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					Early warning systems
Long before Wall Street tumbled, Steve Falconer had a big idea. What if
there were a user-friendly software tool that could be applied to community
banking records that provided an early warning system for troubled assets,
something to bring general transparency to every portfolio?

“It was the fall of 2007 and my brother and I were thinking that community
banks really needed some kind of tool to evaluate whether they wanted
something in their portfolio. All this was coming together right before the
world came crashing in,” said Falconer.

Timing was not quite right for going out on an entrepreneurial limb. So
Falconer made good use of the downtime as the economy continued to reel
and slowly recover, tweaking his software, developing a prototype and
preparing a business plan…..


Under the Early Warning Program, PBGC monitors certain companies with
underfunded defined benefit pension plans to identify corporate
transactions that could jeopardize pensions and to arrange suitable
protections for those pensions and the pension insurance program.

This program allows PBGC to prevent losses before they occur, rather than
waiting to pick up the pieces when a company goes bankrupt and its
financial resources are limited.

In Technical Update 00-3 , issued in July 2000, PBGC provided detailed
guidance on the narrow circumstances in which PBGC may contact
companies, the transactions likely to cause PBGC concern, the situations
in which PBGC may seek protections for the pension insurance program
and the types of protections PBGC may seek.
Software turns laptops, PCs into earthquake early-warning system

Published 15 March 2010

Harnessing the power of accelerometers -- tiny devices that
detect movement, allowing, for example, iPhones to flip from
vertical to horizontal and Wii devices to function as tennis
rackets -- and embedding them in laptops and PCs would create
a local, regional, or even global network of "quake catchers" who
would use their computers to map tremors

Elizabeth Cochran, an earth scientist at the University of California-
Riverside, envisions a system in which volunteers would equip their
computers with sensors so that every time the ground shakes, the
machines would capture the Earth’s movement and feed the
information to a central computer system, creating a rich and
inexpensive portrait of how and where an earthquake is felt (see
“Using Laptops to Detect Earthquakes,” 29 October 2008 HSNW).
Who listened to warnings?

We knew why, didn’t know when?

Will better early warning systems help?

Failure to identify risks

Need for early counter-measures

Impact - poverty , employment

Analytical purposes and measurement issues need to go hand in hand

Monitoring frameworks should facilitate communications
 Timely

 Accurate

 Objective

 Transparent

   Convey information which is easily

       Poor: “The largest contributor to
        the monthly increase in the CPI
        was a 0.5% rise in the
        transportation index.”

       Better: “Higher auto insurance
        premiums and air fares helped
        push up consumer prices this
   Who are they?
   How do they use data?
   What indicators are

   Surveys, focus groups
   Web traffic measurement
   Scan media coverage
   Scan citations if feasible
   Help Desk
   Feedback

Different formats and tools for different audiences
   Publications
   Press releases

   In-depth reports

   Blogs

   Charts and maps

   Self service
       dataquery systems
       web search

    The Perfect Pitch
   Why should I care?

   What is so interesting
    about this that I should
    give up valuable space
    and time ?

   What makes this
    product worthy?

 Timely

 Exclusive

 Great video/pictures/sound
 We’re the only ones doing it

 Personal Profile

 Award

 Event
   Deliver the WE (Five “W’s” & one “E”)

       Who
       What
       When
       Where
       Why
       Everything else
   In the first 60 seconds of a
    phone call or face to face

   In the first sentence of a
    news release

   In the subject line of the

   In the header of your
    calendar listing
   A business-oriented, purposeful verbal message as
    fast as a ride in an elevator (30 -120 seconds) in
    understandable language – also for technology
   A concise, carefully planned, and well-practiced
    “answer” about yourself, your business, your firm,
    your project etc.
   A situation with an opportunity to sell your
    company’s identity and set yourself apart from
    other entrepreneurs
Elevator Pitch:
 • The problem
 (need) you are
 going to solve
• Your
  solution, your
• Your value
                   20 Minute Business Plan Presentation
   The “Hook" 
    Get attention and
   The Subject
    Explains and proves
    your point with passion
    (investors expect energy
    and dedication from entrepreneurs)
   Should induce desire (“greed
   Use the Concept Summary as a
   The Close
    Call to action or demand for reaction

