Insight into the technology roadmap
for the years 2010-2013
1 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Contents Mobile Apps and App Stores ........................................................ 46
INTRODUCTION ................................................................................... 3 Web Apps .................................................................................... 54
MOBILE EVOLUTION TO 2010 ............................................................. 4 Mobile Web ................................................................................. 55
CONSUMER FREEDOM ....................................................................... 6 IM ................................................................................................ 60
THE MOBILE FUTURE ......................................................................... 7 Video and TV ............................................................................... 60
Operator Networks............................................................................. 7 Social Networks ........................................................................... 61
2G networks .................................................................................. 7 Location-based Communities ....................................................... 62
3G networks .................................................................................. 8 Payment ...................................................................................... 64
4G networks .................................................................................. 9 Channel usage ................................................................................ 68
Evolution of mobile WiFi .................................................................. 12 MOBILE MEDIA .................................................................................. 69
WiMAX ............................................................................................ 12 Mobile Content ................................................................................ 69
Pervasive networks.......................................................................... 13 The Guardian............................................................................... 69
Data Charging ................................................................................. 14 Sky .............................................................................................. 72
How are operators servicing business? ............................................ 15 The operator as content provider ..................................................... 72
Mobile Crediting to customer balance........................................... 15 Content Analysis.......................................................................... 73
DEVICES + OPERATING SYSTEMS .................................................. 17 Mobile Advertising ........................................................................... 73
Smartphone v Feature Phone .......................................................... 17 PORTRAITS FROM THE MOBILE WORLD OF 2013 .......................... 77
The growth of smartphones ............................................................. 18 Youth............................................................................................... 77
Convergence Devices...................................................................... 21 Early Adopter................................................................................... 78
The Mobile OS and Manufacturer Landscape .................................. 23 Housewife ....................................................................................... 79
Developments in Smartphone function ............................................. 32 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................. 80
Handset Segmentation .................................................................... 42 Overall recommendations ............................................................ 80
MOBILE CHANNELS........................................................................... 43 Some ideas for e-Government ..................................................... 81
SMS ............................................................................................ 43 REFERENCES.................................................................................... 83
MMS ............................................................................................ 46
2 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
INTRODUCTION process of forming such a mobile strategy. The latter, I contend, is
The development of the mobile sector since 2005 has been essential to any business/organization that aspires to render
astonishing. There was a time when the majority of users were services to consumers over the next decade.
happy for their mobile device simply to make and receive voice
calls. The situation is very different now.
There is now a vast demand for next generation services, and the
market has fragmented hugely in terms of what consumers want,
and who is able to provide it for them.
Combined with the proliferation of online services taking on a
mobile persona, and the social networks being taken to the very
heart of our digital lives, the advancement of mobile has been one
of the key shifts in our digital landscape.
This new significance of the channel has introduced both a new
complexity and an accompanying need for a deeper
understanding of the direction the market is taking.
The objective of this paper is to provide supporting information for
a mobile channel program for the next two years. It is not
possible to capture every facet of mobile in so brief a report, of
About the Author:
course, but I hope to outline a profile of the essential players, the
main access points for the end user, and the main tools that would Tim Dunn is a mobile marketing veteran with 10 years experience in the
consequently be required for such an endeavour. At the forefront field.
of my presentation is a delineation of a strategic approach that
As well as being Head of Mobile Marketing at Mobile
can be deployed so that stakeholders can transmit their message
Interactive Group, he is also Research Chair of the
to as many users as is feasible, and in a format that is most
DMA Mobile Council, a well-known agency trainer,
convenient, compelling, and reassuring. and speaker at mobile events and courses including
ISP, MMA, AdTech, and IPA.
This paper is not intended to represent a mobile strategy
document but, instead, an outline of the elements entailed in the
3 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
MOBILE EVOLUTION TO 2010 with the rapid evolution of the mobile landscape, the reasons for
Since the first commercial release of the mobile phone in 1979, this have changed profoundly.
the mobile landscape has developed, in just 30 years, from a
Where previously users saw their mobile as a basic tool for texting
patchy and inconvenient voice service to a richly featured
and calling, a simple extension of their landline phone, it now has
multimedia experience that has become core to the lives of huge
a raft of uses that include and extend beyond those of the PC.
swathes of the world s population.
This development can be broadly defined into three phases.
However, the arrival of faster data speeds triggered more fully
featured phones, and an increase in the array of products and
services taking advantage of them.
The mobile device has for many years ranked as one of the
public s most treasured possessions in all sectors of societyi ii, but
4 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
A significant driver for this is the personalisation agenda. Users
from the next generation of digital natives expect three key
qualities from the content and services in which they participate:
Many of these relatively new uses for the mobile phone will be
discussed at some length in this paper. It is the increasingly wide
variety of uses for the device among consumers that makes it
such a powerful and essential tool for the publishing of Public
Sector information, and the provision of Public Sector service.
Throughout the document, reference will be made to business
uses of the technology, where appropriate, although the business
sphere lags a long way behind consumers in terms of uptake and
5 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
CONSUMER FREEDOM Taking these as a given, this provided many challenges for the
The development of the modern digital landscape has revolved existing mobile service structure:
around the user. What the user wants, they are generally able to
- Network Operators
discover, absorb, and utilise on the internet, making choices about
While operators have been used to holding the relationship
platforms, providers, and content based on ease of use,
with the mobile consumer almost exclusively, they are now
accessibility, and relevance.
not able to provide the content and diversity of services
This free-wheeling capability through the digital landscape has that consumers want.
thus defined three key characteristics of any requirement from - Handset Manufacturers (OEMs)
Digital Natives: OEMs have not been able to create a telling user
experience via their devices and proprietary operating
- Choice systems that brings richness of content to consumers.
For any given service, there might be many providers, and - Content owners
users are empowered to choose the right one for them at With no easy route to the customers, and the typical web
any time tools of bookmarking, search etc unavailable, content
- Access owners found it hard to find and engage mobile consumers
The user is comfortable in a range of digital and real-world
situations for media consumption and service usage. If a
service is not available in a format, location or platform in
which they are comfortable, they will not choose it
Users do not want the usage of one service to be
dependent on the selection of any other service. They
want to be able to mix-and-match services and tools they
use, without having to buy in to all products from one The desire for something beyond the very basic services offered
provider through this model have created the current more varied mobile
- Personalisation ecosystem of apps, browsing, search, mobile content and more.
Mobile is often lauded as the most personal of devices,
and users want the way it looks and interacts with them to
reflect who they are as a person
6 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
THE MOBILE FUTURE 2G networks
2 or 2.5G (GPRS) networks are now the standard for the UK, and
Operator Networks the vast majority of the population have GPRS enabled phones,
The technology, products and strategy of the mobile network enabling the use of a wide variety of added value services.
operators have long defined the mobile experience of all users in
The maximum data throughput over GPRS is maximum 32-40
the UK, and much of their work continues to do so, as their
kbit/sec (as defined by the 3G standards) and can incur latency,
success at providing voice and data networks is critical to all
and up until the introduction of 3G, this was one of the primary
mobile devices and channels.
factors holding back the development of the mobile content and
However, operator revenues are under pressure, so decisions are services market.
being made whether to make this up through diversifying into
However, implementation of the GSM standard put in place some
other businesses, or to concentrate on core connectivity and risk
key market fundamentals that we now accept universally without
becoming the much-maligned dumb pipe .
The operators derive incremental revenues from content, media
- The SMS standard now installed on every device
and services, and their battle to retain this in the face of
- The acceptance of TCP/IP-based services
competition from a commercial world waking up to the scale of
mobile consumption is one of the key developments in the current This standardisation, and the interoperability between networks
mobile landscape. that it has afforded, have created a landscape that is significantly
less fragmented than it might have been.
The arrival of GPRS has allowed significant developments in
mobile behaviour, including:
- The common usage of operator portals for news and
- The downloading of mobile content, initially ringtones and
logos, then applications, video and music
- The use of mobile email, with early Blackberry devices
serving users well even on slower pre-3G connections
7 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Although some work has been done through the use of the EDGE, The increased data rates have permitted, along with the rapid
(2.75G) technology to accelerate the data throughput of the development of the 2.5G content services, the launch of the
networks further, the primary focus of operators is to roll out and following:
better service the 3G network.
- Streaming video (on most networks)
However, 2 and 2.5G networks will always form the backbone of - Mobile social networks
coverage in the UK, and it is important to bear in mind that all UK - Early mobile TV services
devices in the future will follow a dual-mode model, where they - Video-calling
will connect to the best signal available, and fall back to 2G signal - Mapping and navigation services
if they are not within 3G coverage. In this way devices optimise
the experience their users have within the network. Although one of the conditions of the 3G licence is that operators
must cover 80% of the UK s populationiii, the map of UK coverage
differs substantially between operators, and regionally.iv These
versions are the most recently published by OFCOM in summer of
3G networks 2009, although they change constantly as the networks improve
The 3G networks in the UK, which are based on UMTS their coverage. Also, as operators take a more open view on
technology, is the current widely supported standard for voice and network sharing, some areas of coverage from one MNO can also
higher-speed data connections. These can reach speeds of up to be accessed by customers of another.
14 MB/sec (where 3.5G/HSPA is available), although that
throughput is in practice rarely reached, as the signal degrades
with both the number of users connected to one mast
simultaneously, and the distance from the mast where the user is
positioned. The general maximum for 3G data throughput is 2
MB/sec. However, 3G networks are not standing still, and the
network operators are investing considerably in enabling 3.5G and
any other optimisations that can increase bandwidth.
One anecdote in this area is that although mobile TV was
launched over 3G some time ago, the only place a Vodafone user
can receive it in London is in the grounds of Southwark Cathedral
which has a Voda mast on top.
8 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
So while the growth of 3G coverage accelerates, there are around 1MB of data. Likewise users with feature phones average
significant gaps in the nationwide maps, which, with an eye on only 5-10 MB of data usage per monthvii.
digital inclusion, raises the possibility of those who live in the
countryside not being able to access any services that are Two devices have really blown the lid off the data networks:
designed with a 3G bearer in mind. There is also the strong
- The iPhone, whose users average 10-20 times the amount
possibility that services will not work for many in Wales and of data over the network
Scotland. - 3G dongles for laptops, who use on average 1.5GB of data
per month, ten times the usage of the average smartphone
3G Penetration (Western Europe)
100% The growth in data due to all these factors is clearly enormous,
and with the rate of growth accelerating, the operators are
reporting some phenomenal data consumption statistics: Orange
60% Forecast reported a 4,125% rise in data consumption from dongles in the
40% year to May 2009, and O2 reported a 18-fold rise in data usage in
0% It is therefore little surprise that the operators are working hard on
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 the next generation of technology to support the rising demand for
v rich-media interactions.
With the advancement of devices, a significant strain has been
placed on the 3G networks currently supported by the operators,
and there is much speculation, fuelled by a number of widely
publicisedvi failures in data networks across Europe, that all UK Why 4G?
data networks are running at, or close to, capacity. Consumers are demanding an increasing array of high-bandwidth
data services on the move, such as web browsing, email, and
The Blackberry fuelled the rise of data usage, but Blackberrys
particularly the use of mobile broadband through PC-connected
have not historically encouraged users to download significant
dongles. All of these services create a heavy load on the network
volumes of data, such as powerpoint presentations, due to the
operator infrastructure, even in areas of strong 3G coverage. The
difficulty of interacting with them on the device. Therefore the
standard UMTS and HSPA (3.5G) signals currently available
weight of 100 emails downloaded without attachments will use
9 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
cannot be upgraded to create a step-change in service, therefore to release new dongles with 4G chipsets, rather than wait
a new set of technology standards is necessary. for a new generation of handsets to be released
- Video services
What is 4G? The high bandwidth will finally enable the usage of high-
4G is a shorthand term referring to the fourth generation of cellular quality streaming and download of video products and
wireless standards. Although these standards are not globally services. The 4G systems will probably cause a rethink in
formalised, and many different technologies are being put forward the modes of serving video content
for commercial roll-out, it is generally agreed that 4G networks will - Mobile TV
be based on 3GPP Long Term Evolution or LTE for short. LTE Although Sky have an early-phase commercial release of
allows for data throughput at up to 100 Mbit/sec, which is more HDTV (see later section), 4G may enable a reliable IPTV
than 10 times the rate possible over an existing 3G network, even service to the mass market.
in ideal conditions. However, as with 3G networks, as the user - Games
moves away from the transmitting mast, they will experience an The 4G network will enable instant multi-player games
exponential decrease in the downlink rates achieved. over wireless networks. This will possibly lead to a
Although 4G technology will fundamentally alter the way that voice significant development of the portable games console
and data signals are encoded and relayed to the network, the only (PSP, nGage etc) market, and in conjunction with players
real change to the consumer experience will be a greater array of such as Microsoft (see section below) could create a mass
products available, and an increase in the performance of these market for multiplayer games and MMORPG. Latency of
products and services. transmission is not currently thought to be an issue
- Video calling
What will we do with 4G? This service, though technically available in the market for
Listed below are just some of the mobile services that will be some years, has never gained mass-market adoption. This
possible over 4G networks. They are listed in the order in which has been for a number of reasons, but primarily because
they are most likely to be commercialised: the signal available over 3G networks is not reliable
enough to create a great user experience.
- Mobile broadband
The operators have an imperative to reduce the heavy Roadmap for UK Deployment
load on the 3G network caused by the successful rollout The most advanced 4G offerings are in Oslo and Stockholm,
and marketing of 3G dongles for laptops. This service will where TeliaSonera have opened the first publicly available LTE
be easy to get to market as the operators will simply have network, reaching downlink speeds of 42.8 Mbit/sec.
10 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
The UK operators are in the early stages of deploying 4G
networks, and it will involve a significant investment to upgrade
the network with this technology. As such it will represent the
completion of the operators move from a voice calling network to
a mobile data network.
A likely rollout is as follows:
LTE networks to be launched tactically in London and the
South-East to coincide with the Olympics. Expect to see
high levels of brand marketing from operators announcing
the new dawn of connectivity
Roll-out of the LTE Advanced standard across the UK
networks nationwide, with data throughput of up to 150
MB/sec Constraining Factors around 4G Rollout
While 4G/LTE is virtually certain to happen in the UK, there are a
Example 4G Trialviii number of constraining factors:
As part of Telefonica s global LTE trials, O2 UK recently
implemented a small 4G network from various sites in Slough - Handset adoption
(illustrated). The trial was a success, including: The usage of 4G products requires a dedicated chipset in
the device, therefore no legacy handsets will be able to
- 100Mbit/sec achieved throughput access them. This requires OEMs to develop handsets
- Streaming HD video achieved based on the new networks, and for shared standards to
- Multi-player gaming run over the network with no manage this process.
noticeable latency - Operator timescales
While operators are often blamed for holding back the
development of the mobile ecosystem, the rollout of next-
gen networks is a colossal undertaking, hence the
timescales indicated above. However, as the improvement
of data services is a critical part of the operators future
11 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
business, I believe they will devote significant resource to o Video streaming requires 864kBits/second
it, and will each be seeking first-mover advantage in the - The network operators will not be able to manage or
field. Therefore I would not be surprised to see operators constrain the choice of content consumed by consumers,
going to market before the above timescale with localised so will have to find ways to backhaul the data
offerings similar to the Scandinavian one mentioned requirements from the cellular network
above. - A WiFi radio chip for a mobile device is a fraction of the
cost of a cellular data chip, so handset manufacturers will
So while 4G networks will certainly arrive, it is important to stress have no hesitation about WiFi-enabling the vast majority of
that we do live in a thriving and data rich 3G era right now, so it devices
would be a mistake to wait for deployment of 4G before rolling out - A WiFi hub can cover up to 100m indoors, and up to 250m
any services. 4G will simply make services richer and faster rather outside, so a good spread of urban mobile data usage
than change the nature of them dramatically. could easily be ported on to WiFi through existing, or
cheap to build, infrastructure
However, we are some way off seeing a national WiFi network
Evolution of mobile WiFi
that could support this. The nature of WiFi is essentially chaotic in
Mobile users are clearly using more data-driven applications year-
that we are surrounded by WiFi constantly, but it is rarely
on-year. Although the network operators are publicly affirming that
accessible due to account and login restrictions. Applications such
4G/LTE is the long-term solution, there remains considerable
as The Cloud s FastConnect are going some way to harnessing
doubt elsewhere in the data communityix whether even 4G will be
the untapped power of the nation s silent WiFi coverage, but as
able to manage the enormous bandwidth requirements that
yet it has no direct impact for mobile.
consumers will demand with the current and next generation of
internet services that will be expected to port straight on to mobile.
Drivers for the uptake of mobile WiFi WiMAX
WiFi providers such as The Cloud forecast that the use of WiFi by While the network operators are attempting to provide high-end
mobile devices will overtake the entire data capacity of the cellular data services through the roll-out of 3.5G and 4G networks,
networks within 3-5 years. Drivers for this will be: consumers are being approached also from the Broadband
- High-quality data services are becoming more and more sector. As well as wireless hotspots described above, a
widely used competitor technology to 4G is WiMAX (Worldwide Interoperability
for Microwave Access).
o Hi-Definition YouTube requires 600 kBits/second
12 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
WiMAX is essentially a broadband access point for multiple social behaviour / violent crime reduction team with video
devices over a much larger area than can be deployed using a recording devices for victim and witness interviews rather than
traditional wireless LAN device. In the US, where WiMAX is most still cameras and notebooks
advanced, the provider ClearWire has delivered coverage to
The trial demonstrated considerable benefits to a future roll-out of
Portland, Oregon, and is currently expanding to 9 further
WiMAX across a range of public service scenarios.
