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1._Loris_Sevillo_-_ATTREG

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					                     ATTREG Project (ESPON 2013/1/7)
“The Attractiveness of Regions and Cities for Residents and Visitors”
                             (2010-2012)

                ESPON 2013 Programme - Internal Seminar
           “Crossing Knowledge Frontiers, Serving the Territories”
                     17-18 November 2010 Liège, Belgium

                    A.P. Russo (URV, LP) and L. Servillo (KUL)
LEAD PARTNER
University Rovira i Virgili (ES)

PROJECT PARTNERS
KU Leuven (BE)                           Centre for Tourism Research (DK)
Univ. of Venice Ca’ Foscari (IT)         IGSO (PL)
EURICUR Rotterdam (NL)                   Univ. of Ljubljana (SI)
Univ. of Coimbra (PT)                    Univ. of West England (UK)

RESEARCH SUBCONTRACTOR
Istanbul Technological University (TR)
                 Research background
• Emerging importance in ESPON 2006 results of “soft” factors as drivers
  of regional development
• Acknowledgement in the new geographic and planning literature of the
  intertwining of economic and cultural aspects in determining the
  competitive advantage of regions and cities, and on mobility as an
  epistemological paradigm for the social sciences
• Increased attention in ESPON 2013 to socially and culturally-
  embedded development processes, mobility, and territorial capital as
  a strategic, multidimensional asset to achieve more competitiveness and
  cohesion (new round of projects: DEMIFER, EDORA, FOCI, etc.)
• Growing policy orientation of this research stream
• ESPON 1.3.3 (2004-2006) as the first attempt to “map” attraction factors in
  European regions and to explain their differential capacity to “valorise”
  their attractiveness as a development asset
                     ATTREG Objectives
• To identify the main attraction factors of European cities and regions with
  respect to a wide range of mobile populations
    • not only residents and visitors as a binary (migration flows associated with
      labour vs. leisure) but a continuum of mobilities differentiated by attraction
      factors
• To analyse the spatial effects of attractiveness …
    • globally and in relation with a specific group
• … and to categorise regions accordingly
    • also in relation with other established ESPON regional classifications
• To analyse the possible consequences and scenarios of evolution of this
  situation face to the main trends identified by the ESPON programme
• To evaluate the influence of public policy at different scales in
  stimulating or managing attractiveness so as to reach desired effects
    • in relation to the main European policy documents (e.g.EU2020).
                      Early assumptions
What drives mobility, today?
  – Jobs (yes, but increasingly, it’s firms that follow workers and talents)
  – Convenience – people “vote with their feet” and respond to convenient
    mixes of purchasing power, taxes, services.
  – Quality of life (yes, but different elements matter for different groups of
    mobile population)
     • Safe, “green”, serviced places for families
     • Beautiful (unspoilt, heritage-rich) settings for tourists and some place-
       aware residents
     • Vibrant, exiting, mostly urban centres for young people and “creatives”
     • Highly accessible, connected, wealthy places for business elites
     • Warm, “manufactured”, serviced places for retired people and second
       home owners
  – Social composition of places
     • Some want to be together with their “peer” like some immigrant group and
       mass tourists
     • Some want to avoid them, like allocentric tourists and “pioneers”
                                    Mobility
• If the world was “flat” and dimensionless, everybody would go somewhere
  and stay there. Mostly a large number of people would end up in beautiful,
  safe, well connected cities. And every place would try to “dress” itself to
  attract certain types of people (but some places would have an “acquired
  advantage”) . NOT SO SIMPLE.


What HINDERS mobility, today?
Affective permanences – some people would not move even if they had a better life
 somewhere else. There are fast movers and slow movers.

Dimension externalities. As places attract more and more people, they lose some of
 their advantages – quality of life goes down, prices go up, accessibility may decrease…
 at a certain point “less crowded” places may become more attractive as a spatial affect
 of increased mobility. Mostly, this means that there’s a chance for second-order cities
 and rural areas.

