GLOBAL AGENDA OUTLOOK 2013

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					Global Agenda



Global Agenda
Outlook 2013
Contributors

Report Team
Lee Howell, Managing Director, Member of the Managing
Board, World Economic Forum
Martina N. Gmur, Senior Director, Head of the Network of
Global Agenda Councils, World Economic Forum
Peter Bisanz, Associate Director, Head of Outreach,
Global Agenda Councils and Risk Response Network,
World Economic Forum
Liana Melchenko, Associate Director, Head of Knowledge
Management, Global Agenda Councils, World Economic
Forum
Isabel de Sola, Senior Knowledge Manager, Global
Agenda Councils, World Economic Forum
Shubhra Saxena Kabra, Knowledge Manager, Global
Agenda Councils, World Economic Forum
Benjamin Prampart, Senior Nomination Associate, Global
Agenda Councils, World Economic Forum
Stefan Hall, Research Analyst, Global Agenda Councils,
World Economic Forum
Kyle Packer, Digital Content Associate and Survey
Analyst, Global Agenda Councils, World Economic Forum
Special thanks to the entire Global Agenda Council team

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Editorial
Michael Hanley, Editorial Director, World Economic
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Ann Brady, Associate Director, Head of Editing, World
Economic Forum
Fabienne Stassen, Director, EditOrProof


Authors
Alex Elliott, Writer
David Roberts, Writer


Visualization and Digital Content
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Contents                                  Preface

2    Contributors                                   What is the future of globalization? How can sustainable global
                                                    economic growth be achieved? What are the major geopolitical
3    Preface                                        uncertainties for 2013? These are some of the questions at the
                                                    top of the agenda of many global leaders and decision-makers.
4    Introduction
                                                    They formed the main topics of discussion over the past few
7    The Future of Globalization                    months among the 1,500 global experts from the Network of
                                                    Global Agenda Councils, over 900 of who met face-to-face
10   The Continued Quest for                        during the Summit on the Global Agenda 2012 in Dubai.
     Economic Growth
                                                    The most compelling of these debates are highlighted in this
13   Geopolitical Uncertainties                     report, with the intention of broadening our outlook for 2013. The
                                                    Global Agenda Outlook 2013 examines the existing claims and
16   Thriving in a Hyperconnected World             discussions from the perspective of some of the world’s
19   The Post-2015 Development                      foremost thought leaders, and complements these insights with
     Agenda                                         a wealth of quantitative data from surveys conducted across this
                                                    global network of experts. The result is a much more
21   Restoring Values                               comprehensive assessment about what to expect in 2013 and
                                                    beyond. In short, we see this report as a briefing document for
24   About the Network of Global                    today’s leaders.
     Agenda Councils
                                                    The Global Agenda Councils will continue to work together in
26   Portfolio of Councils                          the coming months, producing ideas and recommendations to
                                                    address the key challenges of our time. The World Economic
                                                    Forum is committed to integrating the outcomes of their work
                                                    into its activities, including at the upcoming Annual Meeting in
                                                    Davos-Klosters 2013, to ensure that they find their way into
                                                    global decision-making processes.

                                                    The World Economic Forum would like to express its sincere
                                                    gratitude to all the Members of Global Agenda Councils, whose
                                                    conversations at the Summit in Dubai and in their virtual
                                                    meetings are the foundations of this report. Special thanks are
                                                    due to the main authors of the chapters for their contributions.

                                                    I hope that the Global Agenda Outlook 2013 provides you with
                                                    valuable insights to guide your decision-making in the coming
                                                    year. I invite you to continue these debates with Members of our
                                                    Network, to share your ideas and develop concrete action plans
                                                    which can help to shape a better future.

                                                    Get involved at
                                                    www.forumblog.org/communities/global-agenda-councils


                                                    Martina N. Gmür
                                                    Senior Director, Head of the Network of Global Agenda Councils,
                                                    World Economic Forum




                                                                                                          Global Agenda Outlook 2013   3
                                                                                 - A theme common to all these
                                                                                   discussions is the increased role of
                                                                                   technology in 2013 and its associated
                                                                                   risks. Chapter 4 captures the main
                                                                                   opportunities and risks faced by an
                                                                                   increasingly hyperconnected world,
                                                                                   not only what it means for citizens, but
                                                                                   also for the urban environment of
                                                                                   tomorrow.
                                                                                 - Chapter 5 highlights the complexities
                                                                                   of the post-2015 development agenda
                                                                                   and examines how economic
                                                                                   development and environmental
                                                                                   sustainability can be balanced.
                                                                                 - Chapter 6 – restoring our value system
                                                                                   – seeks to bring all the pieces together,
                                                                                   with a focus on revisiting core values in
                                                                                   decision-making and leadership.

                                                                                 The chapters follow three distinct
                                                                                 formats, reflecting the variety and
                                                                                 richness of the conversations that took
                                                                                 place at the Summit on Global Agenda
                                                                                 2012. The chapters on globalization,
                                                                                 economic growth and hyperconnectivity
                                                                                 are presented as expert question-and-
Introduction                     The Global Agenda Outlook 2013 is a
                                 publication of the Network of Global            answer sessions. The chapters on the
                                 Agenda Councils, a unique network of            post-2015 agenda and on values offer
                                 over 1,500 of the world’s most relevant         expert views in sharp and succinct
                                 experts from academia, business, civil          counter-pieces. Finally, the chapter on
                                 society, government and international           geopolitical risks is designed as a “fly on
                                 organizations. This report provides             the wall” vignette, in which listeners have
                                 insights and views into pressing global         dropped into a conversation between
                                 issues, through a collection of survey          two experts.
                                 results and interactive discussions
                                 among Members of the Network. The               Most urgent issues to address*
                                 survey data combines 1500 responses
                                 from GAC Members and industry                   14% Unstable Global Economy

                                 leaders.
                                                                                   %
                                                                                 11% Eurozone Fragility

                                 The Global Agenda Outlook 2013 is               10% Financial System Instability
                                 structured around six chapters, each
                                                                                  9% Widening Income Inequality
                                 tackling a specific issue: globalization,
                                 economic growth, geopolitical risks,             9% Persistent Structural Unemployment
                                 hyperconnectivity, the post-2015
                                                                                  8% Global Leadership Vacuum
                                 development agenda, and values. Each
                                 chapter is intended to offer readers a           8% Climate Change Adaptation
                                 taste of a conversation between two
                                                                                  7% Economic Driven Social Unrest
                                 experts, complemented by data from
                                 the Global Agenda Survey.                        6% Natural Resource Scarcity

                                 - Chapter 1 focuses on the effects of            6% Chronic Fiscal Imbalances
                                    globalization and touches on income
                                                                                  4% Shifting Balance of Power
                                    inequality, employment, technology
                                    and global governance.                        4%   Rising Influence of Emerging Economies

                                 - Chapter 2 concentrates on an issue             2%   Hyperconnectivity
                                    that has dominated discussions for the
                                    past five years – economics, and the          1%   Generational Shift in Values

                                    prospects of continued economic               1%   Internet Governance
                                    growth given the uncertain times.
                                 - Chapter 3 sheds light on changing
                                    regional dynamics and potential future
                                    threats by analysing some of the              *The level of urgency was ranked on a top 5 scale
                                                                                  during a knowledge capture session in Dubai
                                    world’s high-risk geopolitical situations.




4   Global Agenda Outlook 2013
All these discussions have been
                                             The ranking of the trends on the left-hand side is taken from the initial online survey.
supplemented with updated data based
                                             The right-hand side shows a follow-up ranking, taken during a knowledge capture
on the opinions of Members of the
                                             session at the Summit on the Global Agenda in Dubai.
Network of Global Agenda Councils,
gathered before and during the Summit             Initial Survey (July 2012)                          Dubai follow-up Survey (November 2012)

on the Global Agenda 2012 in Dubai,               14% Eurozone Crisis
                                                    %                                                  12% Uncertain economic outlook
featuring about 1500 responses. An
initial survey among the Global Agenda            12% Uncertain Economic Outlook
                                                    %                                                   9% Eurozone crisis
Councils community, conducted in
June-July 2012 and updated in                     7% Digital / Communications                           6% Growth / Stabilization
                                                       Revolution
November 2012 during the Summit,
sought to identify global trends for 2013,        5% Scarcity of Resources                              6% Global Leadership Vacuum
while the pattern of transition from a
trend ranking to an issue of urgency that         5% Global Power Shifts                                6% Inequality
emerged during the Summit offers
insights into participants’ underlying            5% Global Leadership Vacuum                           5% Global power shifts
concerns. When data and debates
come together, what emerges is an                 5% Global interdependency                             5% Climage change
outlook with a number of clearly defined
themes to watch in 2013.                          4% Financial System Instability                       5% Financial system
                                                                                                             instability

Alongside continuing concerns about               4% Climate Change                                     5% Unemployment
unstable global economic prospects
(concerns somewhat mitigated by a                 3% Public Debt Crisis                                 5% Digital/communications
                                                                                                             revolution
sense of reserved optimism about the
capacity of the eurozone to avert
disaster), one particularly prevalent
theme is the ever-growing significance
of the economic rise of China. The
influence this might have on a global
scale remains to be determined. It will
depend as much on the country’s
internal progress (in areas such as
                                             Overall measurement in the confidence of global leadership to solve                            Very Confident
market reforms and combating income                                                                                                        Confident
                                             different issues, taken during a knowledge capture session at the
disparity) as on its external focus (and     Summit on the Global Agenda 2012 in Dubai.
                                                                                                                                           Neutral
                                                                                                                                           Not Confident
the diplomatic decisions the country has                                                                                                   Not at all Confident

to take in areas as diverse as East Asia
and the Middle East). The new Chinese        %
                                             60
leadership, it seems, has come to power
at a potentially crucial moment for the      50

country and the world at large.              40

                                             30

The widening global gap between rich         20

and poor is also a concern – from fears      10

about high levels of unemployment in          0
                                                       Major Systemic               Chronic Fiscal   Severe Income                Persistent Structural
the (demographically young) Arab world                     Failure                   Imbalances        Disparities                  Unemployment
threatening social cohesion, to
frustration at the high number of people
who continue to live on less than US$ 2
a day, even as the landmark global
development year of 2015 approaches.
Such inequality may sometimes be seen
as an inevitable consequence of
globalized capitalism; ignoring it,
however, brings huge risk.




