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DAILY i forex REPORT BY EPIC RESEARCH-05 February 2013 -

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DAILY i forex REPORT BY EPIC RESEARCH-05 February 2013 - Powered By Docstoc
					                  DAILY I FOREX REPORT
                      5th FEBRUARY 2013




WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO                       +91 9752199966
                                                  HEADLINES


                                     Is The Japanese Yen Selloff
                                      Finally Near A Breaking
                                      Point?
                                     Dollar At Key Resistance,
                                      S&P 500 Rally May Lose
                                      Steam

    TRADING TIPS                     Euro-Zone Producer Prices
                                      Continue to Decline
   SELL EURUSD
                                 Political Allegations in
    BELLOW 1.3540 tgs            Italy and Spain Send Euro
    1.3526/1.3512 sl             Below 1.3600
    1.3565
                           In only six months, Forex traders have heard
                           sentimental chatter about the Euro-zone flip from talks

   BUY USDJPY ABOW        of an imminent Euro breakup to predictions of a Euro-
                           zone recovery by the end of the year. That sharp turn
    93.20 tgt              in sentiment was accompanied by a 1500 point rally in

    93.36/93.52 SL 92.05   Euro trading against the US Dollar. However, the speed
                           of the change in sentiment has left skeptics waiting for
                           a story to reinforce their doubts over the recovery.
   SELL GBPUSD BELOW
    1.5674 tgt
    1.5660/1.5646 SL
    1.5700
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO                                            +91 9752199966
                               HOURLYEURUSD CHART
                                HOURLY EURUSD CHART
                                        




ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3645
HIGH: 1.3649
LOW: 1.3656
CLOSE: 1.3563

    EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
    REVERSAL
    STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
    MACD =>. -0009(BEARISH SIGNAL)
    RSI => 35(BEARISH SIGNAL)
                                HOURLY USDJPY CHART
                           HOURLY USDJPY CHART




ANALYSIS
OPEN: 92.76
HIGH: 93.18
LOW: 92.49
CLOSE: 92.83

    USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD
    TREND: BULLISH
    STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
    MACD => 0002( BULLISH SIGNAL)
    RSI =>58(BULLISH SIGNAL)
                          HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
                            HOURLY GBPUSD CHART




ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5701
HIGH: 1.5740
LOW: 1.5693
CLOSE: 1.5729

    GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
    TREND: BEARISH
    STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
    MACD => -.0005( BEARISH SIGNAL)
    RSI =>     45(BEARISH SIGNAL)
                            HOURLY EURGBP CHART
                          HOURLY EURGBP CHART




ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8690
HIGH: 0.8693
LOW: 0.8622
CLOSE: 0.8623

    EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS
    TREND: BULLISH
    STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
    MACD =>.0022(BULLISH SIGNAL)
    RSI =>52(BULLISH SIGNAL)




www.epicresearch.co                               + 91 9752199966
                       HOURLY USDINDEX CHART




ANALYSIS
OPEN: 79.2030
HIGH: 79.5060
LOW: 79.1790
CLOSE: 79.4540

    USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD
    TREND: BULLISH
    STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
    MACD =>0.0125(BULLISH SIGNAL)
    RSI =>68(BULLISH SIGNAL)




                       ECONOMIC CALENDER
Date    Time    Currency            Event          Importance   Actual   Forecast   Previous   Notes

                           CNY Non-
Sun
        01:00              manufacturing PMI        Medium      56.2                 56.1
Feb 3
                           (JAN)

                           AUD TD Securities
        23:30                                       Medium      2.5%                 2.4%
                           Inflation (YoY) (JAN)

                           AUD TD Securities
        23:30                                         Low       0.3%                 0.4%
                           Inflation (MoM) (JAN)

                           JPY Monetary Base
        23:50                                         Low       10.9%               11.8%
                           (YoY) (JAN)

Mon                        GBP Halifax House
Feb 4
                                                      Low                 1.6%      -0.3%
                           Price (3MoY) (JAN)

                           GBP Halifax Plc House
                           Prices s.a. (MoM)          Low                  0%        1.3%
                           (JAN)

                           NZD ANZ Commodity
        00:00                                         Low       0.3%                 1.0%
                           Price (JAN)

                           GBP Lloyds Business
        00:01                                         Low        15                   20
                           Barometer (JAN)

                           AUD ANZ Job
        00:30              Advertisements (MoM)       Low       -0.9%               -2.80%
                           (JAN)

                           AUD Building
        00:30              Approvals (MoM)            Low       -4.4%     1.0%       3.4%
                           (DEC)

