Clay F. Richards, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute (203) 582-5201 FOR RELEASE: MAY 30, 2007
PENNSYLVANIA VOTERS BACK RENDELL PLAN TO HIKE SALES TAX, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; SUPPORT TO REDUCE LAWMAKERS AND SET TERM LIMITS
Despite the recent failure of one proposed tax reform plan, Pennsylvania voters support 56 – 39 percent Gov. Ed Rendell‟s proposal to hike state sales taxes 1 percent with part of the money used for local property tax relief, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to 54 – 40 percent support in a March 28 poll. By a 51 – 32 percent margin, Pennsylvania voters do not blame Gov. Rendell for the failure of the referendum swapping local income tax hikes for property tax cuts and give the Governor a 55 – 36 percent overall approval rating, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-peack) University poll finds. Voters disapprove 51 – 30 percent of the way Rendell is handling property taxes, compared to a 49 – 34 percent disapproval March 28, when his overall approval was 57 – 33 percent. “Pennsylvania voters are more and more convinced that a hike in the sales tax is the way to get property tax relief. Some 57 percent now support the proposed one percent sales tax hike to get money to cut property taxes, a slight increase over the last poll two months ago,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Gov. Rendell‟s approval rating remains strong and he maintains his „Teflon Ed‟ image with only about a third of the voters blaming him for the overwhelming defeat of his plan to trade lower property taxes for higher local income taxes. “But the Governor should be getting a little nervous as voter disapproval of his handling of property taxes increases for the fourth straight poll. For the first time, more than 50 percent disapprove of his performance on the issue.” -more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/May 30, 2007 – page 2 Property tax reform is “very important,” 57 percent of voters say, while 32 percent say it is “somewhat important.” Republicans split 48 – 46 percent in their support of the proposed sales tax hike, while Democrats support it 63 – 33 percent and independent voters back it 53 – 44 percent. Term Limits for State Lawmakers Pennsylvania voters disapprove 47 – 34 percent of the job the State Legislature is doing, compared to a 41 – 39 percent disapproval March 28. Voters support 51 – 32 percent a constitutional amendment that would reduce the number of state legislators from 253 to 201. Voters also support 75 – 19 percent a constitutional amendment limiting state legislators to a total of eight years in office: four two-year terms for State House members and two four-year terms for state senators. “Pennsylvania voters back term limits for state lawmakers 4 – 1. And by a slim majority, they would cut the number of lawmakers as well,” Richards said. Voters split 44 – 42 percent on their support of Rendell‟s proposal to lease the Pennsylvania turnpike to a private company. Voters believe 54 – 30 percent that a possible lease would result in “significant toll increases.” Pennsylvania public schools are “very good” or “fairly good,” 66 percent of voters say, and 74 percent say schools in their community are “very good” or “fairly good.” State spending on public schools should be increased, 52 percent of voters say, with 9 percent who say decrease spending and 35 percent who say keep it