Early warning systems
Long before Wall Street tumbled, Steve Falconer had a big idea. What if
there were a user-friendly software tool that could be applied to community
banking records that provided an early warning system for troubled assets,
something to bring general transparency to every portfolio?
“It was the fall of 2007 and my brother and I were thinking that community
banks really needed some kind of tool to evaluate whether they wanted
something in their portfolio. All this was coming together right before the
world came crashing in,” said Falconer.
Timing was not quite right for going out on an entrepreneurial limb. So
Falconer made good use of the downtime as the economy continued to reel
and slowly recover, tweaking his software, developing a prototype and
preparing a business plan…..
Under the Early Warning Program, PBGC monitors certain companies with
underfunded defined benefit pension plans to identify corporate
transactions that could jeopardize pensions and to arrange suitable
protections for those pensions and the pension insurance program.
This program allows PBGC to prevent losses before they occur, rather than
waiting to pick up the pieces when a company goes bankrupt and its
financial resources are limited.
In Technical Update 00-3 , issued in July 2000, PBGC provided detailed
guidance on the narrow circumstances in which PBGC may contact
companies, the transactions likely to cause PBGC concern, the situations
in which PBGC may seek protections for the pension insurance program
and the types of protections PBGC may seek.
Software turns laptops, PCs into earthquake early-warning system
Published 15 March 2010
Harnessing the power of accelerometers -- tiny devices that
detect movement, allowing, for example, iPhones to flip from
vertical to horizontal and Wii devices to function as tennis
rackets -- and embedding them in laptops and PCs would create
a local, regional, or even global network of "quake catchers" who
would use their computers to map tremors
Elizabeth Cochran, an earth scientist at the University of California-
Riverside, envisions a system in which volunteers would equip their
computers with sensors so that every time the ground shakes, the
machines would capture the Earth’s movement and feed the
information to a central computer system, creating a rich and
inexpensive portrait of how and where an earthquake is felt (see
“Using Laptops to Detect Earthquakes,” 29 October 2008 HSNW).
Who listened to warnings?
We knew why, didn’t know when?
Will better early warning systems help?
Failure to identify risks
Need for early counter-measures
Impact - poverty , employment
Analytical purposes and measurement issues need to go hand in hand
Monitoring frameworks should facilitate communications
Convey information which is easily
Poor: “The largest contributor to
the monthly increase in the CPI
was a 0.5% rise in the
Better: “Higher auto insurance
premiums and air fares helped
push up consumer prices this
Who are they?
How do they use data?
What indicators are
Surveys, focus groups
Web traffic measurement
Scan media coverage
Scan citations if feasible
Different formats and tools for different audiences
Charts and maps
The Perfect Pitch
Why should I care?
What is so interesting
about this that I should
give up valuable space
and time ?
What makes this
We’re the only ones doing it
Deliver the WE (Five “W’s” & one “E”)
In the first 60 seconds of a
phone call or face to face
In the first sentence of a
In the subject line of the
In the header of your
A business-oriented, purposeful verbal message as
fast as a ride in an elevator (30 -120 seconds) in
understandable language – also for technology
A concise, carefully planned, and well-practiced
“answer” about yourself, your business, your firm,
your project etc.
A situation with an opportunity to sell your
company’s identity and set yourself apart from
• The problem
(need) you are
going to solve
• Your value
20 Minute Business Plan Presentation
Get attention and
Explains and proves
your point with passion
(investors expect energy
and dedication from entrepreneurs)
Should induce desire (“greed
Use the Concept Summary as a
Call to action or demand for reaction
style that works best is
clear and precise provide the best
language, in a summary available evidence
format. only One person
to the decision-
is speaking at a time
without interruption. makers on the
likely outcomes of
Listening skills play a
very important role in
this type of meeting
Efficient, unbiased, systematic
delivery of evidence to decision-
Clear standard for best practice in
Formalised method of identifying
areas where evidence is lacking
Basis by which to move research
funding toward more needs-led
Decision quality reflects the
ratio between the information
that the decision maker has
at hand and the sum total of
relevant information that is
processes may lack objective ,
rationale or effectiveness.
In the absence of evidence,
they will rely on subjective
methods combined with
The decision makers
. Decide to change
• Now that “you know better”, the
decision is yours: Stay stuck or
• There can be no more false hopes for
any silver bullet technology solutions.
. Spread the word
• To embrace changes, there must be
“something in it” for everybody.
• Otherwise, changes trigger anxiety
and anxiety results in resistance or
. Plan changes
• Big changes do not get implemented
in one “Big Bang”.
• Involve people in change planning.
• Cross-organizational changes are
. Measure effectiveness
• Solicit feedback from “the trenches”.
