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					Climate Change and Society


                    Cases in Bioplanet Earth
                    Helen Brand
                    Johannes Kruse
                  How climate change influences life on earth
                          and how to deal with it!


           Climate change:                           Impacts on natural and
                                                     anthropogenic systems:
      global warming, variation
      in precipitation, sea level                    food and water supply,
                                        adaption        ecosystems and
        rise, extreme weather
       conditions like drought                        biodiversity, human
               or flooding                                settlements

                                                           ad      ti
                                                           ap      on


                                                        Socioeconomic
             Emissions and                               development:
             concentration:
                                         reduction      economic growth,
         greenhouse gas and                           technology, population
              aerosols                                    growth, „good“
                                                            governance


Own illustration; source: Germanwatch                                          2
                                                                                3
http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/potential-climate-change-impacts_035a#
Case: Sahel Zone
an environmentally sensitive region - “ground zero” for climate change


                           Sahara




                       subsaharan savanna




                                                             Source: wikipedia

Senegal Mauritania Mali Algeria Niger Chad Sudan South Sudan Eritrea

                                                                                 5
Case: Sahel Zone
.irregular rainfalls

.infragile soils

.almost total dependency
on rainfall

.low use of external inputs
such as improved seeds
and fertilisers

.absence of mechanisation

.poor linkage to markets




                                                                                6
                              http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/water2/page/3293.aspx
Case: Sahel Zone
.population growth
.irregular rainfalls

.land degradation
.infragile soils
(deforestation, continuous
cropping and overgrazing)
.almost total dependency
on rainfall
.reduced and
.low use of external inputs
erratic rainfall
such as improved seeds
.lack of coherent
and fertilisers
environmental policies
.absence of mechanisation
.misplaced development
priorities
.poor linkage to markets




                                                                                7
                              http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/water2/page/3293.aspx
Sea level rise




                                                                 8
     http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/water2/page/3290.aspx
Case: Bangladesh

most vulnerable nation to the impacts of climate change in the next decades




http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/water2/page/3291.aspx




                                                                              9
Case: The Netherlands

26 % of the country is below
sea level

.approximately 16.5 million
inhabitants in total

.approximately 9 million
inhabitants live below sea
level




                               10
Case: The Netherlands




 GDP (nominal) 2011 - Total $840 billion - Per capita $50.355 - Netherlands

 GDP (nominal) 2011 - Total $113 billion - Per capita $700   - Bangladesh
                                                                              11
The greater the changes in temperature, precipitation
and sea level in a given region, the more keenly the
impacts of climate change will be felt in terms of human
well-being and society.
Societies’ adaptive capacity also plays a major role,
however. The less developed the country, the lower its
adaptive capacity. Climate change will thus exacerbate
existing poverty due to its impact on ecosystem
services, health, incomes, and future growth prospects.
(WBGU, 2007)




                                                           12
Case: Germany




                13
Economic impact
Case: Germany



                  GDP




                        14
Economic impact
Case: Germany



                            GDP
         Overall costs of
         climate change
                                  Bailout Financial
                                  Crisis




                                                      15
Economic impact
Case: Germany



                            GDP
         Overall costs of
        Overall costs of
         climate change
        climate change
                                  Bailout Financial
                                  Crisis




                                                      16
International Impacts of Climate Change


  The Challenge of Maintaining International
            Security and Stability
                  How climate change influences life on earth
                          and how to deal with it!


           Climate change:                           Impacts on natural and
                                                     anthropogenic systems:
      global warming, variation
      in precipitation, sea level                    food and water supply,
                                        adaption        ecosystems and
        rise, extreme weather
       conditions like drought                        biodiversity, human
               or flooding                                settlements

                                                           ad      ti
                                                           ap      on


                                                        Socioeconomic
             Emissions and                               development:
             concentration:
                                         reduction      economic growth,
         greenhouse gas and                           technology, population
              aerosols                                    growth, „good“
                                                            governance


Own illustration; source: Germanwatch                                          19
   Accumulation of Weak and Impoverished States

• Developing countries are most affected by climate change,
  not only because of the gravity of its impacts, but due to
  the absence of a stable material and institutional
  infrastructure in order to face them.
 Relatively high economic costs
 High socioeconomic consequences/ changes
 Emerging of failing subregions




                                                               20
     Risk of Boundaries to Economic Development

• Patterns of supply of necessary goods and services as well as
  production processes can be heavily affected by climate
  change.
• e.g. in the agricultural sector: A reduction of the food
  production might hamper an evolvement of the region‘s
  economic potentials.
 Loss of economic growth worldwide




                                                                  21
Agricultur




             22
                   Distributional Conflict

• Who covers the expanses correlated with the measures of
  adaptation, especially for the developing countries
  (compensation payments)?
 Cost-by-cause principle? Who is responsible for the climate
  change?
 Increasing, the emerging countries come under pressure for
  failing to offer an explanation.
 Arising of north-south-divide!




