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					b. Based on their level of consumption
Some categories of consumers are further classified into various energy slabs depending
on their level of consumption. The tariff slabs occur in the LT category of consumers.
The last six years category-wise consumption are tabulated below:
Table 1 Consumption for the period FY 2007 to FY 2012.

Category           2007-08       2008-09        2009-10       2010-11        2011-12        2012-13
                                                  Consumption (MUs)

HT Industries,
                      15434          14247          16562         17942          19438          21058
  Railways
Edu. Insts Etc.         872            885            936           998           1064           1135
     (HT)
   Places of
     Public                  2              3           4                4              4              4
  Workship,
 Commercial
                       1408           1431           1514          1671           1844           2034
 and other HT
 Lift irrigation
  and co-ops                 9              9          11               12             14             15
      (HT)
 Pondicherry            393            373            420           445            471            499

   HT others            210            193              0                0              0         445

   Domestic           12575          13387          13709         14524          15578          16309

       Huts,            190            195            216           229            243            258
    Defense
                             3             12           3                4              5              6
  colonies etc
Public lighting
                        973           1213           1043          1077           1111           1147
& water works
  Recognized
   Education.           335            595            357           471            620            817
  Institution.
places of public
                         68            115             74               78             83             88
 worship (LT)
 Cottage, Tiny          264            610            284           416            610            895


  Power loom            672            799            720           749            779            811

   Industries          4585           3800           4924          4912           4902           4893

Agriculture &
                      11107          11499          11918         12870          14116          15245
Govt seed farm

 Commercial
                       3731           3699           4003          4348           4728           5148
 and other LT

    Total
                      52831          53065          56698         60751          65610          70817
 consumption



                                                                                                  46
The load forecast takes into account underlying economic growth and other forces that
affect electricity consumption in the major categories of load. An attempt has been made
to refine the forecasts in the wake of economic outlook for the state and check that they
are consistent with the likely movements of the principle macroeconomic parameters of
demand. The basic parameters underlying load forecast are:-
       •      Sales data up to FY 2008 has been used for analysis
       •      Managing agricultural demand and
       •      Rationalisation of tariffs which include incentive structure for HT
              consumers, increase in tariffs at inflationary level for subsidising
              categories and increase in tariffs for subsidised categories including
              agriculture.
The approach for development of the load forecast for each category is explained below.
       (a) Domestic or Residential: The domestic load growth is expected to grow
           with the increase in population as well as growth in per capita income. The
           past trend shows an increasing demand in this category, with even the YOY
           rates increasing. Though there seems to be an imminent saturation in the
           number of domestic consumers, the growth trend is expected to continue as
           the quality of life increases, thereby increasing energy requirements as well.
           Further, a lot of consumers from huts category would shift to domestic
           category.
       (b) Commercial: The commercial load growth is expected to grow again with
           the increase in population as well as increased spending. Tamil Nadu
           primarily being a service economy (to a large extent), commercial demand
           growth is expected to continue growing at an increasing YOY rate during the
           projection period.
       (c) Industrial Load (Low, Medium, High): The load would depend upon the
           capital formation as well as the growth in manufacturing sector. The effect of
           captive generation is also a major parameter in determining the future
           demand growth in industrial HT sector. Past trends have shown small
           increase YOY growth rate in industrial HT demand, though Industrial LT
           demand has shown reasonable growth. With measures to retain HT clients


                                                                                      47
               and neutralise the impact of captive generation, HT demand is expected to
               grow at a low YOY rate.
          (d) Public Lighting, water works, etc: The load growth is expected to depend
               upon the spending of Government for social services. During the past, YOY
               growth rate has shown a significant decrease in load growth. The previous
               year rates have been taken as an indicative benchmark for projecting growth
               in this category.
          (e) Agriculture: Agricultural consumption has been 100% un-metered in the
               past with no tariff. The latest tariff order provides a minimal tariff rate for
               agriculture. The TNEB has nearly 19 lakh agricultural consumers with a
               connected load of 103.30 lakh HP. There is an estimated increase of 40000
               agricultural connections per year.

Based on the growth rate, the projected sales for the years FY 2010-11, FY 2011-12 and FY
2012-13 are as under:-
Table 4Category-wise sales (MU)

                                                   FY 2010-11                 FY 2011-12               FY 2012-13



                                                        Estimated                     Estimated             Estimated
                                               No. of                     No. of                   No. of
                                                       Consumption                   Consumption           Consumption
                                             Consumers                  Consumers                Consumers
                                                          (MU)                          (MU)                  (MU)
Tariff    Category


          High Tension
                                                  5851          17942         6363          19438     6920          21058
            Industries including Railway
   I-A
                      Traction

                                                   786           998           803           1064      821           1135
   II-A    Recognised Education Inst. Etc.

                                                     7              4            9              4          10           4
  II- B       Places of Public worship

                                                  1499           1671         1587           1844     1681           2034
   III         Commercial and others

   IV          Lift Irrigation societies            12            12            12             14          12         15

                                                     3           445             3            471           3        499
    V                Pondicherry

   VI                                                0              0            0              0           0        445
               Supply to other states




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