CIMB - COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific

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					February 4, 2013




   ASIA PACIFIC
                                            COMMODITIES STRATEGY




                    Notes from the Field
                                             Calmer waters ahead
                                             After a year in which commodity markets struggled for direction, a
                                             gradual improvement in the macro environment should result in a
                                             clearer path ahead. This path looks increasingly positive for
                                             commodities, driven by market concerns over tail risks subsiding, a
                                             continuation of commodity-intensive growth in China, and growing
                                             supply side risks. As such, we remain broadly positive across the sector.
 Daniel Hynes
 T +61 2 9694 6092                             Figure 1: Short-term commodity outlook
 E daniel.hynes@cimb.com
                                                                      Overall          Bullish             Neutral
                                                                                                         Natural Gas,            Bearish
 Warren Edney                                                                                          Uranium, Thermal
 T +61 3 9612 1557                              Energy                 Neutral           Oil                 Coal
 E warren.edney@cimb.com
                                                                                                         Copper, Zinc,
 Daniel Blake                                   Base Metals        Slightly Bullish   Lead, Tin           Aluminium               Nickel
 T +61 2 9694 6053                              Precious Metals        Bullish        Gold, PGM
 E daniel.blake@cimb.com                        Steel Making Raw
                                                Materials              Neutral                        Iron Ore, Met Coal

  “Tough times helped many                                                                                                         SOURCE: CIMB

  commodities producers
  become lean and mean                       In our view, this stability is a                  social/environmental          hurdles         and
  through consolidation,                     significant positive and should lead to           necessary reform.
  mergers and cost-cutting.                  an end of the destocking phase and
                                             stronger growth in 2013. For                      Commodity prices
  All that excess supply has                 commodity markets, the pick-up in                 In the near term, we expect
  been sopped up.”                           China’s economy has already resulted              commodity prices to continue their
                            ─ Jim Rogers
                                             in an improvement in demand, and                  improvement; some have already
                                             with it a rally in key commodities                gained more than 5%. However,
                                             (such as iron ore). Even a modest                 intra-commodity divergence should
                                             recovery in Europe and North                      be     significant    as     underlying
                                             America will be viewed as a positive              fundamentals have more sway in the
                                             in commodity markets, and we                      direction of prices. We believe crude
                                             believe presents good opportunities               oil, thermal coal, lead, tin and PGMs
                                             in 2013.                                          should be the best performers over
                                                                                               the year.
                                             China’s economy picking up
                                                                                               On the flip side, we remain bearish on
                                             Real activity indicators in China
                                                                                               aluminium and zinc. Both are
                                             marked        a       trough       in
                                                                                               fundamentally oversupplied markets,
                                             August-September and have been
                                                                                               only helped by inventory financing
                                             quickly gathering momentum since
                                                                                               deals that continue to artificially
                                             then. We believe the pick-up was
                                                                                               tighten their markets.
                                             driven by easier credit and fiscal
                                             policy from mid-2012, an alleviation              Iron ore and copper should be well-
                                             of the inventory-destocking cycle and             supported in 1H13 as a China-led
                                             improved corporate/SOE confidence                 recovery     boosts     infrastructure
                                             through, and subsequent to, a                     spending. However, both look likely
                                             successful leadership transition. We              to face headwinds later in the year as
                                             believe momentum will continue to                 supply increasingly overtakes demand
                                             gather into 1H13, although the                    growth.
                                             government appears reluctant to let
                                             growth materially exceed its 7.5%
                                             target given the threat of inflation,



IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES. INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
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COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




KEY CHARTS
 China’s IP and electricity generation growth                            % yoy                                                                                % yoy
 marked a trough in Aug/Sep 2012                                   20%                                                                                                30%
 IP growth edged up to 10.3% yoy in December 2012 from
 its trough of 8.9% yoy in August. The slowdown in                 16%                                                                                                20%

 electricity generation turned negative (-0.9% yoy) briefly
 in June, but remained weak through 3Q12 (+2% yoy)                 12%                                                                                                10%

 before picking up in 4Q12 (7.4% yoy).
                                                                    8%                                                                                                0%


                                                                    4%                                                                                                -10%
                                                                      2000           2002         2004           2006        2008        2010         2012


                                                                                      Chinese IP growth (lhs)               Electricity generation growth (rhs)




 GDP growth to hold c8% yoy in 2013                                        % yoy                                                                              % yoy
 China’s GDP growth finished the year at 7.9% yoy,                 15%                                                                                                40%

 although the quarterly growth rate was a little firmer, at
                                                                   13%                                                                                                32%
 8.2% annualised. The resilience in headline growth was a
 little surprising given the slowdown in the                       11%                                                                                                24%

 manufacturing and export sector (with an inventory                9%                                                                                                 16%
 destocking cycle contributing), and the extent of
 weakness in the industrial activity indicators.                   7%                                                                                                 8%


                                                                   5%                                                                                                 0%
                                                                     1997          1999       2001       2003      2005       2007      2009       2011       2013


                                                                                              Real GDP growth (lhs)              Lending growth (rhs)




 Strong pick-up in China’s steel output has                                12m rolling total, m                                                           Mt, monthly
 supported good iron ore import volumes                            2,400                                                                                                70

 The strong relationship between China’s crude steel               2,000                                                                                                60

 output and iron ore import volumes remains in place,              1,600
                                                                                                                                                                        50

 given a stable-to-rising import dependency. We also               1,200
                                                                                                                                                                        40

 show the related trend in steel production versus                  800
                                                                                                                                                                        30

 construction activity (floor space started, in grey).                                                                                                                  20
                                                                    400
 Acknowledging timing differences of starts vis-a-vis steel                                                                                                             10
                                                                         0                                                                                              0
 usage, we note that steel production has increased well                 2000          2002          2004          2006         2008           2010          2012
 in advance of lead indicators of construction activity,
 with our forecast for a pick-up in developer activity a key                         Floor space started (lhs)                   Crude steel production s.a. (rhs)
                                                                                     Iron ore imports (rhs)
 condition to support current steel output levels.

 Real monetary policy eased from mid-2012,                            % yoy                                                                                  % yoy
 supporting recovery into 1H13                                     14%                                                                                                30%
 Our real monetary policy gauge shows the extent of
 growth stimulus coming from the credit channel                    12%                                                                                                20%

 (financial deepening). Total bank loan growth of                  10%                                                                                                10%
 Rmb8.2trn came in at the middle of the unofficial
 Rmb8trn-8.5trn guidance (15% yoy). Easing inflation               8%                                                                                                 0%

 boosted the effect of this increase in the nominal credit
                                                                   6%                                                                                                 -10%
 stock on the real economy. However, we note early signs
 that this process is reversing, with a weak run rate of           4%                                                                                                 -20%
                                                                     1998          2000       2002       2004       2006       2008       2010        2012
 credit growth into year-end (11% 3m-annualised) and a
                                                                                   Real GDP growth (lhs)                Real credit less IP growth (12m lead, rhs)
 slight pick-up in inflation.
                                                                                                              SOURCES: CIMB FORECASTS, COMPANY REPORTS




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November 14, 2012




                                        Calmer waters
 Table of Contents                      1. THE OUTLOOK
 1. THE OUTLOOK                   p.3
 2. STRATEGY OUTLOOK SUMMARY     p.10   1.1 Commodity markets to relish the end of the acute phase
 3. BASE METALS                  p.12   of the cycle
 4. PRECOUS METALS               p.24
                                        After a bruising year that saw the global economy lurch from one crisis to
 5.STEEL MAKING RAW MATERIIALS   p.25
                                        another, it is no wonder that commodity markets struggled for direction. The
 6.ENERGY                        p.28
                                        normal saviour, China, also suffered what seemed an endless period of
                                        weakening growth, shaking the confidence of even the most bullish commodity
                                        analysts.
                                        However, recent data suggest that after suffering weakness in the latter part of
                                        2012, both global industrial production and trade have troughed and are now
                                        showing signs of upward momentum. Indeed, China’s recent trade data showed
                                        a strong pick-up in exports (+14.1% yoy to US$199.23bn), driven by intra-Asian
                                        demand (exports to ASEAN +27.8% yoy). More pleasing was the improvement
                                        in demand from developed economies, with both North America (+10% yoy,
                                        strongest in six months), and the euro area (+2.3%, strongest in seven months)
                                        showing strong growth.
                                        In our view, this stability is a significant positive, and should lead to an end of
                                        the destocking phase and stronger growth rates in 2013. For commodity
                                        markets, the pickup in China’s economy has already resulted in an improvement
                                        in demand, and with it a rally in key commodities (such as iron ore). Even a
                                        modest recovery in Europe and North America will be viewed as a positive in
                                        commodity markets, and presents good opportunities in 2013.
                                        Outside of an improvement in economic growth, there are several other factors
                                        that will support commodities in 2013. These include:
                                           Monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative, supported by very low
                                            yields. This should keep money flowing into hard assets such as
                                            commodities.
                                           Supply-side constraints remain. While hard to forecast, the likelihood of
                                            them occurring remains high.
                                           The destocking phase most commodities suffered through in 2012 has
                                            ended and most markets should undergo a distinct restocking phase, which
                                            will keep apparent demand relatively high.


                                        A more stable period ahead …
                                        With financial instability the key theme of markets in 2012, commodity market
                                        fundamentals took a back seat to the risk-on, risk-off phases. As such,
                                        risk-taking appetite appeared to hit a record low level late in 2012.
                                        However, the extreme limits to which commodity risk aversion has been pushed
                                        is the main reason we have seen such a strong bounce back in prices so far in
                                        2013. This has been exacerbated by the positioning in the market, with most
                                        investors keeping underweight positions.
                                        The rally at the start of the calendar year has been a hallmark of commodity
                                        markets in recent years. Both 2011 and 2012 saw strong rallies, before petering
                                        out in the face of weakening economic conditions. This year, we expect the
                                        stabilisation of financial markets to allow some solid fundamentals to shine
                                        through to the surface. This in turn should result in generally positive price
                                        trends for most commodities, although tail risks should not be ignored.




                                                           3
COMMODITIES - OVERALL
November 14, 2012




                        We see three key trends under way that underpin this positive short-term
                        outlook:
                        1.   China’s growth risks are subsiding.
                        2.   Market concerns over tail risks are subsiding.
                        3.   Supply side risks appear to be on the rise. The days of bringing on supply at
                             any cost are behind us.
                        In terms of China’s growth, key drivers of commodity demand such as
                        construction activity and fixed asset investment have all picked up recently and
                        business confidence is rising. This has no doubt had a hand in stopping the
                        destocking cycle and in fact given confidence to many consumers to start
                        restocking.
                        The successful mitigation of the US fiscal cliff (at least for now) has also helped
                        ease the general threat of tail risks in the market. While the risks are far from
                        totally averted (Europe still faces many significant hurdles), the market has
                        started to look much brighter than it has for some time.
                        Supply side risks such as capital efficiency (ie, projects being delayed due to
                        poor returns), labour issues in mining, resource nationalism and bad weather
                        are likely to persist or even deteriorate in 2013. However, it is the more
                        measured approach by major resource companies that should keep supply
                        growth in check. As we highlighted in our last Commodity Strategy report, lower
                        commodity prices and a realization that China’s economic growth will not
                        return to the historical +10%, has resulted in many resource companies
                        refocusing on quality rather than quantity. In other words, the days of supply at
                        any cost are likely over. As BHP Billiton’s management stated at a market
                        briefing late last year, “our focus has shifted from the marginal tonne to the
                        capital efficient tonne”.
                        This is likely to have a wide-ranging effect on commodity markets over the short
                        to medium term. While projects that are currently under construction are
                        unlikely to be suspended, it will push out the expected surplus that many
                        markets were facing after project pipelines ballooned under record high
                        commodity prices.


