i ng ab                   na gh
                                      out C h i m i t be called“strategi        c
      i       e bd             6 -3         s       i       e          i
am bv alenc .” I i ., p p . 3 3 6 4 . Th i am b v alenc w as l kely only
    nf e as                                       s
rei orc d th eresult ofth ew ar on terrori m andth e tw o f                   ac
                                                                       ace-to-f e
m eeti       n
       ngs i late 2   001 and e   arly 2         th   a      n
                                         002 w i Ji ng i Sh angh ai and
    i ng, s c v
B e ji re p e ti ely .

                   nes       con    out            e om i        C nes
      14 . On C h i es us p i i s ab th eB elgrad b b ng and h i e
suspi i c ons about U.S. i       on
                          ntenti s generally ,s ee A nd      ob l ,
                                                       rew Sc e l C h ina
                            ,     i          ks
and Strat gi Culture C arl s le B arrac , PA : Strategi Studes
              e c                                              c      i
                     002
In s titute,M ay 2 ,p p . 18-19 .

                               s ntrod t on w ould ad th at, l ke th e
     15 . Th e auth ors of th i i     uci                d      i
Bush -Ji             n                   i ng, th ere w as not m uc of
          ang talks i Sh angh ai and B e ji                         h
    s      e      a
sub tanc th at c m e out ofth e H u Ji        s t
                                      ntao v i i to th e UnitedStates at
      nv tati       c       d           n         002
th ei i on ofV i ePres i ent C h eney i May 2 . On th eB u s h -Ji   ang
             or              ob l , C   h ng        a    d en
talks , s ee,f exam p le,Sc e l “ rouc i K ore , H i d C h i ” p.na,
 5
39.




                                      15
16
                                        S
PA R T I: PE RSPE C TIV E S ON C H IN A ’
 SE C URITY A N D M IL ITA RY POW E R




                   17
                       C H A PTE R 2



          TH E V IE W FROM B E IJING :
     U.S.-C H IN A SE C URITY RE L A TIONS
   FROM K OSOV O TO SE PTE M B E R 11,2   001

                       d
                 D av i M . F inkels tein



      uc i
Introd t on.

           tob r
    On Oc e 19 ,2                 d
                       001,Pres i ents G eorge W . B us h ofth e
     ted
Uni States andJi              em n                 s
                        ang Z i ofth e Peop le’ Repub i of lc
     na PRC ) h ad th e r frs t f e
Ch i (                    i i               ac        ng
                                   ac -to-f e m eeti on th e
 ri
f nges of th e A s i         ii
                       a-Pac f c E c         c        i A
                                     onom i C ounc l ( PE C )
       ng n                 ter
m eeti i Sh angh ai af alm os t a y ear of i reas i  nc     ngly
s trai      i
      nedblateral relati                       gi        h uled
                           ons. W h at w as ori nally s c ed
     e ull-b ow n sum m i m eeti to i l eav i i b B us h
to b a f      l            t       ng, nc ud         s t y
       i ng, w as c
to B e ji                 ld            -d        ks ue
                    urtai e to a h alf ay oftal d to th e
unf ores een and        c       s        ks           ted
                  tragi terrori t attac on th eUni States
on Sep tem b r 11.1
              e
              c
   B y all ac ounts , th e m eeti ngs w ent w ell enough . Th e
  fc al      nes             h    teri e         i us on
ofi i C h i e p res s c arac z d th e ds c s i s as
 c        ti          rui ul” and h eld i a “f e ly and
“ ons truc v e and f tf                     n      ri nd
                       2
 andd                           i   nt        onf       e
c i atm os p h ere.” In th e r joi p res s c erenc , B us h
     i
readly agreedw i Ji                     i us ons w ere us ef
                    th ang th at th e ds c s i                ul
andth at th e tw o m en h ad v ery good eeti
                              “a          m    ng.”3 B oth m en
           m                ons
agreedto i p rov e relati . Ji    ang c       or c
                                        alledf “ onstruc v eti
      oop      v        ons ”     i               d th
andc erati erelati , as ddB us h ,w h o ad ed ew ord
“candd to th e c truc 4
       i”         ons      t.
                 ei       ls                    i       th
    Th e usual “d l v erab e ” th at are as s oc atedw i and
of         cp
  ten anti i atedas a res ult ofth es e ty p es ofU.S.-C h ina
        ts           es          v
sum m i w ere m od t. B ut gi en m any m onth s of tense
relati                                 e
      ons andth e ev ents ofSep tem b r 11,B us h andJi    ang


                              19
           l        c     i                je ti
w ere ab e to ac om p l s h tw o key ob c v es : es tabi h als
  as ne i
b eli dalogue f                   c                      m
                        rom w h i h to attem p t to i p rov e
       ons s c ally s e uri relati
relati ,e p e i           c ty                  p l cy
                                      ons,and ubi l p res ent
       ted ront” on th ei s ue ofth e w ar on terrori m . In th e
a “uni f                   s                           s
f        ,                      s
 uture th es e tw o th read m ay b c e ince om                n
                                                       reas i gly
interw ov en as op erati       n gh     s
                         ons i A f ani tan c    onti nue. Ind ,eed
 or oth c
f b                 e
             ountri s , th e w ar agai             s       ll
                                      nst terrori m w i only
        f         m         e       i              na
m agni y th e i p ortanc of p lac ng U.S.-C h i relati         ons,
      c ally s e uri relati
es p e i        c ty         ons,on an ev en keel.
                 na,               ew
     F or C h i th e next f y ears w i w i       ll tnes s a s i fc gni i ant
       ers p
lead h i s uc es s i    c                    c s on
                               on— th e ac e s i to p ow er of th e
“F ourth G enerati                     ers n 002
                          on” oflead i 2 . Th es e are th e m en
           l                          th        nc       ngl i fc
w h o w i lh av e to grap p le w i th ei reas i y df i ult tas k
            ng orw            c
ofp us h i f arde onom i ands truc     c                        orm
                                                     tural ref s ,w h i      le
           ng             i             i i a i oc ons attend to
m anagi th e s oc al andp ol t c l ds l ati                            ant
               orm                 l                     orw
th os e ref s . Th ey w i l h av e to m ov e f ard w i th e           th
  ev                        na’
d elop m ent ofC h i s w es tern regi tac th ei   on, kle            nternal
       lm                ng            nes
p rob e s p lagui th e C h i e C om m uni t Party ( C P)   s           C      ,
                             s               i
and m anage th e i s ues as s oc ated w i W orld Trad    th                   e
          z on W
Organi ati ( TO)e                                s l e ng
                                ntry . A llofth i w ilb goi on w h i         le
      na l e nc
C h i w i l b i reas i                      e        er
                                 ngly p lac dund th e i        nternati  onal
     c     op n
m i ros c e i th e lead to th e 2-up                   y      c
                                               008 Ol m p i s . M oreov er,
           w         s      s e om ng
th e Tai an i s ue i b c i m ore c p lex f C h i e   om          or      nes
       ers            i i a ev
lead as p ol t c l d elop m ents andd es ti p ol t c i om       c ii s n
     p i e om
Tai e b c e m ore c p l c                    .
                                om i ated A ndnow th at th e Uni          ted
States i ac  s                       c ng
                    tually p ros e uti m ii      l tary op erati   ons i an
c                th       c        na
  ountry w i w h i h C h i s h ares a landb er— alw ay s aord
   gh         er       nes
h i ord C h i e s e uri c e                               i ng
                                  c ty onc rn— B e ji now h as a
s eri                  n         e ng ut
      ous s take i not b i c out by W as h i                  ngton. C h i  na
   m                    f a onf
s i p ly cannot aford c rontati                             ons p th
                                               onal relati h i w i th e
      ted                    s      nt n m
Uni States at th i p oi i ti e i i can b av oi edft          e       d .
          les             onf
   N eed s to s ay , a c rontati    onal relati        p
                                                 onsh i w i  th
Ch i        ll
    na w i not s erv e U.S. i                            c ally
                               nteres ts eith er. E s p e i
 e aus             am    gn n    gh    s
b c e of th e c p ai i A f ani tan and th e glob             al
nature ofW as h i       s                s        l i ateral
                  ngton’ w ar on terrori m , s tab e b l
relati                     ted                 na
      ons betw een th e Uni States andC h i are a m us t.
      s               s       th      i
Th e i s ue ofterrori m notw i s tandng, s trai          c ty
                                                 neds e uri
relati         th    na              s ft          e
      ons w i C h i s erv es no end i i can b av oi ed    d .

                                     20
                                      on
In creas ed U.S.-C h in a ten s i s w ill only u n n erv e
W as h i       s      e        ri nd n
        ngton’ alli s andf e s i th e A s i            ii
                                                 a-Pacfcregi   on.
            l
A n uns tab erelati          p oul h
                       onsh i c d av e a d          ous m
                                             eleteri i p ac ont
        us nes
U.S. b i s and trad i                            m        c
                              e nteres ts at a ti e of e onom i   c
     e nty
unc rtai . Inc      reas edtensi        oul om i ate key U.S.
                                  ons c dc p l c
   c ty onc rns i E as t A s i suc as th e m ai
s e uri c e             n          a,    h                     e
                                                      ntenanc of
      ii y
s tab l t on th e K orean Peni                   c ally ac s th e
                                 nsula andes p e i        ros
    w            t.                   ng i
Tai an Strai Ov erall,w ors eni b lateral relati         ons w ith
    na ouldb c e an unendng f i p ol c ds trac on
Ch i c            e om              i ore gn       iy i       ti
                  te                  s    oc ts ore gn
to a B us h W h i H ous e th at need to f us i f i p ol c      iy
        e                     nst
energi s on th e w ar agai terrori ts .  s
                      m , ue          ng          i
    A t th e s am e ti e d to a grow i m utual ds trus t th at
                w th n         c ty        ls
h as ev olv ed i i th etw o s e uri es tabi h m ents ov er th e
       ew            c ty if       e e
p as t f y ears ,s e uri dferenc s b tw een th etw o nati ons
   ll                   h       ng       n      c
w i be th e m os t c allengi area i w h i h to rep ai         r
relati                       orw
        ons andm ov e th em f ard   .
    U.S. c eonc rns v i          s     na
                          s-à-v i C h i are w ell know n. F or th e
                            e             c ty ront h av e rev ol ed
m os t p art,U.S. w orri s on th e s e uri f                         v
around th e f     ollow i  ng f              s            rs
                                 our key i s ues . F i t, grow i       ng
 onc rns th at B e ji i p rep aredto us e f e t res olv e th e
c e                  i ng s                        orc o
    w      s                                     ” as on alc us
Tai an i s ue“s ooner rath er th an later, b ed a c ul
        ew n                         l m
th at f i th e W es t can c ai to und tand w i any ers           th
d egree of c  ertai .5 Se ond U.S. c e about C h i e
                    nty         c ,            onc rn               nes
     i e on e              or.      rd v
p rol f rati b h av i Th i , gi en th e lac of d ense     k       ef
                y n        na,      e nti s n
tran s p arenc i C h i unc rtai e i th e Uni                  tedStates
as to th ei  ntenti         e nd na’
                    ons b h i C h i s m i                     erni ati
                                                litary m od z on
p rogram s — conv en ti       onal an d n u clear. A n d f       ourth ,
ques ti       n            ted
        ons i th e Uni States as to w h eth er C h i w oul     na       d
 i
l ke to s ee th e U.S. m ii                                    ii,
                             l tary p us h edout ofth e Pacfc or at
leas t p u lled b k. 6 A ll of th es e is s ues are cri c
                   ac                                            ti ally
 m
i p ortant to th e regi              c ty nteres ts ofth e Uni
                            onal s e uri i                            ted
                    e ale
States . On a 4 -ti r s c ofnati       onal i                1)      v
                                               nteres ts — ( s urv i al,
 2 tal 3                4         p                      n
( )v i ,( )m ajor,( )p eri h eral— th ey ratei th ev i and       tal
m ajor c          e         s s       nsi fc
          ategori s . Th i i not i gni i ant.
   Li     s    n   i ng, th e “U.S. f tor” i th e C h i e
     kew i e, i B e ji                ac       n        nes
nati        c ty alc
    onal s e uri c ulus ap p ears to h av e grow n ev en
               n                               ew
greater th an i th e p as t. Ov er th e p as t f y ears , th e


                                  21
      ev      c                  nes
p erc i ed“ h allenges ” to C h i e nati   onal s ov ereignty and
   c ty nteres ts p os ed b th e s e uri p ol c e of th e
s e uri i                      y         c ty         iis
Uni                          m
     tedStates — real or i agi               i
                                  nedon th e r p art— are b i e ng
   e        y               e       nes     c ty
v i w edb a goodnum b r ofC h i e s e uri analy s ts w i        th
 nc       ng
i reas i alarm . W h ereas ,one c                 ,
                                      ouldargue U.S. s e uric ty
  onc rns ab
c e                      na
                out C h i range backw ard f    s rom “v i  tal” to
          ”             nes              h
“m ajor, m any C h i e s ee U.S. c allenges as rangi            ng
up w ard fs rom “m ajor” to “v i           ,n          as
                                 tal” and i som e c es , e en v
        v         s        s                  s       f
“s urv i al.” Th i trendi extrem ely w orri om e i true.
        c                   c                         y
     B e aus em os t A m eri an analy s ts arealread w ellaw are
              nes      c ty      iis             v
of th e C h i e s e uri p ol c e th at gi e p aus e i th e   n
Uni  tedStates , th e as s i            v        s       ent y
                            gnm ent gi en th i s tud b th e
  on eren ce organ i ers w as to i en ti y th e C h i es e
c f                      z                d      f            n
  onc rns— w h i h are not alw ay s s elf i ent. Th e auth or of
c e               c                        -ev d
    s h                ore ll      e               ng
th i c ap ter,th eref ,w i rev i w th e grow i unc rtai ,  e nty
  onc rn, and angs t w i w h i h B e ji h as v i w ed th e
c e                         th     c        i ng          e
     ted                         oup                      l
Uni States ov er th ep as tc leofy ears . H ew i lattem p t
      e                           nes                 ll
to v i w th e w orldth rough C h i e ey es . H e w i attem p t to
  onv             nes
c ey th eC h i eanaly ti f     c ram ew ork v i        s
                                                s-à-v i th eUni ted
States — an analy ti f               nd f            l—
                       c ram e ofm i ,i y ou w i l as w ell as
     c fc i y onc rns.
s p e i i p ol c c e
             e          o     s         e or         ers
     Th eb s t w ay to d s o i to rev i w f read th es eri         ous
nati           c ty e ates th at h av e taken p lac i C h i i
      onal s e uri d b                                 en        na n
                e               n                         e n ri
th e v ery rec nt p as t th at,i m any w ay s ,h av e b e d v en
  y      nes
b C h i e angs t ab                   ted
                        out th e Uni States . Th e auth or w i l     l
                     e                 gni i ant
p res ent an ov erv i w ofth ev ery s i fc nati                 c ty
                                                       onals e uri
  e ate                  en       na n
d b th at took p lac i C h i i 19 9 9 i th e af n         term ath of
N A TO’ K os ov o i
         s           nterv enti 7 H e w i touc b e ly on th e
                                on.          ll    h ri f
       l 001 E P-3i i ent,and d s th e“A m eri a d b
A p ri 2             nc d           ad res                 c e ate”
                 ol i n i ng
th at w as unf dng i B e ji as ofth esum m er of2            001,jus t
     or              e
p ri to Sep tem b r 11. F i                              l      c
                                nally , th e auth or w i l s p e ulate
about th e c e               nes                 gh
                onc rns C h i e analy s ts m i t h av e as th ey
    e          c ty m i ati                        c
v i w th e s e uri i p l c ons ofth e A m eri an c p ai iam      gn n
    gh     s          ,
A f ani tan, and p res um ably , th e w ar agai       nst terrori ms
  e
b y ond  .
       av                   s n   er. s m
    A c eat at th eouts et i i ord It i i p ortant th at th e
     n
C h i es e W eltan s ch auung be f            ers
                                    ully u n d tood an d


                                 22
       ned      c ally as i c e
exp lai , es p e i         t onc rns th e United States .
            oi       oes    m
H ow ev er,d ng s o d not i p ly agreem ent.

                        h
19 9 9 : K os ov o and t e “G reat Peace
andD ev elop m ent D ebate.”

                             h                       all
    Ov e i w . F rom M arc 19 9 9 th rough th e late f of
         rv e
19 9 9 ,a nati        c ty e ate         en      na.
              onal s e uri d b took p lac i C h i It w as
            l
rem arkab e on tw o c   ounts .
                i      m     nc                  aop ng’ as c
     F or th e frs t ti e s i e 19 85 , D eng Xi i s b i
as s es s m ent of th e s tate of th e i nternati         c ty
                                                 onal s e uri
env i                         e       ev
       ronm ent— th at “p eac and d elop m ent” ( e i Yu
                                                     H p ng
                              s            m
F az an) w ere th e trend of th e ti es — w as s eri ly
      h                                                     ous
ques ti  onedandi               ruti z .
                    ntensely s c ni ed Ofkey s i fc e gni i anc ,
         fc y         na’ ore gn       iis
th e efi ac ofC h i s f i p ol c e andth e v ali i of     dty
     na’
C h i s nati          ef        iis             c ally sub c
               onal d ense p ol c e w ere es p e i         je ted
     erv d nternal d b
to f i i               e ate.
            c
    Th es e ond                    s                 l v
                 reas on th at th i w as a rem arkab ee ent w as
          s      i           i       m    nc                   nes
th at th i w as l kely th e frs t ti e s i e 19 4 9 th at C h i e
 ore gn      iy       ef          iy
f i p ol c andd ensep ol c w ereop enly ds c s edandi us
db          n
  e atedi th e gov ernm ent-c                    i
                                  ontrolledm eda as m atters of
    l c onc rn— to i l ec ti i m s ofgov ernm ent p ol c e
p ub i c e            nc ud ri c s                            iis
  y
b th e general p op ulac .e
        gi rom th eC h i ep res s ,d ng th eh e gh t ofth e
    Jud ng f               nes          uri         i
  e ate th                                   i          c
d b ( e sum m er of19 9 9 )alm os t ev ery l terate s e tor of
          na    i                                 n
th e C h i p ol ty w as ap p arently engaged i a m eda       i
free-f            ore gn p ol c and d en s e i s ues . Th i
       or-all on f i           iy        ef     s             s
 n      ed n
i clud i tellec                 d le
                     tuals , m i d clas s en trep ren eurs ,
s tud                     nes
      ents ,andev en C h i e gov ernm ent analy s ts w h o took
             p          i all-i sh ow s ,and round l s .8
to th eop -ed ages ,rado c      n           TV         tab e
        l c i ours e rev olv edab
    Pubi ds c                                                d
                                 out th e s tate ofth e w orl ,
     na’     e n t,                  nes     c ty
C h i s p lac i i th e s tate ofC h i e s e uri ,as w ell as
                          n    i ng
w h at th e gov ernm ent i B e ji s h ould d abo    out th es e
 s                         ted
i s ues andabout th e Uni States .
             m     aus     s e ate            s
   Th ep roxi ate c eofth i d b w as N A TO’ m i  litary
i          on n          n     h                s
 nterv enti i K os ov o i M arc 19 9 9 . NA TO’ errant


                               23
  om i                              n         en
b b ng ofth ePRC E m bas s y i B elgrad i M ay ad edf    d uel
to th e d                               n
            ebate. H ow ev er, beh i d th es e is s ues w ere
         m       ng     nes onc rns th at th e p os t-C oldW ar
long-s i m eri C h i e c e
 n           on         er
i tern ati al ord w as n ot u n f i                        n
                                            old ng as C h i es e
internati  onal relati            s       p    i ted
                       ons th eori ts h ad redc . Th ed b e ate,
      c ally th ei
es p e i          nternald b                  ri     y nc
                            e ate,w as als o d v en b i reas ing
     nes     onc rn
C h i e c e s about U.S. s trategi i           c ntenti ons and
    iis n                  d          er n         ,
p ol c e i th e p os t-C ol W ar ord i general andtow ard      s
     na n         c
C h i i parti ular.
          ts       und                     e ate
     A t i m os t f am entallev el,th ed b th at took p lac    e
 n                                    nes
i 19 9 9 w as about h ow th e C h i e gov ernm ent s h oul     d
                                  oldng nternati
as s es s th e s tate of th e unf i i                     c ty
                                                  onal s e uri
env i                           m            t
      ronm ent. B ut m os t i p ortant, i w as about th e
 m i ati                                  or     na’
i p l c ons of th at as s es s m ent f C h i s external
   c ty
s e uri .
                 h ng         on        m
   Th e ov erarc i ques ti w as s i p le: h ad C h i s na’
            c ty tuati f am entally d
external s e uri s i      on und           eteri       as
                                                orated a
                  s nterv enti i K os ov o? Th i ques ti
result of N A TO’ i            on n             s        on
b                            ac :       i         ob
 rough t oth ers to th e surf e W h at ddoth er gl al and
regi        c ty ev                      ?         d na
    onal s e uri d elop m ents p ortend A nds h oul C h i
  jus ts om         c     ori e ts ore gn     iis
ad t i d es ti p ri ti s , i f i p ol c e , or i          ts
 ef         iis
d ense p ol c e ?
                i
     On th e dp lom ati f          or
                         c ront, f exam p le, ques ti  ons w ere
    s                              nes
rai ed as to w h eth er th e C h i e gov ernm ent h ad b       een
      i             h          s      ulti    ng
p lac ng too m uc em p h as i on c v ati th e “d elop edev
        ”—
w orld es p e i  c ally th e Uni                 n
                                 ted States — i s tead of th e
   ev      ng       d”      c t
“d elop i w orl , w h i h i h adtradti                       z ?
                                          i onally em p h as i ed
Oth ers as ked w h eth er th e gov ernm ent w as b c i  e om ng
 nv
i olv edi i  n nternati         f rs                 ar
                        onal afai th at w ere too f rem ov ed
f          na’
 rom C h i s tradti                          y efnednati
                      i onal, m ore narrow l d i              onal
i                 fc      s       on                       e
 nteres ts . In efe t,th i ques ti as kedw h eth er th ec ntral
      ers p                 n
lead h i w as w alki g aw ay f          rom D eng Xi          ng’
                                                        aop i s
of            dc            n ore gn f rs        na
   t-quoted i tum th at i f i afai “C h i s h oul keep     d
             i
a low p rofle andnev er take th e lead    .”
             s
    On th e i s ue ofnati      ef         erni ati
                         onal d ense m od z on, s om e
    c onc rns                     ”
v oi edc e th at th e“U.S.-led K os ov o i           on
                                           nterv enti w as
   d e              na ouldno l
ev i enc th at C h i c                  f
                                onger afordto c  ontinue to

                               24
sub          ef           erni ati c    c ev
    jugate d ensem od z on to e onom i d elop m ent.
    eed                        t      m          e qual
Ind , s om e arguedth at i w as now ti e to p lac e
           s
em p h as i on th e tw o.
                          t
    A s w e s h all s ee,i w as not jus t th e K os ov o interv ention
            e     s       s              s          m
th at m ad th i an i s ue. Oth er i s ues s i m eri i th e  ng n
  ac                                  t s m
b kgroundw ere at w ork,andi i i p ortant to p oi out           nt
                                  or
th at th os e w h o s aw a needf enh anc dm i  e                ef
                                                       litary d ense
                   n             s b rati
w ere not jus t i th e Peop le’ L i e on A rm y ( A ) th eyPL :
            i
w ere as l kely to b f           n i l an         ni e
                        e oundi c v ii m i s tri s andth e r         i
   fl atedi
afii         nsti tutes .
                                  e ate i ofi i c rc e w ere
    B ut at th e h eart of th e d b      n fc al i l s
ques ti ons ab out th e Uni  ted States as a w orld ac   tor in
         ,
general W as h i        s      c fc ntenti
                  ngton’ s p e i i i       ons tow ard C h ina,
andth e f                     na
           uture ofU.S.-C h i relati            eed
                                        ons. Ind , alm os t all
     nes              d           e ate         l
C h i e on ev ery s i e ofth e d b w ere ab e to agree th at
any d   eleteri      h          n
               ous c anges i th e i     nternati         c ty
                                                 onal s e uri
env i ronm ent andany d          ati          na’
                          egrad on ofC h i s ow n se uri c ty
           unc on              ti
w ere a f ti of th e ac ons and i                 on
                                            ntenti s , real or
      ev ,             ted
p erc i ed ofth e Uni States .
                 c                         on” n        c
    B y m os t ac ounts ,th e “U.S. ques ti i parti ular w as
th e m os t contenti      s       e atedi
                     ous i s ue d b                    y
                                          nternally b C h i e  nes
                              oth     fc als
gov ernm ent analy s ts and er ofi i . A s oneC h i eput nes
 t,            nes       ti
i “Th e C h i e reac on to K os ov o c                       i c
                                             reated th e p ol ti al
atm os p h ere th at unleas h eda d b         y               s i
                                     e ate b th os e uns ati fed
   th           iy                              e n
w i PRC p ol c tow ardth e U.S.” A t a c rtai p oi i th ent n
  i ours e, th e ques ti ofw h eth er c rontati w i th e
ds c                    on                onf        on     th
Uni                     nev tab e e am             e
     ted States w as i i l b c e th e c nterp i c of        ee
  i ours e. Oth er ques ti
ds c                                                      eal th
                           ons rev olv edabout h ow to d w i
th e Uni                             eofs e
          tedStates andth e trad f b tw een c erati   oop        on
       onf         on th
andc rontati w i W as h i         ngton.
                c             nes                          s
    In th e lexi ology ofC h i e analy s es ,all ofth es ei s ues
                     ap          y     ng
andoth ers w ere c turedb as ki w h eth er “p eac and     e
 ev                                               m
d elop m ent” w as s till “th e key note ofth e ti es .”
                      gni i anc
    To gras p th e s i fc e of th e ques tion, one m us t
     ers          m i ati           oni            dty
und tandth e i p l c ons ofques ti ng th e v ali i of
      e       ev                                     m
“p eac and d elop m ent” as th e “key note of th e ti es ”


                                 25
 s d h i.             ng          res           ac
( h i aiz ut ) D oi s o requi a s tep b k to re all M ao c
  e ong’                                aop ng’
Z d s as s es s m ent andD eng Xi i s rev ers al ofth at
                         na
as s es s m ent. In C h i th es e as s es s m ents are not m ere
        i     n           c
exerc s es i th eoreti al ds c i ours e: th ey are th e s tarti ng
     nt or       f ng
p oi f jus ti y i or rati           zng       c fc
                              onali i s p e i i nati           iy
                                                       onal p ol c
d c s i . 9 Th eref
  e i ons                            e               if
                        ore, a rev i w of th e df erences i       n
  om        c ore gn,
d es ti ,f i andm i                     iis        fed y
                             litary p ol c e jus ti i b th ev ery
  if                            e y
dferent as s es s m ents m ad b M ao andD eng p rov i es a  d
   s      c ontext w i w h i h to v i w th e d b of19 9 9 .
h i tori al c            th    c        e         e ate
     Th eM aoi tL i : “W ar andRe olut on.”In th e19 6 0s and
                s    ne                v     i
                   s
19 70s ,th e M aoi t as s es s m ent ofth e internati        c ty
                                                     onal s e uri
env i                 om
      ronm ent w as c m only s tatedas “w ar andrev ol on”   uti
                                  s
( h anz e y u ge i . Th i w as a result ofth e p erc i ed
 z       h ng        m ng)                                    ev
m iil tary th reats to C h i f na rom th e Uni    ted States and
      c ally th eSov i t Uni af th eb
es p e i              e       on ter               e
                                            reak b tw een M os c ow
andB e ji                         unc on           d ogi al
          i ng. It w as als o a f ti ofth e i eol c lens
                c         e
th rough w h i h M ao v i w edth e w orld   .
                        s                     na’ c ty
    A s a res ult ofth i as s es s m ent,C h i s s e uri p os ture
      ts om       c iis               h     teri ed y
andi d es ti p ol c e w erec arac z b keep i th e          ng
     nes       on                             ooti
C h i e nati andth e PL A on a w ar f ng,p erp etuati           ng
 c as                th n       na,      p       ng ore gn
“ l s s truggle” w i i C h i and urs ui a f i p ol c           iy
 oc       on         i s                 th
f us ed th e“s ocali tcam p ” and erev oluti         onary “Th ird
        .”                            na
W orld F or th e m os t p art,C h i rem ai          c os ”
                                                ned“ l ed to th e
 ap tal s
c i i t w orl .  d
                      s
    A s w e know ,th i as s es s m ent h ada p rof     m    t
                                                  oundi p ac on
       c                i              om i
th e e onom y and s oc ety . Th e c b ned requi      rem ents of
  e ng             ooti                 s d ogi al m
b i on a w ar f ng andM ao’ i eol c i p erati es             v
            n             c c                        s
resulted i an autarki e onom y ; an em p h as i on h eav y
 nd       e
i us tri s m ov edi         ;                 on         iis
                     nland th e p erp etuati ofth e p ol c e of
       om      z on              c              nd
th e c m uni ati of agri ulture and i us try ; and th e
        es    ti
near-d truc on ofth e nati        onal b        s e
                                        ourgeoi i .
          ts                       d        c
    F or i p art,th e PL A w as tol to exp e t“early w ar,m ajor
                l ar           s
w ar,andnuc e w ar.” Th i m eant m ai           ni            v
                                            ntai ng a m as s i e
  ef             ls               ng              s
d en s e es tabi h m ent, rely i on “Peop le’ W ar” as a
   l tary s trategy ,anda b l e th at “superi p ol t c w i l
m ii                          ei f             or” i i al l
c             om            v    e      h       e
 ould ov erc e th e ad anc d tec nologi s of p otenti          al


                               26
                                           gh y
op p onents . It als o p erp etuatedth eh i l elev ateds tatus of
           n            nes
th e PL A i th e C h i e p ol t .iy
    Th e D e s t L i : “Pe e andD e e op m e
             ngi      ne     ac         v l      nt.” In th e late
                                   aop ng e
19 70s andearly 19 80s ,D eng Xi i b gan taki C h i     ng     na
 ow
d n a p ath of b           h             s
                      old c ange. D eng’ reas s es s m ent of th e
                     m          d       ri c d ogi al as s
“key note ofth e ti es ” p rov i eda c ti al i eol c b i
 or            ad          h        orm
f th e m y ri ofs ea-c ange ref s th at w ouldens ue. It
                    fc on or h             n
als o w as th ejus ti i ati f a c angei nati              ori e
                                                 onal p ri ti s .
                                               s
B y 19 85 D en g h ad rev ers ed th e M aoi t as s es s m en t
 om
c p letely .
    W h ere M ao s aw “w ar andrev oluti    on” as th e context f  or
internati            c ty
             onal s e uri ,D eng ac  know led            h
                                               gedth e c anges i    n
superp ow er relati                  na’               cs
                       ons and C h i s ow n pros p e t . D eng’     s
                       th          e    d
reas s es s m ent h eld at “p eac and ev elop m ent”( e i y u
                                                         h p ng
f h an)m ore c
 az                     c      es ri e             s n
                    orre tly d c b dth e trend i th e w orl .      d
               s     e                n     te
Th e D engi t v i w h eld th at, i s p i of th e c            nui
                                                         onti ng
d                  na        y             onfi ts
  angers to C h i p os edb w ars andc l c ,th ep os s i ii     b l ty
                                         h    e
of a w orldw ar w as rem ote, th e c anc of a nuc e w ar   l ar
                                      i         na i
betw een th esuperp ow ers w as s l gh t,C h i ddnot f eth e ac
         c       m
p ros p e t of i m i        nv    on,
                      nent i as i and C h i w oul e
                                                na      d njoy at
leas t2d c d s ofa p e e ul i e
            ea e           ac f nt rnati           nv ronm e .
                                            onal e i          nt
             iy h            eri
    Th e p ol c c anges d v ed f              s
                                     rom th i as s es s m ent are
                        c
w ell know n. D om es ti ally ,“ec      c           e
                                  onom i s as th e c ntral tas k”
         e                                     i
rep lac d “clas s s truggle as th e key l nk.” In f i      ore gn
       ons       na e
relati , C h i b gan to s eek c           t
                                    ontac andgoodrelati       ons
   th       ap tali                             i s am
w i th e c i s t w orldas w ell as th e s oc ali t c p ,and
   th ev
w i d elop edc            e                ev
                   ountri s as w ell as d elop i cng ountri s .e
“Ref                 ng
      orm and op eni up ” ( ge y u kai e
                                gai                   e am
                                              f ng) b c e th e
m ajor th rus t.
                    ef         iy                      f
    In th earea ofd ensep ol c ,th e PL A w as taken of a w ar
 ooti             f
f ng ands h i tedonto a p rol                 od        e m
                                   ongedp eri of“p eac ti e
          ui dng,        ni ati           orm
arm y -b l i ” th us i ti ng th e ref s ofth e C h i e   nes
   l tary th at p ers i t tod : nam ely m ov i tow ard a
m ii                   s      ay                ng
(       v              ut          h      c      v    e PL
 relati ely )leaner,b m oretec nologi ally ad anc d A .
           m                      e m l tary m od z on as
Jus t as i p ortantly ,D eng p lac d ii          erni ati
               ori n s               erni ati
th e las t p ri ty i h i “F our M od z ons.”


                                27
                                   n
    A t an en larged m eeti g of th e C en tral M i i      l tary
C om m is s ion in J u n e 1 9 85 , D en g exp lain ed h is
                          s
reas s es s m en t to h i generals . W h ile rec       zn
                                                   ogni i g th e
d                       s    ,                              orc s
 angers th at p ers i ted h e as s ertedth at “th e w orldf e
 or       e             ng as                orc s or
f p eac are grow i f ter th an th e f e f w ar.” D eng
        s
toldh i m i                 ers      e     e          e c
               litary lead to b p ati nt, to p lac e onom i     c
c          ti       ov           ,          t or         0
 onstruc on ab e all els e andto w ai f at leas t 2 y ears .
             m         na’ c          c
A t th at ti e C h i s e onom i s trength w ould p erm i a    t
                     s
greater em p h as i on m i               erni ati
                              litary m od z on.
            orw                                    ri que ofth e
     F as t f ardto 19 9 9 . C learly th en, th e c ti
        s                  uri                e ate engend
D engi t as s es s m ent d ng th e K os ov o d b               ered
          m i ati       or
m ajor i p l c ons f th eb         s              nes om
                               road w eep ofC h i ed es ti ,      c
 ore gn, andd ense p ol c e . If “p eac andd elop m ent”
f i               ef         iis           e        ev
                             ,              d             gni y
w ere no longer th e trend w h at w as ? D i K os ov o s i f th e
   um                orc s or                  orc s or
tri p h ofth e “f e f w ar” ov er th e “f e f p eac ”?           e
        d na s ef                  erni ati
Sh oul C h i rai ed ens em od z on at th eexp enseof
 c         c
e onom i ref                      i ng          ts ac
                orm ? Sh ould B e ji turn i b k on th e
  ev                ap tal s            oc ts ore gn
d elop edandc i i t w orldandf us i f i p ol c e               iis
            ev      ng           l v            onfi t th
on th e d elop i w orld exc us i ely ? Is c l c w i th e
     ted
Uni States i i l ?  nev tab e
           oni
    D rac an as th es e ques ti                                gh
                                     ons m ay s eem , th e h i ly
 h                         n      i ng n
c arged atm os p h ere i B e ji i th e af          term ath of th e
K os ov o i            on and es p e i
            nterv enti (                 c ally af ter th e erran t
  om i                                   n           e)
b b ng of th e PRC E m bas s y i B elgrad p rov i ed a       d
  ac rop
b kd agai                 c
                 nst w h i h th es e ty p es ofques ti      oul e
                                                      ons c d b
as ked and d b           or         i       m    n
                e ated f th e frs t ti e i m any y ears as
     n
C h i es e analy s ts attem p ted to m ake s en s e out of a
                      n           on
p os t- C old W ar i tern ati al ord th at, f er          rom th e
         c v            ,                       e
p ers p e ti e of s om e now s eem ed to b m ov i agai tng      ns
     nes
C h i e nati   onal i nteres ts .
    Th e d                    n     i ng uri       s
           egree of angs t i B e ji d ng th i p eri i      od s
p artially exp lai    y om          ng   na’     c
                  nedb c p ari C h i s s uc es s es i th e n
     ei                            th        n
p rec dng 3y ears ,19 9 6 -9 9 ,w i ev ents i late 19 9 8 andin
early 19 9 9 .
    Pri to 19 9 9 : Ri i th e W av e of Self C onfd nc .
       or             d ng              s       -    ie e
                                    i ng
B etw een 19 9 6 andlate 19 9 8, B e ji h adev ery reas on to


                               28
f               onfd    n ts e n
 eel new ly c i ent i i p lac i th e w orld order,
      c ally i f i afai .
es p e i      n ore gn f rs

  ?                                         w       t ri
      In th e w ake of th e 19 9 5 -9 6 Tai an Strai c s es ,
                na        on               e ac
      U.S.-C h i relati s s eem edto b b k on trac afk ter
                      d al            ts n
      th e tw o p res i enti sum m i i 19 9 7 and19 9 8. A n
                                              ti
      agreem en t to s eek a “C on s truc v e Strategi     c
                    p              e,            d     li
      Partners h i ” w as announc d andPres i ent W i l am
                                                      s
      C lin ton p ublicly s tated th e “Th ree N o’ ” in
      Sh angh ai10.

  ?         y           ter ananm en,alm os t all f i
      N earl 10 y ears af Ti                      ore gn
       c      c     ti       nst   na     e n i ted
      e onom i s anc ons agai C h i h adb e l f .

  ?                                                  ti
      B etw een 19 9 6 and 19 9 8, a v ery p roac v e f i  ore gn
                            e     y
      p olicy s p earh ead d b Jian g res ulted i th e     n
            ls                 e                  p           th
      es tabi h m ent ofa s eri s of“p artners h i s ” around e
      glob w i key d elop edc
           e th         ev          ountri s .11
                                           e

  ?               s      e on           na      c      i
      H ong K ong’ retroc s s i to C h i w as ac om p l s h ed,
               ao’          e
      andM ac s w as to b next.

  ?              gh    s                        to e
      H um an ri ts i s ues no longer ap p eared b a m ajor
       m     i              na’ ore gn c
      i p edm ent to C h i s f i e onom i relati c       ons.
      N ot only h adE urop e s eem i      os nteres t i th i
                                    ngly l t i         n    s
       s      ut         or      i    m    n
      i s ue b als o, f th e frs t ti e i m any y ears , th e
      Uni               n         i
           tedStates i 19 9 8 dd not s p ons or a res olution
       ond       ng       na
      c em ni C h i at th e annual m eeti of th e ng
           ted
      Uni N ati     ons (                gh          s on n
                         U.N .)H um an Ri ts C om m i s i i
      G enev a.

  ?      i ng           ng     e l nt           n
      B e ji w as m aki exc l e p rogres s i res olv i     ng
       ord i             th    i ors          l
      b er ds p utes w i ne gh b , notab y Rus s i anda
                                                         v
      ev en V ietn am . M oreov er, th e “Sh an gh ai F i e”
      arrangem ent betw een C h i            a,    akh
                                  na, Rus s i K az s tan,
      Taji s tan,andK y rgy z tan w as w ell und w ay .12
           ki                s                  er

  ?        na        ev
      C h i h adrec i eda c        es rom aroundth e w orl
                            c olad f                      d
       or          b     e      or uri          an i
      f “res p onsi le” b h av i d ng th e A s i fnancali
       ri s        or                     oc
      c s i , and f th e m om ent th e f us of regi    onal

                              29
        onc rn n      a          i i                    na’
       c e i A s i w as on fnanc al recov ery ,not C h i s
         s
       ri e as a regional p ow er.

   ?                 w
       On th e Tai an f                                    e
                           ront, th e PRC s eem edto b on th e
              ,         p i                   e        ef
       m ov e andTai e ap p earedto b on th e d ensi e. In   v
          dti           tai ng
       ad i on to ob ni th e “Th ree No’ ” f      s rom th e U.S.
              d          na                  ng   w     or
       Pres i ent,C h i w as p res s uri Tai an f p ol ti al  i c
                  w     ng        ti     i       c f
       talks and agi an ac v edp lom ati ofensi eto w oo  v
       th os ec        e           l
                ountri s th at s ti lrec      z Tai i
                                        ogni ed p e . Th elos s of
         i         c
       dp lom ati relati           th           ri a n
                           ons w i South A f c i 19 9 8 w as a
       s eri      l          w       n     s
            ous b ow to Tai an i th i regard        .
              c
    D om es ti ally , th e s i     on             l.    na
                              tuati w as tolerab e C h i w as
able to w eath er th e A s i          i      i    ri s    th
                                  an f n an c al c s i w i out
 ev        ng ts urrenc . G row th w as ac ep tab e i not as
d aluati i c                 y                 c     l,f
             es red               i   i ati
great as d i . Th e s oc al ds loc ons attend            ant to
 c       c orm s eem ed m anageab e alth ough c e
e onom i ref                              l,            onc rns
about labor unres t p ers i teds  .
                                                         nst
    19 9 9 : A Ye ofD i as t rs . Juxtap os edagai 3 y ears of
                   ar      s e
       v
relati ely s m ooth s aii                l                         i
                            l ng, th e c os e of 19 9 8 andth e frs t
m onth s of 19 9 9 b     rough t, f               nes            c v
                                     rom a C h i e p ers p e ti e,
om i           ev               n
     nous d elop m ents i key areas of c e            onc rn: Jap an,
    w
Tai an,and              ons th             ted
                  relati w i th eUni States . Som eofth es e
ev ents took p lac b f e e ore th e K os ov o i              on
                                                nterv enti or th e
      as        om i
E m b s y b b ng, oth ers af                    s
                                       terw ard . Th e net efect, f
                         s ears am ong m any C h i e ofi i
h ow ev er, w as to rai e f                              nes     fc als
                         c ty           s
andanaly s ts th at s e uri trend w ere now turni agai t   ng      ns
    na’ nteres ts . Th es e ev ents p rov i edb
Ch i s i                                      d     oth a c  ontext for
      e ate                  ,n           as
th e d b of19 9 9 and i s om ec es ,new i p etus d ng  m         uri
      e ate.
th e d b
                                             1
    J ap an . Th rough out th is p eriod ( 9 9 8, 1 9 9 9 )
 ev              n         e n    e e          th nc
d elop m ents i Jap an b gi to b v i w edw i i reas i   ng
              on y         nes        c t
ap p reh ens i b th e C h i e analy ti xi ong.

   ?   In D ecem ber 19 9 8 th e G ov ern m en t of Jap an
                 e ts e i on           n
       announc di dc s i to joi th e Uni          tedStates i   n
       c          h                e                 s c s le
        o-res earc ofth eup p er-ti r Th eater B alli ti M i s i
       D efense p rogram .


                                 30
   ?              h                     ti
       In M arc 19 9 9 th e Jap an M ari m e Self ef-D ense
             e i                                          i
       F orc fred up on N orth K orean v es s els — th e frs t
                i    n       y
       s h ots fred i anger b th e Jap anes e arm ed f eorc s
          nc
       s i e th e endofW orldW ar II.

   ?                      e     fed        s G d nes or
       Th eJap anes eD i t rati i th eRev i ed ui eli f
       D ef                 on th
            ense C oop erati w i th e Uni              n
                                          tedStates i M ay
                 us ng        c f or i ng                w
       19 9 9 ,ref i to s p e i y f B e ji w h eth er Tai an
               n     ed n            i
       w as i clud i th e am b guous p h ras e “areas
                  i
       surroundng Jap an.”

   ?              s d
       A ll ofth i ad edto c e                        n
                              onc rns about Jap an i th e w ake
       ofJi      s               c s ul s t
             ang’ les s th an suc e s f v i i to th at country in
                      e
       late N ov em b r 19 9 8.
                                            d
    Tai an. In early July 19 9 9 th en-Pres i ent L eeTeng-h ui
        w
 s        s                       ”    c             n
i s uedh i “Tw o-State Th eory , w h i h resultedi anoth er
     ni ri s n ros         t         ons
“m i -c s i ” i c s - Strai relati . E n ough s ai .  d
    Uni e State To one d
         td        s.          egree or anoth er, th e Uni ted
           uri
States , d ng th e d b e ate, b            e e         y
                                egan to b v i w ed b m any
            n   i ng                                 v
analy s ts i B e ji as th e root caus e ofth e negati e trends
 n                    w       f rs n     dti
i Jap anes e andTai an afai i ad i on to b c i a    e om ng
     l m n ts          gh          i      nes
p rob e i i ow n ri t. W h at ddC h i e analy s ts f us   oc
on?

   ?                                        m n s
       In Jan u ary 19 9 9 th e C lin ton ad i i tration
                  e ts e i on           orw
       announc di d c s i to m ov e f ardon Nati    onal
          s l       ens
       M i s i e D ef e.

   ?            l         h        ’ s t
       In A p ri 19 9 9 Z u Rongjis v i i to W as h i      or
                                                     ngton f th e
                                      ati       nes
       exp res s edpurp os e ofnegoti ng C h i e p erm anent
       norm al trad       ing relations (   PNTR) an d W TO
               e     p      ed n ai ure. Ind ,i late M arc
       m em b rs h i end i f l               eed n              h
                     en       ni e ate”i C h i as to w h eth er
       th ere h adb e a “m i -d b          n    na
         h         d                     v
       Z u s h oul h av egone at all,gi en th ei            on
                                                  naugurati of
                        r       gn      ns       i
       th e N A TO ai cam p ai agai t Serb a anda lac of     k
       c                th n        nes ureauc y about th e
        onsens us w i i th e C h i e b            rac
                   onc s on       i ng ouldafordto m ake i
       ty p es of c e s i s B e ji c            f               n
                       ati
       th os e negoti ons .

                               31
   ?                        s       od    nes
       Th rough out th i p eri , C h i e analy s ts b gan toe
       as s es s th at th e s o-c           -C na” v oi es i th e
                                  alled“anti h i          c n
       Uni                             ni
             ted States w ere gai ng th e up p er h and ov er
             na       iy
       C h i p ol c . Som e of th e m ore p rom i       nent “d    ata
            nts             i      nc ud
       p oi ” th ey c ted i l ed th e “C ox C om m i              ttee
                    M          th
       Rep ort” ( ay )and eL os A lam os es p i             as
                                                    onagec e; th e
            l ng                w        c ty
       tabi of th e Tai an Se uri E nh anc m ent A c     e           t
        A                 ;
       ( p ril- M ay ) th e requirem en t lev ied on th e
                                   en           ls    ts
       D ep artm ent of D ef s e to p ub i h i s tud on         y
                     c                 s c s l ef           TB
       h y p oth eti al th eater balli ti m i s i ed ense( M D )
       arch itectures in A s i i clu da n                 w
                                                ing Tai an ; th e
               b l ty
       p os s i ii of th e s ale of TB M D -related rad       ars to
            p i June) andth e c e ov er C h i s alleged
       Tai e (           ;            onc rn           na’
       f         nf         e
        uture i luenc ov er th e Panam a C anal (             .
                                                         July )
    N A TO andK os ov o. Th en,ofc       ,                  s
                                   ours e th ere w as th e i s ue
             ts .            nes   c ty               ei v
ofK os ov o i elf Som e C h i e s e uri analy s ts b l e edi    t
        ls
es tabi h ed p rec d        or
                    e ents f m iil tary interv enti       n
                                                    ons i th e
 i            f rs            gn              em
“ nternal afai ” ofs ov erei s tates andd onstratedth e
    l”
“w i l ofth e Uni              as e
                   tedStates ( v i w edf           i ng)to us e
                                           rom B e ji
 orc
f e “to m ai        n ts
               ntai i w orldd i            e
                                 om nanc .” K os ov o s h oc  ked
            nes nto ques ti ng w h eth er th e global trend
m any C h i e i              oni                                s
w ere i f  n act aw ay f   rom w ar an d tow ard C h i a’   n s
      h                 p
m uc -touted m ulti olar w orld ord        er— th e p rev i   ous
          s
analy s i .
           r am     gn e        n       h
    Th e ai c p ai b gan i M arc w h i e Ji    l  ang Z iem n
      n                         e
w as i Italy , a N A TO m em b r, as p art of a th ree-nation
              s t.   ei i
E urop ean v i i In dc dng to i              th
                                 nterv enew i m ii       orc ,
                                                  l tary f e
          d                                 nali ed c ty
N A TO si es tep p ed th e U.N . and m argi z Se uri
       i        e      na
C ounc lm em b rs C h i and          a.       n    y
                              Rus s i Th en,i earl M ay ,th e
           as        nad
PRC E m b s y w as i v ertently attac .   ked
               i oncerti g to th e C h i es e w ere oth er
    Jus t as ds c          n               n
                                  l            c
N A TO-related ev ents . In A p ri, N A TO ac ep ted Poland   ,
                       eh         lc               e
H ungary ,andth e C z c Rep ubi as n ew m em b rs . D uri   ng
        s            v         e e rati      n
N A TO’ 5 0th anni ers ary c l b ons i W as h i       ngton, a
                c       e
new “Strategi C on c p t” w as d                      n lud
                                     eclared th at i c ed
out-of         s ons                       m
      -area m i s i . A ls o aroundth at ti e ( June)w as th e
 oi ng             i         tri ,      c
c ni ofth e “C l nton D oc ne ” w h i h w as i   nterp retedin

                                 32
     na            ng       ti   y
C h i as es p ous i th elegi m ac ofm i   litary interv entions
 n         i
i s ov ere gn nati      or         tari
                    ons f h um ani an purp os es . B e ji  i ng
 m       i                       m i ati           or
i m edately th ough t of th e i p l c on s f Tai an,      w
   nji          Ti et,     aref         h     d
Xi ang,and b andc ully w atc ed ev elop m ents i              n
C h e h ny a.13
     c
                                           om
    D om e t cC onc rns. E v en on th ed es ti f
            s i         e                                       i
                                                  c ront,th efrs t
                                             or
h alf of 19 9 9 p res en ted is s ues f concern w i i          th n
                   .    gh
Z ongnanh ai H i -p rofle c
  h                                        on as
                               i orrup ti c es c      ontinued to
em barras s th e Party ; ref       orm s of th e s tate-ow n ed
            s              e om ng i fc
enterp ri es w ere b c i df i ult to c             arry out; and
c               em                          ng.
 onsum er d andat h om e w as s low i Ifth e H ong K ong
          s                     ,
p res s i to be believ ed large- s c      ale and of   ten-v iolent
 n i en                 or
i c d ts of lab un res t con ti           nued to p lague loc     al
gov ernm ents on th e m ai          .                     ng
                               nland E v en m ore unsettli w ere
        s     n             i              na
th e ri e i th e p rofle of th e C h i D em oc y Party rac
f        ng           i      s t      na 19         th
 ollow i th eC l nton v i i to C h i ( 9 8)and e“s h oc of     k”
                                      e nni     n       l
th e F alun G ong p h enom enon b gi ng i A p ri 19 9 9 and
c      nui
 onti ng tod .       ay
                      n         ew                 onfd e
     Ov erall th en, i jus t a f m onth s th e c i enc of
     nes
C h i e lead                  i                     gni i antly
                 ers and th e r analy s ts w as s i f c
                                     e n         i       en
s h aken. Th ey w ere no longer s o c rtai ofth e r p lac i th e
            er            i
w orld ord or of th e r as s es s m ent of w orld trend as s
 av ng
f ori C h i s cna’ onti         s oth at h om e andabroad
                        nuedri e b                            .
                            b                           ay
    Th e Results ofth e D e ate. A t th e endofth e d ,af     ter
                   s       nc s             s
ream s of analy s i andi e s ant round of m eeti , th e ngs
  e ate                                 s             y
d b re-lookedm any ofth es e key i s ues . A ndb th e ti e    m
        i ai
th e B e d h e m eeti              en
                     ngs took p lac i A ugus t 19 9 9 th ere w as
 l                                            fc al        i
c osure on m any ofth em : at leas t on an ofi i lev el (fnot
intellec tually ).
           l       am    n
    Th at c osure c ei th ef                              or
                                orm ofa new s h orth andf th e
s tate ofth e internati         c ty tuati ref
                        onal s e uri s i     on      erredto as
“Th e Th ree N o C h anges andth e Th ree N ew C h anges .”




                                33
                                              ollow i
   Th e “Th ree N o C h anges ” as s ert th e f      ng:

   ?                   ev
       Peace an d d elop m en t rem ain th e tren d i     n
       international relations andth e m ov em ent tow arda
             p            onti
       m ulti olar w orldc nues ;

   ?   Ec      c
         onom i glob z on c
                    ali ati onti         nc
                                nues to i reas e; and,

   ?                         s
       Th e m ajor tren d i tow ard th e relaxation of
       international tens ions.
                            nts       ii  y
    B ut th es e th ree p oi w erem odfedb th e “Th ree N ew
C h anges ”:

   ?             s                 ii s               s
       H egem oni m andp ow er p ol t c are on th e ri e;

   ?                                  n          oni
       Th e tren d tow ard m ilitary i terv en ti s m        is
        nc     ng;
       i reas i and   ,

   ?                      ev          ev     ng ountri s
       Th e gap betw een d elop edandd elop i c       e
        s nc
       i i reas ing.
     C learly , th es e tw o s ets of s eem ingly contradci tory
                                    om      s     ti     e
as s es s m ents rep res enteda c p rom i e p os i on b tw een
                          v         m s c
th os ew h o w ere relati ely op ti i ti about long-term trend s
                                     h oc
andth os e w h o w ere v ery m uc f us edon andc e     onc rned
                            v    ev
about near-term negati e d elop m ents .
                                     frm          as c
    Th e “Th ree N o C h anges ” reafi edth e b i th rus t of
       s      ir         s     na i              ac e
D eng’ earl e analy s i . C h i ddnot now f e “ arly w ar,
                      l ar               frm
m ajor w ar,andnuc e w ar.” It reafi edth e analy s es b      y
    nes
Ch i e i     nternational relati             s     nc
                                 ons th eori ts s i e th e late
19 80s th at th e w orld w ould e e v ntually m ov e tow ard a
       p
m ulti olar i   nternati           er
                         onal ord and th at C h i     na w ould
  e om                                    c    z
b c e one ofth e key p oles . It als o re ogni edth e grow i ng
 m           e    c       c n nternati
i p ortanc ofe onom i s i i                         ons
                                         onal relati . So,to a
great d          t c          or       e                  i
         egree,i ac ountedf th ev i w s ofth os ew h o ddnot
                            c ty                      onc rn
s ee K os ov o andoth er s e uri -relatedev ents ofc e as
       ri                jus                    s
requi ng a m ajor read tm ent ofth eD engi t as s es s m ent.
       s orm   on     drec         i    i   m i ati
   Th i f ulati h ad i t and m m edate i p l c ons
or     nes om     c iis             frm
f C h i e d es ti p ol c e . It reafi edth ec    c
                                             orre tnes s

                               34
of “ec         c                                     d
       onom i s as th e central task” and p rov i ed th e
conti        d       c        fc on or              ers p n
      nued i eologi al jus ti i ati f th e lead h i i
   i ng           orw         th                      c
B e ji to p res s f ardw i th e next p h as es ofe onom i    c
and s truc tural ref             nc ud             t
                     orm , to i l e th e p ursui of W TO
        e    p                  nes
m em b rs h i . So w h en C h i e i    nterlocutors s ay th at
       ng h        ”                                     e ng
“noth i c anged as a res ult ofK os ov o,th ey are not b i
  i ngenuous . Th ere w as ,i f t,no d c s i to rev ers e th e
ds i                         n ac        e i on
       s ne             i c on       om
D engi t li andth e dre ti ofd es ti ref s .c orm
                          ng i h
    H ow ev er, s om eth i d d c ange af   ter K os ov o. Th e
                               d
“Th ree N ew C h an ges ” ad ed s eri        av
                                        ous c eats to th e
                 ti                 s i    n      i
generally p os i v e long-term trend c tedi th e frs t p art of
th e construc t.
    F or one th i ng, th e “Th ree N ew C h anges ” w as an
   m s on
ad i s i th at p rev i          nes
                       ous C h i e gov ernm ent analy s es of
                     s n
th enear-term trend i th ei    nternati         c ty
                                        onal s e uri h adb een
m u ch too op tim is tic about th e p ace of global
       p     z on               h          c
m ulti olari ati and m uc too qui k to ds m i s th e i s
p otenti       es     i i         f               al
         ally d tab lizng ef ects th at loc w ars and
       w d
w orld i e m iil tary interv enti        gh                na’
                                  ons m i t h av e on C h i s
interes ts .
                   i ng’       h        -f       p
     C learly , B e ji s m uc -h op ed or m ulti olar w orld
     er
ord w as not around th e c                    dti
                                 orner. In ad i on, th e new
as s es s m ent certai        erc              on n
                      nly und ut th e as s erti i th e 19 9 8
D ef            te                  nf     e          onfi ts
     ense W h i Pap er th at “th e i luenc ofarm edc l c
      loc               en            l          .”
and al w ars h adb e rem arkab y w eakened In f t,th eac
                              erc          re             i
“Th ree N ew C h anges ” und ut th e enti tenor ofth e frs t
   c on                   ens       te
s e ti ofth e 19 9 8 D ef e W h i Pap er.
            c    h         m ii n
   Th es e ondc angei p l c t i th e “Th ree New C h anges ”
 s          nes                             aus           lm
i th e C h i e as s es s m ent ofth e root c eofth e p rob e s
 ai          d c ty                ii
f c ng w orl s e uri ands tab l ty .
           ous      i ng
     Prev i ly , B e ji h ads een th e Uni    tedStates as one
       e                     lm           ng       s c ty oth
s ourc ofs om eofth ep rob e s p lagui w orld e uri ,b
  c       c
e onom i and m ii   l tary . B ut th ere w ere p lenty of oth er
nati  ons andnon-nati   onal ac         e            lm     c
                                tors v i w edas p rob e ati . In
                          a                         nc
th ew akeofK os ov o and h os t ofoth er ev ents s i e19 9 8,th e
    x        lm
m i ofp rob e s rem ai                                ted
                         nedth e s am e. B ut th e Uni States


                              35
     i     iis                   ng     e e     as
and ts p ol c e w ere now s tarti to b v i w ed a p ri i al
                                                       nc p
      e               lm      s c ally f C h i A ndb m os t
s ourc ofth es e p rob e s ,e p e i    or     na.      y
   c
ac ounts th e “Th ree New C h anges ” i abs   out th e United
                    l v
States alm os t excus i ely .
                  gni i anc ,
     Of equal s i f c e th e new as s es s m ent, and a
   i orc d e
re nf e v i w of th e Uni       ted States as a s up erp ow er
            ”
“h egem on, s eem edto h av e p ut to res t p rev ious d ri ur
                                                         e gue
                          em
in tern al an d acad ic as s es s m en ts th at th e
 c             v
“ om p reh ensi enati                           ted
                      onal p ow er” ofth eUni States w as i    n
a s low d                          c     n
            eclin e— an an aly ti “li e” th at h ad been
c m onplac f at leas t a d c e.14 Th e new l ne s eem s to
  om          e or             e ad                  i
  e c om        e y
b a c p ani db an as s es s m ent th at th e Uni       tedStates
    l
w i lm ai     n ts                                  or
         ntai i s tatus as “s ole s up erp ow er” f th enext 2 0
        f
y ears ,i not longer.
                          ay
    A t th e end of th e d , th en, th e d              c
                                          egree to w h i h th e
        e ate analy s i of th e i
p os t-d b             s         nternati  onal and regi  onal
   c ty
s e uri env i   ronm ent, and th e as s es s m ent of th e US,
  e am         fc al ne”         lc i
b c e an ofi i “li w as refe ted n th ef ulati iorm      ons n
      i      c on         tob r 000 D ef
th efrs t s e ti ofth eOc e 2                       te
                                         enseW h i Pap er.
     Th e O c  tober 2           en         te
                       000 D ef s e W h i Pap er, C h i s   na’
N ati            fn
       onal D e e s e 2             d           h
                         000, p rov i ed a m uc m ore s ob r  e
                             s n nternati
as s es s m ent of th e trend i i            onal and regi  onal
   c ty                en      c       i        y
s e uri th an h adb e arti ulated n th eJul 19 9 8 v ers i   on.
                             rom th ei p ortant frs t s e ti of
Som eofth e as s es s m ents f         m          i      c on
th e O c    tober 2          en          te
                    000 D ef s e W h i Pap er are w orth
rev i w i 15
      e ng.

   ?          ay s    d ac                aus nstab l t
       “In tod ’ w orl f tors th at m ay c e i     ii y
               e nty h av em arke ly i re e .”
       andunc rtai               d nc as d

   ?               s                ii s     l xi
       “H egem oni m andp ow er p ol t c s ti l e s t and are
       f      r e l ng.”
        urth e d v e op i

   ?   “C ertain big p ow ers are p u rs u in g neo-
        n          on s                  i        y
       i terv en ti i m , n eo-gunboat d p lom ac , an d
            c       c ol ali
       neo-e onom i c oni s m . . . w h i h are s e ous ly
                                         c         ri
         am                           n e     e e
       d aging th e s ov ereign ty , i d p end n c , and


                              36
         e                                         e
       d v elop m ent in teres ts of m an y countri s , and
       th re ni w orl p e eands e uri y .”
            ate ng     d ac            c t

   ?   “Th e UnitedNati              ty        n     l ng
                         ons’auth ori androle i h andi
       international and regi         c ty   f rs
                              onal s e uri afai . . . are
        e ng ri        h    nge .”
       b i s e ous ly c alle d

   ?        al               onfi ts
       “L oc w ars andarm edc l c . . . h av e i reas e
                                                nc     d
       agai n.”

   ?   “Th ere are . . . ne ne
                           w                             n
                                gati e d v e op m e ... i th e
                                    v   e l        nts
          c ty
       s e uri ofth e A s i     ii
                           a-Pac fcregion.”

   ?            w        ts tuati . . . i c p l c dand
       “Th e Tai an Strai s i    on      s om i ate
          m
       gri .”
    Fi              ers ore nc    ng onc rn
      nally ,to und c i reas i c e ov er C h i e    nes
   c ty           ense W h i Pap er of2
s e uri , th e D ef         te                    e
                                       000 announc dth e
follow ing:

           n e            act           m     sm     p       ii s
    . . . i v i w ofth ef th at h ege oni and ow er p ol t c s ti ll
          st
    exi andare f               e       ng,        n     c
                      urth er d v elop i andi p arti ular,th e bas is
     or
    f th ec            s      e ul       fc on s ri        m    ri ,
                ountry ’ p eac f reuni i ati i s e ous ly i p e led
           n      l                    e ts ap
    C h i a w i l h av e to enh anc i c ability to d end i ef     ts
    s ov e i               c t y
            re gnty ands e uri y b m i   litary m eans.

    Th e Uni    que I e s ts of th e PL A . If th ere w as any
                     nt re
i     tuti n         na
 nsti on i C h i th at h ada s i fc                 orp
                                       gni i ant c orate s take
 n                         i             t
i th eev ents s urroundng K os ov o,i w as th e PL A . Need s  les
           los          h ng             y ng
to s ay , c ely w atc i and s tud i NA TO’ c p ai      s am      gn
      ns         i       t     ol ed
agai t Serb a as i unf d w as a m atter of i                ntense
     es onal i
p rof s i        nteres t. B ut th e PL A h ad an equally large
b         rati nteres t i th e i
  ureauc c i                n                           l c e ate
                                     nternal and p ub i d b
tri            y
   ggered b K os ov o. Th e d b                  d         nd
                                  e ate p rov i ed a w i ow of
            ty or       na’
op p ortuni f C h i s m ii                      ls
                                 l tary es tabi h m ent to argue
     l cy          i
p ub i l , and l kely b h i          los
                            e nd c ed d        oors as w ell, th at
nati         ef
     onal d ense and m ii                  erni ati
                              l tary m od z on d erv ed aes
              ori n
greater p ri ty i ov erall nati             ev
                                    onal d elop m ent th an h ad
  e n c ed th
b e ac ord h i erto.



                                  37
                                     i
     Th e argum ents s urroundng th e need f a greater  or
           s      ef          erni ati
em p h as i on d ensem od z on b th e PL A (  y              oth
                                                          and ers )
gai nedm om entum as a res ult oftw o ev ents : th e M ay 19 9 9
  om i                            as      n
b b ng of th e PRC E m b s y i B elgrad (n w h i h a  e i       c
     nes
C h i em ii               h                 ed,       L
              l tary attac éw as w ound ) and eeTeng-h uis          ’
                                            n     y
es p ous alofth e“Tw o-State Th eory ”i Jul 19 9 9 . In th ep as t,
     h                y                         ers p n
suc argum ents b th e top PL A lead h i i p ubi f            l c ora
        en
h adb e som ew h at p ol t c           nc       c
                            i i ally i orre t,alth ough onc i aen
      le         or              er
w h i a s eni PL A lead w ould m ake h i c e. F or       s as
             n
exam p le, i 19 9 6 D ef             ni
                          ense M i s ter G eneral C h i H aoti     an
                    c n          s fc al
w rote a long arti le i C C P’ ofi i journal,Se ki Truth e ng
          ) n        c               ,           ui i
( us h i , i w h i h h e s tated “Th e b ldng of nati
 Qi                                                              onal
  ef
d ense . . . c               ed           i tati
                  annot exc e th e l m i on of toleranc of       e
 c        c ons        ti
e onom i c truc on, nor c i b lai as i e until th e
                                    an t e d             d
e onom y h as totally p ros p e d 16 F or th e m os t p art,
 c                                   re .”
             n       lc                         ers p
h ow ev er, i p ub i , th e top PL A lead h i h adf y ears  or
  uti ully re i
d f                                   s
                 c ted th e D en gi t m an tra th at “d en s eef
m od       z on
       erni ati m us t rem ai sub i n                       c
                                            ordnate to e onom i     c
c          ti                    h      e                as or
 onstruc on.” H ere w as a c anc to p res s th ec e f m ore
 undng.
f i
                     e ntedout,h ow ev er,th at p ub i l th e top
     It s h ouldb p oi                                   l cy
               ers p i              h            s i
PL A lead h i dd not c allenge th i l ne d ng th e         uri
dbe ate. A s m enti                   ,    ng          ers p
                        onedabov e h av i th e lead h i ofth e
C entral M ii                    s on, or
                l tary C om m i s i f exam p le,m aketh ec ei     as n
                   uri          h
th e p res s d ng s uc a p eri of em oti  od                  s
                                                       onali m and
s ensati          s          i        ll       ti rom a d es ti
           onali m w as l kely s ti too s ensi v ef            om       c
p ol ti al s tand oi 17 N ev erth eles s , th ere s eem ed to b
    i c              p nt.                                              e
p lenty ofs eni c                            i        e fc
                    or olonels andoth er feldgrad ofi ers w h o
              te l i
w ere qui w i l ng to m ake th e argum ents . C ons equently ,
  uri
d n g th e p eri         od of th e d                      s
                                         ebate th e PL A ’ of i i f c al
new s p ap er, L i e  b ration A rm y D aily ( e angjun B ao)
                                                 Ji f                   ,
c      e                   i                    ni
  arri d an unendng s tream of “op i on p i c s ” f       ee        rom
 n iv d               fc
i d i ual of i ers th at w arn ed th e n ation of th e
c onsequenc s ofie     gnori nati
                               ng           ef    ,        th
                                       onald ense h y p ed eth reat
            y
p os ed b th e Uni        ted States to i  nternati              e
                                                    onal p eac and
      i               , n
s tab lity , an d i s om e cas es , argued th at m i i           l tary
      erni ati                 at
m od z on s h ould leas tbeequal to nati              onalec    onom i  c
c onstruc on.ti


                                  38
                          s         m ng
     In th es e regard , th e ti i ofK os ov o c           ouldnot h av e
  en                          ng,
b e better. F or one th i w ork on th e10th F i e-Year Plan v
 2         005                 y       er
( 001-2 )w as alread und w ay b not y et c p lete. ut            om
                   l    h     e            or       nc
Th ere w as s ti la c anc to p res s f an i reas ei f i       n undng.
                                       i r, n
M oreov er, jus t 8 m onth s earl e i Jul 19 9 8, Jiy            ang h ad
ord                               i       ts
      ered th e PL A to dv es t i elf of i c m erc al   ts om           i
            s                  orp                re
enterp ri es — th e largec orate em p i th at i h adrun f   t            or
                     c         d
m any y ears w h i h p rov i edth em ii                 th
                                            l tary w i a s ourc of( e 1)
           ud
extra-b getary f              s or         i             ty
                          und f s older “quali of l f , ( )      i e” 2
                   or                          em     ii ed fc
em p loy m ent f PL A s p ous es andd ob l z ofi ers ,( )                3
s u p p lem ental op erati  ons andm ai      ntenanc (  e O&M ) f s ,und
        4 und or
and( )f s f equi m ent p rocp             urem ent. Not only ddth e i
                        ts orp               ti s ut t i
PL A los em any ofi c orateenti e ,b i dds o und a                     er
  l .             e i on
c oud Th e d c s i to h av e th e m i                  i             e
                                             litary dv es t w as ti dto
    d e rough t to th e attenti of Ji
ev i enc b                                on         ang of large-s c   ale
           i
s m uggl ng and c                on y
                       orrup ti b s om e m ii                 om
                                                     l tary c m ercal   i
en tities in th e s outh . C ons equen tly , th e K os ov o
interv enti   on, and es p e i                  om i
                                 c ally th e b b ng of th e PRC
       as      n            e,
E m b s y i B elgrad gav e th e PL A an op p ortuni to               ty
b        s ts m
  urni h i i age am ong th e general p ubi b ri i th e  l c y dng
  res
c t ofnati            s          m                 ef ers
                 onali t s enti ent as th e d end ofC h i e           nes
s ov erei  gnty .
                   c     s c nteres ts as i e N A TO’ K os ov o
    Th es e p arti ulari ti i                  d,          s
i           on        rov                     n
 nterv enti als o d eh om eto m any i th e PL A onc agai        e    n
                     ap b l t e             l xi       etw
jus t h ow large a c a i i i s gap s ti l e s tedb een th e r        i
                orc s                             v
ow n arm ed f e and th os e of th e ad anc d W es tern  e
     ons s c ally th e Uni
nati , e p e i                                  v      ter
                                 tedStates , e en af nearly a
  e ad
d c e of p os t-G ulf W ar ref                      erni ati
                                    orm and m od z on. Th e
 rus       on
f trati of s om e m ii                 fc                    v
                            l tary ofi ers at th e relati ely low
    ori
p ri ty ofm ii              erni ati n
                l tary m od z on i th e greater s c em e of   h
nati         ev                       c         y
     onal d elop m ent w as arti ulatedb a general li of          ne
                         i        s
argum ent th at goes l ke th i : “W e w ere toldth at w e w oul      d
           e      e
h av e to b p ati nt,th at m ii              erni ati
                                l tary m od z on w oul h av e   d
          t onom i m od z on. W eh av eb e pati nt f
to aw ai ec         c      erni ati                  en         e or
  0
2 y ears . H ow l  ong m us t w e w ai  t?”
                             c              i
    B ut th e PL A rh etori s urroundng K os ov o s erv ed
          m                                        gh i
anoth er i p ortant p urp os e. It w as us edto h i l gh t to th e
     nes         orc s        m
C h i e arm edf e th e i p ortanc off    e           ng
                                              ollow i th rough

                                   39
   th         d          ng
w i th e w i e-rangi p rogram s ofref          orm th at h ad b   een
und    erw ay f   or th e las t d          e.
                                     ecad M an y of th es e
ref                          n
     orm s — es p ecially i th e areas of f        orce s truc   ture
  ow      zng
d n s i i and p ers onnel ad i i tratim n s         on— h ad b e  en
        ng             s      e e ow             e
m eeti s om e res i tanc b l . A s C h i f of th e G eneral
      f
Staf F u Quany ou h ad oi  p nted                     e
                                   out a y ear earli r,gras s roots
     ts                  om         i     ep
uni h ad to ov erc e “s elfs h d artm entali m and          s
                s
ov erem p h as i of loc i                              orw
                         al nteres ts ” and m ov e f ard w i       th
                                             18
 h         or
c angef th egreater goodofth e PL A . E s p e i               n i
                                                      c ally i l gh t
of th e s i      on         w                      ers p
           tuati on Tai an, th e PL A lead h i us edth e
K os ov o i           on      th  e ate e turei ow n p eop le
           nterv enti and ed b to l c                 ts
th at ref           m    erni ati
          orm and od z on ofth em ii           l tary w as a s erious
und          ng                               rati
      ertaki andnot m erely a bureauc cexerc s e.          i
         le t s l ar
    W h i i i c e th at m i                   erni ati
                                  litary m od z on w as not
    ng
goi to s up p lant ec           c onstruc on as th e nati
                         onom i c           ti                onal
    ori
p ri ty ,or ev en b e              t n           s
                      e qual to i i em p h as i , s om e ofth es e
               y                 y              e
argum ents b th e PL A ,or b oth ers on b h alfofth e PL A ,
      ab y            m                         nes
p rob l h ad an i p act on th e top C h i e lead h i .     ers p
           or
C learly ,f v ari  ous i             i c                  onc rns
                        nternal p ol ti al reas ons,th ec e
ofth e PL A c  ouldnot be totally i          .
                                      gnored C onsequently ,not
         ter                 as       om i
long af th e PRC E m b s y b b ng, rum ors abound               ed
           e                           p    d th
th at th ec ntral gov ernm ent h ad rov i ed em i      litary w ith
a large,s u p p lem ental lum p -sum i us i off s .19
                                         nf on     und
      v          all or
   G i en th ec f enh anc dnatie             ef       y
                                       onal d ens eb th e PL A
              n                     e ate,th e d i e ofm any
andoth ers i th e p os t-K os ov o d b           em s
       us nes nteres ts ,th es e uri as s es s m ent arti ulated
PL A b i s i                     c ty                    c
 n         tob r 000 D ef
i th eOc e 2                        te             th
                         enseW h i Pap er,and ep ol t c ofii s
   c on, i w as not too m uc of a surp ri e w h en i
suc es s i     t                     h              s           n
   c m e 000 th e C h i e F i
Dee br 2                  nes           e ni
                                   nanc M i s ter announc d    e
    nc                    e or ef
an i reas e of17.7 p erc nt f d ense s p endng f 2i or 001.
                          e ate of 19 9 9 w as an oc as i f
    Ov erall th en, th e d b                        c on or
   i ng                 s      w    er out
B e ji to v ent,angui h ,and ond ab C h i s nati na’     onal
   c ty
s e uri andth e f                     na
                   uture ofU.S.-C h i relati   ons.




                                40
Interregnum : D ecem ber 19 9 9 Th rough A p ril 2001.

               fcal
    A t an of i i lev el,“th e great d b            am          l
                                           e ate” c e to a cos ei    n
                                      i ai          ers p
late A ugus t 19 9 9 w h en th e B e d h e lead h i m eeti         ngs
p rom ulgated th e “Th ree N o C h anges and Th ree N ew
                                  l    cm e
C h anges .” It w as not unti D e e b r, h ow ev er, th at th e
     l c e ate i th e C h i e m eda fnally c e to a c os e.
p ub i d b          n         nes        i i          am          l
        s      nt n m , h           e                ti s
A t th i p oi i ti e t e c ntral auth ori e ap p arently
  e i ed                       l c e ate
d c d th at enough pubi d b on th ei s ues ofnati  s              onal
  ef      ,
d ense nati              c ty               nes ore gn
                 onal s e uri ,andC h i e f i p ol c h ad     iy
             e                                     of
taken p lac am ong th em as s es . B y th eend 19 9 9 ,e i    dtors of
                                             ly
th e m ajor new s p ap ers w ere rep orted no longer ac e ti  c p ng
       s rom th e r read h i s or w ri ng edtori on th es e
op -ed f             i     ers p            ti       i als
 s                                       ng s            th
i s ues . Th ere w ere oth er p res s i i s ues w i w h i h to   c
                       c on,         nc p on n b
grap p le: W TO ac es s i th e i e ti i Fe ruary 2              000 of
                           gn,
th e “G o W es t” cam p ai th ec          nui
                                     onti ng “Th ree Rep res ents
           gn,                          om      c
C am p ai ” anda h os t ofoth er d es ti andf i p ol c   ore gn     iy
 s                              c                        ed e one
i s ues ; not th eleas t ofw h i h w as th ew ork need to b d
                  v                      e nni
on th e10th F i e-Year Plan,th eb gi ng ofth es uc es s i     c on
      e                                         or
p roc s s , and th e p rep aratory w ork f th e 16 th Party
C ongres s .
    B y th e s um m er of2                      nes ore gn
                           000,h ow ev er,C h i e f i p ol c      iy
                        e    n         ng as
analy s ts w ere onc agai runni f t to keep up w i                 th
          n           ted                 on
ev ents i th e Uni States . A ttenti w as now f us edon  oc
      s                   ng     d al          ti    am
tw o i s ues : th e ongoi p res i enti elec on c p ai and    gn
          e on               c
th ep erc p ti th at A m eri an m ii                           f ng
                                     l tary s trategy w as s h i ti
        a—         nes onc rn               ac d
to A s i a C h i e c e th at surf e ev en b f th e        e ore
             ti       c                     s
B us h elec on v i tory and th e s ub equently p ub i h ed    ls
        re al f nse v e QD                s
Quad nni D e e Re i w ( R)i s uedb th e Pentagon   y
 n
i Sep tem b r 2e 001.
     Th e c    y i          or      nes
           atal zng ev ent f C h i e analy s ts w ond ng    eri
                          c oc        f z
about a U.S. “s trategi f us s h i t” ( h anlue z ongdian
                                                       h
          )       a                                       r
z uany i to A s i w ere new s rep orts th at th e U.S. A i F orc
 h                                                              e
  es redto f ard ep loy s toc i of c s e m i s i e to
d i           orw      -d        kp les       rui        s ls
         n
G uam i th e s um m er of 2            nes onc rns about a
                             000. C h i e c e
          c f nger tod , e p e i
“s trategi s h i t” li                          v
                            ay s c ally gi en s om e ofth e
            n          e        oc
language i th e rec nt QD R d um ent.


                                 41
                                                 nes om
    F or th e m os t p art,h ow ev er,th e C h i e c m uni of     ty
         c
A m eri a exp erts w as f     ully engaged f              ng
                                                  ollow i elec on  ti
    i c n             ted              w      eri
p ol ti s i th eUni States and ond ng and p e ulati        s c       ng
                     d e
about w h at w oul b “better f C h i or      na”— a B us h or a G ore
     ti     c
elec on v i tory . Th eonly p eop leli                 rus
                                         kely m oref trated an    th
            c          lc          m     t          ei e i
th e A m eri an pubi at th e ti ei took to d c d fnally th e
     ti
elec on w i                    orp            nes
             nner w as th e c s ofC h i e A m eri a exp ertsc
                  a l        er
w h o w ere p rob b y und trem end          ous p res s ure to exp lain
                ng                         m i ati
w h at w as goi on,andw h at th e i p l c ons ofa B us h or
         c          ef             or       na.      m
G orev i tory or d eatm eant f C h i A n d any a C h i e          nes
insti                  ts und n
      tute w as tedi f s i h av i d        ng elegati    ons go to th e
Uni                 n
     ted States i late N ov em b r 2                or
                                         e 000 f p os t-electi       on
f      i i                     v      th
 act-fndng, only to arri e w i out an elec on d c s i    ti     e i on
m ad  e.
        ter              l ci           onfrm     ,
     A f th e B us h e e t on w as c i ed argum ents w ent
  ac
b k andf             n      na               m i ati
              orth i C h i as to th e i p l c ons. C auti        ous
      m s
op ti i ts p oi                     s ath                   ,
                  nted to B us h ’ f er, “L ao B us h e ” as a
p rob         orc or
       able f e f am eli               ng               lc
                                 orati th e Rep ub i an Party
  am      gn          c
c p ai rh etori . E s p e i            i onc rti           i ng
                               c ally ds c e ng to B e ji w as
          ori on
th eexc ati ofth eC l nton-Jii                        ti
                                       ang “C onstruc v eStrategi   c
               p               t
Partn ers h i ” con s truc an d th e s ub ti      s tuti on of th e
            c
“Strategi C om p eti             e.
                        tor” lab l Th ey p oi ntedout as w ell th at,
                                 c        c     ti s
s ooner rath er th an later,e onom i reali e w ouldtri p h , um
                   us nes om            ty      d
andth e U.S. b i s c m uni w oul ev entually w e gh              i
 n. ter                                    s
i A f all,B us h ands om e ofh i p ri i al d  nc p          e
                                                       eputi s w ere
f         orp                c
 rom c orate A m eri a. Th ey argued as w ell th at all
   m ni          on
ad i s trati s s tart out “tough ” on C h i          na, and th ey
rec                 i         am      gn
     alled th e C l nton c p ai s logan ab                  od l ng
                                                     out “c di
dc                                           d
  i tators .” Th os e on th e oth er s i e of th e argum en t
  i s
ds m i s edth es e li                     s
                       nes of analy s i as d i elus on. Th e trend  ,
               ,              y l ar:          ted
th ey argued w as alread c e th e Uni States i b nt on     s e
  onf       ng      na
c ronti C h i on all f                                  c
                                ronts andth eB us h v i tory m eans
          e anc
th e as c nd e ofth e “anti h i   -C na” elem ents . A t th e endof
       ay                ,          ted
th ed ,th ey arguedth e Uni States w as s ti ld       l eterm i  ned
to p urs ue a s trategi ob              v
                            c jecti e of “w es terni i andzng
    i t ng” C h i
spl ti           na.
                     nc d      c             l
   W h en th e E P-3i i ent oc urredon A p ri 1,2001,th es e
                   ar rom res olv ed b f th em om ent th ey
argum ents w ere f f                , ut or

                                 42
             n h c                                 e
w ere h eldi c e k as th e PRC G ov ernm ent tri dto dc d   ei e
           o out a s i
w h at to d ab               on
                       tuati th at c           c y eteri
                                      ouldqui kl d         orate.
    s ar          y                         ers       i
It i f too earl to ev en attem p t to und tand(fw e ev er
 an)       alc us y        c     i ng ted s-à-v i th eUni
c th ec ul b w h i h B e ji ac v i                 s          ted
           uri               ay              c
States d ng th e 11 d s th e A m eri an ai rew w as  rc
  etai
d nedon H ai                   .     or   s
                   nan Is land B ut f th i s tud ent,at leas t,it
       l ar         m
w as c e at th e ti e and          ns l ar     ay       om
                             rem ai c e tod th at d es ti       c
    i c n        na
p ol ti s i C h i w ere p aram ount.
     Ji                   or            ers p
       ang andth e s eni p arty lead h i h adlearneds om e
 m
i p ortant les s ons as a res ult ofth e errant N A TO attac onk
                as     n          e n
th e PRC E m b s y i B elgrad i M ay 19 9 9 . M os t ofth es e
              to o th          om      c e ,
les s ons h ad d w i th ed es ti s c ne not i         nternati onal
relati                  na
       ons or U.S.-C h i relati                  l ar        m
                                  ons. It w as c e at th e ti eof
              nc d      n
th e E P-3 i i ent i A p ri 2   l 001, th at Ji             d
                                                   ang w oul not
c             e           ti
 ountenanc a rep eti on of th e s i            on
                                         tuati th at took p lac   e
   ter       om i       m
af th e b b ng al os t 2 y ears earl e      i r.
                               l ar ndc              s   rs
    Th ere w ere th ree v ery c e i i ators of th i . F i t,
Ji               e        e ers p am
   ang andth e c ntral l ad h i c e out “tough ” on th e
Uni  ted States f                                 e
                 rom th e s tart. Th ere w ould b no room
          or c
allow edf ac us ati   ons f                 n     na
                           rom any quarter i C h i th at th e
                                      li
Party and gov ernm ent w as unw i l ng or i     ncap able of
  ef i         nes          i         i ty
d endng C h i es ov ere gnty anddgni as w as th ec e    as ,
                  , ter              e om i
s om e h adargued af th e B elgrad b b ng.
        c ,                d e
     Se ond th ere w oul b no s tud                  h ng
                                          ents m arc i th rough
                         ng       e e ng                    as
th es treets or gath eri at or b s i gi th e U.S. E m b s y as
 n                   s             c                      h
i M ay 19 9 9 . Th i , one s us p e ts , w as not s o m uc out of
  onc rn or               c                onc rn
c e f th e A m eri ans as out ofc e about s tab l t             ii y
                        i ng         e      .           ti
on th e s treets ofB e ji and b y ond Th e s ensi v e “M ay
            od             h       l                ,
4 th ” p eri w as m uc too c os e at h and as w as th e
      v
anni ers ary ofth e d   eath ofH u Yaob         A     l          ,
                                           ang ( p ri 15 ,19 89 ) a
   gni i ant         or          ent                n
s i fc ev ent f th e s tud m ov em ent i th e s p ri of        ng
            , ours e th e F alun G ong p rob e h ady et to b
19 89 . A nd ofc       ,                         lm                e
  om
c p letely res olv ed  .
        rd      i       m    i      od ter       om i n
   Th i ,unl ke th ei m edate p eri af th eb b ng i
                           e       i ree or      ”
M ay 19 9 9 ,th ere w ouldb no m eda “f f all, no great
            c e ates ab
and p ubli d b            out nati        c ty     iy
                                  onal s e uri p ol c , no
 ri c s                                          ng
c ti i m s of th e gov ernm ent, and no re-op eni of th e

                                43
       e       ev
“p eac andd elop m ent” ques ti      on. A ll th ings c    d
                                                       onsi ered  ,
d                             en
  urin g th e E P- 3 in cid t, th e PRC G ov ern m en t
  em                 e   n         ap l t s
d onstratedonc agai h ow c ab y i i able to re gn-i        i     n
                                         20
          i         t h            o               v
th e m eda w h en i c oos es to d s o. Relati ely s p eaki     ng,
                  i al i ali i
th ere w as no radc edtori zng th at c d               erc
                                             oul und ut PRC
                   ti
gov ernm ent p os i ons or s erv e to reop en d be ates th at h ad
                                      21
        y en               fc ally             ie
alread b e res olv ed“ofi i .” A n y b l th at need to      ed
  e          n
b v entedi th e p res s couldb d  e one at th e exp ens e ofth e
     ted            s m
Uni States th i ti e around        .
                  s                 n
   In oth er w ord , and ov erall, i th e w ake of th e E P-3
 nc d                   s m
i i ent, th e Party th i ti e s tay ed ah ead of C h i enes
nati     s                ndgnati andw as not c as i
    onali m andp op ular i i         on               h    ng
  ter t,            as  ter           as    om i n
af i as w as th ec eaf th eem b s y b b ng i 19 9 9 .

Pos t E P-3andth e Sum m er of2             na
                               001: Is C h i th e
     s
U.S.’ N ew E n em y ?

                nc d      i               e ate
    Th eE P-3i i ent ddnot reop en d b on th ep ros p e ts     c
 or       e     d
f “p eac and ev elop m ent”or th es tateofth ei      nternational
   c ty
s e uri s i  tuati           t i                        on
                  on. B ut i dd reop en th e p orti of th e
           b
“G reat D e ate of19 9 9 ” th at w as th e m os t contentious and
           c
up on w h i h th ere w as th e leas t c                   m
                                       onsensus at th e ti e: th e
f                   na
 uture ofU.S.-C h i relati .  ons
        ore                               ,     e ore c
    B ef th eU.S. E P-3w as returned andb f Se retary
             i                  onfrm        s s t    i ng,
ofState C ol n Pow ell ev en c i edh i v i i to B e ji a
n ew d   ebate w as u n d    erw ay am on g th e C h in es e
        c       h ng om          ty    nc
A m eri a-w atc i c m uni . Si e at leas t M ay 2        001
                           en              n
th ey h ad ap p arently b e engaged i anoth er round of
intense d be ates , s em i             ngs       onf    e
                          nars , m eeti , and c erenc s at
     c        s                   iy             na
w h i h th e i s ue of U.S. p ol c tow ard C h i w as b ie ng
  i us
ds c s ed  .
                nc d                   m       aus
    Th e E P-3 i i ent w as th e p roxi ate c e ofth e new
roundofm eeti             i us ons           t
                ngs andds c s i . B ut i w as not th e s ole
 aus      ke
c e. L i th e unp rec d  e entedd b         n              e ate
                                    e ate i 19 9 9 , th e d b
       e        ter
th at b gan af th e A p ri 2           nc d       red
                              l 001 i i ent d ged up a
      ng i
grow i l s t ofc e                         ti
                  onc rns th at w ere aw ai ng ev aluati  on.



                               44
                                 c                  nc d
    B ut th ere w as one as p e t of th e E P-3 i i ent th at
 l arly h ada v ery p rof
ce                                m     t
                          oundi p ac up on analy s ts andth e
               lc n
general p ub i i C h i      na (      , nc d
                                 and i i entally , up on th e
       c         lc           .      c fc
A m eri an p ubi as w ell) Sp e i i ally , th e i   ntense new s
 ov                       n                  n     na
c erage ofth e ev ent i th e W es t andi C h i m ad v ery e
    l c or
p ub i f p rob               i      m                 h
                  ably th e frs t ti e jus t h ow m uc “cat and
            ti ty          ng       e
m ous e” ac v i w as goi on b tw een th eU.S. andC h i e    nes
   l tari s
m ii e .
   So as ofth esum m er of2001 th ef       ng      ons
                                    ollow i ques ti w ere
 e ng           n     nes          c i ls     e
b i exp loredi C h i e analy ti c rc e onc agai     n:

   ?                      n
       H ow s h ould C h i a as s es s th e curren t s tate of
                 na
       U.S.-C h i relati ons?

