Balance of Payments Performance
BOP Performance in 2005
The BOP by the end of 2005 is predicted to record a surplus of US $ 3.1 billion, due to both surplus in capital & financial account of US $ 2.1 billion and current account of US $ 1 billion. BOP performance up to December 2005 are as follows : Total export is expected to improve to US $ 89.5 billion by the end of 2005, from last year (US $ 72.2 billion). Non oil/gas exports is expected to were US $ 62.7 billion and oil/gas exports were US $ 54.5 billion. The non-oil/gas export grew by 3.5% as compared to a growth of 11.5% last year. Main non-oil/gas export commodities were electrical appliances, textile & textile products, chemical products, palm oils, copper, coal, wood product, machinery & mechanic, papers, and rubbers. Total imports increased by 33,9% to US $ 67,8 billion, mainly due to higher non oil/gas imports of US $ 51.0 billion. Likewise, oil/gas imports came up to US $ 16.7 billion. The services account remained in deficit of US $ 19.5 billion, versus last year deficit US $ 18.4 billion. Tourist revenue slightly reduced to US $ 4.76 billion (about 5.1 thousand of people) as compared to US $ 4.80 billion (about 5.3 thousand of people). The capital account recorded a surplus of US $ 0.96 billion, quiet much lower from a surplus of US $ 2.6 billion in 2004.The lower surplus this year was mainly contributed by a much lower surplus net private sector of US $ 0.3 billion as compared to US $ 4.4 billion on the last year, even though the net public sector of US $ 0.6 billion is higher than a deficit of US 1.8 billion in 2004. The lower of net private sector was mainly due to a private debt payment to abroad in other investment, in spite of a sharp increasing exists in net FDI due to Philip Morris’ investment in PT. Sampoerna. Whereas, the higher of net public sector was mainly due to a rescheduling of official debt from debt moratorium. As a result, the BOP (excluded errors & omissions) is still recorded a surplus of US $ 3.1 billion, due to both surplus in capital & financial account of US $ 2.1 billion and current account of US $ 1 billion. International reserves reached US $ 33.6 billion equivalent to 4.3 months of imports plus official debt service payments.
1) TABLE 1 INDONESIA'S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SUMMARY
(millions of USD)
August 30, 2005
I T E M S Q.1 I. Current Account A. Goods, net (Trade Balance) 1. 2. Exports, fob Import, fob -2,224 3,418 15,047 -11,629 -4,037 -1,912 306 1,392 … 1,392 447 447 792 792 153 153 -832 2,185 1,353 -1,353
3)
2004* Q.2 2,245 5,826 17,840 -12,014 -1,350 -2,504 273 -744 … -744 130 130 167 167 -1,040 -1,040 1,502 -3,417 -1,915 1,915 2,568 2,116 -201 0 -201 Q.3 2,771 6,368 19,454 -13,086 -1,903 -1,956 262 911 … 911 -17 -17 925 925 4 4 3,682 -3,671 11 -11 49 268 -280 0 -280 Q.4 317 5,939 19,825 -13,886 -3,590 -2,331 298 1,052 … 1,052 463 463 1,253 1,253 -663 -663 1,369 -509 860 -860 -1,518 -614 -246 0 -246 Total 3,109 21,552 72,167 -50,615 -10,879 -8,703 1,139 2,612 … 2,612 1,023 1,023 3,136 3,136 -1,546 -1,546 5,721 -5,412 309 -309 -24 674 -983 0 -983
2005** Q.1 1,391 5,328 20,368 -15,040 -2,530 -2,112 705 106 … 106 393 393 734 734 -1,021 -1,021 1,497 -1,147 350 -350 289 -47 -303 0 -303 Q.2 -471 5,255 21,681 -16,427 -4,146 -2,040 460 -1,146 … -1,146 2,174 2,174 -2,327 -2,327 -993 -993 -1,618 137 -1,480 1,480 2,165 1,729 -249 0 -249
B. Services, net C. Income, net D. Current Transfers, net II. Capital & Financial Account A. Capital Account B. Financial Account 1. Direct Investment, net a. Abroad, net b. In Indonesia (FDI), net Portfolio Investment, net a. Assets, net b. Liabilities, net Other Investment a. Assets, net 2) b. Liabilities, net
2.
3.