                        … but ignore the tail risks at your peril

                        Geopolitical risks
                        Front and centre of geopolitical risks in 2013 remains Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
                        International pressure continues to end, or sharply reduce its nuclear
                        enrichment program and that pressure will continue in 2013, if not escalate, as
                        Iran believes it has a right to enrich uranium for non-military uses.
                        The US, under the Obama administration, appears reluctant to use military
                        confrontation and continually stresses the need to continue with the diplomatic
                        course. At the very end of November, the US Senate passed another set of
                        sanctions against Iran’s trade in energy and shipping, aiming to restrict trade
                        with Iran in other commodities such as precious metals, metallurgical coal,
                        aluminium, steel and sales of software for industrial processes.
                        With both sides still poles apart, we expect important inflection point to be
                        reached this year. The US and other Western counterparts will be faced with the
                        difficult choice of allowing Iran to reach the point of nuclear capability, or
                        taking military action. Obviously, either situation represents a significant risk to
                        oil and other commodity markets.




                                           4
COMMODITIES - OVERALL
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                                                                  Resource nationalism
                                                                  We see continued risk of resource nationalism affecting the supply of key
                                                                  commodities over the next 12 months.
                                                                  In Indonesia, the government is taking a multi-pronged approach to bolstering
                                                                  the national income in the short and long term. The government is reviewing
                                                                  and modifying foreign ownership limits, export levies and mandated
                                                                  beneficiation to see more value-added production domestically. We note that
                                                                  political risk will remain elevated in Indonesia heading into the crucial 2014
                                                                  elections.
                                                                  Indonesia’s introduction of export levies has already cut bauxite and nickel
                                                                  laterite exports to China. The 20% tax on exports of 14 unprocessed minerals
                                                                  announced in May 2012 (including gold, copper, silver, tin, chromium, lead,
                                                                  molybdenum, bauxite, platinum, iron ore, nickel, iron sand, antimony and
                                                                  manganese) was expanded to 65 mineral categories consisting of 21 metal ores,
                                                                  10 non-metal ores and 34 rock sediment ores. Indonesia was the source of more
                                                                  than 60% of China’s nickel laterite imports in 2011 and 2012; this has now fallen
                                                                  to 25-30%. While almost 90% of China’s bauxite imports came from Indonesia,
                                                                  this fell to 15% in July 2012 and has recovered to 37% in December 2012.


                                                                  1.2 Commodity outlook
                                                                  In the near term, we expect commodity prices to continue their improvement,
                                                                  which has already seen gains of more than 5% in some cases following the fiscal
                                                                  cliff settlement on 1 January 2013. But intra-commodity divergence should be
                                                                  significant as underlying fundamentals have a bigger say in the direction of
                                                                  prices. We believe crude oil, thermal coal, lead, tin and PGM’s should be the
                                                                  best performers over the course of the year.
                                                                  On the flip side, we remain bearish on aluminium and zinc. Both are
                                                                  fundamentally oversupplied markets, further aided by inventory financing deals
                                                                  that continue to artificially tighten the markets.
                                                                  Iron ore and copper should be well supported in 1H13 as a China-led recovery
                                                                  boosts infrastructure spending, but both are likely to face headwinds later in the
                                                                  year as supply increasingly overtakes demand growth. In the case of iron ore,
                                                                  the phenomenal performance since collapsing below $90/t in September last
                                                                  year exposes it to some downside risk. Activity after Chinese New Year will have
                                                                  a big say in whether current price levels will be maintained.

  Figure 2: Performance of commodities in 2012                                                 Figure 3: YTD performance of commodities in 2013

   -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0%    0.0%     5.0%   10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%           -6.0%        -4.0%     -2.0%         0.0%       2.0%        4.0%    6.0%      8.0%    10.0%
                                                                                                                               Title:
                                                                               Tin                                                                                                   Iron Ore
                                                                                                                               Source:
                                                                      Corn                                                                                              Platinum
                                                                    Platinum                                                                                         Tin
                                                                   Iron Ore                                                    Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
                                                                                                                                                   Nickel
                                                               Lead                                                                                        Copper
                                                              Soy                                                                                       Aluminium
                                                           Zinc                                                                                         WTI
                                                       Nat Gas                                                                                      Silver
                                                     Gold                                                                                   Lead
                                                   Copper                                                                                   Brent
                                                  Silver                                                                     Corn
                                               Wheat                                                                        Cotton
                                Aluminium                                                                                     Gold
                                    Brent                                                                                Thermal
                       Nickel                                                                                          Zinc
                       WTI                                                                                       Soy
          Thermal                                                                                             Sugar
        Cotton                                                                                       Wheat
    Sugar                                                                                       Nat Gas


                                                                       SOURCE: BLOOMBERG                                                                               SOURCE: BLOOMBERG


                                                                  From a fundamental perspective, with growth rates in demand returning to
                                                                  more modest levels (compared with the double digit rates seen over 2005-09),
                                                                  commodity markets will tend to be driven more by supply side issues.


                                                                                           5
COMMODITIES - OVERALL
November 14, 2012




                          Figure 4: Commodity price forecast changes
                                                                    2012     2013     2014     2015     2016     2017

                          Base Metals
                          Copper                   $/lb              3.61     3.73     3.67     3.38     3.24     2.99
                                                   $/t              7,970    8,225    8,100    7,450    7,150    6,600
                                                   % change         0.0%    -0.3%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
                          Aluminium                $/lb              0.92     0.96     1.01     1.03     1.05     1.15
                                                   $/t              2,034    2,125    2,225    2,275    2,325    2,535
                                                   % change         0.0%    -1.2%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
                          Lead                     $/lb              0.92     1.02     1.02     1.05     0.99     0.95
                                                   $/t              2,032    2,250    2,250    2,313    2,175    2,100
                                                   % change         0.0%     2.9%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
                          Nickel                   $/lb              8.02     8.90    10.21    10.49     9.64     8.48
                                                   $/t             17,673   19,625   22,500   23,125   21,250   18,700
                                                   % change         0.0%    -0.6%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
                          Zinc                     $/lb              0.89     1.00     1.09     1.09     1.06     1.00
                                                   $/t              1,954    2,200    2,413    2,413    2,338    2,200
                                                   % change         0.0%    -2.2%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

                          Precious Metals
                          Gold                     $/oz             1,669    1,688    1,425    1,250    1,138    1,100
                                                   % change         0.0%    -0.7%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
                          Silver                   $/oz             31.17    30.00    26.00    22.00    19.13    18.00
                                                   % change         0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
                          Platinum                 $/oz             1,551    1,800    1,725    1,675    1,775    1,850
                                                   % change         0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
                          Palladium                $/oz              644      800      925     1,000     813      700
                                                   % change         0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

                          Energy
                          Oil Brent                $/bbl            94.19    94.00    91.00    89.00    89.15    90.00
                                                   % change         0.0%     1.1%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
                          Henry Hub Gas            $/mcf             3.02     4.00     4.50     5.00     5.00     5.00
                                                   % change         0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
                          Thermal Coal             $/t              96.96   103.50   115.00   125.00   117.50   100.00
                                                   % change         0.0%     1.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
                          Uranium                  $/t              48.89    52.50    55.00    57.50    65.00    65.00
                                                   % change         0.0%    -4.5%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

                          Steel Making Raw Materials
                          Iron Ore                 $/t CFR China     128      138      134      128      121      100
                                                   change (%)       0.0%     5.8%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
                          Hard Coking Coal         $/t FOB Aus       206      186      230      233      223      180
                                                   change (%)       0.0%    -0.7%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
                                                                                               SOURCE: CIMB FORECASTS




                        Crude oil
                        We expect Brent to trade in a US$100-120 per barrel range in 2013. Political
                        tensions around uncertainty in the Middle East and the Iran issue will remain a
                        factor in 2013, and in fact represent potential upside to prices.
                        We believe the market can absorb the expected 2013 gain in non-OPEC supply
                        of 1.4 million b/d, without a significant fall in oil prices. Clearly, large scale risk
                        to oil demand growth remains, and prices could be at risk to fall below US$100
                        per barrel into the US$90 to US$95 per barrel range for Brent, barring further
                        disruptions in the Middle East.
                        We also expect total OPEC crude oil production to show a small year-on-year
                        (yoy) increase, which should help push prices lower. Political risks also exist and
                        the price outlook could be influenced strongly upward by political turmoil in the
                        Middle East such as the ongoing war in Syria, the threat of regional conflict and
                        pressure against Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.




                                              6
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                        Thermal coal
                        Over the next 12 months, it increasingly appears that demand-side issues will
                        gradually drive a market recovery in the thermal coal market.
                        Demand for thermal coal will increase substantially in China and India in 2013,
                        slowly and steadily lifting prices from their current low levels. We forecast
                        China and India to increase imports by a combined 35 Mt in 2013, in part due to
                        recovering external economies in the Atlantic basin. In Europe, coal demand
                        will grow in Germany and some parts of Eastern Europe but fall elsewhere,
                        resulting in an overall fall in demand.
                        We expect delivered European (ARA) coal prices to hover around US$90/t for
                        most of the year. Newcastle coal prices, which increased from US$81/t to
                        US$90/t in November before falling slightly, should perform a little better.
                        These remain well supported at US$90-95/t, but should start steadily rising
                        during the first quarter of 2013 before hitting US$100/t by early 2Q13. The low
                        price of domestic thermal coal in China will continue to impact the
                        competitiveness of Pacific basin seaborne coal.
                        Lower quality thermal coal prices are still relatively weak, although cutbacks in
                        production in Indonesia will support the current price floor.


                        Base metals
                        Base metal prices rallied into the New Year on the back of encouraging
                        economic data from China, and a positive resolution of the US fiscal cliff
                        negotiations. This has been stronger-than-expected and as a result, we have
                        revised up our 1Q12 price forecasts.
                        The market still looks exposed to bouts of selling as demand for many base
                        metals remains linked to a recovery in developed economies. But going forward,
                        we expect an increasing divergence in price movements.
                        We have seen a broad increase in inventory across the market - in copper in
                        particular, but also in aluminium and zinc. In the case of the latter two metals,
                        we continue to hear they are being held in financing deals and unavailable to the
                        market. In the year so far, LME zinc inventories have risen a whopping 407kt,
                        much larger than our estimate of this year’s surplus of 195kt.
                        The increase in copper inventories is more worrying. LME inventories have
                        risen almost every day since the beginning of December and are up 54kt so far
                        this year. SHFE inventories are up 8.3kt in December, and we believe that
                        Chinese bonded inventories have also continued to rise in excess of 750kt.
                        We maintain our bearish view on aluminium, with the assumption that the
                        run-up in prices was positioning-related and would be short lived. Lead, by
                        contrast, has outperformed the rest of the complex and is the only metal to still
                        hold on to its recent highs. Lead’s fundamental outlook for 2013 is positive, and
                        we think that it should show strong price performance relative to the complex.
                        Tin’s performance is also likely to be positive in our view, with expectations of a
                        continued deficit over the next 18 months. LME-cancelled warrants remain
                        elevated (representing close to 60% of stocks), refined imports into China are
                        well-supported by the arbitrage, and the mine supply side is fettered with
                        underperformance.
                        We remain positive towards nickel, with an imminent restocking phase coupled
                        with more unplanned disruptions likely to support prices in 2013. The typical
                        cycle of an early-year restocking phase followed by demand moderation appears
                        to be playing out again in 2013. Contributing factors include the upside of
                        steady economic improvement and a stronger China than seen in the past,
                        boosting demand to a greater level than currently projected. However, it is the
                        continued supply disruptions that could really change this market quickly. We
                        have reduced our 2013 supply forecasts by 85kt (or 5%) compared with previous
                        estimates due to delays or technical issues at new large projects, notably
                        Onça-Puma, Barro Alto and VNC. As a result, we do not anticipate the market to

                                           7
COMMODITIES - OVERALL
November 14, 2012




                        be over-supplied in the near-term, thereby increasing the likelihood of future
                        prices remaining above the marginal cost level.
                        Overall, we see base metals largely benefiting from the expected pick-up in
                        economic activity in China. This improvement in sentiment and the expected
                        increase in liquidity in the market should see base metals well supported.


