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Dialogue on Cooperative
Action
India Presentation
Surya P. Sethi
Principal Adviser Energy
Nov 16, 2006
Outline
Review of Annex I actions to reduce GHGs
emissions
India in the global context
Low carbon pathway: sectoral opportunities
in India
CDM: in the post 2012 regime
Review of Annex I National
Communications - Highlights
GHG emission changes in select Annex I countries (w/o
LULUCF) over KP target/EU burden sharing
30 26.6
% change (1990-2004)
20 KP target / EU burden sharing
12.1
10.2
10 6.5
2.4 4.0
1.0 0.0
0
-0.8
-0.6 -3.5
-10 -6.0 -6.0 -6.5 -6.0
-8.0
-12.5
-20 -14.3 -17.2
-21.0
-30 15
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Only UK, Sweden and France have been able to achieve their targets
(Note: Sweden’s target had been +4% and that of France 0%)
Germany shows good progress but is still behind the target
EC15 at minus 0.6 is much behind the target of minus 8%
GHG emissions in Canada, Italy, Japan & Netherlands have increased,
against their emission reduction targets. Norway has far exceeded the
permitted increase in emissions. UNFCCC 2006
Changes in GHG emissions (1990-2004) CO2 vs.
other gases in select Annex I countries
80 58.5 CO2 Other gases
60
40 19.6
6.1 8.2 9.8 2.2 13.3 12.8
20 3.2
0
-20 -5.5 -7.5
-19.3 -15.2
-40
-35.1 -32.4
-60 -44.6
15
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UK
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Emission reduction in Germany, UK and EC 15 is mainly due to
reductions of non CO2 gases
Only UK and Germany have achieved CO2 reduction
UNFCCC 2006
Emission Projections for 2010 in percent of base
year emissions (UNFCCC 2006)
-2.2
Annex I
3.3
1.2
Non-EIT Annex I
7.8
-16.5
EIT
-15.4
1.2
EU 15
6.4
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10
"with measures scenario" "'with additional measures scenario"
Neither Annex I nor EU 15 will meet Kyoto targets even with
additional measures
The situation worsens if EITs excluded
India in the Global Context
India’s Growth Strategy Sustainable
Selected Energy Indicators for 2003
Country TPES Per Capita TPES /GDP
(Kgoe) (Kgoe/$-2000
PPP)
China 1090 0.23
Brazil 1094 0.15
Denmark 3852 0.13
India 439 0.16
UK 3906 0.14
US 7835 0.22
Japan 4052 0.15
World 1688 0.21
INDIA 2031-32 1065-1279 -
•Source : Key Energy Indicators IEA 2005; Planning Commission, India
Per-capita consumption levels per-unit of
inhabited land area
(thousand tonnes/capita/sq. kilometres) 2000 1907
1800
1599
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
630
600 456
400
200 94 74 43
0.4 1 17 22 45
0
Aluminium Cement Steel
India Japan EU-15 USA
• India ranks the lowest
CO2 Emissions from Key Material Inputs for
Infrastructure Development
CO2 emissions in Cement, Iron and Steel and Aluminum
3500
3000
(million metric tonnes)
2500
2000 1771
1500
1000
500
0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Year
BAU S1
S1 Scenario assumes India matches consumption levels of EU 15 on
a per capita per square kilometer bases for Aluminum, Cement &
Steel by 2031-32
Co2 emissions increase from 1251 million tonnes (BAU) to 3022
million tonnes (S1) in 2031 Increase of 1771 million tonnes in S1
relative to BAU in 2031
Low carbon pathway: Sectoral
opportunities in India
Relative CO2 emissions from Energy Sector
Activities
CO2 emission (2003)
India 1050 (million tonnes),
6% 3% 5% World (24983), China (3760)
USA (5729)
12%
CO2 emissions/capita (2003):
India 0.99 (tonnes), World (3.99),
52%
China (2.90), USA (19.68)
Source: (IEA, Statistics, CO2 emissions
22% from Fuel Combustion 1971-2003,
2005)
Energy and transformation industries Industry Share of CO2 emissions from Large
Transport Residential
Point Sources (LPS) of energy and
transformation industries (1995)
Commercial Others Fossil power (94): 47%
Steel (11): 6 (%)
Cement (85): 9%
Source: NATCOM India, 2004 (Source: Garg and Shukla, 2004)
Sectoral CDM Opportunities
Power Generation
• Accelerated Renovation and Modernization of Old Plants
• Clean coal technologies
• Ultra supercritical
• IGCC based on indigenous coal
• IGCC based on imported coal
• Efficient Gas (H-Frame CCGT)
• Renewables (Wind, Small Hydro, PV, Biomass)
Iron and Steel Production
