LOG CABIN REPUBLICANS IN OHIO Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. June 29, 2005, Rewritten In the 2004 general election, Ohio was one of several states in which A Constitutional amendment prohibiting gay marriage appeared on the ballot. This is widely believed to have resulted in an unprecedented turnout among rural white evangelical Christians, which helped George W. Bush win the presidential election. In Ohio, the proposition was known as “Issue One.” To investigate the matter, I prepared a table comparing the vote for President with the vote on Issue One, county by county. State wide, Issue One received 61.71% of the vote, whereas Bush, officially, is reputed to have received 50.81% of the vote, a differential of 10.90%. Bush ran 469,567 votes (14.10%) behind the “Yes” votes on Issue One, Kerry ran 675,705 votes (32.71%) ahead of the “No” votes on Issue One. ISSUE ONE, STATE WIDE TOTALS Bush Yes on 1 Differential 2,859,768 3,329,335 -469,567 50.81% 61.71% 14.10% Kerry No on 1 Differential 2,741,167 2,065,462 675,705 48.71% 38.29% 32.71%
However, when I looked at the county totals, I discovered that there were eleven counties in which Bush actually received more votes than Issue One. In three of these counties (Clermont, Delaware and Warren), more people actually voted against Issue One than are reported to have voted for Kerry. That is to say, some people must have voted for gay marriage and for George W. Bush, in some of the most conservative counties of Ohio, or else the official results are not true and correct. COMPARISON OF VOTE, PRESIDENTIAL AND ISSUE ONE County Clermont Delaware Warren Bush 62,949 53,143 68,037 Yes on 1 58,172 48,844 63,431 Diff. 4,777 4,299 4,606 Kerry 25,887 27,048 26,044 No on 1 27,108 29,696 27,960 Diff. -1,221 -2,648 -1,916
These counties had come to my attention before. Together with Butler County, they provided Bush with his largest margins of victory in Ohio and, with it, the presidency. PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS, BUSH’S BEST COUNTIES County Butler Warren Clermont Delaware Subtotal State Wide Bush 109,872 68,037 62,949 53,143 294,001 2,859,768 Kerry 56,243 26,044 25,887 27,048 135,222 2,741,167 1 Margin 53,629 41,993 37,062 26,095 158,779 118,601
Bush outpolled Issue One in Butler County as well. carried by 109,779 votes to 51,462.
The proposition
To investigate the matter further, I prepared tables comparing the vote totals for President and for Issue One, for every city, village and township in each of the four counties. Those in which Bush ran far ahead of the “Yes” vote on Issue One, and Kerry ran far behind the “No” vote on Issue One, were singled out for closer examination at the precinct level. To calculate the number of gay marriage supporters who must have voted for Bush, I subtracted the “No” votes on Issue One from Kerry’s total in each precinct where the result was negative. This is an extremely conservative assumption, because it assumes that Bush received the votes of all voters who supported Issue One, and of all who did not vote on Issue One. For each of these who voted for Kerry, and there must have been some, there would have to be yet another gay marriage supporter who voted for Bush. DELAWARE COUNTY In at least seven cities and townships in Delaware County, one cannot account for Bush’s vote totals unless hundreds of gay marriage supporters also voted for Bush. In these seven cities and townships combined, at least 2960 (18.04%) of 16,411 gay marriage supporters also voted for Bush, or else the official results are not true