Paper Cuts - Weekly Newsletter

Paper Cuts - Weekly Newsletter From: AsiaPaperMarkets.com Date: Wednesday, March 07, 2007 Dear Subscriber, “From a productivity standpoint, we had another successful year, but we continued to see the negative effects of growing imports of coated freesheet paper from China, Indonesia and South Korea, which we believe is being sold in our markets at artificially low prices,” said Mark A. Suwyn, CEO of NewPage Corporation. “Late last year, we petitioned the U.S. Department of Commerce to initiate anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on imports from those countries that could lead to the imposition of duties on those imports. The dumping and subsidization of certain paper producers should not be tolerated and the governments of China, Indonesia and South Korea should stop subsidizing pulp and paper production and exports from those countries. We believe everyone should have a fair opportunity to compete in this market. We are unable to predict the outcome of these investigations at this time.” One predictable outcome was that Suwyn set off another flurry of protectionist sentiment in the United States with the main target being China. Just over a year ago the US Department of Commerce set anti-dumping tariffs on some imported paper products from China with duties ranging from 52.1 to 258.21 percent being set on products that included lined paper typically supplied to schools such as notebooks, composition books and graph paper. What is interesting about the most recent actions is that US producers admit that China‟s market share in coated paper is small, but they are not going to wait until Chinese producers dominate the business which the Americans are quite sure they will eventually do because China dominates in other areas such as toys and underwear. They want to block what they see as unfair competition “before it is too late.” Some view NewPage‟s concerns as being the bases for a test case that could lead to a new confrontation between the United States and China, which some industry officials and members of Congress hope could lead to new tariffs on imports not only of Chinesemade paper but also of steel, furniture, textiles and plastics. China is going to court now to try to block action by the Commerce Department that they anticipate will happen in a couple of weeks and will result in duties being imposed on coated paper imported from China. NewPage maintains that China‟s advantage over them in producing lower cost paper is not so much in production differences but is the result of subsidies which they allege include government grants for modernization, low-cost loans, debt forgiveness, tax breaks for export-oriented companies and subsidies for suppliers of wood and pulp. Not all American law makers are happy with the action being directed at China. On March 1, US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said he was worried about growing calls for protectionism . He said protectionist barriers are not the solution to the problem. “Some politicians from both parties, reflecting what they are hearing from their constituents, are moving further toward embracing protectionism. This is a worrisome trend. And it is a trend we must resist,” Paulson said in a speech at the Economic Club of Washington, Reuters reported. Paulson said protectionist barriers in the U.S. would hurt U.S. consumers and make the United States less competitive, the Reuters report continued, “Free trade is one of the cornerstones of our economic success as a nation. We must redouble our efforts to demonstrate the benefits of trade to our standard of living -- and make clear that retreating to economic isolationism would mean fewer jobs, lower incomes, and lower standards of living.” In February, China announced that its trade surplus hit US$ 5.88 billion in January. The figure was a 65 percent rise year-on-year, although it dropped markedly from US $21 billion in December, according to the General Administration of Customs. It is not that China is insensitive to the problem as the huge deficit heaps pressure on the government that has already made it a priority this year to reduce the imbalance. The government says it has taken a series of measures to stop the surplus from widening and the impact of these measures is expected to gradually be realized throughout the year. However, it is not only the US that can get into a protectionist mood. Late in 2006 China‟s Ministry of Commerce imposed an anti-dumping duty on Japanese importers of paper for electrolytic capacitors. The Ministry‟s ruled that the paper imported from Japan