                                                                23
       Non-Action of the Industrialised Countries:
                 Human Rights Abuse

• With their activities respectively their non- (poor) action, the
  industrialised countries endanger the livelihood of the less/
  least developed states.

 Human rights abuse
 Legitimation crisis of the western world
 Developing countries blame the global players to prevent
  them from establishing a strong economic structure and
  realising economic growth potentials and prosperity by
  insisting on a worldwide greenhouse gas reduction.
 Right of equal development vs. learning from the mistakes of
  the past

                                                                     24
   Security Risk: Environmentally-Induced Migration

• Environmentally-induced migration initially within the
  national borders but increasingly border-crossing
 Excessive demand/ overexertion of global security policy
 Who bears the costs of this migration processes?
 Consideration of environmentally-induced migration
  under international law?!




                                                             25
                  What needs to be done?
              Resulting International Initiatives
• Viable global-governance-architecture in order to overcome the
  collaboration and communication problems (in respect of the new
  world order: from unipolar to multipolar)
• Effective climate policy as a preventive security policy (not the
  classical military based security policy) in combination with an
  international development policy
• Besides prevention, adaption strategies
• Mechanisms in compensation (compensation payments)
• Global refugee policy
• Measures of stability
 Effective climate protection entails lower costs than the costs that
  can be expected due to climate change and its damages.


                                                                         26
                                               CO2 Emissions




http://www.klimawandel-                                                                                                27
bekaempfen.de/fileadmin/user_upload/klimawandel_bekaempfen/Interak_Grafiken_2012/klima/klima_co2/co2emissionen02a.html
                                               CO2 Emissions




http://www.klimawandel-                                                                                                28
bekaempfen.de/fileadmin/user_upload/klimawandel_bekaempfen/Interak_Grafiken_2012/klima/klima_co2/co2emissionen02b.html
                                                CO2 Emissions


                              China                           Germany                               Nigeria



  Per head




  Of total




                                                                                                                        29
http://www.klimawandel-
bekaempfen.de/fileadmin/user_upload/klimawandel_bekaempfen/Interak_Grafiken_2012/klima/klima_co2/co2emissionen02.html
The live of a person is more valuable than
his economic well-being, because it is more
fundamental.
Due to greenhouse gas emissions, people‘s
lives are at stake.
Consequently the reduction of greenhouse
gas emission is more important than
economic development.
Emerging countries should be obliged to a
strict per capita threshold level!

Do you agree?
                                              31
                                     References
• Germanwatch: http://www.scooltour.info/fileadmin/Dateien/Downloads/klideu07.pdf;
  http://germanwatch.org/download/klak/fb-ms-e.pdf;
• WBGU: http://www.wbgu.de/fileadmin/templates/dateien/veroeffentlichungen/hauptgutachten/
  jg2007/wbgu_jg2007.pdf
• BPB: http://www.bpb.de/gesellschaft/umwelt/klimawandel/38487/kosten-des-klimawandels;
  http://www.bpb.de/apuz/32589/wie-die-menschheit-die-klimakrise-meistern-kann-ein-optimistisches-essay;
  http://www.bpb.de/gesellschaft/migration/dossier-migration/57257/klimawandel-und-migration;
• Stern Review: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Executive_Summary.pdf
• DGVN:
  http://www.dgvn.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PUBLIKATIONEN/UN_Berichte_HDR/HDR/HDR_2007/HDR07-
  Zusammenfassung-final.pdf;
  http://www.dgvn.de/news.html?&L=0&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=298&cHash=37b532acb77ba7cd4ec2be47
  497513f0
• OECD: http://www.oecd.org/env/climatechange/21055658.pdf
• Worldbank: http://climatechange.worldbank.org/content/bangladesh-economics-adaptation-climate-change-
  study
• Climate Research Netherlands:
  http://www.climateresearchnetherlands.nl/search/item/10354094/Adaptation-cost-in-the-Netherlands-
  Climate-Change-and-flood-risk-management
• United Nations:
  http://www.unep.org/ecosystemmanagement/Portals/7/Documents/ClimateChangeSahelCombine.pdf
• Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung:
  http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.55814.de/07-11-1.pdf                          32

				
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