                        Steel-making raw materials
                        A steady improvement in China’s demand and continued supply side issues
                        have been conducive in creating conditions that have driven iron ore prices up
                        over 80% since falling below US$90/t for the first time since 2009. With prices
                        edging towards US$160/t, the likelihood of further gains appears to be
                        diminishing by the day. Despite this, fundamentals remain supportive and thus
                        we do not see any substantial fall in prices, rather, a gradual price fade.
                        Prices have recovered more quickly than we (and the market) had expected. An
                        improving steel production profile from China in 4Q12, as well as an end to the
                        destocking of steel at the consumer level has underpinned this recovery. But it
                        has been the supply-side issues that have pushed prices to where they are today.
                        These factors include:
                           Sharper-than-expected fall in exports from India (as we highlighted last
                            month in our Commodities Update: “Indian iron ore exports grind to a halt”,
                            5 December 2012).
                           Colder-than-expected winter in northern China has constrained the ability
                            of domestic mines to respond to higher prices. As China moves into spring,
                            production should stabilise and begin to edge up in response to higher
                            prices. This is likely to fuel a retreat in prices in 2Q13 as supply once again
                            catches up with demand.
                           Iron ore inventories remain at historically low levels; in particular, mills are
                            believed to be carrying below normal working levels, which has resulted in
                            buyers looking to the international market during the current short squeeze.
                        Therefore, our expectation for iron ore prices in the short term is that prices will
                        remain relatively well supported in 1Q13, and even early in 2Q13 before they
                        begin retreating on the back of slowing demand and increasing supply.
                        We continue to view the iron ore market favourably over the longer term. The
                        price-induced decline in iron ore prices late last year was a positive for the
                        long-term iron ore price as it led to the deferral and potentially permanent
                        cancellation of mine developments.
                        The industry and CIMB had been forecasting an oversupply of iron from
                        2015-17 onwards due to the expansion of iron ore mines in Australia, and the
                        development of new mines in Brazil and Guinea. The surplus now looks like it
                        will be substantially less with junior Australian miners finding it difficult to
                        obtain finance, and the likes of RIO and Vale have slowed or postponed
                        developments like Simandou and Sierra Sul. Our view is that the delays should
                        lead to a market where developments are based on underlying demand, and
                        prices reflect realistic returns rather than what BHP has termed “scarcity
                        pricing”.
                        The downside for met coal prices looks limited, with demand for high quality
                        coking coal remaining robust and a small number of supply cutbacks in 2012
                        due to rising costs suggesting that any further weakness would see a rapid
                        market response. Despite steel production improving across Asia, prices may
                        struggle to match the gains seen in iron ore.
                        Supply disruptions are unlikely to be a factor during the current wet season in
                        Australia as it appears that a normal summer should result in few
                        weather-related disruptions in 2013.
                        However, mitigating this gain is the disruption to Canadian supply. The collapse
                        of Berth 1 at Canada’s Westshore Terminal in Vancouver following a capsized

                                           8
COMMODITIES - OVERALL
November 14, 2012




                        vessel ploughing through the trestle structure could result in a three months
                        loss of capacity of up to 4.5Mtpa. While the accident has failed to move prices
                        significantly, it should support prices in 1Q13.
                        Rising costs have taken their toll with Australian and US operations curtailed.
                        While the tonnage involved is small, it suggests that we have hit a floor in prices.
                        There have been some promising signs of a pick-up in the Asian steel markets,
                        but levels remain subdued. The expected reconstruction-led rebound in steel
                        output in 2013 should see Japanese demand for met coal. In China,
                        international prices remain at a discount which should continue to support
                        imports, but Asian demand remains subjected to significant tail risks, namely
                        weak export markets.


                        Precious metals
                        Last year was frustrating for gold investors, with the yellow metal rallying
                        strongly on two occasions, only to give back those gains quite quickly. The
                        combination of diminished demand for defensive assets (in particular, a
                        re-allocation from gold into equities) and less negative real rates has been
                        weighing on the gold price over the past month. But the end-of-year sell-off
                        looks overdone, based primarily on the rising risk that FOMC would end QE
                        before the end of 2013 (given the mixed views of FOMC participants as revealed
                        in the minutes of the December meeting).
                        In early 2013, with the risks to industrial demand still persisting, we believe
                        gold has the greatest potential across the complex to regain its upward
                        momentum given the number of macro catalysts that still exist, as well as the
                        firming physical demand. As such, we are looking for a modest appreciation in
                        the first half of this year as investment demand remains positive, and the
                        physical market improves upon its fragile state.




                                           9
COMMODITIES - OVERALL
November 14, 2012




2. COMMODITY STRATEGY OUTLOOK SUMMARY

 Figure 5: Commodity strategy outlook summary

                 Units           2013     2014     ST LT Fundamental Issues                                                                                                                                 Risks
  Aluminium      $/t             2,125    2,225    ↔   ↓ The spot market remains artificially tight, as financing deals remain economic.                                                                    ↓ Metal flows slow
                 $/lb             0.96     1.01          Non-Chinese supply is being cut but this has been in the form of involuntary cutbacks. Aluminium smelters affordability has improved (due to       ↑ Smelters show constraint and production
                                                         lower coal prics) to a point where most are now back into the black on a cash basis.                                                               disruptions continue
                                                         Demand remains robust; particularly packing and transport in EM. Longer term theme of increasing energy efficiency should see the demand for
                                                         aluminum remain strong.
  Copper         $/t             8,225    8,100    ↔   ↑ Macro environment supportive. Sentiment improving                                                                                                  ↓ China destocks or re-exports some metal
                 $/lb             3.73     3.67          China has built excess stocks, which could soften demand for imports if underlying demand recovers. Whilst we anticipate increased mine            ↑ With LME stocks low, a short squeeze is
                                                         supply, a glut is unlikely.                                                                                                                        possible
  Nickel         $/t             19,625   22,500         Supply side issues in the short term are starting to balance out the effect of weak demand growth. There have been continued disruptions Onca      ↓ Indonesia reppeals ore export ban
                                                   ↓   ↑
                                                         Puma and Talvivaara mines
                 $/lb             8.90    10.21          Chinese NPI also remains beholden to changes in Indonesia mining laws. The outright ban on nickel ore exports from Indonesia will significantly    ↑ Production ramp up from HPAL projects is
                                                         constrain the industry from increasing supply if expectations are not meet from other parts of the industry                                        delayed
  Zinc           $/t             2,200    2,413          Growth in refined production is falling, primarily due to weaker production in China as smaller smelters react to the low prices                   ↓ Inventory financing has grown in size but
                                                   ↔   ↔
                                                                                                                                                                                                            remains a threat if unwound.
                 $/lb             1.00     1.09          Fundamentally the zinc market remains oversupplied. We remain skeptical that mine closures will occur as the market expects and thus should
                                                         keep the market relatively well supplied. Therefore, we would look forward to an improvement in demand to push the market back into deficit
                                                         before prices would react
  Lead           $/t             2,250    2,250          Scrap availability in the US as weakened in recent times (due to falling prices and a mild winter) has fallen. This combined supply disruptions (in ↓ Destocking in China
                                                   ↑   ↑
                                                         particular, a fire at the Herculaneum smelter) and strong auto sector growth has seen the market tighten considerably.
                 $/lb             1.02     1.02          In impending closure of Doe Run’s Herculaneum smelter (130Ktpy) by the end of 2013 will further tighten the lead market in the US. This should ↓ Because lead output is correlated with zinc,
                                                         result in increasing imports of refined metal in US                                                                                                 any increase in that market could see lead
                                                                                                                                                                                                             supply jump
  Gold           $/oz            1,688    1,425          A new round of quantitive easing measures, as well as fear of a fiscal cliff, should bring in new investment demand for gold.                       ↓ Waning in investor demand, driven by a risk
                                                   ↑   ↔
                                                                                                                                                                                                             on change in sentiment
                                                         Jewellery demand is picking up after prices stablise and festival season hits full stength.                                                         ↓ Weak physical demand due to high prices
  Iron Ore       $/t CFR China    138      134             Despite growth in steel production in China of sub-5% and weak steel prices, iron ore prices have rebounded strongly in 2H12. Market may         ↓ Destocking in Chinese market
                                                   ↔   ↗
                                                           question sustainability of rally.
                                                           Any likely stimulus measure by Chinese government are likely to be less-steel intensive than in the past.                                        ↑ Stronger than expected steel production in
                                                                                                                                                                                                            China; driven by stimulus measures
  Met Coal       $/t FOB Aus      186      230           With the risk of supply disruptions diminishing and Chinese steel production likely to rollover in coming months, the tight met coal market is     ↓ Chinese steel mills cut production
                                                   ↔   ↔
                                                         expected to ease in 4Q12
                                                         Demand for high quality coking coal remains robust and a small number of supply cutbacks in 1H12 due to rising costs suggest any further           ↓ Stronger HCC exports from Mongolia
                                                         weakness would see a rapid market response
  Thermal Coal   $/t FOB Aus      104      115     ↔   ↑ US exports expected to abate as domestic surplus diminished on the back of stronger demand and production cuts                                     ↓ Higher US exports
                                                         Indian and Chinese demand has been strong, with both recording record growth in 2012                                                               ↓ China destocking imported coal
                                                           Inventories in China remain high and could dampen the normal restocking effort this quarter.                                                     ↑ India raise electricity tariffs and increases
                                                                                                                                                                                                            use of imported coal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  SOURCE: CIMB