                                                                                                                           Global Agenda Outlook 2013            5
Not giving sufficient attention to the
possibilities and potential risks of new       How will free-market capitalism be seen in 5 years?                                                                           Positive
                                                                                                                                                                             Neutral
                                               By Stakeholder
technology is another emerging risk. If        %
                                                                                                                                                                             Negative

new technology is the best hope for            50
sustained global economic growth, it           40
also needs to be pursued and exploited         30
with care both for people (changing            20
technology requires a changing                 10
international labour market) and the
                                                0             Business           Civil Society &    Government      International               NGO             University &
planet. The spectre of man-made                                                       Other                         Organization                                 Think Tank
climate change – and the apparent              By Region
                                               %
inability of society to reverse it – remains   70
in the background of many of the               60
discussions that follow. Meanwhile, the
                                               50
benefits of an increasingly
                                               40
hyperconnected world for individuals
                                               30
and society are alternately doubted and
championed, thereby underlining the            20

complexity of an issue landscape that          10

ranges from cybershocks to smart                0              Asia                     Europe      Latin America   Middle East/            North America      Sub-Saharan
                                                                                                                    North Africa                                  Africa
cities.

One theme that recurs more than any
other is the need for clear, dynamic
leadership in a fast changing world.
Given (as one participant noted) that
most of today’s leaders – political,
                                               Do you feel that the recent leadership change in China will improve or worsen the
business, academic and society – grew
                                               following issues?*
up in a vastly different world from                                                                Chinese market       International use of               Less income
                                                                      Greater reform
today’s, it is perhaps no surprise that                                  of SOEs                      opening            Chinese currency               disparities in China
leadership remains the biggest                      improve                                              Asia                       Asia                    Middle East/
                                                                                                                                                            North Africa
challenge of all for 2013 and beyond.                                     Asia
                                                                          Latin America                                         Europe                       Latin America

Our interactive website and data
visualizations feature more unique data                                    Europe

and content, as well as the extended                                                                   Europe
                                                                                                                             Sub-Saharan
                                                                                                                             Africa
transcripts of the conversations (www.
weforum.org/gac).                                   neutral              Sub-Saharan
                                                                         Africa
                                                                                                     Sub-Saharan
                                                                                                     Africa
                                                                                                                                                            Sub-Saharan
                                                                                                                                                            Africa

                                                                                                    Middle East/
                                                                                                    North Africa


                                                                                                    North America                                             Asia


                                                                         North America                                      North America


                                                                         Middle East/               Latin America            Latin America                   Europe
                                                    worsen               North Africa
                                                                                                                             Middle East/                    North America
                                                                                                                             North Africa

                                                                                                                       *Differences in responses between regions are relative.




6    Global Agenda Outlook 2013
  The Future of Globalization



As the pace of globalization              Q: What are the best and worst things              Pascal Lamy: The best thing to come out
                                          about globalization?                               of globalization has been poverty
continues to increase, new                                                                   reduction, and the worst is inequality.
opportunities and challenges              Kevin Rudd: The spreading of wealth is
                                          the key benefit in my view: globalization is
                                                                                             Because globalization is extremely
                                                                                             efficient, inequalities within countries and
will arise for leaders and                lifting economic growth rates and living           among countries have increased: poverty
                                          standards around much, though not all,             reduction is absolute, inequality is relative.
communities. While                        of the developing world, and in                    And if we don’t change these inequalities,
globalization has brought                 developed countries as well.                       the social reaction will endanger
                                                                                             globalization. I come at this issue as a
immense benefits to many                  The worst thing is the disconnect                  person from the left, and think inequalities
sectors, certain countries                between the volume of activity that now            in themselves should be addressed. But
                                          requires regulation at a global level and          even if I came from the right, pushing
and individuals remain                    national political systems incapable of            globalization for efficiency, I would want to
vulnerable, whose interests               agreeing on global forms of governance             address the problem, so that populist,
                                          to do that.                                        sovereignist, isolationist reactions do not
should be protected and                                                                      hinder the positive side of globalization.
promoted. How can
societies best approach the               In your region, will advancing globalization have a positive or negative impact overall?
challenges this presents?                            Asia                      Latin America                         North America
                                                     Europe                    Middle East/North Africa              Sub-Saharan Africa


The Outlook on the Global Agenda
brought together Pascal Lamy (left),
Director-General, World Trade
                                              34%
Organization, and Kevin Rudd (middle),                                                                                                      35%
Prime Minister of Australia (2007–2010)        31%
                                                                                                                                            32%
and current Member of Parliament.                21%
Ngaire Woods, Dean of the Blavatnik                                            93%                         7%                             24%

School of Government, University of                    5%                     positive                    negative
                                                                                                                               0%
Oxford, moderated the discussion.                       5%
                                                                                                                                  9%
                                                        4%
                                                                                                                               0%




                                                                                                                      Global Agenda Outlook 2013   7
                                                                                                                to the global economy right now, and to
    How confident are you about the current capacities of global leadership to solve
    severe income disparities?                                                                                  add new activity in a way that wouldn’t
                                                                                                                cost an arm and a leg, is open trade. If the
       North America
       Europe                                                                                                   two leading global economic powers of
       Asia                                                                                                     the Chinese and Americans chose to
       Latin America
       Sub-Saharan Africa
                                                                   19% 18%
                                                                                                                make this work tomorrow, it could.
       Middle East/North Africa
                                                                         11%

                                             5% 5% 6%                                     8% 7%
                                                                                                5%              Pascal Lamy: I think the environmental
                        1% 2% 1%                        1% 1% 1%               2% 3% 1%              1% 1% 1%
                                                                                                                sustainability issue is not being
                                                                                                                adequately addressed at present. I am
                                                                                                                not saying we don’t have problems in
                                                                                                                trade – we do need to keep opening it,
       0%                          4%            19%                   54%                    23%               and the Doha Round was and still is a
        Very                                                             Not                  Not at all
      Confident
                                  Confident        Neutral
                                                                       Confident               Confident
                                                                                                                recipe for doing that. But it is not the only
                                                                                                                recipe, there are many – if we revamp, for
                                                                                                                example, the information technology
                                                                                                                agreement, we could bring a lot more
                                                                                                                open trade. With trade, so far we’ve
                                                                                                                succeeded in not receding – we haven’t
Q: How can globalization be made “safe”                      Q: Is there any part of globalization that
                                                                                                                damaged the system. On the
for the people who are being made less                       you think is improving the ability of
                                                                                                                environment, we are moving this planet
equal?                                                       individuals to hold those in power to
                                                                                                                backwards in terms of well-being, and
                                                             account?
                                                                                                                that’s why I think the environment should
Kevin Rudd: Inequality is an inevitable
                                                                                                                be the priority.
consequence of capitalism. The key is                        Pascal Lamy: Technology, the infrastruc-
managing the level of inequality. Whether                    ture of globalization, has huge empower-
you come from the perspective of equality                    ment capacity, and it doesn’t make
of opportunity or enlightened self-interest,                 governments’ lives easier. Governments
the net consequence of both is a level of                    will regulate globalization if their constitu-
social intervention. I do not support the                    encies give them the mandate to do so
ultimate neo-liberal form of globalization                   – if governments don’t do it, it is because
but one based on a social democratic                         they don’t presently have the necessary
conditionality. That means ensuring that                     political energy at home. The danger for
those who are temporarily losers are                         democracy comes from globalization not
supported by adequate safety nets and                        being harnessed, because people believe
able to readjust to other forms of                           there is nothing they can do.
employment.
                                                             Kevin Rudd: The essence of globalization
I think waiting for the magical marketplace                  is the contraction of time and space in
to resolve these questions is self-                          international transactions through the
delusional. There are also economic                          platform of new technologies. Citizens,
dimensions to this. The net impact on                        including some of those in the poorest
government budgets of large-scale,                           countries, are now globally wired. But
long-term unemployment in terms of lost                      managing the business of existing
revenue through collapsing wages is                          democratic constituencies through                  The danger for democracy
significant – far better to be more radical                  regular election processes, and the new            comes from globalization not
in your interventions to get people back to                  constituencies in a more chaotic form              being harnessed because
work.                                                        through new technologies, makes the                people believe there is nothing
                                                             business of democratic governance more
Pascal Lamy: In Europe, Nordic countries                     complex than ever.
                                                                                                                they can do.
have addressed inequality reasonably well,
southern countries have not. I think it is                   Q: What is the most important element of
necessary and can be done. Governments                       cooperation needed to make international           Pascal Lamy
need to address their debt overhang, which                   globalization safe?
will take time, and make the necessary
structural reforms to grow to their potential.               Kevin Rudd: A core problem is the WTO’s
                                                             inability to deliver a Doha Round – the one
At an international level, we need proper                    easy route to providing an extra 0.5% or
global governance that has the necessary                     even 1% in global growth in a growth-
tools, power and intervention capacity to                    challenged world. It’s not the WTO’s fault;
recreate a more level playing field.                         it’s the inability of national governments to
                                                             allow that institution to work by giving it an
                                                             effective political mandate. The most
                                                             basic ingredient to globalization is to have
                                                             open economies, and the most important
                                                             sub-element of that is open lines of
                                                             commerce. One way to add confidence


