Docstoc

startup business plan

Document Sample
startup business plan Powered By Docstoc
					A comparison of technical and economic prospects of
    battery electric, hybrid and fuel cell vehicles

                                                    Amela Ajanovic, Reinhard Haas
                                                        Energy Economics Group
                                                     Vienna University of Technology
                                                             Vienna, Austria
                                                        ajanovic@eeg.tuwien.ac.at

Abstract—The core objective of this paper is to analyze the              However, these changes are not subject of this paper and do
market prospects of battery electric, hybrid and fuel cell vehicles      also not impact our results. The only dimension where we have
from a technical energetic and an economic point-of-view in a            to rely on an external scenario are learning rates for BEV and
dynamic framework up to 2050 in comparison to conventional               FCV used for the final economic analysis.
passenger cars. The major results and conclusions of this analysis
are: From a technical point-of-view BEV and FCV are currently
clearly preferable to conventional cars regarding ecological                                II.   METHOD OF APPROACH
performance as well as energetic conversion efficiency. Yet, this            Our method of approach is based on a scenario with
applies only if the electricity respectively the hydrogen used in        favourable conditions for the development of the energetic
the cars is produced from RES. With respect to the economic              performance of conversion efficiencies in the whole energy
competitiveness of alternative powertrains compared to                   service mobility providing chain. We conduct a dynamic
conventional vehicles in the most favourable case BEV will enter         technical and economic analysis and investigate when in future
the market by about 2025. FCV will become competitive even               HEV, BEV and FCV could become – under most favourable
later, by about 2040.                                                    conditions – economically competitive compared to
                                                                         conventional gasoline and diesel cars. In addition we analyze
    Keywords- battery electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, technical
performance, economics, technological learning
                                                                         the performance of flex-fuel vehicles using bioethanol.
                                                                             To evaluate the economics we compare the transport
                        I.    INTRODUCTION                               service costs per 100km driven. In this context different driving
                                                                         distances play a role. Our formal economic framework starts
    Alternative powertrains like battery electric vehicles
                                                                         with calculating the total driving costs Cdrive per year:
(BEV), hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) and hydrogen-based
fuel cell vehicles (FCV) are considered as environmentally                   Cdrive = IC α + Pf FI skm + CO&M [€/car/year]            (1)
benign alternatives to fossil fuel based conventional passenger
cars. However, the high costs are still barriers for a broad                The costs per km driven Ckm are calculated as:
market breakthrough of these vehicles.
                                                                                      IC ⋅ α            C       [€/100 km driven]         (2)
   The core objective of this paper is to investigate the future             C km =          + Pf ⋅ FI + O&M
                                                                                       skm               skm
market prospects of alternative powertrains like BEV, HEV
and FCV in a dynamic framework till 2050 in comparison to                   where:
conventional passenger cars for average conditions of EU-15
countries. This work builds on [1] and [2]. Special attention is         IC……investment costs [€/car]
put on the issue of specific km driven per car per year as a             α……..capital recovery factor
major parameters for economic assessment.                                skm…..specific km driven per car per year [km/(car.yr)]
                                                                         Pf….….fuel price incl. taxes [€/litre]
    We also consider different fuel mixes for electricity and            CO&M…operating and maintenance costs
hydrogen (H2) from fossil versus renewable energy sources                FI……..fuel intensity [litre/100 km]
(RES). This is relevant to identify the environmental
performance which is further-on translated into corresponding              The fuel price depends on the cost of fuel Cf, and possible
costs of CO2 of fuels by introducing a CO2 tax. Hence, in the            VAT, excise and CO2 taxes:
economic analysis we also consider the potential effects of CO2              Pf = C f + τ CO2 + τ VAT + τ exc                       (3)
taxes.
    The following remark is important with respect to the time               To capture the dynamic effects of changes in investment
frame analysed: It is evident that up to 2050 fundamental                costs of powertrains over time we apply the approach of
changes in the structure of passenger transport may take place           technological learning (TL). We use equ. (4) to express an
with severe impact on shares of different technologies, modal            experience curve by using an exponential regression depending
splits as well as organisation of living, labour and leisure time.