and correct. The percentage is highest in Dublin City, where at least 373 (35.06%) of 1064 gay marriage supporters also voted for Bush, or else the official results are not true and correct: DELAWARE COUNTY, COMPARISON OF VOTE, PRESIDENTIAL AND ISSUE ONE Bush Dublin City Powell City Westerville City Concord Township Genoa Township Liberty Township Orange Township CLERMONT COUNTY In Clermont County there are several cities and towns where Bush received far more votes than Issue One. By far the largest of these are Miami Township, Union Township, and Pierce Township. In Miami Township, Bush ran ahead of the “Yes” votes in all 38 precincts, and Kerry ran behind the “No” votes in 33 of 38 precincts. In seven precincts, at least 600 (25.9% of 2,317) gay marriage supporters voted for Bush, ranging as high as 101 of 306 (33.0%) in Precinct Y, and 122 of 324 (37.7%) in Precinct Z. In the entire 2 2143 3496 2754 2922 7842 5202 6454 Yes 1701 2939 2451 2558 7099 4428 5698 Diff. 442 557 303 364 743 774 756 Kerry 691 1530 1382 1261 3403 2117 3067 No 1064 1968 1631 1540 3991 2675 3542 Diff. -373 -438 -249 -279 -588 -558 -475
township, at least 1,172 gay marriage supporters voted for Bush. Issue One got 67.2% of the vote, while Bush got 73.7% of the vote. MIAMI TOWNSHIP MIAMI MIAMI MIAMI MIAMI MIAMI MIAMI MIAMI TOWNSHIP TOWNSHIP TOWNSHIP TOWNSHIP TOWNSHIP TOWNSHIP TOWNSHIP A B C J X Y Z BUSH 717 622 942 729 954 654 734 KERRY 281 273 230 229 297 205 202 YES 615 508 796 623 792 518 585 NO 342 314 335 302 394 306 324 DIFFERENCE 102 114 146 106 162 136 149 -61 -41 -105 -73 -97 -101 -122
In Union Township, Bush ran ahead of the “Yes” votes in all 40 precincts, and Kerry ran behind the “No” votes in 27 of 40 precincts. In five precincts, at least 329 (23.3% of 1,413) of gay marriage supporters voted for Bush, ranging as high as 76 of 273 (27.8%) in Precinct B1B. In the entire township, at least 609 gay marriage supporters voted for Bush. Issue One got 66.0% of the vote, while Bush got 70.3% of the vote. UNION TOWNSHIP UNION UNION UNION UNION UNION TOWNSHIP TOWNSHIP TOWNSHIP TOWNSHIP TOWNSHIP A E B1B F1F P1P BUSH 889 878 541 527 501 KERRY 260 305 197 151 171 YES 771 746 421 430 421 NO 348 373 273 193 226 DIFFERENCE 118 132 120 97 80 -88 -68 -76 -42 -55
In Pierce Township, Bush ran ahead of the “Yes” votes and Kerry ran behind the “No” votes in 11 of 12 precincts. In the entire township, at least 278 (14.3% of 1,944) voted for Bush. Issue One got 66.56% of the vote, while Bush got 72.16% of the vote. BUTLER COUNTY In Butler County, Bush ran only 93 votes (0.085%) ahead of the “Yes” votes on Issue One, while Kerry ran 4,781 votes (9.3%) ahead of the “No” Votes on Issue One. But even this is inconsistent with the statewide trend, in which Kerry ran 32.71% ahead of the “No” votes, and Bush ran 14.10% behind the “Yes” votes. Some jurisdictions in Butler County show a vote distribution similar to the state wide pattern, for example: Hamilton City, where Kerry ran 30.46% ahead of the “No” votes, and Bush ran 7.88% behind the “Yes” votes; and Middletown City, where Kerry ran 46.51% ahead of the “No” votes, and Bush ran 17.87% behind the “Yes” votes. However, the reverse is true in Liberty Township, West Chester Township, and Oxford City. In West Chester Township, Bush ran ahead of the “Yes” votes in 41 of 45 precincts, and Kerry ran behind the “No” votes in 38 of 45 precincts. In the entire township, out of 29,926 ballots cast, at least 1,213 (12.92% of 9,386) gay marriage supporters voted for Bush, ranging as high as 68 (28.5% of 239) in Precinct 5LR. Issue One got 67.4% of the vote, while Bush got 71.7% of the vote. 3