   ?                na  iy       l                m ni
       W h at “C h i p ol c ” w i l th e B us h ad i s tration
         op
       ad t? and    ,

   ?                            c or uture relati
       W h at are th e p ros p e ts f f          ons?
    C entral to th es e oth er ques tions w as “H adth e United
         e i ed             na s
States dc d th at C h i i th e enem y andth at th i w i   s   ll
  ri           iy               na                       c ty
d v e U.S. p ol c tow ardC h i andth e U.S. larger s e uri
           n
s trategy i A s ia?”
                   as uri           e ate n             d
     A s w as th ec ed ng th ed b i 19 9 9 ,a w i e range
                           nes           ty
of v iew s am ong C h i e s ecuri an aly s ts on th es e
         ons             ly     .
ques ti w as alleged h eld M oreov er,as w as als o th ec e   as
 n                        i       nd        ni
i 19 9 9 , analy s ts of l ke-m i ed op i on c           e ound
                                                  ould b f
 ros ng nsti onal and b
c s i i tuti                            rati ound e . Som e
                                ureauc c b           ari s
   s            f
ob erv ers ofered th at th e PRC gov ernm ent “learned i       ts
les s on” f           e ate of19 9 9 : alth ough th e d b
           rom th e d b                                e ate w as
    ti
“ac v e andi          , t       ond ted n
                ntense ”i w as c uc i a “c                 ed
                                                 ool-h ead and
          c as on” andm os tly kep t out ofth e m eda.
analy ti f h i                                         i
         onc us ons are know n to h av e b e reac ed M any
    No c l i                               en         h .
     nes            ei v    th     t        l oo
C h i e analy s ts b l e ed at i w as s ti lt early to m ake
       onc us ons about U.S. p ol c e or i
any c l i                          iis       ntenti  ons tow ard
     na.                m ,           nes
C h i A t th e s am e ti e m any C h i e analy s ts w ere s ai d
            th                                          s n
to agree w i a general as s es s m ent th at th e trend i U.S.
    iis          ti                na n              ew
p ol c e andac ons tow ardC h i i th e las t f m onth s


                              45
      een        v                     i     d       nts
h adb “negati e.” Th ere w as along l s t of ata p oi th at
           nes i          ndc ng           v        n
m any C h i ec tedas i i ati a negati e trendi “B us h
   m ni
ad i s trati           na   iy A      n, i ng
              on” C h i p ol c . ( gai l s ti th es e p oints
  oes     ndc       onc       e
d not i i ate c urrenc .)Th es e i l ed nc ud :

   ?                am   gn       c          ng     na
       Th e B us h c p ai rh etori p ortray i C h i as a
                 c om    tor,               c
       “s trategi c p eti ” not a “s trategi p artner”;

   ?            m ni      on                          th
       B us h ad i s trati p lans to m ov e ah eadw i B M D
        p    ev       e i ted
       ( erc i edto b drec p arti                 na)
                                     ally at C h i ;

   ?                     ng
       Th e s trength eni of U.S.-Jap an m ilitary relations
        als       ev        e i ted
       ( o p erc i edto b drec at C h i ; na)

   ?                   -C na       c                y
       Th e “loud anti h i v oi es ” th at op enl p oi to  nt
          i ng                                  h
       B e ji as th e next enem y ,andres earc m onograp h s
        y
       b s om e U.S. th i              w               ev
                           nk tanks ( rongly p erc i ed to
                                         iy
       rep res ent U.S. G ov ernm ent p ol c ) th at p rop os e a
                 na i y        on          c
       U.S. C h i p ol c op ti term ed“ ongagem ent”;

   ?              e on           oc
       Th ep erc p ti th at th ef us ofth enew U.S. m i  litary
                   s   f ng rom E urop e to A s i andth at th i
       s trategy i s h i ti f                    a             s
           f s i c           nst
       s h i t i dre tedagai C h i  na;

   ?              es re         l            i
       Th e U.S. d i to m ov e c os er to Inda;

   ?          s       l 001 rem arks ab
       B us h ’ A p ri 2                         ef
                                       out th e d en s e of
           w
       Tai an;

   ?   Inc       ng                     w
           reas i arm s s ales to Tai an and es p e i c ally
                i
       exp andng m i il tary c       ts   th    w
                              ontac w i Tai an ( om e s
            nes
       C h i e analy s ts argue th e Uni           s
                                        tedStates i m ov ing
                   e ac o l tary alli e w i Tai e )
       tow arda d f t m ii            anc    th   p i;

   ?           e           s t
       Th e rec nt U.S. v i i by L ee Teng-h ui;

   ?          ei f              nes
       Th e b l e ofs om e C h i e analy s ts th at th e United
                           ”
       States “p res s ured Toky o to allow L ee Teng-h ui to
          s t
       v i i Jap an;

   ?                   t              -b an;
       Th e U.S. transi ofC h en Sh ui i

                               46
   ?              tud
       Th e “atti e” of th e Pentagon tow ard m i i l tary
       relati       th    na nc              p s e;
             ons w i C h i s i e th e E P-3 e i od

   ?                   k”            gh   n     na n
       Th e U.S. “attac on h um an ri ts i C h i i
       G enev a;

   ?   Th e ap p ointm ent ofa State D ep artm ent c    i
                                                    oordnator
        or b tan afai andth e D alaiL am a v i i and
       f Ti e          f rs                        s t;   ,

   ?                       -C na” atti es ofs om e ofi i
       Th e general “anti h i         tud            fc als
       ap p oi                  m ni
              ntedto th e new ad i s tration.
                                        nes
    C learly , th ere w ere s om e C h i e analy s ts w h o w ere
        y onv nc d
alread c i e th at th e Uni          tedStates h add ies gnated
     na      ts                          ei v
C h i as i next enem y . Oth ers b l e edth at th e Uni       ted
                     y e i ed                   k”
States h adalread dc d up on a “tw o-trac C h i p ol c na i y
         om i
th at c b n es “ec              c
                        onom i engagem en t an d m i       litary
c      nm            ll                          s     na i y
 ontai ent.” Sti oth ers arguedth at B us h ’ C h i p ol c
               e e i ed
h ady et to b d c d .
                   onv nc d
    N ot allw ere c i e th at th ef                     ons
                                        utureofrelati w as as
  i           e                                        ndv d
dre as rec nt ev ents w ould sugges t. Th es e i i i uals
     ed                      i ng’
tend to argue th at B e ji s and W as h i                s
                                                   ngton’ m utual
i          n      l
 nteres t i s tab e relati         or                  c       i
                            ons f reas ons of s tri tly s elfs h
nati onal i                                              v
           nteres ts w ere s o s trong th at th e “negati e trend”
w ould b a                            nt,
          e rres ted “at s om e p oi ” th at p ragm ati m i s    n
W as h i             d                      l,”
        ngton “w oul ev entually p rev ai andth at relati      ons
                     m
w ouldev entually i p rov e.
                     n
    F or exam p le, i late M ay 2                 na
                                   001 th e C h i Insti   tute of
C ontem p orary Internati   onal Relati          C
                                            ons ( IC IR) h eld a
f                     na
 orum on U.S.-C h i relati                   c
                               ons to w h i h v ari  ous exp erts
        nv tedto p res ent th e r v i w s . In sum m ari i th e
w ere i i                      i     e                  zng
                  onf     e n       i
results of th e c erenc i th e r journal, C IC IR edtors    i
p oi                        h
    ntedout m any ofth e c allenges f     rom W as h ington. B ut
      onf     e            n                    ed
th ec erenc sum m ary i th ejournalend on a relati ely       v
     m s c
op ti i ti note:

                       cp
    M ost ofth e p arti i ants to th ef          e
                                        orum trac dth ec  urrent s tate
         f rs       iy
    ofafai to p ol c gui ei                 d            n es gnati
                           d l nes ofPres i ent B u s h i d i        ng
       i ng            gi om
    B e ji a “s trate c c p eti                ts i t
                                     tor” and i t l to th e Tai anw


                                   47
             ti s n
   auth ori e i s u p p ort of e                   v ati
                                      lem ents ad oc ng “Tai an     w
    n ep       en
   i d en d ce.” C h ina h as clearly been th e target of
   W ash ington’ c               eav                  ng e
                  s urrent end or at strength eni ti s w ith i         ts
       e             ng             th ts
   alli s andp us h i ah eadw i i NM D p rogram . B ut all th i         s
     oes       gni y                   n                s
   d not s i f th e last w ordi th e B us h team ’ C h i p ol cna     iy
     ea
   b c us e externalandi                     nts
                            nternal res trai w ouldm ake th e B us h
      m ni        on                      v l
   ad i s trati return to a relati e y rati       onal c           ter
                                                          ours e af a
        od                                         ov           s,
   p eri of reas s es s m ents . B ased on th e ab e analy s i m os t
        ii         ei v                 s          or      m s
   p art c p ants b l e e th at th ere i n o needf p es s i i m about
          u
   th e f ture of C h ina-US relatio n s h ip . Un av oi able    d
   contradci               ri ti      o         cs    l
            i t ons and f c ons d not ne e s ariy s p ell los s of
   c          e aus           c s or onf c             e
    ontrol b c e th e p ri e f c li ts w ouldb p roh i i v ely  b ti
                        e 2
      gh or oth p arti s .2
   hi f b

        s i fc                  th
    It i df i ult to s ay w i any c rtai  e nty th at th e ab e ov
      m s c                   “h       ul” gh
“op ti i ti ” as s es s m ent ( op ef m i t be a better w ord       )
                    v               ty          c ty
w as rep res entati eofa m ajori ofPRC s e uri analy s ts or
       t                   om       y       e      nt.
th at i rep res enteda c m onl h eldv i w p oi Som eofth e
ac                                                       onf
   tual p ap ers th at w ere p res entedat th e C IC IR c erenc    e
                                                                 2 3
         ,                          m s c
s eem edon th ew h ole,les s op ti i ti th an rep orted   abov e.

        on    uri          om
Operati “E n d ng F reed ”— Sp eculating
                 t
A bout PRC Securi y C oncerns.

        v ous                               e         h
     Ob i ly , th e ev ents of Sep tem b r 11 c anged th e
     re
enti context of th e B us h -Ji                 t.
                                  ang Sum m i A lth ough th e
           s t        na
B us h v i i to C h i w as m uc c          ld        ac
                                 h urtai e , th e f t th at th e
        c          d
A m eri an Pres i ent w ent to Sh angh aito attendA PE C and
m eet w i Jith            er      i um         e
                 ang und th e c rc s tanc s w as c e      l arly a
  e i on th           ti m
d c s i w i p os i v ei p a tb         n      na       th
                               c oth i C h i and rough out
           on.
th e regi Th e m eeti c e                  d
                          ng l arly p rov i edb            ers
                                                 oth lead th e
  blt              ac           k         m           l
a i i y to m ov eb k on a trac tow ard ores tab erelati        ons.
A n dto th e d   egree th at b                  e n ons
                              oth m en h av e b e c trai       ned
               y om      c i c n        i           h     i
s om ew h at b d es ti p ol ti s i th e r ap p roac to b lateral
   e        i      es      om               n
ti s , th e r p rof s ed c m on caus e i th e w ar agai t       ns
         s            e                    or
terrori m enh anc d th e argum ents f engagem ent on a
           ce
s trategi l v el.
                     m ,
   A t th e s am e ti e h ow th e Uni  ted States and th e
 oal t on am
c i i c p ai agai gn                  b
                         nst th e Tali an— andth e greater
         nst        s       ol s    l e     h     th
w ar agai terrori m — unf d w i l b w atc edw i great


                                   48
c       y        orp          nes     c ty
  are b th e c s of C h i e s e uri analy s ts . One c        an
     c                    nes     l e
s p e ulateth at th eC h i ew ilb v ery w ary ofth ep otenti    al
        v
negati e c              m     t                      e
             ollateral i p ac ofth e p os t-Sep tem b r 11 w orl d
     er or      nes     c ty onc rns i general ands p e i i
ord f C h i e s e uri c e                 n                  c fc
          nes
key C h i enati            c ty nteres ts i parti ular. In th i
                    onals e uri i            n      c            s
 i        c on,        t i
fnal s e ti p erm i a b t ofs p e ulati about th e negati e
                                    c     on                   v
 m      t     nes     c ty                           n
i p ac C h i e s e uri analy s ts m i t s ee i w h at h as
                                           gh
tran s p i      nc            e
          reds i e Sep tem b r 11.
     Im p ac on Paki tan: A K e Se uri y Partne C h i
            t          s            y    c t       r.     na
  l m          t           l tary alli e ,andi th etech ni al
c ai s th at i h as n o m ii          anc s    n          c
              s    te              or              s
s ense th at i qui true. B ut f m any y ears Paki tan and
Chi                            los     c ty
      na h av e been v ery c e s e uri p artners . Th e r  i
  om        aus s as                     i
c m on c e i b edon s h aredds trus t ofan end ng      uri
                     s         i            n s n
m utual an tagoni t— Inda. B ut C h i a’ i teres ts i      n
       s          e                     m
Paki tan trans c ndth at s h aredani os i . ty
            i ng,        s      s
    F or B e ji Paki tan i one ofm any key Is lam i s tates  c
       t ulti          n      er h e
th at i c v ates i ord ac i v e s om e lev erage i th e         n
                d       ng
M os lem w orl , ow i to c e      onc rns about its ow n res ti e   v
                    nc         nji          s      s m
north w es t p rov i e of Xi ang. Paki tan’ i p ortanc to         e
     na        en             s     nc
C h i h as b e on th e ri e s i e January 2                    na
                                                    001. C h i h as
                     h                         m n s
n erv ous ly w atc ed as th e B us h ad i i trati            on h as
re-l              ous
    ookedp rev i U.S. allegati                      na onti
                                     ons th at C h i c       nues to
       er      s l eh         ogi s
transf m i s i e t c nol e to Is lam abad and B e ji ,           i ng
                      nc d onc rns w atc i th e new i p etus
analy s ts h av e ev i e c e               h ng              m
 n           ted           or         h m nt th
i th e Uni States f rap p roc e e w i Inda.              i
               l nk                                       e
     In th e b i ofan ey e th e ev ents ofSep tem b r 11 h av e
w i                      i y       c
    tnes s edan am azngl qui k U.S. return to engagem ent
    th       s              e       c
w i Paki tan. F orc d to “ h oos e” betw een th e Uni             ted
                         b         m    t         th
States andth e Tali an regi e i h adh i erto s up p orted            ,
                    e ts h c ,              nes      c ty
Is lam abadm ad i c oi e andC h i e s e uri analy s ts
c           ut
 annot b w ond ab                                m i ati
                     er out th e long-term i p l c ons ofth e
               e               s       c ty
reem ergenc ofU.S.-Paki tanis e uri relati                 or ts
                                                      ons f i ow n
equi   ties th ere. M oreov er, s h ould th e gov ernm en t i       n
       s
Paki tan und            ts
                  ergo i ow n i            i ati
                                 nternal ds loc ons as a resultof
 ts            or
i s up p ort f W as h i               nes nteres ts w i lb op en to
                           ngton,C h i ei               l e
         on.       ng
ques ti H av i m ov edf                  i erati p ari to ac v e
                               rom p rol f      ng      ah       ti



                                 49
          n               n gh    s            m      v
p artner i th eU.S. w ar i A f ani tan,along-ti eand ery
 l         nes  c ty                     oot n oth am
c os eC h i es e uri p artner now h as a f i b c p s .
    Im p ac on Si
            t                                     h m nt th
                   no-Rus s i Re ati . Rap p roc e e w i
                             an l ons
       a s i                         nes ore gn     iy
Rus s i i l kely th e greates t C h i e f i pol c s uc e s  cs
                   d      19          od             c
of th e p os t-C ol W ar ( 9 1) p eri . G eos trategi ally , th e
     of no-Rus s i ani os i h as res ulted n C h i h av i
end Si              an    m     ty             i     na        ng
    ay               c            ord     t
tod th e m os t s e ure landb ers i h as ev er enjoy ed In   .
July 2          ap ng                    iy m
       001,c p i 10 y ears ofs teadl i p rov edrelati       ons,
      d
Pres i ents Ji                 i r
                 ang andV ladm i Puti sin gneda m ajor treaty
  m           nsti onali i th e r “C oop erati e Strategi
ai ed at i tuti             zng      i            v             c
              p
Partners h i .”
          le i ng
     W h i B e ji and M os c                  i           s    c
                               ow h av e th e r ow n h i tori al
                          e      h          v
reas ons to look as kanc at eac oth er,e ents ofth e las t f    ew
                raw          l                     i i ally
y ears h av e d n th em c os er togeth er p ol t c . B oth
      on
nati s are f         am            i      s i       th
                 und entally ds s ati fed w i h ow th e
             W          ord          ol ed
p os t-C old ar w orld er h as unf d . In sh ort,th eglob        al
    i c       c     c
p ol ti al, e onom i , and m iil tary p row es s of th e Uni   ted
                en                           f rs or
States h as b e an unh ap p y s tate ofafai f eac . B oth h
nati                 al           if     —    th
      ons w ant glob p ow er dfus ed w i at leas t s om e
            c ng            n         h          z
p ow er ac rui to th em — i a m uc -th eori edm ulti        -polar
w orldord   er.
           onv         e        i i al e
    Th e c ergenc ofp ol t c v i w s betw een B e ji and  i ng
       ow        en          f d          ti
M os c h as b e m ani ol : op p os i on to th e exp ansi of   on
                            p or         e om
N A TO andPartners h i f Peac ; c m on c e agai t    aus        ns
                  ng
th e s trength eni ofm ii                anc s n
                             l tary alli e i th e Pacfc(  i i read
                                a,             ;        ti
U.S.-Jap an, U.S.-A us trali U.S.-ROK ) op p os i on to th e
U.S. N ati          s le
            onal M i s i D ef                                    or
                               ensep rogram ; m utual s up p ort f
    i         c v     l m
th e r res p e ti e c ai s to s ov erei          n      c
                                          gnty i C h e h ny a and
     w              n                ti
Tai an ; con joi ed op p os i on to extern al m ilitary
interv enti           er                              tari s
             ons und th e “p retext” of h um ani ani m ; a
new -f          ei f n                 ti
        ound b l e i th e s anc ty of th e U.N .; m utual
 onc rns about i
c e                        ii y n                a,
                   nstab l t i C entral A s i anda s e uri   c ty
                      onv      e e n         c
arrangem ent of c eni nc i w h i h B e ji p roc     i ng       ures
m ii                               h        e
    l tary w eap ons an d tec nologi s unav ai         lable to it
              n          or          ng          a’ aii
els ew h ere i return f p rop p i up Rus s i s f l ng d ense ef
 nd       al om           th
i us tri c p lex w i th os e p urc as es .h



                               50
    In Oc e 2                                    ter nki
             tob r 001, les s th an 3 m onth s af i ng th e
      h           ed              a              e
m uc -h erald treaty , Rus s i s eem ed to b th row i i  ng ts
    i                  nd
tac t s up p ort beh i th e U.S. m i litary op erati        ns
                                                    ons agai t
   gh      s       y         i n                      c orc s
A f ani tan b not s tandng i th e w ay ofA m eri an f e
        ng n orm er Sov i t ci nts i C entral A s i and
s tagi i f                  e le        n               a,     ,
            ly       ow e                 ts         p
rep orted ,M os c b gan to s tep up i arm s s h i m ents to
               ti                anc orc s
th e op p os i on North ern A lli e f e .
    B ut p rob             h         i onc rti
                ably m uc m ore ds c e ng f                     nes
                                                     rom a C h i e
         c v ,       n e                tti
p ers p e ti e Puti b gan transm i ng w h at ap p earedto b         e
s erious “f             out tually joi ng N A TO und c rtai
            eelers ” ab ac              ni                 er e n
  ondti           h        n             z on.
c i ons ofc ange i th at organi ati Rus s i s eem edto   a
      z                      c                         e
reali e th at th e tragi ev ents of Sep tem b r 11 m i t         gh
ac           e                ty i            i ts
   tually b an op p ortuni fnally to al gn i elfi a s eri n      ous
          th i ty                                 th
w ay ,w i dgni ,as an equal p artner w i th e W es t af           ter
                              an ore gn       i y i o.
alm os t 10 y ears ofRus s i f i pol c l m b It m ay jus t
  e            n      z th s              ow s
b th at Puti reali ed i w as M os c ’ op p ortunem om ent
     o     n                 oul      m               i
to d s o i a w ay th at c dulti ately res us c tate Rus s i s     a’
f        ng
 alteri ec                                        m
                onom y and at th e s am e ti e enh anc i       e ts
internati                ge.     eed                   n
            onal p res ti Ind ,th e B us h -Puti m eeti on     ng
      ri                  n
th e f nges ofA PE C i Oc e 2                             e
                                tob r 001 s eem edto b rep orted
 n                                h          us
i th ew es tern p res s as m uc m orerob t th an th em eeti      ngs
   th
w i Ji          n              s
          ang i th e latter’ ow n c                            cs
                                        ountry . Th e p ros p e t of
        a         ng
Rus s i “leani to th e W es t” c                   e
                                         annot b a c f   om ortab el
            n    i ng, e en th ough rev i edRus s i relati
th ough t i B e ji        v                 v           an       ons
   th
w i th eW es tw ouldc            nl       e
                           ertai y not b at th eexp ens eofC h i  na
 n                        h
i th e s ense th at suc ali     gnm ents w ere p lay edout d nguri
th e C oldW ar.
    Im p ac on th e Sh angh ai C oop e i Organi ati
           t                          rat on       z on. If
         h m nt th           a s i                     nes
rap p roc e e w i Rus s i i l kely th e greates t C h i e
 ore gn      iy    c                                od
f i p ol c s uc es s of th e p os t-C old W ar p eri , th en
   i ng’      c     s      e ng         e     p n
B e ji s s e ond i ach i v i m em b rs h i i th e W TO.
   i ng’      rd         ore gn    iy      cs
B e ji s th i m ajor f i p ol c s uc e s , alth ough les s
                          ng             v    orc e nd
w ell know n, w as s erv i as th e m oti e f e b h i th e
c      on                             on         z on SC
 reati ofth e Sh angh ai C oop erati Organi ati ( O)
 n
i June 2   001.
      gi                                 v ,      na,
   Ori nally know n as th e“Sh angh aiF i e ”C h i Rus s ia,
    akh         ki                z             en
K az s tan,Taji s tan,andK y rgi s tan h adb e w orki    ng


                                51
              nc                            i ord         i
togeth er s i e 19 9 6 to res olv e th e r b er ds p utes ,
         e
enh anc m i            onfd e ui i
              litary c i enc -b ldng m eas ures am ong
    i           orc s
th e r arm edf e , and c           i         c ty
                              oordnate s e uri w ork agai t     ns
th e s o-c                  l              s              s
          alled “th ree ev is ” of “terrori m , s ep arati m , and
f       cs     n               a.
 anati i m ” i C entral A s i In sh ort, th e SC O rep res ents
                      d           d i
                                    s
oneofth e p os t-C ol W ar w orl ’ frs t new regi            c ty
                                                     onal s e uri
    h tec
arc i tures . A n dto th e d                     na         en
                                egree th at C h i h as b e th e
      v orc e nd t, t s l m
m oti e f e b h i i i i c ai edas a s uc e s .     cs
    In June2                             v           orm
                001 th e“Sh angh aiF i e”trans f ed ts elfi  i      nto
th e “Sh an gh ai C oop erati                       z
                                    on O rgan i ation , ad ed ”    d
    b s
Uz eki tan as a s i        xth m em ber, an d f                zd t
                                                      orm ali e i s
intenti   ons to p ursue m ii          c ty n            ord
                             l tary s e uri i th eb er regi         ons
 n                        as on            n
i a m ultilateral f h i , to i clud es tablis h i e               ng a
c                 s     e       n s
 ounterterrori m c nter i B i h kek andev en h ol i out       dng
              c or om i
th e p ros p e ts f c b nedm i                     i      n
                                     litary exerc s es i th e f  uture.
        m           e             ni ati
Th e i p ortanc of th es e i ti v es to C h i s s e uri  na’     c ty
i            n               as
 nteres ts i C entral A s i i und c               y       ac
                                      ers oredb th ef t th at th i    s
 s         i      m
i th e frs t ti e ev er th at th e PRC h as b e a f al  en       orm
si gnatory to a m ulti ati   n                    ty
                                   onal s ecuri arc i ture. h tec
                         om i
M oreov er, s h ould c b ned m i                      i
                                        litary exercs es ev er take
     e t ll e            i      m
p lac ,i w i b th e frs t ti e ev er th at th e PL A h as trai     ned
           i        th
or exerc s edw i any f i m ii ore gn               n          ng
                                           l tary i any th i oth er
                           v s
th an th e role of “ad i ors ” or trai                    s s m
                                               ners — th i i s i p ly
unp rec d            or
          e entedf C h i    na.
                                                      e
    E n ter th e ev ents p urs uant to Sep tem b r 11. W h ere
     na              a
C h i andRus s i enjoy edd i                  e              e n
                                   om nanc of p res enc i th i       s
  ri c         on,         s
c ti al regi th erei now th eob i                        e
                                         v ous p res enc ofth eU.S.
m iil tary — not m erely as trai                           cp
                                     ners or as p arti i ants i     n
  om i
c b ned            i         h                B
             exerc s es s uc as C E N TRA Z A T-9 7— b i f eut n orc
             c ng
and p ros e uti a joi                   i       om i , l tary
                             nt, and l kely c b ned m ii
   f     v
ofensi e. To th e d    egree th at th e SC O s erv edth e c  ollateral
     nes
Ch i e i                         ng
             nteres t of keep i U.S. m i                  orc s rom
                                                litary f e f
   h e ng ooth ol i C entralA s i th at ob c v eh as b e
ac i v i a f           dn                 a,        je ti          en
und i            n      l ar, gni i ant, andp rof
     erm nedi a c e s i fc                             oundw ay . To
w h at d                                e
         egree th e d f t p res enc ofU.S. m ii
                      e ac o                                  orc s n
                                                      l tary f e i
           on,
th e regi andth e ob i               i i al       c        c
                           v ous p ol t c ande onom i p res enc      e
 n           on           l      s          om at, l h
i th e regi th at w i l p ers i t p os t-c b w i l c ange th e
   a ii y
v i b l t or nature of th e SC O as an organi ati i a     z on s

                                 52
        on                      ng         n   nes
ques ti th at m us t be getti as kedi C h i e analy ti       c
  i ls            ni                      en   ee s       n
c rc e . A t a m i m um ,a U.S. p res enc i Uz b ki tan i a
           b       gh   s      s             bl t     v
p os t-Tali an A f ani tan i a real p os s i ii y , gi en th e
   c ty               e                          ly
s e uri as s uranc s Tas h kent h as rep orted as ked of
W as h i        n         or ts         ti
        ngton i return f i v ery ac v e s up p ort.
                               s e i on          e
   Im p ac on Jap an. Toky o’ d c s i to b p roac v e i
            t                                           ti     n
  f ng
oferi th e Uni                    s c              y
                   ted States logi ti s up p ort b th e Jap an
     ti              ens      e n          cni
M ari m e SelfD ef e F orc s i th e v i i ty ofth e Indan    i
   e      s         ng                i ng’ onc rns about
Oc an i not goi to as s uage B e ji s c e
        s         c ty      rati     n
Jap an’ “real s e uri as p i ons”i th eregi           n     te
                                                 on— i s p i of
   m        ni          c ro     z ’             on
Pri e M i s ter Juni h i K oi um is as s erti th at Ji       ang
                s     ers    i
exp res s ed h i “und tandng” of th e rati             e nd t
                                               onale b h i i
 uri         i       ng n    i ng n
d ng th e r m eeti i B e ji i earl Oc e 2y     tob r 001.
                              or         ndc on
     A lw ay s on th e alert f any i i ati of Jap an’            s
          al or
p otenti f an exp and m i i                            e n
                             ed l tary p res enc i A s i        a,
      nes
C h i e analy s ts w ill li            e            s
                             kely v i w Toky o’ s up p ort of
          on                                   odc l
Op erati E N D URING F R E E D O M as a c i i und w h i her     c
                   l onti
th e Jap anes e w il c                         nes    ei v s
                          nue w h at th e C h i e b l e e i th e
i                    h
 nexorable m arc aw ay f                  c
                              rom A rti le 9 of th e “Peac       e
         tuti     A    i                       i ng’ onc rns
C onsti on.”( n d t m ay jus tbeth at B e ji s c e on
    s     c        l e uttres s ed b l ke-m i ed th i ng
th i ac ount w i l b b                 y i         nd       nki
em anati f                         s    ti      n
           ng rom Seoul.) Jap an’ ac ons i support ofth e
      ted           l e
Uni States w i l b s een th rough th e lens ofa c       ontinuum
         nc ud         ev                             or
th at i l es p erc i ed Jap anes e s u p p ort f Tai an      w
 nd         enc , onc rn
i ep end e c e s ab             out th e Re i e U.S.-Jap an
                                              v s d
G ui ed lines f D e e s e C oop eration— es p ecially th e
                 or    fn
   b                                  i             ”
ne ulous p h ras e “areas s urroundng Jap an, andToky o’         s
c             h   th
 o-res earc w i W as h i                            e
                            ngton on up p er-ti r s ea-b ed  as
TB M D .
                                                           v ous
    Im p ac on B ord r Se uri y . C learly , th e m os t ob i
            t         e    c t
d eleteri       fc            on
         ous efe t ofOperati E N D URIN G FRE E D O M f       or
     na s           act      ts     ng      e n ountry w i
C h i i th ev ery f th at i i taki p lac i a c                th
     c       na              er.     ii            c ty n
w h i h C h i s h ares a bord Stab l ty ands e uri i th e
14 nati         th    c      na         om          ord
        ons w i w h i h C h i s h ares c m on b ers — not
to m en ti          n    n n
            on m ai tai i g good relati               th
                                             ons w i th os e
c        e    s      ori         c ty s         or i ng.
 ountri s — i a p ri ty -one s e uri i s ue f B e ji



                               53
              ng                ts      p             ii
    C ontrolli ev ents on i p eri h ery , s tab l ty on i        ts
      p                     n            s
p eri h ery , and en s uri g th ere i n o s p ill ov er f     rom
 n      ii        ts      p                    ng
i s tab l ty on i p eri h ery are ongoi and h i tori al   s     c
     nes
Ch i e c e                     gh      nt               nc
            onc rns. One m i t p oi out th at s i e 19 4 9 ,
     na
C h i h as c      s
              onsi tently v i w edi
                              e            ii        ts     p
                                    nstab l ty on i p eri h ery
as a s eri                           ts
          ous th reat,andm os t ofi m ii    l tary interv enti ons,
                   s ,         en                            ev
ov ert or oth erw i e h av e b e th e result of th e p erc i ed
                                  ts ord
need to s h ap e w ars along i b er, p reem p t p os s i le     b
                                                             24
          on,
aggres s i or as s ert s ov erei                     ord
                                gnty along th os e b ers .
          m      i       nes onc rn l e
     Th ei m edate C h i ec e w i lb th ep otenti f        al or
ref                                         ord t
    ugees to s tream acros s th e s m all b er i s h ares w i th
   gh     s         na’ c          onc rn ll
A f ani tan. C h i s s e ondc e w i be th e p otenti          al
 or b ow ac        n    nji             nc y
f “ l b k” i Xi ang Prov i e b non-H an Turki                   c
   gh                      nes                  rd e
Ui urs w h o op p os eC h i erule. Th e th i ti r ofC h i e nes
  onc rn
c e s w il b l                                       l
               l e onger term — h ow long w i l th e U.S.
  am     gn                                        l       e
c p ai las t, w h at ty p e of gov ernm ent w i l rep lac th e
      b                      l
Tali an, andh ow long w i l U.S. m ii            orc s
                                         l tary f e rem ai in n
         on ter
th e regi af th ec                           b         , ours e
                       ollap s e ofth e Tali an? A n d ofc      ,
as m enti             y        m      t                ov
           onedalread ,th e i p ac ofall ofth e ab e on th e
   a ii y                           m    n              .
v i b l t of th e M us h araf regi e i Is lam abad Ov erall,
f            nes     nt     e t s         i
 rom a C h i e p oi ofv i w ,i i unl kely th ec      urrent U.S.
  am     gn l e e
c p ai w il b v i w edas a “goodth i         ng.”
    Im p ac on N ati
            t                                      na’ je ti
                       onal M i s i e D e e . C h i s ob c ons
                               s l       f nse
to th e U.S. Nati             s l
                      onal M i s i e D ef ense Program are w ell
          y
know n b now and            no             on.    fc t
                       need exp lanati Sufi ei to s ay th at
   i ng l e onc rned th at th e attac on th e Uni
B e ji w il b c e                                k            ted
            l c                      l ar    s l ef
States w i l ac elerate th e nuc e m i s i e d ense ( M D )N
                   nh b t t.            e    ndc
p rogram , not i i i i Th e b s t i i ator of C h i e        nes
 onc rns along th es e li
c e                                s             c
                             nes i th e analy ti argum ent one
 oul           n                                   e
c dreadi th e PRC p res s p os t-Sep tem b r 11 d c ari e l ng
                  s        k              ted              ”
th at th e terrori t attac on th e Uni States “p rov ed th at
th e greates t th reat to th e Uni               s
                                     tedStates i not a s o-called
                    th     s l , ut            h
“rogue s tate” w i a m i s ie b low -tec w eap ons usedb         y
nons tate ac  tors .
          fc y       s              d, h         l e onc rn
    Th eefi ac ofth i argum ent as i e t ere w i lb c e
       n                      e
th at i th e w ake ofSep tem b r 11 p rev i     i
                                           ous ds agreem ents
                th e n                    e     l all y
ov er N M D w i c rtai E urop ean alli s w i l f b th e


                               54
         d n             ng                       or
w ay s i e i an ongoi s h ow of s up p ort f W as h i        ngton.
                  l e       nes onc rn                   c n
A ls o, th ere w i l b C h i e c e th at th e v oi es i th e
Uni                  i ng                 e
      ted States c ti th e Sep tem b r 11 ev ents as “p roof
      ti                  or           ll       l
p os i v e” ofth e needf N M D w i p rev ai— es p e i    c ally now
                             i      c                 s
th at th e s p ecter of b ologi al w eap on s i n o lon ger
             c                  i onc rti
h y p oth eti al. B ut m os t ds c e ng, f        rom a C h i e nes
         c v , ll                  bl t               an
p ers p e ti e w i be th e p os s i ii y th at Rus s i res olv e on
       s                  -B    s c s l A
th e i s ue of th e A n ti alli ti M i s i e ( B M ) Treaty w i l   l
s tart to w eaken.
                        l h                         e
    Ov erall th en,w h i e t e ev ents ofSep tem b r 11 andth e
B us h -Ji            t                     ri c       nes and
          ang s um m i h av e s erv ed a c ti al C h i e (
           c ty      je ti
U.S.) s e uri ob c v e— nam ely s tab l zng b l ii i     i ateral
       ons t s
relati — i i not enti            l ar, as qui
                          rely c e b ed te ad i              l
                                                      m ttedy on
              c     on,                   h ng       c on
m y ow n s p e ulati th at th eov erarc i p ros e uti ofth e
           nst        s             y         ted
w ar agai terrori m w agedb th e Uni States andth e
         al ollateral c anges i th e i
p otenti c              h          n       nternati         c ty
                                                    onal s e uri
           l e               ti or       na ros
m ii u w ilb s een as p os i v ef C h i ac s th eb
    le                                                        .
                                                         oard B y
       m      s         s
th eti eth i v olum ei p ubi h ed th ei
                               ls     ,     nternati        c ty
                                                    onal s e uri
env i                             h
     ronm ent m ay w ell h av e c angedandturnedov er onc        e
     n,              nes alc            gh
agai andth e C h i ec ulus m i t be qui dferent i  te if         n
                  m           ti        m        be         c
w ay s th at at ti e of w ri ng are i p os s i l to s p e ulate
about.

        i
C onclud ng C om m ents .

            ons       n               na       ons p
     One c tant i th e U.S.-C h i relati h i th at w i l         l
       s                l         e
p ers i t andth at w i l trans c nd c                    s m
                                       urrent ev ents , i s i p ly
    s          s                 n oth
th i : th ere i am p le reas on i b W as h i ngton andB e ji i ng
                                               ii
to s eek and s ecure m u tually ben ef c al bilateral
        ons
relati — es p e i           c ty        ons
                  c ally s e uri relati .
                        s      eep                    i
    H ow ev er, th ere i a d - s eated m utual ds trus t
                     c v      c ty       ls
betw een th e res p e ti e s e uri es tab i h m ents on b oth
   d                ii           l
s i es of th e Pac fc th at w i l not go aw ay v ery s oon,
        les                  c         h      on
regard s ofth e p ragm ati s tep s eac nati takes on th e
                      ons      s h        y
roadto better relati . Th i c ap ter, b as s i   gnm ent,h as
 oc       on    nes onc rns. Th eUni States h as i ow n
f us ed C h i ec e                     ted             ts
           s v ngs
s et ofm i gi i .


                                55
                     n      nes      c ty
      Ifth e trendi C h i e s e uri analy s es p res entedi       n
     s h         s        l         e ng                  t l e
th i c ap ter i ev en cos eto b i on th em ark,th en i w i lb
          i fc          h              tud n
v ery df i ult to c ange atti es i B e ji                     nes
                                                   i ng. C h i e
  onc rns ab
c e            out U.S. i  ntenti           e nni              e
                                   ons are b gi ng to trans c nd
     c fc i i s n ontenti transc ndng p erh ap s ev en
s p e i i p ol c e i c             on,       e i
       s           w              na,       c
th ei s ueofTai an. In C h i analy ti m om entum h as b e      en
  ui dng                    ew
b l i ov er th ep as t f y ears th at argues th at th eUni     ted
           s nh                 le       na
States i i erently h os ti to C h i andth at th e s trategi       c
    je ti               ted                      na s
ob c v e ofth e Uni States tow ardC h i i noth i les s     ng
                s     ti            na’ s
th an th e ob truc on of C h i s ri e as a m ore ri h and c
         ul
p ow erf nati           es te                 y
                  on— d p i s tatem ents b B us h and   Pow ellto
th e c                                       iis n           on
        ontrary . C ons equently , U.S. p ol c e i th e regi or
               na ts         l e nc        ngl i
tow ardC h i i elfw il b i reas i y flteredth rough a
s et of lenses th at are alread c b   y ali rated to ensure s om e
  i       on.
ds torti Th ep h ras e “            ng
                            , Seei th e ac        ut m   ni
                                             orn b i agi ng th e
                               25
              om
oak tree” c es to m i .    nd
           ons th            ted                   m
    Relati w i th e Uni States m oreand orep res ent
          nes      ers p      th           ng i e
th e C h i e lead h i w i a grow i dl m m a. On one
      ,                   on   p     th
h and a s table relati s h i w i th e Uni         ted States i   s
 nc       ngl    e       y    i ng
i reas i y v i w edb B e ji as one p rerequi i f th es te or
    c                  m
s uc es s of th e all-i p ortant ref               a
                                      orm agend th at f e   ac s
Z ongnanh ai at h om e. A n dto th e d
  h                                                       c ul
                                          egree th at suc es s f
c     nui
  onti ng ref                  s                        ty
                orm at h om ei th ekey to th e longev i ofth e
C C P,th e “U.S. f tor” p lay s as w ell, e en i i i tly .26
                  ac                       v   f ndrec
                       m ,     ev     h             y
     A t th e s am e ti e p erc i ed c allenges b th e Uni     ted
                   nes
States to C h i e nati       onal i                  c ally th os e
                                   nteres ts — es p e i
   e           h
v i w edas c allenges to s ov erei gnty — c annot b i e gnoredb   y
          nes       ers p
th eC h i elead h i . Oneh ears and             s
                                           read m oreand orem
 n           nes                                           i ty
i th e C h i e p res s about th e needto up h old“th e dgni ”
              nes                               ti
of th e C h i e p eop le, not jus t th e s anc ty of C h i e nes
s ov erei gnty .
                t       tob r 001 augurs a h op ef b gi ng
    Th es um m i ofOc e 2                           ul e nni
 or
f th e tw o nati  ons to renew s eri               c i
                                      ous s trategi dalogue on
          c rum of i s ues th at h av e b e ad res s edi th i
th e s p e t        s                    en      d        n    s
 h                  d
c ap ter. B ut am i th e p led         y                d
                                ges b th e tw o p res i ents to
       ls          c      s    or           c i       ,
es tabi h new m e h ani m s f s trategi dalogue am i th e  d
    edc on
red i ati to c      onti                     e ii
                          nue m utually b nefcal ec      onom ic


                               56
 oop
c erati         n         d                ng
          on, i th e m i s t ofp res enti a uni    teds tandin
 eali        th       al          s
d ng w i glob terrori m , th ere w as one s um m i           t
 b                    ons c          y ts s      e
“ as ket” th at w as c p i uous b i ab enc — a s tatem ent
about future m ii l tary -to-m i             ons
                                litary relati .
       nc
    Si e at leas t 19 89 th e m i            i      on     i
                                    litary dm ensi of blateral
       on          e om
relati s h as b c e one of th e m os t c           ontentious and
  i fc          c               na e             e om
df i ult as p e ts ofU.S.-C h i ti s . Ith as b c ead es tiom      c
    i c s         n oth      i ng
p ol ti al i s uei b B e ji andW as h i                        n
                                               ngton. E v en i th e
             m      i i
bes t of ti es , fndng a m utually s ati f i      s y ng m i il tary
  i       on
dm ens i to b l             e          e n rus        ng
                  iateral ti s h as b e a f trati end or      eav
 or                      ue               n
f both p arties d to grow i g m utual s us p i i               c on,
i     tuti                   e           om     ng
 nsti onal as y m m etri s , and c p eti ob c v es . Inje ti
  m          i
ti es of blateral d                 l tary relati
                        ures s , m ii                            i
                                                 ons are th e frs t
 i         e          ed            e       m
l nks to b s us p end . In th eb s t ofti es ,th ey are th e las t
     e      nto
to b p ut i p lac .  e
            n
     Som e i th e Uni   tedStates h av e arguedth at, w i th eth
  em s                e       on,
d i e ofth e Sov i t Uni th ere i no l      s   onger a “s trategi   c
rati          or
     onale” f th e Uni      ted States to engage th e PL A . In
    i ng, s om e C h i e h av e als o arguedth at th e “ri e of
B e ji                nes                                       s
        c               s         i       s
A m eri an h egem oni m ”h as l kew i eund i              a
                                                erm ned C h i e  nes
rati         or                      th
     onale f engagem ent w i th e U.S. D ep artm ent of
D ef ense. D etrac tors of m ii  l tary relati       n
                                               ons i th e Uni      ted
               om
States h av ec p lai         th               oes
                        ned at th e PL A d not “rec p roc  i      ate”
U.S. op ennes s and th at “th e PL A gets m ore out of th e
       ons p            oes
relati h i th an d th e Uni                                  i
                                       tedStates .” F or th e r p art,
           nes                        je ti
s om eC h i e argue th at th eob c v es ofU.S. m i                  e
                                                          litary ti s
                                nh                 l .”
andU.S. “op ennes s ” are i erently “h os ti e Th e Uni            ted
                      h             na,
States w ants “to c ange C h i ” to “d              s are) C h i ”
                                              eter ( c            na,
       c
and“ ollect i   ntelli       e           na y      ng
                      genc ” on C h i b us i th e m i          litary
relati h i .27
       ons p
                                                 e
     A llofth es e argum ents m ay v ery w ell b trueofth ep as t.
       t s
B ut i i not c        c or i        d                          s
                 orre t f e th er s i e to argue th at th ere i no
                     c
longer a s trategi rati         or
                         onale f a m ii                ons p
                                         l tary relati h i . Th e
 act                                              or      i
f ofth e m atter m ay be th at at long las t,f th e frs t ti e   m
   nc h                                      i
s i e t e endofth e C oldW ar, th ere fnally i a s trategi
                                                     s             c
rati         or l tary -to-m ii
     onale f m ii              l tary c       ts        t s m
                                       ontac . A n di i s i p ly
    s onfi t         d e
th i : c l c av oi anc .


                                 57
         s l ar
     It i c e th at th e m ii             orc s
                                  l tary f e ofth e Uni tedStates
               na l nc            ngl e            ng n
andofC h i w i l i reas i y b op erati i p roxi i to        m ty
     h               s                               c
eac oth er. Th i w as s h ow n m os t grap h i ally on A p ri 1, l
2              th       s                 nc d        s
  001,and es ub equent E P-3i i ent. It i als o c e th at l ar
          s              ng i
th ere i a grow i ds trus t betw een th e tw o m i           litary
                              s
es tablis h m en ts . It i clear as w ell th at b                d
                                                        oth s i es
ac              ge s        m         e            m      l cy
   know led ( om eti es qui tly , s om eti es p ubi l ) th e
        b l ty                           onf
p os s i ii of an unw anted c rontati ov er Tai an.on          w
             nts                                ng
Th es ep oi alone are th em os t p res s i argum ents f th e or
             on
resum p ti ofm i       litary c       ts              e
                                ontac ,th eenh anc m ent ofv enues
 n       c i us on               if       e an
i w h i h ds c s i ofdferenc s c take p lac , andnew    e
             m            i      ng s
v enues ai edat ds p elli m i p erc p ti     e ons.
           ully                                 i c    i
    H op ef , as th e m onth s go on, as p ol ti al dalogue
 nc                    e i            l
i reas es andth e b nefts of s tab e relati    ons are s een to
       i                   c ons           s
outw e gh m utual s u s p i i , th en w i e m en and s ob r  e
th inkers on b         d      ll             h ng or
                oth s i es w i s tart s earc i f new and
      s c                    if     e         oncud
reali ti w ay s to m anagedferenc s ,andc l eth at b        oth
                  F    e      th         ll
th e U.S. A rm ed orc s and ePL A w i h av e a c           ti
                                                   onstruc v e
role to p lay .

E N D NOTE S - C H A PTE R 2
           el d                             d s           d            n
   1. C anc l e altogeth er w ere th e Pres i ent’ p lanne s topov ers i
                    or        v ng n
Toky o andSeoul p ri to arri i i Sh angh ai     .

    .             i h                  ,
   2 Tang H ongw e , Z ongguo Xi e Sh e F ore gn B road as t
                                nw n         i         c
       on rv c h reaf r F B I ,Oc e 19 ,2
Inf ati Se i e ( e
  orm                  te    S) tob r    001.

       .           na
     3 “U.S., C h i StandA gai             s                y       d
                                nst Terrori m : Rem arks b Pres i ent
                 d nt a     em n n             l i
Bush andPres i e Ji ng Z i i Pres s A v aiablity ,W es tern Sub      urb
     s           Sh     i
G ue t H ous e ( angh a , PRC )” Oc e 19 , 2
                               ,     tob r      001, w w w .w h i e ous e
                                                                 th      .
               l ase h    ter,W h i H ous e)
gov / ne s / re e s ( ereaf
         w                         te        .

            te
    4 . W h i H ous e.

           s s    onc rn              e om               i
    5 . Th i i a c e th at h as b c e som ew h at h e gh teneds i e nc
   b
F e ruary 2                 i ng s        ts    w        t
             000 w h en Be ji i s u edi “Tai an W h i e Paper” th at
    c        th     rd f nc
arti ulated e “th i i.” Si eth at ti e a c m on ques t on d b
                                       m     om           i   e atedi n
W ash i       s       i i ls s         th     i ng          m        or
        ngton’ analy t c c rc e i w h e er B e ji h as a “ti etable” f
      fc on.
reuni i ati




                                   58
                   e l nt    e            ti          iis       i ng
    6 . F or an exc l e rev i w ofth e ac ons andpol c e ofB e ji th at
   l ont nue to gi e p aus e to U.S. G ov ernm ent ofi i ,s ee B ates G il
w ilc i             v                                fc als              l,
“Pow ell In C h i          es          s      ll
                  na: M od t Progre s W i B e better Th an N one ”       ,
Int rnati
   e       onal H e       b ,
                   raldTri une July 2 2 7, 001.

                      etai
    7. F or a v ery d led a c                      s
                                c ount and analy s i of th e p os t-K os ov o
debate in C h i               d
                na, s ee D av i M . F i
                                      nkels t i C h i
                                             e n,           c      d rs
                                                     na Re ons i e Its
N at onal Se uri y : Th e “G reat Pe e & D e e op m e D e ate” of 19 9 9 ,
    i        c t                    ac       v l     nt b
         ri                          on,                            cm e
A lexand aV A : Th eC NA C orporati C ountry A s s es s m ent,D e e b r
2000.

                on       t on                 v     c
     8. Th e c s truc i of th e narrati e ac ount of th e d           ebate th at
f                     b ue              gh y     lc
 ollow s w as p os s i le d to th e h i l p ubi nature ofth e d       ebate. Th e
    nes                    nv        le
C h i ep res s w as an i aluab s ourc f f                ng        e ate
                                             e or ollow i th edb . M os t of
               nes                   ev          e         er om
th e key C h i e new s p ap ers d oteds p ac to read c m ents on th e
             ons
key ques ti und c                       ter      om i
                      er ontention af th eb b ng ofth e PRC E m b s y .      as
                            s b rat on
E xam p les are th ePL A ’ L i e i A rm y D ai y ( eangjun B ao) C h i
                                                    l Ji f                ,     na
Youth D ai ( h ongguo Qi
             ly Z                             ,
                                ngni B ao) B righ tne s D ai y ( uangm i
                                      an                 s       l G            ng
   b ,                                          b .
Ri ao) and Pe l ’ D ai y ( nm i Ri ao) B y m os t ac ounts , th e
                    op es       l Re       n                         c
     odc
p eri i al th at ran th e c   olum n m os t readandm os t c          b
                                                               ontri utedto b    y
gov e                i s and os t c
       rnm ent s p ecali ts (      m                 n
                                         ontentious i th at analy s ts took eac  h
       r
oth e on) w as th e G lob Ti e ( uanqi Sh i ao) a sub i i
                               al m s H             u      b ,            s dary
new s p ap er of Pe e s D ai . Th e c
                      opl ’      ly                  n         on
                                            olum n i ques ti w as enti        tled
       na’                                      cs      “Z
“C h i s C oun term eas u res and C h oi e ” ( h ongguo D uice Yu
         e”)                 ul            as r       n
Xuanz . I am gratef to D r. A l tai Iai Joh n s ton of H arv ard
     v     ty or ngi
Uni ers i f bri ng th i c                                        s c ount ofth e
                                s olum n to m y attention. Th i a c
d                    nf          y
  ebate w as als o i orm edb a goodnum b r ofi   e             e
                                                        nterv i w s as w ell.

                              m                c s ty n         na or
     9 . F or a s uperb p ri er on th e ne e s i i C h i f h av i           ng
          cl
th eoreti a as s es s m ents ofth einternati          c ty
                                              onal s e uri env i ronm ent and
     r         on nc              e        ao,
th ei ev oluti si e 19 4 9 ,s e Ren Xi “Th e Internati          onal Relations
Th e       c     s ours ei C h i A Pre i i
     oreti al D i c        n     na:                          s ” gur C enter
                                           l m nary A naly s i , Si
     a                 e
A s i Pap ers N um b r 9 ,W as h i                l ott h
                                   ngton,D C : E li Sc ool ofInternati    onal
   f rs
A fai ,Th e G eorge W as h i             v      ty 000.
                                ngton Uni ers i ,2

                  ted       frm d ts     i y : 1)    nd
      10. Th e Uni States af i e i p ol c of ( No i epend ef enc or
     w       2               n            w
Tai an, ( ) N o “One C h i a, One Tai an” f                   3
                                                orm ula, an d ( ) No
        e     p or    w
m em b rs h i f Tai an i i n nternati           z ons th at requi
                                     onal organi ati               re
                        s te or      e
s tateh oodas a p rerequi i f m em b rs h i p.

                       v         c            p   th      a” A  l
     11. “C oop erati e Strategi Partners h i w i Rus s i ( p ri 19 9 6 );
                  v         rati             p     th      e M
“C om p reh en s i e C oop e v e Partners h i ” w i F ranc ( ay 19 9 7) ;
            tv             c          p” th               Oc e
“C ons truc i e Strategi Partners h i w i th e U.S. ( tob r 19 9 7)     ;
        - i                        p                         th
“G ood n e gh borly Partn ers h i of M utual Trus t” w i A SE A N
 D cm e              ;                      le         ti
( e e b r 19 9 7) “L ong-term and Stab C ons truc v e Partners h i     p”



                                      59
   th               an     on A
w i th e E urop e Uni ( p ri 19 9 8) “E n h anc d C om p re en s i e
                                    l    ;          e      h      v
            p     t             tai Oc e
Partners h i ” w i h G reat B ri n ( tob r 19 9 8).

      .
    12 In June 2             Sh         v               orm d nto th e
                   001 th e “ angh ai Fi e” w as tran s f e i
                  rati          z on”     a xth          e
“Sh angh aiC oop e on Organi ati and s i m em b r,Uz eki tan,b s
        d .
w as ad ed

      .             le   t
    13 A s rem arkab as i m ay seem f                     ci ,
                                      rom a U.S. p ers p e t v e th erew as
         eal    i us on n           nes           c i les
a goodd ofdsc s i i s om e C h i e analy ti crc as to w h eth e           r
        ted      s
th e Uni State w oul i              n      h
                       d nterv ene i C h ec ny a.

                  s    e l nt         ,     na
      14 . In h i exc l e v olum e C h i D e at s th e Future Se uri y
                                                  b e                    c t
Envi   ronm e , W as h i
                nt        ngton, D C : N ati         f          v rs ty
                                            onal D e en s e Uni e i Pres s ,
2             c
  000, M i h ael Pills b    ury argues th at p rev i            nes
                                                      ous C h i e p olitical
c           nts
 onstrai p reclud da    e naly s ts from as s erti th at th e “c p re en s i e
                                                 ng             om     h     v
nati                            ted                o
      onal pow er” ofth e Uni States w ouldd any th i b ev eng ut             l
                                                                        ntual y
  e l ne. W h ile th at m ay h av e been th e c e p ri to 19 9 9 , th e
d ci                                                as       or
p os t- K os ov o d      n     na l arly rem ov e alltaboos al
                   ebatei C h i c e              d                     s i
                                                                ong th i l ne.

                         d y
    15 . E m p h as es ad edb auth or.

                                 n
     16 . C h i H aotian , “Taki g Th e Road of N ati     onal D ef s een
     erni ati         c      orm        na’
M od z on W h i h C onf s to C h i s N ati                       iti
                                                  onal C ond ons and
Ref                         s s            m                   ers
    lects th e C h aracteri tic of th e Ti es — -M y Un d tandng        i
   qui d                  y
A c re From th e Stud ofC om rad Ji          e n’
                                    e ang Z m i s E xpos i i   t ons on th e
       ons p                 li
Relati h i B etw een B uidng th e Nati             f nse and E c
                                          onal D e e                 onom ic
             nt, ush ,                   l                        s   d .
D ev elop m e ” Qi i No. 8,F B IS,A p ri 16 ,19 9 6 . E m p h as i ad ed

     17. Ofi                   r,           nt        cm e              eh y
             nteres t,h ow ev e w as a rep ri ofaD e e b r 19 86 s p e c b
 orm
f er D e e            ni r
           f nse M i s te G ene Z ang A i i i w h i h th e v e
                                   ral h        p ng n       c        nerate d
                 dh         v                nte
general w arne t at, e en th ough th e i rnati                c ty tuati
                                                      onal s e uri si      on
  i                                     on      ed           n gi
ddnot p ortendw orldw ar,th enati need to rem ai v i lant,m ov e
 orw          th e e             erni ati
f ard w i d f ns e m od z on, and rec                       z
                                                       ogni e th e potential
                  na’     c ty                 c, h         eh      v n
th reats to C h i s s e uri . In retros p e t t e s p e c , gi e to an
         e
expanddm eeting ofth e C entral M ii                     s on n         an e
                                         l tary C om m i s i i 19 86 ,c b
   e             ng av             ng’                        na’ c ty
v i w edas h av i c eatedD e s reas s es s m ent ofC h i s s e uri as
          d n
es p ous e i June 19 85 . It w as rep ri         n
                                           nted i th e journal Z anlue Yu
                                                                   h
G uanl (                                      ls       y
        i Strat gy andM anage e ,pub i h edb th e C h i e Soc e
                e                 m nt)                          nes      i ty
 or        gy
f Strate and M anagem e                  th              s on
                                  nt, w i th e p erm i s i of th e reti d re
           h              h
G eneral Z ang. See Z ang A i i   p ng, “Nati onal D ef ense D ev elopm ent in
      ei , h
Peac t m e ” Z anlueYu G uanl ,F B IS,Augus t 1,19 9 9 .
                                    i

                                  ti               on          n
     18 F u Quany ou, “M ake A c v e E xp lorati s , D eep e Ref     orm ,
   v    e litary W ork i an A ll-RoundW ay , Qi i No. 6 , F B IS,
A d anc M i               n                        ” ush ,
      h                       e               s                  orm
M arc 19 9 8. F or an ov erv i w of th e PL A ’ p rogram s of ref , s e  e
Fi         n,
  nkels tei C h i s N ati
                 na’      onal M ilitary Strat gy .
                                                e


                                     60
     19 . F or exam p le, s ee Joh n Pom f              ne
                                             ret, “C h i s e M iil tary Us es
      v               s             ,
A n ni ers ary to Poli h Its Im age ”Th eW as h i           , t e ,
                                                 ngton Pos t Oc ob r 2 19 9 9 .
   c i               ret, I        h 19
A c ordng to Pom f “ n M arc ( 9 9 )and              n
                                                 agai ov er th es um m er,th e
        s    d            ev      i on      d       n dti         undng
arm y i s ai to h av erec i edblli s of ollars i ad i onalf i . . .”
       ret’                                       i
Pom f s u s e of th e term “billion s ” is l kely an ov ers tatem ent.
K now led                  rs o                               i     nf on n
           geableobs erv e d agreeth at th ere w as a one-t m ei us i i
             r              th    t
th es um m e of19 9 9 and at i w as a out 1.2b li U.S. d
                                          b         il on              USD )
                                                                ollars (      .
    s i        s p                i nc rom th e lum p-sum p ay m ent th e
Th i fgure i s e arate andds ti t f
         ci      n    cm e                                er    i
PL A re e v edi D e e b r 19 9 8 as a result ofth e ord to dv es tits elfof
 ts om       rc al     d ngs                               c i
i c m e i h ol i . Th e latter p ay m ent, ac ordng to D av i                d
                                      lli             e      d
Sh am baugh , w as about 4 00 m i on USD . Se D av i Sh am baugh ,
                                                v     t        lf a
Re orm i C h i s M ii ary , B erkeley : Uni ers i y ofC a i orni Pres s ,
   f      ng     na’      lt
f       om ng.
 orth c i

        0.               i    fc       i             nes          uri
      2 C learly a s centi i s am pl ng ofth e C h i e p res s d ng th i    s
      od                   e y
p eri w as not m ad b th i s tud   s       ent, and I am open to c    ounter
                        s               ne      s uri              l
argum ents on th e i s u e ofth e C h i s e p re s d ng th e A p ri th rough
M ay 2             od           ng      om       a       etaie       y
         001 p eri . B ut h av i jus t c p leted v ery d l ds tud ofth e
p os t- K os ov o d         ully exp e tedth e E P-3 i i ent to reop en th e
                   ebate, I f         c               ncd
      re s           i
enti i s ue. It ddnot oc ur.  c

      1.
     2 Th ere w ere a f i              ng, ut        xc pti
                         ew nteresti b rare e e ons . A t least one
           e to                    e      d             e ate       t i
p aper tri d reop en th e “p eac and ev elop m ent d b .” B ut i ddso
      y rii i i                           nt, ut y rii i i
notb c t c zng th ePRC G ov ernm e b b c t c zng th os eC h i          nese
                    ll h ri         l us on
analy s ts w h o s ti “c e s h edi l i s ” ab   out th e UnitedStates . See
        s ng
“C h eri h i Illusi  ons A bout C h i           l ons W i l B ri H arm To
                                     na-U.S. Re ati       l     ng
                                       ”
B oth th e C ountry andth e Peop le, C om m e             c n
                                                ntary arti le i G uangz ou
                                                                        h
Ri ao,F B IS,M ay 16 ,2
   b                       001.

     2       e s us on         na-U.S. Relations , i C ont m p orary
    2 . “F re D i c s i on C h i                  ” n      e
                           i ng: C h i In s titute of C ontem p orary
Int rnational Re ons , B e ji
   e             lati                 na
International Relations,June2 001,p p . 7-30.

     3                                     onf nc           n
    2 . F B IS h as p os teds om e ofth e c ere e p ap ers i translation.

      4        c            19
     2 . W ere allK orea ( 5 0) th eF renc -Ind h i W ar ( arly 19 5 0s )
                                  ,           h    oc na       e           ,
th e Si      ndan           19 )                  oc na
        no-I i W ar ( 6 2 , th e U.S.-Ind h i W ar ( 6 0s ) th e19     ,
                                                  es
n o rth ern clas h es w ith th e Sov iets ( p ecially 19 6 9 ) th e   ,
Si       e                 19    ,     ne onc rn b
   no-V i tnam es e W ar ( 79 ) C h i s e c e s a out C am b i and oda,    ,
 n
i a “b  ack to th e f            e”      nes onc rns about th e Sov iets i
                     uture m od , C h i e c e                             n
   gh     s
A f ani tan (               ,             i        ng     nes onc rn
               late19 70s) not to m ent on ongoi C h i ec e about
Ind o-Paki         l                      r.    l          nes i
            stanicas h es ov er K as h m i W h ieth e C h i el kely h oldno
  ri f or             b                    uti
b e f th e Tali an, th e p ros ec on of a m ajor c p ai        am     gn in
   gh     s           c all             d y         ted
A f ani tan— es p e i y one w age b th e Uni State — i not gois s        ng
     e            ng
to b a reas s uri ev ent f               nes     nt      e
                              rom a C h i e p oi ofv i w .



                                     61
     5      s s                  nes                    c     n
    2 . Th i i n ot jus t a C h i e p h enom enon. It oc urs i th e United
States as w ell.

       6       s s             s               ted       s           ore gn
     2 . Th i i n ot to s ugge t th at th e Uni States i th e “sole” f i
f         n     i ng’ om s c f                  a.
 actor i Be ji s d e ti re orm agend C h i h as h ed na         gedagai nst
             b l ty              d     od          on th
th e p os s i ii ofa p rolonge p eri oftensi w i th e Uni State .ted      s
     r              ew         t                   i  f
Ov e th e pas t f y ears ,i h as w orkedto dv ers iy ands trength en i s  t
 ore gn e ros               ev       d     d          c s e aus t
f i ti s ac s th e d elop e w orl ,ones us p e t ,b c ei reali e        zs
th e“d        r”         ng       ts       n                      t om
        ange ofh av i all ofi eggs i th e U.S. bas ket w h en i c es to
 ore gn nv            nt,    e, h
f i i es tm e trad tec nology ac s i on,etc   qui ti       .

       7.            n ep           y          ne      e
     2 F or an i d th s tud of C h i s e v i w s of th e m i i       l tary
       ons p        e       d
relati h i , s e D av i M . F i               n          ng
                                    nkels tei , “E ngagi D oD : C h i nese
         c v
Pers p e ti es on M iil tary Relati       th         ted       s
                                   ons w i th eUni State ,A lexand a    ri ,
                           i                          t e
V A : Th e C N A C orp orat on,C RM 9 9 -004 6 .9 0,Oc ob r 19 9 9 .




                                    62
                        C H A PTE R 3



               A V IE W F ROM TOK YO:
              S
     C H IN A ’ G ROW ING M IL ITARY POW E R
                                              S
     A N D ITS SIG NIF IC A NC E F OR JA PA N ’
                N A TIONA L SE C URITY

                        d
                     H i eaki K aneda



         S
C H IN A ’ A M B ITION

     na’     tm      v
C h i s M ari i e A d ance.

           na
      C h i h as p ursueda nati                     ons s
                                 onal s trategy ofc i tent and
   ti         v     e                   p
ac v e ad anc m ent tow ard p eri h eral w aters . C h i s    na’
   ti ty                          i n
ac v i p atterns, as th ey dd i th e 19 70s to th e South
      na              n                             na
C h i Sea andi th e 19 80s to th e E as t C h i Sea, h av e
  en          v     e     h          ng orc ,
b e to ad anc to s uc areas us i f e w h iei                ng
                                                   l gnori th e
                 gh             s i ti      gh
s ov ereign ri ts and juri dc on ri ts of ne gh b ng    i ori
       on       ndng
nati s . F i i little or w eak res i tanc f  s     e rom th es e
c          e      na                         e
  ountri s ,C h i s trength enedp res enc th ere by c         ng
                                                         reati a
 ai c           i      m           i              ti al ontrol of
f t ac om p l , ulti ately leadng to th e p rac c c
                         s         je ti          na’
th es e areas . W h at i th e ob c v e of C h i s m ari m e  ti
    v      e                 s                 es gni
ad anc ? Th e answ er i th e key to d i ng Jap an’               s
d                           nst
  eterrent s trategy agai C h i     na.
        rs s
     F i t i th e ec       c     c nv v .         na m
                    onom i as p e t i ol ed C h i ai s to
  ev          utii e i      c
d elop and l z b ologi al and            i ogi al        e n
                                    nonb ol c res ourc s i
 ts       p                s c ally s eab d oi res ourc s . In
i p eri h eral w aters , e p e i          e    l       e
    dti          na’ ood and energy s u p p ly s i
ad i on, C h i s f                                      on s
                                                   tuati i
      d eteri
rap i ly d           ng               ts          l c
                orati as a res ult ofi rem arkab ee onom i   c
             nc         ap     on         i i s or c
grow th s i e th e ad tati of p ol c e f e onom i            c
          on               ng       na’
rev oluti andth e op eni ofC h i s m arket to th e w orl ,  d
 om i         th ts ras c            on
c b nedw i i d ti p op ulati grow th . In p arti ular, c
     na’
C h i s energy s i        on s
                     tuati i s o s ev ere th at th e w orlds ’

                               63
                     l     uc ng     on an  ly
s ev enth larges t oi p rod i nati c h ard keep up
   th           ng em       ,    tod     na  l uc r
w i th egrow i d and and ay C h i th eoi p rod e
       e om        l m
h as b c e an oi-i p orti c ng onsum er.
    F or furth er ec      c ev               na
                    onom i d elop m ent,C h i m us tc ontinue
      c
to s e ure f                         is        ore t e om
              oodandenergy s up p l e . Th eref , i b c es
              m          or    na        ure i ng
extrem ely i p ortant f C h i to p roc fs h i ground i     s n
          p                      jac nt            qui
th e p eri h eral w aters andad e s eas , to ac re good
       ty       e    l         e            c
quali s eab d oi res ourc s , and to s e ure s ea li   nes of
 om         c on SL           or l m
c m uni ati ( OC s ) f oi i p orts f                     d le
                                              rom th e M i d
                 enc               s       c onsequenc f
E as t. D ep end e on th e s eas i a logi al c           e or
     na n       er
C h i i ord to m ai          n onti
                         ntai c             c      c
                                     nuous e onom i grow th .
        c      s       s
     Se ondi th ei s ue ofnati                    c ty            na,
                                       onal s e uri . In C h i nav al
        r orc s
andai f e h av e b e b      e n uilt andop eratedas s up p orti          ng
 orc s           s
f e to as s i t th e arm y . H ow ev er, th ey learnedf             rom th e
   s     c            e e               ng
h i tori al exp eri nc ofth e Qi D y nas ty w h en,b c e of       e aus
     na’       k                                m
C h i s lac ofaw arenes s of th e i p ortanc ofs eap ow er  e
              ti
an d m ari m e ri ts , f gh        oreign p ow ers us urp ed th eir
s ov ereign an d territorial righ ts . B as ed on th es e
        e e           na        op
exp eri nc s , C h i ad ted a c e m ii        l ar     l tary s trategy of
                  ef      , th
“near w ater d ense ”w i th es o-c                    “F rs
                                               alled i t Is land h ai C    n
D ef          ne” e ng          na’
     enseL i b i C h i s s ead enseli ,c     ef                   c ng
                                                       ne onne ti th e
        an          s         l s        s
A leuti Is land ,K uri I land ,Jap anes e Is land ,Ry uky u     s
         s       w            l p ne               s
Is land , Tai an, Ph i i p i Is land , and B orneo. Th e
                     s lai            y
Senkaku Is land , c m ed b Jap an, andth e Sp ratl and                 y
        e s         s                c
Parac l I land , ov er w h i h s ev eral South -E as t A s i             an
c          e l m           tori       gh            nc ud n
  ountri s c ai terri al ri ts ,are i l edi th i F i t               s rs
         C     n
Is land h ai D ef                ne.      w                 l m
                      enseL i Tai an als o h as c ai s on s om e
             s      s         s             c
of th es e i land , an i s ue w h i h C h i c                       om
                                                     na alls a d es ti     c
                            s       na’                    ef
m atter. In oth er w ord ,C h i s near w ater d enses trategy
 nc ud
i l es m ii              orc ep
               l tary f e d loy m ents to attac Tai an and  k     w
                              ks
p rev ent counterattac . One m us t not f                 orget th at th e
m ii         orc s                 ap l            ros ng
    l tary f e th at are c ab e of c s i th e w ater to
       k     w           p
attac Tai an and rev enti c                               ks an e nly
                                     ng ounterattac c c rtai
  e
b us ed         nst
           agai th eSenkaku,Sp ratl ,and        y             e s
                                                        Parac lI land .  s
      th                             na’       ati
   W i th e endofth e C oldW ar,C h i s negoti ons on
nati      ord s
    onal b er i s ues and m i i          th raw
                               l tary w i d al f   rom
 ord     th      a       orm       e
b ers w i Rus s i andf er Sov i t Uni c            e n
                                          on ountri s i


                                   64
              a                   s              th
C entral A s i h av ep rogres s ed m ooth ly and eop p ortuni ty
 or        ati       th    i            ord s
f negoti on w i Inda to s olv eb er i s ues h as ari en.    s
     na an eel c           or
C h i c f s e ure f th e m om ent regardng i land    i  ts
  ord                      w           an      uc ts
b ers to th enorth and es t andc red ei arm y f e          orc s
  ras c                           ng
d ti ally , th ereby generati enough res erv es to s h i t    f
    i nteres ts andreds tri ute res ourc s to f us on th e r
th e r i                  i b                 e     oc        i
                         e
eas t ands outh ern “oc ans .”
         rd s         f        na’
    Th i i th e s h i t ofC h i s m ii l tary s trategy . B y 19 85 ,
             s b         on        PL                y
th e Peop le’ L i erati A rm y ( A )h adalread attem p ted
              c      f rom a “glob w ar” to a “loc w ar”
th e s trategi s h i t f              al                   al
   e       on,      af           of           W
ori ntati and ter th eend th eC old ar,s h i ted rom a f f
                      al                  al
m ere “general loc w ar” to a “loc w ar und h i h       er -tec
 ondti         as
c i ons” b edon w h at th ey learnedf         rom th e G ulfW ar.
              h            c f                      c
Th rough s uc s trategi s h i ts ,th en G eneralSe retary Ji    ang
  em n                          z           ef
Z i s tarted to em p h as i e th e “d en s e of m ari m e      ti
i                       th       ef                  gn gh
 nteres ts ” along w i th e d ens e of s ov erei ri ts of
     tori         s    r     e
terri al land ,ai s p ac ,ands eas .
            tob r 000, C h i h ad c uc
    B y Oc e 2                 na         ond ted large-s c   ale
      i                      h          ti ti s      em
exerc s es of “all arm y exc ange ac v i e to d onstrate
                  i  fc h            c      ni     nc
th eres ult ofs centi i -tec nologi al trai ng” i orp orati    ng
                         ks                ef
th e “new th ree attac and th ree d enses ” (               ks y
                                                      attac b
           rc t, alli c s les
s tealth ai raf b s ti m i s i , andarm edh eli op ters , c
       ef        y    i on
andd ense b p rec s i w eap ons, e e t           c nterf
                                         l c roni i             e
                                                          erenc ,
andrec         s     e              e,     c nv
         onnai s anc surv eillanc ) w h i h i olv edlearni     ng
f rom                                d
         th e K os ov o air- rai s as w ell as f             rom
    i    fc h          c
“s centi i -tec nologi al m ii            ni                m ,t
                               l tary trai ng.” A t th at ti e i
            th             i                k” e
w as noted at th eexerc s es w ere “attac ori nted i th ew th
   e                   n                           on
oc an s as th e m ai s tage, rath er th an c v enti al       on
   ef          e
“d ense” ori ntedm aneuv ers .
             s
    F ourth i an i       on    m           na’      ti n
                   ntenti to i p rov eC h i s p os i on i th e
                                            s
in tern ation al com m u n ity . C h in a’ v iew tow ard
internati              on    p   s
           onal relati s h i s i to b  reak aw ay f   rom th e
si tuati on of “on e s u p erp ow er an d s ev eral p ow ers ”
  om nated b th e Uni
d i            y           ted States and to w ork tow ard
       -p      z on, th          na ts        ng
“m ulti olari ati ” w i C h i i elfs h ari th e p os i on  ti
                      ul           ers     na c       z
ofone ofth e p ow erf p ole lead . C h i re ogni es th at
            l tuati ofth e i
th e uns tab e s i    on         nternati      om       ty
                                         onal c m uni w i l   l


                                65
        s             e aus
p ers i t longer b c e of ten s i              e
                                        ons b tw een th e m ajor
c          e      na’         onfi ts n c ng ts
  ountri s , C h i s ow n c l c i se uri i s p h ere of
i                    nc         nc d
 nteres ts , and i reas ed i i ents of regi                    onfi ts
                                                      onal c l c .
                 na                     h
H ow ev er,C h i as s um es th at s uc a s i         on s
                                              tuati i m erely th e
          ti                    ls
transi on tow ardth e es tab i h m ent ofa new i        nternati   onal
      er,         l v
ord and w i l e entually lead to th e c              ollap s e of U.S.
    n
s i gle- c             om n
             ountry d i an ce an d th e em ergen ce of a
         -p                th
m ulti olar w orld w i C h i       na, th e Uni     ted States , th e
                  on,        a,
E urop ean Uni Rus s i andJap an as th e p oles . A t any
   m     n s
ti ei h i tory ,th eC h i  na-U.S. relati         p            a x
                                            onsh i h as h ad m i of
       ii y
s tab l t and i          i i y ac           ut n
                   nstab l t f tors , b i p urely m ii           l tary
                       as c
term s , th ey are b i ally i a cn        ontenti               ons p
                                                 ous relati h i .
                   s
F rom C h in a’ p oin t of v iew , th e p ath tow ard
        -p     z on                                 nt
m ulti olari ati m us t go th rough th e p oi ofri alry and  v
c            on th         c
  ontenti w i A m eri an m ii      l tary p ow er.
                    ogi n       na               s
    Th e tone ofl ci C h i th at s tand out th es e d s i      ay s
th at th e p ow er th at c               e s
                          ontrols th e oc an i th e one th at earns
        gh            v         ev
th e ri t ofsurv i al andd elop m ent. M oreov er, th ere i         s
      h    d e             m           e     om
m uc ev i enc ofth ei p ortanc ofc p reh ensi e m ari     v       ne
                           1s                ll
p ow er andth at th e 2 t C entury w i be th e “C entury of
    e                   h
Oc ans .” Th e s earc to grow f       rom “near w ater” to “op en
   e
oc an” op erati         s         y      erw       n
                  ons i alread und ay i th e PL A . In a
si       on     nc         onfd e n
  tuati ofi reas edc i enc i th eec                          l m ted
                                                 onom y andi i
                  n       ii
elem en ts of i s tab l ty i natin                     ty
                                         onal s ecuri , C h i s  na’
     m           i on                 e           ng
ulti ate am b ti ap p ears to b p rep ari to s tep b y ond     e
            c                                    ef
th e bas i s trategy of n ear w ater d en s e to s ecure
  om nati ov er th e Pac fcOc an,w h i h i ad e to i
d i         on                ii     e          c s     jac nt     ts
      p
p eri h eral w aters .
            s
     Jap an’ “D ef              te
                    ense W h i Pap er” of 2        001 rep orted th e
    e        ki     ui d            na’
rec nt s tri ng b l -up ofC h i s m i                         nes n
                                             litary p rep ared s i
           ty
th equali and             ty      oth ts
                   quanti ofb i nav y and r f e W h atai orc .
 s      i      m       je ti                   n
i th e r ulti ate ob c v e? To s p eak i extrem es , i i not  s t
        be        orth a h y p oth es i th at C h i us es th eexc e
p os s i l to put f                    s           na             us
      ap     ng      w            d        na’
of c turi Tai an to h i e C h i s true and ulti ate             m
   je ti         nni                   ns
ob c v e ofw i ng a w ar agai t th e Uni States ? W eted             ,
                                           e      n
th e Jap an es e p eop le, m us t as c rtai C h i a’ f  n s uture
intenti  ons.


                                 66
     na
C h i Takes a Seri  ous Step tow ard“M ulti-
       z                             h
Polari ation”— E s tablis h m ent oft e “Sh angh ai
          i          z on.”
C oop erat on Organi ati

     On June14 and15 ,2                               v
                             001,th e “Sh angh aiF i e” c  ountri se
ofC h i            a,      akh                s
        na, Rus s i K az s tan, K y rgi tan, andTaji s tan,  ki
    th                   d          b ki
w i th e n ew ly - ad ed Uz e s tan , es tablis h ed th e
                         on
“Sh angh ai C oop erati Organi ati    z on.” A “Sh angh ai F i e”v
         t       en              y nc               gi
sum m i h as b e h eldy earl s i e 19 9 6 ,ori nally f th e   or
                     ng ord            ons
p urp os eofres olv i b er tensi betw een C h i and e    na      th
              an ountri s th at h adnew l ari en af th e
C entral A s i c           e                    y    s      ter
c                         e
  ollap s e of th e Sov i t Uni            th     na
                                  on, w i C h i leadng th e i
  i us on. Si
ds c s i                           c
                  nce th ey s u c es s f ully agreed up on th e
     uc on
red ti ofm i               orc s ep               ord
                   litary f e d loy edto b er areas , th e
 oc              f                oop
f us h as s h i ted tow ard c erati i th e c  on n        ontrol of
        c         s         c         en                  lm
Is lam i extrem i ts ,w h i h h as b e th em ajor p rob e ofth e
              an ountri s . M oreov er,i rec nt y ears ,C h i
C entral A s i c           e                 n    e               na
                               v orum as a m eans to c e k th e
h as us edth e Sh angh aiF i e f                           h c
Uni                       em                n ts
     ted States , as d ons trated i i ap p eal f ti s        or e
  e               a
b tw een Rus s i and C h i            s c ally on i
                                na, e p e i            nternati onal
   c ty           i                s
s e uri and ds arm am ent i s ues , and agai         nst th e U.S.
           i c ontrol of glob p ol ti al, e onom i , and
m onop ol s ti c                     al     i c     c        c
m ii         f rs
    l tary afai .
             gni i anc       s        z on or
     Th e s i fc eofth i organi ati f C h i i ,on th ena s
       ac ,
s urf e m ulti     -national regi          oop
                                  onal c erati to c on      ontrol
          i                  s              ty t s
exp andng Is lam extrem i ts . In reali , i i a w ay to d       eal
    th                  nji              s        c s i
w i th eth reat ofXi ang s ep arati m ,w h i h i l keasnake
 n       na’ os                 ii y       nji      e ng
i C h i s b om , th e s tab l t ofXi ang b i es s enti           al
 or            z on          na’
f th e reali ati ofC h i s nati                    c
                                        onal p roje t ofth e G reat
                                i
W es t D ev elop m ent. Readng ev en d er i   eep              na’
                                                      nto C h i s
intenti                        an i               bl t
         ons,h ow ev er,one c fndth e p os s i ii y ofC h i s  na’
  es re
d i to tran s f              s          z on nto an alli e
                     orm th i organi ati i                    anc
       nst
agai th e Uni                        ts          i
                    tedStates andi s et ofblateral alli e    anc s
    th
w i regi al c on                      c       ll
                      ountries , w h i h w i h av e a greater
   gni i anc or         na n
s i fc e f C h i i th e f          uture.
       gi            n                  m
   O ri nally , C h i a w as eager to i p rov e bilateral
      ons p     th     i onti
relati h i s w i th e r c             i ori
                             nental ne gh b ng c      e
                                                ountri s .
In June 2           na onc ud
          001, C h i c l ed th e Treaty of G ood and

                                67
    e l
F ri ndy Relati        p    th          a.
                 onsh i w i Rus s i Th ey als o c l ed  onc ud
bl                        th     h
  iateral agreem ents w i eac C entral A s i c    an ountry as
       rui                         v        e
th e f t of th e Sh angh ai F i e p roc s s . A m ong m ajor
conti            i   ori
       nental ne gh b ng c              e            i
                               ountri s , only Inda h as n ot
enteredi          iateral agreem ent w i C h i
           nto a b l                       th      na. H ow ev er,
     na s          ng    m           ts       ons p th
C h i i attem p ti to i p rov ei relati h i w i Inda,          i
        d e y                   ng
as ev i enc db th e re-op eni ofa Si                i    i
                                            no-Indan dalogue
             en            nc nda’            l ar
th at h ad b e h alted s i e I i s n uc e tes t i 19 9 8,n
      ab y n                         e                 h
p rob l i res p onse to th e rec nt U.S. ap p roac tow ard
Inda.i
                                   on
     Th e “Sh angh ai C oop erati Organi ati             s      i
                                               z on” i th e frs t
        l                z on e             er
m ulti ateral organi ati b gun und C h i s i ti v e.na’ ni ati
Som e m od             ei v      s       z on l ev
              erates b l e e th i organi ati w i l d elop i     nto
a m od                   i on of South eas t A s i
          erate A s s oc ati                                    on
                                                       an N ati s
 A          -ty
( SE A N) p e regi       onal forum . Oth ers c       d
                                                 onsi er th at th e
c urrent m em b r c            e         s          z on
                   e ountri s of th i organi ati ai to        m
                   p       s              d
“p rom ote m ulti olari m ofth e w orl ” andoth er c              e
                                                           ountri s
     h            s                i
s uc as Paki tan, M ongol a, and Iran w ill s eek th e
             ty      n             z on,       l
op p ortuni to joi th eorgani ati w h i eNorth K orea and
   e                 d
V i tnam are s ai to s h ow i                 n t.
                                    nteres t i i Th rough th i     s
         z on         ts
organi ati or i ad anc d f   v   e orm i th e f
                                            n              ,
                                                      uture C h ina
        by     ll                    ts nf        e
p os s i l w i attem p t to extendi i luenc ov er a v as t land
andw ater area extendng f    i    rom th e A s i      ii      on
                                                a-Pac fc regi to
                   a               d le
South w es t A s i and th e M i d E as t, w i c     th onti  nental
     na                      a        e
C h i andC entral A s i as th e c ntral f e    orc .
          dti         na s i
    In ad i on,C h i i l kely to us e th i f   s orum to c  ounter
     ev
p erc i ed U.S. c         nm
                   ontai ent agai       nst C h i            n
                                                 na, and i th e
f           onf              s ng     b         anc s e
 uture to c ront th e exi ti w e ofalli e c nteredon
th e Uni                  le dng                  al
         tedStates ,w h i h i i th e p otenti to d elop iev         t
 nto           z on m l                                t
i an organi ati s i i ar to th eW ars aw Pac at th e ti e        m
            d                                 na ll
of th e C ol W ar. F or th e m om ent C h i w i us e i as a t
p latf            m n
       orm to eli i ate U.S. i f     n luen ce by exp res s i g   n
                                      ef
op p os ition to th e m is s ile d en s e in itiativ e an d
internati onal and  regi                  y         ted
                         onal talks ledb th e Uni States ,as
                           na’       s        l m
w ell as to exp res s C h i s p ers i tent c ai th at Tai an, w
     c s      er
w h i h i und th e i l           e
                        nfuenc of th e Uni                     s
                                                tedStates , i an
i          l                nes
 nsep arab e p art of C h i e terri                  s       ,
                                       tory . In th i s ense h ow


                                68
     na ll     t                          ns              e
C h i w i reac to th eU.S. res p onse agai t th eSep tem b r
11,2             s       ks       e gni i ant.
      001,terrori t attac m ay b s i fc

     na m
C h i A i s to B ecom e a Regional Sup erp ow er—
          nes              i            v
Prep ared s on th e C ont nent andA d ancem ent
Tow ardth e Oceans.

            s           ng       na’ v       e
    W h at i th em eani ofC h i s ad anc m ent tow ard e    th
   e            m                ons p
oc ans, and i p rov ed relati h i s w i i c th ts onti   nental
   i ors          gi       es ri e        p n
ne gh b ? Ori nally d c b das “s h i s i th e South and
                     ”    na s
h ors es up N orth , C h i i a c                          ac s
                                   ountry th at h as tw o f e :
“C onti nental C h i            e c
                    na” and“Oc ani C h i na.”
             te     ng          om      c      lm        na
     D es p i h av i s om ed es ti p rob e s ,C h i s eem s to
       z          t         c ully c
reali e th at i h as s uc es s f         reatedan unp reced    ented
      l
s tab e s i       on n i            c
            tuati i dp lom ati and m ii         l tary relati      p
                                                             onsh i s
   th      i ori
w i ne gh b ng c                e                     na
                        ountri s . M oreov er, C h i h as grow n
f       e ng
 rom b i a regi               i c                e om ng
                     onal p ol ti al p ow er to b c i a regi     onal
superp ow er, b         n
                   oth i nam e andac            iy n           i i a,
                                           tual t , i all p ol t c l
m ii          c       c       nd        al      c         s
    l tary , e onom i ,andi us tri as p e ts ,andi about to
   c             ti
s e ure a p os i on as one ofth e w orlds up erp ow ers (    andth e
                n      a) ap                           n
s tron ges t i A s i , c able of th reaten i g th e U.S.
            y       h e       h        je t v
m onop ol . To ac i v es uc an ob c i e,C h i c                  f
                                                    na annot aford
      m t ts nteres ts to th e c
to li i i i                         onti  nent andm us t h av e th e
                ti    ap b l t
s trong m ari m e c a i i y ofan “Oc ani C h ie c      na.”
           e              nes             s         s     ti n
     In v i w ofth e C h i e C om m uni t Party ’ p os i on i a
one-p arty -ruledc             t s m        b or        na
                    ountry ,i i i p os s i le f C h i to allow
th e Uni                          n
           ted States to rem ai th e “one ultra-superp ow er”
 nd i tely                    na s              n
i efni . A tleas t,C h i w i h es to gai th ep ow er of“not
     ng, f           nni
los i ” i not w i ng ov er th e Uni                        n
                                             ted States i ev ery
     c
s p e trum . Th us , C h i            ng     th       i
                           na, s tarti w i s tab lity on th e
c onti             i      l              ri or
       nent,s teadly w i l p rom ote a d v e f th e attai entnm
     ts c           i on       ulfll
ofi s e ret am b ti to f i th e s up rem e p rop os i on of  ti
 c rontati i th e oc an” w i th e Uni States andi
“ onf          on n         e       th           ted              ts
allied c                   th n      n s
            ountries , w i i C h i a’ uni               m
                                                 que ti e s c   ale,
         les       i
regard s ofth e r targetedy ear.
    C ertain ly , C h in a n ev er m akes th e m is take of
       oni              b l ty     i t onf        on
m enti ng th e p os s i ii of drec c rontati at s ea
   th
w i U.S. m ii                         s       , or t
              l tary p ow er. Th ere i no need f i h as an

                                69
           ate      onv     e
ap p rop ri andc eni nt exc ec                       w
                                     us alledTai an. A t ev ery
            ty     na         s
op p ortuni , C h i s end out a s trong w arni to U.S.   ng
 orc s
f e agai i                  on n          on             w
             nst nterv enti i relati to th e Tai an i s ue.   s
                na                  t l
M oreov er,C h i s tres s es th at i w i lnot h es i        onf
                                                    tateto c ront
       orc s f         ng             n     w
U.S. f e i any th i h ap p ens i Tai an. H ow ev er,th i i      s s
not li          e      na’
       kely to b C h i s true i            on.
                                   ntenti Th ough I us edth e
                     s                  n s
w ord “h y p oth es i ” earlier, C h i a’ real i ten tin      on is
 onf          on e            w             th
c rontati b y ondTai an, not w i Jap an, K orea, th e
A SE A N c       e               i ut th                ted
           ountri s ,or A us tral a,b w i th eUni States .
          i                s                   s
     To fnd p roof of th i , one only need to look i      nto th e
                  nes
nature of C h i e m i i             orc s
                            l tary f e . If C h i            ous
                                                    na s eri ly
  on d           ng              w
c s i ers taki ov er Tai an at p res ent, w h at i th e      s
   gni i anc           m ted ap ii y
s i fc eofth e li i c ab l t ofth e C h i e nav y to nes
                       ros       e         oub l
tran s p ort troop s ac s oc ans? Und tedy , th ey h av e
                   p          th    e n ap b l t
troop s andequi m ent w i a c rtai c a i i y , s o C h i        na
    gh                   ks          w
m i t v enture attac on Tai an, s h ould th e p ol ti al     i c
    c s ty     s        n e          w    s ef
ne e s i ari e. Yeti v i w ofTai an’ d ensec ab l t ,iap ii y t
          e i fc     or      na
w ouldb df i ult f C h i to s end                     w    s
                                        troop s to Tai an’ m ai   n
 s      .
i landTh enatural i                 on s           na’ ap b l t
                        nterp retati i th at C h i s c a i i y
 s
i only sufi i        or          i ted        k, h
             fc ent f a v ery l m i attac s uc as balli ti     s c
    s le         ks       ns
m i s i attac agai t p art of th e m ai i lan d f   n s          or
 nti d on                              ks
i m i ati p urp os es ,or th e attac on Quem oy Is land        and
                 ,     c
M ats u Is land w h i h C h i c             om
                                na ould c p lete b f    e ore th e
     ted
Uni States c      ouldi  nterv ene.
                              , e ng           c nt i ti
     On th eoth er h and v i w i th ere e drec on ofnav al
         r orc           erni ati
andai f e m od z on ofth e C h i e arm edf e ,    nes            orc s
       an       l        c
onec eas i y noti e th at th es e eforts c f               e es ri ed
                                                  annot b d c b
 n                       ty                      ty
i term s of quali , let alone quanti , as th e rati                onal
  ev                        p
d elop m ent ofequi m ent ands y s tem s p urely to c ture      ap
     w          ef               i ori
Tai an or d endth e ne gh b ng s eas . W oul n’ ai raf    d t rc t
c      e
  arri rs , fleet balli ti m i s i e sub ari
                          s c s l            m    nes (  SSB N s ) w ith
            h       alli c s l s SL              ,
s ea-launc edb s ti m i s i e ( B M s ) and l ar attac  nuc e          k
     m
s ub ari   nes (                th     p        h d rui
                   SSN s ) w i s h i -launc e c s e m i s i e    s ls
 SL               er ev
( C M s )und d elop m ent by th e arm edf e b b t      orc s e e ter
sui       or onf              on th           orc s
    tedf c rontati w i U.S. f e ? A l o, w h at d       s            oes
      na’      e c v
C h i s oc ani ad anc m ent i      e                       ii
                                           nto th e Pac fc O c an, e
 nc udng               s
i l i Jap an’ exc us i e ec    l v             c one ( E Z, m ean?
                                        onom i z         E   )
     t t      c
Isn’ i logi al to i                                      na’ f
                       nterp ret th es e m ov es as C h i s eforts to

                                 70
       iy             onf           ted         y uidng
s teadl p rep are to c ront th e Uni States b b l i
           ti
up a m ari m e op erati       ap b l t              ng
                        onal c a i i y and as s um i th e
     ted             ts   e            al
Uni States andi alli s are p otenti enem i s ? e

Ch i                               m
    nes e W ay ofW ar— “B ey ondL i itedW ar”
(                           c   tc .
 Irregular andA s y m m etri Tac i s )

          an                 na’ uture p ros p e ts f th e drect
    W e c als o s ee C h i s f                    c or          i
  onf         on th              ted
c rontati w i th e Uni States i i c retem iin ts onc          l tary
                      ti s
s trategy and tac c . Th e b        ook, B e ond L i i e W ar—
                                            y         m td
      e                       t c or          m s
C onc p t ofW ar andTac i s f th e Ti e ofG lob z on       ali ati
w ri       n        y          r
    tten i 19 9 9 b tw o A i F orc c             n ci           c
                                     e olonels i a t v es erv i eof
              s raw ng              on n
th e PL A , i d i attenti i C h i and th e Uni na                ted
                    i ted
States . “B ey ondl m i w ar” m eans “a w ar th at transc nd   e s
an y lim i   tati                        th
                  on” or a “w ar w i out an y norm s an d
regulati                           s t
          ons.” In oth er w ord , i can b c                orb d en
                                              e alleda “f i d
                                om       ed           na m
s trategy .” Th eauth ors rec m end th at C h i i p lem ent
    h                      onf
suc a s trategy to c ront th e Uni          ted States . Th ey s ay
       ern       s     -tec
“m od w ar i a h i h w ar,and h i c                       n
                                        C na annot w i ov er th e
Uni                     c                      ng
     tedStates , w h i h h as ov erw h elm i p ow er, unles s i     t
  onf          th                      s e       -l m ted
c ronts w i th em th rough th i b y ond i i -w ar.”
     Th e b        c           s
            ook re om m end s eeki “i  ng rregular” w ar tac c     ti s
            e
th at go b y ondth e nati               tori s           s
                              on, terri e , m eth od , andw ar
sc         nc udng
   ales , i l i s o-c      alled “i              ti s
                                    llegal” tac c . Th e auth ors
                l m                           onf
th em s elv es c ai ,“F or th ew eaker to c ront th es tronger,
                 oes
th e w eaker d not need to f                                    y
                                      ollow th e rules s et b th e
s tronger.” A m ong th e i               ons d        on n
                              tem s of c i erati i B e ond       y
                                                     c
L i i e W ar, w e needto note “as y m m etri tac c .” U.S.
   m td                                                    ti s
m ii         orc s                       th
     l tary f e are troubled w i th e C h i e f e ’    nes      orc s
 nci       on                           c     ti s
i l nati to regardas y m m etri tac c as i p ortant. A m
f                              or          n     ndc
 orm er U.S. A m bas s ad to C h i a i i ated “C h i        ,       na
               op
regularly ad ts a uni                                      or ts
                           que s trategy to m ake up f i ow n
                       i         ts                 s onc p
w eaknes s andto ds p lay i s trength .” Th i c e t h as a
  om                    th
c m on th read w i th e Sep tem b r 11, 2   e         001, terrori t s
        ks
attac on A m eri a.  c
       s ook i s ai to h av e b e w ri
   Th i b     s   d            en             th
                                      tten w i out any
i       ti rom th e C h i e lead h i . Som e ob erv e
 nstruc on f             nes     ers p           s    ,



                                 71
h ow ev er, th at th e book h as w on s trong s u p p ort from
     nes     i c
C h i e p ol ti al andm ii           ers
                          l tary lead .
                      ,     na
    A s s tatedabov e C h i h as learnednum erous les s ons
f                  ale onfi ts nv        ng
 rom th e large-sc c l c i olv i th e Uni States i   ted         n
                                                          onfi ts
th e p os t-C oldW ar era: th e G ulfW ar andK os ov o c l c ,
           na          ed         th
andC h i h as p roc e edw i a great s trategi c ers ic onv      on
      m                 ef      v     om at ap b l t
to “i p rov em ent ofd ensi e c b c a i i y und th e        er
   gh      h ondti      ”      le        ng f
h i -tec c i ons, w h i exerti eforts to eli i             m nate
 unc onal s h ortcom i
f ti                                      dng
                         ngs and av oi i any s i f c     gni i ant
    h     ogi al
tec nol c andop erati                                  s      na s
                             onal gap . In oth er w ord ,C h i i
        ng f              d          ng      ei v
exerti eforts to av oi s h ow i any d c s i e w eaknes s of
 ts
i ow n,w h iec        s          e ng ons i
                l onsi tently b i c c ous ofth ep os s i ii ybl t
               nst        ted
ofw ar agai th e Uni States .
                      h
    H ow ev er, s u c a s trategy d                      d
                                         oes n ot p rov i e an y
             ty       n
op p ortuni to w i agai                         ng
                              nst ov erw h elm i U.S. m i    litary
p ow er. Th eref              n                ts
                    ore, C h i a p urs u es i ow n areas of
        ori                                                 ke
superi ty ov er U.S. w eaknes s es andw ill try to s tri th e
w eak s p ots of th e Uni                       h          e
                             ted States . Suc s trategi s are
 i               ti s                   c ti s         na’
“ rregular tac c ” and“as y m m etri tac c .” C h i s rec nt     e
           s     y e         or     c t            e ttle f
em p h as i on c b r w ars ,f w h i h i h as m ad li efort to
   d ts ntenti , i an exam p le. B y taki suc d
hiei i             ons s                            ng     h ual
       e        na
s tanc s , C h i s eem s to b l        ng or
                                e ooki f an op p ortuni to    ty
ensure f            c                   ted
          uture v i tory ov er th e Uni States .

         S
JA PA N ’ D E TE R R E N T STRA TE G Y A G A INST
C H IN A

     na’
C h i s Strategy against Jap an.

                              uid ts eterrent p ow er agai t
    N ow ,h ow m us t Jap an b l i d                       ns
Ch i        rs
     na? F i t, let th e Uni              nv
                              ted States i es ti          na’
                                                gate C h i s
s trategy agai               as                  s
               nst Jap an b ed on an analy s i of C h i sna’
    i c          l tary am b ti
p ol ti al andm ii                   i us     n
                             i ons ds c s edi th e p rev ious
   c on.
s e ti
            n
   In C h i a, th ere is a group th at p erceiv es th e
            na
Jap an-C h i relati      p
                   onsh i m erely as a p art of th e p ow er
b      e n
 alanc i th e A s i     ii
                   a-Pac fc regi             t s
                                on. A ls o, i w i h es to let
              n   c        c ant only . To h av e Jap an as a
Jap an rem ai an e onom i gi

                               72
    i c
p ol ti al superp ow er or m ilitary gi     s     ly c      l
                                       ant i h ard ac ep tab e
 or     na, ts                s s      e
f C h i as i greates tw i h i to b th eonly superp ow er i  n
Asi a.
         na’      m          je ti     s      e om
    C h i s ulti ate ob c v e i to b c e th e “uni              tary
               n            on.                    a, our
superp ow er” i th e regi In North eas t A s i f p ol ti al    i c
        ons s           a,     na,              th
p oles c i t ofRus s i C h i Jap an and eUni States .    ted
            e    on                               ng
Th e Sov i t Uni us edto be th e th reateni p ow er d ng      uri
         d         ut t ollap s ed and i s uc e s or, Rus s i
th e C ol W ar b i c                 ,       ts     cs             a,
m ai      ns ri nd
     ntai f e ly relati               th     na
                              ons w i C h i as th ey s h are th e
  as c i y           ng          -l ne      nst
b i p ol c oftaki a h ard i agai th eUni States .       ted
      e ng                 na        cp
C onc rni Jap an,C h i anti i ates Jap an’ c                 b on
                                                     s ontri uti
        na’ c         c
to C h i s e onom i grow th as a ec              c
                                          onom i andtec nolh     ogy
                       e
superp ow er, y et tri s to p rev ent Jap an f           e om ng
                                                  rom b c i a
    i c
p ol ti al andm i  litary s up erp ow er. F or th e Uni tedStates ,
Ch i       s i
     na i l kely to m ai           n      ri nd
                              ntai a f e ly “engagem ent”
       ons p
relati h i as long as th e Uni           ted States ap p rov es of
     na’ c          c ev                    c s
C h i s e onom i d elop m ent, w h i h i key f C h i s  or      na’
          on   ts
p rom oti ofi nati                        le ogni i p otenti
                        onal p ow er w h i rec       zng           al
  v     e n             i c       c       c
ri alri s i ev ery p ol ti al,e onom i ,andm i                   c
                                                    litary as p e t.
               na’      i on,        e om           y
    F or C h i s am b ti to b c e th e onl superp ow er i             n
           on,                      e ll                l
th eregi th egreates t barri r w i beth es tab eand trong       s
    anc e w
alli e b t een th e Uni                                     ’
                                                            s
                                 ted States , th e w orld uni      tary
                     Jap
superp ow er,and an,a s trong regi                              d ng
                                             onal p ole. C ons i eri
af            onf         on
    uture c rontati w i th e Uni th                           t l e
                                              tedStates , i w il b
p ref       l or      na          ni z                e
      erab e f C h i to m i m i e th e num b r ofp ow erf            ul
c         e       e    th
 ountri s alli dw i th e Uni                          na s i
                                     tedStates . C h i i l kely to
                          ty
takeev ery op p ortuni to b       reak up any Jap an-U.S. alli e  anc
                           e      on
andto attem p t th e ali nati ofth es e tw o c               e
                                                     ountri s . C h ina
 an                           s or     s         ,
c us e s ev eral m eth od f th i p urp os e andth e one w i          th
        gh          a iiy           c     s     na’      c al ti
th eh i es t p rob b l t ofsuc es s i C h i s s p e i tac cof
         n     th     i       ng,         s by
“to w i w i out fgh ti ” th at i “ e ond l m i         i ted w ar.”
   rs        na                                             m
F i t,C h i w illtry to w eaken or les s en U.S. s enti ent and
c      i                              oop         th
 onsc ousnes s to s u p p ort andc eratew i Jap an,th en to
      erm ne          s ap b l t
und i Jap an’ c a i i y andi                      on
                                            ntenti to s up p ort th e
     ted                       na l am          gn n
Uni States . Next,C h i w i lc p ai i Jap an andth e
Uni                   or
      ted States f th e alienati           on of th e Jap an-U.S.
        ons p          dti           na an
relati h i . In ad i on,C h i c m ake “b y ondl m i    e        i ted
                  fc v       y ui i           ap b l t
w ar” m ore efe ti e b b ldng a c a i i y to fgh t an          i

                                 73
 nf         on   h       IT)       h     y e
i orm ati tec nology ( w ar,suc as c b r w ar,tow ard
     c       na s i ti     ts f        s s
w h i h C h i i drec ng i eforts . Th i i not th e talk of
          ng    om     h     i            y e
s om eth i to c e. Suc a fgh t h as alread b gun.
             f
    E v en i Jap an and th e Uni                        c s ully
                                       ted States s uc e s f
m ai      n     i
     ntai th e r alli e i i m os t c eni nt f C h i
                      anc , t s            onv    e     or      na
                                            c on
w h en Jap an h as as m an y res tri ti s on d en s e      ef
 oop        on th
c erati w i th e Uni                              b i
                             tedStates as p os s i le, l ke th os e
 m            n            ay
i p os ed i Jap an tod . Th e greater th e num ber of
       c v               n           s ef       oop
res tri ti e m easures i Jap an’ d ense c erati w i       on    th
th e Uni                      gh               i on n
          tedStates , th e h i er th e ap p rec ati i C h i    na.
             na      di              s or
W h at C h i w oul l ke to s ee i f Jap an to m ai           n ts
                                                         ntai i
                   ef
exclu s iv ely d en s e f   ram ew ork, n ot to ch ange its
c       tuti nc udng ollec v e s elf ef
 onsti on i l i c                ti                  gh
                                          -d ense ri ts , not to
     e d th           m
p roc e w i w arti e or nati                       y      s
                                    onal em ergenc legi lati   on,
and not to loos en th e ac                c ons und “th e law
                             tual res tri ti         er
 onc rni                                 e       c ty
c e ng m eas ures to ens ure p eac ands e uri ofJap an
 n tuati
i si             n                   i
            ons i areas s urroundng Jap an.”

      c
B as i Strategy against C h ina.