8       Global Agenda Outlook 2013
Q: Is the G20 the place to get the world to      Q: What would you put top of the agenda
focus on climate change?                         for leaders to debate at the World
                                                 Economic Forum Annual Meeting in
Pascal Lamy: After its second meeting,           Davos in 2013?
the G20 decided not to talk about the
environment anymore – it was too divisive.       Kevin Rudd: In terms of the sustainability
But we all know the basic components of          of globalization, it would be a new
an environmental agreement have to take          strategic roadmap for China and the US.
place within the G20. This is where the          Then, to work on things that they can
countries that are preventing the                agree on – globally that would be
agreement happening – because they               reaching a compact on delivering Doha,
disagree – are all around the table.             and climate change; and within our
                                                 region, Asia Pacific, beginning to work out
Kevin Rudd: Global institutions provide          the security rules of the road in East Asia.
the mechanism to make globalization
                                                                                                          One way to add confidence to
work but they require national political         Pascal Lamy: The crucial issue is for each               the global economy, and to
governments to work, too. If a large             to make an effort to understand where                    add new activity in a way that
enough grouping within the G20 said “this        the other is coming from. A radical recipe               wouldn’t cost an arm and a
needs to be done”, it could be. The G20 is       would be for each of these leaders to                    leg, is open trade.
not just a clearing house, but a                 come to Davos with an anthropologist –
marshalling mechanism.                           the leader saying nothing, the
                                                 anthropologist explaining to the others the
                                                                                                          Kevin Rudd
Q: What is the shock you most fear in            specificities of his or her country. I think
2013?                                            once they’d done that, the leaders would
                                                 understand each other better and                         Insights revealed during a session
Pascal Lamy: At the low probability end,         probably have a much higher capacity to                  entitled “The Impact of De-globalization”
but with a very high damaging capacity, is       converge on issues.                                      during the Summit on the Global Agenda
cyber risk. We who follow politics closely                                                                2012:1
know that there is a much higher risk from
                                                                                                          - Globalization and easier access to
that side than is acknowledged in public
                                                                                                            information and disclosure are too often
debate. Political instability in the Middle
                                                                                                            seen as solely positive, whereas they are
East may have a lower immediate global
                                                                                                            also creating a world that is more volatile
impact, but a higher probability to create
                                                                                                            with increased economic uncertainty.
shocks.
                                                                                                          - In the current volatile environment,
Kevin Rudd: A cybersecurity attack that                                                                     globalization and de-globalization may
collapsed platforms for engagement in a                                                                     alternate, and even co-exist. Across
global context would be catastrophic.                                                                       localities, countries, regions, but also
                                                                                                            sectors and industries, globalization
                                                                                                            and de-globalization are considered
                                                                                                            less and less mutually exclusive.
                                                                                                          - There is a loss of trust in the ability of
Do you agree or disagree that human development is becoming more ecologically
sustainable?*                                                                                               governments, even if democratically
                                                                                                            elected, as well as business leaders to
     Strongly Agree       3%                   6%                                 4%                        resolve crises and improve lives in their
                         47%                  30%                                52%
     Agree
     Disagree            41%
                         41%                  50%
                                              50%                                41%
                                                                                 41%                        communities.
     Strongly Disagree    9%                  14
                                              14%                                 3%
                                                                                                          - Success of global governance as a
                                              Civil Society
                                                                                                            central pillar of globalization is much
                          Business                                              Government
                                                & Other                                                     more outcomes-driven than process-
                                                                                                            driven. Trust will only be earned if
                                                                                                            solutions are delivered.
                                                                                                          - Globalization is continuing in migration,
                           2%                  8%                                 3%                        global food production systems and
                          33%                 19%                                41%
                          56%
                          56%                 57%
                                              57%                                48%
                                                                                 48%                        the tertiary education sector (student
                           9%                 16
                                              16%                                 8%
                                                                                  8%
                                                                                                            flows, global outreach of universities).
                         International                                           University
                                                                                                            However, examples of de-globalization
                                                 NGO                            & Think Tank                can be seen in the manufacturing and
                         Organization
                                                                                                            production sector.
                                                                                                          For more information on the Summit,
                                                                                                          please visit www.weforum.org/events/
                                         *We grouped respondents according to their stakeholder groups.
                                                                                                          summit-global-agenda-2012

                                                                                                          1
                                                                                                            The Global Agenda Councils on Institutional Governance
                                                                                                          Systems, India, Geopolitical Risk, the Future of the Internet, and
                                                                                                          the Rule of Law, among other Councils, contributed to the
                                                                                                          discussions in this session. More information on the Network of
                                                                                                          Global Agenda Councils can be found at: http://www.weforum.
                                                                                                          org/global-agenda-councils-experience-2012.


                                                                                                                                       Global Agenda Outlook 2013              9
The Continued Quest for
Economic Growth

The global financial crisis                 Q: Have we come to the end of the road         The precondition for that, however, is to
                                            in terms of productivity gains available to    recalibrate the financial sector so that it is
revealed the interconnected                 us in developed countries?                     proportional to the real economy – and
nature of the world’s                       Fu Jun: To me, advanced economies
                                                                                           that is a difficult policy issue, involving
                                                                                           both economics and politics. Whether or
economies, highlighting the                 seem to have exhausted the potential of        not the kind of public policies that we
                                            this historical period called                  currently have would allow a country like
need for coordinated global                 industrialization. Beyond                      the US to re-industrialize with a greener
policy and governance. Five                 industrialization, I have not been             orientation is open to question.
                                            persuaded about additional sources of
years on, restoring                         productivity increases in the developed        Then there’s technological progress, and
sustainable economic                        world. We’ve been told wonderful stories       here we should be careful – that may have
                                            about IT and service-oriented industries.      negative distributional implications for the
growth remains a top priority               If you employ IT, will that increase           global economy. If we have a whole range
for policy-makers around the                productivity? Yes, it may, but to what         of robotics to replace human labour, what
                                            extent? We haven’t had a firm answer on        is the implication for income
globe, but it remains an                    that in spite of all kinds of research. With   redistribution? One scenario would be
elusive goal. Where has                     service-oriented firms – investment            that you drive the gap between rich and
                                            banking, legal services, accounting            poor further apart, distorting supply and
growth gone and how can it                  services, etc. – if you reconfigure assets     demand and resulting in overcapacity.
be restored in today’s                      on a global scale, will that increase
                                            productivity? It may, but again, to what
                                                                                           Now, if you have a mismatch between the
                                                                                           supply-side and the demand-side on a
volatile, interconnected                    extent? Looking back, the efficiency           global scale, that’s not good for the global
                                            enhancement of these stories has been          economy.
world?                                      exaggerated.
The Outlook on the Global Agenda
                                            But I do see additional sources of growth
brought together Michael Spence (left),
                                            beyond industrialization in the advanced
William R. Berkley Professor of
                                            countries. If they underwent a process of
Economics and Business, NYU Stern
                                            re-industrialization – producing goods
School of Business, and Fu Jun (middle),
                                            with a greener orientation – that could be
Executive Dean and Professor of Political
                                            a dramatic additional source of growth.
Economy, School of Government, Peking
University. Scott Kalb, Chief Executive
Officer, KLTI Advisors, moderated the       Do you agree that growth in emerging economies will compensate
discussion.                                 for a lack of growth elsewhere?*




                                             0




10   Global Agenda Outlook 2013
Michael Spence: None of us ever knows
                                               Do you agree that the eurozone will break up in the next 3 years?*
where future growth is going to come           %
from. If we were sitting here in 1980,         80

although the Internet existed, nobody          70
anticipated the enormous effects it would
                                               60
have. Long-term innovation and
productivity-induced growth rates in           50

advanced countries are probably 2-2.5%         40

in real terms, and I’m not sure we have a      30
good reason to think that will drop.
                                               20

When I look at the US economy, we have         10

nanotechnology, we have much more               0           Asia          Europe         Latin America      Middle East        North America      Sub-Saharan
capable robotics, we have what’s                    Strongly Agree   Disagree
                                                                                                           / North Africa                            Africa
sometimes called 3D printing and,                   Agree            Strongly Disagree                      *We grouped respondents according to their regions.
although it may have major environmental
effects, we have game-changing
increments in energy coming through            absence of strong exports, domestically it                world, we shouldn’t have a stronger
shale gas and oil. So, just focusing on the    must have a reasonable match between                      emphasis on the asset side of the balance
US economy, I would say there are pretty       supply-side growth potentials and                         sheet. Now this can quickly become
good reasons to believe in future growth.      demand-side growth potentials. Unless                     ideological. If you have policies that
And developing countries haven’t come          China is successful in achieving that, the                expand the asset side of the balance
close to exhausting the potential of           economy will be in trouble.                               sheet in a big way, then you have the
productivity catch-up – so that looks                                                                    potential to mismanage it and start
good as a growth engine for themselves         Q: What is the proper role of the state in                interfering in the economy. I think there’s a
and everybody else, too.                       helping to foster growth?                                 very interesting conversation to be had
                                                                                                         here about how you get the best of both
Q: Will growth be uneven in the                Fu Jun: The ultimate source of growth is                  worlds.
developing world?                              technological progress, so if you are at
                                               the frontier of human knowledge, you
Michael Spence: The World Bank                 probably need to give a bigger role to the
estimates that over the next 5 to 10 years,    market as no one knows in advance what
China will export something like 85-100        the next correct move is. But if you are
million jobs to earlier-stage developing       behind that frontier, and in the game of
countries, and that they will be replaced      catching up, it probably makes sense to
by higher-value-added activities. This is      give a bigger role to government. Being
the opportunity of the century for the         behind, at least you have a sense of
earlier stage developing countries,            direction. That being said, even in
because for a long time they’ve been           emerging markets we need to think
saying, rightly or wrongly, that they can’t    carefully about proportionality between
compete with China. Well, China is             government and the market. If transitional
moving on just like Korea did before, and      economies like China want to continue to
now is their chance.                           gain ground in terms of efficient allocation
                                               of resources, market-oriented reforms will
Fu Jun: Until recently, China’s growth         continue to be very important.
strategy has had three drivers: exports,
investment and consumption. With the           Michael Spence: We live in a world of                     Regardless of whether it’s a
world economy slowing down, exports            increasingly densely networked                            developing or advanced
are out. So you have investment and            interconnectedness, where the                             economy, what you need is a
consumption. The problem with                  interconnectedness is way ahead of                        government that has the
investment is that a high proportion of        regulatory governance structures. It looks                resources and the capacity to
investment continues to be made by the         and feels potentially volatile. In that
government, not the private sector, and        context, what you need is government –                    respond to shocks.
it’s not sustainable for the government to     regardless of whether it’s developing or
inject a lot of fiscal money into the system   advanced – that has the resources and
long term. So what is left is consumption.     capacity to respond to shocks: to provide                 Michael Spence
To sustain growth, China has to boost          bridging demand in the case of a demand
private consumption.                           shock, to invest heavily when structural
                                               change is required.
If one looks at growth potentials on the
supply-side of the Chinese economy, the        I completely agree with Fu Jun that the
picture seems clear. As long as China          role of government, in a developing
continues to close the technological gap       country on a multi-decade journey to be
with advanced economies, there is huge         an advanced country, keeps changing. I
potential. However, the picture is less        also believe that we need a serious
clear on the demand-side. For the              discussion in the advanced economies
Chinese economy to move forward in the         about whether or not, in a shock-prone