                                                  978-1-4577-0547-2/12/$31.00 ©2012 IEEE
on investment cost of new technology components ICNew_t(x),                                                 took already place before 2011 as a first result of the European
the learning index b and the investment cost of the first unit a:                                           Commission to improve the efficiency of cars. For further
                                                                                                            details on life-cycle energy balances see [1].
                                          −b
 IC New _ t ( x) = a ⋅ xt                       [€/kW]                                                (4)                70


                                                                                                                         60


                                                                                                                         50
             III.           TECHNICAL AND ECOLOGICAL PROSPECTS




                                                                                                             kWh/100km
                                                                                                                         40
    For the economic assessment the energetic conversion and
the CO2 emissions – on which the CO2 tax is based – are the                                                              30

major technical impact parameters. In the following we                                                                   20
compare the current state and show the possible developments
the well-to-wheel (WTW) CO2-equ balances and the fuel                                                                    10

intensity in kWh/100km driven up to 2050.                                                                                0
                                                                                                                         2000      2005   2010      2015     2020     2025   2030    2035   2040   2045     2050
    Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 compare the well-to-tank (WTT) -, tank-
to-wheel (TTW) - and WTW net CO2 emissions of                                                                                 Gasoline     Diesel          Gasoline-Hybrid     Flex-Fuel     BEV          FCV


conventional and flex-fuel vehicles as well as BEV, HEV and
FCV from various energy sources in 2010 and 2050 for the                                                      Figure 3. Historical developments of passenger cars’ fuel intensities and
average of EU-countries. A major perception of this figure is                                                assumptions for development in the BAU scenarios up to 2050 (for average
                                                                                                                               car size of 80 kW) (References: [3-7]).
that despite BEV and FCV do not emit CO2 in the TTW-phase
they are ecologically unfavourable to conventional cars if the
electricity used is generated in fossil power plants.                                                                                     IV.       TECHNOLOGICAL LEARNING
                            WTT-, TTW- and WTW-CO2-EMISSIONS 2010                                                Future production costs of alternative powertrains will be
FCV-H2-RES-Wind/Hydro                                                                                       reduced through technological learning. Technological learning
    FCV-H2-NG-EU-Mix                                                                                        is illustrated for many technologies by so-called experience or
 BEV RES-E Wind/Hydro                                                                                       learning curves. In our model we split up specific investment
         BEV New NG                                                                                         costs ICt(x) into a part that reflect the costs of conventional
    BEV UCTE Coal Mix                                                                                       mature technology components ICCon_t(x) and a part for the
      Flex-Fuel-vehicles                                                                                    new technology components ICNew_t(x).
       Gasoline-Hybrid

             Diesel ICE                                                                                                  ICt ( x) = ICCon _ t ( x) + ICNew _ t ( x)                                         (5)
          Gasoline ICE

                           -20   0   20   40   60    80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300
                                                                                                                         where:
                                                               gCO2/MJ

            WTT-Fuel Net gCO2/MJ                    TTW-Fuel gCO2/MJ          WTW-Fuel gCO2/MJ              ICCon_t(x)…specific investment cost of conventional mature
                                                                                                            technology components (€/kW)
 Figure 1. WTT-, TTW- and WTW net CO2 emissions of various vehicles                                         x ………..cumulative capacity up to year t (kW)
      and energy sources in 2010 for the average of EU-15 countries.
                                                                                                               For ICCon_t(x) no more learning is expected. For ICNew_t(x)
                            WTT-, TTW- and WTW-CO2-EMISSIONS 2050                                           we consider a national and an international learning effect:
FCV-H2-RES-Wind/Hydro

     FCV-H2-NG-EU-Mix                                                                                                    IC New _ t ( x) = IC New _ t ( x nat _ t ) + IC New _ t ( xint_ t )                    (6)
 BEV RES-E Wind/Hydro

          BEV New NG                                                                                                     where:
    BEV UCTE Coal Mix
                                                                                                            ICNew_t(xnat_t)…specific national part of ICNew_t(x) of new
      Flex-Fuel-vehicles