                                                                                                                        10
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




  Figure 6: Commodity prices – actuals and forecasts
                                  Units            2009     2010          2011     2012     2013     2014     2015         2016      2017
  Base Metals
  Copper                          $/t              5,155    7,537         8,816    7,970    8,225    8,100    7,450        7,150    6,900
                                  $/lb              2.34     3.42          4.00     3.61     3.73     3.67     3.38         3.24     3.13
  Aluminium                       $/t              1,667    2,172         2,330    2,034    2,125    2,225    2,275        2,325    2,400
                                  $/lb              0.76     0.99          1.06     0.92     0.96     1.01     1.03         1.05     1.09
  Alumina                         $/t               217      295           362      319      320      331      344          356       376
  Lead                            $/t              1,718    2,146         2,398    2,032    2,250    2,250    2,313        2,175    2,125
                                  $/lb              0.78     0.97          1.09     0.92     1.02     1.02     1.05         0.99     0.96
  Nickel                          $/t             14,643   21,813        22,866   17,673   19,625   22,500   23,125       21,250   18,250
                                  $/lb              6.64     9.89         10.37     8.02     8.90    10.21    10.49         9.64     8.28
  Zinc                            $/t              1,658    2,158         2,193    1,954    2,200    2,413    2,413        2,338    2,175
                                  $/lb              0.75     0.98          0.99     0.89     1.00     1.09     1.09         1.06     0.99
  Tin                             $/t             13,588   20,365        26,000   20,991   24,000   25,000   25,125       21,250   17,500
                                  $/lb              6.16     9.24         11.79     9.52    10.89    11.34    11.40         9.64     7.94
  Precious metals
  Gold                            $/oz              973     1,226         1,571    1,669    1,688    1,425    1,250        1,138    1,100
  Silver                          $/oz             14.68    20.21         35.30    31.17    30.00    26.00    22.00        19.13    18.00
  Platinum                        $/oz             1,204    1,610         1,720    1,551    1,800    1,725    1,675        1,775    1,850
  Palladium                       $/oz              264      525           733      644      800      925     1,000         813       700
  Bulk Commodities
  Iron Ore                        $/t CFR China      88      146           168      128      138      134      128          121       100
  Coal - Hard coking              $/t FOB           172      191           259      206      186      230      233          223       200
  Coal - Semi soft coking         $/t FOB           119      139           194      119      126      165      163          158       140
  Coal - LV PCI                   $/t FOB           126      147           188      139      136      180      185          180       160
  Coal - Thermal                  $/t FOB Newc       83       90           118       97      104      115      125          118       105
  Energy
  Oil WTI (US $/bbl)              $/bbl              64       82           111      112      115      108      100          100       100
  Henry Hub Gas Price (US$/mcf)   $/mcf             4.16     4.39          4.04     3.02     4.00     4.50     5.00         5.00     5.00
  Uranium (US$/lb)                $/lb               47       46            56       49       53       55       58           65        65
                                                                                                                      SOURCES: BLOOMBERG, CIMB




                                                                    11
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




                                            3. BASE METALS
                                            3.1 Aluminium – just too much supply
                                            We expect prices to remain range-bound as the market contends with
                                            overcapacity, a large inventory overhang and a high cost structure that can
                                            quickly re-balance the market.
                                            The aluminium price reached the highest level in three months in December 12,
                                            propelled by a technical squeeze in the LME that also shifted the market to
                                            backwardation. Meanwhile, the markets are coming to terms with short-term
                                            pricing; premia are still at record highs in Europe and the US, rising in China
                                            and only weakening slightly in Japan.
                                            Fundamentals have improved modestly, driven by on-going delays to capacity
                                            ramp-ups in China’s smelting capacity in the northwest of the country.
                                            There has also been better-than-expected demand in Asia. In China, semis
                                            production remains strong while in the ASEAN region shipments are down, but
                                            better than previously anticipated. Elsewhere, for example, in the US we project
Short-term outlook: Neutral                 a moderate improvement in demand from construction and another strong year
                                            for transport.
Long-term outlook: Bearish
                                            But the market remains mired by a structural surplus of material. We are
                                            forecasting a market surplus of 1,200Mt in 2013, expanding to 1,700Mt in 2014.
                                            Strong Chinese alumina buying in 4Q12 and ongoing bauxite shortages in India
                                            and China are likely to keep buyers nervous. Adding to market anxiety, Rio
                                            Tinto is expected to announce its decision this month to shut down or continue
                                            operating its 2.7Mt/a Gove refinery. Against this background, spot alumina
                                            prices are trending higher, now US$395/t, and unlikely to retreat significantly
                                            until there is a decision on Gove’s future. A decision to temporarily close the
                                            high-cost refinery would send the alumina price sharply higher.

  Figure 7: Aluminium supply/demand balance
  Thousand Tonnes                   2010         2011      2012E      2013E      2014E     2015E         2016E         2017E
  Europe                            8,420        8,629      8,010     8,989      9,163      9,542        9,927        10,223
  Asia (ex China)                   2,804        2,897      2,736     3,400      3,889      4,174        4,383         4,432
  China                            17,083       19,200     21,216    22,913     24,975     27,223       29,129        31,168
  North America                     4,689        4,970      4,657     5,204      5,165      5,238        5,393         5,418
  Others                            9,103        9,842      8,089     7,234      7,254      7,491         7,374        7,267
  Production adjustment                 0            0     -1,863    -3,047     -3,220     -3,426        -3,588       -3,735
  Total Supply                     42,100       45,539     44,707    47,742     50,448     53,668       56,206        58,507
   % chg yoy                       12.8%         8.2%      -1.8%      6.8%       5.7%       6.4%         4.7%          4.1%
  Europe                            7,651        7,972      7,938     8,049      8,175      8,457        8,435         7,952
  Asia (minus China)                6,719        6,825      7,094     7,371      7,747      8,147        8,574         9,029
  China                            16,472       19,167     20,700    22,149     23,589     25,004       26,504        28,095
  North America                     5,231        5,534      5,619     5,706      5,858      6,005        6,155         6,310
  Latin America                     1,830        2,010      2,086     2,165      2,247      2,333        2,422         2,514
  Oceania                            469          456        465        473        487       502           517           532
  Total Demand                     38,904       42,508     44,460    46,485     48,689     50,952       53,087        54,866
   % chg yoy                       15.4%         9.3%       4.6%      4.6%       4.7%       4.6%         4.2%          3.4%
  MARKET BALANCE                    3,196        3,030       248      1,257      1,759      2,716        3,119         3,641
  Total Reported Inventories       16,300       19,330     19,578    20,835     22,593     25,309       28,428        32,069
  Total Weeks Supply                  22           24         23         23        24         26            28            30
  Price ($/t)                       2,172        2,330      2,034     2,125      2,225      2,275        2,325         2,400
  Price ($/lb)                       0.99         1.06       0.92      0.96       1.01       1.03          1.05         1.09
                                                                                              SOURCES: WOOD MACKENZIE, WBMS, CIMB




                                                               12
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




  Figure 8: Despite an unfavourable arb, Aluminium exports have                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Figure 9: A positive arb has supported imports
  remained strong
                        1000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    400                                                                         300                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                100,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Title:                                                                             Arb
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            200                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                90,000
                           800                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  350                                                                                                                                                                   Source:                                                                            Imports
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                80,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                300                                                                                                                                                                   Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
                           600




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Aluminium Imports, kt
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                70,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               LME-SHFE spread $/t
  SHFE-LME spread $/t




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Aluminun Exports, kt
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                250
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            -100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               60,000
                           400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                200                                                                         -200                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               50,000
                           200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            -300                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               40,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                150

                                    0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       -400                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               30,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            -500                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               20,000
                        -200                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            -600                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               10,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Arb                                 Exports
                        -400                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0                                                                           -700                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               0
                                        Jan-08




                                                                                                                                  Jan-10




                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-11




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Apr-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Oct-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Apr-10
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Apr-12
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Oct-11
                                                                                                                                                                   SOURCES: Bloomberg, China Customs, CIMB                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     SOURCES: Bloomberg, China Customs, CIMB




  Figure 10: Aluminium inventory continues to build on the SHFE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Figure 11: …as domestic production remains strong

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1.8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    70%
                                   600                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Title:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Production                                                       % chg yoy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Source:                                                                                                                                                                      60%
                                   500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ALuminium Production, Mt




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1.6                                                                                       Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
                                   400                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             40%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1.5
                   Inventory, kt




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 % chg yoy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   30%
                                   300                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1.3
                                   200                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             10%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0%
                                   100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1.1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -10%

                                        0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     May-10




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Nov-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov-12
                                                                                                                                                                                       Jun-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jun-12
                                            Jun-09




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                                                                                                                                                                                 SOURCES: SHFE, BLOOMBERG, CIMB                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           SOURCES: NBS, IAI, CIMB



  Figure 12: Premims have been soaring around the world due to                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Figure 13: Aluminium LME inventories
  physical tightness
                          350                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               6.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      America                                  Title:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Asia   Europe
                                                                                  Japan                                            US Midwest                                                          EU
                          300                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Source:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            5.0

                          250                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                LME inventory, Mt




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            4.0
                          200

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            3.0
                          150


                          100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2.0


                                   50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1.0

                                   0
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Feb-11



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                                                                                                                                                                                              SOURCES: METAL BULLETIN, CIMB                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            SOURCES: LME, CIMB




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         13
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




                                           3.2 Copper
                                           We have moved to a neutral outlook for the copper market, and slightly lowered
                                           our price forecasts for 2013. An improvement in fundamentals remains patchy;
                                           there are clear signs of an upturn in China’s demand although it has come later
                                           than expected and with less vigour. The market also must battle with a period
                                           of improving mine supply, coupled with an overhang of Chinese inventory. But
                                           with the macro environment improving markedly over the next couple of
                                           months, we suspect copper will be well supported.
                                           Global production of mined copper is forecast to rise sharply in 2013. Output in
                                           2013 is currently forecast to be 17.8Mt, or 1.1Mt (6.6%) higher than the
                                           anticipated 2012 total. The rise is expected to come from a combination of
                                           improved performance at some existing mines and the start-up and ramp-up of
                                           new operations, including Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, Antapaccay in Peru and Los
                                           Bronces and Escondida in Chile (Figure 17).
                                           While China is already the world’s biggest refined copper producer and is
                                           forecast to grow at 10% in 2013, there is a further downside risk to prices if
Short-term outlook: Neutral                China becomes a more regular exporter of copper. Last year, China removed the
                                           export tax on tolled metal, which could make any Chinese surplus more visible
Long-term outlook: Bullish                 to the LME market.
                                           That said, with upcoming labour negotiations in Chile, rapidly declining ore
                                           grades and power issues, there remains a real risk that supply disruptions will
                                           be higher than expected. We have assumed a 4% disruption allowance in 2013,
                                           which is relatively conservative given the large disruptions over the past few
                                           years. If that were to come out closer to 6%, the market would move back into
                                           deficit.

  Figure 14: Copper global supply and demand balance
                                   2010        2011        2012        2013        2014       2015           2016          2017
  China                           4,575        5,197      5,824       6,412       6,937       7,973         8,525         8,575
  Chile                           3,237        3,092      3,057       3,116       3,190       3,048         2,966         2,867
  India                             647         697         703       1,037       1,144       1,156         1,156         1,156
  North America                   1,428        1,317      1,384       1,436       1,473       1,473         1,467         1,507
  Disruption Allowance                0           0        (412)       (880)       (911)      (477)         (485)         (481)
  Adjusted Supply                19,064      19,689      19,900      21,110      21,875     22,908        23,501        23,568
   % change yoy                   3.9%         3.3%       1.1%        6.1%        3.6%        4.7%          2.6%          0.3%
  Europe                          3,901       4,031       3,859       3,845       3,951      4,046         4,137         4,254
  China                           7,204       7,780       8,225       8,779       9,243      9,793        10,450        11,154
  Japan                           1,060       1,007        987        1,016       1,037      1,068         1,089         1,111
  North America                   1,902       1,902       1,930       1,961       2,011      2,062         2,112         2,163
  Total Demand                   19,122      19,733      20,139      20,938      21,779     22,727        23,796        24,992
   % change yoy                  11.4%         3.2%       2.1%        4.0%        4.0%        4.4%          4.7%          5.0%
  Market Balance                    (58)        (44)       (239)       172          95         181          (296)        (1,424)
  Total Reported Inventories      2,331       2,287       2,048       2,220       2,315      2,496         2,200           776
  Total Weeks Supply                6.4         6.0         5.2         5.2         5.3        5.4           4.7            1.7
  Price ($/lb)                    7,537        8,816      7,970       8,225       8,100       7,450         7,150         6,900
  Price ($/mt)                     3.42         4.00       3.61        3.73        3.67        3.38          3.24          3.13
                                                                                             SOURCES: WBMS, WOOD MACKENZIE, CIMB