Between-groups (negative) externalities. Just as it may attract them, the
 attraction of certain groups may repel others. Some people do not like to live where
 there are too many immigrants, or too many tourists (but some do).
                     Policy consequences
– At various levels, places / regions / countries may develop “enhancements”
  which are specifically aimed at the attraction of certain “target” groups –
  mostly, the talented new workers and the wealthier tourists. BUT THEY HAVE
  TO BE AWARE OF THE LIMITS AND SPATIAL EFFECTS of such policies,
  which otherwise would in “zero-sum” game

– Urban-rural relations are particularly at stake. Urban growth may establish
  synergies with the capacity of attraction of surrounding urban areas, or
  may result in a negative externality. Thus managing urban-rural relation is
  also about managing attractiveness at the correct regional scale.

– European policies targeting territorial cohesion and smart, sustainable and
  inclusive development have to know what is the foreseeable effect on the
  attractive of regions and the potential responsiveness for certain groups.
  For instance, making a few “European engine places” very accessible may
  lead to their abrupt loss of attractiveness in a very short time (impact of low-
  cost airlines in places like Venice, Barcelona). While pointing at strengthening
  the position of second-order cities may take some weigh off crowded urban
  areas.
Conceptual framework
                Environmental Capital                                          Antropic Capital                                      Economic Capital
          (climate, natural resources, protected                  (monuments and landmarks, quality of the                   (firms and sectors, level of economic
       landscapes, green areas, rural areas and/or                built environment, housing, infrastructure,                 activity, employment, networks and
               settlement structures, etc. )                                    hotels, etc. )                              clusters, innovativeness, investments,
                                                                                                                                         centrality, etc. )


                                             TERRITORIAL CAPITAL (potential assets)
              Social & Cultural Capital                                       Institutional Capital                                    Human Capital
      (population diversity, social networks, gender /             (democracy, efficiency of the system, tax                   (skills and diversity of workforce,
          ethnic participation, crime, academic                       climate, participatory processes,                           scholarisation levels,, etc. )
                    production, cultural                                     accessibility, etc. )
                      activities etc. )




                                  Public decision-makers                                                 Sectoral stakeholders

                                       MOBILISATION (governance processes outcome
Economic                        Associations of categories
                                                                                                       Cultural agencies / NGOs                           Redistribution of
performance                                                                                                                                               resources



                                              Residents                                                         Visitors
                                 (different types by educational level /                      (different types by type of stay / tourism
                                income / skills / mobility profiles / etc.)                         activity / cultural profiles / etc.)




                                    POTENTIAL USERS AND ATTRACTION FACTORS
                                Attraction factors for residents                                 Attraction factors for visitors
                               (accessibility / labour market / quality of                   (accessibility / entertainment offer / quality
                              place / tax climate / security / cultural and                  of place / costs / specific interest facilities /
                                        social dynamism / etc.)                                                   etc.)
         STEP 1                                                STEP 3                                                STEP 2

                                           influence of territorial assets of realised
                                                  attraction of regional users
 Block A variables                                                                                         Block B variables
                                                             Estimation
  (regional users)                                                                                         (territorial capital)
                                                             techniques

                                          dynamic and path-dependency effects
Typology of                                                                                                       Typology of territorial
regional                                                       STEP 4                                              capital endowments
attractiveness                                       ESPON spatial typologies
                                Multivariate analysis and bi-variate cross-tabulation techniques

                                     ATTREG typology of attractive regions and spatial effects


                                                                STEP 5
                                                         Case study analysis
                                              Qualitative analysis of mobilisation factors

                                                                 STEP 6
                                                     Block C variables
                                                   (economic structure)
           Structural model estimation                                                           Qualitative audit of key
                                                                                                 decision-makers
                                                      Scenario analysis



                                         INDICATIONS FOR POLICY
“ASSETS” (dimensions of                                                            “AUDIENCES” (attracted
  territorial capital):                                                              populations):
                                                                                   - High-skilled labour force (mostly
1.   Physical / environmental cap.
                                                                                     from OECD countries)
     -   Environmental amenities, degree
         of protection, climate, etc.                                              - Low-skilled labour force (mostly
                                                                                     from non-OECD countries)
2.   Antropic cap.
                                                                                   - Tourists


3.
     -   Heritage, architecture,
         infrastructure, etc.

     Economic cap.
                                                        ?                                - “traditional” – upscale and
                                                                                           budget
                                                                                         - “unconventional” (new lifestyle
     -   Economic structure, jobs,                                                         mobilities)
         innovativeness, purchasing power,
         etc.

