GUIDELINES
March 2003
Official Used Car Guide Company Industry Summary
This Issue:
N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Releases Vehicle Retention Rankings Price Trends in Vehicle Segments and Body Styles Visit N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide at the 2003 CBA Finance Conference and Tradeshow in Dallas
Used Car Prices Continue Fall
Trucks Pull Index Lower For Second Consecutive Month
$12,000 $11,500 $11,000 $10,500 $10,000 $9,500 Mar Apr Nov May Aug Dec Sep Jun Jan Oct Feb Jul
Key Figures: Used Vehicles
Wholesale Price Index -0.72% Segment Performance Passenger Cars: 2.1% Vans: 1.2% Luxury Cars: 1.0% Crossover Utility: -0.9% Sport Utility: -2.0% Pickups: -2.3% Leading Vehicle Makes* Saturn: +5.0% Ford: +3.4% Dodge Cars: +2.3% Honda: +2.3%
*3 month moving avg.
Used Car Index for model years 1996-2003. Source: N.A.D.A./NAAA AuctionNet
New Car Sales Fall 7%
GM Sales Down 19% as Industry Battles War, Weather, and the Economy
1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Apr Feb Aug Jun Dec Feb Oct
February New Car Sales Units: 1,218,968 Percent Decline: -7.0% Car/Truck Mix Trucks: 637,898 Cars: 581,070 Leading Manufacturers Honda: +13.8% Subaru: +10.7% BMW: +6.6% Mazda: +5.8% VW Group:+2.5%
“2003 is starting off on a sour note, but we are optimistic that things will turn around in the second half.” - Mustafa Mohatarem Chief Economist General Motors
Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports and Automotive News Used vehicles use a month over month comparison, while new vehicles use a year over year comparison.
N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Company 8400 Westpark Drive McLean, VA 22102 (703) 760-7583 www.nada.com
March 2003
February Peak Performers N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Value Retention Rankings
Value Retained through Auctions for Model Year 2002 Vehicles
Vehicle Mini Cooper Toyota Sequoia SR5 4WD Lexus ES300 BMW X5 4.4L Lexus LS430 Ford Thunderbird Audi A4 3.0L Quattro Honda CR-V LX 4WD BMW 525I GMC Yukon XL % Value Retained 113.42% 99.71% 99.49% 99.27% 98.60% 98.60% 97.75% 96.87% 96.16% 94.63%
120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Le xus: 90.55% Mini: 113.42% Porsche : 95.84% Audi: 95.01% BMW: 91.77%
Value Retained through Auctions for Model Year 2001 Vehicles
Vehicle Acura MDX 4WD Toyota Sequoia SR5 4WD Chevrolet Corvette Coupe Lexus LS430 Toyota Rav-4 BMW X5 4.4L BMW 525I GMC Yukon 4WD Lexus RX300 4WD Chevrolet Tahoe 4WD % Value Retained 89.01% 88.94% 88.11% 87.22% 84.59% 83.11% 82.79% 82.25% 81.72% 81.52%
100% Porsche : 84.95% 80% Le xus: 78.07% 60% BMW : 74.09% 40% Audi: 71.90% 20% Me rce de s: 71.35% 0%
Value Retained through Auctions for Model Year 2000 Vehicles
% Value Retained Chevrolet Corvette Coupe 77.95% BMW X5 76.57% Toyota MR2 Spyder Convertible 74.22% Lexus RX300 4WD 73.91% Honda Odyssey LX 73.77% Honda S2000 72.77% Mercedes Benz CL500 Coupe 71.95% GMC Yukon XL 70.35% Toyota 4Runner 69.85% Jeep Wrangler 4.0L Sport 4WD 69.55% Vehicle
100% Porsche : 72.79% 80% Le xus: 66.91% 60% BMW: 62.89% 40% Merce de s: 61.94% 20% 0% Honda: 61.80%
About Our Rankings: Value Retention is computed using a proprietary invoice calculation developed by the N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Company then compared to February’s average wholesale price as represented in the AuctionNet database. Vehicles with an insufficient sample size were excluded. These vehicles include the 2002 Acura MDX, and the 2000 - 02 Porsche 911.
