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					The Future
of
Mobile
Technology
                 Insight into the technology roadmap
                       for the years 2010-2013



             1            Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Contents                                                                                                              Mobile Apps and App Stores ........................................................ 46
INTRODUCTION ................................................................................... 3                    Web Apps .................................................................................... 54
MOBILE EVOLUTION TO 2010 ............................................................. 4                              Mobile Web ................................................................................. 55
CONSUMER FREEDOM ....................................................................... 6                            IM ................................................................................................ 60
THE MOBILE FUTURE ......................................................................... 7                         Video and TV ............................................................................... 60
   Operator Networks............................................................................. 7                   Social Networks ........................................................................... 61
      2G networks .................................................................................. 7                Location-based Communities ....................................................... 62
      3G networks .................................................................................. 8                Payment ...................................................................................... 64
      4G networks .................................................................................. 9             Channel usage ................................................................................ 68
   Evolution of mobile WiFi .................................................................. 12               MOBILE MEDIA .................................................................................. 69
   WiMAX ............................................................................................ 12           Mobile Content ................................................................................ 69
   Pervasive networks.......................................................................... 13                    The Guardian............................................................................... 69
   Data Charging ................................................................................. 14                 Sky .............................................................................................. 72
   How are operators servicing business? ............................................ 15                           The operator as content provider ..................................................... 72
      Mobile Crediting to customer balance........................................... 15                              Content Analysis.......................................................................... 73
DEVICES + OPERATING SYSTEMS .................................................. 17                                  Mobile Advertising ........................................................................... 73
   Smartphone v Feature Phone .......................................................... 17                     PORTRAITS FROM THE MOBILE WORLD OF 2013 .......................... 77
   The growth of smartphones ............................................................. 18                      Youth............................................................................................... 77
   Convergence Devices...................................................................... 21                    Early Adopter................................................................................... 78
   The Mobile OS and Manufacturer Landscape .................................. 23                                  Housewife ....................................................................................... 79
   Developments in Smartphone function ............................................. 32                         CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................. 80
   Handset Segmentation .................................................................... 42                       Overall recommendations ............................................................ 80
MOBILE CHANNELS........................................................................... 43                         Some ideas for e-Government ..................................................... 81
      SMS ............................................................................................ 43       REFERENCES.................................................................................... 83
      MMS ............................................................................................ 46




                                                                                                            2                                     Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
INTRODUCTION                                                                process of forming such a mobile strategy. The latter, I contend, is
The development of the mobile sector since 2005 has been                    essential to any business/organization that aspires to render
astonishing. There was a time when the majority of users were               services to consumers over the next decade.
happy for their mobile device simply to make and receive voice
calls. The situation is very different now.

There is now a vast demand for next generation services, and the
market has fragmented hugely in terms of what consumers want,
and who is able to provide it for them.

Combined with the proliferation of online services taking on a
mobile persona, and the social networks being taken to the very
heart of our digital lives, the advancement of mobile has been one
of the key shifts in our digital landscape.

This new significance of the channel has introduced both a new
complexity and an accompanying need for a deeper
understanding of the direction the market is taking.

The objective of this paper is to provide supporting information for
a mobile channel program for the next two years. It is not
possible to capture every facet of mobile in so brief a report, of
                                                                            About the Author:
course, but I hope to outline a profile of the essential players, the
main access points for the end user, and the main tools that would          Tim Dunn is a mobile marketing veteran with 10 years experience in the
consequently be required for such an endeavour. At the forefront            field.
of my presentation is a delineation of a strategic approach that
                                                                            As well as being Head of Mobile Marketing at Mobile
can be deployed so that stakeholders can transmit their message
                                                                            Interactive Group, he is also Research Chair of the
to as many users as is feasible, and in a format that is most
                                                                            DMA Mobile Council, a well-known agency trainer,
convenient, compelling, and reassuring.                                     and speaker at mobile events and courses including
                                                                            ISP, MMA, AdTech, and IPA.
This paper is not intended to represent a mobile strategy
document but, instead, an outline of the elements entailed in the




                                                                        3                          Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
MOBILE EVOLUTION TO 2010                                                     with the rapid evolution of the mobile landscape, the reasons for
Since the first commercial release of the mobile phone in 1979,              this have changed profoundly.
the mobile landscape has developed, in just 30 years, from a
                                                                             Where previously users saw their mobile as a basic tool for texting
patchy and inconvenient voice service to a richly featured
                                                                             and calling, a simple extension of their landline phone, it now has
multimedia experience that has become core to the lives of huge
                                                                             a raft of uses that include and extend beyond those of the PC.
swathes of the world s population.

This development can be broadly defined into three phases.




                                                                             However, the arrival of faster data speeds triggered more fully
                                                                             featured phones, and an increase in the array of products and
                                                                             services taking advantage of them.




Consumer attitudes
The mobile device has for many years ranked as one of the
public s most treasured possessions in all sectors of societyi ii, but




                                                                         4                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
A significant driver for this is the personalisation agenda. Users
from the next generation of digital natives expect three key
qualities from the content and services in which they participate:

Many of these relatively new uses for the mobile phone will be
discussed at some length in this paper. It is the increasingly wide
variety of uses for the device among consumers that makes it
such a powerful and essential tool for the publishing of Public
Sector information, and the provision of Public Sector service.

Throughout the document, reference will be made to business
uses of the technology, where appropriate, although the business
sphere lags a long way behind consumers in terms of uptake and
market maturity.




                                                                      5   Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
CONSUMER FREEDOM                                                           Taking these as a given, this provided many challenges for the
The development of the modern digital landscape has revolved               existing mobile service structure:
around the user. What the user wants, they are generally able to
                                                                              -   Network Operators
discover, absorb, and utilise on the internet, making choices about
                                                                                  While operators have been used to holding the relationship
platforms, providers, and content based on ease of use,
                                                                                  with the mobile consumer almost exclusively, they are now
accessibility, and relevance.
                                                                                  not able to provide the content and diversity of services
This free-wheeling capability through the digital landscape has                   that consumers want.
thus defined three key characteristics of any requirement from                -   Handset Manufacturers (OEMs)
Digital Natives:                                                                  OEMs have not been able to create a telling user
                                                                                  experience via their devices and proprietary operating
   -   Choice                                                                     systems that brings richness of content to consumers.
       For any given service, there might be many providers, and              -   Content owners
       users are empowered to choose the right one for them at                    With no easy route to the customers, and the typical web
       any time                                                                   tools of bookmarking, search etc unavailable, content
   -   Access                                                                     owners found it hard to find and engage mobile consumers
       The user is comfortable in a range of digital and real-world
       situations for media consumption and service usage. If a
       service is not available in a format, location or platform in
       which they are comfortable, they will not choose it
   -   Independence
       Users do not want the usage of one service to be
       dependent on the selection of any other service. They
       want to be able to mix-and-match services and tools they
       use, without having to buy in to all products from one              The desire for something beyond the very basic services offered
       provider                                                            through this model have created the current more varied mobile
   -   Personalisation                                                     ecosystem of apps, browsing, search, mobile content and more.
       Mobile is often lauded as the most personal of devices,
       and users want the way it looks and interacts with them to
       reflect who they are as a person




                                                                       6                        Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
THE MOBILE FUTURE                                                       2G networks
                                                                        2 or 2.5G (GPRS) networks are now the standard for the UK, and
Operator Networks                                                       the vast majority of the population have GPRS enabled phones,
The technology, products and strategy of the mobile network             enabling the use of a wide variety of added value services.
operators have long defined the mobile experience of all users in
                                                                        The maximum data throughput over GPRS is maximum 32-40
the UK, and much of their work continues to do so, as their
                                                                        kbit/sec (as defined by the 3G standards) and can incur latency,
success at providing voice and data networks is critical to all
                                                                        and up until the introduction of 3G, this was one of the primary
mobile devices and channels.
                                                                        factors holding back the development of the mobile content and
However, operator revenues are under pressure, so decisions are         services market.
being made whether to make this up through diversifying into
                                                                        However, implementation of the GSM standard put in place some
other businesses, or to concentrate on core connectivity and risk
                                                                        key market fundamentals that we now accept universally without
becoming the much-maligned dumb pipe .
                                                                        question:
The operators derive incremental revenues from content, media
                                                                           -   The SMS standard now installed on every device
and services, and their battle to retain this in the face of
                                                                           -   The acceptance of TCP/IP-based services
competition from a commercial world waking up to the scale of
mobile consumption is one of the key developments in the current        This standardisation, and the interoperability between networks
mobile landscape.                                                       that it has afforded, have created a landscape that is significantly
                                                                        less fragmented than it might have been.

                                                                        The arrival of GPRS has allowed significant developments in
                                                                        mobile behaviour, including:

                                                                           -   The common usage of operator portals for news and
                                                                               sports updates
                                                                           -   The downloading of mobile content, initially ringtones and
                                                                               logos, then applications, video and music
                                                                           -   The use of mobile email, with early Blackberry devices
                                                                               serving users well even on slower pre-3G connections




                                                                    7                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Although some work has been done through the use of the EDGE,               The increased data rates have permitted, along with the rapid
(2.75G) technology to accelerate the data throughput of the                 development of the 2.5G content services, the launch of the
networks further, the primary focus of operators is to roll out and         following:
better service the 3G network.
                                                                               -   Streaming video (on most networks)
However, 2 and 2.5G networks will always form the backbone of                  -   Mobile social networks
coverage in the UK, and it is important to bear in mind that all UK            -   Early mobile TV services
devices in the future will follow a dual-mode model, where they                -   Video-calling
will connect to the best signal available, and fall back to 2G signal          -   Mapping and navigation services
if they are not within 3G coverage. In this way devices optimise
the experience their users have within the network.                         Although one of the conditions of the 3G licence is that operators
                                                                            must cover 80% of the UK s populationiii, the map of UK coverage
                                                                            differs substantially between operators, and regionally.iv These
                                                                            versions are the most recently published by OFCOM in summer of
3G networks                                                                 2009, although they change constantly as the networks improve
The 3G networks in the UK, which are based on UMTS                          their coverage. Also, as operators take a more open view on
technology, is the current widely supported standard for voice and          network sharing, some areas of coverage from one MNO can also
higher-speed data connections. These can reach speeds of up to              be accessed by customers of another.
14 MB/sec (where 3.5G/HSPA is available), although that
throughput is in practice rarely reached, as the signal degrades
with both the number of users connected to one mast
simultaneously, and the distance from the mast where the user is
positioned. The general maximum for 3G data throughput is 2
MB/sec. However, 3G networks are not standing still, and the
network operators are investing considerably in enabling 3.5G and
any other optimisations that can increase bandwidth.

One anecdote in this area is that although mobile TV was
launched over 3G some time ago, the only place a Vodafone user
can receive it in London is in the grounds of Southwark Cathedral
which has a Voda mast on top.




                                                                        8                        Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
So while the growth of 3G coverage accelerates, there are                around 1MB of data. Likewise users with feature phones average
significant gaps in the nationwide maps, which, with an eye on           only 5-10 MB of data usage per monthvii.
digital inclusion, raises the possibility of those who live in the
countryside not being able to access any services that are               Two devices have really blown the lid off the data networks:
designed with a 3G bearer in mind. There is also the strong
                                                                            -   The iPhone, whose users average 10-20 times the amount
possibility that services will not work for many in Wales and                   of data over the network
Scotland.                                                                   -   3G dongles for laptops, who use on average 1.5GB of data
                                                                                per month, ten times the usage of the average smartphone
                3G Penetration (Western Europe)
       100%                                                              The growth in data due to all these factors is clearly enormous,
                                                                         and with the rate of growth accelerating, the operators are
        80%
                                                                         reporting some phenomenal data consumption statistics: Orange
        60%                            Forecast                          reported a 4,125% rise in data consumption from dongles in the
        40%                                                              year to May 2009, and O2 reported a 18-fold rise in data usage in
                                                                         2009.
        20%
         0%                                                              It is therefore little surprise that the operators are working hard on
               2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014                   the next generation of technology to support the rising demand for
                                                                 v       rich-media interactions.

With the advancement of devices, a significant strain has been
placed on the 3G networks currently supported by the operators,
                                                                         4G networks
and there is much speculation, fuelled by a number of widely
publicisedvi failures in data networks across Europe, that all UK        Why 4G?
data networks are running at, or close to, capacity.                     Consumers are demanding an increasing array of high-bandwidth
                                                                         data services on the move, such as web browsing, email, and
The Blackberry fuelled the rise of data usage, but Blackberrys
                                                                         particularly the use of mobile broadband through PC-connected
have not historically encouraged users to download significant
                                                                         dongles. All of these services create a heavy load on the network
volumes of data, such as powerpoint presentations, due to the
                                                                         operator infrastructure, even in areas of strong 3G coverage. The
difficulty of interacting with them on the device. Therefore the
                                                                         standard UMTS and HSPA (3.5G) signals currently available
weight of 100 emails downloaded without attachments will use




                                                                     9                          Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
cannot be upgraded to create a step-change in service, therefore                    to release new dongles with 4G chipsets, rather than wait
a new set of technology standards is necessary.                                     for a new generation of handsets to be released
                                                                                -   Video services
What is 4G?                                                                         The high bandwidth will finally enable the usage of high-
4G is a shorthand term referring to the fourth generation of cellular               quality streaming and download of video products and
wireless standards. Although these standards are not globally                       services. The 4G systems will probably cause a rethink in
formalised, and many different technologies are being put forward                   the modes of serving video content
for commercial roll-out, it is generally agreed that 4G networks will           -   Mobile TV
be based on 3GPP Long Term Evolution or LTE for short. LTE                          Although Sky have an early-phase commercial release of
allows for data throughput at up to 100 Mbit/sec, which is more                     HDTV (see later section), 4G may enable a reliable IPTV
than 10 times the rate possible over an existing 3G network, even                   service to the mass market.
in ideal conditions. However, as with 3G networks, as the user                  -   Games
moves away from the transmitting mast, they will experience an                      The 4G network will enable instant multi-player games
exponential decrease in the downlink rates achieved.                                over wireless networks. This will possibly lead to a
Although 4G technology will fundamentally alter the way that voice                  significant development of the portable games console
and data signals are encoded and relayed to the network, the only                   (PSP, nGage etc) market, and in conjunction with players
real change to the consumer experience will be a greater array of                   such as Microsoft (see section below) could create a mass
products available, and an increase in the performance of these                     market for multiplayer games and MMORPG. Latency of
products and services.                                                              transmission is not currently thought to be an issue
                                                                                -   Video calling
What will we do with 4G?                                                            This service, though technically available in the market for
Listed below are just some of the mobile services that will be                      some years, has never gained mass-market adoption. This
possible over 4G networks. They are listed in the order in which                    has been for a number of reasons, but primarily because
they are most likely to be commercialised:                                          the signal available over 3G networks is not reliable
                                                                                    enough to create a great user experience.
   -   Mobile broadband
       The operators have an imperative to reduce the heavy                  Roadmap for UK Deployment
       load on the 3G network caused by the successful rollout               The most advanced 4G offerings are in Oslo and Stockholm,
       and marketing of 3G dongles for laptops. This service will            where TeliaSonera have opened the first publicly available LTE
       be easy to get to market as the operators will simply have            network, reaching downlink speeds of 42.8 Mbit/sec.




                                                                        10                        Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
The UK operators are in the early stages of deploying 4G
networks, and it will involve a significant investment to upgrade
the network with this technology. As such it will represent the
completion of the operators move from a voice calling network to
a mobile data network.

A likely rollout is as follows:

    -   2012
        LTE networks to be launched tactically in London and the
        South-East to coincide with the Olympics. Expect to see
        high levels of brand marketing from operators announcing
        the new dawn of connectivity
    -   2015-2020
        Roll-out of the LTE Advanced standard across the UK
        networks nationwide, with data throughput of up to 150
        MB/sec                                                           Constraining Factors around 4G Rollout
                                                                         While 4G/LTE is virtually certain to happen in the UK, there are a
Example 4G Trialviii                                                     number of constraining factors:
As part of Telefonica s global LTE trials, O2 UK recently
implemented a small 4G network from various sites in Slough                 -   Handset adoption
(illustrated). The trial was a success, including:                              The usage of 4G products requires a dedicated chipset in
                                                                                the device, therefore no legacy handsets will be able to
    -   100Mbit/sec achieved throughput                                         access them. This requires OEMs to develop handsets
    -   Streaming HD video achieved                                             based on the new networks, and for shared standards to
    -   Multi-player gaming run over the network with no                        manage this process.
        noticeable latency                                                  -   Operator timescales
                                                                                While operators are often blamed for holding back the
                                                                                development of the mobile ecosystem, the rollout of next-
                                                                                gen networks is a colossal undertaking, hence the
                                                                                timescales indicated above. However, as the improvement
                                                                                of data services is a critical part of the operators future




                                                                    11                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
       business, I believe they will devote significant resource to                     o Video streaming requires 864kBits/second
       it, and will each be seeking first-mover advantage in the                 -   The network operators will not be able to manage or
       field. Therefore I would not be surprised to see operators                    constrain the choice of content consumed by consumers,
       going to market before the above timescale with localised                     so will have to find ways to backhaul the data
       offerings similar to the Scandinavian one mentioned                           requirements from the cellular network
       above.                                                                    -   A WiFi radio chip for a mobile device is a fraction of the
                                                                                     cost of a cellular data chip, so handset manufacturers will
So while 4G networks will certainly arrive, it is important to stress                have no hesitation about WiFi-enabling the vast majority of
that we do live in a thriving and data rich 3G era right now, so it                  devices
would be a mistake to wait for deployment of 4G before rolling out               -   A WiFi hub can cover up to 100m indoors, and up to 250m
any services. 4G will simply make services richer and faster rather                  outside, so a good spread of urban mobile data usage
than change the nature of them dramatically.                                         could easily be ported on to WiFi through existing, or
                                                                                     cheap to build, infrastructure

                                                                              However, we are some way off seeing a national WiFi network
Evolution of mobile WiFi
                                                                              that could support this. The nature of WiFi is essentially chaotic in
Mobile users are clearly using more data-driven applications year-
                                                                              that we are surrounded by WiFi constantly, but it is rarely
on-year. Although the network operators are publicly affirming that
                                                                              accessible due to account and login restrictions. Applications such
4G/LTE is the long-term solution, there remains considerable
                                                                              as The Cloud s FastConnect are going some way to harnessing
doubt elsewhere in the data communityix whether even 4G will be
                                                                              the untapped power of the nation s silent WiFi coverage, but as
able to manage the enormous bandwidth requirements that
                                                                              yet it has no direct impact for mobile.
consumers will demand with the current and next generation of
internet services that will be expected to port straight on to mobile.

Drivers for the uptake of mobile WiFi                                         WiMAX
WiFi providers such as The Cloud forecast that the use of WiFi by             While the network operators are attempting to provide high-end
mobile devices will overtake the entire data capacity of the cellular         data services through the roll-out of 3.5G and 4G networks,
networks within 3-5 years. Drivers for this will be:                          consumers are being approached also from the Broadband
   -   High-quality data services are becoming more and more                  sector. As well as wireless hotspots described above, a
       widely used                                                            competitor technology to 4G is WiMAX (Worldwide Interoperability
                                                                              for Microwave Access).
          o Hi-Definition YouTube requires 600 kBits/second




                                                                         12                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
WiMAX is essentially a broadband access point for multiple                               social behaviour / violent crime reduction team with video
devices over a much larger area than can be deployed using a                             recording devices for victim and witness interviews rather than
traditional wireless LAN device. In the US, where WiMAX is most                          still cameras and notebooks
advanced, the provider ClearWire has delivered coverage to
                                                                                  The trial demonstrated considerable benefits to a future roll-out of
Portland, Oregon, and is currently expanding to 9 further
                                                                                  WiMAX across a range of public service scenarios.
territories.