                           AUD Building
        00:30                                         Low       9.3%     14.9%      14.1%
                           Approvals (YoY) (DEC)

                           CHF UBS Real Estate
        07:00                                         Low       1.11                 1.02
                           Bubble Index (4Q)

                           EUR Euro-Zone Sentix
        09:30              Investor Confidence      Medium       -3.9      -1.7        -7
                           (FEB)
                           GBP Purchasing
        09:30              Manager Index            Medium      48.7      49.2       48.7
                           Construction (JAN)
                           EUR Euro-Zone
        10:00              Producer Price Index      High       2.1%      2.1%       2.1%
                           (YoY) (DEC)
                           EUR Euro-Zone
        10:00              Producer Price Index     Medium      -0.2%    -0.2%      -0.2%
                           (MoM) (DEC)
                           EUR German
                           Chancellor Merkel and
        14:45                                       Medium
                           Spanish PM Rajoy Hold
                           Press Conference

                           USD Factory Orders
        15:00                                       Medium                2.3%       0.0%
                           (DEC)

                           NZD Average Hourly
        21:45                                       Medium                0.4%       1.4%
                           Earnings (QoQ) (4Q)

                           NZD Labor Cost
        21:45              Private Sector (QoQ)       Low                 0.5%       0.5%
                           (4Q)

                           NZD Private Wages ex
        21:45                                         Low                 0.5%       0.5%
                           Overtime (QoQ) (4Q)
                AUD AiG Performance
        22:30                             Medium            43.2
                of Service Index (JAN)

 Tue            GBP BRC Sales Like-
        00:01                              Low              0.3%
Feb 5           For-Like YoY (JAN)

                AUD House Price Index
        00:30                             Medium   0.3%     0.3%
                (QoQ) (4Q)

                AUD House Price Index
        00:30                             Medium   0.9%     0.3%
                (YoY) (4Q)

                AUD Trade Balance
        00:30   (Australian dollar)       Medium   -800M   -2637M
                (DEC)

                CNY HSBC Services
        01:45                             Medium            51.7
                PMI (JAN)

                AUD Reserve Bank of
        03:30   Australia Rate Decision    High    3.00%   3.00%
                (FEB 5)

                CHF Trade Balance
        07:00                             Medium   2.00B   2.90B
                (Swiss franc) (DEC)

                CHF Exports (MoM)
        07:00                              Low              6.0%
                (DEC)

                CHF Imports (MoM)
        07:00                              Low              0.2%
                (DEC)

                EUR Italian Purchasing
        08:45   Manager Index             Medium   45.8     45.6
                Services (JAN)
                EUR French
        08:50   Purchasing Manager        Medium   43.6     43.6
                Index Services (JAN F)
                GBP Purchasing
        09:30   Manager Index             Medium   49.5     48.9
                Services (JAN)

                GBP Official Reserves
        09:30                              Low             -$350M
                (Changes) (JAN)

                EUR Euro-Zone Retail
        10:00                              High    -1.4%   -2.6%
                Sales (YoY) (DEC)

                EUR Euro-Zone Retail
        10:00                             Medium   -0.5%    0.1%
                Sales (MoM) (DEC)

                USD ISM Non-
        15:00   Manufacutring             Medium   55.0     55.7
                Composite (JAN)

                USD IBD/TIPP
        15:00   Economic Optimism          Low     46.5     46.5
                (FEB)

                GBP New Car
Wed
                Registrations (YoY)        Low              3.7%
Feb 6
                (JAN)

                GBP BRC Shop Price
        00:01                              Low              1.5%
                Index (YoY) (JAN)

                AUD Retail Sales Ex
        00:30                             Medium   0.3%    -0.1%
                Inflation(QoQ) (4Q)

                AUD Retail Sales s.a.
        00:30                             Medium   0.3%    -0.1%
                (MoM) (DEC)
                JPY BOJ Board
        01:30                              Low
                Member Sato Speech

                EUR German Factory
        11:00   Orders n.s.a. (YoY)       Medium   -1.2%    -1.0%
                (DEC)
                EUR German Factory
        11:00   Orders s.a. (MoM)          Low     0.7%     -1.8%
                (DEC)

                USD MBA Mortgage
        12:00                              Low              -8.1%
                Applications (FEB 1)

                CAD Ivey Purchasing
        15:00   Managers Index SA         Medium   53.8      52.8
                (JAN)
                USD DOE Cushing OK
        15:30   Crude Inventory (FEB       Low              284K
                1)

                USD DOE U.S. Crude
        15:30                              Low              5947K
                Oil Inventories (FEB 1)