                                                                                                                                Global Agenda Outlook 2013        11
                                           Q: What are the systemic risks leaders         Insights revealed by discussions on
                                           should be looking out for in 2013 and          economics during the Summit on the
                                           beyond?                                        Global Agenda 2012:2

                                           Michael Spence: Number one would be            - The financial industry is experiencing a
                                           Europe – the European Union is a flawed          severe deterioration of trust amplified
                                           structure and they haven’t fixed it yet.         by structural breakdown and the crisis
                                           Number two would be the US, because              of 2007-09. There is no easy solution
                                           the government is split and that will make       to restore trust within the system, as it
                                           people nervous. Number three is China.           will require time for financial institutions
                                           As we’ve discussed, the country has an           to prove their value through continued
                                           internal debate going on about the right         actions. However, possible solutions
                                           model, and there are powerful vested             include transparency on the strategic
                                           interests involved. I don’t happen to be         direction and activities of financial
          If industrialized nations        pessimistic, but there is a scenario in          institutions, and a more harmonized
         underwent a process of            which the wrong people get hold of the           supervisory system.
 re-industrialization – producing          reform agenda and it stalls. And at this       - Investment in innovation, technology
             goods with a greener          stage of its growth, for China that would        and productivity should be increased
                                           produce an immediate economic                    to reduce inequality. Through
     orientation – that could be a
                                           implosion.                                       government investment in these areas,
   dramatic additional source of                                                            the right environment will be created
                           growth.         Fu Jun: In China, the current system –           for the private sector to flourish and
                                           halfway between plan and market – can            ultimately create jobs. Rent-seeking
                                           foster corruption, which in turn can give        and any efforts by governments to deal
                                  Fu Jun   rise to social and political tensions and        directly with employment yield very
                                           add a further layer of complexity to             limited results.
                                           economic development. If political             - The European fiscal crisis has proved
                                           powers monopolize factors of production          once again the interconnected nature
                                           while only utilizing markets for goods and       of global economies and the contagion
                                           services, and only some people have              of consequences that policies in one
                                           access to both sides of the equation, you        country or region may have on the rest
                                           will have a powerful institutional logic         of the world. Thus, facilitating
                                           driving the gap between rich and poor.           adjustment processes that are globally
                                           These negative implications for wealth           compatible remains a key challenge for
                                           distribution would eventually lead to weak       the international monetary system.
                                           domestic consumption. China must
                                           continue to press ahead with market-           For more information on the Summit,
                                           oriented reforms, including the rule of law,   please visit www.weforum.org/events/
                                           so that it has a better chance of moving       summit-global-agenda-2012
                                           out of the “middle-income trap” and
                                           becoming a higher-income country.


                                           Do you agree that the recent leadership
                                           changes in China will lead to a drop in
                                           income inequality in the country?




                                                  4%        31%      57%         8%
                                                Strongly   Agree   Disagree   Strongly
                                                 Agree                        Disagree




                                                                                          2
                                                                                            The Global Agenda Councils on New Growth Models,
                                                                                          Long-Term Investing, the International Monetary System, and
                                                                                          New Economic Thinking, among other Councils, contributed to
                                                                                          the discussions in this session. More information on the Network
                                                                                          of Global Agenda Councils can be found at: http://www.
                                                                                          weforum.org/global-agenda-councils-experience-2012.


12   Global Agenda Outlook 2013
Geopolitical Uncertainties



Around the world, 1.6 billion            Present Models of Conflict Resolution           Ian Bremmer: It’s very clear that we have
                                                                                         a state-centric approach to conflicts.
people are affected by                   Javier Solana: I think that we continue to
                                                                                         States are engaged mostly in conflict
                                         look at the problems of the world today
ongoing conflict. Although               from a Western-centric viewpoint, and
                                                                                         management at a global scale and so
                                                                                         they want other things to look like states
the international community              that we do not understand the past so
                                                                                         – this is an Afghanistan problem, this is an
                                         well – and I distinguish between history
                                                                                         Africa problem, it’s a Middle East
has been successful at                   and memory. History is the history of a
                                                                                         problem. With colonization we created
                                         country; memory is what we recall of
reducing overall levels of               what we have done before in these
                                                                                         things that looked like states but weren’t
                                                                                         states; with conflict resolution we try to fix
violence, regional hotspots              countries in a shorter period of time. If you
                                                                                         them in ways that make them look like
                                         take the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, we
continue to flare at                     easily lose our memory of what we have
                                                                                         states when they are not states. And this
                                                                                         is only going to become more of a
enormous human and                       done since, for instance, the Madrid
                                                                                         challenge over time. Meanwhile, where
                                         Conference, Oslo, etc. All that has
economic cost. Which                     disappeared from the scene, it is not used
                                                                                         conflict is coming from is changing – it’s
                                                                                         increasingly not security conflict, it’s
conflicts will give cause for            and we start everything from scratch; that
                                                                                         economic conflict.
                                         is really a very important mistake.
greatest concern in 2013
                                                                                         I think Asia is by far the biggest challenge.
and what should leaders do               Also, in the past we looked at conflicts
                                                                                         But the US is focusing on Asia as primarily
                                         mentally from a hard security point of
to address them?                         view. Now the reality has changed. In
                                                                                         a defence challenge when it is primarily
                                                                                         an economic challenge. China is not a
                                         today’s conflicts, you don’t see tanks, you
The Outlook on the Global Agenda                                                         global or even much of a regional military
                                         see special forces and something very
brought together Javier Solana,                                                          threat – it is an enormous challenge from
                                         dangerous to my mind, drones. The risk is
President, Center for Global Economy                                                     an economic perspective. And that is not
                                         that we have started playing with these
and Geopolitics of ESADE and                                                             the way it’s being addressed.
                                         things without thinking of the
Distinguished Senior Fellow in Foreign   consequences.
Policy, Brookings Institution, and Ian
Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group.
Wadah Khanfar, Co-Founder, Al Sharq      Do you agree that the next decade will
Forum, moderated the discussion.         see more international use of the
                                         Chinese currency?




                                                             58%
                                                             Agree




                                                         Strongly Agree      9%
                                                         Agree               49%
                                                         Disagree            39%
                                                         Strongly Disagree   3%




                                                                                                            Global Agenda Outlook 2013   13
Major Geopolitical Risks in 2013                 So right now, for world leadership, the US
                                                 isn’t doing it, the Europeans aren’t doing
Ian Bremmer: There are three big
                                                 it, they’re busy. The Japanese of course
geopolitical conflicts out there now that
                                                 aren’t doing it. The Chinese and Russians
are really altering the balance. Number
                                                 are very limited. So, who’s doing it?
one is the Arab Spring/Winter, however
you want to define it, and instability in that
                                                 Leaders mustn’t let the perfect be the
part of the world. Number two is the
                                                 enemy of the good. Even if initiatives are
eurozone crisis. And number three is the
                                                 piecemeal and sub-global, they are still
rise of China. Of these, by far the most
                                                 steps in the right direction. Leaders must
important and dangerous from my
                                                 recognize that when global action isn’t
perspective is the third – it is the one that
                                                 possible – or possible fast enough – it’s
impacts the entire world; it actually dwarfs
                                                 important to prioritize the next best thing.
the other two in terms of size of challenge.
                                                 Do you agree that the eurozone will                             I think that we continue to look
Javier Solana: My greatest concern is a
negotiated solution to Iran’s nuclear
                                                 break up in the next 3 years?*                                  at the problems of the world
stand-off – a potential flashpoint of                                                                            from a Western-centric
existential proportions – but the rise of                                                                        viewpoint, and that we do not
China is a fundamental issue for a number                                                                        understand the past so well
of reasons. Look at the energy structure in                                80%                                   – and I distinguish between
the world at the moment, with the US                                       Disagree
increasingly autonomous. Now, if you were
                                                                                                                 history and memory.
Chinese, thinking ahead you might say, “my
goodness, the problems of the Middle East
are going to be my problems”. Why?                                      Strongly Agree      2%
                                                                                                                 Javier Solana
Because eventually the US may be less                                   Agree
                                                                        Disagree
                                                                                            17%
                                                                                            64%
interested in the Middle East – not                                     Strongly Disagree   17%

completely uninterested with Israel and          *Respondents who strongly agreed or strongly disagreed were
lines of communication such as the Suez          counted with double the weight of less sure respondents.

