Nat'l SAN Memo 01-29-13

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					       Caddell Associates                                              McLaughlin & Associates


 at Caddell/John McLaughlin

   National Poll – Chuck Hagel Nomination

January 29,


Methodology: McLaughlin & Associates partnered with Pat Caddell to conduct this national
poll of 800 likely general election voters nationwide between January 21st and January 27th, 2012.
600 interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. 200 interviews were
conducted via internet to capture voters who identified themselves as cell-phone only users.
Interview selection was random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to
correlate with actual voter turnout in a nationwide general election. This poll of 800 likely general
election voters has an accuracy of +/- 3.4% at a 95% confidence interval. To see more detailed
information about the survey, please visit

Survey Analysis: At the time of this just completed national poll, former U.S. Senator Chuck
Hagel receives two to one public approval for his nomination as Secretary of Defense, 48%
approve, 27% disapprove. One in four voters, 25%, are not sure or don’t know. However,
when presented with arguments, both pro and con about Chuck Hagel’s background and
record, public opinion support for his nomination collapses and the majority of Americans
now disapprove of his nomination as Secretary of Defense. 50% to only 39% approve. This is
a 32 point negative shift against Senator Hagel from a +21 net approval to an 11 point net
disapproval. It is very clear that there is a large lack of knowledge among the public about
where Senator Hagel stands on security policies. The reason for this shift, when informed
about Senator Hagel’s views and policies, is because there is a significant disconnect
between Senator Hagel’s views and the majority of Americans – including many supporters
of the President. Also, it is evident that it is American security concerns and policies, not
Israel related issues, that are the basis for their pre-eminent interest that moves these
voters. To the extent that Senator Hagel’s views reflect the President’s policies, it suggests
that many of the voters are unaware of these policies. Therefore, this data tells us that the
focus of the hearings should be equal parts the views of Senator Hagel and the specific
policies of the Obama administration as well.

     The initial support for Chuck Hagel’s nomination is primarily based upon the support
of voters in the President’s political base. President Obama’s favorable rating is 53%, to 42%
unfavorable; only 5% have no opinion. When asked about their opinion of former U.S.
     Caddell Associates                                                 McLaughlin & Associates

Senator Chuck Hagel, 25% are favorable; 19% are unfavorable; 34% have heard of him, but
have no opinion, and 22% have never heard of him.

      When asked about important security issues facing the United States, like Iran and
terrorism we can see the foundation for concern and a potential huge shift in public opinion
away from Senator Hagel.

     Two-thirds of all voters, 65%, do not think that President Obama’s sanctions against
Iran will work. The majority, 60%, approve of using air power against Iran to stop their
nuclear weapons production.

     The majority of voters, 51%, would support Israel in attacking Iran to stop their nuclear
weapons development. Only one-third, 33%, would work to prevent a pre-emptive attack.

      “Do you think President Obama’s policy of increased sanctions on Iran will succeed in
      convincing them to abandon developing nuclear weapons?”

      1. Yes 22%
        2. No 65%
        3. Don’t Know/Refused 13%

      “If sanctions against Iran do not work, would you approve or disapprove of using air
      power to attack and destroy the facilities in Iran which are necessary to produce a
      nuclear weapon?”

      1. Strongly Approve 34% 
      2. Somewhat Approve 26% 
         Approval 60%

      3. Somewhat Disapprove 16%
 4. Strongly Disapprove 16% 
         Disapproval 32%

      5. Don’t Know/Refused 9%

      “If Israel were to pre-emptively attack nuclear facilities in Iran in order to stop it from
      developing a nuclear weapon, should the Obama administration support Israel and help them
      destroy these Iranian nuclear facilities or should the Obama administration work to prevent
      Israel from attacking Iran?”

      1. Support Israel 51% 
      2. Prevent Attack 33%
     3. Don’t Know/
         Refused 16%
     Caddell Associates                                              McLaughlin & Associates

        When initially asked whether they approve or disapprove of the Hagel nomination almost half
of all voters give him two to one approval.

      “Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama’s nomination of former U.S. Senator
      Chuck Hagel to be Secretary of Defense?”

      1. Strongly Approve 16% 
     2. Somewhat Approve 32% 
         Approval 48%

      3. Somewhat Disapprove 14%
 4. Strongly Disapprove 13% 
         Disapproval 27%

      5. Don’t Know/Refused 25%

      On the positive side for Chuck Hagel, two-thirds or all voters, 67%, say that they
would be more likely to support Hagel for Defense Secretary if they knew that he was a
decorated Vietnam veteran and a majority and, 57%, are more likely to support him knowing
that he is supported by major foreign policy and defense experts like Colin Powell.

       However, Chuck Hagel’s potential public opinion support is completely undermined
by his own views and support for policies at odds with American public opinion. The
majority of voters, 54%, are less likely to support Hagel knowing that he went on Al-Jazeera
TV and agreed that the U.S. is “the world’s bully”, 52% are less likely to support him
knowing that he voted against designating Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist
organization, 51% are less likely to support him knowing that he supports unilaterally
cutting America’s nuclear arsenal by 80% and 49% were less likely to support him knowing
that Hagel was solely responsible for holding up a bipartisan bill for Iran sanctions to stop
their nuclear weapons program.

      (The positive question about Senator Hagel’s Vietnam service was asked first and all other
questions were randomly rotated.)

