LOVELY PROFESSIONAL UNIVERSITY by ezq1pG7K

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									                                    LOVELY PROFESSIONAL UNIVERSITY

                                       INSTRUCTION PLAN (for Lectures)

  Term:
  Course No. MGT811                    Course Title: Decision Analysis                                L: 4 T:0 P:0

  Textbook:
      1. Frederick S Hillier and Gerald J Lieberman, Introduction to Operations Research: Concept and
          cases, Eighth Edition, The Mc Graw Hill Company
  Other Specific Books:
  2. S.D. Sharma,Operations Research, Kedarnath Ramnath Merutt

  Other readings:
  S. No       Journal articles as compulsory reading (Complete reference)
  3           Luna and Reid, Mortgage selection using a decision tree approach, INTERFACES
              1986, 16:73-81, May-June 1986
  4           Fred E Williams, Decision theory and the inn keeper: An approach for setting hotel
              reservation policy, INTERFACES, vol 7, No 4, August 1977, pp 18-30
  5           Richard J Schonberger, Why projects are always late: A rational based on manual
              simulation of a PERT/CPM network, interfaces, vol 11,No.5, Oct1981, pp66-70
  6           Robert R Tripi, Learning investment management principles through Monte Carlo
              simulation, Interfaces May-June 1996, vol26, pp66-76
  7           An application of Goal programming to resolve a site location problem, Interfaces,
              June 1982, 12: 65-72

  Relevant websites:
  S.    Web address (Exact page address)                                                          Salient Features
  No
  8     www.dieoff.org/page163.html                                      Report of research
                                                                         briefing panel on
                                                                         decision making and
                                                                         problem solving
  9      http://people.revoledu.com/kardi/tutorial/AHP/index.html        Analytic hierarchy
                                                                         process tutorial
  10     http://mat.gsia.cmu.edu/classes/dynamic/dynamic.html            Tutorial on dynamic
                                                                         programming
  11     www.csupomona.edu/~hco/ManagementScience/10bGoalProgramming.ppt Exercise on goal
                                                                         programming
  12     www.vertex42.com/ExcelArticles/mc/NormalDistribution-Excel.html Graphing normal
                                                                         distribution curve in
                                                                         excel

  Detailed Plan for Lectures
Plan for 12 x L Lectures: 6 x L for before the MTE, 6 x L for after the MTE. Provide for at least 2 x L spill-over lecture.
(For MBA – Hon. & MBA- Hon. (International) Plan for 6*L lectures only and provide for at least 2*L spill-over lectures)
  Lecture     Topic                                 Chapters /     Assignment /       Pedagogical aid      Date
  No.                                               Sections       Task to be         Demonstration/       Delivered2
                                                    of             assigned to        case study /
                                              Textbook     students       images/
                                              / Other                     animations etc5.
                                              reference1
                                                           3       DoS4


1       Herbert-Simon school of thought       8)                          Power point
        on Decision Analysis.                                             presentation
2-3     A review of Probability Theory-       Chapter14    Assi           Problem solving
        addition and multiplicative laws,     of 2)        gnm
        Binomial                                           ent 1

4-5     Poisson distribution                  Chapter                     Problem solving
                                              15 of 2)
6-7     Normal Distribution,                  Chapter                     Problem solving
                                              15 of 2)
                                              12)
8-9     Baysian approach                      Section                     Problem solving
                                              18.10 of
                                              2)
10      markov chains                         Chapter                     Problem solving
                                              16 of 2)
11      Decision Theory: Types of             Chapter      Assi           Problem solving
        decision, components of decision      15 of 1)     gnm
        making, characteristics of decision                ent 2
        model, Types of environment:
        certainty, uncertainty and risk

12-13   The expected monetary value,          Chapter                     Problem solving
        Expected value of perfect             18 of 2),
        information, Expected opportunity     4)
        loss,

14-15   Decision making under                 Chapter                     Problem solving
        uncertainty- criterion of             18 of 2)
        pessimism, optimism, Realism
        and rationality
16-17   Decision tree analysis                Chapter      Assi           Problem solving
                                              18 of 2),    gnm
                                              3)           ent 3
18      Decision making under utilities       Chapter
                                              18 of 2)
19      Decision making under conflict        Chapter      Assi           Problem solving
        Game theory, zero sum and non         14 of 1)     gnm
        zero sum games,                                    ent 4
20-21   two person zero sum games, pure       Chapter                     Problem solving
        strategies,                           14 of 1)

22-23   mixed strategies, the rules of        Chapter                     Problem solving
         dominance.                             14 of 1)
24       PERT & CPM Models for project          Chapter     Assi      Problem solving
         planning: project scheduling with      25 of 2),   gnm
         uncertain activity times,              5)          ent 5