While initial excitement over the idea of WiMAX covering huge
urban areas with data service was considerable, the expectation Pervasive networks
on WiMAX has been scaled back over the past year. This is With uncertainty lingering over whether 4G/LTE will be able to
mostly due to the network operators, who have the established provide the bandwidth required for future applications, it is
infrastructure necessary to provide nationwide coverage, opting extremely likely that network operators and WiFi providers will
for LTE as their 4G standardx xi. begin to work together to provide a pervasive network . This
concept involves smart devices being able to switch data, voice,
or other transactions from a cellular mode to a WiFi mode
Maidstone Borough Council ran a trial in 2009, by creating a
seamlessly, in a continuation of the dual-mode devices we already
WiMAX area of 7.5 km² and running four usage scenarios.xii
see operating seamlessly between 2G and 3G.
- Public Safety
Real-time video was provided from accident scenes over the The pervasive network is a theory that has buy-in from both sides
network, enabling emergency services to develop better of the mobile data community: WiFi and network operator.
strategies for tackling situations while also saving time by However, the creation of a multi-spectrum client on a device that
delivering critical information live to teams while on their way to can transparently manage the hand-off of a transaction between
incidents WiFi and cellular networks has not yet been achieved. Even when
- CCTV trial this is possible, any future devices will need to be modified to
Deployed mobile CCTV cameras connecting over WiMAX, rather cater for the tweaks made to the frequency spectrum by different
than fixed cameras that are more costly and take longer to
- Building Site Inspection That said, the creation of a hardware/software combination that
Streamed high quality real-time video of structural situations can operate in a pervasive network environment is a target for the
mobile industry as a whole, but one that may not see full
- Workforce mobility scenario
realisation within a 5-year period.
Looked at the potential benefits of equipping the Council's anti-
13 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Data Charging The benefit of the move to a more contracted base is that
The notion of data-charging has long been an inhibitor to mobile contracts almost invariably come with a sizeable data allowance,
web, content, and application services, particularly for those and many now have unlimited data (subject to an excessive/fair
targeting content and messages at a price sensitive audience. usage policy).
The subject of consumer payment for data services is complex, if For PAYG users, the situation is also improving, with operators
not at times murky. However, there are some very positive trends including data more widely in tariffs, and usage of mobile internet
that should give heart to those wanting to provide data-based in particular now being a key selling point to younger
services. demographics. Sample tariffs available at the low end of the
Increase in share of post-pay contract users
As illustrated in the chart below, the operators are successfully Unlimited mobile web when you top up
O2 Text & Web
more than £10 in a month
converting the market into a contract market. Where the UK has
500MB included with £30 SIM-only plans.
historically been 70% PAYG, the gap is now closing. Please note Orange
Free internet for all Dolphin customers
that the chart below does not include business phones, which Vodafone 50p per day up to 25MB
when included show postpay contracts as having a clear lead. Three 150MB with every top-up, then 30p/MB
The attitude of the operatorsxiii regarding data charging runs as
- The offering of bundled and clearly communicated data
packages is in the best interests of the operator, and
charging per MB is going to be reduced as far as possible
- Users who do not have a bundle, then use a lot of data,
will encounter bill-shock and therefore stay away from
mobile data for the future this is clearly bad for the
consumer, and the operator s long-term business
- Data bundles are essential for smartphone devices on
contract or PAYG, because without them the devices are
- Pricing is set to be clear, fair and equitable for the user
14 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
- Bundling of data for consumers also helps with network However, there is little in the way of mobile innovation coming
capacity planning as it assists with foreknowledge of what from the operators, who are concentrating on devices, tariffs,
that user s behaviour is likely to be Blackberry server implementations, and expanding their offerings
from mobile phone provision to fixed broadband as well.
While young users have generally been particularly smart about
using data services, and often swap out SIM cards into the same For usages of mobile tech for business, see sections later in this
device to use whatever deal is on offer for texting, internet, calling document for channel applications of SMS, apps and more.
etc, the landscape for data charging should due to the factors
outlined above, become significantly less difficult, and more
predictable, over the coming years. Mobile Crediting to customer balance
In addition, simple market forces have played a great part in the An informal cross-operator initiative that is gaining traction is the
harmonisation of data charging. There is huge demand in the idea of using the mobile account to pay users real value, by
market for mobile data, which in turn has caused a adding money on to their PAYG balance, or reduce their next bill
commoditisation of the service as competition increases. for Pay Monthly customers.
Although uses of this scheme have so
far been undertaken only in the area of
How are operators servicing business? sales promotions for brands such as
The usage of advanced mobile tech is surprisingly undeveloped in Walkers and Fanta (pictured), this is a
the business world, with consumer services taking the leading role robust and potentially very useful
in the same way that they have done online. service to pay or compensate users
without having to offer cash, cheque or
However, it was the concept of mobile email on the Blackberry bank transfer, and is likely to be
that galvanised the use of the data networks, and transformed our included in many reward and loyalty
mobile way of working. programs over the next year or so.
Operator products For example, temporary employees or
Given that most business mobile systems from the SME sector contractors who have to make use of
upwards are ordered directly from the operators, this is where we taxis, personal mobiles or other
should look for mass adoption of services. sundries as part of their work for public services can simply text in
an authorised code given from their employer to have the amount
15 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
they are owed credited instantly to their mobile. Customer Segmentation
Here are some statistics relating to the current operator landscape
in the UK, as reported by ComScore M:metrics, Jan 2010.
Share of market per UK operator
Plan Type in the UK
16 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
DEVICES + OPERATING SYSTEMS
In the introduction, we saw how the need for consumer choice is
not serviced by the rigid model where the entire user experience
is in the hands of the network operator.
To create a new market in mobile content and experience, the
lead has been taken by device manufacturers, notably Apple, both
in terms of their hardware, but more importantly, in terms of the
software that drives the device, the operating system.
To facilitate a level of control over their mobile experience, users
have started to choose a range of products and devices which,
like the iPhone, place the user s desire to choose and select their
preferred content at the heart of the experience.
Smartphone v Feature Phone
Thus in an analysis of the three O s (Operator, OEM and It is fair to say that the mobile landscape has polarised around the
Operating System) the key factor in facilitating the user s desired idea of whether a device is a smart phone or not. Non-
experience is going to be the OS, and the respective OS smartphones generally called Feature Phones are still
designers success at integrating or rendering the content will be massively present in the UK market, and will remain so for some
the defining factor in which are widely adopted by the public in time.
years to come.
Given that the difference between the two is key, particularly when
defining approaches to marketing and providing service through
them, and considering that Feature Phones have a specific
relevance to the government s policy of digital inclusion, it is
worthwhile defining them in some detail.
17 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Feature Phone Definitionxiv - More powerful processors to run complex
In general, a feature phone such as this apps and image/video rendering
Samsung D800, has: - Large screen facilitates better web
browsing, often touch- or stylus-operated
- Proprietary operating system that - Data connectivity is a priority, so all will be
cannot be updated over the air and 3G and WiFi-enabled
has no roadmap for development on - Web browsing is through a fully featured
the device browser that does, at worst, a reasonable
- Limited running of apps beyond the job of rendering full web sites
very basic Java and BREW application - Fully-specced hardware including GPS,
languages. These apps have minimal accelerometer, high-end camera, large hard
functionality or interaction with the disc etc
phone features such as camera,
address book, messaging etc
- Small screen without touch capability
- Limited web browsing. Feature The growth of smartphones
phones can generally only view made-for-mobile WAP While canvassing opinion widely for the writing of this paper,
sites almost none of the industry players interviewed mentioned feature
- Few hardware features. Most feature phones will not phones or expressed the slightest interest in them as part of the
have onboard WiFi. Many will not have Bluetooth, 3G etc mobile future, and some venture so far as to say that the feature
- Few software features. Many will not have video and phone will be extinct in the near future.xvi
music players, sideload capability, email etc
A common view is that people now expect to have services like
xv Facebook, Google, Hotmail and YouTube at their fingertips.
The typical characteristics of a smartphone device, such as this Phones that don t do this will simply not be bought, especially by
Google G2, are: young people. To make this possible users need a smartphone
with a big screen and a good data connection.
- Smart operating systems that provide interfaces for
application developers, and can usually be updated The connection between device capability and usage of more
through a versioning process advanced mobile services such as browsing is proven, with
- Compatibility of apps an app written for the OS should touchscreen phones generating three times more downloading,
work across all phones that carry the OS
18 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
streaming and browsing than non-touchscreen devices, with 3G be released in the US for ~$30), and network operators are, as in
phones accounting for 85% of all such traffic.xvii the pictured example from Tmobile, heavily marketing entry-level
smartphones as an affordable option that gives you the
Globally, smartphones are a key driver for the mobile marketxviii, experience of a high-end device such as an iPhone, but without
with the trends for this kind of device continuing to risexix. the premium tariff.
However, at the same time, from a global perspective, there is a
growth in emerging markets of very basic devices that provide Handset manufacturers are also
simple texting and calling. clouding the picture by releasing their
so-called feature phones with a range
Smartphones, as defined above, currently represent around 37% of high-end capabilities. For example
of the devices currently in use in the UKxx. However, a view on the the new LG GD880 (pictured), for
future paints a clear vision of smartphone growth. A quick look at release in Spring 2010, is supposedly
network operator shops shows that of the phones on offer to a feature phonexxiv, but has an array of
prepay customers, around 35% are smartphonesxxi, while in the more advanced features such as large touchscreen, web browser,
postpay market, the offering is reversed, with around 65% of and contact syncing.
devices in the range being smartphones.
Also Microsoft are rumouredxxv to be entering the feature phone
Young people are those most engaged with the kind of digital space with some quasi-smart devices, which will further drive the
services now spreading across performance of the so-called feature phone towards the
smartphones (social networks, video smartphone arena.
etc) thus, it is safe to assume that this
demographic will lead the next
generation of smartphone adoption. The
view of Googlexxii is that these devices
will be mass market among all sections
of youth by 2011 and that now is the
time to be trialling modes and formats of
mobile communication to reach these
In addition, prices for smartphones are
fallingxxiii (an Android device is shortly to
19 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Likely segmental growth for smartphones
20 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Convergence Devices The convergence device is likely to be used in two key situations:
Users whose digital life is being ported from the fixed internet on out of home web browsing where the user needs to stay in
to mobile devices are to have their range of choices increased by touch, and sofa-browsing, where the user wants to go online but
the advent of a new sector of digital device the convergence can t be bothered to open a PC.
device. This is essentially a hybrid PC/mobile that displays many
The price point of both these device types is set to decline rapidly,
characteristics of both devices, but is ultimately neither.
with numerous models coming to market in the US at $150xxvi
The convergence device is only emerging in its early stages, and
is taking a number of forms:
- Smartbook The iPad is Apple s tablet device, and was launched with typical
Combining features of a fanfare in January 2010.
smartphone and a netbook, the
Reaction to the release was mixed, with Apple fans generally
smartbook features always-on
agreeing with Steve Jobs that the iPad is magical and
behaviour, cellular and WiFI
revolutionary , but others left wondering why anyone would want a
connectivity, QWERTY keyboard,
great big iPhone you can t make calls on.
reduced capability OS such as
Android, Chromium or Linux- In its favour, the iPad has a superb user interface, for reading
based variants, and ARM processors to achieve longer newspapers and books, and is supported by the iTunes content
battery life. portfolio. All iPhone apps work in it automatically, although many
- Tablet look a little odd when expanded to the iPad size. However an iPad
Features of a tablet include capacitive touchscreen for all SDK is available for developers who want to create apps and
data input and application usage, content specifically for the device.
multi-touch. The most renowned
example of the tablet is the Apple The list of negatives is rather longer: no multitasking, which
iPad, but there are countless seems a waste of such a powerful processor, and limits the
manufacturers now producing functionality to little beyond that of the iPhone, no camera, no
them, including this MSI model support for Flash, meaning popular web games such as Farmville,
that runs the Android OS. and video sites such as Hulu won t work until recoded to HTML5,
there is little extensibility in the form of USB, HDMI etc to connect
to other devices.
21 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
With all these drawbacks, the iPad does not seem to be satisfying - Targeting
the needs of those looking for a stylish portable PC, and without Generally this kind of device would be assumed to be
even an SMS application, it certainly isn t a mobile phone. initially used by typical early-adopters. However, as the
Therefore with the book-reader the only new and impressive piece price point for non-Apple devices may start at a not
of functionality, it could be, as described by one criticxxvii, a dissimilar point from smartphones, this remains to be seen.
magical, revolutionary Kindle . Browser-based targeting for mobile advertising should be
possible, although it is likely that most sites and networks
However, the device has sparked excitement from the media initially will simply treat convergence devices as web
sector, with print titles such as the Guardianxxviii and Conde Nastxxix devices.
having firm plans to deliver iPad formats, due to the device s
predicted high-end demographic and positive book/magazine
reading experience. A recent survey by AdMobxxx revealed that
16% of iPhone users plan to purchase an iPad within 6 months.
Approach to convergence devices
Smartbooks and tablets are not currently widespread in the UK.
However, should they spread, the techniques for engaging with
their users are likely to be:
Assuming that the devices ship with mobile-based OS,
which are likely to be Android, Apple and MeeGo, apps
should be developed in the native formats and distributed
and marketed through these app store channels
It is expected that Windows 7 will move on to tablets as
well, with many users seeking out the familiar desktop
experience on the more portable device
The devices will have specific browsing properties related
to screen size, touch navigation etc. A new set of browser
properties will have to be developed and adhered to in
order to optimise the user experience.
22 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
The Mobile OS and Manufacturer Landscape market by 2014, and in the absence of a comparable UK forecast,
the author predicts the UK market will grow to 60% over a similar
With the operating system of the mobile device becoming the
defining factor of user choice, and how content and service is
enabled through mobile, this section will take a look at the current
Apple and iPhone
status and potential future of the major players in the space.
The launch of the iPhone has arguably been the greatest stimulus
The graph below shows release figures from Gartner on the share to the development of the mobile landscape over the past 5 years,
of the smartphone market from 2008-2009, and adds a forecast and is widely seen to be responsible for the huge growth of the
for the major smartphone OS s to 2012. While Symbian sees its mobile internet, the mass adoption and commercialisation of
dominant position eroded, the forecast sees Android as the main mobile apps, the mobilisation of social networks, and the
beneficiary, although it starts from almost nothing. Microsoft revolution in both handset and OS design.
recovers some ground from its current weak position due to the
Some key stats are telling of the scale of the achievement, and
launch of Windows Phone 7 Series, and iPhone remains relatively
the changes that have been brought about in user behaviour:
- 3bn apps downloaded in 18 months, at a current rate of
60.0% 300,000 per day
50.0% - Despite having ~5% of the UK market, iPhone generates
Symbian over 60% of all mobile web impressions
Blackberry - iPhone owners are the most likely to purchase another
30.0% phone from the same manufacturerxxxi
20.0% - Vodafone sold 50,000 units on launch day alonexxxii
10.0% The iPhone, and how to address its users, is therefore a critical
0.0% part of mobile strategy moving forwards.
2008 2009 2012
The Future for iPhone
Apple are famously tight-lipped around anything to do with product
It should be noted that all these shares are of the smartphone development. Therefore anyone trying to predict their next move
market, rather than the mobile market as a whole. The
smartphone market itself is forecast to grow to 37% of the global
23 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
relies on industry rumour and conjecture. However, of the rumours Unlike most leading mobile OS to this point, Android was created
to emerge recently, these are the most credible: as open source software, under the auspices of the Open
Handset Alliance, a consortium of hardware, software and
- A new device ( iPhone 4G ) will be release in Summer telecom companies dedicated to advancing open standards for
2010, or perhaps just a major 4.0 software release for mobile devices.
- The new device/software will support multi-tasking for all or As it is open source, handset manufacturers and developers can
specially selected apps therefore customise the flavour of Android shipped with devices,
- Reduced price to broaden market share and apps can embed themselves much deeper into the OS than
- Improved AMOLED screen from Samsung the superficial runtime-based model preferred by Apple and
- Improved camera, and support for video chat executed on most other devices.
- Enhanced gesture controls to be released, such as triple
tap or long tap It also means, that Google get to install and embed their software
- Built-in NFC chip and products within the device, to make them the de facto choice
of all Android users, thus taking a share of the rapidly expanding
mobile search market.
Google s dynamic entry into the mobile Strategy
marketplace, with its Android operating system, Google s strategy is simply to offer the Android OS to as many
and a raft of mobile products and services in device manufacturers as possible to achieve mass reach within
addition to its key search technology, has certainly the mobile landscape. The more users there are equipped with
caused some ruffling of feathers among the the OS, the more pages will be served
network operatorsxxxiii. Existing players from manufacturers and through Google s mobile search and other
operators are clearly concerned about the possibility that Google products, and the more advertising revenue
could take over the mobile landscape in the same way that they will be generated.
have in the online search market.