• Efficiency improvement in existing plants (all retrofitted by 2017)
• Introduction of Best Available Technology (BAT) in BF-BOF plant
• Increased Share of BF-BOF (with BAT) in total steel production
Cement Production
• Modernization of existing 4 and 5 stage to 6 stage systems (all retrofitted by
2017)
• Waste heat recovery based cogeneration (30% electricity saving)
• Increased share of blended cement
• Reduction of process CO2 emissions during clinker production
Sectoral CDM Potential During 2012-17
(Power, Iron &Steel, Cement)
350
300
2
Million tonnes of CO
250
200
150 309
100
179
50
63
0
Cement Steel Pow er
CO2 Emissions reduction potential of about 550 million tonnes during 2012-17
Highest emissions reduction potential is in the power sector (309 MT)
India’s cement and steel sectors are closer to international emission norms as
reflected by their lower reduction potential
Additional Investment Requirements (2012-17) for Transition
to Low Carbon Path, vis-a-vis Select Development Outlays of
GoI for Tenth Plan
28 28
24 2.4 24 1.4 Ministry of
3.2 Environment and
20 5.7 20 Forests
Department of
Billion $
Billion $
16 Cement 16 6.9 Women and Child
Development
12 Steel 12 Department of
Elementary Education
8 17.0 Power 8 and Literacy
13.0 Department of Rural
4 4 Development
0 0
Additional investment requirements to the tune of 25.1 Billion US$ (at 2001 Prices)
similar order of magnitude as plan support for meeting social and
environmental development targets
Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Power, Steel and Cement
Sectors (All options) [For 2012-17]
No. Technology Mitigation
70
cost
($/tonne)
60 1 Renovation and modernization - ve
2 Blended cement production - ve
50
3 Retrofit-EAF - ve
4 Retrofit of 4 stage to 6 stage - ve
$/tonne
40
5 Retrofit of 5 stage to 6 stage - ve
30 6 Retrofit- BF-BOF Efficient 1.7
7 Coal ultra supercritical 17.4
20 8 BF-BOF Best available technology 19.6
9 Cogeneration (cement plant) 20.8
10
10 Small hydro 29.1
11 IGCC based on Imported Coal 45.0
0
12 H-frame CCGT 45.4
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
13 IGCC based on Indigenous Coal 52.9
Million tonnes of CO2 reduced 14 Biomass gasifier 60.0
15 Wind turbine 63.2
Total additional investment requirement : 25.1 billion US$
For options with positive mitigation cost total additional investment
requirement : 22.3 billion US$
Mitigation cost is highest for SPV: 925.8 $/tonne . This has not been plotted
Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Power Sector
(for 2012-17) No. Technology Mitigation cost
($/tonne)
70
1 Renovation and
60
modernization -ve
50 2 Coal ultra supercritical 17.4
3 Small hydro 29.1
$/tonne
40
4 IGCC based on
30
Imported Coal 45.0
20 5 H-frame CCGT 45.4
10 6 IGCC based on
Indigenous Coal 52.9
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
7 Biomass gasifier 60.0
Million tonnes of CO 2 reduced 8 Wind turbine 63.2
Total additional investment requirement : 17 billion US$
For options with positive mitigation cost total additional investment
requirement : 15 billion US$
Mitigation cost is highest for SPV: 925.8 $/tonne . This has not been plotted
India’s Suggestions at the G-8 Summit
Place Energy Efficient and sustainable
technologies in limited public domain
Replace traditional technology transfer with
collaborative R&D
New Multilateral Window to provide additional
funding for the above against the security of
robust long term carbon markets
CDM in the post 2012 regime
Ensuring a Carbon Market: Post
2012 Regime
A long-term market
Unequivocal commitment to continuation of CDM
post 2012
Deeper ER cuts by Annex I countries
Longer commitment period
Single universal unit example: CERs
Urgent need for guidelines on programmatic
CDM
Automatic approval of projects below Sectoral
Baselines
Ensuring a Carbon Market: Post 2012
Regime….
Simplified process for determining additionality
of small solar, wind and hydro
Transparent, consistent and non-
discriminatory process for registration of
projects by the EB
With the above in place venture capital would
follow CDM even in regions where CDM
projects are currently scarce
An ounce of practice is worth more than a ton of
preaching