While initial excitement over the idea of WiMAX covering huge
urban areas with data service was considerable, the expectation                   Pervasive networks
on WiMAX has been scaled back over the past year. This is                         With uncertainty lingering over whether 4G/LTE will be able to
mostly due to the network operators, who have the established                     provide the bandwidth required for future applications, it is
infrastructure necessary to provide nationwide coverage, opting                   extremely likely that network operators and WiFi providers will
for LTE as their 4G standardx xi.                                                 begin to work together to provide a pervasive network . This
                                                                                  concept involves smart devices being able to switch data, voice,
UK Trial
                                                                                  or other transactions from a cellular mode to a WiFi mode
Maidstone Borough Council ran a trial in 2009, by creating a
                                                                                  seamlessly, in a continuation of the dual-mode devices we already
WiMAX area of 7.5 km² and running four usage scenarios.xii
                                                                                  see operating seamlessly between 2G and 3G.
   -   Public Safety
       Real-time video was provided from accident scenes over the                 The pervasive network is a theory that has buy-in from both sides
       network, enabling emergency services to develop better                     of the mobile data community: WiFi and network operator.
       strategies for tackling situations while also saving time by               However, the creation of a multi-spectrum client on a device that
       delivering critical information live to teams while on their way to        can transparently manage the hand-off of a transaction between
       incidents                                                                  WiFi and cellular networks has not yet been achieved. Even when
   -   CCTV trial                                                                 this is possible, any future devices will need to be modified to
       Deployed mobile CCTV cameras connecting over WiMAX, rather                 cater for the tweaks made to the frequency spectrum by different
       than fixed cameras that are more costly and take longer to
                                                                                  network operators.
       implement
   -   Building Site Inspection                                                   That said, the creation of a hardware/software combination that
       Streamed high quality real-time video of structural situations             can operate in a pervasive network environment is a target for the
       between locations
                                                                                  mobile industry as a whole, but one that may not see full
   -   Workforce mobility scenario
                                                                                  realisation within a 5-year period.
       Looked at the potential benefits of equipping the Council's anti-




                                                                             13                          Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Data Charging                                                            The benefit of the move to a more contracted base is that
The notion of data-charging has long been an inhibitor to mobile         contracts almost invariably come with a sizeable data allowance,
web, content, and application services, particularly for those           and many now have unlimited data (subject to an excessive/fair
targeting content and messages at a price sensitive audience.            usage policy).

The subject of consumer payment for data services is complex, if         For PAYG users, the situation is also improving, with operators
not at times murky. However, there are some very positive trends         including data more widely in tariffs, and usage of mobile internet
that should give heart to those wanting to provide data-based            in particular now being a key selling point to younger
services.                                                                demographics. Sample tariffs available at the low end of the
                                                                         market include:
Increase in share of post-pay contract users
As illustrated in the chart below, the operators are successfully                               Unlimited mobile web when you top up
                                                                            O2 Text & Web
                                                                                                more than £10 in a month
converting the market into a contract market. Where the UK has
                                                                                                500MB included with £30 SIM-only plans.
historically been 70% PAYG, the gap is now closing. Please note                 Orange
                                                                                                Free internet for all Dolphin customers
that the chart below does not include business phones, which                    Vodafone        50p per day up to 25MB
when included show postpay contracts as having a clear lead.                     Three          150MB with every top-up, then 30p/MB


                                                                         The attitude of the operatorsxiii regarding data charging runs as
                                                                         follows:

                                                                            -    The offering of bundled and clearly communicated data
                                                                                 packages is in the best interests of the operator, and
                                                                                 charging per MB is going to be reduced as far as possible
                                                                            -    Users who do not have a bundle, then use a lot of data,
                                                                                 will encounter bill-shock and therefore stay away from
                                                                                 mobile data for the future this is clearly bad for the
                                                                                 consumer, and the operator s long-term business
                                                                            -    Data bundles are essential for smartphone devices on
                                                                                 contract or PAYG, because without them the devices are
                                                                                 useless
                                                                            -    Pricing is set to be clear, fair and equitable for the user




                                                                    14                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
   -   Bundling of data for consumers also helps with network                 However, there is little in the way of mobile innovation coming
       capacity planning as it assists with foreknowledge of what             from the operators, who are concentrating on devices, tariffs,
       that user s behaviour is likely to be                                  Blackberry server implementations, and expanding their offerings
                                                                              from mobile phone provision to fixed broadband as well.
While young users have generally been particularly smart about
using data services, and often swap out SIM cards into the same               For usages of mobile tech for business, see sections later in this
device to use whatever deal is on offer for texting, internet, calling        document for channel applications of SMS, apps and more.
etc, the landscape for data charging should due to the factors
outlined above, become significantly less difficult, and more
predictable, over the coming years.                                           Mobile Crediting to customer balance
In addition, simple market forces have played a great part in the             An informal cross-operator initiative that is gaining traction is the
harmonisation of data charging. There is huge demand in the                   idea of using the mobile account to pay users real value, by
market for mobile data, which in turn has caused a                            adding money on to their PAYG balance, or reduce their next bill
commoditisation of the service as competition increases.                      for Pay Monthly customers.

                                                                              Although uses of this scheme have so
                                                                              far been undertaken only in the area of
How are operators servicing business?                                         sales promotions for brands such as
The usage of advanced mobile tech is surprisingly undeveloped in              Walkers and Fanta (pictured), this is a
the business world, with consumer services taking the leading role            robust and potentially very useful
in the same way that they have done online.                                   service to pay or compensate users
                                                                              without having to offer cash, cheque or
However, it was the concept of mobile email on the Blackberry                 bank transfer, and is likely to be
that galvanised the use of the data networks, and transformed our             included in many reward and loyalty
mobile way of working.                                                        programs over the next year or so.

Operator products                                                             For example, temporary employees or
Given that most business mobile systems from the SME sector                   contractors who have to make use of
upwards are ordered directly from the operators, this is where we             taxis, personal mobiles or other
should look for mass adoption of services.                                    sundries as part of their work for public services can simply text in
                                                                              an authorised code given from their employer to have the amount




                                                                         15                          Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
they are owed credited instantly to their mobile.        Customer Segmentation
                                                         Here are some statistics relating to the current operator landscape
                                                         in the UK, as reported by ComScore M:metrics, Jan 2010.

                                                         Share of market per UK operator




                                                         Plan Type in the UK




                                                    16                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
DEVICES + OPERATING SYSTEMS
In the introduction, we saw how the need for consumer choice is
not serviced by the rigid model where the entire user experience
is in the hands of the network operator.

To create a new market in mobile content and experience, the
lead has been taken by device manufacturers, notably Apple, both
in terms of their hardware, but more importantly, in terms of the
software that drives the device, the operating system.

To facilitate a level of control over their mobile experience, users
have started to choose a range of products and devices which,
like the iPhone, place the user s desire to choose and select their
preferred content at the heart of the experience.
                                                                            Smartphone v Feature Phone
Thus in an analysis of the three O s (Operator, OEM and                     It is fair to say that the mobile landscape has polarised around the
Operating System) the key factor in facilitating the user s desired         idea of whether a device is a smart phone or not. Non-
experience is going to be the OS, and the respective OS                     smartphones generally called Feature Phones are still
designers success at integrating or rendering the content will be           massively present in the UK market, and will remain so for some
the defining factor in which are widely adopted by the public in            time.
years to come.
                                                                            Given that the difference between the two is key, particularly when
                                                                            defining approaches to marketing and providing service through
                                                                            them, and considering that Feature Phones have a specific
                                                                            relevance to the government s policy of digital inclusion, it is
                                                                            worthwhile defining them in some detail.




                                                                       17                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Feature Phone Definitionxiv                                                -   More powerful processors to run complex
In general, a feature phone such as this                                       apps and image/video rendering
Samsung D800, has:                                                         -   Large screen facilitates better web
                                                                               browsing, often touch- or stylus-operated
   -   Proprietary operating system that                                   -   Data connectivity is a priority, so all will be
       cannot be updated over the air and                                      3G and WiFi-enabled
       has no roadmap for development on                                   -   Web browsing is through a fully featured
       the device                                                              browser that does, at worst, a reasonable
   -   Limited running of apps beyond the                                      job of rendering full web sites
       very basic Java and BREW application                                -   Fully-specced hardware including GPS,
       languages. These apps have minimal                                      accelerometer, high-end camera, large hard
       functionality or interaction with the                                   disc etc
       phone features such as camera,
       address book, messaging etc
   -   Small screen without touch capability
   -   Limited web browsing. Feature                                    The growth of smartphones
       phones can generally only view made-for-mobile WAP               While canvassing opinion widely for the writing of this paper,
       sites                                                            almost none of the industry players interviewed mentioned feature
   -   Few hardware features. Most feature phones will not              phones or expressed the slightest interest in them as part of the
       have onboard WiFi. Many will not have Bluetooth, 3G etc          mobile future, and some venture so far as to say that the feature
   -   Few software features. Many will not have video and              phone will be extinct in the near future.xvi
       music players, sideload capability, email etc
                                                                        A common view is that people now expect to have services like
                      xv                                                Facebook, Google, Hotmail and YouTube at their fingertips.
Smartphone Definition
The typical characteristics of a smartphone device, such as this        Phones that don t do this will simply not be bought, especially by
Google G2, are:                                                         young people. To make this possible users need a smartphone
                                                                        with a big screen and a good data connection.
   -   Smart operating systems that provide interfaces for
       application developers, and can usually be updated               The connection between device capability and usage of more
       through a versioning process                                     advanced mobile services such as browsing is proven, with
   -   Compatibility of apps an app written for the OS should           touchscreen phones generating three times more downloading,
       work across all phones that carry the OS




                                                                   18                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
streaming and browsing than non-touchscreen devices, with 3G               be released in the US for ~$30), and network operators are, as in
phones accounting for 85% of all such traffic.xvii                         the pictured example from Tmobile, heavily marketing entry-level
                                                                           smartphones as an affordable option that gives you the
Globally, smartphones are a key driver for the mobile marketxviii,         experience of a high-end device such as an iPhone, but without
with the trends for this kind of device continuing to risexix.             the premium tariff.
However, at the same time, from a global perspective, there is a
growth in emerging markets of very basic devices that provide              Handset manufacturers are also
simple texting and calling.                                                clouding the picture by releasing their
                                                                           so-called feature phones with a range
Smartphones, as defined above, currently represent around 37%              of high-end capabilities. For example
of the devices currently in use in the UKxx. However, a view on the        the new LG GD880 (pictured), for
future paints a clear vision of smartphone growth. A quick look at         release in Spring 2010, is supposedly
network operator shops shows that of the phones on offer to                a feature phonexxiv, but has an array of
prepay customers, around 35% are smartphonesxxi, while in the              more advanced features such as large touchscreen, web browser,
postpay market, the offering is reversed, with around 65% of               and contact syncing.
devices in the range being smartphones.
                                                                           Also Microsoft are rumouredxxv to be entering the feature phone
Young people are those most engaged with the kind of digital               space with some quasi-smart devices, which will further drive the
services now spreading across                                              performance of the so-called feature phone towards the
smartphones (social networks, video                                        smartphone arena.
etc) thus, it is safe to assume that this
demographic will lead the next
generation of smartphone adoption. The
view of Googlexxii is that these devices
will be mass market among all sections
of youth by 2011 and that now is the
time to be trialling modes and formats of
mobile communication to reach these
people.

In addition, prices for smartphones are
fallingxxiii (an Android device is shortly to




                                                                      19                        Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Likely segmental growth for smartphones




                                          20   Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Convergence Devices                                                        The convergence device is likely to be used in two key situations:
Users whose digital life is being ported from the fixed internet on        out of home web browsing where the user needs to stay in
to mobile devices are to have their range of choices increased by          touch, and sofa-browsing, where the user wants to go online but
the advent of a new sector of digital device the convergence               can t be bothered to open a PC.
device. This is essentially a hybrid PC/mobile that displays many
                                                                           The price point of both these device types is set to decline rapidly,
characteristics of both devices, but is ultimately neither.
                                                                           with numerous models coming to market in the US at $150xxvi
The convergence device is only emerging in its early stages, and
is taking a number of forms:
                                                                           iPad
   -   Smartbook                                                           The iPad is Apple s tablet device, and was launched with typical
       Combining features of a                                             fanfare in January 2010.
       smartphone and a netbook, the
                                                                           Reaction to the release was mixed, with Apple fans generally
       smartbook features always-on
                                                                           agreeing with Steve Jobs that the iPad is magical and
       behaviour, cellular and WiFI
                                                                           revolutionary , but others left wondering why anyone would want a
       connectivity, QWERTY keyboard,
                                                                           great big iPhone you can t make calls on.
       reduced capability OS such as
       Android, Chromium or Linux-                                         In its favour, the iPad has a superb user interface, for reading
       based variants, and ARM processors to achieve longer                newspapers and books, and is supported by the iTunes content
       battery life.                                                       portfolio. All iPhone apps work in it automatically, although many
   -   Tablet                                                              look a little odd when expanded to the iPad size. However an iPad
       Features of a tablet include capacitive touchscreen for all         SDK is available for developers who want to create apps and
       data input and application usage,                                   content specifically for the device.
       multi-touch. The most renowned
       example of the tablet is the Apple                                  The list of negatives is rather longer: no multitasking, which
       iPad, but there are countless                                       seems a waste of such a powerful processor, and limits the
       manufacturers now producing                                         functionality to little beyond that of the iPhone, no camera, no
       them, including this MSI model                                      support for Flash, meaning popular web games such as Farmville,
       that runs the Android OS.                                           and video sites such as Hulu won t work until recoded to HTML5,
                                                                           there is little extensibility in the form of USB, HDMI etc to connect
                                                                           to other devices.




                                                                      21                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
With all these drawbacks, the iPad does not seem to be satisfying              -   Targeting
the needs of those looking for a stylish portable PC, and without                  Generally this kind of device would be assumed to be
even an SMS application, it certainly isn t a mobile phone.                        initially used by typical early-adopters. However, as the
Therefore with the book-reader the only new and impressive piece                   price point for non-Apple devices may start at a not
of functionality, it could be, as described by one criticxxvii, a                  dissimilar point from smartphones, this remains to be seen.
 magical, revolutionary Kindle .                                                   Browser-based targeting for mobile advertising should be
                                                                                   possible, although it is likely that most sites and networks
However, the device has sparked excitement from the media                          initially will simply treat convergence devices as web
sector, with print titles such as the Guardianxxviii and Conde Nastxxix            devices.
having firm plans to deliver iPad formats, due to the device s
predicted high-end demographic and positive book/magazine
reading experience. A recent survey by AdMobxxx revealed that
16% of iPhone users plan to purchase an iPad within 6 months.

Approach to convergence devices
Smartbooks and tablets are not currently widespread in the UK.
However, should they spread, the techniques for engaging with
their users are likely to be:

   -   OS
       Assuming that the devices ship with mobile-based OS,
       which are likely to be Android, Apple and MeeGo, apps
       should be developed in the native formats and distributed
       and marketed through these app store channels
       It is expected that Windows 7 will move on to tablets as
       well, with many users seeking out the familiar desktop
       experience on the more portable device
   -   Web
       The devices will have specific browsing properties related
       to screen size, touch navigation etc. A new set of browser
       properties will have to be developed and adhered to in
       order to optimise the user experience.




                                                                          22                     Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
The Mobile OS and Manufacturer Landscape                                    market by 2014, and in the absence of a comparable UK forecast,
                                                                            the author predicts the UK market will grow to 60% over a similar
Introduction                                                                period.
With the operating system of the mobile device becoming the
defining factor of user choice, and how content and service is
enabled through mobile, this section will take a look at the current
                                                                            Apple and iPhone
status and potential future of the major players in the space.
                                                                            The launch of the iPhone has arguably been the greatest stimulus
The graph below shows release figures from Gartner on the share             to the development of the mobile landscape over the past 5 years,
of the smartphone market from 2008-2009, and adds a forecast                and is widely seen to be responsible for the huge growth of the
for the major smartphone OS s to 2012. While Symbian sees its               mobile internet, the mass adoption and commercialisation of
dominant position eroded, the forecast sees Android as the main             mobile apps, the mobilisation of social networks, and the
beneficiary, although it starts from almost nothing. Microsoft              revolution in both handset and OS design.
recovers some ground from its current weak position due to the
                                                                            Some key stats are telling of the scale of the achievement, and
launch of Windows Phone 7 Series, and iPhone remains relatively
                                                                            the changes that have been brought about in user behaviour:
stable.
                                                                               -   3bn apps downloaded in 18 months, at a current rate of
  60.0%                                                                            300,000 per day
  50.0%                                                                        -   Despite having ~5% of the UK market, iPhone generates
                                                    Symbian                        over 60% of all mobile web impressions
  40.0%
                                                    Blackberry                 -   iPhone owners are the most likely to purchase another
  30.0%                                                                            phone from the same manufacturerxxxi
                                                    iPhone
  20.0%                                                                        -   Vodafone sold 50,000 units on launch day alonexxxii
                                                    Windows Mobile
  10.0%                                                                     The iPhone, and how to address its users, is therefore a critical
                                                    Android
   0.0%                                                                     part of mobile strategy moving forwards.
             2008        2009       2012
                                                                            The Future for iPhone
                                                                            Apple are famously tight-lipped around anything to do with product
It should be noted that all these shares are of the smartphone              development. Therefore anyone trying to predict their next move
market, rather than the mobile market as a whole. The
smartphone market itself is forecast to grow to 37% of the global




                                                                       23                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
relies on industry rumour and conjecture. However, of the rumours           Unlike most leading mobile OS to this point, Android was created
to emerge recently, these are the most credible:                            as open source software, under the auspices of the Open
                                                                            Handset Alliance, a consortium of hardware, software and
   -   A new device ( iPhone 4G ) will be release in Summer                 telecom companies dedicated to advancing open standards for
       2010, or perhaps just a major 4.0 software release for               mobile devices.
       3G/3GS
   -   The new device/software will support multi-tasking for all or        As it is open source, handset manufacturers and developers can
       specially selected apps                                              therefore customise the flavour of Android shipped with devices,
   -   Reduced price to broaden market share                                and apps can embed themselves much deeper into the OS than
   -   Improved AMOLED screen from Samsung                                  the superficial runtime-based model preferred by Apple and
   -   Improved camera, and support for video chat                          executed on most other devices.
   -   Enhanced gesture controls to be released, such as triple
       tap or long tap                                                      It also means, that Google get to install and embed their software
   -   Built-in NFC chip                                                    and products within the device, to make them the de facto choice
                                                                            of all Android users, thus taking a share of the rapidly expanding
                                                                            mobile search market.
Android
Google s dynamic entry into the mobile                                      Strategy
marketplace, with its Android operating system,                             Google s strategy is simply to offer the Android OS to as many
and a raft of mobile products and services in                               device manufacturers as possible to achieve mass reach within
addition to its key search technology, has certainly                        the mobile landscape. The more users there are equipped with
caused some ruffling of feathers among the                                                         the OS, the more pages will be served
network operatorsxxxiii. Existing players from manufacturers and                                   through Google s mobile search and other
operators are clearly concerned about the possibility that Google                                  products, and the more advertising revenue
could take over the mobile landscape in the same way that they                                     will be generated.
have in the online search market.
                                                                                                  Android is offered to handset manufacturers
Brief History                                                                                     for free, a model that would appear to give it
Having realised early on that the key component to owning the                                     competitive advantage over Microsoft, who
user experience on mobile was the mobile OS, Google acquired                                      charge a licence to manufacturers for
Android Inc, who developed the first version of the system, then                                  Windows Mobile. This appeals to a number
launched Android to the market in November 2007.                                                  of OEMs, particularly those from a PC




                                                                       24                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
background such as Toshiba, Acerxxxiv and Dell (pictured), and to            The Android Opportunity
those who have no firmly established content model, such as                  From a UK government perspective, Android is interesting for two
Motorola and HTC. Key to the continued rollout of Android will be            reasons:
the choices of large OEMs such as Samsung and LG. Both have
issued Android phones, but also have the option of using Symbian                -   Reach
3 or (in Samsung s case Bada) as well. Nokia have no plans to                       Android will be the second largest player in the OS market
implement Android on their devices as that would be in direct                       within a couple of years, and the users of the platform are
competition to their in-house Symbian OS and Ovi content                            more highly engaged with mobile content than those of
offering.                                                                           Nokia/Symbian, with early figures from the Android Market
                                                                                    showing around 40 apps per userxxxix, and a very similar
Although Android is primarily aimed at the high-end smartphone                      browsing behaviour to the iPhonexl
market, the devices are sure to penetrate all sections of the                   -   Consumers
market much quicker than the iPhone. For example, prices of                         Android users are currently at the very high-tech end of the
older models drop rapidly as they become outdated, so a top-end                     market, with 73% of them being male as of January 2010xli.
smartphone such as the HTC Hero can now be found retailing in                       However, this mix will doubtless shift to a more equal
the US for as little as $30xxxv.                                                    male/female split, just as the iPhone (57% male) has done
                                                                                    over time, and as the range of content that appeals to all
Also Google are rumoured to be developing phones specifically                       increases.
for the low end of the market to attack Nokia s global dominance                    Unlike Apple though, Google phones are heading towards
in the feature phone space.                                                         all sectors of the market, and Android is likely to be one of
                                                                                    the key factors involved in bringing a true smartphone
Market Share
Android has gone from a standing start to being a major player in                   experience to lower demographics in the UK.
the smartphone space. A range of hero devices such as the
Motorola Droid (250,000 sales in its week of releasexxxvi), and the
HTC G2, have propelled Android to a current daily shipment of                Nokia/Symbian
60,000 devicesxxxvii. The Sony Ericsson X10 will add to this                 Nokia have been the leading force behind the development of the
catalogue later in 2010. So although Android currently accounts              mobile device for many years, and still hold a huge market share
for only ~5%xxxviii, of the UK smartphone market, this is set to rise        globally and in the UK where it stands at 43%xlii.
to a point where Android outstrips the iPhone by 2012.
                                                                             However, Nokia is widely viewed to have fallen behind
                                                                             dramatically in the innovation stakes, with Apple, RIM and Android




