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daily-i-forex-report BY EPIC RESEARCH 1 FEBRUARY 2013

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daily-i-forex-report  BY EPIC RESEARCH 1 FEBRUARY 2013 Powered By Docstoc
					                  DAILY I FOREX REPORT
                      1ST   FEBRUARY 2013




WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO                         +91 9752199966
                                                  HEADLINES


                                     Forex News: Record Low
                                      German Unemployment
                                      Fails to Spark a Euro Rally
                                     Forex Analysis: Sideways
                                      Trade Likely Before Friday
                                      NFP, ISM Data

    TRADING TIPS                     Forex Analysis: US Dollar
                                      Selling Pauses As S&P 500
   BUY EURUSD ABOVE                  Warns Of Weakness
    1.3584 tgs                   Forex News: Record Low
    1.3599/1.3614 sl             German Unemployment
                                 Fails to Spark a Euro Rally
    1.3570
                           German unemployment in January fell by the most in
                           twelve months, and the unemployment rate fell back
   BUY USDJPY BELOW
                           to the lowest point since Germany joined the Euro.
    91.40 tgt              16,000 German workers found employment in January,
                           which was better than expectations for unemployment
    91.56/91.71 SL 91.20
                           to rise by 8 thousand and even better than December’s
                           revised 2 thousand person drop in unemployment. The
                           unemployment rate fell to 6.8%, better than
   SELL GBPUSD BELOW
                           expectations for the rate to remain at 6.9%.
    1.5780 tgt
    1.5760/1.5740 SL
    1.5800
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO                                           +91 9752199966
                             HOURLYEURUSD CHART
                              HOURLY EURUSD CHART
                                      




ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3568
HIGH: 1.3584
LOW: 1.3544
CLOSE: 1.3550

    EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD
    TREND: BULLISH
    STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
    MACD =>. 0005(BULLISH SIGNAL)
    RSI => 70(BULLISH SIGNAL)
                                HOURLY USDJPY CHART
                           HOURLY USDJPY CHART




ANALYSIS
OPEN: 90.78
HIGH: 91.41
LOW: 90.76
CLOSE: 91.01

    USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD
    TREND: BULLISH
    STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
    MACD => 0001( BULLISH SIGNAL)
    RSI =>53(BULLISH SIGNAL)
                          HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
                            HOURLY GBPUSD CHART




ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5797
HIGH: 1.5843
LOW: 1.5783
CLOSE: 1.5784

    GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
    TREND: BEARISH
    STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
    MACD => -.0005( BEARISH SIGNAL)
    RSI =>     45(BEARISH SIGNAL)
                            HOURLY EURGBP CHART
                          HOURLY EURGBP CHART




ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8589
HIGH: 0.8592
LOW: 0.8559
CLOSE: 0.8583

    EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS
    TREND: BULLISH
    STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
    MACD =>.0022(BULLISH SIGNAL)
    RSI =>52(BULLISH SIGNAL)




www.epicresearch.co                               + 91 9752199966
                       HOURLY USDINDEX CHART




ANALYSIS
OPEN: 79.2460
HIGH: 79.3370
LOW: 79.1700
CLOSE: 79.3360

    USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD
    TREND: BULLISH
    STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
    MACD =>-0.0125(BULLISH SIGNAL)
    RSI =>54(BULLISH SIGNAL)




                       ECONOMIC CALENDER
Date     Time    Currency            Event           Importance   Actual   Forecast   Previous   Notes


 Sun                        CNY Industrial Profits
Jan 27
         01:30                                        Medium      5.3%                 3.0%
                            YTD (YoY) (DEC)

                            NZD Performance
         21:30                                          Low       51.5                 54.2
                            Services Index (DEC)

                            JPY Corporate Service
         23:50                                          Low       -0.4%    -0.5%      -0.5%
                            Price (YoY) (DEC)

 Mon                        CNY Leading Index
Jan 28
                                                      Medium                          100.21
                            (DEC)