                                   d
     Th en w h at s trategy s h oul Jap an take against C h i na?
       e             h s                uidng
Th e b s t ap p roac i a s trategy ofb l i a v ery p rac c   ti al
                          ii
and m utually benef c al ec              c       ons p
                                   onom i relati h i , w h i e  l
      dng                  c          h         b         na s
av oi i p olitical as p e ts as m uc as p os s i le. C h i i a
c                 an
 ountry th at c m ai            n l
                          ntai c os e ec       c e
                                         onom i ti s ev en w i th
                                             s
Taiw an . It can n ot ign ore Jap an ’ econom ic an d
    h    ogi al                   c ar     ed
tec nol c s trength s ,w h i h f exc e th os e ofTai an.    w
                   i s     fc ent          n
In turn,Jap an fnd s ufi i ap p eali th eenorm ous s c e      op
        na’              ng                        s or
ofC h i s ev er-grow i m arket. In oth er w ord ,f Jap an
             or      na,
as w ellas f C h i a m utualc os eecl           c      ons p s
                                          onom i relati h i i
es s ential.
    F rom th e m i            e      nt,    na oes
                    litary v i w p oi C h i d not ac       tually
s eem to c      d             s ef
           onsi er Jap an’ d ense p ow er as a true th reat,
c             ts      i c                a l m        c
  ontrary to i p ol ti al p rop agand c ai s ,w h i h at ev ery
           ty     er             s      enc      l tari ati
op p ortuni ref to “Jap an’ tend y ofm ii z on.” It
 s eas b e                         na          y ac
i f i l to as s um eth at C h i h as alread f tored nto i i    ts
                          c ngs i Jap an’ d ense f ti
s trategy all th e s h ort om i      n       s ef       unc ons:
 m      e t on n ef
i p erf c i i d ense-related legi lati     s         nd
                                               on; i ep end  ent

                               74
  ef            iis      ef c     n        p
d en s e p ol c e ; d e ts i equi m ent; res tri ti      c ons on
v ari  ous op erati          ef
                      ons d ects f                h
                                        rom s u c p olicies ; les s
aw arenes s of th e Jap anes e p eop le and gov ernm ent i        n
  ef                                k      und
d ense m atters ; andth e lac off am ental s trength to
         n           h           c              ef    nd
sustai w ars ,s uc as abas i ally w eak d ensei us try and
  ef           s c                     ore
d enselogi ti s s y s tem . Th eref ,onem us t not i     gnoreth e
        bl t              na
p os s i ii y th at C h i m ay m aneuv er Jap an i       nto s om e
  onfi ts          or
c l c ov er,f exam p le,th e Senkaku Is land andoth er s
       tori               onfi ts f tuati c b generated
terri al andE E Zc l c i a s i                 on an e
 n       c
i w h i h th e Uni                    ll
                     tedStates w i not ( c    or annot) interv ene.
Jap an m us t d            h       b l ti s y ts        es
                 eter s uc p os s i ii e b i elfand tabi h a  ls
                                    ri       fc v
s y s tem th at can res p ondto c s es efe ti ely . It m us t s top
bi               on      th
  e ng a nati w i out any s en s e or p rep arati f         on or
             i         es ri e           ,
em ergenc es as d c b d abov e and es tabi h i ow n  ls    ts
       on            ty
n ati al s ecuri s y s tem to res p on d agai t C h i ns        na.
           s ,    h      m     ll om
Oth erw i e s uc a ti e w i c e s om e d .       ay

      ng
Securi U.S. andJap an A lliance as an A xle.

                      e            be       on n
    F or Jap an,th e b s t p os s i l op ti i nati              c ty
                                                        onal s e uri
   ap
ad table to th e v ari     ous f                    c     s
                                   uture p ros p e ts i a s e ure c
                 anc .                    on s onc i
Jap an-U.S. alli e No oth er op ti i c e v able. In th e
env i                          i c
     ronm ent ofth egeo-p ol ti als i          on
                                        tuati ofN orth eas t A s i   a,
         s e nl ree to c
Jap an i c rtai y f                    d
                                  onsi er oth er op ti            h
                                                         ons s uc as
        anc , i               anc
nonalli e blateral alli e w i a c       th               ev
                                                ountry ( en C h i   na)
oth er th an th e Uni                               l
                      ted States , or a m ulti ateral alli e     anc
 nc udng          a,      na
i l i Rus s i C h i and th e Uni                  ted States . Som e
db                     ti
  e ates and p rop os i ons about suc op ti  h      ons h av e taken
     en
p lac i and   out ofJap an. H ow ev er,th es eop ti               th
                                                       ons areei er
 m        be         k uture p ros p e ts . C ertai y af th e
i p laus i l , or lac f                    c           nl      ter
                                      c              e i d
endof th e C oldW ar, th e as p e t ofa p eac dv i endw as
           z ,
em p h as i ed an d s om e ev en ques ti          oned w h eth er a
                 anc              e        ed
Jap an-U.S. alli e w ouldb need any longer. Th e joi                 nt
d          on
  eclarati of Jap an and th e Uni                             n
                                               ted States i 19 9 7
   d f ned th e alli e and i enti i a c e drec on
re e i               anc            d       fed       l ar i ti
tow ardan ev en stronger relati             p
                                     onsh i .
                 ted              gni i anc
    F or th e Uni States ,th e s i fc e ofa Jap an-U.S.
    anc s i                   dng
alli e i , frs t ofall, p rov i i regi  onal d           fc
                                              eterrent efe t


                                 75
                       e         orc s n              nly
th rough th e p res enc ofU.S. f e i Jap an,m ai N av y ,
   r       e               n                     gn f c
A i F orc , an d M ari es . Th e s econ d s i i i an c i      e s
  ev     ng c          l             c     s          an
d elop i ac ep tab es up p ort m e h ani m s th at c sati f    s y
                 ard n
th e U.S. s tand i term s ofev ery th i f  ng rom s u p p ly and
       r        i al      c             if         e      nt,
rep ai to m edc s erv i es . F rom a dferent v i w p oi th e
Uni               s                    ts
     tedStates i w ell aw are th at i m ii             th raw
                                             l tary w i d al
f                            d            th
 rom Jap an w ould p rov i e Jap an w i a good m oti e to   v
 orti y ts
f f i m i       litary p ow er. M oreov er, th e Uni ted States
      z                   anc
reali es th at th e alli e s erv es to d                       b
                                             eter any p os s i le
 onfi ts e                fed             na,
c l c b tw een a uni i K orea,C h i andJap an i th e        n
future.
                    h            m           nv
     W h eth er s uc U.S. ai s are i olv ed or not, i i         t s
p ref       l or           on or           ted
      erab ef th eregi f th eUni States andJap an to
      n     n                an
m ai tai a s olid alli ce an d to retai a m utually n
  om
c p lem entary relati            p       l h       anc
                          onsh i ,w h i e t e alli erem ai as ns
     nc n or
a li h p i f regi             c ty nc udng                s c ty
                      onal s e uri ,i l i Jap an’ s e uri .
     na                         o          l om
C h i andNorth K orea d not w e c e suc an alli e     h       anc .
        a s
Rus s i i no l             ke            e      on
                 onger li th e Sov i t Uni ofth e oldd s .     ay
                  oes                fc ent
N orth K orea d not h av e s ufi i p ow er to c ront th eonf
Uni   ted States . Only C h i           c onally h as s h ow n a
                                 na oc as i
    li             onf               ted
w i l ngnes s to c ront th eUni States i m i      n litary p ow er,
       t s
andi i th e only c                                       al    o
                        ountry th at h as th e p otenti to d s o.
                       on or
Th us th e only op ti f Jap an i to m ais             n       i iy
                                                 ntai ands ol df
                          anc ,        c
th e Jap an-U.S. alli e w h i h not only p rov i es th e    d
      ii y    cs         or av
s tab l t ne e s ary f f orab e regi l             ev
                                             onal d elop m ent,b ut
       s m            or         ety      s c ty
als o i i p ortant f th es af and e uri ofJap an. A t th e
           m             anc s          cp
s am e ti e th e alli e i anti i ated to f ti as a     unc on
d                 nst
  eterrent agai C h i      na.
                    m ni
    Th e B us h ad i s trati c           d
                                on onsi ers Jap an as th e m os t
 m                          n     a.
i p ortant U.S. ally i A s i A n Insti                or
                                               tute f N ati    onal
                                              1
         c
Strategi Studes (                 c al             c s
                 i INSS)Sp e i Rep ort, w h i h i s ai to b d e
      und                                   m ni       on’
th e f am ental s tatem ent ofth e ad i s trati s Jap an
    iy                   th aref
p ol c ,exp res s es ,w i c                 ted        ng
                                 ully s elec p h ras i to av oi    d
      m         on               ng
th e i p res s i of p res s uri Jap an, th e s trong w i h tos
   c
s e ure andf               i iy                      anc
              urth er s ol df th e Jap an-U.S. alli eth rough
        s f              v           lm           gh
Jap an’ eforts to s ol e th ep rob e ofth e ri t ofc            ti
                                                          ollec v e
    -d ense.
s elf ef


                                76
         n                               ty        i
    C h i a w ill take ev ery op p ortuni to ds rup t th e
       ons p e
relati h i b tw een Jap an andth e Uni     tedStates . Jap an
              e nf       e y     h         ,
m us t not b i luenc d b suc a m ov e andm us t exert
           f           i iy                      anc ,
ev ery efort to s ol df th e Jap an-U.S. alli e w h i       le
p ers ev eri      l m nati any elem ents th at m i t ali nate
            ngly e i i    ng                      gh    e
                      ted
Jap an andth e Uni States .

       i
C reat on andM aintenance ofD ef      ense Pow er
   t           t onal D ef c enc es .
w i h out F unc i         ii    i

                l           f         ev           fci
     W h at w i l h ap p en i Jap an d elop s efe t v e m i  litary
d                   nst
  eterrents agai C h i             c          ts
                            na? B e aus e ofi nati           iy
                                                    onal p ol c ,at
                     l       e om
leas t, Jap an w i l not b c e a m ii      l tary superp ow er. Its
  as c               s
b i s trategy i to rely on th e d                     fc
                                          eterrent efe t of U.S.
                                             anc .
s u p p ort bas edon th e Jap an-U.S. alli e H ow ev er, s om e
f                           ev
 utureargum ent m ay d elop as to w h eth er th eroles h ari     ng
 n                            anc
i th e Jap an-U.S. alli e m us t be li i         m ted to Jap an
        dng            ed
p rov i i th e s h i l andth e Uni                        dng
                                        tedStates p rov i i th e
s w ord  .
    Th e Uni              s urrently s tud i a new d ense
              tedStates i c                  y ng         ef
             nc          ng         s         ef
s trategy i orp orati th e m i s ile d en s e ini ati e. ti v
     c dng      s
Pre e i th i ,a new Quad            al
                               renni D ef              e QD
                                             ense Rev i w ( R)
                e       tob r
w as announc don Oc e 1,2         001. Th e new QD R,s trongly
    l ci             ks                  e            s
refe t ng th e s h oc ofth e Sep tem b r 11 terrori t attac    ks
           c
on A m eri a,aband              onv
                     onedth ec enti     onal tw o m ajor th eater
      2                      d fed            iy     c ng
w ar ( M TW )s trategy andi enti i a p ol c ofs e uri new
       as
U.S. b es ,s tati           acl t e or
                  ons,andf ii i s f tem p orary us es ,w h i   le
    onfrm ng         m          e     orw
rec i i th e i p ortanc of f ard d loy ed f e .  ep        orc s
      tab y t      l e om              i fc
Inev i l i w i l b c e m ore df i ult to op erate U.S.
          orc s         ,    , n          as
arm edf e abroad and i s om e c es , th e s i               on
                                                      tuati of
     u
red ced m ilitary cap ability m ay contin u e s em i-
                             l
p erm anently or tem p orariy .
         er   h
    Und suc a s i         on,           s
                     tuati Jap an need to c          ef
                                             reate d ense
forces th at are f         unc on
                    ully f ti al quali        v       f
                                          tati ely , i not
        tati               n
quanti v ely , to sustai th e d                         n
                                  eterrent p ow er agai s t
     na            ous        en
C h i th at p rev i ly h as b e m ai ntai ned th rough th e
                anc .      h           ll nev tab y ri
Jap an-U.S. alli e Suc a m ov e w i i i l b ng
 h         n           ng n                    anc , ut
c anges i role-sh ari i th e Jap an-U.S. alli e b at

                               77
               m       ll
th e s am e ti e w i enable Jap an to take on th e role ofa
d                 nst      na nd
  eterrent agai C h i i ep end                             ng
                                        ently . A s s um i th ec e as
               tati             i           ce
ofU.S. h es i on to exerc s e th e arti l s ofth e Jap an-U.S.
         ty                       or
Securi A rran gem en t, f exam p le, i th e cas e of  n
 nti d on              ks
i m i ati attac relatedto th e Jap an-C h i terri al     na      tori
  i                                                 s
ds p ute area ov er th e Senkaku Is land or m i -range        d
  alli c s l              ks         y         as
b s ti m i s i eattac on nearb U.S. b es i Jap an usi   n           ng
conv en ti                    s                        f
            onal w arh ead , Jap an m us t ef ectiv ely and
 nd
i ep end    ently d           ef          nst     h nti d on
                    eter or d endagai s uc i m i ati or
ac              ks y       na
   tual attac b C h i andth w art C h i s i     na’ ntenti F oron.
    s t s        cs        or              ui
th i , i i ne e s ary f Jap an to b lds uf i i                  ef
                                                       fcent d ense
 orc s n               c        nc udng ap b l t e or
f e i ev ery s p e trum ,i l i c a i i i s f balli ti              s c
    s        ef      ,     f
m i s ile d en s e s w i t am p h i i                     on
                                     b ous op erati s agai s t     n
 s      s y           nes                      i
i lan d b m ari , p aratroop landngs , and as s ault
      i      y     lb                                ,
landngs b h e i orne troop s . F urth erm ore p os s es s i th eng
 ap ii y               k
c ab l t to attac enem y s trategi c     c enters b antiy          ac
                                                              -surf e
 rui ng        s les      l e om                  s
c s i m i s i w il b c e th e next i s ue. To d elop            ev
     h ef         orc s              s          y
suc d ense f e ,Jap an need not onl to h av e d es ti         om      c
  i us ons,b als o to m ake ad tm ents w i th e Uni
ds c s i          ut                 jus                th         ted
          onc rni ts
States c e ng i s h are ofm ii                 unc ons
                                       l tary f ti .

           ng                            p
D ev elop i Political andM ilitary D i lom acy
agai nst C h i      t
              na,w i h B oth H ard-line andM oderate
Stances .

                               e       s oth h ard i and
    Jap an m us t take a s tanc th at i b          -l ne
m od           nst    na’     i i al
     erate agai C h i s p ol t c andm ii           i       y
                                           l tary dp lom ac ,
     c s                 na’
w h i h i bas ed on C h i s uni          e
                                  que v i w of nati ons and
v alues .
        rs                 s           na      e an
    F i t,Jap an need to as k C h i to b “ op en c        ountry ”
 n
i m i                 c                 n             na c ntly
        litary as p e ts as w ell as i oth ers . C h i re e
                  ts
s tres s edth at i m i         orc s              ef    v
                        litary f e arep urely d ensi e. C h i  na
     ls        ts        te
p ub i h ed i “W h i Pap er on Nati                    en , ut
                                              onal D ef s e ” b
     na’                  y s    l ar e ow
C h i s tran s p arenc i s ti l f b l th at ofne gh b ngi ori
c          e                 ,          s      d
  oun tri s . In E urop e th ere i rap i and s i f c t  gni i an
           on        onfd e ui i
p rom oti of c i enc -b ldng m easures em b i              rac ng
 orm
f er W es t and E as t c               e      th ev
                                ountri s , w i d elop m ents to
                         y     c     ti          na
ensure tran s p arenc . Re ogni on of C h i as a c         ountry
         om i s      th           ’s        ard s d
th at c p l e w i th e w orld s tand s i w i e-s p readi        n

                                 78
 c       c
e onom i and c                  c                ii     y
                  ultural as p e ts , as exem p l fed b C h i sna’
W orld       e        z on W                   e
       Trad Organi ati ( TO)m em b rs h i and i ng p       w nni
      i or
th e b df th e 2           y    c n        i ng, es te om
                   008 Ol m p i s i B e ji d p i d es ti         c
          gh         lm        c
h um an ri ts p rob e s w h i h h av enot b e fe n ully c     c .
                                                          orre ted
                                       ty            na      t
Jap an m us t take ev ery op p ortuni to as k C h i to ac as a
m oreop en c          n           c       onfd e uidng,
             ountry i th e as p e t ofc i enc -b l i and
           m           l tary tran s p arenc .
to try to i p rov e m ii                     y
       c ,                           na                     ti
    Se ond Jap an m us t as k C h i to take a m ore p os i v e
      e
s tanc tow ardregi            i           na          e nac v
                       onal dalogue. C h i us edto b i ti e
 n
i regi   onal c      i
                ounc ls ,b tod th ere i a s tri ng c ange i
                           ut   ay         s       ki  h       n
     na’                 na       e             cp      ti
C h i s p os ture. C h i h as b gun to p arti i ate ac v ely i n
regi onal c        i      s c ally on p ol ti al and e onom i
              ounc ls , e p e i             i c         c      c
 s                        na’      c p on s               i ted
i s ues . H ow ev er,C h i s p arti i ati i extrem ely l m i
 n c ty                m
i se uri -related atters ,p rob              e aus    na i s t
                                     ably b c eC h i fnd i
  i v                 n         as       t
ds ad antageous i m any c es ,or i h as les s aw arenes s of
             or
th e needf tran s p arenc .   y
                       ti     s
     In term s ofm ari m e i s ues , regi         d
                                          onal-w i e SL O C s are
                                         na ut           om
th ep rop erty not only ofJap an or C h i b areals o c m on
             on,          c         i     ety s     om
to th e regi andto s e ure th e r s af i a c m on tas k
         b
s h ared y regi onalc         e
                      ountri s . F or regi      ev
                                          onald elop m ent,i its
 m                           ety e ns
i p ortant th at SL O C s af b e uredth rough th e joi         nt
   f
eforts ofregi  onal c       e       not e e t
                     ountri s and b l f und th ec  er     ontrol
              c
ofany p arti ular c                               na     z
                     ountry . W e needto let C h i reali e th at
          on                              h
th e regi as a w h ole m us t s h are s uc rec      ti
                                               ogni on.
          e     ay        oc               on        e n rac
    In rec nt d s ,th e f us ofattenti h as b e p i y at
      onv    ng
th ec ergi p oi ofi nts    nternati                         h
                                     onals earoutes s uc as th e
       c        t.         e m              or
M alac a Strai It m ay b i p ortant f Jap an to take th e
 ni ati
i ti v e to c   reate an env i              n       c
                                ronm ent i w h i h C h i can na
      cp             ng rom th e eas y -to-ad res s i s ues of
p arti i ate, s tarti f                           d       s
    ety nv ronm ent,andh um an ri ts c erati andas
s af ,e i                              gh      oop      on,
a p art ofregi         f          eal th om
               onal eforts to d w i c m on i s ues l ke s        i
   rac
pi y , d                                 e
          rug s ales , th e s lav e trad , and env i   ronm ental
        on,    m
p olluti ulti ately andgrad                      ng
                                  ually s tep p i up to nati    onal
   c ty s
s e uri i s ues .
            i      h       i       lm
    Regardng suc p endng p rob e s betw een Jap an and
     na         di      e              n                na
C h i as th e m i -l neb tw een th em i th eE as t C h i Sea,
     s                   s                    on ts s ure
an i s ue relatedto E E Z ,Jap an m us t aband i ob c

                                79
    tud
atti e and i ti ni ate a s eri       i us on            ls
                               ous ds c s i to es tabi h a
               ord or
tem p orary b er f th e true Jap an-C h i               di
                                                 na m i -l ne.
M oreov er,w h ere both c       e l m        tori    gh
                         ountri s c ai terri al ri ts ,th e
tw o c       e                                   nt
       ountri s needto agree to tem p orary joi control of
th es e regi                  ls
            ons and to es tabi h a c      i
                                      ounc l to c ontrol th em
     l m      i           l s ng     d l nes f Jap an-C h i
w h i ei m edately es tabi h i gui e i        or            na
   nt                      ons
joi control ov er th e regi .
        m                   h       ati
     Si ultaneous to s uc negoti ons,Jap an m us t p rev ent
        le      ti ti s       orm    y                    s
any i l gal ac v i e p erf edb nav al v es s els and urv ey
     p         l arly i ri
s h i s th at c e                            s     s i ti n ts
                        nf nge up on Jap an’ juri dc on i i
       tori s            .               el           t ll
terri e andE E Z Jap an m us t d c are th at i w i take
    cs              ei v       ti       nst       le
ne e s ary andd c s i e ac ons agai any i l gal ac v i e  ti ti s
          op   fc v
andad t efe ti e m easures . A s l     ong as Jap an leav es s uch
       tori s              i       na l         oub ly
terri al i s ues p endng,C h i w i l und ted p roc e           ed
    th         t ter                          ts f c v
w i one ac af anoth er to p rom ote i efe ti e c            ontrol
                       na         t i n                  na
ov er th e E as t C h i Sea,as i ddi th e South C h i Sea.
                                         s     m
     Th e Jap anes e gov ernm ent need to i p lem ent th es e
   ti             i ally      c
ac ons m eth odc ,m eti ulous ly ,and i                  as on
                                            v gorous ly b ed
                              s                     e
a grands trategy . F or th i , w e m us t rem em b r h ow U.S.
  i          c
dp lom ati s trength i i  n nternati             ati
                                    onal negoti on h as b e  en
               y         ns   ons s ng
s u p p orted b “brai ” c i ti of and organi ed b        z    y
internati                     h
            onal law res earc ers , th ink-tanks and relev ant
          ti s              n
auth ori e andexp erts i v ari         i s                 y
                                  ous feld rep res entedb th e
D ep artm ent ofState or th e D ep artm ent ofD ef  ense.
          na’     e c           on s                   ni e
     C h i s oc ani exp ansi i s om eh ow rem i s c nt of
            ti                          n
U.S. ac on s . F or Jap an to w i ov er i tern ati n        onal
  om       ti     t                         s om
c p eti on, i m us t aggregate th e w i d ofnot only th e
b ureauc           ut                v       c          ev
           rats , b als o ofth e p ri ate s e tor, andd elop a
              ri          h
s trong s p i t to launc a nati                               t s
                                    onal s trategy . Th us , i i
                 cp                       l          ts
s trongly anti i ated th at Jap an w i l pursue i nati       onal
interes ts joi        y      lc         v        c
                ntly b p ubi andp ri ate s e tors und th e er
               ers p        m     ni           c ro
s trong lead h i ofPri e M i s ter Juni h i K oi um i   z .

E N D NOTE S - C H A PTE R 3

    1. Th e Unie States and Jap an: A d anc ng Tow ard a M ature
               td                          v     i
               c                t      d
Partne h i , Ri h ard L . A rm i age, e ., W as h i
       rs p                                                        i
                                                   ngton, D C : Nat onal
   ens      v   ty    tob r 000.
D ef e Uni ersi ,Oc e 2


                                  80
                         C H A PTE R 4



              A V IE W FROM M OSC OW :
              S
     C H IN A ’ G ROW ING M IL ITARY POW E R

                   A n atoly V . B oly atko



          na’
     C h i s m ii         oc ne s
                  l tary d tri i an outgrow th of B e ji s   i ng’
           c onc p
s trategi c e t of nati              c ty        i      e on
                             onal s e uri , th e r p erc p ti of
                              i      m   on          i lh
external th reats , andth e r es ti ati ofth e l ke i oodof
            s
w ar. Th i m ii          oc ne nc ud            ti
                l tary d tri i l es p os i ons not only on
           ni                  orc s ut      i om
th e trai ng ofth e arm edf e ,b th e r c p os i on and  ti
                 ers p                         lc
role. Th elead h i ofth e Peop les Rep ubi ofC h i (    na PRC )
s ees nati          c ty             e
            onal s e uri as a p roc s s ofeli i       ng nternal
                                               m nati i
                                              h e
andexternal th reats ,andas a w ay to ac i v e regi     onal and
      al je ti
glob ob c v es b es c y         ng           na’           s
                           alati w h at C h i s s trategi ts c  all
         om           v                                 ev
“th e c p reh ensi e p ow er of a s tate.” A w ell-d elop ed
econom y , a h i     gh lev el of s cien ce an d en gin eeri g  n
   h e
ac i v em ent, i                i i al     ii
                    nternal p ol t c s tab l ty , and a s trong
  ef
d en s e are c          d               n om
                   ons i ered as m ai c p onen ts of th e
  om           v
c p reh ensi e p ow er ofa s tate.
     In C h i na, m i                            n onne ti w i
                     litary th reats are s een i c       c on th
           al h             n
p otenti c allenges i th e ec                 c          i     i i al
                                       onom i and s oc o-pol t c
                 gi
s p h eres . Jud ng f             nes       l c ons       i ng
                        rom C h i e p ubi ati , B e ji s ti l       l
                   c                ts       n
s ees econom i grow th as i m ai p ri ty . A noth erori
   gni i ant d es ti c e i th e m ai
s i fc           om      c onc rn s                         e
                                                   ntenanc of th e
     i        ii a      er
s oc al-p ol t c l ord and “nati                ty       s nc ud
                                       onal uni .” Th i i l es
         ng            i ng                    enc es
op p os i w h at B e ji s ees as th e tend i ofm i              ti s
                                                            nori e ,
            w
andTai an,to s ep arate f                     nes
                                rom th e C h i e s tate. B as edon
    i ng’
B e ji s as s es s m ent of th e c    ontem p orary i  nternati onal
si        on
   tuati at th eregi     onal and       al
                                   glob lev els ,th em ai  ntenanc  e
ofm ii            c ty              rd
        l tary s e uri ranks th i am ong th e m ajor nati       onal
     ori e
p ri ti s ofC h i   na.


                                81
                     ers p         ng          nes
     Th e PRC lead h i ,m eani th e C h i e C om m uni t         s
         C      ,
Party ( C P) C entral M ii                 s on C       ,
                           l tary C om m i s i ( M C ) andth e
     ib            i
Pol t uro Standng C om m i           ei v                       c
                              ttee,b l e es th at th e p ros p e ts
 or          b
f an out reak of a w orld w ar are low . Th eref , t e   ore h
      e        ui dng         nes
p roc s s ofb l i th e C h i e m ii            an e arri dout
                                       l tary c b c        e
m eth odc            er ondti               ep
          i ally und c i ons th at d end on long-term
      e        h      th          on’ c         c ev
p eac m atc ed w i th e nati s e onom i d elop m ent.
Th us , th e requi          or               s   b      on
                   rem ent f th e Peop le’ L i erati A rm y
 PL      s      nc                 ordng
( A )i to i reas e s trength ac i to m ii        l tary andcv i i l
d elop m ents .1
  ev
   In th e internati                     nes
                    onal s p h ere, C h i e lead fers ores ee a
                  -p               e aus
return to a m ulti olar w orldb c e of s ev eral regi      onal
 onfi ts       et    th    if
c l c , alb i w i df erent d                  on
                                        urati an d v ary i  ng
i      ty           nc      ng c            e    i l
 ntensi ,andth e i reas i oc urrenc ofcv i w ars .
            na’ e            c ty tuati i th eA s i
    In C h i s v i w ,th es e uri s i  on n             ii
                                                   a-Pacfc
regi       s
     on i s table, alth ough th ere are s om e n egati ev
 ev
d elop m ents :

   ?         nc
       Th e i reas edm i                  e             n
                          litary p res enc ofth e U.S. i areas
        l             na’ ord
       c os e to C h i s b ers ;

   ?           h uled d loy m ent of th e th eater m i s i e
       Th e s c ed     ep                             s l
        ef      TM            n
       d ense ( D )s y s tem i E as t A s ia;

   ?         ev                                   n       or
       Th e d elop m ent ofa bas e ofs u p p ort i Jap an f a
                on        c ons on m i
       relaxati ofres tri ti                      ti n
                                      litary ac on i a z   one
                 i
       surroundng Jap an;

   ?   Inc          n        op        nt
            reas e i th e s c e of joi m i              i
                                            litary exerc s es ,
             c ally betw een th e Uni
       es p e i                                     ts     e
                                     tedStates andi alli s ;
       and   ,

   ?         ii y
       Instab l t on th eK orean Peni         i
                                     nsula and n South A s ia
       andterri al ds p utes i th e South C h i Sea.2
                tori i          n              na
        w    s      c al onc rn          nes
    Tai an i a s p e i c e ofth e C h i e lead h i .ers p
             y           i d p i c         ers p
W eakenedb abitterly dv i ed ol ti al lead h i ,Tai an w
 s urth er sub c to th ei luenc ofexternal f e ,e i
i f            je t      nf      e           orc s as ng
          or               fc on th                      .
th e w ay f ev entual reuni i ati w i th e m oth erland In

                               82
     na’      ni
C h i s op i on, c      n ac         ni c           i
                   ertai f tors are i m i al to th e r
i           n    w
 nteres ts i Tai an:

   ?      ti ti s                     or         s        rati
       A c v i e ofth os e w h o h arb s ep arati t as p i ons
                  w   s
       am ong Tai an’ lead ;  ers

   ?   M ii        d rom th e Uni
           l tary ai f                                c nc ud
                                    tedStates , w h i h i l es
                          th    i lh
       w eap on sales ,w i th el ke i ood f            nc      f
                                             of uturei reas es i
                   c                                w     c ty
       th e A m eri an C ongres s p as s es th e Tai an Se uri
                 e
       E n h anc m ent A c t;

   ?                b nc us on          w
       Th e p os s i le i l i of Tai an i     nto th e U.S.-led
                    s le ef
       th eater m i s i d ense s y s tem ; and,

   ?                 e                n             c
       Th e p res enc ofU.S. troop s i Jap an,w h i h enables
                ted
       th e Uni States to i             n          b
                             nterv ene i a p os s i le m ilitary
       c rontati i th e Tai an Strai 3
        onf         on n        w         t.
     In res olv i                            w
                 ng th e p roblem of Tai an, th e C h i es e    n
                    h                        i
gov ern m en t ad eres to th e p rin c p les of p eac ul        ef
       fc on
reuni i ati and“one c       ountry , tw o s y s tem s .” It h as p ut
f                                     ev
 orw ard s om e p rop os als on d elop i                ros
                                                 ng c s -s trait
       ons     th                               e ul
relati ,w i th e ev entual goal ofp eac f reuni i ati       fc on.
     na onsi ers th e Tai an ques ti w h olly an i
Ch i c        d             w            on                  nternal
   f r       nsi           t ll o               ng n ts
afai andi s ts th at i w i d ev ery th i i i p ow er to
   h e         e ul       fc on.                 f
ac i v e p eac f reuni i ati H ow ev er,i ev ents result i          n
            on        w
a s ep arati ofTai an f             na     er
                           rom C h i und any s logan,C h i        na
 s     li              orc o        c ts
i w i l ng to us e f e t p rote t i s ov erei         gnty and i   ts
      tori ntegri .4
terri al i          ty
       th      s      ts m
    W i th i as i i p etus , C h i                      ed ts
                                        na h as u p grad i
   l tary cap a i i y ,retroftti i arm edf e i an efort
m ii            blt          i ng ts         orc s n        f
to transf orm th em i               ul,    ern
                       nto a p ow erf m od arm y . Id     eally ,
                      e be o         t    na      nst
th e PL A s h ould b a l t p rotec C h i agai external
th reats , m ain tain in tern al s tability , an d if      —
                                  w
n eces s ary — guaran tee Tai an uni i ati             th
                                          f c on w i th e
m oth erland  .
           er      h e  ts            na          oos ts
    In ord to ac i v e i goals , C h i s eeks to b t i
    ti al ap b l t e nc udng attlefeld m anagem ent,
tac c c a i i i s , i l i b             i
      c        uri     i al f n ondti
p arti ularly d ng radc s h i ts i c i ons, as w ell as

                                83
                 ern     h                       na
us age ofm od tec nology . Th us ,C h i h as p ai s p e i    d c al
           on     m
attenti to i p rov i th e bng                  fcenc        ts
                                       attle efi i y of i troop s ,
    f ng          oc              i
s h i ti th e f us to qual ty rath er th an quanti . Th i     ty     s
     e
rec nt trend of m i i                m                 am
                           l tary i p rov em en ts c e f         rom a
op erati                 s                 on
           onal analy s i of Op erati D E SE RT STORM i              n
              s s     lec       n
19 9 1. Th i i ref ted i th e s oluti                             y
                                               ons p rop os ed b th e
        s
C C P’ C entral C om m i            n           e
                             ttee i Sep tem b r 19 9 5 andi th e  n
   i c v                               c v
dre ti es of th e PRC Pers p e ti e D ev elop m ent Program
unti 2              c
       l 010, w h i h th e N ati                  s
                                   onal Peop le’ C ongres s ( PC )N
Standng C om m i
          i          ttee ap p rov edi M arc 19 9 6 .5
                                          n     h
                               na’                       h ule
    A t th e endof19 9 8,C h i s C M C ap p rov eda s c ed of
  ef           erni ati
d ense m od z on as w ell as a new m ii            l tary s trategy
        oc ne. In i new m ii
and d tri              ts          l tary s trategy , th e PL A i  s
  i c            n or
dre tedto trai f w agi b                  n     p
                             ng attle i p eri h eral regi     ons of
     na,        n ale        s
C h i s m all i sc and h ort i d              on, ut
                                     n urati b noneth eles s
i        v                  on or       h
 ntensi e. Th e p rep arati f suc a w ar dfers radcif         i ally
f      ts
 rom i p rev i                     c oc                 ng
                ous s trategy w h i h f us edon w agi w ars of
      ti          c                oc       uri
attri on, w h i h w as th e f us d n g i p eri of    ts       od
 onf          on th             on          e     i s
c rontati w i th e Uni ofSov i t Soc ali t Rep ubi s            lc
(USSR)6   .
        na’   l tary s trategy f
   C h i s m ii                          i       n
                               ores ees fv e m ai ty p es of
   al
loc w ars :

   ?             ale       th n         tori ound e of
       Sm all s c w ars w i i th e terri al b    ari s
       Ch ina;

   ?   W ar to c         jac nt              s    s
                ontrol ad e w ater areas andi land ;

   ?        d    r        k        c        e     th n
       Sud en ai attac on s trategi res ourc s w i i
            nes
       C h i e territory ;

   ?   D ef     v
           ensi e op erations agai      eli e    nv
                                   nst d b rate i as ions of
              c                na;
       res tri tedareas ofC h i and    ,

   ?               f      v ns              s
       C ounterofensi e agai t an op p onent’ territory in
              ati      or     on              c
       retali on f aggres s i and to p rote t nati    onal
       s ov ereignty .7



                                 84
                             s
    C om m on to allth os eli ted           s           t i ted
                                   abov ei th ep urs ui ofl m i
    i c         s    e          th
p ol ti al end ach i v able w i th e h elp ofa m ii   l tary read  y
 or m         i     ep                     ap l
f i m edate d loy m ent and c ab e of routi th e            ng
                       n            s te or     h e ng
op p onent. Th e m ai p rerequi i f ac i v i s uc an          h
    c       s      fc v
out om ei th e efe ti e us e ofm i            orc .
                                       litary f e Th us ,B e jii ng
c     d             i                    al         nds
 onsi ers th ereadnes s to w ageloc w ars an i i p ens able
       or h e ng i ted p ol ti al end , and th i s h oul
tool f ac i v i l m i              i c        s           s        d
 nc ud f c v nti d on                   th
i l eefe ti ei m i ati and e ab l t to es c   ii y        alate to a
full-s c w ar.8
        ale
                    c onc p                    ng
     Th e s trategi c e ts of reas s es s i th e s ourc s of  e
m ii                              ng           i c
    l tary th reats and targeti th e p ol ti al and m i      litary
       ers p
lead h i to c    reate a new m ii               i
                                  l tary p aradgm w as ap p rov ed
 n         oc ne
i th e d tri of C h i               na’
                           na. C h i s m ii                 z on
                                            l tary reorgani ati
                or
w ouldallow f a s ufi i              ons
                          fc ently c trai     nedm ii        uri
                                                     l tary d ng
       e m        th    ep
p eac ti e and ed loy m ent ofa large arm edf ed ng     orc uri
                      orc s         na
w ar. Th e arm edf e of C h i s h oul c        d orres p ondto i ts
 c         c ap b l t e nsure s oc o-p ol ti al uni ,andnot
e onom i c a i i i s , e               i      i c       ty
vi olateth ei        ty
              ntegri ofth ec                th n
                               ountry . W i i th ef   ram ew ork of
        b e l tary c l c ,th enuc e f e ofth e PRC are
p os s i l m ii       onfi ts           l ar orc s
 n
i v oked to d    eter aggres s i            ns       n
                                  on agai t C h i a an d th e
c enti
 onv       onal f e are i
                 orc s      ntend to m anage loc w ars .9
                                    ed                 al
    Th e m od           nes      l ar            s h
               ern C h i e nuc e s trategy i c arac z    teri ed
  y
b th e f         ng          ti          ng        e m ,
          ollow i tw o p os i ons . D uri p eac ti e nuc e  l ar
 orc s
f e are i            ed
               ntend to d                   al    v     e rom
                              eter p otenti ad ers ari s f
           ng      l ar
unleas h i nuc e w ar agai                 na
                                  nst C h i and to guarantee
           na s ree          i       nd        ent ore gn
th at C h i i f to exerc s e an i ep end f i p ol c .        iy
                       l ar orc s uri           m    s
Th e p urp os e ofnuc e f e d ng w arti e i to p rev ent
     na’
C h i s enem i s f               ng
                  e rom turni a c enti  onv     onal w ar into a
     l ar
nuc e w ar.
        na                   red        s nc udng
   C h i h as s ev eral h und w arh ead ,i l i s ev eral
interc onti          alli c     s                    c
           nental b s ti m i s iles , s om e of w h i h are
 ep             ti al rc t.
d loy edon tac c ai raf
                         na
     A p p arently ,C h i h as no i      on     h e ng
                                   ntenti ofac i v i nuc e  l ar
      ty     th
p ari w i th e Uni                            a.
                          tedStates andRus s i It h as f ounda
     l              op      n                       c       l ar
p h i os op h y , ad ted i th e 19 80s , of “res tri ted nuc e
c                  k    th
 ounter attac w i th e purp os es of s elf ef    -d ense.” Th is
 onc p
c e t not only takes i               ons d      on
                               nto c i erati th e li i    m ted

                                85
 i       i           e
fnanc al res ourc s ofth e c              ut       c    z
                                ountry ,b als o re ogni es th at
th e Uni                            a                i
           ted States and Rus s i p lan to retroft exi ti  s ng
                  ep              ef    v
s y s tem s or d loy n ew d en s i e s y s tem s th at w ill
           ie           h e            nes
neutral z any ac i v able C h i e s trategi nuclear  c
  ui d              alc
b l up . Th e c ulati              em
                             on d on s trates th at C h i enes
  ei            ce             ap              om ng       c v
d l v ery v eh i l s are not c able ofov erc i p ros p e ti e
       -b s c        s l                     r ef
anti alli ti m i s i e s y s tem s and ai d ense s y s tem s ;
c                         l os        ii y
  onsequently ,th ey w i ll eth eab l t to p rev ent th e United
States f   rom i      eri    n     na’      i i al f rs
                nterf ng i C h i s p ol t c afai . Th i i   s s
                 n          al             na ac s
one ofth e m ai potenti th reats C h i f e at th e glob       al
        10
lev el.
         na’      ers            y el                  l
    C h i s lead h av e op enl d c aredth at th ey w i l not
          l ar           i                 ,   na’
us e nuc e w eap ons frs t. Furth erm ore C h i s s trategi c
     l ar orc s                         om
nuc e f e op erate on a th ree-c p onent s truc        ture:
          c s l orc s               c     ati
s trategi m i s i e f e , s trategi av i on, and nuc e   l ar
     m     nes     s om
sub ari . Th i c p acts truc             orc s s c s
                                  tureoff e i ne e s ary to
d                 nst        na,       ute om at s ons n
  eter w ars agai th eC h i to exec c b m i s i i
res p on s e to v ari      n        on           os
                      ous i tern ati al s cen ari , an d to
 nti d                               s     n
i m i ate th e s m aller h egem oni ts i th e A s i       ii
                                                    a-Pacfc
regi 11
     on.
        s   cs             d f           nc    s     y e
    It i ne e s ary to i enti y th e i onsi tenc b tw een
     na’     i i al e l
C h i s p ol t c d c arati                i     ts       i
                               ons regardng i no frs t-us e
    iy      ts    h     ogi al       blte
p ol c andi tec nol c cap a i i i s . Only about a d en     oz
       na’          c      l ar eli
ofC h i s s trategi nuc e d v ery s y s tem s are loc     atedi  n
p rotec      l        h             e n
       teds i o launc ers . H enc , i term s ofth e th eory of
                        es     ti        na’     s ng
m utually as s ured d truc on, C h i s exi ti nuc e          l ar
 orc s          i          i         ke ap b l t
f e h av e ne th er a frs t s tri c a i i y nor i C h i s     na
 ap l                ng            v
c ab e ofunleas h i a m as s i e retali               ke
                                           atory s tri to w i ep
                         s      ty s
out an aggres s or. Th i reali i m enti          n
                                           onedi th e m i  litary
  oc ne
d tri ofC h i   na.
                 t oes            na        d       c p on n
    H ow ev er, i d allow C h i to av oi p arti i ati i
                         d ti
nuclear w eap ons re uc on agreem ents , s uc as th e h
         c             uc on         e
s trategi arm s red ti treati s . In 2                 s
                                             000, th i auth or
       M
as ked r. Sh a Z  ukang,D i  rector-G eneralofth eD ep artm ent
                           s                      nes
ofA rm s C ontrol andD i arm am ent ofth e C h i e F ore gn i
    ni                 na’            n                 an
M i s try ,w h at C h i s role w as i th e U.S.-Rus s i arm s
     uc on i ti v es . H e believ es th at C h i a w ould
red ti        ni ati                                n


                               86
      cp      n    h       e              a
p arti i ate i suc treati s w h en Rus s i andth e United
            uc     i     s ng                 ith
States red e th e r exi ti ars enal to one-ff of th e r i
c                     s i fc        m      ne
 urrent lev els . It i df i ult to i agi M os c   ow and
W as h i          ng   s
        ngton taki th i s tep .
           nes
      Ch i e b                  ni
                    attle trai ng and s trategi nuc ec                s le
                                                            l ar-m i s i
         i
exerc s es are c      onti ngent on p rop erly m ai    ntai ned roc    ket
                        nes
s y s tem s . Th eC h i e roc                  h        c        m lar
                                  kets are tec nologi ally s i i to
            e
th e Sov i t R-5 andR-7. Th es e roc       kets w ere d i            n
                                                         es gnedi th e
                         od oop           on e
late19 5 0s — a p eri ofc erati b tw een nuc e                        s l
                                                            l ar-m i s i e
      c ali       n
s p e i s ts i th e USSR and C h i            na. Th e extent of th e
Rus s i           nes        h              d
          an-C h i e exc ange s h oul not be ov eres ti ated       m     .
F ar f                                 2 il on,            s c
         rom th e quotedlev el of$ 0 b li a reali ti am ount
 is n                on       5    i on
l e i th e regi of$ -7 b lli per y ear ofw h i h onl $       c        y 1
  il on onsi ts ofm ii
b li c           s                      p                          s
                           l tary equi m ent. A n am ount th i s m all
     ll                     gn f c
w i h av e little s i i i an ce in i c           n reas i ng m ilitary
       erni ati                        m ,
m od z on. A t th e s am e ti e th e relati                   p e
                                                       onsh i b tw een
          a           na                         eres m
Rus s i andC h i s h ouldnot be und ti ated It takes           .
   m          efort       ui a               p n      c
ti eand f to b ld p artners h i i w h i h th es h ari of              ng
 nf
i orm ati      on— es p e ic ally related to w eap on s — i d e   s on
     li              dti               a,     na       e ev
w i l ngly . In ad i on to Rus s i C h i h as r c i edl m i        i ted
m ii l tary ai fd rom oth er c              e
                                    ountri s and b               c
                                                       road e onom i     c
       s
as s i tanc f e rom w es tern p ow ers — b      oth ty p es of ai ared
   fc ently i orp oratedi
efi i           nc                             nes          or
                                 nto th e C h i e p lan f nati        onal
       erni ati
m od z on.
        s    i                    nes              l
    It i unl kely th at th e C h i e ars enal w i lp erform w ell
 n uc onal andc bat-trai
i ed ati               om                         ue
                                     ner tes ts ,d to th e s m all
                 uc on
v olum e of p rod ti and l m i   i ted early tes ti           na’
                                                     ng. C h i s
    h     ogi al     e nd                 s le
tec nol c lag b h i th e U.S. m i s i p rogram b ters     ols
  oub              c ul s le i ngs
d ts ofany suc es s f m i s i fri .
             y
    On Jul 12 2 , 001,U.S. D ep uty D ef             c
                                           ense Se retary Paul
      ow tz
W olf i sub i    m tted a s tatem ent to th e Senate A rm ed
       c
Serv i es C om m i     es ri i                c ul
                  tteed c b ng th eunsuc es s f tes t launc      h
           c         4     ,          5      ,
ofA m eri an Th or ( of5 ) A tlas ( of8) andPolari ( 6 of s 6
12 )s trategi m i s i e .12 Sov i t m i s i e t s ti d ng th e
   3           c s ls            e      s l e ng uri
           ed      m l                                na’    s le
19 6 0s y i l eds i iar results . A p p arently ,C h i s m i s i
        m       on             th                  c
exp eri entati h as m et w i th e s am e out om e. Th ough
                      nd        orc s
gov ernm ent and i us try f e w ant m ore exten s i e          v


                                  87
       ng         na’
tes ti of C h i s ars enal to eli i              es gn law
                                       m nate d i f s , th e
    gh os       ai           rus
h i c t off lure h as f tratedf                    f           s le
                                         urth er eforts . A m i s i
                                  odc                    m
s y s tem m us t be tes ted p eri i ally to ensure i m edate    i
             n om at tuati Th elac oftes ti on a large
res p onsei a c b s i            on.        k        ng
    ale                        lm     or      ei b l t
s c p os es tw o m ajor p rob e s f th er l a i i y ofC h i s   na’
             i
ars enal: frs t,th ec              k            law
                      urrent s toc m ay h av ef s ,and e onds c ,
            ab l t       law            h nc
th e p rob ii y ofa f edlaunc i reas es th e longer a
     s l ts d
m i s i e s i i le andunm ai         ned
                                ntai .
               nes
     Th e C h i e rely on les s ons f              onfi ts
                                       rom p as t c l c to s h ap e
     i e          ui i             -p          orc s
th e r v i w ofb ldng general urp os e f e andd loy i       ep   ng
th em i  nto b                  c      m          e n      s
               attle. Ofp arti ular i p ortanc i th i res p e t   c
        en                     n     c      h    ogi al
h as b e th e G ulfW ar i w h i h tec nol c s up eri ty        ori
                      c     ef
w as us ed to qui kly d eat th e op p onent. Th us , C h i s    na’
                       v
s trategy h as ev ol ed f   rom th e tradti  i onal “grand arm y ”
      el n av            onc p    i      as
m od i f or of c e ts l ke “f t reac on” and“loc   ti             al
w arf                   onc p
       are.” Th es e c e ts m and                     nt
                                        ate th at joi s tate and
m ii         n tuti          e    l           c
    l tary i s ti ons b ab e to qui kly and efe ti ely      fc v
      ii e n       ac
m ob l z i th ef eofc b s i                ons      th
                           om at tuati and at th e arm ed
 orc s e                      m      i
f e b p rep ared to i m edately w age w ar i one or       n
s ev eral th eaters .
               d       as      ti        os
    Th enew i ealof“f t reac on”h as f teredc d onsi erab el
 h
c ange i b                ni       t         z on
           n attle trai ng, uni organi ati and uni          t
 orm     on             erni ati                v
f ati as th e m od z on ofth e PL A ad anc s . Th e   e
c      on
 reati andc     ontent ofth ePL A b       om
                                   attle c p onent s tructure
(         orc s        as       ti   orc s ap
 “alert f e ” and “f t-reac ng f e ” c able of qui k       c
  e i on               ng s
d c s i s on em ergi i s ues ) h as b e recen         z
                                                 ogni ed as
 nds
i i p ensable.
    Th e PL A m i           om        s
                   litary c m and i w ell-trai   ned and h as
     p    b
equi p ed attali   ons andb gad to b us ed i p ac uni
                             ri es       e     as m    t   ts
 ap l           c
c ab eofqui k,retali              ti             ts
                          atory ac on. Th es euni are trained
to exec ute th e f       ng    m       je ti
                  ollow i p ri ary ob c v es :

   ?   B reakth rough ,

   ?        k s ons          as am               l tary ,
       Sh oc m i s i on th eb ec p s ofenem y m ii

   ?           v        ati       th                 ef ng
       M as s i e retali ons w i th e p urp os e of d eati
                ti            d
       op p os i on strongh ol s ,and

                                88
   ?      ti s y    c               lank th e op p onent.13
       Tac c b w h i h PL A troop s f
    Uni i           ed
         ts ntend to exec                      s on je ti
                                ute th es e m i s i ob c v es are
currently trai          n
                 ned i eac m ih              i c            h
                                    litary ds tri t. Th e c angi  ng
internati   onal s i      on, n onne ti w i th e endofth e
                    tuati i c           c on      th
                     c
C old W ar and e onom i c e                       nd e
                             c onc rns, h as i uc d C h i to  na
    uc                            n
red eth eranks ofth ePL A i th es h ortterm . Th earm y w i l      l
  rop      .5   lli           e f
d to 2 m i on m em b rs (rom m ore th an 4 m i on)and     lli
em b  ark on a v i              erni ati       f         s f
                  gorous m od z on efort. Th i efort w i l         l
 l              e       as             uc
c os e a num b r ofb es andred e th e num b r ofm i    e      litary
  i s ons andregi ents . H ow ev er,th ep rob e ofup d ng
dv i i                m                              lm       ati
th e arm y to m od                            en       d      .
                      ern lev els h as not b e ad res s ed Th e
p res ent c    i on                   s h      teri ed y
            ondti ofth e PL A i c arac z b a lac of             k
        als           y         ev
m ateri us ed b m ore d elop ed c                    e
                                             ountri s anda great
  eal        s           p
d ofob olete equi m ent andw eap onry .
     Th e tradti i onal m ii         oc ne             na nc
                             l tary d tri of C h i s i e M ao
Zd                                    nds
   e ong h eldth at p eop le w ere i i p ens able to d elop aev
m od                                              s    e
       ern arm y . C urrently , th ough , th i v i w h as b e      en
                 th oc nes of exp ede y and c a i i y —
tem p ered w i d tri                       i nc           ap b l t
 onc p                 ac d ter       na’ i l
c e ts th at s urf e af C h i s c v i w ars andc l c            onfi t
    th                    dti            i
w i Jap an. In ad i on to th e r ow n exp eri nc , th e    e e
     nes                f                 k
C h i e als o “s teadas tly keep trac ofs trategi s i     c tuati  ons
 n                        om i           e
i th e w orld and c b ne th e b s t tac c f        ti s rom f i ore gn
countri s w i nati
          e       th       onal exp eri nc .”14 In th e end th e
                                        e e                      ,
  oc ne                  s
d tri of“Peop le’ W ar und M od      er                   i ons
                                              ern C ondti ” w as
    op       .
ad ted Th is d                               z
                        octrin e recogn i es th e in creas in g
 m             e     h           n     are
i p ortanc oftec nology i w arf andenv i i             s ons an arm y
    th
w i a balan ce betw een w eap on ry an d troop s th at
   fc v         unc ons n i i
efe ti ely f ti i fv edm ensi                     r, and
                                         ons: ai l ,s ea,s p ac ,    e
          h     ogy         dti
andtec nol . In ad i on,th e p lan c                 or          ati
                                               alls f th e up d ng
            y     s ng l tary -i us tri op erati
ofalread exi ti m ii                nd      al          ons.
        c al          on s      d                    on
    Sp e i attenti i p ai to th e p rep arati of arm ed
 orc s n        e m               or m       i
f e i peac ti e to allow f i m edate res p ons ei c e         n as
     onfi t.      dti
of c l c A d i onally , h ow ev er, p lans are m ad to          e
  fc ently transf
efi i              orm th enati   onalec           i l r ef
                                         onom y ,cv i ai d ense      ,
and  nati                     on ef
          onal tran s p ortati d ens ef                e ul
                                           rom a p eac f s tate to
              m
one ofw arti e op erati               s    on       en
                           ons. L egi lati h as b e pas s eds o
       f                e rees ,alls tate b i s ,p ol ti al p arti s ,
th at,i th es tates o d c                  ode       i c          e

                                 89
 i       nsti          iz           l gated to m ob l z
frm s , i tutes , and cti ens are obi              ii e
                             15
   c i          ted d l nes .
ac ordng to enac gui e i
          ng                       und          h
   D uri th e las t 2 y ears , f am ental c anges h av e
             en     i       ef
taken p lac i th e feldofd ense ed     ucation. Th e s tate h as
       orm
transf ed ec          c                    iz       y
               th urri ulum to targetallc ti ens b trai ng ni
 n road andm ore general areas . D ef
i b       er                                      uc on
                                         ense ed ati now
 on s
c s i ts of regular, i          v      ni     om i
                        nten s i e trai ng c b ned w i        th
corres p ond e andd ti e c as s es .16
             enc      ay m        l
          l e i fc        or        nes         om i
   It w i l b df i ult f th e C h i e to c b ne th e
    i onal m i
tradti                    ti e         nf              m
              litary p rac c ofm as s i antry ands i p le
   ti al
tac c op erati         th                       gh     i on
                ons w i th e us age of new , h i -p rec s i
                          e eh               oub ly
w eap onry and aeros p ac t c nology . Und ted , th e
       orm   on    l em                   i i ati
transf ati w i l d and s ev ere m odfc ons to th e
   s ng litary i ras truc
exi ti m i        nf         ture.
      Th e m os t s eri        m    dm                 na’
                       ous i p e i ents to C h i s m i i      l tary
  ev                    ts
d elop m ent are i agi m i      ng              as
                                       litary b es and c   enters of
        uc on.
p rod ti In c                              n      c orm
                    ontras t to th ew ay i w h i h f er C old arW
                                            u    ed
p eriod in s tallations w ere f n d , th e curren t
    m ni        on c          z
ad i s trati re ogni es th e need f a s ol d natior      i      onal
  c                    m
e onom y andth e i p ortanc ofc     e          i
                                          oordnati ec          c
                                                     ng onom i and
m ii          ui i         f           nes
     l tary b ldng eforts . C h i e p rop agand w orks toa
c               fed c            c          n      c
  reate a uni i e onom i s y s tem i w h i h p rod ti can uc on
          oth i l
s erv eb c v i andm ii                            orm    uri
                             l tary us es — th ef er d ng ti es m
          e     th             uri     m         onfi t.
ofp eac and e latter d ng ti es ofc l c C reati th e          ng
                          l e        lm      c ue
s y s tem ,h ow ev er,w i lb p rob e ati d to C h i s c  na’ urrent
              h c
lev el oftec ni al exp erti e.  s
    A t p res ent,m ii                h      d                s
                      l tary res earc and ev elop m ent i largely
 nefe t v        ue n                              i
i f c i e d , i p art, to p oor s tate fnanc ng. C h i s i          na’
b          rac                         n        ow
  ureauc y als o h as a h andi th e s l p ac ofm i      e         litary
                  gi h n
R&D . Th e ri d c ai of c m andof om                   f        i
                                               ten sti les s c enti i fc
 d       e ore
i eas b f th ey can reac d c s i                              dti
                                 h e i onm akers . In ad i on to
p oor organ i ati                   v       lc        ti
                 z on, n egati e p ub i reac ons h am p er
p rogres s w h en new s ofm ii            ev
                                  l tary d elop m ent leaks out to
           lc               ns           en         z
th e p ubi . Sm all gai h av e b e reali ed b s tud i      y       y ng
       an
Rus s i m ii                p          ke     m      nes es
                l tary equi m ent li s ub ari , d troy ers ,
   rc t             r ef
ai raf and ai d ense s y s tem s ; th e know led gai ,      ge      ned
              s    ni
h ow ev er,i m i m al.

                                  90
                erni ati
    Th e m od z on of th e PL A of                     ed
                                              ten p roc e s at th e
     m       fcals                 t                ow
w h i ofof i i ; ev en th en,i m ov es at a s l p ac d to  e ue
       m ted d ense b get and ob olete equi m ent. Th e
th e li i        ef        ud              s           p
   c
s e tors ofth e m ii                      v     e          dy
                     l tary s latedto ad anc m os t rap i l are
     l ar
nuc e op erati                   d ep oy
                   ons andrap i d l m ent-ty p e landtroop s .
               h
Im p ort purc as es aref                oos         i
                            orgone to b t s p endng on m i   litary
tran s p ort p lanes as w ell as ai ef                         nes
                                       r-d ense troop s . C h i e
                     th    gh      orm
nav al v es s els w i h i p erf anc rati     e    ngs are entered
i           c
 nto s erv i e.
                                    c or
    In th e s h ort term , p ros p e ts f m ii              ev
                                                   l tary d elop m ent
   l                na’ onti
w i l res t on C h i s c                c        c
                                nuede onom i grow th — c        urrently
        e
8 p erc nt p er y ear. H ow ev er, th e c                  m ni
                                              urrent ad i s trati     on
h as recently as s i                      ab l t
                     gneda low p rob ii y to f          uture e, xternal
   l tary th reats ; th i p lac s m ii
m ii                     s       e                     i
                                       l tary s p endng near th eend
          ne or ud          nc                s      nt, t
ofth eli f b get i reas es . A t th i p oi i ap p ears as i             f
       ulk                           i       ll oc
th eb ofgov ernm ent s p endng w i f us on retroftti a            i ng
res earch com p lex, creatin g n ew                       arm s w ith
     nes          uc d
C h i e-p rod e elem ents , and lay i th e fnanc al  ng         i    i
                                                       17
         w       or
ground ork f a m ii                  h
                           l tary tec nology b e. as
               e         ev        ng                c
     Th e p roc s s of d elop i m arket m e h ani m s i th es     n
c              ob ni                     e e om
 ountry and tai ng th eexp eri nc ofc m erc al ac v i        i    ti ty
          m l       ev               n
ledto s i i ar d elop m ents i th e PL A . Sp e i attentic al        on
           d
w as p ai to m ai            ni        i      fc
                       ntai ng s c enti i and tec nologi al h        c
  ev              n                 ni          ef
d elop m ent i areas p ertai ng to d ense b l i and        ui dng
rais in g th e s tan d          s
                           ard of engin eerin g to m od             ern
requi                  na
       rem ents . C h i h as c uc  ond teds truc                orm
                                                     tural ref s to
c                   gh       orm       e i e          ef
 reate a new ,h i -p erf anc s c enc ofd ense s y s tem s ,
engi        ng,        nd        e
      neeri andi us tri s . A m ong th es e w as th ec          reation
                 s on          i e         h
ofth e C om m i s i ofScenc ,Tec nology andInd try f           us     or
N ati onal D ef        n        h             s om      s on
                ensei M arc 19 9 8. Th i c m i s i op erates
            i     ep
as a leadng d artm ent ofth e State C ouncl andenac      i            ts
    iis                       h ules                 ard n
p ol c e , law s , rules , s c ed , ands tand s i areas of
   l tary i luenc . In July 19 9 9 ,fv em ii
m ii        nf       e                    i                     z ons
                                                 l tary organi ati
           c ali e n          l ar                  c c t, rc t,
th at s p e i z i nuc e w eap ons, s p a e raf ai raf
n av al v es s els , an d w eap on s m an u f        acturin g w ere
                                           18
          z nto
reorgani edi ten c orati    orp       ons.



                                  91
    W ith th e h elp of th e n ati           ef
                                    onal d en s e s cien ce,
engi       n          n us
     neeri g, and i d try ref                om       ti
                                    orm s , c p eti on w as
i      uc d nto th e m ii
 ntrod e i                           uc on      c or.
                         l tary p rod ti se t Th e w ar
 nd      s
i us try ’ s truc           m        , ts b l t            ti
                 ture w as i p rov ed i a i i y to trans i on
               e                  i    ,
betw een peac andw ar s tream l ned andp lans w ere m ad      e
 or
f th e creati    on of a n ew op en s y s tem of m i     litary
p rod ti 19
     uc on.
     Th e c urrent s ty le of b           ni   oc
                               attle trai ng f us es on m aki  ng
 ndv d            i rs             oh    v     t.
i i i ual s olde p art ofa c es i e uni On th e regi ent    m
         i s on
and dv i i s c               fc       ri ng
                    ale, of i er d lli th rough c p uter om
   m
s i ulati                                                 v
            on h as largely rep laced th e exp ens i e, liv e
           ti         ni          ti ed       e
am m uni on trai ng p rac c earli r. Th e c b ned        om i
     ti al     ni     as                   d           le
tac c trai ng b e s y s tem p rov i es a v ers ati trai ng   ni
             y       dng                     ti al,
ground b p rov i i netw orked tac c w eap on, and
       c m         on        els
s erv i e s i ulati m od . A n i              ti    om
                                        nterac v e c m and and
c            m
  ontrol s i ulati                 p               on m
                   on, new equi m ent op erati si ulati        on,
        om          d          ni                      en
and c p uter-ai ed trai ng s y s tem s h av e b e w i ely     d
ap p l e .20
      id
    Poor m ii          i     i          na i i y      nc
             l tary fnanc ng, th e i b l t to i orp orate
    h
tec nol c            v     e       p
         ogi ally ad anc d equi m ent w i c   th urrent troop s
                 ng        el
and th e ev olv i m od of s m all-s c     ale op erations troop s
        orc d
h av e f e PL A ofi i    fc als to c                e
                                     reate a num b r of “eli te”
  ri es
b gad and b              ons     c ally trai
                  attali , s p e i                 or m
                                             ned f i m edatei
      ii ati              i s ons re e v e th e larger p art of
m ob l z on. Th es e dv i i            ci
           und                   e          p       th
allottedf s andare th us b tter equi p edw i arm s and
      p           c           e     i      ni
equi m ent,w h i h enh anc s th e r trai ng.
                ty                                 ts
    Th em ajori ofth e PL A ,PL A res erv euni ,th eC h i e nes
        s             ie      e                l ti
Peop le’ A rm edPol c F orc , andth e m ii a are p rov i ed  d
   th ew            e or    ni           i
w i f res ourc s f trai ng exerc s es . F or exam p le,an
    i                lot    c          ns n           e
ordnary PL A A F p i ty p i ally trai i a Sov i t p rototy p e
     es gned n th eearly 19 5 0s . H eonly s p end 80 h ours p er
jet d i       i                                     s
       n         r—                 m
y ear i th e ai not enough ti e to m as ter th e c p lex om
    ls      loti                                l ng
s ki l ofp i ng,let alone gras p th e h andi ofh i -tec  gh     h
                   n om
w eap onry us edi c bat p lanes .
   Th e gap betw een current m i i         oc ne ab
                                   l tary d tri       out
    ern        th
m od w ar and eac            ti es              orc s
                    tualp rac c ofth e arm edf e h as
         n   efct          e e              nes    de
resultedi a d i i ofexp eri nc am ong C h i e s ol i rs .

                               92
              ii a              c                    v
Th ough p ol t c l rh etori p rom otes extensi e trai ng and   ni
 nc                           h          n om at
i reas ed us age of tec nology i c b op erati                   ons, th e
  ulk
b ofth em ii                           ern     p            th
                 l tary h as no m od equi m ent w i w h i h to       c
     n.
trai Th e s i         on e am                    e n
               tuati b c e s o p ronounc di 19 9 8 th at th e
               e i ed           n ad
PRC C M C d c d to trai c res abroad                   re rui ore gn
                                                 and c t f i
     c ali             n
s p e i s ts to trai v ari      ous elem ents ofth e PL A . Th ough
            nes
m any C h i e s olde traii rs            n           e
                                    nedi th e Sov i t Uni d ngon uri
                 s s
th e19 5 0s ,th i i no l                as
                           onger th ec e. Th ed c              d re
                                                  e reas ed es i to
              an
learn Rus s i h as c             b
                          ontri utedto th e d c            n
                                               e reas e i num b rs ,   e
     l h                  f          i         e om
w h i es c ools th at ofer E n gl s h h av eb c em ore p op ular.
                         nes                  onf
A lth ough th e C h i e s till h old c erenc s w i th e   e       th
        an
Rus s i m ii                                     c
              l tary ,th ey are m os tly res tri tedto th e general
h ead                     i c
      quarters andds tri t lev el. Th e m ii      l tary lead f  ers eel
             m       t
th at th e i p ac of f       orei  gners w i l rai e tec nologi al
                                             l     s        h          c
           ge                                          cp
know led th rough out th e PL A . Th e p arti i ants i th i        n     s
       ni ati        l e fc               gh     m d le
new i ti v ew i lb of i ers ofh i and i d rank,th os e
          ci
w h o re e v ed a broad ed ati      uc on, or th os e p os s es s i     ng
     c ali ed l tary know led Pres i ent Ji
s p e i z m ii                         ge.       d         ang Z i   em n
   m                       t s
h i s elfs tatedth at “i i better to let th e p rof s i es onals w ai    t
f or w eap on s th an f         or th e w eap on s to w ait f           or
     es onals .”21
p rof s i
               ti e        ni
     Th ep rac c oftrai ng troop s f b                         m
                                           or attle looks i p os i     ng,
                                      ty
ev en on p ap er. Th e quan ti of requi                             i
                                                      red exerc s es ,
                      fc ri l ngs tes ti i to th ec allengi
m aneuv ers ,andofi er d l i                  fes            h          ng
       is                   th         v
s tude ofth e PL A . W i th e ad ent ofm i                      orm
                                                   litary ref ,th e
        e           i          nc          , ut
num b r ofexerc s es w as i reas ed b th e s ub c c        je t ontent
  e am
b c eb           er         i               eep
            road andds p lay eda d er und tandng of      ers       i
         i c
geop ol ti s and m ii   l tary s truc ture. A f                 om i
                                                ter 19 80 c b ned
              i      e am              om             e
arm s exerc s es b c e m ore c m onplac . Strategi s of             e
                        i
en circlem en t, d s em barkation f             rom m arin e an d
   r-v     ce        us                               es
ai eh i l s ,and ageofw eap ons ofm as s d truc on w ere       ti
   i us
ds c s edf    rom b  oth ofensi e andd ensi e p os i ons. A s
                             f    v           ef     v         ti
                   7 i s ons,2 9 regi ents andov er 2 000
early as 19 84 ,2 dv i i           6        m                     00,
       c
s erv i em en w ere trai          n
                           ned i th e Sh eny ang and L anz ou         h
   i c                          n         i              ,
ds tri ts alone. Inv olv edi exerc s es w ere 3 6 00 arti l ry       le
    ee
p i c s , ov er 1,000 tanks and oth er arm ored v eh i l s , 13  ce
     p
s h i s , and 10,                   i                   e
                  000 autom ob les . Th e num b r of ai raf        rc t
    s ons c p leted w as 5 08. Th e m i
m i si        om                                              i c
                                                  litary ds tri ts of


                                  93
Sh eny ang,Ji                          nc
               nan,andW uh an s aw an i reas e ofb attali on
   ale      i    1, 6 ,
s c exerc s es ( 72 ) regi ent s c exercs es ( 9 6 ) and
                             m     ale     i     5    ,
  i s on ale        i     6 .        c
dv i i s c exerc s es ( 7) Strategi op erati            i
                                             ons exerc s es
             th          cp on
w ere run w i th e p arti i ati oftens andev en h und sred
ofth ous and ofs erv i em en.22
             s        c
         h
    E ac ofth e s ev en m i              i c
                               litary ds tri ts ofth e PL A c         e
                                                                  arri s
                  nd         en
out annual i ep en d t s taf and f       f                      i
                                                  ield exerc s es i    n
            on or al               nt
p rep arati f loc w ar. Joi op erati                  n       ati or
                                                ons i retali on f
  ord         rm s                        al nc d
b er s ki i h es andoth er loc i i ents are regularly
c      e
 arri d out. Inc                      lte               ord
                     reas ed h os tii i s along b er regi           ons
 os                es re             h         i
f tered th e d i th at s uc exerc s es s h ould c              reate a
m iil tary z                  nd
               one w h ere i ep end       ent op erati   ons c ould b  e
carri d         uri      e n m                 om
       e out d ng c rtai ti es . Th ec m and i c i fof     er n h e
a m i            i c
       litary ds tri t becom es th e h ead of an i           ntegrated
 om
c m and Ord  .                          h          , r,
                    ers to all attac ed land ai and w h en      ,
   cs
ne e s ary , nav al troop s are s ent f             e         om
                                            rom a c ntral c m and
f c l t i a s eas i e z 23 A ls o c
 a ii y n             d one.                      b ng
                                             ontri uti to p eac f   e ul
  ord      s          e s p                       on
b ers i th e F ri nd h i andC oop erati Treaty b tw een         e
            an
th e Rus s i Fed           on
                     erati andth e PRC . A lth ough th e treaty
c       ns
 ontai m any m ii                                i
                       l tary -support s oundng ref             e i ,
                                                          erenc s l ke
 c e ng                s               ty
“ onc rni guard ofs tate uni andterri al i           tori ntegri ,  ty ”
                    s fc v
th e agreem ent i efe ti ely a s tatem ent ofm utual s u p p ort
 or     i y onc rns t alls f s h ort ofa m ii
f p ol c c e ; i f                ar                             anc .
                                                      l tary alli e
           l                                         ty
     Unti th e endofth e 19 80s , th e m ajori oflarge-s c            ale
op erati               ond ted i north ern m ii
          ons w ere c uc           n                             i c
                                                        l tary ds tri ts
  as                      ti         onfi t
b edon th e s u p p os i on th at c l c w ouldari e b tw een s e
     na                  e      on.        dti
C h i andth e Sov i t Uni In ad i on, th e G uangz ou               h
      on
regi als o h os ted                       i        th      e
                       large-s caleexerc s es w i V i tnam as th e
          al                 c al        on             d
p otenti op p onent. Sp e i attenti w as p ai to th es elater
        i                or                    rs
exerc s es , th ough , f tw o reas ons. F i t w as th e needto
c                 ef           oas          tori s s c ally th os e
 arry out th e d ense ofc tal terri e ,e p e i
                           na          th
along th e South C h i Sea, w i as m uc efi i y as    h      fc enc
        be c                    om            v
p os s i l . Se ondw as th e c p reh ensi e nature— dv i i      i s ons
from all b        h                                —
              ranc es ofth e PL A w ere us ed ofth e trai ng       ni
    s ons. Of s p e i i p ort w as th e c m and of th e
m i si                c al m                      om          er
 oas         i c
c tal ds tri t, w h o als o h adc    ontrol ofnav al op erati      ons.
          ls       s
Th es ki l ofth i lead c                l e
                          er ouldeas iy b transf         erredto battle
 n
i oth er c          e
             ountri s . PRC N av al C om m andw ants to i reas enc

                                  94
th e b        ap b l t e             nes leet to a z
      attle c a i i i s of th e C h i e f           one of
op erati              ls          l nd      ent
        ons of4 00 m i e andenab ei ep end op erati   ons
       leet.24
ofth e f
                           c ali ed        i   om         e
     In th e 19 9 0s ,s p e i z exercs es c m enc dw i th e    th
u s e of h igh - tech arm am en t an d equip m en t. Th e
  ev                               c      are
d elop m ent of electroni w arf , suc as i p lantih       m        ng
   rus
v i es i                     om                   s ons d
           nto enem y c p uter s y s tem s , i c i ered th e
    m                           m       ons
p ri ary goal ofth es e s i ulati . Th e m i                i c
                                                    litary ds tri t of
                     th           c ali ed     i         c nc ud
Sh ey ang h os ted es es p e i z exerc s es ,w h i h i l ed
     nes
C h i e s p e i s ts i elec
               c ali       n       troni tec nology .2
                                        c h           5


          ng          ew
     D uri th e las t f y ears , th e m ii         i c
                                           l tary ds tri ts of
      h
L anz ou,Ji           ng,              h
             nan,Nanji andG uangz ou h os tedtrai ng     ni
   s ons i orp orati m ulti l b
m i si     nc        ng                  h
                            p e ranc es of th e arm ed
f e .26
 orc s
         nes
    C h i e m ii            c ali           en     l
                l tary s p e i s ts h av e b e ab e to ac  quaint
                                      s
th em s elv es w ith th e exp erti e of oth er c        ountries .
       i ng ore gn          ng th        i
C om b ni f i learni w i th e r know led ofh i tori  ge     s   c
 onfi t,              iy
c l c th ey m odf and s h ap e m ii         l tary s trategy and
  oc ne        t                  ti al
d tri as i relates to tac c op erati              ons and troop
p rep aration.
         m l                     n       e orc s uri
    A s i iar trend w as s een i Sov i t f e d ng th e
                         ng   s m ,        an
19 70s and19 80s . D uri th i ti e Rus s i prep arati f on or
                              om        ,       n lud
nuclear w orld w ar w as c p leted and i c ed th e
         ng             s
am as s i ofth ous and ofroc   kets andtens ofth ous and ofs
     l ar          s       e             h
nuc e w arh ead . Th ec ntral res earc bas eofth ec    ountry
      d                 e            an      ore gn es gned
p rov i eda h uge v ari ty of Rus s i andf i d i
                        v                    d               v
arm am ents . In th e ad ent ofanoth er w orl w ar,a m as s i e
     l ar    ke      nst
nuc e s tri agai th e op p onent c            e
                                        ouldb guaranteed     .
    Th e s i        on e am
             tuati b c e m ore c p l c  om i ated w h en th e
Uni  ted States and N A TO— f               y
                                  ollow ed b th e USSR and
c        e                         t— e
 ountri s of th e W ars aw Pac b gan p rep arati            or
                                                        ons f
 onv
c enti     onal w arf      n    dti             l ar
                      are i ad i on to nuc e w ar. Th i       s
            on
p rep arati resultedf              h      n         c v alled
                         rom th e c ange i p ers p e ti e c
           nuc e           on n l tary afai .” It ap p eared
th e “anti l ar rev oluti i m ii            f rs               ,
               f       nd          h          th
th ough ,as i th e m i s et h adc angedw i out a result i    n
ac            ti e.     d      e am      d         , h
   tual p rac c New i eas b c e w i es p read suc as th e


                                 95
            s les       le         ai orc s
us eofm i s i ,arti l ry and r f e to guaranteesuc es s ;          c
        -p nt       s       on
m ulti oi ob erv ati of op p onents ; and us age of a
  i s on— or ev en an arm y — to f
dv i i                                               v
                                        lank an ad ers ary . In v i w e
                   v     e n
ofth e great ad anc s i m ii       l tary engi         ng,
                                                 neeri all ofth es e
th i                     b             ni      m
     ngs s eem edp os s i le. In trai ng s i ulati      ons,th e s p eed
          f     v             ls       at
ofan ofensi ew as es tabi h ed 5 0 or ev en 100 ki om eters  l
         ay
p er d . W h en ques tion ed on h ow th e n eces s ary
           ti
am m uni on,f               ri ant oi ,m eans ofop erati and
                  uels ,lub c          ls                      on,
b attle m ai           e        d om          e        om
              ntenanc w oul c e to b , th e c m on answ er
               n              m                 cs       e
w as th at i a s h ort ti e th es e “ne e s ari s ” w ould b            e
 nv         .
i ented Sam p les ofarm s h adalread b e c       y e n reated and ,
                       s                 i
th ere w ere p rom i es of s p readng th em th rough out th e
arm e f d orces . On p ap er, th e rev oluti        on h ad alread      y
     om                    c
enc p as s edall as p e ts ofm i                             ty
                                      litary art. Th e reali ofth e
si tuati                            te if
         on, h ow ev er, w as qui dferent. Th e Sov i t arm y e
   m        i
s i p ly ddnot h av e th e p rop er f ati orm     ons andnum b r ofe
troop s to c                     ti al
              arry out th e tac c p lans th ey h ad       .
               lm           be       ti
    Th e p rob e ofp os s i l transi on to th e us e ofnuc e l ar
                    v     y i         ng       red
w eap ons w as s ol edb dagram m i h und s ofp otenti           al
    l ar      kes      ard
nuc e s tri on c s . E ac d                           ate m
                                h rew th e ap p rop ri i p act
z                m
 one and es ti ated th e c               e           ng
                               onsequenc s of us i nuc e     l ar
                l ed n                    -3 ay
w eap onry . Incud i th e p lans w ere2 d s to allow th e
  fc               l ar      k     l ar.   s        od
efe ts ofa nuc e attac to c e Th i p eri , h ow ev er,
           nc ud n i            ni        i
w as not i l edi feldtrai ng exercs es . Th ere i als o as
  e i ed k              l, v     n       te      ts
d c d lac of s ki l e en i th e eli uni , relati to         ng
       al             ogi c                                 orm
m ateri s up p ort, l s ti s ,andev en th e us e ofs om e f s
ofw eap onry .
        s ei v                                           d
    It i b l e ed th at th e gap betw een PL A i eals l ke       i
    gh     h oc
“h i -tec l al w arf    are”and              on n l tary afai ”
                                  “rev oluti i m ii           f rs
and th e ac              ti es
              tual p rac c of m i                  ts s
                                      litary uni i ev en m ore
            e         n          e
p ronounc dth an i th e Sov i t A rm y . A lth ough th e PL A i    s
 i     to       onc p               s
l nked th ec e t of“p eop le’ w ar” th rough w eap ons and
     p
equi m ent d i          i                   ts
               es gned n th e19 5 0-6 0s ,i target ofterri al tori
  ef
d ense c   reates a f       ati
                      ound on ofreli               c ty or
                                          able s e uri f C h i   na.
                             i fc       m      or
Th e 19 6 0-70s w ere a df i ult ti e f th e PL A as th e
   m ni        on i
ad i s trati ddnot allow m ii                       i         ati
                                     l tary s p endng on up d ng
w eap on s an d en gi          n
                        neeri g. Th ey w ai       ted w h ile oth er
c        e                      -3
 ountri s w ent th rough 2 generati            ons of arm am ents .

                                  96
                      s                          n
E v en now , th ere i not enough s u p p ort i th e C h i e nes
     ers p
lead h i to f            ull ale        erni ati
                unda f s c m od z on ofth e PL A . I
  ei v                  nes
b l e e th at th e C h i e w i c  ll onti             ng   s ng
                                         nue ap p ly i exi ti
                 i     l tary th eori s f qui s om e ti e.
w eap ons to th e r m ii             e or     te         m
               n    c
    One area i w h i h th e PL A h as attai    a gh egreeof
                                           ned h i d
    c      s n
s uc es s i i th e c       on
                      reati of a c                  fc
                                       ourageous of i er and
     uti        ir l                     c            li
exec v e s olde c as s . Th es e s erv i em en are w i l ng to
             n                  i ountry d p i th e arm y ’
w age w ar i th e nam e ofth e r c           es te           s
   ng       p
agi equi m ent anduntrai       nedtroop s .
                  s                       on
    Th e auth or’ abov e rep res entati ofC h i e m ines     litary
  oc ne                n ri f                on
d tri w as only i b e . Th e ques ti th en ari es as to   s
                na’
w h eth er C h i s m ii          iy          e       h       d
                       l tary p ol c h as rec ntly c anged ueto
        ng
w arm i relati           th          ted
                  ons w i th e Uni States . Th e answ er i ,of s
c                 v            oc ne
 ours e, negati e. Th e d tri and p rac c of b      ti e      attle
     ni                             nes
trai ng are s tap les ofth e C h i e m ii    l tary s tructure and
      re            ous m
requi trem end i p etus b f alteratie ore          on.
                   eni       iy         s       na s
    Th e U.S. h ard ng p ol c tow ard C h i i exp res s ed
 i     n ntenti
frs t i i       ons, s e ondi p ol t c l s tep s , andfnally i
                        c    n    ii a                   i      n
   l tary ac on. It w il b i
m ii        ti                       ng        i ov
                        l e nteres ti to ds c er h ow th e
                         m ni     on’
G eorge W . B us h ad i s trati s n ew f i        ore gn p ol ciy
 ni ati        l e         y
i ti v es w i l b m et b th e PRC — b                i i ally and
                                           oth p ol t c
   l tariy
m ii l .
            na,     n
    In C h i as i oth er c         e                ,
                            ountri s ofth e w orld th e lates t
s tep s ofth e Uni            n
                  tedStates i th e i  nternati  onal arena are
      ev              c s                      ts
p erc i edas A m eri a’ attem p t to as s ert i elfas th e las t
                    i                             er n
superp ow er andds rup t th ep res ent w orldord i th efeldi
ofi nternati         c ty
             onal s e uri .
         ev                 h      i y nc ud
   Th e d elop m ents ofs uc a p ol c i l e:

   ?   A p ow er d ktat an d th e us e of f
                   i                               th
                                           orce w i out
       international ap p rov al;

   ?           ep
       Th e d arture f                         -B   s c s le
                           rom th e 19 72 A nti alli ti M i s i
        A                    th        z on
       ( B M )Treaty and eorgani ati ofa nati         onal A B M
                           s l ef         TM
       and th eater m i s i e d ense ( D ) s y s tem w h i h  c
                             c alanc andf turedth e s y s tem
       up s et th e s trategi b     e       rac


                               97
                           i       i tati        uc on
       ofagreem ents regardng th el m i on andred ti
           f   v orc s          l ar
       ofofensi e f e andnuc e arm s ; and   ,

   ?                on
       Th e exp ansi to th e E as t.
          ev            n     ore gn      iy        ttle i t
    Th ed elop m ents i U.S. f i p ol c h av eli drec
 m     t           a
i p ac on th eA s i Pac fcregi i w h i h C h i i s i
                        ii    on n       c     na s tuated    .
             e n,              l up             nc d
Th ere h as b e h ow ev er,abui d ofs m aller i i ents l kei
      om i                      as      n          e
th e b b ng of th e PRC em b s y i B elgrad and th e
 olli on             nes i         th            c
c s i ofth e C h i e fgh ter w i th e A m eri an E P-3of      f
th e is lan d of H ain an . F urth erm ore, th e B u s h
   m ni       on’                 w
ad i s trati s s up p ort of Tai an c              s
                                          ould sub tanti  ally
 om i ate          i i al
c p l c th ep ol t c and ii m l tary s i     on n
                                        tuati i th eregi  on.
        s s
    Th i i ,ofc      ,       ull s
               ours e not a f li t ofth eev ents instigatedb   y
th e Uni                       y       n       onc rns of th e
          tedStates to ov ertl res trai th e c e
PRC . If c      nue ,
            onti d th es e ev ents m ay lead to c p lexom
         ng
op erati m eas ures i b            i c
                       n oth p ol ti al andm i litary s p h eres
betw een th e tw o c      e
                    ountri s .
                   ers p
    Th e PRC lead h i s trongly reac    tedto th e ev ents i n
            a—               on
Yugos lav i to th e extensi ofN A TO andth e c          on
                                                   reati of
          -m s l ef                           ti
an anti i s i e d en s e s y s tem . Its reac on s are of a
    i c        i        c                      em
p ol ti al anddp lom ati nature: s tatem ent,d onstrati   on,
c         ng
 onsulti and c         i
                  oordnati w i l ke-m i ed c
                             on    th i      nd           e
                                                    ountri s .
                                as
Th ere are als o, h ow ev er, c es of m ii           ti
                                          l tary reac on as
   d e y           le      rs c nf ngem ent ofth eE P-3
ev i enc db th ei l galai p a ei ri                        .
    Th e PRC h as p ut f           h ule       orm     on
                         orth a s c ed oftransf ati th at
        nto        d le          1s           s        ons s
las ts i th em i d ofth e2 t C entury . Th i p lan c i ts
               i      c      c               nc          i ng
of 3 p arts : frs t, e onom i grow th andan i reas edl v i
       ard or           nes            c  ,        i     i c
s tand f th e C h i e p eop le; s e ond th e s oco-p ol ti al
      ii y
s tab l t ofth ec               th rd
                   ountry ; and i ,th eguaranteeofm i   litary
   c ty                  tori ntegri ofth e c
s e uri andth e terri al i            ty      ountry .
          i                 na’
    Th e frs t p art ofC h i s s trategy allow s little room to
  ei v         t n
d c s i ely ac i th e i   nternati onal arena. M oreov er, any
     nes
C h i e p lans ofm ii                 on ll              am
                       l tary exp ansi w i s ev erely d age
 ts ore gn econom i relati
i f i                    c                         ts
                                 ons and s low i n ati al   on
 c       c
e onom i grow th .



                               98
            c                     nes       s onne tedto th e
    Th e s e ondp art ofth e C h i e p lan i c      c
   ti          ti
ac v e extrac on ofgov ernm ent f e f orc s rom th e ec onom y .
                 u ti                n s
O n e of th e f n c on s of C h i a’ arm ed f       orces h as
     i onally b e to as s i t i naturalds as ter reli fp roje ts
tradti          en         s n            i          e       c
           b l am                             i
andto re ui dd agedh ous es . Natural ds as ters s eem to
p lague th e c                  i     t
              ountry ands o ds trac th e PL A f            ni
                                                  rom trai ng
   je ti                   , th         gni i ant red ti i
ob c v es . Furth erm ore w i th e s i fc             uc on n
            f           .5   li
th e arm y (rom 4 to 2 m i l on)andth e c        nui
                                             onti ng c f  all or
  i           e,      na
ds as ter reli f C h i m ay h as ten th e rem ov al ofth e PL A
from th e ec onom y .
             rd                  nes          le     ts
    Th e th i p art ofth e C h i e p lan re i s on i m i  litary
         al                 erni ati
p otenti andth e m od z on ofth e PL A . Th e p attern
h as been th e grad             es      ti        s
                         ual d truc on of ob olete i       tem s
 i l i                     le               rc t, t .)
(nc udng tanks , arti l ry s y s tem s , ai raf e c andth e
      h            i
p urc as e andds s em i        on             p
                           nati ofnew equi m ent th rough out
                 s     e s                  ng
th e arm y . Th i p roc s s i not th reateni to oth er c      e
                                                        ountri s
        oes        h
andd not c ange th e b                 e
                                alanc ofp ow er on regi  onal or
          ce
s trategi l v els .
                 d e                           ng
      It s h oul b notedth at, w h en lay i out i nati   ts       onal
       s             nes     ers p
goal ,th e C h i e lead h i tradti        i onally th i       n
                                                        nks i large
c            e n           m         od              b ts gni i ant
  ategori s , i large ti e p eri s , andexh i i s i fc
       e e          na                              e y
p ati nc . C h i nev er enteredan arm s rac b m as s i i        ng ts
  i                      y uy ng
feld troop s or b b i exp ens i e m od      v         ern w eap on s
                 nc                                      i
s y s tem s . Si eth e19 5 0-6 0s ,th e PRC h as bas ed ts s trength
                                      t        ci
on ground troop s , alth ough i h as re e v ed and c           reated
                      l ar              s ls      rc t
s am p les ofnuc e w eap ons ,m i s i e ,ai raf andm ari            ne
                  s             na i
v es s els . Sub equently ,C h i ddnot c uc bond t road     retroftsi
       ts
of i exi ti                                   t         on d
                s ng w eap onry , th ough i w as c s i erably
outd          .             one          ni
        ated It h as only d th e m i m um to ensure m i         litary
    c ty uri               i fc       m
s e uri d ng th e df i ult ti es ofth e 19 6 0-80s d ng         uri
       c
w h ih m i           onf
              nor c rontati   ons oc urredw i th eSov i t Uni
                                     c          th          e       on
                  ted
andth e Uni States .
    C urrently ,th einternati onal s i     on s      av
                                      tuati i m ore f orable
 or     nes     c ty       ng     onc p            s
f C h i es e uri . Us i th ec e t of“p eop le’ w ar, th e  ”
PL A reli             s
          ably guard th ec          s ord         na’
                            ountry ’ b ers . C h i s nuc e   l ar
arm s s erv e only as a d                    al
                         eterrent to p otenti aggres s ors .



                                 99
          na s                 or        onfi ts
     C h i i not p rep aredf m ajor c l c outs i e ofi  d      ts
ow n terri                           en
            tory , andth ere h av e b e no rum ors ofp lans i   n
    s i c on. E v en th e s tatem ents of C h i e lead
th i dre ti                                        nes        ers
         i              bl t      orc ng     w
regardng th e p os s i ii y of f i Tai an to rejoi th e     n
c                     e i s                                 i c
  ountry s h ould b ds m i s edas no m ore th an a p ol ti al
                     n
s h ow . Now ,andi th e near f        ,                   w
                                 uture an as s ault on Tai an i s
       d         na’ ap b l t
outs i e ofC h i s c a i i y .
        s tuati can b c anged b large i
    Th i s i    on         e h           y nternational
    i c          l tary ev ents s uc as :
p ol ti al andm ii                  h

   ?      s    ls                          fc on th
       Ob tac e on th e p ath ofreuni i ati w i Tai an,      w
       internati                             w
                 onal s u p p ort ofth e Tai anes e gov ernm ent,
       or c              i c
            areles s p ol ti al andm ii                     n
                                        l tary m aneuv ers i th e
           w
       Tai an strai   t;

   ?   A llow i                ui
               ng th e PRC to b ld a nuclear ars en al
                 ned
       unres trai ; and ,

   ?             ch       n        ii a        l tary s i
       D ram ati c anges i th ep ol t c lor m ii         tuation
        n         a   ii     on     n          d
       i th eA s i PacfcRegi or i th ew orl as a w h ole.
                           s                orc          ers p
    D ev elop m ents ofth i nature m ay f eth elead h i of
                    s ts
th e PRC to rev i e i m i       litary s trategy and p urs ue an
   c               erni ati                     orc s
ac eleratedm od z on ofth e arm edf e . Th e rap i                d
 c         c                  na          ts nc
e onom i grow th of C h i and i i reas i m ii       ng      l tary
p otenti       om i     w th ts ti
         al— c b ned i i ac v e and i m ii    frm              iy
                                                     l tary p ol c
         s ts                nc udng
tow ard i op p onents , i l i th e Uni          tedStates — m ay
          n                  l                        d
result i an unexp ectedy large th reat, s h oul C h i be    na
 orc d         nk      d       ts ord
f e to th i outs i e ofi b ers .
         d                  c        na ll                om
   Sh oul th es e ev ents oc ur,C h i w i h av e to ov erc e
c   d     l i fc e ncudng:
 onsi erab e df i ulti s ,i l i

   ?              h c          h      c
       A w eak tec ni al andtec nologi al bas e;

   ?   A v ul      l c       f ras c nc        n litary
             nerab ee onom y i a d ti i reas ei m i
       c          on            h     ev
        onsum p ti andres earc andd elop m ent (  R&D )
        em     s c
       d and oc urs ; and  ,

   ?      c      ng c     c
       D e reas i e onom i relati       th
                                 ons w i oth er nations.


                               100
                          s raugh t w i e onom i and s oco-
     Th e p ath to w ar i f             th c         c          i
    i c      i fc e or
p ol ti al df i ulti s f C h i                    s i        h
                                na, th us th ere i s l gh t c anc e
th e c           ll          t.
       ountry w i p ursue i It h as as an exam p le th e Sov i t e
Uni            c oul                 e
     on, w h i h c d not balanc th e arm s rac w i i    e th ts
ov ers trai      c                         m ,
           nede onom y . A t th e s am e ti e h ow ev er,f iore gn
                            c     na                  v
p ow ers s h ouldnot exp e t C h i to take a p as s i e s tandi  n
m iil tary op erati              ni                 an
                   ons. A t a m i m um ,th e PRC c engagei       n
m ii          ti     th n ts ord
    l tary ac on w i i i b ers .
                nes       enc es       f     ov
    Ifth eC h i e tend i m ani es ted er th e las t 15 -2      0
              s              l    y                   al   ef
y ears p ers i t,th ePL A w i lonl h av eth ep otenti to d end
                s i fc       m      ne    e     o n      c
th e PRC . It i df i ult to i agi a s c nari i w h i h C h i  na
w ouldp os e a real th reat to th ec onti            ted
                                         nental Uni States or
                 c
ev en to A m eri an m ii         as    n
                        l tary b es i E as t A s ia.
              s
     F or th i reas on,th ei nternationals i        on
                                             tuati ov er th enext
      0              l e eterm i
15 -2 y ears w i l b d                            y          iy
                                  nedlargely b U.S. p ol c . If
         c                  nt, oes           e v       nc
A m eri a s h ow s res trai d not exc s s i ely i reas e i       ts
m ii            oes
    l tary , d not p rom ote uni                       on
                                     lateral exp ansi p lans i    n
 ore gn
f i regi         ons, d           es
                        oes not d troy th e p res ent s y s tem of
           c       ii y oes                n
s trategi s tab l t ,d not engage i an arm s rac ( er     e und
                  d                                or
th ep retext of ep loy m ent ofA B M s y s tem s ,f exam p le)and
  oes
d not p rol f                l ar       onv
                  i erate nuc e andc enti        onal arm am ents ,
             na      l            nc nti          nc
th en C h i w i l h av e no i e v e to i reas e its ow n
m ii          ap i        v                    na
    l tary c ac ty . Ri alry betw een C h i andth e Uni         ted
             ll          gi
States w i th en ori nate only f            c        c        i c
                                     rom e onom i andp ol ti al
        e
s ourc s .
    Ifth e Uni                     ts     e i tate p ol t c l y or
                   tedStates andi alli s dc            ii al
   l tariy
m ii l to oth er c             e t            e        ted
                        ountri s ,i m ay p lac th eUni States
          na
and C h i on th e roadto a new C oldW ar. W e are now
w i        ng         es     ti
   tnes s i th e d truc on of a s eri s of i e      nternati onal
                         i             uc on
agreem ents regardng th e red ti and l m i on of    i tati
     l ar                         ted
nuc e arm am ents . Th e Uni States h as term i         natedi  ts
       c p on n                                   .
p arti i ati i th e A B M Treaty of 19 72 U.S. N ati         onal
   c ty          v s
Se uri A d i er C ond            z      c c ntly c p aredth e
                            oleez a Ri e re e       om
                                                 e   c onc p
p res ent s y s tem ofagreem ents to th e geoc ntri c e t of
          v
th e uni ers e; th e f    uture s y s tem of th e w orld to th e
   l oc ntri s y s tem . C op erni us ,th ough ,h adto f ulate
h ei e        c                   c                     orm



                               101
   s onc p        os        em
h i c e t ofth e c m os andd onstrate i c        s
                                         ts onsi tenc  y
                                                      27
    th ac  ore       ev        c    ti              d
w i f t bef h e rec i edth e re ogni on ofth e w orl .
            a s ten h           th v ng        na
     Rus s i i of c argedw i gi i C h i th e m od          ern
   r,     -ai raf     m     ne
ai anti rc t,and ari arm s th at h elp ed nc       i reas e th e
m ii               al
    l tary p otenti ofth e c                ng    s
                            ountry . M aki th i s tatem ent,
                 res
h ow ev er,requi th e f        ng           ti
                        ollow i s u p p os i ons:
             an          p               na
   1. Rus s i arm s s h i m ents to C h i w ere m eant as
 ef    v                 t         on’ ord
d ensi e tools to p rotec th e nati s b ers .
      .      n
    2 Ch i a d                ts                           i
                    oes n ot i elf p os s es s th e cap ac ty to
        ac        ts    re     c
m anuf ture i enti s p e trum ofm ii                   p
                                            l tary equi m ent. It
           fes
als o tes ti i to th e reluc     e             nes      ers p
                            tanc ofth e C h i e lead h i to
                     e     ,n     oi        e om
enter an arm s rac and i so d ng,to b c ed end on   ep     ent
        l tary -i us tri c p lex.
th e m ii        nd     al om
                   d nt     gh     s
    F orm er Pres i e D w i t E i enh ow er s p oke of th e
       ons p
relati h i betw een a c          s       ers p       ts
                          ountry ’ lead h i andi arm s
p rod         n
      ucers i h i f               d
                    s arew ell ad res s . H e w arn ed of a
   l tary -i us tri c p lex th at dc
m ii        nd     al om            i tates b     ef
                                             oth d ense and
 c        c iis
e onom i p ol c e .
       i
    N e th er th e Uni                                oul
                       ted States nor th e USSR c d av oi        d
    h
suc a s i   tuati on, h ow ev er. Th e Uni  ted States h as n ot
       e e          ons         e             or
exp eri nc dth e c equenc s ,th ough ,f tw o reas ons: (         1)
   gh
h i generalec           c         al,     2 litary -i us tri
                  onom i p otenti and( )m i             nd       al
  orp
c orati               uc ng i        fed om         i e
           ons p rod i dv ers i i c m odti s , s elli           ng
b                l tary andto c v ii
  oth to th e m ii                                      e
                                  i l ans. In th e Sov i t Uni  on,
              i                   uc rs
th ough , a dktat of th e p rod e of m ii                  p
                                               l tary equi m ent
            n
resultedi th e ec          c
                    onom i w eaknes s ofth e c          s     v
                                                 ountry ’ p ri ate
   c           und y              uc on,
s e tor, a red anc ofp rod ti andth at p rod ti s         uc on’
low quali .ty
         s        be      e
     Iti p laus i l to v i w th enationalA B M s y s tem p rop os ed
  y                    m ni
b th e B us h ad i s trati                     on
                                   on as a c ces s i    on to th e
m ii         nd      al om                   c       c
    l tary -i us tri c p lex of A m eri a, w h i h s tand to    s
      i      s
p roft s ub tanti   ally from th e und        ng.
                                       ertaki Th ey p ref not er
to s p eak ab   out th e b         fc v
                          attle efe ti enes s ofth e s y s tem , but
                 nt                s
rath er to p oi at th e nonexi tent th reat ofN orth K orean
      l ar                 na,               ev
nuc e w eap ons . C h i th ough ,p erc i es th e c             on
                                                         reati of
              c
th e A m eri an nati             -m s l       ed        if
                       onal anti i s i e s h i l v ery dferently .

