California Conference Call - Wells Fargo by SantaCruzSentinel

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									California Conference Call
Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior Economist
February 14, 2013
Economic Growth




                                                                                U.S. Real GDP
                                                                  Bars = CAGR          Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
                                       10%                                                                                             10%
                                                                                     GDP - CAGR: Q4 @ -0.1%
                                         8%                                          GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q4 @ 1.5%             8%

                                         6%                                                                                            6%

     We are more than three years        4%                                                                                 Forecast   4%
    into the economic recovery and
                                         2%                                                                                            2%
       there is still a considerable
   amount of uncertainty regarding       0%                                                                                            0%
   sovereign debt issues in Europe,
                                       -2%                                                                                             -2%
     the federal budget deficit and
      the willingness of businesses    -4%                                                                                             -4%

     and households to commit to       -6%                                                                                             -6%
        major capital purchases.
                                       -8%                                                                                             -8%

                                       -10%                                                                                            -10%
                                           2000           2002        2004         2006         2008          2010   2012      2014




                                        Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC




Economic Outlook                                            2
Financial Crises Are Becoming More Frequent




                                                    10-Year Treasury & Fed Funds Target
                                                                                          Yield
                                     21%                                                                                            21%
                                                                                       10-Year Treasury Yield: Feb @ 2.01%
                                                                                       Fed Funds Target: Feb @ 0.25%
                                     18%                                                                                            18%


                                     15%                                                                                            15%

     Treasury yields are currently
      near record low levels. We     12%                                                                                            12%

     believe QE and fiscal policy
     uncertainty are the primary     9%                                                                                             9%

     drivers of ultra-low interest
                                     6%                                                                                             6%
                 rates.

                                     3%                                                                                             3%


                                     0%                                                                                             0%
                                       1971         1976         1981        1986        1991     1996   2002    2007        2012




                                     Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC




Economic Outlook                                          3
Unemployment Forecast




                                                                 Unemployment Forecast
                                                      Fed Central Tendency Forecast vs. Wells Fargo Forecast
                                   12%                                                                                     12%
                                                                                                             Q4 Average



                                   9%                                                                                      9%
                                                                                                             7.6%
                                                                                                                    7.2%

      Further reductions in the
   unemployment rate may lead to   6%                                                                                      6%

       an earlier tightening in
          monetary policy.
                                   3%                                                                                      3%

                                                  Central Tendency Forecast Range
                                                  Historical Unemployment Rate
                                                  Wells Fargo Economics Forecast
                                   0%                                                                                      0%
                                         2000         2002        2004         2006        2008    2010   2012   2014




                                   Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC




Economic Outlook                                        4
Labor Market




                                                                        Employment Cycles
                                                                        Percent Change from Cycle Peak
                                     20%                                                                                              20%
                                                         1948-1949 Cycle
                                                         1981-1982 Cycle
                                     16%                 1989-1991 Cycle                                                              16%
                                                         2001 Cycle
                                                         2007-To-Date
                                     12%                 Forecast                                                                     12%


                                       8%                                                                                             8%
   Job losses exceeded every post-
   World War II downturn, and the
                                       4%                                                                                             4%
     modest recovery to date has
    been extremely disappointing.
                                       0%                                                                                             0%


                                      -4%                                                                                             -4%


                                      -8%                                                                                             -8%
                                              0     6     12     18    24     30    36     42     48    54   60   66   72   78   84




                                     Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC




Economic Outlook                                          5
Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index




                                                       Wells Fargo Small Business Survey
                                                                                  Overall Situation
                                    120                                                                                             120


                                    100                                                                                             100


                                    80                                                                                              80


                                    60                                                                                              60
   Small business confidence rose
     20 points in early January,    40                                                                                              40
   swiftly rebounding from the 28
      point plunge the previous     20                                                                                              20

               quarter.
                                      0                                                                                             0


                                    -20                                                                                             -20
                                                   Overall Situation: Q1 @ 9
                                    -40                                                                                             -40
                                          2004     2005       2006        2007       2008       2009    2010   2011   2012   2013




                                     Source: Gallup, Wells Fargo Bank and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC




Economic Outlook                                          6
Homebuilding




                                                                             Housing Starts
                                                                                  Millions of Units
                                     2.4                                                                               2.4




