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ExxonMobil - The Outlook for Energy A View to 2040

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					                                                                                The Outlook for Energy:
                                                                                A View to 2040

                                                                                William Colton
                                                                                December 11, 2012




This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes
in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future
Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and
analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission
of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
    Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand
        GDP                                                         Energy Demand
        Trillion 2005$                                              Quadrillion BTUs

         125                                                        1250

                     2010-2040 AAGR %                                                  2010-2040 AAGR %
                              World                 Other                                   World
         100                                         Non     3.9%   1000                                  Energy
                              2.8%                                                          1.0%
                                                    OECD                                                  Saved
                                                                                                           ~500

          75                                        China 5.6%        750



          50                                                          500
                                                    Other
                                                             1.8%
                                                    OECD

          25                                                          250

                                             United States   2.3%

            0                                                           0
             2000                     2020              2040             2000                2020          2040


ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
    Electricity Generation Leads Growth
                   Energy Demand by Sector
                   Quadrillion BTUs
                    300                     2040

                                     2025
                    250


                    200        2010


                    150


                    100


                      50


                        0
                                 Electricity       Industrial   Transportation   Res/Comm
                                 Generation


ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Transportation
    Transportation Demand
 Sector Demand                                      Demand by Region
 MBDOE                                              MBDOE

 75                                                  30
                                           Rail
                                                                      ‘40
                                                     25
 60                                      Marine

                                       Aviation                 ‘25
                                                     20
 45

                                                     15
                                     Heavy Duty           ‘10
 30
                                                     10

 15
                                     Light Duty       5


   0                                                  0
    2000                 2020                2040               AP          NA   Europe   LA   ME   ROW


ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
    Light Duty Vehicle Sales & Efficiency
   Annual New Car Sales by Type             Incremental Vehicle Efficiency Gains
   Million Cars                             Miles per Gallon
                                                                                    47 MPG
   150          Elec/PHV                    20
                Full Hybrid

   125          Natural Gas
                Conv. Diesel                                                         Hybrid
                                            15
                Conv. Gasoline
   100


                                                                                Vehicle Size
     75                                     10


     50                                                                Body & Accessories

                                                   Average
                                             5
                                                   27 MPG
     25
                                                                                 Powertrain


      0                                      0
            2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040     2010             2020      2030             2040


ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Electricity generation
    Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity
      Baseload, Startup 2030
      2012 cents/kWh

       16                                              $60/ton of CO2

                                                                                     Reliability
                                                                                       Cost
       12




        8




        4
                                                       $0/ton



        0
                      Coal                 Gas                  Nuclear                Onshore      Utility
                                                                                        Wind*      Solar PV*
*Wind and solar exclude costs for integration, backup capacity and additional transmission

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
    Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by Region
     Electricity Generation                               Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040
     Quadrillion BTUs                                     Quadrillion BTUs

      300                                                 120


      250
                                                           90         Renewables


      200                                   Non OECD                    Nuclear
                                                           60

      150                                                                    Gas

                                                           30
      100
                                                                         Coal

                                                            0
       50                                      OECD                          Oil



         0                                                -30
          2000                       2020          2040              Non OECD           OECD



ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
    Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by Region
     Electricity Generation                                Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040
     Quadrillion BTUs                                      Quadrillion BTUs

      300                                                  120

                                            Renewables
      250
                                                            90         Renewables

                                               Nuclear
      200                                                                Nuclear
                                                            60

      150                                                                     Gas
                                                  Coal
                                                            30
      100
                                                                          Coal

                                                             0
       50                                                                     Oil
                                                  Gas


              Oil                                          -30
         0
          2000                       2020           2040              Non OECD           OECD



ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
    Energy Mix Continues to Evolve
   Quadrillion BTUs


  225           0.8% 2040
                                                                Average Growth / Yr.
  200                                1.7%                           2010 - 2040
  175                   2010
                                                                                1.0%
  150
                                            -0.1%
  125

  100

    75
                                                     2.4%      0.4%
    50
                                                                            5.8%           1.8%
    25

      0
                 Oil                 Gas    Coal    Nuclear   Biomass   Solar / Wind /   Hydro / Geo
                                                                          Biofuels

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
    CO2 Emissions Plateau
  By Region                                                     Emissions Per Capita
  Billion Tons                                                  Tons per Person

   40                                                           20




   30                                 Rest of Non OECD          15


                                            India

   20                                                           10

                                            China                           ‘25
                                                                                  ‘40
                                                                      ‘10
   10                                                            5

                                            OECD


     0                                                           0
      2000                           2020                2040           China           India   U.S.   Europe


ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Supply
     Liquids Supply
     Supply by Type                                                                   Resource*
     MBDOE                                                                            TBO

     120                                                        Biofuels              6
                                                     Other Liquids


     100                                                                              5
                                                                           NGLs

                                                                     Oil Sands
       80                                                              Tight Oil      4
                                                                                                     Remaining
                                                                     Deepwater                       Resource

       60                                                                             3


       40                                                                             2
                                                                  Conventional
                                                           Crude & Condensate
                                                                                                     Cumulative
       20                                                                             1              Production


         0                                                                            0
          2000                2010           2020             2030             2040           2040


ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy   * Source: IEA
    Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts
     North America Gas Supply                                   Global Gas Supply
     BCFD                                                       BCFD

     120                                                        600

                                       LNG                                                           Rest of World
     100                                                        500                                 Unconventional


                                                                                                     North America
       80                                                       400                                 Unconventional



       60                                            Local      300
                                             Unconventional
                                                                                                     Rest of World
       40                                                       200                                  Conventional



       20                                                       100
                                                     Local
                                               Conventional
                                                                       North America Conventional
        0                                                         0
         2010                        2025                2040      2010                     2025                2040


ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
    North America Energy Balance
Quadrillion BTUs

     50                         Oil        Net Exports
           Net Imports
     40

     30

     20                               In-country
                                        supplies
     10
                                                         Total Energy Balance
      0                                                                             Net Exports
       2010                   2025            2040       125
                                                               Net Imports
     50                        Gas                       100
                                          Net Exports
     40                                                   75
                                                                                       In-country
     30                                                                                  supplies
                                                          50
     20
                                      In-country          25
                                        supplies
     10
                                                           0
      0                                                     2010             2025                 2040
       2010                   2025            2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
    Asia Pacific Energy Balance
Quadrillion BTUs

     90                         Oil


     60
                                      Net Imports

     30

                                       In-country
                                         supplies     Total Energy Balance
      0
       2010                   2025             2040   350
                                                      300
     90                        Gas
                                                                                Net Imports
                                                      250
                                                      200
     60
                                                      150
                                                                                 In-country
                                      Net Imports     100                          supplies
     30
                                                       50
                                       In-country
                                         supplies
                                                        0
      0                                                  2010            2025            2040
       2010                   2025             2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
    Energy Use Evolves Over Time
     Global Percent Mix of Fuels
     Percent
                                                             Other Renewables
      100
                                                                                   Nuclear
                                                                                   Hydro
        80
                                                                                   Gas


        60


                                                                                   Oil
        40



        20
                                                                                   Coal


                                                                                   Biomass
         0
             1800                    1850      1900   1950      2000            2040



Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
    Conclusions




ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

				
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