the same. And 44 percent say spend more money on schools, even if it means raising property taxes, while 40 percent say it‟s more important to cut property taxes, even if it means cutting school funding. “Two-thirds of Pennsylvania voters give high grades to public schools in the state, and a majority say spending on public schools should be increased. But voters split almost right down the middle when asked if that increase should come at the expense of higher property taxes,” Richards said. From May 22 – 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,318 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor? Tot Approve Disapprove DK/NA 55% 36 9 Alghny Approve Disapprove DK/NA 52% 38 11 Rep 35% 56 9 Philly 74% 17 9 Dem 71% 20 8 NthEst 50% 34 16 Ind 51% 40 9 SthEst 75% 19 7 Men 56% 39 5 NthWst 42% 49 9 Wom 54% 33 13 SthWst 41% 49 9 Cntrl 46% 46 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor? (* Also 46% on 10/5/2005, 4/22/2004, 3/18/2004 and 12/16/2003) Highest Approve Feb 7 2007 61 30 9 Lowest Approve Apr 5 2006* 46 37 17
May 30 2007 Approve Disapprove DK/NA 55 36 9
Mar 28 2007 57 33 10
Feb 7 2007 61 30 9
Aug 16 2006 54 31 15
Jun 22 2006 55 30 15
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Tot Approve Disapprove DK/NA 34% 47 18 Alghny Approve Disapprove DK/NA 27% 48 25 Rep 27% 54 19 Philly 37% 45 18 Dem 43% 38 19 NthEst 30% 47 23 Ind 30% 55 15 SthEst 45% 32 22 Men 36% 49 15 NthWst 38% 49 14 Wom 33% 46 21 SthWst 24% 58 17 Cntrl 33% 54 13
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Highest Approve Apr 10 2003 49 24 27 Lowest Approve Oct 5 2005 26 60 14
May 30 2007 Approve Disapprove DK/NA 34 47 18
Mar 28 2007 39 41 20
Feb 7 2007 39 44 17
Aug 16 2006 31 52 17
Jun 22 2006 29 54 17
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Approve Disapprove DK/NA 56% 34 11 Alghny Approve Disapprove DK/NA 60% 30 10 Rep 48% 41 11 Philly 61% 30 9 Dem 62% 27 11 NthEst 49% 36 16 Ind 58% 34 9 SthEst 57% 31 12 Men 58% 35 8 NthWst 58% 32 10 Wom 53% 33 13 SthWst 47% 44 9 Cntrl 56% 35 9
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also 60% on 5/22/2003 & 2/21/2003) Highest Approve Jul 13 2005* 60 30 10 Lowest Approve Apr 22 2004 47 36 17
May 30 2007 Approve Disapprove DK/NA 56 34 11
Mar 28 2007 59 29 12
Feb 7 2007 59 33 8
Aug 15 2006 50 37 13
Jun 21 2006 52 36 12
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Approve Disapprove DK/NA 47% 21 32 Alghny Approve Disapprove DK/NA 40% 23 36 Rep 30% 35 35 Philly 41% 14 45 Dem 61% 12 27 NthEst 56% 18 26 Ind 48% 16 36 SthEst 41% 18 40 Men 48% 24 28 NthWst 54% 25 22 Wom 46% 18 36 SthWst 52% 26 22 Cntrl 49% 22 29
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator? May 30 2007 Approve Disapprove DK/NA 47 21 32 Mar 28 2007 46 18 35 Feb 7 2007 49 19 32
27. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling property taxes? Tot Approve Disapprove DK/NA 30% 51 19 Alghny Approve Disapprove DK/NA 35% 46 19 Rep 18% 66 16 Philly 47% 31 22 Dem 42% 39 19 NthEst 28% 55 17 Ind 23% 57 20 SthEst 36% 41 23 Men 31% 54 15 NthWst 26% 58 16 Wom 28% 49 23 SthWst 19% 59 22 Cntrl 22% 62 16
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling property taxes? May 30 2007 Approve Disapprove DK/NA 30 51 19 Mar 28 2007 34 49 17 Feb 7 2007 36 47 17 Jun 22 2006 39 41 20 Jul 13 2004 41 43 16 Apr 22 2004 29 50 21 Feb 20 2003 33 33 34