    The communication
    style that works best is
    clear and precise          provide the best
    language, in a summary     available evidence
    format. only One person
                               to the decision-
    is speaking at a time
    without interruption.      makers on the
                               likely outcomes of
                               alternative actions
   Listening skills play a
    very important role in
    this type of meeting
   Efficient, unbiased, systematic
    delivery of evidence to decision-

   Clear standard for best practice in
    knowledge transfer

   Formalised method of identifying
    areas where evidence is lacking

   Basis by which to move research
    funding toward more needs-led
Decision quality reflects the
ratio between the information
that the decision maker has
at hand and the sum total of
relevant information that is
potentially available.
   Current decision-making
    processes may lack objective ,
    rationale or effectiveness.

   In the absence of evidence,
    they will rely on subjective
    methods combined with
    personal experience.
The decision makers

. Decide to change

    • Now that “you know better”, the
      decision is yours: Stay stuck or

    • There can be no more false hopes for
      any silver bullet technology solutions.

. Spread the word

     • To embrace changes, there must be
        “something in it” for everybody.
     • Otherwise, changes trigger anxiety
        and anxiety results in resistance or
. Plan changes
      • Big changes do not get implemented
         in one “Big Bang”.
      • Involve people in change planning.
      • Cross-organizational changes are
         phased in.
. Measure effectiveness
     • Solicit feedback from “the trenches”.
     • Are the changes affecting anyone

. Refine changes
      • Nothing is perfect the first time
      • What might work in one
        organization may not work in

   Rapid software development to validate
l Composed of panels
l Arrows represent transitions between panels

l Example:
 Transition arrows also represent different event
 Supported:
     Right click
     Double click                    Edit…
     Timer

     Mouse over/off
                              3 sec
     Animation
 For describing transitions that depend on
  state of widgets
 One panel per condition

 Used for custom widgets and reusable
  sequences of panels
 Internally structured as storyboards

 Can have named events

     Storyboard1 - DENIM                       


              cancel       cancel   cancel
l Pick up component’s rubber stamp
l Stamp component into panel or background

Built-in components (buttons, etc.) can also be sketched
   The principal use is to help customers and developers
    understand the requirements for the system

       Requirements elicitation. Users can experiment with a
        prototype to see how the system supports their work
       Requirements validation. The prototype can reveal errors
        and omissions in the requirements

   Prototyping can be considered as a risk reduction activity which
    reduces requirements risks
   Misunderstandings between software users and developers are
   Missing services may be detected and confusing services may
    be identified
   A working system is available early in the process
   The prototype may serve as a basis for deriving a system
   The system can support user training and system testing
  E s t a b l is h         D e fine
                                                 D e v e lo p       E v a lu a t e
 p ro to ty p e          p ro to ty p e
                                                p ro to ty p e      p ro to ty p e
 o b j e c t iv e s   f u n c ti o n a li ty

P ro to ty p i n g        O u t li n e         E x e c u t a b le   E v a lu a ti o n
     p la n             d e f i n i ti o n      p ro to ty p e         re po rt
   Data representations
   Information graphics
   Data representation techniques and tools
   Visual representation – trends and best practices
   Interactivity in data representation
   Tools and applications
   The user perspective on information presentation


     Oral presentation or document that—
      Gives information

      Requests funding or approval

      Analyzes company or market data

      Makes recommendations for change

Business reports are systematic attempts to
answer questions and solve problems.
   Everyone writes reports.
   Most reports flow upward.
   Most reports are informal.
   Reports differ from memos and letters.
   Some reports are collaborative efforts.
   Ethical report writers interpret facts fairly.
   The writer is the reader’s servant.
1 Analyze the problem and purpose.
2 Anticipate the audience and issues.
3 Prepare a work plan.
4 Research the data.
5 Organize, analyze, interpret, illustrate the data.
6 Compose the first draft.
7 Revise, proofread, and evaluate.
    •Write short but
 clear headings.
   •Experiment with
 wording that tells who,
 what, when, where, and
    –Includeat least
 one heading per report
   Transitions are words or
    phrases that link ideas