                                                             14
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




  Figure 15: Chinese mine concentrate output is increasing                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Figure 16: Growth in Chilean copper production has returned
  strongly
                    180                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  60%                                   550                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        25%
                                                                   Production                                              % chg yoy                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ProductionTitle:                                           % chg yoy
                    160                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Source:                                                                                                                                                                           20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               500
                    140                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   15%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         40%                                                                                                            Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
                    120                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   10%
   Production, kt




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         30%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Production, kt
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               450
                    100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5%
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                    60                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         0%
                    40                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -10%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               350
                    20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   -10%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          -15%

                        0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                -20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               300                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        -20%
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sep-10
                                                                                                                                                     SOURCES: CIMB, WBMS, WOOD MACKENZIE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               SOURCES: BLOOMBERG, CIMB




  Figure 17: Increased mine production capability in 2013
                                                                           Mine production capability
  Operation                                                                                           Comment
                                                                                     (kt)
                                                                             2012 (E) 2013(F) Increase
  Grasberg                                                                                   350                             535                                        185 Improved head grade. Productivity returned to normal levels.
  Kamoto / KOV*                                                                              120                             285                                        165 Power supply secured. Continued ramp up of refurbishment project. New SxEw plant.
  Collahuasi                                                                                 280                             428                                        148 Higher mill throughput. Improved head grade. Management changes to address operational problems.
  Antapaccay                                                                                        5                        150                                        145 Start up during Q4 2012
  Candelaria                                                                                 132                             219                                         87 Improved head grade
  Oyu Tolgoi                                                                                        0                            70                                      70 Start up expected Q1 2013
  Bingham Canyon                                                                             171                             235                                         64 Improved head grade.
  Caserones                                                                                         0                            62                                      62 Start up expected mid 2013.
  Escondida                                                                           1065                                   1120                                        55 Improved head grade.
  Antamina                                                                                   450                             500                                         50 Continued ramp up of expansion project. Recent reports of SAG mill failure are not accurate.
  Los Bronces                                                                                343                             392                                         49 Continued ramp up of expansion project. Improved head grade. Better understanding of ore mineralogy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   SOURCES: CIMB, WOOD MACKENZIE




  Figure 18: SHFE_LME Arb                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Figure 19: China's Copper Exports
        800                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      550
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             120
        600                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      500                                                                                                    Title:
        400                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Source:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 450                         100
        200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 400                                                                                                    Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
                    0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          80
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 350
    -200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Exports, kt




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 300
    -400                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       60
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 250
    -600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 200                           40
    -800

  -1000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          150
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               20
  -1200                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          100
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                                                                                                                               Arb                                   Imports

                                                                                                                                                                                                     SOURCES: BLOOMBERG, CIMB                                                                                                                                                                                           SOURCES: CHINA CUSTOMS, BLOOMBERG, CIMB




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       15
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




  Figure 20: Copper semis production, 2012                                              Figure 21: China's copper imports

                                                                                                        500
                  25                                                                                                            Title:
                                  China    Japan         USA         South Korea                        450                     Source:
                  20
                                                                                                        400
                                                                                                                                Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
                  15                                                                                    350

                                                                                                        300
                  10




                                                                                          Imports, kt
   % change yoy




                                                                                                        250

                   5                                                                                    200

                                                                                                        150
                   0
                                                                                                        100
                   -5
                                                                                                        50

                  -10                                                                                    0
                                                                                                              Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr    May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep    Oct   Nov   Dec
                                                                                                                                2003           2004            2005
                  -15
                                                                                                                                2008           2009            2010
                        Q1   Q2       Q3   July    Aug         Sep     Oct
                                                                                                                                2011           2012
                                                         SOURCE: WOOD MACKENZIE                                                           SOURCES: CHINA CUSTOMS, BLOOMBERG, CIMB




                                                                                   16
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




                                           3.3 Nickel
                                           We remain positive towards nickel, with an imminent re-stocking phase
                                           coupled with more unplanned disruptions likely to support prices in 2013. The
                                           typical cycle of an early year re-stocking phase followed by demand moderation
                                           appears to playing out again in 2013, with the upside of steady economic
                                           improvement and a stronger China than seen in the past boosting demand to a
                                           greater level than currently projected.
                                           But it is the continued supply disruptions that could really change this market
                                           quickly. We have reduced our 2013 supply forecasts by 85kt (or 5%) compared
                                           with previous estimates due to delays or technical issues at the new large
                                           projects, notably Onça-Puma, Barro Alto and VNC. As a result, we do not
                                           anticipate the market to be over-supplied in the near-term, thereby increasing
                                           the likelihood of future prices remaining above the marginal cost level.
                                           For 2013, we are forecasting a market surplus of 22kt. With a restocking phase
                                           on the horizon and concerns about Indonesia’s nickel ore export ban, however,
                                           we believe the market will look through this and into a much tighter market in
                                           2014. Coupled with our long-term view that the market is giving too much
                                           credence to the success of HPAL projects, the supply side does not look as bad
                                           as before.
                                           In the short term, aggressive CTA short-covering in 4Q12 supported by
                                           additional long positions does open up the market for a sell-off. While the
Short-term outlook: Bearish                outlook is improving, there has been little fundamental foundation over the
                                           past few months for the strong performance of the nickel price.
Long-term outlook: Bullish

  Figure 22: World nickel supply/demand forecasts
  Thousand tonnes                 2010E       2011E      2012E        2013E      2014E      2015E         2016E         2017E
  Europe                          500.3       526.4      531.8        533.5      526.4      528.3         527.3         531.2
  Japan                           166.4       172.9      169.0        173.4      183.9      194.1         194.1         194.1
  China                           303.6       369.7      393.6        374.6      352.4      340.4         344.2         351.3
  Canada                           84.7       140.5      138.3        145.6      142.8      157.7         175.9         180.7
  Other America                   124.7       145.0      176.8        240.0      276.8      306.8         321.3         329.5
  Australiasia                    149.2       172.7      175.5        216.4      257.9      272.6         285.3         286.3
  Disruption allowance               -           -          -         110.1      114.7      120.5         123.3         124.9
  TOTAL Supply                   1,404.0     1,620.4    1,651.4      1,725.1   1,797.5     1,887.3       1,931.2       1,956.9
   % change y-o-y                  5.3%       15.4%       1.9%         4.5%      4.2%        5.0%          2.3%          1.3%
   Europe                         401.2       367.1      359.8        363.4      374.3      385.5         397.1         409.0
   Japan                          170.5       153.4      161.1        164.3      167.6      170.9         174.4         177.9
   Korea                           85.2        87.0       90.5         93.0       95.5       98.1         100.8         103.6
   China                          500.9       676.3      716.8        781.3      843.9      911.4         966.0        1,024.0
   U.S.                           145.5       123.7      123.7        125.5      127.4      129.3         131.3         133.2
  Others                          204.5       166.9      169.0        175.5      182.3      189.3         196.5         204.0
  Total Consumption              1,507.8     1,574.4    1,620.8      1,703.1   1,791.0     1,884.6       1,966.1       2,051.7
  % change y-o-y                  13.9%        4.4%       3.0%         5.1%      5.2%        5.2%          4.3%          4.4%
  MARKET BALANCE                   (104)          46         31           22         7           3           (35)          (95)
  Total Inventories (Reported)    235.0       191.0      221.6        243.6      250.1      252.8         217.9         123.2
  Total                              8.1         6.3        7.1          7.4       7.3         7.0           5.8           3.1
  LME cash price ($/t)            21,813      22,866     17,673       19,625    22,500      23,125        21,250        18,250
  LME cash price ($/lb)             9.89       10.37       8.02         8.90     10.21       10.49          9.64          8.28
                                                                                            SOURCES: WBMS, WOOD MACKENZIE, CIMB




                                                                17
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




  Figure 23: World stainless steel production has been weak                                                                                                                                                           Figure 24: Nickel consumption and industrial production is
  outside of China                                                                                                                                                                                                    highly correlated
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Title:
                                                           World
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Source:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
                                                           China                                                                                                                                                                       10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        % change yoy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5
                                         Asia (ex China)


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0
                                                     Americas

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        -5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            USA
                            Western Europe/Africa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            China
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       -10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Global
            -10%                         -5%                             0%                              5%                          10%                          15%                        20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Consumption
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       -15
                                                                                               1Q12               4Q12                                                                                                                       2000    2002         2004        2006       2008        2010        2012       2014

                                                                                                                                                                SOURCES: ISSF, CIMB                                                                                             SOURCES: BLOOMBERG, WOOD MACKENZIE




  Figure 25: Growth in China's nickel ore imports have moderated                                                                                                                                                      Figure 26: Inventories have been creeping up in recent quarters
  in recent months
                   8
                                                                                                                                                                                           190%                                                           Title:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       390                                                                                   90
                                                              Ni Conc Imports                                                                                                                                                                             Source:
                   7                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Stocks (kt)            Stocks (Days of Consumption)
                                                              % chg yoy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       370                  Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              85
                   6
                                                                                                                                                                                           140%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       350




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Doys of consumption
  million tonnes




                   5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         80
                                                                                                                                                                                                  % change yoy




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       330
                   4
                                                                                                                                                                                           90%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        kt




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             75
                   3                                                                                                                                                                                                                   310

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             70
                   2                                                                                                                                                                       40%                                         290

                   1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         65
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       270

                   -                                                                                                                                                                       -10%
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       250                                                                                   60
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12


                                                                                               SOURCES: CHINA CUSTOMS, BLOOMBERG, CIMB                                                                                                                                                           SOURCES: WOOD MACKENZIE




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 18
 COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
 February 4, 2013




                                            3.4 Zinc
                                            Fundamentally, the zinc market remains oversupplied. We remain sceptical
                                            that mine closures will occur as expected, and thus the market should remain
                                            relatively well supplied. Therefore, we would need to see an improvement in
                                            demand to push the market back into deficit before prices would react.
                                            The concentrate market outside of China was in structural surplus over 2005-11.
                                            However, the market has relied on huge import volumes by China to keep the
                                            market tight. China, however, has now ceased to act as a “safety valve” due to
                                            falling utilisation rates as a result of poor profitability of Chinese smelters, and
                                            thus excess concentrate is now accumulating in the rest of the world. With TCs
                                            picking up, there is the risk that Chinese smelter output will increase (as
                                            profitability improves), and thus increase the risk of additional metal hitting
                                            the market.
Short-term outlook: Neutral                 With front-end spreads trading in contango, inventory financing is very
                                            attractive. In fact, we believe a large component of the zinc in LME warehouses
Long-term outlook: Neutral                  is now held in financing. Given the time spread structure, this could rise even
                                            further.