                USD DOE U.S.
        15:30   Distillate Inventory       Low              -2315K
                (FEB 1)
                USD DOE U.S.
        15:30   Gasoline Inventories       Low              -956K
                (FEB 1)

                NZD Employment
        21:45                             Medium            -0.4%
                Change (QoQ) (4Q)

                NZD Employment
        21:45                             Medium            0.0%
                Change (YoY) (4Q)

                NZD Unemployment
        21:45                             Medium            7.3%
                Rate (4Q)

                NZD Participation Rate
        21:45                              Low              68.4%
                (QoQ) (4Q)

                AUD AiG Performance
        22:30   of Construction Index     Medium             38.8
                (JAN)

                JPY Machine Orders
        23:50                             Medium   -0.9%    3.9%
                (MoM) (DEC)

                JPY Machine Orders
        23:50                             Medium   -4.0%    0.3%
                (YoY) (DEC)

                JPY Foreign Buying
        23:50   Japan Bonds (Yen)          Low             -¥228.8B
                (FEB 1)

                JPY Foreign Buying
        23:50   Japan Stocks (Yen)         Low             ¥248.6B
                (FEB 1)

                JPY Japan Buying
        23:50   Foreign Bonds (Yen)        Low             ¥663.1B
                (FEB 1)

                JPY Japan Buying
        23:50   Foreign Stocks (Yen)       Low             -¥254.1B
                (FEB 1)

                JPY Official Reserve
        23:50                              Low             $1268.1B
                Assets (JAN)

                EUR German
Thu
                Wholesale Price Index      Low              0.0%
Feb 7
                (MoM) (JAN)
        EUR German
        Wholesale Price Index     Low               3.2%
        (YoY) (JAN)

        AUD Employment
00:30                             High     6.0K     -5.5K
        Change (JAN)

        AUD Unemployment
00:30                             High     5.5%     5.4%
        Rate (JAN)

        AUD Full Time
00:30   Employment Change        Medium            -13.8K
        (JAN)

        AUD NAB Business
00:30                            Medium              -2
        Confidence (4Q)

        AUD Part Time
00:30   Employment Change        Medium             8.3K
        (JAN)

        AUD Participation Rate
00:30                             Low     65.1%    65.1%
        (JAN)

        JPY Leading Index
05:00                            Medium    93.6     92.1
        (DEC P)

        JPY Coincident Index
05:00                             Low      92.6     90.2
        (DEC P)

        AUD Foreign Reserves
05:30   (Australian dollar)       Low              A$47.3B
        (JAN)

        CHF SECO Consumer
06:45                            Medium    -12       -17
        Confidence (JAN)

        EUR French Trade
07:45                             Low     -4200M   -4334M
        Balance (euros) (DEC)

        CHF Foreign Currency
08:00                             Low     428.5B   427.2B
        Reserves (JAN)

        GBP Industrial
09:30   Production (YoY)         Medium   -2.2%     -2.4%
        (DEC)
        GBP Manufacturing
09:30   Production (YoY)         Medium   -2.6%     -2.1%
        (DEC)
        GBP Visible Trade
09:30   Balance (Pounds)         Medium   -£9000   -£9164
        (DEC)
        GBP Industrial
09:30   Production (MoM)          Low      0.7%     0.3%
        (DEC)

        GBP Manufacturing
09:30   Production (MoM)          Low      0.6%     -0.3%
        (DEC)

        GBP Total Trade
09:30   Balance (Pounds)          Low     -£3300   -£3466
        (DEC)

        GBP Trade Balance
09:30   Non EU (Pounds)           Low     -£4300   -£4519
        (DEC)

        EUR European
        Commission Releases
10:00                            Medium
        Economic Growth
        Forecasts (Table)
        EUR German Industrial
11:00   Production n.s.a. and   Medium    -0.5%      -2.9%
        w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC)
        EUR German Industrial
11:00   Production s.a. (MoM)    Low      0.2%       0.2%
        (DEC)

        GBP BOE Asset
12:00                            High     375B       375B
        Purchase Target (FEB)

        GBP Bank of England
12:00                            High     0.5%       0.50%
        Rate Decision (FEB 7)

        EUR European Central
12:45   Bank Rate Decision       High     0.75%      0.75%
        (FEB 7)

        EUR ECB Deposit
12:45                            Low      0.0%       0.00%
        Facility Rate (FEB 7)

        CAD New Housing
13:30   Price Index (YoY)       Medium               2.2%
        (DEC)

        USD Initial Jobless
13:30                           Medium    360K       368K
        Claims (FEB 3)