      Also, although voters were about evenly split on their generic vote for U.S. Senate 42%
Republican, 44% Democratic, large segments of voters who are voting Democratic or Undecided
become significantly less favorable to support the Hagel nomination. Also, among those who at first
           Caddell Associates                                                                                   McLaughlin & Associates
                                                                                                                                        App. Hagel/ Now
               More Likely/Less Likely                         TOTAL   Vote GOP Vote DEM Vote UND 1st App. CH 1st Disapp. CH   DK/Ref       Disapp.
In 2009, on Al Jazeera TV, Chuck Hagel agreed to the           17/54     9/70      26/39    15/51      26/45       7/68         11/55        6/83
assertion that the U.S. is –quote- the world’s bully.
In 2007, Chuck Hagel voted against designating Iran’s
Islamic Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization
                                                               11/52     9/65      15/38     7/54      16/43       7/65         6/53         11/76
even though the U.S. government has proven that Iran
backs state sponsored terrorism.
Chuck Hagel supports a proposal for the United States to       24/51     11/73     38/32    18/46      36/38       9/72         17/53        11/78
unilaterally cut our nation’s nuclear arsenal by 80%.
In 2008, Chuck Hagel was cited as “solely responsible”
for putting the hold on a bi-partisan Iran sanctions bill in
                                                               18/49     13/59     23/42    15/42      28/33       12/67        14/47        18/65
the Senate that had 72 co-sponsors and was intended to
stop them from getting nuclear weapons.
In 1999, ninety-nine U.S. Senators signed an American
Jewish Committee ad in the New York Times urging
Russian President Boris Yeltsin to combat anti-Semitism        12/45     9/56      16/35     9/40      17/38       7/56         7/44         9/69
in Russia. Chuck Hagel was the ONLY Senator who
refused to sign.
In 2001, Chuck Hagel voted against the Iran-Libya
Sanctions Act. The Act, which passed 96-2, helped deny
Iran and Libya money that they would spend on                  25/44     21/52     29/37    25/40      34/30       19/59        24/41        19/64
supporting terror or acquiring weapons of mass

In 2009, Chuck Hagel signed a letter urging President          28/41     15/61     42/24    22/38      42/29       8/67         22/37        25/59
Obama to commence direct negotiations with the terrorist
organization, Hamas.

Regarding efforts to stop Iran from getting a nuclear
weapon, in 2006, Chuck Hagel opposed any military              34/39     18/60     51/21    31/33      49/27       14/63        27/35        25/65
action to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and said
that -quote- a military strike against Iran, a military
option, is not a viable, feasible, responsible option.
Now that Chuck Hagel has been nominated to be
Secretary of Defense, he has changed his mind about Iran
                                                               34/29     32/37     37/23    28/26      45/23       21/43        25/27        51/36
and would not take the option of military action off the
When Chuck Hagel was in the U.S. Senate he made
remarks that disparaged gays serving in the military.
                                                               30/22     13/32     49/11    23/24      46/14       13/35        20/22        28/37
However, Chuck Hagel has since apologized and says
those views no longer reflect his thinking.
Chuck Hagel’s nomination has been supported by major
                                                               57/12     34/21     79/4      58/7      81/4        23/28        50/9         71/12
foreign policy and defense experts like Colin Powell.
Chuck Hagel voluntarily enlisted and served honorably in
Vietnam, including being decorated twice with the purple        67/4     59/7      73/4      71/1      77/2        48/7         67/5         75/6

approve Chuck Hagel, but now would disapprove of his nomination, we can see that agreeing that
the U.S. is the world’s bully, cutting America’s nuclear arsenal, and weakness towards Iran collapses
his support.

      Now when all these positives and negatives were made known to the voters, there is a huge
shift of public opinion away from Chuck Hagel.

     Among the 48% who initially favored Chuck Hagel’s nomination, 26% actually now move to
disapproval while among those who didn’t know they move to 54% disapprove while only 18%

      Caddell Associates                                                   McLaughlin & Associates

     “Now assuming everything you just heard about former U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel is true, do
you approve or disapprove of the President’s nomination of Chuck Hagel to be Secretary of

                           2nd TOTAL          1st Approve          1st Disapprove      1st Don’t Know
APPROVE                      39%                    69%                    3%               18%
Strongly                     14%                    29%                    1%               1%
Somewhat                     24%                    40%                    2%               17%
DISAPPROVE                   50%                    26%                  91%                54%
Somewhat                     19%                    17%                  16%                27%
Strongly                     31%                    9%                   75%                27%
DK/REFUSED                   11%                    5%                     6%               28%


AGE        %    RACE                   %    PARTY        %    IDEOLOGY          %    OPINION       %
18-29      12   WHITE                  76   GOP          33   LIBERAL           23   FAVORABLE     53
30-40      16   AFRICAN-AMERICAN 11         DEM          38   MODERATE          35   UNFAVORABLE   42
41-55      26   HISPANIC               11   IND          27   CONSERVATIVE      37
56-65      26   PHONE                  %    AREA         %    VOTE U.S.         %
OVER 65 19      All Cell               29   EAST         17   REPUBLICAN        42
GENDER %        Almost All Cell        9    MID-WEST 25       DEMOCRAT          44
MEN        47   Some Cell/Some      30      SOUTH        37   UNDECIDED         14
WOMEN 53        All/Almost All Home 32      WEST         22

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