Android is offered to handset manufacturers
Brief History for free, a model that would appear to give it
Having realised early on that the key component to owning the competitive advantage over Microsoft, who
user experience on mobile was the mobile OS, Google acquired charge a licence to manufacturers for
Android Inc, who developed the first version of the system, then Windows Mobile. This appeals to a number
launched Android to the market in November 2007. of OEMs, particularly those from a PC
24 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
background such as Toshiba, Acerxxxiv and Dell (pictured), and to The Android Opportunity
those who have no firmly established content model, such as From a UK government perspective, Android is interesting for two
Motorola and HTC. Key to the continued rollout of Android will be reasons:
the choices of large OEMs such as Samsung and LG. Both have
issued Android phones, but also have the option of using Symbian - Reach
3 or (in Samsung s case Bada) as well. Nokia have no plans to Android will be the second largest player in the OS market
implement Android on their devices as that would be in direct within a couple of years, and the users of the platform are
competition to their in-house Symbian OS and Ovi content more highly engaged with mobile content than those of
offering. Nokia/Symbian, with early figures from the Android Market
showing around 40 apps per userxxxix, and a very similar
Although Android is primarily aimed at the high-end smartphone browsing behaviour to the iPhonexl
market, the devices are sure to penetrate all sections of the - Consumers
market much quicker than the iPhone. For example, prices of Android users are currently at the very high-tech end of the
older models drop rapidly as they become outdated, so a top-end market, with 73% of them being male as of January 2010xli.
smartphone such as the HTC Hero can now be found retailing in However, this mix will doubtless shift to a more equal
the US for as little as $30xxxv. male/female split, just as the iPhone (57% male) has done
over time, and as the range of content that appeals to all
Also Google are rumoured to be developing phones specifically increases.
for the low end of the market to attack Nokia s global dominance Unlike Apple though, Google phones are heading towards
in the feature phone space. all sectors of the market, and Android is likely to be one of
the key factors involved in bringing a true smartphone
Android has gone from a standing start to being a major player in experience to lower demographics in the UK.
the smartphone space. A range of hero devices such as the
Motorola Droid (250,000 sales in its week of releasexxxvi), and the
HTC G2, have propelled Android to a current daily shipment of Nokia/Symbian
60,000 devicesxxxvii. The Sony Ericsson X10 will add to this Nokia have been the leading force behind the development of the
catalogue later in 2010. So although Android currently accounts mobile device for many years, and still hold a huge market share
for only ~5%xxxviii, of the UK smartphone market, this is set to rise globally and in the UK where it stands at 43%xlii.
to a point where Android outstrips the iPhone by 2012.
However, Nokia is widely viewed to have fallen behind
dramatically in the innovation stakes, with Apple, RIM and Android
25 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
taking over the valuable high-end smartphone field, resulting in The 5230 (pictured) is a bona fide smartphone, but retails at under
some steep decline in market share in the sectorxliii. £100 already on PAYG, and is already free with a contract on
some networks. It is extremely likely that Nokia will release similar
However, while Nokia s offering is continually doubted, particularly devices at a price point of £70 or less in 2010-11. Ultimately Nokia
with the perceived failure of major product and content launches with this price point, and other players like LG who have similar
such as Comes With Musicxliv, and often mocked within the mobile devices, will signal the end of the feature phone
communityxlv, Nokia through 2010-11 will fight back strongly with a among young demographics in the next 18
combination of devices, operating system revamp, and content. months.
Nokia devices At the top end of the market, Nokia are fighting
While Apple have consumed much of the hype surrounding new back against its smartphone competitors with
mobile devices since 2008, it should not escape notice that in the devices such as the Nokia X6xlviii (pictured) which
meantime Nokia have released a number of devices into the as well hardware including 32GB storage, TV Out
market to little acclaim, but enormous consumer uptake. compatibility, iPhone-style capacitive screen and
The Nokia 5800, for example, is currently the most widely used more, comes with a wide, if unfocused, range of
device in the UKxlvi, taking over from the Sony Ericsson K800 as on-board content from both Nokia s Ovi range
the top phone of choice for younger users, and is largely and third parties such as Lonely Planet, Michelin,
responsible for pushing the younger demographic in the direction EA and Gameloft.
of smartphones. OS Symbian 3
Nokia s device strategy is to create the best device in every Nokia s next-generation smartphone OS is Symbian 3. In open
competition with iPhone and Android, Symbian 3 is expected to be
sectorxlvii, and therefore will continue to push forwards in the low-
end device market as well as in the installed in all new Nokia smartphones by the second half of 2010.
smartphone sector where competition is The success of Symbian 3 is absolutely critical to Nokia retaining
fierce. its leading market share as the desire for enhanced features and
experience intensifies. It has also been made open-source so that
Among hero devices in the low-end
market is the 5230 that includes bundled developers, operators and other OEMs can use it freely and
Ovi content (see below) as well as customise versions for devices.
Facebook apps, GPS, Sat Nav and more. A number of key improvements to previous Symbian versions
have been made:
26 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
- HDMI support to enable users to plug into a TV and watch WM devices were at this time among the most sophisticated
in HD smartphones available.
- Music Store integration within the radio, so users can buy
tracks they listen to from any music store However, Microsoft was launching these products into a market
- Memory management optimisation that was not yet ready for mass smartphone adoption, and the
- Improved 2d and 3d graphics architecture devices only acquired niche business and geek audiences. Also
- 4G-ready, meaning apps are prepared for higher data the network infrastructure of 3G coverage, content downloads,
rates of the future WiFi etc was not supportive of a data-heavy device.
- Improved connectivity, enabling iPhone-style switching Since then, Microsoft have, in terms of agility to market, and
from cellular to WiFi particularly in depth of content offering, been soundly out-
- Enhanced UI, including multi-touch manoeuvred by other players, notably RIM and Apple, and have
- A widget-based homescreen (pictured below) seen sales decline even in an exploding smartphone marketl.
The state of affairs led to widespread dissatisfaction within
Microsoft, and led Steve Ballmer to comment that Microsoft had
screwed up with Windows Mobile . The current release of
Windows Mobile (6.5), was not supported by analysts as leading
to recovery, and thus Microsoft are pinning their
hopes of a recovery on Windows Phone 7
The new OS, recently given a debut at Mobile
World Congress in Barcelonali is likely to be
launched in time for the Christmas sales spike
2010, and Windows has confirmed partnerships
The Windows Mobile brand first emerged in 2003xlix, and was built
with Telefonica, Orange, Vodafone and
into a range of PDA-style mobile devices such as the O2 XDA and
QTEK 9100. Bundled with a range of software, including pocket
versions of Word, Outlook, Excel, and a full internet browser, the Microsoft, replicating the approach that has led
them to dominate the PC OS market over the
27 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
past 20 years, are taking a partnership approach, with OEM - Hotmail
partners including Samsung, LG, and HTC, as well as new mobile - Bing search
players from the PC world, such as Acer, Dell and HP. - Windows Live Messenger
- Windows Live
The Approach - Xbox Live
Microsoft have designed Windows Phone 7 Series around three - Zune music player
The user s Windows Live ID will enable all these services to
- Unique appearance spring to life with minimum set-up and configuration required. For
The iPhone and its any imitators have taken the lots of example, the user will be able to make games challenges to other
buttons in a row approach as far as it can, and their belief Xbox Live members from their device, and upload over WiFi all
is that users are already, or soon will, begin to experience their Zune playlists.
- Personalisation Prospects
With most smartphones, but particularly iPhone and Microsoft is at a make-or-break point in its approach to mobile,
Blackberry, the appearance of the device is governed by and the success of Windows Phone 7 Series is the key factor that
the OS, rather than by the user. Their view is that as the will decide this.
phone is the most personal device, it should be about who
you are and what you want to do with it There are many reasons for optimism:
- Integration - The first reaction to Windows Phone 7 Series has been
Although the OS does support stand-alone apps, it is extremely positivelii
structured to integrate information in ways that make
- The partnership approach to working with OEMs is proven
sense to a user. Therefore if they want to contact a friend, from the PC world
they will be able to see all that friend s contact info (phone,
- The broad approach of using data in a customer-centric
email, meetings scheduled, IM, social networks etc) in the way seems in line with current user needs, and is ahead of
Address Book, rather than having to open a series of apps the thinking from more app-centred OS providers
to find the user - Microsoft have a massive base of existing web product
Features users: over 20 million active Windows Live IDs in the UKliii,
Windows Phone 7 Series is exclusively for smartphone devices. It and a phone that seamlessly connects their mobile
aims to bring together seamlessly on to mobile the following consumption to their existing digital life will be attractive
existing Microsoft products:
28 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
There are of course obstacles in the way of mass uptake of This is not to say that their market share is insignificant, with over
Windows Phone 7 Series: 2m currently active in the UKliv, and with data suggesting a
significant kicklv in volumes towards the end of 2009.
- Microsoft will charge handset manufacturers a licence to
use the OS on their devices, whereas Android is free.
Microsoft justify this by stating that the support, shorter
time-to-market and better compatibility will ultimately
provide a better offering to OEMs, but this is as yet
- Windows Phone 7 Series is very late to market, and by the
time it is released, many users will be embedded in
alternative smartphone experiences
- Windows Phone 7 Series will doubtless work best for
consumers who are habitual users of Microsoft PC
products. Although Microsoft work extremely closely on
integrating less competitive products such as Facebook,
those who use iTunes for their music or Playstation for
gaming will be unable to benefit from the full experience of
the system But while RIM continue to make hay in the corporate space, with
- The Zune music player and ecosystem, which is a key part over 22% of the corporate market, they have grown to 3% among
of the offering, is not widely used in the UK, although the private users as well.
Zune HD is popular in the US. If the user s music collection
is not compatible, a Windows OS will be unattractive, if not
unworkable for many users
While Apple have stolen a march on the smartphone market, RIM,
who make the Blackberry line of mobile devices, have been
struggling to keep up.
29 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
- Nokia is the dominant player in the corporate space, with
half of the market
- RIM are a strong second, with their history as a business
- Apple are equal with Sony Ericsson in 3rd with 6%
For business purposes, it is clear that while the Blackberry is the
made-for-business device, Nokia as the de facto standard is an
excellent vehicle for business service and information in terms of
scale. However, many of these devices are low-end devices such
as the 6500 which are unsuitable for apps or a decent browsing
While most manufacturers have been developing their devices
The following chart illustrates the relative share that the major
from feature phones into smartphones, Blackberry have been
manufacturers have in the self-paid and corporate-paid sectors:
developing into smartphones from email devices. Early devices to
incorporate smartphone technology have been patchy, such as
the failed mechanical touchscreen on the Blackberry Stormlvi, but
more recent output such as the Bold 9700 have received more
One major statement of intent is the purchase of browser
company Torch Mobile in 2009, which will lead to the release of
the new WebKit-powered browser later in 2010.
A further line of expansion is to build on the surprising take-up of
the device by children and teenagers (see 13-17 segment in
graph on previous page). The Blackberry has become a surprise
hero device in the segment due to its Blackberry Messenger
service (see section below in Mobile Channels).
A number of interesting findings arise from this graph:
30 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Samsung Bada Samsung, like Microsoft, work on a partnership model, only
Bada is the new operating system from Samsung to be released Samsung s relationships are with network operators rather than
along with its first device, the Samsung Wave, in Q2 2010. Billed hardware manufacturers. This takes the form of customised
as a feature-rich platform that delivers enhanced mobile versions of the OS to provide a joint offering.
experiences for consumers, and a support program for
developers lviii, Bada supports a new user interface, and comes Targeting
with its own App Store, that will enable developers to build apps Samsung have a significant heritage in selling high volumes of
that integrate deeply, iPhone-style) into the phone s features. mass market devices, with the D500, D900 and Tocco Ultra
amongst others being among the top-selling phones of the past 5
Although Bada is released into a crowded and dynamic OS years.
marketplace, the fact that Samsung is currently the No2 device
maker globally should give it some cut-through. This ethos is being applied to the next generation of functionality
Bada will aim to open up mass market handsets to smart
Samsung have not previously owned an OS, so the launch of
Bada is interesting news for their incumbents. Therefore, like Nokia and LG, we can expect to see Samsung
While Android has been released on a couple smartphones continue to replace feature phones in the lower end
of handsets, such as the Galaxy Portal, and of the demographic.
Android is set to remain on their rosterlix, Content
commentators speculate that the launch of The Samsung content offering will be led by the Bada Store, an
Bada could see the end of Samsung s app store open to third party developers. Bada apps are to be
relationship with Symbian. This would make written in C++ which lends itself to games development, and the
sense, as Bada and Symbian are in direct simple porting of console games on to the device.
competition for the mobile content space.
Industry speculation and past recordlx also hints that Samsung
The share of Samsung units that are might be the handset partner signed by Layar to embed their AR
apportioned to Bada and Android will also be browser globally.
interesting. Bada is an extremely important
strategic focus for Samsung, so it would be Content partnerships and OS versions for operators are to be
little surprise if Android was to start to be marginalised in its controlled at national level, so local content could stand a good
favour. chance of being promoted on the handset.
31 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Prospects the project has recently been backed by Orange for roll-out to its
Although Bada is not yet launched, the combination of market base.lxii
reach, pricing, and handset quality should ensure Bada not just
survives, but makes headway over the next few years, and,
although likely smaller than Android, could form a significant part
of any mobile strategy moving forwards. However, it is unlikely to LiMo is billed as the first truly open, hardware-independent,
be before mid-2011 that it hits significant market share. Linux-based operating system for mobile devices .lxiii The project is
One of the main challenges will be recruiting developers to its app governed by the LiMo Foundation.
store, but provided a decent content catalogue is created then 50 handset models have so far been released, but the LiMo
users will continue to benefit from the devices.
project is in competition with Android, which is also Linux-based,
and received a blow when Motorola downgraded their
membership of Limo due to their view that the Android platform
Others gives it a richer, more consistent foundation with strong support
for the ecosystem and developer community .lxiv
MeeGo is the name for a high-end smartphone OS that is being
developed jointly by Intel and Nokia. An open-source platform, it
will be based on Linux and previous projects Nokia s Maemo Developments in Smartphone function
and Intel s Moblin, which will now be terminated. The enormous change we are seeing in mobile consumption, and
the variety of services now regularly used by UK consumers, is of
MeeGo will be used by Intel partners for a wide range of devices course made possible by the improvement and innovation in the
including handsets, "netbooks" and Internet Protocol televisions. device hardware sector.
Intel will run an application store for these devices.
The obvious features that are a focus for device manufacturers
Nokia will create an ARM-based version of MeeGo with a are: better screens, multi-touch, compass, accelerometer,
proprietary user experience on N900 series devices, which will augmented reality, AR gaming, and connectivity.
remain Nokia's ultra-high-end smartphone platform and will use
the Ovi store. This section aims to look at some of the less obvious current and
future developments in phone capability that will nonetheless
Although MeeGo is in its early stages of development, there will impact on the kind of services that are provided in the future.
be high-end handsets in the market running it later in 2010lxi, and
32 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Background Running manager app, such as Advanced Task Killer (pictured)
The notion of various application runtimes persisting on a device
simultaneously is taken for granted by PC users. However, with Why Background Running is important
mobile, this is not always the case. 1. It fundamentally shifts the Apple-led view of a mobile as
being a phone with some apps on it to being an
Apple s iPhone OS, for example, insists that you can only use the integrated device which can play a more active role in the
app you re in . This creates a host of missed opportunities for user s life
users and developerslxv, and is a source of irritation to some 2. It enables both the user and app developers to create a
iPhone users, as it restricts the freedom they expect from the flavour of phone, with dynamic content and interactions
device. For example, if a user is walking along the street finding served to the user on a flexible and open basis
their way to a destination, while listening to music, and they want 3. It helps combat the common problem of inactive apps,
to stop to change albums, they have to close the navigation where users download an app due to an initial interest,
application to open the iPod player, thus potentially missing a turn. and then fail to open it regularly as it sits forgotten on a
A device with background running could operate the navigation page of their iPhone. Fewer than 5% of apps are still in
app and the iPod at the same time, and keep speaking turn-by- use a month after initial download.lxvi
turn instructions while the music is changed.
While iPhone s Notifications system provides a primitive interface
Whether by design, to capitalise on Apple s weakness in this to reawaken app usage, it by no means caters for the richness
regard, or as a simple evolutionary process towards a more and that a true background running framework can deliver.
more useful device, background running
has been built into some of the newer For example, an Android user who has downloaded a future Job
operating systems, primarily Android and Centre Plus app could be reminded the day before each
Windows Phone 7 Series. Applications for appointment of the time and location via a pop-up. He can be
these devices are able to run as processes offered the option on the pop-up to confirm or reschedule. A
in the background, while the user closes confirmation would be passed directly to the Job Centre Plus
their on-screen interfaces to perform booking system, with a reschedule triggering a phone call in either
another task, or stop using the phone. direction, or an opening of the full app pre-populated with a
Tasks can then be managed through an selection of dates within the mandated period.
interface, or through a separate task Likewise a health-care app for those with depression might initiate
a voice-led conversation with the user, where the phone speaks a
variety of questions about their current feelings, progress with
33 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
medication etc, and the user responds by selecting the relevant
multiple choice options through the interface.
The growth of the Android platform and other flexible platforms,
and the myriad of possibilities for designing dynamic interactions
around users actual needs means that this kind of experience
design should be a focus for the future.
The use of location is just one component of the mobile world that
has exploded since 2007. The use of location within the iPhone
for Google Maps, and the integration of the location APIs within
the iPhone SDK has made the use of location a core function of
the new generation of smartphones.
However, Apple cannot take all the credit for this revolution. As
Juniper have notedlxvii, it has taken the simultaneous development
of a number of elements to create the seamless transition of
location-based services on to mobile.
All of these will continue to evolve and improve over the next few
years, and with more and more developers aiming their products
and services at the emerging app stores, services will proliferate.
Juniper forecasts that revenues generated from mobile location
apps will more than quadruple by 2014.
Areas of mobile that will continue to benefit from the improved
location tools available today include:
Media owners rate location-enabled search as an extremely
34 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
powerful media tool, and Google s businesses should be encouraged to be part of location-based
local search (pictured) which works and visual directories on mobile devices.
across a number of browsers, is an
example of this function which is
forecast to grow
- Navigation NFC
Although it took some time for the Near Field Communication is a short-range wireless technology
iPhone software to allow turn-by-turn which enables the exchange of information, or identification of a
navigation, there are now a number of user or device, over a very short distance, eg 10 cm.
apps that allow it, and full navigation is
also supported by Nokia Maps NFC is already widely used in systems such as TFL s Oystercard,
- Mobile Social Communities (see and the Contactless Payment systems operated by banks and
section within Mobile Channels) credit card providers.
