Sustainable Consumption

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					Dialogue on Cooperative
        Action
  India Presentation
         Surya P. Sethi
    Principal Adviser Energy
          Nov 16, 2006
Outline
   Review of Annex I actions to reduce GHGs
    emissions

   India in the global context

   Low carbon pathway: sectoral opportunities
    in India

   CDM: in the post 2012 regime
Review of Annex I National
Communications - Highlights
GHG emission changes in select Annex I countries (w/o
LULUCF) over KP target/EU burden sharing
    30    26.6
                                                            % change (1990-2004)
    20                                                      KP target / EU burden sharing
                             12.1
                                          10.2
    10              6.5
                                                                                2.4         4.0
                                             1.0                                                       0.0
     0
                                                                                                  -0.8
                                                  -0.6                                    -3.5
    -10      -6.0     -6.0        -6.5                                             -6.0
                                                     -8.0
                                                                -12.5
    -20                                                -14.3          -17.2
                                                                          -21.0
    -30                                          15
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   Only UK, Sweden and France have been able to achieve their targets
    (Note: Sweden’s target had been +4% and that of France 0%)
   Germany shows good progress but is still behind the target
   EC15 at minus 0.6 is much behind the target of minus 8%
   GHG emissions in Canada, Italy, Japan & Netherlands have increased,
    against their emission reduction targets. Norway has far exceeded the
    permitted increase in emissions.                        UNFCCC 2006
          Changes in GHG emissions (1990-2004) CO2 vs.
          other gases in select Annex I countries
     80                    58.5                     CO2          Other gases
     60
     40               19.6
            6.1                   8.2 9.8 2.2                               13.3       12.8
     20        3.2
      0
    -20                                            -5.5                                    -7.5
                                           -19.3                -15.2
    -40
                                                                    -35.1      -32.4
    -60                                                 -44.6
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           Emission reduction in Germany, UK and EC 15 is mainly due to
            reductions of non CO2 gases
           Only UK and Germany have achieved CO2 reduction

                                                                                UNFCCC 2006
Emission Projections for 2010 in percent of base
year emissions                        (UNFCCC 2006)

                                          -2.2
            Annex I
                                                            3.3


                                                      1.2
    Non-EIT Annex I
                                                                    7.8


                       -16.5
               EIT
                         -15.4


                                                      1.2
             EU 15
                                                                  6.4


                      -20    -15   -10   -5       0          5          10


          "with measures scenario"            "'with additional measures scenario"


       Neither Annex I nor EU 15 will meet Kyoto targets even with
        additional measures

       The situation worsens if EITs excluded
India in the Global Context
India’s Growth Strategy Sustainable

         Selected Energy Indicators for 2003
 Country                  TPES Per Capita           TPES /GDP
                              (Kgoe)              (Kgoe/$-2000
                                                      PPP)
 China                          1090                   0.23
 Brazil                         1094                   0.15
 Denmark                        3852                   0.13
 India                           439                    0.16
 UK                             3906                    0.14
 US                             7835                    0.22
 Japan                          4052                    0.15
 World                         1688                     0.21
 INDIA 2031-32               1065-1279                    -
•Source : Key Energy Indicators IEA 2005;   Planning Commission, India
Per-capita consumption levels per-unit of
           inhabited land area
     (thousand tonnes/capita/sq. kilometres)   2000                                                        1907

                                               1800
                                                                                      1599
                                               1600
                                               1400
                                               1200
                                               1000
                                                800
                                                                                   630
                                                600                                                    456
                                                400
                                                200                94      74 43
                                                      0.4 1   17                               22 45
                                                  0
                                                      Aluminium                 Cement             Steel

                                                              India     Japan      EU-15     USA


           • India ranks the lowest
CO2 Emissions from Key Material Inputs for
Infrastructure Development

                                            CO2 emissions in Cement, Iron and Steel and Aluminum


                                         3500

                                         3000
               (million metric tonnes)


                                         2500

                                         2000                                                      1771
                                         1500

                                         1000

                                          500

                                            0
                                            2001   2006    2011    2016    2021    2026   2031
                                                                   Year

                                                                     BAU      S1


   S1 Scenario assumes India matches consumption levels of EU 15 on
    a per capita per square kilometer bases for Aluminum, Cement &
    Steel by 2031-32
   Co2 emissions increase from 1251 million tonnes (BAU) to 3022
    million tonnes (S1) in 2031  Increase of 1771 million tonnes in S1
    relative to BAU in 2031
Low carbon pathway: Sectoral
   opportunities in India
     Relative CO2 emissions from Energy Sector
     Activities

                                                          CO2 emission (2003)
                                                          India 1050 (million tonnes),
                   6% 3% 5%                               World (24983), China (3760)
                                                          USA (5729)
             12%
                                                          CO2 emissions/capita (2003):
                                                          India 0.99 (tonnes), World (3.99),
                                                    52%
                                                          China (2.90), USA (19.68)
                                                          Source: (IEA, Statistics, CO2 emissions
               22%                                        from Fuel Combustion 1971-2003,
                                                          2005)


 Energy and transformation industries Industry            Share of CO2 emissions from Large
 Transport                            Residential
                                                          Point Sources (LPS) of energy and
                                                          transformation industries (1995)
 Commercial                           Others              Fossil power (94): 47%
                                                          Steel (11): 6 (%)
                                                          Cement (85): 9%
Source: NATCOM India, 2004                                (Source: Garg and Shukla, 2004)
Sectoral CDM Opportunities
Power Generation
    •   Accelerated Renovation and Modernization of Old Plants
    •   Clean coal technologies
         •   Ultra supercritical
         •   IGCC based on indigenous coal
         •   IGCC based on imported coal