                            GBP Hometrack
         00:01              Housing Survey (MoM)        Low       0.0%                -0.1%
                            (JAN)

                            GBP Hometrack
         00:01              Housing Survey (YoY)        Low       -0.3%               -0.3%
                            (JAN)

                            EUR Euro-Zone M3
         09:00                                          Low       3.7%      3.8%       3.4%
                            s.a. (3M) (DEC)

                            EUR Euro-Zone M3
         09:00                                          Low       3.3%      3.9%       3.8%
                            s.a. (YoY) (DEC)

                            USD Durable Goods
         13:30                                         High                 2.0%       0.8%
                            Orders (DEC)

                            USD Durables Ex
         13:30                                        Medium                0.8%       1.6%
                            Transportation (DEC)

                            USD Cap Goods
         13:30              Orders Nondef Ex Air        Low                -1.0%       2.6%
                            (DEC)

                            USD Cap Goods Ship
         13:30                                          Low                 0.5%       2.0%
                            Nondef Ex Air (DEC)

                            USD Pending Home
         15:00                                          Low                 0.1%       1.7%
                            Sales (MoM) (DEC)

                            USD Pending Home
         15:00                                        Medium               12.5%       8.9%
                            Sales (YoY) (DEC)

                            USD Dallas Fed
         15:30              Manufacturing Activity      Low                  3.0        6.8
                            (JAN)
                            NZD Trade Balance
         21:45              (New Zealand dollars)     Medium               -105M      -700M
                            (DEC)

                            NZD Balance (YTD)
         21:45              (New Zealand dollars)     Medium               -1870B     -1457B
                            (DEC)

                            NZD Exports (New
         21:45                                          Low                3.98B      3.81B
                            Zealand dollars) (DEC)

                            NZD Imports (New
         21:45                                          Low                4.13B      4.51B
                            Zealand dollars) (DEC)

                            AUD Conference Board
         23:00                                        Medium                           0.2%
                            Leading Index (NOV)

 Tue                        AUD NAB Business
         00:30                                          Low                             -5
Jan 29                      Conditions (DEC)

                            AUD NAB Business
         00:30                                        Medium                            -9
                            Confidence (DEC)
                 JPY Small Business
         05:00                             Medium            43.8
                 Confidence (JAN)

                 EUR German Import
         07:00   Price Index (MoM)          Low     -0.1%   0.0%
                 (DEC)
                 EUR German GfK
         07:00   Consumer Confidence       Medium    5.7     5.6
                 Survey (FEB)
                 EUR German Import
         07:00   Price Index (YoY)          Low     0.9%    1.1%
                 (DEC)

                 USD S&P/CS 20 City
         14:00                              Low     0.7%    0.7%
                 (MoM) s.a. (NOV)

                 USD S&P/Case-Shiller
         14:00   Composite-20 (YoY)         Low     5.6%    4.3%
                 (NOV)
                 USD S&P/Case-Shiller
         14:00   Home Price Index           Low             146.08
                 (NOV)

                 USD Consumer
         15:00                              High     64      65.1
                 Confidence (JAN)

                 NZD Building Permits
         21:45                              Low     6.0%    -5.4%
                 (MoM) (DEC)

                 JPY Retail Trade s.a.
         23:50                              Low     0.4%    0.0%
                 (MoM) (DEC)

                 JPY Retail Trade (YoY)
         23:50                             Medium   0.3%    1.3%
                 (DEC)

                 JPY Large Retailers'
         23:50                             Medium   -1.0%   0.9%
                 Sales (DEC)

                 AUD DEWR Internet
 Wed
         00:00   Skilled Vacancies          Low             -3.5%
Jan 30
                 (MoM) (DEC)

                 CHF UBS Consumption
         07:00                             Medium            1.23
                 Indicator (DEC)

                 CHF KOF Swiss
         08:00                             Medium    1.2     1.28
                 Leading Indicator (JAN)

                 GBP Net Consumer
         09:30                             Medium   0.2B    0.1B
                 Credit (DEC)