Tech VC firm Kleiner Perkins
recentlylxviii defined mobile location as a priority as You Are The next phase already underway for NFC is for the chips to be
Where You Go represents people s footstream in life. This is a incorporated into mobile devices themselves.
higher signal definition of what your interests are. If you can look
at other people s interest like you, that s extremely powerful. Current Usage
- Augmented Reality and visual search NFC handsets are as yet not widely available in the UK market, as
Location, combined with compass for direction, are key the desirable ecosystem to support their use and to make NFC a
components in many AR experiences
must-have component of a new phone does not yet exist. Without
While the use of location outside of the current realm of find-me such a desire from the consumer, handset manufacturers have
services and entertainment products is limited, there are limitless not been motivated to install NFC in their devices. Therefore NFC,
possibilities for what might be achieved. For example, if a user though a proven technology, has been a victim of the chicken-
had a 999 app installed on their phone, they could use it to trigger and-egg scenario that often befalls new developments in mobile.
a call to the emergency services that passed along with it all the Devices such as the Nokia 6131 with built-in NFC, while effective
meta-data around their exact current location, along with their ID as demonstrators of the technology, have not hit the mass market.
and callback details.
In the business sector, the use of location should be encouraged Although deployment of NFC mobile in the UK has been slow,
to streamline the arrival of tradesmen, goods and services, and 2010 will see the start of NFC roll-out in earnest.
35 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Leading the way will be financial institutions, who are planning
firmly to launch NFC in mobile to accompany their Contactless
credit and debit cards. First to market is likely to be a partnership
between Barclaycard and Orange, who are to release a
contactless device before the end of 2010lxix. This will allow
Barclaycard customers to wave-and-pay at a range of outlets. For
security reasons, the amount users will be able to spend per
transaction will be limited to £10.
Forecast of NFC devices
The following chart shows a forecast for NFC devices shipped
globally over the next two years. Although the figures are only a
little over a year old, they are already some way ahead of current
estimates of actual market penetration. A reasonable estimate
would put reality a year behind these forecasts.
Future uses of Mobile NFC
While there is little doubt that NFC will become a widely adopted
payment mechanic over the next decade, there is great potential
for the technology to have a broader function and become of great
utility to consumers.
For handset manufacturers to embed NFC tech widely in their
handset ranges, an ecosystem must develop to make it useful and
desirable for consumers. A number of handset manufacturers
such as Nokialxx, are creating partnerships to embed secure NFC
equipment more widely within their devices.
One small NFC tag in a user device could be used in a variety of
36 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
operates as a satellite prepaid Stored Value card associated with
the main account.
Stores that accept NFC payment in 2010 are associated with
quick low-value convenience payments, but these will broaden
considerably from 2011 onwards.
NFC chips aren t only able to communicate with fixed terminals
such as ePOS systems and ID verification; they can also connect
and exchange data with other peer devices. This will enable in the
long term the creation of services whereby users can pay real
money from mobile device to mobile device by swiping them
Mobile ID recognition
NFC chips can store small amounts of ID information, but the This idea is in its early stages, with the standards for peer-to-peer
unique ID inherent in each NFC chip can be synced to a user ID in NFC only being set in Jan 2010lxxi, however, with the rapid pace of
any number of systems. Therefore in the same way that an office developments in the mobile payment space constantly
worker is tapped into a building using the unique ID in their NFC accelerating, a platform for mobile P2P payments is likely to be in
key fob, so a member of the public could use their NFC ID to trial before 2012.
check in to a Job Centre, collect a passport, carry their driving
licence etc. Transport and Ticketing
While NFC is widely used across transport systems including
Contactless Retailers TFL s Oystercard, and with the Government funding the biggest
Payment providers are encouraging the uptake of contactless urban transport authorities to switch to NFClxxii, it has yet to be
payment by shipping POS systems that feature the technology. implemented on mobile in the UK.
Mobile NFC devices will then be able to make payments at these
outlets, provided the NFC chip is synced with the credit card, or A 2008 trial of NFC Oystercard mobiles was conducted by O2 and
TFL, but while the results were extremely positive from a
37 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
consumer perspective, with 89% of the user base stating they no take-up of advertisers or content owners
would like to use Oystercard on their mobile in the futurelxxiii, there creating codes to be scanned.
are still no plans for Oyster to be deployed on mobile devices.
Therefore while the use of QR is ubiquitous in
However, more trials are ongoing across Europe, such as the Japanlxxv, there are few signs that the
current SNCF trial that enables users to purchase or top-up tickets placement of codes in the real world in the UK
to their mobile from any terminallxxiv. is about to get any traction.
Social Interface That s not to say that QR is not a powerful
Along with the rest of the NFC landscape, any social interfaces or idea the notion of taking a user from a brief
consumer content sharing tools are as yet unavailable. However, printed pamphlet into a detailed mobile site or
with the NFC P2P standards agreed, it will be possible, should app to service their information requirement
mobile OS and handset manufacturers launch the right products is strong, and ultimately it would be good for
to market, for users to swap content or contact details using NFC any public building to be coded so that users
peer to peer. For example, a Facebook app on an Android device who are in the area can scan to view its
could enable users to friend each other through touching devices official web site, opening hours, key staff,
at an event rather than having to search each other through an video content etc.
One significant move in the field could be an
inclusion of QR into Facebook. Unpublicised
tests in March 2010lxxvi have seen QR codes
Barcodes and QR added to Facebook profiles for user ID and
The use of barcode or QR scanning for mobile has been much for status updates, and this could be a
discussed in the UK since 2007. However, aside from some small significant part of Facebook s future in the
on-pack activity by brands such as Pepsi, there has been no location space..
commercial application for the technology outside of industrial
component ID in factories. There are two other small developments in
the QR field:
The reason for this lies in the fact that up until recently, users
have been extremely unlikely to download the required Java - Since the code scanner on many Android devices is very
application on to their mobile to scan codes, and there has been good, some Android fan sites like Android Anarchylxxvii
38 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
feature a QR code to open the Android Market to the right As its name suggests, Goggles harnesses the power of Google s
page to download database of information, and makes it relevant to the location and
- Microsoft have recently launched a new code reader that orientation of the device (using compass and GPS), and then
is deployed to a variety of devices. Though this is in its performs a visual analysis of the content of the viewfinder based
early stages, it appears that Microsoft will be investing in on these factors as filters for search. When Google feeds back
the scheme.lxxviii some results, based on a successful analysis of the picture, the
- Marks & Spencer have trialled implementing QR codes on search results are shown via a built-in browser.
to some product to direct users to mobile web microsites
with product info and entertainment content Clearly Goggles is restricted to smartphones that support location
and compass, but Google s ambition is to make visual search a
key part of their offering. This may do little more than make their
Image Recognition already established offering more potent and more accessible to
The primary aim of image recognition technology is likely to be the users, but it could in particular be useful to foreign visitors who
eventual enabling of visual search the analysis of a given image, would like to interpret our landscape in their own language.
and the feedback of relevant data to objects in the picture.
A widespread adoption could also have an impact on any AR
The first mover in the space, and the likely de facto standard directory-based services such as Layar, where the power of
product for usage of the technology, is Google Goggles, which Google s ready-made search engine will outrun the hand-made
has been released on Android devices via Android Market, and is data set required for a platform such as Layar.
scheduled for an iPhone release, and versions for other platforms,
later in 2010lxxix.
Augmented Reality, within a mobile context, refers to a view on
the world through the viewfinder of the camera that is augmented
through machine-generated imagery or information.
There are numerous elements that go to create an AR
39 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
use this location data to pull down from the data source
info which is relevant to their current location
Uses of AR
Applications of AR are broadly divided between fun experiences
for games, advertising or
novelty value, and info
experiences which help
users find out more info
about places, services etc
An advanced AR game is
Sky Siege on the iPhone
- Web data feeds 3GS, which places
Any web data can be turned into a graphical element attacking helicopters over
within the AR view. Typically it will be data that has some the camera view which must then be shot down by the user. As
kind of geographical reference point to make the rendering the game also integrates with the compass, the user has to
of it relevant to the user viewing it physically turn around to defend themselves.
- Camera view
The camera is clearly a key component of the experience An example of an info
to provide the backdrop and context for the machine- service is WikiTude, which
generated components takes location-sensitive
- Compass information from Wikipedia
Although a compass is not required for all AR experiences, and other sources and
it adds an element of relevance and engagement due to places it over the camera
the view showing data in the right place in relation to the view as a series of clickable
- GPS Location
The nature of these info
Any phone with an on-board location system (whether it is
services means that they can often be used as an attractive and
based on GPS, Skyhook, LBS or any combination) can
interactive gateway to access location-based information, which
40 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
when requested via a click or touch, is then shown via the mobile without having to rely on users downloading the app from
internet, or data-driven pages within the AR app interface. an app store.
A significant early mover in the AR space is Layar, a Dutch
company that has created a range of AR browser versions, and
an infrastructure for serving content into the browser dynamically
(Directgov concept pictured).
Two developments with Layar are making it a noteworthy player in
the brand and marketing space:
- It is being selected as the preferred AR route for brands, in
partnership with handset manufacturers. For example in
January 2010, Samsung usedlxxx the Layar browser as the
vehicle to provide branded AR content and services from
Barclays, lastminute, thetrainline and more, on its Galaxy
Portal device (i5700)
- Layar have recently
announcedlxxxi (though not
named) a partnership with
one of the top 3 mobile
handset manufacturers to
embed the Layar browser on
future model releases. This
is a significant move as it
will increase the
discoverability and therefore
the user base for the
platform (currently at about
1m users globallylxxxii)
41 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Here are some statistics relating to the current handset landscape
in the UK, as reported by ComScore M:metrics, Jan 2010.
Handset Manufacturer (OEM) share
42 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
MOBILE CHANNELS SMS
In this section, I will attempt to describe all the major channels
through which the public sector might deploy content and services
over the next two years, and any channels which, due to the early
nature of their development, are less certain to offer value, but
should remain on the stakeholder s radar for the time being.
The definition of mobile channels should not be limited to those
technologies and platforms traditionally defined as mobile. As
outlined in the opening section on Consumer Freedom, a channel
should be reasonably defined as anything that the user does on
his or her mobile device as part of their normal daily behaviour .
Therefore included here are such mobile newcomers as social
networks, location-based communities, IM and others. These
dual-play platforms, whose origins are from the fixed internet,
have now completed, or are making, their transition into native
SMS is a mature and universally deployed standard on all phones
One significant trend in the channel landscape is the extent to in the UK, and thus along with voice is the only guaranteed
which Push mechanics (SMS, email, IM etc) are in the channel to create dialogue over mobile. As the chart above
ascendance. With an eye on the future, it may not be enough illustrates, the public s love of text keeps growing despite the
simply to make your content available and expect users to find it uptake of other mobile channels such as IM and mobile social
and use it. By incorporating channels and techniques through networks.
which users request and are pushed content, or even better, if
And as the second chart reveals, the usage of SMS, while
they can interact and converse with it dynamically, services can
extremely high in younger demographics, is now spreading
be made more in keeping with current users mobile lifestyles.
through to the older generation quickly, as they are taught to text
by younger relations. Those aged 45-54 have now caught up with
all groups younger than themselves, with 95% of people using
SMS, and now the only remaining growth is in the over 55s.
43 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
put off by IVR systems or the web, or those who do not have
English as a first language, can use text as a method with a low
stress-threshold to start using services
Consumers have long conversations with each other via text,
and it s a natural medium for a conversation see section below
Most people have their mobile on them at all times, and text can
often be used during the working day when the internet and
email can t
A simple text mechanic can be the first contact between a
brand/service and a consumer, which then leads to various
options such as info via the mobile web, a follow-up call, a
content or app download, or integration with location and web
While customer usage of SMS continues to go up and up, it is
frequently under-used as a marketing and service provision tool,
and many of the key properties of SMS are not fully understood. SMS for customer feedback
Text is extremely effective for letting people give you their
In this section, some of these properties, and ways in which their
opinions, and for doing research, due to people s inherent
usage might be increased, will be investigated.
propensity to chat through text.
Unique properties of SMS
This has been proven by a number of
The following are properties of SMS which should make it
brands using text for survey work. Not
considered as part of any business comms and service strategy.
only are SMS surveys cost-effective, they
- Cheap can also take much greater survey
At ~3.5p per message sent out, it s good value considering the samples than a traditional focus group,
near complete open rate. Email is cheaper to send, but with and at a much smaller cost. By using 0p-
open rates of only ~20% and click-throughs under 5%lxxxiv, it s rated shortcodes, it can be ensured that
not nearly as effective the user takes part in the survey
- Non-threatening absolutely free.
Many users, particularly those who are intimidated or otherwise
44 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
An example of a business using this mechanic is Douwe Egberts, Many businesses have implemented this type of SMS tool.
who after the launch of their Cafe Switch range, which Ocado, for example, reportlxxxv that since it has implemented its
incorporated a free sample campaign run over SMS, ran a survey SMS tool, it has seen a number of benefits, including:
to gauge opinion and gather feedback. In this survey, 6,000 users
were asked to participate, through an outbound SMS. Of this - Increased communication with staff which is quick and
base, 2,000 commenced the survey, which was 13 questions easy and strengthens day to day operations
long, each asked on a separate SMS, and over 1,700 completed - An effective tool to use to enhance levels of customer
all questions. service, adding value to the service delivered
Ocado have sent over 2.7 million SMS so far, and other
businesses such as the RAC make similar use of SMS to manage
SMS for business their remote workers and mobile customers.
Text messaging remains one of the quickest and simplest ways to
get news, service updates and information out to a user base, and A range of service providers such as Esendex and Infracast
the enterprise SMS space is one of the most developed, on the operate in this space, but running SMS as part of the business is
supplier side at least. not often used by small businesses or tradesmen, and if a
subsidised platform for business messaging was to be opened
Many businesses currently benefit from having SMS integrated and promoted, it could have a significant effect on a large number
into their resource planning and customer communications, of business customers.
particularly where staff are out and about, and communications
must be immediate and brief. Consumer confidence
Although consumer confidence in SMS has taken a few knocks,
particularly with the Crazy Frog premium rate
scandal and the well-publicised interaction TV
issues in 2007, consumers are generally very
trusting of quality brands that offer them an
SMS service. This is to be enhanced by the
work of trade bodies such as the DMA who have created the
Mobile Safe mark to define services as being compliant and safe
to engage with.
45 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
MMS Apple s virtually perfect end-to-end execution has seen the mobile
Picture messaging has endured many false dawns as the next big app as the most coveted, and most talked-about brand asset of
thing in mobile, but without fanfare has arrived as one of the 2009, although not always the best understood.
network services most used by consumers.
Apple s success was such that subsequently a host of players
MMS capability has crept up to around 80% of all UK devices, and from the handset, operator and OS arenas have created me-too
29% of users are now using the camera on the phone to send app stores, generating a raft of options, format clashes, and
MMS. general confusion which has complicated the marketplace, and
clouded a clear route for deployment.
Despite this habit, few services have been created in any sector to
take advantage of this. The few commercial examples of this tend This section aims to highlight the key metrics for the app stores
to be broadcast driven, such as the recent GMTV snow-picture that are currently operational, and illustrate some of the benefits,
requests that received thousands of submissions. drawbacks, and unique properties of each.
The bulk price of MMS outbound to users remains at the ~15p One of the undoubted truths of the apps future is that the stores
mark, making use of the channel relatively expensive per contact, that survive and flourish will be those that meet the needs of the
and with the increased usage of the mobile internet, many developer meaning the ones that are able to generate revenue
commercial uses that might take advantage of MMS are simply from consumer sales. An idea of the elements that must be in
sending URLs embedded in SMS. This price is unlikely to drop place for this to happen follows:
unless significant demand starts to be made of the channel from a
wholesale perspective, and this seems unlikely due to the usage
of apps and the mobile web.
Mobile Apps and App Stores
The exponential growth of mobile Apps has been the most
celebrated development in the mobile landscape in recent years,
and established the app as a central feature on many phones,
with most smartphones now looking like imitations of Apple s app-
46 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Apple downloading music, podcasts, and video through the
The release of the App Store into iTunes surprised virtually interface
everyone in the mobile world, to the degree that revenues from - Developer support
the store were not included in the handset supply deal done with The iPhone SDK makes it relatively quick and painless to
O2, resulting in a significant missed opportunity for the operator. write decent applications that maximise the capability of
Since launch, the App Store has provided some astounding the phone. Although developers regularly grumble about
statisticslxxxvi: the apps approval process, the system ensures that only
clean and approved apps make their way to the public
Total App Apps domain, bolstering trust in the eyes of the consumer
Apps in the Total app
submissions downloaded Easy billing
Store downloads -
(per day) per user/mon
Apple s real win was building the App Store on top of the
159,611 683 3bn+ 12.1
existing iTunes infrastructure. Not only does it mean there
are millions of registered credit card accounts, but
To go from a standing start, Apple has successfully completed the independence from network operator billing means that
circle of value above: Apple receive the full payment amount and can then share
with developers from a favourable starting point
- Great user experience - Volume of Content
Quite apart from having the best game-playing device on The favourable ecosystem means that many apps have
the market, and incorporating features that were 2 years been created, thus furthering consumer choice, and
ahead of the competition, the ease of downloading and enabling the apps for anything variety with which we are
installing complex apps and games to the device means now familiar
users have virtually no barrier to entry for individual apps.
Even an app that is 200MB in size can be downloaded and The success of the iTunes App Store shows no signs of abating,
installed in less than 2 minutes and as the ownership of the device spreads more widely across
The usage of dual interface (mobile and PC) to browse Orange, T-Mobile and Vodafone, we can reasonably expect to
and download adds to the consumer convenience see volumes increase. The arrival of the iPad is also likely to bring
- Volume of users a raft of new content owners to the platform.