                                                                                                                             Thousands
                                                Multifamily Starts
                                                Multifamily Forecast
                                     2.1                                                                               2.1
                                                Single-family Starts
                                                Single-family Forecast
                                     1.8                                                                               1.8

                                                                                                            Forecast
                                     1.5                                                                               1.5

    We believe housing starts have
                                     1.2                                                                               1.2
     bottomed and will increase
     modestly over the next few      0.9                                                                               0.9
                years.
                                     0.6                                                                               0.6


                                     0.3                                                                               0.3


                                     0.0                                                                               0.0
                                           80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18




                                      Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC




Economic Outlook                                          7
California and San Jose
California Employment Picture




                                                California Employment: Percent of Previous Peak
                                                                                        Percent
                                    102%                                                                                             102%



                                    100%                                                                                             100%



                                    98%                                                                                              98%



   Nonfarm payrolls remain more     96%                                                                                              96%
   than 5 percentage points below
      their prerecession peak.
                                    94%                                                                                              94%



                                    92%                                                                                              92%

                                                       Percent of Previous Peak: Dec @ 94.6%
                                    90%                                                                                              90%
                                           69    72     75    78     81    84     87    90     93      96   99   02   05   08   11




                                    Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC




Economic Outlook                                         9
California vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate




                                                          California Unemployment Rates
                                                                        Percent, Seasonally Adjusted
                                    14%                                                                                    14%
                                                    United States: Dec @ 7.8%
                                                    California: Dec @ 9.8%
                                    12%                                                                                    12%



                                    10%                                                                                    10%



   California’s unemployment rate   8%                                                                                     8%
    remains elevated compared to
        the nation as a whole.
                                    6%                                                                                     6%



                                    4%                                                                                     4%



                                    2%                                                                                     2%
                                          76        80        84         88         92         96      00   04   08   12




                                    Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC




Economic Outlook                                         10
California Nonfarm Employment Growth by Industry

                                                               California Employment Growth by Industry
                                                                             3-Month Moving Averages, December 2012
                                                   8%
                                                         Recovering                                                                   Information
                                                                                                                                                                 Expanding
                                                            Percent of Total Employees
                                                            10% to 20%
                                                   6%       5 % to 10%
               3-Month Annualized Percent Change




                                                            Less than 5%


                                                   4%                                                                Trade, Trans. & Utilites


                                                                                                                                      Leisure and Hospitality


                                                                                                                                                  Construction
                                                   2%



                                                                                              Financial Activities               Educ. & Health Svcs.
                                                              Government
                                                   0%


                                                                 Other Services

                                                                  Manufacturing
                                                   -2%                                                                       Prof. & Bus. Svcs.




                                                         Contracting                                                                                            Decelerating
                                                   -4%
                                                      -4%              -2%               0%                     2%                  4%                    6%               8%
                                                                                         Year-over-Year Percent Change
  Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


Economic Outlook                                                                                          11
California Nonfarm Employment Growth

                                                       California Employment Growth: December 2012
                                                                                      3-Month Moving Averages
                                                 8%
                                                       Recovering                                                                                        Expanding
                                                                                                                                                    Population
                                                                                                  Oxnard                                            3 Million+
                                                 6%                                                                                                 1 - 3 Mil.
                                                                                             San Luis Obispo                        San Jose
             3-Month Annualized Percent Change




                                                                                                                                                    500 Thous. - 1 Mil.
                                                                                Modesto                                   Santa Barbara             300 - 500 Thous.
                                                                                                                                                    200 - 400 Thous.

                                                 4%                                             Visalia
                                                                               Los Angeles                      Salinas

                                                                Orange County                                                                                Santa Cruz
                                                                                                                                Stockton
                                                                                                                 Oakland
                                                 2%                                                                                 San Francisco
                                                                                                     San Diego

                                                                      Inland Empire
                                                                                                           Fresno
                                                 0%
                                                                                                                                                          Santa Rosa
                                                                      Bakersfield
                                                                                                Sacramento


                                                 -2%



                                                       Contracting                                                                                    Decelerating
                                                 -4%
                                                    -1%          0%                   1%             2%                   3%               4%         5%                  6%
                                                                                           Year-over-Year Percent Change
  Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


Economic Outlook                                                                                           12
California

                   Unemployment Rate by County




                                     California Unemployment Rate
                                     Decem ber 2012
                                             Greater than 14.0%              8 .0% to 10.0%
                                             1 2.0% to 14.0%                 Less than 8.0%
                                             1 0.0% to 12.0%

                                     Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC




Economic Outlook               13
California – Home Prices & Construction




                   With home prices improving, residential construction is poised to strengthen.



