VIEWS: 4 PAGES: 15 CATEGORY: Financing POSTED ON: 2/5/2013
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DAILY I FOREX REPORT 5th FEBRUARY 2013 WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966 HEADLINES Is The Japanese Yen Selloff Finally Near A Breaking Point? Dollar At Key Resistance, S&P 500 Rally May Lose Steam TRADING TIPS Euro-Zone Producer Prices Continue to Decline SELL EURUSD Political Allegations in BELLOW 1.3540 tgs Italy and Spain Send Euro 1.3526/1.3512 sl Below 1.3600 1.3565 In only six months, Forex traders have heard sentimental chatter about the Euro-zone flip from talks BUY USDJPY ABOW of an imminent Euro breakup to predictions of a Euro- zone recovery by the end of the year. That sharp turn 93.20 tgt in sentiment was accompanied by a 1500 point rally in 93.36/93.52 SL 92.05 Euro trading against the US Dollar. However, the speed of the change in sentiment has left skeptics waiting for a story to reinforce their doubts over the recovery. SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5674 tgt 1.5660/1.5646 SL 1.5700 WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966 HOURLYEURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.3645 HIGH: 1.3649 LOW: 1.3656 CLOSE: 1.3563 EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD REVERSAL STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>. -0009(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 35(BEARISH SIGNAL) HOURLY USDJPY CHART HOURLY USDJPY CHART ANALYSIS OPEN: 92.76 HIGH: 93.18 LOW: 92.49 CLOSE: 92.83 USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD => 0002( BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>58(BULLISH SIGNAL) HOURLY GBPUSD CHART HOURLY GBPUSD CHART ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.5701 HIGH: 1.5740 LOW: 1.5693 CLOSE: 1.5729 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD => -.0005( BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 45(BEARISH SIGNAL) HOURLY EURGBP CHART HOURLY EURGBP CHART ANALYSIS OPEN: 0.8690 HIGH: 0.8693 LOW: 0.8622 CLOSE: 0.8623 EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD =>.0022(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>52(BULLISH SIGNAL) www.epicresearch.co + 91 9752199966 HOURLY USDINDEX CHART ANALYSIS OPEN: 79.2030 HIGH: 79.5060 LOW: 79.1790 CLOSE: 79.4540 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>0.0125(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>68(BULLISH SIGNAL) ECONOMIC CALENDER Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes CNY Non- Sun 01:00 manufacturing PMI Medium 56.2 56.1 Feb 3 (JAN) AUD TD Securities 23:30 Medium 2.5% 2.4% Inflation (YoY) (JAN) AUD TD Securities 23:30 Low 0.3% 0.4% Inflation (MoM) (JAN) JPY Monetary Base 23:50 Low 10.9% 11.8% (YoY) (JAN) Mon GBP Halifax House Feb 4 Low 1.6% -0.3% Price (3MoY) (JAN) GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) Low 0% 1.3% (JAN) NZD ANZ Commodity 00:00 Low 0.3% 1.0% Price (JAN) GBP Lloyds Business 00:01 Low 15 20 Barometer (JAN) AUD ANZ Job 00:30 Advertisements (MoM) Low -0.9% -2.80% (JAN) AUD Building 00:30 Approvals (MoM) Low -4.4% 1.0% 3.4% (DEC) AUD Building 00:30 Low 9.3% 14.9% 14.1% Approvals (YoY) (DEC) CHF UBS Real Estate 07:00 Low 1.11 1.02 Bubble Index (4Q) EUR Euro-Zone Sentix 09:30 Investor Confidence Medium -3.9 -1.7 -7 (FEB) GBP Purchasing 09:30 Manager Index Medium 48.7 49.2 48.7 Construction (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone 10:00 Producer Price Index High 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% (YoY) (DEC) EUR Euro-Zone 10:00 Producer Price Index Medium -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% (MoM) (DEC) EUR German Chancellor Merkel and 14:45 Medium