                               102
            l tary p ol c ofth e Uni States w i l s h ap e th at
    Th e m ii         iy            ted          l
       na.                  s v           s le      ed t l
ofC h i Ifm om entum i gi en to th e m i s i s h i l ,i w i l
                    nes        n tute a f
p rov oke th e C h i e to i s ti         ull-s cale m iil tary -
 nd       al om          ap             uc ng
i us tri c p lex c able of p rod i th ous and of           s
roc          rc t,                          s     c
    kets , ai raf and tanks. Sh ould th i oc ur, i w i l t     l
                              s
h eav ily s tres s C h in a’ econ om ic bas e, y et th e
       orm     on s
transf ati i p os s i le. b
                                               i
     In th e early 19 80s , th e auth or s tudedat th e M i  litary
    ad                       f             e             e
A c em y ofG eneral Staf ofth e Sov i t A rm edF orc s . H ere
h e learnedth e th ree m ajor s trategi z                    e
                                         c ones ofth e glob : th e
                        th                    e        F
W es t,th eSouth ,and eE as t. Th eSov i t A rm ed orc s h ade
                            ap i
th e res ources an d c ab lities n eces s ary f s uc     or       h
          ons                                  , oes
op erati . Th e PL A ,on th e oth er h and d not h av e th e
  ap ii y          nk                      d
c ab l t to th i ofth eaters outs i e ofth e A s i Pac fca      ii
      on.     o       nk                 ted
Regi I d not th i th at th e Uni States andi alli s       ts     e
            e                      ng       h     blte
s h ouldv i w th e PL A as h av i suc cap a i i i s — a f       act
             d ea        nto c              ore
th at s h oul b t ken i ac ount bef h ard ng f i     eni ore gn
    iy        nst
p ol c agai C h i    na.
               orm     on      nes
    Th etransf ati ofC h i em ii                 oc ne
                                        l tary d tri and e    th
 om at      ni          i        f e h
c b trai ng ofth e r arm ed orc s c arac z ac   teri e ountry
     ng         h       gh
try i to reac a h i er lev el of c enti  onv      onal m iil tary
 ap ii i s         s   v ous y    cs         or
c ab l t e . It i ob i l ne e s ary f C h i to reac na           t
      n                   ut
agai s t aggres s ors , b not alw ay s th rough m i i      l tary
        ons        und         s                  d c p on
op erati . Th ef am ental ofs trategy and e e ti are
   th
w i good                 as             s
           reas on th e b es of“p eop le’ w ar” at th es trategi c
lev el.

C H A PTE R 4 - E N D NOTE S

                   tob r
   1. Re i Ri ao,Oc e 9 ,19 9 5 .
        nm n b

    .                   f nse n 000,B e ji Oc e 2
   2 C h i N at onal D e e i 2
          na   i                       i ng, tob r 000,p. 6 .

    . bd
   3 I i .,p p . 6 -7.

   4 . I i .,p p . 12
        bd           .

   5 . Re i Ri ao.
         nm n b

                     i ng, c m e
   6 . ITAR-TA SS,B e ji D e e b r 9 ,19 9 8.


                               103
    7. I i .
        bd

    8. I i .
        bd

                      i ng,     3
    9 . ITAR-TA SS,B e ji M ay 2 ,19 9 6 .

    10. K rasnay a Zv e d July 11,19 9 5 .
                       z a,

    11. Zarub z noev oe
             eh        nnoe oboz ni ,9 ,19 9 4 .
                               re e

      .          ow tz                m             s i     s l
    12 Paul W olf i , Prep ared tes ti ony on B alli t c M i s i e
   ens ,      , 001.
D ef e July 12 2

      . TAR-TA SS. B e ji D e e b r 9 ,19 9 8.
    13 I              i ng, c m e

    14 . P. K am ennov ,M i i a -Te h nologi al A sp e t ofC h i s D e e
                           l t ry  c        c         cs        na’ f nse
                        d
     e z on, M ol ov a: Intern ati
M od rni ati                                           ati     or
                                        onal F ound on f E lection
      c s 001,p. 19 .
Serv i e ,2

    15 . C h i s N ati
              na’             f ns n 000,p . 18.
                      onal D e e ei 2

    16 . I i .,p . 19 .
          bd

    17. P. K am ennov ,“PRC M ii                  t on n      ”
                                 l tary C ons truci i 19 9 0s , Prob y
                                                                    lem
                        ,
D al go V ostoka,V ol. 3 19 9 7.
    ne

    18. C h i s N ati
             na’                             4
                             f ns n 000,p . 2 .
                     onal D e e ei 2

                      4 5
    19 . I i .,p p . 2 -2 .
          bd

     0. b d       7-3
    2 I i .,p p .3 8.

     1. TAR-TA SS,B e ji D e e b r 10,19 9 8.
    2 I              i ng, c m e

      2
     2 . M i tary a t v i i s of c e p orary C h i s e A rm y , Part 2
            li      ci te         ont m           ne                  ,
   i ng,           6 .
B e ji 19 89 ,p . 3 2

     3
    2 . Th e C h i Quart rly ,No. 14 6 ,June 19 9 6 .
                  na    e

    4 bd
    2.Ii .

    5 TAR-TA SS,B e ji D e e b r 10,19 9 8.
    2.I            i ng, c m e

     6
    2 . C h i s N ati
             na’             f ns n 000,p . 3
                     onal D e e ei 2         8.

    7.         y
   2 Rem arks b C ond     z c
                     oleez a Ri eat th e N ati                ,
                                              onalPres s C lub July
  , 001.
12 2


                                   104
                   S
PA RT II: C H IN A ’ B A L L ISTIC M ISSIL E S
 A N D E A ST A SIA N R E A C TION TO U.S.
    M ISSIL E D E F E NSE IN ITIA TIV E S




                     105
                         C H A PTE R 5



    C H IN E SE B A L L ISTIC M ISSIL E F ORC E S
 IN TH E A G E O F G L OB A L M ISSIL E D E F E NSE :
         C H A L L E NG E S A N D RE SPONSE S

                       M ark A . Stokes



INTROD UC TION

        nc          ay            i
     Si e th e d s of Sunz and b y ond nati e      ,     ons h av e
              ef
p urs ued d enses agai             f    v
                            nst ofensi e w eap ons . Naturally ,
           b          v            i        s c s ls n
s p arked y th e ad ent ofth efrs t balli ti m i s i e i W orl      d
W ar II,i            n ef i            nst       s c s les
           nteres t i d endng agai balli ti m i s i ov er
                     e ad          nc        s gni i antly . Tod ,
th ep as t s ev erald c es h as i reas ed i fc                   ay
          c       onv
s trategi andc enti              alli c s l s            h
                           onal b s ti m i s i e p os ec allenges
             ted
to th eUni States and i nati to ts     onal i nteres ts around e th
        .                         es     ti     W
w orld W eap ons of m as s d truc on ( M D ) and th e r            i
                ei           e gni i ant p orti
m eans of d l v ery p lac s i fc                  ons of th e U.S.
p op ulati             s                         n
            on at ri k. Th es e s y s tem s , i th e h and of  s
                                  l o
gov ernm ents th at are h os ti e t U.S. nati       onal i nteres ts ,
  h                 c ty         e      f e s
c allenge th es e uri ofalli s and ri nd . No sy s tem exi ts    s
     ay         s ap          ef i
tod th at i c able ofd endng U.S. terri            tory andonl a y
 i ted ap b l t          s           c      e        ri nd
l m i c a i i y exi ts to p rote t alli s andf e s ,as w ell
           orc s ep
as U.S. f e d loy edov ers eas .
          d                  ng
    To ad res s th egrow i p rol f           on    alli c s l s
                                     i erati ofb s ti m i s i e
                   d
andW M D ,Pres i ent G eorgeW . B us h h as s et out on a p ath
     i      alli c s l ef                           c
to feld b s ti m i s i e d enses to p rote t th e Uni           ted
          ts orc s                         e        ri nd
States , i f e ov ers eas , andalli s andf e s . A t th e
         m ,
s am e ti e th e Uni                               uc ts
                       tedStates s eeks to red e i nuc e       l ar
                                  b        e        l ar
ars enal to th e“low es t p os s i lenum b r ofnuc e w eap ons.”
         s l ef
U.S. m i s i e d ense p rogram s are d i    es gnedto c ounter th e
    s ng               ng
exi ti and grow i s h ort, m edum , and i i                    i
                                                      nterm edate
          s l h                       e        ri nd
range m i s i et reats to our alli s andf e s andd l ed    ep oy

                                107
 orc s                                              c    i e
f e ; as w ell as th e long-range th reat to A m eri an c ti s
       s                     z
th at i jus t ov er th e h ori on.
                   s      lc
      Th ePeop le’ Rep ubi ofC h i (            s onc rned
                                    na PRC )i c e            about
                    ep oy      al s l ef
U.S. p lans to d l a glob m i s i e d ense arc i ture.   h tec
            i ng’         c v , v             es      s l ef
F rom B e ji s p ers p e ti e e en a m od t m i s i e d ense
s y s tem c      h        ous m i ati         or       a ii y
           ould av es eri i p l c ons f th ev i b l t ofi        ts
nuclear d                     or ts             i
              eterrent and f i exp andng i entory of  nv
  onv
c enti                            i               alli c s l s
           onal s h ort and m edum range b s ti m i s i e
(                         . i ng’           e
 SRB M s andM RB M s ) B e ji s anxi ty ov er m ai             ni
                                                          ntai ng
 ts
i nuc e d                  s
          l ar eterrent i not new . D ev elop m ent of m i s i s le
   ef
d en s e counterm eas ures d                ac
                                   ates b k at leas t to th e
    d                      e
m i -19 80s ,w h en a s eri s ofres p ons es to th e U.S. Strategic
       en        ti v      SD
D ef s e In i ati e ( I) w ere c                           .
                                           ontem p lated Th es e
               nc ud            or
res p onses i l ed p lans f a s i fc     gni i ant exp ansi ofon
      na’
C h i s nuc e il ar nterc onti          alli c s l orc .
                              nental b s ti m i s i e f e
                       s h
    Th e auth or ofth i c ap ter exam i              s
                                        nes th e PRC ’ s trategic
                alli c s l ev
andth eater b s ti m i s i e d elop m ent andth e grow i      ng
           alli c s les
role of b s ti m i s i as an i               om
                                    ntegral c p onent ofPRC
c       i                       s       ef
 oerc v e s trategy . U.S. m i s ile d en s e p rogram s are
outli        n     er          d          cs
       ned i ord to p rov i e th e ne e s ary c      ontext f  or
     s          i us on             d
sub equent ds c s i ofth e w i e range ofPRC tec ni al     h c
                           erw
res p onses th at are und ay . Th es e c  ounterm eas ures are
i        ed        erc            i i a nd litary utii y of
 ntend to und ut th e p ol t c l a m i                     lt
          s l ef
U.S. m i s i e d ens e p rogram s .
             d    ng            h c
    In ad res s i PRC tec ni al res p ons es to U.S. m i s i    s le
  ef                av              n     er. rs
d enses , th ree c eats are i ord F i t, th i ds c s i  s i us on
d                         ly m                       s
  oes n ot neces s ari i p ly th at U.S. m i s ile d en s e   ef
                       v         y         ev        nes
p rogram s are m oti ated b a p erc i edC h i e th reat to
                         .            s l ef
th e U.S. h om eland U.S. m i s i e d ense p rogram s are
  ri        y
d v en b rogue nati                 p        th i ted
                           ons equi p edw i l m i num b rs of  e
        v             s c           alli c s l s
relati ely uns op h i ti ated b s ti m i s i e , as w ell th e
          c        c i entalRus s i or C h i elaunc . W h i e
p ros p e ts ofan a c d                an       nes         h      l
   s l ef                          cs     l ri        y
m i s i e d enses are not ne e s ariy d v en b a p erc i ed    ev
                  i ng’         k c
PRC th reat,B e ji s trac re ordofp rol f                ng
                                                 i erati balli tis c
   s                     h
m i s ile-related tec nology to rogue s tates — to i l e      nc ud
c                        s        ti
 ounterm easures — i a legi m ate c e      onc rn.



                               108
        c ly ef               nst         c s ls
    Se ond ,d ense agai ballis ti m i s i e ,p arti ularly  c
                                     res
th e s h orter-range th reats ,requi an i     ntegratedap p roac      h
con s is ting of s u rv iv able com m an d c trol,    , on
 om
c m uni ati  c ons,andb                                             v
                           attle m anagem ent s y s tem s ; p as s i e
  ef           h          eni              d ov
d ense suc as h ard ng andrap i rec ery m easures ;
   ti      alli c s l ef                    es         s ls n
ac v eb s ti m i s i ed enses th at d troy m i s i e i th e
  oos
b t,m i -c          ,            nal             l gh
            d ours e andterm i p h as es offi t; andattac             k
op erati  ons i     ed                              alli c s le
               ntend to s u p p res s th e us e ofb s ti m i s i
 orc s         i       e     s h         oc         y
f e at th e r s ourc . Th i c ap ter f us es onl on th eac v e   ti
 om                s le ef
c p onent ofm i s i d ense.
      Fi             na’          ti          s le ef
        nally , C h i s op p os i on to m i s i d enses of i      ten s
   e
v i w edth rough th e c          ti       s           w
                           ogni v e p ri m ofTai an. Th eref ,       ore
      c al          on s      e                   ons p
s p e i attenti i p lac don th e relati h i betw een th e
  ev                   s l ef                 th i
d elop m ent ofm i s i ed enses and e r p otenti us ei a     al       n
      w            t onfi t, nc t s
Tai an Strai c l c s i e i i w i i th i c      th n     s ontext th at
     i ng        ev           ev                    s l ef
B e ji p erc i es U.S. d elop m ent ofm i s i e d ens e. Th e
        s        ng                          c alli c s l s
PRC ’ grow i ars enal of s trategi b s ti m i s i e and
 nc        ngl c urate andleth al th eater b s ti m i s i e
i reas i y a c                                        alli c s l s
                    i              c ty tuati i th e Tai an
th reatens to ds rup t th e s e uri s i             on n            w
        t        i t
Strai and l m i U.S. f              om         ti          d
                              reed of ac on s h oul th e PRC
                         orc o         v     if       e
res ort to th eus eoff et res ol edferenc s w i Tai an.    th      w
                 s    b      on             PL
Th e Peop le’ L i erati A rm y ( A ) of C h i h as an      na
           i     nv
exp andng i entory of c enti       onv               alli c
                                            onal b s ti m i s i ,s les
 i            th
l nkedw i oth er f s of corm             i       rp            c oul
                                    oerc v e ai ow er, w h i h c d
   v       i ng       ei v
gi e B e ji a d c s i e ed i any f ge n                   onfi t th
                                                  uture c l c w i
      w                   i c
Tai an. F rom a p ol ti al andm i                        ci         s le
                                         litary p ers p e t v e,m i s i
  ef                           erm ne
d enses th reaten to und i th e PRC ’ b s ti m i s i s alli c s le
“trum p c .” ard

PRC B A L L ISTIC M ISSIL E D E V E L OPM E NT

                  e        l        ts alli c s l orc s
    Th ePRC reli s h eav i y up on i b s ti m i s i ef e —
            c           le             or eterrenc , c
th e PL A Se ondA rti l ry C orp s — f d                   i
                                                   e oerc on,
          i
andw arfgh ti          th        ore gn      s    e    i ng s
               ng. W i s om e f i as s i tanc , B e ji i
        i       m     erni i ts i ted nv
exp andng and od zng i l m i i entory ofnuc e              l ar
  alli c s l s
b s ti m i s i e andi c          nui        ep oy nc
                          s onti ng to d l i reas i       ngly
   c                   onv
ac urate andleth al c enti            alli c s l s
                               onal b s ti m i s i e op p os ite
    w
Tai an. Its s m all interc onti         alli c s le IC
                               nental b s ti m i s i ( B M )


                                 109
 orc         d
f e p rov i es a m odc                              ati
                          i um of as s ured retali on s h oul     d
Ch i         f                    k.
     na s u f er nuclear attac Th e Secon d A rtillery ’          s
 onv
c enti           alli c s le orc s e om ng
           onal b s ti m i s i f ei b c i not only an
 m
i p ortant i                       h     c nti d on, b
              nstrum ent of p s y c ologi al i m i ati          ut
als o a p otenti      ev       ng orc
                ally d as tati f e ofm i                 l ty
                                              litary utii . Th e
     l ar
nuc e and c entionv              s l uid          s      ng
                         onal m i s i e b l up i taki p lac       e
        les            ale
regard s ofth e s c ofany f                         s le ef
                                    uture U.S. m i s i d ense
    h tec                   s on       s l ef
arc i ture or th e p rov i i ofm i s i e d enses to Tai an.   w
A 19 9 8 U.S. D ep artm ent ofD ef   ense rep ort as s ertedth at
     na’       e         s l nd
C h i s s p ac andm i s ie i us try p rob             l
                                             ably w i l h av e th e
 ap i             uc
c acty to p rod eas m any as 1,           alli c s l s n
                                     000 b s ti m i s i e i th e
next d c e.1
        e ad
               s         c      l ar oc ne s
    Th e PRC ’ s trategi nuc e d tri i bas ed on th e
concep t of lim i   ted d                    ii
                          eterren ce— th e ab l ty to i f n lict
      c      l am                      n
unac ep tab e d age on an enem y i a retali      atory s tri ke.
     na’      l ar orc s                  ei v
C h i s nuc e f e generally are b l e ed to f          ollow a
c                                                 on e
 ounterv alue s trategy th at targets p opulati c nters .
     na        fc ent      l ar                ap
C h i h as s ufi i nuc e w eap ons to h old p roxi atelym
      0   li          iz           s
15 -2 m i l on U.S. c ti ens at ri k,or ab                e
                                          out 5 -10 p erc nt of
th e total U.S. p opulati 2
                         on.
           n s         m              z on or alli c
      C h i a’ p ri ary organ i ati f b s ti m i s ile              s
            h      ev                        uc on s
res earc , d elop m ent, and p rod ti i th e C h i                     na
                                on’     rs     ad
A eros p ace C orp orati s F i t A c em y . Th e F i t                rs
    ad                                     na      ad
A c em y , als o know n as th e C h i A c em y of L aunc                 h
       h             C        , on s
Tec nology ( A L T) c s i ts of an ov erall d i and         es gn
s y s tem s i             on ep
               ntegrati d artm ent, 13 res earc i         h nsti   tutes ,
            ac e             c              b or
and7 f tori s w h i h are res p ons i le f engi , c        nes ontrol
     h
tec nol ,i                al                  s            als
            ogy nerti s y s tem s ,w arh ead ,m ateri ,tes ti         ng,
               h           th             7,
andlaunc ers . W i m ore th an 2 000 p ers onnel,th e F i t            rs
    ad           s                      h         ev
A c em y i th e larges t res earc andd elop m ent (               R&D )
           z on          th n
organi ati w i i th e C h i                            e
                                       na A eros p ac C orp orati      on
 C          .      ts             i                    rs
( A SC ) In i w ork on sol ds y s tem s ,th e F i t A c em y i ad         s
  ep
d end                                     ad        n
            ent up on th e F ourth A c em y i H oh h ot, I          nner
            i or ts           i                 s
M ongol a,f i s ol dm otors . C A L T i als o s up p orted b             y
insti                  ac e
         tutes andf tori s s ub i  ordnatedto v ari          as
                                                       ous b es d     eep
 nsi e         na.                  as
i d C h i Oneofth es eb es ,th eSanji                           e
                                                     ang Sp ac G roup
 06                  n        e      nc ,          ev
( 6 B as e) i H ub i p rov i e h as d elop ed i ow n            ts


                                  110
 om           s c s l
c p lete balli ti m i s i e s y s tem ,th e 3     lom
                                             00-ki eter D F -11
    ts       l
andi 6 00 ki om eter v ari  ant,th e D F -11A .
         ay             rs    ad        s            h
     Tod , th e F i t A c em y ’ res earc andd elop m ent      ev
          e             ev                    ng ts
res ourc s are d oted to en s uri i nuc e balli ti           l ar         s c
    s l orc
m i s i ef erem ai a v i   ns    abled                n      ac
                                        eterrent i th ef eofm i s i e   s l
  ef                                             n        e
d enses . C A L T andth e 06 6 B as e i H ub i p rov i e are         nc
lev eragi g fn                                   n
                   oreign tech n ology i ord to ach iev e er
            ous       v     e n c           y
trem end ad anc s i ac urac . A t th e s am e ti e th ey           m ,
       i       f ng                   s         i         s c s les
are dv ers i y i th e p ay load ofth e r balli ti m i s i to
 nc              i            ty
i reas e th e r leth ali . C A L T and th e PL A are als o
        ni            d
exam i ng a w i erange ofc          ounterm easures to ens ure th e r       i
  alli c s l orc                     ns f c v
b s ti m i s i e f e rem ai efe ti e as m i s i e d enses   s l ef
                u
are in trod ced in to th e A s ia-Pac f c region . K eyii
        z ons res p onsi le f te h ni al c
organi ati                    b or c c                  ounterm easures
 nc ud              s              ng                   s
i l eC A L T’ 4 th Planni D ep artm ent ( y s tem s d i ;             es gn)
                                                   w
th e 1 4 th R es earch In s titu te ( arh ead ay load             /p
                                   rd
  ev              ;        th
d elop m ent) and e703 Res earc Ins ti         h                m
                                                        tute( ateri )    als .
                                               ng
C A L T andth e 06 6 B as e are w orki on no les s th an si                 x
          h          ev
res earc andd elop m ent p rogram s th at w i i reas e th ell nc
            z,           ii y     c      y                v ii y
range, s i e m ob l t , ac urac , and s urv i ab l t of th e
    c           l e s nv                    alli c s l s
Se ondA rti l ry ’ i entory of b s ti m i s i e . M any of
                              en           e
th es e p rogram s h av e b e plac don an ac eleratedR&D  c
s c ed s i e M ay 19 9 9 .3
   h ule nc

                       s i     s
Intercontinental B alli t c M i s iles

              s    s ng
    Th e PRC ’ exi ti IC B M f ec             s      i d ueled
                                  orc onsi ts ofl qui -f
         C                      C     )                 i
D F-5 ( SS-4 ) and D F -4 ( SS-3 s y s tem s . M ob le, s ol d    i
f                   l                     d
 ueledIC B M s w i l augm ent th es e ol er s y s tem s ov er th e
                          c          le
next 5 y ears . Th e Se ond A rti l ry c     urrently p os s es s es
          m       0                           ap l
ap p roxi ately 2 D F -5 IC B M s th at arec ab eoftargeti       ng
         ati n            ted             s i       s
any loc on i th e Uni States . Th i fgurei exp ectedto
            4                ew                   s     ng
grow to 2 ov er th e next f y ears . C A L T i w orki on an
 m                on
i p rov ed v ers i of th e D F -5 th at c             nc
                                                ould i orp orate
       p e nd         ent               c M
m ulti l i ep end reentry v eh i le ( IRV ) tec nol .   h     ogy
      oy                            000-kiom eter range D F -4
D ep l m ent ofat leas t tw elv e 6 ,       l
 C       )          e      n         d
( SS-3 IC B M s b gan i th e m i -19 70s . W es tern s ourc s     e
 ndc                              , i d ueled m i s i e are
i i ate th at th es e tw o s tage l qui f              s ls


                                    111
  i b                    e ri es         er
ds tri uted am ong th re b gad und th e 5 4 B as e i      n
              nc ,          n                        nc ,
H enan prov i e 5 5 B as e i w es tern H unan p rov i e and
5 6 B as e i Qi aip rov i e 4
            n ngh         nc .
         na’ i d ueledIC B M f e w i l b augm entedb
    C h i s l qui f                  orc     l e                 y
      i      i f      s           th n
m ob le,s ol d ueled y s tem s w i i th enext5 y ears . A tleas t
            e                  na ouldd l up to 100 new
one s ourc alleges th at C h i c           ep oy
                    h
landor s ea-launc edIC B M s ov er th e next 15 y ears . Th es e
                 nc ud            1,            ed
new s y s tem s i l e th e D F-3 an extend range D F -3         1,
                                                     5
              as        on              1,          .
anda s ea-b edv ers i ofth e D F-3 th e JL -2 Th e D F-3         1
 s         i -f     ,                            s le th
i a s ol d ueled th ree s tage nuclear m i s i w i an
8,         l               ,
   000-ki om eter range s uf i i fcent to s tri  ke targets i   n
         i
H aw ai,G uam ,A las ka,ands om e p orti    ons ofnorth w es tern
Uni                          c s ul        1 l gh
     ted States . Tw o s uc e s f D F -3 fi t tes ts w ere
  ond tedi 19 9 9 and2
c uc          n                           or ep
                            000. Slatedf d loy m ent bef      ore
2 005 , th e D F -31 ev en tually w ill rep lace th e D F - 4
i           i           alli c s le IRB           .
 nterm edate range b s ti m i s i ( M s ) Th e D F-3 i        1 s
     m
es ti atedto carry a s i  ngle w arh eadandc           nc
                                               ouldi orp orate
            on d ncudng e oy                 h f
p enetrati ai s ,i l i d c s andc af. A t leas t 10-2            0
       1    s l s an e xp c                         orc
D F-3 m i s i e c b e e tedto enter th e f e ov er th e
                   fcent         i       ri e th
next 5 y ears ,sufi i to outft oneb gad w i a noti           onal
s truc                       h
       ture of 9 -16 launc ers as s i  gned to th ree or f    our
b attali .6
         ons
      Tw o v ari                     1              er ev
                 ants ofth e D F-3 als o are und d elop m ent.
    rs s                 ed            on             1 th
F i t i an extend rangev ers i ofth eD F -3 w i a range
                    ,        l
of at leas t 12000 ki om eters . Th i l    s onger range m i s i s le,
                          1A i          l ee            th n
know n as th e D F -3 ,l kely w i l b t s tedw i i th e next
                             ll                 m
s ev eral y ears and w i be targetedp ri ariy agai    l       nst th e
       ted                         s
Uni States . Jap anes e ob erv ers note th at th e D F-3 i       1A s
 n                                   v    e
i s om e res p ects m ore ad anc d th an s om e Rus s i             an
                  h                  -
s y s tem s , s uc as th e Top ol M . A s m any as 10 D F -3        1A
IC B M s c            e i ed y 010. A n oth er v ari
             ould b feld b 2                               ant of th e
         1—             —    ll
D F-3 th e JL -2 w i be launc edf       h              m     nes
                                              rom sub ari . Th e
            s l
JL -2 m i s i e w as s uc e s f                   n
                               c s ully tes ted i early 2     001. A
        ii                   m    ne         l e qui
m odfedTy p e 9 4 s ub ari th at w i l b e p p edw i 16          th
                      ly
tubes alleged w ill carry th e JL - 2 Projected f .                 or
  ep                y 005
d loy m ent b 2 , th e 8,                   lom
                                      000-ki eter range m i s i   s le
            e be o          ke          n
w ould b a l t s tri targets i A las ka,H aw ai,andth e     i
w es tern p art of th e Uni       ted States w h en op erati i ng n

                                112
C h i ec tal w aters .7 Indc ons exi t th at th e ti eli
     nes oas                i ati   s               m   ne
    i th       1, ts
to feld eD F -3 i longer rangev ari         th
                                   ant,and eJL -2w as
ac eleratedi M ay 19 9 9 .8
   c         n

      1
D F -2 M RB M Sy s tem .

                  s      nc p             s
    Th e PRC ’ p ri i al M RB M i th e s ol df     i ueledD F -2    1
 C        .            h        ev
( SS-5 ) Res earc andd elop m ent on th e D F -2 b gan i  1 e       n
                      s l          i         n                 ld
19 6 7 andth e m i s i ew as frs t tes tedi 19 85 . A s s em b e at
       07
th e 3 F ac             n         ng,
                tory i Nanji th e i ti i              uc on
                                          ni al ntrod ti ofth e
   s l nto                  m           m               e
m i s i ei an exp eri entalregi ent took p lac as early as
            th            l                             m
19 9 1. W i a 6 00-ki ogram w arh eadandan es ti atedC E P
                          ,        l
of700 m eters ,th e2 100 ki om eter rangeD F-2 i c    1 s urrently
      p        or      l ar s ons only . A longer range v ers i
equi p edf nuc e m i s i                                          on
                1,        ,         l
ofth e D F -2 th e 2 5 00 kiom eter range D F-2 M od 2 i1        ,s
            ly      er ev
rep orted und d elop m ent. B oth th e D F-2 M od1 and 1
             i                   s     ef
M od 2 l kely h av e m i s ile d en s e counterm eas ures ,
 nc udng
i l i end                          c e oy                    i
                   o-atm os p h eri d c s th at w eretes ted n 19 9 5
and19 9 6 .9
                    ndc ons th at a c enti
      Th ere are i i ati                    onv      onally arm ed
v ari                     1—            1C           en
       ant of th e D F-2 th e D F -2 — h as b e und ay          erw
   nc                          s                    op
s i e at leas t 19 9 5 . Th i s y s tem m ay ad t a term i          nal
     d e
gui anc p ac    kageth at us es on-b         om
                                      oardc p uters to c     orrelate
          m          th      m
s toredi ages w i land arks andth at th eoreti ally c d   c       oul
    h e       i ular error p rob b l t ( E P)of5 0 m eters or
ac i v e a c rc                    a ii y C
better.10 Suc a c ability naturally w ould requi a
                 h       ap                                       re
                l                 c
m aneuv erab e reentry v eh i le. Th e reentry s p eed of th e
        1C s i            e as                       e
D F-2 i l kely to b f t enough to p reclud engagem ent
  y           e     s l ef                        h
b low er-ti r m i s i e d ense s y s tem s , suc as th e PA C -3      .
        p       th
E qui p edw i a c enti  onv      onal w arh eadas large as 1, 00   5
ki                       1C ouldf e d end on Tai an to
    logram s ,th e D F-2 c          orc ef ers                w
m ov e tow ardm i -cd ours e or up p er term i                    s le
                                                 nal p h as e m i s i
  ef            h                       gh      tud
d enses ,suc as th e Th eater H i A lti e A rea D ef              ense
 TH                        s     as m d ours ei
( A A D )s y s tem and ea-b ed i -c                        e
                                                    nterc p tors . A s
m any as tw o c entionv                  1 ri es ould b i
                             onal D F-2 b gad c                   e n
          on e ore 010.11
op erati b f 2
       c              ts           sz       th   m ted b l t
    B e aus eofth ei w arh ead i e and e li i a i i y of
         e     s l ef
low er ti r m i s i e d ense s y s tem s to engage longer-range

                                113
            nc         on            nal d e
M RB M s ,i orp orati ofa term i gui anc s y s tem c d        oul
          gni i ant m i
h av e s i fc                  m i ati                gh
                       litary i p l c ons . Th e h i reentry
          gni i antly red e th e f
s p eeds i fc             uc s             nt
                                    ootp ri ofth e area th at i  s
  ef ed y
d end b term i i                e          h              .
                     nal nterc p tors ,s uc th e PA C -3 A h i  gh
                 , om i         th
reentry s p eed c b nedw i a p enetrator w arh ead als o    ,
c         e fc v             n
  ould b efe ti e agai s t h ard        ened targets , suc ash
intelli     e ac l t e                  c
        genc f ii i s and s trategi /op erati            om
                                                onal c m and
  e                  1C ould als o range U.S. b es i th e
c nters . Th e D F-2 c                               as     n
regi             dti
      on. In ad i on, a term i             d                 th
                                  nally gui ed s y s tem w i a
             ng
m aneuv eri p ay load c            om i ate th e U.S. c
                            ould c p l c                        e
                                                            arri r
                                       12
op erati      n                    ii.
         ons i th e W es tern Pac fc

SRB M s .

             ep                    i    onv
     Th e d loy m ent ofth e frs t c enti                     ri e
                                                onal SRB M b gad
          te      w       n
op p os i Tai an i 19 9 4 m arkeda s i fc                  ep
                                                gni i ant d arture
from th e tradti                             s on
                      i onal role and m i s i of th e Second
A rti  llery . C onv enti                               e om
                          onally arm edSRB M s h av eb c e a key
                            raf               s
tool of PRC s tatec t. Th e PRC ’ exp andng SRB M       i
 nv
i entory i i               ed
                s ntend to d      eter or c     e i ors
                                           oerc ne gh b s uc as h
      w
Tai an . Sh ould B eiji         ng res ort to th e us e of f   orce,
  onv
c enti                          alli c s l s
             onally arm ed b s ti m i s i e , op erati joing ntly
    th                  r      e
w i th e PL A A i F orc andoth er arm eds erv i es , c d  c     oul
              ri c               n    ni nf
s erv e as c ti al enablers i gai ng i orm ati d i    on om nanc   e
an d air an d n av al s u p eriority . Second A rtillery
  onv
c enti              oc ne                    s        i      ng i
             onal d tri s tres s es s urp ri e andds arm i frs t
s tri               n        ni ati     n            ng
     kes to gai th e i ti v e i th e op eni p h as e of a
c l c 13
  onfi t.
             c
    Th e Se ondA rti           s    d
                       llery i s ai to b c                  p
                                          e urrently equi p ed
   th 5
w i 3 0 c entionv                     i b
                      onal SRB M s ds tri uted am ong th ree
  ri es           te     w               e ndc
b gad op p os i Tai an. Ones ourc i i ates th at d ng      uri
annual m eeti              i ai n                      na’
               ngs at B e d h ei A ugus t 19 9 9 ,C h i s s enior
      ers p e i ed               c
lead h i d c d to ac elerate th e p rod ti and       uc on
  ep                        alli c s les
d loy m ent ofenough b s ti m i s i to outft f SRB Mi our
b gad b 2 .14 W es tern sourc s b l e e th e PL A m ay
  ri es y 002                         e ei v
  ep                                       te      w
d loy as m any as 6 5 0 SRB M s op p os i Tai an ov er th e
                             le    w   s    ni
next s ev eral y ears , w h i Tai an’ M i s try of N ati     onal
D ef                     ndc
     ense s tatem ents i i ate th at as m any as 800 SRB M s


                               114
c ould b d loy ed b 2 .15 Th es e m i s i e w ould b
          e ep           y 006                 s ls            e
  i b          i                        ri es n
ds tri uted nto as m any as s ev en b gad i th e2 -2  005 010
  m ram e.16 C h i e w ri ngs i i ate th at af an i ti
ti ef               nes       ti     ndc          ter    ni al
                h
s alv o, launc ers w ouldm ov e to new p re-s urv ey edlaunc  h
si tes w i i th at b gad s as s i
           th n        ri e’         gnedarea of op erations.17
        d            ei e          orc ,
Sh oul th e PRC d c d to us ef e th ePL A i           s
                                                ntend to carry
           h
out s y nc roni ed         h
                  z launc es f           d            i
                                 rom a w i erangeofazm uth s in
     er             ti       s le ef               i
ord to s tres s ac v em i s i d enses andas s oc atedb    attle
m anagem ent s y s tem s .18
            e       i c                l tari       fc v ,
      To b p ol ti ally and m ii ly efe ti e th e PL A ’             s
  onv
c enti                           alli c s l s
             onally arm edb s ti m i s i e m us t surv i e any v
attem p t to i         e            s l n l gh           i    t th n
                nterc p t th em i s i ei fi t; and m p ac w i i
             i             ll am
a s et radus th at w i d age th ei                  ed
                                             ntend target. Th e PL A
 s        ng            m z                    i      th
i s eeki to m axi i e th e leth al radus w i m oreefe ti e      fc v
             s          ni z ts                th m
w arh ead andm i m i e i C E P w i i p rov edgui anc             d e
                  h     ev
s y s tem s . Suc a d elop m ent s trategy i i             ed
                                                  s ntend to red e uc
               e       alli c s l s
th e num b r of b s ti m i s i e requi            red p er target and
                 ni z ollateral d age. Unti C E Ps reac
p erh ap s m i m i e c                    am             l           h
                      t s i fc
5 0-100 m eters ,i i df i ult to h i a s i t             nt.      ore
                                                ngle p oi Th eref ,
                             re
th e PL A w ouldrequi exp endng a c    i             d     l      e
                                               onsi erab enum b r of
     s ls             h
m i s i e p er eac target. A s a general rule, tw o balli ti       s c
     s ls            b          red or            e
m i s i e w ould erequi f a 5 0 p erc nt p rob b l t ofh i a ii y     t
 f                                               th
i th ey h av e a 5 0 m eter C E P; th ree w i a 100 m eter C E P;
         ne th
andni w i a 300 m eter C E P.
     In a future c  onti       y n
                         ngenc i th e A s i      cfc       on,
                                            a-Pa i i regi PL A
     ti      ndc
w ri ngs i i ate i                       gh y c urate SRB M s ,
                        ntent to us e h i l a c
                                k rui        s ls
M RB M s , and land attac c s e m i s i e agai s t U.S.   n
              nc ud         as      n
as s ets ,to i l e key b es i Jap an andai raf c    rc t arri rse
          ng n                   cfc       nes          h
op erati i th eW es tern Pa i i . C h i e res earc ers h av e
 ond ted              v eas b l t        is
c uc extens i e f i ii y s tude ofth e us e ofth eater
  alli c s l s
b s ti m i s i e agai            rc t arri rs . A naly s ts h av e
                           nst ai raf c        e
        h        h    ap ii y         d       re our om
noted ow suc a c ab l t w oul requi f c p onents :
ocean s u rv ei                 d ours e gui an ce; term i al
                   llan ce; m i - c            d               n
    d e                 i a l ontrol s y s tem s to m aneuv er th e
gui anc ; andap p l c b e c
               c                                   v ate
reentry v eh i le to th e target. Prop onents ad oc us e ofa
      al      ti ng               G
glob p os i oni s y s tem ( PS) f m i -c or      d ours e i nertial
c      ci                             li
 orre t ons and th e us e of a m i l m eter w av e s eeker f     or
term i al gui an ce. 19 A w are of th e v uln erability of
         n        d

                                115
    li
m i l m eter w av e s eekers to jam m i  ng, PL A engineers are
          ng
s urv ey i elec         c ounter-c
                  troni c                               E
                                     ounterm eas ure ( C C M )
    h ques to ensure efe ti enes s of term i
tec ni                       fc v                            d
                                                   nally gui ed
                    20
  alli c s l s               dti
b s ti m i s i e . In ad i on to ai raf c           e       nes
                                         rc t arri rs ,C h i e
     ti      ndc                                nc ud
w ri ngs i i ate oth er targets w ould i l e regi           onal
ai rbas es ,nav alf c l t e ,and
                  a ii i s       key C 4 Iand s ti alnod .21
                                              logi c       es

         C
D F -15 ( SS-6 ).

                      s       i -f       ,
    Th e D F-15 i a s ol d ueled 6 00 ki eter SRB M .lom
         ac         y                      s           rep
M anuf turedb C A L T,th eD F -15 ’ p ay load orted h as         ly
          tud ontrol m e h ani m th at p erm i s teeri
an atti e c                    c      s                   ts        ng
                                                  22
c      ci
 orre t ons f                   on
                rom s ep arati to i p ac m                   etac
                                               t. Th e d h able
                  f
w arh ead of ers a m u ch s m aller target th an a
surf e             ace s l                 SC       ,    i
      ac -to-surf m i s i es y s tem ( UD ) and ts p otenti          al
                ii y       d om i ate m i s i d ense rad
m aneuv erab l t w oul c p l c                  s le ef              ar
      ki       om         on
trac ng, c putati s , and i                   e on. A s s um i a
                                        nterc p ti                ng
       nal        c                             l
nom i traje tory at a range of5 00 ki om eters ,th e D F -15
             h          tud
w ouldreac an alti e ofabout 120 kilom eters ,ac i v e a       h e
                                   lom                 c ,
reentry s p eedofabout tw o ki eters p er s e ond andh av e
a fi t ti e of only 6 or 7 m i
    l gh     m                           nutes .23 Som e rep orti   ng
i i ates th e D F -15 c
 ndc                         urrently h as a 100-m eter C E P.24
                          ndc ons th at th e D F-15 h as b e
H ow ev er, th ere are i i ati                                      en
                                                                2 5
 l gh                    c
fi t tes tedto an ac urac ofb   y      etter th an 5 0 m eters .
           i     f ts                 s c s l nv
    To dv ers i y i th eater balli ti m i s i e i entory , th e
        s     d      e ev
PRC i s ai to b d elop i a 1,    ng                  2
                                         000 to 1, 00 ki eterlom
                                 26
               on                            nc nti
range v ers i ofth e D F-15 . Strong i e v es l kely exi ti         s
     ev                   ed                 on
to d elop an extend range v ers i of th e D F -15 . A n
          ed
extend range D F-15 w ould s i f c                           uc
                                         gni i antly red e th e
  ef ed
d end area or “f               nt”         -
                        ootp ri ofland ands ea-b edlow eras
  e       s le ef                      ue       ts
ti r m i s i d en s e s y s tem s d to i reentry s p eed              .
      oy                                       n
D ep l m ent of a longer range D F-15 i South eas t C h i           na
        e i nateth erequi
w ould l m i                                             s le
                              rem ent to tran s p ort m i s i as s ets
             w            t
nearer Tai an,p erm i th e targeti ofOking         naw a f  rom s ites
                       na           ,f
along th e E as t C h i Sea,and i m atedw i a term ith           nally
    dd             ,
gui e p ay load p otenti            orc arri r b
                              ally f e c         e attle group s
 C                  ng              w
( V B G s ) op erati eas t of Tai an to m ov e f       urth er aw ay
from th e area ofop erati .  ons


                                 116
         C
D F -11 ( SS-7).

                     e                y ts
     Th e D F-11— b tter know n b i exp ort d i        es gnator,th e
         C       — s        i                        -m
M -11 ( SS-7) i a s ol d p rop ellant, road ob le SRB M     i
    th        m                   00
w i an es ti atedrange of3 km . Th e m ai ad antage ofn v
                                  s ts b l t
th e D F-11 ov er th e D F-15 i i a i i y to c          arry a larger
          .               e redt
p ay load Som e s ourc s c i th e 3                lom
                                              00-ki eter v ers i   on
                                                               27
    th            l
w i an 800-ki ogram w arh ead              a
                                     and 15 0-m eter C E P. Th e
         s         ac       b               s            ,
D F-11 i m anuf tured y th eC A SC ’ 06 6 B as e als o know n
as th e San ji                                on   as
                 ang Sp ace C orp orati , b ed i H ubei      n
p rov ince. Th e D F-11’ 3  s 00-ki     lom eter range p res en ts
 h            or ti         s l ef              ue
c allenges f ac v e m i s i e d enses d to i b e fi t   ts ri f l gh
  m
ti e of3m i               c       ts l gh
               nutes . B e aus e i fi t w ouldrem ai w i i    n th n
                               e                          e
th e atm os p h ere, up p er ti r s y s tem s w ould b unable to
engage th e 3    00-ki om eter D F-11.28 D ep l m ent of a 6 00
                      l                           oy
   lom              ed               on
ki eter extend range v ers i ofth eD F-11,th eD F -11A
( SS-7 M od2,i rep orted und ay as w ell.29
 C               ) s           ly       erw

U.S. M ISSIL E D E F E NSE PROG RA M S

        i ng e                     or
    B e ji v i w s U.S. p lans f a l m i             s l ef
                                           i tedm i s i e d ense
 ap
c ability as a th reat to th e v i                     ts
                                          ability of i grow i    ng
 nv               nc
i entory of i reas i                c
                           ngly ac urate and leth al b s ti alli c
   s ls          l             s l ef
m i s i e . W h i e U.S. m i s i e d ense p rogram s are not
   cs       l ri         y         ev
ne e s ariy d v en b a p erc i ed PRC th reat, B e ji s      i ng’
 alli c s le ev                                       h
b s ti m i s i d elop m ent andexp ort oftec nologi s to       e
                       nc
rogue s tates h as i reas ed regi       onal i            n    s l
                                               nteres t i m i s i e
 ef                      ri     or         nv
d enses . Th e key d v er f U.S. i es tm ents i m i s i   n    s le
 ef         s           al s l           k y
d enses i a p otenti m i s i eattac b roguenati ,s uc     ons     h
as N orth K orea,I                    i ted
                    raq,or Iran. A l m i nati              ef
                                                   onal d ensei   s
           ed ef
als o need to d end            nst       cd
                          agai an ac i ental or unauth ori ed   z
       an          nes      s            h       c     gh nv
Rus s i or C h i e m i s ile launc , w h i h m i t i olv e
only one or a f                    s         s c    s le ef
                    ew w arh ead . B alli ti m i s i d en s e
       res         , ci       ef
requi lay ered a t v ed ens es th at c i               e        s c
                                              an nterc p tballi ti
   s ls n                        i l gh     1)     oos
m i s i e i all p h as es ofth e r fi t: ( th e b t p h as e ( ),2
   d ours e p h as e,and( )th e term i p h as e.
m i -c                      3              nal




                               117
B oos t Ph as e.

                        e ns             h
      B oos t p h as e b gi at launc andlas ts up to 5 m i            nutes
 or         m ti       qui -f
f a p ri i v eli d uelIC B M or 3m i                       or i ueled
                                                   nutes f s ol df
                       e      uri            oos
s y s tem s . Interc p t d ng th e b t p h as e engages th e
     s l            ts      ts                   l            l gh
m i s i ew h en i i at i m os t v ulnerab es tageoffi t. B oos t
p h as e i        e               es      ti               s l e ore t
           nterc p t enables d truc on ofth e m i s i e b f i
 s
i able to d loy c  ep                                     an
                            ounterm easures and c red e th e       uc
          e
num b r oftargets th at m i -c     d ours e andterm i        nal s y s tem s
m us t engage. Th e key boos t p h as e s y s tem u n d                    er
  ev                 s         rb                  A     .
d elop m ent i th e A i orne L as er ( B L ) E xp eri ental         m
        e as                               er ev
s p ac -b ed s y s tem s are und d elop m ent as w ell.
      nes           e
C h i es ourc s note th at th eA B L s y s tem ,s latedf i ti     or ni al
  em              on
d onstrati as early as 2                        ni al i i n 008,
                                     003andi ti feldng i 2
  oul e e
c db d p loy edto th e th eater ofop erati                  n
                                                       ons i a m atter of
                           ei v
h ours . Th e PRC b l e es th at at leas t one op erati                 onal
  onc p s or             r       i
c e t i f a p ai ofB oe ng 74 7-4 00F A B L ai raf to orb trc t             i
          ri nd
ov er f e ly terri                            l s
                         tory abov e th e c oud at 4 0,      000 f  eet, 9 0
    lom            f
ki eters of th eenem y c t,s c    oas             ng           z or
                                            anni th eh ori on f th e
   um
p l e of m i s i             s ng     ov
                   s les ri i ab e enem y terri             tory . W i ath
        m                                            red l
m axi um las er range ofs ev eral h und ki om eters and
     s on m
m i s i ti e of12                        ac      rc t arri s enough
                          -18 h ours , e h ai raf c            e
 uel or 00                           nst s l s n
f f 2 las er s h ots agai m i s i e i th e b t p h as e        oos
                   s le f                       ow
w h en th e m i s i ofers a brigh t, s l target und h i            er gh
                           3 0
         y        c
aerod nam i s tres s .
                e                  SB      l gh          m
     Th e Sp ac B as ed L as er ( L ) fi t exp eri ent i a       s
  em           on f
d onstrati efort to exp l                 eas b l ty
                                ore th e f i ii ofd troy i es      ng
  alli c              th      gh
b s ti targets w i a h i p ow eredlas er. A c ordng to   c i
C h in es e s ources , at leas t on e arch i      tectu re u n d   er
c     d      on nc ud 0
  onsi erati i l es 3 s atelli , a c  tes                  on
                                                onstellati offv ei
ri        th x         tes     h
   ngs w i s i s atelli eac at 4 0 d              nci
                                          egree i l nati    ons,and
              e
an altitu d of 1,300 kilom eters . Th e 30 s atellite
c           on an ounter m ore th an a 100 SRB M s i a
  onstellati c c                                                n
  -m nute p eri . Suc a s y s tem p rov i es a 24 -h our
2 i               od       h                       d
i       e        blt               d            z alli c s le
 nterc p t cap a i i y andw oul neutrali e b s ti m i s i
s trikes b f       m               on
            e ore i p lem entati of c        ounterm eas ures , to
 n l e                           m      ti
i c ud early releas e s ub uni on s and d              ecoy s . Th e
     nes                               s gh         fc v
C h i e note th at th e SB L als o i h i ly efe ti e agai t      ns


                                   118
 i c      e       -s      te                       m
dre t as c nt anti atelli s y s tem s . A n exp eri ental SB L
                                     31
 oul e e             y          e ad          dti
c d b t s tedearl next d c e. In ad i on,th ere are
       m         erw                 ne      eas b l t
exp eri ents und ay th at exam i th ef i ii y ofs p ac       e
                              32
 as
b edki       c nterc p tors .
         neti i      e

   d
M i -C ours e.

           ng
      D uri th e m i c                         l gh
                         d ours e p h as e of fi t, th e w arh ead
trav els f                       e       d
           reely th rough s p ac outs i eth e atm os p h ere. F or an
               s
IC B M , th i s tage las ts about 20 m i                       ng
                                               nutes , m aki th e
    d ours e th e longes t p h as e of m i s i e fi t. E ngagi
m i -c                                       s l l gh                ng
  alli c s l s n
b s ti m i s i e i th e m i -c                            f
                                   d ours e p h as e ofers s ev eral
    v             or       ef
ad antages f th e d ense. M i -c      d ours e i         e
                                                 nterc p t s oluti ons
   f                 m    or gh               e i on
ofer greater ti e f h i er lev el d c s i m aki to b          ng      e
i                n       om
 ntegratedi th e c m andand c                                       p
                                           ontrol s y s tem . M ulti le
s h oot-l                         ti s e om           b
         ook-sh oot op p ortuni e b c e p os s i le. M i c     d ours e
  ef
d enses m ay b b ed f  e as      arth er aw ay f  rom th e c    ountry
                                                     u
lau n ch in g th e m is s ile, p os s ibly red cin g s y s tem
             i
v ulnerab lity . Th ere are at leas t tw o s y s tem s und           er
  ev                       l e                      s l s uri
d elop m ent th at w i lb able to engagem i s i e d ng th e
    d ours e p h as e offi t: ( land as edexoatm os p h eri
m i -c                      l gh    1)      -b                        c
   ll       ce
ki v eh i l s to c      ounter l onger range IC B M s ; and ( ) a 2
        as d d ours e s y s tem to c
s ea-b e m i -c                                              i
                                             ounter m edum - and
                   alli c s les
s h ort-range b s ti m i s i .
      L and B as e M i - C ours e Th e L andB andM i -C ours e
                    d d              .                         d
            s           nc p
s y s tem i th e p ri i al m i -c   d ours e i           e
                                                  nterc p t s y s tem f or
  ef
d ense of th e Uni                               s on s
                         ted States . Its m i s i i to i               e
                                                                 nterc p t
 nc ng alli c s l                             s
i om i b s ti m i s i e w arh ead outs i e th e earth ’  d                s
atm os p h ere (                    c        es
                   exoatm os p h eri )andd troy th em b f e of y orc
                t.
th e im p ac D uri g f   n      ligh t, th e in tercep tor receiv es
 nf
i orm ati f   on rom a battle m anagem ent,c m and c  om        , ontrol  ,
        om
andc m uni ati              B        )                   ate
                   c ons ( M C 3 s y s tem to up d th e loc on       ati
           nc ng alli c s l , nabi th e ki l v eh i le’
ofth e i om i b s ti m i s i e e                 l ng        l        c s
onb         s                     d f           h        n
       oard ensor s y s tem to i enti y and om ei on th etarget.
Th e landb edi as            e
                       nterc p tor w ouldc          s
                                             onsi t ofa m ulti      -stage
     i                 oos                                  c l
s ol dp rop ellant b ter andan exoatm os p h eri ki l v eh i le         c
 E       .
( K V ) Th ree op ti                e ng
                        ons are b i exam i               or
                                                  nedf th e b ter: oos
th e M i                               om i        on
          nutem an III IC B M ; a c b nati ofoth er exi ti           s ng


                                  119
    i -roc
s ol d ket s y s tem s ; and an enti            oos
                                    rely new b ter. Unti   l
  oos      ev            s om             l gh         l e
b ter d elop m ent i c p lete, E K V fi t tes ts w i l b
 l
fow n on th e Pay l            h      ce PL ,       c s
                    oad L aunc V eh i l ( V ) w h i h i a
  oos
b ter c        s ng
           onsi ti of a M i                  c
                              nutem an II s e ond and th ird
s tage.33
                                 gh y ap l nf
    Th e E K V w ouldus e a h i l c ab e i rareds eeker to
   qui               k
ac re andtrac targets ,andto ds c m i                   e
                                         i ri nate b tw een th e
i        ed           i                     ce
 ntend target (.e.,th e reentry v eh i l )andoth er ob c s ,  je t
     h
s uc as tank f                         e oy        s
                     ragm ents or d c s . Th i enables th e
i        e
 nterc p tor to b l         h         nst    l
                    e aunc edagai a c us ter ofob c and   je ts
     s             d f
sub equently i enti y andi              e
                                  nterc p t th e targeted reentry
       c                   l e            i ri nate p enetrati
v eh i le. Th e s eeker w i lb able to ds c m i                    on
   d        w         s
ai s and arh ead ,th ough i w oul requi as s i tanc f
                                 t      d       re     s     e rom
           -b d         ar                    e
ground as e rad s y s tem s or s p ac -bas ed s ens ors to
   d               om                  s c
ad res s m ore c p lex ands op h i ti atedtargets . Th e E K V
              ev                   n-fi
w ould rec i e one or m ore i l gh t target up d         ates f  rom
                            e                  n     er
oth er groundands p ac -bas eds ens ors i ord to enh anc             e
            a ii y
th ep rob b l t ofi         e ng                       on
                       nterc p ti th etarget. B as ed th i d s ata
        ts                       l       c
andi ow n s ensors , th e ki l v eh i le us es s m all on-b     oard
roc kets to m aneuv er s o as to c d w i th e target.34
                                    olli e th
    In a p rev i     onc p       ni al h tec
                ous c e t,an i ti arc i ture f d ense or ef
               ted                          blt      C ,
ofall 5 0 Uni States ,know n as “C ap a i i y 1” ( 1) w oul    d
        nc ud d oy
h av ei l ed ep l m ent of2 i            e        n       d le
                                 0 nterc p tors i th em i d of
A las ka.35 A n ad i onal 80 i
                  dti               e
                               nterc p tors c       e d 100
                                             ouldb ad ed(
 n
i tercep tors total) to f                               ” C )
                              orm a “C ap ability 2 ( - 2
arc i ture.36 A n ev en m ore ad anc darc i ture ( -3
    h tec                           v     e      h tec      C )
                 d
w ouldh av e ad edands p readi           e
                                   nterc p tors betw een tw o or
m ore s i .37 Tod , h ow ev er, th i grow th p lan i und
          tes        ay               s                 s     er
     e             m       op       h tec                  s le
rev i w . Th e ulti ate s c e or arc i ture ofa U.S. m i s i
  ef                           e eterm i
d ense s y s tem h as y et to b d                    l e as
                                         nedandw i l b b ed
            s ng          c                    m       e i on s
on th e exi ti or p roje tedth reat at th e ti e a d c s i i
m ad  e.
                                                     d
    Se B as e M i - C ours e Th e Sea-B as ed M i -C ours e
       a-    d      d          .
   s l ef                  ui d                              d
m i s i ed ense s y s tem b l s upon th e N av y Th eater W i e
 N                               anc l e
( TW ) p rogram and th e c e l d Nav y A rea D ef          ense
                            d            l
p rogram . Sea-B as ed M i -C ours e w i l us e a h i         l
                                                       t-to-ki l
i      e                    gh                    c      c le—
 nterc p tor— th e SM -3L i t E xo-A tm os p h eri Proje ti


                                120
i                       m ty us
 nsteadof th e p roxi i f edSM -2 B loc IV A th at w ask
  ev         or
d elop ed f th e N av y A rea D ef                                l
                                           ense s y s tem unti th at
                 anc l e n
p rogram w as c e l di D e e b r 2   c m e 001. Th e Sea-B as ed
   d             s l ef
M i -C ours em i s i ed ensep rogram i uni     s          n
                                                      quei th at A egi s
  es               p          th                    s l an
d troy ers equi p ed w i th e SM -3 m i s i e c p atrol a
large area to i        e          s c s l s th
                nterc p t balli ti m i s i e w i out th eneedto
  e ollocated w i th e d end as s et. Th e s h i s c b
b c                 th          ef ed                        p    an e
      ti       orw                     ef ed
p os i oned f ard of th e d end area allow i f                   ng or
                           d
exoatm os p h eric m i - cours e or ev en as cen t p h as e
                   ter           s le ep
engagem ents af th e m i s i d arts th e atm os p h ere. In
  oi
d ng s o, a s i                            d
                 ngle Sea-B as ed M i -C ours e p latf         orm c  an
  ef
d end an area or f                nt        s
                         ootp ri th at i tens of th ous and of      s
           l              ke
s quare ki om eters . L i th e TH A A D s y s tem andth e G B I         ,
th e SM -3 i        e       s
             nterc p tor i a h i            l
                                     t-to-ki l s y s tem th at us es an
 nf                            ni
i rared s eeker and m i ature th rus ters . D ue to s p eed
 i tati       4            c,
l m i ons ( -5 km /s e ) th e SM -3 i i                  ed
                                              s ntend to c       ounter
    m    l       i                alli c s l s
p ri ariy m edum range b s ti m i s i e . A n i ti N TW    ni al
cap ability s h ould be av ailable by th e 2005 - 2010
  m ram e.38
ti ef

L ow er Tier.

                e    s l ef
     L ow er ti r m i s i e d ense s y s tem s i      e         s c
                                                 nterc p t balli ti
    s les i th e term i al p h as e of fi t, w i i th e
m i si        n              n                 l gh       th n
                          tud e ow           lom
atm os p h ere at an alti eb l 100 ki eters ,d ng th e   uri
las t 1 or 2m i           l gh   ep     i
                nutes offi t,d endng up on th erange ofth e
   s l.                     ,          th          e oy
m i s i e Th e w arh ead along w i any d c s or c af,          h f
                                     y      c rag
reenters th e atm os p h ere. A erod nam i d th en prod e      uc s
  if                or or i
dferent beh av i f l gh t as op p os ed to h eav y ob c s .   je t
   c         e ee        gni i antly andm ay b
D e oy s d c l rate s i fc                                   ut
                                                  urn up , b th e
w arh ead d          i                                  ef
               oes ne th er. Th us at reentry th e d ens e c     an
  i ri nate th e w arh ead A t leas t tw o low er ti r s y s tem s
ds c m i                       .                        e
are i         ed
       ntend to c                                        uri
                      ounter s h ort range th reats d ng th e
term i                  l gh                         )
        nal s tage of fi t: 1) TH A A D ; and 2 th e PA C -3
m i s i e 39
   s l.
                                         l e l o
   TH A A D . Th e TH A A D s y s tem w i l b ab e t engage
                           s c s l h              i    e
longer range th eater balli ti m i s i e t reats (.e.,l s s th an
 ,       l           uri
35 00 ki om eters ) d ng th e up p er term i    nal p h as es of


                                 121
 l gh                      al om                  am l
fi t. A s an es s enti c p onent ofa f i y of s y s tem s ,
TH A A D c red an                        e        s ls
                       uce th e num b r of m i s i e th at oth er
term i          ef                                     ng t-to-ki l
          nal d ense s y s tem s m us t engage. Us i h i              l
     h                 es       ts
tec nology to d troy i target, TH A A D c op erate       an
                  y    ut s
autonom ous l , b i requi           red to b i               l
                                              e nterop erab e w i   th
                           ef
oth er low er tier d en s es an d external s en s ors . A n
 m
i p ortant f     eature of th e TH A A D w eap on s y s tem i i  s ts
s h oot-l               ap ii y       ll                ll eterm i
           ook-sh oot c ab l t . K i as s es s m ent w i d          ne
 f                   s es          ,      , f cs
i a w arh ead i d troy ed and i ne e s ary , a s e ond           c
i         e            d ea h .
 nterc p tor s h oul b l unc ed Th e TH A A D s y s tem us es a
       i
m ob leX-b     and            as rad         th    etec on
                    groundb ed ar w i a d ti range of
up to 1,             l
             000 kiom eters . Th e i          e
                                        nterc p tor us es a s tari  ng
 nf                           l nc udng          ndum
i rareds eeker as s em b y ,i l i an i i -anti oni e         m      d
 oc                          ry
f al p lan e array ; c ogen i c       c ooler as s em bly ; s i  gnal
       e ng
p roc s s i elec           c                          c
                     troni s ; and an electro-op ti al teles c e. op
                l           n               e
TH A A D w i l op eratei th e up p er ti r to 15 0 km andi th e n
interm edate ti r d n to around4 0 km .4 0 C h i e s ourc s
             i      e ow                               nes           e
       m
es ti ate th e TH A A D p robability of kill agai s t a        n
  ,         lom         alli c s le
35 00-ki eter b s ti m i s i us i a s i     ng      ngle i      e
                                                          nterc p tor
                e                      e
at 85 p erc nt, and 9 7.7 p erc nt i tw o i f             e
                                                    nterc p tors are
us ed4 1.
              m           s          p
     Th e ulti ate p lan i to equi tw o TH A A D b    attali ons to
                               on      on l c         h
s u p p ort tw o m ajor regi al c fi ts . E ac TH A A D
b         on nc ud our s ub i
  attali i l es f                          i      ts
                                ordnate fre uni eac w i ah       th
                                     ,        ,
B attle M anagem ent C om m and C ontrol C om m uni ati    c ons,
an d In telli           B
                gen ce ( M C 3I) elem en t, one rad     ar, n i e   n
        h         14     s ls         gn
launc ers and 4 m i s i e . D es i p aram eters callf eac   or       h
                       e               l y       , l
TH A A D s y s tem to b tran s p ortab eb land rai or road s ea ,
andai ( y C -14 1 or larger ai raf .4 2 Th e M ay 19 9 9 D oD
          r b                      rc t)
    p                s
Re ort to C ongre s on TM D A rc i e t                i        n
                                        h t c ure Op t ons i th e
Asi  a-Pac f c Re on notes th at only one TH A A D fre uni
            ii     gi                                      i          t
           e      ed        d om            ov
w ouldb need to p rov i e c p lete c erage ofTai an.         w
     PA TRIOT A d anc d C ap a i i y 3( C -3 . Th e m i s i
                      v     e       blt       PA      )          s le
  ef                          or                  ep
d ense s y s tem s latedf neares t term d loy m ent i th e      s
            s l . h uledf i
PA C -3m i s i e Sc ed                    uc on e ore
                                 or ntrod ti b f th eendof
2                n
  001, m any i th e A s i          ii
                             a-Pacfc regi        nc udng
                                            on, i l i Tai an,   w
           c
are exp e tedto p roc                          s l
                           ure th e PA C -3 m i s i e ov er th e next
s ev eral y ears .4 3 Tai an c
                         w                s       p        th
                                urrently i equi p edw i PA C -3

                                122
                         rad
grounds y s tem s ( ar,truc ,c m andandc ks om                      ontrol)and
           d e                  e        s l G           ,
th e G ui anc E n h anc dM i s i e ( E M ) w h i h h as s om e    c
m i s i d ense c a i i y .4 4 Proc
    s le ef               ap b l t                 urem ent of th e PA C -3
    s l       l om
m i s i e w i l c p lete th e PA C -3 G row th Plan th at b gan           e
    th       ni al ep
w i th e i ti d loy m ent ofPA C -3groundequi m ent i                 p        n
19 9 7. One p rom i                w
                       nent Tai an journal,D e e          f nse T c nology ,
                                                                     eh
       ts           w
p os i th at Tai an ev entually m ay p roc              ure enough PA C -3
    s ls              dti
m i s i e andad i onal PA C -3 groundequi m ent to outft      p                i
                                          4 5
               ne            i        ts
betw een ni to 12fre uni . Th e PA C -3i a m uc m ore          s        h
  ap l eri             v
c ab e d v ati e of th e G E M s y s tem i term s of b      n               oth
  ov                         ty
c erage andleth ali . Th e PA C -3 h as a new i                           e
                                                                     nterc p tor
    s          th         if              ll       c
m i s ile w i a dferent ki m e h ani m — rath er th an   s
       ng               i
h av i an exp lodng w arh ead i i a h i    ,t s                  l
                                                      t-to-ki ls y s tem . Th e
             s le s              uti
PA C -3m i s i i an ev ol onary outgrow th ofth eE xtend                      ed
                  e        E          .         ani
RangeInterc p tor ( RINT) Th ec s ter i th es am es i eas  s              z
              ani
a G E M c s ter, b contai f ut                            s ls
                                           ns our m i s i e and tub s         e
 n
i s tead of a s i      ngle round Selec .                        ot
                                                   ted Patri launc i      h ng
s tati         l e           ii               cp
        ons w il b m odfedto ac e t PA C -3 c s ters . E ac    ani             h
         h            e oad          th our
launc er m ay b l edw i f G E M round or 16 PA C -3              s
                       s f
m is s ile roun d i th e lau n ch ers are m od f ed to                 ii
                                               4 6
   c          ate
ac om m od th e PA C -3m i s i e        s l.
             fl ated s ourc s as s ert th e PA TRIOT G E M
    PL A af ii                e
 PA     +) ll            e
( C -2 w i only b able to i                 e      0     e
                                    nterc p t 10-2 p erc nt of
 nc ng        s ls         w          e l m
i om i m i s i e . Tai an sourc s cai th at tw o G E M
i      e          l                   e        cs           ns
 nterc p tors w i l h av e an 80 p erc nt s uc e s rate agai t
                                        47
                             c s ls           th
PL A s h ort range ballis ti m i s i e . W i th e PA TRIOTs
    y ep                      p i          ri c
onl d loy edaroundTai e , oth er c ti al targets around
     s                    c .               ndc ons
th ei landareunp rote ted Th ere are i i ati ,h ow ev er,
              l tary i
th at th e m ii               s          d          ov
                       ntend to p rov i e s om e c erage f   or
Tai h ung andK aoh s i
    c                    ung.4 8

          ,                   c
C om m and C ontrol,C om m uni ations
andIntelligence.

        s l ef
     M i s i e d en s e s y s tem s are reli ant up on a s tead  y
                  e
s tream of s p ac - and ground                 om
                                     -bas ed c m and c    , ontrol,
  om
c m uni ati c ons, and i     ntelli    e
                                   genc s y s tem s . C urrent and
f                   nc ud 1)           en
 uture s ens ors i l e: ( D ef s e Sup p ort Program


                                    123
        tes 2         e
s atelli ; ( ) Sp ac -B as ed Inf                      gh  3
                                    rared Sy s tem -H i ; ( )
      e
Sp ac -B as ed Inf                        4          ed
                  rared Sy s tem -L ow ; ( ) Up grad E arly
       ng     ars       5
W arni Rad ; and( )X-B andRad .          ars
        f nse Sup p ort Program Sat l i e . Th e U.S. exi ti
     D ee                              el t s                s ng
    s l ef
m i s i e d enses rely on D ef   ense Sup p ort Program ( SP)D
s atelli tes and 19 70s v i              ar               or
                              ntage rad s y s tem s f early
        ng
w arni purp os es . Th e U.S. D SP s atelli          an etec
                                                tes c d t a
       h           c s ter            h
launc 5 0-6 0 s e ond af launc andth en relay w arni            ng
 n orm ati ab
i f         on                 c    s
                    out 9 0 s e ond af               h
                                         ter launc . In clear
                          tes an etec         s le
w eath er,th es e s atelli c d t a m i s i launc w i i    h   th n
       c s              h      i
10 s e ond oflaunc . C ue ng a groundb edrad f  as         ar rom
      e as s            ata an              uc
s p ac b ed ensor d c greatly red eth eai p ac th at   rs    e
                h    to i th                s les
m us tbes earc ed fnd eth eater m i s i . Suc d can     h ata
  ue alli c s l ef                              h        c fc
c b s ti m i s i ed ens e as s ets to s earc a s p e i i area,
allow i rad ac s i on at th e m axi um range.4 9
        ng     ar qui ti                    m
           e      d rare Sy s t m -H i ( IRS-H i ) Th e
     Sp ac B as e Inf         d       e     gh SB          gh .
             gh
SB IRS-H i s atelli               l e n
                          tes w i l b gi to augm ent th e D SP
         tes                  002        i
s atelli as early as 2 . Th e frs t SB IRS-H i w il b   gh     l e
      e nto a h i ly elli ti al orb t f c erage of p olar
p lac d i            gh        p c        i or ov
      ons                          tes e ng
regi . Ofth e s ev en satelli b i p roc               , our l e
                                                  ured f w il b
      e nto             h              i ov
p lac di geos y nc ronous orb t ab e th eequator andth e
                l en            gh      p c        i
oth er tw o w i lb i th e h i ly elli ti al orb ts . SB IRS-H i  gh
   f                     v
ofers num erous ad antages ov er th e D SP s y s tem . It w i l    l
              s t              e v      ew     c s
h av e a rev i i rate ofonc e ery f s e ond th us ena l ng    bi
        ls                   k          s le l gh
es tabi h m ent ofa trac on th em i s i fi t bas edon m ore
                ots            s l ’ oc on.
num erous p l ofth e m i s i es l ati Th e SB IRS s y s tem
    l                  oc                        dng
w i lh av ealarger f alp lanearray ,p rov i i a launc p oi  h     nt
       i ti                          l
p redc on ofles s th an one ki om eter. Th e s y s tem als o w i l l
        d
p rov i e con ti               ov
                    nuous c erage of th e p olar regi           ons .
             gh     l                    ap b l t           l
SB IRS-H i w i l h av e a “s tare” c a i i y th at w i l allow
th em to c   onti               s
                  nuous ly ob erv e a d i               c
                                           es gnated s e tor of th e
              s      h
earth . Th i tec nology c                        c
                                   an be p arti ularly us ef iul n
c          ng as urn b ters th at li i th e ti e av ai able
  ounteri f t b             oos             m t      m         l
                                              50
to d         ne           s l ’ l gh
      eterm i th e m i s i es fi t p ath .
                                                       .
   Sp ac - B as e I rare Sy s t m -L ow ( IRS-L ow ) A n
        e        d nf     d    e         SB
                        ,               l       d
outgrow th of th e SD I SB IRS-L ow w i l p rov i e p recis e
  d ours e m i s i etrac ng andtarget ds c m i
m i -c          s l     ki                          on.
                                        i ri nati Th e


                                124
                              s
SB IRS-L ow p rogram i a low earth orb t s atelli     i           te
c            on        oul      s           ep oy
  onstellati th at c dob erv e th e d l m ent ofreentry
       c                     on     d m
v eh i les and p en etrati ai s i m edately f   i         ollow ing
b                    oos            c      or ni al ep
  urnout of th e b ter. Proje ted f i ti d loy m ent
  uri                                    e ad
d ng th e latter p art of th e d c e, 2 SB IRS-L ow4
         tes         ng n                       i
s atelli , op erati i a low earth orb t of about 1000
   lom           l e qui            th       nd
ki eters ,w i lb e p p edw i tw o i ep end s ensors .  ent
   rs s           c                    an      k        oos
F i t i an op ti al s y s tem th at c trac th e b ter and
               c                                l gh           c
reentry v eh i le th rough out all p h as es offi t. Th e s e ond
       nf                         an etec
are i rared s ensors th at c d t h eat s i            gnatures i   n
v arious p orti ons of th e f           y     c rum — s h ortw av e
                                requenc s p e t
 nf               an etec                n       oos
i rared th at c d t targets i th e b t p h as e; and
      i                        nf
m edum and long w av e i rared th at are able to d            etect
               c     n         d ours e p h as e offi t. Onc a
reentry v eh i les i th e m i -c                     l gh        e
           s    qui , nf             on
target i ac red i orm ati on th e target w i be               ll
 orw       ed            op                   e
f ard to a teles c e th at w ouldb able to trac th e          k
m i s i e af b ter b
    s l ter oos          urnout.5 1
                           on    d ep           if
    B ecaus e p enetrati ai s d loy df erently th an
               c      t s      e      d f               je t
reentry v eh i les , i i eas i r to i enti y th os e ob c s th at
m us t be attac     i       ep           s s        .
               ked fth ed loy m ent i ob erv ed SB IRS-L ow
   l         e               d     s le ef
w i l als o b able to p rov i e m i s i d ense op erators w i  th
    fcent trac ng d
s uf i i          ki                               e
                          ata to enable interc p tors to b      e
       h            ter oos
launc eds oon af b ter b                            l e ore
                                  urn-out andw e l b f th e
              ng     ar etec          nc ng
early w arni rad d ts th ei om i reentry v eh i les .        c
                f     i             on     e ng ap b l t e
SB IRS-L ow ofers frs t generati p roc s s i c a i i i s to
i                      je t                 eri
 nterp ret a target ob c m ap th at w as d v edf     rom anoth er
i rareds ensor rath er th an a rad 5 2
 nf                                    ar.
    SB IRS-L ow i c      d          e     ri c ac
                   s onsi eredto b a c ti al f tor i any n
f         e i on         ap
 uture d c s i to ad t th e A E G IS-bas ed m i -c  d ours e
i      e        or
 nterc p tors f us e agai  nst longer range IC B M s . A E G IS
rad                         i tati                b t t rom
    ar— th e SPY-1D — h as l m i ons th at p roh i i i f
  e ng        n                     e.
b i us edi an autonom ous m od F or exam p le,i range ts
 s i tedto ap p roxi ately 5 00 ki om eters ,d endng on
i lm i                 m             l          ep       i
      z
th es i eofth e target andth ef         y      c t
                               requenc at w h i h i op erates
 S-B     : -4       )               oes          d
( and 2 G H Z. Th e SPY-1D d not p rov i e as m uc            h
         on                      ar
res oluti as th e X-B and rad s y s tem . A E G IS requi    res
                            ue ng to engage an IC B M i
s om e ty p e of external c i                                 n
   d ours e.5 3
m i -c

                               125
     Up grad d E arly W arni Rad . Th e c
              e                   ng      ars          urrent U.S.
early w arni     ng netw ork relies on ultra-h i f   gh requenc     y
 UH          ars 4 0
( F )rad ( 3 M H z                   ,
                              range) as w ellas oneL -B and ar  rad
  as      n
b edi Sh em y a,A las ka. Th es e s y s tem s w ere d i   es gnedto
       d
p rov i e w arn i                 n om n            k,
                     ng of an i c i g attac p erm i n g         tti
    fcent ti e to launc our b b r f e and f i
sufi i         m              h        om e orc             ac litate
                                          fcals
m ov em ent of key gov ernm ent of i i . Th ey w ere not
  es gned to s u p p ly fre c
d i                       i                 ty ata of s ufi i
                                ontrol quali d                 fc ent
      i on
p rec s i to gui ei           e            i ri nate i i i ual
                    d nterc p tors andds c m i             ndv d
ob c w i i an i om i target array .5 4 H ow ev er, th e
   je ts     th n       nc ng
     ted
Uni States i             s            e s ng         ars n
                    ntend to up grad exi ti rad i ord to         er
       d               i          m      ata         an e
p rov i e m ore p rec s e andti ely d th at c b us edto
      cp
anti i ate a f      uture i       e              s      l
                           nterc p t area. Th i w i l allow an
i        e
 nterc p tor to b l         h          egi ts l gh
                     e aunc edandb n i fi t— th e earl e           ir
      ly                         ef ed
th e f out,th e larger th e d end area or f                nt.
                                                    ootp ri Th es e
           ed               ng      ars UE
Up grad E arly W arni Rad ( W Rs )w ould eableto           b
  i ri nate betw een d ens or h und s of ob c th at
ds c m i                      oz              red         je ts
 oul e n                 l
c db i a target c us ter and m i                   je ts
                                     eli nate ob c th at d not   o
                                                 55
 i         h      teri c
ft th e c arac s ti s ofa reentry v eh i le.  c
     X- B and Rad            l                        ll     d
                   ars. W h i e UE W R s y s tem s w i p rov i e a
greater d               c      y          ll l
            egree of ac urac , th ey s ti w i l not be able to
       d        etai e ata          ed
p rov i e th e d l dd need to ds c m i     i ri nate th e ri t gh
    je ts n                                    es
ob c i a target array th at m us t be d troy edi fi t.    n l gh
Th ed                i on        res     ar
        egreeofp rec s i requi a rad th at op erates i th e  n
X-B and (               )              ar
            8-12 G H z. X-B and rad s y s tem s p rov i e a  d
  etai e      c                             nc udng alc
d l d“p i ture” ofth e target array ,i l i c ulati              ng
th e am oun t of nos e w obble m oti        on th at w ould b     e
  h      teri c                     ce            ng
c arac s ti ofa reentry v eh i l ,m easuri th e dam eter  i
                   je ts th n
andlength ofob c w i i th e target array ,as w ell as th e
s p i rate v eloc ty ,and os i on ofob c .5 6 B e aus e X-B and
     n     ,     i        p ti         je ts        c
     ar             ll            th n ai
rad s y s tem s w i op eratew i i a f rly b             and d
                                                 roadb w i th ,
th ey are c i ereddf i ult to jam .5 7
            ons d        i fc
           onc p s or                     ar
    One c e t i f one X-B andrad to b d l edto  e ep oy
A las ka. H ow ev er,a s i       ar as at s       ati i
                          nglerad b ed th i loc on l kely
   l        e                d     ar ov
w i l not b able to p rov i e rad c erage ofall p otenti    al
th reats to th e Uni                   dti        ar
                       ted States . A d i onal rad s y s tem s
          e      ed              ar                  e be o
w ould b need . X-B andrad s y s tem s s h ould b a l t
  etec       nc ng
d t an i om i target array at a range ofabout 4 ,         000

                                126
  lom                  i ri nati w i l not b p os s i le
ki eters , alth ough ds c m i   on   l      e        b
     l                  s      i     e
unti th e target array i at a ds tanc of around 2   000
  lom
ki eters .

C H IN E SE R E SPONSE S

               i ng’           c v ,        alli c s l ef
     F rom B e ji s p ers p e ti e U.S. b s ti m i s i ed ense
                                 erc            i c
p rogram s th reaten to und ut th e p ol ti al andm i          litary
    l ty                s         ng nv
utii of th e PRC ’ grow i i entory of s trategi and            c
 onv
c enti            alli c s les                        e
            onal b s ti m i s i . Th e PRC p lac s a p rem i       um
             ng ts alli c s le orc
on ensuri i b s ti m i s i f e w ould b a l t              e be o
p enetrate any f              s l ef            h tec
                   uture m i s i e d ense arc i ture. D ef      ense
 nd                                 ni
i us try analy s ts are exam i ng a range ofs op h i ti ateds c
    s l ef
m i s i e d ense c                         n      er
                      ounterm easures i ord to red e th e    uc
   fc v                  ti        s      ef
efe ti enes s of ac v e m i s ile d en s e s y s tem s . PRC
c       ti      nf         on             s           ev
 ollec on ofi orm ati th at w ould up p ort d elop m ent of
   fc v        s le ef
efe ti e m i s i d ense c       ounterm easures h as a relati elyv
   gh      ori      th     m ted orc ons s ng
h i p ri ty . W i a li i f ec i ti ofonly a c le               oup
  oz                   nes              ei v
d en IC B M s ,C h i e analy s ts b l e e th at ev en a li i   m ted
         c      s l ef                     th 0 nterc p tors (.e.,
A m eri an m i s i ed ense s y s tem w i 2 i             e        i
th e p rev i                 h tec        oul        uc
             ous “C 1” arc i ture) c d red e or negate
     na’      ni
C h i s m i m al nuc e d  l ar eterrent. PRC m i    litary p lanners
         e n ontem p lati a w ors t-c es c nari i w h i h th e
h av eb e c                 ng          as      e     o n      c
U.S. c               h       i        ke es        ng
         ould launc a frs t-stri d troy i m os t of th e
     nes                                  e aus
C h i e IC B M s on th e ground b c e th es e m i s i e        s ls
        re
requi s ev eral h ours to f                               h
                                  uel, arm , and launc . In th e
af                 m ted U.S. m i s i e d ense s y s tem c d
   term ath , a li i                 s l ef                      oul
                                      na’     c
engage th e rem nants of C h i s s e ond tri m i s i-s ke       s le
f e5 8
 orc .

B ackground

       i ng’ nteres t i c
    B e ji s i                       ng alli c s le ef
                        n ounteri b s ti m i s i d enses
d        ak                                           s l ef
  ates b c to th e19 6 0s . In res p ons e to U.S. m i s i ed ense
            n                 i ng e                   ne
p rogram s i th e 19 6 0s ,B e ji b gan to exam i m eans to
               a iiy      ts ncp e          s le orc ,
ensure th ev i b l t ofi i i i nt m i s i f e and at th e   ,
         m , ev               as c h            e
s am e ti e d elop th e b i tec nologi s th at w ould b          e
      ed      i
need to feld an i i                            c s l ef
                        ndgenous s trategi m i s i e d ense



                               127
                s  f
s y s tem . Th i efort, know n as th e 6 4 0 Program , w as
c e l di th e 19 70s .5 9
  anc l e n
                   n    s l ef
      Interes t i m i s i e d ensec    ounterm eas ures reem erged
 n                        d                      s
i th e w ake ofPres i ent RonaldReagan’ M arc 19 83SD I. h
            nes        ni            i      f rs raf
Th e C h i e M i s try ofF ore gn A fai d tedan i ti             ni al
        y                  m i ati              n
s tud to as s es s th ei p l c ons ofSD Ii 19 84 . In late 19 84
                                           ers p
or early 19 85 , th e cen tral lead h i tas ke s ev eral   d
     ni e                     h nsti
m i s tri s and res earc i tutes to d elop a d l dev            etai e
exam i          on                     ts m i ati
          nati of th e SD I and i i p l c ons f C h i       or      na.
         ng                ef      nd      al om
D uri 19 85 , th e d ens e i us tri c p lex s p onsoreda
       e       onf       e
s eri s ofc erenc s on SD I,and c                            ev
                                        a onsens us w as d elop ed
                e               ev
th at Sov i t and U.S. d elop m ent of b s ti m i s ialli c       s le
  ef
d ense s y s tem s h ad s i fc             m i ati         or
                               gni i ant i p l c ons f C h i s     na’
nuc    lear d                              nes
                eterrent. B y 19 86 , C h i e exp erts generally
                                        al
agreedth ere w ere th ree p otenti res p ons es : exp ansi of     on
   f      v orc s ev
ofensi ef e ; d elop m ent oftec ni alc   h c ounterm easures ,
      h             eni             nni         alli c s les
suc as h ard ng and s p i ng of b s ti m i s i , to
                     s le ef                           ep
p enetrate m i s i d ense s y s tem s ; and d loy m ent of
        -        te A                          es
anti s atelli ( SA T) w eap ons to d troy s p ac -b ed        e as
s y s tem s .6 0
                   s on          i e         h    ogy
     Th e C om m i s i ofSc enc , Tec nol , andInd try           us
 or
f N ati    onal D ef           C
                       ense ( O STIN D ) p lay ed a key role i       n
f           ng       i ng’
 orm ulati B e ji s res p on s e to th e “glob tec ni al al     h c
          on”                y               s l ef
rev oluti p rom p tedb th eU.S. m i s i ed ensei ti v e.     ni ati
              e                          eli
In Sep tem b r 19 84 ,C OSTIND d v ereda p rop os al to th e
C entral M i i                    s on C
               l tary C om m i s i ( M C ) s ugges ti         ng th at
relev ant PL A b            h       ev         ef          i
                       ran c es d elop d en s e s c ence and
     h
tec nol  ogy gam ep lans out to th e y ear 2       000. W orki i ng n
c        ti       th                     i,
  onjunc on w i th eState C ounc l C O STIND f ulated    orm         a
   ef
d en s e tech nology s trategy th at f             ocu s ed on key
     h   ogi s                      t               e
tec nol e andp res entedi at a N ov em b r 19 85 m eeti             ng
    th                   ers p
w i th e C M C lead h i . A f                  s n     b
                                      terw ard , i Fe ruary 19 86 ,
                 th                       om
C O STIN D , w i C M C s up p ort, c m i s i    s oneda long term
  ev                                 nc ud
d elop m ent p rogram th at i l ed th e f ati of 18  orm     on
s tud group s to f us on d i
       y              oc         es gnatedc ti al tec nologi s .6 1
                                               ri c      h        e
                         th n     ef            om
   H ow ev er, s om e w i i th e d ense S&T c m uni      ty
 ei v                 s                fc ent to m eet th e
b l e edC O STIN D ’ p lan w as not sufi i


                                128
    h c        h                     y              s
tec n i al c allenges p os ed b U.S. m i s ile d en s e         ef
                        h
p rogram s . In M arc 19 86 ,f             na’
                                our ofC h i s m os t p rom i      nent
  ef
d en s e engi                              ti
                 neers p res ented a p eti on to th e C entral
C om m i       alli or          ls
        ttee c ng f es tabi h m ent ofa “H i Tec nolgh        h    ogy
         h
Res earc and D ev elop m ent Plan Outli           ne.” Th e p lan,
ref       to                            m
    erred as th e86 3Program ,w as i p lem entedi p aralleln
                 s
to C O STIN D ’ L ong Range Plan to Year 2            000 and w as
joi                    y
   ntly m anagedb C OSTIN D andth e State Sc enc and      i e
     h
Tec nol                 s on.                         l
         ogy C om m i s i Th e86 3p rogram ,s ti la gui e and   d
 undng            e or
f i s ourc f num erous p re i i        l m nary R&D p roje t ,     cs
 oc                                  h        e nc ud n
f us es on s om e ofth e s am e tec nologi s i l edi th e
                     s
SD I and E urop e’ answ er to SD I, th e E ureka p rogram ,
        in
in clu d g s p ace s y s tem s , h igh p ow ered las ers ,
m i roelec
   c       troni s ,andautom atedc
                  c                    ontrol s y s tem s .6 2

       c
Tech ni al.

         th        i
     W i s tudes and res earc c uc                   n
                                      h ond ted i th e 19 80s
       dng
p rov i i th e f           ati       i ng
                     ound on, B e ji h as em b     arked up on a
f           h ng                -f e
 ar-reac i and m ulti ac ted p rogram to en s ure th e
   ab l ty        ts          c    s l orc .
v i ii of i ballis ti m i s i e f e Th es e p rogram s
 nc ud
i l e tech ni al c c                                     on
                          ounterm eas ures , an exp ans i of i   ts
    s l orc ,                              c
m i s i e f e as w ell as as y m m etri al m easures , suc as h
      -s       te
anti atelli op erati                       s nv     ng gni i ant
                           ons. Th e PRC i i es ti s i fc
           e nto c
res ourc s i                    ng    s le ef
                       ounteri m i s i d en s e th rough th e
  ev                     h c              on d
d elop m ent oftec ni al p enetrati ai s . C ontem p orary
     nes i
C h i el teratureon tec ni al c                          s oc
                               h c ounterm eas ures i f us ed
on “tw o categories an d eigh t m ajor p en etration
    h     ogi s li                                :
tec nol e ”( angd l i b d t ang ji h u) Th es ei l e
                           a e , a a uf       s             nc ud
c                i l e elec
  ountersurv e l anc ( troni c       c ounterm eas ures , s tealth ,
d                   as
  ecoy s , and f t burn m otors ) an d c                 n
                                                oun teri tercep t
 m        p                s              n
( ulti le w arh ead , m an euv eri g reen try v eh i les ,    c
       eni
h ard ng,ands aturati .        on)
                                  h c                s oc
    C ount rsurv e l anc . One tec ni al s trategy i f us ed
           e      il e
     eny ng                      ii              y etec
on d i U.S. s ensors th e ab l ty to p rop erl d t and
 i ri nate b s ti m i s i e andth e r p ay load . C h i e
ds c m i       alli c s l s            i           s       nes
         h         ev            n
res earc an d d elop m en t i to c     ounters urv eillan c    e
                        s e       on our
(anz e h a)s y s tem s i c ntered f areas : 1)e e t
 f h nc                                               l c roni c


                                129
c                   )            ) e oy           as
 ounterm easures ; 2 s tealth ; 3 d c s ; and 4 ) f t burn
m otors .
    1. E lectron ic C oun term eas ures . F rom C h in a’        s
         c v ,         v         ti
p ers p e ti e p as s i e andac v e elec      c ounterm easures
                                        troni c
         und                 fc v                     ng
are a f am ental y et efe ti e m eans ofensuri balli ti        s c
   s ls                      h      i             nes
m i s i e are able to reac th e r targets . C h i e li   terature
 i                      v
c tes us e of p as s i e elec       c ounterm easures , suc as
                               troni c                       h
 h f         onf                 ar             h
c af,to c us e enem y rad s y s tem s ,suc as th e X-B and
                                nes       ng        em
and UE W R s y s tem s . C h i e tes ti h as d ons trated
            s c s l s an arry a s i fc am ount ofc af
th at balli ti m i s i e c c           gni i ant              h f
        an f c                                e
th at c afe t a large v olum e of s p ac . D ev elop m ent i     s
 oc        n                uc on            c    p
f us edi p art on prod ti ofm etalli s tri s th at are 1.5
 e m            n                  an           ar
c nti eters i length th at c target rad s y s tem s th at
op erate at 10 G H z(.e.,X-b
                          i      andrad )6 3
                                        ars .
             h         s       erw
    Res earc als o i und ay on rado f          i requenc and  y
 nf
i rared c   ounterm easures . C A SC h as c uc ond tedtes ts on
  ti
ac v e jam m ers th at c b           c
                           an road as t a s i   gnal d ies gned to
i      ere th         ar’ b l t        etec
 nterf w i a rad s a i i y to d t th e target ob c or         je t
corrup t th e s i      n     h
                 gnal i suc a w ay as to caus e th e rad to     ar
re e v e a f e e h o.6 4 N ati
  ci         als    c                        v     ty
                                   onal Uni ers i of D ef s e    en
Tech n ology an aly s ts h av e exam in ed electron i                c
counterm eas u re p ac    kages on b    oard th eater balli ti    s c
   s ls
m i s i e as a m eans to c             li                       i i rs
                            ounter m i l m eter w av e am p l f e
                           s l        nf
us edon th e PA C -3 m i s i e and i rareds eekers on G B I          ,
TH A A D , and Sea-B as ed M i -C ours e i
                                   d           nterc p tors .6 5 Th e
                                                    e
             s nv       ng gni i antly i
PRC als o i i es ti s i fc                  nto ground and ai        r
 as
b edjam m ers th at c             fc      ar
                         ouldefe t rad s y s tem s s up p orti     ng
m i s i e d enses d loy edaroundi p eri h ery .6 6
   s l ef           ep                  ts      p
      .                dti        ti              v
     2 Stealth . In ad i on to ac v e andp as s i e elec  troni c
counterm easures ,PRC engi                     ng       uc h
                              neers arew orki to red et e
 blt                     ng           ki        ar
a i i y of early w arni and trac ng rad s y s tem s to
  etec            c s ls n
d t ballis ti m i s i e i th e m i -c  d ours e and term i    nal
                i l gh
p h as e of th e r fi t. Th e i       s
                               ntent i to d c               l
                                             e reas e av ai able
      ti     m                uc             a iiy
reac on ti e andth us red e th e p rob b l t ofki l and   l
f        nt        s l ef
 ootp ri of m i s i e d en s e s y s tem s . One of th e m os t
   fc v              iy m
efe ti e andreadl i p lem entedc        ounterm eas ures i tos
     uc h         ar ros   c on RC
red e t e rad c s s e ti ( S)ofth e reentry v eh i le.        c


                                130
C A SC d i                   y                m               h
           es gners alread h av e taken si p le s tep s ,s uc as
        ng      i               c    y ri ng
s h ap i th e r reentry v eh i les b b ngi th e nos e to a
             nt             i       ac       ges
s h arp p oi androundng th e b k ed . Th e D F-11 and
                                     s
th e D F-15 h av e s h ap edw arh ead th at s ep arate f  rom th e
         nd              s l od          nes            h
rem ai er of th e m i s i e b y . C h i e res earc ers als o
               m           th om                     ce
h av e exp eri entedw i c p lex reentry v eh i l s urf e      ac s
               ar s      e         als
th at us erad ab orb nt m ateri th at c c       an ounter X-b  and
      ar                   y
rad s y s tem s us ed b TH A A D and th e G B I. E n gi      neers
h av e taken noteofan ad anc dv           an              h
                                 e Rus s i stealth tec nol ,  ogy
a p las m a ( e      z) oati
               d ngli i c ng th at d                  f c l gh
                                          oes not afe t fi t
  y        c       an gni i antly red e t e ab l t ofrad
d nam i s andc si fc                    uc h        ii y        ar
s y s tem s to d t th e reentry v eh i le.6 7
                etec                  c
              s l ngi                              ng
    PRC m i s i e e neers als o are low eri th e i rared      nf
   gn                                     c             n
s i ature of th eir reen try v eh i les . E ngi eers h av e
         ed n etai h                  nf        oc
analy z i d l t e ty p es ofi raredf al p lane array s
th at are i          e or                       -
            ntendd f us e on th e land and s ea-b ed             as
                                       68
    d ours e s y s tem s andTH A A D . E xp eri ents h av eb e
m i -c                                           m                en
  ond tedus i “ olds c
c uc             ng c         reen” (el ngp e         h
                                             ng) tec nology th at
                      s                   ce
th erm ally s h roud th e reentry v eh i l . A n alum i   num alloy
 s              as
i usedto enc e th e w arh eadandl qui ni                     s
                                          i d trogen i p lac d      e
 n
i betw een th e alum i                                       .
                           num s h ell andth e w arh ead In one
        m         ngi
exp eri ent, e neers noted th at s y s tem s , s uc as th eh
      -                       d
L and andSea-B as edM i -C ours e andTH A A D , norm ally
  oul     qui                    c      th    i       c
c dac re a reentry v eh i le w i a fv e m i ron i rared       nf
si                          ,       l                p
   gnature at a rangeof3000 ki om eters . E qui p ed i th e  w th
  old reen,d ti range ofth e reentry v eh i l w ouldb
c sc            etec on                                 ce           e
red e to th ree m eters .6 9
    uc d
      .     c         nes
    3 D e oy s . C h i e engi                             c e oy
                                  neers n ote tw o bas i d c
( ou’ r) m eas ures : 1) s aturati
 y      e                               on; an d 2 d           on
                                                     ) ecep ti .
           on b      )               nc ud
Saturati ( aoh e m easures i l e th e us e of m etalli            c
b                     je ts        m                         ce n
  alloons or oth er ob c th at s i ulateth ereentry v eh i l i
          d ours e or term i
th e m i -c                                     l gh
                               nal p h as e of fi t. E ngi  neers
   gh i               v               s    h
h i l gh t th e relati e eas e ofth i tec nol   ogy as w ell as its
        os                                 nes           ly
low c t. In 19 9 5 and19 9 6 , th e C h i e alleged tes ted
D F-2 end
        1     o-atm os p h eri d c s . 70 D e e ti m eas ures
                              c e oy          c p on
     er          on nc ud
und ev aluati i l e elec                c e oy
                                  troni d c s or tran s p ond   er
                           t     ar           m l
jam m ers th at transm i a rad return si iar to th at ofth e
true reentry v eh i le.71
                    c

                                131
     4 . F as t- B urn M otors . C h in es e en gin eers h av e
  em                 onc rn               al ep
d onstrated c e ov er p otenti d loy m ent of U.S.
   rb                  e
ai orne and s p ac -bas ed las ers . A n oth er m eth od und    er
c      d      on
 onsi erati as an exp l c t c                          oos
                              i i ounterm eas ure to b t p h as e
i        e       s as
 nterc p tors i a f tburn b ter (oos                  ) or
                                        suran z utui f C h i s
                                                h             na’
                  on
next generati ofs ol df                        c alli c s les
                           i ueleds trategi b s ti m i s i .
      nes
C h i e engi eers cn             on es gn
                            auti d i ers ab        out p otenti al
quali c                  lm
        ty ontrol p rob e s relatedto s tage s ep arati andon
   c       y
ac urac ,and                   s   h                e i d i
                  sugges t th i tec nology s h ouldb dv i ed nto
                   as                e    ore gn     s l ef
th ree s tages b edon th e p ac off i m i s i e d ense
                   72
  ev
d elop m ents .
     B oos t Ph as e M ane e ng. One oth er c
                           uv ri                 ounterm eas ure
             nes      s                      s
th at C h i e ob erv ers h av e noted i a boos t p h as e
m aneuv er d i          to ool                 tes
               es gned f U.S. D SP s atelli . B y c angih      ng
  i c ons d ng th e as c nt p h as e of fi t, th e b s ti
dre ti          uri           e             l gh          alli c
    s l an om i ate th e d ense’ eforts to p redc i
m i s ie c c p l c               ef    s f                 i t ts
 l gh         c            l            d e xi
fi t traje tory . W h i e no h ard ev i enc e s ts th at th e
     nes                ti               ev
C h i e h av e an ac v e p rogram to d elop a boos t p h as e
                        s        al or oop
m aneuv er, th ere i p otenti f c erati betw een   on
        a                s l ngi
Rus s i andPRC m i s i e e neers on tec nol    h    ogy us edon
                                          73
             an
th e Rus s i Top ol-M p rogram (       7)
                                   SS-2 .