constituted dumping and harmed domestic companies. Previously other grades of paper, such as art paper, have been come under scrutiny of the Chinese government who decided imports from a number of countries constituted dumping and took action against the companies. In a complex world with competing interests there is certain to be more conflict in the global marketplace. The best way to deal with it is through agreements that work for everybody. However, when jobs are being lost, when facilities are being closed, logic doesn‟t always rule. Floyd Cowan AsiaPaperMarkets.com f.cowan@asiapapermarkets.com Prices, Production & Inventory, Industry Resources SE Asia Paper Market Hardwood Pulp Woodfree 70/80gsm US$600 US$800 CFR SE Asia CFR SE Asia sheets A4 Photocopy Coated Art Paper 100 gsm (UP) Art Board Duplex 350 gsm *Prices updated on March 07, 2007 US$820 US$800 US$820 US$490 CFR SE Asia CFR SE Asia CFR SE Asia CFR SE Asia Finnish index compiler FOEX put on Tuesday March 06, 2007 the benchmark price of northern bleached softwood pulp (NBSK) in Europe at USD 758.93 per tonne, up from last week‟s USD 757.68 (USD + 1.25). Like last week, lightweight coated (LWC) is down and newsprint is up. In the US, PIX NBSK continues to be listed at USD 790.00 per tonne. PIX Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp (BHKP) EUR value is down by EUR – 2.16 to EUR 509.26 from EUR 511.42 per tonne last week. PIX Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp (BHKP) USD value is also down by USD – 1.36 to USD 670.34 from USD 671.70 per tonne last week. PIX Light Weight Coated (LWC) paper is down by EUR – 1.45 to EUR 692.76 per tonne (EUR 694.21 last week) and Newsprint is listed at EUR 533.74, up by EUR + 2.77 from EUR 530.97 as last week. Both PIX Newsprint 30 lb and PIX Newsprint 27 lb in the U.S. at USD 604.68 and USD 641.91 are down by USD – 1.09 and USD – 2.01, from USD 605.77 and USD 643.92 last week, respectively. Price Developments (Europe) Latest PIX-NBSK USD 758.93 Latest LTFP*USD NBSK 727 Latest PIX-BHKP: USD 670.34 Latest LTFPUSD BHKP 638 *LTFP - Long Term fixed Price (twelve-month price indicator from the following month based on a monthly delivery of 500 tonnes) as of 06 March „07. [Source: Sodra, Sweden] NBSK Prices / NYBOT NBSK Futures … NYBOT Pulp (NBSK) Futures (Settlement) Prices March 06, 2007 vs. February 27, 2007 / CONTRACT SIZE: 20 air dry metric tons; in US$ NYBOT Futures Market / Settlement Prices (US$/t) and Open Interests (Contracts) April- JuneAugOctDec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Open 07 07 07 07 Interest March 06, 675 670 659 658 656 658 656 600 2007 February 27, 687 677 668 667 661 660 660 605 2007 Change -12 -7.0 -9.0 -9.0 Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) -5.0 -2.0 -4.0 -5.0 NBSK Market Outlook … The following presentation has been sourced from leading pulp producer Mercer International Inc.’s presentation at the CIBC World Markets 10th Annual Whistler Investor Conference held last month (February 22 – 23, 2007) in Whistler, B.C., Canada. Company Background: Mercer International Inc., as per the information provided by the company, is the largest publicly traded NBSK(1) market pulp producer in the world and it operates three pulp mills with 1.38 million ADMT(2) of capacity – Rosenthal (Germany) 310,000 ADMT; Stendal (Germany) 600,000 ADMT; and Celgar (B.C., Canada) 470,000 ADMT. [ADMT = air dried metric tonnes] NBSK Market Pulp Capacity by Producer: (Note: Over 90% of worldwide NBSK production comes from Canada and Western Europe) (1) Adjusted to the merger of Weyerhaeuser’s fine paper business with Domtar, excluding certain idled mills. NBSK Producers / Comparison of Assets: The following, very interesting diagram by industry analyst Jaakko Poyry compares the assets of the leading 20 NBSK producers in terms of:  Large, modern facilities - low capital requirements, high runability  State-of-the-art environmental compliance  Energy - net producers Note: Bubbles represent market pulp producers NBSK End-uses (2006):  NBSK pulp adds strength to a wide range of paper products  Growing demand driven by technological evolution of industry  Papers moving toward lighter weights, more coatings/fillers and recycled content Source: Jaako Poyry Note: Demand over time has been shifting away from less demanding end uses. The end use shift velocity increased in 2006 as a result of Canadian capacity closures, which forced consumers to shift away from less demanding end uses. Global Demand Growth - Market Wood Pulp (2004 to 2020):  Demand growth in Eastern Europe & China higher than global average  Significant investments in paper making capacity in China will increase the need for softwood imports.  