Spanish PM Rajoy Hold Press Conference USD Factory Orders 15:00 Medium 2.3% 0.0% (DEC) NZD Average Hourly 21:45 Medium 0.4% 1.4% Earnings (QoQ) (4Q) NZD Labor Cost 21:45 Private Sector (QoQ) Low 0.5% 0.5% (4Q) NZD Private Wages ex 21:45 Low 0.5% 0.5% Overtime (QoQ) (4Q) AUD AiG Performance 22:30 Medium 43.2 of Service Index (JAN) Tue GBP BRC Sales Like- 00:01 Low 0.3% Feb 5 For-Like YoY (JAN) AUD House Price Index 00:30 Medium 0.3% 0.3% (QoQ) (4Q) AUD House Price Index 00:30 Medium 0.9% 0.3% (YoY) (4Q) AUD Trade Balance 00:30 (Australian dollar) Medium -800M -2637M (DEC) CNY HSBC Services 01:45 Medium 51.7 PMI (JAN) AUD Reserve Bank of 03:30 Australia Rate Decision High 3.00% 3.00% (FEB 5) CHF Trade Balance 07:00 Medium 2.00B 2.90B (Swiss franc) (DEC) CHF Exports (MoM) 07:00 Low 6.0% (DEC) CHF Imports (MoM) 07:00 Low 0.2% (DEC) EUR Italian Purchasing 08:45 Manager Index Medium 45.8 45.6 Services (JAN) EUR French 08:50 Purchasing Manager Medium 43.6 43.6 Index Services (JAN F) GBP Purchasing 09:30 Manager Index Medium 49.5 48.9 Services (JAN) GBP Official Reserves 09:30 Low -$350M (Changes) (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Retail 10:00 High -1.4% -2.6% Sales (YoY) (DEC) EUR Euro-Zone Retail 10:00 Medium -0.5% 0.1% Sales (MoM) (DEC) USD ISM Non- 15:00 Manufacutring Medium 55.0 55.7 Composite (JAN) USD IBD/TIPP 15:00 Economic Optimism Low 46.5 46.5 (FEB) GBP New Car Wed Registrations (YoY) Low 3.7% Feb 6 (JAN) GBP BRC Shop Price 00:01 Low 1.5% Index (YoY) (JAN) AUD Retail Sales Ex 00:30 Medium 0.3% -0.1% Inflation(QoQ) (4Q) AUD Retail Sales s.a. 00:30 Medium 0.3% -0.1% (MoM) (DEC) JPY BOJ Board 01:30 Low Member Sato Speech EUR German Factory 11:00 Orders n.s.a. (YoY) Medium -1.2% -1.0% (DEC) EUR German Factory 11:00 Orders s.a. (MoM) Low 0.7% -1.8% (DEC) USD MBA Mortgage 12:00 Low -8.1% Applications (FEB 1) CAD Ivey Purchasing 15:00 Managers Index SA Medium 53.8 52.8 (JAN) USD DOE Cushing OK 15:30 Crude Inventory (FEB Low 284K 1) USD DOE U.S. Crude 15:30 Low 5947K Oil Inventories (FEB 1) USD DOE U.S. 15:30 Distillate Inventory Low -2315K (FEB 1) USD DOE U.S. 15:30 Gasoline Inventories Low -956K (FEB 1) NZD Employment 21:45 Medium -0.4% Change (QoQ) (4Q) NZD Employment 21:45 Medium 0.0% Change (YoY) (4Q) NZD Unemployment 21:45 Medium 7.3% Rate (4Q) NZD Participation Rate 21:45 Low 68.4% (QoQ) (4Q) AUD AiG Performance 22:30 of Construction Index Medium 38.8 (JAN) JPY Machine Orders 23:50 Medium -0.9% 3.9% (MoM) (DEC) JPY Machine Orders 23:50 Medium -4.0% 0.3% (YoY) (DEC) JPY Foreign Buying 23:50 Japan Bonds (Yen) Low -¥228.8B (FEB 1) JPY Foreign Buying 23:50 Japan Stocks (Yen) Low ¥248.6B (FEB 1) JPY Japan Buying 23:50 Foreign Bonds (Yen) Low ¥663.1B (FEB 1) JPY Japan Buying 23:50 Foreign Stocks (Yen) Low -¥254.1B (FEB 1) JPY Official Reserve 23:50 Low $1268.1B Assets (JAN) EUR German Thu Wholesale Price Index Low 0.0% Feb 7 (MoM) (JAN) EUR German Wholesale Price Index Low 3.2% (YoY) (JAN) AUD Employment 00:30 High 6.0K -5.5K Change (JAN) AUD Unemployment 00:30 High 5.5% 5.4% Rate (JAN) AUD Full Time 00:30 Employment Change Medium -13.8K (JAN) AUD NAB Business 00:30 Medium -2 Confidence (4Q) AUD Part Time 00:30 Employment Change Medium 8.3K (JAN) AUD Participation Rate 00:30 Low 65.1% 65.1% (JAN) JPY Leading Index 05:00 Medium 93.6 92.1 (DEC P) JPY Coincident Index 05:00 Low 92.6 90.2 (DEC P) AUD Foreign Reserves 05:30 (Australian dollar) Low A$47.3B (JAN) CHF SECO Consumer 06:45 Medium -12 -17 Confidence (JAN) EUR French Trade 07:45 Low -4200M -4334M Balance (euros) (DEC) CHF Foreign Currency 08:00 Low 428.5B 427.2B Reserves (JAN) GBP Industrial 09:30 Production (YoY) Medium -2.2% -2.4% (DEC) GBP Manufacturing 09:30 Production (YoY) Medium -2.6% -2.1% (DEC) GBP Visible Trade 09:30 Balance (Pounds) Medium -£9000 -£9164 (DEC) GBP Industrial 09:30 Production (MoM) Low 0.7% 0.3% (DEC) GBP Manufacturing 09:30 Production (MoM) Low 0.6% -0.3% (DEC) GBP Total Trade 09:30 Balance (Pounds) Low -£3300 -£3466 (DEC) GBP Trade Balance 09:30 Non EU (Pounds) Low -£4300 -£4519 (DEC) EUR European Commission Releases 10:00 Medium Economic Growth Forecasts (Table) EUR German Industrial 11:00 Production n.s.a. and Medium -0.5% -2.9% w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC) EUR German Industrial 11:00 Production s.a. (MoM) Low 0.2% 0.2% (DEC) GBP BOE Asset 12:00 High 375B 375B Purchase Target (FEB) GBP Bank of England 12:00 High 0.5% 0.50% Rate Decision (FEB 7) EUR European Central 12:45 Bank Rate Decision High 0.75% 0.75% (FEB 7) EUR ECB Deposit 12:45 Low 0.0% 0.00% Facility Rate (FEB 7) CAD New Housing 13:30 Price Index (YoY) Medium 2.2% (DEC) USD Initial Jobless 13:30 Medium 360K 368K Claims (FEB 3) CAD Building Permits 13:30 Low -17.9% (MoM) (DEC) CAD New Housing 13:30 Price Index (MoM) Low 0.1% 0.1% (DEC) USD Continuing Claims 13:30 Low 3187K 3197K (JAN 27) USD Non-Farm 13:30 Low -1.0% 2.9% Productivity (4Q P) USD Unit Labor Costs 13:30 Low 3.0% -1.9% (4Q P) GBP NIESR Gross 15:00 Domestic Product Medium -0.3% Estimate (JAN) USD EIA Natural Gas 15:30 Storage Change (FEB Low -194 1) USD Consumer Credit 20:00 Medium $14.500B $16.045B (DEC) JPY Trade Balance - 23:50 BOP Basis (Yen) Medium -¥560.3B -¥847.5B (DEC) JPY Adjusted Current 23:50 Account Total (Yen) Low ¥235.8B ¥225.9B (DEC) JPY Bank Lending 23:50 Low 1.4% Banks ex-Trust (JAN) JPY Bank Lending incl 23:50 Low 1.2% Trusts (YoY) (JAN) JPY Current Account 23:50 Low -154.3% -276.4% Balance (YoY) (DEC) JPY Current Account 23:50 Low -¥141.1B -¥222.4B Total (Yen) (DEC) JPY Housing Loans 23:50 Low 3.0% (YoY) (4Q) Fri CNY Exports (YoY) Medium 17.1% 14.1% Feb 8 (JAN) CNY Imports (YoY) Medium 23.5% 6.0% (JAN) CNY Trade Balance Medium $24.20B $31.62B (USD) (JAN) JPY Bankruptcies 04:30 Medium -13.8% (YoY) (JAN) JPY Eco Watchers 05:00 Medium 48 45.8 Survey: Current (JAN) JPY Eco Watchers 05:00 Medium 51 Survey: Outlook (JAN) CNY Consumer Price 05:30 High 2.1% 2.5% Index (YoY) (JAN) CNY Producer Price 05:30 Medium -1.6% -1.9% Index (YoY) (JAN) CHF Unemployment 06:45 Medium 3.4% 3.3% Rate (JAN) CHF Unemployment 06:45 Medium 3.1% 3.0% Rate s.a. (JAN) EUR German Trade 07:00 Medium 15.0B 17.0B Balance (euros) (DEC) EUR German Current 07:00 Low 17.0B 15.3B Account (euros) (DEC) EUR German Exports 07:00 Low 1.4% -3.4% s.a. (MoM) (DEC) EUR German Imports 07:00 Low 1.6% -3.7% s.a. (MoM) (DEC) EUR Bank of France 07:30 Business Sentiment Medium 95 (JAN) EUR French Central 07:45 Government Balance Low -103.4B (euros) (DEC) CHF Retail Sales 08:15 Medium 2.9% (Real) (YoY) (DEC) EUR Italian Industrial 09:00 Production n.s.a. (YoY) Low -7.6% (DEC) EUR Italian Industrial 09:00 Production s.a. (MoM) Low 0.2% -1.0% (DEC) EUR Italian Industrial 09:00 Production w.d.a. (YoY) Low -7.6% (DEC) CAD Housing Starts 13:15 Medium 195.0K 198.0K (JAN) CAD Net Change in 13:30 High 4.0K 39.8K Employment (JAN) CAD Unemployment 13:30 High 7.2% 7.1% Rate (JAN) CAD Full Time 13:30 Employment Change Medium 41.2 (JAN) CAD Part Time 13:30 Employment Change Medium -1.4 (JAN) CAD Participation Rate 13:30 Medium 66.8 (JAN) USD Trade Balance 13:30 Medium -$46.0B -$48.7B (DEC) CAD International Merchandise Trade 13:30 Low -1.50B -1.96B (Canadian dollar) (DEC) USD Wholesale 15:00 Low 0.4% 0.6% Inventories (DEC) www.epicresearch.co + 91 9752199966 Disclaimer The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. 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