28. Do you support or oppose a constitutional amendment now being debated in the legislature that would lower the number of state legislators in Pennsylvania from 253 to 201, eliminating 52 legislators? Tot Support Oppose DK/NA 51% 32 17 Alghny Support Oppose DK/NA 67% 19 14 Rep 56% 26 18 Philly 24% 44 32 Dem 46% 38 16 NthEst 46% 37 17 Ind 55% 30 16 SthEst 43% 39 18 Men 57% 31 12 NthWst 64% 24 12 Wom 46% 33 21 SthWst 58% 29 13 Cntrl 57% 30 13
29. Do you support or oppose a constitutional amendment limiting state senators to 2 four-year terms, and state House members to 4 two-year terms meaning state senators and house members would serve no more than 8 years in office? Tot Support Oppose DK/NA 75% 19 6 Alghny Support Oppose DK/NA 81% 12 7 Rep 81% 13 5 Philly 78% 15 6 Dem 72% 22 6 NthEst 71% 20 9 Ind 76% 19 5 SthEst 72% 25 4 Men 75% 20 6 NthWst 79% 13 8 Wom 76% 18 6 SthWst 81% 14 5 Cntrl 72% 22 6
30. Governor Rendell has proposed leasing the Pennsylvania turnpike to a private company, but keeping state control over toll increases and maintenance schedules. The money would be used to pay for highway and bridge construction. Do you support or oppose this proposal? Tot Support Oppose DK/NA 44% 42 14 Alghny Support Oppose DK/NA 41% 37 22 Rep 37% 46 17 Philly 46% 37 17 Dem 53% 36 11 NthEst 42% 45 13 Ind 36% 49 15 SthEst 45% 46 9 Men 45% 44 11 NthWst 49% 38 14 Wom 44% 40 16 SthWst 44% 42 14 Cntrl 45% 43 12
TREND: Governor Rendell has proposed leasing the Pennsylvania turnpike to a private company, but keeping state control over toll increases and maintenance schedules.The money would be used to pay for highway and bridge construction. Do you support or oppose this proposal? May 30 2007 Support Oppose DK/NA 44 42 14 Mar 28 2007 49 41 10
31. Governor Rendell says that leasing the turnpike would result in an upfront payment of about 12 - 18 billion dollars by the company leasing the turnpike. He says the state could invest that money and earn nearly one billion dollars a year in interest to be spent on roads and bridges. Does that make you more likely to support leasing the turnpike, less likely, or doesn't it affect your view? Tot More likely Less likely Doesn't affect view DK/NA 38% 15 40 7 Alghny More likely Less likely Doesn't affect view DK/NA 35% 16 37 12 Rep 34% 16 43 7 Philly 39% 19 33 8 Dem 42% 13 38 6 NthEst 34% 18 43 4 Ind 33% 19 42 6 SthEst 39% 15 40 6 Men 36% 16 42 6 NthWst 37% 13 44 6 Wom 39% 14 39 8 SthWst 38% 14 40 8 Cntrl 39% 14 42 6
33. Do you think leasing the turnpike to a private company would result in significant toll increases or don't you think so? Tot Yes No DK/NA 54% 30 16 Alghny Yes No DK/NA 44% 36 20 Rep 51% 31 18 Philly 63% 22 14 Dem 57% 30 14 NthEst 62% 28 11 Ind 53% 31 16 SthEst 61% 21 18 Men 57% 29 13 NthWst 51% 33 16 Wom 50% 31 19 SthWst 51% 34 16 Cntrl 47% 36 16
34. Do you think a private company would do a better job maintaining the turnpike than the state government does now, a worse job, or about the same? Tot Better Worse About the same DK/NA 30% 13 50 8 Alghny Better Worse About the same DK/NA 33% 8 47 12 Rep 34% 10 49 8 Philly 22% 16 56 6 Dem 26% 12 54 8 NthEst 29% 15 49 7 Ind 29% 20 45 6 SthEst 27% 15 50 9 Men 33% 15 47 5 NthWst 33% 11 51 4 Wom 26% 11 53 10 SthWst 30% 15 47 8 Cntrl 32% 12 50 7
35. How would you rate the quality of Pennsylvania's public schools? - Very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad? Tot Very good Fairly good Fairly bad Very bad DK/NA 12% 54 14 12 8 Alghny Very good Fairly good Fairly bad Very bad DK/NA 11% 48 23 9 8 Rep 13% 54 16 8 9 Philly 4% 25 20 41 11 Dem 12% 53 12 15 8 NthEst 16% 60 15 5 4 Ind 11% 56 15 10 8 SthEst 15% 57 6 7 14 Men 10% 55 16 12 7 NthWst 17% 52 10 16 4 Wom 15% 53 12 12 9 SthWst 13% 65 12 6 4 Cntrl 12% 60 13 8 7