        CAD Building Permits
13:30                            Low                 -17.9%
        (MoM) (DEC)

        CAD New Housing
13:30   Price Index (MoM)        Low      0.1%       0.1%
        (DEC)

        USD Continuing Claims
13:30                            Low      3187K      3197K
        (JAN 27)

        USD Non-Farm
13:30                            Low      -1.0%      2.9%
        Productivity (4Q P)

        USD Unit Labor Costs
13:30                            Low      3.0%       -1.9%
        (4Q P)

        GBP NIESR Gross
15:00   Domestic Product        Medium               -0.3%
        Estimate (JAN)
        USD EIA Natural Gas
15:30   Storage Change (FEB      Low                  -194
        1)

        USD Consumer Credit
20:00                           Medium   $14.500B   $16.045B
        (DEC)

        JPY Trade Balance -
23:50   BOP Basis (Yen)         Medium   -¥560.3B   -¥847.5B
        (DEC)

        JPY Adjusted Current
23:50   Account Total (Yen)      Low     ¥235.8B    ¥225.9B
        (DEC)

        JPY Bank Lending
23:50                            Low                 1.4%
        Banks ex-Trust (JAN)

        JPY Bank Lending incl
23:50                            Low                 1.2%
        Trusts (YoY) (JAN)

        JPY Current Account
23:50                            Low     -154.3%    -276.4%
        Balance (YoY) (DEC)

        JPY Current Account
23:50                            Low     -¥141.1B   -¥222.4B
        Total (Yen) (DEC)
                JPY Housing Loans
        23:50                              Low                3.0%
                (YoY) (4Q)

 Fri            CNY Exports (YoY)
                                          Medium   17.1%     14.1%
Feb 8           (JAN)

                CNY Imports (YoY)
                                          Medium   23.5%      6.0%
                (JAN)

                CNY Trade Balance         Medium   $24.20B   $31.62B
                (USD) (JAN)

                JPY Bankruptcies
        04:30                             Medium             -13.8%
                (YoY) (JAN)

                JPY Eco Watchers
        05:00                             Medium     48       45.8
                Survey: Current (JAN)

                JPY Eco Watchers
        05:00                             Medium               51
                Survey: Outlook (JAN)

                CNY Consumer Price
        05:30                              High     2.1%      2.5%
                Index (YoY) (JAN)

                CNY Producer Price
        05:30                             Medium    -1.6%     -1.9%
                Index (YoY) (JAN)

                CHF Unemployment
        06:45                             Medium    3.4%      3.3%
                Rate (JAN)

                CHF Unemployment
        06:45                             Medium    3.1%      3.0%
                Rate s.a. (JAN)

                EUR German Trade
        07:00                             Medium    15.0B     17.0B
                Balance (euros) (DEC)

                EUR German Current
        07:00                              Low      17.0B     15.3B
                Account (euros) (DEC)

                EUR German Exports
        07:00                              Low      1.4%      -3.4%
                s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

                EUR German Imports
        07:00                              Low      1.6%      -3.7%
                s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

                EUR Bank of France
        07:30   Business Sentiment        Medium               95
                (JAN)
                EUR French Central
        07:45   Government Balance         Low               -103.4B
                (euros) (DEC)

                CHF Retail Sales
        08:15                             Medium              2.9%
                (Real) (YoY) (DEC)

                EUR Italian Industrial
        09:00   Production n.s.a. (YoY)    Low                -7.6%
                (DEC)

                EUR Italian Industrial
        09:00   Production s.a. (MoM)      Low      0.2%      -1.0%
                (DEC)
                EUR Italian Industrial
        09:00   Production w.d.a. (YoY)    Low                -7.6%
                (DEC)

                CAD Housing Starts
        13:15                             Medium   195.0K    198.0K
                (JAN)

                CAD Net Change in
        13:30                              High     4.0K      39.8K
                Employment (JAN)
                      CAD Unemployment
    13:30                                       High     7.2%         7.1%
                      Rate (JAN)

                      CAD Full Time
    13:30             Employment Change        Medium                 41.2
                      (JAN)
                      CAD Part Time
    13:30             Employment Change        Medium                 -1.4
                      (JAN)

                      CAD Participation Rate
    13:30                                      Medium                 66.8
                      (JAN)

                      USD Trade Balance
    13:30                                      Medium   -$46.0B      -$48.7B
                      (DEC)

                      CAD International
                      Merchandise Trade
    13:30                                       Low     -1.50B       -1.96B
                      (Canadian dollar)
                      (DEC)

                      USD Wholesale
    15:00                                       Low      0.4%         0.6%
                      Inventories (DEC)




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