                                    Home Prices                                                                           Housing Permits


             CoreLogic Home Price Index: CA vs. US                                                               California Housing Permits
                       Index, 2000=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted                                           Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
 280                                                                           280        225                                                                                 225
                                                                                                            Single-Family: Dec @ 30,240
            California: Dec @ 163.2
                                                                                                            Single-Family, 12-M Mov. Avg.: Dec @ 27,217
            United States: Dec @ 144.9                                                    200                                                                                 200
 250                                                                           250                          Multi-Family, 12-M Mov. Avg.: Dec @ 30,274


                                                                                          175                                                                                 175
 220                                                                           220
                                                                                          150                                                                                 150

 190                                                                           190        125                                                                                 125


 160                                                                           160        100                                                                                 100


                                                                                          75                                                                                  75
 130                                                                           130
                                                                                          50                                                                                  50

 100                                                                           100
                                                                                          25                                                                                  25
                                                                                                                       Single-Family Avg (1998 to 2003): 109,728
  70                                                                           70          0                                                                                  0
       90   92    94     96    98     00   02    04    06    08    10    12                     90   92   94      96       98      00       02       04   06   08   10   12




   Source: CoreLogic, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC




Economic Outlook                                                                     14
San Jose – Labor Market



        Employment growth has held strong in the past year.. The unemployment rate in San Jose
                                          continues to fall.


                        Employment Growth                                                                            Unemployment


             San Jose MSA Nonfarm Employment                                                           San Jose MSA Unemployment Rate
                              3-Month Moving Averages                                                                 Seasonally Adjusted
 15%                                                                       15%         14%                                                                       14%
              3-Month Annual Rate: Dec @ 5.7%                                                          Unemployment Rate: Dec @ 7.9%
              Year-over-Year Percent Change: Dec @ 3.5%
                                                                                                       12-Month Moving Average: Dec @ 8.5%
              Household: Yr/Yr Percent Change: Dec @ 3.5%
 10%                                                                       10%         12%                                                                       12%



  5%                                                                       5%          10%                                                                       10%



  0%                                                                       0%          8%                                                                        8%



  -5%                                                                      -5%         6%                                                                        6%



 -10%                                                                      -10%        4%                                                                        4%



 -15%                                                                      -15%        2%                                                                        2%
        92   94   96     98     00     02    04    06     08     10   12                     90   92     94    96    98   00    02     04    06   08   10   12




  Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC




Economic Outlook                                                                  15
San Jose – Home Prices & Construction



   Home prices in San Jose continue to rise, and multifamily homebuilding has shown significant
                                           improvement.


                                   Home Prices                                                                        Housing Permits


             CoreLogic Home Price Index: San Jose, CA                                                      San Jose MSA Housing Permits
                      Index, 2000=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted                                           Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
 200                                                                           200        10                                                                           10
             San Jose, CA: Dec @ 152.0                                                              Single-Family, 12-Month Mov. Avg.: Dec @ 1,512
                                                                                                    Multi-Family, 12-Month Mov. Avg.: Dec @ 4,153
 180         United States: Dec @ 144.9                                        180
                                                                                                    Single-Family: Dec @ 1,668
                                                                                          8                                                                            8
 160                                                                           160


 140                                                                           140
                                                                                          6                                                                            6

 120                                                                           120

                                                                                          4                                                                            4
 100                                                                           100


  80                                                                           80
                                                                                          2                                                                            2

  60                                                                           60


  40                                                                           40         0                                                                            0
       90   92   94     96    98    00    02    04    06     08    10    12                    90   92   94     96    98     00    02     04    06     08    10   12




   Source: CoreLogic, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC




Economic Outlook                                                                     16
Santa Cruz – Labor Market



             Santa Cruz has seen relatively strong employment growth in the past year, although the
                                      unemployment rate remains elevated.