                 GBP Net Lending Sec.
         09:30                             Medium   0.6B    -0.2B
                 on Dwellings (DEC)

                 GBP Mortgage
         09:30                             Medium   54.5K   54.0K
                 Approvals (DEC)

                 GBP M4 Money Supply
         09:30                              Low             -0.2%
                 (MoM) (DEC)

                 GBP M4 Money Supply
         09:30                              Low             -2.8%
                 (YoY) (DEC)

                 GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M
         09:30                              Low             4.3%
                 Annualised (DEC)

                 EUR Euro-Zone
         10:00   Economic Confidence        Low     88.2     87
                 (JAN)

                 EUR Euro-Zone
         10:00                              Low      -1     -1.12
                 Business Climate
        Indicator (JAN)

        EUR Euro-Zone
10:00   Industrial Confidence    Low     -13.5    -14.4
        (JAN)

        EUR Euro-Zone
10:00   Consumer Confidence     Medium   -23.9    -23.9
        (JAN F)
        EUR Euro-Zone
10:00   Services Confidence      Low      -9       -9.8
        (JAN)

        USD MBA Mortgage
12:00                            Low              7.0%
        Applications (JAN 25)

        USD ADP Employment
13:15                           Medium   163K     215K
        Change (JAN)

        USD Gross Domestic
13:30   Product (Annualized)     High    1.2%     3.1%
        (4Q A)
        USD Gross Domestic
13:30   Product Price Index      High    1.5%     2.7%
        (4Q A)
        USD Core Personal
        Consumption
13:30                           Medium   1.0%     1.1%
        Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q
        A)

        USD Personal
13:30                           Medium   1.8%     1.6%
        Consumption (4Q A)

        USD DOE U.S. Crude
15:30   Oil Inventories (JAN     Low              2813K
        25)
        USD DOE Cushing OK
15:30   Crude Inventory (JAN     Low              -471K
        25)
        USD DOE U.S.
15:30   Gasoline Inventories     Low             -1738K
        (JAN 25)
        USD DOE U.S.
15:30   Distillate Inventory     Low              508K
        (JAN 25)
        USD Federal Open
19:15   Market Committee Rate    High             0.25%
        Decision (JAN 30)
        NZD Reserve Bank of
20:00   New Zealand Rate         High    2.50%    2.50%
        Decision (JAN 31)
        JPY Japan Buying
23:50   Foreign Bonds (Yen)      Low             -¥35.2B
        (JAN 25)
        JPY Japan Buying
23:50   Foreign Stocks (Yen)     Low             -¥235.3B
        (JAN 25)

        JPY Foreign Buying
23:50   Japan Bonds (Yen)        Low             ¥485.7B
        (JAN 25)

        JPY Foreign Buying
23:50   Japan Stocks (Yen)       Low             ¥196.2B
        (JAN 25)

        JPY Loans & Discounts
23:50                            Low              0.4%
        Corp (YoY) (DEC)
                 JPY Industrial
         23:50   Production (MoM)          Low     4.1%     -1.4%
                 (DEC P)
                 JPY Industrial
         23:50   Production (YoY) (DEC    Medium   -5.6%    -5.5%
                 P)

 Thu             AUD HIA New Home
         00:00                            Medium            4.7%
Jan 31           Sales (MoM) (DEC)

                 JPY Bank of Japan
                 Deputy Governor          Medium
                 Yamaguchi Speaks

                 GBP GfK Consumer
         00:01   Confidence Survey        Medium    -28      -29
                 (JAN)

                 AUD Private Sector
         00:30                             Low     0.2%     0.0%
                 Credit (MoM) (DEC)

                 AUD Private Sector
         00:30                            Medium   3.4%     3.5%
                 Credit (YoY) (DEC)

                 AUD Export Price Index
         00:30                             Low     -1.5%    -6.4%
                 (QoQ) (4Q)

                 AUD Import Price Index
         00:30                             Low     0.4%     -2.4%
                 (QoQ) (4Q)

