PDC Decision Tree by MInNP7e

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									                                A                               B                  C
1    PDC Problem - Decision Tree Analysis
2
3    Payoff Table
4                                                                State of Nature
5    Decision Alternative                                 High acceptance    Low acceptance
6    Small complex                                               8                  7
7    Medium complex                                             14                  5
8    Large complex                                              20                 -9
9    Probability                                                0.8               0.2
10
11   Probability Information
12
13   Market Research Outcomes                               Favorable         Unfavorable
14                                                            0.77               0.23
15
16                                                              State of Nature
17 If Market Research is                                  High acceptance    Low acceptance
18     Favorable                                               0.94               0.06
19     Unfavorable                                             0.35               0.65
20
21
22   Decision Tree Analysis
23                                                          Expected       Recommended
24                            Node                           Value           Decision
25   1. Decision Market Research or No Market Research             15.93 Market Research
26   2. Market Research                                            15.93
27   3. Market Research Favorable: Decision S, M or L              18.26 Large Complex
28   4. Market Research Unfavorable: Decision S, M or L              8.15 Medium Complex
29   5. No Market Research: Decision S, M or L                     14.20 Large Complex
30   6. Market Research/Favorable/Small Complex                      7.94
31   7. Market Research/Favorable/Medium Complex                   13.46
32   8. Market Research/Favorable/Large Complex                    18.26
33   9. Market Research/Unfavorable/Small Complex                    7.35
34   10. Market Research/Unfavorable/Medium Complex                  8.15
35   11. Market Research/Unfavorable/Large Complex                   1.15
36   12. No Market Research/Small Complex                            7.80
37   13. No Market Research/Medium Complex                         12.20
38   14. No Market Research/Large Complex                          14.20

								
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