Canal – but you might think that China will
need to have more interest in what is going
                                                 Javier Solana: I think that, as a leader,
on in the Middle East than before.
                                                 President Obama has the opportunity to
Meanwhile, Syria’s civil war remains hugely
                                                 do a lot of good during his second term
disturbing on humanitarian, security and
                                                 – a strong leader in the US could foster a
political levels. War is not being played out
                                                 new situation. With Iran, for example, I
within country borders alone, while support
                                                 have not been optimistic on negotiations
for each side comes from allies both near
                                                 because often you don’t know who you’re
and far. The blockage of the P5 is a serious
                                                 talking to. It’s difficult, but it’s not
and lamentable factor in this regard.
                                                 impossible, and I think that the US needs
                                                 to make a bilateral approach.
On the Threshold of a New Era?
Javier Solana: Another thing that is very
                                                 Ian Bremmer: The best thing that Obama
important in the context of the Middle East
                                                 can do is to try to get the American house
is to define what we’re going to have after
                                                 sufficiently in order so that the average
the Arab Spring. Maybe we are going to
                                                 American starts being interested in the
have a Muslim Brotherhood region, and if
                                                 US playing a global role again. If that
that is the case we had better prepare to
                                                 doesn’t happen, the average American
understand the consequences of that.
                                                 will increasingly think of the international
Such an outcome would require
                                                 environment as somewhere hostile to
tremendous change in an important actor
                                                 their country’s interests.
– the US – who, because of Israel, won’t
abandon the region completely. I also
think that the European Union should try         We asked Chinese and American
to construct a clearer policy here.              respondents whether they agreed that
                                                 global cooperation is improving.
                                                     USA
Ian Bremmer: The world order today is                China
characterized very much by an absence
of leadership. The Chinese are certainly
going to play a greater role in the Middle
East, but they are not doing it yet. Look at
Sudan: very clearly if anyone has an
interest in Sudan, it’s China. What has
China done to try to defend its interest in
Sudan? Radically less than the Europeans
or the Americans would have done                  0%     1%      54% 38%          40%       56%      6% 5%
                                                   Strongly           Agree         Disagree          Strongly
historically if they were playing that role.        Agree                                             Disagree




14   Global Agenda Outlook 2013
Regional Organizations, Conflict                Javier Solana: I quite agree with you. The
Resolution and Weak Signals                     world has changed and this is a reality
                                                that we have to take into consideration,
Ian Bremmer: All this is related to what
                                                and we’ve neglected it. I think some
leaders can actually do. You have three
                                                efforts have been made – the ASEAN
areas of the world that are going to be
                                                Regional Forum, the ARF, is better today
experiencing very significant geopolitical
                                                than it used to be and they have some
conflict, but only one of them has
                                                useful discussions. We really have to
institutions which I believe are up to the
                                                construct strategic trust. And with a big,
task – though those institutions need to
                                                emerging country like China, that is not
change – and that’s Europe. Are the
                                                easy. China wants bilateral relations, and
institutions up to the task in the Middle
                                                it’s not going to be easily changed from
East? No. Then you go to Asia where not
                                                that approach.
only are the regional institutions not
strong enough, but the interests of the                                                      China is not a global or even
                                                Ian Bremmer: And we haven’t even talked
actors are fundamentally different. The
US wants to work in multilateral
                                                about cyber. What’s the likelihood that a    much of a regional military
                                                major cyberattack could really disrupt a     threat; it is an enormous
institutions with its friends – let’s get
                                                small economy or medium-sized
ASEAN together and take a view. The
                                                economy? I think we are all worried that
                                                                                             challenge from an economic
Japanese say, “We’ve got problems in the
                                                that’s out there – and we don’t know how     perspective. And that is not
East China Sea, let’s go to the                                                              the way it is being addressed.
                                                to assess it. What is the possibility that
International Court of Justice”. Meanwhile,
                                                China will have a WikiLeaks scandal of its
the Chinese only want bilateral
                                                own, and that you’ll have hundreds of
negotiations because they are bigger than
                                                thousands of documents that could            Ian Bremmer
every other country bilaterally and they
                                                cause an enormous crackdown and
get the outcomes they want. You’ve got a
                                                militarization of the Chinese government?
radically changing geopolitical
                                                The potential for such black swans in        Insights revealed during a session on
environment in Asia, and I think that the
                                                2013 is probably greater than before.        regional hotspots during the Summit
single conflict that is most problematic for
2013 in the world is probably that                                                           on the Global Agenda 2012:3
between China and Japan.                                                                     - International regimes and institutions
                                                                                               put in place in the last century have
                                                                                               become dated and need to evolve to
                                                                                               adapt to a new reality. History shows
Do you think that political stability will increase or decrease in your region?                that points of such disconnect
                                                                                               between global institutions and power
                                                                                               realities can lead to large-scale conflict.
                                                                                             - An inability to redress the disparity
                                                                                               between rich and poor, to improve the
                                                                                               lives of the “bottom billion”, will be a
                                                                                               source of conflict in many regions of
                                                                                               the world.
                                                                                             - Youth unemployment in the Arab world
                                                                                               is unravelling social cohesion and
                                                                                               eroding social peace.
                                                                                             - The new Millennium Development
                                                                                               Goals must take into account the
                                                                                               impact of peace and good governance
                                                                                               on nations’ sustainable development.
                                                                                             For more information on the Summit,
                                                                                             please visit www.weforum.org/events/
                                                                                             summit-global-agenda-2012




                                                                                             3
                                                                                               The Global Agenda Councils on Geopolitical Risk, Fragile
                                                                                             States, Institutional Governance Systems, and Catastrophic
                                                                                             Risks, among other Councils, contributed to the discussions in
                                                                                             this session. More information on the Network of Global Agenda
                                                                                             Councils can be found at: http://www.weforum.org/
                                                                                             global-agenda-councils-experience-2012.


                                                                                                                        Global Agenda Outlook 2013       15
Thriving in a
Hyperconnected World

The boundaries of physical                      Q: What does it mean to be living in a        Robert Madelin: For me hyperconnectivity
                                                hyperconnected world?                         is very much like the human brain. Our
and digital worlds are melting                                                                conscious activity is a tiny tip of the
at unprecedented speeds,                        Marc Davis: We are in a position today
                                                where we have much more power and
                                                                                              iceberg of what’s going on in our head,
                                                                                              we don’t know everything that’s going on
leaving many of our                             greater storage, so the amount of data        every moment, we don’t have to think to
                                                has gone up. Different sources and kinds      breathe. And our vision of the
policy-makers, heads of                         of data, from social networking sites and     hyperconnected world should be like that:
government and business                         mobile communications for example,            that we are still in control, but good things
                                                mean that we have very intimate               are going on as a result of
people unprepared to                            information about people, which provides      hyperconnectivity.
integrate new concepts into                     insights that help us to function better in
                                                the real world. Big data is not just a
decision-making processes.                      technical issue; it’s not even
Technologies have evolved                       fundamentally a technological issue. It’s a
                                                question of the structure of the digital
and continue to do so, while                    society and digital economy, what it
vast amounts of data are sent                   means to be a person, who has what
                                                rights to see and use what information,
and received by billions of                     and for what purposes might they use it.
interconnected devices. As
interdependency grows                           Do you agree that there are significant        Do you agree that the creation of a data
                                                risks associated with the creation of a       commons would contribute to economic
between individuals and the                     data commons?                                 growth worldwide?
systems they are a part of,                          Strongly Agree       9%                                    28%
what are the issues and                              Agree
                                                     Disagree
                                                                         51%
                                                                         36%
                                                                                                                58%
                                                                                                                13%
                                                                                                                 1%
opportunities to be grasped?                         Strongly Disagree    4%




The Outlook on the Global Agenda brought                                 60%                                    86%
                                                                         Agree                                  Agree
together Robert Madelin (left), Director-Gen-
eral for Communications Networks, Content
and Technology, European Commission, and
Marc Davis (middle), Partner Architect,
Microsoft Online Services Division. Rod
Beckstrom, President, Rod Beckstrom
Group, and CEO and President of ICANN
(2009- 2012), moderated the discussion.




16   Global Agenda Outlook 2013
Q: What rights should citizens of the world     Q: How can we create greater                    Q: What is the role of trust in the
have over their data?                           standardization of privacy practices?           hyperconnected world?

Robert Madelin: In a democratic society         Marc Davis: The challenges of                   Marc Davis: Without trust there isn’t going
we should collectively decide how we            hyperconnectivity also contain within           to be an effective society or economy. But
want to manage data. As an individual, I        them the solutions. The fact that we’re so      trust has to be earned, and that comes
would like to know how data about me is         connected enables us to create greater          when you are transparent so that
being created. I want to know that I am in      standardization around the rights               individuals understand what’s going on,
a society where the ways in which the           associated with data. We’re beginning to        and data actors become accountable.
feed from the CCTV camera in the                see granular permissions control, where
shopping mall is used sits within a             you can opt to say “yes, you can have my        Commercially speaking, trusted
framework of law. I do not want a               location data”. Also, across multiple           relationships powered by personal data
company or government putting all my            companies and, in the US, the National          are much more effective than the situation
data together and creating a profile of me      Strategy for Trusted Identities in              we have now where there is a lack of trust
without me knowing or being able to             Cyberspace, there is this concept of a          in the system. In a trusted relationship
access it. But if you anonymize it, most        trust framework where multi-level parties       people can say, “I do want to share this
people would say, “I am perfectly happy         together establish codes of conduct,            information because I’m going to get a
that my share of a bigger dataset creates       standards around how they are going to          much better service back”. I think there is
a public good”. A cancer registry is a          be using data.                                  a common vision around the individual at
classic case. You take all the people                                                           the centre of the digital alliance that both
suffering from a certain sort of cancer and     Robert Madelin: We can’t fix this debate        benefits society and drives economic
put that data together, that’s gold dust in     in different ways in different bits of the      growth.
terms of driving medical research. But          world without diminishing the potential
those individuals do not want their status      value of the hyperconnected world; you          Robert Madelin: At the moment, “earning
to become public knowledge. So it is a          can’t hyperconnect the world                    of trust” as a priority is not yet clear
question of how we reconcile the                technologically and divide it by imagining      enough in the minds of all data actors. If
accumulation of knowledge with the              jurisdictional borders – and there is           we lose sight of the individual, we’ll trip
preservation of my control of my personal       support in Europe for a framework that          over the individual’s objections
profile.                                        has interoperable global jurisdictional         somewhere down the road. We can avoid
                                                coverage. The big problem we still have is      that – and the need for excessive
Marc Davis: There are some cases when           a lack of trust driving demand for              regulation – if we talk to people and find
data is mine, and some cases where, for         disproportionate control.                       out what they like and don’t like.
the public good, the data is ours
collectively. But the vast majority is in the
category of joint rights and joint
stakeholders. We haven’t yet formalized
                                                How likely is it that more regulation of the Internet would hinder its future innovation
and created the legal, technical,               and development?*
economic or regulatory structures to
                                                    Very Likely        8%                     11%                            18%
determine how various parties share and             Likely            30%                     39%                            18%
control the flow of data. One analogy               Somewhat Likely
                                                    Unlikely
                                                                      35%
                                                                      22%
                                                                      22%
                                                                                              27%
                                                                                              22%
                                                                                              22%
                                                                                                                             25%
                                                                                                                             36%
                                                                                                                             36%
– which illustrates why this is both an             Very Unlikely      5%                      1%                             3%

economic and a societal issue – is of the
                                                                                                                               Latin
19th-century transportation system: if we                                Asia                  Europe
                                                                                                                              America
don’t have interoperability of rail gauges,
it’s hard to have trains that work.