In Liberty Township, Bush ran ahead of the “Yes” votes in all 20 precincts, and Kerry ran behind the “No” votes in all 20 precincts. In the entire township, at least 713 (16.8% of 4,232) gay marriage supporters voted for Bush, ranging as high as 33.5% (82 of 245) in Precinct 4DF, and 29.1% (121 of 416) in Precinct 4DI. Issue One got 71.9% of the vote, while Bush got 77.3% of the vote. The numbers from West Chester Township and Liberty Township illustrate perfectly why election investigators must examine the results at the town and precinct levels. At the county level, these numbers are offset by the normal vote distributions in Hamilton City and Middletown City. Oxford City is home to Miami University. While Bush ran ahead of the “Yes” votes in all 15 precincts, Kerry still won the city, handily. Issue One was defeated with 63.7% of the vote, while Kerry won 56.3% of the vote. In 2000, Al Gore received only 41.2% of the vote in Oxford City. It stands to reason that a proposal to outlaw gay marriage would encounter strong opposition on the campus of a state college, where many young Republicans might be more tolerant on the matter. WARREN COUNTY In Warren County, six cities and townships stand out as highly suspect: Clear Creek Township, Deerfield Township, Hamilton Township, Lebanon City, Mason City, and Springboro City. These are the same six cities and townships I singled out in my previous paper, entitled “Election Results in Southwestern Ohio,” submitted to the Ohio Supreme Court. I noted that Bush’s inflated margin of victory in Warren County came primarily from these six cities and townships (Bush won a plurality of 28,869 votes in 2004, compared to 19,822 votes in 2000), and that all of them reported extraordinary increases in voter registration (from 59,336 in 2000 to 81,355 in 2004, an increase of 37.1%). WARREN COUNTY, COMPARISON OF VOTE, PRESIDENTIAL AND ISSUE ONE Bush Clear Creek Township Deerfield Township Hamilton Township Lebanon City Mason City Springboro City 4997 11319 6226 5956 10858 5985 Yes 4550 10059 5585 5584 9742 5278 Diff. 447 1260 641 372 1116 707 Kerry 1574 4529 2097 2278 3805 2189 No 1855 5343 2523 2476 4462 2571 Diff. -281 -814 -426 -198 -657 -382
In each of these six jurisdictions, Bush ran well ahead of the “Yes” votes on Issue One, and Kerry ran far behind the “No” votes on Issue One, which is the opposite of the state wide trend exemplified, even in Warren County, in Carlisle City, Franklin City, and Franklin Township. WARREN COUNTY, COMPARISON OF VOTE, PRESIDENTIAL AND ISSUE ONE Bush Carlisle City Franklin City Franklin Township 1341 3124 4562 Yes 1455 3414 4971 4 Diff. -114 -290 -409 Kerry 694 1832 2557 No 503 1406 2006 Diff. 191 426 551
In Lebanon City, the presidential vote closely resembled the vote on Issue One in 8 of 14 precincts, where only 17 gay marriage supporters are needed in order to explain the vote totals for Bush. And yet, in other precincts in the same city, 58 of 196 (29.6%) of gay marriage supporters voted for Bush in Precinct LEB C SEB AFY, and 79 of 282 (28.0%) voted for Bush in Precinct LEB C SW AAT. City wide, out of 8,372 ballots cast, at least 232 gay marriage supporters voted for Bush. Issue One got 69.3% of the vote, while Bush got 72.3% of the vote. LEBANON CITY LEB LEB LEB LEB LEB LEB LEB LEB LEB LEB LEB LEB LEB LEB C C C C C C C C C C C C C C EA AAJ EB AAK M AAL N AAN NM AAM NWA AAO NWB AAP SE AAR SM AAS SW AAT NWC AAQ SEA AFG SEB AFY W AFZ BUSH 313 276 347 497 460 479 544 392 289 623 443 441 510 342 KERRY 150 124 234 164 173 146 202 163 137 203 160 155 138 129 YES 299 255 377 492 449 440 497 384 248 538 423 400 444 338 NO 151 127 185 170 180 159 233 160 165 282 160 181 196 127 DIFFERENCE 14 21 -30 5 11 39 47 8 41 85 20 41 66 4 -1 -3 49 -6 -7 -13 -31 3 -28 -79 0 -26 -58 2