   Figure 27: Global zinc supply/demand balance
   Thousand Tonnes                                2010        2011           2012           2013             2014              2015
   China                                          5,022       5,278          4,981          5,323            5,619            5,862
   Europe                                         2,186       2,179          2,230          2,370            2,364            2,345
   America                                        1,728       1,940          1,942          1,952            1,962            1,962
   Other                                          3,446       1,301          1,303          1,313            1,323            1,323
   Production                                 12,383         13,178         12,793         13,300           13,668           13,906
    % chg yoy                                 16.2%           6.4%          -3.4%           2.4%             2.8%             3.8%
   China                                          4,705       5,176          5,434          5,760            6,164            6,595
   Europe                                         2,061       2,082          1,921          1,901            1,925            1,949
   America                                        1,670       1,707          1,736          1,795            1,855            1,922
   Other                                          2,948       3,113          3,186          3,306            3,478            3,602
   Consumption                                11,385         12,078         12,277         12,762           13,421           14,067
    % chg yoy                                     9.9%        6.1%           1.7%           3.9%             5.2%             4.8%
   Market Balance                                  998        1,101           452            273               -27             -161
   Total Reported Stocks                          1,441       1,798          2,250          2,523            2,497            2,336
   Stocks-to-Consumption Ratio (wks)                6.6         7.7            9.5           10.3              9.7              8.6
   LME Cash Price ($/t)                           2,158       2,193          1,954          2,200            2,413            2,413
   LME Cash Price ($/lb)                           0.98        0.99           0.89           1.00             1.09             1.09
                                                                                            SOURCES: WOOD MACKENZIE, WBMS, NBS, CIMB




                                                              19
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




  Figure 28: Chinese zinc production has started to pick up after                                                                                                                                                                                           Figure 29: China's consumption of zinc has remained been
  a soft spot in 2012                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       weak
                        500                                                                                                                                                                                              70%                                                             550                                                                                                                                                                       50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Title:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         60%                                                                                                                     Source:
                        450                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              500                                                                                                                                                                       40%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         450                                                     Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               30%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Zinc Slab Consumption, kt
                        400                                                                                                                                                                                              40%
  Zinc Production kt




                                                                                                                                                                                                                         30%                                                             400                                                                                                                                                                       20%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           % chg yoy




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         % chg yoy
                        350
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         20%                                                             350                                                                                                                                                                       10%
                        300
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         10%
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                        250                                                                                                                                                                                              0%
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                         -10%
                        200                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              200                                                                                                                                                                       -20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         -20%
                                                            China Zinc produdction                                                % chg yoy                                                                                                                                                                               Zinc Slab Consumption                                           % chg yoy
                        150                                                                                                                                                                                              -30%                                                            150                                                                                                                                                                       -30%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-09




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Nov-09




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                                     Sep-09




                                     Sep-10




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sep-11




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sep-09
                                                                                                                                                                               SOURCES: WMBS, CIMB                                                                                                                                                                                             SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS




  Figure 30: Zinc LME inventories have risen dramatically, but on                                                                                                                                                                                           Figure 31: Chinese zinc imports have been strong
  warrant material has fallen recently as financing deals pick up
                               1.4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       80                                                                                                                                                                       200%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Title:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Imports (Refined Zinc)
                                                                America
                               1.2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       70                                                      Source:
                                                                Asia                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             % change yoy                                                                                                                                     150%
                                                                Europe                                                                                                                                                                                                                   60
                               1.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
         LME Inventories, Mt




                                                                Middle East
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  100%
                                                                Total LME On Warrant Zinc                                                                                                                                                                                                50




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         % change yoy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Imports, kt




                               0.8

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         40                                                                                                                                                                       50%
                               0.6
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         10

                               0.0
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                                                                                                                                           SOURCES: LME, BLOOMBERG, CIMB                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 SOURCE: CHINA CUSTOMS




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       20
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




                                           3.5 Lead
                                           The rebound in the lead price has been driven by a complex-wide improvement
                                           in investor sentiment, and therefore a renewed appetite for risk. Lead again
                                           performed better than the other base metals, supported by a strong
                                           fundamental outlook for the upcoming replacement battery season.
                                           Higher forecast demand for next year, coupled with a small downward revision
                                           to our mine/refined forecast has reduced next year’s refined market deficit by
                                           over 150kt, with prices expected to react accordingly.
                                           Scrap availability in the US has weakened recently (due to falling prices and a
                                           mild winter). This, combined with supply disruptions (in particular, a fire at the
                                           Herculaneum smelter) and strong auto sector growth has seen the market
                                           tighten considerably.
                                           Inventories have plummeted nearly 50% from the April peak. Of the remaining
                                           inventory, a large portion is held by major traders. This has resulted in large
                                           queues at warehouses and forced premiums up.
Short-term outlook: Bullish                The closure of Doe Run’s Herculaneum smelter (130Ktpy) by the end of 2013
                                           will further tighten the lead market in the US. This should result in increasing
Long-term outlook: Bullish                 imports of refined metal in the US.
                                           Global demand growth is picking up, with our forecast raised to 4.8% due to
                                           better-than-expected demand in China. This has been partly off set by
                                           downward revisions to Europe and Latin America demand. After a weak 3Q12,
                                           Chinese battery exports have started to improve. US demand is likely to remain
                                           strong but below last year’s elevated levels. In Europe, economic conditions are
                                           not expected to improve significantly before 2014, and as such lead demand
                                           growth in the region will be minimal.

  Figure 32: Global lead supply/demand balance
  Thousand Tonnes                   2009         2010          2011          2012          2013                2014             2015
  Europe                           1,739         1,774        1,836          1,854         1,882               1,920            1,977
  Asia (ex China)                  1,112         1,245        1,432          1,504         1,549               1,595            1,643
  China                            3,720         4,056        4,395          4,615         4,892               5,136            5,444
  Americas                         2,107         2,152        2,173          2,190         2,204               2,212            2,217
  Others                             456          458             461         464           417                 421              422
  Total Supply                     9,134         9,685       10,296         10,627        10,943              11,284           11,704
   y-o-y                           7.5%          6.0%         6.3%           3.2%          3.0%                3.1%             3.7%
  Europe                           1,537         1,637        1,629          1,612         1,644               1,694            1,745
  Asia (ex China)                  1,434         1,570        1,656          1,739         1,847               1,944            2,028
  China                            3,662         4,032        4,314          4,616         4,901               5,195            5,481
  North America                    1,927         1,996        2,170          2,239         2,311               2,368            2,337
  Others                             139          138             141         143           145                 147              150
  Total Demand                     8,699         9,373        9,911         10,350        10,848              11,347           11,741
   y-o-y                           4.4%          7.7%         5.7%           4.4%          4.8%                4.6%             3.5%
  MARKET BALANCE                    435           312             385         277            95                 -63              -37
  Global Inventory                   885         1,197        1,583          1,860         1,955               1,892            1,855
  Weeks of consumption               5.3           6.6             8.3         9.3           9.4                 8.7              8.2
  LME cash price ($/t)             1,718         2,146        2,398          2,032         2,250               2,250            2,313
  LME cash price ($/lb)             0.78          0.97            1.09        0.92          1.02                1.02             1.05
                                                                                                  SOURCES: ILZSG, WOOD MACKENZIE, CIMB




                                                             21
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




  Figure 33: Lead has the highest growth rate of any base metal                                  Figure 34: Lead demand correlates strongly with Industrial
                                                                                                 Production

                                5.0%                                                              12.0
                                                                                                                                                                  Title:
                                                                                                  10.0                                                            Source:
                                4.5%
                                                                                                   8.0
                                                                                                                                                                  Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
     World Consumption Grwoth




                                4.0%                                                               6.0

                                                                                                   4.0
                                3.5%                                                               2.0

                                                                                                   0.0
                                3.0%
                                                                                                  -2.0

                                2.5%                                                              -4.0

                                                                                                  -6.0




                                                                                                                 1988
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2012
                                2.0%


                                1.5%                                                                                                  World Lead Demand (% growth)                                                 DEVELOPING ECONOMIES
                                        Al       Cu     Ni     Zn        Pb           Sn
                                                                                                                                      MATURE ECONOMIES                                                             GLOBAL IP

                                                               SOURCES: WOOD MACKENZIE, CIMB                                                                                                                       SOURCES: IMF, BLOOMBERG, CIMB




  Figure 35: Auto sales by major region                                                          Figure 36: China auto production and sales

                                140%                                                                             160%                                             Title:
                                120%                                                                             140%                                             Source:
                                100%                                                                             120%

                                 80%                                                                             100%
                                                                                                                                                                  Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
   % chg y-o-y




                                                                                                   % chg y-o-y




                                 60%                                                                              80%

                                 40%                                                                              60%

                                 20%                                                                              40%

                                  0%                                                                              20%

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                                 -40%                                                                            -20%

                                 -60%                                                                            -40%
                                        Jan-08




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                                             China    Europe    US            Japan                                            Oct-12                                           Production                          Sales

                                                                     SOURCES: BLOOMBERG, CIMB                                                                                                               SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS




                                                                                            22
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




                                         3.6 Tin
                                         We envisage the market remaining in deficit for the foreseeable future. The only
                                         way we believe this could change is if higher prices induce more projects into
                                         construction. In the short term though, an improving demand environment
                                         coupled with supply constraints is likely to keep upward pressure on prices.
                                         After peaking around 34kt per month in 3Q11, global refined tin production has
                                         fallen to around 27kt in recent months (according to WBMS). In fact, recent
                                         months have recorded yoy falls of between 13% and 16%. This has been the
                                         result of weak growth in production in China. Refined tin production is down
                                         nearly 20% yoy in recent months, but there have been notable declines in Peru
                                         and Thailand as well. This coincides with prices dropping to approximately
                                         US$17,000/t in late July, while spending a large part of the northern
                                         hemisphere summer below US$20,000/t.
                                         Strong tin demand remains beholden to a recovery in the electronics sector,
                                         where solder consumes over 45% of all tin. When combined with demand from
                                         industrial applications, the solder industry consumes over 54% of all tin. For
Short-term outlook: Bullish              the first time this year, we are seeing signs that China’s electronics and home
                                         appliance sectors are coming to life, thus supporting solder and tin demand.
Long-term outlook: Bullish               Production of appliances in China such as televisions rose 19% yoy, air
                                         conditioners 31% and personal computers 31% in October. A view across all
                                         tin-related sectors shows a broad recovery in recent months.
                                         Inventories have been on a steady decline for the past three years. Since hitting
                                         27kt in early 2010, they are down nearly 60% to 11.3kt. The market is even
                                         tighter when you consider that LME warrant availability is at record low levels.
                                         In recent weeks, cancelled warrants jumped to as high as 7,900t, although they
                                         currently sit at just under 3,200t. Thus, the market appears significantly tighter
                                         than even its strong fundamentals suggest.