                                                                       10%                    19%                            12%
                                                                       33%                    32%                            37%
                                                                       43%                    31%                            27%
                                                                       14%
                                                                       14%                    16%
                                                                                              16%                            24%
                                                                                                                             24%
                                                                        0%                     2%                             0%


                                                                      Middle East/              North                       Sub-Saharan
                                                                      North Africa             America                         Africa




                                                                                                    *We grouped respondents according to their regions




      Today’s leaders have been
       trained in a world that no
                    longer exists.

                                 Marc Davis

                                                                                                                        Global Agenda Outlook 2013   17
Q: Can the hyperconnected world make              Robert Madelin: The threats of the            Insights revealed during discussions
cities more efficient, sustainable and            cyberworld are understood by experts,         on hyperconnectivity during the
liveable?                                         but they are not owned at the top level by    Summit on the Global Agenda 2012:4
                                                  boards of large corporations or by
Marc Davis: Absolutely. Big data, the             governments in a collective way. So I think   - Hyperconnectivity challenges
observation of how the world behaves –            we are seriously underweight in our             incumbent power structures in
people, goods, services – allow us to             collective response to this threat. And I       unprecedented ways, exposing
improve the way we organize ourselves.            think in a hyperconnected world, we have        vulnerabilities of power.
Of course, we have to do it in a way that         to connect the overlapping issues that        - Although the digital era has vastly
preserves the dignity, agency and                 form part of the complex system that we         increased the number of connections
self-determination of individuals.                human beings constitute. We don’t really        (human and virtual), this has not
                                                  acknowledge that complexity.                    necessarily been coupled with
Robert Madelin: The smart city is smart                                                           increased cohesion – divisions and
because we can build hyperconnectivity                                                            fragmentations remain.
into the energy and transport systems,            Who should be responsible for Internet
                                                  governance?                                   - Acknowledging that the world is now a
but it will be smarter if we can create a                                                         socio-technical system requires
city that is, through data, more effective                            Academia       3%           integrating the digital code of technical
for every citizen, more inclusive. The               International Organizations    31%
                                                                                                  systems into the legal code of social
                                                                                    32%
diversity of opportunity in a big city,                             Government
                                                                       Business
                                                                       Business
                                                                            n       19%           systems.
whether it’s Cairo or Los Angeles, is so                               il Society
                                                         NGOs and Civil Societ
                                                                             iety   15%
                                                                                    15

huge that we have to be careful that the                                                        For more information on the Summit,
                                                                                                please visit www.weforum.org/events/
smartness is not unevenly distributed. If
the hyperconnected world accentuated
                                                                                    32%         summit-global-agenda-2012
                                                                               Government
social divides, it could get very “unsmart”
very quickly. So, there is a downside, and
we have to design it out.

Q: What are the shocks, related to
hyperconnectivity, which might be
coming in 2013?

Marc Davis: There will be greater
realization by people around the world of
what’s actually happening on the Internet
in terms of the complexities of managing
big data. I think the shock of this will result
in people calling for, and regulators and
industry working together for, greater
transparency and accountability with
regards to data.

Robert Madelin: The greatest risks would
be a technical outage where cyber
resilience is lost, or a big data breach
causing a breakdown of public trust in the        Digital rights are about how
ability of the data actors and public             we reconcile the accumulation
authorities to manage data in the future.         of knowledge with the
Q: What issues should be priority for
                                                  preservation of control over
world leaders in Davos?                           our private lives.

Marc Davis: Other than cyber resilience,
which is a fundamental part of the                Robert Madelin
ecosystem for every state and the private
sector, I also think people have to realize
that human beings are very bad at
understanding the phenomena that are
transforming our world. Leaders today
have been trained in a world that no
longer exists. Acknowledging this is the
first step, and the next is working
collectively to form a new organizational
structure that is resilient, adaptive and
supports the goals that we all share.                                                           4
                                                                                                  The Global Agenda Councils on Data Driven Development,
                                                                                                Complex Systems, Design & Innovation, the Future of the
                                                                                                Internet, and Urbanization, among other Councils, contributed to
                                                                                                the discussions in this session. More information on the Network
                                                                                                of Global Agenda Councils can be found at: http://www.
                                                                                                weforum.org/global-agenda-councils-experience-2012.


18   Global Agenda Outlook 2013
The Post-2015
Development Agenda

The Millennium Development                 John McArthur: Since the Millennium              And even if all countries eliminate extreme
                                           Development Goals were formulated, we            poverty below a dollar a day, there are still a
Goals (MDGs) have been the                 have had a pretty historic global                couple of billion people living on less than
central reference point for                conversation about how developed and             US$ 2 a day. Third, what are the issues that
                                           developing countries can partner to achieve      didn’t get addressed in the Millennium
global development efforts                 an ambitious agenda – to eliminate extreme       Development Goals? How, for example, do
since they were established                poverty from the planet, and at least halve it   we tackle the environmental underpinnings
as international targets in                by 2015. We’ve seen a few areas that have        of development? Fourth, what are the issues
                                           really taken off. We’ve seen issues of disease   around inequality? It’s not just about what it
2000. But the MDGs only                    control – including HIV/AIDS, malaria and        looks like to end extreme poverty, but what it
mark a half-way point.                     immunizations for children – really making       means to have a sustainable global society.
                                           breakthroughs. In recent years maternal
Interest in the next stage of              health has also made progress and we’ve          A shift to looking at the environmental
this process is expanding                  seen a lot of success in primary education.      challenges will need to keep in mind that even
well beyond the traditional                In some areas we haven’t seen much
                                                                                            the term “sustainable development goals”
                                                                                            can be very loaded politically. The words
boundaries of the                          success. In hunger, we’re still struggling.      actually mean different things in different parts
development community. As                  On the environment, the Millennium               of the world, yet what we’re trying to do is
                                           Development Goals actually had a pretty          converge on a common agenda and vision.
discussion of a post-2015                  narrow definition and these issues have
development agenda begins                  not been so well addressed.                      We know that many of the poorest people
in earnest, tensions between                                                                face major environmental strains, and that
                                           Do you agree that the post-2015                  one way to help them with that is to raise
economic development and                   development agenda will result in a              incomes. As Norman Borlaug used to say:
environmental considerations               stronger development framework?                  “It’s hard to be an environmentalist on an
                                                                                            empty stomach.” When countries go from
remain a threat to progress.                                                                extreme poverty to above a dollar a day
What are the implications of                                                                poverty, that’s not usually where the bigger
                                                                                            global environmental challenge comes in
trying to articulate a                                                                      – it’s at the stage of industrialization.
sustainable development
agenda for the future?
The Outlook on the Global Agenda
brought together John McArthur, Senior          23%       63%      13%         1%
Fellow, United Nations Foundation, New        Strongly    Agree    Disagree   Strongly
                                               Agree                          Disagree
York, and Wu Changhua, Director, Greater
China, Climate Group, People’s Republic
of China. James Bacchus, Honorary
Professor of Law, University of            As we look at the final 1,000 days to 2015,
International Business and Economics,      there are a few basic questions. One is how
People’s Republic of China, moderated      do we make sure that this last stretch goes
                                           as well as possible – how do we make sure        Even if all countries eliminate
the discussion.
                                           we really maintain the momentum around           extreme poverty below a
                                           doable propositions such as eliminating          US$ 1 a day, there are still
                                           mother-to-child transmission of HIV and          couple of billion people living
                                           ending deaths from malaria? Second, while
                                           the world has already achieved the first         on less than US$ 2 a day.
                                           Millennium Development Goal of cutting
                                           income poverty by half, how do we finish the
                                           job and end extreme poverty altogether?          John McArthur