C ounteri          f      ai .
         ntercep t( anlanz )

             c
     Th e s e ondm ajor category ofc ounterm eas ures s eeks to
d          s le ef
  eny m i s i d ense i          e             ii
                          nterc p tors th e ab l ty to p rop erly
              i                 nc ud 1)          p
engage th e r targets . Th es ei l e: ( m ulti le w arh ead ,  s
 2                 ng               c           3
( ) m aneuv eri reentry v eh i les , and ( ) h ard ng/    eni
     nni        alli c s les
s p i ng ofb s ti m i s i .
              p            s       na               ap b l t
     1. M ulti le W arh ead . C h i h as h adth e c a i i y to
  ev              ep oy         p               c
d elop andd l a m ulti le reentry v eh i le s y s tem f      or
                 nc udng
m any y ears ,i l i a M IRV s y s tem . A s ofJanuary 19 9 6 ,
                n        d        ev    ng        p
C A L T w as i th e m i s t of d elop i m ulti le w arh ead
           s       h    th ts            d
p ay load , eac w i i ow n gui an ce s y s tem an d
m aneuv eri c a i i y .74 Res earc and d elop m ent on
             ng ap b l t              h        ev
        p         ep    en                 c    M
m ulti le ind en d t reen try v eh i les ( IRV s ) w as
 ni atedas early as 19 70. Tec ni al dfi ulti s , h ow ev er,
i ti                               h c     ifc e
s talled th e p rogram . C A L T ren ew ed res earc an dh

                              132
  ev               n        ,      ter
d elop m ent i 19 83 s h ortly af th e SD I announc m ente
 n           h          .
i M arc 19 83 Th e D F - 5 A , able to s tri       ke targets
                          ted
th rough out th eUni States ,w as th ed i                i e
                                            es gnatedrec p i nt
                                   s        d e        ate
ofth e M IRV s , alth ough th ere i no ev i enc to d th at
                 e n ep       .
th ey h av e b e d loy ed Th e U.S. i   ntelli    e om
                                              genc c m uni    ty
                        na oul ev             p
as s es s es th at C h i c dd elop a m ulti le RV s y s tem f or
                       n ew           nes        t
th eD F -5 IC B M i a f y ears . C h i epursui ofa m ulti lep
        ap b l t or ts
RV c a i i y f i m ob l IC B M s and SL B M s w ould
                                ie
enc               gni i ant tec ni al h urd
     ounter s i f c             h c         les and w ould b   e
c tly .75
 os
         ti al      s f s            ni     z on
    C ri c to th i efort i th em i aturi ati ofw arh ead ,      s
          b     je ti                                         ew
a p os s i le ob c v e oftes ts at L op N ur ov er th e las t f
y ears .76 A c ordng to C h i e m i s i e d i
              c i            nes      s l es gners , real and
  e oy             s an e
d c w arh ead c b m i                    ng       p
                                 xed us i m ulti le w arh ead
    h
tec nology . Real w arh ead c   s an b c              th
                                         e oated w i rad       ar
         i           als n    er                ar
abs orb ng m ateri i ord to w eaken rad returns and
    uc           ii
red e th e ab l ty ofi        e           i ri nate real f
                         nterc p tors to ds c m i            rom
d c w arh ead .77
  e oy            s
       .
     2 M an euv eri                             c
                          ng Reen try V eh i les . C A L T als o i       s
  ev         ng
d elop i m aneuv erable reentry v eh i les i ord to  c      n     er
  om i ate m i s i e d en s e trac ng. M i s i d i
c plc                s l ef                ki          s le es gners
  ei v                    ng s
b l e e m aneuv eri i not only a m eans to c p l c            om i ate
  alli c         s l ef               ut s
b s ti m i s i e d enses , b i es s enti f term i     al or            nal
    d e
gui anc p ac                    l        ce
                   kages . W h i e v eh i l s can m aneuv er at any
  m        uri     l gh
ti e d ng fi t, C h i e engi   nes                               l ty n
                                           neers s ee m os t utii i
                ng                  c
p rogram m i a reentry v eh i le to m aneuv er i i term in ts          nal
         , 0-3        c s e ore           ki     ts
p h as e 2 0 s e ond b f s tri ng i target. A reentry
      c           l ng
v eh i le trav e i a noti     onal range of10,            l
                                                  000 ki om eters h as
          ii y                     th n
th e ab l t to m aneuv er w i i a lateral range of5 5 6 -9 00
   lom                                    ng      on i us
ki eters . A n oth er m aneuv eri op ti ds c s ed i to               s
                                     gh         tud ter
s endth e w arh eadup to a h i er alti e af s ep arati                  on
f               s l , ow        es e i n            i e or
 rom th em i s ie s l ly d c ndng i a gl d f a v ery long
  i         e               i       i
ds tanc , andth en fnally dv e tow ardth e target. M i s i          s le
  es gners h av ed onstrated s p e i i
d i                    em             a                     n
                                            c al nteres t i th es p eed
c                              d n
  ontrol m aneuv er us e i th e 1,                     l
                                               800-ki om eter ran ge
Pers h i  ng-II.78 C h i e engi
                         nes                        d     ng
                                   neers are ad res s i p rob e s  lm
         i     w th
as s oc ated i m ai            ni       c     y ter
                           ntai ng ac urac af exoatm os p h eri          c
m aneuv eri 79 Th rough m od l ng ands i ulati C A SC
               ng.                     ei            m        on,

                                  133
h as d eterm i                      ng s
               ned th at m aneuv eri i a v i     able m eans to
     uc and as ed low er ti r m i s i e d en s e s y s tem s ’
red e l        -b               e     s l ef
p rob ii y of ki l80 C h i alleged ac red PA TRIOT
      ab l t        l.      na          ly    qui
    h
tec nol           ali rate an auxii
         ogy to c b                             s on
                                  l ary p ropul i sy s tem on
                             c
th e D F -15 reentry v eh i le to enable th e p ay load to
                                               t
outm aneuv er a PA TRIO T s y s tem as i reenters th e
               81
                    ter om          m
atm os p h ere. A f c p uter s i ulati                    eli
                                             ons and m od ng
       i             s onfd          ts
exerc s es ,C A L T i c i ent th at i m aneuv erable th eater
  alli c       s                  c
b s ti m i s ile reentry v eh i les c           ef
                                           an d eat op p os ing
PA TRIOT s y s tem s .82
               en
     3. H ard ing. L ookin g ah ead to th e p oten ti                  al
  ep                oos
d loy m ent of b t p h as e i           e                      h
                                  nterc p t s y s tem s , s uc as th e
   rb                A      ,
ai orn e las er ( B L ) C A SC analy s ts are exam i i              n ng
  alli c s l            nni                 eni
b s ti m i s i e s p i ng and h ard ng. Sp i ng th e r   nni           i
  alli c s l s s ntend to p rev ent c e
b s ti m i s i e i i            ed                               on
                                                    onc ntrati ofa
h i p ow ered er on a s i
   gh           las            ngles p ot.83 C h i eengi
                                                  nes         neers are
  ev      ng
d elop i a c       oati       or alli c           s
                        ng f b s ti m i s iles th at c               ould
  om i ate us e of h i p ow er las ers . Us i th e r ow n
c plc                      gh                          ng        i
 ndgenous ly d elop ed h i p ow ered las ers , C h i e
i i                ev             gh                                nes
insti tutes h av e tes tedv ari ous c      ng           als
                                      oati m ateri to p rotec           t
                      alli c s l s                e
th eouter s h ellofb s ti m i s i e ,a p roc s s know n as las er
  l dng ji                              l dng,
c ad i ( guang rongf . L as er c ad i togeth er w i th e
                            u)                                     th
     nni                     s c s ls
s p i ng ofth eater balli ti m i s i e ,m ay not m akeb s ti     alli c
    s ls m               oos             s le ef
m i s i e i m uneto b t p h as em i s i d enses y s tem s b            ut
c        nc
  ould i reas e requi              ng m ,
                          red las i ti e th us red i th e    uc ng
num b r oflas er s h ots av ai ab e p er A B L m i s i 84
       e                        l l                   s on.

OTH E R .

         dti              h ques d c b abov e a range of
    In ad i on to th e tec ni       es ri ed     ,
         c c
oth er te h ni al andop erati onal counterm easures als o are
     er        d
u n d con s i erati                        e: 1)
                       on. Th es e in clud ( trajectory
    h ques , ( ) longer range d elop m ent of non-nuc e
tec ni         2                 ev                       l ar
                 c                 s 3 ndgenous m i s i e
electrom agneti p uls e w arh ead , ( ) i i              s l
  ef         ev                4                    A
d en s e d elop m en t, ( ) an ti- s atellite ( SA T)
 ev                  5       -axi
d elop m ent,and( )m ulti s s tri .    kes
             c        h ques . Th e ty p e oftraje t
    1. Traje tory Tec ni                                   c
                                                   c ory Se ond
A rtillery engi            t      fc          ii y
               neers s elec can afe t th e ab l t to p enetrate

                                 134
     s l ef                                      c e nc ud 1)
m i s i e d ense s y s tem s . Ty p es oftraje tori s i l e: (
 rac onal orb tal b b m ent s y s tem , ( ) d res s ed
f ti              i       om ard                       2 ep
        c e           3      ted       c e
traje tori s , and( ) lof traje tori s . C h i c uc  na ond teda
 eas b lity s tud on a f ti
f ii                y                            i      om ard
                               rac onal orb tal b b m ent
s y s tem (         n            s                 h        s le nto
            FOB S)i 19 6 6 . Th i s y s tem launc es a m i s i i
         ow     i           m                 l
v ery l orb t,ap p roxi ately 16 0 ki om eters ab e earth .ov
      ore om        on          i         i
B ef c p leti ofth e frs t orb t, a retro-roc                    uc s
                                                          ket red e
                               ,    c      ts                th
th e s p eedofth e w arh ead w h i h h i th e target w i only a
few m i    nutes w arni            nes
                         ng. C h i e engi       neers exp lored th e
          al           h ng        s l o
p otenti oflaunc i a m i s i e t a p red i           es gnatedp oi nt
               ti a
ov er A n tarc c as a m eans to p enetrate th e w eakes t p oi     nt
i th e U.S. w arni netw ork.85 Sti l v i w i a F O B S as an
 n                    ng                   l e ng
            v       nes
alternati e,C h i e d i     es gners c   onti      eas b l ty
                                              nue f i ii s tude    is
                                                                86
on f ti              i ng s l s b e
       rac onal orb ti m i s i e ( uf n gui ao d an)
                                                  d      aod .
          nes               e     ep              c     e y i
     C h i e analy s ts v i w d res s ed traje tori s ( ad
                             on
gui ao) as anoth er op ti to c
     d                                             e as
                                     ounter s p ac -b ed and
    d ours em i s i ed enses y s tem s . C h i eengi
m i -c           s l ef                       nes     neers note
                  ten     h     tud         ,     l
th at IC B M s of reac alti es of2000 kiom eters on a
                c                          h ng       s le
norm al traje tory . H ow ev er, launc i a m i s i at a
  ep               c
d res s edtraje tory c                       s le     h e
                         ouldallow th e m i s i to ac i v e only
           lom         tud, om i ati               ii y
a 100 ki eter alti e c p l c ng th e ab l t ofs om e
      e as s                             alli c s l .
s p ac -b ed y s tem s to engage th eb s ti m i s i e Tes ti  ng
            eli
andm od ng h as b e d                           ,   c
                       e n one on th e D F -3 w h i h norm ally
                     ,                     tud
h as a range of 2780km andan alti e of 5 5 0km w h en
 l ng
fy i a nom i             c ory     th ep               c
                nal traje t . W i d res s edtraje tory ,th e
                                               87
                   5
D F-3trav els 1, 5 0km at 100km alti e.  tud
      L of           c e tagao d ao) are anoth er op ti
          ted traje tori s (          and                       on
            nes
th at C h i e m i s i                  ons d
                       s leers m ay c i er. A longer range
  alli c s l oes                  cs     l               s l
b s ti m i s i e d not ne e s ariy m ean th e m i s i e w i l    l
  e              ts       m        fc v
b us ed at i m axi um efe ti e range. A longer range
             i
s y s tem , fred on a lof             c        an
                             ted traje tory , c als o s erv e as a
      h c
tec ni al c                               s       ef
                ounterm easure to m i s ile d en s es . L of   ted
trajectories can in creas e reen try s p eed th ereby ,
  om i ati
c p l c ng i               e          on or
                     nterc p t s oluti s f term i           ef
                                                     nal d en s e
s y s tem s or red i th e f
                    uc ng      ootp ri or d end area.88
                                      nt     ef ed
    .              s
  2 E M P w arh ead . PRC engi                   ond ti
                                neers als o are c uc ng
eas b l t     i
f i ii y s tudes on elec           c                E
                        trom agneti puls ew eap ons ( M P)


                               135
           om    ef                              h          gh
to ov erc ed enses . E M P s y s tem s ,s uc as a h i p ow ered
    c             H
m i row av e ( PM ) w arh ead c        , ould n egate s p ace or
          -b                                            s
ground as ed s ens ors th at s up p ort a m i s ile d ens e       ef
     h tec                 ti     ndc                i i
arc i ture. PL A w ri ngs i i ate th at feldng ofan E M P
              s          v         gh      ori
w arh ead i a relati ely h i p ri ty . H PM d i es i           ev c     n
       c               e
p arti ular are v i w ed as a “natural enem y ” of m ore
    h         c        v
tec nologi ally ad anc d m i ie             e
                                      l tari s and an “elec        tronic
trum p c ”( i is h as h ou)89 D ueto c allenges related
           ard danz                .             h                     to
            zng     ev c      th
w eap oni i a d i ew i enough p ow er,a frs t generati i              on
      nes                        i
C h i e H PM w arh ead l kely w ould only be efe ti e             fc v
agai            i ng                 th n          m
      nst radati targets w i i th e i m edate area of     i
 m      t.      ar                 om
i p ac Rad s y s tem s andc m uni ati                     e
                                              c ons c nters w oul       d
  e           m
b th e p ri e c     andd                       h
                        i ates . A s th e tec nology p rogres s es ,
h ow ev er,H PM w arh ead c dac i v e w i er efe t .9 0 Th e
                              s oul       h e        d      fcs
  ev
d elop ers of th e D F -11 SRB M — th e 06 6 B as e— h av e
d onstratedth e m os t i
  em                           nteres t i H PM w arh ead .9 1
                                         n                     s
            dti
      In ad i on to non-nuclear E M P w eap on s , Tai an    w
    s
ob erv ers are c e                               al
                     onc rned about th e p otenti us e of h i   gh
      tud           H        urs
alti e E M P ( E M P) b ts th at us e an ac        tual nuc e l ar
  ev c .       h
d i e Suc a d i e d                                 tud
                       ev c , etonated at an alti e of 4 0
   lom                 av d as      e
ki eters ,w ould oi c ualti s on th eground y etw oul,           d
          gni i ant efe ts on th e i land elec
h av e s i fc          fc           s     s
                                          ’          c
                                                troni s y s tem s .
Th e s oluti          c i          w
             on, ac ordng to Tai an analy s ts , are m i s i s le
  ef              h                         d        ,
d enses , suc as th e Sea-B as ed M i -C ours e th at c         an
                 alli c s l n ts          e
engage th e b s ti m i s ie i i as c nt p h as e andb f      e ore
d etonati 9 2
           on.
      .     s l
    3 M i s i e D ef           i ng
                      ense. B e ji h as an i i               s le
                                              ndgenous m i s i
 ef          ev
d ense d elop m ent p rogram i              ed
                                     ntend to ensure th at at
                on     ts nv
leas t a p orti ofi i entory c                  v     i
                                     ouldsurv i e a frs t s trike.
     na’           h         s l ef
C h i s res earc on m i s i e d enses d               ac
                                               ates b k to th e
                er                                e
19 6 0s . Und th e 6 4 0 Program , th e s p ac and m i s i e s l
 nd         s    c        ad
i us try ’ Se ond A c em y , tradti                       b or
                                       i onally res p onsi le f
         ev                       i         s l ef
SA M d elop m ent,s et out to felda m i s i ed enses y s tem ,
c      s ng
 onsi ti ofa ki    neti ki lv eh i le,h i p ow ered er,s p ac
                         c l      c      gh          las          e
                                       is
early w arn ing, an d target d crim in ati           on s y s tem
 om                  le s
c p onents . W h i th i p rogram w as aband              n
                                                   onedi 19 80,
engi                 i         th    s    f
      neers as s oc ated w i th i efort are s till ac v e.   ti


                                 136
    l m nary res earc on m i s i d ens es w as res um edi
Pre i i                 h      s le ef                    n
                                                       93
                             und und th e86 3Program .
th e19 80s ,atleas t p artly f ed    er
                     c      ad            th
      Th eC A SC Se ondA c em y and eSh angh aiA c em y      ad
          e l gh       h                     ng
of Sp ac fi t Tec nology are p lay i a leadng role i      i         n
    s l ef                 h                        ng
m i s i e d ens e res earc . W es tern rep orti andC h i e      nes
     h c                 ndc
tec ni al journals i i ate th at th e C entral M i i           l tary
                                      u in             or
C om m is s ion h as ap p rov ed f n d g f a 1 0 - y ear
  ev                           or      s l ef
d elop m ental p rogram f a m i s i e d ense s y s tem , to
 nc ud            tes or s l aunc w arni Th e PL A A i
i l e s atelli f m i s i e l            h          ng.               r
       e                v ate
F orc andC A SC ad oc a 15 -y ear,th ree-p h as e ap p roac         h
        s l ef               i         s        i
to m i s i e d ense. Th e frs t s tep i to felda “Patri i   ot-l ke”
                h
s y s tem , s uc as th e H Q-9 , f                 y
                                    ollow ed b res earc and   h
  ev                           ed
d elop m ent on an extend range i                 e
                                           nterc p tor m od eledon
                   s le;        as c onc p
th e PA C -3 m i s i and b i c e tual res earc on a         h
TH A A D -l ke m i -c
            i       d ours e interc p t s y s tem .9 4
                                   e
          nes
    C h i e engi                   oc             ev
                      neers are f us ed on d elop m ent of
 nf
i rared and rado-f               y
                      i requenc s eekers th at c      ould engage
b           i                         alli c s les
  oth m edum ands h ort-range b s ti m i s i . E n gi         neers
       ev      ng                 i
ared elop i s h ort andm edum w av ei raredb   nf              3
                                                          and( -12
   c         oc                                  e
m i rons) f al p lane array s th at w ouldb able to engage
                ce uri
reentry v eh i l s d ng th e m i -c                         i l gh
                                   d ours e p h as e ofth e r fi t
       95
                dti        nf                      oul e
p ath . In ad i on to i rareds eekers th at c db us edto
c               i        s                     c s ls
 ounter m edum and h ort rangeballis ti m i s i e ,th ePRC
h as s tep p edup res earc i            lli
                            h nto m i m eter w av e ( a-b K    and  )
      i i rs m l                                           s l.
am p l f e s i iar to th os e us edon th e PA C -3 m i s i e In
f            c al
 act,a s p e i s tate lab                  li
                           oratory on m i l m eter w av e res earc h
             ls       n       ng              h e       h
w as es tab i h ed i Nanji to h elp ac i v e tec nologi al      c
b reakth rough s .9 6 One c e tual d i f a low er ti r
                             onc p         es gn or              e
   s l ef
m i s i ed ensei          e        op
                    nterc p tor ad ts an i              m li
                                             ntegrated i l m eter
w av e andi rareds eeker as s em b y .9 7
              nf                        l
                      ndc on                nes
    Th ere als o are i i ati s th at C h i e aeros p ac    e
engi                 ni        eas b l t          as early
     neers areexam i ng th ef i ii y ofs p ace-b ed
       ng. c c          ti      ndc             e nd
w arni Te h ni al w ri ngs i i ate th e s p ac i us try i  s
       ng                c fc      h     e       i
w orki to m as ter s p e i i tec nologi s as s oc ated w ith
   s l arly w arni s atelli . Th e Se ondA rti l ry h as
m i s ie e           ng        tes        c        le
 ond ted m od ng and s i ulati of alternati e early
c uc             eli         m       on             v
                         98
       ng     h tec              na
w arni arc i tures . C h i h as a w ell-es tab i h ed ls


                                137
    h
tec nol       as n nf                        c
         ogy b ei i rareds ensors ,w h i h ,w h en p lac done
        tes an etec             s le           m
s atelli , c d t a m i s i alm os t i m edately af   i         ter
       h y etec ng           nf
launc b d ti th ei rared i on f                      ts
                                      radati rom i engi or   ne
m otor p lum e.9 9 In a p otentially relatedp rogram ,th e C h ina
    ad               e
A c em y ofSp ac Tec nol   h         s ev       ng
                                ogy i d elop i a s atelli bte us
 or        nf                op ,      c     c i
f an i rared teles c e w h i h , ac ordng to d i            es gn
      nes     l e          e n             h            i
outli , w i l b p lac d i a geos y c ronous orb t s h ortly
af th e turn ofth e c ntury .100
   ter                    e
                          e          ng              e          s
     4 . C ounters p ac . Negati U.S. s p ac s y s tem s i anoth er
ap p roac to ch               ng s l ef                     nes
                    ounteri m i s i e d enses . C h i e res earc          h
           ev
and d elop m ent on anti                     te      h        e
                                    -satelli tec nologi s h as b e     en
       erw         nc
und ay s i e th e 19 6 0s . Te h ni al li c c          terature sugges ts
              i t       e                          s
th at a drec as c nt A SA T p rogram i und ay i olv i    erw     nv     ng
an as s es s m ent ofv ari           es gn                 or
                               ous d i p rop os als f s eekers and
p rop u ls i    on s y s tem s . A s p art of a m is s ile d en s e ef
c ounterm eas ure p rogram , A SA T op erati               ons w ould b    e
  i c
dre tedagai                      tes n                     i
                    nst s atelli i low earth orb t, suc as th e   h
                                     ns
SB IRS-L ow s y s tem or agai t th eSB IRS-H i s atelli i  gh        tes n
   gh y         p c        i       c c                  em
h i l elli ti al orb ts . Te h ni al p ap ers d onstrates om e
                                           n ev
of th e greates t obs tacles i d elop in g an acti e                    v
c                  e ap b l t               th ev
  ounters p ac c a i i y are w i d elop m ent of a ki                     ll
        c                 i
v eh i le and as s oc ated term i                  d e          eli
                                        nal gui anc . M od ng h as
  e n arri d out on i rared rad and i p uls e rad
be c             e              nf       ,      ar,         m           ar
                                           101
           n         d
term i al gui an ce s y s tem s .                       i
                                                  H arb n In s ti  tute of
      h
Tec nol                     i ng        v      ty
              ogy and B e ji Uni ers i of A s tronauti s and        c
                c or
A eronauti s , f exam p le, h av e c                e           eli
                                              arri dout m od ng and
   m           on
s i ulati ofv ari                    e nterc p t c
                          ous s p ac i        e ontrol andterm i       nal
     d e
gui anc s y s tem s . One c e t i                     uc s
                                    onc p ntrod e s ev eral s m all
s ol dm otors f orb tal c
     i              or      i      ontrol s tab l z on.102 Th ere als o
                                                 ii ati
            en       onfrm
h av e b e unc i edrep orts th at th e C h i A c em y of   na ad
         e
Sp ac Tec nol    h          C         s ev           ng
                     ogy ( A ST) i d elop i nanom eter-s i ed          z
             ti           tes
“p aras i c s atelli ” th at c                    unc on n
                                        ould f ti i an A SA T
m od 103e.
   E n gi              ond teds tude to c
         neers h av e c uc          is      ounter s atellite
d c s as w ell.104 Th e PRC h as s tep p edup i eforts to
 e oy                                           ts f
 i ngui h d c s f
ds ti     s                         tes           y arri d
              e oy rom real s atelli . One s tud , c      e
      y
out b th e N ati           v    ty
                  onal Uni ers i of D ef           h
                                          ense Tec nol ,ogy
determ i    th       s    l m ouldb s olv ed rough us eof
        ned at th i p rob e c        e       th

                                   138
at leas t th ree grounds tati        ng nf
                              ons usi i rareds ensors and
                     105
n eural netw orks .           na’
                         C h i s exi ti                 ki
                                       s ng s p ace trac n g
            an etec
netw ork c d t and            k              tes th    fc ent
                         trac m os t s atelli w i s ufi i
ac urac f targeti p urp os es .106
   c     y or        ng
           na’ es re i a i                e
      C h i s d i to feld drect as c nt A SA T as s etm ay b     e
afii           th
    fl atedw i a p rogram i           ed                      h
                               ntend to s u p p ort th e launc of
                te onstellati . A s m all s ol df
s m all s atelli c             ons             i ueledlaunc      h
       c
v eh i le,m os t li        eri     v             1, l e
                   kely a d v ati eofth eD F-2 w i lb able to
       e                s n     i       m            e      i ng’
p lac s m all p ay load i orb t at a ti e andp lac ofB e ji s
  h       ng.
c oos i C h i i             s     i              i
                 na ntend to feldth es e m ob le, s ol df i ueled
         h      c      y 005         uc d z
launc v eh i les b 2 . Red e s i e and c p lexi         om      ty
            or as             ac ng m
allow s f f ter m anuf turi ti e and p rod ti i          uc on n
    gni i ant num b rs .107 C h i e engi
s i fc               e           nes                    ond ti
                                           neers are c uc ng
  onc p              is              e as d
c e tual s tude on a s p ac b e s atelli trac ng      te     ki
s y s tem th at w ould s erv e as a p otenti            m
                                                ally i p ortan t
c p onent ofany A SA T s y s tem .108
  om
        i ng         s nv     ng n        ev
     B e ji als o i i es ti i th e d elop m ent of h i          gh
                             er e n ondti
p ow eredlas ers th at,und c rtai c i ons , c         ouldafe tfc
      c om                        te             h
op ti al c p onents ofs atelli s y s tem s , suc SB IRS-L ow .
Th e 19 9 8 Rep ort to C ongres s on PRC M i              blte
                                             litary C ap a i i i s
(                   ci       2
 pursuant to Se t on 12 6 of th e FY9 8 Nati       onal D ef  ense
          z on t)
A uth ori ati A c s tates “C h i al         y
                                    na read m ay p os s es s th e
  ap b l t         am      ,    er    c fc ondti
c a i i y to d age und s p e i i c i ons, op ti al             c
                     tes                        l      am
s ensors on s atelli th at are v ery v ulnerab eto d ageb        y
                         v       na’ urrent i
las ers . H ow ev er, gi en C h i s c                     n
                                               nteres t i las er
    h     ogy t s                                    i ng
tec nol , i i reas onable to as s um e th at B e ji w oul        d
  ev
d elop a w eap on th at c             es
                               ould d troy s atelli         n
                                                     tes i th e
future.”109
                -
      5 . M ulti A xis Stri                d ti
                              kes . In ad i on to tech n i al   c
c                                     s       n ng
  oun term eas u res , th e PL A i exam i i op erati al       on
m eth od        e ntend to p enetrateU.S.,alli d or f e l
           ologi s i     ed                         e , ri ndy
     s l ef                            c
m i s i e d ense s y s tem s . Th e Se ondA rti                na’
                                                llery andC h i s
        e         s l nd
s p ac andm i s ie i us try h av e c uc                 eli
                                         ond tedm od ng and
   m        on            na’ b l t
s i ulati to tes t C h i s a i i y to b                          d
                                           reak th rough th e w i e
                    c               s      ef        ep
range of p roje ted U.S. m i s ile d en s e d loy m ents .
        eli
M od ng h as been c              e              nv
                           arri d out th at i olv es v ari      ous



                              139
 om i
c b nati ons of surf           ac , r-to-surf e s ea-to-
                    ace-to-surf e ai        ac ,
    ac , r-to-ai and alai d ensem i s i es y s tem s .110
surf e ai       r    nav     r ef      s l
                          m                    h     z ,
      A m ong th em os t i p ortant ares y nc roni ed m ulti s    -axi
s tri              und                 nc p           c
      kes as a f am ental p ri i le of Se ond A rti l ry          le
  onv
c enti              oc ne d i
            onal d tri ( uod an, d angxi    uof        ang, tongs h i
      )        i             e e on           m ng
tuji . A s s oc atedare d c p ti andti i m eas ures th at
  oul                         on
c d ensure p enetrati of at leas t a large p orti of a         on
                  nv
s alv o. Th es e i olv e c         i
                             oordnated launc es fh             if
                                                       rom dferent
         h   i              us      nf         i
launc azm uth s and eofi rared“ds rup ti to c us e     on”      onf
D SP s atelli               om i ate enem y attac op erati
               tes and c p l c                         k           ons.
                     ol        nc ud l                e
A n oth er m eth od ogy i l es c os ely s p ac d s alv os th at
c                  v                         m
  ould take ad antage of reload ti e. L aunc es f           h      rom
   if          i          om i          th
dferent azm uth s ,c b nedw i us eofi rared i on   nf        radati
    i       on, ouldc us e enem y s atelli early w arni
“ds rup ti ” c            onf                      te                ng
                  om i ate                  k           ons
s y s tem s andc p l c enem y attac op erati . A n oth er
  onc p nv v                                   ke
c e t i ol es th e us e of tw o s tri w av es , th e frs t          i
“s c reeni             c               ng s le ef
           ng” th e s e ondexh aus ti m i s i d enses , b f       e ore
th ey h av e ti e to reload111
                m               .
     Ant -Radati M i s i e D e e op m e A n as y m m etri al
         i       i on       s l     v l      nt.                     c
          h
ap p roac to c             ng s le ef             nc ud
                  ounteri m i s i d enses i l es attac ng           ki
     ti al        es      th n          s          ef
cri c n od w i i th e m i s ile d en s e s y s tem ,
       c              ar                        s
p arti ularly rad s y s tem s . Th e PRC i acqui ng and   ri         /or
  ev       ng
d elop i an anti             i on      s l A           ,
                         -radati m i s i e ( RM ) suc as th eh
       an
Rus s i K h -3               s ntend to negate early w arni
                  1P,th at i i        ed                              ng
       i ontrolrad s y s tem s th at are ab et d
andfre c                 ar                       l o etect and      /or
trac b s ti m i s i e d ng v ari
      k alli c s l s uri                  ous p h as es of fi t.112
                                                               l gh
                     s
Th ere are p ers i tent rum ors ofPL A p roc       urem ent or joi    nt
      uc on
p rod ti arrangem ent on th e K h -3                      c
                                               1P, w h i h C h i e nes
engi                          c fc       ev
      neers note w as s p e i i ally d elop ed to c        ounter th e
              s                 ar,
PA TRIOT’ M PQ-5 3 rad and A E G IS SPY-1D p h as ed
array rad                 n s ef               us       al
                ar. C h i a’ d en s e in d tri com p lex,
     c fc                  rd ad            th
s p e i i ally th e Th i A c em y w i s up p ort f           rom th e
       i
H arb n Insti                 h    ogy s              v
                 tute of Tec nol , i aggres s i ely p ursui           ng
                                                             113
  ep
d loy m ent ofa long range anti            i on
                                      -radati m i s i es l.




                                 14 0
                   i         s
F oreign C oop erat on on M i s ile D efense
C ounterm easures .

                    n i ati
     Th ere are i d c on s of Rus s i         an Sp ace A gen c      y
      s      e n       nes     ev                   alli c
as s i tanc i C h i e d elop m ent of b s ti m i s i e          s l
  ef
d en s e c                                    ati
             ounterm easures , p erh ap s d ng b k to th eac
    d                   e                on e
m i -19 9 0s or earli r. C oop erati b tw een C h i and      na
        a n        i of              m s les
Rus s i i th efeld s p aceand i s i w as f ali ed nto orm    z i
         e
a s eri s of agreem ents betw een C A SC and th e Rus s i          an
       e        i
s p ac agenc es w h en rep res entati es fv                nes
                                                 rom C h i e and
       e        e nd       e
Sov i t s p ac i us tri s s i                ni al
                                 gned an i ti agreem ent i           n
M os c  ow i M ay 19 9 0 on 10 c erati e p roje ts .114 Th e
             n                        oop      v          c
        ons p            i ii
relati h i w as s ol dfed w h en C A SC and th e Rus s i           an
        e
Sp ac A genc s i                fc al        ol or
                y gnedan ofi i p rotoc f th e s h ari of        ng
       e h            n      .     s
s p ac tec nology i 19 9 2 Th i agreem ent w as rai edagai s         n
         ei       l uri           d             n’ s t
as a d l v erab e d ng Pres i ent Yelts i s v i i to B e ji     i ng,
  ut          ter
b only af th etw o c              e gned no-frs t-us ep led
                           ountri s s i      a      i             ge.
A f  ollow -on agreem ent w as s i         y      nes
                                   gnedb C h i e andRus s i        an
       e fcals                            nc ud
s p ac of i i . Th e agreem ent i l ed ten areas of
                    n      i
coop eration , i clud ng s atellite n av i          gation, s p ace
        il e
surv e l anc , p ropuls i              te om           c ons
                           on, s atelli c m uni ati , joi          nt
  es gn f
d i eforts , m ateri , i   als ntelli        e
                                        genc s h ari          i    fc
                                                       ng, s c enti i
                  h                   e
p ers onnel exc anges , ands p ac s y s tem s tes ti             nes
                                                        ng. C h i e
        e ndc         oop      on
s ourc s i i ate c erati als o i l edc   nc ud ounteri U.S.  ng
m i s i e d ense p rogram s .115
    s l ef

C ONC L USIONS

     Th e Uni tedStates h as exp res s edi i              ev
                                            ts ntent to d elop
  ef         ap            ef i
d en s es c able of d endng agai s t li i   n               s le
                                                 m ted m i s i
attac fks rom a rogue s tate or f                   cd
                                         rom an ac i ental or
            z           h           s l ef
unauth ori ed launc . U.S. m i s i e d ense engi       neers are
  ev
d elop i                   ef           ap         n
           ng lay ered d en s es , c able of i tercep ti      ng
    s les of any range at ev ery s tage of fi t: b t,
m i si                                             l gh     oos
    d ours e andterm i
m i -c       ,                             ef
                          nal. L ay eredd enses w ouldp erm i   t
     uc ons i nuc e f e ,th us c
red ti        n      l ar orc s               b ng
                                         ontri uti to s trategi c
      ii y           ef         l e ntrod e i rem entally ,
s tab l t . Th es e d enses w i l b i        uc d nc
  ep     ng ap b l t e                h
d loy i c a i i i s as th e tec nology m atures andth en
    dng             blte
ad i new cap a i i i s ov er ti e.  m


                                14 1
      nc            h        s l ef          e      n
   Si e res earc on m i s i e d enses b gan i th e 19 80s ,
B eijing h as been concern ed about th e p oten tial
    erm ni            i i ted
und i ng ofth e r l m i nuc e d                      e       ,
                                      l ar eterrenc ,and m ore
   e          i      ii y
rec ntly ,th e r ab l t to d  eter andc      e i ors
                                         oerc ne gh b s uc as  h
   w                         ab l t     ts
Tai an. To ensure th ev i ii y ofi nuc e d    l ar eterrent and
 or ts           i      nv
f i exp andng i entory of c enti       onv    onal SRB M s and
              i ng         m
M RB M s ,B e ji h as i p lem entednum erous m easures to
c                 s l ef
 ounter U.S. m i s i ed ensep rogram s . Th es em easures are
               nst                            s le ef
targetedagai s ensors th at s up p ort m i s i d enses and
agai         s l ef
     nst m i s i e d en s e i         e
                               nterc p tors th em s elv es . Oth er
 ni ati        nc ud               ev
i ti v es i l e A SA T d elop m en t as w ell as an
 ndgenous m i s i ed ensep rogram th at c
i i             s l ef                               ens
                                               ould ures om e
m odc                          ati             e
     i um ofas s uredretali on. A num b r of c l i     onc us ons
 an e raw
c b d n f          rom th e range of m easures und ay to erw
    erm ne             s le ef
und i U.S. m i s i d ense p rogram s .

     na’
C h i s C ounterm easure C h allenge.

           nes            h            ev
      C h i e res earc andd elop m ent of m i s i d ense  s le ef
c                          s              v
  ounterm eas ures i exten s i e and ap p ears relati ely            v
         s c      .
s op h i ti ated H ow ev er, c        ounterm eas ures i          uc
                                                          ntrod e an
    d
ad ed elem ent of c p lexi i om                               y om
                                        ty nto an alread c p lex
                    te gni i ant i es tm ent, PRC c
s y s tem . D es p i s i f c                nv                   ounter-
m easures on l                                 c s ls            i
                   onger-range ballis ti m i s i e are unl kely to
             e th                h               th
keep p ac w i U.S. tec nology . W i m ore th an 3 y ears          0
          e e
exp eri nc , th e Uni                          s           ’
                                                           s
                              ted States i th e w orld lead i       er n
c                           h      ogy         h
  ounterm easure tec nol . Suc exp erti e naturally i   s                s
integrated i     nto c   ounteri                     on   d
                                     ng p enetrati ai s . C h i e    nes
engi             l ac h
       neers w i l f e c allenges as th ey attem p t to p ut i         nto
p ractice m an y of th e concep ts d cribed abov e. es
                          an e m
C ounterm easures c b ti e c                        ng,
                                             onsum i andc red ean      uc
       lab e        e           i
av ai l s p ac andw e gh t. A s a result, p enetrati ai s         on d
  oul ow             orm        ei
c dl er p erf anc (.e. range anda c                         y
                                                     c urac )or f eaorc
      uc on n                  i             e f e
red ti i pay load(.e. a trad of b tw een a d c or a             e oy
M IRV )   .
     m
   Si p lec                    h     h f     em
           ounterm easures ,suc as c af and p loy m ent
       m ted num b r of d c s , l kely alread h av e b e
of a li i         e      e oy    i           y        en
 nc           nto        s les     h            1
i orp oratedi s om em i s i ,s uc as th e D F -2 M RB M .


                                  14 2
Integrati                        s c
             on of m ore s op h i ti ated c   oun term eas u res ,
                h               e oy    as
h ow ev er, s uc as balloon d c s , f t burn m otors , and
  oos                      ng     i         e
b t p h as em aneuv eri arel kely to b m any y ears aw ay .
       an      h c         s    e                   i m
Rus s i tec ni al as s i tanc m ay h as ten th e r ti eli     ne.
         les
Regard s ,as new c                         om       i
                        ounterm eas ures c e on l ne ov er th e
                         ted             d
next 10 y ears ,th eUni States s h oul beabletokeep p ace,
      c           v
p arti ularly gi en th e general requi                 or
                                            rem ent f C A L T
   s l es gners to c uc fi t tes ts . Th e lay ered
m i s ie d i                 ond t l gh
  ef                h s                        fc v
d ense ap p roac i p erh ap s th e m os t efe ti e m eans to
     u                f
red ce th e ef ectiv en es s of m is s ile d en s e      ef
counterm easures .
                                        d     ge    nst
     N ev erth eles s ,th e U.S. s h oul h ed agai unf    ores een
b                    n
  reakth rough s i PRC c                          h   ogy
                              ounterm eas uretec nol . C h i sna’
     h         c
tec nologi al p rogres s , Rus s i                s
                                         an as s i tan ce to PRC
                         i ng’             ty         d
p rogram s , and B e ji s p rop ensi to p rov i e tech ni al    c
      s     e                        s l ev
as s i tanc to rogue s tate m i s i e d elop m ent all requi     re
c       ul       tori          ng
 aref m oni ng. Tes ti ofnew p enetrati ai s s h oulon d          d
  e as ly      s
b e i ob erv edv i nati    a               h c
                                  onal tec ni al m eans.
                 e                               re
    It s h ouldb notedth at am ong th e enti range ofU.S.
   s le ef                                  c ali
m i s i d en s e p rogram s , PRC s p e i s ts s eem m os t
  onc rnedabout th e d l m ent ofSB IRS-L ow s atelli .
c e                        ep oy                            tes
           or ni al ep               uri
Slatedf i ti d loy m ent d ng th e latter p art ofth e
  e ad about th es am eti e as th e PRC ’ new generati of
d c e(                        m              s             on
       - u                 ed
s olid f eled exten d range IC B M s are f eld )       i ed ,
                                al       erc
SB IRS-L ow h as th ep otenti to und ut an enti c    re ategory
       nes ounterm easures . Sp e i s ts note th at th e d
ofC h i ec                            c ali                 ual
                             ki      ap
s urv eillan ce an d trac n g c ability of SB IRS- L ow
 i rared
(nf         and elec          c        d uc          fci
                     tro-op ti al)w oul red eth eefe t v enes s
of c                                            h
     ounter- s urv eillance m eas ures , s u c as elec   troni c
c                          ar
  ounterm eas ures , rad s tealth , and th erm al s h roud .  s
Th eref    ore, greater em p h as is m u s t be p laced on
c ounter-i       e                         om i     on
            nterc p t m eas ures , anda c b nati ofd c s  e oy
andth erm al s h roud .116
                        s

      d         on              i     s
Planne E xp ansi ofPRC B allis t c M i s ile F orces .

            i
     Th e d s cus s i           oc                 c
                     on abov e f us es on tech n i al an d
             c ounterm eas ures th at th ePRC m ay ad t. To
as y m m etri alc                                    op

                              14 3
                   s c                on d i ted
augm ent s op h i ti atedp enetrati ai s ,l m i exp ansi            on
       na’ alli c s l orc s                e xp
ofC h i s b s ti m i s i ef ei to b e ectedd endng       , ep      i
            op                  s l ef               h tec
on th e s c e ofth e U.S. m i s i e d ense arc i ture. Th e
   c             le s                        c
Se ond A rti l ry ’ ars enal of s trategi and c enti    onv       onal
  alli c s l s              y s      c
b s ti m i s i e alread i exp e tedto grow sub tanti       s      ally
th rough th e i        uc on                   s c
                  ntrod ti ofm ore s op h i ti ateds i o-b ed l as
                h                      i                     h
IC B M s , s uc as th e D F-5 A ; m ob le s y s tem s , s uc as th e
      1                                1A
D F-3 andth e longer range D F-3 ; andth e JL -2 SL B M .
                      on     e
F u rth er exp an s i , b y ond c                             s
                                       urren t p lan s , i to be
     cp        .                 op i              d e i ted ue
anti i ated H ow ev er,th es c el kely w oul b l m i d
      i ng’ es re            d           ng
to B e ji s d i to av oi p res enti a th reateni i age      ng m
to i ne gh b and c
    ts i ors            e onom i p artners around ew orld117
                                 c                     th          .
      i ng h                        ts     l ar alli c s le
If B e ji c oos es to exp and i nuc e b s ti m i s i
 orc ,
f e th em os t li                       e o nc
                    kely route w ouldb t i reas ep rod ti       uc on,
  e
b y ond c                                1         ts
            urrent p lans, of th e D F-3 andi longer range
v ariant.
           i us              y 005     i ng s       c
    A s ds c s edabov e,b 2 ,B e ji i exp e tedto h av e
  4                       0       1                   d
2 D F-5 IC B M s ; 10-2 D F-3 IC B M s th at s h oul rep lac    e
        c
th e Se ondA rti        s          m          oz
                  llery ’ ap p roxi ately a d en D F -4 IC B M s ;
                                 e         s        ng
andp erh ap s th es am enum b r ofJL -2 ,as s um i th e Ty p e
         m     ne s       uc d c i
9 4 s ub ari i p rod e ac ordng to s c ed       h ule. A t leas t
          dti            1 ri e 10-2 m i s i ) c
one ad i onal D F-3 b gad (               0     s les ould b    e
 i ed y 010. Ini al d l m ent ofth e D F-3 c db
feld b 2               ti ep oy                     1A oul e
      c      n
exp e tedi th e 2 -2005 010 ti ef         , th
                                 m ram e w i as m any as ten
       1A                   by e ng n           on y
D F-3 IC B M s os tensi l b i i op erati b th e endof
       e ad      th
th e d c e. W i as m any as 100 new IC B M s enteri th e ng
       s nv                                           s n fc
PL A ’ i entory ov er th e next 10 y ears ,th e PRC i i efe t
               oubi ts                     l ar alli c s l s
m ore th an d l ng i ars enal ofnuc e b s ti m i s i e
able to range targets th rough out th e Uni     tedStates . Th is
           on               e     ng      e nd
exp ansi ap p ears to b taki p lac i ep end ofU.S.   ent
            i    i ted s le ef
p lans to feldl m i m i s i d enses .
            i                   on               s
    Up gradng all or a p orti of th e PRC ’ D F -5 f e     orc
s truc        th         s                  al
      ture w i M IRV s i anoth er p otenti res p ons e s h ould
           e i on e        e     o             c fc
a C M C d c s i b m ad to d s o. Th e s p e i i num b r of e
M IRV s p er D F-5 c not b d
                     an        e eterm i  ned at th i ti e.118
                                                     s m
                                 s l ef
Pros p ects th at a lay ered m i s i e d ense s y s tem c  ould
 nc ud       oos
i l e a b t-p h as e i          e      ap b l t ould d p en
                           nterc p t c a i i y c        am
       nc nti         ep             s                 ef
any i e v e to d loy M IRV ’ . B oos t-p h as e d en s es

                                14 4
           es          s ls        n l gh
w ouldd troy th e m i s i e early i fi t, w h en th ey are
          s b       ef          an            i           s
m os t v i i le andb ore th ey c releas e th e r w arh ead .

   s
M i s ile D ef               ng’ x
              enses andB eiji s Si Sp ecious
A rgum ents .

       nc             y            i ng’       h c
    Si e th e earl 19 9 0s ,B e ji s tec ni al andd tri        oc nal
                       en
res p onses h av e b e supported b a c    y           i
                                                 oordnated f i   ore gn
    iy                    a am      gn
p ol c andp rop agand c p ai to i luenc i   nf       e nternati     onal
    ni
op i on ands h ap e th e d b              th n
                               e ate w i i th e U.S. regardng         i
   s l ef                  ts     l ar
m i s i e d enses . A s i nuc e andc enti     onv       onal balli ti s c
   s l nv                         i ng’
m i s ie i entory grow s , B e ji s p olitical lead h i h asers p
 orm            a       e                       nst s l ef
f ulated num b r ofargum ents agai m i s i ed enses
                as
th at are b ed on h alf                                m i i ati
                              -truth s and ov er-si p l fc ons.
   rs       i ng                    s le ef
F i t, B e ji argues th at m i s i d enses w i l c e an    l aus
            e        ac n
arm s rac . In f t, i th e c enti  onv      onal m ii l tary c  ontext,
            e                   aus     y         ds
arm s rac s generally arec edb one s i e’ rap i b ld         d ui up
i of en s i e cap ab l ti s .119 One could argue th at an
 n     f      v          ii e
   c                      e        en        erw
ac eleratedarm s rac h as b e und ay i th e Tai an     n            w
       t nce th e early 19 9 0s . Un d utti
Strai s i                                      erc               i ng’
                                                        ng B e ji s
                ng f      v     v
ov erw h elm i ofensi e ad antage th rough v i                 ef
                                                        able d enses
                   e ros        t      ii y y       s ng
w ouldenh anc c s - Strai s tab l t b rai i th e c ts of         os
    ng orc .        ti      s l ef             om i
us i f e A c v e m i s i e d enses , c b nedw i oth er        th
          h            d uc h              ev         l ty
ap p roac es , w oul red e t e p erc i edutii of b s ti          alli c
   s ls            i ng’
m i s i e as B e ji s p ref   erredtool ofc        i
                                               oerc on.
       c     ly      i ng                          s l ef
    Se ond , B e ji as s erts th at U.S. m i s i e d en s e
                 l
p rogram s w i l v i                  -B    s c     s l A
                      olate th e A nti alli ti M i s i e ( B M )
                              s m ,           s
Treaty . H ow ev er, at th i ti e th ere i no i            on
                                                     ntenti to
vi                                c
   olate th e A B M Treaty , w h i h w as a bilateral agreem ent
  e
b tw een M os c    ow and W as h i ngton to h elp m anage and
     ii e                  c i             ons p       c
s tab l z th e s trategi b lateral relati h i . B e aus e th e
                 s         f t
A B M Treaty i an arti ac ofth eC oldW ar,th e treaty need     s
     e jus
to b ad ted eli i or m nated                    i            en
                                altogeth er. A dalogueh as b e
 ni atedw i M os c to ensure th at s uc a m ov e w oul b
i ti          th        ow                    h             d e
      e th
m ad w i th e c                oth
                    onsent ofb p arti s .e
       i ng            ts    s    i                     s le
    B e ji als o p os i a m i leadng argum ent th at m i s i
  ef                                           ep
d en s es w ill en courage Taiw an es e in d en d ce   en
      m                          m          ac        e d
s enti ent. Th ere are m ore i p ortant f tors b s i es

                                 14 5
  ef                an     lam           w      nd
d enses th at f th e f es ofTai anes e i ep end e          enc .
            iis
PRC p ol c e th at al e              w
                          i nate Tai an are m os t relev ant.
       d        ti     s       ef
B es i es , ac v e m i s ile d en s es w ould not enc   ourage
 nd           enc      m
i ep end e s enti ent any m ore th an oth er w eap on
                  h            i
s y s tem s , s uc as F - 16 fgh ters , PA TRIOT G ui ancd e
          e M s les               ri
E n h anc d i s i ,or PF G -2f gates . One als o c ouldargue
            w
th at Tai an’ i i               ap i or ef
                 s ndgenous c ac ty f d ense i onl a s      y
    nor ac       nf     i       lc      m         i
m i f tor i luencng p ubi s enti ent regardng greater
                 nc , c i                       e
autonom y s i e ac ordng to s om e s ourc s , Tai an’    w    s
  om       c iy s
d es ti p ol t i largely uni                n ef      s
                                 nteres tedi d ens ei s ues .
                                         ti     s l ef
    PRC s p okes m en argue th at ac v e m i s i e d enses can
  e        f       v          h
b us edofensi ely . M uc to th e c                   s l ef
                                         ontrary ,m i s i e d enses
      ef     v
are d ensi e— th ey th reaten no one. Ifany th i b l i ng, uidng
   fc v     ef           l      uc                alli c s les
efe ti e d enses w i lred eth e v alueofb s ti m i s i ,
                         nc nti      or      i ev
and th us rem ov e i e v es f th e r d elop m ent and
     i e on. One c
p rol f rati                                 onv     ng
                         ouldargue th at c erti up p er ti r     e
i      e
 nterc p tors to surf e              ac       s l s ould enable
                          ac -to-s urf e m i s i e c
s tri           ns
     kes agai t targets at long ranges . H ow ev er, us i        ng
i      e         n     s
 nterc p tors i th i w ay i not c t efi i
                                s     os             ue
                                            fc ent d to p ay l  oad
 i tati              s h                      fc v
l m i ons. It i c eap er andm ore efe ti e to d elop a      ev
  edc          alli c s le                            s l ef
d i ated b s ti m i s i th an to us e a m i s i e d ense
i      e
 nterc p tor.
     Ac                 s               s           s l ef
        orollary to th i argum ent i th at m i s i ed enses can
     ed f        v                h        alli c s les
s h i l ofensi e as s ets , suc as b s ti m i s i or s tri             ke
   rc t.        s           ti      l              i nc on e
ai raf Th i s up p os i on b urs th e ds ti ti b tw een
   f     v         ef     v     ti
ofensi e andd ensi e ac on— w h eth er or not a s y s tem i             s
   f     v         ef     v    ep     s
ofensi e or d ensi e d end up on th e us er’ i                s ntent,
s trategy , and d tri               i ng
                     oc ne. B e ji als o argues th at U.S.
       s on         s l ef                      w
p rov i i of m i s i e d enses to Tai an w ould transf                 er
    h     ogi s      ul       alli c s le ev
tec nol e us ef to b s ti m i s i d elop m ent. Th i                    s
as s erti  on as s um es th at Tai an dw          oes n ot h av e th e
 ndgenous c a i y to d elop th e ne e s ary tec nol ;
i i             ap c t         ev                 cs           h    ogy
            e li
w ould b w i l ng to v i                 s l         h
                             olate M i s i e Tec nology C ontrol
      m                        e        e
Regi e-relatedas s uranc s m ad to th e U.S. gov ernm ent;
                               l o
andw ouldtake th e troub e t rev ers e engi           neer p rop uls ion,
     d e                     i           h
gui anc ,or oth er as s oc atedtec nol e .     ogi s



                                 14 6
          nes                         s le ef
     C h i e argum ents th at m i s i d enses c         ouldlead ato
    l tari ati              e                      t.
m ii z on of s p ac h av e s om e m eri H ow ev er, s i e         nc
  ep                         i       c       s
d loy m ent of th e frs t re onnai s ance and m i i            l tary
  om        c on             tes
c m uni ati s s atelli ,s p ac h as l  e              en    oi f
                                               ong b e exp l ted or
m ii                             s          ons p e
    l tary p urp os es . Th ere i a relati h i b tw een m i s i  s le
  ef
d ense andA SA T i               e                        y
                          nterc p tors . If s up p orted b a rob t us
        h     qui ti                   ki
s earc , ac s i on, and trac ng netw ork, up p er ti r              e
    d ours es y s tem s c
m i -c                          b        to     ke
                           ould eus ed s tri s om es atelli i   tes n
                 i        nes      s             h
low earth orb t. C h i e ob erv ers , suc as D u Xi          angw an
f                na       ad
 rom th e C h i A c em y of E n gi                 ng       c
                                            neeri Ph y s i s , h av e
notedth at i          e ng            tes s         e
               nterc p ti s atelli i eas i r th an engagi           ng
               c
reentry v eh i les .
    Fi                                                 s on
         nally , th e PRC h as argued th at p rov i i of ac v e   ti
   s l ef                       w
m i s i e d en s es to Tai an w ould “v i          olate” th e Th ree
C om m uni     qués . Th e Th ree C om m uni      qués are p arallel
s tatem en ts of p olicy th at h av e little s tan d n g i     i     n
internati                      s on       s l ef
             onal law . Prov i i ofm i s i e d enses w ouldnot
“v iolate” th e 19 82 C om m uni      qué any m ore th an oth er
                                  s
w eap on s y s tem s . A s A s s i tant Sec retary of State Joh n
     dd
H ol ri ge p oi                n s
                    ntedout i h i A ugus t 19 82 C ongres s i     onal
       m                                          uc
tes ti ony , th e U.S. agreem ent to red e arm s s ales to
     w
Tai an w as c       onti               i ng’         e ul
                        ngent up on B e ji s p eac f ap p roac to h
          ng           w     s     ,             h
res olv i th e Tai an i s ue generally c arac z b i     teri ed y ts
   l tary p os ture drected agai
m ii                       i                    w
                                       nst Tai an. A s H old d   ri ge
           n s           m           s n
noted i h i tes ti ony , a ri e i th e m i           litary th reat to
     w                c            b c             e y
Tai an th eoreti ally w ould eac om p ani db a ri ei U.S.    s n
   c ty           s      e n c anc           th
s e uri as s i tanc , i ac ord e w i U.S. d es ti l       om     c aw
      er            w
und th e Tai an Relati          ons A ct.
        i ng                    s on       ti        s l ef
     B e ji argues th at p rov i i ofac v e m i s i e d enses
        w               v                w         ef
to Tai an w ouldrev i e th e U.S.-Tai an d ense alli e         anc ,
      erm ni
und i ng th e f             ati
                       ound on of U.S.-PRC relati            ons as
              n                      qué         h
s p elledout i th e 19 79 C om m uni . Suc an argum ent i          s
  as
b ed on th e f                      on                 w
                  aulty as s um p ti th at a Tai an m i s i     s le
  ef
d en s e arch itecture w ould requi s om e f  re            orm of
op erati  onal c           ty     th                e
                onnectiv i w i U.S. s p ac -bas ed early
        ng       om
w arni and c m and and c                                     le
                                   ontrol s y s tem s . W h i D SP
early w arni c                   e       fc v
              ng ould enh anc th e efe ti enes s of m i s i     s le
  ef
d en s es , s y s tem s s u ch as TH A A D can op erate

                                14 7
                        n
auton om ous ly agai s t SRB M s . E arly w arni    ng rad ar
             an                    or        te
s y s tem s c s up p lant th e needf s atelli early w arning.

   s
M i s ile D ef                w        t
              ense in th e Tai an Strai .

          an e
    A s c b s een f                                  na’          ti
                        rom th es eargum ents ,C h i s op p os i on
        s le ef           s e
to m i s i d enses i v i w edlargely th rough th e c              ti
                                                              ogni v e
    s            w            s c s ls
p ri m of Tai an. B alli ti m i s i e are a p ol t c and  i i al     ,
 nc        ngl
i reas i y ,m ii    l tary trum p c     i      ed
                                    ard ntend to s tem p ol ti ali c
                n      w
m ov em ent i Tai an tow ard greater autonom y . A t th e
            m          n s             c
s am e ti e, C h i a’ s trategi nuclear f                        f
                                                      orce af ects
  os e i alc
c t-b neft c ulati         ons of regi                      h
                                       onal p lay ers , s uc as th e
      ted              Jap
Uni States and an,as th ey c            ontem p latei  nterv enti  on.
In th eory ,W as h i            iy                    ee i
                     ngton pol c m akers w ouldb l s s l kely to
i              f      s
 nterv enei th e ri ks ofes c         on          gh      i ng
                                 alati w ere h i . B e ji h as a
      i            i y ut
no-frs t-us e p ol c , b regi     onal ac       an         e
                                         tors c not b as s ured
          i ng                         l ar
th at B e ji w ould not us e nuc e w eap ons to retali             ate
again s t f    oreign in terv en tion, p articularly i th at   f
i             on nv
 nterv enti i olv ed s tri      kes agai  nst m iil tary targets on
th e m ai                 te
          nlandop p os i Tai an.w
     SRB M s , com bin ed w ith certain ty p es of
c                                     w    s    s le ef
 oun term eas ures , p res en t Tai an ’ m i s i d en s e
              th gni i ant h                        al or
p lanners w i s i fc c allenges . Th ep otenti f large
    d z                    l gh  m            ap      m
rai s i es ; th e s h ort fi t ti e ofSRB M s ( p roxi ately 7
m i        or                 l           ;        d
    nutes f th e 6 00 ki om eter D F-15 ) andw i e range of
       k     i                                 s le ef
attac az m uth s w ould s tres s an y m i s i d en s e
    h tec
arc i ture.
            te           h              w
    D es p i th es e c allenges ,Tai an’ i              n     s c
                                            s nteres t i balli ti
   s l ef              an e xp c                  th
m i s i ed enses c b e e tedto grow w i th e th reat. A
     es        s le ef
m od t m i s i d en s e arc i ture c h tec                uc
                                                 ould red e th e
   fc v
efe ti enes s of l m i                      alli c s l s n
                      i tedPRC us e of b s ti m i s i e i a
c     i       r am
 oerc v e ai c p ai                  dti
                           gn. In ad i on to landands ea-b edas
          e                    ep oy         onv
low er ti r s y s tem s ,th ed l m ent ofc enti      onal M RB M s
               ed
andextend range SRB M s i si fc                          e i
                                     n gni i ant num b rs l kely
   l ri           w
w i ld v e Tai an’ i               n      as m d ours em i s i
                       s nteres t i sea-b ed i -c            s le
  ef
d ense andTH A A D .




                                14 8
                       ef          nst         ale d xc us v
     H ow ev er,to d endagai large-sc rai s , e l i e
     anc            ti      s l ef
reli e on ac v e m i s i e d enses w il b i              fc ent to
                                               l e nsufi i
   f                        ng v                i ng
ofs et th e ov erw h elm i ad antages B e ji h old w i i s    th ts
          i                  alli c s l s
exp andng ars enal ofb s ti m i s i e . A s a res ult,Tai an    w
  an e xp c                    op               c
c b e e ted to ad t as y m m etri al ap p roac es to        h
                 ti       s l ef                   nc ud
augm ent ac v e m i s i e d enses . Th es e i l e p as s i e       v
  ef                       om i ate           ng
d ensem eas ures to c p l c targeti and anc ng i     enh     i ts
  blt                 n
a i i y to sustai or re ons tic      tute op erati      ter
                                                  ons af a frs t  i
     ke.                m               w     orc
s tri E v en m orei p ortant,Tai an f ep lanners c b          an e
       c          nv       n    ti     ef
exp e ted to i es t i ac v e d ense m easures , suc as         h
s u p p res s i                    r ef
               on of enem y ai d en s es an d i              i ti
                                                      nterdc on
op erati                                   ri c
           ons th at w ould target c ti al nod w i a   es      th
c enti
  onv       onal b s ti m i s i organi ati 120
                    alli c s le            z on.
                 s onc rned out U.S. p lans to d loy a glob
     Th ePRC i c e           ab                     ep           al
    s l ef              h tec               s
m i s i e d ense arc i ture. PRC ob erv ers und tand      ers
                ted                  t    h
th at th e Uni States ,s h ouldi s o c oos e,h as th e ab l t  ii y
                               ev             us   ay
ov er th e longer term to d elop a rob t, l ered glob            al
    s        ef          h tec
m i s ile d en s e arc i ture th at c              h
                                            ould c allenge th e
   a ii y          na’ eterrent. To ensure th e v i b l t ofi
v i b l t ofC h i s d                                a ii y      ts
d                i ng s n          d
  eterrent,B e ji i i th e m i s t ofa long-term p rogram to
          e ts          c    l ar orc , n oth quali v e and
up grad i s trategi nuc e f e i b                      tati
         tati                 ng       s cs n i i
quanti v eterm s . M IRV i and uc e s i feldng m i s i e      s l
  ef
d ense c                            d e ac        n
            ounterm easures w oul b f tors i th e ulti ate   m
  z             orc .    i ng             ii y       nf
s i e of th e f e B e ji h as th e ab l t to i luenc th e    e
                              u
n ature an d s cop e of f ture U.S. m is s ile d en s e   ef
  ev                                     er
d elop m ent, as w ell as th e transf of th os e s y s tem s to
     e        ri nd      h       w
alli s andf e s s uc as Tai an. Th es c eofa fop       utureU.S.
    s l ef             h tec
m i s i e d ense arc i ture h as not b e d  e n eterm i  nedy et.
       ti                        n
Pos i v e s tep s th at B eiji g c    ould take to m od     erate
  ev                ep                        er
d elop m ent, d loy m ent, and transf of U.S. m i s i e       s l
  ef         nc ud         uc on n             s l ep
d enses i l e a red ti i PL A m i s i e d loy m ents
          te      w
op p os i Tai an an d c         oop eration in lim iting th e
      i erati of w eap ons of m as s d truc on and th e r
p rol f      on                           es     ti              i
              eli
m eans ofd v ery .

E N D NOTE S - C H A PTE R 5

                nt
   1. D epartm e of D efense, See t d M i i ary C ap ab l t e of t e
                                l ce     lt            ii i s     h
                       na Report to C ongre s Purs uant to Se ti
Pe l ’ Re ub i of C h i (
  op es   p lc                              s                  c on


                               14 9
   05
13 of th e FY9 7 Nati              ens             z on      ,
                          onal D ef e A uth ori ati A ct) W as h i    ngton,
                            nti      fc ,
D C : U.S. G ov ernm ent Pri ng Ofi e 19 9 7,p . 4 . Th e report s tates th at
             s    s ls      i l       e                i
m ost ofth e em i s i e arel ke y to b s h ort- or m edum -ranges y stem s .

      .   s i                   0           b tw
    2 Th i fgureas s um es 15 -2 IC B M s ( e een 75 and         rc nt
                                                          100 p e e of
         s urrent IC B M f e are dre te agai
th e PRC ’ c               orc )        i c d      nst U.S. urban areas
            i d           li           e      i
andable to l qui ate a m i l on p eop l p er cty .

      .                           z on s nc ud n
     3 A s um m ary ofC A SC organi ati i i l edi M ark A . Stoke ,    s
     na’                   e z on: Im p li ati
C h i s Strategic M od rni ati                        or
                                           c ons f U.S. N ati        onal
               i            gi    is         e           e
Se uri y ,C arl s le: Strate cStude Ins titut , Sep tem b r 19 9 9 .
   c t

            e
     4 . Se F ed      on         c       i    sts
                 erati ofA m eri an Scenti ,W M D A roundth e W orl ,      d
                   l       ,
w w w .f .org; B il G ertz B etray al, W ash i
         as                                                     ry     s
                                              ngton D C : Regne Pre s , p .
  5                                     p           v s, p
2 0; andU.S. C ongres s ,H ouse ofRe res entati e Re ort ofth eSe e t    lc
          te                 i         c
C om m i t e on U.S. Nat onal Se urity and M ilitary / C om m e         rcial
                                              na C            ,
C onc rns W i h th ePe es Re l cofC h i ( ox Report) V ol. I C h ap .
       e       t        opl ’   pub i                                ,
                   s     nd
4 , 105 th C ongre s , 2 Ses s i on, W as h ington, D C : U.S. G ov ernm ent
    nti       fc                 e
Pri ng Of i e, 19 9 9 . Als o s e Fore gn M i s ie D e e m e
                                        i       s l     v lop nts and th e
                                                  l    fe
B al i t c M i s i Th reat Th rough 2 , Uncas s i i d Sum m ary of a
     ls i      s le                     015
N ati onal Intelli       e                re tor of C entral Intelli c ,
                    genc E s tim ate, D i c                           gen e
January 2 .  002

                  nc     C na            d        s ls
    5 . W alter Pi us , “ h i M ay A d 100 M i s i e Ov er 15 Years,   ”
W ash i            ,      6                  na:
        ngton Pos t M ay 2 ,19 9 9 ; and“C h i L ong Range IC B M C ould
     h
Reac U.S. M ai         ,
                 nland”F ligh t Int rnati
                                     e    onal,A ugus t 14 ,2001.

           e
     6 . Se F ed       on
                 erati of A m e c Sc e i ts w e p age w w w .f
                                 ri an   i nt s      b    ,        as.org;
   l        ,      nes    s
B i l G ertz “C h i e M i s ile To Th reaten U.S. B y 2    ”
                                                       000, W as h ington
               3
Ti e M ay 2 ,19 9 7.
   m s,

                    nt
     7. D epartm e of D ef        ,
                             ense Prol f        on                 ,
                                         i erati andRes p onse January
2           na c i
 001, C h i Se t on; “ h i C na: L ong Range IC B M C ould Reac U.S.   h
M ai        , i
     nland”F l gh tInternat onal,Augus t14 ,2
                             i                                           h
                                                  001; “K ongjun y u h ai ang
 h         e az        A r     e                   erni ati
z uangb if h an” ( i F orc andN av al M od z on)i Z onggong     n h
juns h i xiand h ua (
                ai       PRC M i i              e z on)           p : i
                                  l tary M od rni ati , Tai ei Z y ou
     l s ng,
Pubi h i June2                Sh ntaro Is h i ara,“A n Urgent Th reat, Th e
                     000; and i               h                          ”
                  i,     ,     h       l 001. Th erelati
Sh i l ,V ol. xv ii No. 2 M arc /A p ri 2
    ed                                                         p
                                                         onsh i betw een th e
       1A                  s                        e
D F -3 andth e D F -4 1 i unknow n. Th enum b r ofTy p e9 4 sub ari sm     ne
         ll e ui s
th at w i b b lti unknow n; onec            s     s            our
                                      ould urm i e th at tw o-f h ulls (.e i .,
  2         e    th     ke       e          s s       e s m
3 -6 4 tub s w i a li num b r ofJL -2 )i a s af e ti ate.

            ri s
    8. A s e e ofm eeti       re     i       term ath ofth e ac i ental
                       ngs w e h eld n th e af                 cd
  om i             nes        a    n         e.
b b ng ofth e C h i e E m b s s y i B elgrad A total of15 p rogram s
       es gnated or ac e e
w ered i         f    c l rati A C A SC c m i
                              on.         om             orm ed p lan
                                                tteew as f      to
 or        c      d m l ne.          i     h    ng:
f th e ac elerate ti ei See “B e y ue z axi w uqiy anz i ji u,h as ”


                                    15 0
 N              i     c                       , h
( A TO B om b ng: A c elerate W eap ons R&D ) Z ongguo H angt an B ao,
                                                              i
         ,                    i
M ay 12 19 9 9 , p.1. A ttendng th e m eeti        re
                                            ngs w e reti       ros
                                                        red ae p ac   e
   v s        a             C           re tor) h
ad i ors , Xi G uoh ong ( A M E C D i c , Z eng Quanbao ( i       F rst
   a em                         rm   , n ngli ng ( c
A c d y D ep uty Party C h ai an) Yi Xi           a             ad
                                                      Se ondA c em y
           re tor)
D eputy D i c ,H uang Rui           Th rd ad                re tor)
                               song ( i A c em y D eputy D i c ,Ye
    ji    Fi th   ad
Pei an ( f A c em y C h i fE ngi
                              e            ,           ns    06
                                     neer) andH ua L i en ( 6 B ase
   re tor)
Di c .

                                s      ted rom Jane St
     9 . Th e 700-m eter C E P i extrac f                        gi
                                                        s rate c W e ons ap
                     e l          ,
Sy st m s ,19 9 8. Se B i lG ertz “New C h i
      e                                             s les              l
                                            neseM i s i Target A l ofE ast
     a,
A s i ” W as h i ngton Ti e , July 10, 19 9 7. A lso s ee “D ongf
                           m s                                          eng-21
 h       h        aod      D
z ongc eng d an ( F - 2 M RB M ) Sh i e juns h i l
                                1          ,     ji                      W
                                                                untan ( orld
M ii                ,
    l tary Forum ) January 2    000,i Ch i e andB i l G e ,Th eC h i
                                     n     nes ;          l    rtz          na
Th re W as h i
       at,        ngton, D C : Regnery Pres s , 2            3 3             l
                                                 000, p p . 2 4 -2 5 ; andB i l
        , t            5
G ertz B e ray al,p . 2 4 .

                 onv       on
     10. Th ec ersi ofth e D F-2 f                            c               s on
                                             1 rom a s tri tly nuclear m i s i to a
  onv
c enti               e                   as                     n
           onal rol w as rep orted early as 19 9 4 i th e C h i ejournal, nes
G uoji H angkong (       Internati                ati .
                                    onal A v i on) F urth er i i ati   ndc ons of a
term i             dd
       nally gui e D F -2 are f1                i us ons betw een Ri h ardF i h e
                                       rom ds c s i                       c           s r
andan engi      neer f               s      i ng
                       rom C A L T’ B e ji Res earc Ins ti    h                 lm
                                                                     tute ofTe e etry
 704         s
( th Re earc Ins ti h                                    h         r
                              tute) at th e 19 9 6 Z uh ai A i Sh ow . E xten s i e      v
                 c        ti           rm nal y
C A SC tech ni al w ri ngs on te i l gui edth e         d              al s c s l s
                                                                 ater b l i ti m i s i e
               s      i
tendto s ub tant ate th e engi               s om         nts
                                       neer’ c m e . Oth er s ourc s i i atee ndc
            onv
th at th ec enti                   1C                    erre o
                      onal D F -2 p rogram ,ref dt as th e D F-2 M od           1          3
  y               e s nf            e n
b som e s ourc s ,i i luenc di large p art b th ePers h i   y                  ,
                                                                          ng-2 entere      d
           id                            h )            n
th e ap p l e R&D ( ngh ao y anz i p h as ei 19 9 5 ,andth at th ep ri ary
                        xi                                                          m
               l e
p ay loadw i l b a p enetrator w arh ead( uand d ou)f us e agai t
                                                    z        i ant       or             ns
      -h
s em i ard            a ii i s
             ened f c l t e s uc as c m and c nters . Se W i l Young,
                                     h         om             e          e    l
              e h              aod       ud ” Th
“Sh enm id z ongguo d an b ui ( e D ev elop m ent ofth eC h i                         nese
    c     A l e , ji
Se ond rti l ry ) Sh i ejuns h il                  W
                                         untan ( orld ii    M l tary Forum ) i, nternet
  d t on w
e ii ( w w .w f                om ,
                      orum .c ) January 2           000, i C h i e. It i not c e
                                                            n     nes       s          l ar
       ar
h ow f engi                          n       i
                neers h av egonei th e r pre i i                        h n     s
                                                    l m nary res earc i th i ty p e of
  ali c s le
b l s ti m i s i term i                 d e                   i us on
                               nal gui anc . F or a ds c s i of term i l            nal y
    d ali c s l s,
gui edb l s ti m i s i e s eeG an C h uxi                        u xi ng,
                                                    ong andL i Ji a D aod y u       an
y unz h uoji z
      ai                          ji G
                 an ongti sh e ( ene                   s gn        s les
                                              ral D e i of M i s i andL aunc               h
      c e , i ng: D e ense Ind try Pre s , January 19 9 6 , p p . 6 8-6 9 .
V eh i l s) B e ji           f            us           s
A ls o s ee W ang H ongl i ( c                                       ,
                               e Se ond A rtillery C orp s ) “Op t c Im age i al
     d e          h           ” n h d                nxi n
G ui anc Tec nology , i Z i ao y u Yi n, i C h i s e A s tronauti s  ne                   c
andM i s ie A b trac s ( e
          s l ry      s      t h reaf refter                             ,        ,
                                                  erredto as C A M A ) V ol. 2 No. 3        ,
January 19 9 5 ,p p . 3 -3 4 7.

                         h     h     e az       A r      e
   11. “K ongjun y u h ai ang z uangb i f h an” ( i F orc andNav al
M od    z on n h
    erni ati ) i Z onggong junsh i xi     and h ua (
                                              ai      PRC M i i l tary
    erni ati , p           i      li ng,
M od z on) Tai ei: Zy ou Pub sh i June2                             e
                                               000. One s h ouldnot ,



                                           15 1
            h
h ow ev er,t at th ePA C -3could          nc ng        f        s l
                                engagean i om i M RB M i th em i s i e
                 i c        ns     i     t ts .
w as targeteddre tly agai t th e fre uni i elf

       .         alli     s ls n                             kad
    12 Us e ofb sticm i s i e i s up p ort ofa nav al bloc e andf        or
us e agai          e attle group s i a key th em e ofa re e i
         nst carri r b              s                        c nt nternal
    l c on        loc e        rati
pubi ati on b kad op e ons. See H u W enlong ( d , L i e      e ) anh
f         uoz          u Stud on Joi B loc eO p erati ) B e ji
 engs uo z h an y anji (       y      nt       kad           ons , i ng:
    i
Nat onal D ef          v
              ense Uni ers i Pres s ,19 9 9 . A PA C -3 i
                            ty                                e
                                                         nterc p tor could ,
    er e n ondti
und c rtai c i ons, e          ngage a D F -2       v        fcent earl
                                               1C gi en s uf i i          y
      ng       f      s l                  i tly       ns
w arni andi th e m i s i ew as targeteddrec agai t th e PA C - 3fre     i
    t
uni .

      .
   13 A m ong num erous ref      e      onv nti      c
                            erenc s on c e onal Se ondA rti l ryle
 oc ri ,                ng       h       ngy , h
d t ne see W ang H ouy i andZ ang Xi e Z any i      xue( am p aign
                                                         C
Stud e ,B ei ng: Nati
     i s)  ji                ens     v    ty
                     onalD ef e Uni ers i Pres s ,2           75 85
                                                   000,p p . 3 -3 .

              ri e onsi ts ofat leas t f b
     14 . A b gad c       s                            i
                                           our attal on s ,prob           th
                                                                  ably w i th ree
to f         om      e       h                    e
     our c p ani s eac . E ach brigad w ould be equi p e w i h          p d t
          m                               om          i       s
ap p roxi ately 100 SRB M s . E ach c p an y l kely i res p onsi l f at  b e or
                 h r.
least onelaunc e Ifoneas s u m es a noti                   t       f
                                                onals truc ureof our battali   ons
      ri e th our om                 e        h         h
p er b gad w i f c p ani s /launc ers eac ,th en a b gad w oul        ri e       d
beableto e c              d z at                                    m
              xe ute a rai s i eof least 16 SRB M s atoneti e. In a m ajor
 am       gn,           c
c p ai s ev en Se ondA rti l ry b gad noti
                                    le     ri es          onally c        c e
                                                                   oulda h i v e a
   d z                              r s les                 v
rai s i eofat leas t 112th eate m i s i . Th ree s al os w ouldutii e3 6  lz 3
   ssi e          ni
m i l s. Rem ai ng th e               s ls n                             di
                            ater m i s i e i th ePL A ars enalw oul l kely b     e
         n             or
kep t i res erv e f oth er c         onti        is       /or
                                         ngenc e and to s u p p ort nav al
    rati
op e ons andam p h i i                  i             l      rtz       na
                          bous landngs . See B i l G e , “C h i A d s To     d
   s ls              w     ”
M i s i e Near Tai an, W as h i      ngton Ti e A ugus t 2 2
                                               m s,             8, 001,p . 1; and
    l              nm     e h             aod       ud , Th
W i lYoung,“Sh e id z ongguo d an b ui ”( e D ev elopm ent of
           ne
th e C h i s e Sec ond A rti   llery ) Sh i e juns h i l
                                      ,    ji                     W     d l tary
                                                         untan ( orl M ii
F orum ) i             i on n        nes w
          , nternetedti i C h i e( w w .w f                   om ,
                                                     orum .c ) January 2     000.

                                p       d          na   ls       s l
    15 . See Tony W alker andSte h en Fi ler,“C h i B uid Up M i s i e
         ” nanc alTim e F e ruary 10,19 9 9 ,p g 1; and“Tai an B oosts
Th reat, F i     i       s, b                              w
    ens       th   v   re            ot          ”
D ef es W i L i e F i Tes t ofPatri Sy s tem , A F P,June2 2 0, 001.

     16 . L i ez any id e aob ng z h an ( A Se ond rti
             anh h        i rp   i    uoz     PL      c    A llery Joi nt
           gn         on ,        ls d           ri
C am p ai Op erati s ) unp ubi h e m anus c p t, 19 9 6 , p . 10. Th e
  oc          s ei
d um ent i b l ev edto be an i                       em c         ut t
                                   nternal PL A acad i p ap er, b i s
           i iy          en       ls d                       e
auth ent c t h as not b e es tabi h e . H ow ev er,a num b r ofs ourc se
h av e corrob       d    h             r’ ontent. PL A w ri ngs i i ate
               orate m uc ofth e p ap e s c                 ti   ndc
              s on
th at th e m i s i ofth e Sec        l e s onv     i       alli c s l
                             ondA rti l ry ’ c ent onal b s ti m i s i e
 orc s eterre e th e s e ond m i s i i to ac i v e th e “Th re
f ei d             nc ;        c        s on s         h e              e
         ori i s    nf
Superi t e ”— i orm ati d i              e r         ori            tm
                            on om nanc , ai s u p eri ty ,andm ari i e
        ori
superi ty .



                                     15 2
                        xi                                     d
      17. See W ang Ji ang and C h ang L an, “G uow ai ji ong d ao   and
  aod      i an
d an dm i s h engc ne     un                u” Stud on Surv i a i i of
                                 ngli y anji (      y            v b l ty
      i        ie     s c s l s ,n              h
F ore gn M ob l B alli ti M i s i e ) i Xu D az e,G uow aid ao d an
                                                              and    aod
ji h u y anji y u f h an (
  s          u     az      Stud andD e elop m ent of F orei B alli ti
                                 y         v                    gn       s c
    s l     c          , i ng: A s tronautic Pres s , Oc e 19 9 8, p p .
M i s i e Te h nology ) B e ji                s             tob r
9 6 -108. W ang and C h ang are f                 s              n
                                       rom C A L T’ s y s tem s i tegrati on
d epartm ent.

    18. L i      h     i rpaob ng z h an,p . 17.
           anh ez anyid e     i    uoz

                 nf i h    i,                    b l ty       h
     19 . Xu M i e ,Z u Zli andL iYong,“F easi ii ofTec nologi f      es or
               s c s ls                    rc t         e ”
Us e of B alli ti M i s i e to C ounter A i raf C arri rs , G uof ang K e ji
                      4 ,      6   0,         z n
C ankao,19 9 7,18( ) p p .12 - 13 sum m ari edi C A M A . A lso see Feng
  anb              b l ty    y
Ji ao,“Feas i ii Stud ofC onv enti                 s i    s ls         ki
                                         onalB alli t cM i s i e A ttac ng
   rc t           e ”      r                              na
A i raf C arri rs, p ap e p resentedat th e A nnual C h i A s tronauti s c
    i               c ali        e    e     l                z i
Socety UA V Sp e i s ts C onf renc ,A p ri 19 9 8,s um m ari ed n C A M A ,
V ol. 6 . No. 1.

      0.            ao,
    2 W ang G uob “Ini                s us on         ti al l i c s l
                              tial D i c s i on Tac c B a l s ti M i s i e
E lec     c      are,
     troni W arf ” H angti                                  l
                                 an danz d kang, A p ri 9 7, p p . 1-7,
                                        i i ui
          z n                   na’ nteres t i m i m eter w av e ( M W )
sum m ari ed i C A M A . C h i s i            n     lli            M
             s e            ii y          nes i s llegalac s i on of
tech nology i b stexem p l fedb a C h i efrm ’ i              qui ti     a
              ng            e      ii n               c al
M M W trav eli w av etub am p l fer i 19 9 6 . A s p e i M M W lab oratory
           ls d n
w as es tabi h e i 19 9 5 .

     1.            xi                                         rab e
    2 See W ang Ji ang andC h ang L an, p . 107. M os t v ulne l
     d e
w oul b K ad                                  n
            ena A B andYokosuka Nav al B as e i Jap an.

     2       an          d
    2 . D unc L ennox,e . Janes St e cW e
                               ’ rat gi   apon Sy st m s,I
                                                    e     ssue2 ,
                                                               4
                         :    s   orm  on
M ay 9 7,Surrey ,E ngland Jane’ Inf ati G roup .

       3             nd
      2 . G eorge L i s ey , Th e Inf ati Re re e s f A e p ac
                                      orm    on      qui m nt or ros             e
D ef ns e L i its Im p os e b G e etry and Tech nology , B ai ri
     e :       m              d y       om                                   l gg
              um 7,                as         v      ty
M em orand 2 C D ISS,L anc ter Uni ers i ,p . 18. Ifm ov e cos er to   dl
 ts                     i
i target,th eD F-15 l kely w ould el            h d          ted        t
                                       b aunc e on a lof trajec ory th at
      d nc             l gh    m          d h                    h
w oul i reas e th e fi t ti eouts i et e atm os p h ere, t us i reas i nc      ng
        s l’              ii               ir                                  ,
th e m i s i es v ulnerab l ty to up p er t e s y stem s . On th e oth er h and a
    ted       c
lof traje tory c           nc              s le’                e, d i
                     ouldi reas eth em i s i s reentry s p e d re ucng th e
f        nt,     ef nd                      e                h
 ootp ri or d e ed area, oflow er ti r s y s tem s s uc as PA TRIOT.

      4   h
     2 . Z ao Yuns h an, Z ongguo d an ji z anlue ji f
                           h           aod       qi h        , e angjun d e
            C na’       s les
h e n w uqi( h i s M i s i and
   xi                                     gy             s
                                   Strate : Th ePL A ’ C entral W eap on)  ,
H ong K ong: M i                  3.              e redt                 t
                rror B ooks ,p . 2 2 Oth er s ourc s c i th e D F-15 w i h
                                            s ls         na        m
only as goodas a 15 0-m eter C E P. See“M i s i e ! C h i H as Th e Too!, ”
                                        n
W e w e po, June 1, 19 9 9 , p . A 5 , i Fore gn B road as t Inf
    n    i                                     i           c      orm ation
   rv c h      ter        -C                    2
Se i e( ereaf F B IS) H I-0016 9 ,June2 ,19 9 9 .


                                      15 3
    5      an      M            s les                        t : lt
   2 . B ri H s u,“ -C las s M i s i ’B ark W ors e Th an B i e M i i ary ,”
                  st
Tai e Ti e A ugi 16 ,2
  p i m s,                000.

       6   h
     2 . Z ao Yuns h an, Z ongguo d an ji z anlue ji f
                               h          aod      qi h        , e angjun d    e
               C na’       s les
h e n w uqi( h i s M i s i and
   xi                                        gy           s
                                      Strate : Th ePL A ’ C entral W eap on)   ,
H ong K ong: M i                     3.
                   rror B ooks ,p . 2 2 Inf      d      e
                                            orm e s ourc s as s ert th e M irror
( i ng)s eri s ofb
 M ngji           e      ooks h av e a m i      c         l ablity
                                          xedre ordofre i i . H ow ev er,
  ev         nt                          on                s
d elop m e ofa longer rangev ers i ofth e D F - 15 i also alluddt i     e o n
   l         ,     na d
B i l G ertz “C h i A d s To M i s i e N ear Tai an, W ash i
                                    s ls           w    ”        ngton Ti em s,
A u gus t 28, 2                h                             ed
                001, p . 1. Z ao s tates th at th e expand range D F -15
 nc                          v     e
i orp orates a m ore ad anc d p ropellant. Th ere i of                 onf ng
                                                            s ten c us i
         ng             d fe               l
rep orti on an uni enti i d1000 kiom eter s y s tem — th e M -18— th at
        n ac                            ed
m ay i f t be th e rum oredextend rangeD F-15 .

     7. h       3
    2 Z ao,p . 2 4 .

      8.                    fn , p
     2 D ep artm ent ofD e e s e Re ort to C ongre on Th e
                                                    ss              s l
                                                           ater M i s i e
   f ns
D e e e A rc i e t         i     or
              h t c ure Opt ons f th eA s ia-Pac f cRe on,W as h i
                                                ii     gi         ngton,
                               ens ,
D C : U.S. D ep artm ent ofD ef e 19 9 9 .

        9                                en ,
     2 . See D ep artm ent of D ef s e Th e Se uri y S i uat on i th e
                                                       c t       t i    n
Tai an S trait (
      w                  Rep ort to C o n gres s Purs uan t to th e F Y 9 9
                         l)
A p p rop riations B i l , W as h i                                      nti
                                      ngton, D C : U.S. G ov ernm ent Pri ng
   fc ,                        l        ,                       3.
Of i e 19 9 9 . A ls o s ee B i l G ertz Th e C h i Th re p . 2 2
                                                  na     at,

      0.          h       i                   s
     3 H ui Z ong, “M e guo K ongjun Sh i h i Ji                  ao h
                                                      guang Fand Ji ua”
(                              s l       en            , h
 USA F Im p lem ents L aser M i s i e D ef s e Plan) Z ongguo H angtian
                    e, b                        8-3           h
( h i A e p ac ) F e ruary 19 9 6 , p p . 3 9 ; and Z ang Yap i
 C na         ros                                                         ng,
“Ji                 e uoz
    guang W uqid Z h an Xi                       h           , C      ii i s
                                aoneng y u Faz an Qus h i” ( apab l t e
             s n                                , h
andTrend i L as er W eap on D ev elop m ent) Z ongguo H angt a Julyi n,
              7-4         e
19 9 7,p p . 3 0. Pres enc oflonger range surf              r s l s oul
                                                   ace-to-ai m i s ie c d
 orc
f e th e A B L to op erate f                       gh
                            urth er out. A s a h i v alue as s et, th e A B L
      d        re i      s ort or
w oul requi fgh ter e c f p rot c i Ifb e t on.     asedon H ai tan Is land  ,
th eS-3              ov            s         e
         00/PM U1 c erage extend out to c ntral andnorth ern Tai an’   w    s
       oas
w est c t.

     1. b d
    3 Ii .

      2           c al ri fng    s l ef                           ng y
     3 . See s p e i b e i on m i s i ed en s ep rogram s andtes ti b
   e                ral             i
L i utenant G ene RonaldT. K adsh ,July 13 2    , 001.

     3
    3 . N ati         s l      f ns :          i         nat on
             onal M i s ie D e e e A C andd E xam i i of Poli i al   tc
L i i s and Te h nologi al C h alle
   m t          c          c                       ri ge
                                     nges, C am b d , M A : Ins ti     or
                                                                  tute f
     i       c            s, nc              1-2 .
F ore gn Poli y A naly s i I .,19 9 8,p p . 2 2

     4
    3 . F ed       on              c
             erati of A m eri an Sc e                    b te,
                                            i ntis ts w e si G round b d
                                                                      ase
   e e              as.org/ s p p / s tarw ars.
Int rc p tor,w w w .f

                                     15 4
      5     c i                  d rati           c      i    s
     3 . A c ordng to th e Fe e on ofA m eri an Scenti ts , th e b i     as c
             ”               rov           h tecture i s ai to c
“th res h old th reat th at d e th eC 1 arc i        s               s
                                                           d onsi t ofan
      k     i
attac offv e s i                     s les th          s c        e oy
                  ngle-w arh eadm i s i w i unsop h i ti atedd c s th at
 oul e i ri nated p lus c af,ob c
c db ds c m i              ,                         c
                                  h f s urant p arti les ,f lares ,jam m ers ,
andoth er c   ounterm easures .

     6     c i               d rati               c      i nti
    3 . A c ordng to th e Fe e on of A m eri an Sc e s ts , a C 2
    h tecture w oul h av e d end
arc i                 d         ef     ed again s t an y auth ori ed z ,
          z ,         cd           k y        s                 s
unauth ori ed or ac i ental attac b s oph i ticated p ay load at th e
 asi          de         i
b cth resh ol l v el,s a dto consi t ofan attac offv e si
                                  s             k   i     ngle-w arh ead
   ssi e ach w i e th er a f w (
m i l s ,e       th i        e about f        re i l e oy
                                        our)c d bed c s th at c d    oul
         i ri nated (
not be dsc m i                               e nterc p ted, p lus c af,
                        andw ouldh av e to b i       e     )         h f
  s urant p arti l s ,f
ob c            ce lares ,jam m ers,andoth er c   ounterm eas ures .

      7.     c i
     3 A c ordng to th e F ed         on        ri an      i nti
                                 erati of A m e c Sc e s ts , th e C 3
arc i                   d
     h tecture w oul h av e d end  ef    ed again s t an y auth ori edz ,
            z ,        cd            k y        s                   s
unauth ori ed or ac i ental attac b s oph i ticated p ay load at th e
    jec v                    c v        l s i       ons s
“ob ti e” lev el. Th e “obje ti e” lev e i s a dto c i t ofan attac of k
tw e nty s i                 s les a h       t i r          e p
            ngle-w arh eadm i s i , e c w i h e th e a f w ( erh ap s as
           i     redb e oy           oul       e i ri nated and oul
m any as fv e)c i led c s th at c dnot b ds c m i                [ w      d
           e nterc p ted,or a larger num ber ofles s s op h i c
h av e to b i      e     ]                                            e oy
                                                             sti atedd c s
th at c        e i ri nated p lus c af, ob c
        ould b ds c m i         ,                                c e lare
                                        h f s urant p arti l s, f s ,
jam m ers ,andoth er c                 s
                        ounterm easure .

      8.            c            sti   s l
    3 C h arles Sw i ker, “B alli c M i s i e D efense F rom th e Sea: A
          er’   rs c i ,
C om m and s Pe p e t v e ” NW C Re i w ,M ay 19 9 7.
                                     v e

         9        rd       r e ap ii              anc l e
       3 . A th i low e ti r c abl ty ,th e c e l dNav y A rea D e e s e      fn
                     e                 ap ii or            r e
s y s tem ,w as to b a near term c abl ty f low e ti r area d f nse of     ee
             rfeld nd orc s                       e       ee
p orts , ai i s , a f e ash ore. Th e c nterp i c of th e N av y A rea
      ens                              k
D ef e Sy s tem — th e SM -2B loc IV A area d ens e i ef       ntercep tor— i ans
       uti                   s
ev ol on of th e Nav y ’ Stand               s            s
                                      ard M i s ile and i one of th e B alli t c s i
     s l
M i s i eD e e               z on’ ore
               f nse Organi ati s c program s . Th eSM -2B loc IV A i a  k        s
    gh          ,
h i s p eed s ol d f i ueled s y stem w i a dth                 e i rared and
                                                      ual m od (nf
s em i        v
         -acti e radof i requenc ) h om i g and a b t-f
                                   y        n               las ragm e tati n     on
                 cfc
w arh eads p e i i ally d s i                            ali c s le ef
                             e gnedto enh ance th e b l s ti m i s i d ense
     ssi           om i      on        i       d e th
m i on. Th ec b nati ofp rec s e gui anc w i a p ow erf exp los i e   ul           v
         m ty us
p roxi i f ed w arh ead m akes th i i                    e        gh        fe ti
                                               s nterc p tor h i ly e f c v e
                on
augm entati to th e PA C -3s ki     ’        c
                                         neti -ene rgy h i        l
                                                           t-to-kil s y s tem s . Its
f          nt,     ef nd
 ootp ri or d e ed area, w as larger th an th e PA C -3 Nav al A rea.
      ens                                  fe t v f y
D ef es y s tem s generally arem os t e f c i ei th e are loc       ated   near th e
        ts                   d                          ng
as s e th ey ares up p os e to p rotect. A t-seates ti w as exp ected b gi  to e n
 n
i late 2003           y 004       w
                 /earl 2 . Tai an h as reque tedf   s                      qui d
                                                           our A E G IS-e p p e
  es                    oul , n
d troy ers th at c d i th e f                         d           i ted m i s i e
                                        uture, p rov i e som e l m i            s l
  ef nse s h ouldTai an d c d to p ursue suc a c ablity . H ow ev e
d e                      w       eie                  h      ap i                   r,
      w
Tai an’ c                      t           qui d es               s ri n y
            s urrentp urs ui ofA E G IS-e p p e d troy ers i d v e b th e


                                       15 5
    e to ef   nst rb     ng           h    rui   s ls
ne d d endagai ai reath i th reats,suc as c sem i s i e and
     ke rc t.
s tri ai raf

                  ls
    4 0. J. R. W i on, TH A A D : I Th e E y e OfTh e St
                                   n                                l sh
                                                        orm , unp ubi ed
                                       e , Th           gh      tud
p aper, 19 9 6 ; and B M D O F act Sh e t “ eater H i A lti e A rea
    ens TH           ,
D ef e ( A A D )” h ttp s :/ / w w w .ac os d i / b d b d nk/ p d /
                                        q.     .m l m o/ m oli           f
                                                 fc
th aad M ay 19 9 9 ; andTH A A D Program Of i e H om e Page, h t p s :/ /
       ,                                                            t
lm m g.e rnal.lm c om / t aad .
         xte         o.c    h     /

                      ih
     4 1. See L i F e z u, “Tai          aod     h
                                   kong d an genz ong xi      ui ang
                                                        tong d tuf
c          e ngy
 uosh id y i ong ( l               e       e  M s l      ki
                         Infuenc ofSp ac and i s i eTrac ng Sy s tem on
             on              ,        ls     na     em
Penetrati M easures ) unp ubi h edC h i A cad y of E ngi       neeri ng
        c                l
Ph y s i s p ap er,A p ri 19 9 9 .