                                                                        25                        Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
taking over the valuable high-end smartphone field, resulting in             The 5230 (pictured) is a bona fide smartphone, but retails at under
some steep decline in market share in the sectorxliii.                       £100 already on PAYG, and is already free with a contract on
                                                                             some networks. It is extremely likely that Nokia will release similar
However, while Nokia s offering is continually doubted, particularly         devices at a price point of £70 or less in 2010-11. Ultimately Nokia
with the perceived failure of major product and content launches             with this price point, and other players like LG who have similar
such as Comes With Musicxliv, and often mocked within the mobile             devices, will signal the end of the feature phone
communityxlv, Nokia through 2010-11 will fight back strongly with a          among young demographics in the next 18
combination of devices, operating system revamp, and content.                months.
Nokia devices                                                                At the top end of the market, Nokia are fighting
While Apple have consumed much of the hype surrounding new                   back against its smartphone competitors with
mobile devices since 2008, it should not escape notice that in the           devices such as the Nokia X6xlviii (pictured) which
meantime Nokia have released a number of devices into the                    as well hardware including 32GB storage, TV Out
market to little acclaim, but enormous consumer uptake.                      compatibility, iPhone-style capacitive screen and
The Nokia 5800, for example, is currently the most widely used               more, comes with a wide, if unfocused, range of
device in the UKxlvi, taking over from the Sony Ericsson K800 as             on-board content from both Nokia s Ovi range
the top phone of choice for younger users, and is largely                    and third parties such as Lonely Planet, Michelin,
responsible for pushing the younger demographic in the direction             EA and Gameloft.
of smartphones.                                                              OS Symbian 3
Nokia s device strategy is to create the best device in every                Nokia s next-generation smartphone OS is Symbian 3. In open
                                                                             competition with iPhone and Android, Symbian 3 is expected to be
sectorxlvii, and therefore will continue to push forwards in the low-
end device market as well as in the                                          installed in all new Nokia smartphones by the second half of 2010.
smartphone sector where competition is                                       The success of Symbian 3 is absolutely critical to Nokia retaining
fierce.                                                                      its leading market share as the desire for enhanced features and
                                                                             experience intensifies. It has also been made open-source so that
Among hero devices in the low-end
market is the 5230 that includes bundled                                     developers, operators and other OEMs can use it freely and
Ovi content (see below) as well as                                           customise versions for devices.
Facebook apps, GPS, Sat Nav and more.                                        A number of key improvements to previous Symbian versions
                                                                             have been made:




                                                                        26                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
   -   HDMI support to enable users to plug into a TV and watch           WM devices were at this time among the most sophisticated
       in HD                                                              smartphones available.
   -   Music Store integration within the radio, so users can buy
       tracks they listen to from any music store                         However, Microsoft was launching these products into a market
   -   Memory management optimisation                                     that was not yet ready for mass smartphone adoption, and the
   -   Improved 2d and 3d graphics architecture                           devices only acquired niche business and geek audiences. Also
   -   4G-ready, meaning apps are prepared for higher data                the network infrastructure of 3G coverage, content downloads,
       rates of the future                                                WiFi etc was not supportive of a data-heavy device.
   -   Improved connectivity, enabling iPhone-style switching             Since then, Microsoft have, in terms of agility to market, and
       from cellular to WiFi                                              particularly in depth of content offering, been soundly out-
   -   Enhanced UI, including multi-touch                                 manoeuvred by other players, notably RIM and Apple, and have
   -   A widget-based homescreen (pictured below)                         seen sales decline even in an exploding smartphone marketl.

                                                                          The state of affairs led to widespread dissatisfaction within
                                                                          Microsoft, and led Steve Ballmer to comment that Microsoft had
                                                                           screwed up with Windows Mobile . The current release of
                                                                          Windows Mobile (6.5), was not supported by analysts as leading
                                                                          to recovery, and thus Microsoft are pinning their
                                                                          hopes of a recovery on Windows Phone 7
                                                                          Series.

                                                                          Launch
                                                                          The new OS, recently given a debut at Mobile
                                                                          World Congress in Barcelonali is likely to be
                                                                          launched in time for the Christmas sales spike
Windows Phone
                                                                          2010, and Windows has confirmed partnerships
The Windows Mobile brand first emerged in 2003xlix, and was built
                                                                          with Telefonica, Orange, Vodafone and
into a range of PDA-style mobile devices such as the O2 XDA and
                                                                          Deutsche Telecom.
QTEK 9100. Bundled with a range of software, including pocket
versions of Word, Outlook, Excel, and a full internet browser, the        Microsoft, replicating the approach that has led
                                                                          them to dominate the PC OS market over the




                                                                     27                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
past 20 years, are taking a partnership approach, with OEM                       -   Hotmail
partners including Samsung, LG, and HTC, as well as new mobile                   -   Bing search
players from the PC world, such as Acer, Dell and HP.                            -   Windows Live Messenger
                                                                                 -   Windows Live
The Approach                                                                     -   Xbox Live
Microsoft have designed Windows Phone 7 Series around three                      -   Zune music player
guiding principles:
                                                                              The user s Windows Live ID will enable all these services to
   -   Unique appearance                                                      spring to life with minimum set-up and configuration required. For
       The iPhone and its any imitators have taken the lots of                example, the user will be able to make games challenges to other
       buttons in a row approach as far as it can, and their belief           Xbox Live members from their device, and upload over WiFi all
       is that users are already, or soon will, begin to experience           their Zune playlists.
        app-fatigue
   -   Personalisation                                                        Prospects
       With most smartphones, but particularly iPhone and                     Microsoft is at a make-or-break point in its approach to mobile,
       Blackberry, the appearance of the device is governed by                and the success of Windows Phone 7 Series is the key factor that
       the OS, rather than by the user. Their view is that as the             will decide this.
       phone is the most personal device, it should be about who
       you are and what you want to do with it                                There are many reasons for optimism:
   -   Integration                                                               -   The first reaction to Windows Phone 7 Series has been
       Although the OS does support stand-alone apps, it is                          extremely positivelii
       structured to integrate information in ways that make
                                                                                 -   The partnership approach to working with OEMs is proven
       sense to a user. Therefore if they want to contact a friend,                  from the PC world
       they will be able to see all that friend s contact info (phone,
                                                                                 -   The broad approach of using data in a customer-centric
       email, meetings scheduled, IM, social networks etc) in the                    way seems in line with current user needs, and is ahead of
       Address Book, rather than having to open a series of apps                     the thinking from more app-centred OS providers
       to find the user                                                          -   Microsoft have a massive base of existing web product
Features                                                                             users: over 20 million active Windows Live IDs in the UKliii,
Windows Phone 7 Series is exclusively for smartphone devices. It                     and a phone that seamlessly connects their mobile
aims to bring together seamlessly on to mobile the following                         consumption to their existing digital life will be attractive
existing Microsoft products:




                                                                         28                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
There are of course obstacles in the way of mass uptake of                 This is not to say that their market share is insignificant, with over
Windows Phone 7 Series:                                                    2m currently active in the UKliv, and with data suggesting a
                                                                           significant kicklv in volumes towards the end of 2009.
   -   Microsoft will charge handset manufacturers a licence to
       use the OS on their devices, whereas Android is free.
       Microsoft justify this by stating that the support, shorter
       time-to-market and better compatibility will ultimately
       provide a better offering to OEMs, but this is as yet
       unproven
   -   Windows Phone 7 Series is very late to market, and by the
       time it is released, many users will be embedded in
       alternative smartphone experiences
   -   Windows Phone 7 Series will doubtless work best for
       consumers who are habitual users of Microsoft PC
       products. Although Microsoft work extremely closely on
       integrating less competitive products such as Facebook,
       those who use iTunes for their music or Playstation for
       gaming will be unable to benefit from the full experience of
       the system                                                          But while RIM continue to make hay in the corporate space, with
   -   The Zune music player and ecosystem, which is a key part            over 22% of the corporate market, they have grown to 3% among
       of the offering, is not widely used in the UK, although the         private users as well.
       Zune HD is popular in the US. If the user s music collection
       is not compatible, a Windows OS will be unattractive, if not
       unworkable for many users



RIM
While Apple have stolen a march on the smartphone market, RIM,
who make the Blackberry line of mobile devices, have been
struggling to keep up.




                                                                      29                          Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
                                                                            -   Nokia is the dominant player in the corporate space, with
                                                                                half of the market
                                                                            -   RIM are a strong second, with their history as a business
                                                                                email device
                                                                            -   Apple are equal with Sony Ericsson in 3rd with 6%

                                                                         For business purposes, it is clear that while the Blackberry is the
                                                                         made-for-business device, Nokia as the de facto standard is an
                                                                         excellent vehicle for business service and information in terms of
                                                                         scale. However, many of these devices are low-end devices such
                                                                         as the 6500 which are unsuitable for apps or a decent browsing
                                                                         experience.

                                                                         Strategy
                                                                         While most manufacturers have been developing their devices
The following chart illustrates the relative share that the major
                                                                         from feature phones into smartphones, Blackberry have been
manufacturers have in the self-paid and corporate-paid sectors:
                                                                         developing into smartphones from email devices. Early devices to
                                                                         incorporate smartphone technology have been patchy, such as
                                                                         the failed mechanical touchscreen on the Blackberry Stormlvi, but
                                                                         more recent output such as the Bold 9700 have received more
                                                                         positive reviewslvii.

                                                                         One major statement of intent is the purchase of browser
                                                                         company Torch Mobile in 2009, which will lead to the release of
                                                                         the new WebKit-powered browser later in 2010.

                                                                         A further line of expansion is to build on the surprising take-up of
                                                                         the device by children and teenagers (see 13-17 segment in
                                                                         graph on previous page). The Blackberry has become a surprise
                                                                         hero device in the segment due to its Blackberry Messenger
                                                                         service (see section below in Mobile Channels).
A number of interesting findings arise from this graph:




                                                                    30                          Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Samsung Bada                                                             Samsung, like Microsoft, work on a partnership model, only
Bada is the new operating system from Samsung to be released             Samsung s relationships are with network operators rather than
along with its first device, the Samsung Wave, in Q2 2010. Billed        hardware manufacturers. This takes the form of customised
as a feature-rich platform that delivers enhanced mobile                 versions of the OS to provide a joint offering.
experiences for consumers, and a support program for
developers lviii, Bada supports a new user interface, and comes          Targeting
with its own App Store, that will enable developers to build apps        Samsung have a significant heritage in selling high volumes of
that integrate deeply, iPhone-style) into the phone s features.          mass market devices, with the D500, D900 and Tocco Ultra
                                                                         amongst others being among the top-selling phones of the past 5
Although Bada is released into a crowded and dynamic OS                  years.
marketplace, the fact that Samsung is currently the No2 device
maker globally should give it some cut-through.                          This ethos is being applied to the next generation of functionality
                                                                         Bada will aim to open up mass market handsets to smart
Strategy                                                                 capability.
Samsung have not previously owned an OS, so the launch of
Bada is interesting news for their incumbents.                           Therefore, like Nokia and LG, we can expect to see Samsung
While Android has been released on a couple                              smartphones continue to replace feature phones in the lower end
of handsets, such as the Galaxy Portal, and                              of the demographic.
Android is set to remain on their rosterlix,                             Content
commentators speculate that the launch of                                The Samsung content offering will be led by the Bada Store, an
Bada could see the end of Samsung s                                      app store open to third party developers. Bada apps are to be
relationship with Symbian. This would make                               written in C++ which lends itself to games development, and the
sense, as Bada and Symbian are in direct                                 simple porting of console games on to the device.
competition for the mobile content space.
                                                                         Industry speculation and past recordlx also hints that Samsung
The share of Samsung units that are                                      might be the handset partner signed by Layar to embed their AR
apportioned to Bada and Android will also be                             browser globally.
interesting. Bada is an extremely important
strategic focus for Samsung, so it would be                              Content partnerships and OS versions for operators are to be
little surprise if Android was to start to be marginalised in its        controlled at national level, so local content could stand a good
favour.                                                                  chance of being promoted on the handset.




                                                                    31                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Prospects                                                                  the project has recently been backed by Orange for roll-out to its
Although Bada is not yet launched, the combination of market               base.lxii
reach, pricing, and handset quality should ensure Bada not just
survives, but makes headway over the next few years, and,
although likely smaller than Android, could form a significant part
                                                                           LiMo
of any mobile strategy moving forwards. However, it is unlikely to         LiMo is billed as the first truly open, hardware-independent,
be before mid-2011 that it hits significant market share.                  Linux-based operating system for mobile devices .lxiii The project is
One of the main challenges will be recruiting developers to its app        governed by the LiMo Foundation.
store, but provided a decent content catalogue is created then             50 handset models have so far been released, but the LiMo
users will continue to benefit from the devices.
                                                                           project is in competition with Android, which is also Linux-based,
                                                                           and received a blow when Motorola downgraded their
                                                                           membership of Limo due to their view that the Android platform
Others                                                                     gives it a richer, more consistent foundation with strong support
                                                                           for the ecosystem and developer community .lxiv
MeeGo
MeeGo is the name for a high-end smartphone OS that is being
developed jointly by Intel and Nokia. An open-source platform, it
will be based on Linux and previous projects Nokia s Maemo                 Developments in Smartphone function
and Intel s Moblin, which will now be terminated.                          The enormous change we are seeing in mobile consumption, and
                                                                           the variety of services now regularly used by UK consumers, is of
MeeGo will be used by Intel partners for a wide range of devices           course made possible by the improvement and innovation in the
including handsets, "netbooks" and Internet Protocol televisions.          device hardware sector.
Intel will run an application store for these devices.
                                                                           The obvious features that are a focus for device manufacturers
Nokia will create an ARM-based version of MeeGo with a                     are: better screens, multi-touch, compass, accelerometer,
proprietary user experience on N900 series devices, which will             augmented reality, AR gaming, and connectivity.
remain Nokia's ultra-high-end smartphone platform and will use
the Ovi store.                                                             This section aims to look at some of the less obvious current and
                                                                           future developments in phone capability that will nonetheless
Although MeeGo is in its early stages of development, there will           impact on the kind of services that are provided in the future.
be high-end handsets in the market running it later in 2010lxi, and




                                                                      32                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Background Running                                                           manager app, such as Advanced Task Killer (pictured)
The notion of various application runtimes persisting on a device
simultaneously is taken for granted by PC users. However, with               Why Background Running is important
mobile, this is not always the case.                                           1. It fundamentally shifts the Apple-led view of a mobile as
                                                                                   being a phone with some apps on it to being an
Apple s iPhone OS, for example, insists that you can only use the                  integrated device which can play a more active role in the
app you re in . This creates a host of missed opportunities for                    user s life
users and developerslxv, and is a source of irritation to some                 2. It enables both the user and app developers to create a
iPhone users, as it restricts the freedom they expect from the                      flavour of phone, with dynamic content and interactions
device. For example, if a user is walking along the street finding                 served to the user on a flexible and open basis
their way to a destination, while listening to music, and they want            3. It helps combat the common problem of inactive apps,
to stop to change albums, they have to close the navigation                        where users download an app due to an initial interest,
application to open the iPod player, thus potentially missing a turn.              and then fail to open it regularly as it sits forgotten on a
A device with background running could operate the navigation                      page of their iPhone. Fewer than 5% of apps are still in
app and the iPod at the same time, and keep speaking turn-by-                      use a month after initial download.lxvi
turn instructions while the music is changed.
                                                                             While iPhone s Notifications system provides a primitive interface
Whether by design, to capitalise on Apple s weakness in this                 to reawaken app usage, it by no means caters for the richness
regard, or as a simple evolutionary process towards a more and               that a true background running framework can deliver.
more useful device, background running
has been built into some of the newer                                        For example, an Android user who has downloaded a future Job
operating systems, primarily Android and                                     Centre Plus app could be reminded the day before each
Windows Phone 7 Series. Applications for                                     appointment of the time and location via a pop-up. He can be
these devices are able to run as processes                                   offered the option on the pop-up to confirm or reschedule. A
in the background, while the user closes                                     confirmation would be passed directly to the Job Centre Plus
their on-screen interfaces to perform                                        booking system, with a reschedule triggering a phone call in either
another task, or stop using the phone.                                       direction, or an opening of the full app pre-populated with a
Tasks can then be managed through an                                         selection of dates within the mandated period.
interface, or through a separate task                                        Likewise a health-care app for those with depression might initiate
                                                                             a voice-led conversation with the user, where the phone speaks a
                                                                             variety of questions about their current feelings, progress with




                                                                        33                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
medication etc, and the user responds by selecting the relevant
multiple choice options through the interface.

The growth of the Android platform and other flexible platforms,
and the myriad of possibilities for designing dynamic interactions
around users actual needs means that this kind of experience
design should be a focus for the future.



Location
The use of location is just one component of the mobile world that
has exploded since 2007. The use of location within the iPhone
for Google Maps, and the integration of the location APIs within
the iPhone SDK has made the use of location a core function of
the new generation of smartphones.

However, Apple cannot take all the credit for this revolution. As
Juniper have notedlxvii, it has taken the simultaneous development
of a number of elements to create the seamless transition of
location-based services on to mobile.
                                                                          All of these will continue to evolve and improve over the next few
                                                                          years, and with more and more developers aiming their products
                                                                          and services at the emerging app stores, services will proliferate.
                                                                          Juniper forecasts that revenues generated from mobile location
                                                                          apps will more than quadruple by 2014.

                                                                          Areas of mobile that will continue to benefit from the improved
                                                                          location tools available today include:

                                                                             -   Search
                                                                                 Media owners rate location-enabled search as an extremely




                                                                     34                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
       powerful media tool, and Google s                                           businesses should be encouraged to be part of location-based
       local search (pictured) which works                                         and visual directories on mobile devices.
       across a number of browsers, is an
       example of this function which is
       forecast to grow
   -   Navigation                                                                  NFC
       Although it took some time for the                                          Near Field Communication is a short-range wireless technology
       iPhone software to allow turn-by-turn                                       which enables the exchange of information, or identification of a
       navigation, there are now a number of                                       user or device, over a very short distance, eg 10 cm.
       apps that allow it, and full navigation is
       also supported by Nokia Maps                                                NFC is already widely used in systems such as TFL s Oystercard,
   -   Mobile Social Communities (see                                              and the Contactless Payment systems operated by banks and
       section within Mobile Channels)                                             credit card providers.
       Tech VC firm Kleiner Perkins
       recentlylxviii defined mobile location as a priority as You Are             The next phase already underway for NFC is for the chips to be
       Where You Go represents people s footstream in life. This is a              incorporated into mobile devices themselves.
       higher signal definition of what your interests are. If you can look
       at other people s interest like you, that s extremely powerful.             Current Usage
   -   Augmented Reality and visual search                                         NFC handsets are as yet not widely available in the UK market, as
       Location, combined with compass for direction, are key                      the desirable ecosystem to support their use and to make NFC a
       components in many AR experiences
                                                                                   must-have component of a new phone does not yet exist. Without
While the use of location outside of the current realm of find-me                  such a desire from the consumer, handset manufacturers have
services and entertainment products is limited, there are limitless                not been motivated to install NFC in their devices. Therefore NFC,
possibilities for what might be achieved. For example, if a user                   though a proven technology, has been a victim of the chicken-
had a 999 app installed on their phone, they could use it to trigger               and-egg scenario that often befalls new developments in mobile.
a call to the emergency services that passed along with it all the                 Devices such as the Nokia 6131 with built-in NFC, while effective
meta-data around their exact current location, along with their ID                 as demonstrators of the technology, have not hit the mass market.
and callback details.
                                                                                   Future usage
In the business sector, the use of location should be encouraged                   Although deployment of NFC mobile in the UK has been slow,
to streamline the arrival of tradesmen, goods and services, and                    2010 will see the start of NFC roll-out in earnest.