• Are the changes affecting anyone
. Refine changes
• Nothing is perfect the first time
• What might work in one
organization may not work in
Rapid software development to validate
l Composed of panels
l Arrows represent transitions between panels
Transition arrows also represent different event
Double click Edit…
For describing transitions that depend on
state of widgets
One panel per condition
Used for custom widgets and reusable
sequences of panels
Internally structured as storyboards
Can have named events
Storyboard1 - DENIM
cancel cancel cancel
l Pick up component’s rubber stamp
l Stamp component into panel or background
Built-in components (buttons, etc.) can also be sketched
The principal use is to help customers and developers
understand the requirements for the system
Requirements elicitation. Users can experiment with a
prototype to see how the system supports their work
Requirements validation. The prototype can reveal errors
and omissions in the requirements
Prototyping can be considered as a risk reduction activity which
reduces requirements risks
Misunderstandings between software users and developers are
Missing services may be detected and confusing services may
A working system is available early in the process
The prototype may serve as a basis for deriving a system
The system can support user training and system testing
E s t a b l is h D e fine
D e v e lo p E v a lu a t e
p ro to ty p e p ro to ty p e
p ro to ty p e p ro to ty p e
o b j e c t iv e s f u n c ti o n a li ty
P ro to ty p i n g O u t li n e E x e c u t a b le E v a lu a ti o n
p la n d e f i n i ti o n p ro to ty p e re po rt
Data representation techniques and tools
Visual representation – trends and best practices
Interactivity in data representation
Tools and applications
The user perspective on information presentation
Oral presentation or document that—
Requests funding or approval
Analyzes company or market data
Makes recommendations for change
Business reports are systematic attempts to
answer questions and solve problems.
Everyone writes reports.
Most reports flow upward.
Most reports are informal.
Reports differ from memos and letters.
Some reports are collaborative efforts.
Ethical report writers interpret facts fairly.
The writer is the reader’s servant.
1 Analyze the problem and purpose.
2 Anticipate the audience and issues.
3 Prepare a work plan.
4 Research the data.
5 Organize, analyze, interpret, illustrate the data.
6 Compose the first draft.
7 Revise, proofread, and evaluate.
•Write short but
wording that tells who,
what, when, where, and
one heading per report
Transitions are words or
phrases that link ideas
You should use
transitions to help
readers move from one
section, one paragraph or
one sentence to an other.
Giving additional information
Show casual relationship between two sentences.
Use direct strategy
Include personal pronouns
Often use indirect strategy, impersonal
Designed in prescribed format
Title fly and title page
Table of contents
List of illustrations
Statement of problem
Statement of purpose
Sources and methods of
Identify the report and its
Present a brief overview of the
report’s organization, especially
for longer reports.
When readers are unfamiliar
with the topic, briefly fill in the
Group facts or findings into
three to five roughly equal
segments that do not
Organize by time,
criteria, convention, or
some other method.
Supply functional or talking
heads (at least one per
page) to describe each
Use an informal,
conversational writing style
unless a formal tone is
Use bullets, numbered and
lettered lists, headings,
underlined items, and white
space to enhance readability.
briefly review the
main points and
discuss what action
If relevant, express
Avoid exaggerating or
manipulating the data to prove a
Use consistent criteria.
In evaluating options, use the
same criteria for each alternative.
Number and list each item.
Present items in parallel form.
conclusions that answer
the research question.
Justify the conclusions
with highlights from the
if asked. Use action verbs.
Explain needed action.
Indicate specific procedures that
can help solve the report
are practical and
Suggest feasible actions that
would be acceptable to this
Enumerate each in a statement
beginning with a verb.
If requested, indicate how the
recommendations may be
Some writers present detailed
plans for executing the
Database theory and practice
Data mining and relational report writing
Enterprise data and information flow
Information management and regulatory compliance
Analytical processing and decision making
Data presentation and visualization
BI technologies and systems
Value chain and customer service management
Business process analysis and design
Transaction processing systems
Management information systems
Knowledge of database systems and data
Ability to manage database system integration,
implementation and testing
Ability to manage relational databases and
create complex reports
Knowledge and ability to implement data and
information policies, security requirements,
and state and federal regulations
Understanding of the flow of information throughout the
Ability to effectively communicate with and get support
from technology and business specialists
Ability to understand the use of data and information in
each organizational units
Ability to present data in a user-centric framework
Ability to understand the decision making process and
to focus on business objectives
Ability to train business users in information
management and interpretation
BI solution architects and integration
Business and BI analysts
BI application developers and testers
Data warehouse specialists
Database analysts, developers and testers
Database support specialists
BI Development Steps
1. Business Case Assessment .
2.A Enterprise Technical Infrastructure
2.B Enterprise Non-Technical Infrastructure
3. Project Planning
4. Project Requirements Definition .
5. Data Analysis
6. Application Prototyping
7. Meta Data Repository Analysis
8. Database Design
9. ETL Design
10. Meta Data Repository Design
11. ETL Development
12. Application Development
13. Data Mining
14. Meta Data Repository Development .
15. Implementation .
16. Release Evaluation