4.   Social & cultural cap.                    1. How do different audiences respond to differences in
     -   Social diversity, participation by       endowments (or changes) in dimensions of territorial capital
         ethnic and gender, cultural           2. How are these phenomena distributed territorially, what are
         activities and infrastructure, etc.
                                                  their local and spatial effects
5.   Human cap.
                                               3. Regional typologies
     -   Skills and diversity of human
         resource pool                             “DESCRIPTIVE”:
                                                   • According to endowments of different classes of territorial capital
6.   Institutional cap.
                                                   • According to mobilised flows (“winner” and “loser” regions)
     -   Governance structures,
         government effectiveness,                 “ANALYTICAL”
         transparency, etc.                        • According to effects (matching different categories or ATTREG categories
                                                     with other ESPON typologies)
                                                   • According to geographical typologies (coastal vs. inland, peripheral vs.
                                                     central, urban vs. rural, ESPON space vs. CEC countries, etc.)
                   Role of case studies
• To obtain fine-grained knowledge about processes of “mobilisation” of
  territorial assets to achieve attractiveness and the role of specific policies
• To explain counter-intuitive results
• To analyse in deep spatial effects (spatial externalities, network effects)
• To conduct intra-regional and qualitative analysis
• To provide a foundation and identify common issues in typologies as
  resulting from clustering and other analytic techniques
      Role of territorial scenario analysis
• What does knowledge about territorial attractiveness and attraction factor
  contributes to established ESPON scenarios?
• How will the attractiveness of cities and regions evolve in the medium-
  long term?
• What is the role of economic factors in generating “equilibria” in the
  spatial distribution of attractiveness?
• What is a desirable “mix” of audiences and how could local and
  European policy “orient” attractiveness to achieve it?
                  Role of policy analysis
• How are main European policy documents incorporating an attention to
  territorial attractiveness
• What are the policy options (also in terms of expected impacts) in re-
  structuring the European map of mobilities?
• What opportunities are there to re-focus European planning and policy
  on attractiveness?

AIM
To develope a much clearer set of ideas about the relationships between
the key endowment factors and different audiences as well as the
‘mobilisation process’
to investigate the local, regional and EU policy conditions that might
influence the mobilisation of assets that attract.
But in particular:
To be able to identify different ‘policy bundles’ (or instruments) in
association with mobilising processes that lead to different outcomes in given
conditions.
                       First steps forward
• Inception report of conceptual and methodological focus, delivered June
  2010 and substantially approved

• A list of variables and a database in construction (assembling different
  sources – ESPON and non-ESPON – and some collection in CEC countries)

• A cartographic base to reproduce the first results

• Contractual stage concluded and first reporting on-going

• First ATTREG International Workshop tomorrow (19 Nov) in Leuven, with
  lecturers and discussants from relevant ESPON projects and other experts

• A web-management tool for the project implemented and a website to be
  opened soon (www.attreg.espon2013.net)
    Database ATTREG (7 months after the start of the project)
                                                                 Number of variables that:

                                                                                                     need to be
                                        Have been
                                                                                       Are subject    compiled/
                                       identified in                   need better
                                                       are available                   to on-going   are likely to
                                         Inception                     specification
                                                                                        inquiries      become
                                           Report
category                                                                                               available

                                            14              12              0                2            0
measuring mobility, flows and change
Environmental capital                       10              8               2                0            0
Antropic capital                            8               5               1                0            2
Economic capital                            11              4               6                0            1
Social/Cultural capital                     6               1               5                0            0
Human capital                               6               6               0                0            0
Institutional capital                       7               3               2                1            1

                                            3               0               0                3            0
Context cross-tabulation variables
totals (of variables)                       65              39              16               6            4
% of all variables                                         60%             25%               9%          6%
                                    Sources used



                                           Databas                           OTHER
                                            e from   ESPON   ESPON   EURO   SOURCE
                                           project    2013    2007   STAT     to be
                                             1.3.3                          specified

No. of variables available in named
                                             2        11      11      16
source
No. of variables needing more
specification/indication of potential                                          16
source
No. of variables for which there are on-
                                                                               5
going inquiries

No. of variables that require additional
                                                                               4
work from ATTREG team to acquire
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!




antonio.russo@urv.cat
loris.servillo@asro.kuleuven.be

				
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