                                                                              35                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Leading the way will be financial institutions, who are planning
firmly to launch NFC in mobile to accompany their Contactless
credit and debit cards. First to market is likely to be a partnership
between Barclaycard and Orange, who are to release a
contactless device before the end of 2010lxix. This will allow
Barclaycard customers to wave-and-pay at a range of outlets. For
security reasons, the amount users will be able to spend per
transaction will be limited to £10.

Forecast of NFC devices
The following chart shows a forecast for NFC devices shipped
globally over the next two years. Although the figures are only a
little over a year old, they are already some way ahead of current
estimates of actual market penetration. A reasonable estimate
would put reality a year behind these forecasts.



                                                                             Future uses of Mobile NFC
                                                                             While there is little doubt that NFC will become a widely adopted
                                                                             payment mechanic over the next decade, there is great potential
                                                                             for the technology to have a broader function and become of great
                                                                             utility to consumers.

                                                                             For handset manufacturers to embed NFC tech widely in their
                                                                             handset ranges, an ecosystem must develop to make it useful and
                                                                             desirable for consumers. A number of handset manufacturers
                                                                             such as Nokialxx, are creating partnerships to embed secure NFC
                                                                             equipment more widely within their devices.

                                                                             One small NFC tag in a user device could be used in a variety of
                                                                             ways:




                                                                        36                        Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
                                                                         operates as a satellite prepaid Stored Value card associated with
                                                                         the main account.

                                                                         Stores that accept NFC payment in 2010 are associated with
                                                                         quick low-value convenience payments, but these will broaden
                                                                         considerably from 2011 onwards.




                                                                         P2P Payment
                                                                         NFC chips aren t only able to communicate with fixed terminals
                                                                         such as ePOS systems and ID verification; they can also connect
                                                                         and exchange data with other peer devices. This will enable in the
                                                                         long term the creation of services whereby users can pay real
                                                                         money from mobile device to mobile device by swiping them
                                                                         together.
Mobile ID recognition
NFC chips can store small amounts of ID information, but the             This idea is in its early stages, with the standards for peer-to-peer
unique ID inherent in each NFC chip can be synced to a user ID in        NFC only being set in Jan 2010lxxi, however, with the rapid pace of
any number of systems. Therefore in the same way that an office          developments in the mobile payment space constantly
worker is tapped into a building using the unique ID in their NFC        accelerating, a platform for mobile P2P payments is likely to be in
key fob, so a member of the public could use their NFC ID to             trial before 2012.
check in to a Job Centre, collect a passport, carry their driving
licence etc.                                                             Transport and Ticketing
                                                                         While NFC is widely used across transport systems including
Contactless Retailers                                                    TFL s Oystercard, and with the Government funding the biggest
Payment providers are encouraging the uptake of contactless              urban transport authorities to switch to NFClxxii, it has yet to be
payment by shipping POS systems that feature the technology.             implemented on mobile in the UK.
Mobile NFC devices will then be able to make payments at these
outlets, provided the NFC chip is synced with the credit card, or        A 2008 trial of NFC Oystercard mobiles was conducted by O2 and
                                                                         TFL, but while the results were extremely positive from a




                                                                    37                          Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
consumer perspective, with 89% of the user base stating they                                      no take-up of advertisers or content owners
would like to use Oystercard on their mobile in the futurelxxiii, there                           creating codes to be scanned.
are still no plans for Oyster to be deployed on mobile devices.
                                                                                                  Therefore while the use of QR is ubiquitous in
However, more trials are ongoing across Europe, such as the                                       Japanlxxv, there are few signs that the
current SNCF trial that enables users to purchase or top-up tickets                               placement of codes in the real world in the UK
to their mobile from any terminallxxiv.                                                           is about to get any traction.

Social Interface                                                               That s not to say that QR is not a powerful
Along with the rest of the NFC landscape, any social interfaces or             idea the notion of taking a user from a brief
consumer content sharing tools are as yet unavailable. However,                printed pamphlet into a detailed mobile site or
with the NFC P2P standards agreed, it will be possible, should                 app to service their information requirement
mobile OS and handset manufacturers launch the right products                  is strong, and ultimately it would be good for
to market, for users to swap content or contact details using NFC              any public building to be coded so that users
peer to peer. For example, a Facebook app on an Android device                 who are in the area can scan to view its
could enable users to friend each other through touching devices               official web site, opening hours, key staff,
at an event rather than having to search each other through an                 video content etc.
OTA connection.
                                                                               One significant move in the field could be an
                                                                               inclusion of QR into Facebook. Unpublicised
                                                                               tests in March 2010lxxvi have seen QR codes
Barcodes and QR                                                                added to Facebook profiles for user ID and
The use of barcode or QR scanning for mobile has been much                     for status updates, and this could be a
discussed in the UK since 2007. However, aside from some small                 significant part of Facebook s future in the
on-pack activity by brands such as Pepsi, there has been no                    location space..
commercial application for the technology outside of industrial
component ID in factories.                                                     There are two other small developments in
                                                                               the QR field:
The reason for this lies in the fact that up until recently, users
have been extremely unlikely to download the required Java                        -   Since the code scanner on many Android devices is very
application on to their mobile to scan codes, and there has been                      good, some Android fan sites like Android Anarchylxxvii




                                                                          38                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
       feature a QR code to open the Android Market to the right           As its name suggests, Goggles harnesses the power of Google s
       page to download                                                    database of information, and makes it relevant to the location and
   -   Microsoft have recently launched a new code reader that             orientation of the device (using compass and GPS), and then
       is deployed to a variety of devices. Though this is in its          performs a visual analysis of the content of the viewfinder based
       early stages, it appears that Microsoft will be investing in        on these factors as filters for search. When Google feeds back
       the scheme.lxxviii                                                  some results, based on a successful analysis of the picture, the
   -   Marks & Spencer have trialled implementing QR codes on              search results are shown via a built-in browser.
       to some product to direct users to mobile web microsites
       with product info and entertainment content                         Clearly Goggles is restricted to smartphones that support location
                                                                           and compass, but Google s ambition is to make visual search a
                                                                           key part of their offering. This may do little more than make their
Image Recognition                                                          already established offering more potent and more accessible to
The primary aim of image recognition technology is likely to be the        users, but it could in particular be useful to foreign visitors who
eventual enabling of visual search the analysis of a given image,          would like to interpret our landscape in their own language.
and the feedback of relevant data to objects in the picture.
                                                                           A widespread adoption could also have an impact on any AR
The first mover in the space, and the likely de facto standard             directory-based services such as Layar, where the power of
product for usage of the technology, is Google Goggles, which              Google s ready-made search engine will outrun the hand-made
has been released on Android devices via Android Market, and is            data set required for a platform such as Layar.
scheduled for an iPhone release, and versions for other platforms,
later in 2010lxxix.
                                                                           Augmented Reality
                                                                           Augmented Reality, within a mobile context, refers to a view on
                                                                           the world through the viewfinder of the camera that is augmented
                                                                           through machine-generated imagery or information.

                                                                           There are numerous elements that go to create an AR
                                                                           experience:




                                                                      39                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
                                                                              use this location data to pull down from the data source
                                                                              info which is relevant to their current location

                                                                       Uses of AR
                                                                       Applications of AR are broadly divided between fun experiences
                                                                       for games, advertising or
                                                                       novelty value, and info
                                                                       experiences which help
                                                                       users find out more info
                                                                       about places, services etc
                                                                       around them.

                                                                       An advanced AR game is
                                                                       Sky Siege on the iPhone
-   Web data feeds                                                     3GS, which places
    Any web data can be turned into a graphical element                attacking helicopters over
    within the AR view. Typically it will be data that has some        the camera view which must then be shot down by the user. As
    kind of geographical reference point to make the rendering         the game also integrates with the compass, the user has to
    of it relevant to the user viewing it                              physically turn around to defend themselves.
-   Camera view
    The camera is clearly a key component of the experience            An example of an info
    to provide the backdrop and context for the machine-               service is WikiTude, which
    generated components                                               takes location-sensitive
-   Compass                                                            information from Wikipedia
    Although a compass is not required for all AR experiences,         and other sources and
    it adds an element of relevance and engagement due to              places it over the camera
    the view showing data in the right place in relation to the        view as a series of clickable
    user                                                               icons.
-   GPS Location
                                                                       The nature of these info
    Any phone with an on-board location system (whether it is
                                                                       services means that they can often be used as an attractive and
    based on GPS, Skyhook, LBS or any combination) can
                                                                       interactive gateway to access location-based information, which




                                                                  40                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
when requested via a click or touch, is then shown via the mobile           without having to rely on users downloading the app from
internet, or data-driven pages within the AR app interface.                 an app store.

Layar
A significant early mover in the AR space is Layar, a Dutch
company that has created a range of AR browser versions, and
an infrastructure for serving content into the browser dynamically
(Directgov concept pictured).

Two developments with Layar are making it a noteworthy player in
the brand and marketing space:

   -   It is being selected as the preferred AR route for brands, in
       partnership with handset manufacturers. For example in
       January 2010, Samsung usedlxxx the Layar browser as the
       vehicle to provide branded AR content and services from
       Barclays, lastminute, thetrainline and more, on its Galaxy
       Portal device (i5700)
   -   Layar have recently
       announcedlxxxi (though not
       named) a partnership with
        one of the top 3 mobile
       handset manufacturers to
       embed the Layar browser on
       future model releases. This
       is a significant move as it
       will increase the
       discoverability and therefore
       the user base for the
       platform (currently at about
       1m users globallylxxxii)




                                                                       41                 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Handset Segmentation
Here are some statistics relating to the current handset landscape
in the UK, as reported by ComScore M:metrics, Jan 2010.

Handset Manufacturer (OEM) share




Handset capability




                                                                     42   Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
MOBILE CHANNELS                                                           SMS
In this section, I will attempt to describe all the major channels
through which the public sector might deploy content and services
over the next two years, and any channels which, due to the early
nature of their development, are less certain to offer value, but
should remain on the stakeholder s radar for the time being.

The definition of mobile channels should not be limited to those
technologies and platforms traditionally defined as mobile. As
outlined in the opening section on Consumer Freedom, a channel
should be reasonably defined as anything that the user does on
his or her mobile device as part of their normal daily behaviour .

Therefore included here are such mobile newcomers as social
networks, location-based communities, IM and others. These
dual-play platforms, whose origins are from the fixed internet,
                                                                          lxxxiii
have now completed, or are making, their transition into native
mobile channels.
                                                                          SMS is a mature and universally deployed standard on all phones
One significant trend in the channel landscape is the extent to           in the UK, and thus along with voice is the only guaranteed
which Push mechanics (SMS, email, IM etc) are in the                      channel to create dialogue over mobile. As the chart above
ascendance. With an eye on the future, it may not be enough               illustrates, the public s love of text keeps growing despite the
simply to make your content available and expect users to find it         uptake of other mobile channels such as IM and mobile social
and use it. By incorporating channels and techniques through              networks.
which users request and are pushed content, or even better, if
                                                                          And as the second chart reveals, the usage of SMS, while
they can interact and converse with it dynamically, services can
                                                                          extremely high in younger demographics, is now spreading
be made more in keeping with current users mobile lifestyles.
                                                                          through to the older generation quickly, as they are taught to text
                                                                          by younger relations. Those aged 45-54 have now caught up with
                                                                          all groups younger than themselves, with 95% of people using
                                                                          SMS, and now the only remaining growth is in the over 55s.




                                                                     43                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
                                                                                     put off by IVR systems or the web, or those who do not have
                                                                                     English as a first language, can use text as a method with a low
                                                                                     stress-threshold to start using services
                                                                                 -   Natural
                                                                                     Consumers have long conversations with each other via text,
                                                                                     and it s a natural medium for a conversation see section below
                                                                                     on surveys
                                                                                 -   Immediate
                                                                                     Most people have their mobile on them at all times, and text can
                                                                                     often be used during the working day when the internet and
                                                                                     email can t
                                                                                 -   Extensible
                                                                                     A simple text mechanic can be the first contact between a
                                                                                     brand/service and a consumer, which then leads to various
                                                                                     options such as info via the mobile web, a follow-up call, a
                                                                                     content or app download, or integration with location and web
While customer usage of SMS continues to go up and up, it is
                                                                                     services
frequently under-used as a marketing and service provision tool,
and many of the key properties of SMS are not fully understood.               SMS for customer feedback
                                                                              Text is extremely effective for letting people give you their
In this section, some of these properties, and ways in which their
                                                                              opinions, and for doing research, due to people s inherent
usage might be increased, will be investigated.
                                                                              propensity to chat through text.
Unique properties of SMS
                                                                              This has been proven by a number of
The following are properties of SMS which should make it
                                                                              brands using text for survey work. Not
considered as part of any business comms and service strategy.
                                                                              only are SMS surveys cost-effective, they
   -   Cheap                                                                  can also take much greater survey
       At ~3.5p per message sent out, it s good value considering the         samples than a traditional focus group,
       near complete open rate. Email is cheaper to send, but with            and at a much smaller cost. By using 0p-
       open rates of only ~20% and click-throughs under 5%lxxxiv, it s        rated shortcodes, it can be ensured that
       not nearly as effective                                                the user takes part in the survey
   -   Non-threatening                                                        absolutely free.
       Many users, particularly those who are intimidated or otherwise




                                                                         44                          Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
An example of a business using this mechanic is Douwe Egberts,           Many businesses have implemented this type of SMS tool.
who after the launch of their Cafe Switch range, which                   Ocado, for example, reportlxxxv that since it has implemented its
incorporated a free sample campaign run over SMS, ran a survey           SMS tool, it has seen a number of benefits, including:
to gauge opinion and gather feedback. In this survey, 6,000 users
were asked to participate, through an outbound SMS. Of this                 -   Increased communication with staff which is quick and
base, 2,000 commenced the survey, which was 13 questions                        easy and strengthens day to day operations
long, each asked on a separate SMS, and over 1,700 completed                -   An effective tool to use to enhance levels of customer
all questions.                                                                  service, adding value to the service delivered

                                                                         Ocado have sent over 2.7 million SMS so far, and other
                                                                         businesses such as the RAC make similar use of SMS to manage
SMS for business                                                         their remote workers and mobile customers.
Text messaging remains one of the quickest and simplest ways to
get news, service updates and information out to a user base, and        A range of service providers such as Esendex and Infracast
the enterprise SMS space is one of the most developed, on the            operate in this space, but running SMS as part of the business is
supplier side at least.                                                  not often used by small businesses or tradesmen, and if a
                                                                         subsidised platform for business messaging was to be opened
Many businesses currently benefit from having SMS integrated             and promoted, it could have a significant effect on a large number
into their resource planning and customer communications,                of business customers.
particularly where staff are out and about, and communications
must be immediate and brief.                                             Consumer confidence
                                                                         Although consumer confidence in SMS has taken a few knocks,
                                                                         particularly with the Crazy Frog premium rate
                                                                         scandal and the well-publicised interaction TV
                                                                         issues in 2007, consumers are generally very
                                                                         trusting of quality brands that offer them an
                                                                         SMS service. This is to be enhanced by the
                                                                         work of trade bodies such as the DMA who have created the
                                                                         Mobile Safe mark to define services as being compliant and safe
                                                                         to engage with.




                                                                    45                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
MMS                                                                        Apple s virtually perfect end-to-end execution has seen the mobile
Picture messaging has endured many false dawns as the next big             app as the most coveted, and most talked-about brand asset of
thing in mobile, but without fanfare has arrived as one of the             2009, although not always the best understood.
network services most used by consumers.
                                                                           Apple s success was such that subsequently a host of players
MMS capability has crept up to around 80% of all UK devices, and           from the handset, operator and OS arenas have created me-too
29% of users are now using the camera on the phone to send                 app stores, generating a raft of options, format clashes, and
MMS.                                                                       general confusion which has complicated the marketplace, and
                                                                           clouded a clear route for deployment.
Despite this habit, few services have been created in any sector to
take advantage of this. The few commercial examples of this tend           This section aims to highlight the key metrics for the app stores
to be broadcast driven, such as the recent GMTV snow-picture               that are currently operational, and illustrate some of the benefits,
requests that received thousands of submissions.                           drawbacks, and unique properties of each.

The bulk price of MMS outbound to users remains at the ~15p                One of the undoubted truths of the apps future is that the stores
mark, making use of the channel relatively expensive per contact,          that survive and flourish will be those that meet the needs of the
and with the increased usage of the mobile internet, many                  developer meaning the ones that are able to generate revenue
commercial uses that might take advantage of MMS are simply                from consumer sales. An idea of the elements that must be in
sending URLs embedded in SMS. This price is unlikely to drop               place for this to happen follows:
unless significant demand starts to be made of the channel from a
wholesale perspective, and this seems unlikely due to the usage
of apps and the mobile web.



Mobile Apps and App Stores
The exponential growth of mobile Apps has been the most
celebrated development in the mobile landscape in recent years,
and established the app as a central feature on many phones,
with most smartphones now looking like imitations of Apple s app-
driven model.




                                                                      46                          Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Apple                                                                              downloading music, podcasts, and video through the
The release of the App Store into iTunes surprised virtually                       interface
everyone in the mobile world, to the degree that revenues from                 -   Developer support
the store were not included in the handset supply deal done with                   The iPhone SDK makes it relatively quick and painless to
O2, resulting in a significant missed opportunity for the operator.                write decent applications that maximise the capability of
Since launch, the App Store has provided some astounding                           the phone. Although developers regularly grumble about
statisticslxxxvi:                                                                  the apps approval process, the system ensures that only
                                                                                   clean and approved apps make their way to the public
                   Total App                             Apps                      domain, bolstering trust in the eyes of the consumer
 Apps in the                          Total app
                  submissions                        downloaded                    Easy billing
   Store                             downloads                                 -
                    (per day)                        per user/mon
                                                                                   Apple s real win was building the App Store on top of the
   159,611             683              3bn+              12.1
                                                                                   existing iTunes infrastructure. Not only does it mean there
                                                                                   are millions of registered credit card accounts, but
To go from a standing start, Apple has successfully completed the                  independence from network operator billing means that
circle of value above:                                                             Apple receive the full payment amount and can then share
                                                                                   with developers from a favourable starting point
   -   Great user experience                                                   -   Volume of Content
       Quite apart from having the best game-playing device on                     The favourable ecosystem means that many apps have
       the market, and incorporating features that were 2 years                    been created, thus furthering consumer choice, and
       ahead of the competition, the ease of downloading and                       enabling the apps for anything variety with which we are
       installing complex apps and games to the device means                       now familiar
       users have virtually no barrier to entry for individual apps.
       Even an app that is 200MB in size can be downloaded and              The success of the iTunes App Store shows no signs of abating,
       installed in less than 2 minutes                                     and as the ownership of the device spreads more widely across
       The usage of dual interface (mobile and PC) to browse                Orange, T-Mobile and Vodafone, we can reasonably expect to
       and download adds to the consumer convenience                        see volumes increase. The arrival of the iPad is also likely to bring
   -   Volume of users                                                      a raft of new content owners to the platform.
       With over 50m iPhone OS users worldwide, and over 65m
                                                                            However, it should be noted that while the demographic for
       iTunes users, there is significant scale built into the
                                                                            iPhone itself remains very selective, with the average owner
       existing infrastructure, and a ready-made audience used to
                                                                            earning way more than the national average, there is a large base




                                                                       47                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
of iPod Touch users who                                                       support these new devices . The big iPhone lessons for enterprise
download apps at a rate of                                                    are:
37%lxxxvii, higher than iPhone
owners. This is a significant                                                    -   It's more than just another device
demographic with a much                                                          -   It drives business culture change
younger base. Therefore the                                                      -   It gives employees freedom to choose their own tools
channel should certainly not be                                                  -   It changes the support model to self-service
ignored for campaigns wanting                                                    -   It is a new platform for delivering content and collaboration
to attract a young demographic,                                                      applications to an increasingly mobile workforce
provided the mechanic does                                                    Thus far, the business apps in the iPhone app store are primarily
not depend on the use of                                                      practical business tools such as Quickoffice Connect (pictured),
iPhone features such as phone,                                                which enables word processing and spreadsheets, time
GPS, compass etc.
                                                                              management tools, scanners, PDF readers etc. Big movers in the
                                                                              space include:

                                                                                 -   Microsoft Exchange
iPhone for Business
                                                                                     Enabling calendar and mail sync at all
The iTunes App Store has a wealth of apps created with business
                                                                                     times
users in mind, and with the increasing push of the network                       -   Salesforce
operators to sell the iPhone on corporate tariffs, this is set to                    Sales pipeline and contact tracking
increase. Over 20% of the UK mobile subscribers now access                       -   Oracle CRM On-demand
their email on their mobilelxxxviii, rising to 49% for business users,               Manages connection to a number of
so clearly there is a strong platform on which to build.                             business processes run by the on-
                                                                                     demand CRM product including
However, even before this has happened in huge numbers, there                        Business Approvals, Sales forecasts
are significant signs that Apple has penetrated around 10% of                        etc
small to medium sized enterprises, and 6% of business devices                    -   Silverware XpensTracker
are now iPhone.                                                                      A feature-rich expense tracker for the
                                                                                     corporate traveller
Forresterlxxxix reports: we will see growth in the mobile wannabe                -   MobileFiles Pro
user segment as employees bring their personal devices, such as                      A file management tool enabling users to read and manage
the iPhone, into work and expect organisations to develop ways to                    standard office formats




                                                                         48                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
   -   FlightTrack Pro                                                        Google take a share of 30% of app paid revenue from all sales,
       Synchronises with a TripIt account to manage flight itineraries        which are carried out via a credit card that must be entered at first
   -   Cisco WebEx                                                            usage. In this respect the opportunity for developers is similar to
       Lets users join web conferences and manages the resizing of            the Apple model.
       the experience for the small screen
                                                                              The rate of new apps being submitted to the Android Store has
With this array of services available from existing providers on the          been dramatic, and the rate of rise is also accelerating, meaning
device, it is clear that the iPhone is becoming more and more a               that Market now has significant momentumxci
part of the business life of the top section of the mobile workforce,
and is an ideal platform for business-focused tools.