With over 50m iPhone OS users worldwide, and over 65m
However, it should be noted that while the demographic for
iTunes users, there is significant scale built into the
iPhone itself remains very selective, with the average owner
existing infrastructure, and a ready-made audience used to
earning way more than the national average, there is a large base
47 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
of iPod Touch users who support these new devices . The big iPhone lessons for enterprise
download apps at a rate of are:
37%lxxxvii, higher than iPhone
owners. This is a significant - It's more than just another device
demographic with a much - It drives business culture change
younger base. Therefore the - It gives employees freedom to choose their own tools
channel should certainly not be - It changes the support model to self-service
ignored for campaigns wanting - It is a new platform for delivering content and collaboration
to attract a young demographic, applications to an increasingly mobile workforce
provided the mechanic does Thus far, the business apps in the iPhone app store are primarily
not depend on the use of practical business tools such as Quickoffice Connect (pictured),
iPhone features such as phone, which enables word processing and spreadsheets, time
GPS, compass etc.
management tools, scanners, PDF readers etc. Big movers in the
- Microsoft Exchange
iPhone for Business
Enabling calendar and mail sync at all
The iTunes App Store has a wealth of apps created with business
users in mind, and with the increasing push of the network - Salesforce
operators to sell the iPhone on corporate tariffs, this is set to Sales pipeline and contact tracking
increase. Over 20% of the UK mobile subscribers now access - Oracle CRM On-demand
their email on their mobilelxxxviii, rising to 49% for business users, Manages connection to a number of
so clearly there is a strong platform on which to build. business processes run by the on-
demand CRM product including
However, even before this has happened in huge numbers, there Business Approvals, Sales forecasts
are significant signs that Apple has penetrated around 10% of etc
small to medium sized enterprises, and 6% of business devices - Silverware XpensTracker
are now iPhone. A feature-rich expense tracker for the
Forresterlxxxix reports: we will see growth in the mobile wannabe - MobileFiles Pro
user segment as employees bring their personal devices, such as A file management tool enabling users to read and manage
the iPhone, into work and expect organisations to develop ways to standard office formats
48 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
- FlightTrack Pro Google take a share of 30% of app paid revenue from all sales,
Synchronises with a TripIt account to manage flight itineraries which are carried out via a credit card that must be entered at first
- Cisco WebEx usage. In this respect the opportunity for developers is similar to
Lets users join web conferences and manages the resizing of the Apple model.
the experience for the small screen
The rate of new apps being submitted to the Android Store has
With this array of services available from existing providers on the been dramatic, and the rate of rise is also accelerating, meaning
device, it is clear that the iPhone is becoming more and more a that Market now has significant momentumxci
part of the business life of the top section of the mobile workforce,
and is an ideal platform for business-focused tools.
However, the pricing model of Apple devices is, with the iPhone at
least, going to exclude them from the mass-market workforce.
Given the increased usage of apps for business, and the
enterprise sector focus on mobile working and always-on
information, a cross-OS mobile apps approach based on
syndication would seem a reasonable endeavour.
Launched in October 2008, Market is a pre-installed app on
Android devices that gives users access to a range of free and
paid content from third party developers.
Although the roll-out of Market has not been as smooth as that of
Total App Apps the iPhone App Store, with software versioning, carrier ROMs
Apps in the submissions Total app downloaded limiting the view that users have of apps and poor searchability all
Storexc to UK Store downloads per user per affecting users. However, many of these issues appear to be
(per day) month resolved in the new Android Market 2xcii, which takes a cleaner
33,000 Ave ~180 n/a 8.7 and more iPhone-like approach to search.
49 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Market does not support more than a very basic web search for App World, but there is a particularly high proportion of utilities,
apps, so the on-device discovery route is key. productivity, and business tools.
The momentum that has been achieved already by Android A look at the most popular apps in the store gives a much more
Market, combined with the anticipated growth of the Android user precise view on which content items are the most popular.
base and the wider demographic that will take it up, makes it a
serious candidate for a range of mobile apps in the near future. Of the top 25 apps currently being downloaded in the store, none
are business tools or utilities, with internet radio, IM, social
networks, and YouTube viewers being among the most popular,
clearly showing that even in the corporate market, users are
Blackberry App World adding content and personality to their phones.
Apps in the Countries Daily app
downloads Reception of the Blackberry App World has not been universally
Store served downloads
per user fulsomexciii, and has been rapidly overtaken in the eyes of
~6,000 180+ 1.5m 12 developers by Android and of course iPhone. Additional problems
for developers are caused by versioning between devices, and an
Blackberry App World was launched in April 2009, and has been SDK that lags behind its competition. Also it is inevitable that with
made available for a wide variety of devices including the Storm, devices that lack the fluent user experience of iPhone and
Pearl, and Curve. Android, the use of apps and games will be less compelling.
Themes 1,047 Nokia Ovi
Reference and 538
Apps in Countries Daily app
488 the Store served downloads
Entertainment 357 per user
Productivity 257 n/a 180+ 1.5m 12
Nokia, like many handset manufacturers, are keen to take a slice
While it is interesting to note that along with most other app of the mobile content pie, and to add value to their devices
stores, games represent the largest number of apps in Blackberry through acquisition and embedding of this content.
50 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Nokia are widely viewed as having failed in this area up to now, as for it, and if the platform can make them money. There is much
Google and Apple s App Stores have taken the limelight. debate in the mobile developer community around whether Ovi
However, Nokia s branded content service Ovi is being set up to will be able to do this, and the Symbian developer community is
correct this. substantially less active than those of iPhone and Android.
Ovi has four main components: Messaging, Music, Maps and the The Nokia Ovi store will be embedded on all major Nokia devices
Ovi Store. moving forward, thus providing an on-device content hub for
Nokia users. Should the user experience of Ovi Store continue to
The Ovi Apps store, launched in May 2009, is an apps store increase, and should Nokia realise the potential scale that their
where developers and content owners can place apps, ringtones, device reach gives them, then Ovi Store should become a major
wallpapers and more, and either charge or distribute for free. player in the mobile apps and content space. When this is viewed
Initial versions of Ovi met with a very mixed reactionxciv, but the alongside Nokia s continuing success in the lower end of the
platform has since improved, and a range of content has been market, this is a powerful argument for Nokia devices as a major
launched. Recent global stats indicate the communications platform for the government s digital inclusion
platform is gaining some tractionxcv: remit.
- New users increase 100% per
month for 2010 to date
- In the UK, apps and games are the Samsung Bada
core user focus, with traditional For details on the launch of the Bada app store, see earlier
mobile content such as ringtones section under Bada OS.
and logos larger in areas such as
- Skype app released on to Ovi in Windows Marketplace
Apps in the Countries Revenue
- UK is one of Ovi Store s top 10 Store served share
countries 250 29 70/30
- Content submitted from over 80
Although Windows Marketplace is currently very small, the picture
While these stats are strong and show growth, an app store can is in part deceiving, as there are over 18,000 apps also available
only be successful if there is a body of developers willing to build for the platform via third party app stores, or direct from the
51 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
developers. Microsoft manage a rigorous testing procedure to APIs such as location, billing, messaging, call control, and access
ensure quality of their apps on the Marketplace. to user information such as profile and demographic.
So although this is currently a small channel to a limited market, Litmus is platform agnostic and allows app promotion across any
the importance of apps to Microsoft is well known, to the degree OS type. As of this moment Litmus has small volumes in
they have published guidelines for porting apps over from Apple to comparison to mainstream OS-based app stores, but shold it
Microsoft platforms.xcvi achieve traction across the Telefonica footprint, and have a clinet
embedded across O2 handsets, it could start to develop some
Network Operator Stores interest from consumers, and then developers to create a raft of
In the rush to launch app stores created by the launch of Apples content.
version, a number of UK operators took similar initiatives.
Vodafone 360 Orange App Shop
The biggest of these in terms of consumer visibility was Vodafone The Shop is a newly launched effort from
360, billed as bringing your phone, email, chat and social network Orange to sell apps to their customers,
contacts together in one place. Launched in 2009 to great available across the UK, France, Spain and
fanfare, and with a good new device from Samsung, the platform Belgium. The Shop can be reached via
has nevertheless encountered an extremely mixed receptionxcvii, WAP, app or web. Currently only premium
with many commentators suggesting it has not been thought downloads are supported, which limits its
through from a user perspective and that it fundamentally fails to usefulness for marketing or public sector
offer the fluid and open user experience now demanded by usage. However, should this change, the
consumers. product is a well-managed and attractive
offering to Orange customers.
However, Vodafone have fought back by announcing salesxcviii of
300,000 devices globally, and 7,000 apps available to download.
O2 Litmus Independent App Stores
Having just reached its first birthday, O2 s Litmus is o2 s offering While much attention has been given to the premium brand app
to the developer community. It takes a learning approach to the stores run by Apple and Google, it is worth noting that there are
apps world, and aims to work collaboratively with developers to older and more established players already operating in the space
give them access to the O2 customer base. The main feature that can deliver excellent results for government campaigns.
offered by Litmus that is unique is the access to a set of network These app stores are independent of manufacturer and network
52 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
operator, and will deliver any kind of content for any kind of - 2,300 devices covered
phone. - 26m unique users per month globally
- Optimised search rankings
The key players in this space currently are GetJar, Mobango, and - High levels of repeat downloads
Mobile9, and an illustration of GetJar follows to demonstrate the
scale and power of the channel. Although GetJar has until now operated as a standalone entity,
2010 will see it expand through a program of white-labelling called
GetJar App Catalogue Express, to offer its content to network operator
Promoted as the world s largest cross-platform app store, GetJar portals, and this is already live with 3 UK and Carphone
delivers apps for any device even iPhone apps are promoted via Warehouse.
links through to the iTunes App Store.
A partnership with a business like GetJar is the only realistic way
The bulk of the GetJar catalogue are Java apps, and this explains for operators to bring a massive apps catalogue on to their
the enormous uptake of the platform by younger demographics, content portals, and while it competes with
as illustrated in the chart below, taken from their 2009 user their nascent offerings in the UK such as
survey. Betavine and Litmus, the operators are likely
to see GetJar or a competitor as the best way
to serve apps for feature phones and retain
those customers on operator content portals.
A case study of a government campaign on
GetJar is the Pocket Beatz app built for the
Knife Crime campaign It Doesn t Have to
Happen by Mobile Interactive Group. The app
was seeded to numerous app portals, and
GetJar has so far delivered over 73,000
Due to its heavy usage by, and rich content catalogue for, feature downloads at no media expense.
phones, GetJar and its competitors are an excellent route to reach
a young demographic with rich smart content.
GetJar has seen downloads grow over 300% in the past 12
53 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
The Wholesale Applications Community - The experience must be browser-based
One of the major announcements from Mobile World Congress in - It must be downloaded over an internet connection
Barcelona in Feb 2010 was the creation of the WAC. Its members - It must make significant usage of the features of a mobile
include most of the world s network operator groups and some device and give a dynamic experience (ie. not just
device manufacturers, and its mission is stated as to create a ... rendering flat HTML pages, which is a simple mobile
community that will establish a simple route to market for internet site)
developers ... This alliance will deliver scale unparalleled by any - It should use components of HTML5 to provide an
application distribution ecosystem in existence today. experience not possible on the regular mobile internet
- It is likely to make use of the Bondic runtime APIs
While the WACs claims that it will enable developers to create
one version of their application that can be used on multiple types Apps or Mobile Web?
of devices and operating systems (such as Symbian, Android, The notion of web apps, or apps that perform app-like functions
Windows etc) are fanciful in the extreme, what is potentially but within a web browser, have caused considerable excitement in
interesting is the promise of global network APIs that could enable terms of resolving the argument about Apps v Mobile Web.
apps to utilise network operator functions such as billing,
voicemail, SMS and more. Many who argue against the use of apps feel that the mobile app
landscape is too fragmented, that the cost of deploying apps to
To achieve any of its objectives, the WAC has an uphill task multiple platforms is too expensive, or that by using apps you are
ahead to unite the aims, objectives and platforms of the global discriminating against the non-
operator community, and thus feeling in the industry is that while smartphone audience.
the WAC s spirit is noble, it is unlikely to deliver much to the
market in the next 2-5 years, during which time the focus on apps The counter-argument is that the
may well have expired in favour of mobile web apps. mobile web cannot provide a rich
gaming experience, that the
content of typical XHTML pages is
extremely flat and unattractive,
Web Apps and that the mobile web cannot support dynamic or offline
There are significant differences of opinion around what Web apps should in theory marry up these elements, as HTML5
constitutes a mobile web app. For the purposes of this paper, the sites can support much richer experiences, and finally get around
best definition is: Apple s refusal to support Flash in its mobile apps and browsers.
54 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
It will also permit functional gameplay, as in this early example of HTML5
Mario Kart being written entirely in HTML5. The completion of the HTML5 specifications are not to be
completed until 2012, but many components are available to use
Roll-out now, or are available but only on some devicescii. Therefore the
The elements that go to create a web app are varied, and will use of some components is possible now, and these must be
arrive at different times, making it difficult to forecast when true looked at on a case-by-case basis
mobile web apps will be viable.
Browsers With so many unknowns around the full capability and timescales
Compatible browsers exist on most smartphones, including all for deploying true mobile web apps, a strategy for implementing
iPhone and Android devices. However it is unlikely that low-end them must be approached with caution.
feature-phones will support the functionality, so the advent of web
apps will require a separate versioning process from mobile web Many in the games community are taking the approachciii that to
maximise the benefit of the devices available, mobile apps are the
Bondi standards best strategy for the next 1-2 years, with a gradual move to
This set of standards will enable mobile web apps to emulate the browser based experiences as devices catch up with the new
capability of downloaded apps by interfacing with any elements of standards and languages of the mobile web app. However, for
the handset hardware. Bondi encompasses a set of APIs that can non-gaming information-driven services, that do not rely heavily
control and respond to device elements and states such as: on hardware features, a syndication approach is recommended,
which can feed into both mobile web and application solutions.
- Flight mode
- Battery status
- Camera presence
- SIM card details Mobile Web
- Bluetooth hardware The growth of the mobile internet is likely to be one of the most
- Signal strength significant developments in our digital evolution this decade.
Bondi is not yet implemented on many handsetsci, so the roll-out While use of the channel has remained sluggish throughout the
of highly functional web apps is dependent on this, or a rival noughties, it is widely thought that we are about to reach a tipping
standard, being deployed by device makers. point in adoption, sparked by:
The range of smart devices in the market, particularly the
55 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
iPhone, have made the experience of using the mobile and a roll-out of smartphones at lower prices.
web simpler and more pleasurable
The deployment of 3G and 3.5G networks to much of the
population has led to a wider array of content formats, and
faster download speeds
Increased usage of the channel has led major content
owners such as the BBC to create specific mobile sites to
service the mobile browser. Another key content driver to
the mobile web has been the social networks (see below)
The growing number of all-you-can-eat data contracts that
generally accompany a smartphone purchase is removing
cost restrictions from mobile browsing
These factors have caused a virtuous circle which have led to
mobile outpacing PC growth globally. In 2009 1.2bn mobile Usage Habits
devices were shipped, 20% of which had full internet browsers on Mobile is often thought of as a device that is mostly used when
board. Over the same period 200m PCs were shipped.civ Analysts out and about. However, successive studies have proved this not
forecast that more people will connect to the internet via mobile to be the case. One example is Orange s Exposure2 survey which
devices than through desktop PCs within 5 years.cv found that of mobile media consumers:
In the UK, there are now 18.9m unique users on the mobile web - 87% use mobile media at home
(around 1/3 of the population), and half of men between 18 and 44 - 73% use it when out and about
use their mobiles to go online.cvi - 48% use it when at work
- 47% use it on buses or trains
An analysis of youth mobile trends (pictured) shows that although
the channel is growing steeply for over 18 s, the habit has yet to In addition, usage during the various dayparts produced
form among children, although it is reasonable to expect that this interesting results, with mobile being the most consumed media
will change, subject to better data deals on pay-as-you-go tariffs, channel between the hours of 12pm-4pm, indicating that many
people are using it as a discrete browser channel while at work.
56 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Those who do become mobile browsers do tend to become Rendering techniques
habitual users: The standard technique for the rendering of content to the mobile
internet is through a mobile Content Management System. The
- 81% using it once per week or more mobile CMS has the following primary characteristics:
- 46% using it daily
- 35% using it weekly - Built-in and constantly updated database of mobile device
- 19% using it less often user agents, which includes information on screen size,
download and content rendering capabilities, bearer
capability and so on
Free web browsing - Asset optimisation, allowing all content to be rendered to
A recent development from the operators is the ability to eliminate the correct format for the individual device on the fly, so,
data charging when browsing certain sites through the white- for example, small-screen devices on a 2.5G network will
listing of the site URLs. be served images or video in a smaller format than a 3G
An early case study of this technique was created by Marks and smartphone
Spencer, who used it for their Christmas 2009 campaign featuring - Feed ingestion so that when content is pulled in, it can
Wallis and Gromit downloadable content. They experienced a be rendered automatically, ensuring that the mobile site is
20% uplift in usage of the site when the free browsing was always up to date, and minimising any manual
promoted. Network operators also venture that this uplift can be maintenance of the mobile site
significantly higher where it is featured prominently in the creative. - This set-up generally requires routing rules to be placed
Where 62% of consumerscvii still cite download charges as one of on the web server to detect mobile devices, and route
their primary concerns with the mobile web, this should be a key them to the mobile site instead of the full web version
tool in extending the reach of mobile sites across demographics
who are less confident in the medium or who are more price-
Emerging Best Practice
A range of techniques and creative approaches have emerged in
the design and promotion of mobile services.