       .        ls
    4 2 J.R. W i on,TH A A D : In Th eE y eOfTh e Storm ,19 9 6 .

        .      m             e
     4 3 State ent of L i utenant G eneral Ronald T. K ads h , USA F i
   re tor, B alli t c M i s i e D e en s e Organi ati
Di c             s i     s l       f             z on, B ef      ore th e H ouse
            rv c
A rm ed Se i es C om m i              c      tte
                             ttee Sub om m i e on M ii      l tary Res earc &h
                          ay
D ev elop m ent, Th urs d , June 14 , 2     001, h ttp :/ / w w w .ac      .m l
                                                                     q.os d i /
 m o/ m ol nk/ h tm l/ kad sh 14 jun01.h tm l.
b d b d i                       i

                  d e             e M s l G       s        m s
     4 4 . Th eG ui anc E nh anc d i s ie( E M )i s om eti e ref   erredto
                 +.”            nc           m                    ront end
as th e “PA C - 2 Th e G E M i orp orates i p rov em ents to th e f
                   s l ci                   e ts f c i                   t
ofth e PA C -2m i s i e re e v er to enh anc i efe t v enes s andleth ali y
      ns        s c s ls
agai t balli ti m i s i e .

            h      d,                an e d
     4 5 . Z ang L i e “W oguo gouji f i an f angy u y u y uanju gongji
 ed
f i an xi         e nggu, ( naly s i of Tai an’ M i s i e D ef n s e and
            tong d p i      ” A       s     w   s   s l        e
                      k    s l           , n
L ong Range A ttac M i s i e Sy s tem s ) i Jiand           ji D e
                                                   uan K e , ( ef n s e
    h          ,
Tec nology ) M arc 2 h 000,p . 6 6 .

              e    on         c     i    s
    4 6 . F ed rati of A m eri an Sc enti ts h om ep age, PA TRIO T,
( w w .f .org)
w        as     .

                 -y      A    ot
     4 7. L u Te un,“ Patri A nt -M i s i D ef ns e Um b
                                     i s le       e                s
                                                             rellai F orm ing
 n
i th e G re              p i     ” e                       4
               ater Tai e A rea, L i n-h o Pao, A ugus t 2 , 19 9 8, p . 1, in
FBI           -9    4              n,       i
     S-C H I 8-2 6 ; andYuen L i “Prob ng th e C ap abii y ofTai an’
                                                             lt         w    s
     i alli i        s ls ”
A n t b s t cM i s i e , K uang C h i C h i A ugust 16 ,19 9 8,p p . 5 4 -6 1,
                                      ao    ng,
 n                     5 .
i F B IS-C H I-9 8-2 2 To c                           ng      km     c
                             ounter a D F -15 trav eli at 2 /s e , M A D S
op e                   5     c s
    rators h av e 2 -4 0 s e ond af            ar    qui ti
                                       ter rad ac s i on to fre and   i
i       e           nc ng      s le.
 nterc p t th e i om i m i s i W i h c ng d
                                        t uei                  t on/i
                                                     ata, reac i          e
                                                                     nterc pt
 i               nc             c s
t m e w ouldi reas e to 5 0 s e ond or m ore.

             lt             n            s le f n            c”
    4 8. “M i i ary M ay Joi Th eater M i s i D e e s e Proje t, Th eC h ina
                 e
Post,Nov em b r 19 ,19 9 8,p.1.



                                     15 6
                     i us on                  i m        t
     4 9 . F or a ds c s i on th e p otent al i p ac of D SP s u p p ort f  or
                       i      e
PA TRIOT op erat on s ,s e Yuen L i “           i               l ty   w
                                         n, Prob ng th eC ap abii ofTai an’  s
     i alli i         s ls ”
A n t b s t c M i s i e , H ong K ong Kuang C h iao C h i      ng, Augus t 16 ,
                       n                  5 .
19 9 8,p p . 5 4 -6 1,i F B IS-C H I-9 8-2 2

      5 0. N ati        s l      f ns :         i         nat on
                onal M i s ie D e e e A C andd E xam i i of Poli i al    tc
L i i s and Te h nologi al C h alle
   m t             c        c                      ri ge
                                       nges, C am b d , M A : Ins ti  tute for
       i        c          s, nc                   1-2 .     nes nteres t i
F ore gn Poli y A naly s i I .,July 19 9 8,p p . 2 2 C h i e i               n
    s
th i “s tari       a blt              l ce n                     y ;
              ng” c p a i i y w as refe t di at leas t one stud , s ee Qi    u
     un,         ng    al                    ng or s l
Yul “Stari Foc Plane A rray Im agi f M i s i eE arly W arni ”             ng,
K ongjian Ji h u Qi
                 s      ngbao Yanji ( ace Te h nology Inf
                                        u Sp        c               orm ation
                                        n                     ,
Stud e ,M ay 19 9 5 ,p p . 15 0-16 0,i C A M A ,V ol. 4 ,No. 2 19 9 7.
        i s)

     5 1. “Sp e tc rum A s tro/North rop G rum m an C om p lete SB IRS L ow
      e ”        cD l i                   rs on)
Rev i w , Sp a e aiy (nternet v e i ,7 M ay 2              001. V ery h ot ob jects
    i         gh        ii s                      nf d SW
radate h i quant t e of s h ort w av e i rare ( IR: 1-3 m i rons)           c     ;
           ode        i
w arm b i s radate s i fc                         te
                              gni i ant quanti i s ofm e i                 nf d
                                                            dum w av e i rare
 M           -8 c          ; old je ts
( W IR: 3 m i rons) c ob c p ri ari y rad     m    l                       nf d
                                                         iate long w av ei rare
si        L                 c      ;    l ry old je t
   gnal ( W IR: 8-14 m i rons) w h i ev e c ob c s em itv ery long w av e
    i on V           R:        0
radati ( W L I 14 -3 m i rons ) D if c       . ferent opti          or oc l
                                                             ons f f a p lane
           nc e           ury ad um
array s i lud m erc -c m i -te l d ( gC d     l uri e H                lc
                                                             Te) or s ii on bas ed
                   Te                c      l e       d
s ensors . H gC d array s , w h i h w i l b us e on SB IRS-L ow s atelli s ,   te
  an e e t nf
c d t c i rareds i          gnatures up to ab              c       L        ut
                                                 out 12m i ron s ( W IR)b are
         i fc
v ery df i ult to m anuf                          e il           i t on
                              acture and susc p t b e to rada i andE M P
   fc                            v                   Te         s
efe ts . H ow ev er,a key ad antage ofH gC d array s i th at th e d not   y o
       re ool ng
requi c i to th e extrem e low tem p e                                     nf d
                                                     ratures th at oth er i rare
         als o.             etai e      nes v           on
m ateri d F or a d l dC h i e e aluati ofSB IRS-L ow ,s ee L i
    ih
F e z u, “Tai              aod
                  kong d an genz ong xi   h        tong d tuf
                                                           ui            uos
                                                                  ang c h i d     e
yi              Inf                                 s
   ngy ong ( luence of Sp ace and M i s ile Trac ng Sy s tem on ki
             on               ,        ls          na
Penetrati M easures ) unp ubi h edC h i A cad y of E ngi    em            neeri ng
        c                l
Ph y s i s p ap er,A p ri 19 9 9 .

       .
    5 2 Nati                        1-2 .
            onal M i l D ee ,p p . 2 2
                    ssi e f nse

      . bd
    53 I i .

                       5 6
    5 4 . I i .,p p . 2 -2 .
           bd

                     6
    5 5 . I i .,p . 2 .
           bd

                       6 1.
    5 6 . I i .,p p . 2 -3
           bd

    5 7. I i .
          bd

                               V .                   .                  n,
    5 8. See th e C ox Rep ort ( ol I, C h ap ter 4 ) A lso s ee L i B i “Th e
   fc                   nes            ”
E fe ts ofNM D on C h i eStrategy , Janes Int l i e eRe i w ,M arc
                                               ’    e l g nc      v e        h
1,2 001.

                                      15 7
                   l           s          tai
    5 9 . Joh n W i s on L ew i andXue L i ,“C h i s Strate cSe ow e
                                                  na’         gi  ap   r:
           tc           e
Th e Polii s ofF orc M od rni ati i th eNuc
                                e z on n                    ,    ord
                                                   lear A ge Stanf ,C A :
       ord      v     ty
Stanf Uni ersi Pres s ,19 9 4 .

               e                B   ng                 nes       ci
    6 0. B onni S. G las er and anni N. G arrett,“C h i ePers p e t v es
                    c      en     ti v
on th e Strategi D ef s e Ini ati e, Prob      lem s of C om m uni m ,
                                                                   s
      h      l              8-4
M arc -A p ri 19 86 ,p p . 2 4 .

                                                    i ng:
    6 1. C h i Tod : D e e Sc e eandTe h nology ,B e ji Nati
              na  ay    f nse i nc              c           onal
   ens         us            ,
D ef e Ind try Pres s ,19 9 3 p p . 14 9 -15 0.

         . bd              -15 ;             c                 i r, C na’
      6 2 I i ,p p . 15 2 3 als o see Ri h ardP. Suttm e e “ h i s H i            gh
     h                              lm                  c ”n
Tec nology : Program s ,Prob e s ,andPros p e ts , i C h i s E c    na’     onom i  c
                                         or       ne rs s          b or
D i e m a, p p . 5 4 6 -5 6 4 . Th e seni engi e re p on s i le f th e 86 3
   lm
              nc udd
Program i l e W ang D ah eng, a p ree i                            c
                                                      m nent op ti s expert w h o
          a en           na’        e rac ng
p lay ed rol i Ch i s s p ac t ki netw ork; W ang G anc ang,one of     h
th ef       i ath
       oundng f ers ofC h i s nuc na’                              ah ,
                                          lear p rogram ; Yang Ji c i as atelli   te
     tud ontrol e ert; andC h en F angy un,an elec
atti ec              xp                                            c
                                                             troni s engi  neer and
      er                      e          na’        e     ki
lead ofprogram to d v elop C h i s s p ac trac ng netw ork. To f us             oc
          nv s             or
R&D i e tm ent f th e longer term , H ong K ong m eda s ourc s           i        e
                                      i          z            ni     v , m l
rep ortedth at th e State C ouncl auth ori eda new i tiati e s i iar to
                                        by      l m        z x
th e 86 3 Program , th at os tens i l w i l e p h as i e s i key areas : 1)
                               ) nf       on      h          )
aeros p acetech nology ; 2 i orm ati tec nology ; 3 s trategi d ens e ;  c ef      s
4 )d            ke                           c                   h
       eep s tri tech nology ; 5 ) op ti s and las er tec nology ; and 6 )
   v      e          als               c ub e              6
ad anc dm ateri . Th e p roje t, d b dth e 12 Program , allegedy                   l
w as f                      d uri           6
        orm ally p rop os e d ng th e 2 January 2         000 A nnual C OSTIND
     i
Nat onal C onf             e n
                   erenc i B e ji                   f         e
                                    i ng. Th e efort, to b ov ers een b W u   y
                       h
B angguo,W ang Z ongy u,C ao G angch uan,andL i Ji i i to f eu b n, s         undd
ov er th e next 12              ars           n
                      -15 y e . See W e Jen, “Ji                   e
                                                         ang Ord rs H i Tecgh      h
                                v             12
A eros p ace W eapons D e elop m ent— ‘ 6 Program Si            gnedandPlac d     e
       er
Und H u Ji               s             ,
                 ntao’ C om m and” Tai Yang Pao, i F B I      n       S-C H I-004 0,
        h 1, 000,p . A 19 .
M arc 2 2

        .
    6 3 L u H ongquan and     Yang L iand       h          h         and
                                         ong,“Z anlueh ez ans h u d ao
 aod
d an d tuf  e    ang” ( netrati of Strategi and Tac c B alli t c
                        Pe         on             c          ti al      s i
   s ls ,      ls     i                        n      h
M i s i e ) pubi h ed n an unknow n journali M arc 19 9 9 . L u and   Yang
are f              na a em
      rom th e C h i A c d y ofE ngi          ng       c C         ;
                                         neeri Ph y s i s ( A E P) als o s ee
            e           an e h          i
B ai H and, “G anraod d z ongle h e z h an f  uoz              ” Ty
                                                       angs h i ( p es and
Op erati                       i d t              ng         ad , a ai
          onal Sty les A s s oc ate w i h Jam m i W arh e s ) Xi nd
          M ern                ,
b ngqi( od W eap onry ) 19 9 5 ,p p . 15 2 3
 i                                           -15 .

                     ong and L i Ji ang, D aod y u y unz h uoji
    6 4 . G an C h uxi          u xi             an       ai        an
z           ji G           gn     s ls              h c , i ng:
 ongti s h e ( eneral D esi ofM i s ie andL aunc V eh i les ) B e ji
   ens        us
D ef e Ind try Pres s ,January 19 9 6 ,p . 4 5 .




                                       15 8
                      ao,
     6 5 . W ang G uob “Ini        s us on      ti al l i c s l
                           tial D i c s i on Tac c B a l s ti M i s i e
E lec       c      are,                                    l
      troni W arf ” H angti danz d kang,C A M A ,A p ri 19 9 7,p p .
                             an i i ui
1-7.

                            h           h      e az     ” D
    6 6 . “K ongjun y u h ai ang w uqiz uangb if h an, ( ev elop m ent of
        r       e                 ati        p       n h
th e A i F orc andNav al A v i on E qui m ent) i Z onggong junsh i
xiand ua (
        aih       PRC M ilitary M od          z on ,       p
                                          erni ati ) Tai ei: F reed    om
    l s ng, June 2
Pubi h i                                 i      e G          e h     e
                       000; als o see B a H and, “ anrao d z ongl i h e
 uoz
z h an f              ” Ty
              angs h i ( p es of Jam m i   ng and O p erati             s
                                                           onal M eth od )
                  M ern                ,
Xiand w uqi( od W eap onry ) 19 9 5 ,p p . 15 2 3
        ai                                          -15 .

    6 7. L u H ongquan and Yang L iand       h          h         and
                                      ong,“Z anlueh ez ans h u d ao
 aod
d an d tuf  e    ang” ( netrati of Strategi and Tac c B alli t c
                       Pe      on              c          ti al     s i
   s ls ,       ls   i                      n     h
M i s i e ) pubi h ed n an unknow n journali M arc 19 9 9 . L u andYang
are f              na a em
     rom th e C h i A c d y ofE ngi        ng      c C
                                      neeri Ph y si s ( A E P) .

    6 8. F or e       e         ,                v
               xam p l , C ai Yi “Status andD e elop m ent of Tw o C olor
InfraredD etec       ”
                tors , H ongw aiji h u,( rared h nology ) 19 9 7,19 ( )
                                   s    Inf      Tec        ,         5 ,
          z n                             etai       ndum       d I )
sum m ari edi C A M A ,V ol. 4 , N o. 6 ,d ls th e i i -bas e (nSb
in frared detectors u s ed o n th e TH A A D m is s ile; an d th e
      ury ad um             d H
m erc -c m i -telluri e ( gC d              etec
                                      Te) d tors th at are p art of th e
Ray th eon E K V sensor sy s tem .

    6 9 . L u H ongquan andYang L iand       h          h         and
                                      ong,“Z anlueh ez ans h u d ao
 aod
d an d tuf   e    ang” ( netrati of Strategi and Tac c B alli t c
                        Pe      on             c          ti al     s i
   s ls ,        ls   i                     n     h
M i s i e ) pubi h ed n an unknow n journali M arc 19 9 9 . L u andYang
are f               na a em
     rom th e C h i A c d y ofE ngi        ng      c C
                                      neeri Ph y si s ( A E P) .

           l        ,                5
    70. B i l G ertz B etray al,p . 2 4 .

    71. L u H ongquan and  Yang L iand       h          h         and
                                      ong,“Z anlueh ez ans h u d ao
 aod
d an d tuf  e   ang” ( netrati of Strategi and Tac c B alli t c
                       Pe      on              c          ti al     s i
   s ls ,      ls    i                      n     h
M i s i e ) pubi h ed n an unknow n journali M arc 19 9 9 . L u andYang
are f             na a em
     rom th e C h i A c d y ofE ngi        ng      c C
                                      neeri Ph y si s ( A E P) .

         .          xi                                     c      s i
      72 W ang Ji ang, “Fas t B urn B oos t Strategi B alli t c M i s i e s l
     h        ” ros c
Tec nology , A e p a e S&T Int l i   e l genc Stud e A b rac s ( ) 9 2( )
                                              e       is    st t 2,         4 ,
               n                                          s rom th e B e ji
p p . 6 8-78, i C A M A , V ol 3, No. 6 , 19 9 6 . W ang i f              i ng
In s titute of Sp ace Sy s tem s E n gi         ng B ji
                                         neeri ( ei ng y uh an g xi       tong
        h
gongc eng y anji        ;         e n               ng,      i ai
                   usuo) als o s e Qi G uangm i “A p p l c t on ofSlotte     d
Tub              n n                i
      ular G rai i Fas t Burn Sol dM otors , B i               b Ord
                                                 ” ngong xue ao ( nanc        e
           ,              ,                  ,n                 ,          n s
Journal) V ol. 18,No. 2 19 9 6 ,p p . 4 1-4 3 i C A M A ,V ol. 3 No. 6 . Qi i
f             an
 rom th e Xi Ins ti                ern
                      tuteofM od C h em i try . s

     .
   73 See Nati        s le f ns ,                           s   ev
              onal M i s i D e e e p . 16 . Th e Top ol- M i beli ed to
 h     i t ons d ng th e las t p h as e ofi as c nt.
c angedrec i     uri                       ts    e


                                      15 9
    74 . G an C h uxi           u xi
                     ong and L i Ji ang, D aod Yu Yunz H uojian
                                                an    ai
Z           ji G    ral    gn     s ls             h c , i ng:
 ongtiSh e ( ene D esi ofM i s ie andL aunc V eh i les ) B e ji
   ens        us
D ef e Ind try Pres s ,January 19 9 6 ,p . 4 2.

     75 . Fore gn M i s i e D e e op m e andth e B alli t c M i s ie Th re
              i      s l       v l      nts            s i     s l        at
                        las fed
Th rough 2 , Unc s i i Sum m ary of a N ati
             015                                        onal Intelli  genc e
     m        re t
E s ti ate,D i c or ofC entral Intelli       e           002
                                         genc ,January 2 .

              s
    76 . Stoke .

                        u,
    77. G an and L i p . 4 6 ; G ui Yongf                    on
                                            eng, “Penetrati of Tac     tical
    ls c       s l’       c ”                         ji A
B ali ti M i s ies D e oy , H ub i H angti n K e ( eros p ace H ub i ,
                                     e         a                         e)
   b                     6 8, n                        ,
F e ruary 19 9 4 ,p p . 3 -3 i C A M A ,19 9 5 ,V ol. 2 No. 1; andL iH ong,
      on           teri c                     c                 s c
“M oti C h arac s ti s of A tm os p h eri Reentry B alli ti M i s i e  s l
          s            i       i at on               c       gn, angnan
W arh ead andTh e r A p p l c i s To H eav y D e oy D es i ” Ji
                ji Ji                e  h          ,       1)
H angt an K e ( angnan Sp ac Tec nology ) 19 9 7 ( , p p . 2 -3 i
       i                                                            6 0, n
C A M A ,19 9 7,V ol. 4 ,N o. 3.

    78. G an C h uxi            u xi
                     ong and L i Ji ang, D aod y u y unz h uoji
                                                  an         ai      an
z           ji G           gn       s ls             h    c , i ng:
 ongti s h e ( eneral D esi ofM i s ie andL aunc V eh i les ) B e ji
    ens        us                               -4 ;
D ef e Ind try Pres s , January 19 9 6 . p . 4 2 3 andW u G anxi   ang,
             anji h         , F      i      i                   , n
“G uow ai f c ang w uqi” ( ore gn A n t runw ay W eap on s ) i Xu
    h
D az e, G uow ai d  and d an ji h u y anji y u f h an, A stronauti s
                        ao aod       s        u     az                c
    l s ng          ,
Pubi h i H ouse 19 9 8, p p . 6 5 -76 . Th e control m aneuv er m ay b e
   cs                 ow                                   s tion ofth e
ne e s ary to s low d n th e reentry s p eedto allow acqui i
        m        n     ali c s l ’
target i age i th e b l s ti m i s i es seeker.

                       u,     .                    ,          h        c
      79 . G an andL i p . 4 3 A ls o seeC aiYuanli “Res earc on Traje tory
    c         n                   c i , n
Re ov ery i E xo-A tm os p h eri F l gh t ” i D aod Yu H angtian Yunz
                                                    an                    ai
   sh M s l s                         ce ,     h                  n
Ji u ( i s ie andSp ace V eh i l s ) M arc 19 9 5 ,p p . 10-15 ,i C A M A ,
           ,                h                              on
V ol. 2 N o.5 ; an d Z ao H an y uan , “Sim u lati , A n aly s is of
                 l    e          ce ”
M aneuv erab eRe ntry V eh i l s , Yuh ang Xue ao,January 1,19 9 7,p p .
                                                   b
            n                    . h
9 6 -9 9 , i F B IS-C ST-9 7-012 Z ao i f s rom th e N ati        v    ty
                                                          onal Uni ers i of
     ens
D ef e Tech nol .    ogy

           h          nd ,       m       on            h
    80. Z ang M i e “Si ulati Res earc of D ef s es A gai t     en         ns
C onv enti         li i        s l                  c ” t
           onal B a l s t c M i s i e Reentry V eh i les , Xi ong gongc e y u
                                                                       h ng
                                                                 m     on
d anz ji u, V ol. 19 , N o. 4 , 19 9 7, p p . 4 5 -4 9 . Th e s i ulati w as
  i i sh
 ond ted b C A SC s B e ji
c uc          y                                       c       n e ng
                                i ng Op toelectroni E n gi e ri G eneral
D esign D ep artm ent. For ge        neral background on s aturati     on, s ee
         e
H ars h b rger,p p . 16 9 -170.

               d            C na           ti               ot
     81. D av i Fulgh um , “ h i E xp loi ng U.S. Patri Se re ,    c ts ”
                                                         ,       0-2
A v i t on W e k andSp a e Te h nology ,January 18,19 9 3 p p . 2 1.
     ai       e         c    c




                                    16 0
        . h                   n
     82 Z ang D em i and H ou Sh i i                       m      on
                                               m ng, “Si ulati Researc of       h
   fn v                    en v          blt                  i
Of e s i e and D ef s i e C ap a i i y of C onv ent onal M anuev eri              ng
   e            s l,
Re ntry M i s i e” Xi ong G ongc e Yu D i i Ji u, V ol. 19 , No. 4 ,
                             t          h ng           anz sh
                          n                                                 ati
19 9 7, p p . 4 5 -4 9 , i C A M A , 19 9 7, V ol. 4 , No. 5 . Full tran s l on i   n
FBI                    72 h
     S-C H I-9 7-2 . Z ang i f                          i n
                                     s rom th e B e ji g E lectrom ech ani al     c
E n gi       ng          gn
      neeri D esi D ep artm ent, als o know n as th e C A SC F ourth
                  gn                     c i                       on,
Sy stem s D es i D ep artm ent. A c ordng to oneev aluati PA C -2h as a
      ab l ty           ll         5      e          ns
p rob ii of ki of 10-2 perc nt agai t an uni ent fe t c i a     d iid a tc l
  ali c s l .                  h
b l s ti m i s i e SeeZ ao Yupi “Prob ing,                                  ep ng
                                                  ablity ofPA C -2Interc ti a
        n        ti al         sti   s l,
C ertai Tac c B alli c M i s ie ” pap er pres entedat th e N ov em b r             e
        onf renc ofNat onal M i s ie D es i
19 9 7 c e           e           i      s l                    c ali
                                                    gners Sp e i s t Netw ork, i    n
C A M A ,V ol. 5 ,No. 3     .

         .          kui        m       on                     d e
      83 M eng D ai ,“Si ulati ofC ontrol andG ui anc ofSp i ng           nni
    s ls ” t
M i s i e , Xi ong G ongch e yu D i i Ji u, V ol. 5 , No. 3 19 9 4 ,
                                   ng         anz sh                    ,
             z n                     ,
sum m ari edi C A M A ,V ol. 2 No. 1,19 9 5 ; W an C h unxi       ong andYang
    a           enti i ati           i        s         e       nni
Xi olong,“Id fc on ofF l gh t D i turbanc s on Sp i ng M i s i e ”       s l s,
                               Tac i al s l           h        ,    h
Z ans h u D aod Ji h u ( t c M i s ieTec nology ) M arc 19 9 5 ,p p .
  h               an s
       n                 ,       .
1-8,i C A M A ,V ol. 2 No. 3 F or a general asses s m ent on m eth od         e
                                                                         ologi s
                s l
to protect m i s i e s y s tem s agai          gh                           f
                                       nst h i p ow eredlas ers ,s ee JiSh i an,
           t on     s ls
“Protec i ofM i s i e A gai                    rs ”
                                    nst L as e , D aod y u H angt an Yunz
                                                         an         i         ai
                                 5    , n                .          ’
Ji u, V ol. 5 , 19 9 6 , p p . 3 -4 2 i C A M A , V ol 4 , No. 1. Jis res earc
   sh                                                                          h
 onc ntrated on th e e f c of h i p ow e
c e                          fe ts         gh       red las ers on a v ariety of
          als
m ateri andopto-elec                c
                             troni s y s tem s .

                a
      84 . L iQi ng,“CurrentStatus andFollow -On D ev elop m ent ofL as er
       dng               s
C lad i W ear-Res i tanc C oatie           ”                         ,
                                       ngs, Yuh ang cailiao gongy i January
19 9 7,p p . 13                     ns tut nv v        n          ng s
               -18. A t least one i ti e i ol edi th e testi i H arbn        i
                                             f                 s          c on
In s titute ofTech nology . A ls o see JiSh i an,“L as er Res i tant Prote ti
       s les,
ofM i s i ” D aod y u h angt an y unz ji u,M ay 9 6 ,p p . 3 -4 2
                      an            i        ai sh                    5   .

               s
    85 . L ew i andH ua,p . 17.

                    u,
    86 . G an andL i p . 4 4 .

    87. D u Xi              li c s l          ens          e
              angw an,“B a l s ti M i s ie D ef e andSp ac W eapon s ,”
 n
i Quanguo G aoji h u Z ongdian Tus h u, Jiguang Ji h u L i
                     s     h                             s    ngh uo,
 N onal H i Tech nology K e Ref renc - L as er Tec nology Realm )
( ati        gh                 y     e     e         h               .
      d
Us eof ep res s ed     c ori s     nc os          i    w th c
                  traje t e m ay i ur c ts as s ocated i ac uracy .

    88. L u H ongquan and  Yang L iand       h          h         and
                                      ong,“Z anlueh ez ans h u d ao
 aod
d an d tuf  e   ang” ( netrati of Strategi and Tac c B alli t c
                       Pe      on              c          ti al     s i
   s ls ,      ls    i                      n     h
M i s i e ) pubi h ed n an unknow n journali M arc 19 9 9 . L u andYang
are f             na a em
     rom th e C h i A c d y ofE ngi        ng      c C
                                      neeri Ph y si s ( A E P) .




                                       16 1
                  nh ng, “H i Pow eredM i row av e W eap on s : A N ew
     89 . G ong Ji e         gh                c
      e n             c     are” anz ui                      b
C onc p t i E lectroni W arf , D i id kang ji h u,F e ruary 9 5 ,p p .
                                                     s
              s rom th e South w es t Ins ti
1-9 . G ong i f                                               c     p
                                            tute of E lectroni E qui m ent
 SW        ,    na’      e            c       are
( IE E ) C h i s p rem i r electroni w arf res earc e ty .h nti

                   om               v         e           eh          e
     9 0. F or a c preh ensi e ov erv i w of th e t c nologi s as s ocated     i
   th
w i H PM w eapons , see C arlo K op p , “Th e E -Bom b - A W eap on of
         c
E lectri al M as s D es truc             ”
                                   tion, in W i         h
                                                 nn Sc w artau, Inf        orm ation
                                   er’                            9     9
W arf ,New York: Th und s M outh Pres s ,19 9 4 ,p p . 2 6 -2 7; A ls o s ee
       are
                             ord                     n gh
J. Sw egle andJ. B enf ,“State ofth e A rti H i Pow e M i row av e :r     c        s
             ew ”                       at
A n Ov erv i , p ap er p res ented th e19 9 3I       nternati              e
                                                               onalC onf renc on e
                     i ati                             a, c m e
L asers andA p p l c ons , L ake Tah oe N ev ad D e e b r 6 -10, 19 9 3              .
Sw e  gle andB enf               nt                           a,
                       ordp oi out th at th e US, Russ i F ranc , andth e e
     ted ngd                                    n dti
Uni K i om h av eH PM p rogram s i ad i on to C h i Z u Youw e    na. h            n
                 ,
andF eng Yi G aoji u tiaojianxi d xi z an,( orm ati W arf
                         sh               a e nxi h         Inf         on       are
      er     gh     c                    i ons ,
Und H i Te h nology C ondti ) A c d y of M i        a em                       i nc
                                                                    litary Sc e e
    s
Pre s , 19 9 4 , p p . 3  08-3  10; ”B eam E nergy W eap onry : Pow e ul as  rf
         er            gh
Th und and L i tni ” Ji f      ng,     e angjun b                 e 5
                                                   ao, D ecem b r 2 , 19 9 5 , i   n
FBI           -9     9                or 1s                nf
     S-C H I 6 -03 ; Outlook f 2 t C entury I orm ati W arf ,         on        are ”
G uoji h angkong, ( tern atiIn                    ati ,
                                        onal A v i on) M arch 5 , 19 9 5 , i       n
FBI           -9               c            s             on,
     S-C H I 5 -114 ; “M i row av e Pul e G enerati ” Qiang ji             guang y u
                          n                                s
l zsh u, M ay 19 9 4 , i JPRS-C ST-9 4 -014 . C A E P’ Insti
 ii                                                                              id
                                                                   tute ofA p p l e
E lec       c       v
      troni s ,Uni ers i ofE lec
                            ty              c i nc              h
                                       troni Sc e e andTec nology ofC h i        na,
      th             s                      l ar    h          n an
and e N orth w e t In s titute ofNuc e Tec nology i Xi areth ree of
             m
th em os t i p ortant organi ati                  dn                 h esi
                                   z ons engage i th eres earc ,d gn,and
     i
tes t ng ofC h i                  ev c s
                  nese H PM d i e . Th ePRC ap p ears to h av e m astere a       d t
                                      e                      rc
least tw o H PM p ow er s ourc s — th e F C G and v i ator. Th e greatest
 h             s                z on
c allenge i th e w eap oni ati p roc s s .   e

                 u
     9 1. See L i Sh i                            Sof    ll’
                      quan, “A New Ty p e of ‘ t K i W eap on: Th e
E lec                               ,                        H   e
      trom agneticPuls e W arh ead” H ub i h angtian ji u ( ub i Sp ac
                                            e           sh              e
    h        ,                               u s rom th e Sanji
Tec nology ) M ay 19 9 7, p p . 4 6 -4 8. L i i f              ang Sp ace
    us
Ind try .

        .             e      gh  h               on
     9 2 C h ung C h i n,“H i Tec W ar Prep arati ofth e PL A : Taking
    w        th           sh ,
Tai an W i outB lood ed” Tai an D e e A fa rs,Oc ob r 2
                                  w     f nse f i      t e 000,p p .
14 1-16 3 .

          .             l           s            tai
       9 3 See Joh n W i s on L ew i and Xue L i , C h i s Strategic
                                                         na’
Seap ow e Th e Poli i s of F orc M od rni ati i th e N ucle A g ,
            r:        tc           e     e z on n               ar    e
         ord     ord     v                   or nf        on
Stanf : Stanf Uni ers ity Pres s ,19 9 4 ,f i orm ati on th e 6 4 0
                   d      e e i
p rogram . A s a si e not , l adng U.S. experts h av e notedth at A B M
                              n         ap i                     ut
s y s tem s generally h av e i h erent c ab lities as A SA Ts , b th e
  onv        s
c ers e i not alw ay s true.




                                       16 2
                    i D                                           s
     9 4 . G ao Ful , “ ev elop m ent Strategy and Serial Re earc of   h
     i       tc        s c
A n t -Tac i al B alli ti M i s iles , in F ore gn M i s i e Te h nology
                               s      ”          i       s l       c
   v l                      tob r                   n                ,
              nt n 000,Oc e 19 9 4 ,p p . 4 8-5 9 ,i C A M A ,V ol. 2 No. 4 .
D e e op m e i 2
                              h sanb ou) f C h i s m i s i d en s e
Th e th ree p h as e ap p roac (      uz     or       na’     s le ef
 ev           nt s         i us      n                u
d elop m e i als o ds c s ed i Yang C h unf and L i Xi en,       u    ao’
                    y                s i     s
“Res earch Stud on U.S. B alli t c M i s ile D ev elop m en t Plan,         ”
                orm   on                           n
A eros p aceInf ati Pap er H Q-9 6 009 ,19 9 6 ,i C A M A ,V ol. 4 ,N o. 2.

                h    h     u                 i
    9 5 . See Z u Z enf and H uang Pe kang, “TB M IR Radant           i
Si         ,      ti           i            ng          or   i s le
   gnature Selec on ofO p t m um Operati B andf Ant -M i s i IR
   e      ” tong gongc e y u danz ji h u ( s tem s E ngi
Se kers , Xi             h ng      i i s       Sy                  ng
                                                             neeri and
E lec      c ,                   h   s rom C A M E C ’ Se ond A c em y
     troni s ) January 19 9 6 . Z u i f               s    c        ad
207th Researc I h nsti tute. W u Jianw en, “D o W e H av e TM D ?” Ji f
                                                                     e ang
           cm e              n          -09
ri ao,D e e b r 8,19 9 9 ,i F B IS-C H I 87.
  b

                           ls d n      v     ti s           na, no
      9 6 “C enters E s tabi h e I Uni ers i e Of C h i ” ( sourc          e
 i       )n                  -9          e                rec
l s ted i F B IS-CH I-09 83 5 ,Sep tem b r 9 ,19 9 5 . D i tor ofth e s tate
           s     es           h
key labi Prof s or Sun Z ongl ang.i

                                        e li
     9 7. W u G uangh ua,“D ual-M od M il m eter W av e             e     or
                                                             -IR Se ker f A n
     o-A             c              ”
E n d tm os p h eri Intercep tor, D anji n ji h u (
                                               a s            c l nd
                                                        Proje ti e a Roc     ket
    h          ,           ,                    0, n                6
Tec nology ) V ol. 9 ,No. 3 19 9 6 ,p p . 15 -2 i F B IS-C H I-9 7-2 1. Th ekey
 om            s   5                          l ng         e
c p onent i a 3 G H zK a-B andtrav e i w av e tub am p l fer.      ii

                h    uf        W       ngh ,        ng i ng ui aod
     9 8. SeeZ ao Ji en and ang M i ai “Yuji w e xi d d an
    ng
y uji m oxi d f            h       M ei               m     on
               ng e angz en” ( od l ng and Si ulati of B alli t c       s i
   s l                 ng        tes ,
M i s i e E arly W arni Satelli ) G utih uoji n ji h u (
                                                 a s       Journal ofSol di
    ket      h        ,      4
Roc Tec nology ) V ol. 2 ,No. 3 2                   .                  rom
                                     , 001,p p . 1-3 Th e auth ors are f
        c          le s        ne ri    ad
th e Se ondA rti l ry ’ E n gi e ng A c em y i Xi n an.

                        d en     nd
      9 9 . A M S and ef s ei ustry of i i c              s          v ate s l
                                             fcals onsi tently ad oc m i s i e
      y          ng
earl w arni satelli           tes i c e
                                   n onc pts f a nati
                                                  or         onal rec       i
                                                                      onna s s anc e
                    i ns tutes f i rare d t c or R&D i l e B e ji
netw ork. L eadng i ti                or nf       d ee t            ncud       i ng
In s ti                 m            ng         p
        tute of Re ote Sens i E qui m ent, Sh angh ai Ins titute of
     h c              c               na
Tec ni al Ph y s i s ,North C h i Researc I s ti   h n tute ofOp toelec          c
                                                                            troni s ,
           ng
K unm i Insti                         c                        ny      ns
                     tute of Ph y s i s , and Sh angh ai Xi ue I trum ents
F ac                  s        h
     tory . C A ST’ L anz ou Ins ti                      c s                 d
                                         tute of Ph y s i s i a key p rov i er of
 y           c qui            or ool ng        nf d
c rogeni e p m ent f c i th ei rare s ensors . Se L i Ji             e u ntian,
“H ongw ai Qi                                 h               ” D
                   jian G uoneiw ai F az an D ongtai ( ev elop m en tal
            c             nes
Pros p e ts of C h i e and F oreign In f                          cs , h
                                                     rared D ev i e ) Z ongguo
                     h        ,                           h     H      i i
h angt an,M arc 19 9 2 p p . 4 1-4 5 ; andW u Runc ou,“ angt an l ngh uo
         i
               s      e az                    nt               rare
h ongw aiji h u d f h an” D ev elop m e ofSp ace Inf dTech nology )                 ,
Z ongguo h angt an, M arc 19 9 3 p p . 19 -2 . F or oth e ref
  h                     i         h        ,           3           r           e
                                                                         erenc s to
     na’          e
C h i s s p ac -bas edi rared nf      /ultrav iolet teles c      es gns     e
                                                           ope d i , s e C h e    n
          h ,                             n         e           c
L ongz i “New D ev elop m ents i Sp ac C ry ogeni Op ti s , D i e       c ” w n
         h ng C
gongc e ( y rogeni E n gi   c            ng)         h                 , n
                                    neeri , M arc 19 9 4 , p p . 9 -13 i C A M A ,


                                       16 3
                     M  nz                   an           ng az
V ol. 1,No. 5 ; and a Pi h ong,“W oguo kongji w angy uanji f h an”
 D v                   na’             op , h
( e elop m ent ofC h i s Sp ace Teles c e) Z ongguo h angti an, July
               9 2
19 9 4 ,p p . 2 -3 .

                  nf      on
      100. F or i orm ati on C h i           s le              ng
                                      nesem i s i early w arni s y stem s and
        i          h                    ngy          ,
as s oc atedtec nology ,s ee L u M i u, Yi Kui Yang Junf andD eng  a,
      h
Ruz en,“D ev elop m ent ofSi                  e or         m    nf d
                                   gnal Sourc f Real-Ti e I rare E arth
          ” h
Sens or, Z ongguo kongji ke     an     xue ji h u, June 19 9 6 , p p . 6 3
                                             s                            -70. in
FBI                            u                ng    al
      S-C ST-9 6 -016 ; andQi Yulun,“Stari F oc Plane A rray Im agi            ng
 or s l                      ng,
f M i s i e E arly W arni ” K ongjian ji u qi ao y anji M ay 19 9 5 ,
                                               sh    ngb          u,
                  n                               .
p p . 15 0-16 0,i C A M A ,19 9 7,V ol. 4 ,No. 2 One s h ouldnot ds ci ount th e
        b l ty          an       s     e            i ng
p os s i ii of Rus s i as s i tanc s h ould B e ji h av e an i        nteres t in
   gh          p i al      y
h i ly elli t c M olni a orb t .   is

                                                          n
    101. Stokes , p p . 118-119 . One s h ouldnote th at i th e 19 80s , th e
Uni               on d red m odfc on of th e Pers h i
    ted States c s i e             i i ati                        or
                                                            ng-2 f A SA T
   ssi             m    m lar
m i ons ,a s y s te s i i to th e D F-2    1.

          .
     102 F or ref         e
                   erenc s to c  ontrolp rob e s,s eeD eng Zc en,“
                                              lm              ih             lm
                                                                       Prob e s
 n
i H i            c s on
        gh Pre i i C om p utati             or       i
                                      on f N onl near C ontrol of Sp ac          e
        e        ” i ng i ,                                            n
Interc p tors , Fe xi l xue V ol. 16 ,No. 1,19 9 8,p p . 85 -89 , i C A M A ,
V ol. 5 ,No. 5 . Yang Yi                           h                     e
                           ngbo,“C ontrol Res earc on a Sp ace Interc p tor i   n
              nal      d e          ,          ls d
th e Term i G ui anc Ph as e” unpubi h e B UA A p aper, M ay 19 9 4 ;
        aoi             y              d e           or
Sh iXi ng,“Stud on Puls e G ui anc L aw f Space Interc pti ” i        e on, n
                                              n            . ,      .
Z i ao y u Yi n,No. 4 ,19 9 4 ,p p . 1-4 ,i C A M A ,V ol 2 N o. 3 Sh ii f
  h d           nxi                                                        s rom
             i
th e H arb n Insti                h        s m        on
                     tute ofTec nology ’ Si ulati C enter. D eng i f      s rom
                          h c          v      ty                    is
N orth w es t Poly tec ni al Un i ers i . For oth er s tud e , s ee L i
  h        ng,        y       d               d e or rod
Z ongy i “Stud on M i -C ours eG ui anc f A e y nam i C ontrol of   c
            s           ens ,                 d          B
A n ti- M i s ile D ef e ” unpublis h e p ap er ( H -B 4 774 ) B eiji ,        ng
     v      ty
Uni ers i of A e               c                  is B          ,
                      ronauti s and A s tronaut c ( UA A ) M ay 19 9 6 , i      n
                                    h        ng,         m    v        m
C A M A ,V ol. 5 ,No. 5 ; andL iZ ongy i “A p p roxi ati e E s ti ati of    on
     i          d e or                   s i
Op t m al G ui anc f FrontalB alli t cM i s i eI                  ”        ls d
                                                 s l ntercep ts, unp ubi h e
                  B             ,n                                    h
B U A A p aper ( H -B 4 776 ) i C A M A , V ol. 5 ,N o. 5 ; andL i Z ongy i    ng,
                c          eli             m         d e or
“M ath em ati al M od ng of Op ti al G ui an c f A n ti                -Tac cti al
    l s c s l s,               ls d                r B            ,
B ali ti M i s i e ”unp ubi h e B UA A p ap e ( H -B 4 85 4 ) M ay 19 9 6 ,i    n
C A M A ,V ol. 5 ,No. 5 .

      .                  na
   103 C h eng H o, C h i E y es A n ti        te
                                       -Satelli Sy s tem , Sp ac D ai y ,
                                                                e    l
January 8,2 000.

      104 . Xu H ui a               h                m            f ere e
                          nd Sun Z ongkang, “Te p erature D i f n c s
B etw een Satellites and           te c        ”
                             Satelli D e oy s , NUD T Journal,V ol 16 ,No. 3,
                              d fc on               tes          c
19 9 4 ; als o s ee L iH ong,I enti i ati ofSatelli andIts D e oy s Us i  ng
      ti                    on, and f
M ul s ensor D ata Fus i ” Xi                                           1-3
                                       ai angyu ji u,June 19 9 7,p p . 3 6 .
                                                  sh
     s rom th e NUD T E lec
L ii f                              c    h
                               troni Tec nology D ep artm ent.



                                      16 4
                    an, i        ,            h
     105 . L iH ong’ W e Xuh ui andSun Z angkang,“D uo c uanganqi h
                    xi      i ng qi l u u’         e h b e M t -sen s or
s h uju rongh e s h i an w e xi ji xii xi er d z i i ” ( ul i
             on       s ri nate Satell tes andD e oy s ) Xi
D ata Fusi To D i c m i                i            c     , and f   ai angy u
        M ern
ji h u ( od D ef
   s                          h       ,         e                1-3
                     ense Tec nology ) N ov em b r 19 9 7,p p . 3 6 .

    106 . D oD Rep ort to C ongres s , Se uri y Si uat on i th e Tai an
                                         c t      t i      n        w
Strai .
     t

                        an                 ai        an
      107. “H angti guti y unz h uoji y ouxi gongs i c engli     an               h      ”
 A            e i              h         ce             i          l s d, h
( eros p ac Sol dL aunc V eh i l C orp orat on E s tabi h e ) Z ongguo
H angt an,June2
         i                    i                 on)         orp      on l e ntly
                        000 (nternet v ers i . Th ec orati w i l b joi
    m ni redb at leas tf key enti e i olv ed n th ed elopm ent of
ad i s te           y            our            ti s nv         i          ev
               1                                        s
th e D F - 2 and its s ea- lau n ch ed s i ter, th e JL - 1 : B eijin g
E lec         c       c
       trom e h ani al E ngi    neeri D es i D epartm e ( th D ep artm ent)
                                       ng       gn              nt 4                      ;
    a em               c
A c d y of Sp a e Sol d Roc   i         ket E ngi Tech nology ( th A c em y )
                                                    ne                  4        ad       ;
    i ng
B e ji Insti     tute ofC ontrol andE lec             c       ne ri 17th Res earc
                                                troni Engi e ng (                       h
             ;         ng
In s titute) Nanji C h e        nguang F ac ory ( 07 Fac
                                                t      3              ;
                                                                tory ) andth e C h i   na
A eros p aceE lec           c      c                on.         om
                    trom e h ani alC orp orati For a c p leteh i tory ofth e  s
D F -2                          e        s
        1/JL -1 p rogram , se L ew i andXue C h i s Strate c Se ow e
                                                      ,     na’            gi    ap     r.
               h
A ls o s ee Z ang D exi     ong, “G uow ai xi           ng      xi      e
                                                   aoxi w ei ng d guti h uoji n        a
     ji
tui n xi              Sol d
            tong” ( i Roc                        s on              or
                                  ket Prop ul i Sy s tem s f Fore gn Sm all    i
          tes , n           an ngb
Satelli ) i H angti qi ao y anji H Q-9 3          u,                        9
                                                             011,p p . 13 -15 5 ; W ang
  h ng, reeni Stude andTec nology f A l -Sol dSp ac L aunc
Z e “Sc               ng       is             h           or l       i          e       h
       ce ”
V eh i l s , G ut h uoji f ongji s h e y u y anji ( i Roc
                   i        an ad                ji          u Sol d          ket E ngine
       gn                  h ,       l                 -73 n
D esi andRes earc ) A p ri 19 9 6 , p p . 6 3 , i C A M A , V ol. 3 No. 6 ,       ,
                 h                       gn              i z i
19 9 6 ; and Z ang Song, “D esi and Op t m i at on of Sol d L aunc            i         h
       ce         c      ”                                 0,
V eh i l Traje tory , G ut h uoji ji u,V ol. 2 N o. 1,19 9 7,p p . 1-5 ; and
                               i        an sh
  h
Z ang D exi            C na’
                ong,“ h i s D ev e op m e C onc p t f Sm al Sol d aunc
                                        l       nt        e or            l i L         h
       ce ”                         ad          nf         on
V eh i l s , C A SC F ourth A c em y I orm ati Res earc Rep orts , th e  h
               i on, tob r                           n
F ourth E dti Oc e 19 9 5 ,p p . 1-11,i C A M A ,V ol. 5 ,No. 2                   .

                        n,      orm      on          s on
    108. C h eng Yueji “Inf ati Transm i s i Sy s tem of D ata
                  ”
Relay Satellites, K ongjian ji h u qi
                                    s        ngbao y anji July 19 9 4 , p p .
                                                         u,
         ,n                .                    s rom th e Xi Insti
185 -19 3 i C A M A , V ol 1, N o. 6 . C h eng i f            an      tute of
     i    c                            y ng,
Rado Te h nology . A ls o s eeTan L i i “Selection ofW av elength Regi      on
 or                        i               c on,
f Op tical Inters atell te C om m uni ati ” H aerb n gongy e d
                                                          i              axue
               6        ,               4 7, n              .
xue ao, V ol. 2 , No. 3 19 9 4 , p p . 2 -2 i C A M A , V ol 1, No. 6 ; C h en
    b
        ng,           y           i                       tes, n h
D aom i “F requenc andOrbt ofD ata Relay Satelli ” i Z ongguo
                                                  6 1, n
kongji ke ji u,V ol. 16 ,No.1,19 9 6 ,p p . 2 -3 i C A M A ,V ol. 3 N o.
       an xue sh                                                         ,
3.

    109 . D ep artm ent of D ef     ,
                               ense Future M i i ary C apabiliti s and
                                                lt               e
                                        na Rep
Strategy ofth ePe l ’ Re ubi ofC h i ( ort to C ongres s p ursuant
                   op es p l c
      ci       2
to Se t on 12 6 of th e FY9 8 Nati             en             z on   t,
                                      onal D ef s e A uth ori ati A c )
W ash ington,D C : U.S. G ov ernm ent Pri         fc
                                         nting Of i e,19 9 8.



                                          16 5
           n       i n,             c          ei
    110. Ji W e xi “M ath em ati al M od l ng of Tac c Surfti al    ace to
    ace s l s          nst      ”n
Surf M i s i e A gai TM D , i Sy s t m s E ngi e ng andE l c roni
                                           e        ne ri         et       c
                 .         ,                -6               ,     ,
Te h nology ,V ol 17,No. 3 19 9 5 ,p p . 6 3 8,C A M A ,V ol2 No. 3 19 9 5 .
  c

                  or                          nz ,       d h
        111. Seni C olonel W ang B e h i “D i i c angui d an h uol        aod          i
               e ge
y uny ong d ji w ent , (        i ” Som e Ques tions Related to th e Us e of
C onv enti   onal Surf                ae s l            rep
                       ace-to-Surf c M i s i e Fi ow er) i L i     , n anh ez any i
                                                                                 h
                                      Joi
y u junb ngz ong z h an, ( nt Th eater and Serv i e Op erati
            i h         uoz                                            c           ons)
     i ng: Nati
B e ji                        ens       v      ty                        3 4
                 onal D ef e Uni ers i Pres s , 19 9 8, p p . 2 6 -2 1. A s of
                                e         f
19 9 8,W ang w as th eC h i fofStaf ofth eSec                A le            h
                                                        ond rti l ry H uai ua B ase
 803           t)           onc p
( 05 Uni . Th e c e t of s y nc roni e , m ulti s s tri
                                                h     zd           -axi             s
                                                                              kes i a
f        am           nc p
 und ental p ri i le of Sec                                   onv
                                          ond A rtillery c enti                oc ne
                                                                        onal d tri
( uod an, d angxi
 d i            uof                           uji .       r m
                           ang, tongs h i t ) Oth e i portant op erati             onal
  onc p       i us
c e ts ds c s ed b W ang f  y           rom H uai ua i l e “xush i b ngy ong
                                                    h      nc ud              i        ,
                 ji” l t rally “us e reali , m ake a noi i th e eas t, b
s h e ong xi , (i e
       ngd                                      ty                se n                ut
       ke               ;
s tri to th e w est”) and“xiaojiange, duoboci tuji” (i                         ut m
                                                                   l terally “c ti e
             ke n           p e            .
and s tri i m ulti l w av es ”) Th e frs t calls f i i             or ntegrati ofon
   m
s i ultane                h
              ous launc es f              if               h    i
                                  rom dferent launc azm uth s and us e of
 nf d i on i                       i         onf
i rare radati “ds rup t on”to c us eenem y s atelli early w arni      te              ng
                  om i ate e
s y s tem s andc p l c                          k         on             c
                                  nem y attac op erati s . Th e se ondi lud s  nc e
                   ke                  i
us e oftw o s tri w av es,th e frs t “s c        reeni             c       y
                                                      ng” th e s e ondb exp loi    ting
     m                           n    s l ef
“ti e lags” ( h i anc a)i m i s i e d ens e .
                s ji h                                s

         .               u,                   h           n,
      112 G an and L i p . 4 5 . A ls o s ee Z an g D em i “Stud ony
           on     h que                       on       s c
Penetrati Tec ni s on New G enerati B alli ti M i s i , i     s les ” n
Xi           e ngz
   njunsh ig m i h ongdaodan w uqif h an qi
                                       az                    m e
                                                 anji N ov e b r 19 9 6 ,
                                                     ng,
          4 n
p p . 18-2 ,i C A M A ,V ol. 4 ,No. 2.

          .       ci        s    h
      113 Si Xi a , “Re earc on L ong Range Ant radati M i s i i i on      s le
        v      ar e           c         ” n h
Pas s i e Rad Se ker Te h nology , i Z ans h u d an ji h u ( tic
                                                            aod    s    Tac al
   s l       c          ,
M i s i e Te h nology ) V ol. 2 19 9 5 , p p . 4 2 2 oth e s tude on s p e i i
                                ,                   -5 ;     r    is        c fc
           h s              eh          nc e
ap p roac e to A RM t c nology i lud Yang H uay uan, “Stud on              y
            db        gh      c    y    c                        ”n
Superw i e andH i A c urac M i row av e D F Sy s tem , i D aoji y u       an
                      b                          .
z i ao xue ao,F e ruary 19 9 5 ,p p . 7-12 A t least one SecondA c e y
 h d          b                                                          ad m
      ty
enti th at h as c           uc                        i    i on
                      ond ted w ork on ant -radati m i s i s eeke   s le       r
    h           s         i ng
tec nology i th e B e ji Ins ti                        m         ng
                                      tute of Re ote Sen s i E qui m ent p
 p
( rob                     5         arc nsti
       ably th e C A SC 2 th Res e h I             tute) .

     114 . W ang C h uny uan,C h i s Spac I ustry and I s Strat g of
                                  na’       e nd             t       ey
In ternational C oop e ation, Stan f
                          r               ord Un iv ers ity C en ter f  or
Internati          c ty                       ,
           onal Se uri and A rm s C ontrol July 19 9 6 , p . 4 ; M arat
Ab          n,    fc al            c or       c            on,
   ulkh ati “Ofi i on Pros p e ts f Sp a e C oop erati ” Itar-Tas s ,
   t e               n                                s          i us ons
Oc ob r 10,19 9 6 ,i F B IS-SOV -9 6 -19 8; andauth or’ 19 9 4 ds c s i
   th      nes     c fcals s           b or nternati
w i C h i e s p a e of i i re p on s i le f i                  oop rati
                                                       onal c e on.




                                        16 6
                    h
    115 . ”W ang L i eng f      h
                           ujuz ang lutuan f             W    i
                                               angw en E ’ u l angguo
C          p
( A SC D e uty D i                h         s         on         an
                  rector W ang L i eng L ead D elegati to Rus s i and
      ne , h                              l
Ukrai ) Z ongguo h angt an b A p ri 11,19 9 4 ,p . 1.
                           i      ao,

                        ih
     116 . See L i F e z u, “Tai         aod     h     tong d tuf
                                   kong d an genz ong xi     ui ang
c          e ngy
 uosh id y i ong ( l               e      e   M s l     ki
                         Infuenc ofSp ac and i s i eTrac ng Sy s tem on
             on              ,       ls      na     em
Penetrati M easures ) unp ubi h edC h i A cad y of E ngi       neeri ng
        c                l
Ph y s i s p ap er,A p ri 19 9 9 .

              s    nt s      e y
     117. Th i p oi i m ad b D r. L i B i f                  tute of
                                             n rom th e Ins ti
Internati          is
          onal Stude ,Qi            v    ty n        fc
                         ngh ua Uni ers i i “Th e E fe ts ofNM D on
    nes           ”                               h
C h i e Strategy , Janes Int l i e eRe i w ,M arc 1,2
                        ’    e l g nc   v e             001.

     118. F ed     on       ri an  i nti     i
              erati of A m e c Sc e s ts es t m ates th at th e D F-5
 oul     c       ate            s m l n z
c dac om m od s ix w arh ead s i iar i s i e to th os e us edon th e
      1
D F -2 M od2  .

                                        f   ,    e
    119 . See Step h en V an E v era,“Ofense D ef ns e,andth e C aus es of
     ” e
W ar, Int rnati                        2           ng
                onal Se uri y ,V ol. 2 ,No. 4 ,Spri 19 9 8,p p . 5 -4 3
                         c t                                           .

      0.        nt oc ne                   k
    12 U.S. joi d tri notes th at attac op erati    ons are th e m os t
  fc v       ef i i
efe ti e and fcent m eans ofc       ng               al s c s l s
                             ounteri th eth eater b l i ti m i s ie .
   nt     ef        f     nt    l c on -01.5 , Joi D octri f
Joi C h i s of Staf , Joi Pubi ati 3                 nt        ne or
C ount ri A i andM i l Th re
      e ng r          ssi e   ats,W as h ington: G PO,19 9 9 .




                                  16 7
                          C H A PTE R 6



        C H INE SE R E A C TIONS TO NE W U.S.
       INITIA TIV E S ON M ISSIL E D E F E NSE

                          c
                      E ri A . M cV adon



INTROD UC TION

                             s h           es ri es
      Th e auth or of th i c ap ter d c b and analy z                es
      nes       e                s l ef            ni ati
C h i e v i w s of U.S. m i s i e d ense i ti v es , b ed         as
largely on i          e           ngs
               nterv i w s ,m eeti ,lec                  onv
                                          tures ,andc ers ati      ons
    th
w i v ari              nes     fcals            s     b rati
              ous C h i e ofi i , Peop le’ L i e on A rm y
 PL           fc
( A ) of i ers , th i                         ad c
                          nk tankers , ac em i s , and oth er
s trategi s tude and e uri s p e i s ts i C h i 1 Th ec
            c     is       s c ty     c ali       n      na.       ore
           h       one uri
res earc w as d d ng 3w eeks on th e m ai                       n
                                                        nlandi July
andOc e 2 tob r 001,p lus oth er m eeti     ngs h eldandm ateri     als
   tai         n
ob ned i th e w eeks b f                       ter            s ts
                                e ore and af th os e v i i . In
           ,t               cs            s           s le s
general i w as not ne e s ary to rai e th e m i s i i s uew i        th
      nes nterl utors ; th ere w as eagernes s am ong th es e
Ch i ei            oc
      nes
Ch i e c            ts        d                c es ri e
              ontac to ad res s th e top i , d c b C h i e        nes
       ti             s         ons    v            m l ty
p os i ons ,andrai eques ti . G i en th es i i ari ofm any
                        t        l ar                  c       ci
of th e res p ons es , i w as c e th at th e top i h as re e v ed
                  on,                          al
am p le attenti th at th e s am e m ateri h adb e readall en
ov er C h i                                  v
             na, andth at th ere w as uni ers al s u p p ort am ong
   fc als           ad c or
ofi i and ac em i s f th e c ntral ob c ie           je t ons to U.S.
     s         ef           ti v                     th n
m i s ile d en s e in i ati es , albeit w i i teres ti g             n
       i i ati
m odfc ons.

PRC V IE W S OF TH E UNITE D STA TE S IN M ID -2001

             s        n
    Som e ob erv ers i th e Uni                    onc ud
                                ted States h av e c l ed
th at 2      s               or           na
        001 i a bad y ear f U.S.-C h i relati     ons, th at
W as h i      s ri             s l ef
        ngton’ d v e tow ardm i s i e d ense andm ore arm s
 or     w      oup      th               i
f Tai an,c ledw i m any oth er b lateral s trai h as ns,

                                16 9
     t
lef B eiji                y
            ng unread , ev en unw illing, to d        eal w i th
W as h i             nes      s                  if
         ngton. C h i e ob erv ers h av e a df erent v i w . e
      nes   i          n
C h i e dp lom ats i W as h i    ngton as s ertedas early as th e
      ng
s p ri of2                i ng s
            001 th at B e ji i ,at th eouts et ofth eG eorgeW .
               d
B u s h p res i en cy , exercis in g res train t an d b i gen
    c         ati       es te
ac om m od ng— d p i m an y U.S. ad i i trati     m n s       on
               nc udng                s l ef        ,h
s tatem ents ,i l i th os e on m i s i e d ense t at m i t   gh
  e ons d         f     v
b c i eredofens i e to C h i      na.
    Th e f                                                    cp
          requently exp res s edh op e w as th at th e anti i ated
       ng e                  d
m eeti b tw een Pres i ents Ji                 e n
                                       ang Z m i and B us h i       n
   i ng, oi i ent th
B e ji c ncd w i th e A s i                  ii
                                      a-Pac fcE c           c
                                                    onom i C ounc l i
 A              on n               n
( PE C )s es s i i Sh angh aii Oc e 2    tob r 001,w ouldresult
 n      h          e       ers      i
i m uc enh anc dund tandng anda s teadl i p rov i     iy m         ng
bliateral relati         p      s       c on
                  onsh i . Th i exp e tati w as p arti ularly c
    d                 n
ev i en t am on g i terloc               n       n     n
                                utors i C h i a i July an d
    om                 l cy                 li
enc p as s eda pubi l exp res s edw i l ngnes s ,e en d i v     es re,
     i us      s le ef         s            s
to ds c s m i s i d ensei s ues . Th i w as i c    n ontras t to an
               n           tud              n      gh
earlier C h i es e atti e of m aki g ri teous p ub i               lc
           e         n         ti          s le ef
p ronounc m ents i op p os i on to m i s i d ense p rogram s
  ut              dng
b largely av oi i s eri            i us on, s c ally any f
                             ous ds c s i e p e i                orm
    i us on
ofds c s i th at w ould                    nes e         or gh
                             sugges t C h i eb h av i m i tbe
th e s ub                ti
          ject of legi m ate c                              h
                                    oncern or rep roac . A s a
c            e
 onsequenc ofth eSep tem b r 11,2e                  ks
                                         001 attac on th eW orl     d
      e                                    i ng
Trad C enter andPentagon, th e B e ji m eeti b tw een    ng e
B us h andJi         i         c              s l ef
              ang ddnot oc ur,andm i s i e d ense w as not
p rom i      n      i ri f          n
       nent i th e r b e talks i Sh angh aion th ep eri h ery  p
ofth e A PE C f  orum .
          d
    A m i s t th is alleged C h in es e w illin g n es s to
ac om m od 2and aw ai p ati ntly th eout om eofw h at i
   c          ate     to       t    e             c               s
                ev     ng            i y or
s een as a d elop i U.S. p ol c f C h i ( , m ore na and
b      l or        a)
  roady ,f A s i ,th ere w eres eem i c             i ti
                                        ng ontradc ons . Th es e
c         i ti
  ontradc ons p rom i             nc ud
                          nently i l edth e arres ts andtri     als
(          s          ep
 andsub equent d ortati                      c      nes     h
                                ons) ofeth ni C h i e s c olars
                 c                                 n
w ith A m eri an con n ection s , th e con ti u in g h ars h
  rac ow
c kd n on th e F alun G ong m ov em ent, th e s h arp
     nes         ti
C h i e reac on to th e red ti   uc ons of m iil tary -to-m ilitary
c       ts ni ated b th e U.S. D ep artm ent of D ef
  ontac i ti            y                                  ense i n
2            th       l ng
  001,and eh andi ofth eA p ri 2              ow ng
                                      l 001 d ni ofth e U.S.

                                170
                    e rc t.
E P-3 s urv eillanc ai raf Th es e top i s c  c ould not be
    d        rui ully b th e auth or i m os t op en ds c s i
ad res s edf tf         y               n             i us ons
 n    d 001; h ow ev er, p oi
i m i -2                                     e y          nes ,
                              nts w ere m ad b th e C h i e
           n     v        i us ons
m os tly i p ri ate ds c s i , th at th es e s h ould b        e
     ers
und toodas exc p ti e onal s i   tuati ons andkep t i cn ontext
 th       nes
( e Ch i e c     ontext, of c        .          nes     d,
                              ours e) Th e C h i e s i e th ey
             , i
s ugges ted d d not link th es e ev en ts to th e B us h
    m ni       on    iy
ad i s trati p ol c tow ard C h i                 s l ef
                                         na or m i s i e d ens e
in itiativ es ; and it w as h op ed th at an A m erican
     ers     i             ac      nv
und tandng of th e f tors i olv ed w oul i       d nsure th at
  i us ons of m i s ile d en s e is s ues w ould not be
ds c s i              s        ef
        i ed y
p rejudc b th es e unrelatedev ents .
          m i ati                                   l ce
    Th e i p l c ons w ere th at th es e ev ents refe t dth ree
    m    l om s i ac
p ri ariy d e t c f tors :
     1. An ob e s i w i h th e Tai an i s ue t at ov e d s
               s s on        t            w        s      h        rri e
  ons d rat ons of h ow i m i t afe t re ati
c ie i                         t     gh        fc                  t
                                                      l ons w i h th e
                                  c ty
Uni e States . Th es tate s e uri organs h add
      td                                                         ly
                                                           ogged s unk
     i        nto       s           h              s
th e r teeth i th ei s ueofs c olars “m i us i i orm ating” nf          on
about th e m ai         ,
                 nland es p e i         n        h
                                c ally i suc m atters as m aki          ng
  om      s       th      w          i
c p ari ons w i Tai an soc ety andth e li In a w ri     ke.           tten
res p onse to ques ti ons s ub i m ttedto Ji            y
                                                 ang b th e N e York
                                                                 w
   m s, t                                  h
Ti e i w as as s ertedth at th e s c olars w ere “m em b rs of      e
     w
Tai an es p i  onage organi atiz ons” andh ad“engagedi s p y        n
ac v i e on m any oc as i
   ti ti s                c ons on th e m ai         nlandofC h i    na.”3
   s reti              e           or                nes
D i c on ov errod v alor f th os e C h i e ofi i w h o       fc als
rec       z                v      fc               na
     ogni edth e negati e efe ts on C h i of s uc ac ons.     h     ti
                    c           ti
M oreov er,A m eri an reac ons to th e d           etenti ons andtri   als
             v       gh      ori n                  ng
w ere not gi en h i p ri ty i ev aluati th e c ad th e       rus e;
      i nc or           ti                     od
aude e f th e ac ons w as th e b y of eth ni C h i e          c      nes
   h                                  nc i
s c olars abroad w h o are i l ned to und                  ertake s uc   h
                        nes         lc
w ork— andth e C h i e p ub i . A s Senator Jos ep h B i en,          d
       rm                                 i
C h ai an ofth eU.S. Senate F ore gn Relati s C om m i  on           ttee,
    d ter         ng th ang and er ofi i at B e d h e
s ai af m eeti w i Ji                     oth        fc als        i ai
 n                                 th          n
i A ugus t 2001, “Th ey [ e C h i es e] are s en dn g a             i
            tle                       A        c
not-so-s ub m es s age. You [ m eri ans] h av e a p rob e              lm
   th C nes        ti               ]        s
w i [ h i e ac ons tow ard Paki tan,w i Iran; w eh av eth
         lm     th A         c       ti               ] w
a p rob e w i [ m eri an ac ons tow ard Tai an.” B i en               d


                                  171
   d ang ap p earedp reoc up i dw i th e f ofth ei land
s ai Ji                  c e        th   ate      s
                                   4
   i ng       s       bl       nc .
B e ji regard as a re e p rov i e
      .
     2 Paranoi ab th eF alun G ong on th ep art ofJi
                a out                                    ang.
Ji                            l i       onv nc d           m
   ang,p ers onally ,w as s ti lfrm ly c i e th at th eregi e
                    y                     c ”
w as th reatenedb th e F alun G ong “ ult, andno one w i     th
 nf       e           t      ent         ul       onv nc m
i luenc th ough t i p rud or us ef to try to c i eh i
ofth ec              uc v h         ter        ti
         ounterp rod ti ec arac ofth e ac ons ; m oreov er,
      am     gn      i redt
th e c p ai to ds c i th e m ov em ent andp ersuad th e  e
                             ts
C h in es e p eop le of i ev il n ature w as , in d      eed    ,
suc eedng— s o w h y relent now ?5
    c i
        .
      3 Inse uri y of Ji
              c t             ang ab           s uture e p e i
                                       out h i f          , s c ally as
C h ai an of th e C M C . Ji
         rm                                                  s
                                     ang, alth ough m i led b th e  y
m ii l tary as to th e antec d                        m
                                 e ent and p roxi ate c es and aus
 i um            e            olli on
c rc s tanc s ofth e c s i betw een th e PL A Nav y F -8
                                , i           nk t
andth e U.S. N av y E P-3 ddnot th i i p rud to takeon      ent
                  ers p
th e PL A lead h i ab                             cd
                               out th e p os t-ac i ent ev ents or th e
     i             out
th e r anger ab th em i                       ons p
                                litary relati h i m ac i           ons y
                                                             h nati b
            c
U.S. Se retary of D ef        ense D onald Rum s f . Ji  eld ang w as
reluc    tant to i            i        ng       nst
                  gnore th e r ranti agai th e Uni States      ted
  e aus        s     gh om i ate s                c
b c e th i m i t c p l c h i exp e tedretenti ofth e             on
       ti             rm
p os i on as C h ai an ofth e C entral M ii                          s on
                                                     l tary C om m i s i
af          s
    ter h i u p c i om ng reti     rem en t f                    ti
                                               rom th e p os i ons of
          d               n                        s
Pres i en t of C h i a an d C om m uni t Party G en eral
    c                       dng onf
Se retary . Th us av oi i c rontati w i th e m i on      th         litary
       ers p s
lead h i i a m ajor p art ofJi               s f
                                        ang’ efort to ens ure th at h e
        ns     nf         al
retai an i luenti p os i on and rote ts h i as p i on to
                                  ti        p      c       s     rati
     n                       er”           om          l
gai “p aram ount lead s tatus c p arab eto th at enjoy ed
  y            aop ng
b D eng Xi i andM ao Z d                          , onsequently ,w as
                                       e ong. H e c
        nci           onf
not i l nedto c ront th e m ii          l tary andi b   n oth i         e
                                                                 nstanc s
                         ts
let th e PL A h av e i w ay .
                                                   e    d
    In sh ort, th es e ev ents th at s eem ed to b av oi able
 nc d
i i ents , alm os t gratui        y        ng
                            tous l h arm i th e relati onsh ip
   th         ted                  h    teri ed y
w i th e Uni States ,w ere c arac z b th e C h i e       nes
as Ji                         ng      m    l      om   c
      ang and oth ers p lay i p ri ari y to d es ti — not
internati              i nc s            s
          onal— aude e . Th ere i anoth er i p ortantm
as p ect to th is s om ew h at oblique exp lan ation of
contradc        ond t f             y   nes     c ali
        i tory c uc oferedb C h i e s p e i s ts . Th es e


                                  172
 om i ati      n           ons p               n
c p l c ons i th e relati h i w ere not i any w ay a
     ti             s l ef        ni ati         i
reac on to U.S. m i s i e d ense i ti v es , ne th er th os e
     n                            s les n or s h ort-range
agai s t long-range nuclear m i s i
 onv
c enti          s les     c i                  nes       e
        onal m i s i ,ac ordng to th es e C h i e s ourc s .

     na                           s
C h i Is th e Target ofNuclear M i s ile D efense.

          n                s                        n eed
     C h i es e s p eciali ts s ugges t th at, i d , th eir
                s       ng              ,
gov ernm ent i taki a m easured reas onable ap p roac to      h
           s l ef            ni ati              o,
U.S. m i s i e d ense i ti v es . Th ey d nev erth eles s ,
        ,           gh        y as        ,
argue rath er ri teous l ( usual) th at U.S. s tatem ents
about nati             s le ef
             onal m i s i d enses not b i i             ed or
                                            e ng ntend f us e
agai           na’ nterc
      nst C h i s i         onti             s c s le IC
                                 nental balli ti m i s i ( B M )
 orc               redb
f e are not c i le. One i          nterlocutor p oi nted out th at
     na         en      ac     n
C h i h as b e a f tor i U.S. c e       onc rns ab       ef i
                                                    out d endng
 ts         nst
i elfagai or d              ng s l          ks nc h
                     eterri m i s i eattac s i et em i d ofd le
            e                                nes            o
th e las t c ntury . M oreov er, m os t C h i e exp erts d not
            ous
take s eri ly th e exp res s i                     onc rn
                                   ons of U.S. c e s about
    s l h
m i s i e t reats f                           ”      ng
                     rom th e “rogue s tates , argui generally
                           s le orc s
th at North K orean m i s i f e are not now ,andw i not     ll
  e om , gni i ant,andth at N orth K orea andoth er rogue
b c e s i fc
nati              en
      ons h av e b e andw i l c l ontinue to b d            y
                                                e eterredb th e
               ng        onv
ov erw h elm i U.S. c enti                      l ar ap b l t e
                                  onal andnuc e c a i i i s .
                                            ef       tes i
    Th e geograp h y ofth e p rop os edd ense s i (n A las ka)
                    nes       e        e          c fc     h
s eem s to th eC h i eto b a p lac m ent s p e i i ally c os en to
       c
p rote t th e Uni                        n         na’
                     ted States agai s t C h i s long-range
   s ls          c                       ni
m i s i e — w h i h th ey term a m i m al d       eterrent ars enal.
                                 nes           on
B as edon th ep rev alent C h i e as s erti th at North K orea
 s                                 al                    ted
i not a realp res ent or p otenti th reat to th eUni States ,
                                  e          s     ef
th e argum ent th at th e p lac m ent i to d end agai         nst a
                        s i ounted ev en sc
Py ongy ang th reat i ds c             ,              .
                                                orned Th e C h i s e
                                                                ne
b li v e frm ly and s tate p ub i l w h at s ev eral h aw ki h
  e e     i                          l cy                         s
        c                     s                  l cy
A m eri ans h av e s tated( om e m ore p ubi l th an oth ers )       :
Re       ls              s
   garde s ofw h at i s ai ,C h i i th et
                             d      na s            t           s l
                                                arge ofU.S. m i s ie
                       ted              c e s n ev
d f nse . Ifth eUni States s uc e d i d elop i a s m all
  ee s                                                    ng
i      e       orc ,
 nterc p tor f e W as h i     ngton w i i             l
                                          ll nexorab y m ov e to a
                ap         orc ,                    oudy
larger,m orec ablef e th ey as s ert. L es s l l s p oken i         s
         i ng oes
th at B e ji d not trus t W as h i        ngton as a w orldp lay er


                                173
   th    h   orc
w i s uc a f eany m ore th an W as h i                 i ng
                                      ngton trus ts B e ji
   th ts         b
w i i s m all ( ut p rob      nc
                        ably i reas i             s
                                     ng) and ob oles c nte
 b        erni i                        l     ul
( ut m od zng)IC B M ars enal,allegedy us ef only as a
d eterrent.
    Itall d p e s on W as h i
              e nd                   ngton,as th eC h i s es e i . In th e
                                                       ne      et
                    nes ,          h                 -f
ey es ofth e C h i e m uc ofth e to-and ro on th e m i s i              s le
  ef                   ep        s
d ens e is s ue d end on th e s tate of th e bilateral
       ons p
relati h i andth e d                                           ac
                                egree ofm utual trus t, a f tor th at
                  e       ly
could erod bad , rem ain s tagn an t, or im p rov e
   gn f c                       on d
s i i i antly . Th ey c s i er th at th e quali of th e        ty
       on        p ep         s
relati s h i d end alm os t w h olly on W as h i                  ngton’   s
    nki              ti                   i         c v ,
th i ng andac ons. F rom th e r p ers p e ti e an i p ortant    m
f         s
 actor i w h eth er W as h i                   nd ,         e      s n
                                 ngton h as ,i eed m ad ,or i i th e
     e
p roc s s ofm aki               und             h        n ts
                     ng, a f am ental c ange i i s trategi                 c
              th        c            na.
outlook w i res p e t to C h i A p rom i                    nes
                                                  nent C h i eth i      nker
 n ks n
i tal i W as h i                 n
                      ngton i early s um m er 2      001 op i      th
                                                              ned at h e
               s
th ough t h i gov ernm ent h adtaken a w ai                -s
                                                     t-and eeatti e.  tud
        m                             s
F or h i andoth ers ,th ere i th e h op e th at th e U.S. ad eres     h
                  na     iy
to a one-C h i p ol c andth at th e b l           i ateral relati   onsh i p
                       um              k, ut        s
returns to a les s b p y trac b th ere i no c l i y et.   oncus on
Th e ap p aren t w arm i         ng of Si                      on
                                             no-U.S. relati s af         ter
             e
Sep tem b r 11 and th e c i i truncordal, f                ,
                                                      ated B us h -Ji    ang
       ng n                  ,                  nes
m eeti i Sh angh ai h av e m os t C h i e w ond ng i th e     eri f
           e         ons p          ll       s
enh anc drelati h i w i p ers i t or return to b c                i keri  ng
                          i                m
ov er th e s am e oldds p utes as ti e p as s es .
          d 001 anoth er C h i es trategi t and p e i s t i
    In m i -2                     nes            s      s c ali n
       c           i s es ri ed          h    s
A m eri an s tude d c b tw o s c ool ofth ough t i C h i    n    na
                           s       onv c on
on U.S. s trategy . Onei th ec i ti th at U.S. s trategy i        s
   m
“ai edat C h i                      s                        s
                  na.” Th e oth er i th at U.S. s trategy i m ore
glob         i ted ( m ed at m uc m ore th an C h i . H e
     ally drec         ai               h                   na)
n oted th at, p red         ating B u s h            m
                                                  ad in is tration
            e               d         li       i
p ronounc m ents ,Pres i ent W i l am C l nton h ads tatedth e
           f           oc             a.
U.S. s h i t to a f us on A s i Th es e and oth er suc            h
                    e y
argum ents m ad b oth er i       nterloc  utors s eem edto h oldout
                               i y or      na          a
th ep ros p ect th at U.S. p ol c f C h i andA s i w as not y et
 n on rete, an d th at i w as s till in th e p roces s of
i c c                           t
 orm        on, m       ng                  ty or
f ulati i p ly i an op p ortuni f th os e i B e ji        n    i ng
                      nf       e t.     s oup          th
andels ew h ere to i luenc i Th i ,c ledw i th e ev ents

                                   174
 n          e            tob r, nc              i ng’
i Sep tem b r andOc e e ourage B e ji s h op es th at,
 es te
d p i U.S.-Rus s i d                ng, t            en
                    an eal-m aki i h as not b e relegated
                          v                  s l ef         s
to an altogeth er p as s i e role on th e m i s i e d ense i s ue.
     A w ell-c      c       ad c
              onne tedac em i rem arkedth at h eari U.S.       ng
   c                        i
Se retary ofState C ol n Pow ell andRum s f talk ab   eld           out
 s
i s ues relati    ng to C h i na or ab               c
                                           out w h i h C h i  na w as
 onc rnedw as l ke li teni to tw o gov ernm ents . H e m ad
c e                 i     s     ng                                    e
    s s          on           ay                    v i
th i ob erv ati on th ed th at Pow ell arri ed n B e ji i      i ng n
July 2                        or              ng
         001 to p rep are f th e m eeti betw een th e tw o
      d                             n
p res i ents , th en 3 m onth s i th e f                     nes
                                            uture. Th e C h i e are
 onv nc d
c i e th at th ey h av e taken th e rati                     ti
                                                  onal p os i on and
                                   m
th at it is th e B u s h ad in is tration, i its early n
            e                  av ng
p ronounc m ents about f ori Jap an and Tai an and          w
  e ng i                na,                  uc ng
b i frm er on C h i th at w as p rod i unc rtai and     e nty
i       ii y n
 nstab l t i th eb l                   ons p
                      i ateralrelati h i — andc d      oul return to
          e i ng’                 s
th at onc B e ji s s up p ort i s een as no longer need i th eed n
                  s                    ,         nes o
w ar on terrori m . Furth erm ore th e C h i e d not b l e e    ei v
           i ond t                        h
th at th e r c uc w arrants s uc h ars h treatm ent and
i       ng f           y
 nsulti afronts b W as h i                         us , or
                                 ngton. Th ey ref e f exam p le,
       c     z             i ng’ i             ti
to re ogni e th at B e ji s frm p os i on on th e Tai an          w
      l m nc udng ts           us
p rob e i l i i ref al to renounc th e us e off e e               orc ,
   us         s          h                gh
p l oth er i s ues s uc as h um an ri ts ,m akes W as h i       ngton
 onc ud              i ng s
c l e th at B e ji i th e c p ri     ul t.

C H IN E SE R E A C TION TO D E F E NSE S A G A INST
          NM
IC B M S ( D )

                                 m ni        on
    A lth ough th e B us h ad i s trati h as m erged th e
 onc p
c e ts of nati                s l ef           N
                    onal m i s i e d ense ( M D ) and th eater
   s le ef            TM
m i s i d en s e ( D ) i                   om
                                nto th e c m on term m i s i   s le
                             6
  ef                  M             na’        ti     an e
d en s e s y s tem ( D S) , C h i s reac on s c b s t be
  es ri e                 ed     le           ng
d c b dandanaly z w h i p res erv i th e ds ti ti of i nc on
  ef             nst
d enses agai IC B M s andd enses agaief           nst s h ort-range
     m     i             alli c s l s SRB M s and RB M s )
and edum -range b s ti m i s i e (                        M        .
                           na,    le know led ng th eb urri
F or th em os t p art,C h i w h i ac             gi         l    ng
         i nc on, onti
ofth e ds ti ti c                      je t             n if
                            nues to ob c to th e tw o i dferent
                  if               s
w ay s andon dferent ground ,andth ere are als o s p e i i      c fc



                                175
  je ti           onc p                      ng
ob c ons to th e c e t ofM D S— th e m ergi ofth e tw o
 onc p
c e ts i                            ef         d
        nto s om e s ort oflay eredd ense ofw i e areas .

M easuredC h i             t on.
              nes e Oppos i i

        i ng s
     B e ji i not ranti ab        ng                       s
                                         out N M D . It i n ot us i    ng
         s
alarm i t exp res s i               s              ng n
                        ons andi not engagi i nam e-c ng,         alli
     t        ten oes                 s
as i s o of d on oth er i s ues — andas i ddearl e on   t i       ir
    s                 s           f              c      e
th i one. Th ere i little,i any ,rh etori al exc s s ,as w as th e
  as n
c e i th e f of 2  all       000 w h en th e D ef             te
                                                    ense W h i Pap er
  es ri e                 w       s
d c b d th e Tai an i s ue as “ om p l c     c      i ated and gri .”m
    s         n     s          ef
A b ent i m i s ile d en s e ds c s i     i us ons are th e term s
h e m oni m andp ow e p ol t c andth e ac us ati , l ke
   ge         s                 r    i i s,             c      ons i
th os e f                   te                  e n i
         rom th e W h i Pap er, th at “c rtai b g p ow ers are
           n     n                         s      an ]
p u rs ui g ‘ eo- in terv en tion i m ’ [ d n eo-gunboat
  i          y
dp lom ac .” In Ji            s
                        ang’ w ri   tten res p onses to th e N e York
                                                                w
Ti e ques ti
   m s                    n
                   ons i A ugus t 2      001, th e p oi             s l
                                                        nts on m i s i e
  ef                            1)    na oes         av
d ense are only th at ( C h i d not f or th e p rop os ed
U.S. m ov e th at i f                           ie           c
                      t ears w ouldjeop ardz s trategi s tab l t ,  ii y
 2 t s                  i us
( )i w i h es to ds c s s oluti         ons th at w ouldnot h arm th e
   c ty                 d,          3       na
s e uri ofany s i e and( ) C h i need to m ai        s             n
                                                              ntai th e
                                                           7
   fc v                ts
efe ti enes s ofi “s elf ef                     l ar orc .
                                 -d ense” nuc e f e

                            d
NM D C an B e Ov erw h elm e or D efeated.

                                  k y       nes nterloc
      Th at w as th e tone s truc b C h i e i            utors . In
        ,
June a p rom i              nes      nk                    ar
                  nent C h i e th i tanker w ent s o f as to
            a        m i c                   na ouldtolerate ten
sugges t ( bit s i p l s ti ally )th at C h i c
i        e        s l s e aus                      ef
 nterc p tor m i s i e b c e th at w ouldnot d eat C h i s      na’
  0
2 IC B M s and th at C h i       na c      , n        as , ui d
                                      ould i any c e b l
    dti                  n
ad i onal IC B M s i th e 10 or m ore y ears b f    e ore s uc ah
s y s tem c         e e         — f t
            ould b d p loy ed i i w orks . On th e m atter of
           fc y               nes      c ali      nk
N M D efi ac , m any C h i e s p e i s ts th i th at i w i l  t l
                         t e nly w i l not w ork s oon. Sev eral
not w ork andth at i c rtai             l
ref        to                                 not ne nki
     erred N M D as G reat W all or M agi L i th i ng. A
                   fc
PL A general of i er,w h o i c         d               c nker,
                                s onsi ereda s trategi th i
  om                                      s l ef
c m entedon th e analogy th at m i s i e d ense i a trai s        n
                   y     t         on.        d       gh
th at h as alread lef th es tati H es ai th at m i t be true
  ut                  ks               om         fc v
b th at th e trac are not y et c p lete; efe ti e m i s i      s le


                                 176
 ef      ,n s e        m y              eas b    s c ally
d ense i h i v i w ,s i p l m ay not be f i le, e p e i
 n
i th e s h ort term .

NM D W ill C os t a L ot andNot W ork.

                        ti        n f
     Som e put a p os i v e s p i (or C h i               s
                                               na)on th i argum ent,
           ng           na l
sugges ti th at C h i w i lnot f                         e
                                         ollow th e Sov i t exam p le of
      ti             d
reac on to Pres i ent RonaldReagan’ Strategi D efs            c     ense
    ti v      SD ,
Ini ati e ( I or Star W ars ) b c                         l
                                           ut ould eas i y m ai    ntai n
     fcent m i s i
s uf i i                            om             ef
                 s les to ov erc e th e d enses w h i e th e      l
     ted                  s                        e
Uni States exp end enorm ous res ourc s on i i f c v e   ts nefe ti
   s
ob es s i on. C h i                    ll nc                m
                   na, th ey s ay , w i i reas e andi p rov e i        ts
                     ut                   l        e e
IC B M ars enal,b U.S. N M D w i l not b a c ntrali p etus      m
 or
f th at und           ng e aus                 s
               ertaki b c e N M D i not exp e tedto w ork c
                          nes             ar
v ery w ell. Som e C h i e go s o f as to argue th at f er          ew
          e                                      e xp
res ourc s th an plannedneednow to b e end on IC B M      ed
      erni ati      e aus              y
m od z on b c eN M D ,b w h atev er nam e w i lnotbe        , l
   fc v ,
efe ti e th at m i            f      v      h
                      nor ofensi e c anges w i c       ll onti   nue to
       om     i fc      ef      v
ov erc e df i ult d ensi e m odfc ons.    i i ati
                            fc r           s
     Th e PL A general ofi e s trategi t, w h en p res s ed   ,
                  s               i          d
tem p ered h i argum ent a b t. H e s ai th at alth ough
   f              s le ef                      eas b e f
ef ectiv e m i s i d en s es m ay be in f i l , i th e
    h
tec nol         s                       e ui               c
         ogy i p res ent, th ey w ould b b lt; no A m eri an
      d
p res i ent c          us      o                  ore as
              ouldref e to d s o. H ow ev er, h e f c t th at
NMD c          not     ev        bf           of s e ad,
         ould bed elop ed e oreth eend th i d c e s o
     na         m             ts    l ar orc s       fc v
C h i h as ti e to ensure i n uc e f e are efe ti e. It
 s
i , of c         ,
          ours e h ard to d        ne f s
                            eterm i i th i th em e of N M D
 nefectiv enes s i m outh ed i ord to ds c
i f                  s            n     er       i ourage its
  ev                                     n
d elop m en t or becaus e th e C h i es e h av e, i d ,n eed
 onv nc d                      t ll
c i e th em s elv es th at i w i not w ork. Th elatter s eem s
m os t likely .

No Nuclear A rm s Race.

         na, t      d oes                       res    e
    C h i i w as s ai ,d n ot w ant to exp end ourc s on
  ui dng             h                  orc ; t
b l i up a m uc larger IC B M f e i w ants b             oth
  c       c ev
e onom i d elop m ent anda d                     om i
                                eterrent. Th at c b nati  on
          eas b             nes     c ali
s eem s f i le to th e C h i e s p e i s ts . A PL A general
   fc                               s
of i er s ugges ted th at C h in a’ res p on s e w ould b   e

                                 177
p rop orti                             n             e
          onal andw ouldnot res ult i an arm s rac or ev en a
    ori tem i th eC h i ed enseb get. C h i h es ai ,
p ri ty i       n         nes ef          ud        na,     d
          o          ngs ut                   t
w ould d extra th i , b jus t enough ; i w ould not go
ov erb      .            d        na              t
       oard Oth ers s ai C h i w ouldnot reac s trongl to y
                  d          ui d               e
N M D and w oul not b l a large num b r of m i s i .    s les
     l ar                 i l an      c ali        ,
Nuc e w eap ons,onec v ii s p e i s t argued arejus t f     or
d           e                            na  ll
  eterrenc , not real w eap ons . C h i w i not w as te i   ts
         e
res ourc s on a us eles s s y s tem .
                                  ng
     Th ere h as abitofgloati am ong s om eofth es p e i s ts    c ali
th at th e Uni                          i            ed
                  tedStates w ouldl kely p roc e h eadong and  l
s p endan enorm ous am ount ofm oney on a s y s tem not li             kely
                th          ng i            nt
to w ork and at,p utti a fner p oi on earl e argum ents ,ir
   f      v      s ls
ofensi e m i s i e andi agi   m           v              on
                                    nati e p enetrati tec ni    h ques
          ar       e        h               ev s
w ere f eas i r and c eap er to d i e andp rod e t an          uc h
  ef        v      s              om
d en s i e m i s iles and c p lex target ds c m i        i ri nati       on
     h     ogi s
tec nol e . H ow ev er, none of th e i                 oc         v
                                               nterl utors , e en i       n
                        ati           oni                  ti
res p onseto p rov oc v eques ti ng,took a p os i on th at th e
       ted
Uni States w ould                     ay t
                           rue th ed i und       ertook N M D agai t    ns
          s           ly      nes ,               ng
th e w i e and w i C h i e or any th i res em bi th at         l ng
       ti                              l
p os i on. Oth er th reats andb us ter w ere not ofered Th e f      .
                   onv
tone of th e c ers ati                       ld
                              ons res em b e th at taken b Sh a   y
Z                rec
  ukang, D i tor of th e A rm s C ontrol D ep artm ent i                  n
      na’     ni               i      f rs n
C h i s M i s try ofF ore gn A fai ,i M arc 2           h 001 w h en h e
    d         v      f               ev           y
s ai th at,e en i N M D w ere d elop edb th e Uni States ,   ted
      na                   cs      l                i al
C h i w ould not ne e s ari y take radc s tep s s uc as               h
    th raw ng rom th e C om p reh ensi e Tes t B an Treaty
w i d i f                                      v
 i         ng            i     ts
[m p ly i als o endng i m oratori                         l ar
                                             um on nuc e w eap on
tes ti ,as h adb e th reatenedp rev i ly .8
        ng]            en                        ous

          d d           t
NM D W oul Re uce Securi y .

            ,                       on            e ten
     Instead th e gentler sugges ti w as m ad of th at th e
Uni                       na
      tedStates andC h i m i t b gh          e e      c
                                       oth b l s s s e ure as a
                                 fc             s        i l an
result ofN M D . Th e general of i er s trategi t anda c v ii
     c ali n      i ng     d      na s onc rned about th e
s p e i s t i B e ji s ai C h i i c e
       fc ons f outer s p ac , f ng a U.S. m ov e to p ut
ram i i ati      or             e eari
    s l ef          n       e          nv te
m i s i e d ens es i s p ac w ould i i oth ers to em p loy
           n      e           t         i tab y
w eap ons i s p ac or to reac unp redc l to onec               s
                                                        ountry ’


                                  178
          zng       e                                    d e n
“w eap oni i s p ac .” In th e s h ort term ,th ere w oul b a
 nc        n       ap b l t
i reas e i th e c a i i y of th e Uni                      ef
                                           tedStates to d end
 ts ; ut n                              ted
i elf b i th e long term th e Uni States w i l “ ent.”l rep
                                                ted
Th e general w ent on to argue th at th e Uni States s p ent
                ui i
m any y ears b ldng a nonp rol f            on     m
                                     i erati regi e and now
s eem s to be th row i                                  n ti
                        ng all th at aw ay an d i v i n g
     ie
p rol f ration. Th e c             s
                      rux of h i argum ent w as th at th e
nati          c ty
      onal s e uri of one country c        annot be bas ed on
 nc          nse uri                             s
i reas edi c ty ofoth ers , andth at ab olute s e uri      c ty
c         e h e .
  annot b ac i v ed D ef                            ,       m
                           enses , h e sugges ted s om eti es
 nv te      i e on                          t.     i
i i p rol f rati rath er th an stop i A s dd oth ers , h e
    n            i
p oi ted th e f n ger at c   ountries oth er th an C h i a,  n
 ore as ng         n      ti                s l ef
f c ti th at,i reac ng to U.S. m i s i e d ense C h i    ,    na
   l o          ew    ngs               l o      h
w i l d jus t a f th i ; oth ers w i l d m uc m ore.
     Oth ers elab                  s
                   orated on th i th em e. A n arm s c        ontrol
     c ali       d
s p e i s t s ai s om e c          e                 t
                           ountri s w ould reac to NM D b          y
  ev       ng      m           ap b l t
d elop i an i p rov ed c a i i y to p enetrate d enses ;    ef
                                              s       ei
oth ers w ould turn to oth er m eth od of d l v ery or to
           v        h     i ogi al
alternati es s uc as b ol c w eap ons . H e th en m ad a         e
       am l ar                     d
les s f ii argum ent. H es ai N M D w ouldleadto a s ense
    als     c ty       t                           ted
off es e uri . Ifi w ere to w ork,th eUni States w oul             d
f                     n                          or
 eel s ecure agai s t N orth K orea, f exam p le. Yet
W as h i               , n ui dng       s l ef
         ngton w ould i b l i m i s i e d ens es , not only
h av e f                  z                     ut
         urth er antagoni edPy ongy ang b als o w ouldh av e
 ai e          v
f l d to gi e th e ap p rop ri                on
                                ate attenti to res olv i th eng
      erly ng       lm
und i p rob e s i relati  n                th
                                   ons w i N orth K orea— and
p robably f    urth er exacerbated th em . To bols ter h i         s
                      d
argum ent, h e s ai Py ongy ang h as reac              av      l
                                                  ted f orab y to
ov ertures f          i ng
              rom B e ji andM os c to cow              l ts    s le
                                                  urtai i m i s i
p rogram . A tough m es s age f  rom W as h i                  s le
                                               ngton about m i s i
  ef
d ense w ouldb c                   uc v ,               .
                    e ounterp rod ti e h e argued A lm os t i      n
        ng,       d               s s
p as s i h e ad edth at all th i i about a country th at d       oes
        n        e
not, i th e v i w ofC h i                redb e        l ar s le
                           na, p os e a c i l nuc e m i s i
th reat to th e Uni   ted States — a c  ountry th at w ants and
need b tter relati
       s e            ons w i th e Uni States .9
                             th          ted
           c ali n i ng           t        i i al s           d
    A s p e i s t i B e ji gav ei a geop ol t c tw i t. H es ai
      f        s       or s l ef                  om       ,
th at i B us h ’ p lan f m i s i ed enses w ere c p leted th e
       w       b i d nto                       ov
w orld ould edv i edi tw o p arts : th at c eredb M D S,y

                               179
             t    ov     .                        i
andth at lef unc ered Th at returns us to a b p olar w orl . d
            c ty       lm     n                 as on
Th ereal s e uri p rob e s i th ew orldareb ed lac of      k
                   d
trus t. M D S w oul exac rb                erly ng
                           e ate th e und i p rob e of  lm
   k
lac oftrus t betw een v ari ous c      e
                                 ountri s andw ork c  ounter to
      onc p       onfd e ui dng                     C
th e c e t of c i enc -b l i m eas ures ( B M s ) h e     ,
argued  .

North K orea No Th reat.