However, the pricing model of Apple devices is, with the iPhone at
least, going to exclude them from the mass-market workforce.

Given the increased usage of apps for business, and the
enterprise sector focus on mobile working and always-on
information, a cross-OS mobile apps approach based on
syndication would seem a reasonable endeavour.



Android Market
Launched in October 2008, Market is a pre-installed app on
Android devices that gives users access to a range of free and
paid content from third party developers.
                                                                              Although the roll-out of Market has not been as smooth as that of
                    Total App                               Apps              the iPhone App Store, with software versioning, carrier ROMs
 Apps in the      submissions           Total app        downloaded           limiting the view that users have of apps and poor searchability all
   Storexc         to UK Store         downloads         per user per         affecting users. However, many of these issues appear to be
                    (per day)                               month             resolved in the new Android Market 2xcii, which takes a cleaner
    33,000          Ave ~180               n/a                8.7             and more iPhone-like approach to search.




                                                                         49                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Market does not support more than a very basic web search for            App World, but there is a particularly high proportion of utilities,
apps, so the on-device discovery route is key.                           productivity, and business tools.

The momentum that has been achieved already by Android                   A look at the most popular apps in the store gives a much more
Market, combined with the anticipated growth of the Android user         precise view on which content items are the most popular.
base and the wider demographic that will take it up, makes it a
serious candidate for a range of mobile apps in the near future.         Of the top 25 apps currently being downloaded in the store, none
                                                                         are business tools or utilities, with internet radio, IM, social
                                                                         networks, and YouTube viewers being among the most popular,
                                                                         clearly showing that even in the corporate market, users are
Blackberry App World                                                     adding content and personality to their phones.
                                                        Ave
 Apps in the       Countries         Daily app
                                                     downloads           Reception of the Blackberry App World has not been universally
   Store            served          downloads
                                                      per user           fulsomexciii, and has been rapidly overtaken in the eyes of
    ~6,000             180+            1.5m              12              developers by Android and of course iPhone. Additional problems
                                                                         for developers are caused by versioning between devices, and an
Blackberry App World was launched in April 2009, and has been            SDK that lags behind its competition. Also it is inevitable that with
made available for a wide variety of devices including the Storm,        devices that lack the fluent user experience of iPhone and
Pearl, and Curve.                                                        Android, the use of apps and games will be less compelling.

Category                  Number
Games                     1,218
Themes                    1,047                                          Nokia Ovi
Reference and             538
eBooks                                                                                                                    Av
                                                                          Apps in      Countries        Daily app
Utilities                                                                                                              downloads
                          488                                            the Store      served         downloads
Entertainment             357                                                                                           per user
Productivity              257                                               n/a           180+            1.5m             12
Business                  218
                                                                         Nokia, like many handset manufacturers, are keen to take a slice
While it is interesting to note that along with most other app           of the mobile content pie, and to add value to their devices
stores, games represent the largest number of apps in Blackberry         through acquisition and embedding of this content.




                                                                    50                           Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Nokia are widely viewed as having failed in this area up to now, as         for it, and if the platform can make them money. There is much
Google and Apple s App Stores have taken the limelight.                     debate in the mobile developer community around whether Ovi
However, Nokia s branded content service Ovi is being set up to             will be able to do this, and the Symbian developer community is
correct this.                                                               substantially less active than those of iPhone and Android.

Ovi has four main components: Messaging, Music, Maps and the                The Nokia Ovi store will be embedded on all major Nokia devices
Ovi Store.                                                                  moving forward, thus providing an on-device content hub for
                                                                            Nokia users. Should the user experience of Ovi Store continue to
The Ovi Apps store, launched in May 2009, is an apps store                  increase, and should Nokia realise the potential scale that their
where developers and content owners can place apps, ringtones,              device reach gives them, then Ovi Store should become a major
wallpapers and more, and either charge or distribute for free.              player in the mobile apps and content space. When this is viewed
Initial versions of Ovi met with a very mixed reactionxciv, but the         alongside Nokia s continuing success in the lower end of the
platform has since improved, and a range of content has been                market, this is a powerful argument for Nokia devices as a major
launched. Recent global stats indicate the                                  communications platform for the government s digital inclusion
platform is gaining some tractionxcv:                                       remit.
   -   New users increase 100% per
       month for 2010 to date
   -   In the UK, apps and games are the                                    Samsung Bada
       core user focus, with traditional                                    For details on the launch of the Bada app store, see earlier
       mobile content such as ringtones                                     section under Bada OS.
       and logos larger in areas such as
       Russia
   -   Skype app released on to Ovi in                                      Windows Marketplace
       March 2010
                                                                                    Apps in the         Countries         Revenue
   -   UK is one of Ovi Store s top 10                                                Store              served            share
       countries                                                                       250                 29              70/30
   -   Content submitted from over 80
       countries
                                                                            Although Windows Marketplace is currently very small, the picture
While these stats are strong and show growth, an app store can              is in part deceiving, as there are over 18,000 apps also available
only be successful if there is a body of developers willing to build        for the platform via third party app stores, or direct from the




                                                                       51                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
developers. Microsoft manage a rigorous testing procedure to                APIs such as location, billing, messaging, call control, and access
ensure quality of their apps on the Marketplace.                            to user information such as profile and demographic.

So although this is currently a small channel to a limited market,          Litmus is platform agnostic and allows app promotion across any
the importance of apps to Microsoft is well known, to the degree            OS type. As of this moment Litmus has small volumes in
they have published guidelines for porting apps over from Apple to          comparison to mainstream OS-based app stores, but shold it
Microsoft platforms.xcvi                                                    achieve traction across the Telefonica footprint, and have a clinet
                                                                            embedded across O2 handsets, it could start to develop some
Network Operator Stores                                                     interest from consumers, and then developers to create a raft of
In the rush to launch app stores created by the launch of Apples            content.
version, a number of UK operators took similar initiatives.

Vodafone 360                                                                Orange App Shop
The biggest of these in terms of consumer visibility was Vodafone           The Shop is a newly launched effort from
360, billed as bringing your phone, email, chat and social network          Orange to sell apps to their customers,
contacts together in one place. Launched in 2009 to great                   available across the UK, France, Spain and
fanfare, and with a good new device from Samsung, the platform              Belgium. The Shop can be reached via
has nevertheless encountered an extremely mixed receptionxcvii,             WAP, app or web. Currently only premium
with many commentators suggesting it has not been thought                   downloads are supported, which limits its
through from a user perspective and that it fundamentally fails to          usefulness for marketing or public sector
offer the fluid and open user experience now demanded by                    usage. However, should this change, the
consumers.                                                                  product is a well-managed and attractive
                                                                            offering to Orange customers.
However, Vodafone have fought back by announcing salesxcviii of
300,000 devices globally, and 7,000 apps available to download.

O2 Litmus                                                                   Independent App Stores
Having just reached its first birthday, O2 s Litmus is o2 s offering        While much attention has been given to the premium brand app
to the developer community. It takes a learning approach to the             stores run by Apple and Google, it is worth noting that there are
apps world, and aims to work collaboratively with developers to             older and more established players already operating in the space
give them access to the O2 customer base. The main feature                  that can deliver excellent results for government campaigns.
offered by Litmus that is unique is the access to a set of network          These app stores are independent of manufacturer and network




                                                                       52                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
operator, and will deliver any kind of content for any kind of               -   2,300 devices covered
phone.                                                                       -   26m unique users per month globally
                                                                             -   Optimised search rankings
The key players in this space currently are GetJar, Mobango, and             -   High levels of repeat downloads
Mobile9, and an illustration of GetJar follows to demonstrate the
scale and power of the channel.                                           Although GetJar has until now operated as a standalone entity,
                                                                          2010 will see it expand through a program of white-labelling called
GetJar                                                                    App Catalogue Express, to offer its content to network operator
Promoted as the world s largest cross-platform app store, GetJar          portals, and this is already live with 3 UK and Carphone
delivers apps for any device even iPhone apps are promoted via            Warehouse.
links through to the iTunes App Store.
                                                                          A partnership with a business like GetJar is the only realistic way
The bulk of the GetJar catalogue are Java apps, and this explains         for operators to bring a massive apps catalogue on to their
the enormous uptake of the platform by younger demographics,              content portals, and while it competes with
as illustrated in the chart below, taken from their 2009 user             their nascent offerings in the UK such as
survey.                                                                   Betavine and Litmus, the operators are likely
                                                                          to see GetJar or a competitor as the best way
                                                                          to serve apps for feature phones and retain
                                                                          those customers on operator content portals.

                                                                          A case study of a government campaign on
                                                                          GetJar is the Pocket Beatz app built for the
                                                                          Knife Crime campaign It Doesn t Have to
                                                                          Happen by Mobile Interactive Group. The app
                                                                          was seeded to numerous app portals, and
                                                                          GetJar has so far delivered over 73,000
Due to its heavy usage by, and rich content catalogue for, feature        downloads at no media expense.
phones, GetJar and its competitors are an excellent route to reach
a young demographic with rich smart content.

GetJar has seen downloads grow over 300% in the past 12
monthsxcix, with:




                                                                     53                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
The Wholesale Applications Community                                          -   The experience must be browser-based
One of the major announcements from Mobile World Congress in                  -   It must be downloaded over an internet connection
Barcelona in Feb 2010 was the creation of the WAC. Its members                -   It must make significant usage of the features of a mobile
include most of the world s network operator groups and some                      device and give a dynamic experience (ie. not just
device manufacturers, and its mission is stated as to create a ...                rendering flat HTML pages, which is a simple mobile
community that will establish a simple route to market for                        internet site)
developers ... This alliance will deliver scale unparalleled by any           -   It should use components of HTML5 to provide an
application distribution ecosystem in existence today.                            experience not possible on the regular mobile internet
                                                                              -   It is likely to make use of the Bondic runtime APIs
While the WACs claims that it will enable developers to create
one version of their application that can be used on multiple types        Apps or Mobile Web?
of devices and operating systems (such as Symbian, Android,                The notion of web apps, or apps that perform app-like functions
Windows etc) are fanciful in the extreme, what is potentially              but within a web browser, have caused considerable excitement in
interesting is the promise of global network APIs that could enable        terms of resolving the argument about Apps v Mobile Web.
apps to utilise network operator functions such as billing,
voicemail, SMS and more.                                                   Many who argue against the use of apps feel that the mobile app
                                                                           landscape is too fragmented, that the cost of deploying apps to
To achieve any of its objectives, the WAC has an uphill task               multiple platforms is too expensive, or that by using apps you are
ahead to unite the aims, objectives and platforms of the global            discriminating against the non-
operator community, and thus feeling in the industry is that while         smartphone audience.
the WAC s spirit is noble, it is unlikely to deliver much to the
market in the next 2-5 years, during which time the focus on apps          The counter-argument is that the
may well have expired in favour of mobile web apps.                        mobile web cannot provide a rich
                                                                           gaming experience, that the
                                                                           content of typical XHTML pages is
                                                                           extremely flat and unattractive,
Web Apps                                                                   and that the mobile web cannot support dynamic or offline
                                                                           experiences.
Definition
There are significant differences of opinion around what                   Web apps should in theory marry up these elements, as HTML5
constitutes a mobile web app. For the purposes of this paper, the          sites can support much richer experiences, and finally get around
best definition is:                                                        Apple s refusal to support Flash in its mobile apps and browsers.




                                                                      54                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
It will also permit functional gameplay, as in this early example of        HTML5
Mario Kart being written entirely in HTML5.                                 The completion of the HTML5 specifications are not to be
                                                                            completed until 2012, but many components are available to use
Roll-out                                                                    now, or are available but only on some devicescii. Therefore the
The elements that go to create a web app are varied, and will               use of some components is possible now, and these must be
arrive at different times, making it difficult to forecast when true        looked at on a case-by-case basis
mobile web apps will be viable.
                                                                            Summary
Browsers                                                                    With so many unknowns around the full capability and timescales
Compatible browsers exist on most smartphones, including all                for deploying true mobile web apps, a strategy for implementing
iPhone and Android devices. However it is unlikely that low-end             them must be approached with caution.
feature-phones will support the functionality, so the advent of web
apps will require a separate versioning process from mobile web             Many in the games community are taking the approachciii that to
                                                                            maximise the benefit of the devices available, mobile apps are the
Bondi standards                                                             best strategy for the next 1-2 years, with a gradual move to
This set of standards will enable mobile web apps to emulate the            browser based experiences as devices catch up with the new
capability of downloaded apps by interfacing with any elements of           standards and languages of the mobile web app. However, for
the handset hardware. Bondi encompasses a set of APIs that can              non-gaming information-driven services, that do not rely heavily
control and respond to device elements and states such as:                  on hardware features, a syndication approach is recommended,
                                                                            which can feed into both mobile web and application solutions.
    -   Flight mode
    -   Battery status
    -   Camera presence
    -   SIM card details                                                    Mobile Web
    -   Bluetooth hardware                                                  The growth of the mobile internet is likely to be one of the most
    -   Signal strength                                                     significant developments in our digital evolution this decade.

Bondi is not yet implemented on many handsetsci, so the roll-out            While use of the channel has remained sluggish throughout the
of highly functional web apps is dependent on this, or a rival              noughties, it is widely thought that we are about to reach a tipping
standard, being deployed by device makers.                                  point in adoption, sparked by:

                                                                               -   Devices
                                                                                   The range of smart devices in the market, particularly the




                                                                       55                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
       iPhone, have made the experience of using the mobile                and a roll-out of smartphones at lower prices.
       web simpler and more pleasurable
   -   Connectivity
       The deployment of 3G and 3.5G networks to much of the
       population has led to a wider array of content formats, and
       faster download speeds
   -   Content
       Increased usage of the channel has led major content
       owners such as the BBC to create specific mobile sites to
       service the mobile browser. Another key content driver to
       the mobile web has been the social networks (see below)
   -   Price
       The growing number of all-you-can-eat data contracts that
       generally accompany a smartphone purchase is removing
       cost restrictions from mobile browsing

These factors have caused a virtuous circle which have led to
mobile outpacing PC growth globally. In 2009 1.2bn mobile                  Usage Habits
devices were shipped, 20% of which had full internet browsers on           Mobile is often thought of as a device that is mostly used when
board. Over the same period 200m PCs were shipped.civ Analysts             out and about. However, successive studies have proved this not
forecast that more people will connect to the internet via mobile          to be the case. One example is Orange s Exposure2 survey which
devices than through desktop PCs within 5 years.cv                         found that of mobile media consumers:

In the UK, there are now 18.9m unique users on the mobile web                 -   87% use mobile media at home
(around 1/3 of the population), and half of men between 18 and 44             -   73% use it when out and about
use their mobiles to go online.cvi                                            -   48% use it when at work
                                                                              -   47% use it on buses or trains
An analysis of youth mobile trends (pictured) shows that although
the channel is growing steeply for over 18 s, the habit has yet to         In addition, usage during the various dayparts produced
form among children, although it is reasonable to expect that this         interesting results, with mobile being the most consumed media
will change, subject to better data deals on pay-as-you-go tariffs,        channel between the hours of 12pm-4pm, indicating that many
                                                                           people are using it as a discrete browser channel while at work.




                                                                      56                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Those who do become mobile browsers do tend to become                         Rendering techniques
habitual users:                                                               The standard technique for the rendering of content to the mobile
                                                                              internet is through a mobile Content Management System. The
   -   81% using it once per week or more                                     mobile CMS has the following primary characteristics:
   -   46% using it daily
   -   35% using it weekly                                                       -   Built-in and constantly updated database of mobile device
   -   19% using it less often                                                       user agents, which includes information on screen size,
                                                                                     download and content rendering capabilities, bearer
                                                                                     capability and so on
Free web browsing                                                                -   Asset optimisation, allowing all content to be rendered to
A recent development from the operators is the ability to eliminate                  the correct format for the individual device on the fly, so,
data charging when browsing certain sites through the white-                         for example, small-screen devices on a 2.5G network will
listing of the site URLs.                                                            be served images or video in a smaller format than a 3G
An early case study of this technique was created by Marks and                       smartphone
Spencer, who used it for their Christmas 2009 campaign featuring                 -   Feed ingestion so that when content is pulled in, it can
Wallis and Gromit downloadable content. They experienced a                           be rendered automatically, ensuring that the mobile site is
20% uplift in usage of the site when the free browsing was                           always up to date, and minimising any manual
promoted. Network operators also venture that this uplift can be                     maintenance of the mobile site
significantly higher where it is featured prominently in the creative.           -   This set-up generally requires routing rules to be placed
Where 62% of consumerscvii still cite download charges as one of                     on the web server to detect mobile devices, and route
their primary concerns with the mobile web, this should be a key                     them to the mobile site instead of the full web version
tool in extending the reach of mobile sites across demographics
who are less confident in the medium or who are more price-
sensitive.



Emerging Best Practice
A range of techniques and creative approaches have emerged in
the design and promotion of mobile services.




                                                                         57                        Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
                                                                            -   Hero Content
                                                                                The sites feature hero banners showing the content that
                                                                                the brands most want to highlight at that point in time. This
                                                                                could be service improvements, a current marketing
                                                                                campaign or news. Due to the restrictions of the small
                                                                                screen, there is clearly less opportunity for the user s eye
                                                                                to wander across multiple options, therefore it is imperative
                                                                                to get the user to the content they need as quickly as
                                                                                possible
                                                                            -   Branding
                                                                                Although these are mobile sites, there is no need to
Knowledge of, and implementation of mobile CMSs is one of the                   reduce the visual impact in fact a decent mobile site can
factors holding up the widespread delivery of mobile sites in the               be more impactful than a web site if it s well-designed.
UK.                                                                             Even large graphics can be degraded to require little
                                                                                bandwidth
Content                                                                     -   Standard navigation
Barclays and Shelter sites both show some of the characteristics                Underneath the tactical components, repeat users of the
of a useful and well-designed site:                                             site can find common functions
                                                                            -   Search
                                                                                An effective search or FAQ system can save the user
                                                                                valuable clicks. Generally the average browsing session
                                                                                for mobile is much shorter than online, therefore it is
                                                                                imperative that that the search is effective in giving the
                                                                                right results



                                                                         Promotional techniques
                                                                         As with any web service, a mobile site will prove ineffective unless
                                                                         traffic is driven there.