25-26    project time-cost trade off.           Chapter               Problem solving
                                                25 of 2)
27-28-   Dynamic programming-                   Chapter33   Assi      Problem solving
29-30    application of the methodology to      of 2)       gnm
         the real life problems like shortest   10)         ent 6
         route problem, advertisement
         planning, knapsack problem,
31-32    Multi-objective Decision Making:       Chapter     Assi      Problem solving
         Review of simplex method, Goal         13 of 2)    gnm
         programming,                           11)         ent 7
33-34-   Single goal models                     Chapter               Problem solving
35                                              13 of 2)
36-37-   Multiple goal models                   Chapter               Problem solving
38                                              13 of 2),
                                                7)
39       Analytical Hierarchy process           9)                    Problem solving
40-41-   Replacement and Reliability            Chapter     Assi      Problem solving
42       Models: Failure mechanisms of          22 of 2)    gnm
         items, Replacement of items that                   ent 8
         detoriate- replacement policy for
         items whose maintenance cost
         increases with time and money
         value is constant
43-44    Replacement policy when                Chapter               Problem solving
         maintenance cost increases with        22 of 2)
         time and money value changes
         with constant rate
45       Group replacement policy              Chapter                     Problem solving
                                               22 of 2)
46-47     Recruitment and promotion            Chapter                     Problem solving
          problems                             22 of 2)
48        Monte Carlo simulation.              Chapter                     Problem solving
                                               17 of 2),
                                               6)
Additional material for spill over (for at least 2XL lectures)
1.        Sensitivity analysis using
          simplex method
2.        Integer linear programming
   Notes: 1. Use S. No of the reading above
           2. To be filled in on the date of delivery of lecture by the instructor
           3. Put assignment number from Assignment Table (below) against the lecture in which
               planned to be assigned (by co-ordinator).
           4. To be filled in on the date of assignment (by the instructor)
           5. Do not write Lecture, OHP, LCD projector etc.
Details of Assignments Planned:
Assignment       Details                           Nature of            Expected outcome
No.                                                Assignment
1                Numerical questions/situational   Problem sheets.      Student will develop a
                 examples on application of the    (Analyzing the       conceptual clarity to apply the
                 concepts of probability.          problem and          mathematical concepts in real
                                                   applying the         life situations.
                                                   concept)
2                Numerical questions/situational   Problem sheets.      Student will develop a
                 examples on application of the    (Analyzing the       conceptual clarity to apply the
                 concepts of Decision theory.      problem and          mathematical concepts in real
                                                   applying the         life situations.
                                                   concept)
3                Numerical questions/situational   Problem sheets.      Student will develop a
                 examples on application of the    (Analyzing the       conceptual clarity to apply the
                 concepts of decision tree.        problem and          mathematical concepts in real
                                                   applying the         life situations.
                                                   concept)
4                Numerical questions/situational   Problem sheets.      Student will develop a
                 examples on application of the    (Analyzing the       conceptual clarity to apply the
                 concepts of game theory.          problem and          mathematical concepts in real
                                                   applying the         life situations.
                                                   concept)
5                Numerical questions/situational   Problem sheets.      Student will develop a
                 examples on application of the    (Analyzing the       conceptual clarity to apply the
                 concepts of project evaluation.   problem and          mathematical concepts in real
                                                   applying the         life situations.
                                                   concept)
6                Numerical questions/situational   Problem sheets.      Student will develop a
                 examples on application of the    (Analyzing the       conceptual clarity to apply the
                 concepts of dynamic               problem and          mathematical concepts in real
                 programming.                      applying the         life situations.
                                                   concept)
7                Numerical questions/situational   Problem sheets.      Student will develop a
                 examples on application of the    (Analyzing the       conceptual clarity to apply the
                 concepts of goal programming.     problem and          mathematical concepts in real
                                                   applying the         life situations.
                                                   concept)
8                Numerical questions/situational   Problem sheets.      Student will develop a
                 examples on application of the    (Analyzing the       conceptual clarity to apply the
                 concepts of replacement policies. problem and          mathematical concepts in real
                                                   applying the         life situations.
                                                   concept)
Term paper to be allotted by lecture no 4          Due date of term paper:2 wks before the close of term

Scheme of CA: (out of 100)

Component                           Frequency                           Marks out of 100
Attendance                                                                10
Home work based tests / quizes       08                                   72
Assignments
Term paper                                                                18
Lab performance (only if there is
a lab component)
Any other : specify


List of suggested topics for term paper [ at least 15 ] (Student to spend about 15 hrs on any one specified
assignment)
S. No      Topic
1          To critically examine the functioning of university mess using network analysis
2          To study the replacement policy of bulbs in university hostels
3          Use simulation analysis to forecast number of customers in departmental café on a
           particular day
4          Application of probability theory in designing guarantee policies by marketing
           companies.
5          To simulate the number of bulbs demanded by residents in a hostel
6          To simulate the number of leave applications expected in an office on normal week days.
7          To formulate an investment strategy for a small investor using dynamic programming.
8          Application of markov chains in manpower planning
9          Application of markov chains in accounts receivables
10         Application of markov chains in marketing
11         To develop weekly forecast of the daily demand of cakes in departmental café using
           simulation technique.
12         Application of dynamic programming in advising route selection by postman.
13         Applying goal programming to ascertain production level of furniture items of a local
           carpenter.
14         To study the promotional policies of a production industry
15         To study the recruitment policies of an industry

Instruction Plan for Lab component (Only for courses with lab component as well as the lecture
component)           NOT APPLICABLE FOR ‘MGT’ COURSES.


Proposed changes from the standard pedagogy for the course:




_________________________________________________
Prepared by ( instructional planner: Name, Signature & date)




 Comments of HOFD (Chief Academic Officer)


                                                                                         Signature & Date




 Comments of Dean of Faculty

                                                                                           Signature & Date




                                       Report
Lectures: - (to be filled by the instructor and submitted at the end of term of HOS through HOD)

S. No      Innovation introduced [ New pedagogy, new           Topic and lecture number where
           demonstration, case study, teaching aid, etc.       introduced
           NOT part of the instructional Plan




General Comments of the Instructor about the suitability of IP




Conduct of Tutorials

Tutorial    Date               Topics covered in the   Activities (like quiz, case study, doubt
No.                            Tutorial                clearing, any other)
Syllabus coverage report

 Syllabus coverage by one week before MTE
                             Satisfactory / Lagging by ___ lectures.
 Syllabus coverage by two week before ETE
                             Satisfactory / Lagging by ___ lectures.

________________________                                               ____________________
Signature of Instructors & date                                        Signature of HOD & date

								
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