China will account for 25% of all market pulp demand by 2020. Share of Consumption in 2004 (42 million tons), % Source: Jaako Poyry China Softwood Imports 2000 – 2006:  Year over Year growth has been steady albeit volatile on a monthly basis  Between Nov 2000 and Oct 2006 growth in softwood imports has increased at an average of 17%  This growth correlates with China‟s capacity increases in virgin pulp consuming paper grades  Annual growth in NBSK imports is now the equivalent of nearly one Stendal mill per year Share of consumption in 2000 (325 million ADMT) Source: China General Administration of Customs Pulp Price History: Quarterly Average RISI Price Delivered to Northern Europe Reduction in Capacity: Recently announced closures and expected shutdowns will reduce supply  Approximately 1 million mt of NBSK market pulp capacity  Represents approximately 7% of total global NBSK market pulp capacity North American NBSK Pulp Closures Supply Demand Tightening:  Gap between supply and demand may have become negative in 2006 assuming a 1.5% increase in demand coupled with NBSK capacity closures  Market is beginning to recognize these fundamentals and the impact on the NBSK commodity should be similar to nickel, steel and copper.  Tighter differential will cause: NBSK floor prices and average trend prices will increase and pricing will be much more sensitive to events such as strikes, mill downtime and fiber shortages. Source: Pulp & Paper Products Council North American mill recovery boilers relatively old (vis-à-vis Mercer): In North America, almost one-half of all recovery boilers are greater than 30 years old. (The recovery boiler is the heart of the pulp mill and the largest capital item) Source: Jaakko Poyry Potential for Further Mill Closures in North America: The mills with old recovery boilers are characterized as having low production tonnage and as having high costs as a result of old inefficient equipment. It is expected that when these mills need major capital expenditures such as rebuilding their recovery boiler, companies will be faced with a decision to make the investment or shutdown the mill. Many of these companies will decide to shutdown as current low pulp prices and the high cost nature of these mills preclude any reasonable return on investment. This trend has begun with the idling of over 1 million tonnes of Canadian NBSK capacity. Mercer is of the opinion that this trend will continue with further capacity closures. Northern Softwood Fiber Situation: Europe: The influence of renewable energy is increasing European producer‟s wood costs. Residual wood costs have been rising as a result of European demand for pellets and other green energy. With the recent wind storms and a warmer than normal winter prices will moderate as there is an increase in available fiber. Eastern Canada: Quebec has reduced its allowable harvest by 20% to maintain a sustainable wood harvest level. Long term this will cause a regional shortage of wood and higher wood costs for eastern NBSK pulp mills. Over the short term pulp capacity closures happening before sawmill closures that created a short term glut. With large volumes of eastern sawmill production currently down for market conditions, NBSK producers will begin to experience shortages. Pacific Northwest United States: With lumber demand dropping 3.2% over 2005 and forecasts of a further 7% decline the chip supply situation will only continue to tighten. Producers in this region have focused on pulp log chipping and have been forced to purchase saw logs which is putting pricing pressure on sawmills. Mills will be placing an even greater dependence on whole logs chips over the first 3 quarters of 2007. British Columbia: Chip supply has significantly tightened. Consolidation of coastal sawmill ownership has resulted in a rationalization of production and lower chip production. This has forced coastal mills to source chips over great distances from the BC interior tightening chip supply. Chip prices have been rising although not the degree as the Pacific Northwest. Whole log chipping in BC will become more prevalent over the short term. Renewable Bio-energy Impact:  In the future we believe energy producers will compete over fiber supply with pulp producers and other users of residual (waste wood).  In the next ten years gasification technology such as the technology being developed by Choren & Shell will start to compete for fiber both in northern and southern hemisphere driving up prices.  