                         Employment Growth                                                                           Unemployment


                   Santa Cruz MSA Nonfarm Employment                                                   Santa Cruz MSA Unemployment Rate
                                  3-Month Moving Averages                                                                 Seasonally Adjusted
 15%                                                                       15%         18%                                                                          18%
                                                                                                       Unemployment Rate: Dec @ 9.7%
 12%                                                                       12%                         12-Month Moving Average: Dec @ 10.9%
                                                                                       16%                                                                          16%

  9%                                                                       9%
                                                                                       14%                                                                          14%
  6%                                                                       6%

                                                                                       12%                                                                          12%
  3%                                                                       3%

  0%                                                                       0%          10%                                                                          10%

  -3%                                                                      -3%
                                                                                       8%                                                                           8%

  -6%                                                                      -6%
                                                                                       6%                                                                           6%
  -9%                                                                      -9%
              3-Month Annual Rate: Dec @ 3.0%
                                                                                       4%                                                                           4%
 -12%         Year-over-Year Percent Change: Dec @ 4.0%                    -12%
              Household: Yr/Yr Percent Change: Dec @ 4.6%
 -15%                                                                      -15%        2%                                                                           2%
        92    94    96    98    00    02     04    06       08   10   12                     90   92      94   96    98     00    02    04      06   08   10   12




  Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC




Economic Outlook                                                                  17
Santa Cruz – Home Prices & Construction



       The housing market recovery in Santa Cruz remains modest, although home prices are above
                                           the national level.


                                   Home Prices                                                                           Housing Permits

            CoreLogic Home Price Index: Santa Cruz, CA                                                      Santa Cruz MSA Housing Permits
                      Index, 2000=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted                                             Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
 220                                                                           220        20                                                                             20
            Santa Cruz, CA: Dec @ 150.5                                                                  Single-Family: Dec @ 24
                                                                                                         Single-Family, 12-Month Mov. Avg.: Dec @ 132
 200        United States: Dec @ 144.9                                         200                       Multi-Family, 12-Month Mov. Avg.: Dec @ 42

 180                                                                           180
                                                                                          15                                                                             15

 160                                                                           160


 140                                                                           140
                                                                                          10                                                                             10
 120                                                                           120


 100                                                                           100

                                                                                          5                                                                              5
  80                                                                           80


  60                                                                           60


  40                                                                           40         0                                                                              0
       90   92   94     96    98    00    02    04    06     08    10    12                    90   92      94     96    98    00     02    04    06     08    10   12




   Source: CoreLogic, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC




Economic Outlook                                                                     18
Issues to Watch




                             European            Credit Availability
                             Debt Crisis         & Financial Reform




             Fiscal Policy
                                                                        Deleveraging
             Uncertainty




                   China                                               Monetary Policy




                             Geopolitical        Energy/Commodity
                              Tensions              Price Swings




Economic Outlook                            19
Our Forecast




                                                           Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Forecast
                                                      Actual                          Forecast                    Actual            Forecast
                                                       2012                             2013               2010    2011    2012   2013   2014
                                             1Q      2Q       3Q         4Q    1Q     2Q     3Q     4Q

    Real Gross Domestic Product      1       2.0     1.3     3.1     -0.1      2.0    2.0    1.9    2.1    2.4     1.8     2.2    1.7    2.1
      Personal Consumption                   2.4     1.5     1.6         2.2   1.8    1.3    1.1    1.6    1.8     2.5     1.9    1.6    1.6
                             2
    Inflation Indicators
      PCE Deflator                           2.4     1.6     1.5         1.5   1.0    1.2    1.2    1.3    1.9     2.4     1.7    1.2    1.9
      Consumer Price Index                   2.8     1.9     1.7         1.9   1.5    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.6     3.1     2.1    1.7    2.1

    Industrial Production        1           5.9     2.4     0.4         1.0   2.4    3.5    4.1    4.1    5.4     4.1     3.7    2.4    3.8
    Corporate Profits Before Taxes       2   10.3    6.7     7.5         5.0   4.8    5.2    5.3    5.7    26.8    7.3     7.3    5.3    6.4
    Trade Weighted Dollar Index      3       72.7   74.5     72.7    73.4      73.0   74.0   75.0   76.0   75.4    70.9    73.5   74.5   76.8
    Unemployment Rate                        8.3     8.2     8.0         7.8   7.8    7.6    7.5    7.4    9.6     8.9     8.1    7.6    7.2
                         4                                                                                 0.59    0.61    0.78   0.99   1.18
    Housing Starts                           0.71   0.74     0.77    0.90      0.90   0.96   1.02   1.08