57 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
- Hero Content
The sites feature hero banners showing the content that
the brands most want to highlight at that point in time. This
could be service improvements, a current marketing
campaign or news. Due to the restrictions of the small
screen, there is clearly less opportunity for the user s eye
to wander across multiple options, therefore it is imperative
to get the user to the content they need as quickly as
Although these are mobile sites, there is no need to
Knowledge of, and implementation of mobile CMSs is one of the reduce the visual impact in fact a decent mobile site can
factors holding up the widespread delivery of mobile sites in the be more impactful than a web site if it s well-designed.
UK. Even large graphics can be degraded to require little
Content - Standard navigation
Barclays and Shelter sites both show some of the characteristics Underneath the tactical components, repeat users of the
of a useful and well-designed site: site can find common functions
An effective search or FAQ system can save the user
valuable clicks. Generally the average browsing session
for mobile is much shorter than online, therefore it is
imperative that that the search is effective in giving the
As with any web service, a mobile site will prove ineffective unless
traffic is driven there.
58 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
The most effective traffic driver, as in the online realm, is likely to departments. Thus a user searching for Job Centre , will be
be search. Mobile search volumes are increasing rapidly year on routed through the www.jobcentreplus.gov.uk website, and will be
year, but are forecast to quadruple by 2012cviii. unlikely to find the Directgov job search.
Status of mobile web serving in the UK
While users have been rapidly increasing their traffic on the
mobile internet, the service provided to them on their mobile
devices by brands, retailers, the public sector and virtually every
organisation with a web site, has been sorely lacking.
An excellent example of this is the retail sector. GSMA statistics
show that of the top 15 retail sites accessed by mobile browsers in
the UK, each receiving over 20,000 unique visitors per month,
only one (Amazon) has provided a mobile-specific version of its
site for users.
A recent development in the market has seen Google cease to In the public sector, the situation is little better, with the following
promote mobile services delivered to mobile devices up the sites failing to work on mobile:
rankings. Therefore a key consideration for any brand wanting to
maximise the traffic delivered effectively to their mobile service - NHS Choices
must be the harmonisation of their search strategies across the - Business Link
mobile and online sites, and the effective handover of traffic from - Passport and Identity Service
not just home pages, but from deep-linked content pages within - Job Centre Plus
sites. - Border Agency/Immigration
- Department for Work and Pensions
The ideal scenario is for all pages of an online site to be replicated - HMRC
across mobile, and for each page to judge the device and render - DVLA
the site appropriately. - National Lottery
The situation with UK government is more complex, as many of Apart from on Directgov and the Citizens Advice Bureau, the
the mobile provisioned services and info points within Directgov mobile channel, and its millions of users, appear to be firmly
mobile are routed through the full web sites of the government sidelined and excluded from digital public life. An integrated cross-
59 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
departmental approach to this might enable interactions with Video and TV
millions of citizens over the coming years which, as things stand, Mobile TV has yet to develop into a significant channel in the UK.
will be denied them.
There are three routes through which the service could develop,
which are outlined below.
IM Broadcast Transmission
While IM has grown significantly in other parts of the world, such Using traditional broadcast technology, TV is transmitted directly
as the MXit platform in South Africa, it has so far failed to make its to a receiver in the handset. The user can then choose what
long-prophesised impact on SMS as a major mobile chat channel. channels to view in real-time.
However, this is not to dispute the emergence of the channel The standard selected for mobile TV in
Windows Live Messenger is already used on the mobile by over western Europe is DVB-H (Digital Video
2.6m users in the UK. Broadcasting for Handheld). Although initial
trials were conducted around the technology
BBM (Blackberry Messenger) has surprisingly in Oxford in 2005-6, the development of the
been discovered by a growing youth channel has been held up by the lack of
demographic (see earlier section on RIM). available spectrum in the UHF frequency,
Attracted by the promise of always-on chat and this will not be available until the analog
and the avoidance of SMS charges, tribes of TV signal vacates this part of the spectrum.
teenagers have been forging separate BBM
communities. These totally niche audiences In anticipation of this happening over the next
have not been used for any marketing two years, some early TV-enabled handsets
campaigns yet but could certainly be reached such as the Nokia 5330 (pictured) are to be
through innovative bot campaignscix. released in the UK through 2010. However, there are no firm
plans for national rollout of mobile TV.
Also, web-based IM systems and aggregators such as eBuddy
are moving into mobile. eBuddy is one of the most distributed With DVB-H rollout in limbo, it is possible that handset
Java apps globally, with over 42m units distributed via GetJar, and manufacturers will simply bypass the mobile TV standards, and
the iPhone version hitting the top 10 in most national iTunes begin embedding digital TV decoders into devices, that simply
stores. display programming from the regular DVB-T signal that already
powers Freeview throughout the UK.
60 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
At the moment there are few plans among the major communications options on Facebook (like voice/video chat and
manufacturers to embed DVB-T in their devices, and this is largely other services) continue to rise.
due to concerns over battery life within devices.
- During the course of the year, the number of Facebook
Cellular Transmission mobile users has risen to 100m monthly users globallycxiii
Despite the fact that the operator networks are hugely burdened - GSMA Mobile Media Metrics report that in December 2009
by the current levels of data traffic, and previous failures of mobile alone, 5 million people in the UK spent 2 billion minutes
TV effortscxa number of new services are now emerging over the between them on the mobile web version of Facebook,
cellular networks. making it the number 1 site ahead of the network operator
portals, BBC, Apple, Microsoft and Nokia
Prime among these is Sky Sports, where viewers can watch - 1/3 of 16-35 year older access Facebook and Twitter via
channels over 3G that are compressed using the H264 format. their mobilecxiv
Numbers are relatively small at the moment, but the service is - Sites are available for regular mobiles, touchscreen
proving relatively resilient so far, and performed well during the devices, and apps for everything from the iPhone to
recent Champions League games. Windows Mobile to Sidekick and Nokias.
- They have also benefitted from over 40m downloads of
Three have also launchedcxi a subscription video on demand
their java bookmark on GetJarcxv.
service with a range of programs available with pause, rewind and
- ½ of Facebook s 400m users have used mobile products
at some point
- SMS service available on 80 operators in 32 countries
- Mobile users are twice as engaged as web users, with
Social Networks double the page-views, interactions, consumptions and
The rate of growth of the social networks through mobile channels Future Strategy
has been astonishing through 2009. Facebook s strategy is to be integrated into the core device
operating systemcxvi, rather than to sit on the device superficially
Of these, according to Morgan Stanleycxii, Facebook has already
as an app or mobile web site. Their belief is that should operators
become the primary way for millions of people to stay connected
and OEMs make this step, it can become a compelling
and Facebook s lead is likely to be extended as more consumers
differentiator over user handset choice. By doing so Facebook are
use increasingly powerful mobile devices, and the
61 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
hinting at the possibility of Facebook- Location-based Communities
flavoured handsets, with in-built OS-driven A growing trend among consumers is a mash-up of social
modules for contacts, status, location and interaction, UGC creation, and location called the Location-Based
more. Community. The principle players in this space are likely to be the
newly announced Google Buzzcxviii, and Foursquare. This section
An example of a half-way version of this that will illustrate Foursquare in some detail to outline how these
illustrates how Facebook want to embed their communities are beginning to work.
service, is the current version of Facebook for
iPhone, which syncs Facebook profiles and Foursquare
pictures directly into the iPhone (and Outlook) Billed as helping you find new ways to explore your city, meet up
contacts. with your friends and let you earn points and unlock badges for
discovering new places, doing new things and meeting new
Another development is the new Facebook Zerocxvii, a text-only people , Foursquare is essentially a mobile social network and
version of Facebook Mobile. The aim of the service is to enable casual game, that revolves around the tagging and enhancing of
operators to offer a version of Facebook without having to charge the real world by its members.
for data; also this data is heavier and increases the weight of on
the network. While this is a commercial play from Facebook to
embed their services deeper into the MNO s D2C offering, it will if
promoted by the operators have the by-product of increasing
Facebook Mobile traffic (and hence mobile web traffic generally)
in younger more cash-strapped demographics who are familiar
with social networking but don t want to pay the data charge
normally associated with it.
With its huge and massively-growing global audience, and the
addictive nature of its service, Facebook should be seen
alongside Google as one of the major engagement channels for
mobile consumers over the next 5 years, and any content and
service offered through the mobile channel should be scoped with
a view to how it can be serviced, marketed, or otherwise
propagated through the Facebook mobile channel.
62 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Users begin by signing up to the service, and whoever the current Mayor is. However, more
can then invite any of their Facebook or embedded campaigns are emerging, such as
Twitter contacts to be their friends on the one illustrated for Kaffeine, which
Foursquare. From this point, the user can capitalises on users checking into sites in the
see where their friends are and what they vicinity of Kaffeine, and serves them a full-
are doing, both in the form of active updates, page promotion of their offer dynamically.
such as iPhone notifications and on their
mobile app. Also Foursquare is now promoting brand
personas through the service. In the US these
As they go about their daily business, they include Marc Jacobs, New York Times, Zagat,
then check-in to venues, which are anything and Bravo TV, while in the UK Debenhams
from bars and cafes through to offices, public and Dominos Pizza are attempting to use
sites, trains and more. As users check-in, and create new sites, if Foursquare as a customer retention tool eg
a venue doesn t already exist in Foursquare, they earn points by offering free coffee for anyone checking in
which can contribute towards badges. If a user has visited a on a Friday.
venue more than any other user, they are then designated Mayor
of that venue, until such time as another user ousts them. Future for Foursquare
Although Foursquare has somewhere over 300,000 users
Users are encouraged to make comments about sites they visit currentlycxix, its challenges lie in expanding beyond its current
which are then shared with future über-early-adopter usage into a channel with some scale, and in
visitors, and are shouted out to any turning into an effective advertising channel without becoming a
other users in the immediate vicinity. generic option for dispersing special offers, which would take
Also the user can post their check-ins, away the shine it currently has for its user base.
Mayor-ships etc to Facebook and
Twitter. Facebook s growth into the location sector, as expected to be
announced at its F8 conference in April 2010cxx, will see
A range of options are available for Foursquare APIs integrated more deeply into the Facebook
advertisers who wish to capture the service, promoting a localised element to many more social
Foursquare demographic. Relatively interactions, and recruiting a mass market user base to the idea of
informal campaigns can be run, such as local networking.
local bars offering a free drink to
63 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
The growth curve, and the fact that Google Buzz is launching into Growth of mobile payment
the same space, gives the feeling that the Location-Based Along with many of the other functions of the new mobile
Community is going to be a good space to place and advertise landscape, payment is viewed as a channel with huge growth
products and services for the next couple of years. potentialcxxiii
What do we mean by mobile payment?
Mobile payment is the effecting of real currency transactions
through the mobile device.
Although the really big steps in adoption of this technology are
being made in the developing world, in countries such as Kenya,
where 10% of the national GDP goes through the local SMS-
banking service m-Pesacxxi, mobile payment is a much-hyped and
expanding field in Western Europe as well, although with a
- Developing worldcxxii
Provide a primary channel for essential mobile commerce
between individuals, and to pay for goods and services.
Main customer are otherwise unbanked individuals
- Developed world
Provide an additional channel to interact with customers
for urgent transactions, provide a useful service access
layer with aim of retaining valuable bank customers
64 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Target demographic for mobile payment services Both techniques have significant disadvantages for merchants:
- There are large revenue shares taken by the network
operator, resulting in a low outpayment to the merchant,
who sits at the end of a long value chain. A typical
outpayment on a retail price of £1.50 might be around 90p,
making this a payment method of last resort to many
- Price points are fixed at intervals of 50p
- Top common price point is £10 (for PayForIt), although
some operators (O2 and Vodafone) are bringing in more
flexible price points, and raising the payment maximum to
- Separate commercial agreements and technical
connections need to be made for each country
Types of Mobile Payment
There are a number of types of mobile payment widely used and
emerging in the UK, and this section will analyse the status and
future of each in detail.
- Operator billing
- Mobile web and in-app billing
- NFC payment PSMS has historically been the primary vehicle for payment, with
- Online account triggering via mobile the routine being very familiar to consumers for the purchase of
mobile content, competition entries and votes, notably on
commercial TV channels, and for charity donations. While PSMS
remains widely used, its growth as a channel in the UK has
This refers to the widely used technique of extracting payment
reached a plateau, and many foresee operator billing as being on
from a consumer via their mobile network operator. This is
the decline as new and more merchant-friendly techniques are
currently done in the form of Premium SMS, or via the relatively
new cross-operator WAP-billing initiative PayForIt.
65 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
PayForIt billing, while it has been mandated However, fuelled by the improvement of devices, and the
for all operator billing on the mobile web, is increasing numbers of major retailers implementing mobile-
not hugely popular among merchants due to rendered versions of their sites, this
its difficult consumer experience, which situation is improving dramatically.
involves clicking out of the retail environment
into an accredited PayForIt page (illustrated) Example of mobile web billing
This example of an Amazon page shows a
Summary purchase about to be made through the
While operator billing remains the largest shopping basket. The credit card details
current channel for mobile payment in the have been remembered from a previous
UK, my belief is that both PSMS and transaction.
PayForIt channels will decline in volume over
the next two years due to: Example of in-app billing
Mobile applications can also be used to
- Better commercial terms available on rival channels facilitate credit and debit card billing. The
- Devices better equipped to handle credit card entry main player in this area is Apple, whose
- Merchants making online payment available through app store has the largest reach. Up until
mobile/online account syncing February 2010, Apple barred developers from building apps which
utilised credit card billing, instead insisting on using the iTunes
billing account to make any charges, with 30% of revenues going
Mobile web and in-app billing to Applecxxv.
The secure billing of credit cards over the mobile web has been However, although no official announcement has been made on
possible since the MIDP2 standard became widely adopted on the subject, apps are now entering the app store that feature full
devices in the middle of the last decade, and mobile commerce credit card billing, such as the Wagamama example shown here.
innovators such as MPP Globalcxxiv have been running such
services for some time.
However, the tedious experience of entering credit card details
through traditional feature phones was such that even network
operators declined to implement it on their portals, and such
services only ever achieved marginal adoption.
66 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
An example of a mobile payment terminal is the Barclaycard
iPhone terminal, to be released in 2010/11. The merchant enters
their iPhone into the device, which connects through the iPhone
data port, and an on board app connects with the card reader, and
transmits information over the air to complete the transaction
through Barclaycard s core billing system.
Mobile Apps and the Mobile
Internet are two of the primary
growth areas for the next
generation of mobile users, so to
integrate billing mechanics into
Although iPhone is the main vehicle for
them is an obvious and necessary
apps currently (see previous sections on
step where payment is required.
OS and smartphones), credit card
payment can be run equally from any
other app platform. The Red Cross in the
US is currently running applications NFC Payment
across Android, Windows Mobile and NFC will constitute one of the most significant payment channels
Blackberry to raise funds for the Haiti on mobile over the next 5 years, with Visa investing up to 200m
disaster.cxxvi in the technologycxxvii. See section on NFC payment within
Developments in Smartphone Function.
Mobile Payment Terminals for Small Business
A new development is the launch of mobile payment terminals.
Aimed at small businesses and sole traders, the aim of these
Online Account Triggering via mobile
devices is to turn the user s mobile phone into a payment terminal
The final mobile payment technique is the use of a mobile trigger,
so that they can accept credit card payment quickly and easily,
typically an SMS, to cause a payment to be made from a
thus ensuring rapid and reliable payment, and negating the need
registered credit or debit card.
to send out paper invoices.
Existing services include:
67 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
- National Lottery Channel usage
- London Congestion Charge Here are some statistics relating to the current channel utilisation
- Various car parking servicescxxviii in the UK, as reported by ComScore M:metrics, Jan 2010.
Usage of some mobile channels
As public services continue to move towards electronic billing,
having this form of mobile payment should be considered to offer
consumers choice. The Congestion Charge scheme has been a
particularly strong case study, with 23% of total payments arriving
Analysis of Channels by age
(eg. Of mobile social network users, ~25% are 18-24)
68 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
This section contains a brief look at the development of the mobile
The evolution of mobile content might be generalised as having
content arena, in terms of the type of content that is being
come in three waves:
developed and consumed on mobile devices, the strategies being
implemented by leading content owners, and how this content is - Downloadables
to be discovered and monetised by both consumer charging and When the primary usage of the mobile data connection for mass-
advertising. market consumers was the purchase of ringtones and logos
The period when the network operators held 85%+ of the UK s
mobile internet traffic and grew content-rich on-deck portals with
licensed content from third parties
- Open Access
Content creators have taken control over their own destiny in the
mobile space and created a raft of own-brand products and
services to deliver their content in the form they feel is most
attractive or profitable
This section will aim to illustrate the principles of the third wave of
mobile content, into which we are now heading, by looking at two
case studies, the Guardian and Sky, and taking from them the
essence of their success and how they are planning to build into
the mobile future.
Although the Guardian was not the earliest mover in the
newspaper sector, it has certainly been one of the most
successful and strategically focused in deploying its products and
triggering consumer uptake.
69 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Products up to 2010 iPhone app
Launched Downloads Price point Distribution
Mobile sitecxxx th
Dec 15 2009 102,000 £2.39, no All UK
Monthly Monthly subscription
March 2009 1.2m 9.5m 65% UK
12% US The iPhone app was launched to provide readers with a premium
experience, that they believed was worth paying for, that couldn t
be served elsewhere on the digital portfolio. iPhone users sit at
The m.guardian.co.uk site was launched to enable the growing
the very top end of the Guardian user base, and the business
number of readers attempting to access its online site to access
belief is that these power-users should be
the content through a reasonable user interface for the mobile
device. This growth was led by iPhone users, who, like most other
mobile users, were not able to deal with the online site s large The success of the app in engaging users
screen size and heavy flash content. has been such that 50% of users open the
app daily. iPhone requests now represent
The site pulls content from the Guardian s
5% of the entire daily digital consumption,
core CMS, removes elements that are
with longer sessions and more engagement
unsuitable for mobile browsers, and
than any other platform. Plus these figures
serves it in a simple format that does not
do not include use of the app in offline mode,
require significant downloads of data per
so are likely to be even higher.