With oil trading at $50USD/barrel, wood could have a value of up to approximately 210USD/tonne based on energy value.  Companies like German based Choren have been quite successful with their technology converting wood to usable energy sources such as wood to diesel in small scale plants.  When these companies start to develop large scale plants to achieve economies of scale they will be looking for areas of the world where fiber is cheap relative to its energy value, which could lead to increased fiber costs for Eucalyptus pulp producers. Northern Softwood Fiber Situation: Fiber Shortage Impact:  NBSK competitors may be forced to reduce pulp production either through down time or reduced production to match wood supply   NBSK prices will remain high as a result of increased wood costs which will be driven by biomass energy demand and reduced lumber production Further indefinite closures of high cost producers will result in further tightening of the NBSK pulp market Chinese & Indian firms to set up three pulp mills in Ethiopia … Three pulp mills are to be constructed in Ethiopia jointly with Land and Sea Development- Ethiopia (LSDE), and Chinese and Indian companies, Nazret (Ethiopia) reported this week. LSDE started undertaking bamboo development in Benshangul-Gumz State with a capital of 136 million dollars on a plot of 393,000 hectares of lease free land. The company has also secured another 50,000 hectares in the state for plantation and harvesting eucalyptus trees. LSDE founder and CEO Dr. E. Druce Fisher told media persons that the company is in final negotiations with a Chinese company MCC International and an Indian company, Andhra Paper Mills Ltd. for the construction of pulp mills in Benshangul-Gumz State and Oromia Regional State. The mills have a capacity of producing 100,000 and 75,000 tons of pulp respectively. The mills are scheduled to come on line in two years and would cost about 360 million dollars, which would be a 50/50 joint venture between LSDE and the other parties. The company is also negotiating with another Indian company J.K Paper Ltd. to open a third mill that with a capacity of producing 500,000 metric tons of pulp. According to officials of the company, the new ventures would put Ethiopia as the seventh biggest producer of pulp after all factories become operational. LSDE has also signed a contract agreement providing for the sale and delivery of dry raw bamboo, eucalyptus forest material and products to its clients -- pulp and paper mills in India and China. (Source: Nazret, Ethiopia) Brazilian pulp producer targets Chinese pulp market … The chairman of Brazilian paper and pulp manufacturer Suzano said last week that the projection for the company‟s Asian sales in 2007, specifically to China, was 26 percent more than posted in the third quarter of 2006. Suzano sold 140,000 tons of pulp to Asia in 2006, against 124,000 tons in 2005. Antonio Maciel Neto said that, “with the entry into production of the second pulp line in Mucuri, in Southern Bahia, which will add a further million tons as of October 2007, Suzano forecasts that Asia‟s stake of global sales of pulp will see considerable growth.” Neto, who visited China in November, also said that the recent fall seen on the Shanghai stock exchange would not affect the world demand for pulp, which would continue to grow in 2007, “driven by China.” “So far I have seen no impact,” said the chairman of the pulp and paper company who noted there had been no suspension or cancellation f orders by Suzano‟s Chinese companies. “Mega-investments in China continue. There are not going to stop because of a fall (which occurred) a few days ago (in the financial market),” he said. Neto also noted that the Chinese plan was to increase paper production from 56 million tons to 80 million tons by the end of the decade would require more pulp. In 2006, Chinese demand for eucalyptus pulp, which is a speciality of Brazilian companies, increased 35 percent, which is higher than the market average of 12 percent. (Source: Macauhub) Print Option: Click here for MS-Word (.doc) file of PaperCuts March 07, 2007. Sidhartha Pal Das AsiaPaperMarkets.com sidhartha.pal@asiapapermarkets.com First Metso Automation’s QCS to India Metso Automation has been awarded its first paper quality control system (QCS) order from India, when Sripathi Paper & Boards Pvt. Ltd. placed an order of a PaperIQ Plus quality control system. Carter Holt posts H1 loss of $NZ5m Graeme Hart owned Carter Holt made a bottom-line loss of $NZ5 million in the six months to June 30, 2006. PPPC reports increased OCC consumption in December 2006 in Canada As per