     A s m enti            ous                nes
               onedp rev i ly ,th e C h i e argue f          requently
          th onv c on                            s
andw i c i ti th at N orth K orea i not now ,andw i l                 l
        e om ,
not b c e a th reat to th e Uni        tedStates . A s one c v iii l an
     c ali          t,                s
s p e i s t p ut i N orth K orea’ terri                 s
                                               tory i too s m all to
  ev
d elop a nuclear w eap on s y s tem th at w ould i l e           nc ud
        h ng ac l ti s orc
launc i f ii e , f e p rote ti                      t.
                                          c on, e c North K orea
c           ev             h                       s ls
  annot d elop th e tec nology to get m i s i e ev en to th e
w es tern Uni                                .
                tedStates , h e as s erted In any ev ent, N orth
K orea c             y       h              v      t
           ouldonl launc , not surv i e; i w oul b a real  d e
     cd ,         d            c
sui i e h e s ai em p h ati ally . Sev eral oth ers p oi      ntedout
th at North K orea’ f l              ni ate m ii
                       s ai ure to i ti                       ti
                                                    l tary ac on ov er
h alf                                     n
      -a-cen tury m akes th e p oi t th at th e lead             ers in
Py ongy ang are not i   rrati             nes              s
                              onal. C h i e p res s th i argum ent
                  k      redb
about th e lac of c i le th reat f            rom North K orea i      n
   gni i ant m easure to s u p p ort th e r belief th at U.S.
s i fc                                         i
  ef             nst
d enses agai IC B M s are ulti ately i  m                 ed
                                                   ntend to negate
     na’
C h i s nuc e dl ar eterrent.

  l ng
Pi i On.

              ns            n    ki         nes       c ali
     One gai th e s ensei tal ng to C h i e s p e i s ts on
         s l ef        s                  eal      m
th e m i s i ed ensei s ue th at a great d ofti e h as b e    en
                 v ng
s p ent contri i an d c      atalogui ng argum ents agai s t  n
    s l ef                       n     ei f                  e
m i s i ed enses ,ap p arently i th eb l e th at th enum b r of
                   e l ount i th e d b
argum ents m ad w ilc           n      e ate. A s an exam p le,a
    nk            n i ng d             na s
th i tanker i B e ji s ai th at C h i i w orri d    e about th e
         c                  e ut       e             na
p ros p e t ofan arm s rac b not b tw een C h i andth e
Uni  tedStates . H e f              f
                       earedth at,i th e Uni tedStates b ld ui s
    s l ef
m i s i e d en s es , oth er c       e ould b ld up th e r
                              ountri s c          ui            i
    s l orc s n                                oul
m i s i e f e i res p onse andth en later c dturn th os e


                                 180
    s ls
m i s i e on C h i                             s ls           e
                   na, or at leas t th os e m i s i e w ouldb a
th reat to C h i na. Nev erth eles s , m os t of th e argum ents
   f                   m l i               ten
oferedare along s i i ar l nes andof em p loy p r c s ely ei
                  s                     h            om    s
th e s am e w ord and p h ras es , suc as th e c p ari on of
           th                                not ne
N M D w i th eG reat W all andth eM agi L i m enti           oned
       ous              ni                      onc ud
p rev i ly . A t a m i m um , one m us t c l e th at th e
     c ali                                        al
s p e i s ts h av e all readth e s am e m ateri or h eardth e
            e.
s am e s p i l

Th e Second     ke
           -Stri Is s ue.

               te if            e               f
      Tw o qui dferent v i w s w ere ofered( te ci c )qui l ni ally
  y
b tw o i   nterloc                  s               nes nteres t i a
                     utors on th e i s ue ofC h i e i                n
    c -s ke ap b l t af                    ni al
s e ond tri c a i i y ( ter an i ti U.S. nuc e s tri        l ar      ke
           n .             n                 s
on C h i a) A C h i es e s trategi t s p eaki g (         n    not f  or
        b on)          n          ted              d
attri uti h ere i th eUni States s ai th at C h i need        na       s
        c -stri c a i i y — i ad i on to th e ab l t to
a s e ond         ke ap b l t        n      dti                 ii y
ov erw h elm a U.S. d ense agai
                             ef            nst IC B M s .10 A B e ji
                                                                  i ng
  i l an       c ali                  t
c v ii s p e i s t s ugges ted i w as all m oot. H e argued
     v
p ri ately (                                nes
               and grav ely ) th at C h i e lead        ers w ould b   e
               i
unable to fnda s i                               c    i
                         ngle m ajor A m eri an cty w h ere c os e  l
         v      m                nes         ers o
relati es ofi p ortant C h i e lead d not now l v e. H e        i
  onc ud                  as s                 s
c l edon th at b i th at th ere i no reali ti utii to    s c l ty
      na’
C h i s IC B M s ; th ey h av e only d      eterrent v alue, no real
                             s       f      ,      ri ous
v alue as w eap ons . Th i w as ofered not f v ol ly ,b as a     ut
       ous         s                    th             ted
s eri ap p rai al. H eals o noted at th eUni States h ad                ,
 or            if
f v ery dferent reas on s , elected not to us e nuc e               l ar
             n           n      ,            ng
w eap ons i K orea i 19 5 3 s ugges ti th at ne th er c  i      ountry
                     h
h as th e s tom ac to em p loy th em .

TH E A B M TRE A TY ISSUE

    M os t of th e interloc               i ted n
                           utors p redc , i one w ay or
                      ow                n         ,
anoth er, th at M os c w ouldnot, i th e end s tandfrm ly i
   th     na                          ti              di
w i C h i on th em atter ofop p os i on to any m ed l ng w i th
                 -B    s c s l A                            gh
th e 19 72 A n ti alli ti M i s i e ( B M ) Treaty th at m i t
        t    s       ef
p erm i m i s ile d en s es d i             y        n
                                 es red b W as h i gton b    ut
       b tedb th e treaty . A t leas t as early as June 2
p roh i i      y                                         001,a
p rom i           c ali      d
       nent s p e i s t s ai th at h e exp ected Rus s i toa


                                 181
  onc d ts           ti                         na
c e e i op p os i on to N M D andth at C h i s h ould b       e
      y         ts              i l an     c ali n
read to go i ow n w ay . A c v ii s p e i s t i B e ji  i ng,
     ng              a      or c       c             uc
noti th at Rus s i m us t f e onom i reas ons red e th e
   z     ts     l ar           dn v        e
s i e ofi nuc e ars enal,s ai i ad anc ofth e July 2      001
       n
Puti - B us h m eeting in G en oa th at Rus s ia w ould
  om        s                     s
c p rom i eon th eA B M Treaty i s ue. H eexp lainedf urth er
              ale            a            n ts onc rn
th at on a s c of1-10 Rus s i w as at 10 i i c e about
                             na
N M D and5 about TM D ; C h i w as at 5 on N M D and10 on
                            nto              on
TM D . H e translatedth at i an exp ectati th at M os c    ow
         om        s    th
w ould c p rom i e w i W as h i  ngton andenter i   nto s om e
f          oop     on
 orm ofc erati on N M D andw arh eadnum b rs .     e
         ter      an         d           i r         n
     A f Rus s i Pres i ent V ladm i Puti s tatedp ub i ly         lc
    th         n           n
w i B us h i G enoa i late July 2                     f    v     s ls
                                         001 th at ofensi em i s i e
           s l ef
and m i s i e d ense w ould be treated as a s et, C h i e          nes
     c ali        f      y                 ti
s p e i s ts uni orm l took th ep os i on th at w ew ere later to
h ear f   rom Ji        n     s
                 ang i h i N e York Ti e i
                                    w                          e
                                                 m s nterv i w : th e
m atter c           e           .       by       i onc rn
             ouldb w orked Pos s i l th e r c e w as les s
                      c                     c ,               c
th an m os t A m eri an analy s ts exp e ted th ey exp e tedth at
       n
Puti h adanoth er c                   s        ,       i ng e i ed
                          ardup h i s leev e or B e ji dc d to
             e ac             i i
p ut th e b s t f e on th e r ds ap p oi    ntm ent. A reti  reds enior
           fc             th             c
PL A of i er now w i a s trategi s tude i ti      i s ns tute tolda
s m alli  nternati            i nc n                   n
                   onal aude ei H ong K ong i v ery lateJuly
2                            c           a
  001 th at h e h adexp e tedRus s i to m ake a d w i th eeal th
Uni   ted States on th e m atter, or at leas t th ough t i w as  t
        be                               n
p os s i l . Not ev en th e B us h -Puti Nov em b r 2 e 001 m eeti   ng
         s s
on th i i s ue s eem edto ds c                        nes
                                 i ourage th e C h i e.
    A w ell-c        c         or     nk               t
               onne teds eni th i tanker put i th i w ay : s
     na’
C h i s p ref           e                      i   th
                erenc w as to s tand s ol d w i Rus s i i    a n
         ti      h                                       d
op p os i on to c ange to th e A B M Treaty th at w oul p erm i   t
          ut     na       s                          c or h
N M D ,b C h i h ad een v ery early th ep ros p e tf c ange
 n         a’       ti           d                 n     s
i Rus s i s p os i on. H e s ai th at th ere are i th i m atter
“gray areas .” C h i                     , ould s ti l w ork w i
                       na, h e as s erted c         l           th
        a     tal      th         ted            ng
Rus s i and k w i th e Uni States . Noti th at C h i s        na’
 orm        nc p
f er p ri i al arm s c                fc al,
                             ontrolofi i Sh a Z  ukang,h as s ai d
                i us        s l ef           th        ted
h ew ants to ds c s m i s i ed ens ew i th e Uni States ,
        d                 e ak                ts     s l ef
h es ai th ere couldb t l on th e“m eri ”ofm i s i ed ense
an d on ov erall relati                              s
                              ons ; m ay be th ere i room f     or
m aneuv eri   ng, h e rum i        .     onc ud       th
                             nated H e c l edw i th e h op e

                                 182
th at Ji                     n    i ng n
          ang and B us h , i B e ji i Oc e 2  tob r 001, w oul   d
  i us           s           i
ds c s th e i s ue and fnd s om e w ay out. A lth ough th at
         ng i                 e t l                  i ng
m eeti ddnot takep lac ,i s ti ls eem s th at B e ji w ants
     i             s                e    t,                    v
to fnes s eth ei s ue,m aketh eb s t ofi or at leas t not to gi e
       m        on           na s      c                av
th e i p res s i th at C h i i p ani ky ov er th e unf orable
  ev                               i orm i m ay take as B us h
d elop m ent— w h atev er p rec s e f       t
andPuti c  n onti                   th                   v rom
                     nue to talk w i out a rep res entati e f
   i ng
B e ji p res ent.

         S
C H IN A ’ V IE W S ON TH E A TE R M ISSIL E D E F E NSE
 TM
( D)

TM D to Protect U.S. F orces andB as es Is Okay .

            as    or
     A m b s ad Sh a Z                                 t s
                            ukang,w h o h as now lef h i p os t as
     na’       m
C h i s p ri ary arm s c                 fc al,     or
                               ontrol ofi i h as f h alfa d c e  e ad
    c h s             on
v oi ed i as s erti th at TM D i              ed      ed
                                       ntend to s h i l U.S. f e  orc s
        as     n    a            ers       ab e o i ng
andb es i A s i w ereund tand l t B e ji and ould               w
not d              i al
       raw a radc reac on f                   na.
                              ti rom C h i H e h as ref      erredto
    s                        m       ng
th i as “p ure” TM D , i p ly i ap p arently th at i dd not t i
 nv                         w                        nes
i olv e Jap an or Tai an or th reaten C h i e s trategi               c
    s ls                                   ti     n
m i s i e . H e rep eated th at p os i on i M arc 2        h 001 i   n
                        oni
res p onse to ques ti ng ab                           ep
                                  out U.S. p lans to d loy s y s tem s
             t     orc s as i            a.        d
to p rotec U.S. f e b ed n A s i H es ai ,“Th erei a gray    s
                  na s                  to th        s l ef
areah ere. C h i i not op p os ed [ eater m i s i ed ense].
                t
. . to p rotec troop s andm ii             as           ng
                                  l tary b es .” Noth i h as b e    en
h eardf                c              s s     , frm ng
          rom a suc es s or on th i i s ue afi i or d i        eny ng
            ti       s         en          e aus
th ep os i on. Th i m ay b i p art b c eofth eunc rtai       e nty
                          ted
about w h ere th e Uni States TM D p rogram i h ead as   s        ed
           h                  en                       s l ef
m ajor c anges are m ad i th e ov erall U.S. m i s i ed ense
p rogram and W as h i              s          on
                           ngton’ attenti and res ourc s are   e
  onc ntratedon th e w ar on terrori m .
c e                                         s

F or th e Republic ofK orea (ROK ).

         nes   fcals           c ali
    C h i e of i i ands p e i s ts are generally relaxed
                                   e aus
about TM D and South K orea b c e Seoul h as , s o f      ar,
 h                   cp              s     s a t on
c os en not to p arti i ate. Th ere i s ati f c i am ong th e
     nes                                      oes
C h i e th at p art of th e reas on Seoul d not w ant to


                                183
   tai                    s                o
ob n a TM D s y s tem i th at K oreans d not w ant to “p oke
     na n                                                     e
C h i i th e ey e.” South K oreans h av e exp res s edth e v i w
              s           fc v     ef
th at TM D i not an efe ti e d ense agai              i i
                                              nst th e r b gges t
 onc rn:                        le              orc s
c e N orth K orean arti l ry andoth er f e jus t north
         , h                                       n
ofSeoul t at th e N orth K orean th reat m ay i any c e goas
                                           e       k th
aw ay , andth at th en th e ROK w ouldb s tuc w i a v ery
         v                  ngl     tab e          ef
exp ensi es y s tem s eem i y sui l only to d endagai t      ns
     nes     s les       nes           v ng      h
C h i em i s i . C h i eare not gi i m uc attenti y et    on
to th e rum b il ngs am ong s om e ROK m i            ers
                                          litary lead th at i    t
           e      s      or                t       nd n
w ould b a m i take f th em to get lef beh i i m i s i      s le
  ef         h              h                       nk l e
d ense tec nology — tec nology th at m any th i w i lb an
i                          ern        f e n om ng e ad
 ntegralp art ofany m od arm ed orc i c i d c es .

F or Jap an.

          na’      je ti                  or
     C h i s ob c ons to TM D f Jap an p ers i t. V ari      s         ous
concern s are exp res s ed w ith v arious d                  egrees of
s eri n es s .11 Th e earl e argum ents th at TM D w ould
      ous                       ir
       d
p rov i e a m i           c            th          e d e nd
                litaris ti Jap an w i th es h i l b h i w h i h i    c t
  oul , n                                 ev
c d i a m atter ofm onth s ,d elop andd loy nuc e        ep           l ar
    s ls s                nf
m i s i e i h eard i requently now . Nev erth eles s , th ere
         n onc rns                   h
rem ai c e th at th etec nology s h ared i Jap an as a w th
                                c p on th
result ofJap anes e p arti i ati w i th e Uni States on   ted
                 h         ev
TM D res earc andd elop m ent w i l ai a f   l d uture Jap anes e
  alli c s l                                 c ali
b s ti m i s i e p rogram . One s p e i s t p oi         ntedout th at
Jap anes eA egi            p      s p ouldb us ed n th e Tai an
                    s-equi p ed h i s c          e       i           w
       t, v ous y          nki
Strai ob i l th i ng th at h e h adm ad a telli p oi   e        ng      nt
      c              aus                  c            c l
w h i h w ould c e ev en A m eri ans to re oi at th e v ery
                   h       ng.           nes           en
th ough t ofs uc a th i Th eC h i eh av eb e attenti e to           v
                         i         es
th e Jap anes e s endng ofd troy ers to th e Indan Oc an i i      e      n
       om                                    f     n     gh
nonc bat s u p p ort of th e U.S. efort i A f ani tan. A t      s
         n         e aus           s    nes
leas t i part b c e ofth i C h i e angs t,A egi                    p
                                                             s-equi p ed
     p                        y
s h i s , alth ough alread a p art ofth e Jap anes e M ari m e      ti
      -D ens           e               i      h      y
Self ef e F orc ,w ere not ds p atc edb Pri e M i s ter    m      ni
       c ro
Juni h i K oi um iz .
                               nes                     s
   M ore generally , th e C h i e argue th at TM D i y et
                c      s      n eali      th
anoth er A m eri an m i take i d ng w i Jap an. B e ji  i ng
                      s
argues th at Jap an i th e real f  uture th reat to regi onal


                                  184
       ii y                    ted          s dng
s tab l t andth at th e Uni States i ai i th e p otenti            al
              e                 l tari    y
resurgenc ofJap anes e m ii s m b m any ofth e th i            ngs it
 s oi             d
i d ng to ai th e Jap anes e Self ef    -D ense F orc s ( e JSD F )  .
             c                         anc               en
Th e as p e t ofth eU.S.-Jap an alli eth at h as b e seen as
c           ng             urb ng
  ontrolli Jap an or c i Jap anes em i          litaris m h as ledi n
                    nes      c       e h             anc
th e p as t to C h i e ac ep tanc t at th e alli e w as , on
b         e av       l or      na, ut          s
  alanc , f orab e f C h i b TM D i s een as p art ofa
     f                    anc        ng
s h i t tow ardth e alli e m aki th e JSD F m ore c able      ap
and m ore li    kely to th reaten C h i      v           om
                                        na, e en to c e to th e
                  w     n             n   onfi t—
s u p p ort ofTai an i som e w ay i a c l c es p e i       c ally one
    th         nv
w i U.S. i olv em ent.
                nes nterl utors w i ac
     Som e C h i e i         oc                        ge
                                       ll know led th at th e
                 i onc rn                    or
real root ofth e r c e about TM D f Jap an i th at th e   s
           ,     l       ngi      i
Jap anes e w h i e w ri ng th e r h and abs     out N orth K orean
          on       s
Taep od g m i s iles , are ac       tually looki  ng ov er th eir
        ers          nes     s ls                e
s h ould at C h i e m i s i e . Th e es s enc ofth e c e     onc rn,
        s           na            e l o                 s
th en,i th at C h i w ants to b ab e t h oldat ri k w i i      th ts
  alli c s les
b s ti m i s i Jap an and ofc   ,           ,       as      n
                                     ours e U.S. b es i Jap an
           oes                                lc
andy et d not w ant to m ake loudpubi p ronounc m ents       e
           fc            or                    l
to th at efe t. TM D f Jap an w oulds p oi th at.

        w
F or Tai an.

        i ng onti
    B e ji c                            n
                     nues to exp res s i th e s tronges t term s i ts
         ti               or     w                  d t
op p os i on to TM D f Tai an. It h as s ai i w i l reac     l      t
                          er       s l ef
h ars h ly to th e transf ofm i s i e d ense f     rom th e Uni  ted
                  w                    en
States to Tai an. Th ere h as b e no dm i                 on
                                                 i nuti of th i     s
         ti            dng ef          or    w       v
op p os i on to p rov i i d enses f Tai an,e en as B e ji       i ng
               to
h as s eem ed takeam orem eas ured                     th       c
                                           outlook w i res p e t to
N M D . Th e d         e
                rum b at h as i        fed                   on
                                ntensi i on th e as s erti th at
          or      w      s ad              n ts
TM D f Tai an i b enough i i elf b th at th e          ut
i       uc on                 s l ef
 ntrod ti of real m i s i e d ense th ere w i l m ean fl           ar
greater andc er clos         i    on
                        oordnati betw een th e arm edf e of  orc s
          ted              th           w
th eUni States and os eofTai an. Th at i d c b as    s es ri ed
             onc rn y ar                  qui ti
a greater c e b f th an th e ac s i on ofth e v ari              ous
TM D s y s tem s .
            s       n    na
   Th ere i als o i C h i now a m orei              onc rn
                                           ntens ec e th an
                   ous
exp res s edp rev i ly ab                   c              er
                          out th e p ros p e t ofth e transf of

                                185
         ot     v     e
Patri A d anc dC ap ab l t 3 ( C -3 ground as edai
                                   ii y    PA      )      -b        r
           s le ef                  w          s s
andm i s i d enses to Tai an. Th i i th e m os t li        kely real
                      w          gh     tai
TM D th at Tai an m i t ob n, alth ough i i s ti l a     t s    l
       i                ap               ns
rudm entary c ability agai t s h ort-range balli ti             s c
     s ls            ous          nes onc rns
m i s i e . Prev i ly ,C h i ec e ov er PA C -3h adb e           en
            n av           e ry ng              c v
m utedi f or ofd c i th e p ros p e ti e transf ofs h i s er      p
       p          th                         s r       s l ef
equi p edw i th e U.S. Nav y A egi ai andm i s i e d ense
                               s            ev
s y s tem ,a s y s tem th at i exp ected entually to h av e a TM D
  ap ii y                   nes           ll
c ab l t . Th e C h i e are s ti m ore w rough t up about
        s
A egi th an PA C -3 b now b , ut                        ons d
                                            oth are of c i erable
             12
  onc rn.
c e
               nf              nes         nk
     A w ell-i orm ed C h i e th i tanker h as s ugges ted
              ep
th at th e d loy m ent (              y     y       na
                            alread ) b C h i of 3 or m ore     00
                   alli c
s h ort-range b s ti m i s i e (s l s SRB M s ) i Fuji   n        an, w i th
                       s l s om ng           h
about 5 0 m ore m i s i e c i eac y ear,m i t be s top p edgh
                         w             cp
or rev ers edw ere Tai an to ac e t th e one-C h i p ri i le.na nc p
 H                               i ng ouldnot now m ake s uc a
( e w ent on to s ay th at B e ji c                                     h
         e aus t
m ov e b c e i w oul red    d                          e i
                                   oundto th e b neft of c           urrent
     w            d                     -b an
Tai an Pres i ent C h en Sh ui i and ai h i p ol ti al    d s         i c
p arty , th e h ated D em oc c Progres s i e Party [ PP]13)
                               rati                 v              D    .
                 ,
Furth erm ore oth er C h i e i  nes      nterloc   utors n ow at leas t
    c          act                  s ls                  ng
ac ep t th e f th at th es e m i s i e th reateni Tai an are       w
 nd        e ng ep oy
i eed b i d l ed b th e r m ii y      i       l tary . Th ey now as s ert
                           ers
th at all s h ould und tand th at th e p urp os e of th es e
    s ls s
m i s i e i only f d                    e            w
                       or eterrenc of a Tai an m ov e tow ard
                      or                              ous
autonom y ,not f us e as w eap ons. Prev i ly , e en s eni      v         or
         fc              ten eni d                s l ep
PL A ofi ers h av e of d e th e m i s i e d loy m ents or
    us           i us                je t.
ref ed to ds c s th e sub c Th ey s i p ly s ai th at   m            d
           ng onc rni              w
ev ery th i c e ng Tai an w as p urely an i                         nternal
   f r.       s                         ev
afai It i not th at th es e d elop m ents s i                 gnal th at a
        on          s    s            , ut
s oluti to th ei s uei at h and b at leas t,w h en c i ons        ondti
 or          ng s l s
f rem ov i m i s i e arerai ed                 th ac d
                                   s and ef t of ep loy m ents
  y               red s
b th e h und s i ac                          ged
                                know led , th e p ros p ects f            or
            l i us on                             ati
reas onab e ds c s i andev en negoti on are enh anc d                   e.




                                   186
   gh
M i t th e D oor B e Open a C rack?

        c
     B e aus e of th e i        ni
                        ntertw i ng of TM D and Tai an,   w
    i ng’ onc rns about TM D c e
B e ji s c e                                   ed
                                    l arly exc e th os e ab  out
                              n        f c al
N M D . Noneth eles s , C h i es e of i i an d unof i i  f c al
                                  es         ,
s p okes m en , as h as been d cribed h av e at leas t
ac  know led                     or
              ged th at TM D f U.S. f              n
                                            orces i A s i i a s
            l    th       i                    ng   w
reas onab eand at th e r SRB M s th reateni Tai an exi t      s
                           lm                    n ts
andare p art ofth e p rob e andan elem ent i i p os s i le   b
s oluti on.

C H IN E SE R E A C TIONS TO TH E M E RG ING
OF NM D A ND TM D INTO M D S

Ch i           us on: Real or F eigne ?
    nes e C onf i                    d

              s                 nes        c ali
    Th ere i am ong C h i e s p e i s ts c us i (     onf on or
      es       onf on) about th e B us h ad i s trati s
p rof s ed c us i                                    m ni        on’
         ng
m ergi of N M D and TM D . B ey ond th e unc rtai ,       e     nty
ac know led           y         eld
             ged b Rum s f , about jus t w h at th e new
 onc p               s l ef                   M       m i s 14
c e t of a m i s i e d ense s y s tem ( D S) i p l e , th e
     nes
C h i e as k ques ti                            Tai
                         ons about Jap an and w an. D oes M D S
                                       oop       on th
m eans th at th eJap anes e TM D c erati w i th eUni              ted
                         ,
States w ouldh av e as p art of M D S, an NM D c p onent om
      ns        na’                    s ls
agai t C h i s long-range m i s i e ? Oth ers rai ed th e   s
 s                                               e
i s ue of w h eth er PA C -3 w ould th en b a p art of M D S,
    nki              t
th i ng th at i w as abs olute anath em a to any logi al          c
                               w      w c
p ers on to sugges t th at Tai an ( h i h m ay get PA C -3 c d) oul
  e                              erly ng
b a p art of M D S. Und i m any of th e c e s               onc rn
exp res s ed w as th e p rof   ound w orry : B ey ond th e drec i t
 m i ati           or      na’            orc ,
i p l c ons f C h i s IC B M f e w ould Tai an b            w       e
c                                       ng
 onstruedas p art ofM D S,m eani an ev en greater d            egree
ofc       i     on e                    Tai
    oordnati b tw een U.S. and w an arm edf e ? It i    orc s       s
  i fc           s       y       n
df i ult at th i earl s tagei th e“M D S m erger” to as c rtaie n
th ed                 c          nes onf on s
       egreeto w h i h th eC h i ec us i i real or w h eth er
                        s e ng                          c
th e M D S m atter i b i us edas a p eg on w h i h to h ang
            nes
m ore C h i e argum ents agai                s l ef
                                      nst m i s i e d enses andto
   f
ofer up m ore c e                       w
                    onc rns about Tai an.



                               187
             d               na’      s i     s
M D S C oul Negate A ll C h i s B alli t c M i s ile
A rs enals .

             s nh          n      s nc
     Th ere i i erent i th i i h oate M D S c e t th eonc p
     c                d d               ncudng          as
s p e ter of a w orl w i e s y s tem , i l i s ea-b ed and
      -b
land as ed i          e        s les of v ari
                nterc p tor m i s i           ous s orts and an
   rb              to ll s l s n          i oos
ai orne las er ( ki m i s i e i th e r b t-p h as e as c nt)  e ,
           d       n         y     na’
th at w oul p ut i jeop ard C h i s IC B M d    eterrent ars enal,
 ts                               i
i SRB M s , and ev en m edum -range ballis ti m i s i  c     s les
 M         .          s s t        i ng n
( RB M s ) Pow ell’ v i i to B e ji i late Jul 2             i
                                                   y 001 ddnot
               nes onc rns           s s       s
as s uageC h i ec e on th i i s ue. H i argum ents th at
               s le ef                      d e i tedandno
th e U.S. m i s i d ense s y s tem w oul b l m i
                nes                  s ls         or
th reat to C h i e long-range m i s i e w as ,f th e C h i e  nes ,
  row            y
d nedout b noi es f    s                         d b l
                           rom els ew h ere outs i e ( ut c os e to)
        m ni         on
th e ad i s trati th at s endoth er s i                       l nc
                                           gnals andth e s i e e
    th n            m n s       on
w i i th e ad i i trati , b e on ac    as d         know led   ged
     e nty                        onc p     l v
unc rtai ,about h ow th e c e t w i l e olv e.

        w
Th e Tai an C om p lication.

                         h                   c nsti       n
     A y oung res earc er at a s trategi i tute i Sh angh ai
s um m ed up th e C h in es e v iew of M D S: Th e B us h
    m ni         on’ l        ng               TM s
ad i s trati s b urri ofN M D and D i ap p arently a
                  ov
p rogram to c er m ore c                  e    th        s l -d ense
                                 ountri s w i a m i s i e ef
  l              s om i ates th e C h i e v i w of m i s i e
b anket. Th i c p l c                         nes      e         s l
  ef          th                     w              v
d ens e w i res p ect to Tai an and gi es C h i m ore         na
                je t
reas on to ob c to any f                   s l ef          or
                               orm ofm i s i e d ense f Tai an.  w
     s s                  ti      ev
Th i i n ot a p os i v e d elop m ent f                          nes
                                                   rom th e C h i e
m ii          e      nt.               th                e
    l tary v i w p oi C oup ledw i th e announc dU.S. f us        oc
         a,      s      l v          nes
on A s i th i w i l gi e C h i e h ard i          -l ners a s tronger
                     th                       onc rni
argum ent. A s w i oth er argum ents c e ng Tai an,th e        w
s p eaker c       d               s     nt         en
            onsi eredth at h i p oi h ad b e m ad telli      e    ngly
               d             w        gh             c
w h en h e s ai ev en Tai an m i t be p rote tedb M D S.   y

TH E C H IN E SE D E SIRE OR W IL L ING N E SS
TO TA L K A B OUT M ISSIL E D E F E NSE ISSUE S

                     c     s           t                   i ng
  F or s om e A m eri an ob erv ers , i ap p ears th at B e ji
and W as h i                i                h     n
            ngton are s o frm ly entrenc ed i m utually


                                188
 rre onc l             ti                 gh             e
i c iablep os i ons th at th ere m i t s eem to b no h op e
 or         ati               ti      c
f negoti on ofa p os i v e out om e or any oth er f         orm of
res oluti  on. Yet Sh a, th en h ead of th e arm s c        ontrol
  ep                       nes          n
d artm ent ofth e C h i e M F A ,i M arc 2     h 001 agreedto
                                 w     d              if
talks on NM D th at h eh op ed oul “narrow . . . dferenc s ,   e ”
               om         s
andh e w elc edA s s i tant Sec      retary ofState Jam es K elly
       i ng n                      s ep
to B e ji i M ay . In K elly ’ d arture s tatem ent af         ter
                      d
th os e talks ,h e s ai h e h adexp lai                        c
                                       nedth e ov erall A m eri an
s trategy and th at th ere w as agreem ent to a c            nui
                                                        onti ng
  i
dalogue.

      ng                     c
B eiji W ants B oth E conom i Progres s
andD eterrence.

                     s                  y
     A lth ough th i s tatem ent b K elly m ay h av e h ad an
      ers
und tand                   m s c l
                ably op ti i ti ti t, th ere are oth er p os i v e  ti
   gns        s                     na s           y
s i . A s i w ell know n,C h i i alread tes ti a m od       ng      ern
                    1,            e ts s          e
IC B M ,th eD F 3 to rep lac i ob oles c nt D F 5 A f e b      orc , ut
    i ng oes not w ant to exp end th e res ourc s to b l
B e ji d                                                     e      uid
        red           s
h und s of m i s iles (                               om
                                enough to ov erc e any N M D
      s oned or to greatly i p rov ei m i s i e to m ake th em
env i i        )                m          ts     s ls
                  l
les s v ulnerab e to i           e                ed
                          nterc p t. A s allud to p rev i l , aous y
            b       nes        c ali            s s
res p onsi le C h i e s p e i s t on th i i s ue h as s ugges ted
th at B eiji           gh
               ng m i t be able to tolerate th e 10 N M D
i        e
 nterc p tors recently m enti                 y          eld ut
                                     oned b Rum s f , b th at
     na oul not
C h i c d tolerate2 0 i                    e          s ls      c i
                                5 nterc p tor m i s i e . A c ordng
          nes           e
to C h i e s ourc s , w h en K elly m et Sh a, Sh a dd not        i
 ndc                 i            om          s
i i ate a readnes s to c p rom i e s o f h ow ev er, i ar;              f
     na’ ore nteres t i res p e ted“to s om e extent, C h i
Ch i s c i                   s        c                         ”    na
         e lexi le, c i                    s
m ay b f b ac ordng to th i w ell-i orm ed s e uri   nf           c ty
     c ali
s p e i s t. C h i       t                    ,
                   na, i w as s ugges ted w ants b             c
                                                          oth e onom i  c
  ev               unf             y
d elop m ent [ ettered b a need f a large nuc e   or                l ar
  ui d
b l up ] and to m ai             n
                            ntai a d                      s    c
                                         eterrent. Th i s p e ulati e v
  d i out              b       nes om             s s e nl
ti bt ab p os s i le C h i ec p rom i ei c rtai y not a
b                   ut t oes        lec t
  reakth rough ,b i d ref t,i s eem s ,a d i by C h i    es re       na
        k        f
to tal andofers W as h i                                ati
                               ngton a bit ofnegoti ng room .
                 th               e      n    na       c ul
   Th e talks w i K elly w ere v i w edi C h i as s uc es s f
   y n                                 s    urth er talks . Th e
onl i th at th ey h eldout th e p rom i e off


                                 189
     nes
C h i ew ere ap p arently unh ap p y at th elev elofs eni ty —ori
         s         c
an as s i tant s e retary rath er th an th e d             c
                                                 eputy s e retary of
                    s ted
s tate w h o h adv i i oth er A s i c            e andA us trali
                                      an ountri s (                 a)
                       nc ud
on th e tour th at i l edK elly . It w as noted th at B us h
    m ni         on           or                         a
ad i s trati v ery s eni p eop le talk to Rus s i andoth er
c        e        i         i         m ni        on; ut
  ountri s ,as ddth e C l nton ad i s trati b th at th ere
       e n,          d y 001,no suc talks w i C h i A n
h adb e as ofm i -Jul 2                     h          th      na.
arm s c              c ali
         ontrol s p e i s t p oi              l
                                ntedout b untly th at B us h h as
                                      d            s l ef
p ers onally s p oken to oth er p res i ents on m i s i ed ense( y  b
               n                           ) ut
p h oneandi pers on,h ev olunteered,b h eh ad             not,to th at
     nt,
p oi s p oken to Ji                          c
                        ang on th at top i . Yet Pow ell w as i      n
    i ng n
B e ji i late July , h e rep orted th at, alth ough m i s i      s le
  ef
d ense w as a m ajor agend i                   or s
                                    a tem f h i s es s i w i on     th
      i       ni
F ore gn M i s ter Tang Ji                          en
                              axuan,th ereh adb e no i ep th n-d
  i us on                s le ef
ds c s i about m i s i d ense. Th e C h i e h ad onlynes
“li tenedandres p ond w i a ques ti or tw o.”15
   s                       ed th              on

Ch i              i             s
    nes e Sugges t ons about M i s ile-D efense Talk s
   t
w i h th e UnitedStates .

                            nes         n                  ei
    In any ev ent,th e C h i e w ere,i th e w eeks p rec dng
          c
th e exp e ted B us h -Ji         tob r
                          ang Oc e m eeti           ndc ng
                                               ng, i i ati a
      i                        ng
readnes s to talk andm aki s ugges ti       ons about h ow th at
   gh       ed                                 c              t n
m i t p roc e . Th ey now h av e th e p ros p e t ofa sum m i i
  002                     c
2 , and th e p ros p e t th at Si    no-U.S. relati ons m ay b   e
     h m         ov
m uc i p rov ed er early 2     001. Th e arm s c           c ali
                                                ontrols p e i s t
 n     i ng
i B e ji exp lai                      c                  ers
                   nedw h at A m eri an s s h ouldund tand
bfe ore th e Uni                  ks         na
                 ted States tal to C h i on th e m i s i     s le
  ef      s              d            c
d ense i s ue. H e s ai th at A m eri ans needto und tanders
m ore f                 nes     i i al tuati
        ully th e C h i e p ol t c s i        on. Ji ang h as to
c            th
 ontend w i p res s ure f              lc      ni
                             rom p ubi op i on. H e h as to
c i e th e C h i e p eop le andth e C h i e m eda16 th at
 onv nc           nes                         nes       i
         ted          s
th e Uni States i not to b f    e eared .
                                n ev        ng
   H e th en sugges ted th at, i d elop i an agend f        a or
        ts m            or   na
talks ,i i i p ortant f C h i to know w h at f               s le
                                                  orm ofm i s i
 ef
d ense th e Uni    ted States c                  e aus
                               ontem p lates b c e m i s i   s le
 ef                   n    na
d enses are s een i C h i as a f      orm of U.S. h egem ony .
                                             s ls
N ext, talks s h ouldturn to th e th reat m i s i e p os e to th e


                                19 0
    ted                     na
Uni States andto C h i andRus s i Op ti   a.      ons oth er th an
   s l ef                  oul        uc
m i s i e d enses th at c d red e th e th reat s h ould b        e
  i us     ,
ds c s ed as w ell as op ti        th      c           s
                            ons w i res p e t to th ei s ue ofth e
A B M Treaty .17 Th en,op ti      or s l ef
                             ons f m i s i ed ense s y s tem s to
  e ep                  e p
b d loy edw ould b a p rop ri               i us     .
                                    ately ds c s ed H e ad ed d
        n         nes    e             s
th at,i th e C h i e v i w ,th ere i now no real th reat th at
w arrants a nati          s l ef
                  onal m i s i e d ense.
       e      y c           s aref
    V i w edc ni ally ,th i c              d                 or
                                    ully lai out p rop os al f an
        a l us
agend i l trates th at w h at C h i          n         e
                                        na, i th e v i w of th i  s
       nf            c ali n       i ng,             o s orc
w ell-i orm eds p e i s t i B e ji w ants to d i f e th e
     ted             es ri e       onc p n
Uni States to d c b th ec e t i atleas t s om ed l            etai,
talk ab  out op ti                    s le ef            op
                  ons oth er th an m i s i d ense to c e w i     th
th e th reat,andth en argue th at nati            s le ef
                                          onal m i s i d ense i   s
   i           ed
ne th er need nor ap p rop ri                       and ng
                                  ate andth at ab oni th e
                s
A B M Treaty i unw i e. s
     A n oth er interlocutor sugges tedth at th e Uni       tedStates
           na             e n                 h
andC h i s h ould b gi now to exc ange v i w s at oth ere
                       or                             i
th an th e v ery s eni lev el, th at an early dv ers e dalogue i
           e e ii                 d         t s m
w ould b b nefcal. H e s ai th at i i i p ortant to fnda         i
             i us      s l ef            s            ous y
w ay to ds c s m i s i e d ense i s ues s eri l at s eni             or
            xp                     n
lev els , e ert lev els , and i Trac 2 (    k      nongov ernm ental
  h                          h       fcal
c annels ) or oth er suc unofi i v enues . H i reas oni  s          ng
               f
w as th at, i th e Uni                     ep          s l ef
                           ted States d loy s m i s i e d enses ,
     na                    nc                    e
C h i w ouldh av e to i reas e th enum b r andquali ofi       ty     ts
     l ar orc s
nuc e f e . Th e Uni                                 d
                               ted States s h oul us e all th es e
   i                  ti s              e       na
dv ers e op p ortuni e to p ers uad C h i th at N M D i not      s
i        ed
 ntend agai       nst C h i      Th s             on y
                           na. [ i s ugges ti b a s om ew h at
      or                       fc
s eni PL A res erv e of i er at a s trategi i s ti     c n tute i     s
                   m     l e aus
notew orth y p ri ari y b c e h e w as th e only s p e i s t    c ali
                                ous y
w h o s eem edto take s eri l th e Uni                             ti
                                                 tedStates p os i on
          s l ef                       m
th at m i s i ed enses are not ulti ately i              ed      e
                                                   ntend to b able
     ef          na’
to d eat C h i s IC B M f e    orc .]

           na                n   s
D oes C h i W ant To Sh are i M i s ile D efense?

            s                   c             by f ng
    On th ei s ue ofth e A m eri an s p os s i l oferi to s h are
   s l ef              h          th
m i s i e d ense tec nology w i C h i        na, th ere w ere tw o
  i           e
dv ergent v i w s : A n arm s c               c ali          i ng
                                ontrol s p e i s t at a B e ji

                                19 1
insti   tute op i               na
                 ned th at C h i m ay , c  ontrary to p rev i  ous
       ti      e nteres tedi h av i th e Uni
p os i ons , b i            n        ng          tedStates s h are
   s l ef             h           th     na.
m i s i e d ens e tec nology w i C h i C h i i c ena s onc rned
th at th e Uni                         t           nes
                tedStates m ay reac to a C h i e attac on     k
     w       th    i      ke,      th
Tai an w i a frs t s tri and at th eUni States c dted         oul
          ef          nes
th en d eat a C h i e retali                 ke th ts
                                  atory s tri w i i m i s i   s le
  ef                            d            i
d enses . H e rus h edto ad th at h e dd not c            d
                                                       onsi er th e
   e       o     s c ut            h           c     e
s c nari reali ti ,b th at suc th eoreti al s c nari w ereos
           f
th e s tuf ofarm s c                  c nki
                     ontrol s trategi th i ng.
                    e          f       y     i l an    c ali
    Th e oth er v i w w as oferedb a c v ii s p e i s t and
 orm       i               i     w th                  i
f er dp lom at as s oc ated i th eState C ounc l. C h i e      nes
  fc als          d nk                    ted        s
ofi i ,h es ai ,th i th at th eUni States i not i l ned     nci
              s l -d ense tech nol
to s h are m i s i e ef                       th    na       ei v
                                      ogy w i C h i but b l e e
th e Uni                s         i
          tedStates i m ore l kely to s h are th at tec nolh    ogy
   th          a.                              ,
w i Rus s i M oreov er, h e as s erted th e exam p les of
  i          th
ds as ter w i m i             h
                    litary tec nology transf f ers rom th eUni  ted
          n          ter
States i 19 89 ,af ev ents at Ti                         ,
                                      ananm en Square s erv e as
            or      nes
a les s on f C h i e w h o m i t c           d
                                  gh onsi er a p rogram ofU.S.
        er m                 h             ter
transf ofi p ortant tec nology . A f m ore th an a d c e     e ad ,
th e Ti                   ti            ll n      e     na
         ananm en sanc ons are s ti i plac . C h i cannot
  s oop          on th             ted
ri k c erati w i th eUni States ,h es tatedf              latly and
   th        ri
w i out ac m ony .

     na
C h i W ants To B e H eard.

     A n arm s c             c ali          s urrently w orki on
                 ontrol s p e i s t w h o i c                 ng
      i               c             na              t
p rec s ely th e top i ofh ow C h i s h ouldreac to th e B us h
   m ni         on      s le ef           s
ad i s trati m i s i d en s e i s ues m ad a h op ef  e          ul
   s        on.         d             ti
ob erv ati H e s ai th at,p rop i ous ly ,th ere h av e b e noen
 i       e i ons y et b th e Uni States on m i s i e d ense.
fnal d c s i             y         ted               s l ef
          c or            e             s n fc
H e exp e ts [ m ay b h op es andi ,i efe t,m aki a p lea  ng
           c                                   ted
to A m eri ans to w h om h e talks ]th e Uni States to talk to
     na                          na th         ai c
C h i andnot p res ent C h i w i a f t ac om p l on th e    i
 s         s           ,       d     nti       or        c
i s ue. Iti not good h es ai p lai v ely ,f A m eri ans to s ay
          s l ef               l e ep oy
th at m i s i e d ens es w i l b d l ed regard s of th eles
v iew s of oth ers , “n o m atter w h at.” A s en i an d    or
w ell-c      c      i                  gi        nk
        onne tedfgure at a p res ti ous th i tank s um m ed
         na’       ti                               ng
up C h i s reac on to th e B us h p rogram s ay i th at C h i    na


                              19 2
                            s l ef            s
w ants to talk m ore on m i s i ed ensei s ues andw ants th e
     ted                          n ts     i y orm
Uni States to leav eroom i i p ol c f ulati f th e       on or
     ti
legi m ate c eonc rns of C h i   na. C h i              nd ,
                                           na, h e rem i ed h as
         ut       ti            l ar orc s
s m all b “legi m ate” nuc e f e . If M D S w orks and
        orc s              i ed          s      na    o?
th es e f e are neutral z ,w h at i C h i to d h e as ked       ,
                      c            ng
ap p arently rh etori ally ,s eem i to know th at th ere w oul d
  e
b no ans w er f        om ng.
                 orth c i

Nurture th e G oodor A ttack th e B ad?

          es                e an
     Prof s or Yang Ji m i at th e Sh angh ai I ti     ns tute f  or
Internati               is
            onal Stude us ed th e analogy of W es tern and
     nes        ii       n        ni    s e
C h i em edc nes i exp lai ng h i v i w ofh ow B e ji and i ng
W as h i                  h        s l ef       s
         ngton ap p roac th em i s i ed ensei s ueand erootth
      lm                          s le      ks          d
p rob e ofth e th reat ofm i s i attac . H e s ai W es tern
      ii s i           s l ef         n
m edc nei l kem i s i ed ensei th at i v i   t gorous ly attac    ks
       c fc       c               lm   onc ntrati p otent,e en
a s p e i i as p e t ofth e p rob e ,c e           ng           v
d                   i ati                    e n om
  angerous ,m edc on or th erap y on a c rtai c p onent of
th e s i     on                    e     uc ng
        tuati th at s eem s to b p rod i th e s y m p tom s . B y
c                 nes         ii
 ontras t, C h i e m edc ne m ore b               ly
                                            road attem p ts to
       s            ti         c
nouri h th e p os i v e as p e ts ofa s i     on
                                         tuati to c   reate s tead y
 m                             om
i p rov em ents th at ov erc eor res olv eth enarrow p rob e    lm
                 ts
andp rev ent i rec      urrenc .e

         s
Prognos i .

                   e    te l ar             e
     It w as m ad qui c e th at a c ntral th em e of any
  i us ons th e Uni
ds c s i                                              th
                        ted States m ay h av e w i C h i on   na
    s l ef             l eh          nes onv c on
m i s i ed enses w i l b t e C h i ec i ti or as s erti          on
                                          ,          f
th at s u ch a p rotectiv e s h ield ev en i s ucces s f         ul
    h
tec nol c ogi ally andm i              ll l                    h ng
                          litarily ,w i i ls erv e th eov erarc i
   c ty nteres ts ofth e Uni States ,i alli s and ri nd ,
s e uri i                        ted          ts     e      f e s
and C h i  na. If W as h i            s
                           ngton w i h es to res p ond to th at
  ri c s             y
c ti i m ,th erep l w ould robp            e n th
                                    ably b gi w i an argum ent
th at th e Uni                an i
                tedStates c fnda w ay to h av e ad           equate
    s l ef              ,                 m ,m
m i s i e d enses and at th e s am e ti e i p rov e or s us tai   n
its bilateral an d m u ltilateral relation s h ip s an d
  em                   t l          e            c
d onstrate th at i w i l not b h egem oni . Th at argum ent
w ould alm os t certai          all
                         nly f on d                     e aus
                                          eaf ears , b c e th e


                               19 3
     nes          onv nc d                         s l ef
C h i e h av e c i e th em s elv es th at m i s i e d enses
       als    c ty ” ounterp rod ti e andev en ob tac e
are “f e s e uri , c                  uc v ,              s     ls
            ng nternati
to res olv i i                    c ty       lm               nes
                          onal s e uri p rob e s ; m any C h i e
          s                onv nc d
s trategi ts h av e als o c i e th em s elv es th at th e Uni  ted
States i c  n reas i           ts n        n          oni
                     ngly ac i an i terv en ti s t an d
            c as on.
h egem oni f h i
                      t                 f es redb W as h i
     N oneth eles s ,i ap p ears th at,i d i        y       ngton,
          s                c          ng         ngf
th ere i a real p ros p e t ofh av i m eani ul ds c s i  i us ons
    th      na        s le ef           e aus
w i C h i on m i s i d enses b c e B e ji i s endngi ng s      i
       l ar gnal th at i i w i ng to talk— or at th ev ery leas t
th ec e s i               t s lli
        t            e        .      l e et               e e
th at i w ants to b h eard It w i l b l f to th e p ati nc and
     l
s ki l ofth e negoti                                i tab e ac
                      ators andto oth er unp redc l f tors
                       or                    ers      i
w h eth er av enues f p rogres s andund tandng w i l op en  l
  uri                 f               ,               oth d
d ng th e talks ,i th ey areh eld or w h eth er b s i es w i l   l
   m        og ow      n     i eep
s i p ly b d n i th e r d ly ruttedtrac — or m ay b  ks          e
                                          c e
th ey s h ouldbe term ed“p res et traje tori s .”

E N D NOTE S - C H A PTE R 6
                          t s
      1. A lth ough i i n ot ap p rop ri                           on
                                                ate to m enti th e i dv i ual n i d
 n                                                     on
i terlocutors , s p okes m en , an d ques ti ers , th e organ i ati             z ons
                  i        i us ons nc ud : n i ng,
rep res ented n th eds c s i i l ed i B e ji th eD i i i ofA rm s        v s on
                     c ty           is               na       t
C ontrol andSe uri Stude at th e C h i Insti ute ofC ontem p orary
Internati      onal Relati        C
                           ons ( IC I ,th e I ti
                                        R)                  or           gi
                                                 ns tute f Strate cStude at       is
th e PL A N ati     onal D ef              v    ty h          h
                                ense Uni ers i , t e Sc ool of Internati           onal
        is          c
Stude A m eri an Stude C e       is                  i ng        v     t
                                        nter at B e ji Uni ers i y , andth e th e
                               v
In s titute of W orld D e elop m ent of th e State C ouncl of th e PRC,i
                         c          is           nes       ad m
In s titute ofA m eri an Stude ofth eC h i eA c e y ofSocal Sc e e          i    i nc s
 C         ; n           i
( A SS) i H arbn, th e H e l          i ongji             nc al      ad
                                             ang Prov i i A c em y of Soc al          i
    i nc s; n
Sc e e i Sh angh ai,th eSh angh aiI             nstitutef Ior nternati     onalStude  is
 SI S)                         t     or             an       is
( I , Sh angh ai Insti ute f E as t A s i Stude , andth e Sh angh ai
            or m
C enter f Ri Pac Strategi a Internatic nd                           i     n
                                                       onal Studes ; i H angz ou,  h
  h ji            ad               i      i nc ; n
Z e ang A c em y of Soc al Sc e e i G uangz ou, C enter f A s ih                or     a
      ii           is C
Pacfc Stude ( A PS) and Ins titute of South e t A s i Stude of   as       a       is
  h                   v
Z ongsh an Uni ers i ,Insti ty                                   an
                                      tute ofSouth eas t A si Stude at Ji  is       nan
      v       ty
Uni ers i ,andth eIn s titute ofInternati                       is
                                                    onal Stude ofth eG uangz ou     h
    a em               i      i nc s n am
A c d y ofSocal Sc e e ; i Xi en, I ti                 ns tute ofSouth east A s i n   a
        is         am           v            dti       l
Stude ofXi en Uni ers ity . A d i onal y , th e top i w as ds c s e   c        i us d
            v                           ay
exten s i ely at th e th ree- d 2001 H on g K ong C on v enti                     on of
                on           is                   y
In ternati al Stud e s p ons ored b th e In ternati al Stud e            on           is
        i on ISA                        v    ty
A s s oc ati ( )andth e Uni ers i ofH ong K ong 2 -2 July .         6 8



                                        19 4
        .     re                            c               nes
      2 Th e w as m ore th an rh etori to th e C h i e as s erti th at,  on
  es te f            y                m ni      on,
d p i afronts b th eB us h ad i s trati C h i w ould    na         turn th eoth er
  h e                  e       nes     fcal            e n
c e k. F or exam p l , C h i e of i i s announc di early A ugus t 2           001
            na         b     6       ng 7
th at C h i w ould uy 3 B oei 73 jetline th at c   rs             b
                                                              ould ew orth up to
  2 i l on. M art n F a kler, “C h i A i nes to B uy B oei Jets,
$ b li                i     c             na rli                        ng       ”
                          re
A s soc ated Pre w i rep ort, A u gust 9 , 2
         i         ss                                 001. I cn ontras t to th i s
            e            na          n
announc m ent, C h i h as i th e p as t m ad dc s i    e e i ons not to b      uy
          c    om        i      rc t        em
A m eri an c m erc al ai raf to d ons trate i annoy anc w i  ts            e th
W ash i         s    ti
          ngton’ ac on s on v ari     ous m atters. C h i qui kly ofered i s
                                                         na      c       f      t
                                                      e 001 terrori t attac .
s u p p ort ofth e U.S. res p onse to th e Sep tem b r 2              s        ks
     s i
Th i l kely s tem m edf    rom b          esi
                                   oth a d re to enh anc b l              l ons
                                                            e iateral re ati ,
                                   ks,        n                  or
expres s outrage at th e attac andgai U.S. s u p p ort ( at leas t m ore
      ers      i             e        e
und tandng andacc p tanc ofC h i s p rob s w i terrori m i
                                             na’        lem      th         s   n
    nji                  t                                   an
Xi ang— w h ere i h as long w arned of th e d gers of Is lam i                   c
 und
f am entali m )   s .

      .   a s
     3 “Ji ng’ Res p onses to Ques ti       m ttedPri to Interv i w ,
                                     ons Sub i       or          e ”
N e York Ti e A ugus t 10,2
   w         m s,              001.

         m              na’ ang Preoc up i d w i Tai an— U.S.
   4 Jere y Page, “C h i s Ji         c e        th w
       ” uters w i rep ort,B e ji A ugus t 9 ,2
Senator, Re       re          i ng,            001.

             a s
      5 . “Ji ng’ Res p onses to Ques tions Sub i           or
                                                 m ttedPri to Interv i w , e ”
N e York Ti e , A u gust 10, 2
    w             m s                001. Ji                   n
                                              ang as s erted i th e w ri   tten
                                           on               un
res p onse to a N e York Ti e ques ti th at th e F al G ong ddnot
                      w        m s                                       i
              a i               ous                na.    ef i
h av eth ec p ac ty to beas eri th reat to C h i In d endng h i h arsh s
 rac ow             oc d                        un
c kd n,h ef us e on th eh arm th at F al G ong d to i f    oes     ts ollow ers
            ne       i
andC h i s e s ocety . Th e tone andi           ty
                                         nten s i ofth e res p onse tend to s
 onfrm        es te        ee v          s
c i , d p i th e df n s i e w ord to th e c          ontrary , th at Jiang i ,s
 nd e , rrati
i e di                  earf
                onally f ulofth ep ow er ofth eF alun G ong organi ati  z on.
             l cs s             ei f        s      c    am     i s
It als o refe t h i ap p arentb l e th ath i anti ultc p a gn i w orki       ng,
       ng       e re f e t                    ne                 onv nc d
h av i th ed s i de f c,s o th at th eC h i s e p eop le arec i e th e
                s        l ult      oes
F alun G ong i an ev i c th at d h arm ands h ouldb e i i    e l m natedb      y
gov e              ti
       rnm ent ac on.

               b v ati            m s l ee                     m     ng
    6 . Th e ab re i on M D S ( i s i e d f n s e s y s tem , i ply i a
       ng y               m ni       on
m ergi b th e B us h ad i s trati of v ari                          s ls
                                                ous elem ents of m i s i e
 ef n                    d          d    d          c on) s h ould not b
d e s es s o as to p rov i e lay ere , w i e p rote ti                    e
 onf d th              b
c us e w i th e ab rev iation G M D S (               -b d d ourse
                                              ground as e m i -c
 ef nse s e ent) rough ly s y nony m ous w i th e earli r term N M D —
d e        gm     ,                          th          e
     ki     ow   C         ter oos                 ef
knoc ng d n I B M s af b t ph as e andb ore re-entry ,rough l             y
           , e ng                                       nc     c
put. Som e s e i th e letters G M D S h av e as s um edi orre tly th at i t
            al s le ef nse s y s tem .
m eant glob m i s i d e

           s ons are askedab
    7. Que ti                              na s onc rnedab
                             out w h y C h i i c e          out U.S.
       f t oes
N M D i i d n ot i              h           s ls       nst
                   ntendto launc th os e m i s i e agai U.S. targets .


                                      19 5
     nes     gh                       on              ted
C h i e m i t as k th e s am e ques ti about th e Uni States andi s   t
IC B M arse                    c ns                          nes   o:
            nal. M os t A m eri a w ouldansw er as th e C h i ed W e
h av eno i      i           ki
          ntent on ofattac ng any c            th           s les, ut
                                     ountry w i nuclear m i s i b w e
 eel
f w e m us t m ai      n
                  ntai a d            orc .
                             eterrent f e

    8. Joh n Pom f          i ng                    s          ens ,
                   ret, “B e ji E as es Stand on M i s ile D ef e ”
W ash i          ,     h
       ngton Post M arc 15 ,2  000,p. A 21.

            v n                                     v     om          f d
     9 . G i e th e toneofth es e argum ents andp ri ate c m ents ofere
   te               st     ks t                              m
af r th e terrori attac , i s eem s only a m atter of ti e b f    e ore th e
     nes
C h i e w il ge                         e      i                    i
               l, ntly or h ars h ly — d p endng on th e s tate of blateral
relati                m ,                   s l s ef nses w ouldnot h av e
        ons at th e ti e sugges t th at m i s i e d e
                        e           ks
s top p edth e Sep tem b r 11 attac .

            th          v                 ie     i -f
     10. W i th e ad ent ofth e m ob l ,sol d ueledD ongf              1
                                                                 eng 3 IC B M ,
            i                  cp
and es p ecally th e anti i ated longer-range f         ollow -on v ersi on, th e
p rob               v blt           nes
     lem ofsurv i a i i y ofC h i e IC B M s (         nst i          ke
                                                   agai a frst s tri )w oul    d
           e
s eem to b ap p re i                 d     ji         eel equately c i ent
                     c ably les s ene . B ei ng m ay f ad               onfd
                            ts
th at at leas t s om e of i IC B M ars e                     v f
                                            nal w oulds urv i e i th ey are not
pi             i
   nnedto a fxed(                 aby              ati
                       andprob l know n)loc on. Us e ofm ob l d c s   i e e oy
  oul ,
c d ofc    ours e,f            om i ate U.S. targeti
                     urth er c p l c                   ng.

    11. F or a d etailed exam i    on       na’    jec on     al s c
                               nati of C h i s ob ti to b l i ti
   s l ee          or                  c ntly p ubi h e M i h ael D .
m i s i e d f nse f Jap an, see th e re e          ls d    c
      ne t
Sw ai , e al., Jap an and B alli t c M i s ie D e e , RA N D , Santa
                                  s i   s l      f nse
      c 001,p p . 79 -83
M oni a,2               .

        .
     12 Neith er A egi     p         p                 s les
                      s-equi p edsh i s n or PA C -3m i s i h av e y etbeen
          d y         ted       s or        er
ap p rov e b th e Uni State f transf to Tai an.      w

       .             rati        v               d nt     n    -b an
     13 Th e D em oc cProgres s i e Party ofPres i e C h e Sh ui i
          ii          en                 nd      enc
h adtradt onally b e know n as a p ro-i ep end e party , alth ough
     n              rac d     onc p uri       s m    n fc
C h e h as n ot em b e th at c e td ng h i ti e i of i e.

                      b          eld n       ow or     ”
     14 . V ernon L oe ,“Rum s f i M os c f Talks , W as h i ngton Post,
             , 001, p . A 9 . Rum s f a know led , as re ortedi th i
A u gus t 13 2                       eld c         ged    p       n   s
     ce         an om
arti l , Rus s i c p lai                   y i        ers          nd
                             nts th at th e ddnot und tandth e ki of
   ssi e
m i l s y stem env i i          y              m ni    on
                       s onedb th e B us h ad i s trati andw as quote d
         ng, s                 l,           re ng     ep    e aus
as s ay i “It’ n ot know ab e w h at w e’ goi to d loy ,b c e w e’   re
 n          ng
i a tes ti m od .” e

                                          ri                onf nc    l y
    15 . U.S. State D ep artm ent tran s c p t ofa p res s c ere e h e db
                   9
Pow ell on July 2 , 2                      ri           nti      c
                         001. Th e trans c p t w as e tled “Se . Pow ell
Outli                   si
     nes Res ults ofV i t to A si        ii
                                 a-PacfcRe on.” gi

                d e     s re i iiy    i y         ni       nd
     16 . H e re uc dh i c d b l t a b t b exp lai ng h ow i ep endent
th e C h i         i       e om
          nese m eda h adb c e.

                                     19 6
              s
     17. Th i arm s c              c ali     s         nt
                       ontrol s p e i s t rai ed a p oi th at no one els e
             .         d
m entioned H e s ai th at, rath er th an talk about ab                   ng
                                                                 rogati or
      i y ng               aty     d fed
m odf i th eA B M Tre ,uni enti i E urop eans are sugges t ng th at   i
 t         b
i w ould ep ref                    m
                erableto try to i p os es om eb             on           ci
                                                 roadv ers i ofres tri t ons
       s les,      b             ng m l                                es ri e
on m i s i p os s i ly s om eth i s i iar to M TC R. H ew ent on to d c b
 t                           i
i rath er v aguely as an “ nternati    onal c            s ls           d
                                             ourt” on m i s i e . Th e i ea,it
          ,       e            ls
s eem ed w ouldb th e estab i h m ent ofan i   nternati        od       m
                                                        onalb y to i p ose
       c ons or p roh i ii
res tri ti                                ev                   ep
                        b t ons on th e d elop m ent and d loy m ent of
    ssi e        onc p       rud l
m i l s. Th e c e t, c e y p ut, w as th at, rath er th an b l i       uidng
    ssi e e en         s ls            e
m i l d f s es ,m i s ie w ouldb outlaw e .     d




                                    19 7
                       C H A PTE R 7



  E A ST A SIA N R E A C TIONS TO U.S. M ISSIL E
D E F E NSE : TORN B E TW E E N TA C IT SUPPORT
            A N D OV E R T OPPOSITION

                        Taeh o K im



        i                     e
    In l gh t ofth e Sep tem b r 11,2             s      ks
                                      001,terrori t attac on
          ted                   , t s nc      ngl e n
th e Uni States h om eland i i i reas i y c rtai th at
                          m ni      on’ ni al i y       ori e
th eG eorgeW . B us h ad i s trati s i ti p ol c p ri ti s
an d f             s on
        uture v i i s w ill go th rough a reap p rai al,   s
      jus             rec i        on. s
read tm ent,and onfrm ati Iti als o trueth at w ar i           n
   gh      s                   th
A f ani tan, togeth er w i th e broad i       er nternati  onal
an ti          s     f                  fc
      terrori t ef orts , h as s ign i i an tly altered th e
   m ni         on’        ng efni on
ad i s trati s w orki d i ti ofi f e s andfts ri nd          oes
                    —           or      m   e ng.
aroundth e w orld at leas t f th e ti eb i Th ere i als os
        oub
littled t th at anti          s     l       n      ori
                       terrori m w i lrem ai a p ri ty agend   a
 n uture U.S. f i pol c .
i f               ore gn     iy
        s         i                         v    ts  e       gi
    It i equally l kely ,h ow ev er,th at gi en i rec nt ori n
an d its v ary in g d                         fc
                        egrees of s ign i i an ce to oth er
gov ernm ents , th e anti         s           a    l e
                          terrori m agend w i l b s ev erely
c           b        om       ng          ori e       ud
 ontes ted y oth er c p elli U.S. p ri ti s andb getary
 onc rns th at h av e b e p ut on h old d ng th e w ar i
c e                      en                    uri             n
   gh     s                     d y s ni al i y          ori e
A f ani tan. Th e B us h p res i enc ’ i ti p ol c p ri ti s
andf           s ons, alb i at a red e s cale anda s low er
      uture v i i         et           uc d
    e      l e ac
p ac , w i l b b k on th e f  ront b urner s ooner rath er th an
later.
         ng rom f
    Rangi f           uture nati         c ty
                                 onal s e uri th reats to th e
Uni  tedStates to th e f              bl t           onfi t n
                        uture p os s i ii y ofarm edc l c i
internati         i c                  ons p     th   h
         onal p ol ti s to U.S. relati h i s w i suc m ajor
                     a,
p ow ers as R u s s i C h i                            f ully
                            na, and Jap an , th ey — i f
 m           —
i p lem ented w ouldh av e c ti                      ep
                                ons tuteda s h arp d arture


                             19 9
f                    li       i          d y              c
 rom th os eofth eW i l am C l nton pres i enc . In p arti ular,
       m ni       on
th e ad i s trati strongly i         ed
                                ntend to not only s las h th e
  z      ts    l ar
s i e ofi n uc e ars enal b als o d elop b
                              ut       ev              ef
                                                 oth d ensi ev
       f    v     s le
andofensi e m i s i s y s tem s .
               s l ef          M           s                e
    Th us , m i s i e d ense ( D ) s tand tall as a p rem i r
  ef       s      n             m ni       on’
d ensei s uei th e B us h ad i s trati s larger “m i    litary
        orm
transf ati             th       as s      ef
                on” w i th e b i of d ense p lanni nowng
  e ng      f
b i s h i tedto a f            ap b l t as ”           h rom
                       uture “c a i i y -b ed ap p roac f
                                     1
th e p rev i              as ”
            ous “th reat-b ed one. One ofth e key ques ti  ons
 or             iy           s
f U.S. p ol c m akers i h ow to m es h A m eri a’ M Dc s
               th
p rogram w i E as t A s i          c ty            n
                             an s e uri — now i th e larger
context ofi   nternati onal anti       s    f
                                terrori t eforts .
            s h                           n i                 i c
    In th i c ap ter, I argue th at i l gh t of th e p ol ti al
        ti ti s       h       c     h
s en s i v i e , tec nologi al c allenges , and b getary  ud
c          nts       i       th
  onstrai as s oc atedw i U.S. M D ,as w ell as th e dv ers ei
  ef
d enserequi                                    an               s
                 rem ents ofm ajor E as t A s i states ,th ere i no
    h      ng              f            z i
suc th i as a uni orm , “one-s i e-fts -all” ap p roac i       h n
  oup i            c          th             an c ty
c l ng A m eri an M D w i E as t A s i se uri ,andth at
                                s     nc                     e
th os e s tates , as th e M D i s ue i h es tow ard th e c ntral
      en       i row ed c ty                 a,
p lac i th e r c d s e uri agend are h i ly l kely to  gh  i
take a bf i urcated        p     z p ti           th
                     and olari ed os i on w i s om edferent if
         e              es        s e                i
nuanc s and s h ad — th at i , b tw een tac t s u p p ort and
                ti
ov ert op p os i on.
                        or
    A t p res ent and f th e f   ores eeable f         ,
                                                 uture no s i    ngle
regi           c ty s                                 f
      onal s e uri i s ue s eem s m ore m ulti aceted and
p otenti        i s v                      h                   e
         ally dv i i e th an M D . It touc es up on a v ari ty of
 s
i s ue areas rangi fng rom regi               ii y
                                  onal s tab l t ,p ow er b   alanc e
am ong m ajor s tates ,andarm s c                        anc e
                                    ontrol to U.S. alli e ti s .
         h                    ac
A s s uc , a great m any f tors i                   n     h
                                       nterv ene i eac s tate’      s
 alc
c ulus b f   e ore any ac                ep               th n
                            tual M D d loy m ent w i i th e
     on,      l
regi w h i e an equally great num b r ofc e                    e
                                                  onsequenc s are
                                         ers
p os s ible as w ell. To better un d tan d th e com p lex
 alc
c ulati    ons th e regi                           ac
                          onal s tates m us t f tor i i i   n, t s
   cs            d f              ori z
ne e s ary to i enti y andp ri ti e s om e m ajor v ari        ables
         fc
th at afe t th e d be ate andth e li  kely c                 ti
                                              ours es ofac on b     y
 ndv d
i i i ual regi                               ni
                  onal s tates . A t a m i m um , f     our m ajor
c      d      on
 onsi erati s s tandout:


                               200
   ?        i     m            e
       Th e r p ri ary s ourc s of c              i
                                     urrent and l kely f   uture
                             v     i            n    i c ty
       th reat andth e relati e w e gh t ofM D i th e r s e uri
        alc
       c ulus ;

   ?   Th e ev oluti            om
                       on of d es tic p olitics an d th eir
              ons p       th
       relati h i s w i th e Uni                     nc udng
                                       ted States , i l i an
       as s es s m en t of th e latter’ fs uture role in an d
        om      tm
       c m i ent to regi              c ty
                              onal s e uri ;

   ?   Tech n ological f       eas ibility an d bu d      getary
       c      d
         onsi erati                                       onc
                     ons as th e M D p lan takes a m ore c rete
                 n                  ;
       s h ap e i th e y ears ah ead and  ,

   ?          b       ti    e th        ti              v
       Pos s i le reac ons ( i er p os i v e or negati e) b   y
         i ori               s c ally m ajor p ow ers ,to th e r
       ne gh b ng s tates , e p e i                           i
        e i on       ev           ep
       d c s i to d elop andd loy M D .
     A m ong th e f           i    ac
                   our,th e frs t f tor f           th n
                                            alls w i i th e realm of
            l       i ti
reas onab e p redc on, as i c e  t onc rns geograp h y , f ii am l ar
                           lblt            ef
th reats , and th e av aia i i y of d ense m easures . B oth
                    c
lateral andv erti al p rol f         on        s l
                            i erati ofm i s i eandoth er W M D
    h     ogi s                   e ad
tec nol e ov er th e p as t d c es h av e alm os t i ari l nv      ab y
 nc
i reas edth e needto d               s             c ty
                           eter th i ty p e ofs e uri th reat. Th e
  om       c
d es ti v ari          s ar            om
                 able i f m ore c p lex andm ore unc rtai       e n
              i     ac            nv
th an th e frs t f tor and i olv es m any unknow ns and
                   ow               .
unknow ables d n th e road Th e relati h i w i th e ons p      th
      ted              c
Uni States ,w h i h w ould                      e        as
                                 norm ally b treated s ep arate
f        om
 rom d es ti c   c onsi erati
                         d              s ten an i s ue of c ti al
                                ons, i of             s         ri c
 m            en                       ii s n
i p ortanc i th e v ortex ofp ol t c i Jap an,Tai an,and    w
                                ep                   ng
South K orea,as all th ree d endto a v ary i extent on th e
Uni                  or      i     c ty
      ted States f th e r s e uri . Regardng th e th i i            rd
v ari  able, a th ick c                    h c
                          loud of tec n i al u n certain ties
ov ers h ad                     h tec
             ow th e M D arc i ture e p e i  , s c ally nati      onal
    s l ef           N      ,      l                w
m i s i e d ens e ( M D ) w h i e Jap an, Tai an, andSouth
K orea,th es o-called c           c
                        e onom i p ow erh ous es ,now look p alei    n
       ac        m c         c          c
th ef eofgri e onom i p ros p e ts . Th eregi                    ti
                                                      onal reac ons,
        c       na’                         m
ofw h i h C h i s ap p ears th e m os t i p ortant,are li     kely to
  e xed om i ated andnes teds o th at th ey m ay d y a
b m i ,c p l c             ,                                      ef



                                201
   m          i ti  v    f e      ev                 s ng
s i p le p redc on,e en i rec nt d elop m ents andexi ti
       s
trend are extrap olated .
              i                   ef
    A s bef ts a p rem ier d en s e is s ue in th e B us h
   m ni         on’
ad i s trati s “m i i    l tary tran s f         on,
                                          orm ati ” M D s h av e
        ted                     on th n
attrac enorm ous attenti w i i a s h ort p eri ofti e   od       m
      oth d               ii      e          l h
on b s i es ofth ePacfcOc an. W h i et ere h as not b e         en
                 onf       e      e dngs dted um
a s h ortage ofc erenc p roc e i , e i v ol es ,and
    iy                              gh i       e n
p ol c p ap ers , th ey tend to h i l gh t c rtai as p e ts ofc
                                                             2
              s l ef           TM          /or
th eater m i s i e d ens e ( D ) and N M D only . Th i             s
      h         ri f         s
m uc m ore b e es s ay i no exc p ti                     c
                                       e on. In p arti ular, as
           s
oth er ob erv ers h av e p ointedout, th e d b e ate h as alread   y
 nc           i om     c os
i urred dp l ati c ts p rem aturely : E v en i p rogramf
 eas b l t                 e           y
f i ii y h as y et to b p rov en b rep eatedtes t results ,
m any ob erv ers h av e as s um edth e m os t efe ti e s y s tem .3 I
           s                                    fc v
w ould f   urth er argue th at A m eri a’ cc s urrent ad h oc       ,
         -of          h           n ts
on-and fap p roac to exp lai i M D p rogram ov ers eas i           s
         fc ent                   e         e y
not sufi i andh as y et to b rep lac db a m ore f          requent
        nsti onali ed one th at ai s at ad res s i eac
and i tuti           z                  m          d      ng       h
        s ef
s tate’ d en s e requi                 ts      i c
                          rem ents , i p ol ti al as w ell as
    h c s                 i
tec ni al i s ues , andfnally ,f   uture regi            ii y
                                               onal s tab l t and
           ty
p ros p eri .
         th
     W i th e ab e cov    onsi erati
                               d             n     nd      s h
                                        ons i m i , th i c ap ter
                   gh             h
th row s s om e li t on eac of th e f        our N orth eas t A s i an
                 e ons           ti
p ow ers ’ p erc p ti , reac ons, and l kely f i                ti
                                                      uture ac ons
              s l ef
tow ardm i s i e d ense. It i i             ed       e
                                    s ntend to b a th i p i cnk e e
    gh i     ng        t      c
h i l gh ti s elec as p e ts of th e M D d b                n
                                                   e ate i Jap an,
     w
Tai an, South K orea, and North K orea onl , as C h i sy          na’
       ti         ts i            ti             d
p os i on and i l kely ac ons are ad res s ed i greater    n
  etai y        c V on              M
d lb E ri M c ad and ark Stokes i th i v olum eandn     s
b oth ers .4 A s th e auth or i tec nologi ally uni ti
  y                             s     h       c                 , s
                                                        ni ated th i
  h           l orgo any arc
c ap ter w i lf                             out           d
                              ane talk ab th ew orl ofs c enc   i e
     e       nv                             ti s ut
exc p t to i oketh erelev ant auth ori e ,b w illad res s i   d      n
          ep                    s         c v         c
s om e d th South K orea’ p ers p e ti es , w h i h h av e of      ten
         ted ant attenti It c l es w i an as s es s m ent
attrac s c                  on.       onc ud      th
                 al
ofth e p otenti regi             ons         e
                         onal c equenc s ofth e M D p rogram
                      iy                          gh
and a s et of p ol c p rop os als th at m i t enh anc th e      e
          c
p ros p e ts f c          i          s le ef
                or oup l ng m i s i d en s es and regi           onal
    c ty
s e uri .

                                202
           m
Japan: L i itedRes earch andD ev elop m ent (R&D )
        t                          d    i
C om m i m ent andA lliance C ons i erat on.

              s
     A s an i land nati                s       c     y onc rned
                         on, Jap an i p arti ularl c e
   th       s l h                                s les s c ally
w i a m i s i et reat. Th eNorth K orean m i s i ,e p e i
     i urrently d l ed N od
th e r c             ep oy                  i
                                   ongs, fgure p rom i  nently i n
         s c ty             ng.     le          bl t s
Jap an’ s e uri p lanni W h i th ep os s i ii y i v ery l ,   ow
     na’           al                 ts      i
C h i s p otenti th reat to us e i m edum -range balli ti     s c
    s ls M             n
m i s i e ( RB M s )i v ari   ous c onti       i
                                         ngenc es als o cannot b e
ruledout. F or i         e n
                  nstanc ,i th ec   ontext ofan i nter-K orean or
    ros         t onfi t,                       n
a c s -Strai c l c Jap an w ouldrem ai w orri dabout a e
          al
p otenti or ac             s l h          y
                  tual m i s i e t reat b N orth K orea and    /or
     na
C h i andth e c               os       e ng
                   ollateral c t ofb i a h os t to U.S. F orc s e
Jap an (                         l                   ted
          USF J)as w ell as a c os e ally ofth e Uni States .
          om      ng               ev          s l h
    A s c p elli as th e p erc i ed m i s i e t reat i th e s
  ons d       on
c i erati of alli e m ai anc                   e       f
                                   ntenanc . E v en i Jap an’    s
  e i on       om    t     i ted nt
d c s i to c m i to a l m i joi R&D p rogram on TM D
           i tatedb th eA ugus t 19 9 8 fi t-tes t ofth eN orth
w as p rec p i       y                      l gh
K orean Tae od                          c             or
               p ong-1, th e A m eri an reques t f Jap an’       s
       c p on n                   ac
p arti i ati i M D h arkens b k to th e Strategi D ef  c      ense
    ti v SD                  n        .
Ini ati e ( I)p rogram i 19 83 A s long as Jap an regard         s
 ts     anc         ons p th               ted
i alli erelati h i w i th eUni States as v i al to i      t     ts
nati  onal i          ts i ted          c p on n
            nteres t,i l m i p arti i ati i M D s h ouldb        e
taken as a m easure to s trength en th eU.S.-Jap an alli eianc n
                                            anc on d
th e p os t-C old W ar era. Th us , alli e c s i erati ,      ons
               th            al     s
togeth er w i a p otenti m i s ile th reat, c ti     ons tute a
    m
p ri ary rati          nfuencng Jap an’ dc s i to joi th e
                onale i l      i             s e i on       n
                       c s         n i          th      s
R&D p rogram , w h i h i als o i l ne w i Jap an’ ov erall
          c l           th      ted           n
s trategi tit tow ard e Uni States i th ep os t-C old ar      W
era.
                                  cp        n     nt
     A t p res ent,Jap an p arti i ates i a joi R&D p rogram
on f           h c                                       d N
      our tec ni al areas ofth e N av y Th eater-W i e ( TW )
    s                        u
m i s ile p rogram , b t h as n ot com m i                 ts
                                                    tted i elf to
d elop m ent or d loy m ent ofTM D .5 It c
  ev                  ep                          urrently op erates
  x attali of2 enh anc d
si b         ons      4                   ot v      e C     blt
                                e Patri A d anc d ap a i i y -2
 PA                 i      ts      c        er
( C -2 Plus )fre uni ,w h i h ,und th e 19 75 agreem ent
   th             ted
w i th e Uni States ,are p art ofJap an’ ai ef    s r-d ense role
 or
f U.S. m ii    l tary i nstallations. A s ofth e endof2 001,Jap an

                               203
 s i             qui                      ts orc m
i l kely to ac re PA C -3 as p art ofi f e i p rov em ent
          /or             ed
p lan and an up grad PA C -3C onfgurati   i       on-3s y s tem to
f      unc on                                       h tec
 ully f ti as p art of a lay ered TM D arc i ture. In
   dti
ad i on to th e c   urrent f              l                   p
                             our K ongo-cas s A E G IS-equi p ed
  es                                ti         -D en
d troy ers , th e Jap an M ari m e Self ef s e F orc               e
 JM                      qui          dti          p n
( SD F )p lans to ac re tw o ad i onal s h i s i th e new
    d
M i -term D ef                   2      005 , th
                 ense Program ( 001-2 ) w i th e d c s i   e i on
 i      n 003                                    s
l kely i 2 . F or reas ons relatedto Jap an’ requi      rem ents
     s         h      teri c                om
and y s tem c arac s ti s ,oth er TM D c p onents ,s uc as     h
            gh      tud         ef      TH
th eater h i alti e area d ense ( A A D )andnav al ai              r
  ef      N       ,
d ense ( A D ) are not li    kely to b s eri ly c i ered
                                      e     ous     ons d        .
         ore       ng e
    B ef m ov i b y ondth ec                         ,
                                  urrent R&D s tage h ow ev er,
                 iy                             on
Jap anes e p ol c m akers needto p ay attenti to a h os t of
          om      c              ac        rs
m ajor d es ti andexternal f tors . F i t,as th e Jap anes e
  c             f
e onom y sufers f                      e            or   e ad ,
                     rom nearly 0 p erc nt grow th f a d c e
  oup        th        ng        orm ng
c ledw i grow i nonp erf i andund erf i           erp orm ng
                  c -h gh
loans anda re ord i unem p loy m ent rate of 5 p erc nt     e
th rough out2                  s oom     to          n
                001,th eJSD F i d ed engagei an up h i l      l
              n
battle agai s t th e nati                   i
                            onal lev el s oc al p rogram s and
  c        c           on f                      th n ts
e onom i res torati eforts , as w ell as w i i i th ree
       c
s erv i es .
        c ,               s
     Se ond Jap an’ M D d b                   s     je t
                                    e ate i s ub c to w ell-know n
b            rati n-fgh ng
  ureauc c i i ti and legal c trai . It i th e    ons     nts      s
  om               i s v                             ri
c p lex anddv i i enatureofM D th at b ngs to b ar up on       e
       e ate
th ed b th ec       onti           om       ti                d
                            nuedc p eti on am ong th ei eologi al     c
  am        lef       gh , nteres t group s (
c p s ( t v s . ri t) i                               -C na
                                                  anti h i group s v s .
             on
arm s c trol s up p orters ) an d gov ern m en t agen c es            i
 M ni
( i s try of F i              e                    en
                      nanc v s . Jap an D ef s e A genc ) Th e  y .
             ng
w eakeni of th e tradti                      t
                                i onal lef and th e new “K oi um i  z
f                        s      d     c ty           n
 actor”— as Jap an’ w i er s e uri role i th e w ake ofth e
        n gh        s         em
w ar i A f ani tan d ons trates — c               ouldm ake a s tronger
  as or s le ef                 ,               ragi
c ef m i s i d ense alth ough a f lep ol ti alc i i       i c oal t on
andth e ens ui f                    h
                  ng requent c ange ofgov ernm entc           oulds teer
th e d                       n
         ebate back i to a m ore f i i bureauc  am l ar             ratic
         -w                       ni e onc rnedw i th ei s ue.6
tug-of ar am ong th e m i s tri s c e                      th     s
A s Step h en A . C am b       one h as p oi             n        e v
                                             ntedout i a p erc p ti e
      y                            s              r om
s tud , th e M D p rogram i s et to s ti d es ti d b         c e ate i  n
                t       h                 h         ti
Jap an as i touc es upon suc s ensi v e i s ues as th e    s

                                 204
     e ul           e       gh
p eac f us eofs p ac ,th eri t ofcollec v ed ense and e
                                       ti   ef   ,   th
                                       7
           ef                h      e
exp ort ofd ense-relatedtec nologi s .
         rd      nes         ti        l             m
     Th i ,C h i e reac ons w i l h av e an i p ortant role to
                        iy               ll
p lay . Jap anes e p ol c m akers w i rem ai c e   n onc rnedw i      th
              v m       t      ts         e i on
th e negati e i p ac of i M D d c s i on Si               no-Jap anes e
        ons v        f     na’
relati , e en i C h i s relati                   th oth th e Uni
                                         ons w i b                   ted
               Jap         i
States and an arel kely to b s trai   e            f
                                              ned or th ef  ores eeab el
f                les                            ti s
 uture regard s . A s to th e m os t s ensi v ei s ues i olv i nv     ng
          n
Jap an i th e ey es ofB e ji                s          s
                            i ng— th at i ,Jap an’ p otenti role  al
 n         w
i a Tai an c       onti        y
                       ngenc , Jap an h as no p rac c op titi al      on
                    ng            i               e
oth er th an taki an am b guous s tanc . F or th i reas on,   s
             l e
Jap an w i l b v ery c     auti                     n     ndul
                                 ous and rem ai m i f of th e
s o-called “i  nternati           c ty tuati ” i w h i h th e
                        onal s e uri s i           on, n          c
     na ac          c e          e            e
C h i f tor oc up i s a c ntral p lac . A s i e f                  i c
                                                     d rom p ol ti al
  ev                n ros
d elop m ents i c s - Strai and i   t         nter- K orean relati   ons
                      c      fc als
th at m any A m eri an ofi i andanaly s ts of b l e e to ten e i v
  em
b i p ortant v ari                      ti      y      w
                      ables ,th e p os i ons b Tai an andSouth
                        qui ti
K orea on TM D ac s i on c                    gni i antly afe t th e
                                     ould s i fc                fc
               e i on
Jap anes e dc s i as w ell.
                v     f               ow    e
     F ourth , e en i th e PA C -3 l -ti r and A E G IS-b ed   as
                  e                                 e qui
N TW up p er-ti r s y s tem s w ere ev entually to b ac redb       y
            t                            or
Jap an, i w ould leav e no role f th e Jap an G round
      -D ens          e JG        .         y oes
Self ef e F orc ( SD F ) Not onl d th e arm y s ti l               l
        n
rem ai th e m os t d i                c n
                      om nant s erv i e i Jap an— as w ell as i    n
K orea— b i                 c v                          c
             ut nter-serv i e ri alry am ong th e s erv i es , w ith
     h      ng      c     ts       c v row
eac try i to s e urei res p e ti ec n jew els (       e.g.,tanks ,
     p          rc t) oes            od         or
s h i s , andai raf , d n ot b e w ell f TM D f i         undng.
       er     h i um          e
Und suc crc s tanc s a real op p ortuni c t exi ts ty os         s
                        orm
betw een m ajor p latf s andTM D .
        f            los
     F i th , an d c ely related to th e f                 ac
                                                  ourth f tor,
i              ii y       om
 nterop erab l t and c m and and c                      lm      l
                                            ontrol p rob e s w i l
     s
ari e s ooner rath er th an later. A s th e JSD F i n ot    s
s truc                        er      om i
       turedto op erate und a c b ned f e c m andorc s om
    th
w i th e Uni                   i                      lc
                tedStates ,unl ke th e U.S.-Repubi ofK orea
(          as , t      s     d           h om
 ROK )c e i need to ad res s s uc c p lex ques ti          ons as
th e lev el of i             i                    e
                  nterop erab lity , s urv eillanc and c i ue ng,
    jus             orc
ad tm ents off e s truc            ,
                             ture andop erati    onal control .


                                 205
                                   s       onf
    Taken togeth er, th es e i s ues c ront Jap an w i         th
  i         h             c t           a e e ore     ng e
dv ers ec allenges ,w h i h i m us t f c b f m ov i b y ond
th e c  urrent R&D p h as e. IfJap an ev er takes th at cours e of
   ti      t     d         re n
ac on,i w oul tran s p i i th ec                  om    c ii s
                                       ontext ofd es ti p ol t c
andan external env i                 h     teri ed y
                        ronm ent c arac z b a d ati      ram     c
  ep
d arture f                                      er
              rom th e p as t p atterns. In ord to p rep are f  or
     h               ty                          s
suc an ev entuali , as one Jap anes e ob erv er noted a        ,
    i c e i on as on                 ri c ty
p ol ti al dc s i b ed th ec ti ali ofth eU.S. alli e        anc
                  l c uc on ntend to p rov i e a better
as w ell as p ub i ed ati i               ed         d
       ers      i           s       an
und tan dn g of th i arc e is s ue w ill be a good
b gi ng.8
  e nni

   w                      tc
Tai an: In Search ofa Poli i al Sh ield.

          s le
     A m i s i th reat f rom m ai           na,            th
                                  nlandC h i togeth er w i a
 i ted nav al b oc e c
lm i                l kad, onsti                m          e
                                    tutes a p ri ary s ourc of
  onc rn          w
c e to Tai an, e p e i                            ng
                          s c ally at th e op eni s tages of a
large-s c      ros         t onfi t.       d ts onger-range
          ale c s - Strai c l c B es i es i l
    s l nv                 na s                       ep
m i s ie i entory , C h i i rep orted to h av e d loy ed a
    ni               00                alli c s l s SRB M s )
m i m um of15 0-2 s h ort-rangeb s ti m i s i e (
         te     w               oub
op p os i Tai an an d d tles s h as a c ab lity to ap i
   gni i antly i reas e i exi ti m i s i ars enal.9 Sh ort
s i fc          nc          ts    s ng     s le
        ng m
w arni ti e f                  om i ates any m i s i d en s e
                    urth er c p l c                s le ef
   h       y     w
s c em e b Tai an.
            f       w
     E v en i Tai an p os s es s es a li i             s l ef
                                            m ted m i s i e d ense
 ap ii y ons s ng                            /M i i
c ab l t c i ti ofth ree PA C -2 odfedA i D ef             r     ense
           M            i      ts    th 00       s ls
Sy s tem ( A D S)fre uni w i 2 m i s i e as w ell as of
   e
Ti n Kung (   Sky B ow )s urf e            r s l s SA          ,t
                                  ac -to-ai m i s i e ( M s ) i by
                              fc ent
no m ean s p os s es s es s ufi i m eas ures to c   ounter th elarge
                             ng     nes       s le
andap p arently grow i C h i e m i s i th reat. F or th i            s
              w               ons d d
reas on, Tai an h as c i ere oth er op ti , s uc as   ons        h
  ev
d elop m ent of l                        s ls          an
                       onger-range m i s i e th at c reac th e h
           nsi e
targets i d th e m ai                          m
                             nlandandh as i p lem entedv ari       ous
        v ef
p as s i ed ensem easures . Noneofth em areli                  e
                                                      kely to b v ery
   fc v         nst            nes      s les
efe ti e agai th e C h i e m i s i ,h ow ev er.
                 s        n
    A s m any ob erv ers i W as h i         i ng,      p i
                                   ngton,B e ji andTai e
h av e p oi             w   s        h or      s le ef
           nted out, Tai an’ s earc f a m i s i d ense
 ap ii y e         ng           ted        s   m   l m
c ab l t c nteri on th e Uni States i p ri ari y ai ed

                                206
      c ng        i c                   l tary , d
at s e uri p ol ti al, rath er th an m ii                 e
                                                  eterrenc . A s
th e needto c ounter th e m ai       ’s
                               nland th reat andto m ai  ntai  n
relati       th         ted         s              ls
      ons w i th eUni States i a w ell-es tabi h edf t ofac
 ie             ii i        th               lc n
l f am ong p ol t c ans and egeneralpubi i Tai an,i i  w     ts
         or      w
natural f Tai an to c         d     ni
                         onsi er joi ng U.S. M D to an extent
      n
andi w ay s th at m ai      n     ii n             w
                        ntai stab l ty i th e Tai an Strai   t.
    Th e d         is     c i                            s
            anger l e ,ac ordng to Th om as J. C h ri tensen,i      n
     als                ety
th ef es enseofs af M D m i tc                     or
                                    gh reate f W as h i     ngton as
           or    p i         s      s          qui ti
w ell as f Tai e . In h i w ord ,“Th e ac s i on ofm i s i      s le
  ef                                             s
d enses th us m ay p erv ers ely m ake th ei landap p ear s af     er
       t tually i i th e ey es ofth e A m eri an p ub i and
th an i ac          s n                               c       lc
lead h i , to th e d m ent of Tai an’ s e uri .”10
     ers p                  etri               w       s   c ty
               ,          m
Furth erm ore as a Sti s on C enter rep ort h as p ersuas i ely  v
         11
         ,               om
argued any TM D c p onents transf                          w
                                             erredto Tai an th at
arei              l
     nterop erab eandi            w th        orc s
                          l nked i U.S. f e w oul not onl  d        y
 nv te
i i a s trong reac on f ti     rom C h i     nc udng
                                        na, i l i tensi        ons in
         w           t,        n
th e Tai an Strai andi U.S.-C h i relati  na                 ut oul
                                                      ons, b c d
ac tually s end anoth er w rong s i                   w
                                    gnal to th e Tai an p eop le,as
         ef
notedb ore.
          ts           w         e       fc al all or om
    F or i p art, Tai an m ad an ofi i c f c m on
  ef           nst          ng     nes     s l h
d ense agai th egrow i C h i em i s i et reat to i elf     ts
as w ell as to th e Uni   ted States and Jap an. In a re e c nt
i       e        w          d                -b an
 nterv i w , Tai an Pres i ent C h en Sh ui i arguedth at
           m s le]              ns      w     s
“A PRC [ i s i th reat agai t Tai an i s om eth i th at ng
         ted                    Tai
th eUni States ,Jap an and w an m us t joi              eal th
                                                  ntly d w i
th rough th edv i i ofres p onsi ii y andc erati 12 In
                i s on             bl t        oop     on.”
     m l      i     w
a s i i ar v e n,Tai an’ M i s try ofN ati
                         s    ni            onal D efensem ad e
 l ar         f nv tedi w oul “s eri ly ” c i er joi ng
c e th at i i i          t      d      ous      ons d      ni
U.S. M D .
         le    w    s      ti                     l
    W h i Tai an’ reac ons to U.S. M D w i l v ery m uc      h
  ep                             s le
d endup on th e lev el of m i s i and oth er th reats f   rom
m ai nland C h i               nes        ers p or ts
                 na, th e C h i e lead h i , f i p art,
       ns        e                    b onne ti b tw een
rem ai w orri d about any p os s i le c          c on e
                         w            on.     na’
U.S. TM D andth e Tai an ques ti C h i s reac ons to  ti
             ers       w       l e           ous
TM D transf to Tai an w i lb m os t s eri . A s M D w ould
 om         s ts ii y
c p rom i ei ab l t to c          e    w                e
                             oerc Tai an not to m ov eb y ond
     i ts        y   i ng,           s                    w
th el m i s et b B e ji th e PRC i v ery op p os edto Tai an


                               207
                  c              c nt       y y
TM D . In p arti ular, as a re e s tud b th e M onterey
Insti  tute ofInternati           is M
                        onal Stude ( IIS)h as p oi    ntedout,a
         i        th    w
TM D l nkedw i Tai an— es p e i                               p
                                   c ally th e A E G IS-equi p ed
  es                            m     r     na’      ii y
d troy ers — w oulds ev erely i p ai C h i s ab l t to d       eter
          ted                  ted             Jap
th eUni States or th eUni States and an i a m ajor       n
     w
Tai an c    ontingenc andw ouldc
                     y               onstitute a quas i        anc
                                                          -alli e
                                                13
               w
betw een Tai an and th e Uni       ted States . It m ay th us
f            i orc     i l
 urth er re nf e a c rc e ofc         nm           nst
                                ontai ent agai C h i         na.
         i        oth    w      s        or       i c
    In l gh t ofb Tai an’ n eedf a p ol ti al s h i l i th eed n
 ace        l ar s l h                        na’
f ofa c e m i s i et reat andofC h i s s trong reac ons         ti
      nst l         e e               w
agai c os er ti s b tw een Tai an andth e Uni States ,    ted
any v i   able f        or        w                all
                 uture f Tai an w ould f betw een th e
         te      ti         s
op p os i p os i ons. Th i als o p oi                  ac
                                         nts to th e f t th at any
           on n ros
res oluti i c s - Strai relatit               ll
                                       ons w i ands h ould b ofae
        c
p oliti al, an d h op ef   ully p eacef   ul, n ature. H ow ev er,
conti                    n         ros        t
      nueds talem ate i th e c s -Strai talks ,c ledw i oup         th
                                                                     14
        gh      i ted s c e of th e M D d b
th e h i ly l m i        op                             n     w
                                                e ate i Tai an,
           onti                       s          orm
w ould c nue to m ake th e i s ue a d ant y et h i ly            gh
c              al      n
 onsequenti one i th e th ree-w ay relati                   p
                                                      onsh i am ong
   i ng,       p i
B e ji Tai e ,andW as h i        ngton.