  Figure 37: Tin supply/demand balance
  (Last updated 15-Jan-13)       2009      2010       2011         2012F     2013F    2014F     2015F       2016F         2017F
  SUPPLY ('000t)
  China                         140.4     149.4      156.1         143.6     152.2    162.4     173.8       184.2         193.5
  Indonesia                      65.0      64.2       73.0          71.7      72.0     73.0      73.0         75.0         80.0
  Malaysia                       36.4      38.7       40.3          37.0      41.0     41.4      41.8         42.2         42.7
  Others                         93.9     104.4       98.5          99.2     100.7    101.2     101.7       102.3         102.8
  World Total                    335.7     356.7     367.9         351.5     365.9    378.1     390.4        403.7         418.9
  % change YoY                  -2.3%      6.3%      3.1%          -4.5%     4.1%     3.3%      3.3%         3.4%          3.8%
  DEMAND ('000t)
  Europe                         52.4      59.4       65.9          55.4      56.2     57.1      57.9         58.8         59.7
  Asia                          230.9     255.7      266.9         267.9     275.5    283.3     291.4       299.6         308.2
  North America                  31.5      39.1       38.7          37.2      37.9     38.7      39.5         40.3         41.1
  Others                         11.1      14.4       12.5          11.7      11.9     12.1      12.3         12.6         12.8
  Total                          325.9     368.6     384.0         372.1     381.5    391.2     401.1        411.3         421.7
  % change YoY                  -7.9%     13.1%      4.2%          -3.1%     2.5%     2.5%      2.5%         2.5%          2.5%
  MARKET BALANCE                   9.8     -11.9     -16.1          -20.6    -15.6    -13.1     -10.7         -7.5          -2.8
  INVENTORY
  Total                            73        52        42             31       26       18        16          10.4         12.9
  Day of Consumption               20        13        10              8        6        4         4           2.3          2.8
  PRICES                            0         0         0              0        0        0         0            0             0
  Tin Spot Price US$/t         13,588    20,365     26,000        20,991    24,000   25,000    25,125      21,250        17,500
  Tin Spot Price US$/lb          6.16      9.24      11.79          9.52     10.89    11.34     11.40         9.64         7.94
                                                                                                        SOURCES: WBMS, ITRI, CIMB




                                                             23
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




                                            4. PRECIOUS METALS
                                            4.1 Gold
                                            We maintain a bullish view on the gold price on the back of further monetary
                                            easing in the coming 18 months. The end-of-year sell-off appears to be
                                            overdone, based primarily on the rising risk that FOMC would end QE before
                                            the end of 2013 (given the mixed views of FOMC participants as revealed in the
                                            minutes of the December meeting).
                                            In early 2013, with the risks to industrial demand still persisting, we believe
                                            gold has the greatest potential across the complex to regain its upward
                                            momentum given the number of macro catalysts that still exist, as well as the
                                            firming physical demand. As such, we are looking for a modest appreciation in
                                            the first half of this year as investment demand remains positive and the
                                            physical market improves upon its fragile state.
                                            We believe there is a hard limit to which inflation expectations will be allowed
                                            to rise before monetary policy is forced to tighten. The middle ground, between
                                            now and that point (which we estimate at 2015), is where extraordinary
Short-term outlook: Bullish                 monetary policies (including outright QE purchases) and tightening bank
Long-term outlook: Bullish                  regulation (Basel III) create an environment of modest financial repression.
                                            This should keep nominal and real interest rates very low, supporting
                                            long-duration and inflation-hedged assets including equities, property and gold
                                            in 2013.
                                            Central bank demand continues to support the market. We expect purchasing
                                            by emerging market countries to remain strong. In recent weeks we have seen
                                            announcements from Japan (Japanese pension funds to double their gold
                                            holding over the next two years), Vietnam (looking to increase government
                                            reserves) as well as Germany (repatriating bullion stored in France and US).
                                            Physical demand was weak towards the end of 2012, but in recent weeks has
                                            started to improve, in particular from dealers in both India and China.
                                            Premiums in India have been resigning strongly as buyers scrambled to place
                                            orders for small bars as domestic prices fell and concerns emerge over another
                                            possible increase in import duties.



  Figure 38: Gold supply/demand model
  Tonnes                           2008             2009            2010      2011            2012        2013            2014
  SUPPLY
  Total Mine Production           2,453            2,611           2,583      2,619          2,650        2,664           2,670
   YoY % Change                   0.1%             6.4%            -1.1%      1.4%           1.2%         0.5%            0.2%
  Central Bank Sales                232               41               6         0               0           0               0
  Gold Scrap                      1,000            1,695           1,719      1,661          1,671        1,640           1,635
   YoY % Change                   0.0%             69.5%           1.4%      -3.4%           0.6%        -1.9%           -0.3%
  TOTAL SUPPLY                    3,685            4,347           4,308      4,280          4,321        4,304           4,305
   YoY % Change                                    18.0%           -0.9%     -0.6%           1.0%        -0.4%            0.0%
  DEMAND
  Jewellery                       2,304            1,814           2,017      1,974          2,033        2,104           2,188
  Other                             715              695             761       790             758         751             758
  Total Fabrication               3,019            2,509           2,778      2,764          2,792        2,855           2,947
   YoY % Change                   7.1%            -16.9%           10.7%     -0.5%           1.0%         2.3%            3.2%
  ETF's                             321              623             382       185             220         395             395
  Net Producer De-Hedging               0            112              84        84              84          84              84
  TOTAL DEMAND                    3,340            3,244           3,244      3,033          3,096        3,334           3,426
   YoY % Change                   8.8%             20.4%           10.5%      2.1%          -26.0%        7.1%            2.5%
  Implied Net Investment            345            1,103           1,064      1,247          1,226         969             879
  Gold Price (US$/oz)               872              973           1,226      1,571          1,677        1,700           1,425
                                                                                                         SOURCES: WGC, IMF, CIMB




                                                              24
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




                                 5. STEEL MAKING RAW MATERIALS
                                 5.1 Iron ore
                                 Prices have recovered more quickly than we (and the market) had expected. An
                                 improving steel production profile from China in 4Q12, as well as an end to
                                 destocking of steel at the consumer level has underpinned this recovery. But it
                                 has been the supply side issues which have pushed prices to where they are
                                 today. These issues include:
                                 1.   Greater-than-expected fall in exports from India (as we highlighted last
                                      month in our Commodities Update: “Indian iron ore exports grind to a
                                      halt”, 5 December 2012).
                                 2.   Colder-than-expected winter in northern China has constrained domestic
                                      mines to respond to higher prices. As China moves into spring, production
                                      should stabilise and begin to edge up in response to higher prices. This is
                                      likely to fuel a retreat in prices in 2Q13 as supply once again catches up
                                      with demand.
Short-term outlook: Neutral      3.   Iron ore inventories remain at historically low levels; in particular, mills
                                      are believed to be carrying below normal working levels, which has
Long-term outlook: Slightly           resulted in buyers looking to the international market during the current
Bullish                               short squeeze.
                                 Our expectation for iron ore prices in the short term is that prices will remain
                                 relatively well supported in 1Q13, and even early in 2Q13 before they begin
                                 retreating on the back of weak demand and increasing supply. But there are
                                 risks that could bring prices down in the short term which include:
                                     Chinese domestic production. As mentioned above, Chinese domestic
                                      production has been constrained by a deep freeze in the northern part of
                                      the country. While this has tightened the domestic market, it could equally
                                      push the market back into surplus if temperatures start rising and
                                      production can resume. We would expect to see that occur after Chinese
                                      New Year in any case, but the kick back could be more severe with prices
                                      back above US$150/t.
                                     Indian Exports. While we expect Indian exports to remain low, there
                                      remains a risk that a resolution to the Goa ban could come earlier than
                                      expected.
                                     Normal cyclone season in Australia. Supply disruptions have been higher
                                      than normal over the past couple of years after a couple of severe summers.
                                      The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting a more normal cyclone season
                                      this year, thus the risk of a strong yoy increase in Australian iron ore
                                      exports is a distinct possibility.
                                     Overcapacity in China’s steel market could pressure steel prices. The
                                      Chinese steel market continues to suffer from a capacity overhang. This is
                                      likely to result in weak margins and steel prices, particularly considering
                                      where iron ore prices are now. This matters as the correlation between
                                      steel profit margins and iron ore prices is relatively strong.
                                 A steady improvement in Chinese demand and continued supply-side issues
                                 have been conducive in creating conditions that have driven iron ore prices up
                                 over 80% since falling below US$90/t for the first time since 2009. While we
                                 see them remaining supportive in the short term, the risks mentioned above
                                 have the potential to quickly push prices lower.




                                                   25
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




  Figure 39: Iron ore supply/demand balance
  Mt                                    2009    2010    2011e   2012e   2013e         2014e      2015e       2016e      2017e
  Seaborne Imports
  Japan                                  115    134      128     127     133           132         135        137         139
  Korea                                  42      58      70      68      70             73         76          79         83
  Taiwan                                 12      19      21      19      19             20         20          21         23
  China                                  628    619      687     699     711           806         841        863         883
  EEC                                    81      98      94      106     116           119         123        126         130
  USA                                     4      6        5      11      11             11         12          12         13
  Others                                 20      20      39      41      43             45         47          52         62
  Total Seaborne Import                  902    954     1,044   1,070   1,104         1,207       1,253      1,290       1,332
  Seaborne Exports
  Australia                              362    402      438     485     539           614         697        715         740
  Brazil                                 266    311      331     314     339           364         386        444         492
  India                                  115    102      77      60      45             35         25          11          0
  Canada                                 28      28      30      30      30             25         25          25         25
  Africa                                 55      59      59      70      83            100         107        111         126
  Other                                  55      85      86      81      51             48         50          45         45
  Total Seaborne Exports                 871    966     1,020   1,040   1,086         1,186       1,289      1,351       1,427
  Implied Surplus/Deficit               -31.5   11.6    -24.0   -29.8   -17.3         -21.3       36.0        61.1       94.7
  Price Forecast ($/t CFR China)        88.2    145.8   167.8   127.1   130.0         133.8       127.5      121.3       100.0
                                                                                SOURCES: GTIS, CHINA CUSTOMS, WOOD MACKENZIE, CIMB




                                                          26
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




                                            5.2 Metallurgical Coal
                                            Key issues
                                            The benchmark settlement price for premium hard coking coal for delivery in
                                            the Jan-Mar 2013 quarter was signed between BMA and newly merged Nippon
                                            Steel-Sumitomo at a US$5/t discount to the prevailing quarterly price, at
                                            US$165/t. This was not unexpected, although we had been forecasting a
                                            rollover. Japanese and Korean steel mills had not been prepared for any
                                            substantial price rises in 1Q13 and held firm as the wider market was still soft.
                                            The pricing power by Nippon Steel and Sumitomo settling as a combined
                                            company rather than as a wider consortium of Japanese steel mills may also
                                            have influenced this settlement.
                                            The removal of a 40% tariff on met coke exports from China could result in
                                            additional coking coal demand from the world’s biggest consumer. After recent
                                            years of weakness, ramping up to its coke export quota would mean 11 Mt of
                                            additional coking coal demand required in China. The key issue will be if
                                            domestic mines and/or Mongolia cannot meet the shortfall in coking coal. If so,
                                            then additional seaborne imports will be required in China.
Short-term outlook: Neutral
                                            Weather in Australia is unlikely to produce the supply disruptions seen over the
Long-term outlook: Neutral                  past couple of years, as it appears that weather patterns are returning to normal.
                                            In saying that, although the latest floods in Queensland have caused some
                                            minor disruptions. With plentiful inventories and the ability of producers to
                                            release excess water into nearby rivers, however, the disruption is likely to be
                                            short lived and the loss of supply minimal. Mitigating this gain will be the
                                            disruption to the Canadian supply. The collapse of Berth 1 at Canada’s
                                            Westshore Terminal in Vancouver following a capsized vessel ploughing
                                            through the trestle structure could result in a three months loss of capacity of
                                            up to 4.5Mtpa. While the accident has failed to move prices significantly, it
                                            should support prices in 1Q13.
                                            These two major events will act to keep metallurgical coal prices balanced, but
                                            at low levels into the early part of this year. Look for renewed pressure on
                                            lower-quality coals in spite of the recent firm 1Q13 contraction for ultra low-vol
                                            PCI coal signed at US$124/t. The potential fallout from China’s export duty will
                                            likely affect lower-quality coking coals more than premium hard coking coal,
                                            with a reduced need for low quality coking coals following an upsurge in
                                            cheaper coke to meet strong demand markets on China’s doorstep.

