Advances in Environmental Monitoring

Advances in Environmental Monitoring A Presentation for the World Future Society Ted Gordon July 27, 2008 Scanning and Monitoring • Current Methods – Literature reviews – Panels (real time Delphi and SOFI) – Hit analysis, demographics, data mining (if you bought this, then…) • Emerging methods – social network analysis (blogs, facebook, etc.) • visualization: (http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/~jheer/vizster/vizster.wmv) – camera data (software needed) – Sensor nets: tiny bugs, chips, data mash-up Environmental Security Scanning www.aepi.army.mil (click reports) Millennium Project http://www.acunu.org Worldwide Emerging Environmental Issues Affecting the U.S. Military Contract No: DAAD19-02-D-0001/ Delivery Order 0456 with Battelle Columbus Operations for the U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute May 2008 Report Note to Readers: Pages 1-15 comprise the summary and analysis of this report. Expanded details for some items are in the Appendix beginning on page 16. Item 1. Environmental Damage to Be Criminalized in the EU…………..…….……..……....1 Item 2. New International Financial Alliance to Support Biodiversity………………………1 Item 3. US-Uruguay Treaty on S&T Cooperation………………………….…………………2 Item 4. International Convention on Cluster Munitions Adopted by 111 Countries……….2 Item 5. Indigenous Peoples Demand More Involvement in Environmental Policies………..2 Item 6. First Species declared Endangered Due to Global Warming……………………...…3 Item 7. Technological Advances with Environmental Security Implications………………..4 7.1 New Detection and Cleanup Techniques……………………………………………..4 7.2 Technologies for Increasing Energy Efficiency………………………………………5 Item 8. Updates on Previously Identified Issues……………………………………………….7 8.1 Non-Proliferation Treaty Deadlock Continues……………………………………….7 8.2 European Parliament Passed Resolution Calling for Global Ban of DU Weapons…...7 8.3 New Mechanisms for Enforcing Biosafety and Biological Diversity Treaties….….…8 8.4 IMO Sets New Limits on Ship Fuel Pollution…………………………………….…..9 8.5 EU Airline Carbon Trading to Start in 2011––a Year Earlier than Planned………….9 8.6 Arctic Issues Still at the Debate Stage………………………………………………...9 8.7 Canada Prepares to Ban More Chemicals…………………………………………....10 8.8 Reactive Nitrogen Beginning To Be Recognized As Environmental Hazard……….10 8.9 Climate Change………………………………………………………………………11 8.9.1 Scientific Evidences……………………………………………………………11 Panels: The Millennium Project Nodes Government Institutions Russian Academy of Natural Sciences Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Slovakian Academy of Sciences Universities Prague Rome São Paulo Cairo Helsinki Tehran Kodaikanal (India) Tel Aviv NGOs Venezuela (WFS chapter) Mexico (new NGO as Node) Kuwait (non-profit research institute) France (futurist network) So. Korea (Korea 2050 futurist org) U.K. (RSA – professional org) Azerbaijan (futurist association) Private Companies Tokyo (aerospace) Berlin (futures planning) Buenos Aires (futures planning) Silicon Valley (USA) (venture capital) New Delhi (futures, strategy planning Millennium Project Nodes... consist of groups of individuals and institutions that connect global and local views. They are headquartered in the following locations: Helsinki Berlin London Moscow Paris Prague Seoul Istanbul Baku Rome Tel-Aviv Tehran Tokyo Kuwait Cairo Beijing New Delhi Calgary Silicon Valley Ottawa Washington, DC Mexico City Caracas Bogotá Cyber Node Madurai Sao Paulo Pretoria/Johannesburg Sydney Buenos Aires Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special Panels: From Delphi to Real Time Delphi • • • • On line Does not involve the use of sequential “rounds” Greatly shortens the time to perform studies Developed by Ted Gordon and Adam Pease (Articulate Software) in an SBIR grant from DARPA, open source, publication: TFSC, 73 (2006) • Many applications: – – – – – – – DARPA: tactical decisions Corporate decision aiding Millennium Project Priorities UNESCO: Water reports MP forecast of energy developments MP choice of variables for State of the Future Index WFUNA: Declaration of human rights Panels: Description of the RTD Method • An on-screen form presents a series of questions to each participant, and for each: – The average (or median) response of the group so far (and possibly the distribution of responses) – The number of responses made so far – A button that opens a window showing reasons that others have given for their responses. – A button that opens a window that allows the respondent to type in justifications for their own answer. – A space for the new numerical estimate, answering