    Quarter-End Interest Rates 5
     Federal Funds Target Rate               0.25   0.25     0.25    0.25      0.25   0.25   0.25   0.25   0.25    0.25    0.25   0.25   0.25
      Conventional Mortgage Rate             3.95   3.68     3.50    3.35      3.50   3.60   3.70   3.80   4.69    4.46    3.66   3.65   4.20
      10 Year Note                           2.23   1.67     1.65    1.78      1.90   2.00   2.10   2.20   3.22    2.78    1.80   2.05   2.60
    Forecast as of: February 6, 2013
      1
        C ompound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter
     2
         Year-over-Year Percentage C hange
     3
         Federal Reserve Major C urrency Index, 1973=100 - Quarter End
     4
         Millions of Units
     5
         Annual Numbers Represent Averages




Economic Outlook                                                                 20
Wells Fargo Forecast: Year-Ago vs. Actual




                                       Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Forecast
                          1
                        20 3




                                                                                               2012
                                                                                  Year -Ago         Actual
                                                                                   0            0


                                                                         1              2.1           2.2
                       Real Gross Domestic Product                                 0



                                                                                   0            0
                                                                                   0            0




                       Nonfarm Payroll Change                    2                 0
                                                                                       122.5        180.8
                       Unemployment Rate                                           0
                                                                                        9.0           8.1
                       Consumer Price Index                                             1.9           2.1
                                                   3                                   0.69          0.78
                       Housing Starts
                       Light Vehicle Sales             4                           0
                                                                                       13.7          14.4
                                                                                   0            0
                                                                                   0            0


                                                                     5
                       Quarter-End Interest Rates                                  0            0




                        2 Year Note                                                0
                                                                                       0.45          0.28
                               10 Year Note                                        0
                                                                                       2.15          1.80
                                                                                   0            0



                       January 2012 Forecast vs. Actual Numbers
                               1                                             2
                                   Annual Averages Year-over-Year                Average Monthly C hange
                               3                           4
                                   Millions of Units           Actual Total Vehicles Sold
                               5
                                   Annual Averages




Economic Outlook                                                     21
Appendix
Wells Fargo Economics Group Publications

                                        A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional & Industry Commentary
                                                                       Recent Special Commentary
                                             Date                                     Title                                    Authors
                                          February-07   European Debt Dynamics: An Update                            Bryson
                                          February-05   Alabama's Big Wheels Keep on Turning                         Vitner & Silverman
                                          February-04   When Is This Time Different?                                 Silvia, Iqbal, Watt & Swankoski
                                          February-04   The Brazilian Economy Continues to Struggle                  Aleman
                                          January-25    Bank of Japan Joins Other Central Banks                      Quinlan
                                          January-25    British Economy Remains Quite Weak                           Bryson
                                          January-24    Is Commercial Real Estate Still an Inflation Hedge?          Khan
                                          January-15    A Decision Maker's View of Fiscal Policy                     Silvia
                                          January-15    California's Broadening Economic Recovery                    Vitner

   To view any of our past research       January-14
                                          January-09
                                                        Peruvian Economy: Still Going Strong
                                                        National Health Spending: Secular Growth Cyclical Slowdown
                                                                                                                     Aleman
                                                                                                                     Silvia & Swankoski

             please visit:                January-04
                                          January-02
                                                        Employment: So, Is This It?
                                                        A Fiscal Cliff Resolution? Not Really
                                                                                                                     Silvia & Watt
                                                                                                                     Silvia & Brown

    http://www.wellsfargo.com/            December-19
                                          December-19
                                                        Texas: Growth in a Weakening World Environment
                                                        Canada: Economic Rock Star Faces Big Challenges
                                                                                                                     Aleman & Griffiths
                                                                                                                     Quinlan