statistics released by the Montreal-based Pulp and Paper Products Council (PPPC), Canadian mills were heavy buyers of old corrugated containers (OCC) last December. Sumitomo Corporation, Nippon Paper Group, Inc. and Rengo Co., Ltd. sign business and capital alliance agreement Nippon Paper Group, Inc., Sumitomo Corporation and Rengo Co., Ltd. have entered into a business and capital alliance based on a memorandum of understanding of November 20, 2006. Suzano Papel e Celulose net sales up 11.2% to $1.4 billion in 2006; net income down 11.2% to Real 443.7 million in 2006 Suzano Papel e Celulose, one of Latin America‟s largest integrated producers of pulp and paper, announces consolidated results for the fourth quarter of 2006 (4Q06) today. NewPage narrows 4Q & FY 06 net loss; reports continuing negative effects from growing low priced coated freesheet imports from China NewPage Corporation today announced its financial results of operations for the fourth quarter and the full year 2006. SCA strengthens competitiveness through fresh US tissue investment The SCA Board of Directors has approved an investment in a new tissue paper machine for Barton, Alabama, USA. The investment amounts to MUSD 145. APP Jordan converting plant commences operation in Jordan APP Jordan, the official representative of Asia Pulp & Paper Co. (APP) in the region, announced commencing the operation of its paper converting plant in Jordan and the launch of its first product under the brand „e-paper‟ in the Jordanian market. U.S.: DOE selects six cellulosic ethanol plants for up to $385 million in federal funding U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Samuel W. Bodman today announced that DOE will invest up to $385 million for six biorefinery projects over the next four years. CEPIPRINT reports positive start to European publication paper sector in 2007 The European publication paper sector started off the New Year with a relatively positive performance in January. Mercer reports 4Q, year-end 2006 profit; results reflect strengthening pulp markets, says Chairman Revenues increased by 30.5% to euro 160.5 million from euro 123.0 million in the comparative quarter of 2005, primarily due to higher pulp prices and sales volumes from our Stendal and Celgar pulp mills. Caraustar Industries, Inc. reports 4Q/06 loss; misses by $0.02 Reuters Estimates’ consensus of $0.03 Caraustar Industries, Inc. today announced that sales from continuing operations for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2006 were $215.1 million compared to sales of $238.7 million for the same quarter in 2005. Canfor reports 4Q/06 operating loss; lumber duty refund offsets loss Canfor Corporation today reported net income of $471.8 million for the year, or $3.31 per share on a diluted basis. PaperlinX reports half-year profit after tax of A$32.7 million PaperlinX today announced profit after tax for the six months ended 31 December 2006 of $32.7 million on revenue of $3.95 billion. Temple-Inland Inc. announces transformation plan Temple-Inland Inc. announced today that its Board of Directors has approved a transformation plan to unlock shareholder value through the separation of Temple-Inland into three focused, stand-alone, public companies and the sale of its strategic timberland. Other Headlines From This Past Week Goldsmith Agio Helms announces the sale of Fox Valley Corporation to Neenah Paper, Inc. IFC to invest $40m in paper firm in India New enterprises have created over 100 jobs at UPM’s Voikkaa premises Metso Paper awards UPM Dr. Esko Harkonen the Arne Asplund Mechanical Pulping Award 2007 World Waste Technologies applies for patent covering the production of alcohol, including ethanol, through gas process Interesting: newspaper without the paper Ground-breaking duplex printer technology on show with UPM Office multifunction paper American Israeli Paper Mills announces agreement between KCTR and Unilever Wahl nominated as Norske Skog chair Mixed response the new budget from the Indian paper industry FBA reports weakening in U.S box shipments in January 2006 Canadian industrial product and raw materials prices fall in January 2007; high prices for pulp & paper Sappi to hike speciality grades prices in Europe Mitsubishi HiTec Paper hikes matt coated inkjet paper prices w.e.f. April 1, 2007 Sonoco announces second recycled paperboard price hike Rosstat reports 14.7% increase in Russia’s exports of wood and pulp-and-paper in 2006 Third Coast Bio-Fuels LLC in talks with Stora (N.A.) for ethanol plant Technology: Pulp & Paper operations are turning to the engineered-plastic cooling tower Boise