South K orea: Self-reliant Now ,L i   d t
                                   nke w i h th e
UnitedStates L ater?

              ng     s l              n                 s
    C ounteri m i s i e th reats i South K orea’ ov erall
  ef
d ense requi                       e       n     if
               rem ents s h ouldb s een i a dferent c      ontext
f                                   w
 rom th os e of Jap an and Tai an. F or one th i          ng, th e
    e d op c h             n          d          al
kal i os c i c anges i pos t-C ol W ar glob andregi          onal
   c ty         th        i
s e uri notw i s tandng, th e c                            c ty
                                    rux ofth e K orean se uri
     lm
p rob e h as rem ai                    l     h
                      nedrem arkab y unc angedto d         ate: a
     -b
land as ed iim l tary th reat f                             th
                               rom N orth K orea. E v en w i out
a Nuc e l ar, B i     c                  c    N        ap
                 ologi al, and C h em i al ( B C ) c ability ,
               s onv
N orth K orea’ c enti              l tary c ab l t i general
                           onal m ii       ap ii y n
            z , ep oy                     p
and th e s i e d l m ent, and equi m ent of th e N orth
                   s          N          n        c
K orean Peop le’ A rm y ( K PA ) i p arti ular p os e a
   gni i ant                 ef
s i fc th reat to th e d enseofSouth K orea. Not only i          s
                      c            or         gh       c
th e N K PA n um eri ally s up eri and h i ly m e h ani ed    z ,
  ut          e         ts   f    v
b 6 5 p erc nt of i ofen s i e elem ents are c           urrently


                                208
 onc ntrated w i i 6 0 m i e n orth of th e D em ii z
c e                 th n          ls                     l tari ed
Z       D     ) nc             , h
  one ( M Z. Si e Seoul t e South K orean c i and      ap tal
                 li            s
h om eof12m i l on p eop le,i loc        les        0 les
                                     ated s th an 3 m i s outh
          em l tari ed one ( M Z,th e South K orean f e
ofth e d ii z z                 D      )                     orc s
        h
w ould av eli                 c ep         w     ng m
                ttle s trategi d th and arni ti e. W h iei    l t
 s                                   orc s ac
i true th at th e South K orean f e ,b kedb th e Uniy          ted
          orc s         y    i        nd     al nf
States f e andb th e r ow n i us tri i ras truc               , o
                                                          ture d
      n          s        al    h
retai a s ub tan ti tec nologi al ed     c      ge, th e N K PA ’s
        tati
quanti v eand                   c      v
                     geograp h i alad antages c       w
                                                 ould elllead   to
     c        l am
unac ep tab e d age up on th e South , e p e i    s c ally up on
Seoul.15
    Th rough out th e 19 9 0s , m oreov er, N orth K orea’         s
   c          on                 ap b l t
ac um ulati of an NB C c a i i y p os ed an ad i onal      dti
                              c ty
th reat to South K orean se uri . North K orea’ c             s
                                                      s onsi tent
  f            ev
eforts to d elop v ari                       s le
                           ous ty p es of m i s i s y s tem s w ere
       f     n                 l gh
m ani es t i at leas t th ree fi t tes ts : th e M ay 19 9 3tes t of
th e N od          s l an m                   on
           ong m i s i e ( i p rov edv ers i ofSc -C )w i
                                                       ud        th
                               ls
th e range of ov er 5 00 m i e ; th e June 19 9 4 tes t of tw o
                  s p      s les
6 0-m ile an ti h i m i s i ; an d th e w ell- p u bliciz        ed
th ree-stage Tae od                 i                 s c s l
                    p ong-1 M edum -Range B alli ti M i s i e
( RB M ) i A ugus t 19 9 8.16 North K orea i b l e ed to
 M           n                                      s ei v
p os s es s 300-5 00 Sc                             s c      s
                          ud Sh ort-Range B alli ti M i s iles
(                   ous
 SRB M s )ofv ari ty p es and     about 100 N od  ong M RB M s .
                              s    , s c ally at th e op eni
     H ow ev er, m os t w orri om e e p e i                   ng
                    s
p h as es of w ar, i th e th reat of b           ti s y
                                       arrage tac c b N orth
         s    5                 le          c            4
K orea’ 11, 00-s trong arti l ry . In p arti ular,th e 2 0-m m
                                        M
M ultip le Rocket L au n ch ers ( RL s ) an d 1 7 0 - m m
     -p                    th                  l
s elf rop elledguns, w i a range of6 5 ki om eters and4 5
   lom                ci        an i e
ki eters , res p e t v ely , c l t rally s h ow er Seoul w i   th
            s           s   th n    ew
th ous and ofround w i i a f h ours — a f t p oi  ac       ntedly
      e n          aly c                n      h       y
m ad i an ap oc p ti s tatem ent i M arc 19 9 4 b N orth
K orean negoti    ator Park Young Soo w h o th reatened h i     s
c                      n as                            e om
  ounterp art th at, i c e ofa w ar, Seoul w ould b c e a
           i                dti           nd         s
“s ea of fre.” A s an ad i onal rem i er of th i arti l ry   le
                         s                 orp
th reat, th e N K PA ’ tw o artillery c s are currently
  ep          eow                           i          t
d loy edb l th ePy ongy ang-W ons an l ne. Th us ,i can b       e
  onc ud                         s   s l ap b l t ons tutes
c l edth at N orth K orea’ m i s iec a i i y c ti


                               209
     gni i ant, b not th e p ri ary ,th reat to South K orean
a s i fc         ut            m
   c ty
s e uri .
               v     i       v         s l h           n
    Th e relati e w e gh t gi en to m i s i e t reats i South
        s         ef
K orea’ ov erall d ense requi                          ac
                               rem ents w as a m ajor f tor in
                        s      h                  e
th e ROK gov ernm ent’ M arc 19 9 9 announc m ent th at i    t
                 cp      n
w ouldnot p arti i ate i a U.S. TM D s y s tem on th e ground
                     s            c    h      teri c
th at “South K orea’ geograp h i al c arac s ti s and i     ts
 i teds trategi d th as w ell as our tec ni al c a i i y
lm i             c ep                         h c ap b l t
      c       c ondti                                n t
ande onom i c i ons w ouldnot allow us to joi i at th i      s
s tage.”17
              iy                          ,                 s l
     ROK p ol c m akers arew ellaw are h ow ev er,th at m i s i e
  ef        s     s
d ense i an i s ue th at c          ri c       fc
                              ouldc ti ally afe t th e h ealth of
 ts     anc            ons p th           ted
i alli erelati h i w i th e Uni States . B es i es i      d ts
     anc i s                        ns e
alli et e ,South K orea rem ai c ntral to an ov erallU.S.
M D p lan and i regits           om
                           onal c p onents : th e N orth K orean
    s l             m
m i s i e as a p ri ary rati  onale,th e M utual D efense Treaty
 M       -m
( D T) and                ep
                 ated d loy m ent of U.S. w eap ons i and n
                                          e             e
aroundSouth K orea,andth ep res enc ofU.S. F orc s K orea
(USF K )  .
                 e n             on
    It w ould b a exaggerati to s ay , h ow ev er, th at i  n
                           en             v   e ate
South K orea th ere h as b e an extensi e d b on th e M D
i s ue at ei er th e pub i or gov ernm ent lev el.18 Th e
 s           th              lc
              s     ti                  e n onfnedto th at of
gov ernm ent’ p os i on h as largely b e c i
         ni
th e M i s try of N ati             en      M      ,
                          onal D ef s e ( N D ) w h ile any
 n-d       i us ons                      ons      s l ef
i ep th ds c s i on th ep ros andc ofm i s i ed enses
 n                          ar e n              y
i South K orea h av e s o f b e h eldonly b a h andul of f
                tu
p olicy in s ti tes , u n iv ers ities , an d nongov erm en t
        z ons ( G Os)19 F rom th os e li i d b
organi ati       N      .                 m ted e ates ,a few
        ng         c v     an e i e
em ergi p ers p e ti es c b ds c rnedth at c               fc
                                                     ouldafe t
               s i
South K orea’ l kely c              ti
                        ours e ofac on.
       rs          oul      e         fc on, th e p ri ary
    F i t, h ow c d p eac and uni i ati                m
nati         je ti                  e onc led th
     onal ob c v eofSouth K orea,b rec i w i m i s i e   s l
  ef               d        e      e
d enses ? W oul th e p eac p roc s s on th e p eni  nsula b e
 nv
i ers ely c             th         s l ef        ,     c
            orrelatedw i U.S. m i s i e d ense as M i h ael
G reen andTob D alton,am ong oth ers ,h av e p os i ?20 Or
                 y                                  ted
           s l ef
w ouldm i s i e d ense c  onstitute a p art of South K orea’s
           on or ts utures e uri env i
p rep arati f i f           c ty                       les
                                        ronm entregard s ?

                              210
       c      s          b l ty or     h
    Se ondi th e p os s i ii f a c ange ofgov ernm ent i      n
th e D ecem ber 2              d      al   ti        i
                   002 p res i enti elec on. Unl ke th e
 nc      e                      c                         s
i um b nt gov ernm ent, w h i h puts a h eav y em p h as i on
   c ii on         th
re onc l ati w i N orth K orea, L ee H oei C h ang, th e
c          h rm                    ti
  urrent c ai an ofth e op p os i on G randN ati onal Party ,
             ef       n                  d al      ti
w h o w as d eated i th e 19 9 7 p res i enti elec on b a   y
                n, s                        h
narrow m argi i know n to h av e a m uc tough er p ol c      iy
       e                          n
s tanc tow ard N orth K orea i general and tow ard th e
       s    s l                           es    ti     W
latter’ m i s i e andw eap ons of m as s d truc on ( M D )
c ab l t i parti ular.21
  ap ii y n         c
              d       e                 c                h
    It s h oul als o b notedp arenth eti ally th at m uc ofth e
  onf on n               s                 iy
c us i i th e ROK ’ N orth K orea p ol c s tem s f      rom th e
ten s ion betw een a p rogres s iv e gov ern m en t an d
c            v      i    n                    l
  onserv ati e s oc ety i South K orea, w h i e th e op p os ite—
         s      on         v
th at i , a c s erv ati e gov ern m ent an d p rogres s i e     v
    i                 en      as n                         ii s
s oc ety — h as long b e th ec ei pos t-w ar K orean p ol t c .
         rd      l h                       e i ed
     Th i , w h i e t e ROK gov ernm ent d c d not to joi n
              t oes not ne e s ari y m ean th at i w i l b
U.S. TM D , i d              cs     l              t   l e
  ep v               s l ef        ap ii y n
d ri edofany m i s i e d ense c ab l t i th e f     uture,a
    nt requently rai ed b th e i
p oi f                 s   y          s ti       i
                                  nqui i v e m eda andth e
 ri c
c ti al NG Os.
         le t s      or     or           fc als
    W h i i i rare f s eni ROK ofi i to m ake p ubi             lc
                                           ii
s tatem ents on M D ,one ofth e m os t exp l c t s tatem ents w as
     e y        ef      ni       n
m ad b th ed ensem i s ter i earl 2                   c es
                                        y 001,w h i h d erv es
a long quotati  on.
                                c s      l      onc p
    Th eU.S. NM D p lan,w h i h i s ti lat a c e tual stage,need         s
          op      th      h c                   ud
    to c e w i tec ni al p roblem s , b get ap p rop ri on,        ati
      ons
    c ultati           th     e nc i
                ons w i alli s i ludng NA TO, andRus s i and     an
         nes     s                 l h
    C h i e re p onses andw i l t eref                         m
                                             ore take s om e ti e to b   e
      i      z .           R
    f n ali ed Th e [ O K ] gov ern m en t, w h en th e B us h
        m ni        on’                  e om
    ad i s trati s N M D p lan b c es m ore c rete, w i    onc          ll
    c      ous     l f
      auti ly c ari y our p os i on af taki a c p reh e s i e
                                  ti       ter     ng     om        n v
        e
    v i w of our c ab                           c ty ons d rati
                     ap ility and oth er s e uri c i e on s .
              i                                 s
    Regardng TM D , th e gov ern m ent i n ot c i eri    ons d ng to
           cp       n t        s          n i
    p arti i ate i i at th i s tage i l gh t of our geograp h i al    c
      h      teri c c           c ap b l t
    c arac s ti s , e onom i c a i i y ,andth e urge y of[   nc      our]
                                       s
    res p ons es to N orth K orea’ long-range artillery an d
                             Sc s .                              v
    s h ort-range th reats [ ud ?] Ov er th elonger term ,gi en th e


                                    211
   c                             s
     urren t North K orean m i s ile th reat and f uture battle
   env i        nt,        v e ng      on     t    s le ef
          ronm e w e are re i w i to c s truc a m i s i d en s e
                                                     22
                tab e o         s c ty
   s y s tem sui l t our ow n [e uri ]env i ronm ent.

                    , h
     Furth erm ore t e South K orean m ii           s      n
                                           l tary i now i th e
    d le             n    i
m i d of m aki g f v e m ajor w eap ons p roc         urem en t
  e i ons: th e F-X, th e A H -X, th e E -X, th e SA M -X, and
dc s i
K D X-III.23 A m ong th e fv e b g-ti ket i s , totali ov er
                             i     i c     tem          ng
  10 i on $           2         ,
$ b lli ( 1=1, 00 w on) th e SA M -X, th e K D X-III, and
           A rb              ng
th e E -X ( i orne W arni andC ontrol Sy s tem )p rogram s
                                h tec      v     f
are relev ant to an M D arc i ture, e en i th e ev entual
f                        s le ef                  s
 orm of any ROK m i s i d ens e s y s tem i a m atter of
                          24
c     c            s m
  onje tureatth i ti e. F or th eSA M -X p rogram th ePA C -3
      i
C onfgurati          s
              on-3 i a s eri ous c       er,     l h
                                   ontend w h i e t e K D X-III
 nc ud           es            th                         or
i l es tw o d troy ers w i th e A E G IS s y s tem . A s f th e
        ni              orm      t         e
rem ai ng th reep latf s ,i s eem s s af to s ay th at th ey are
    l e ng ontes ted b A m eri an and E urop ean d ense
s til b i c               y         c                    ef
  id
b d ers .
           le                     l nsi         y
      W h i th e gov ernm ent s ti li s ts — onl w h en as kedb  y
th e i        s ti                   ore gn       i
        nqui i v e K orean and f i m eda— on an M D
                   i nto South K orea’ n eed , i begs th e
s y s tem th at fts i                      s       s t
          on                         ev     qui
ques ti ofh ow th eROK w ould er ac reand erateth e    op
         i l e ue ng, and B attle M anagem ent/C om m and
surv e l anc , c i                                                 ,
           ,
C ontrol and C om m uni ati            B      ) ap b l t
                            c ons ( M /C 3 c a i i y , w h i h  c
 m         i               i          on
i m edately p uts a b g ques ti m ark on i tec ni al  ts    h c
 eas b l ty          undng          lblt
f i ii and f i av ai a i i y . A t p res ent, USF K
op erates only oneb          on          ot s les th x i ng
                       attali ofPatri m i s i w i s i fri
b          e       c an arely d endi key i tallati
  atteri s , w h i h c b            ef     ts       ns       ons—
       n
agai a p oi              nd
                ntedrem i er ofth e ROK gov ernm ent’ f   s uture
         or             s l -d ense s y s tem .
needf a larger m i s i e ef
    Fi         i                          n
      nally , l ke m any oth er s tates i th e regi   on, South
          l        ac    n       m    t ts         e i on
K orea w i lals o f tor i th ei p ac ofi M D dc s i on i      ts
            i     ors   s c ally on C h i
larger n e gh b , e p e i                            s s
                                            na. Th i i qui   te
    ers
und tand                   e         c ty               ns
              able,as p eac ands e uri on th e p eni ula i     s
        h
as m uc an i   nternati       s
                       onal i s ue as an inter- K orean one and
            ty                           lc     ev      gh
th em ajori ofth eSouth K orean pub i p erc i es ,ri tly or
                     na l                 ng        e gn
w rongly ,th at C h i w i l p lay a grow i andb ni role i      n
                                      25
     ns         f rs n
p eni ular afai i th e f        uture. To m ake a long s tory


                               212
                             na ac       le m            l
s h ort,h ow ev er,th e C h i f tor,w h i i p ortant,w i l not
  om nate th ed c s i as a c b nati off tors i l i
d i               e i on,       om i     on    ac     nc udng
                s ef            s ts l te
South K orea’ d ense need ,i e i p erc p ti    e ons,andth e
         ng
em ergi s trategi c i              on n          on
                      c onfgurati i th e regi all p oi to nt
                  on            s ng           c    ori z on”
th e p rolongati of th e exi ti “s trategi p ri ti ati
    th          ted           n     e ad
w i th e Uni States i th e d c es to c e.     om

                              m        v
North K orea: A M atter ofRegi e Surv i al.

        i
     B e ng s i                   m
               ngledout as a p ri ary rati              or
                                               onale f U.S. M D ,
                    am
N orth K orea ad antly op p os es th e p lan. N orth K orea’         s
   s e           ti                              d e
v i c ral reac on to M D , h ow ev er, s h oul b s een i th e   n
c             ts und               :      m         v
  ontext ofi f am entalgoal regi es urv i al. Its nuc e           l ar
         s l ap b l t s              p
andm i s i ec a i i y i a m ulti urp os e enabler th at h elp s
to keep th e K i Jong Il regi e afoat.26 M i
                  m             m       l                      or
                                                   litarily ,f one
    ng, t eters th eUni States or th eROK -U.S. c b ned
th i i d                  ted                                om i
 orc s rom attac ng th e N orth i c e ofa c
f e f               ki                 n as           onti        y
                                                           ngenc as
 ts
i Sc s , N od
         ud                             b
                     ongs , and p os s i ly Taep od      ongs c  ould
th reaten South K orea, Jap an, and th e Uni             ted States ,
           v         p       c         or
res p ecti ely . D i lom ati ally , f an oth er, i m i s its     s le
  ap ii y
c ab l t h elp s N orth K orea to m ai          n ts
                                            ntai i ow n lev erage
      p      ge n
and res ti i th ei     nternati                        l
                               onal arena. F or s ti lanoth er,i    ts
    s l ap ii y s
m i s i e c ab l t i a m ajor h ard c              y
                                             urrenc earner i i   n ts
           e l ni         d
ov erall d ci ng outs i e trad    e.
                                          ng       i
    F or th es e reas ons , w h ile taki a “dp lom ati uni c     ted
 ron           n
f t” agai s t U.S. M D w i M os c     th         ow an d B eiji  ng,
                       f                      e i
Py ongy ang h as ofered th e m os t ac rb c p h ras es i i      n ts
   fc al
ofi i Rod                           c                    ted
              ong Sh i un,w h i h s ay s th at th eUni States
                      nm
h as i        ed                               lc D
       ntend to “run ov er th e Rep ubi [ PRK ] b M D ,     y      ”
“p us h to d                    o               er,     “ai
            eath th os ew h o d not surrend ” and m at th e
w h olew orl as i s trategi c
              d ts             c oordnates .”27 Itf
                                        i            urth er argues
th at th e“s o-c     th                                 s l
                alled eory ofth eN orth K orean m i s i eth reat
 s
i an unas h am edc         s      ”                   ted
                       asui try , andth at th e Uni States i       s
                 ng
now th reateni North K orea b m ii    y                       w
                                           l tary m eans and oul   d
launc a p reem p ti e s tri at i at th e ri t m om ent.28
       h              v       ke      t          gh
   A m ong a l     i            v m      ts          ts ,
              ong l s t ofnegati ei p ac ofM D unto i elf
             ow                               z        lt
M D w aters d n andm ay ev entually neutrali e th e utii y
                  s                    s
of N orth K orea’ n u clear an d m i s ile p rogram as a

                                213
b        ni      h p i t
  argai ng c i (f i w as ev er i              ed      e
                                        ntend to b s o) i i    n ts
        ati        th
negoti on w i th e Uni                        s              b
                              tedStates . It i als o p os s i le and
        i                                               ers p
ev en l kely ,h ow ev er,th at th eN orth K orean lead h i h as
         y      ers    th act          es te ts
alread und tood ef th at d p i i rep eated os ti             h     le
          c              s          s
rh etori ,TM D /N M D i not an i s ue to b b e argai  nedaw ay at
           c                s         c v            ti
any p ri e. North K orea’ p ers p e ti es andp os i ons on M D
        m l                      na n         t
are s i iar to th os e of C h i i th at i s ees U.S. M D as
h av in g a p olitical m otiv e bas ed on m ilitary an d
    h      ogi al                            s    m
tec nol c p row es s and th at M D i ai ed at “rogue
         ”            onc rn,       s l
s tates , “s tates ofc e ” “m i s i ep rol f                 n
                                             i erators ”— i oth er
      s         i i                ted
w ord ,th e ds l kes ofth e Uni States .
          l                  m ni         on         onfrm
     W h i e th e B us h ad i s trati h as c i ed th e
            on            ati         th
resum p ti of negoti ons w i Py ongy ang, th e latter
      ers      s ull                        ts
und tand f w ell th at unles s i W M D cap a i i i s ,     blte
    s l        i e on
m i s i ep rol f rati andc entionv             orc s       d
                                        onal f e are ad res s ed     ,
          l e ite           or m
th ere w i lb l t l h op ef i p rov ed           ons           ts
                                           relati betw een i elf
andW as h i                 th        i      c
              ngton. Notw i s tandng Se retary ofState C ol n     i
            s all or               on
L . Pow ell’ c f a resum p ti ofU.S.-N orth K orean talks
                         m ,2
“any w h ere, at any ti e ” 9 th e new U.S. ad i s trati s
                                                     m ni       on’
  em         or      i             m
d and f an “ m p rov ed i p lem entati            on” of th e 19 9 4
                                fab e ons          nts
G enev a A greem ent, “v eri i l c trai ” on m i s i e        s l
                             onv
p rogram s as w ellas th ec enti             orc s           c
                                      onalf ei s ue— w h i h are
   gni i antly dferent f
s i fc            if                                      e
                           rom th os e ofth e Perry Proc s s — are
        y                                        v ng
s een b N orth K orea as tantam ount to gi i up i trum p  ts
  ard
c s.
                   s        be      ti                  ep
     N orth K orea’ p os s i l reac ons to U.S. M D d loy m ent
            c
andp arti ularly South K orea’ f              nv v         n t
                                   s uturei ol em ent i i are
  y             e n. i ted                       ons
b no m eans c rtai A l m i rangeofop ti North K orea
    gh                 h
m i t take, s uc as exp an s i                m
                                        on, i p rov em en t, an d
        s c on               s ng s l                  ev
s op h i ti ati ofth e exi ti m i s i e ars enal,d elop m ent
                      s les
ofnew ty p es ofm i s i or c                              nc
                                 ounterm easures ,andi reas ed
    s le                       e         b ti
m i s i s ales , w ould b p roh i i v ely c tly an dos         /or
  i          c            s            i        ,
dp lom ati ally unw i e. In th e r s tead N orth K orea’         s
                     on s      i         c lari    all th
s h ort-term s oluti i a dp lom ati c on c w i C h i            na
             a,   le       ti or h
andRus s i w h i w ai ng f a c ange ofatm os p h eri s i a  c n
rec ialc trant W as h i  ngton. A s long as Seoul and Toky o
         n
rem ai v ul         l o ts       s l             ap ii y
              nerab e t i m i s i eandN B C c ab l t ,N orth


                                214
K orea m ay take a c    i         on om i    th
                    oerc v e op ti c b nedw i s ep arate
      ati      th          ted
negoti ons w i th e Uni States andSouth K orea.
                               n
     It w as , h ow ev er, i th is cons tricted extern al
env i                                                  e
      ronm ent ofN orth K orea th at th eSep tem b r 11 attac      ks
i             .
 nterv ened F or one th i   ng, North K orea h adnev er h elda
    ori n                    m ni
p ri ty i th e B us h ad i s trati s l                 ore gn
                                         on’ ong f i p ol c        iy
         a—              ore           e
agend at leas t bef Sep tem b r 11. F or anoth er,now i             s
            m    or
not th e ti e f N orth K orea to d       raw w orldattenti b    on y
        ng ts m                                 nc d
m aki i ti e-p rov en prov ocations or i i ents ,w h i h are   c
                 cs         or onti
noneth eless ne e s ary f a c                  low
                                       nuedf ofi       nternati  onal
as s i tanc onto i elf30 F or s ti l anoth er, as Russi s
      s     e         ts .              l                          a’
          b
os tensi ly m od                                 th raw
                  erate res p ons e to U.S. w i d al f       rom th e
                      gh
A B M Treaty m i t i d c                                   s
                             n i ate, N orth K orea’ s tron g
         ti                                th
op p os i on to M D m ay end up w i a c orus of one—h
          l
arguab y th e w ors t s i       on n
                          tuati i th e ey es ofPy ongy ang. In
                          s i ted m i i
s h ort, N orth K orea’ l m i                             i
                                          l tary and dp lom ati     c
op ti                      di                 n elay ng
      ons as to M D w oul l kely res ult i d i tac c i         ti s n
                    th          ted               w th
s ep aratetalks w i th eUni States and i South K orea
ov er th e longer term .

C onclus i                       or
          ons andIm p lications f E as t A s ian
       t
Securi y .

             l ng                s h          t s
    In th e c os i p ages ofth i c ap ter,i i ap p rop ri toate
                  i i                          th
sum up th e fndngs and argum ents w i res p e t to th e c
ques ti         s                     rs n i
        ons rai edat th e outs et. F i t,i l gh t ofth e v ary ing
c             e
 onsequenc s ofU.S. M D on regi             c ty       of
                                    onal s e uri and equally
  i            ti        t y ndv d                t s ri c
dv ers e reac ons to i b i i i ual s tates , i i c ti al to
   d               c fc ef
ad res s th e s p e i i d ense requi   rem ents ofU.S. regi  onal
    e        ri nd
alli s andf e s andth e r c e               th
                             i onc rns w i regardto th eM D
 s          s s                 cs         e aus
i s ue. Th i i all th e m ore ne e s ary b c e— ev en i U.S.f
regi            e         ri nd
     onal alli s and f e s generally s up p ort th e M D
                        l e          e n        iis
p rogram — th ere w i l b nuanc s i p ol c e , s h ad i     es n
 om      tm
c m i en t, and d                n m                on n
                         elay s i i p lem entati i th e r        i
     ti
reac ons.
      c ,             gh     i um ri ed
    Se ond as th e h i ly c rc s c b nature ofth e M D
debate in th e th ree c                                c
                            oun tries — at both p ubli an d
                e                 ndc
gov ernm ental l v el— s trongly i i ates , m ore regular and

                                215
                   c f                                cs
m ore s y s tem ati eforts on th e U.S. p art are ne e s ary to
       n ts
exp lai i M D p lan to regi                      us   i us ons
                              onal s tates . F oc edds c s i
          if                   s l h             ndv d
on th e dferent lev els ofm i s i e t reat to i i i ual s tates
      ons d       on        i om       c ii s
andc i erati ofth e r d es ti p ol t c — th e tw o m os t
 m             ac      ri ng       i ndv d
i p ortant f tors d v i th e r i i i ual res p onses to
                                ng     nt.
M D — w ould be a good s tarti p oi A n i tuti              z
                                                 nsti onali ed
  i us on                 s      n                  ef
ds c s i of th e M D i s ue i regular U.S. d ens e talks
   th ts      e      d e noth er ap p roac enh anc ng m utual
w i i alli s w oul b a                       h       i
     ers       i
und tandng on th e sub c     je t.
         s            ergi s           rd om
    Th i als o und rd th eth i rec m end on,w h i h i    ati        c s
th at th e s ooner th e Uni                      op       th
                                ted States c es w i th e m ajor
  ef             s         c onc rns
d ense and trategi c e ofregi                   onal s tates on M D ,th e
     e t l e o
eas i r i w i l b t tac                      c fc h c
                              kle th e s p e i i tec ni al andev en
  ud           s                 th               l e
b getary i s ues later. W i out a s em b anc ofth ough t,f             or
i          e
 nstanc , on th e f                      b l ty                ng th
                         uture p os s i ii of p os s es s i ei er
 ndv d             ed
i i i ualiz M D as s ets or th os e of an i tegrated          n
N orth eas t A s i  an M D s y s tem , th e regi    onal s tates w oul  d
conti            i                    h ng th gni i ant
      nue th e r ow n soul-s earc i w i s i fc w as te of
    i c             ud                   e i         ow
p ol ti al andb getary res ourc s l kely d n th e road F or        .
                      na ac                         c fc
anoth er,th e C h i f tor,andm ore s p e i i ally A m eri a’         c s
     ers       i        th      na
und tandng w i C h i on th e M D i s ue s h ould b     s    ,           e
 onv
c ey ed to regi       onal s tates s o as to allay th e r c ei onc rns
             na’             al       ti
about C h i s p otenti reac ons to th e M D i s ue andto    s
    i         c v
th e r res p e ti e b l             e        s            e      c
                        i ateral ti s . Th i w ouldb p arti ularly
p erti                   n                       ti al
      nent as C h i a enters th e cri c p eri of th e         od
generati            h       n       ers p
            onal c ange i lead h i andofp roje ti b ni     c ng e gn
 m                       d
i ages to th e outs i e w orld      .
                  le        s i      oub n        c s
    F ourth ,w h i th ere i l ttle d t i A m eri a’ needand
determ i      on or                               b
          nati f a M D p lan, a m ore s ensi le andm ore
b       e            h s cs             op    th
 alanc dap p roac i ne e s ary to c e w i oth er ty p es of
internati   onal and regi     onal s ources of th reat. A s th e
           e           ks         v d
Sep tem b r 11 attac h av ev i i ly s h ow n,a f            c
                                                 uller s p e trum
ofth reats to nati          c ty s              er
                   onal s e uri i now th eord ofth ed f     ay or
m os t nati     n             .       ncud , ut
           ons i th ew orld Th ey i l e b arenot li i       m ted
      i      c            h     c        ks   ord
to, b ologi al and c em i al attac , b er/h om eland
    i
in f ltration , com p u ter v irus es , an d in ternational
terrori m . 31 In b
         s                  ,
                       rief a v i  able M D p rogram s h ould


                                 216
 om                                     om         ef
c p lem ent, n ot s u p p lant, oth er c p elling d en s e
requirem ents ofa nation.
     Fi         t s    te, ut        ,
        nally ,i i tri b true to note th at M D ulti ately    m
i        s            e oth
 ntend to enh anc b U.S. s e uri and  c ty        regi           ii y
                                                      onals tab l t .
    i                  d e
N e th er goal s h oul b p urs uedat th e exp ense ofth e oth er.
                           s                          tm
N or s h ould th e M D i s ue be taken as a li us tes t f          or
         ng
“m aki or b      reaki              i              ons p
                       ng” U.S. b lateral relati h i s w i i    th ts
     e         ri nd n
alli s and f e s i th e regi                    ng
                                      on. B arri any unf     ores een
  ev
d elop m ents or regi                ks t s e nly
                          onal s h oc ,i i c rtai p os s i le fb or
U.S. regi             e        ri nd          jus       i
             onal alli s andf e s to ad t th e r res p e ti e    c v
  ef
d ense requi                or
                 rem ents f th e s ake ofregi               ii y
                                                  onal s tab l t and
            ty                             s        l
p ros p eri . W h eth er or not th eM D i s uew i lop en up a new
        b l t or     s          ll nge on a renew edefort and
p os s i ii y f th i goal w i h i                            f
               ers
m utual und tandng on b i                d
                                  oth s i es ofth e A s i     ii.
                                                         a-Pacfc

E N D NOTE S - C H A PTE R 7
    1. “M i              orm
           litary tran s f ati        s        y
                                 on” i th e ke w ordof th e Quad nni re al
                                         d y
D e e e Re i w ( R)Re ort releas e b th e Pentagon on Septem b r
   f ns     v e QD           p                                              e
 0, 001. For th eop erati
3 2                                     th
                          onal goals of em ii                 orm   on,
                                               l tary tran s f ati s eep.
 0                           e       m
3 ofth e QD R Re ort. Se als o K i B urger,“QD R Rep ort B lurs E d
                   p                                                       ges
        cfc           ”                               tob r
on Sp e i i Strategy , Janes D e e e W e kly , Oc e 10, 2
                               ’   f nc      e                    001, p . 10;
And           h            m
    rew K oc , “QD R A i s to Transf                     e ”
                                          orm US F orc s , Janes D e e e
                                                                   ’    f nc
                   2 001,p. 6 .
W e kly ,A ugus t 2 ,2
   e

        .
      2 F or a f          i us on                                 a
                  uller ds c s i ofU.S. M D andE ast A s i n se uri ,s ec ty       e
     c               ne,     h
M i h aelD . Sw ai Rac elM . Sw anger,and                                  ,
                                                    Takash iK aw akam i Jap an
                                                 c
andB alli i M i l D e e ,Santa M oni a: RA N D C orp orati 2
             st c ssi e f nse                                            on, 001;
                  e ros d
E v an S. M ed i , e .,B alli t c M i s i e D e e
                                  s i      s l      f nse and N orth eas t A s i an
Se uri y : V i w s f
    c t         e     rom W ash i            i ng,and Toky o, M onterey : Th e
                                 ngton, B e ji
                     ati
Stanley Found on and th e M onterey In s titute of Internati                   onal
Stude ,2              c             n
        i s 001; M i h aelJ. G ree and      Tob F. D alton,A s i n Re c i
                                               y                   a     a t ons t o
                     f ns ,             y s                     ,
U.S. M i s ie D e e e N B R A nal s i , V ol. 11, N o. 3 N ov e b r 2
           s l                                                         m e 000;
      ate
Th e r M i s i e D e e s i t e A s i
               s l       f nse n h                ii                    ng
                                                         g on, W orki G roup
                                            a-Pac f c Re i
                4
Report N o. 3 ,W as h i    ngton,D C : A H e           m
                                            nry L . Sti s on C enter,June2     000.
See als o th ec e           e                                          p or
                  onf renc p ap ers p res entedat th e “Partners h i f Peac       e:
Bui i                               ty
      ldng L ong-term Securi C oop erati                  n
                                                     on i North eas t A s ia,”
                                      p c
h ttp:/ / w w w .nautilus .org/ nuke oli y / w orks h op s / s h angh ai-01/ p ap er
                            a
s .h t l, and“E ast A s i n Regi
      m                                       uri y
                                    onal Sec t F utures : Th eater M i s i     s le
     en       m i ai         ”
D ef s e I p l c t ons , h ttp :/ / w w w .nautilus .org/ nuke ol c / TM D -
                                                                     p iy
        e nc / nd x.h
C onf re e i e tm l.

     . e or         e    di
    3 Se ,f exam p l ,M e e ros ,p . i.

                                       217
                    na’ fcal        ti                      ri s
      4 . F or C h i s of i i p os i ons on M D ,s ee a s e e ofs tatem ents b    y
        as     or
A m b s ad Sh a Z          ukang at th e PRC F ore gn M i s try ’ w e p age
                                                      i        ni     s    b       ,
          m
w w w .f p rc    .gov .c See als o Yan Xuetong, “TM D Roc ng Regi
                        n.                                          ki         onal
        ii ”
Stab l ty , K ore Journal ofD e e A naly s i V ol. 11,No. 1,Sum m er
                      an               f nse          s,
                           e
19 9 9 , p p . 6 7-86 ; Xi W enqi                            w     ”
                                   ng, “US TM D andTai an, Int rnati    e      onal
                              al
Strat g c St i s , Seri N o. 5 7, July 2
        ei        ud e                                          5 1;     a p ng,
                                                   000, p p . 2 -3 Xi L i i
                   or            v       uri     n
“Pros p ects f C oop erati e Sec ty i E as t A s i From C h i   a:             nese
           c v ”                        at                   p or
Pers p e ti es , a pap er pres ented th e“Partners h i f Peac : Buidng  e     li
L ong-term           Security C oop eration in N orth eas t A s ia,”
                                       p c
h ttp:/ / w w w .nautilus .org/ nuke oli y / w orks h op s / s h angh ai-01/ p ap er
                    n, Th      fc                       ne
s .h t l; L i B i “ e E fe ts of N M D on C h i s e Strategy , Janes
      m                                                                   ”       ’
Int l i e eRe i w ,M arc 2
     e l g nc        v e        h 001,p p . 4 9 -5 2.

    5 . Th ef               oop   v         h as d
              our areas ofc erati e res earc b e on th e A ugus t 19 9 9
             um         ers     i   e
M em orand ofUnd tandng b tw een Jap an andth eUni State    ted        s
            gh                one      nf d            v    e
are th e li tw eigh t nos e c , th e i rare s ensor, ad anc dki   neti c
           ,    s c    s             on.
w arh ead and e ond tage p rop uls i SeeD e e ofJap an 19 9 9 ,p . 84 .
                                             f nse

            c           ne     s olleagues h av e ofere b f th e m os t
     6 . M i h ael Sw ai andh i c                   f d y ar
  etai e
d l dexam i            on             s
                   nati ofth e Jap ane e b       rati
                                          ureauc c actors on th e M D
 s                 ne t                                 f ns , s    h
i s ue. SeeSw ai ,e al.,Jap an andB alli t cM i s i eD e e e e p . c ap .
                                          s i    s l
3 .

           urth e d ls ,s eeStep h e A . C am b ,“Th eUni State
   7. F or f     r etai             n          one           ted       s
   Th           s l       f nc n              a,                  9
and eatre M i s i eD e e ei North -eas t A s i ” Surv i al,V ol. 3 ,N o.
                                                       v
 ,
3 Autum n 19 9 7,p p . 6 8-6 9 .

          s om       s     b                     m     n
    8. Th i c m ent i attri utedto Satosh i M ori oto i Plut um ,
                                                            oni
     3      ng 001,i Jap anes e.
No. 3 ,Spri 2       n

                       e    i      s 5      s ls     e l          ,
    9 . Th e m os t rec nt fgure i 3 0 m i s i e . Se B i l G ertz “C h ina
Inc            s l          ”
   reas es M i s i e Th reat, W ash i                      8 001.
                                     ngton Ti e ,A ugus t 2 , 2
                                             m s

                         s        Th      r s l         en      w  s
   10. Th om as J. C h ri tensen,“ eate M i s i eD ef s e andTai an’
  c ty ”
Se uri , Orb s ,V ol. 4 4 ,No. 1,W i
              i                      nter 2000,p . 89 .

                 w    s a t ons to M D are bes t analy z i Th e H enry L .
      11. Tai an’ re c i                                ed n
    m
Sti s on C enter, Th eater M i s i e D e e s i t e A s ia-Pa i i Re on,
                                 s l    f nse n h            c f c gi
es p . p p . 4 1-6 0.

                n   an
    12 Quoted i B ri H s u, “M ilitary Say s US Nati        s l
                                                    onal M i s i e
   ens         on,
D ef e an Op ti ” Tai e Ti e ,July 18,2
                     p i m s             001.

      .    e ros
    13 M edi ,p . 19 .

               es
   14 . A seri of i          e       th ef      fcals and s e uri
                      nterv i w s w i d ens e of i i           c ty
            ond t d n    w      ndc te     s
analy s ts c uc e i Tai an i i a th ere i n o s eri         l c e ate
                                                    ous p ubi d b

                                       218
               s   ,     c s                 ed
on th e M D i s ue w h i h i s till regard as an arc             s
                                                             ane i s ue of
           c
tech nologi al andm i                       e        p i     c m e 001.
                     litary nature. Interv i w s ,Tai e , D e e b r 2

                     c nc      oc             e            l tary s i
     15 . F or a s uc i t y et f us edov erv i w ofth e m ii             on
                                                                     tuati on
th ep eni            e2                               l tary Si
           nsula,s e “ 000 Rep ort to C ongres s : M i i              on
                                                                tuati on th e
             ni      a”          e
K orean Pe nsul , Sep tem b r 12 2                 l
                                      , 000,av ai able at w w w .d f nse i
                                                                     e e l nk.
   l w
m i / ne s / Se 2            a09 2
                 p 000/ kore 12 000.h tm l.

                                        ; w
    16 . SeeC h os un I b June16 ,19 9 3 N e York Ti e ,June1,19 9 4 .
                       l o,                         m s

                                    l
     17. See Si a Journal, A p ri 8, 19 9 9 , p p . 6 4 -6 5 . F or an objectiv e
                  s
      s                             i              n                   s
as s e s m ent on th e relativ e w e gh t of M D i South K orea’ ov erall
 ef n           s                           m
d e s e need s ee Th e H enry L . Sti s on C enter, Th e e M i l    at r    ssi e
   f ns s, s          3 9
D e e e e p . p p . 3 -3 .

                           w               n-d p    i u ons
    18. In Japan andTai an as w ell,any i e th ds c s s i ov e M D r
     onfnedto a s m all group ofs e uri exp erts i s i e andouts i e of
are c i                             c ty           n d             d
    r        c v
th ei res p e ti e gov ernm ents andge         o                     dr
                                      nerally d not extendto th e w i e
    lc                                nt.        e      p i     cm e
pubi or th rough out th e gov ernm e Interv i w s , Tai e , D e e b r
2                      ne, t
 001. See als o Sw ai e al.

                               al      s        v l          or
    19 . One ofth e m os t v oc NG Os i th e C i i N etw ork f a Peaceful
          e t      b
K orea. Se i s w e p age at w w w .p eacekore            c s       l l n
                                              a.org,w h i h i av aiabe i
 oth
b K orean andE n gli .    sh

     0.                p      1-2
    2 G reen andD alton, p . 2 5 .

      1.          k                    d
     2 W ook-Sh i C h ung, “W h y Sh oul W e O p p os e M D ?” a pap er
                            iy
p resented at th e K ID A Pol c F orum on “Th e M D Plan and [    Our]
   c ty           ”             ,   y  , 001,p . 17.
Se uri Interes t, K ID A ,Seoul Jul 13 2

      2        fc al              on y                    e        ni
    2 . Unofi i trans lati b th e auth or. D ef ns e M i s ter C h o
           ’       m                    s     ti
Seong-Taes s tate ents on th eROK ’ p os i on on NM D andTM D at th e
2            s onal s es s i ofth e ROK Nati
 18th p rov i i             on                               l      b
                                              onal A s s em b y ,F e ruary 20,
2              m         i             ore gn    ni         fcal
 001. In a s i ilar v e n, an ROK f i m i s try ofi i argues th at
                                 m z      b neft            i ty
South K orea s h ould m axi i e th e “ e i of am b gui ” unti M D       l
 easi ii s                ut                              f     n
f b l ty i p rov en,b noneth eles s s up p ort U.S. eforts i th eend Se  . e
    n,                         i ati   or
Sh i K ak-Soo,“Th e Im p l c ons f South K orea ofth eUni dState    te       s
   s l     f nse, N e A s i V ol. 8,No. 4 ,W i
M i s ieD e e     ” w           a,               nter 2  001,p p . 178-207.

       3.                  gh
     2 Th ey are F i ter- E xp erim en tal, A ttack H elicop ter-
        m                      ng  rc t-E          m
E xperi ental, E arly W arni A i raf xp eri ental, Surf e-to-Ai  ac     r
   s le-E xp eri ental and K orean D estroy er- E xp eri ental-III,
M i si              m      ,                                   m
       ci l         e    m
res p e t v e y . Se Sh i Jae H oon, “                      c
                                      South K orean Proje ts M ay F ac  e
                     ”                           l
Furth er D elay s , Janes D e e e W e kly ,A p ri 19 , 2
                           ’  f nc   e                           0;
                                                        001,p . 2 D arren
      , South K orea A nnounc s Re ordH i B ud ” Janes D e e e
L ake “                          e  c        gh       get,       ’  f nc



                                     219
W e kly ,July 4 , 2
   e                               n,         i            ,
                   001; Joh n L arki “D ogfgh t ov er Seoul ” F ar E ast rn
                                                                        e
Econom i Re i w ,July 5 ,2
         c v e                001,p p . 16 -18,20.

       4                                                 qui
     2 . F or a rep ort th at South K orea plan s to ac re M K -4 1 V L S,s ee
h ttp :/ / w w w .s tate.gov / p / e / rls / prs/ c m ?d i =2 6 . For South
                                    ap             f    oc d 85
K orea’ i           uci
         s ntrod t on ofth e 3                                  oc
                                     00-km -range A TA C M S B l k-IA SRB M ,
                                     002
s ee D ong-a Ilb January 5 ,2 ,p . A 2
                   o,                           .

      5        etais                         lc   e i            na
     2 . F or d l on th e South K orean pubi p erc p t on ofC h i and
 ts                ni         e           m
i role on th e p e ns ula, s e Taeh o K i ,“South K orea anda Ri i s ng
    na:       e ons      i i s nd            ” n
C h i Perc p ti ,Pol c e , a Pros p ects, i Ian Jam es Storey and
      e      e d
H erb rt Ye ,e s.,Th eD ragon A w ake Pe e t ons andPros p e t ofth e
                                       s: rc p i               cs
                     on:
C h i Th re L ond C urz f
    na        at,                       om ng n 002
                              on, orth c i i 2 .

        6           n-d p   i us on
      2 . F or an i e th dsc s i ofth e v ari  ous p urp os es ofth e North
             s ls                 n                       s les
K orean m i s i e ,s eeC h ung M i L ee,“North K orean M i s i : Strategi c
       i ati          Pol c           ”
Im pl c on s and i y Res p ons es , Pac f cRe i w ,V ol. 14 ,No. 1,2
                                          ii    v e                    001,
            0; d m                     I    s ls ”
p p . 85 -12 i e .,“North K oreaand ts M i s i e , F ar Eas t rn E c
                                                              e     onom ic
                  9          6
Re i w ,July 2 ,19 9 9 ,p . 2 .
    v e

      7.
     2 Rod     ong Sh i un,N orth K orea,A ugus t 15 , 2
                        nm                                      lable at
                                                        001,av ai
h ttp:/ / w w w .h ani o.kr/ 2
                      .c      0010816 .

     8. b d                         s fcal                e
    2 I i ., andNorth K orea’ of i i announc m ents v i C h os un  a
            w C                                                      c i
C entral N e s ( h os un jungang tongs h i andPy ongy ang B roadas t ng
                                            n)
( ongy ang b
 Py                      ,
              angs ong) at h ttp :/ / w w w .h ani.co.kr/ 20010805 .

      9                ri               s us
     2 . See “Transc p t: Pow ell D i c s es K orean Peni           s l
                                                         nsula, M i s i e
    ens ,
D ef e ” W as h i           l,       89       7, 001,av ailable at w w w .
                    ngton Fi e N o. 2 0,July 2 2
us i o.s tate.gov .
    nf

     0.        on               d
    3 L . G ord Flake h as n ote th ec                        ie
                                       urrent N orth K orean dl m m a
  e       ts      to i ow    n     os or ts        ati     ti s gh
b tw een i need l el w h e th ec t f i p rov oc v eac on i h i
     ts          om      ng e
andi equally c p elli ne dto d                      i or
                                   raw w orldattent on f th es ake of
internati           s    e    i. e s                   s
         onal as s i tanc anda d Se h i “North K orea’ Op tion s A fter
         ”                           3 001.
Sept. 11, Pac t No. 4 7,Nov em ber 2 ,2
              Ne

      1.     e v         y s
    3 A p erc p ti es tud i av ailableon th ei   ssueofb     i
                                                        alancng M D w ith
     r ef
oth e d ens e requi                  c            H               M s l
                   rem ents . See M i h ael E . O’ anlon,“B ey ond i s i e
    ens ,                       e,
D ef e ” B rooki Pol c B ri f No. 86 ,A ugust 2
                 ngs    iy                            001.




                                     2
                                    20
     PA R T III: IM PROV E M E NTS IN PL A
 C O N V E N TIONA L C A PA B IL ITIE S: FORC E
PROJE C TION A N D A IR FORC E L OG ISTIC S




                      2
                     21
                         C H A PTE R 8



  ROUG H B UT RE A D Y FORC E PROJE C TION:
A N A SSE SSM E NT OF RE C E NT PL A TRA INING

                       Sus an M . Puska



      uc i
Introd t on.
                               1
                                           nes          s b
     Ov er th e las t 3 y ears , th e C h i e Peop le’ L i erati   on
         PL
A rm y ( A )h as s i fc                  v     e ts
                       gni i antly ad anc di n ear-p eri h ery p
p ow er p rojection cap ability th rough con certed
       m         on            ap
exp eri entati and ad tati of m od     on                    i
                                                    ern w arfgh ting
 ap b l t e uri                     as          ni
c a i i i s d ng th reat-b ed trai ng and exerc s es             i
am ong targetedarm y , nav y , ai andm i s i e f e .2 Th i
                                       r,         s l orc s         s
       e e as
exp eri nc b e now reac es i    h                        ts
                                      nto all s ev en of i M i litary
Regi ( Rs )3 and nc ud a grow i num b r ofy ounger,
     ons M        ,       i l es             ng        e
i         v
 nnov ati em ii  l tary th i               i
                            nkers andfgh ters w h o arev ers edi    n
     ern
m od op erati      onal art.
      A gai               al                l                ls
            nst a p otenti th reat th at c os ely res em b e th e
    v      e ap b l t e
ad anc d c a i i i s of th e U.S. m ii      l tary , th e PL A h as
s h ow n a d   eterm i nati           c           nc
                           on, p arti ularly s i e K os ov o, to
           e ts onfd e            om          i
enh anc i c i enc and c p etenc es w i th e m eans  th
                e                             l l.
andres ourc s th at are p res ently av ai ab e To m axi i e      m z
           t
w h at i h as n ow , th e PL A h as m ore c e               ly
                                                 onc rted us ed
      ni                 i   ng
trai ng as th e w arfgh ti lab                 n     c         ev
                                     oratory i w h i h to d elop
          v                               or ts
creati e w ay s to com p en s ate f i ow n relati e                v
                     le t          v
w eaknes s es , w h i i aggres s i ely andi             v
                                                nnov ati ely s eeks
                     t                 i
w ay s to exp loi th e v uln erab lities of an ad an ced   v         ,
 nf
i orm ati         ep    ent
             on-d end op p onent.
    D uri ng 2             ni   n       c
              000-01 trai ng, i p arti ular, th e PL A ’  s
     i     ng   ni     m          m zng ts f
w arfgh ti trai ng ai edat m axi i i i ofensi e and v
  ef    v
d ensi e op erati        th n         s
                  ons w i i th e PL A ’ area of op eration,


                                 2
                                23
 nc udng ts      ti        p               om i   on
i l i i m ari m e p eri h ery ,th rough a c b nati of
         as    l tary trai ng andcv ii augm entati
th reat-b edm ii          ni      i l an           on.
                        s h              nes          ev
    Th eauth or ofth i c ap ter exam i th es ed elop m ents
 n                   ii y      nt
i term s of m ob l t ; joi op erati                  s c       s l
                                           ons; logi ti s ; m i s i e
          ons oas            ti            ons om
op erati ; c tal/m ari m e op erati ; c m uni ati          c ons,
elec       c
    troni w arf          E ,
                  are ( W ) and C om puter N etw ork A ttac        k
 C      ;         c al
( N A ) ands p e i op erati                      als
                                ons. Th e m ateri us edf th ior     s
exam i       on          m    l      nes
       nati are p ri ari y C h i e nati        onal andregi     onal
   l tary new s p ap ers ,alth ough s om e rec nt journal arti les
m ii                                          e                 c
andb                       e n onsulted
       ooks h av e als o b e c           .

B ackground.

                             en          c       y       c
     Th elas t3y ears h av eb e a p arti ularly d nam i p eri od
                ern z on of th e PL A . Th e res u lts of
in th e m od i ati
        m        on      i      on uri         s m
exp eri entati and nnov ati d ng th i ti eh av eb e          en
                n                        on
sum m edup i th e s ev enth generati ofm ii                 ni
                                                 l tary trai ng
and exam i        on                  c     l e m
              nati program s , w h i h w i l b i p lem ented
d ng 2 .4 Th es e p rogram s w i c e
  uri       002                        ll onc ntrate on s ev en
                  ,               r orc s       c
areas — ground nav al, and ai f e ; Se ond A rti l ry ;    le
   i    fc          h               ts               ts
s c enti i res earc andtes t uni ; res erv e uni ; andth e
Peop le’ A rm edPol c .5
          s           ie
         ng                             op
    D uri th e las t 3 y ears , th e s c e ofm ii            i
                                                 l tary exerc s es
           iy nc              nc ud           -s c
h as s teadl i reas edto i l e out-of e tor M R f e         orc s
p erf     ng nc
     orm i i reas i           om                 n
                       ngly c p lex tas ks i p arallel and
 nc
i reas i           nt
         ngly joi op erati                 ti    i i d
                             ons. M ari m e (ndv i ual and
    t)     ni           en                 uri
uni trai ng h as b e stres s ed d ng th i ti e and   s m
  ul natedi m ajor near p eri h ery exerc s es d ng th e
c m i          n                    p            i      uri
s um m ers of 2  000 and 2   001 near D ongs h an Is land i      n
                na        te    w
s outh ern C h i op p os i Tai an.
             n
    Th en i th e f    all, th e PL A s ough t to s h ow c e i as    ts
   c     i             n        y ng i e
ac om p l s h m ents i ap p l i s cenc and tec nology to h
     ni                  nt y ond ti onc
trai ng up to th at p oi b c uc ng c urrent d l s and        ri l
       i          tob r -16 000.6 F orem os t am ong th os e
exerc s es on Oc e 13 , 2
w as a “grandm ii                     d             i       nc
                   l tary s h ow ” s ai to be th e frs t s i e 19 6 4 ,
     c                         i ng
w h i h w as h eld near B e ji at th e f     oot of th e Yansh an
M oun tai . 7 Ji g Z i , as th e C en tral M ilitary
           n       an      em n


                                 2
                                24
         s on C             rm       n   c            i ng
C om m i s i ( M C ) C h ai an, i s p e ted th e B e ji
       i
exerc s e on Oc                  s       i            d
                  tober 13. Th i exerc s e w as s ai to
  em              m     l ef      v
d on s trate p ri ari y d en s i e m eas ures to c ounter
            h            al     il e        c      s
s tealth tec nology ,aeri surv e l anc andre onnai s anc ,e
     i on       d
p rec s i gui ed w eap ons , and E W . It als o em p loy ed
v ari      onc alm ent and d c p ti m eas ures , s uc as
     ous c e                  e e on                  h
 i raredd c s , to i
“ nf         e oy ”         ere th
                       nterf w i enem y op erati  ons and
c e c b op erati .8
  onc al om at          ons
    C onc urrently , s elec                ts
                           ted ground uni trai          n
                                                  ned i Inner
         i      l            ts ond ted ni n
M ongol a,w h i enav al uni c uc trai ng i th eB oh ai
             c           le          c s l orc s
Sea,andSe ondA rti l ry s trategi m i s i e f e exerc s ed   i
                                        9
 n ln          nc n
i Jii Prov i e i north eas t C h i                      n
                                     na. E ls ew h ere i C h i na
       tob r ,               u
on Oc e 13 a C h engd M R uni c uc    t ond teda s abotage
    d
rai again s t v ital en em y targets , w h ile a n av al
     c
h eli op ter-b             ne
              orne M ari uni attact       ked an enem y rear
 om
c m and c                    i ti ed    le
             enter. PL A dgi z arti l ry , arm ored c s ,   orp
         c    z nf             em
andm e h ani edi antry d onstrati                         ,
                                          ons w ere h eld w h i le
       i        c
th e “frs t suc es s f          -dre ti       rb
                      ul” m ulti i c on ai orne op erati       on
 i l i
(nc udng p ers onnel andgear, roc                      c
                                      kets , andv eh i les )w as
c uc agai an enem y on th e m arc .10
 ond ted         nst                          h
                                          ng
    Th rough out 2000-01, th e N anji and G uangz ou     h
M iil tary Regi     M
                ons ( Rs )led e PL A f th e r i
                               th        or  i nnov ations in
     ni
trai ng andop erati            nc oth M Rs p lay key roles i
                       ons. Si e b                          n
         al orc       c on        ns    w
p otenti f ep roje ti agai t Tai an,as w ellas i th e nto
             na        i      ni
South C h i Sea,th e r trai ng ap p ears to h av eh adgreater
           s                         e
em p h as i andp erh ap s ,res ourc s .
    A 2                                     h         s    ni
         000 as s es s m ent of th e G uangz ou M R’ trai ng
    l cs                     ts    ts     e n
refe t th e p rogres s i uni m ad i trai ng d ng    ni    uri
2                               th         ni n         oc
  000-01. Th erep ort noted at M R trai ng i 19 9 9 f us ed
      om
on c p any andb               on          ni         ng 000, i
                        attali lev el trai ng. D uri 2         t
                       ni     n    nt
p rogres s edto trai ng i Joi Op erati              uri      c
                                              ons, d ng w h i h
                          r      e
A rm y , N av y , andA i F orc uni f                er gh
                                      ts ough t und h i -tec  h
c i ons.11
 ondti
       s                        s                h e
   Th i as s es s m ent als o ob erv ed th at ac i v em ents i n
    n n
trai i g d                     ep     ed       n
             urin g 19 9 9 d en d on i n ov ati s i     on     n
    p
equi m en t. In 2     000, h ow ev er, ov er on e- h alf of all
i        on                         s             on
 nnov ati s related to m eth od of op erati s , m ii      l tary

                               2
                              25
                       s         ni       c      i
th eory , and m eth od of trai ng, ac om p l s h m ents th at
  ep                  ii y                          onc p
d endup on th e ab l t ofp ers onnel to ap p ly c e ts and
       d          l      ni     n              h
new i eas . W h i e trai ng i th e G uangz ou M R s ol ed  v
 c               lm      n          uri
“ om m on” p rob e s i 19 9 9 , d ng 2      000 th e M R uni ts
c                     om i ated and i p ortant p rob e s .
 ould s olv e m ore c p l c               m               lm
                                 ni     h e           am
Furth er,m os t ofth e19 9 9 trai ng ac i v em ents c ef   rom
 om at       ts
c b uni ; w h i e i 2                            ty
                      l n 000, th e m ajori of trai ng    ni
ac i v em ents w erei joi logi ti s andarm am ent.12
   h e                 n nt       s c
             i      nt        ons
     Regardng joi op erati ,th e grad                ii ati
                                            uatedm ob l z on
             G                      es ri ed
res p onse ( M R) as s es s m ent d c b p re-2              c
                                                  000 Serv i e
relati       n
        ons i m ii              i          ri nd
                   l tary exerc s es as “f e ly s up p ort” or
              orm     e                   ati
“gues t p erf anc s ” th rough negoti ons . B y 2    000, th e
     ni                         h        s            c
trai ng am ong th e G uangz ou M R’ th ree Serv i es w as
                        nt
as s es s edas m ore joi andextend f            ndv d
                                       ed rom i i i ual lev el
     ni
trai ng up to op erati            ti al,       h c
                         onal,tac c andtec ni al trai ng,ni
and fnally ,to uni trai ng.13
      ,i              t    ni
                               h
    A lth ough th e G uangz ou M R and th e N anji M R  ng
     ni                                v    m
trai ng h av e been m os t exten s i e, i p rov em ents i      n
     ni      th n              i
trai ng w i i th e oth er fv e M Rs ,as w ell as th e Strategi c
Roc            e                 e n gni i ant, p arti ularly
     ket F orc s , h av e als o b e si fc               c
       -se tor                           ros
out-of c s u p p ort ands up p ort to c s - s ea op erati   ons,
     c          en
w h i h h av e b e stres s ed th rough out all s ev en m ilitary
     ons
regi .
           ldng
      B ui i on th e2             ori                 kes
                          000 p ri ty on “th rees tri and ree   th
              14
  ef        ,             ni
d ense ” PL A trai ng andop erati                     ori e uri
                                             onal p ri ti s d ng
2 001 c e                on     d      ii y         ons 15 nc udng
           onc ntrated rap i m ob l t op erati , i l i
c b us e ofh ei op ters ;16 em ergenc logi ti s s up p ort;17
  om at               lc                      y     s c
s p e i op erati ;18 s ealandng andc s - s eaop erati
      c al          ons              i       ros                ons;19
m ari m e d ni (
        ti         e al anti s ub ari and b oc
                             -     m    ne         l kad ) 0 ai
                                                           es ; 2
                                                                      r
c b ands up p ort;21 m ob le m i s i e op erati ; andE W
  om at                           i     s l            ons
an d c     ounterm eas u res . 22 C ov er an d c     oncealm en t,
       h         c      ni
p s y c ologi al trai ng to c     ounter b  attle and op erati    onal
                           i     onfd e n
s tres s , and enh anc ng c i enc i PL A equi m ent,         p
op erati                       d tri ,                       .
            onals trategy and oc ne w ere als o s tres s ed B as ed
            e                          f
on C h i f of th e G eneral Staf G eneral F u Quany ou’               s
  i c on,               ni     je ti
dre ti th e trai ng ob c v e d ng 2      uri     001 w as no l  onger
         m          i
to s i p ly “f gh t” a loc regi  al                        er
                                         onal w ar und h i -       gh


                                 2
                                26
   h      c
tec nologi al c     i on   ut i            n”    n
               ondti s , b “fgh t to w i agai s t a
     tati           or orc               on
quali v ely s up eri f eth at w as bas ed U.S. m ilitary
c ab l t e .23
 ap ii i s
                        f               G        ni       or
    In th eG eneralStaf D ep artm ent ( SD )trai ng p lan f
2              ts         c fc                eep      v
  001 PL A uni w ere s p e i i ally as kedto d en ad anc s e
i sc enc and tec nology (
 n i e               h        S&T) trai ng.24 Pri ty w as
                                          ni        ori
     e
p lac don th e f       ng   d nes andtas ks :
                ollow i gui eli

   ?              n i
       Innov ate i l gh t ofac      ondti
                              tual c i ons ;

   ?      h e        d v     e       n i    ng ap i
       A c i v e rap i ad anc m ent i fgh ti c ac ty ;

   ?                   e          ty   fc
       Furth er up grad th e quali ofofi ers andm en;

   ?          y        h               ni
       A p p l res earc results to trai ng;

   ?                    h
       D eep en res earc on m ilitary th eory ;

   ?                  y  v                on   on
       C los ely s tud ad ers ary op erati al c cep ts ,
            p                            ev
       equi m ent, and w eap onry and d elop c  ounter-
       m easures ;25

   ?      c
       A c eleratei        on n   ni
                   nnov ati i trai ng;

   ?                   s c       i       ni
       C arry out reali ti ,w arl ke trai ng;

   ?                        om           m               i
       E xp andth e us e ofc p uters ,s i ulators ,andonl ne
           ni
       trai ng; and  ,

   ?                    f    n   nt
       E xert greater efort i Joi Operati        ni
                                         ons trai ng.
           le
     W h i th e G SD 2             ni
                          001 trai ng p lan c    ontinuedto s tres s
                    kes            ef        ” gh
th e “th ree s tri , th ree d enses , ni t trai ng and   ni
         c i                               z .
p h y s i al ftnes s w ere als o em p h as i ed Op erationally , th e
2                c fc
  001 p lan s p e i i ally c      on     ts
                            alled uni to m akegreater eforts   f
                            n
to s olv e p roblem s i th e f                 n           ef
                                      ollow i g areas : d en s e
              on
p enetrati and c         ounter-p enetrati         es    ti
                                              on; d truc on and
c            es     ti
 ounter-d truc on; s ea and ai c        r ontrol; and electroni     c
w arf 26
       are.



                                2
                               27
            n          d
     Fu, i an ad res s to an enlarged p arty c m i        om       ttee
         ng
m eeti ofth eG SD ,s tres s edth at 2            l tary w ork m us t
                                          001 m ii
b b edon th e b i requi
  e as                 as c                     n n attle.”27 H e
                                 rem ent to “w i i b
     d                                    i
s ai th e PL A m us t s trength en studes ofth e i    nternati     onal
si        on, gh        h    al                   i ati
   tuati h i -tec loc w ar,andth e ap p l c on ofrule of
law to m ii                         uri
             l tary m anagem ent d ng 2     001. H e c alledon th e
                   z
PL A to organi e andc            i           f
                             oordnate all eforts betw een uni ,      ts
   h           ad e               h e
s c ools , ac em i s , res earc c nters and tes t uni . H e     ts
urged th at th e p roces s of tran s f        orm ing res earch
    c      i            nto i i s       ni                i
ac om p l s h m ents i p ol c e ,trai ng,w ar-readnes s ,and
  om at                   e c           .
c b s trength b ac elerated H e als o s tres s ed th e
 m            e       i e           h
i p ortanc of s c enc andtec nology to enh anc c b         e om at
  ap ii y                          re         F
c ab l t th rough out th eenti A rm ed orc s . H ece         alled   on
                                                    on
th e PL A to en h an ce com m an d an d c trol, Joi t                n
           ons           om at f c v
Op erati , and c b efe ti enes s , and s tres s ed th e
 m             e          ni                    e
i p ortanc of trai ng a large num b r of “new -ty p e”
h i -quali m i i
    gh          ty     l tary p ers onnel. 28 Th e M arc 2   h 001
N ati                s              d
       onal Peop le’ C ongres s ad eda s ense ofurgenc to th ey
        to      erni e
need m od z th e PL A to c uc “m ii ond t       l tary s truggle” as
s oon as p os s i le.29
                  b

     d          s                       , r,
Rap i ,L ong D i tance M obility : L and A i andSea.

     M ii           ni     ond ted uri
         l tary trai ng c uc d ng 2                              z
                                               000-01 em p h as i ed
             or      d      i i y ros          i      e y r,
th eneedf rap i m ob l t ac s long ds tanc s b ai s ea,
            . r                  or
andland A i m ov em ent,f exam p le,c          ontinually s tres s ed
                  r    d
long-range ai rai s andv ari                r om at s ons. In
                                     ous ai c b m i s i
     d
m i -M arc 2                     ng r       m
             h 001, a Nanji ai regi ent w as h i l gh ted gh i
 or ly ng ,                    ros    i
f f i 3000 km ac s fv e p rov i e to c uc a    nc s       ond t
        c       d                  ar,     d      s ls
surgi al rai on enem y rad gui edm i s i e , andA A A
      ti          ng i               ti             t
p os i ons , us i l v e am m uni on. Th e uni w as c i      redted
                     u
w ith s u cces s f lly p en etratin g en em y electron i            c
interf  erenc , rad trac ng,andgui edm i s i e attac .3
               e     ar       ki             d      s l        ks 0
                  h         c           le       p
In early M arc ,one Se ondA rti l ry equi m ent i s p e tin    c on
      m       Z           an            em
regi ent ( h uang Ji Tuan)d ons tratedi enh anc d      ts          e
      d eli         ap b l t e uri               i n
rap i d v ery c a i i i s d ng an exercs ei w h i h uni     c      ts
   m                   eli              p
s i ultaneous ly d v ered equi m ent to s ev eral launc             h
      ti                    i       e     a gh
p os i ons ov er long ds tanc s v i h i w ay and rai w ay      l
netw orks .31

                                 2
                                28
        i ng             z     nf        ri e
   A B e ji M R m otori ed i antry b gad h eld rap i           d
    ti                      ov
reac ons m aneuv ers th at c ered1,              th n
                                      000 km w i i Inner
       i uri
M ongol a d ng late 2 000. Th es e m aneuv ers als o s tres s ed
 nf      on ounterm eas ures ,c
i orm ati c                          i     op
                                oordnated erati            i
                                                    ons,feld
d ense andc p reh ensi e logi ti s s up p ort.32
 ef    ,     om           v      s c
                  ts                      up     ii      ni
     Res erv euni h av eals o s tep p ed m ob l ty trai ng. On
      l 0, 001,f exam p le,a res erv e regi ent on H ai
A p ri 2 2          or                           m            nan
                        d       ii ati                 l
Is land h eld a rap i m ob l z on and as s em b y exerc s e    i
f        ng                              rew
 ollow i th e releas eofth eE P-3c . It w as rep ortedto b       e
      i                          i           ew     our      nc s
th e frs t ev er res erv e exerc s e h eld b t een f p rov i e
an d one au tonom ous region in s outh C h in a. A ll
             n        fc           c ali e e h c
p re-ap p oi ted of i ers , s p e i z d t c ni al s old ,    iers
  em     i ed
d ob liz s old                               ers           s
                       iers , s quad lead , an d as s i tan ts
             th all         th n
ans w ered ec up w i i 1 h our f                   fc on.
                                          rom noti i ati A m ong
                             s          ng n
th em w ere 16 8 res erv i ts w orki i H ai                  h
                                                  kou, Sh enz en,
andZ uh ai33
       h       .
          s c      ii          c      l e s        al
    L ogi ti s m ob l ty ,w h i h w il b e s enti to s up p ort of
       orc       c on,                    .              h
any f ep roje ti w as als o tes ted In th eG uangz ou M R,
 or                ie om
f exam p le,m ob l c m and c                 ,    logi c
                                    , ontrol and s ti s s up p ort
m od              ev         .                 h
      ules w ere d elop ed Th e G uangz ou M R rep orted        ly
 nv                lli
i es ted tw o m i on y uan d ng 2   uri      000-01 to ref orm its
 om
c m andandc                       ogi c             n      i .
                  ontrol andl s ti s s up p ort i th e feld A t
                d fed                 h
leas t one uni enti i G uangz ou M R G roup A rm y and
  i s on             p         th       ie om
dv i i w ere equi p edw i m ob l c m ands y s tem s th at
 an e i             ld                     th n
c b ds as s em b e andm ov edw i i 1 h our. Th e s am e
    t’ ogi c                             h c              a ii i s
uni s l s ti s andarm am ent tec ni al s u p p ort f c l t e
                  e        i      or i
als o w ere m ad m ob le f feld op erati s . M od   on        ular
b        ks         ev       d         c an
  arrac w ere d elop e , w h i h c ac om m od     c       ate ten
                             or
bu n k s p res u m ably f com m an d an d op eration s
p ers onnel.34

   nt     i               n
Joi Operat ons : A W ork i Progres s .

       nt
    Joi op erati ons conti            ev            y
                           nuedto d elop s low l . Th e PL A
c                                z        ull          al
 onsequently h as not y et reali edth e f p otenti ofjoi      nt
        ons                      s     al
op erati . Noneth eles s , sub tanti p rogres s h as b e     en
     e      c
m ad ,p arti ularly at th e op erati                  h
                                    onal lev el ofeac M i litary
Regi on.

                               2
                              29
    A t leas t th ree p roblem s in h ibit th e PL A ’              s
        orm     on
transf ati to joi op eratint                    ar. rs
                                       ons s o f F i t, th e PL A
   e        nt” n
v i w s “joi i uni                 lexi le             c
                        que andf b term s w h i h allow f         or
 nd
i ep end    ent i              on
                 nterp retati th at und i     erm nes s y nergy of
   f        c    ,        s     s       e
efort. Se ond th ere i res i tanc ,p erh ap s ev en c us ionf on,
                   nt
about w h at “joi op erati     ons” m eans andw h y th ey s h oul  d
  e ond ted nally ,th ec m andandc
b c uc . F i                    om                ontrol ofth e PL A
     er
und a M ii                  on
              l tary Regi s y s tem andan A rm y -d i     om nated
                f                 om i
G eneral Staf p erp etuates c b ned arm s op erati           ons, at
  e                   y               r,
b s t augm ented b p arallel ai nav y , andm i s i e f es l orc s
         ons                   ac l tati
op erati , rath er th an f ii ng joi i         nt ntegrati  on. B ut
PL A lead                ef
             ers and d en s e i    ntellec          c     z
                                           tuals re ogni e th es e
      lm
p rob e s , andap p ear c m iom                h e ng
                                    ttedto ac i v i sufi i fcently
   nt
joi op erati              t            s
               ons to sui th e PL A ’ op erati             s
                                                 onal need .
          d              h                 enh
     To ad res s th es ec allenges and anc und tandnge     ers      i
      nt
ofjoi op erati             th n
                  ons w i i th e PL A , m i                h
                                                 litary s c olars and
 om        ers       ls
c m and p ub i h eds ev eral arti l s andb  ce          ooks on joi  nt
         ons uri
op erati d ng 2        000 and2                   h qi i tor
                                  001. Yang Z i ,drec ofth e
G SD , M i             f rs
           litary A fai D ep artm ent, i late 2  n               3
                                                             000, 5 for
                                        c
exam p le, urged th e PL A to ac elerate c angi f    h     ng rom a
 om i                 om
c b ned arm s c m and s y s tem to a joi op erati      nt           ons
 om                         c s                 al nk
c m ands y s tem , w h i h i an es s enti li to reali i            zng
   nt
joi op erati                                  nt om
               ons. H e arguedth at a joi c m ands y s tem
 oul                  ls
c dnot be es tab i h edat th e las t m i               uri
                                               nute d ng a c s i ,ri s
  ut                 n       e uri           ei
b m us t be p ut i p lac d ng p eac t m e. A lth ough Yang
   s                                     e     s       al
ob erv edth at th e PL A h as m ad s ub tanti p rogres s to
   h e
ac i v e greater joi c          i     on e
                      nt oordnati b tw een Serv i es d ng   c    uri
op erati                 ni                ,                c
         onal lev el trai ng,h e noted all th eServ i es tendto
 i       n if                      e               i
fgh t i df erent w ay s onc an exerc s e b gi s . Yang  e n
      b          s efcenc                 und
attri uted th i d i i y to a f am ental lac of an              k
                                      36
          tati        nt om
“auth ori v e” joi c m and          .
    In a N ati        ensePubi ati enti
              onal D ef       l c on           ,
                                          tled “N ew Th eory
of Joi Op erati , 37 th e auth ors argue th at d p i
       nt           ons ”                             es te
   m l ti s n ts             om i
s i i ari e i i nature to c b ned               nt
                                      arm s ,joi op erations
rep res ents a great, e en radc c ange f th e PL A .3
                         v     i al, h         or           8

             nt         ons                       F   e
Th rough joi op erati ,th ey w rote,th eA rm ed orc s w i ll
    f om            blte
uni y c batcap a i i i s th rough c     i     on    ef
                                    oordnati to d eat th e
enem y .39

                                 3
                                20
            c m e 000,a s y m p os i enti
     In D e e b r 2                    um       tled“W ar Patterns
                       n            y 1s
andW ar Th eory i th e E arl 2 t C entury ” w as h eld i          n
B e ji 4 0 Th e m eeti w as s p ons ored b th e B e ji
    i ng.                  ng                       y          i ng
M ii              on                      c       is
     l tary Regi and th e Strategi Stude D ep artm ent,
    ad
A c em y of M ii              i e A         .
                   l tary Sc enc s ( M S) It w as attend b    ed y
                v
rep res entati es f    rom th e s ev en m i i             on
                                              l tary regi s , th e
N ati            ens        v    ty N       ,
       onal D ef e Uni ers i ( D U) and th e A i F orc     r       e
                    em               i ng           e
C om m and A cad y . Th e B e ji M R C h i f of Staf, Yu      f
             ,     d ov                 ng,      c
C h engh ai p res i ed er th em eeti w h i h w as rep orted      to
             i        n      ti ty
be th e f rs t joi t ac v i h eld betw een th e PL A ’             s
   gh                      c     i s ep
h i es t-lev el s trategi s tude d artm ent and a th eater
  om         .                                ng
c m and Th e p urp os e of th e m eeti w as to p rom ote
         orm
transf ati ofm ion                        c
                          litary s trategi res earc i        om at
                                                     h nto c b
                                                 e
s trength th rough out th e A rm ed F orc s . D ev elop m ent
        s n nt            ons                        c i us
trend i joi op erati w eream ong th etop i s ds c s ed           .
              cm e 9
     On D e e b r 2 , 2                         ng
                              000, th e N anji M ii    l tary Regi  on
      ls               c                               m
p ub i h edan arti le th at als o s tres s edth e i p ortanc of   e
f i a joi op erati
 orm ng          nt          ons c m ands y s tem .4 1 Th e arti le
                                   om                              c
 d fed                      lm           e             om
i enti i s ev eral p rob e s th at c nteredon c m andand
control. Sp ecif c     i ally , it criticiz    ed “f  actionalis m ”
 p        h ali      etw            c             c
( aroc i s m )b een Serv i es . Th e arti le arguedf th e       or
n eed to es tablis h truly s ep arate uni und Joi tts       er      n
Op erati    ons G roup s (      ,n       er
                           JOG ) i ord to eli i              om
                                                  m nate c m and
andc     ontrol interf       e y            ts                c
                      erenc b th e uni ’p arent Serv i es . Th e
      c                           c          d y           d om at
arti le s tres s edth at Serv i es s h oul onl p rov i e c b
s u p p ort and c  oordnati to uni as s i
                         i    on         ts      gned to a JOG .4 2
              ti      i us
Oth er w ri ngs ds c s edth e needto s i fc      gni i antly red e uc
                     om
th e lay ers of c m and c angi  — h        ng f rom a “tree-ty p e”
c m ands truc
  om                ture to a “f lat” one.4 3
         ni     th n             c
    Trai ng w i i all Serv i es of th e PL A h as s tres s ed
    n          on        r               n n     or
joi t op erati s . A i F orce trai i g, f exam p le,
 nc       ngl          z       nt
i reas i y em p h as i edjoi s up p ort to b   oth groundand
       orc s
nav y f e . In M arc 2                    h
                      h 001,a G uangz ou M ii     l tary Regi on
   r       e  ati         m             gh i
A i F orc av i on regi ent w as h i l gh ted f i joi or ts    nt
         ons    s    t s       p       th
op erati . Th i uni i equi p edw i a “new -ty p e fgh ti i    ng
   rc t” p     ab y         7)     ond t
ai raf ( rob l SU-2 to c uc blue w ater c b               om at
           om at    ort s ons
p atrols ,c b es c m i s i ,and i                      i
                                       m litary exerc s es . Th e
     m
regi ent h ad re e            f
                  c ntly s h i ted f         h c
                                    rom tec ni al to tac c  ti al

                                 3
                                21
    ni                     p                 l        h e
trai ng on th e new equi m ent. It rep ortedy h adac i v ed
                    f    v      ef    v ly ng ap b l t
an all-w eath er ofensi e andd ens i e f i c a i i y . Its
 ap ii i s nc ud                tud
c ab l t e i l ed low -alti e and ultra low -alti e     tud
 l ng,          ii y         k
fy i th e ab l t to attac groundtargets at great s p eed   ,
                        on
liv e bom b op erati s , d     eep s ea in tercep tion, an d
                  z
ov er- th e- h ori on air com bat d     uring electron i   c
                            44
c                     E
 ounterm easures ( C M )   .
           ng 000-01, PL A trai ng f us edon Tai an-l ke
     D uri 2                       ni      oc             w      i
   e      os   th n
s c nari w i i all s ev en m ii     l tary regi          ori
                                                 ons. Pri ty w as
   v               ros n        s
gi en to s ea-c s i gs , i lan d s eiz                          c al
                                               ures , an d s p e i
op erati       e nd           i                     as
          ons b h i enem y l nes . Th e th reat-b eds c narie     os
              orc s
em p loy ed f e th at w ere m od                            v
                                          eled on th e ad anc d   e
tech nology of th e U.S. m i                    n      i
                                    litary , i clud n g arm ed
   lc           rui     s ls             s c         c      s
h ei op ters ; c s e m i s i e ; s op h i ti atedre onnai s anc ;   e
        ap                            h
E W c abilities ; s tealth tec nology ; an d exten s i e          v
       ti
m ari m e as s ets .
                           s    n n
     Th e in ten t of th i trai i g s eem s to h av e been
        f — i        t               ts      e e
m ulti old frs t, i gav e PL A uni exp eri nc agai       nst a
     w                                  c       d
Tai an andU.S.-ty p e op p onent, w h i h p rov i eda better
      ers      i                      w
und tandng ofth es trength s and eaknes s es ofp otenti      al
                 c    ,         s c     ni oc             i
op p onents . Se ond m orereali ti trai ng f us edon l kely
   e      os            ui onfd e n                p
s c nari h elp s to b ldc i enc i PL A equi m ent, as
             ef    v         f  v
w ell as d ensi e andofens i e op erati   ons. F inally , m ore
       s c      ni
reali ti trai ng exp os es PL A w eaknes s es th at c b an e
                 d     e ore tual c b
s olv edor av oi edb f ac          om at.

     s is         blt
L ogi t c : F lexi i i y andF orw ardSup p ort.

                    n         nt     s c
     Progres s i th e Joi L ogi ti s Sy s tem b neftedfe i        rom
                                   on,      c
th e s tres s on w ar p rep arati w h i h rev ealedth e needf       or
         i        ogi c                       ii y
m ore feldl s ti s s up p ort andm ob l t . D uri 2      ng 000-01,
 on i ati                 om              s
c s ol d on of c m on garri on f ti s , s uc as unc on          h
   l tary h os p i s ,w h i h h av e b e op enedup to c v ii
m ii                 tal      c          en                   i l ans
                                 c            on
as w ell as oth er Serv i es , and c s olid on of key  ati
 om
c m odty i i       tem s , s uc as b
                               h      ulk p etroleum , c   ontinued    .
              y
E m ergenc s toc                      c ual-us e i
                       kage of generi , d            tem s w ere als o
  ev            .                      m           y
d elop ed In s om e cas es , e ergen c s up p lies w ere
integratedi             i l an                        d
                  nto c v ii w areh ous es to p rov i e em ergenc     y

                                  3
                                 22
         ni          s
and trai ng rep leni h m ent to m ii          orc s
                                      l tary f e th rough
c      ted
 ontrac or oth er s u p p ort arrangem ents .
          ng 000-01 em p h as i w as p lac don c p onents of
    D uri 2                       s          e        om
op erati                     s c       h       i
         onal lev el logi ti s , s uc as feld f i     eedng, feld i
     i al              orw
m edc s u p p ort,f ardm ai                  e              te
                                    ntenanc , andon-s i rep ai       r
               y        d      ti                  y
andre-s up p l . Rap i reac on andem ergenc s u p p ort uni         ts
                        d         p
w ere tes tedto p rov i e m ulti le ty p es ofs up p ort to c bom at
 orc s n           om at i        ondti
f e i near-c b feldc i ons . Th rough out th e A i                   r
      e                           c          le          ts
F orc , N av y , A rm y , and Se ond A rti l ry uni , logi ti s  s c
                        z
s up p ort em p h as i ed en h an cem en ts of c      ore s up p ort
        i                  d ti         th n
cap ab lities . In ad i on, w i i th e N an jin g an d
         h             i l an
G uangz ou M Rs ,cv ii augm entati to m i  on                ogi c
                                                     litary l s ti s
                .    s            nc ud
w as s tres s ed Th i s up p ort i l edth e c         i
                                                 oordnatedus e of
      i l an r, and
th ec v ii ai l ,ands ea i ras truc nf                   qui ti
                                               ture; ac s i on of
      ti                   c        i l an
m ari m e v es s els ; ac es s to c v ii telecom m uni ati   c ons;
        qui ti                 e
andac s i on ofm ateri l ands u p p l e .   is
          le      h             s c           s
     W h i m uc ofth e logi ti s s up p ort i m anagedb th ey
                 s c                   G    ,
G eneral L ogi ti s D ep artm ent ( L D ) th e new G eneral
A rm am ent D ep artm ent ( A D ) c
                              G                        4
                                     , reated i 19 9 8,5 p lay ed
                                                n
                        n            ti            s
th e cen tral role i am m uni on rep len i h m en t an d
m ai           e                            ke c
      ntenanc ofw eap ons andarm or. L i Se ondA rti l ry ,  le
             e onc ntratedefort to enh anc th equali and
G A D m ad a c e                  f             e          ty
         s      ts                               oop
exp erti e ofi p ers onnel th rough greater c erati w i   on th
 i l an and m i i
c v ii                      n tuti s . In Nov em b r 2
                    l tary i s ti     on                 e 000,
                         h
G eneral C ao G angc uan, drec     i tor of G A D , noted th at
ref          n                      on     ef        i
    orm s i arm am ent, n ati al d en s e s c en ce and
                             u
tech n ology , an d in d s try now are reach in g an
unp rec d                l n
         e ented lev e i C h i     na. H e enc        d urth er
                                                ourage f
ref orm andi            on, i ng                      i c v
               nnov ati cti a Party andC M C dre ti e to
rai e th e rate ofsuc es s i sc enti i tes ti 4 6
    s                   c    n i       fc      ng.
          tob r 000,G A D h os ted all-A rm y s y m p os i at
    In Oc e 2                      an                      um
                   e
th e A rm oredF orc E ngi       ng ad             om
                         neeri A c em y , c m and b        ed y
                                              n
M ajor G eneral W ang H on gguang, i C h an gxi dan ,    n i
B eijin g, w ith th e s tated p urp os e of en h an cin g
c p reh ensi e arm am ent s u p p ort.4 7 D uri Oc e 2
 om           v                                 ng tob r 000,
        ni ated a 1-m onth rotati
G A D i ti                          onal c         ,
                                             ours e op en to th e
     re      om        ad                  v
enti PL A c m andc re,to take ad antageofp eac ti e        e m


                                 3
                                23
    m                                        s
to i p rov e arm am ent m anagem ent andrai e th e lev el of
 om           v                        or     m
c p reh ensi e arm am ent s u p p ort f w arti e. Th e m ain
 oc         s     ni                  i e
f us ofth i trai ng w as on th e s c enc ofarm am ent and
w arti e arm am ent s u p p ort.4 8
      m
      In 2              h                                om
            000, G uangz ou M R s et up a “th eater c m and
  e         or                     ”     c             i     n
c nter f arm am ent s u p p ort, w h i h w as th e frs t i th e
        49
                 e          d        i om
PL A . Th e c nter p rov i es m ob le c m andp os ts f feldor i
                                                 i s onal lev els .
arm am ent s u p p ort to th e M R,arm y ,anddv i i
     dti                       ev       a om
A d i onally ,th eM R h as d elop ed c m and         autom ati  on
             or             h
s y s tem f th e G uangz ou W ar Z               s            i
                                        one. Th i s y s tem l nks
 nf           on     c             z          e
i orm ati v erti ally andh ori ontally b tw een arm am ent
                     ts         gh
and s up p ort uni and h i er h ead        quarters . It greatly
           e om
enh anc s c m andand c                               ti
                               ontrol ov er am m uni on as s ets ,
an d f     acilitates d ecis ion m akin g an d op erational
m anagem ent.5 0
          ng b
     D uri F e ruary 2                     onv     a
                          001,th eG A D c ened s y m p os i    um
 n i ng         i us ts
i B e ji to ds c s i m ii                 ni         or
                              l tary trai ng tas ks f th ey ear.
          nc ud : 1)                   ni      h e
Th es e i l ed ( as s es s trai ng ac i v em ents and
transf  orm th es e i         ni          blte 2
                      nto trai ng cap a i i i s ; ( ) s trength en
    d e        th        c
gui anc and eoreti al s tude ,and is                       i    fc
                                           regulateth es c enti i
  ev
d elop m ent of m i i                ni      3
                        l tary trai ng; ( ) renew trai ng    ni
c                     s             ty 4         n
 ontent, m eth od an d quali ; ( ) trai h i -quali    gh        ty
p ers onnel to ach iev e leap f            n    ev
                                    roggi g d elop m en t i      n
                    5                nf
arm am ent; and( )s trength en i ras truc      ture c         ti
                                                     onstruc on
and m ai       n
           ntai th e s us tai          ev
                               ned d elop m ent of m i i    l tary
trai ng.5 1
     ni
     In th e s um m er of 2   000, th e Ji           ond ted an
                                          nan M R c uc
            y       s c              ri
em ergenc logi ti s s up p ort d ll bas ed on a f                e
                                                        lood reli f
           52
    e
s c nari                e,
         o. M ateri l POL , tran s p ortati    on, and m edc   i al
s up p ort m od                   c         ii ed
                  ules w ere qui kly m ob l z . Th e s up p ort
m od                                              tals
      ules w ere bas edon w areh ous es , h os p i , andoth er
     c ali ed       ts           om
s p e i z uni , and enc p as s ed ord                 e
                                               nanc , m ateri   al,
POL , tran s p ortati           i al,
                       on, m edc and m ai               e
                                              ntenanc s up p ort.
      ng        e m ,h           ts             i i
D uri p eac ti e t es euni ares ent on frefgh ti food     ng, l
     e,       oth                cs      op     ons
reli f and er m ajor p roje t and erati . Th edv i i       i s on
  ev
d elop ed                   h       onc al             i   p nts
              new ap p roac es to c e s up p ly at fxed oi ,



                               3
                              24
                er on
m an euv er und c cealm ent of s m okes c       reen s , an d
coordnate logi ti s s up p ort w i nav al andai uni .5 3
     i        s c                 th           r   ts
           ng        orm                     y      ie
     N anji M R f ed an “E m ergenc M ob l L ogi ti s       s c
                el”                    s        ard
Sup p ort M od th at m et th e C M C ’ s tand s to p erf     orm
  om           s on       th
c bat m i s i s w i out p ers on n el an d equi m en t   p
rep leni h m ent and p re-battle trai ng (.e., no noti e)5 4
         s                             ni      i            c .
        ri e                          li           m
One b gad s p ent ov er th ree m i l on y uan i p rov i i  ng ts
  om
c p any -lev el com b              i           s ons
                         at-readnes s p rov i i , s tand     ard
                   i         i al ts om at-readnes s c f ,
s torage room s ,feldm edc ki ,c b                 i      ofers
             m
and w arti e ligh t s ets . Th e bri          e ev
                                         gad d elop ed new
      p         nc udng loati s tretc ers , feld ki h en
equi m ent, i l i f                ng      h       i       tc
c ontai                d       ti                     cp
        ners ,andrap i reac on tankers ,andp arti i atedi       n
                   i       th                           r
num erous exerc s es w i th e N av y , A rm y , andA i F orc     e
                                55
     ts
uni ov er th e p as t 3 y ears .
            h          ev             tub
    G uangz ou M R d elop edm ulti e POL tankers f          or
 i
feld ref      ng          gni i antly rai e f ed s u p p ort
          ueli th at s i f c             s d il
  fc enc                      oul                    0 tc
efi i y . W ater tankers c ds up p ort up to 2 ki h en
    ts           m       ed        r    c
uni at one ti e. F i l rep ai v eh i les c      ould p erform
v ari              y      rs       dti                 p
     ous em ergenc rep ai . In ad i on,s u p p ort equi m ent
 or
f s ea op erati                 ev       y         s     s c
                ons w as als o d elop edb G M R’ L ogi ti s
D ep artm ent andan uni enti i G M R dv i i 5 6
                          d fed           i s on.
                                 en                  s     i m
     A lth ough th ere h as b e s om eem p h as i on feld edc        i al
                           i al             m
s u p p ort, m os t m edc s u p p ort i p rov em ents , i l i   nc udng
    nt       s c             oc            orm
joi logi ti s ,h av e f us edon ref s ,as w ell as garri on          s
                     s                     s         ,
andnear-garri on s u p p ort. In th i regard th e G uangz ou        h
             i al      ni       je ti         c
M R m edc trai ng ob c v es ,w h i h v ari d c i to a e ac ordng
uni s lev el, m ay be rep res entati e. 5 7 Th e b gad or
     t’                                       v               ri e
      m         oc                 d ep oy
regi ent f us es on rap i d l m ent of a frs t-ai p os t. i       d
Th e b           on       om          oc               ue
          attali or c p any f us es on res c of p ers onnel
i                      i ng i           i al    ts
 njuredon th e fri l ne. M edc uni abov e th e dv i i             i s on
h os p i               oc                           ri c
         tal lev el f us on treatm ent of c ti al c es and     as
           h n                 ogy         e
res earc i traum atol . In rec nt y ears th e G uangz ou            h
                 ui t                 d
M R h as b l or renov ate 80 p erc nt of i dv i i e         ts i s on
h os p i tals an d b gad or regi ent m edc team s . 5 8
                         ri     e          m             i al
               y                ts        en s         “ad
E m ergenc s u p p ort uni h av eb e i s ued v anc d feld        e” i
       i          i al       p           h      i
m ob le m edc equi m ent, s uc as feldsurgery v eh i les            c
andd c    e ontam i       on        ks
                      nati truc . Th e G M R rep ortedth at th e


                                  3
                                 25
     i al      i                ts    th n     om at
m edc w ar-readnes s of “key uni ” w i i “key c b
  i s on        ri   es                         i
d v i i s an d b gad ” n ow m eets w ar read n es s
s tand s .5 9
      ard
                   tob r 000, tw o-th i s ofall PL A h os p i
     B y early Oc e 2                  rd                    tals
  om
c p letedc             ti           c        e ”       c
                onstruc on of“Proje t Num b r 1, w h i h lai ad
f       ati or        i orm    oni ed       i al
 ound on f an “ nf ati z ” m edc s erv i e s y s tem c
        an e
th at c b us edb b                  l tary andcv ii m edc
                      y oth th e m ii           i l an       i al
s erv i es .6 0
       c
               s i       rb         i al
     Th e PL A ’ frs t ai ornem edc team s c uc b   ond ted attle
                                               61
d          uri
  rills d n g th e s um m er of 2        000.        Th ree p lan es
   rd              i al                       i al
ai rop p edm edc p ers onnel andm edc s u p p l e onto a  is
 ap           rfeld
c turedai i . Th e m edc b               ed r-d
                              i s oard ai rop p edv eh i les    c
                 i       d     on.                   is
ands et up a frs t ai s tati Tw enty m edc ofth e F i t          rs
    rb           dc                   h
A i orne M e i al Team p arac ute uni m ad up of    t,     e
p ers onnel f rom th e PL A 4 5 7th H os p i            ed y
                                            tal, land b p lane.
         c            i al    t, on s ng
Th e Se ond M edc Uni c s i ti of 5 0 p ers onnel,
     v     y                       om
arri edb p lane ands et up a c p reh ensi e m ultiv        purp os e
      i al               ng             i ,
m edc p os t. D uri th e exerc s e trans p ort ai raf         rc t
                                 62
ev ac         ri c
      uatedc ti al p ers onnel.
                ng
    Th e N anji M ii              on’     an
                       l tary Regi s F uji M ii            s c
                                                 l tary D i tri t
              h     to m        ts
als o w orked ard i p rov ei w arti ei  m               logi c
                                            ntegrated s ti s
                b l t e uri
s up p ort cap a i i i s d ng 2                 l tary ds tri t
                                   000. Th e m ii         i c
      i al           orc s ond tedan exercs e d ng th e
m edc s up p ort f e c uc                       i     uri
                 nc ud                on     as
sum m er th at i l edan ev acuati ofc ualti s b      e rough t
 n            d fed
i on an uni enti i v es s el “f        i
                                 rom ds tant s eas .”
     A notab ef                       s           ed ogi c
               l eatureofth e PL A ’ extend l s ti al s y s tem
  uri
d ng 2                              n          on
             000-01 w as th e i tegrati of c v i i       i l an fxedi
 ac l ti s nf
f ii e , i ras truc      ture, p ers onnel, and res ourc s i   e nto
c onti         y
        ngenc op erati                      ni           s
                          ons and trai ng. Th i s up p ort i          s
                                 om i
es tablis h ed th rough a c b n ati            on of p re-arranged
c          ts e      onfs ati
  ontrac ,l galc i c on ofs u p p ort andcv ii         i l ans,as w ell
as i            on              al                     lta
     ntegrati th rough loc res erv e andm ii i uni . Th e       ts
c        i    on
  oordnati and i        ntegrati of cv ii s and d es ti
                                   on         i l an           om     c
           e        d                        s c           p ir
res ourc s p rov i es a “totalw ar” logi ti al m ulti l e to PL A
              s c ally along C h i s c tal regi andi th e
s u p p ort, e p e i                na’ oas              on        n
                          s                               ar e n
s outh w es t,w h ere th i ty p e ofs u p p ort h as s o f b e m os t
            z .                      i l an
em p h as i ed Th e ty p es of cv ii res ourc s , i ludnge nc i

                                 3
                                26
        b e i al                 on,              v
p os s i l fs c augm entati are extensi e andc nue to       onti
  ev              dti                is           al,
d elop . In ad i on to s up p l e , m ateri andp ers onnel,
                         e
th ey als o in clu d airp orts , p orts , rail n etw orks ,
exp res s w ay s , and b d ri ges th at h av e been ad ted toap
m ii            c fc ons ands up p ort m ii
    l tary s p e i i ati                                  s ons
                                                l tary m i s i . F or
exam p le, th e c            ti                gh
                   onstruc on of s om e h i s p eedroad and     s
  ri ges
b d w as c             i          th
                 oordnatedw i th e m ii                 nc ud
                                             l tary to i l e extra
    ts                ed      ac s      e
exi andup grad surf e to b ar th e w e gh t ofm i    i          litary
       c      e         th           r      k,
v eh i les , b tter w i s tandai attac andf ii                      c
                                                      ac l tate qui k
        ld n as             r       k.    e n
rebui i c eofan ai attac In c rtai areas ,suc as th e         h
           h
G uangz ou M R, th e m ii                       l          th i l an
                               l tary w orks cos ely w i c v ii
          ti s     ap tali e       i l an
auth ori e to c i z on c v ii as s ets andensure th es e
  an
c eas i y b il e ntegrated i              l tary op erati
                                   nto m ii                 ons w h en
need . ed
         th         ori         ros
     W i a p ri ty on c s - s ea op erati                    s
                                                  ons and i land
sez           uri
   i ures d ng 2                  ni                i l an
                      000-01 trai ng,th eus eofcv ii m ari        ne
                             .          as         ti           i
v es s els w as als o tes ted In som e c es ,m ari m e exerc s es
         ond ted th            x    i l an
w ere c uc w i a m i ofcv ii v es s els th at h av eb e         en
 n                n
i tegrated i to w ar p lan n i              v lian v es s els an d
                                     ng. C i i
                           cp       n     s m      ne
p ers onnel ev en p arti i atedi anti ub ari exerc s es —    i
         ng                     i l an          y
s h ow i th at th e us e of cv ii as s ets b th e PL A i not  s
 i tedb e th er i agi
lm i         y i       m         on                c ons.
                             nati or legal res tri ti
     In July 2                              ay
               000, th e Nav y h elda 17-d , 4 ,            c
                                                   000 nauti al
    ls       m       p ng ri l ros               ,
m i e w arti es h i p i d l ac s th eB oh ai Yellow ,E as t
     na,                 na          ng
C h i andSouth C h i Seas ,us i th e N ati        onal D efense
M ob l z on Sh i , Sh i h ang.6 3 Th e exerc s e w as th e frs t
      ii ati       p      c                   i             i
     c ul ri l              m             y       ii ati
suc es s f d l of “w arti e em ergenc m ob l z on and
 raf ng        i l an                                  i
d ti of cv ii pers onnel v es s els .” Th e exercs e w as
                   z      y
join tly organ i ed b th e State N ation al D ef s e      en
      ii ati
M ob l z on C om m i    ttee and th e PL A Nav y . D oz  ens of
m ii            i l an        cp
    l tary andcv ii s p arti i atedf  rom th e State Planni  ng
         s on, nanc M i s try ,C om m uni ati
C om m i s i F i       e ni                              ni