    •   Efficient Gas (H-Frame CCGT)
    •   Renewables (Wind, Small Hydro, PV, Biomass)


Iron and Steel Production
    •   Efficiency improvement in existing plants (all retrofitted by 2017)
    •   Introduction of Best Available Technology (BAT) in BF-BOF plant
    •   Increased Share of BF-BOF (with BAT) in total steel production


Cement Production
    •   Modernization of existing 4 and 5 stage to 6 stage systems (all retrofitted by
        2017)
    •   Waste heat recovery based cogeneration (30% electricity saving)
    •   Increased share of blended cement
    •   Reduction of process CO2 emissions during clinker production
    Sectoral CDM Potential During 2012-17
    (Power, Iron &Steel, Cement)
                               350

                               300
                 2
        Million tonnes of CO




                               250

                               200

                               150                                  309
                               100
                                                 179
                               50
                                      63
                                0
                                     Cement     Steel              Pow er

            CO2 Emissions reduction potential of about 550 million tonnes during 2012-17
            Highest emissions reduction potential is in the power sector (309 MT)
            India’s cement and steel sectors are closer to international emission norms as
             reflected by their lower reduction potential
     Additional Investment Requirements (2012-17) for Transition
     to Low Carbon Path, vis-a-vis Select Development Outlays of
     GoI for Tenth Plan
            28                                                28
            24          2.4                                   24   1.4      Ministry of
                                                                   3.2      Environment and
            20          5.7                                   20            Forests
                                                                            Department of
Billion $




                                                  Billion $
            16                           Cement               16   6.9      Women and Child
                                                                            Development
            12                           Steel                12            Department of
                                                                            Elementary Education
            8           17.0             Power                8             and Literacy
                                                                   13.0     Department of Rural
            4                                                 4             Development


            0                                                 0


Additional investment requirements to the tune of 25.1 Billion US$ (at 2001 Prices)

                 similar order of magnitude as plan support for meeting social and
                                 environmental development targets
                   Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Power, Steel and Cement
                   Sectors (All options) [For 2012-17]
                                                                         No.   Technology                         Mitigation
          70
                                                                                                                     cost
                                                                                                                  ($/tonne)
          60                                                              1    Renovation and modernization          - ve
                                                                          2    Blended cement production             - ve
          50
                                                                          3    Retrofit-EAF                          - ve
                                                                          4    Retrofit of 4 stage to 6 stage        - ve
$/tonne




          40
                                                                          5    Retrofit of 5 stage to 6 stage        - ve
          30                                                              6    Retrofit- BF-BOF Efficient             1.7
                                                                          7    Coal ultra supercritical              17.4
          20                                                              8    BF-BOF Best available technology      19.6
                                                                          9    Cogeneration (cement plant)           20.8
          10
                                                                         10    Small hydro                           29.1
                                                                         11    IGCC based on Imported Coal           45.0
           0
                                                                         12    H-frame CCGT                          45.4
               0     100       200        300       400      500   600
                                                                         13    IGCC based on Indigenous Coal         52.9
                             Million tonnes of CO2 reduced               14    Biomass gasifier                      60.0
                                                                         15    Wind turbine                          63.2



                          Total additional investment requirement : 25.1 billion US$
                          For options with positive mitigation cost total additional investment
                           requirement : 22.3 billion US$
                          Mitigation cost is highest for SPV: 925.8 $/tonne . This has not been plotted
               Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Power Sector
               (for 2012-17)              No. Technology   Mitigation cost
                                                                                                        ($/tonne)
          70
                                                                         1   Renovation and
          60
                                                                             modernization                 -ve
          50                                                             2   Coal ultra supercritical     17.4
                                                                         3   Small hydro                  29.1
$/tonne




          40
                                                                         4   IGCC based on
          30
                                                                             Imported Coal                45.0
          20                                                             5   H-frame CCGT                 45.4
          10                                                             6   IGCC based on
                                                                             Indigenous Coal              52.9
          0
               0   50      100      150       200      250   300   350
                                                                         7   Biomass gasifier             60.0
                            Million tonnes of CO 2 reduced               8   Wind turbine                 63.2



                       Total additional investment requirement : 17 billion US$
                       For options with positive mitigation cost total additional investment
                        requirement : 15 billion US$
                       Mitigation cost is highest for SPV: 925.8 $/tonne . This has not been plotted
India’s Suggestions at the G-8 Summit

   Place Energy Efficient and sustainable
    technologies in limited public domain

   Replace traditional technology transfer with
    collaborative R&D

   New Multilateral Window to provide additional
    funding for the above against the security of
    robust long term carbon markets
CDM in the post 2012 regime
    Ensuring a Carbon Market: Post
    2012 Regime
   A long-term market
       Unequivocal commitment to continuation of CDM
        post 2012
       Deeper ER cuts by Annex I countries
       Longer commitment period
       Single universal unit example: CERs

   Urgent need for guidelines on programmatic
    CDM

   Automatic approval of projects below Sectoral
    Baselines
    Ensuring a Carbon Market: Post 2012
    Regime….
   Simplified process for determining additionality
    of small solar, wind and hydro

   Transparent, consistent and non-
    discriminatory process for registration of
    projects by the EB

   With the above in place venture capital would
    follow CDM even in regions where CDM
    projects are currently scarce
An ounce of practice is worth more than a ton of
                   preaching

				
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