the question. go Panels: Real Time Delphi Questionnaire Developments . What is the best plausible value by 2019? What is the nominal expectation by 2019? What is the worst plausible value by 2019? Probability Impacts Desirability 1 Availability of an all electric car, 4 passenger, 200 mile range, 0-60 in 10 sec, for under $25,000. The average will be shown after 2 responses or more are received and you have entered an answer above. Respondents: 1 Submit only this cell Reasons click here The average will be shown after 2 responses or more are received and you have entered an answer above. Respondents: 0 Submit only this cell Reasons click here The average will be shown after 2 responses or more are received and you have entered an answer above. Respondents: 0 Submit only this cell Reasons click here What is the best plausible value by 2019? What is the nominal expectation by 2019? What is the worst plausible value by 2019? 2 The average will be shown after 2 responses or more Light rail once seem as a good are received and you have alternative to automobiles is seen to be entered an answer above. inadequate in most places: Respondents: 0 overcrowded, dirty, unusable. Submit only this cell Reasons click here The average will be shown after 2 responses or more are received and you have entered an answer above. Respondents: 0 Submit only this cell Reasons click here The average will be shown after 2 responses or more are received and you have entered an answer above. Respondents: 0 Submit only this cell Reasons click here Panels: Real Time Delphi Formats • Small groups operating synchronously in a conference room with laptop computers connected wirelessly with anticipated completion of the exercise in say 20 minutes. • Participating individually from remote locations in scheduled on line sessions designed to help evaluate policy options for a decision maker in say 20 minutes. • Participating asynchronously from remote locations at convenient times over a somewhat longer period Real Time Delphi 2 • Provision for guests on Public Studies – – – – Reality (with provisions for expertise discounting) Automobiles (likelihood, impact, desirability) Wild Cards (under construction) War and Peace (under construction) • Ready to run (realtimedelphi.net) – Decision model – Peru energy – Advancement of Women Indexes: The State of the Future Index (SOFI) • Answers the question: “is the outlook for the future improving or worsening?” • Constructed of weighted variables such as life expectancy and employment. • Retrospective 20 years; prospective 10 years • Based on judgments of a global panel: experts recommended by 30 Nodes. • Judgments about variables, weights, and expectations. Indexes: Caveats • Indexes may lead to oversimplification and loss of detail • An index may hide cultural differences • Data behind the index must be preserved and transparent • Apparent precision may be mistaken for accuracy Indexes: Examples of Variables in 2007 Global SOFI . • Population lacking access to improved water sources • Literacy rate, adult total ((% aged 15 and above) • Levels of Corruption (15 largest countries) • School enrollment, secondary (% gross) • Poverty headcount at $1 a day (PPP) (% of population) (Low / Middle Income Countries) • Countries with or plans for nuclear weapons (number) . • CO2 emissions (global, kt) • Unemployment, total (% total LF) • Major Armed Conflicts (deaths >1,000) • Population growth (annual %) • R&D Expenditures (% of national budget) • People killed or injured in terrorist attacks • Energy from non fission, non fossil sources (% of total energy supply) Example of TIA Results Literacy 95 90 Percent Population 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Base UQ MED LQ Best Worst 2007 State of the Future Index 1.30 1.20 1.10 Base 1.00 UQ Med LQ 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Indexes: Proof of Concept Project with IFs • The IFs model – Is a multi equation model that links economic, demographic, and social measures – Covers 182 countries – Uses both systems dynamic relationships (flows and stocks) and econometric relationships – Includes “cohort-component systems for population; markets for production, exchange, and consumption; and social accounting matrices for financial flows” Future of Monitoring and Tracking • Threshold detection • Self determination of needed data- active packets• New data sources - Cameras, RF chips - MEMS, nano devices, chips - Automation (bots that infer) • New data analyses - Meshing, mining, linking • Experimental monitoring - Planting data and testing feedback - Sensitivity tests to learn what to watch for - Instrumenting (canaries)