        Gasoline-Hybrid
                                                                                                            technology components (€/kW)
             Diesel ICE                                                                                     ICNew_t(xint_t)…specific international part of ICNew_t(x) of new
           Gasoline ICE
                                                                                                            technology components (€/kW)
                           -20   0   20   40   60    80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300
                                                                gCO2/MJ                                        For both components of ICNew_t (x) we use (4) to express an
                 WTT-Fuel Net g/MJ                  TTW-Fuel gCO2/MJ        WTW-Fuel gCO2/MJ
                                                                                                            experience curve.
 Figure 2. WTT-, TTW- and WTW net CO2 emissions of various vehicles                                             In this paper we analyze possibilities of TL in future based
      and energy sources in 2010 for the average of EU-15 countries.                                        on an ambitious scenario for world-wide market diffusion of
                                                                                                            the analyzed car types as depicted in Fig. 4. Next we compare
   Fig. 3 describes the expected historical developments of                                                 conventional and BEV in detail. Fig. 5 and Fig. 6 show the
passenger cars’ fuel intensities and assumptions for                                                        developments of investment costs of the BEV and conventional
development in the scenarios up to 2050 (for average car size                                               powertrains over time considering TL and service increases
of 80 kW). Note, that the steepest decrease in fuel intensities
2010 -2050. The service increases –e.g. more amenities in the                                                                                                  In Fig. 5 and Fig. 6 the TL effect is applied to the base car,
car – cause additional costs.                                                                                                                              the battery and the engine specific components. In addition cost
                                                             STOCK OF VEHICLES WORLD-WIDE
                                                                                                                                                           occurs for the over-all efficiency increases. The later are
                                                                                                                                                           revealed in better fuel intensities over time. Fig. 7 summarizes
                        40000                                                                                                       200000

                                                                                                                                    180000
                                                                                                                                                           the IC developments of the considered powertrains from 2010
                        35000
                                                                                                                                    160000
                                                                                                                                                           to 2050. Of course, the most remarkable cost decreases are
                        30000
                                                                                                                                    140000                 expected for BEV and FCV.
                        25000
            1000 cars




                                                                                                                                    120000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Investment costs




                                                                                                                                             Cars
                        20000                                                                                                       100000

                                                                                                                                    80000                                140000
                        15000
                                                                                                                                    60000
                        10000                                                                                                                                            120000
                                                                                                                                    40000
                         5000
                                                                                                                                    20000                                100000
                              0                                                                                                 0




                                                                                                                                                            EUR/car
                              2000        2005      2010     2015     2020      2025     2030     2035      2040     2045    2050                                        80000


                                         Battery Electric vehicles           Fuel cell vehicles          Hybrid electric vehicles                                        60000

                                                                                                                                                                         40000

Figure 4. Over-all scenarios for world-wide wide market diffusion of HEV,                                                                                                20000
                       BEV and FCV 2010 -2050.
                                                                                                                                                                              0
                                                                                                                                                                              2000         2005       2010      2015      2020       2025      2030      2035       2040      2045     2050
    And hence, also these cars should have become cheaper                                                                                                                         Gasoline                                Diesel                                Gasoline-Hybrid
over the past decades. However, aside from increases in                                                                                                                           Flex-Fuel-vehicles                      Electric vehicles                     Fuel cell vehicles

average power of these cars – which is not the focus of this
paper – improvements in the service quality e.g. the electronics                                                                                            Figure 7. Development of investment costs of the considered powertrains
– of the car have taken place and these have virtually eaten up                                                                                                     over time considering TL and service increases 2010 -2050
the cost savings which have incurred for the “naked” car due to
learning. This effect is depicted in detail for conventional cars
in Fig. 5 and is also applied in Fig. 6 for BEV.                                                                                                                                                      V.         ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT
                        25000
                                                                                                                                                              For the economic analyses we consider investment costs,
                                                                                                                                                           operating and maintenance costs, fuel costs and the relevance
                        20000
                                                                                                                                                           of CO2 taxes in the cost structure. Moroever, we use different
                                                                                                                                                           skm/year for different car categories. Our analysis starts with
                                                                                                                                                           the fuel costs. Fig. 8 compares the scenarios for the
            EUR/car