36. How would you rate the quality of the public schools in your community - Very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad? Tot Very good Fairly good Fairly bad Very bad DK/NA 32% 42 10 11 4 Alghny Very good Fairly good Fairly bad Very bad DK/NA 23% 43 11 15 7 Rep 35% 43 9 9 4 Philly 5% 23 18 46 9 Dem 31% 41 11 13 4 NthEst 33% 48 13 4 2 Ind 30% 44 13 10 4 SthEst 60% 28 4 5 4 Men 31% 45 9 12 3 NthWst 30% 42 14 10 3 Wom 33% 40 11 10 5 SthWst 26% 61 7 2 4 Cntrl 31% 50 10 6 3
37. In general do you think state spending on the public schools in Pennsylvania should be increased, decreased, or kept about the same? Tot Increased Decreased Kept the same DK/NA 52% 9 35 4 Alghny Increased Decreased Kept the same DK/NA 54% 8 34 5 Rep 38% 14 44 4 Philly 67% 5 22 6 Dem 62% 4 30 4 NthEst 48% 8 42 2 Ind 53% 7 36 4 SthEst 53% 8 35 4 Men 47% 12 37 4 NthWst 51% 8 37 3 Wom 56% 6 34 5 SthWst 48% 10 39 3 Cntrl 47% 11 37 5
38. Do you think that property tax reform in Pennsylvania is very important, somewhat important, not too important or not important at all? Tot Very important Smwht important Not too important Not important at all DK/NA 57% 32 5 3 3 Alghny Very important Smwht important Not too important Not important at all DK/NA 51% 38 5 3 3 Rep 58% 30 5 4 3 Philly 57% 30 5 7 Dem 56% 34 4 3 2 NthEst 52% 34 8 2 4 Ind 58% 30 6 2 4 SthEst 57% 29 7 5 3 Men 60% 30 5 4 2 NthWst 64% 28 6 1 1 Wom 55% 33 5 3 5 SthWst 60% 32 4 2 3 Cntrl 59% 32 5 2 2
39. Which comes closer to your point of view: A) Public schools in Pennsylvania need more money, even if it means increasing property taxes to get it. OR B) Property taxes in Pennsylvania need to be lowered, even if it means cutting public school budgets to do it. Tot A) Increase sch budget B) Lower prop taxes DK/NA A) Increase sch budget B) Lower prop taxes DK/NA 44% 40 15 Alghny 48% 38 14 Rep 31% 53 17 Philly 58% 21 21 Dem 54% 34 12 NthEst 38% 45 18 Ind 45% 37 18 SthEst 44% 43 13 Men 41% 44 16 NthWst 39% 46 15 Wom 47% 37 15 SthWst 41% 47 13 Cntrl 42% 42 16
40. As you may know voters in local school districts across Pennsylvania have rejected the plan to lower property taxes by increasing local income taxes. Do you think that governor Rendell should be blamed for this defeat or isn't he responsible? Tot Yes/Blamed No/Not responsible DK/NA 32% 51 17 Alghny Yes/Blamed No/Not responsible DK/NA 31% 48 21 Rep 39% 46 15 Philly 19% 61 20 Dem 27% 55 18 NthEst 37% 49 13 Ind 34% 50 16 SthEst 28% 55 17 Men 37% 52 10 NthWst 36% 54 10 Wom 28% 49 22 SthWst 35% 45 19 Cntrl 38% 46 16
41. Governor Rendell has proposed a one percent increase in the state sales tax, with part of the money being used for property tax relief. Do you support or oppose this sales tax increase to help lower property taxes? Tot Support Oppose DK/NA 56% 39 5 Alghny Support Oppose DK/NA 56% 38 5 Rep 48% 46 6 Philly 57% 38 5 Dem 63% 33 4 NthEst 56% 39 5 Ind 53% 44 3 SthEst 53% 42 5 Men 53% 44 3 NthWst 61% 36 3 Wom 58% 35 7 SthWst 45% 50 5 Cntrl 60% 36 4
TREND. Governor Rendell has proposed a one percent increase in the state sales tax, with part of the money being used for property tax relief. Do you support or oppose this sales tax increase to help lower property taxes? May 30 2007 Support Oppose DK/NA 56 39 5 Mar 28 2007 54% 40 6