March 2003
February 2003 Sales Trends
Sales Percentage by Model Year
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Mar Jul Sep May Nov Jan
Sales Percentage by Type
100%
Other Repo
2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996
80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Jul Sep Mar May Nov Jan
Dealer Fleet/Lease Manufacturer/ Factory
Average Price by Model Year
$20,000 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 Mar May MY2000 Jul S ep MY2001 Nov Jan MY2002
Average Price and Average Mileage
$12,000 $11,500 $11,000 $10,500 $10,000 $9,500 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Price Mileage 49,000 48,500 48,000 47,500 47,000 46,500 46,000 45,500 45,000
Source: N.A.D.A../NAAA AuctionNet
Official Used Car Guide Company Industry Summary
Published monthly by the N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Company Scott Lilja - Executive Director Patricia Erney - Managing Editor Kris Pritchard - Data Analysis Manager Terrence Wynne - Import Car Editor Sean Snyder - Domestic Car Editor Laurence Dixon - Light Truck Editor
To be added to the distribution list please e-mail kpritchard@nada.org
March 2003
Vehicle Body Style Analysis
Convertibles
12 Month Depreciation: 12.31%
10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% Sep Nov Jan Jul Mar May 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% -25.00% Sep Mar May Nov Industry Industry Nov Industry Nov Jan Jan Jan Jul Coupes
Coupes
12 Month Depreciation: 18.51%
Convertibles
Industry
Minivans
12 Month Depreciation: 16.12%
5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% -25.00% Sep Jan Jul Mar Nov May 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% -25.00%
Sedans
12 Month Depreciation: 12.63%
Jul S edans Jul Pickup
Mar
Minivans
Industry
Sport Utility
12 Month Depreciation: 16.51%
5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% -25.00% Sep Jan Jul Mar Nov May 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% -25.00% Mar
Pickup Trucks
12 Month Depreciation: 9.54%
May
S UV
Industry
Source: N.A.D.A./NAAA AuctionNet
May
Sep
Sep
March 2003
Vehicle Segment Analysis
Passenger Cars
12 Month Depreciation: 14.66%
5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% -25.00% Sep Nov Jan Jul Mar May 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% -25.00% Sep Mar May Nov Industry Industry Nov Industry Nov Jan Jan Jan Jul Lux Cars Jul CUV Jul Pickup
Luxury Cars
12 Month Depreciation: 12.05%
Pass Car
Industry
Sport Utility
12 Month Depreciation: 17.58%
5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% -25.00% Sep Jan Jul Mar Nov May 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% -25.00% Mar
Crossover Utility
12 Month Depreciation: 10.71%
S UV
Industry
Vans
12 Month Depreciation: 15.90%
5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% -25.00% Sep Mar May Nov Jan Jul 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% -25.00% Mar
Pickup Trucks
12 Month Depreciation: 9.54%
May
Vans
Industry
Source: N.A.D.A./NAAA AuctionNet
May
Sep
Sep
March 2003
February Key Facts and Figures
Top Selling Models: Year to Date February 2003
CARS Accord Camry Taurus Civic Corolla Impala Focus Cavalier Altima Malibu 56,784 55,348 53,418 44,155 36,980 36,823 35,321 34,182 29,641 24,098 TRUCKS Ford F Series Silverado Ram Pickup Explorer Ranger TrailBlazer Caravan Windstar Grand Cherokee Econoline
Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports
115,847 80,260 58,543 51,599 36,352 34,821 34,280 24,872 24,556 23,782
AuctionNet Volume Leaders
Period: 2/1 - 2/28 Volumes
AuctionNet Volume by Model Year
2003 1996 2 % 5 % 1997 7% 24% 2002 1998 1999 2000 8%
2002 Ford Taurus 2002 Mercury Sable 2002 Dodge Grand Caravan 2002 Dodge Intrepid 2001 Ford Ranger 2002 Toyota Camry 2000 Ford Ranger 2000 Nissan Altima 2000 Ford F150 2002 Ford Windstar
7,736 4,315 3,767 3,756 3,466 3,383 3,198 2,771 2,391 2,338
2001 13%
13%
Source: N.A.D.A./NAAA AuctionNet
27%
Average Price by Model Year
$14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: N.A.D.A./NAAA AuctionNet
Model Year Price Trends
5% 3% 1% -1% -3% -5%
February 2003 vs January 2003 Source: N.A.D.A./NAAA AuctionNet
$11,979 $11,350 $8,997 $6,190 $4,960 $3,760
$12,723
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
March 2003
CBA Automobile Finance Conference
Visit N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Co. at CBA Automobile Finance Conference and Tradeshow
Stop by and see us, March 9th - 11th, at the CBA
Automobile Finance Conference and Tradeshow in Dallas. We’ll be in Booths 50 - 51, showcasing our award-winning website, www.nada.com/b2b. When you subscribe to our online values, you get access to nine guides, plus the option to add auction data, with 24-7 access. Use it to accelerate the loan application tracking/approval process, easily value your portfolio and reduce loss and collateral risk. Try it out at our booth during the show and see how it can help you do your job more efficiently.
About N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Company
Each month, we mail nearly five times as many N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guides as our nearest competitor. To create our nine regional editions of the Official Used Car Guide, N.A.D.A.’s editorial team collect and analyze over half a million auto-related transactions per month, including both wholesale and retail sales. This data is collected from automobile manufacturers, new and used car dealers, major newspapers and over 140 auctions nationwide. N.A.D.A.’s analysts further process economic trends, location, weather, seasons, environmental concerns and governmental changes. N.A.D.A. projects the most market-reflective values. The Official Used Car Guide was a vital, necessary product back in 1933, and it remains so today. From its small beginnings, the N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide has expanded and serves as the base out of which all our other products have grown, including, N.A.D.A. e-Valuator®, N.A.D.A. e-Valuator® for Dealers, ATD/N.A.D.A. e-Valuator® for Commercial Trucks, ATD/N.A.D.A. Official Commercial Truck Guide®, Official Older Used Car Guide®, N.A.D.A. Developers’ Tools, Raw Data, Historical Data, N.A.D.A. XML Services, AuctionNet® Online, and more! While other vehicle valuation organizations may provide values for varied niche markets, we focus on providing market reflective vehicle valuations for: banking & finance, credit unions, government agencies, insurance companies, fleet/leasing, dealers, auctions, manufacturers, and rental agencies. This means that you get a data provider who understands the unique challenges you face in the automotive industry today, and who can respond to you quickly to help meet your vehicle valuation needs. As the N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Company moves into the 21st century, we plan on remaining the gold standard for the next millennium and beyond. We are committed to providing our customers with the highest quality market-reflective products and services, as the leader in the used vehicle valuation industry.
ACCOUNT EXECUTIVES
For General Information on Products and Services: 1-800-544-6232 James Gibson Business Development Manager jgibson@nada.org Steve Stafford Financial Industry sstafford@nada.org Dan Ruddy Insurance Industry druddy@nada.org Marie Andrews Government Industry mandrews@nada.org Doug Ott Vehicle Remarketing Segment dott@nada.org