Working with Apple
The Guardian are continuing to invest in
The Guardian received notable support from Apple during the
the mobile site and view it as being
promotion of the application. There are a number of ways to
particularly strong for live events, and
accelerate this relationship, which help to facilitate the goal of an
rapidly developing stories such as the
iTunes App Store promotion:
- Demonstrate that you are bringing a quality brand AND a
The site is monetised by advertising sold by mobile specialist 4th
best-in-class service to the platform that will be of real
Screen Advertising. As premium inventory with a high-end
benefit to iPhone users
demographic, the space is sold on a high CPM rate. There are
- Work closely with the Developer Partner Relations team
also Google AdWords and sponsored text links on the site.
70 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
- Illustrate a roadmap of product development and a real Syndication techniques
engagement with the channel The Guardian s open platform architecture allows them to deploy
content to multiple mobile platforms with relative ease.
The Guardian has a small number of SMS alerts services,
although these are not seen as part of the strategic plan for
mobile moving forwards, the view being that it is just as easy to
log on to the mobile site or app to find out detailed information.
Urgent news is more likely to find the user through TV, Twitter or
the desktop browser.
The Guardian believe that anyone positioning themselves for the
future should be concentrating on the smartphone market, even in
lower demographics and less developed countries it is simply a
matter of when rather than if the smart devices reach these users.
Two main developments are foreseeable in the near future:
With 120 Android devices believed to be in line for release in
2010, this will be the next mass-market consumer apps platform, As mobile platforms generally tend to accept API standards such
and will match iPhone for reach in a year s time. Two Android as XML/RSS etc, the deployment of a new app, site or OS
devices, the G1 and the HTC Magic, are already in the Guardian integration generally only required work on the front end,
mobile site s top 5 browsing devices minimising cost and delay on the data back end.
Unlike a number of American newspaperscxxxi, the Guardian This syndication approach is critical to any content or service
have no issues with Apple s billing model. The iPad should bring provider wanting to deploy to the mobile channel, as with an open
about a huge market for browsing on the sofa, along with a
data architecture, many device readers are possible on the
revolution in digital user interface and desktop design. Their
approach is likely to be another app version for iPad and a new
version of the web/mobile site for the browser
71 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Sky However, the growth of usage of the mobile internet is not
Sky see mobile as a core part of their integrated ad offering and necessarily benefitting the operators content offering in the same
are developing platforms around their content accordingly. News, way as the off-deck sector has grown. A key development in this
in particular, is viewed as having the potential area is the iPhone, which instinctively encourages users to go off-
to one day surpass online usagecxxxii. deck. O2 released the iPhone without a content offering fit for the
device, so because iPhone is 10% of their base, that has had a
Sky s offering consists of news and sports predictable reflection on on-portal traffic and revenues.
content fed across the mobile web and
iPhone apps in a variety of formats. What is Mobile content providers who have seen revenues from the
notable about Sky s content and media platform fall by as much as 40% year-on-year are focusing their
offering is the extreme peakiness of the efforts on iPhone and Android, or seeking slicker international
traffic. For example, the iPhone app alone distribution through the independent platform-agnostic app stores.
can deliver in excess of a million users on a
Saturday, which by the author s estimate Mainstream media owners are busily creating their own content
makes it by itself the biggest mobile platform offerings based on the mobile internet or
in the UK on that day. applications for various platforms. While the
operators talk brightly of the future of their
portals, other commentators liken the situation
to the final days of the first-generation web
The operator as content provider portals such as Compuserve and AOL, when
Until the recent market developments users discovered that sites existed outside of
around the iPhone, smartphones, social those walled gardens.
networks and Google, the UK networks
have been the dominant players in the This is not to say that the operator portals are
mobile content space. Holding large and dying out; this is clear from the statistics in the
profitable content portfolios of ringtones, following section on mobile advertising.
graphics, video and games available for However, their focus is shifting away from
premium download, they have been the content sales, and the assumption that they
first point of call for access to syndicated will be the first and only point in the user s
news and sports. mobile journey, towards a gateway approach.
This is where the portal operates as a front-
72 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
end to media partner deals, and as a generator for advertising The next chart shows the channels that are being used to
inventory for products like O2 More. To survive in the new consume mobile content in the UK (figures are the % of mobile
marketplace, the portals will have to adapt and add value to the content consumers who use each channel)
user s browsing experience.
An example of this kind of next-generation operator portal is
Orange s iPhone version of Orange World, (pictured) which
concentrates on promoting iTunes apps, presumably through an
affiliate deal, and promoting loyalty and utility services like WiFi
finder and Orange Wednesdays.
The following chart shows the % of UK mobile owners who
engage in the following main content categories over mobile web,
SMS or in-app.
As one of the youngest branches in the advertising tree, which
only really began in 2007, mobile advertising has thus far been in
a state of constant upheaval. Developments in 2009-2010 have
continued at an alarming pace. However, with some consolidation
of the major players and techniques in the industry, we are now
able to see how the mobile advertising might be structured in the
long term. Most in the media industry are confident of massive
increases in the spend on mobile over the next 2 years, as
investment catches up with the scale of consumer usage.
73 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Mobile advertising so far... race is developing between ad networks and media owners to
The two key tipping points in the development of the mobile deliver them.
advertising landscape so far have been:
Ad formats likely to emerge strongly over the next two years
- July 2008 the release of the iPhone 3G triggered a huge include:
rise in the usage of the mobile internet and mobile
banner banner expands when touched to fill the entire
- 2009 Google and Apple made bold moves into the page on a smartphone. Expanables can be used in
mobile advertising space through their purchases of apps or in mobile web pages. They can bear
AdMob and Quattro respectively. These acquisitions embedded video, or click through to a phone call,
demonstrated to brands and media buying agencies that mobile web site etc
Flash banners A growing number of handsets an already support
mobile was now a serious channel that warranted flash banners, including the Nokia 5800, but they
investment. Search is viewed by many players as the are not yet being delivered by any major ad
dominant force on mobile advertising of the future network. Flash banners can support integration
with some onboard features such as the
The final quarter of 2009 has been reported by a number of accelerometer or vibrate function
Feed integration Banners can be dynamically fed with content. This
players in the field as the best ever for mobile advertising, with
is starting to be used in the gambling sector for
some stating that the numbers for the period are double any other rapidly changing odds, but could also be used for
quarter of 2009. While this can be partly attributed to spend Flu Alerts or anything else where a simple but
across the board recovering from the recession, it also reflects often-changing message needs immediate impact
Location The use of location-sensitive information within a
unprecedented usage of mobile by consumers.
banner, or the serving of an ad based on the
user s location
The pricing structure of mobile advertising deals has cemented Image recognition Contextual advertising next to visual and photo
from its early stages, where operators were charging up to £15 ads search results
CPM. Now premium operator inventory can generally be had for Sponsored apps Shazam is just one of many premium apps now
£6-8 CPM, with CPC on networks such as AdMob available from open to deep sponsorship opportunities
Ad formats Operators as media networks
Many advertisers are seeking more interesting and innovative ad Definitions of the terms:
formats to generate better engagement with users, and an arms
74 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
- On-deck Product Detail
Traffic on the UK operator portals: Vodafone Live/360, T-Zones, O2 O2 More SMS outbound contacts to profiled opt-in
users. Expect 1m customers to be opted-
Three Today, O2 Active, Virgin Bites and Orange World
in by end of 2010
- Off-deck O2 Active WAP portal. 4-5m unique users per
Any sites outside of the operator portals. Significant sites on month. Exposure to banners and text
mobile include the Microsoft mobile properties (Hotmail, IM etc), links, video pre-roll
Flirtomatic, Bebo Mobile etc Top-Up Surprises + Advertisers can provide prizes and
Priority rewards into these channels
iPhone Promotion SMS sent to ~2m iPhone users to
While the growth of the mobile internet overall in 2009 has been promote new apps
stellar, the growth has been most significant in the off-deck space, Orange Orange World WAP portal. ~3.5m unique users per
with search seeing a 260%cxxxiii growth from 2008 to 2009, fuelled month. Banners, text links and takeovers
Orange Shots Youth-focused SMS outbound contacts to
in large part by the iPhone, whose users perform 50 times more Monkey tariff customers. Reach as yet
searches than WAP users. unavailable
In-app advertising Full screen banners, expandables etc in
The mobile operator decks still provide huge reach at the moment, app network
Vodafone Voda Live WAP Portal 3.3mcxxxiv unique users.
with their millions of monthly viewers, but media agencies are Banners, homepage takeovers, video pre-
seeing on-deck display as a shrinking part of their mix, and there roll, sponsored search listings
is uncertainty over whether the online-originated display formats MMS mailouts Early stage development of MMS clubs
Tmobile T-Zones WAP Portal 1.55m users per month,
will continue to work. banners, homepage links and takeover
3 3 Today WAP portal 1.6m users per month.
While the networks ownership of the mobile internet space is Banners, icons, interstitials, nowlets
slipping away from the network operators, they have, for the time enhanced homepage icons, sponsored
being at least, a significant part to play in the enabling of brands
and government services and messages to reach consumers.
In addition to the current offering, developments of the operator
The core asset held by the network operators is customer data: product over the next year or so are likely to include further use of
the MNO holds all manner of data on their customers from their location, mobile apps, ad-funded operator services and picture
address, their bank, contract status, browsing habits, handset type
and inferred status, content preferences and much more. While it
has taken the operators a number of years to lay the foundations The operators focus in terms of using customer data is to supply
for this effort, 2010 is seeing them enter the market in earnest. advertising that has real value to their customers, so it is in their
The following is a summary of their offering as of early 2010: own interest to sign up to receive it. Media agency reaction to the
75 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
operators new approach is favourablecxxxv, because operator data
was previously underutilised, and the qualification of leads that it
enables of great value to the advertiser. The model is built over
the success that the ad-funded MVNO Blyk was able to deliver in
terms of customer engagement for advertisers, through effective
targeting of niche youth markets.
While these efforts are as yet in their early stages, the operators
are investing significant resources in their success, and are
delivering some positive results. Should the operators continue to
grow their opt-in bases, enhance the targeting available, and
prevent users from becoming tired of receiving ads and offers, this
could be a reliable and effective way of targeting mobile users.
O2 More Case Study
Fitness First had trouble recruiting new members through the
difficult financial climate of 2009. A campaign was planned by O2
Media to target potential recruits on the O2 network and offer a
free 5-day pass to their nearest branch.
Targeting was done based on location those
who live near a gym, and those who had
expressed interest in wellbeing and sport. The
users then received a text offering the 5-day
trial to which they replied with their postcode
to receive the details of their nearest branch.
The campaign generated a response of 6.8%,
resulting in more than 700 new members for
76 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
PORTRAITS FROM THE MOBILE WORLD OF 2013
Kat is 16 and is just starting her A-level studies. While older
brother Dan has left home, leaving her with just mum Bernadette,
she has the typical frenetic social life of a teenager which keeps
her constantly in touch with friends and classmates.
Buying her phone was a massive decision, as whatever she
chose, she knew she would be stuck with it for a whole year,
which is a long time at this age.
Eventually she went for the Nokia 5950. It was a choice between
this and the Blackberry, but now all the chat services are receives pictures, Facebook links and comedy animations over
connected she (or rather her mum) picked the cheaper one, it was her IM client.
£49.99. She s connected via an Orange Anything Anytime Sometimes she will receive a text, but these are mainly from
contract, which gives you free data up to 1GB per month, which national brands, she has signed up to, or shops in town sending
she never gets near. Calls are quite expensive once she gets her special offers, which she scans through briefly. She will have
above her allowance, but she doesn t make that many. to remember which offers are good at the weekend.
It s a phone which has been around a while, but a number of her She s on the mobile web a lot, although she doesn t often need to
friends have it, so she knows it will do what she wants. As soon as punch in a URL. She is usually prompted by links sent from her
she got it, she made sure to install her MSN, email, and Bebo friends, and has homepage bookmarks or apps for her regular
accounts, and synced up her friends. She also put in passwords browsing sites Facebook, Hotmail and a few other communities,
for her home, school, and town centre WiFi networks. and uses Google for anything else she needs. She s not a mobile
Her mobile life gamer, but sometimes is caught up in web-games that she plays
Kat is glued to her mobile. She is frequently woken on schooldays with her friends mostly on her mobile
by a clutter of chat requests via IM, which continue sporadically on Music is a big focus, and she is registered with a number of free
the bus until they arrive at school. Although she does not yet have streaming services which enable her to listen to anything anytime,
one of the 4G handsets, as 4G is not yet in her town, she still rather than storing thousands of songs on her hard disc.
77 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Dan is ten years older than Kat, and left for a job in London
straight from university. He flat-shares with three others the same
age, and works as an account manager at an IT firm. Although
he s only been there three years, it s probably time to be moving
up to a new role. Dan is rarely home, and with little responsibility
and a decent income, spends most of his time and money
socialising and going on trips.
Dan likes to think that he knows about phones, and carries
considerable kudos at work for always having the latest device.
this as his desktop sites are generally not that relevant when out
Currently this is the Google Nexus 4, which he spends some time
configuring to his requirements, but is happy to do so. Dan used
to have the iPhone 4G, but now just uses that permanently The phone is of course a 4G device, which was one of the main
connected to the stereo as a music player for both owned and reasons he bought it, and this enables him to watch all sorts of TV
streamed content. Dan is on an unlimited data plan, like everyone services such as iPlayer 4G, Sky, and movies from LoveFilm to
else he knows. Why would you have restrictions when it s on all which he has a subscription.
His Nexus has a built-in NFC chip, and he has persuaded the IT
His Mobile Life guys at work to enable it as his office pass. He also uses it to pay
Dan s Nexus is a complete social tool and expression of who he for his lunch in EAT, to pass his contacts to the few people he
is. An inveterate user of social networks for connecting with both meets with similar devices, and as his season ticket pass at
mates and girls, he was delighted when Facebook acquired Premiership leaders Watford. Dan likes swiping his phone and is
Foursquare, as now there will be loads more people on the always on the lookout for more services that offer him this.
service. He has his social networks set up to alert him when his
friends are nearby, often leading to impromptu meet-ups, not to Dan uses his phone a lot for work as well, particularly for expense
mention distracting him from his work. tracking the Nexus has an intelligent receipt scanner that enters
all details from a printed receipt into the system and creates a
Dan uses a mobile browser plug-in from Google to sync his spreadsheet on his PC at home.
desktop bookmarks with his mobile, but is thinking about ending
78 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Housewife even sometimes use the mobile in
Bernadette is 55 has brought up Dan and Kat in a well-to-do area the garden even though she could
outside Cannock. She struggles to keep up with the changes to go inside to talk on the landline.
mobile phone, but has a willing helper in Kat as well as occasional
Although she understands the
visits from Dan, though he often does more to confuse her than
mobile internet, and other services,
she is not a heavy mobile user.
Newly retired, she devotes much of her time to her hobbies and However, she is experimenting with
has a new-found energy. These include finally doing something using the BBC Mobile site while
about the garden, contributing to a community newspaper and waiting for buses, after
taking dance classes encouragement from one of her
peers, and a reassurance from her
Her phone daughter that she could use it
In a strange reversal of roles, Bernadette has in the past without incurring charges.
benefitted from hand-me-down phones from her children.
However, due to an accident, she had to buy a new phone last She has a rarely used Facebook account on the web which,
time around, which she hopes will last a good few years this time. although she doesn t know it yet, will become much more used in
a few years when Dan s children arrive, and new videos and
She has a Nokia 5530, which was bought in conjunction with her pictures are posted daily. Kat will also set up her mobile to view
daughter. Kat described it as ancient but approved generally, as this Facebook content.
she is a Nokia user and knew she would be able to teach her
mum how to use it. Bernadette does not do much texting, but has got into the habit of
using it for arranging meetings, so will frequently notify friends and
She has a Talkalot Pay Monthly tariff from O2 that allows her 600 family by text if she is running late. She also frequently texts in to
free minutes per month. TV-based competitions and charity donations.
Her mobile life
Bernadette s mobile life still revolves around voice and text. She
makes many appointments to see her local friends, and still
irritates her children by calling instead of emailing or texting. She
is confident that she knows how much she is spending and will
79 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
CONCLUSIONS common, but it is not used enough in product decisions. All
The current levels of usage of the various forms of mobile decisions about what products to create should be
technology are already at a level where mobile should be influenced by a thorough understanding of the audience
considered as a part of every service that is put to the public. that they will find on the devices in question
4. Syndicate data
The mobile future that has been outlined in this document shows By creating an open and accessible data structure,
that the usage of mobile is going to be richer, more widespread, multiple front ends, from apps to mobile web to bot chat
more universal and more essential than ever before. engines, can be built over it, saving huge amounts of
effort, and reducing both go-to-market lead times and cost
A mobile strategy should be 5. Make mobile equal
Overall recommendations With devices now so powerful and capable, the idea of cut-
I have ten recommendations for that arise from writing this report: down service for mobile should be rejected. Of course
mobile sites need to be delivered according to best
1. Start small get in early practice, but all the content a user expects online should
Virtually all new technology developments start with a also be delivered through mobile, and should be
small base of early adopters. Facebook, for example, had searchable as well
5m users in 2005, but now has over 400m. Examples of 6. Promote your services
technology in this report that may well hit significant growth Mobile advertising is very effective, so ensure that budget
include Android, Layar and mobile social networking. By is set aside to publicise your services. For example, no
learning about platforms as they develop, it s possible to iPhone app should ever be created without supporting
master them before they hit mass-market and deploy best- media
in-class products 7. Know the landscape
2. Iterate Many players in the new mobile content landscape are
Deployment to many platforms is cheap and quick. For hungry for premium brands to supply content for their
example, an execution of the NHS data to Layar can be handsets or app stores. Take an open approach to
done in a couple of weeks. Once live, user behaviour and personnel from handsets, networks and OS, and you will
the success of promotions and conversion can be be rewarded with promotion and placement in devices and
monitored and the product enhanced. Have a roadmap for media channels. Staying up to date with new
product deployment developments, and the progress of those highlighted in
3. Use devices for targeting this report is essential, and this report should be compiled
The use of handset targeting in mobile advertising is annually to do so
80 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
8. Don t forget messaging - Utilities
SMS and MMS volumes are still growing, and SMS is now What useful tools can we put in the hands of our target
so much more powerful as it can be used to link to the audience that will help them navigate the business, health
mobile web and much richer content and citizen service infrastructure in the UK?