                        15000

                                                                                                                                                           development of the fuel costs (incl. taxes) of the service
                        10000                                                                                                                              mobility per 100km driven from 2010 to 2050.
                                                                                                                                                                         25
                         5000



                                                                                                                                                                         20
                              0
                                  2010         2015          2020        2025          2030        2035            2040       2045           2050
                                   Base car 80 kW       Battery      Engine, gear      Efficiency increase      Service increase      Retail
                                                                                                                                                             EUR/100km




                                                                                                                                                                         15



Figure 5. Development of car investment costs of conventional cars (80 kW)                                                                                               10

            considering TL and service increases 2010 -2050.
                                                                                                                                                                          5


              70000
                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                                                                                                                                                          2000      2005       2010      2015      2020       2025      2030      2035      2040       2045     2050
              60000
                                                                                                                                                                         Gasoline            Diesel          Hybr. Gasoline          Flex-Fuel        Electricity          Hydrogen
              50000


              40000
                                                                                                                                                            Figure 8. Scenario of fuel costs incl. taxes per 100 km from 2010 -2050.
  EUR/car




              30000
                                                                                                                                                               In our scenario CO2 taxes replace excise taxes in 2013 and
              20000
                                                                                                                                                           increase up to 2050 by 1.5 cent/kg CO2 and year. Fuel costs for
              10000                                                                                                                                        driving remain cheapest for electricity but costs of hydrogen
                                                                                                                                                           cars come closer and are remarkably cheaper than fossil fuels
                          0
                              2010           2015          2020          2025           2030        2035             2040           2045            2050   and biofuels. Due to the introduced CO2 taxes price increases
                                                                                                                                                           are highest for the fossil fuel driven vehicles.
                        Base car 80 kW             Battery        Engine, gear         Efficiency increase           Service increase          Retail

                                                                                                                                                               Fig. 9 and 10 describe the cost structure of total costs of
                                                                                                                                                           service mobility per 100km driven of different types of cars in
Figure 6. Development of car investment costs of BEV (80 kW) considering                                                                                   2010 and in 2050. We can see that the advantages of alternative
                 TL and service increases 2010 -2050.                                                                                                      powertrains regarding lower fuel costs are more than
                                                                                                                                                           compensated by higher capital costs in 2010, see Fig. 9
                         TOTAL SPECIFIC COSTS PER 100 KM 2010
                                                                                                                                                                 TOTAL COSTS PER 100 KM
 FCV-H2-RES-Short distance                                                                                                         120


 FCV-H2-RES-Long distance                                                                                                          100

                                                                                                                                   80




                                                                                                                       EUR/100km
  BEV RES-E Short distance

  BEV RES-E Long distance                                                                                                          60

          Flex-Fuel-vehicles                                                                                                       40

            Gasoline-Hybrid                                                                                                        20

                 Diesel ICE                                                                                                         0
                                                                                                                                    2000      2005     2010      2015    2020     2025     2030     2035      2040     2045      2050
              Gasoline ICE

                                                                                                                                         Gasoline                        Diesel                            Hybr. Gasoline
                               0         50         100         150         200         250          300
                                                          EUR/100km                                                                      Flex-Fuel                       BEV - Short Distance              BEV - Long Distance
                                                                                                                                         FCV - H2 - Short distance       FCV - H2 - Long distance
                      Capital costs EUR/100 km     O&M costs EUR/100 km     Fuel costs EUR/100 km




Figure 9. Total costs of service mobility per 100km driven in passenger cars                                     Figure 11. Development of total costs of service mobility per 100km driven of
                                  in 2010.                                                                                     different types of passenger cars in 2000- 2050.