  Figure 40: Metallurgical coal supply/demand balance
  IMPORTS (Mt)                           2011e          2012e        2013e      2014e         2015e            2016e           2017e
  Japan                                   54.0           57.7         59.9        61.6          61.0            62.2             63.5
  South Korea                             30.9           32.0         31.4        34.6          35.2            37.7             40.3
  India                                   32.7           34.5         46.1        57.2          63.6            69.5             75.5
  Europe                                  53.5           57.9         58.8        66.0          66.6            68.6             68.5
  China (excl Mongolia)                   24.6           37.8         39.9        43.9          34.1            23.7             18.0
  Brazil                                  15.8           18.1         20.6        24.1          25.6            27.7             29.9
  Other                                   20.4           25.4         28.1        30.1          32.8            33.3             35.8
  Total                                  231.9          263.5        284.8       317.4         318.9           322.7            331.4
  EXPORTS (Mt)
  Australia                              132.7          147.9        170.5       188.7         197.3           206.3            217.6
  US                                      59.3           76.9         65.0        56.0          56.0            55.0             55.0
  Canada                                  26.1           24.0         24.5        27.0          25.0            25.0             25.0
  China                                    0.6            0.6          0.6         0.6           0.6             0.6              0.6
  Russia                                  14.0           12.0         12.0        15.0          15.0            15.0             15.0
  Mozambique                               4.4            6.0          9.6        12.2          12.2            17.2             20.2
  Other                                    6.5            7.9         11.5         9.7          11.2            13.1             17.9
  Total                                  243.6          275.3        293.7       309.2         317.3           332.2            351.3
  IMPLIED MARKET BALANCE                                11.9          8.9         -8.2          -1.7             9.6            19.9
  Hard Coking Coal ($/t FOB Aus)           259            206          188        230            233             223             180
  Semi-Soft ($/t FOB Aus)                  194            119          126        165            163             158             126
  LV PCI ($/t FOB Aus)                     188            139          136        180            185             180             144
                                                                                          SOURCES: WOOD MACKENZIE, PLATTS, GTIS, CIMB\




                                                                27
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




                                           6. ENERGY
                                           6.1 Thermal coal
                                           Coal markets came under extreme pressure in 2012, with most benchmarks
                                           down over 30%, driven by strong increases of supply from not only traditional
                                           sources but also non-traditional, such as US coal into Asia. This was
                                           compounded by a relatively warm winter in Europe which pushed inventory
                                           levels high, and then exacerbated by lower economic growth as the Euro crisis
                                           intensified. Over the course of the next 12 months, we believe it will be
                                           demand-side issues that will gradually drive a market recovery in the thermal
                                           coal market.
                                           Demand for thermal coal will increase substantially in China and India in 2013,
                                           slowly and steadily lifting prices from their current low levels. We forecast
                                           China and India to increase imports by a combined 35 Mt in 2013, in part due
                                           to recovering external economies in the Atlantic basin. In Europe, coal demand
                                           will grow in Germany and some parts of Eastern Europe but fall elsewhere,
                                           resulting in an overall fall in demand.
Short-term outlook: Neutral                We see downside to US exports due to port constraints, supply cuts and
Long-term outlook: Bullish                 improving demand for coal-fired electricity (due to higher gas prices).
                                           We believe that Indonesia’s 2012 production was 20-25 Mt below expectations,
                                           indicating the supply cuts. Cutbacks in production in Indonesia also suggest a
                                           bottoming out of sub-bituminous and lignite coal demand, even though the
                                           arbitrage window is open to Indonesia. Going into 2013, we expect exports to
                                           remain relatively flat; as the government seems intent on curbing future growth
                                           in coal exports (as illustrated by announcements last year that it is considering
                                           implementing a 25% tax on coal exports).
                                           We expect Newcastle coal prices to remain well supported at around
                                           US$90-95/t, but should start steadily rising during the first quarter of 2013
                                           before hitting US$100/t by early 2Q13. The low price of domestic thermal coal
                                           in China will continue to impact the competitiveness of Pacific Basin seaborne
                                           coal.

  Figure 41: Thermal coal supply/demand balance
  IMPORTS (Mt)                         2011        2012e          2013e      2014e        2015e              2016e            2017e
  Japan                                115.8        123.8         129.6       127.3        128.4              132.8            133.0
  S.Korea                               94.4         97.0         103.7       112.8        122.5              135.8            144.6
  Taiwan                                62.4         62.4          62.4        62.4         62.4               61.9             61.5
  India                                 92.5        108.8         127.9       164.1        179.6              215.9            230.4
  EC                                   124.7        137.7         123.8       118.7        116.6              118.5            110.7
  Turkey                                12.3         13.2          16.5        24.7         33.2               34.4             35.2
  China                                137.7        151.9         157.1       168.3        164.7              169.1            169.1
  Malaysia                              20.1         21.5          23.4        25.2         27.2               29.5             32.0
  Thailand                              16.0         18.2          21.7        16.3         20.0               23.7             27.9
  Vietnam                                0.0          0.0           0.0         1.3          3.8                5.0              6.9
  Others                                80.1         84.1          90.6        94.7        105.3              108.5            112.6
  Total                                756.2        818.6         856.6       915.8        963.6             1035.1           1064.0
  EXPORTS (Mt)
  Australia                            152.9        159.0         177.6       200.7        211.2              217.7            226.8
  South Africa                          70.2         75.0          77.0        80.0         82.3               82.0             79.4
  Russia                                88.1         96.4          96.4       102.6        117.2              118.4            119.7
  Indonesia                            323.6        342.0         345.0       365.3        379.8              393.6            410.7
  China                                 17.9          8.9           2.6         2.9          3.0                6.1              6.5
  Columbia                              64.0         69.1          69.1        69.1         75.2               79.2             85.3
  US                                    25.5         41.1          35.0        27.0         28.0               35.0             40.0
  Vietnam                               20.0         25.8          22.0        23.0         20.7               19.4             17.7
  Other                                 31.9         29.9          26.9        31.9         31.9               31.9             31.9
  Total                                794.1        847.2         851.6       902.5        949.4              983.4           1017.9
  IMPLIED MARKET BALANCE                            28.6           -5.0      -13.3        -14.2               -51.8            -46.1
  Thermal Coal ($/t FOB Newc)          118.2         96.9         102.5       115.0        125.0              117.5            100.0
                                                                                                  SOURCES: WOOD MACKENZIE, GTIS, CIMB




                                                             28
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




  Figure 42: US thermal coal exports                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Figure 43: Breakdown of US fossil fuel consumption

                     6                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   70                                55%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Title:
                                                                    Monthly Exports                                                              Yearly Rate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         65                                50%                                                                            Source:
                     5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         60
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         55
                     4
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    Million Tonnes




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Million Tonnes
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                     3                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   45                                35%

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                     0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   20                                15%




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                 SOURCES: CIMB, GTIS, Platts                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     SOURCES: EIA, CIMB




  Figure 44: US gas prices have rebound as a forecast normal                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Figure 45: Thermal coal prices around the world have been
  winter boosts demand                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 picking up lately
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 140
                     6.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         90
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   Gas, $/mmbtu




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 75
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                     3.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         55                              80                                                                                                              API4 (Richards Bay)

                     2.5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         50                                                                                                                                              API2 (Rotterdam)
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                                                                                      Henry Hub Nat Gas                                                                      CSX                                                    NYMEX

                                                                                                                                                                                                       SOURCES: BLOOMBERG, CIMB                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        SOURCE: BLOOMBERG




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  29
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




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                                                                                                  30
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




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 Score Range                      90 – 100                    80 – 89                     70 – 79        Below 70 or No Survey Result
 Description                     Excellent                Very Good                         Good                                     N/A
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                                                                                                  31
COMMODITIES STRATEGY – Asia Pacific
February 4, 2013




 is not a recommendation to effect any transactions in the securities discussed herein, or an endorsement of any opinion expressed herein. CIMB Securities (USA) Inc, is a FINRA/SIPC
 member and takes responsibility for the content of this report. For further information or to place an order in any of the above-mentioned securities please contact a registered
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 Other jurisdictions: In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is only for distribution to professional, institutional or sophisticated
 investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions.

     Distribution of stock ratings and investment banking clients for quarter ended on 31 December 2012
     820 companies under coverage
                                                                         Rating Distribution (%)                                              Investment Banking clients (%)
     Outperform/Buy/Trading Buy                                          54.5%                                                                9.0%
     Neutral                                                             34.0%                                                                3.4%
     Underperform/Sell/Trading Sell                                      11.5%                                                                8.6%


                                                                                    Recommendation Framework #1 *

                                             Stock                                                                                                           Sector
 OUTPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a                            relevant                OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
 benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months.                                                 expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
 NEUTRAL: The stock's total return is expected to be within +/-5% of a                   relevant                NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected
 benchmark's total return.                                                                                       to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
 UNDERPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to be below a                        relevant                UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
 benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months.                                                 expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
 TRADING BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a                           relevant                TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
 benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months.                                                  expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.
 TRADING SELL: The stock's total return is expected to be below a                        relevant                TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
 benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months.                                                  expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.
 * This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand, Jakarta Stock Exchange, Australian Securities Exchange, Korea Exchange, Taiwan
 Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange of India/Bombay Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market
 volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
 CIMB Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M)



                                                                               Recommendation Framework #2 **

                                             Stock                                                                                                          Sector
 OUTPERFORM: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 12                                     OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a
 months.                                                                                                         high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% or better over
                                                                                                                 the next 12 months.
 NEUTRAL: Expected total returns of between -10% and +10% over the next 12                                       NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has either (i)
 months.                                                                                                         an equal number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% (or better)
                                                                                                                 or -10% (or worse), or (ii) stocks that are predominantly expected to have total returns
                                                                                                                 that will range from +10% to -10%; both over the next 12 months.
 UNDERPERFORM: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12                                   UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a
 months.                                                                                                         high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -10% or worse over
                                                                                                                 the next 12 months.
 TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3                                     TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a
 months.                                                                                                         high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% or better over
                                                                                                                 the next 3 months.
 TRADING SELL: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 3                                    TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a
 months.                                                                                                         high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -10% or worse over
                                                                                                                 the next 3 months.
 ** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily
 outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.


 Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2011.
 AAV – not available, ADVANC - Excellent, AMATA - Very Good, AOT - Excellent, AP - Very Good, BANPU - Excellent , BAY - Excellent , BBL - Excellent, BCH - Good, BEC - Very
 Good, BECL - Very Good, BGH - not available, BH - Very Good, BIGC - Very Good, BTS - Very Good, CCET - Good, CK - Very Good, CPALL - Very Good, CPF - Very Good, CPN -
 Excellent, DELTA - Very Good, DTAC - Very Good, GLOBAL - not available, GLOW - Very Good, GRAMMY – Excellent, HANA - Very Good, HEMRAJ - Excellent, HMPRO - Very
 Good, INTUCH – Very Good, ITD - Good, IVL - Very Good, JAS – Very Good, KAMART – not available, KBANK - Excellent, KK – Excellent, KTB - Excellent, LH - Very Good, LPN
 - Excellent, MAJOR - Very Good, MCOT - Excellent, MINT - Very Good, PS - Excellent, PSL - Excellent, PTT - Excellent, PTTGC - not available, PTTEP - Excellent, QH - Excellent,
 RATCH - Excellent, ROBINS - Excellent, RS – Excellent, SC – Excellent, SCB - Excellent, SCC - Excellent, SCCC - Very Good, SIRI - Very Good, SPALI - Very Good, STA - Very
 Good, STEC - Very Good, TCAP - Very Good, THAI - Very Good, THCOM – Very Good, TICON – Good, TISCO - Excellent, TMB - Excellent, TOP - Excellent, TRUE - Very Good,
 TUF - Very Good, WORK – Good.




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