                                                                    58                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
The most effective traffic driver, as in the online realm, is likely to        departments. Thus a user searching for Job Centre , will be
be search. Mobile search volumes are increasing rapidly year on                routed through the www.jobcentreplus.gov.uk website, and will be
year, but are forecast to quadruple by 2012cviii.                              unlikely to find the Directgov job search.

                                                                               Status of mobile web serving in the UK
                                                                               While users have been rapidly increasing their traffic on the
                                                                               mobile internet, the service provided to them on their mobile
                                                                               devices by brands, retailers, the public sector and virtually every
                                                                               organisation with a web site, has been sorely lacking.

                                                                               An excellent example of this is the retail sector. GSMA statistics
                                                                               show that of the top 15 retail sites accessed by mobile browsers in
                                                                               the UK, each receiving over 20,000 unique visitors per month,
                                                                               only one (Amazon) has provided a mobile-specific version of its
                                                                               site for users.

A recent development in the market has seen Google cease to                    In the public sector, the situation is little better, with the following
promote mobile services delivered to mobile devices up the                     sites failing to work on mobile:
rankings. Therefore a key consideration for any brand wanting to
maximise the traffic delivered effectively to their mobile service                 -   NHS Choices
must be the harmonisation of their search strategies across the                    -   Business Link
mobile and online sites, and the effective handover of traffic from                -   Passport and Identity Service
not just home pages, but from deep-linked content pages within                     -   Job Centre Plus
sites.                                                                             -   Border Agency/Immigration
                                                                                   -   Department for Work and Pensions
The ideal scenario is for all pages of an online site to be replicated             -   HMRC
across mobile, and for each page to judge the device and render                    -   DVLA
the site appropriately.                                                            -   National Lottery

The situation with UK government is more complex, as many of                   Apart from on Directgov and the Citizens Advice Bureau, the
the mobile provisioned services and info points within Directgov               mobile channel, and its millions of users, appear to be firmly
mobile are routed through the full web sites of the government                 sidelined and excluded from digital public life. An integrated cross-




                                                                          59                           Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
departmental approach to this might enable interactions with                  Video and TV
millions of citizens over the coming years which, as things stand,            Mobile TV has yet to develop into a significant channel in the UK.
will be denied them.
                                                                              There are three routes through which the service could develop,
                                                                              which are outlined below.

IM                                                                            Broadcast Transmission
While IM has grown significantly in other parts of the world, such            Using traditional broadcast technology, TV is transmitted directly
as the MXit platform in South Africa, it has so far failed to make its        to a receiver in the handset. The user can then choose what
long-prophesised impact on SMS as a major mobile chat channel.                channels to view in real-time.

However, this is not to dispute the emergence of the channel                  The standard selected for mobile TV in
Windows Live Messenger is already used on the mobile by over                  western Europe is DVB-H (Digital Video
2.6m users in the UK.                                                         Broadcasting for Handheld). Although initial
                                                                              trials were conducted around the technology
BBM (Blackberry Messenger) has surprisingly                                   in Oxford in 2005-6, the development of the
been discovered by a growing youth                                            channel has been held up by the lack of
demographic (see earlier section on RIM).                                     available spectrum in the UHF frequency,
Attracted by the promise of always-on chat                                    and this will not be available until the analog
and the avoidance of SMS charges, tribes of                                   TV signal vacates this part of the spectrum.
teenagers have been forging separate BBM
communities. These totally niche audiences                                    In anticipation of this happening over the next
have not been used for any marketing                                          two years, some early TV-enabled handsets
campaigns yet but could certainly be reached                                  such as the Nokia 5330 (pictured) are to be
through innovative bot campaignscix.                                          released in the UK through 2010. However, there are no firm
                                                                              plans for national rollout of mobile TV.
Also, web-based IM systems and aggregators such as eBuddy
are moving into mobile. eBuddy is one of the most distributed                 With DVB-H rollout in limbo, it is possible that handset
Java apps globally, with over 42m units distributed via GetJar, and           manufacturers will simply bypass the mobile TV standards, and
the iPhone version hitting the top 10 in most national iTunes                 begin embedding digital TV decoders into devices, that simply
stores.                                                                       display programming from the regular DVB-T signal that already
                                                                              powers Freeview throughout the UK.




                                                                         60                          Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
At the moment there are few plans among the major                             communications options on Facebook (like voice/video chat and
manufacturers to embed DVB-T in their devices, and this is largely            other services) continue to rise.
due to concerns over battery life within devices.
                                                                                 -   During the course of the year, the number of Facebook
Cellular Transmission                                                                mobile users has risen to 100m monthly users globallycxiii
Despite the fact that the operator networks are hugely burdened                  -   GSMA Mobile Media Metrics report that in December 2009
by the current levels of data traffic, and previous failures of mobile               alone, 5 million people in the UK spent 2 billion minutes
TV effortscxa number of new services are now emerging over the                       between them on the mobile web version of Facebook,
cellular networks.                                                                   making it the number 1 site ahead of the network operator
                                                                                     portals, BBC, Apple, Microsoft and Nokia
Prime among these is Sky Sports, where viewers can watch                         -   1/3 of 16-35 year older access Facebook and Twitter via
channels over 3G that are compressed using the H264 format.                          their mobilecxiv
Numbers are relatively small at the moment, but the service is                   -   Sites are available for regular mobiles, touchscreen
proving relatively resilient so far, and performed well during the                   devices, and apps for everything from the iPhone to
recent Champions League games.                                                       Windows Mobile to Sidekick and Nokias.
                                                                                 -   They have also benefitted from over 40m downloads of
Three have also launchedcxi a subscription video on demand
                                                                                     their java bookmark on GetJarcxv.
service with a range of programs available with pause, rewind and
                                                                                 -   ½ of Facebook s 400m users have used mobile products
resume functionality.
                                                                                     at some point
                                                                                 -   SMS service available on 80 operators in 32 countries
                                                                                 -   Mobile users are twice as engaged as web users, with
Social Networks                                                                      double the page-views, interactions, consumptions and
                                                                                     productions
Facebook
The rate of growth of the social networks through mobile channels             Future Strategy
has been astonishing through 2009.                                            Facebook s strategy is to be integrated into the core device
                                                                              operating systemcxvi, rather than to sit on the device superficially
Of these, according to Morgan Stanleycxii, Facebook has already
                                                                              as an app or mobile web site. Their belief is that should operators
become the primary way for millions of people to stay connected
                                                                              and OEMs make this step, it can become a compelling
and Facebook s lead is likely to be extended as more consumers
                                                                              differentiator over user handset choice. By doing so Facebook are
use increasingly powerful mobile devices, and the




                                                                         61                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
hinting at the possibility of Facebook-                                    Location-based Communities
flavoured handsets, with in-built OS-driven                                A growing trend among consumers is a mash-up of social
modules for contacts, status, location and                                 interaction, UGC creation, and location called the Location-Based
more.                                                                      Community. The principle players in this space are likely to be the
                                                                           newly announced Google Buzzcxviii, and Foursquare. This section
An example of a half-way version of this that                              will illustrate Foursquare in some detail to outline how these
illustrates how Facebook want to embed their                               communities are beginning to work.
service, is the current version of Facebook for
iPhone, which syncs Facebook profiles and                                  Foursquare
pictures directly into the iPhone (and Outlook)                            Billed as helping you find new ways to explore your city, meet up
contacts.                                                                  with your friends and let you earn points and unlock badges for
                                                                           discovering new places, doing new things and meeting new
Another development is the new Facebook Zerocxvii, a text-only             people , Foursquare is essentially a mobile social network and
version of Facebook Mobile. The aim of the service is to enable            casual game, that revolves around the tagging and enhancing of
operators to offer a version of Facebook without having to charge          the real world by its members.
for data; also this data is heavier and increases the weight of on
the network. While this is a commercial play from Facebook to
embed their services deeper into the MNO s D2C offering, it will if
promoted by the operators have the by-product of increasing
Facebook Mobile traffic (and hence mobile web traffic generally)
in younger more cash-strapped demographics who are familiar
with social networking but don t want to pay the data charge
normally associated with it.

Summary
With its huge and massively-growing global audience, and the
addictive nature of its service, Facebook should be seen
alongside Google as one of the major engagement channels for
mobile consumers over the next 5 years, and any content and
service offered through the mobile channel should be scoped with
a view to how it can be serviced, marketed, or otherwise
propagated through the Facebook mobile channel.




                                                                      62                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Users begin by signing up to the service, and                              whoever the current Mayor is. However, more
can then invite any of their Facebook or                                   embedded campaigns are emerging, such as
Twitter contacts to be their friends on                                    the one illustrated for Kaffeine, which
Foursquare. From this point, the user can                                  capitalises on users checking into sites in the
see where their friends are and what they                                  vicinity of Kaffeine, and serves them a full-
are doing, both in the form of active updates,                             page promotion of their offer dynamically.
such as iPhone notifications and on their
mobile app.                                                                Also Foursquare is now promoting brand
                                                                           personas through the service. In the US these
As they go about their daily business, they                                include Marc Jacobs, New York Times, Zagat,
then check-in to venues, which are anything                                and Bravo TV, while in the UK Debenhams
from bars and cafes through to offices, public                             and Dominos Pizza are attempting to use
sites, trains and more. As users check-in, and create new sites, if        Foursquare as a customer retention tool eg
a venue doesn t already exist in Foursquare, they earn points              by offering free coffee for anyone checking in
which can contribute towards badges. If a user has visited a               on a Friday.
venue more than any other user, they are then designated Mayor
of that venue, until such time as another user ousts them.                 Future for Foursquare
                                                                           Although Foursquare has somewhere over 300,000 users
Users are encouraged to make comments about sites they visit               currentlycxix, its challenges lie in expanding beyond its current
                       which are then shared with future                   über-early-adopter usage into a channel with some scale, and in
                       visitors, and are shouted out to any                turning into an effective advertising channel without becoming a
                       other users in the immediate vicinity.              generic option for dispersing special offers, which would take
                       Also the user can post their check-ins,             away the shine it currently has for its user base.
                       Mayor-ships etc to Facebook and
                       Twitter.                                            Facebook s growth into the location sector, as expected to be
                                                                           announced at its F8 conference in April 2010cxx, will see
                         A range of options are available for              Foursquare APIs integrated more deeply into the Facebook
                         advertisers who wish to capture the               service, promoting a localised element to many more social
                         Foursquare demographic. Relatively                interactions, and recruiting a mass market user base to the idea of
                         informal campaigns can be run, such as            local networking.
                         local bars offering a free drink to




                                                                      63                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
The growth curve, and the fact that Google Buzz is launching into        Growth of mobile payment
the same space, gives the feeling that the Location-Based                Along with many of the other functions of the new mobile
Community is going to be a good space to place and advertise             landscape, payment is viewed as a channel with huge growth
products and services for the next couple of years.                      potentialcxxiii



Payment

What do we mean by mobile payment?
Mobile payment is the effecting of real currency transactions
through the mobile device.

Although the really big steps in adoption of this technology are
being made in the developing world, in countries such as Kenya,
where 10% of the national GDP goes through the local SMS-
banking service m-Pesacxxi, mobile payment is a much-hyped and
expanding field in Western Europe as well, although with a
different focus.

   -   Developing worldcxxii
       Provide a primary channel for essential mobile commerce
       between individuals, and to pay for goods and services.
       Main customer are otherwise unbanked individuals
   -   Developed world
       Provide an additional channel to interact with customers
       for urgent transactions, provide a useful service access
       layer with aim of retaining valuable bank customers




                                                                    64                       Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Target demographic for mobile payment services                          Both techniques have significant disadvantages for merchants:

                                                                           -   There are large revenue shares taken by the network
                                                                               operator, resulting in a low outpayment to the merchant,
                                                                               who sits at the end of a long value chain. A typical
                                                                               outpayment on a retail price of £1.50 might be around 90p,
                                                                               making this a payment method of last resort to many
                                                                               retailers
                                                                           -   Price points are fixed at intervals of 50p
                                                                           -   Top common price point is £10 (for PayForIt), although
                                                                               some operators (O2 and Vodafone) are bringing in more
                                                                               flexible price points, and raising the payment maximum to
                                                                               £30
                                                                           -   Separate commercial agreements and technical
                                                                               connections need to be made for each country
Types of Mobile Payment
There are a number of types of mobile payment widely used and
emerging in the UK, and this section will analyse the status and
future of each in detail.

   -   Operator billing
   -   Mobile web and in-app billing
   -   NFC payment                                                      PSMS has historically been the primary vehicle for payment, with
   -   Online account triggering via mobile                             the routine being very familiar to consumers for the purchase of
                                                                        mobile content, competition entries and votes, notably on
                                                                        commercial TV channels, and for charity donations. While PSMS
Operator Billing
                                                                        remains widely used, its growth as a channel in the UK has
This refers to the widely used technique of extracting payment
                                                                        reached a plateau, and many foresee operator billing as being on
from a consumer via their mobile network operator. This is
                                                                        the decline as new and more merchant-friendly techniques are
currently done in the form of Premium SMS, or via the relatively
                                                                        rolled out.
new cross-operator WAP-billing initiative PayForIt.




                                                                   65                        Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
PayForIt billing, while it has been mandated                           However, fuelled by the improvement of devices, and the
for all operator billing on the mobile web, is                         increasing numbers of major retailers implementing mobile-
not hugely popular among merchants due to                              rendered versions of their sites, this
its difficult consumer experience, which                               situation is improving dramatically.
involves clicking out of the retail environment
into an accredited PayForIt page (illustrated)                         Example of mobile web billing
                                                                       This example of an Amazon page shows a
Summary                                                                purchase about to be made through the
While operator billing remains the largest                             shopping basket. The credit card details
current channel for mobile payment in the                              have been remembered from a previous
UK, my belief is that both PSMS and                                    transaction.
PayForIt channels will decline in volume over
the next two years due to:                                             Example of in-app billing
                                                                       Mobile applications can also be used to
   -   Better commercial terms available on rival channels             facilitate credit and debit card billing. The
   -   Devices better equipped to handle credit card entry             main player in this area is Apple, whose
   -   Merchants making online payment available through               app store has the largest reach. Up until
       mobile/online account syncing                                   February 2010, Apple barred developers from building apps which
                                                                       utilised credit card billing, instead insisting on using the iTunes
                                                                       billing account to make any charges, with 30% of revenues going
Mobile web and in-app billing                                          to Applecxxv.
The secure billing of credit cards over the mobile web has been        However, although no official announcement has been made on
possible since the MIDP2 standard became widely adopted on             the subject, apps are now entering the app store that feature full
devices in the middle of the last decade, and mobile commerce          credit card billing, such as the Wagamama example shown here.
innovators such as MPP Globalcxxiv have been running such
services for some time.

However, the tedious experience of entering credit card details
through traditional feature phones was such that even network
operators declined to implement it on their portals, and such
services only ever achieved marginal adoption.




                                                                  66                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
                                                                          An example of a mobile payment terminal is the Barclaycard
                                                                          iPhone terminal, to be released in 2010/11. The merchant enters
                                                                          their iPhone into the device, which connects through the iPhone
                                                                          data port, and an on board app connects with the card reader, and
                                                                          transmits information over the air to complete the transaction
                                                                          through Barclaycard s core billing system.

                                                                          Summary
                                                                          Mobile Apps and the Mobile
                                                                          Internet are two of the primary
                                                                          growth areas for the next
                                                                          generation of mobile users, so to
                                                                          integrate billing mechanics into
Although iPhone is the main vehicle for
                                                                          them is an obvious and necessary
apps currently (see previous sections on
                                                                          step where payment is required.
OS and smartphones), credit card
payment can be run equally from any
other app platform. The Red Cross in the
US is currently running applications                                      NFC Payment
across Android, Windows Mobile and                                        NFC will constitute one of the most significant payment channels
Blackberry to raise funds for the Haiti                                   on mobile over the next 5 years, with Visa investing up to 200m
disaster.cxxvi                                                            in the technologycxxvii. See section on NFC payment within
                                                                          Developments in Smartphone Function.
Mobile Payment Terminals for Small Business
A new development is the launch of mobile payment terminals.
Aimed at small businesses and sole traders, the aim of these
                                                                          Online Account Triggering via mobile
devices is to turn the user s mobile phone into a payment terminal
                                                                          The final mobile payment technique is the use of a mobile trigger,
so that they can accept credit card payment quickly and easily,
                                                                          typically an SMS, to cause a payment to be made from a
thus ensuring rapid and reliable payment, and negating the need
                                                                          registered credit or debit card.
to send out paper invoices.
                                                                          Existing services include:




                                                                     67                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
   -   National Lottery                                                    Channel usage
   -   London Congestion Charge                                            Here are some statistics relating to the current channel utilisation
   -   Various car parking servicescxxviii                                 in the UK, as reported by ComScore M:metrics, Jan 2010.

                                                                           Usage of some mobile channels




As public services continue to move towards electronic billing,
having this form of mobile payment should be considered to offer
consumers choice. The Congestion Charge scheme has been a
particularly strong case study, with 23% of total payments arriving
via SMS.cxxix




                                                                           Analysis of Channels by age
                                                                           (eg. Of mobile social network users, ~25% are 18-24)




                                                                      68                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
MOBILE MEDIA
                                                                           Mobile Content
This section contains a brief look at the development of the mobile
                                                                           The evolution of mobile content might be generalised as having
content arena, in terms of the type of content that is being
                                                                           come in three waves:
developed and consumed on mobile devices, the strategies being
implemented by leading content owners, and how this content is                 -   Downloadables
to be discovered and monetised by both consumer charging and                       When the primary usage of the mobile data connection for mass-
advertising.                                                                       market consumers was the purchase of ringtones and logos
                                                                               -   Portals
                                                                                   The period when the network operators held 85%+ of the UK s
                                                                                   mobile internet traffic and grew content-rich on-deck portals with
                                                                                   licensed content from third parties
                                                                               -   Open Access
                                                                                   Content creators have taken control over their own destiny in the
                                                                                   mobile space and created a raft of own-brand products and
                                                                                   services to deliver their content in the form they feel is most
                                                                                   attractive or profitable

                                                                           This section will aim to illustrate the principles of the third wave of
                                                                           mobile content, into which we are now heading, by looking at two
                                                                           case studies, the Guardian and Sky, and taking from them the
                                                                           essence of their success and how they are planning to build into
                                                                           the mobile future.



                                                                           The Guardian
                                                                           Although the Guardian was not the earliest mover in the
                                                                           newspaper sector, it has certainly been one of the most
                                                                           successful and strategically focused in deploying its products and
                                                                           triggering consumer uptake.




                                                                      69                           Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Products up to 2010                                                       iPhone app
                                                                            Launched          Downloads         Price point       Distribution
Mobile sitecxxx                                                                  th
                                                                           Dec 15 2009         102,000           £2.39, no           All UK
                      Monthly         Monthly                                                                   subscription
   Launched                                           Distribution
                      Uniques       impressions
  March 2009           1.2m            9.5m             65% UK
                                                        12% US            The iPhone app was launched to provide readers with a premium
                                                                          experience, that they believed was worth paying for, that couldn t
                                                                          be served elsewhere on the digital portfolio. iPhone users sit at
The m.guardian.co.uk site was launched to enable the growing
                                                                          the very top end of the Guardian user base, and the business
number of readers attempting to access its online site to access
                                                                          belief is that these power-users should be
the content through a reasonable user interface for the mobile
                                                                           super-served .
device. This growth was led by iPhone users, who, like most other
mobile users, were not able to deal with the online site s large          The success of the app in engaging users
screen size and heavy flash content.                                      has been such that 50% of users open the
                                                                          app daily. iPhone requests now represent
The site pulls content from the Guardian s
                                                                          5% of the entire daily digital consumption,
core CMS, removes elements that are
                                                                          with longer sessions and more engagement
unsuitable for mobile browsers, and
                                                                          than any other platform. Plus these figures
serves it in a simple format that does not
                                                                          do not include use of the app in offline mode,
require significant downloads of data per
                                                                          so are likely to be even higher.
page.
                                                                          Working with Apple
The Guardian are continuing to invest in
                                                                          The Guardian received notable support from Apple during the
the mobile site and view it as being
                                                                          promotion of the application. There are a number of ways to
particularly strong for live events, and
                                                                          accelerate this relationship, which help to facilitate the goal of an
rapidly developing stories such as the
                                                                          iTunes App Store promotion:
election.
                                                                             -   Demonstrate that you are bringing a quality brand AND a
The site is monetised by advertising sold by mobile specialist 4th
                                                                                 best-in-class service to the platform that will be of real
Screen Advertising. As premium inventory with a high-end
                                                                                 benefit to iPhone users
demographic, the space is sold on a high CPM rate. There are
                                                                             -   Work closely with the Developer Partner Relations team
also Google AdWords and sponsored text links on the site.