                                   TOTAL SPECIFIC COSTS PER 100 KM 2050
                                                                                                                                                                VI.       CONCLUSIONS
    FCV-H2-RES-Short distance
                                                                                                                     The major conclusions of this analysis are: From a
     FCV-H2-RES-Long distance
                                                                                                                 technical point-of-view BEV and FCV are currently clearly
      BEV RES-E Short distance                                                                                   preferable to conventional cars regarding ecological
      BEV RES-E Long distance                                                                                    performance as well as energetic conversion efficiency. Yet,
              Flex-Fuel-vehicles                                                                                 this applies only if electricity respectively hydrogen used is
                Gasoline-Hybrid
                                                                                                                 produced from RES.
                      Diesel ICE                                                                                     With respect to the economic competitiveness of alternative
                   Gasoline ICE                                                                                  powertrains compared to conventional vehicles in the most
                                     0        50          100         150         200         250          300
                                                                                                                 favourable – long distance driven – case BEV will enter the
                                                                EUR/100km                                        market by about 2025. FCV will become competitive even
                  Capital costs EUR/100 km         O&M costs EUR/100 km           Fuel costs EUR/100 km
                                                                                                                 later, by about 2040. Also in this case optimistic assumptions
                                                                                                                 are used in favour of this technology. HEV are already today a
Figure 10. Total costs of service mobility per 100km driven in passenger cars                                    feasible technical option which combines the advantages of
                                   in 2050.                                                                      both electric drives and ICE-vehicles at rather moderate
                                                                                                                 additional costs. Finally it is to note that by 2050 the total
    The specific capital costs are the highest component of the                                                  overall driving costs of most analysed fuels and powertrains
driving costs for all alternative powertrains (and conventional                                                  will almost even out.
cars as well). HEV, BEV and FCV take into account the actual
costs for batteries as well as for fuel cells. However, these costs                                                  The major uncertainty remaining regarding BEV and FCV
can be reduced until 2020 based on technical improvement                                                         is how fast technological learning will take place especially for
potentials, Fig. 7. By 2050 costs of most cars will even out, see                                                the battery and the fuel cells.
Fig 10. Yet, diesel cars still remain cheapest, mainly because of
more km are driven in these cars and capital costs are                                                                                                                  REFERENCES
distributed to larger distances.                                                                                 [1]       Ajanovic A., G. Jungmeier, M. Beermann, R. Haas: Driving on
                                                                                                                           Renewables – on the prospects for life-cycle based energetic conversion
    Fig. 11 compares the development of the total costs of                                                                 of alternative fuels up to 2050 in EU-Countries, Tunis 2011.
service mobility per 100km driven of different types of
                                                                                                                 [2]       Ajanovic A. et al, 2011: ALTER-MOTIVE. Final Report. www.alter-
passenger cars from 2010 to 2050. We can see that total costs                                                              motive.org
for conventional cars increase slightly – mainly because of the                                                  [3]       Toro F., Jain S., Reitze F., Ajanovic A., Haas R., Furlan S., Wilde H.,
CO2 taxes introduced and increases in fuel costs – while                                                                   2010: State of the art for alternative fuels and alternative automotive
driving costs of BEV and FCV decrease significantly. This is                                                               technologies, ALTER-MOTIVE, D8, www.alter-motive.org
mainly due to TL that reduces costs of batteries and fuel cells.                                                 [4]       IEA. Energy Technology Perspectives 2008: Scenarios and Strategies to
                                                                                                                           2050. IEA/OECD, 2008
    A paradox aspect that can be seen from Fig. 11 is that                                                       [5]       Database CO2 emissions monitoring: Decision No 1753/2000/EC of the
economics of alternative powertrains increases with number of                                                              European Parliament and of the Council of 22 June 2000. Database to
km driven per car and year. This implies that on the one hand it                                                           monitor the average specific emissions of CO2 from new passenger cars,
is more favourable to substitute diesel cars by EV and on the                                                              2009
other hand it emphasizes the problem of range of battery.                                                        [6]       Progress report on implementation of the Community’s integrated
                                                                                                                           approach to reduce CO2 emissions from light-duty vehicles, 2010,
                                                                                                                           (COM 2010, 656)
                                                                                                                 [7]       CONCAWE: TANK-to-WHEELS Report Version 3, October 2008

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Stats:
views:207
posted:1/27/2013
language:
pages:5
Description: startup business plan