                                                                                                                 Global Agenda Outlook 2013   19
I am an economist who is pro-growth and in         sake of the environment, for others, or even
favour of equal opportunity to lifestyles. I       just to pay more, you start to see a really
don’t think anyone has the right to tell           significant drop in commitment.
anyone else, at this stage of global inequality,
that they should stop growing. I’m for better      On a different scale, I was attending a
growth, derived from new ideas and new             seminar and the CEO of a European
efficiencies. Ultimately we will only solve the    company was talking about sustainable
problem through innovation, so we need to          development and what the company has
think about how to develop better incentives       done to reduce its ecological footprint. After
for that – which raises the role of government     he finished and went out, I saw the CEO of
investment and regulation.                         a major chemical company in Taiwan
                                                   shaking his head. When I approached him,
For anyone in office over the next few years,      he said, “Sustainability is not multinational
whether it’s a political, corporate or NGO         companies getting rid of or selling the
office, this is a time to keep our eye on the      things they don’t want any more”. And he’s         If you look at the West, in the
ball – so as to deliver results by 2015. If we     right. Where do these things go? In many           current economic situation, if
do so, we could even provide a springboard         cases, heavy manufacturing simply ends             you do not have or promise
for tackling the next generation’s challenges.     up in China and the footprint is shifted to        growth, you cannot be
                                                   somewhere else.
                                                                                                      elected.
Wu Changhua: By putting “sustainable” in
front of development issues we have shown          Unfortunately, we are materialistic and we
that we understand them better, and that we        consume a lot of things – and someone has
understand the linkages between many               to make them. If we do not address that fact       Wu Changhua
issues. This also presents challenges, as the      – if we do not integrate it with a move to
international community tries to figure out        innovation and new technology in a timely
what are the best tools, instruments and           manner – we will not solve the problem.            Insights revealed by discussions on
partnerships to address solutions with the                                                            the post-2015 development agenda
limited resources at hand. Meanwhile, from         I don’t think that change comes naturally. A       during the Summit on the Global
the perspective of the health of the global        company needs to make money, so it goes            Agenda 2012:5
ecosystem, we are not making progress.             for the low-hanging fruit. That’s why this
                                                                                                      - The process led by the UN is very
We are actually moving backwards.                  requires government to set regulation
                                                                                                        complex. Unlike with the first
                                                   standards and to add a costing issue – if
                                                                                                        generation of MDGs, considerable
Do you agree that human development is
                                                   you don’t do this, it costs you more.
                                                                                                        efforts are made to reach out to, and
becoming more ecologically sustainable?            Business people get that.
                                                                                                        gather input from, all stakeholders via
                                                                                                        hundreds of global, regional and
                                                   That’s also why I think it’s encouraging that
                                                                                                        topical consultations.
                                                   in China the direction for the next 10 years in
                                                   terms of development has been clearly set          - A major challenge is the so-called
                                                   out. What’s exciting to see in the documents         “Christmas tree syndrome”, which
                                                   released by the Party Congress, for                  refers to the tendency for different
                                                   example, is the use of the term “eco-                stakeholders to “hang” their own goal
                                                   civilization”. This is being raised to the           or cause on the MDG tree. In particular,
                                                   national agenda, alongside the political,            many want the future framework to
                                                   economic, social and cultural. There are the         include some critical drivers of poverty
                                                   beginnings of an understanding that, in              alleviation such as governance,
        4%        40%        47%        9%
                                                   order to move forward, China cannot say, “I’ll       security, infrastructure, migration and
      Strongly    Agree     Disagree   Strongly
       Agree                           Disagree    just do this on my own”. I’m hoping that             human rights.
                                                   China’s new generation of leaders will go to       - This inclusiveness imperative and the
If you look at the West, in the current            Davos and reach out proactively to other             multiplicity of actors pose significant
economic situation, if you do not have or          leaders – not just political leaders – to try to     challenges. In particular, the integration
promise growth you cannot be elected. Yet          figure out how we can achieve a sustainable          of sustainability in the new framework
everyone knows all the data telling us we          development agenda together.                         reveals uncertainties. There is no clear
do not have enough natural resources, that                                                              idea or process within the UN system
the ecosystem cannot accommodate the               Do you agree that business has a                     for how the various MDG and
growth goals being pursued by every                responsibility to address societal                   Sustainable Development Goals
country. How we solve that remains a big           problems, even if it impacts profitability?           processes and outcomes could be
question.                                                                                               combined.
                                                                                                      For more information on the Summit,
I have friends in Beijing who tell me that
                                                                                                      please visit www.weforum.org/events/
they have three cars. Why? Well, firstly, they
                                                                                                      summit-global-agenda-2012
are rich enough. Secondly because, there
are laws saying you can only drive a certain
car on a certain number of days. You need
to go to work every day, so what do you                                                               5
                                                                                                        The Global Agenda Councils on Food Security, Poverty &
do? Among young people today,                                                                         Sustainable Development, Climate Change, and Africa, among
                                                                                                      other Councils, contributed to the discussions in this session.
awareness is very high. But if we ask                    48%       44%        7%         1%           More information on the Network of Global Agenda Councils can
someone to give up certain things for the              Strongly    Agree     Disagree   Strongly      be found at: http://www.weforum.org/global-agenda-councils-
                                                                                                      experience-2012.
                                                        Agree                           Disagree


20   Global Agenda Outlook 2013
Restoring Values



The mistrust in governments                Michael Elliott: The question of how we          I remain resolutely optimistic. Although
                                           connect business to the common good              leadership has been lacking in the past
and institutions is growing,               has come into sharp focus since 2008.            five or six years, some of the values-
as today’s economic and                    We saw the financial sector go into a sort
                                           of greed-induced meltdown; we saw
                                                                                            based choices we have made have been
                                                                                            extraordinary. We chose to attack some
political systems struggle to              governments that seemed incapable of             salient global health issues, and we can
                                           tackling major problems. In the West, we         now legitimately say that we can look
come to terms with the                     are seeing levels of inequality that those of    forward to the end of HIV/AIDS, that we
complexities and                           us who grew up in the period after World         can end mother-to-child transmission of
                                           War II find almost incomprehensible. We          HIV/AIDS within a few years. We’ve
interdependencies of the                   all lose from that. And while free and open      reduced death by malaria to an
21st century. Is it time to                markets have demonstrated themselves             extraordinary extent. I take away from that
                                           as being a great source of prosperity,           the conclusion that we can make more of
revisit the core values of                 happiness and the realization of human           the same values-based choices.
business, politics and                     potential, there’s a real problem in the
                                           extent to which inequalities are
society? Would leadership                  perpetuated generation to generation.
and decision-making benefit                Policy choices that we have made have
                                           allowed that to happen.
from a reassessment of
values?                                    It’s not easy, but bringing together all
                                           sectors of society and finding common
The Outlook on the Global Agenda           ground – persuading people to change
brought together Chan YuenYing, Director   the way they look at the world – remains
and Professor, Journalism and Media        worth doing. That truth hasn’t failed
Studies Centre, Hong Kong SAR, and         simply because we live in difficult times.
Michael J. Elliott, President and Chief
Executive Officer, ONE, USA. Jim Wallis,   There has been a breakdown in trust in
President and Chief Executive Officer,     established institutions. But if we think that
Sojourners, USA, moderated the             the solution is to rebuild trust in those
discussion.                                same institutions, we may be missing the
                                           signal. Social media is creating new
                                           institutions. They may not be corporations,
                                                                                            In 2013, let’s put our shoulder
                                           they may not have an HQ, but it is possible      to the wheel on the issues
                                           that we are finding new informal                 where we still have to make
                                           institutions that enable people to do things     progress.
                                           together. People today are less influenced
                                           by me, or you, or for that matter, by
                                           famous people, than by their friends.            Michael Elliott

                                           And those friends could be from anywhere.
                                           When I first lived in the US in the mid-1970s,
                                           the foreign-born population was about 4%.
                                           Now it is 13%. That means that every
                                           network of someone in my own children’s
                                           age group includes people who were born
                                           thousands of miles away. I think there is
                                           enormous potential now to build truly global
                                           networks of interest, involvement, trust and
                                           common purpose.


                                                                                                              Global Agenda Outlook 2013   21
In leadership terms, this will require                 In China, you have a billion mobile phone         I would like to see two things. One is for
determination; it will require us to make              subscribers. People are using mobile              leaders to challenge themselves and their
uncommon bedfellows; it will require                   devices to get online, to organize                existing institutions: they need the will and
money. But we can do it. Take nutrition:               demonstrations, to express the                    wisdom to make a break with old ways of
we can make choices in policy, food                    disaffection they were deprived of                doing things. The second is a kind of
production and agricultural investment                 expressing before. How do people in               back to basics. You talk about the
that bring nutritious foods to everyone in             business and government aggregate                 common good – what is it? Be kind, say
those crucial first 1,000 days of their life.          this? Where is the facility to monitor and        thank you, be grateful, take care of the
One crucial area where we can ensure                   to access opinion that’s expressed                weak. Those are basic values that we
and demand leadership is with the                      online? We are far behind in these tasks.         learn in kindergarten, but somehow they
Millennium Development Goals. We’ve                                                                      have been lost because of greed and the
got 1,000 days to go before the deadline.              Leadership and vision are lacking. With           drive for excellence. There needs to be a
So let’s put our shoulder to the wheel on              HIV/AIDS, people consciously decided              willingness among leaders and business
the issues where we still have to make                 that we needed to tackle the problem              leaders to recognize those values once
progress, whether that be sanitation,                  – so resources were harnessed,                    again.
water or maternal mortality, while at the              decisions were made. Public-private
same time thinking about what comes                    partnerships worked. Now, those
next.                                                  partnerships need to multiply.
                                                       Government, business or civil society             What do stakeholders think about how
Chan YuenYing: We used to think that we                – we all have a stake.                            capitalism will be perceived in 5 years’ time?
knew what is good and what is bad. I am                                                                      non-business
                                                                                                             business
not sure we have that common                           We also need new economic thinking.
understanding anymore, and one result                  The free market, we have learned, is not
– at the heart of many of the challenges               exactly free. It creates problems even as
facing the world – has been a loss of                  it claims to solve them. But has liberal
common trust in institutions. I see it in              capitalism run its course? What would
Hong Kong, China and the US. How do                    come after it? Socialism as it has been
you rebuild the trust? How do you                      practised is not the solution: we’ve seen
renegotiate that common ground? You                    that in China. During the 2012 leadership
have to go back to the issue of values.                transition, the term “socialism with
                                                       Chinese characteristics” was cited 81                22%     7%      30%   12%       18%   11%

Today, a person’s social media network is              times in the outgoing president’s report.              negative         neutral        positive

their network of trust, but social media               He was saying: “Look, the China model
has also disrupted traditional institutions. I         has worked. China has lifted 600 million
am optimistic about the technology, but                out of poverty and we have economic
our ability to harness its potential is falling        development without democracy”. I
behind, and in many ways we are being                  disagree, because that development is
led by technology. If we are not building              unsustainable – it has caused
the culture and institutions that can                  environmental degradation and a
connect the virtual and the real worlds,               growing gap between rich and poor.
you have another disconnect. People are                What we’re looking for is a higher level of
making noise on the Internet, adding their             economic thinking, and I think that needs
grievances and hopes, but if those hopes               resources invested in it.
cannot be realized in the real world, you
only create greater frustration.