             economics                    December-18
                                          December-17
                                                        Fiscal Cliff and True Reform
                                                        Housing Chartbook: November 2012
                                                                                                                     Silvia
                                                                                                                     Vitner, Khan & Silverman
                                          December-13   2013 Economic Outlook
                                          December-11   Commercial Real Estate Chartbook: Quarter 3                  Vitner, Khan & Silverman
                                          December-03   Industrial Production and Business Spending Outlook          Quinlan & Watt
                                          November-27   Georgia Economic Outlook: November 2012                      Vitner & Silverman
                                          November-19   The Economic Impact of the Fiscal Cliff: An Update           Silvia, Brown & Swankoski
      To join any of our research         November-16
                                          November-13
                                                        California's Economic Recovery Rolled On In October
                                                        Income Tax Analysis: Who Pays?
                                                                                                                     Vitner
                                                                                                                     Silvia & Brown
     distribution lists please visit:     November-09
                                          November-07
                                                        Global Chartbook: November 2012
                                                        The Fiscal Cliff Debate In A Post-Election World
                                                                                                                     Bryson, Aleman & Quinlan
                                                                                                                     Silvia & Brown

     http://www.wellsfargo.com/           November-01
                                          October-29
                                                        North Carolina Economic Outlook
                                                        Housing Data Wrap-Up: October 2012
                                                                                                                     Vitner, Brown & Watt
                                                                                                                     Vitner & Khan
            economicsemail                October-24
                                          October-18
                                                        2012 Holiday Sales Outlook
                                                        U.S. Fiscal Primer III: Federal Revenues
                                                                                                                     Aleman, Iqubal & Brown
                                                                                                                     Silvia, Bryson & Brown
                                          October-18    Retirement in America: Extending the Finish Line             Bryson, Iqbal & Watt
                                          October-12    The Great Unemployment Rate Debate                           Silvia, Watt & Swankoski
                                          October-08    The Unemployment Rate: Seasonality and Sampling              Silvia, Iqbal & Watt
                                          October-02    Housing Chartbook: September 2012                            Vitner, Khan & Silverman
                                         September-25   Local Budgets Under Pressure: A Fiscal Outlook               Silvia & Brown
                                         September-17   Global Chartbook: September 2012                             Bryson, Aleman & Quinlan
                                         September-10   U.S. Fiscal Primer II: Federal Government Spending           Silvia, Bryson & Brown




Economic Outlook                                        23
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group

                     Global Head of Research and Economics                                                                                      Economist s

 Diane Schumaker -Krieg      ………………… ….diane.schumaker@wellsfargo.com
                                                      ……                                                   Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………………………azhar.iqbal@wellsfargo.com
    Global Head of Research & Economics
                                                                                                           Tim Quinlan, Economist …………………………………..tim.quinlan@wellsfargo.com
                                     Chief Economist
                                                                                                           Michael A. Brown, Economist ………………… m ichael.a.brown@wellsfargo.com
 John Silvia     …                       ...................... …
                                                             .           john.silvia@wellsfargo.com
                                                                                                                                           Economic Analysts
                                    Senior Economist s
                                                                                                           Sarah Watt, Economic Analyst …………………………… .sarah.watt@wellsfargo.com
 Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....……… . .                       m ark.vitner@wellsfargo.com
                                                                     .
                                                                                                           Kay lyn Swankoski, Economic Analyst               kay lyn.swankoski@wellsfargo.com
 Jay Bryson, Global Economist          …………………....……….jay.bryson@wellsfargo.com                            Zachary Griffiths, Economic Analyst                 zachary.griffiths@wellsfargo.com

 Eugenio Aleman, Senior Economist            …………… .eugenio.j.aleman@wellsfargo.com                        Sara Silverman, Econom ic Analyst                      sara.silverman@wellsfargo.com

 Sam Bullard, Senior Economist          ………………………… .sam.bullard@wellsfargo.com                                                         Administrative Assistants

 Anika Khan, Senior Economist          .…                           . anika.khan@wellsfargo.com            Peg Gav in, Executive Assistant.                           peg.gavin@wellsfargo.com

                                                                                                           Cyndi Flowe, Administrative Assistant                  cyndi.h.flowe@wellsfargo.com




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 not limited to, Wells Fargo & Company , Wells Fargo Bank N.A, Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC, and Wells Fargo Securities International Limited. The information and opinions herein are for general
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Economic Outlook                                                                                      24

								
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