In Springboro City, Bush ran ahead of the “Yes” votes in 12 of 15 precincts, and Kerry ran behind the “No” votes in 11 of 15 precincts. Among these 11 precincts, 67 of 287 (23.3%) of gay marriage supporters voted for Bush in Precinct SPG C SE AFB, 62 of 213 (29.1%) voted for Bush in Precinct SPG C EM AEV, 65 of 224 (29.0%) in Precinct SPG NEA AFN, and 65 of 219 (29.7%) in Precinct SPG C NE AEX. City wide, out of 8,250 ballots cast, at least 441 gay marriage supporters voted for Bush. Issue One got 67.2% of the vote, while Bush got 73.2% of the vote. SPRINGBORO CITY SPG SPG SPG SPG SPG SPG SPG SPG SPG SPG SPG SPG SPG SPG SPG C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C EA AES M AEW NWA AEY SW AFC W AFD EB AET NWB AEZ SE AFB EC AEU NWC AFA EM AEV NE AEX NEA AFN SEA AFO NEB AFX BUSH 323 236 286 312 290 504 290 606 298 373 507 516 537 470 437 KERRY 131 131 104 152 109 151 112 220 144 132 151 159 154 185 154 5 YES 290 240 258 323 291 422 259 507 280 327 413 430 438 419 381 NO 144 110 123 123 101 202 134 287 143 153 213 224 219 208 187 DIFFERENCE 33 -4 28 -11 -1 82 31 99 18 46 94 86 99 51 56 -13 21 -19 29 8 -51 -22 -67 1 -21 -62 -65 -65 -23 -33
In Mason City, Bush ran ahead of the “Yes” votes in all 23 precincts, and Kerry ran behind the “No” votes in all but one precinct. The most egregious example is Precinct MAS C NEA AAY, where 76 of 219 (34.7%) of gay marriage supporters voted for Bush. Issue One got 63.7% of the vote, while Bush got 76.7% of the vote, excluding third parties. City wide, at least 672 (15.1% of 4,462) gay marriage supporters voted for Bush. Issue One got 68.6% of the vote, while Bush got 74.1% of the vote. MASON CITY MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS MAS C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C EA AAU EB AAV M AAX NE AAZ SE ABB SM ABC SWA ABE W ABI SWB ABF EC AAW SWC ABG S ABD NEA AAY SA ABA WA ABH NW AFE SB AFF WB AFL NWA AFP WC AFS NEB AFU NEC AFV SC AFW BUSH 631 368 306 361 585 265 443 621 363 363 477 490 471 490 499 385 456 754 591 574 484 547 334 KERRY 211 184 133 107 193 122 165 233 125 114 163 252 143 196 192 154 162 187 161 196 169 152 91 YES 579 336 293 323 524 251 418 571 335 335 445 465 385 411 451 345 426 645 524 483 437 471 289 NO 232 193 142 128 234 125 175 258 137 128 180 237 219 248 221 183 164 260 211 257 203 209 118 DIFFERENCE 52 32 13 38 61 14 25 50 28 28 32 25 86 79 48 40 30 91 67 91 57 76 45 -21 -9 -9 -21 -41 -3 -10 -25 -12 -14 -17 15 -76 -52 -29 -29 -2 -73 -50 -61 -34 -57 -27
In Clear Creek Township, Bush ran ahead of the “Yes” votes in 8 of 9 precincts, and Kerry ran behind the “No” votes in the same 8 precincts. In the entire township, at least 313 (16.9% of 1,855) gay marriage supporters voted for Bush, ranging as high as 68 (35.6% of 191) in Precinct CLC T WA ABP, and 93 (33.2% of 280) in Precinct CLC T NM ABM. Issue One got 71.0% of the vote, while Bush got 76.0% of the vote. CLEAR CREEK TOWNSHIP CLC CLC CLC CLC CLC CLC CLC CLC CLC T T T T T T T T T EA ABJ EB ABK SA ABN SB ABO WA ABP WB ABQ M ABL NM ABM EC AFK BUSH 744 633 472 482 447 507 656 650 406 KERRY 237 175 141 178 123 207 194 187 132 6 YES 676 589 435 460 361 516 602 533 378 NO 276 210 164 184 191 175 228 280 147 DIFFERENCE 68 44 37 22 86 -9 54 117 28 -39 -35 -23 -6 -68 32 -34 -93 -15