III. IV. V. VI.
Total (I + II) Errors & Omissions Overall Balance (III + IV) Monetary Movements
3)
Changes in Reserves Assets o/w Transaction IMF: Purchases Repurchases Memorandum:
-1,123 -1,096 -256 0 -256
4) Reserve Assets Position Current Account (% GDP) R) 5) Debt Service Ratio (%) o/w. Government Related & Monetary Authorities
37,419 34.6 13.1
34,851 32.0 12.2
34,802 21.8 10.1
36,320 28.5 12.9
6)
36,320 1.2 28.8 12.0
36,030 21.2 10.4
33,865 25.8 7.3
1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) R) * **
New format since January 2004 publication. Not included IMF package. Negative represents surplus and positive represents deficit. Since the first quarter of 2004, changes in reserve assets for actual data only cover transaction data. Since 1998, Reserve Assets Position is based on Gross Foreign Asset replacing Official Reserve. Since 2000, Reserve Assets Position is based on International Reserve and Foreign Currency Liquidity Concept (IRFCL). Ratio of external debt service payments to export of goods and services. Consist of Government, State Owned Enterprises except banks, and Bank Indonesia. Revised figures Estimated Projected Not available Not available yet
…
1) TABLE 2 INDONESIA'S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CURRENT ACCOUNT
(millions of USD)
August 30, 2005
I T E M S Q.1 Current Account A. Goods, net (Trade Balance) Non Oil and Gas Oil and Gas Exports, fob Non Oil and Gas Oil and Gas Imports, fob Non Oil and Gas Oil and Gas B. Services, net 1. Transportation, net a. Freight, net b. Passenger and Other, net 2. Travel, net a. Inflows b. Outflows 3. Other Services, net Income, net 1. Compensation of Employees 2. Investment Income a. Direct Investment b. Portfolio Investment c. Other Investment Interest Payments Government Related & Monetary Authorities Others Interest Earnings Government Related & Monetary Authorities Others Current Transfers 1. Government, net 2. Other Sector, net a. Workers' Remittances, net b. Other transfers, net -2,224 3,418 1,872 1,547 15,047 11,090 3,957 -11,629 -9,219 -2,410 -4,037 -792 -572 -220 34 1,093 -1,059 -3,279 -1,912 22 -1,934 -1,158 150 -926 -1,019 -564 -456 93 38 55 306 52 254 318 -64 Q.2 2,245 5,826 3,984 1,842 17,840 13,570 4,270 -12,014 -9,586 -2,428 -1,350 -703 -681 -22 469 1,161 -692 -1,115 -2,504 9 -2,514 -1,496 157 -1,175 -1,276 -826 -449 101 40 61 273 37 236 216 19
2004* Q.3 2,771 6,368 4,899 1,469 19,454 14,864 4,590 -13,086 -9,965 -3,121 -1,903 -811 -819 9 515 1,350 -835 -1,608 -1,956 10 -1,966 -1,518 169 -617 -727 -562 -165 110 43 67 262 35 226 246 -20 Q.4 317 5,939 4,271 1,668 19,825 14,958 4,868 -13,886 -10,686 -3,200 -3,590 -930 -892 -38 272 1,194 -922 -2,932 -2,331 -13 -2,318 -1,242 202 -1,279 -1,406 -884 -522 128 54 73 298 171 127 144 -17 Total 3,109 21,552 15,026 6,526 72,167 54,482 17,684 -50,615 -39,456 -11,159 -10,879 -3,236 -2,965 -271 1,291 4,798 -3,507 -8,934 -8,703 28 -8,732 -5,414 679 -3,996 -4,428 -2,836 -1,592 432 175 256 1,139 296 843 925 -82
2005** Q.1 1,391 5,328 4,068 1,260 20,368 15,476 4,892 -15,040 -11,408 -3,631 -2,530 -1,098 -981 -117 -10 1,061 -1,071 -1,422 -2,112 -134 -1,978 -1,413 255 -819 -962 -564 -398 143 64 79 705 80 625 272 353 Q.2 -471 5,255 4,050 1,205 21,681 16,830 4,851 -16,427 -12,780 -3,646 -4,146 -1,137 -1,118 -18 295 1,105 -810 -3,304 -2,040 -65 -1,975 -1,155 190 -1,010 -1,117 -792 -325 107 48 59 460 60 400 215 185
C.
2)
2)
D.
Memorandum: Non Oil and Gas Export Growth (%) Non Oil and Gas Import Growth (%) Oil Prices (USD/barrel) Oil Production (mbpd) Tourist Inflows (thousand people)
1) 2) * ** … New format since January 2004 publication. Consist of Government, State Owned Enterprises except banks, and Bank Indonesia. Estimated Projected Not available Not available yet
31.39 1.108 1,212
35.05 1.077 1,288
40.60 1.082 1,497
40.15 1.078 1,324
11.5 26.7 36.81 1.086 5,321
45.59 1.067 1,176
50.28 1.043 1,225
TABLE 3 1) INDONESIA'S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
(millions of USD)
August 30, 2005
I T E M S Q.1 A. B. Capital Account Financial Account 1. Direct Investment, net a. Abroad Equity Capital Others o/w. Loan b. In Indonesia (FDI) Equity Capital Others o/w. Loan: … 1,392 447 … … … … 447 328 119 765 -645 792 … … … … … 792 706 86 86 … 153 … … … 153 296 4,074 -3,777 -143 1,392 Q.2 … -744 130 … … … … 130 242 -112 566 -678 167 … … … … … 167 159 8 8 … -1,040 … … … -1,040 -1,034 2,993 -4,027 -7 -744
2004* Q.3 … 911 -17 … … … … -17 224 -241 523 -764 925 … … … … … 925 334 591 591 … 4 … … … 4 37 2,891 -2,854 -33 911 Q.4 … 1,052 463 … … … … 463 471 -8 742 -750 1,253 … … … … … 1,253 844 409 409 … -663 … … … -663 -647 3,008 -3,655 -16 1,052 Total … 2,612 1,023 … … … … 1,023 1,265 -242 2,595 -2,837 3,136 … … … … … 3,136 2,043 1,093 1,093 … -1,546 … … … -1,546 -1,347 12,965 -14,312 -199 2,612
2005** Q.1 … 106 393 … … … … 393 461 -68 217 -284 734 … … … … … 734 -180 913 913 … -1,021 … … … -1,021 -1,118 1,964 -3,082 97 106 Q.2 … -1,146 2,174 … … … … 2,174 3,107 -933 635 -1,568 -2,327 … … … … … -2,327 -1,569 -758 -758 … -993 … … … -993 -993 2,079 -3,072 0 -1,146
- Disbursements - Debt Repayments
2. Portfolio Investment, net a. Assets Equity Securities Debt Securities Bonds and Notes Others b. Liabilities Equity Securities Debt Securities Bonds and Notes Others 3. Other Investment a. Assets Loans Others
2)
b. Liabilities Loans 2) Disbursements Debt Repayments Others C.
1) 2) * ** …
Total (A + B)
New format since January 2004 publication. Not include IMF package. Estimated Projected Not available Not available yet