                                                                     70                          Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
   -   Illustrate a roadmap of product development and a real                  Syndication techniques
       engagement with the channel                                             The Guardian s open platform architecture allows them to deploy
                                                                               content to multiple mobile platforms with relative ease.
SMS alerts
The Guardian has a small number of SMS alerts services,
although these are not seen as part of the strategic plan for
mobile moving forwards, the view being that it is just as easy to
log on to the mobile site or app to find out detailed information.
Urgent news is more likely to find the user through TV, Twitter or
the desktop browser.

Future Roadmap
The Guardian believe that anyone positioning themselves for the
future should be concentrating on the smartphone market, even in
lower demographics and less developed countries it is simply a
matter of when rather than if the smart devices reach these users.

Two main developments are foreseeable in the near future:

   -   Android
       With 120 Android devices believed to be in line for release in
       2010, this will be the next mass-market consumer apps platform,         As mobile platforms generally tend to accept API standards such
       and will match iPhone for reach in a year s time. Two Android           as XML/RSS etc, the deployment of a new app, site or OS
       devices, the G1 and the HTC Magic, are already in the Guardian          integration generally only required work on the front end,
       mobile site s top 5 browsing devices                                    minimising cost and delay on the data back end.
   -   iPad
       Unlike a number of American newspaperscxxxi, the Guardian               This syndication approach is critical to any content or service
       have no issues with Apple s billing model. The iPad should bring        provider wanting to deploy to the mobile channel, as with an open
       about a huge market for browsing on the sofa, along with a
                                                                               data architecture, many device readers are possible on the
       revolution in digital user interface and desktop design. Their
                                                                               consumer side.
       approach is likely to be another app version for iPad and a new
       version of the web/mobile site for the browser




                                                                          71                        Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Sky                                                                      However, the growth of usage of the mobile internet is not
Sky see mobile as a core part of their integrated ad offering and        necessarily benefitting the operators content offering in the same
are developing platforms around their content accordingly. News,         way as the off-deck sector has grown. A key development in this
in particular, is viewed as having the potential                         area is the iPhone, which instinctively encourages users to go off-
to one day surpass online usagecxxxii.                                   deck. O2 released the iPhone without a content offering fit for the
                                                                         device, so because iPhone is 10% of their base, that has had a
Sky s offering consists of news and sports                               predictable reflection on on-portal traffic and revenues.
content fed across the mobile web and
iPhone apps in a variety of formats. What is                             Mobile content providers who have seen revenues from the
notable about Sky s content and media                                    platform fall by as much as 40% year-on-year are focusing their
offering is the extreme peakiness of the                                 efforts on iPhone and Android, or seeking slicker international
traffic. For example, the iPhone app alone                               distribution through the independent platform-agnostic app stores.
can deliver in excess of a million users on a
Saturday, which by the author s estimate                                 Mainstream media owners are busily creating their own content
makes it by itself the biggest mobile platform                           offerings based on the mobile internet or
in the UK on that day.                                                   applications for various platforms. While the
                                                                         operators talk brightly of the future of their
                                                                         portals, other commentators liken the situation
                                                                         to the final days of the first-generation web
The operator as content provider                                         portals such as Compuserve and AOL, when
Until the recent market developments                                     users discovered that sites existed outside of
around the iPhone, smartphones, social                                   those walled gardens.
networks and Google, the UK networks
have been the dominant players in the                                    This is not to say that the operator portals are
mobile content space. Holding large and                                  dying out; this is clear from the statistics in the
profitable content portfolios of ringtones,                              following section on mobile advertising.
graphics, video and games available for                                  However, their focus is shifting away from
premium download, they have been the                                     content sales, and the assumption that they
first point of call for access to syndicated                             will be the first and only point in the user s
news and sports.                                                         mobile journey, towards a gateway approach.
                                                                         This is where the portal operates as a front-




                                                                    72                           Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
end to media partner deals, and as a generator for advertising              The next chart shows the channels that are being used to
inventory for products like O2 More. To survive in the new                  consume mobile content in the UK (figures are the % of mobile
marketplace, the portals will have to adapt and add value to the            content consumers who use each channel)
user s browsing experience.

An example of this kind of next-generation operator portal is
Orange s iPhone version of Orange World, (pictured) which
concentrates on promoting iTunes apps, presumably through an
affiliate deal, and promoting loyalty and utility services like WiFi
finder and Orange Wednesdays.

Content Analysis
The following chart shows the % of UK mobile owners who
engage in the following main content categories over mobile web,
SMS or in-app.




                                                                            Mobile Advertising
                                                                            As one of the youngest branches in the advertising tree, which
                                                                            only really began in 2007, mobile advertising has thus far been in
                                                                            a state of constant upheaval. Developments in 2009-2010 have
                                                                            continued at an alarming pace. However, with some consolidation
                                                                            of the major players and techniques in the industry, we are now
                                                                            able to see how the mobile advertising might be structured in the
                                                                            long term. Most in the media industry are confident of massive
                                                                            increases in the spend on mobile over the next 2 years, as
                                                                            investment catches up with the scale of consumer usage.




                                                                       73                        Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Mobile advertising so far...                                              race is developing between ad networks and media owners to
The two key tipping points in the development of the mobile               deliver them.
advertising landscape so far have been:
                                                                          Ad formats likely to emerge strongly over the next two years
   -   July 2008 the release of the iPhone 3G triggered a huge            include:
       rise in the usage of the mobile internet and mobile
       applications                                                       Expandable          Written in javascript or similar, an expandable
                                                                          banner              banner expands when touched to fill the entire
   -   2009 Google and Apple made bold moves into the                                         page on a smartphone. Expanables can be used in
       mobile advertising space through their purchases of                                    apps or in mobile web pages. They can bear
       AdMob and Quattro respectively. These acquisitions                                     embedded video, or click through to a phone call,
       demonstrated to brands and media buying agencies that                                  mobile web site etc
                                                                          Flash banners       A growing number of handsets an already support
       mobile was now a serious channel that warranted                                        flash banners, including the Nokia 5800, but they
       investment. Search is viewed by many players as the                                    are not yet being delivered by any major ad
       dominant force on mobile advertising of the future                                     network. Flash banners can support integration
                                                                                              with some onboard features such as the
The final quarter of 2009 has been reported by a number of                                    accelerometer or vibrate function
                                                                          Feed integration    Banners can be dynamically fed with content. This
players in the field as the best ever for mobile advertising, with
                                                                                              is starting to be used in the gambling sector for
some stating that the numbers for the period are double any other                             rapidly changing odds, but could also be used for
quarter of 2009. While this can be partly attributed to spend                                 Flu Alerts or anything else where a simple but
across the board recovering from the recession, it also reflects                              often-changing message needs immediate impact
                                                                          Location            The use of location-sensitive information within a
unprecedented usage of mobile by consumers.
                                                                                              banner, or the serving of an ad based on the
                                                                                              user s location
The pricing structure of mobile advertising deals has cemented            Image recognition   Contextual advertising next to visual and photo
from its early stages, where operators were charging up to £15            ads                 search results
CPM. Now premium operator inventory can generally be had for              Sponsored apps      Shazam is just one of many premium apps now
£6-8 CPM, with CPC on networks such as AdMob available from                                   open to deep sponsorship opportunities
30-40p.

Ad formats                                                                Operators as media networks
Many advertisers are seeking more interesting and innovative ad           Definitions of the terms:
formats to generate better engagement with users, and an arms




                                                                     74                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
   -   On-deck                                                                               Product              Detail
       Traffic on the UK operator portals: Vodafone Live/360, T-Zones,              O2       O2 More              SMS outbound contacts to profiled opt-in
                                                                                                                  users. Expect 1m customers to be opted-
       Three Today, O2 Active, Virgin Bites and Orange World
                                                                                                                  in by end of 2010
   -   Off-deck                                                                              O2 Active            WAP portal. 4-5m unique users per
       Any sites outside of the operator portals. Significant sites on                                            month. Exposure to banners and text
       mobile include the Microsoft mobile properties (Hotmail, IM etc),                                          links, video pre-roll
       Flirtomatic, Bebo Mobile etc                                                          Top-Up Surprises +   Advertisers can provide prizes and
                                                                                             Priority             rewards into these channels
                                                                                             iPhone Promotion     SMS sent to ~2m iPhone users to
While the growth of the mobile internet overall in 2009 has been                                                  promote new apps
stellar, the growth has been most significant in the off-deck space,              Orange     Orange World         WAP portal. ~3.5m unique users per
with search seeing a 260%cxxxiii growth from 2008 to 2009, fuelled                                                month. Banners, text links and takeovers
                                                                                             Orange Shots         Youth-focused SMS outbound contacts to
in large part by the iPhone, whose users perform 50 times more                                                    Monkey tariff customers. Reach as yet
searches than WAP users.                                                                                          unavailable
                                                                                             In-app advertising   Full screen banners, expandables etc in
The mobile operator decks still provide huge reach at the moment,                                                 app network
                                                                                 Vodafone    Voda Live            WAP Portal 3.3mcxxxiv unique users.
with their millions of monthly viewers, but media agencies are                                                    Banners, homepage takeovers, video pre-
seeing on-deck display as a shrinking part of their mix, and there                                                roll, sponsored search listings
is uncertainty over whether the online-originated display formats                            MMS mailouts         Early stage development of MMS clubs
                                                                                 Tmobile     T-Zones              WAP Portal 1.55m users per month,
will continue to work.                                                                                            banners, homepage links and takeover
                                                                                     3       3 Today              WAP portal 1.6m users per month.
While the networks ownership of the mobile internet space is                                                      Banners, icons, interstitials, nowlets
slipping away from the network operators, they have, for the time                                                 enhanced homepage icons, sponsored
                                                                                                                  listings
being at least, a significant part to play in the enabling of brands
and government services and messages to reach consumers.
                                                                                In addition to the current offering, developments of the operator
The core asset held by the network operators is customer data:                  product over the next year or so are likely to include further use of
the MNO holds all manner of data on their customers from their                  location, mobile apps, ad-funded operator services and picture
address, their bank, contract status, browsing habits, handset type
                                                                                messaging.
and inferred status, content preferences and much more. While it
has taken the operators a number of years to lay the foundations                The operators focus in terms of using customer data is to supply
for this effort, 2010 is seeing them enter the market in earnest.               advertising that has real value to their customers, so it is in their
The following is a summary of their offering as of early 2010:                  own interest to sign up to receive it. Media agency reaction to the




                                                                           75                            Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
operators new approach is favourablecxxxv, because operator data
was previously underutilised, and the qualification of leads that it
enables of great value to the advertiser. The model is built over
the success that the ad-funded MVNO Blyk was able to deliver in
terms of customer engagement for advertisers, through effective
targeting of niche youth markets.

While these efforts are as yet in their early stages, the operators
are investing significant resources in their success, and are
delivering some positive results. Should the operators continue to
grow their opt-in bases, enhance the targeting available, and
prevent users from becoming tired of receiving ads and offers, this
could be a reliable and effective way of targeting mobile users.

O2 More Case Study
Fitness First had trouble recruiting new members through the
difficult financial climate of 2009. A campaign was planned by O2
Media to target potential recruits on the O2 network and offer a
free 5-day pass to their nearest branch.

Targeting was done based on location those
who live near a gym, and those who had
expressed interest in wellbeing and sport. The
users then received a text offering the 5-day
trial to which they replied with their postcode
to receive the details of their nearest branch.

The campaign generated a response of 6.8%,
resulting in more than 700 new members for
Fitness First.




                                                                       76   Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
PORTRAITS FROM THE MOBILE WORLD OF 2013

Youth
Kat is 16 and is just starting her A-level studies. While older
brother Dan has left home, leaving her with just mum Bernadette,
she has the typical frenetic social life of a teenager which keeps
her constantly in touch with friends and classmates.

Her Phone
Buying her phone was a massive decision, as whatever she
chose, she knew she would be stuck with it for a whole year,
which is a long time at this age.

Eventually she went for the Nokia 5950. It was a choice between
this and the Blackberry, but now all the chat services are                  receives pictures, Facebook links and comedy animations over
connected she (or rather her mum) picked the cheaper one, it was            her IM client.
£49.99. She s connected via an Orange Anything Anytime                      Sometimes she will receive a text, but these are mainly from
contract, which gives you free data up to 1GB per month, which              national brands, she has signed up to, or shops in town sending
she never gets near. Calls are quite expensive once she gets                her special offers, which she scans through briefly. She will have
above her allowance, but she doesn t make that many.                        to remember which offers are good at the weekend.
It s a phone which has been around a while, but a number of her             She s on the mobile web a lot, although she doesn t often need to
friends have it, so she knows it will do what she wants. As soon as         punch in a URL. She is usually prompted by links sent from her
she got it, she made sure to install her MSN, email, and Bebo               friends, and has homepage bookmarks or apps for her regular
accounts, and synced up her friends. She also put in passwords              browsing sites Facebook, Hotmail and a few other communities,
for her home, school, and town centre WiFi networks.                        and uses Google for anything else she needs. She s not a mobile
Her mobile life                                                             gamer, but sometimes is caught up in web-games that she plays
Kat is glued to her mobile. She is frequently woken on schooldays           with her friends mostly on her mobile
by a clutter of chat requests via IM, which continue sporadically on        Music is a big focus, and she is registered with a number of free
the bus until they arrive at school. Although she does not yet have         streaming services which enable her to listen to anything anytime,
one of the 4G handsets, as 4G is not yet in her town, she still             rather than storing thousands of songs on her hard disc.




                                                                       77                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Early Adopter
Dan is ten years older than Kat, and left for a job in London
straight from university. He flat-shares with three others the same
age, and works as an account manager at an IT firm. Although
he s only been there three years, it s probably time to be moving
up to a new role. Dan is rarely home, and with little responsibility
and a decent income, spends most of his time and money
socialising and going on trips.

His Phone
Dan likes to think that he knows about phones, and carries
considerable kudos at work for always having the latest device.
                                                                            this as his desktop sites are generally not that relevant when out
Currently this is the Google Nexus 4, which he spends some time
                                                                            and about.
configuring to his requirements, but is happy to do so. Dan used
to have the iPhone 4G, but now just uses that permanently                   The phone is of course a 4G device, which was one of the main
connected to the stereo as a music player for both owned and                reasons he bought it, and this enables him to watch all sorts of TV
streamed content. Dan is on an unlimited data plan, like everyone           services such as iPlayer 4G, Sky, and movies from LoveFilm to
else he knows. Why would you have restrictions when it s on all             which he has a subscription.
the time?
                                                                            His Nexus has a built-in NFC chip, and he has persuaded the IT
His Mobile Life                                                             guys at work to enable it as his office pass. He also uses it to pay
Dan s Nexus is a complete social tool and expression of who he              for his lunch in EAT, to pass his contacts to the few people he
is. An inveterate user of social networks for connecting with both          meets with similar devices, and as his season ticket pass at
mates and girls, he was delighted when Facebook acquired                    Premiership leaders Watford. Dan likes swiping his phone and is
Foursquare, as now there will be loads more people on the                   always on the lookout for more services that offer him this.
service. He has his social networks set up to alert him when his
friends are nearby, often leading to impromptu meet-ups, not to             Dan uses his phone a lot for work as well, particularly for expense
mention distracting him from his work.                                      tracking the Nexus has an intelligent receipt scanner that enters
                                                                            all details from a printed receipt into the system and creates a
Dan uses a mobile browser plug-in from Google to sync his                   spreadsheet on his PC at home.
desktop bookmarks with his mobile, but is thinking about ending




                                                                       78                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
Housewife                                                                    even sometimes use the mobile in
Bernadette is 55 has brought up Dan and Kat in a well-to-do area             the garden even though she could
outside Cannock. She struggles to keep up with the changes to                go inside to talk on the landline.
mobile phone, but has a willing helper in Kat as well as occasional
                                                                             Although she understands the
visits from Dan, though he often does more to confuse her than
                                                                             mobile internet, and other services,
help.
                                                                             she is not a heavy mobile user.
Newly retired, she devotes much of her time to her hobbies and               However, she is experimenting with
has a new-found energy. These include finally doing something                using the BBC Mobile site while
about the garden, contributing to a community newspaper and                  waiting for buses, after
taking dance classes                                                         encouragement from one of her
                                                                             peers, and a reassurance from her
Her phone                                                                    daughter that she could use it
In a strange reversal of roles, Bernadette has in the past                   without incurring charges.
benefitted from hand-me-down phones from her children.
However, due to an accident, she had to buy a new phone last                 She has a rarely used Facebook account on the web which,
time around, which she hopes will last a good few years this time.           although she doesn t know it yet, will become much more used in
                                                                             a few years when Dan s children arrive, and new videos and
She has a Nokia 5530, which was bought in conjunction with her               pictures are posted daily. Kat will also set up her mobile to view
daughter. Kat described it as ancient but approved generally, as             this Facebook content.
she is a Nokia user and knew she would be able to teach her
mum how to use it.                                                           Bernadette does not do much texting, but has got into the habit of
                                                                             using it for arranging meetings, so will frequently notify friends and
She has a Talkalot Pay Monthly tariff from O2 that allows her 600            family by text if she is running late. She also frequently texts in to
free minutes per month.                                                      TV-based competitions and charity donations.

Her mobile life
Bernadette s mobile life still revolves around voice and text. She
makes many appointments to see her local friends, and still
irritates her children by calling instead of emailing or texting. She
is confident that she knows how much she is spending and will




                                                                        79                          Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
CONCLUSIONS                                                                      common, but it is not used enough in product decisions. All
The current levels of usage of the various forms of mobile                       decisions about what products to create should be
technology are already at a level where mobile should be                         influenced by a thorough understanding of the audience
considered as a part of every service that is put to the public.                 that they will find on the devices in question
                                                                            4.   Syndicate data
The mobile future that has been outlined in this document shows                  By creating an open and accessible data structure,
that the usage of mobile is going to be richer, more widespread,                 multiple front ends, from apps to mobile web to bot chat
more universal and more essential than ever before.                              engines, can be built over it, saving huge amounts of
                                                                                 effort, and reducing both go-to-market lead times and cost
A mobile strategy should be                                                 5.   Make mobile equal
Overall recommendations                                                          With devices now so powerful and capable, the idea of cut-
I have ten recommendations for that arise from writing this report:              down service for mobile should be rejected. Of course
                                                                                 mobile sites need to be delivered according to best
   1. Start small get in early                                                   practice, but all the content a user expects online should
      Virtually all new technology developments start with a                     also be delivered through mobile, and should be
      small base of early adopters. Facebook, for example, had                   searchable as well
      5m users in 2005, but now has over 400m. Examples of                  6.   Promote your services
      technology in this report that may well hit significant growth             Mobile advertising is very effective, so ensure that budget
      include Android, Layar and mobile social networking. By                    is set aside to publicise your services. For example, no
      learning about platforms as they develop, it s possible to                 iPhone app should ever be created without supporting
      master them before they hit mass-market and deploy best-                   media
      in-class products                                                     7.   Know the landscape
   2. Iterate                                                                    Many players in the new mobile content landscape are
      Deployment to many platforms is cheap and quick. For                       hungry for premium brands to supply content for their
      example, an execution of the NHS data to Layar can be                      handsets or app stores. Take an open approach to
      done in a couple of weeks. Once live, user behaviour and                   personnel from handsets, networks and OS, and you will
      the success of promotions and conversion can be                            be rewarded with promotion and placement in devices and
      monitored and the product enhanced. Have a roadmap for                     media channels. Staying up to date with new
      product deployment                                                         developments, and the progress of those highlighted in
   3. Use devices for targeting                                                  this report is essential, and this report should be compiled
      The use of handset targeting in mobile advertising is                      annually to do so