What do different regions think about how capitalism will be perceived                        Positive
                                                                                              Neutral
in 5 years’ time?                                                                             Negative


               Asia                            Europe                       Latin America


                                                                           1%
     7%        10%         5%      11%            13%         6%                  2% 2%                  I would like to see leaders
                                                                                                         challenge themselves and
                                                                                                         their existing institutions. They
                                                                                                         need the will and wisdom to
                                                                                                         make a break with old ways.
     Middle East/North Africa          North America                         Sub-Saharan Africa


     1%               1%                                                                    1%
                                  7%        12%           14%
                                                                                                         Chan YuenYing
             2%                                                              3%     2%




22   Global Agenda Outlook 2013
How the 2012 Elections May Have                                                                                             Insights revealed during discussions
Changed US Politics                                                                                                         on values during the Summit on the
                                                                                                                            Global Agenda 2012:6
Jim Wallis: What really happened in the                                                                                     - The “invisible hand” is an amazing
2012 election was that a demographic                                                                                          phenomenon for allocating resources,
time bomb went off. It is clear now that if                                                                                   but without a moral framework that
all you have is white votes, you will never                                                                                   supports trust, the market cannot
win another US election. And that could                                                                                       function.
change our whole notion of politics in the
                                                                                                                            - A functioning global governance
US.
                                                                                                                              system will not be possible as long as a
                                                              Jim Wallis                                                      global moral underpinning is lacking.
This is not about Democrats and
Republicans – both parties are run by                                                                                       - Religion should not have a monopoly
liberal elites and, after elections, their lives                                                                              on morality. New institutions need to
don’t change much. But, finally, a lot of                                                                                     be aligned with a reinvigorated set of
people are adopting a post-party                                                                                              values that are inclusive of all
approach to politics – they are looking at                                                                                    stakeholders, including those with little
how real issues affect real people. So, in                                                                                    voice.
future, both parties will have to compete                                                                                   - Values that hold “the common good”
for the values of diverse populations, and                                                                                    as a critical metric should be aimed for
that might hold them accountable. The                                                                                         along with decision-making based on
biggest obstacle to this, though, is the                                                                                      how future generations will be
power of money over politics, which is                                                                                        impacted. An example is moving from
stronger than ever. We need to take the                                                                                       “resource exploitation” to “resource
money out and put the values back in.                                                                                         stewardship” as a guiding principle for
                                                                                                                              all consumers, not just companies.
                                                                                                                            - Regulation and incentives are
Do you expect that the following issues will worsen or improve as a result of the                                             necessary but not sufficient to a
US election outcome?*                                                                                                         healthy, functioning, market-based
                                                                                                                              society. Values need to be more than
               China       State of US      State of global      Regional            Global   Global financial                 theoretical – they are only valuable if
             relations      economy           economy            security          governance     system
                                                                                                                              they drive behaviour – hence they need
improve    Sub-Saharan      Sub-Saharan
                                            North America       Latin America     Sub-Saharan          Sub-Saharan            to be deeply embedded.
              Africa           Africa                                                Africa               Africa
                                                                                                                            - Role models are needed – leadership
                                                                                                       Middle East/
                           North America                          Europe
                                                                                                       North Africa           is critical to demonstrating values and
                                                               North America                                                  ethical action.
           North America    Latin America                                                             North America
                                                                                                                            For more information on the Summit,
                                               Europe           Sub-Saharan                                                 please visit www.weforum.org/events/
                                                                                                       Latin America
              Europe
                                             Latin America         Africa                                                   summit-global-agenda-2012
 neutral   Latin America
                                                                                         3
           Middle East/
            North Africa
                              Europe                               Asia           Latin America            Europe


                                                 Asia                                Europe


                               Asia          Sub-Saharan                           North America
                                                Africa

                                                                                   Middle East/
worsen         Asia        Middle East/       Middle East/      Middle East/           2
                                                                                   North Africa
                           North Africa       North Africa                                                 Asia
                                                                North Africa
                                                                                        Asia


                                                                  *Differences in responses between regions are relative.




                                                                                                                            6
                                                                                                                              The Global Agenda Councils on New Models of Leadership,
                                                                                                                            Values, Informed Society, and the Role of Faith, among other
                                                                                                                            Councils, contributed to the discussions in this session. More
                                                                                                                            information on the Network of Global Agenda Councils can be
                                                                                                                            found at: http://www.weforum.org/global-agenda-councils-
                                                                                                                            experience-2012.


                                                                                                                                                       Global Agenda Outlook 2013            23
                                                                                  Stakeholder representation of the
                                                                                  Global Agenda Council network




                                                                                             Business                     33%
                                                                                             Universities & Think Tank    29%
                                                                                             Civil Society & Other        12%
                                                                                             Government                   11%
                                                                                             International Organization    9%
                                                                                             NGO                           6%




                                                                                  Regional representation of the Global
                                                                                  Agenda Council network




About the Network                 In 2008 the World Economic Forum
                                  created the Network of Global Agenda
of Global Agenda                  Councils, a unique network of more than
                                  1,500 of the world’s most relevant experts                 North America                33%


Councils
                                                                                             Europe                       30%
                                  from academia, business, civil society,                    Asia                         23%
                                  government and international                               Latin America                 6%
                                                                                             Sub-Sahara Africa             5%
                                  organizations, for the purpose of                          Middle East/ North Africa     3%

                                  advancing knowledge and collaboratively
                                  exploring important issues shaping the
                                  global, industry and regional agendas.

                                  Each Global Agenda Council features
                                  15-20 of the most relevant thought
                                  leaders in an effort to challenge
                                  conventional thinking, develop pertinent
                                  insights and create innovative solutions
                                  for key global challenges. In a global
                                  environment marked by short-term
                                  orientation and silo thinking, the Network
                                  of Global Agenda Councils fosters
                                  interdisciplinary and long-term thinking
                                  about the prevailing challenges on the
                                  global agenda.

                                  Global Agenda Council Members meet
                                  annually at the Summit on the Global
                                  Agenda, held in partnership with the
                                  Government of the United Arab Emirates,
                                  and interact virtually several times a year
                                  to monitor key trends, identify global risks,
                                  discuss breakthrough ideas and explore
                                  relevant interconnections. The year 2012
                                  marked the fifth anniversary of the annual
                                  Summit on the Global Agenda. With over
                                  900 participants from more than 80
                                  countries, the Summit on the Global
                                  Agenda is the world’s largest
                                  brainstorming event.




24   Global Agenda Outlook 2013
The Global Agenda Survey
                                               Stakeholder representation of respondents.

The Global Agenda Survey is conducted
annually and asks the Members of the
Global Agenda Councils as well as
leading industry experts, to identify the
most important global trends and the
consequences that are likely to impact
the world economy, society and
environment in the next 12-18 months.
                                                          University & Think Tank      34%
These results were then updated and                       Business
                                                          Civil Society & Other
                                                                                       30%
                                                                                       11%
validated with new data gathered from                     Government                   10%
                                                          International Organization    9%
Global Agenda Council Members at the                      NGO                           6%
Summit on the Global Agenda 2012.The
combined survey results include 1500
responses worldwide, comprising diverse
views, expertise and regional
representation.                                Regional representation of respondents

This year’s survey generated interesting
findings from time-series analysis and
comparisons of data broken down by
stakeholder type and region. Overall, the
evolution of old trends and the
emergence of new ones give rise to some
important insights, which are included in
this report.
                                                           North America                 34%
                                                           Europe                        31%
The core of the Global Agenda Outlook is                   Asia                          22%
based on a series of discussions and                       Sub-Sahara Africa              5%
                                                           Latin America                  5%
debates between Global Agenda Council                      Middle East/ North Africa      3%
Members – representative of the relevant
fields and drawn from diverse regions –
that were recorded live during the
November 2012 Summit on the Global
Agenda in Dubai. Each intimate
conversation was structured around an
issue identified as one of the most
important global trends, as per the Global
Agenda Survey 2012. Participants were
encouraged to be bold and to convey to
readers what is at the forefront of their
minds, with the results providing an
outline of many of the major issues and
opportunities facing the world in 2013.

An interactive visualization showing the
results of the Global Agenda Survey can
be viewed in full at http://reports.weforum.
org/global-agenda-survey-2012/.




                                                                                               Global Agenda Outlook 2013   25
Portfolio of Councils
2012-2014 Term



Issue-focused                             Geopolitics &Security                  Society & Human Capital

Economics & Finance                       31. Anti-Corruption                    57.   Ageing
                                          32. Arctic*                            58.   Education & Skills
1.    Competitiveness                     33. Conflict Prevention                59.   Future of Government
2.    Emerging Multinationals             34. Energy Security                    60.   Future of Media
3.    Employment                          35. Fragile States                     61.   Future of Universities*
4.    Financing & Capital*                36. Geopolitical Risk                  62.   Informed Societies
5.    Fiscal Sustainability               37. Human Rights                       63.   Migration
6.    Global Financial System             38. Illicit Trade                      64.   New Models of Leadership
7.    Global Trade System                 39. Institutional Governance Systems   65.   Personalized & Precision Medicine
8.    Infrastructure*                     40. Nuclear, Biological & Chemical     66.   Population Growth
9.    International Monetary System           Weapons                            67.   Role of Business
10.   Logistics & Supply Chain Systems    41. Organized Crime                    68.   Role of Civil Society*
11.   Long-Term Investing                 42. Rule of Law                        69.   Role of Faith*
12.   New Growth Models*                  43. Terrorism                          70.   Role of the Arts in Society*
13.   New Models for Travel & Tourism                                            71.   Social Innovation
14.   New Economic Thinking*              Science & Technology                   72.   Social Media
15.   Poverty & Sustainable Development                                          73.   Values
16.   Social Security Systems*            44.   Advanced Manufacturing
                                                                                 74.   Well-being & Mental Health
17.   Youth Unemployment                  45.   Biotechnology*
                                                                                 75.   Women’s Empowerment
                                          46.   Complex Systems*
Environment & Sustainability              47.   Data-Driven Development*
                                          48.   Design & Innovation              Region-focused
18.   Biodiversity & Natural Capital*     49.   Digital Health
19.   Catastrophic Risks                                                         76.   Africa
                                          50.   Emerging Technologies
20.   Climate Change                                                             77.   Arab World
                                          51.   Fostering Entrepreneurship
21.   Food Security                                                              78.   China
                                          52.   Future of the Internet
22.   Governance for Sustainability*                                             79.   Europe
                                          53.   Intellectual Property System
23.   Measuring Sustainability*                                                  80.   India
                                          54.   Neuroscience & Behaviour
24.   New Energy Architecture                                                    81.   Japan
                                          55.   Robotics & Smart Devices
25.   Oceans                                                                     82.   Korea
                                          56.   Space Security
26.   Personal Transportation Systems                                            83.   Latin America
27.   Responsible Mineral Resources                                              84.   Pakistan
                                                                                 85.   Russia*
Management                                                                       86.   South-East Asia
                                                                                 87.   Ukraine*
28. Sustainable Consumption                                                      88.   United States
29. Urbanization
30. Water Security                                                               *New Council in 2012




26    Global Agenda Outlook 2013
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