9. Keep up with devices - Engagement
Smartphones are no longer niche, minority, or top-end. All What compelling experiences can we create through
mobile services should be geared towards a premium mobile to get home our message, and make our services
experience on top-end devices, as before long the majority front-of-mind and approachable?
of the market will be using them - Service
10. Experiment How can real transactions be made through mobile
While it is possible to be fairly confident about which channels, and how can they be made easier and quicker?
market developments have a big future, a completely risk-
averse approach to mobile will result in a torpid product The deployment strategy decisions are based on:
delivery cycle which will deliver little to the public. Put out - Experience
light products quickly to multiple channels and follow up on What is the end-to-end experience going to be for the
the ones that work user? How can we make this both compelling and useful?
What devices, channels and tools are relevant to our
Some ideas for e-Government demographic?
With objectives as important and as long-term as the - Promotion
Government s, it s critical to take a strategic approach. Thus the How can we ensure what we create finds the target users
technology roadmap as defined in this document should go who need it?
towards three separate, but aligned, mobile strategies for
Directgov, NHS Choices and Business Link. All mobile products So bearing these in mind, some initial ideas for e-government
released by any of the three departments should ideally be used might be:
to promote those run by the others Citizen
While not wanting to pre-empt this work, the key comms Clearly there are plenty of avenues for the Directgov data to grow
objectives are likely to be: from its current mobile web incarnation across the new mobile
formats available. A series of general Directgov apps across a
range of OS would complement the mobile web site, and drive
81 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
further mobile traffic to it. A general app would be aimed at all - An NHS Healthy Living offering might comprise a rich set of
users and act as their on-handset gateway to e-government, billed content enabling users to enjoy taking the healthy option, and to
as everything you need in one app . In addition a range of get ideas, support, and community out of it. This would be an
specialist apps for certain demographics with themed messaging ongoing scheme with a high level of personalisation so that
users are constantly engaged with new ideas
would be useful. For example:
Incorporating many inputs from social media, particularly the
- There is a whole stream of youth-focused information that would pushing of local social content, which was lacking in
help teenagers access public services more intuitively. An app Change4Life, users will be able to reach out to other users in
that presents this info in a way acceptable to this demographic, their area and share both tips and local events such as jogging
and covering anything from drugs to bullying to diplomas would routes etc
make sense. Within the app it would use mechanics such as
chat-bots to ask questions, links to social sites for support, and
mapping to find services near them The regulatory and taxation aspects of opening a new business
The app would be deployed to Samsung, Nokia and iPod Touch, are a challenge to the most intrepid entrepreneur, so pushing the
and would be promoted through a range of teen media, but also wealth of information held by Business Link and making it more
in partnership with Ovi Store and Bada on the handsets that they accessible is critical. While it goes without saying that Business
are releasing directly to the youth market Link must bring their entire website on to mobile, there are other
mechanics that might be used to help small businesses, eg:
With health of interest to absolutely everyone, but all sections of - Most help is needed when a new business is set up.
the community having very different needs and interests, mobile Business Link might acquire the contacts for all new
would be ideal for a comprehensive push-messaging program directors registered at Companies House, and enrol them
based on tightly defined segmentation of the public, and run to the service. This would comprise:
through all mobile and digital channels, from a simple SMS to o Push of SMS to which they can reply YES for free
advanced app mechanics. updates, eg tax declaration deadlines etc, throughout
the business year
The aim of the scheme would be to engage all users with public o App promoted in mail-outs and SMS. The app would
health messages relevant to them, so a huge data collection embed key business year dates in their calendar, key
exercise would be required to recruit them. However, once contacts (eg VAT Office etc) in their phone book, as well
enrolled, a series of targeted initiatives would be launched to as carrying intuitive navigation for all the Business link
segments within the base, for example: data, that is constantly updated
o Promotion of the mobile internet site and
encouragement to bookmark it
82 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Interview Debbie O Sullivan, Senior Industry Manager, Government and Public Sector,
Many friends from mobile both old and new have assisted with the Google March 2010
Juniper Whitepaper, Smartphone, Smart Revenues
creation of this paper. In particular Dr Mike Short, Vice President xxiv
IT Pro - http://www.itpro.co.uk/620557/mwc-2010-lg-mini-brings-syncing-to-feature-
Telefonica Europe and Honorary President of the MDA, was phones - Feb 2010
The Register - http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/03/05/microsoft_pink/ - March 2010
crucial in informing and correcting many of the assumptions I held xxvi
Engadget - http://www.engadget.com/2010/03/06/firstviews-95-android-windows-ce-
at the beginning of this process. Also, Oded Ran of Microsoft was pc607v-tips-a-craptablet-ic/ - Mar 2010
YouTube Why you shouldn t buy an iPad in 30 seconds -
very generous with his time and opinion. Finally, Jo Garcia of the http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bvr82OigsZM
DMA Mobile Council gave freely of her time in proofreading my Interview Steve Wing, The Guardian Feb 2010
BrandRepublic - http://www.brandrepublic.com/Global/News/987130/CondE-Nast-
copy, apparently with a fine-tooth comb. prepares-put-its-top-magazines-Apples-iPad/?DCMP=EMC-GlobalBulletin Mar 2010
AdMob Mobile Metrics Jan 2010
Strategy Analytics -
Fone Home - http://www.fonehome.co.uk/2010/01/22/vodafone-breaks-100k-iphone-
mark/ - Jan 2010
Daily Mail - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1239182/How-women-love-mobile- Guardian - http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/feb/16/vodafone-warns-google-
phones--boyfriends.html - Dec 2009 power - Feb 2010
NCH Mobile Bullying Report - 2005 Pocket Lint - http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/27936/acer-liquid-a1-android-photos -
Cellular News - http://www.cellular-news.com/story/30918.php - May 2008 Oct 2009
OFCOM 3G Coverage Maps July 2009 Phandroid - http://phandroid.com/2009/11/23/htc-droid-eris-only-30-at-wal-mart/ - Nov
Morgan Stanley The Mobile Internet Report Dec 2009 2009
WebUser - http://www.webuser.co.uk/news/top-stories/384725/o2-fixes-mobile-network- PC World -
outage - Jul 2009 http://www.pcworld.com/article/182310/droid_sales_and_the_android_explosion.html - Nov
Mobile Europe Issue 208 Feb/Mar 2010 2009
Interview - Andy Conway, Radio Networks Manager, O2 UK Feb 2010 MobileCrunch - http://www.mobilecrunch.com/2010/02/16/google-now-shipping-60000-
Interview Steve Nicholson, CEO, The Cloud March 2010 android-handsets-per-day/ - Feb 2010
ZDNet - http://news.zdnet.co.uk/communications/0,1000000085,39689360,00.htm July Interview Barney Durrant, Google Feb 2010
2009 Mobile Entertainment - http://www.mobile-ent.biz/news/33014/40-app-downloads-per-
Register Hardware - G1-customer - April 2009
http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2009/07/14/future_wireless_tech/page6.html - June 2009 Search Engine Watch - http://blog.searchenginewatch.com/090527-121934 - May 2009
European Communications - AdMob Mobile Metrics Jan 2010
http://www.eurocomms.com/online_press/113115/Mobile_WiMAX_Acceleration_Group_rel Which - http://www.which.co.uk/news/2009/01/lg-leapfrogs-motorola-in-mobile-phone-
eases_results_of_UK%E2%80%99s_first_end-to-end_live_trials.html July 2009 marketshare-167072.jsp - Jan 2009
Interview Anthony Douglas, Head of Content, O2 Mar 2010 Engadget - http://www.engadget.com/2009/03/11/nokia-continues-to-hemorrhage-
Phone Scoop - http://www.phonescoop.com/glossary/term.php?gid=310 smartphone-marketshare-to-rim-app/ - Mar 2009
Phone Scoop - http://www.phonescoop.com/glossary/term.php?gid=131 Musically - http://musically.com/blog/2009/10/15/comes-with-music-107k-users-
Interview Barney Durrant, Google Feb 2010 worldwide/ - Oct 2009
MEF - http://www.mobile-ent.biz/features/246/No-stopping-the-smartphone - Feb 2010 The Register - http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/10/27/see_keynote/ - Oct 2009
MEF - http://www.mobile-ent.biz/news/36154/Gartner-reveals-2009-handset-sales-stats ComScore Mar 2010
- Feb 2010 Interview Keith Varty Services Marketing, Nokia Mar 2010
MEF - http://www.mobile-ent.biz/features/246/No-stopping-the-smartphone - Feb 2010 Nokia Conversations - http://conversations.nokia.com/2010/01/26/nokia-x6-16gb-
ComScore MobiLens March 2010 launched/ - Jan 2010
Survey of O2 and Orange online shops March 2010 Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_Mobile - March 2010
83 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Computer World - TechCrunch - http://techcrunch.com/2010/03/16/facebook-qr-code/ - Mar 2010
Android Anarchy - http://www.androidanarchy.com/paid-applications.html - Mar 2010
nge_20_in_Q3 - Nov 2009 lxxviii
Cnet - http://news.cnet.com/8301-13860_3-10444432-56.html - Feb 2010
Engadget - http://www.engadget.com/2010/02/15/windows-phone-7-series-hands-on-and- lxxix
Tech Radar - http://www.techradar.com/news/internet/google-confirms-goggles-for-
impressions/ - Feb 2010 iphone-656489 - Dec 2009
Gizmodo - http://gizmodo.com/5472010/windows-phone-7-interface-microsoft-has- lxxx
Electronics Weekly -
out+appled-apple Feb 2010 http://www.electronicsweekly.com/Articles/2010/01/26/47877/android-handset-brings-
Interview Oded Ran, Head of Consumer Marketing, Windows Phone March 2010 augmented-reality-to-local-browsing.htm - Jan 2010
M:Metrics March 2010 lxxxi
Mashable - http://mashable.com/2010/02/15/layar-partnership/ - Feb 2010
Cnet - http://news.cnet.com/8301-30686_3-10417853-266.html - Dec 2009 lxxxii
ReadWrite - http://www.readwriteweb.com/start/2010/02/layar-app-store-ar.php - Feb
PC World - 2010
Text.it - http://www.text.it/mediacentre/sms_figures.cfm - March 2010
g.html - Nov 2008 lxxxiv
Sign-up.to - http://www.ncvo-vol.org.uk/emailstatistics - July 2009
Daily Telegraph - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/blackberry/6508898/BlackBerry- lxxxv
MDA - http://www.themda.org/case-studies/ocado-teams-up-with-esendex-to-deliver-
Bold-9700-review.html - Nov 2009 top-quality-service.php
Mobile Entertainment - http://www.mobile-ent.biz/features/245/Samsungs-big-Bada-bid - lxxxvi
148Apps - http://148apps.biz/app-store-metrics/ - Feb 2010
Feb 2010 lxxxvii
AdMob Mobile Metrics Jan 2010
Interview Nick Turner-Samuels, Head of Content, Samsung Mar 2010 lxxxviii
ComScore MobiLens Jan 2010
Total Telecom - http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?C=0&ID=452393 Jan 2010 lxxxix
Forrester Making iPhone Work in the Enterprise Apr 2009
Mobile Entertainment - http://ow.ly/1oGgME - Feb 2010 xc
AndroLib - http://www.androlib.com/appstats.aspx - Feb 2010
Mobile Marketing - http://www.mobilemarketingmagazine.co.uk/2010/03/orange-teams- xci
AndroLib - http://www.androlib.com/appstats.aspx - Feb 2010
up-with-intel.html - Mar 2010 xcii
YouTube - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SO0dM03iVSM Nov 2009
LiMo Foundation - http://www.limofoundation.org/ xciii
PC World -
PC World - http://www.pcworld.com/article/166704/the_best_and_worst_of_blackberry_app_world.html
http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/173355/motorola_no_longer_on_limo_found - June 2009
ation_board.html - Oct 2009 xciv
Revolution - http://www.brandrepublic.com/Discipline/Digital/News/909105/Reviewed -
FastCompany - http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/chris-dannen/techwatch/iphones- May 2009
swelling-achilles-heel - Mar 2009 xcv
Interview Keith Varty Services Marketing, Nokia Mar 2010
Pinch Media - http://www.slideshare.net/pinchmedia/iphone-appstore-secrets-pinch- xcvi
PC World -
media - 2008 http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/169904/apples_app_store_rejections_open
Juniper Whitepaper, LBS finds its way on the mobile - 2009 _the_door_for_competition.html - Aug 2009
Kleiner Perkins - http://vimeo.com/9863374 - Mar 2010 xcvii
Mobile Industry Review -
Silicon.com - http://www.silicon.com/management/cio-insights/2009/03/09/barclaycard- http://www.mobileindustryreview.com/2009/12/vodafone_360_-_an_absolute_failure.html -
orange-share-a-mobile-wallet-39405158/ March 2009 Dec 2009
Mobile Commerce Daily - http://www.mobilecommercedaily.com/gemalto-nokia-align-for- xcviii
Mobile Entertainment - http://www.mobile-ent.biz/news/36049/MWC-2010-Vodafone-
nfc-payments/ - Nov 2009 sells-300000-360-handsets - Feb 2010
NFC Forum - http://www.nfc- xcix
Interview Patrick Mork, VP Marketing, GetJar Feb 2010
forum.org/news/pr/view?item_key=48ffb07733e9347168ce648f131e71fab35fe453 Jan c
Bondi - http://bondi.omtp.org/default.aspx - March 2010
The Register - http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/02/16/bondi_competition/ - Feb 2010
Near Field Communications World - cii
Dive Into HTML5 - http://diveintohtml5.org/
Mobile Entertainment - http://ow.ly/1oRXl2 - Feb 2010
switch-to-nfc-compatible-transport-ticketing/ - Dec 09 civ
Google Mobile Advertising 2010
Silicon.com - http://www.silicon.com/technology/mobile/2008/09/02/five-year-wait-for- cv
Morgan Stanley The Mobile Internet Report Dec 2009
o2-oyster-card-mobiles-39283172/ - Sep 2008 cvi
Microsoft Advertising - http://www.bigmouthmedia.com/live/articles/young-men-most-
NFC News - http://www.nfcnews.com/2009/11/17/gemalto-sncf-demo-nfc-transit-app - closely-attached-to-the-net.asp/6780/ - Feb 2010
Nov 2009 cvii
Orange Exposure March 2009
Youtube QR code demo March 2008
84 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Computing - http://www.computing.co.uk/computing/news/2257961/mobile-search- M Metrics Feb 2009
predicted - Mar 2010 Interview Alex Newman, Head of Mobile, OMD Mar 2010
Viral Avatar - http://www.viralavatar.com/bot-marketing-and-a-transformer-on-your-
messenger/ - July 2007
Guardian - http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2007/jan/17/news.media - Jan 2007
European Communications -
Morgan Stanley The Mobile Internet Report Dec 2009
Chamath Palihapitaya, Facebook, MWC Barcelona, Feb 2010
CSS Insight report on mobile usage - 2009
GetJar - http://www.getjar.com/mobile/15801/facebook-mobile/ - March 2010
Chamath Palihapitaya, Facebook, MWC Barcelona, Feb 2010
Inside Facebook - http://www.insidefacebook.com/2010/02/16/facebooks-zero-a-
forthcoming-lightweight-mobile-web-site/ - Feb 2010
Google Mobile blog - http://googlemobile.blogspot.com/2010/02/introducing-google-
buzz-for-mobile-see.html - Feb 2010
Business Insider - http://www.businessinsider.com/foursquare-plots-its-business-model-
2010-2 - Feb 2010
TechCrunch - http://techcrunch.com/2010/03/09/facebook-location-features/ - Mar 2010
Strategy Analytics -
Edgar Dunn & Co - http://www.edgardunn.com/pointsofview/presentation.cfm - June
Edgar Dunn & Co - http://www.edgardunn.com/pointsofview/presentation.cfm - June
MPP Global - http://www.mppglobal.com/iShopMobile-mcommerce-mobile-phone-
shop/1-mcommerce-mobile-store.asp - March 2010
Apple - http://developer.apple.com/iphone/program/sdk/inapppurchase.html - June
Mobile Marketer - http://www.mobilemarketer.com/cms/news/content/5451.html - Feb
NFC World - http://www.nearfieldcommunicationsworld.com/2010/02/04/32639/visa-
Milton Keynes Borough Council -
http://www.miltonkeynes.gov.uk/mkparking/DisplayArticle.asp?ID=64532 March 2010
Road Traffic Technology - http://www.roadtraffic-technology.com/projects/congestion/ -
Interview Steve Wing and Jon Moore, The Guardian Feb 2010
Mac Observer -
evenue_sharing_customer_info/ - Feb 2010
Interview Tim Hussain, Head of Mobile Advertising, Sky Mar 2010
Google Feb 2009
85 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010