                 JPY Labor Cash
         01:30                            Medium            -1.1%
                 Earnings (YoY) (DEC)

                 NZD Money Supply M3
         02:00                             Low              5.0%
                 (YoY) (DEC)

                 JPY Vehicle Production
         04:00                             Low              -8.4%
                 (YoY) (DEC)

                 JPY Housing Starts
         05:00                            Medium   13.5%    10.3%
                 (YoY) (DEC)

                 JPY Annualized
         05:00                            Medium   0.895M   0.907M
                 Housing Starts (DEC)

                 JPY Construction
         05:00                             Low              -2.1%
                 Orders (YoY) (DEC)

                 GBP Nationwide House
         07:00   Prices s.a. (MoM)         Low     0.2%     -0.1%
                 (JAN)

                 GBP Nationwide House
         07:00   Prices n.s.a. (YoY)      Medium   -0.5%    -1.0%
                 (JAN)

                 EUR German Retail
         07:00                             Low     -0.1%    1.2%
                 Sales (MoM) (DEC)

                 EUR German Retail
         07:00                            Medium   -1.3%    -0.9%
                 Sales (YoY) (DEC)

                 EUR German
         08:55   Unemployment Change       High     8K       3K
                 (JAN)
                 EUR German
         08:55   Unemployment Rate        Medium   6.9%     6.9%
                 s.a. (JAN)
                 EUR Euro-Zone
         10:00   Consumer Price Index     Medium            2.2%
                 Estimate (YoY) (JAN)
        USD Challenger Job
12:30                             Low             -22.1%
        Cuts (YoY) (JAN)

        EUR German
13:00   Consumer Price Index     Medium   -0.5%   0.9%
        (MoM) (JAN P)
        EUR German
13:00   Consumer Price Index      High    2.0%    2.1%
        (YoY) (JAN P)
        EUR German
        Consumer Price Index -
13:00                            Medium   -0.5%   0.9%
        EU Harmonised (MoM)
        (JAN P)
        EUR German
        Consumer Price Index -
13:00                             High    2.0%    2.0%
        EU Harmonised (YoY)
        (JAN P)

        CAD Gross Domestic
13:30                            Medium   0.2%    0.1%
        Product (MoM) (NOV)

        CAD Gross Domestic
13:30                             High            1.1%
        Product (YoY) (NOV)

        USD Employment Cost
13:30                             Low     0.5%    0.4%
        Index (4Q)

        USD Personal Income
13:30                            Medium   0.8%    0.6%
        (DEC)

        USD Personal
13:30                            Medium   0.3%    0.4%
        Spending (DEC)

        USD Personal
        Consumption
13:30                             Low     0.0%    -0.2%
        Expenditure Deflator
        (MoM) (DEC)

        USD Personal
        Consumption
13:30                             Low     1.4%    1.4%
        Expenditure Deflator
        (YoY) (DEC)

        USD Personal
        Consumption
13:30                             Low     0.1%    0.0%
        Expenditure Core
        (MoM) (DEC)
        USD Personal
        Consumption
13:30                             Low     1.5%    1.5%
        Expenditure Core
        (YoY) (DEC)

        USD Initial Jobless
13:30                            Medium   355K    330K
        Claims (JAN 27)

        USD Continuing Claims
13:30                             Low             3157K
        (JAN 20)

        CAD Industrial Product
13:30                             Low     0.0%    -0.3%
        Price (MoM) (DEC)

        CAD Raw Materials
13:30   Price Index (MoM)         Low     0.8%    -1.9%
        (DEC)

        USD NAPM-Milwaukee
14:00                             Low
        (JAN)

        USD Chicago
14:45   Purchasing Manager        Low      51      51.6
        (JAN)
                USD EIA Natural Gas
        15:30   Storage Change (JAN       Low               -172
                25)

                NZD Net Migration s.a.
        21:45                             Low               590
                (DEC)

                AUD AiG Performance
        22:30   of Manufacturing Index   Medium             44.3
                (JAN)