   You should use
    transitions to help
    readers move from one
    section, one paragraph or
    one sentence to an other.
Giving additional information
 in addition
 or besides

Show casual relationship between two sentences.
Informal reports

        Usually brief
        Use direct strategy
        Include personal pronouns

Formal reports

        Usually longer
        Often use indirect strategy, impersonal
        Designed in prescribed format
Prefatory Part
   Cover

   Title fly and title page
   Executive summary

   Table of contents

   List of illustrations
   Statement of problem
   Statement of purpose
   Sources and methods of
    data collection
   Tentative outline
   Work schedule
   Identify the report and its

   Present a brief overview of the
    report’s organization, especially
    for longer reports.

   When readers are unfamiliar
    with the topic, briefly fill in the
    background details.
   Group facts or findings into
    three to five roughly equal
    segments that do not

   Organize by time,
    component, importance,
    criteria, convention, or
    some other method.

   Supply functional or talking
    heads (at least one per
    page) to describe each
   Use an informal,
    conversational writing style
    unless a formal tone is

   Use bullets, numbered and
    lettered lists, headings,
    underlined items, and white
    space to enhance readability.
   When necessary,
    briefly review the
    main points and
    discuss what action
    will follow.

   If relevant, express
    appreciation or
    describe your
    willingness to
    provide further
   Be objective.
    Avoid exaggerating or
    manipulating the data to prove a

   Use consistent criteria.
    In evaluating options, use the
    same criteria for each alternative.

   Enumerate each
    Number and list each item.
    Present items in parallel form.
   Develop reasonable
    conclusions that answer
    the research question.
    Justify the conclusions
    with highlights from the

   Make recommendations,
    if asked. Use action verbs.
    Explain needed action.
   Suggest actions.
    Indicate specific procedures that
    can help solve the report
   Focus on
    recommendations that
    are practical and
    Suggest feasible actions that
    would be acceptable to this
   Present recommendations
    Enumerate each in a statement
    beginning with a verb.

   If requested, indicate how the
    recommendations may be
    Some writers present detailed
    plans for executing the
   Database theory and practice
   Data mining and relational report writing
   Enterprise data and information flow
   Information management and regulatory compliance
   Analytical processing and decision making
   Data presentation and visualization
   BI technologies and systems
   Value chain and customer service management
   Business process analysis and design
   Transaction processing systems
   Management information systems
 Knowledge of database systems and data
  warehousing technologies
 Ability to manage database system integration,
  implementation and testing
 Ability to manage relational databases and
  create complex reports
 Knowledge and ability to implement data and
  information policies, security requirements,
  and state and federal regulations
   Understanding of the flow of information throughout the
   Ability to effectively communicate with and get support
    from technology and business specialists
   Ability to understand the use of data and information in
    each organizational units
   Ability to present data in a user-centric framework
   Ability to understand the decision making process and
    to focus on business objectives
   Ability to train business users in information
    management and interpretation
 BI solution architects and integration
 Business and BI analysts

 BI application developers and testers

 Data warehouse specialists

 Database analysts, developers and testers

 Database support specialists
BI Development Steps
1. Business Case Assessment .
2.A Enterprise Technical Infrastructure
2.B Enterprise Non-Technical Infrastructure
3. Project Planning
4. Project Requirements Definition .
5. Data Analysis
6. Application Prototyping
7. Meta Data Repository Analysis
8. Database Design
9. ETL Design
10. Meta Data Repository Design
11. ETL Development
12. Application Development
13. Data Mining
14. Meta Data Repository Development .
15. Implementation .
16. Release Evaluation

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