In Deerfield Township, Bush ran ahead of the “Yes” votes in all 25 precincts, and Kerry ran behind the “No” votes in all but one precinct. In the entire township, at least 818 (15.3% of 5,343) gay marriage supporters voted for Bush, ranging as high as 57 (22.2% of 257) in Precinct DEF T SEC ABZ, 54 (24.0% of 225) in DEF T M ABU, and 68 (28.1% of 242) in DEF T SWC ACG. Issue One got 65.3% of the vote, while Bush got 71.4% of the vote. DEERFIELD TOWNSHIP DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T KM ABS LP ABT N ABW SEA ABX SM ACD SW ACH SEB ABY SEC ABZ W ACK M ABU NM ABV WM ACJ EM ABR SMA ACA SWA ACE WMA ACI SMB ACB SWB ACF SMC ACC SWC ACG WMB AFH NMA AFI S AFJ WMC AFM WA AFT BUSH 488 446 738 426 464 523 376 475 482 450 345 555 345 319 484 420 448 377 285 612 466 348 430 564 453 KERRY 150 219 198 185 218 200 175 200 137 171 165 270 132 87 209 178 231 122 139 174 231 133 157 259 189 YES 430 412 638 378 416 461 326 400 416 389 291 522 290 276 459 387 402 340 260 514 429 299 402 489 433 NO 199 241 267 218 245 238 206 257 182 225 197 274 171 123 219 201 266 147 152 242 237 169 180 302 185 DIFFERENCE 58 34 100 48 48 62 50 75 66 61 54 33 55 43 25 33 46 37 25 98 37 49 28 75 20 -49 -22 -69 -33 -27 -38 -31 -57 -45 -54 -32 -4 -39 -36 -10 -23 -35 -25 -13 -68 -6 -36 -23 -43 4
In Hamilton Township, Bush ran ahead of the “Yes” votes in all 10 precincts, and Kerry ran behind the “No” votes in all but one precinct. In the entire township, at least 428 (17.0% of 2,523) gay marriage supporters voted for Bush, ranging as high as 70 of (26.2% of 267) in HAM T S ADI, 69 (27.5% of 251) in HAM T NW ADH, and 82 (33.3% of 246) in Precinct HAM T WB ADK. Issue One got 68.9% of the vote, while Bush got 74.8% of the vote. HAMILTON TOWNSHIP HAM HAM HAM HAM HAM HAM HAM HAM HAM HAM T T T T T T T T T T E ADD NM ADG NW ADH S ADI M ADF WA ADJ WB ADK NMA AFQ WC AFR MA AGA BUSH 485 578 747 662 551 752 665 774 474 538 KERRY 188 158 182 197 193 302 164 260 220 233 7 YES 453 536 676 573 507 634 551 721 442 492 NO 201 194 251 267 216 384 246 293 218 253 DIFFERENCE 32 42 71 89 44 118 114 53 32 46 -13 -36 -69 -70 -23 -82 -82 -33 2 -20
CONCLUSION Actually, I do not really believe that thousands of voters in four Ohio counties, all of them Republican strongholds, went to the polls last November to cast their votes in favor of both gay marriage and George W. Bush. There may have been some voters who did this, but surely not 3500 voters in Delaware County, 2000 in Clermont County, 2000 in Butler County, and 3000 in Warren County. There is a small organization of loyal Republicans, known as the “Log Cabin Republicans,” who happen to be gay, but they declined to endorse George W. Bush for president in 2004 because of his opposition to civil unions. And yet, statistically, there is no way to account for the official election results in these four counties without a minimum of 10,500 voters opposing Issue One while supporting George W. Bush, just as there is no way to account for the official election results in three of these same counties without a minimum of 13,500 voters supporting both Ellen Connally and George W. Bush, or without 65% to 80% of new voters choosing Bush over John F. Kerry. No matter how I look at these election results, the numbers do not add up. The official, certified results cannot be true and correct. It is my professional opinion, having exhaustively studied the election results in these counties, that the true vote counts were altered, and that tens of thousands of votes were shifted from Kerry to Bush.
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