                AUD RPData-Rismark
        23:00                             Low              -0.30%
                House PX Actual (JAN)

                JPY Jobless Rate
        23:30                            Medium   4.10%    4.1%
                (DEC)

                JPY Job-To-Applicant
        23:30                             Low      0.8      0.8
                Ratio (DEC)

                JPY Household
        23:30                            Medium   -0.2%    0.2%
                Spending (YoY) (DEC)

 Fri            JPY Official Reserve
                                          Low             $1268.1B
Feb 1           Assets (JAN)

                AUD Producer Price
        00:30                            Medium   0.3%     0.6%
                Index (QoQ) (4Q)

                AUD Producer Price
        00:30                            Medium   1.2%     1.1%
                Index (YoY) (4Q)

                CNY Manufacturing
        01:00                            Medium    51       50.6
                PMI (JAN)

                CNY HSBC
        01:45   Manufacturing PMI        Medium    52       51.5
                (JAN)

                JPY Vehicle Sales
        05:00                             Low              -3.4%
                (YoY) (JAN)

                AUD RBA Commodity
        05:30                             Low               89.2
                Price Index (JAN)

                AUD RBA Commodity
        05:30                             Low              -8.0%
                Index SDR (YoY) (JAN)

                CHF SVME-Purchasing
        08:30                            Medium   50.4      49.5
                Managers Index (JAN)

                EUR Italian Purchasing
        08:45   Manager Index             Low     47.6      46.7
                Manufacturing (JAN)
                EUR French
                Purchasing Manager
        08:50                             Low     42.9      42.9
                Index Manufacturing
                (JAN F)
                EUR German
                Purchasing Manager
        08:55                            Medium   48.8      48.8
                Index Manufacturing
                (JAN F)
                EUR Euro-Zone
                Purchasing Manager
        09:00                            Medium   47.5      47.5
                Index Manufacturing
                (JAN F)
                EUR Italian
        09:00   Unemployment Rate         Low     11.3%    11.1%
                s.a. (DEC P)

                GBP Purchasing
        09:30                            Medium    51       51.4
                Manager Index
                      Manufacturing (JAN)

                      EUR Euro-Zone
       10:00          Unemployment Rate        Medium   11.9%      11.8%
                      (DEC)

                      USD Change in Non-
       13:30                                    High    155K        155K
                      farm Payrolls (JAN)

                      USD Change in Private
       13:30                                   Medium   162K        168K
                      Payrolls (JAN)

                      USD Change in
       13:30          Manufacturing Payrolls    Low      10K        25K
                      (JAN)

                      USD Unemployment
       13:30                                    High    7.8%        7.8%
                      Rate (JAN)

                      USD Average Hourly
       13:30          Earning (MoM) All        Medium   0.2%        0.3%
                      Employees (JAN)
                      USD Average Hourly
       13:30          Earning (YoY) All        Medium   2.1%        2.1%
                      Employees (JAN)

                      USD Average Weekly
       13:30          Hours All Employees       Low      34.5       34.5
                      (JAN)

                      USD Change in
       13:30          Household                Medium                28
                      Employment (JAN)

                      USD Underemployment
       13:30                                   Medium              14.4%
                      Rate (U6) (JAN)

                      USD Markit US PMI
       13:58                                    Low
                      Final (JAN)

                      USD U. of Michigan
       14:55                                   Medium    71.3       71.3
                      Confidence (JAN F)

                      USD Construction
       15:00                                   Medium   0.5%        -0.3%
                      Spending (MoM) (DEC)

                      USD ISM
       15:00                                    High     50.5       50.7
                      Manufacturing (JAN)

                      USD ISM Prices Paid
       15:00                                   Medium     56        55.5
                      (JAN)

                      USD Domestic Vehicle
       22:00                                    Low     12.00M     11.97M
                      Sales (JAN)

                      USD Total Vehicle
       22:00                                    Low     15.20M     15.30M
                      Sales (JAN)




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