                                                                       80                      Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
   8. Don t forget messaging                                                     -   Utilities
       SMS and MMS volumes are still growing, and SMS is now                         What useful tools can we put in the hands of our target
       so much more powerful as it can be used to link to the                        audience that will help them navigate the business, health
       mobile web and much richer content                                            and citizen service infrastructure in the UK?
   9. Keep up with devices                                                       -   Engagement
       Smartphones are no longer niche, minority, or top-end. All                    What compelling experiences can we create through
       mobile services should be geared towards a premium                            mobile to get home our message, and make our services
       experience on top-end devices, as before long the majority                    front-of-mind and approachable?
       of the market will be using them                                          -   Service
   10. Experiment                                                                    How can real transactions be made through mobile
       While it is possible to be fairly confident about which                       channels, and how can they be made easier and quicker?
       market developments have a big future, a completely risk-
       averse approach to mobile will result in a torpid product              The deployment strategy decisions are based on:
       delivery cycle which will deliver little to the public. Put out           -   Experience
       light products quickly to multiple channels and follow up on                  What is the end-to-end experience going to be for the
       the ones that work                                                            user? How can we make this both compelling and useful?
                                                                                 -   Platforms
                                                                                     What devices, channels and tools are relevant to our
Some ideas for e-Government                                                          demographic?
With objectives as important and as long-term as the                             -   Promotion
Government s, it s critical to take a strategic approach. Thus the                   How can we ensure what we create finds the target users
technology roadmap as defined in this document should go                             who need it?
towards three separate, but aligned, mobile strategies for
Directgov, NHS Choices and Business Link. All mobile products                 So bearing these in mind, some initial ideas for e-government
released by any of the three departments should ideally be used               might be:
to promote those run by the others                                            Citizen
While not wanting to pre-empt this work, the key comms                        Clearly there are plenty of avenues for the Directgov data to grow
objectives are likely to be:                                                  from its current mobile web incarnation across the new mobile
                                                                              formats available. A series of general Directgov apps across a
                                                                              range of OS would complement the mobile web site, and drive




                                                                         81                         Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
further mobile traffic to it. A general app would be aimed at all                   -   An NHS Healthy Living offering might comprise a rich set of
users and act as their on-handset gateway to e-government, billed                       content enabling users to enjoy taking the healthy option, and to
as everything you need in one app . In addition a range of                              get ideas, support, and community out of it. This would be an
specialist apps for certain demographics with themed messaging                          ongoing scheme with a high level of personalisation so that
                                                                                        users are constantly engaged with new ideas
would be useful. For example:
                                                                                        Incorporating many inputs from social media, particularly the
   -   There is a whole stream of youth-focused information that would                  pushing of local social content, which was lacking in
       help teenagers access public services more intuitively. An app                   Change4Life, users will be able to reach out to other users in
       that presents this info in a way acceptable to this demographic,                 their area and share both tips and local events such as jogging
       and covering anything from drugs to bullying to diplomas would                   routes etc
       make sense. Within the app it would use mechanics such as
                                                                                 Business
       chat-bots to ask questions, links to social sites for support, and
       mapping to find services near them                                        The regulatory and taxation aspects of opening a new business
       The app would be deployed to Samsung, Nokia and iPod Touch,               are a challenge to the most intrepid entrepreneur, so pushing the
       and would be promoted through a range of teen media, but also             wealth of information held by Business Link and making it more
       in partnership with Ovi Store and Bada on the handsets that they          accessible is critical. While it goes without saying that Business
       are releasing directly to the youth market                                Link must bring their entire website on to mobile, there are other
                                                                                 mechanics that might be used to help small businesses, eg:
Patient
With health of interest to absolutely everyone, but all sections of                 -   Most help is needed when a new business is set up.
the community having very different needs and interests, mobile                         Business Link might acquire the contacts for all new
would be ideal for a comprehensive push-messaging program                               directors registered at Companies House, and enrol them
based on tightly defined segmentation of the public, and run                            to the service. This would comprise:
through all mobile and digital channels, from a simple SMS to                               o   Push of SMS to which they can reply YES for free
advanced app mechanics.                                                                         updates, eg tax declaration deadlines etc, throughout
                                                                                                the business year
The aim of the scheme would be to engage all users with public                              o   App promoted in mail-outs and SMS. The app would
health messages relevant to them, so a huge data collection                                     embed key business year dates in their calendar, key
exercise would be required to recruit them. However, once                                       contacts (eg VAT Office etc) in their phone book, as well
enrolled, a series of targeted initiatives would be launched to                                 as carrying intuitive navigation for all the Business link
segments within the base, for example:                                                          data, that is constantly updated
                                                                                            o   Promotion of the mobile internet site and
                                                                                                encouragement to bookmark it




                                                                            82                          Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
THANKS                                                                                           xxii
                                                                                                       Interview Debbie O Sullivan, Senior Industry Manager, Government and Public Sector,
Many friends from mobile both old and new have assisted with the                                 Google March 2010
                                                                                                 xxiii
                                                                                                        Juniper Whitepaper, Smartphone, Smart Revenues
creation of this paper. In particular Dr Mike Short, Vice President                              xxiv
                                                                                                        IT Pro - http://www.itpro.co.uk/620557/mwc-2010-lg-mini-brings-syncing-to-feature-
Telefonica Europe and Honorary President of the MDA, was                                         phones - Feb 2010
                                                                                                 xxv
                                                                                                        The Register - http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/03/05/microsoft_pink/ - March 2010
crucial in informing and correcting many of the assumptions I held                               xxvi
                                                                                                        Engadget - http://www.engadget.com/2010/03/06/firstviews-95-android-windows-ce-
at the beginning of this process. Also, Oded Ran of Microsoft was                                pc607v-tips-a-craptablet-ic/ - Mar 2010
                                                                                                 xxvii
                                                                                                         YouTube Why you shouldn t buy an iPad in 30 seconds -
very generous with his time and opinion. Finally, Jo Garcia of the                               http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bvr82OigsZM
                                                                                                 xxviii
DMA Mobile Council gave freely of her time in proofreading my                                            Interview Steve Wing, The Guardian Feb 2010
                                                                                                 xxix
                                                                                                        BrandRepublic - http://www.brandrepublic.com/Global/News/987130/CondE-Nast-
copy, apparently with a fine-tooth comb.                                                         prepares-put-its-top-magazines-Apples-iPad/?DCMP=EMC-GlobalBulletin Mar 2010
                                                                                                 xxx
                                                                                                       AdMob Mobile Metrics Jan 2010
                                                                                                 xxxi
                                                                                                        Strategy Analytics -
                                                                                                 http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=PressReleaseViewer&a0=4870 Mar
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                                                                                                 mark/ - Jan 2010
                                                                                                 xxxiii
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   Daily Mail - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1239182/How-women-love-mobile-                 Guardian - http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/feb/16/vodafone-warns-google-
phones--boyfriends.html - Dec 2009                                                               power - Feb 2010
                                                                                                 xxxiv
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    NCH Mobile Bullying Report - 2005                                                                    Pocket Lint - http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/27936/acer-liquid-a1-android-photos -
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    Cellular News - http://www.cellular-news.com/story/30918.php - May 2008                      Oct 2009
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    Morgan Stanley The Mobile Internet Report Dec 2009                                           2009
                                                                                                 xxxvi
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outage - Jul 2009                                                                                http://www.pcworld.com/article/182310/droid_sales_and_the_android_explosion.html - Nov
vii
     Mobile Europe Issue 208 Feb/Mar 2010                                                        2009
                                                                                                 xxxvii
viii
     Interview - Andy Conway, Radio Networks Manager, O2 UK Feb 2010                                      MobileCrunch - http://www.mobilecrunch.com/2010/02/16/google-now-shipping-60000-
ix
    Interview Steve Nicholson, CEO, The Cloud March 2010                                         android-handsets-per-day/ - Feb 2010
                                                                                                 xxxviii
x
    ZDNet - http://news.zdnet.co.uk/communications/0,1000000085,39689360,00.htm July                      Interview Barney Durrant, Google Feb 2010
                                                                                                 xxxix
2009                                                                                                     Mobile Entertainment - http://www.mobile-ent.biz/news/33014/40-app-downloads-per-
xi
    Register Hardware -                                                                          G1-customer - April 2009
                                                                                                 xl
http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2009/07/14/future_wireless_tech/page6.html - June 2009                  Search Engine Watch - http://blog.searchenginewatch.com/090527-121934 - May 2009
                                                                                                 xli
xii
     European Communications -                                                                        AdMob Mobile Metrics Jan 2010
                                                                                                 xlii
http://www.eurocomms.com/online_press/113115/Mobile_WiMAX_Acceleration_Group_rel                       Which - http://www.which.co.uk/news/2009/01/lg-leapfrogs-motorola-in-mobile-phone-
eases_results_of_UK%E2%80%99s_first_end-to-end_live_trials.html July 2009                        marketshare-167072.jsp - Jan 2009
                                                                                                 xliii
xiii
     Interview Anthony Douglas, Head of Content, O2 Mar 2010                                           Engadget - http://www.engadget.com/2009/03/11/nokia-continues-to-hemorrhage-
xiv
     Phone Scoop - http://www.phonescoop.com/glossary/term.php?gid=310                           smartphone-marketshare-to-rim-app/ - Mar 2009
                                                                                                 xliv
xv
     Phone Scoop - http://www.phonescoop.com/glossary/term.php?gid=131                                 Musically - http://musically.com/blog/2009/10/15/comes-with-music-107k-users-
xvi
     Interview Barney Durrant, Google Feb 2010                                                   worldwide/ - Oct 2009
                                                                                                 xlv
xvii
      MEF - http://www.mobile-ent.biz/features/246/No-stopping-the-smartphone - Feb 2010               The Register - http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/10/27/see_keynote/ - Oct 2009
                                                                                                 xlvi
xviii
      MEF - http://www.mobile-ent.biz/news/36154/Gartner-reveals-2009-handset-sales-stats              ComScore Mar 2010
                                                                                                 xlvii
- Feb 2010                                                                                              Interview Keith Varty Services Marketing, Nokia Mar 2010
                                                                                                 xlviii
xix
     MEF - http://www.mobile-ent.biz/features/246/No-stopping-the-smartphone - Feb 2010                  Nokia Conversations - http://conversations.nokia.com/2010/01/26/nokia-x6-16gb-
xx
     ComScore MobiLens March 2010                                                                launched/ - Jan 2010
                                                                                                 xlix
xxi
     Survey of O2 and Orange online shops March 2010                                                   Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_Mobile - March 2010




                                                                                            83                                 Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
l                                                                                                   lxxvi
   Computer World -                                                                                          TechCrunch - http://techcrunch.com/2010/03/16/facebook-qr-code/ - Mar 2010
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9140761/Windows_Mobile_smartphone_sales_plu                  lxxvii
                                                                                                            Android Anarchy - http://www.androidanarchy.com/paid-applications.html - Mar 2010
nge_20_in_Q3 - Nov 2009                                                                             lxxviii
                                                                                                            Cnet - http://news.cnet.com/8301-13860_3-10444432-56.html - Feb 2010
li
    Engadget - http://www.engadget.com/2010/02/15/windows-phone-7-series-hands-on-and-              lxxix
                                                                                                           Tech Radar - http://www.techradar.com/news/internet/google-confirms-goggles-for-
impressions/ - Feb 2010                                                                             iphone-656489 - Dec 2009
lii
     Gizmodo - http://gizmodo.com/5472010/windows-phone-7-interface-microsoft-has-                  lxxx
                                                                                                          Electronics Weekly -
out+appled-apple Feb 2010                                                                           http://www.electronicsweekly.com/Articles/2010/01/26/47877/android-handset-brings-
liii
     Interview Oded Ran, Head of Consumer Marketing, Windows Phone March 2010                       augmented-reality-to-local-browsing.htm - Jan 2010
liv
      M:Metrics March 2010                                                                          lxxxi
                                                                                                           Mashable - http://mashable.com/2010/02/15/layar-partnership/ - Feb 2010
lv
     Cnet - http://news.cnet.com/8301-30686_3-10417853-266.html - Dec 2009                          lxxxii
                                                                                                            ReadWrite - http://www.readwriteweb.com/start/2010/02/layar-app-store-ar.php - Feb
lvi
      PC World -                                                                                    2010
http://www.pcworld.com/article/154212/rims_blackberry_storm_awkward_and_disappointin                lxxxiii
                                                                                                            Text.it - http://www.text.it/mediacentre/sms_figures.cfm - March 2010
g.html - Nov 2008                                                                                   lxxxiv
                                                                                                            Sign-up.to - http://www.ncvo-vol.org.uk/emailstatistics - July 2009
lvii
      Daily Telegraph - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/blackberry/6508898/BlackBerry-        lxxxv
                                                                                                            MDA - http://www.themda.org/case-studies/ocado-teams-up-with-esendex-to-deliver-
Bold-9700-review.html - Nov 2009                                                                    top-quality-service.php
lviii
       Mobile Entertainment - http://www.mobile-ent.biz/features/245/Samsungs-big-Bada-bid -        lxxxvi
                                                                                                            148Apps - http://148apps.biz/app-store-metrics/ - Feb 2010
Feb 2010                                                                                            lxxxvii
                                                                                                             AdMob Mobile Metrics Jan 2010
lix
     Interview Nick Turner-Samuels, Head of Content, Samsung Mar 2010                               lxxxviii
                                                                                                             ComScore MobiLens Jan 2010
lx
     Total Telecom - http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?C=0&ID=452393 Jan 2010                      lxxxix
                                                                                                            Forrester Making iPhone Work in the Enterprise Apr 2009
lxi
     Mobile Entertainment - http://ow.ly/1oGgME - Feb 2010                                          xc
                                                                                                         AndroLib - http://www.androlib.com/appstats.aspx - Feb 2010
lxii
      Mobile Marketing - http://www.mobilemarketingmagazine.co.uk/2010/03/orange-teams-             xci
                                                                                                         AndroLib - http://www.androlib.com/appstats.aspx - Feb 2010
up-with-intel.html - Mar 2010                                                                       xcii
                                                                                                          YouTube - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SO0dM03iVSM Nov 2009
lxiii
      LiMo Foundation - http://www.limofoundation.org/                                              xciii
                                                                                                           PC World -
lxiv
       PC World -                                                                                   http://www.pcworld.com/article/166704/the_best_and_worst_of_blackberry_app_world.html
http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/173355/motorola_no_longer_on_limo_found               - June 2009
ation_board.html - Oct 2009                                                                         xciv
                                                                                                           Revolution - http://www.brandrepublic.com/Discipline/Digital/News/909105/Reviewed -
lxv
      FastCompany - http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/chris-dannen/techwatch/iphones-                 May 2009
swelling-achilles-heel - Mar 2009                                                                   xcv
                                                                                                          Interview Keith Varty Services Marketing, Nokia Mar 2010
lxvi
       Pinch Media - http://www.slideshare.net/pinchmedia/iphone-appstore-secrets-pinch-            xcvi
                                                                                                           PC World -
media - 2008                                                                                        http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/169904/apples_app_store_rejections_open
lxvii
       Juniper Whitepaper, LBS finds its way on the mobile - 2009                                   _the_door_for_competition.html - Aug 2009
lxviii
       Kleiner Perkins - http://vimeo.com/9863374 - Mar 2010                                        xcvii
                                                                                                            Mobile Industry Review -
lxix
      Silicon.com - http://www.silicon.com/management/cio-insights/2009/03/09/barclaycard-          http://www.mobileindustryreview.com/2009/12/vodafone_360_-_an_absolute_failure.html -
orange-share-a-mobile-wallet-39405158/ March 2009                                                   Dec 2009
lxx
      Mobile Commerce Daily - http://www.mobilecommercedaily.com/gemalto-nokia-align-for-           xcviii
                                                                                                            Mobile Entertainment - http://www.mobile-ent.biz/news/36049/MWC-2010-Vodafone-
nfc-payments/ - Nov 2009                                                                            sells-300000-360-handsets - Feb 2010
lxxi
      NFC Forum - http://www.nfc-                                                                   xcix
                                                                                                           Interview Patrick Mork, VP Marketing, GetJar Feb 2010
forum.org/news/pr/view?item_key=48ffb07733e9347168ce648f131e71fab35fe453 Jan                        c
                                                                                                       Bondi - http://bondi.omtp.org/default.aspx - March 2010
2010                                                                                                ci
                                                                                                        The Register - http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/02/16/bondi_competition/ - Feb 2010
lxxii
       Near Field Communications World -                                                            cii
                                                                                                         Dive Into HTML5 - http://diveintohtml5.org/
http://www.nearfieldcommunicationsworld.com/2009/12/17/32494/uk-government-to-fund-                 ciii
                                                                                                         Mobile Entertainment - http://ow.ly/1oRXl2 - Feb 2010
switch-to-nfc-compatible-transport-ticketing/ - Dec 09                                              civ
                                                                                                          Google Mobile Advertising 2010
lxxiii
       Silicon.com - http://www.silicon.com/technology/mobile/2008/09/02/five-year-wait-for-        cv
                                                                                                         Morgan Stanley The Mobile Internet Report Dec 2009
o2-oyster-card-mobiles-39283172/ - Sep 2008                                                         cvi
                                                                                                          Microsoft Advertising - http://www.bigmouthmedia.com/live/articles/young-men-most-
lxxiv
       NFC News - http://www.nfcnews.com/2009/11/17/gemalto-sncf-demo-nfc-transit-app -             closely-attached-to-the-net.asp/6780/ - Feb 2010
Nov 2009                                                                                            cvii
                                                                                                          Orange Exposure March 2009
lxxv
       Youtube QR code demo March 2008




                                                                                               84                                Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010
cviii                                                                                                 cxxxiv
       Computing - http://www.computing.co.uk/computing/news/2257961/mobile-search-                             M Metrics Feb 2009
                                                                                                      cxxxv
predicted - Mar 2010                                                                                           Interview Alex Newman, Head of Mobile, OMD   Mar 2010
cix
     Viral Avatar - http://www.viralavatar.com/bot-marketing-and-a-transformer-on-your-
messenger/ - July 2007
cx
    Guardian - http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2007/jan/17/news.media - Jan 2007
cxi
     European Communications -
http://www.eurocomms.com/online_press/113408/3_UK_partners_with_Mobix_Interactive_
to_launch_%27first%27_mobile_TV_Subscription_Video-on-Demand_offering.html Nov
2009
cxii
      Morgan Stanley The Mobile Internet Report Dec 2009
cxiii
      Chamath Palihapitaya, Facebook, MWC Barcelona, Feb 2010
cxiv
       CSS Insight report on mobile usage - 2009
cxv
      GetJar - http://www.getjar.com/mobile/15801/facebook-mobile/ - March 2010
cxvi
       Chamath Palihapitaya, Facebook, MWC Barcelona, Feb 2010
cxvii
       Inside Facebook - http://www.insidefacebook.com/2010/02/16/facebooks-zero-a-
forthcoming-lightweight-mobile-web-site/ - Feb 2010
cxviii
        Google Mobile blog - http://googlemobile.blogspot.com/2010/02/introducing-google-
buzz-for-mobile-see.html - Feb 2010
cxix
      Business Insider - http://www.businessinsider.com/foursquare-plots-its-business-model-
2010-2 - Feb 2010
cxx
       TechCrunch - http://techcrunch.com/2010/03/09/facebook-location-features/ - Mar 2010
cxxi
      Strategy Analytics -
http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=PressReleaseViewer&a0=4856 Jan
2010
cxxii
       Edgar Dunn & Co - http://www.edgardunn.com/pointsofview/presentation.cfm - June
2009
cxxiii
        Edgar Dunn & Co - http://www.edgardunn.com/pointsofview/presentation.cfm - June
2009
cxxiv
        MPP Global - http://www.mppglobal.com/iShopMobile-mcommerce-mobile-phone-
shop/1-mcommerce-mobile-store.asp - March 2010
cxxv
       Apple - http://developer.apple.com/iphone/program/sdk/inapppurchase.html - June
2009
cxxvi
        Mobile Marketer - http://www.mobilemarketer.com/cms/news/content/5451.html - Feb
2010
cxxvii
        NFC World - http://www.nearfieldcommunicationsworld.com/2010/02/04/32639/visa-
europe-to-invest-e200m-in-development-of-contactless-payments-by-card-and-mobile/ -
Feb 2010
cxxviii
         Milton Keynes Borough Council -
http://www.miltonkeynes.gov.uk/mkparking/DisplayArticle.asp?ID=64532 March 2010
cxxix
        Road Traffic Technology - http://www.roadtraffic-technology.com/projects/congestion/ -
2008
cxxx
       Interview Steve Wing and Jon Moore, The Guardian Feb 2010
cxxxi
        Mac Observer -
http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/article/report_newspapers_balking_at_ipad_deal_over_r
evenue_sharing_customer_info/ - Feb 2010
cxxxii
        Interview Tim Hussain, Head of Mobile Advertising, Sky Mar 2010
cxxxiii
         Google Feb 2009




                                                                                                 85                                  Future of Mobile Technology, March 2010

				
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