posts 41% slide in 2006 net income y-o-y Longview Fibre posts $6.2 million 4Q/06 profit Port Townsend Paper Corporation Receives final court approval on DIP financing, files plan of reorganization Newark Group announces price hike on all tubes, cores, roll heads and chipboard sheets Bratsk Pulp and Containerboard Mill (Ilim Pulp) commodity output over 57,000 tonnes BIM expands in Europe with a creation of a new company in Spain Domtar document shows mill decommissioning cost at about $25 million Indonesia sees 14.5% export growth this year Australia: Further delay in pulp mill assessment Pulp firm United Fibre reports year-ended December 31 / 06 profit International Paper completes sale of Arizona Chemical to Rhone Capital for approximately $485 million Andritz: Record results in 2006 Metso Paper inaugurates a new Roll Service Center for the Iberian Peninsula Uruguay paper mill to benefit environment-company UPM Raflatac doubles the RFID tag production capacity in Finland Favini upgrades machine at its Netherlands Meerssen mill Norampac’s biomass cogen plant to get C$27M investment from Ontario Corrugated packaging manufacturers urge caution on environmental claims Greif, Inc. reports strong first quarter 2007 results Mitsubishi Paper Mills Limited announces dissolution of subsidiary OfficeMax swings to a 4rth-quarter profit Pope & Talbot announces wood pulp price increase Caraustar Industries, Inc. announces price increase on all tubes and cores produced from uncoated recycled paperboard Temple-Inland Inc corporate credit rating placed on watch negative after announcement DBRS places Temple-Inland Inc. under review – negative Icahn commends Temple-Inland management on separation deal Finland’s UPM sells off Walki Wisa unit to investment group India: HK-based ADM Capital to invest in Rama Pulp Voith receives contract to deliver high-performance winder for SCA Aschaffenburg Voith Paper optimizes Stock Preparation at Pressspanfabrik Untersachsenfeld Voith to supply rope system components for M-real’s Stockstadt mill in Germany Caraustar Industries, Inc. develops new mold, mildew and moisture resistant gypsum facing paper, SafeFace MR(TM) News briefs: Europe DuraCorp announces purchase of Menasha Packaging’s “MenashaWare” line of thermoformed corrugated products UTEK Corp. announces entering into an agreement to search for new technologies with American Israeli Paper Mills Group, Ltd. BTG to use APC to supply improved grade change control on a fine paper machine to Papeteries de Clairefontaine in France Finland’s Loparex to start release liner printing and slitting operations in Thailand SFK Pulp obtains $6 million financial assistance from Quebec government U.S. Supreme Court rules for Weyerhaeuser in antitrust suit Domtar security holders approve merger with Weyerhaeuser’s fine paper business Quebec Superior Court issues final order approving Domtar-Weyerhaeuser transaction Rank moves to file for authority over SIG bid Quality Associates, Inc. and Smurfit-Stone announce JV agreement K-TEK acquires KAB Instruments OfficeMax enhances environmental position with paper procurement policy Cascades awarded two environmental printing prizes All new Leaf Paper inventory items manufactured with Green-E certified renewable energy How “green” are magazine publishers Environmental groups slam World Bank’s support for massive Indonesian plantation increase With Russian planning to raise export taxes on logs, North American timber operations stand to benefit Story at: http://www.asiapapermarkets.com/apm/apm/common/mktbuzz_past.jsp Market Link Now members can promote their sales by displaying a catalogue of their products to buyers on this site. By creating a greater awareness of your business and your products, you will experience a higher number of enquiries and transactions. The online catalog offers a number of features that makes it an excellent tool for expanding your business in Asia Pacific and around the world. For more information contact: Rajiv Dhar at rajiv.dhar@asiapapermarkets.com. Advertising AsiaPaperMarkets is now accepting advertising for its website. For more information and to place advertisements on AsiaPaperMarkets.com, please contact us at: advertise@asiapapermarkets.com Classified Ads AsiapaperMarkets.com now offers a Classified Advertising section. The direct link is: http://www.asiapapermarkets.com/classifieds/viewclassifieds.jsp For more in-depth stories go to the index where you will find Notes on North America, you‟ll see we‟re keeping an Eye on Europe and watching the Asia Pacific region. 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