Credit Suisse - Technical Analysis - Explained

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                                                                                 Global Technical Research and Behavioral Finance




Technical Analysis - Explained
Private Banking


                                                                       Patterns
                                                                      (Elliott waves)



                                          Momentum
                                         (Rates-of-change)


                        Trend
                 (Moving averages)                                    Greed

                                                                 Euphoria
                                                                                          Denial
                                                              Conviction
                                                                                                Pessimism
                                                           Confidence
                                                                                                       Fear
                                                         Optimism
                                                                                                            Despondency
                                                       Hope

                                                Relief                                                             Panic
                                      Caution




Important disclosures are found in the Disclosure appendix
Credit S uisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be
aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this
report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For a discussion of the risks of investing in the securities
mentioned in this report, please refer to the following Internet link: https://research.credit-suisse.com/riskdisclosure
                                                                                              Technical Analysis - Explained




                                       Contents
                  What is technical analysis? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
                  Technical analysis pre-empts fundamental data . . . . . . . 4
                  Mood governs ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
                  Optimism, pessimism, greed and fear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
                  Chart types and chart construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
                  Support and resistance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
                  Trendlines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . 9
                  Investment horizons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
                  What trend? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
                  Moving averages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
                  The simple moving average . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
                  Long-, medium- and short-term averages . . . . . . . . . . . 14
                  Moving average crossover . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
                  Momentum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
                  Momentum, indicator signals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
                  Long-, medium- and short-term indicators . . . . . . . . . . . 18
                                                                          9500
                  Trend and momentum combination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
                                                                           ...
                  Reversal and redistribution . . . . . . . . . .9000 . . . . . . . . . . . 20
                                                                          ...
                  Equity analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8500. . . . . . . . . . . 21
                  Cycle phase distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
                                                                            ..
                  The Elliott Wave Principle . . . . . . . . . . .8000. . . . . . . . . .               23
                  Catalog of impulsive waves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
                                                                           ...
                  Catalog of corrective patterns . . . . . . .7500 . . . . . . . . . . 25
                  Impulsive wave patterns, example. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
                                                                          7000
                  Corrective wave patterns, example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
                                                                           ...
                  Head and shoulder reversal pattern . . .6500 . . . . . . . . . . 28
                  Fascinating Fibonacci . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
                  Wave correlations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .           30
                                                                          6000
                  Fibonacci correlation - more than coincidence . . . . . . 31
                  Diploma in basic technical analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                     32




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                                                                              Technical Analysis - Explained




                         Price chart
                                                                                                        6500



                                                                                                        6000



                                                                                                        5500


                                                 Technical indicators                                   5000


                                                                                                         2000
                                                                                                         1500
                                                                                                         1000
                                                                                                          500
                                                                                                            0
                                                                                                         -500
                                                                                                        -1000

  May     Jun      Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov     Dec     2010      Feb     Mar      Apr




What is technical analysis?
Technical analysis is the study of financial market action. The technician looks at price changes that
occur on a day-to-day or week-to-week basis or over any other constant time period displayed in
graphic form, called charts. Hence the name chart analysis.

A chartist analyzes price charts only, while the technical analyst studies technical indicators derived
from price changes in addition to the price charts.

Technical analysts examine the price action of the financial markets instead of the fundamental fac-
tors that (seem to) effect market prices. Technicians believe that even if all relevant information of a
particular market or stock was available, you still could not predict a precise market "response" to that
information. There are so many factors interacting at any one time that it is easy for important ones
to be ignored in favor of those that are considered as the "flavor of the day."
The technical analyst believes that all the relevant market information is reflected (or discounted) in
the price with the exception of shocking news such as natural distasters or acts of God. These fac-
tors, however, are discounted very quickly.

Watching financial markets, it becomes obvious that there are trends, momentum and patterns that
repeat over time, not exactly the same way but similar. Charts are self-similar as they show the same
fractal structure (a fractal is a tiny pattern; self-similar means the overall pattern is made up of smaller
versions of the same pattern) whether in stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds. A chart is a mirror
of the mood of the crowd and not of the fundamental factors. Thus, technical analysis is the
analysis of human mass psychology. Therefore, it is also called behavioral finance.


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                                                                            Technical Analysis - Explained




                                                      A               Economic
                                                                      recession

     Economic
     recession

                                 Stock market


                            Economic growth                                    B
             B

Technical analysis pre-empts fundamental data
Fundamentalists believe there is a cause and effect between fundamental factors and price changes.
This means, if the fundamental news is positive the price should rise, and if the news is negative the
price should fall. However, long-term analyses of price changes in financial markets around the world
show that such a correlation is present only in the short-term horizon and only to a limited extent. It is
non-existent on a medium- and long-term basis.

In fact, the contrary is true. The stock market itself is the best predictor of the future fundamental
trend. Most often, prices start rising in a new bull trend while the economy is still in recession (position
B on chart shown above), i.e. while there is no cause for such an uptrend. Vice versa, prices start
falling in a new bear trend while the economy is still growing (position A), and not providing fundamen-
tal reasons to sell. There is a time-lag of several months by which the fundamental trend follows the
stock market trend. Moreover, this is not only true for the stock market and the economy, but also for
the price trends of individual equities and company earnings. Stock prices peak ahead of peak earn-
ings while bottoming ahead of peak losses.

The purpose of technical analysis is to identify trend changes that precede the fundamental
trend and do not (yet) make sense if compared to the concurrent fundamental trend.




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                                                                        Technical Analysis - Explained




      G                                                                                     F
      R                                                                                     E
      E                                                                                     A
      E                                                                                     R
      D


Mood governs ratio
Know yourself and knowledge of the stock market will soon follow. Ego and emotions determine far
more of investors´ stock market decisions than most would be willing to admit.
For years, we have dealt with professional money managers and committees and found they were as
much subject to crowd following and other irrational emotional mistakes as any novice investor. They
were, for the most part, better informed, but facts alone are not enough to make profitable deci-
                                 sions. The human element, which en-
                                 compasses a range of emotions from
                                 fear to greed, plays a much bigger role
                                 in the decision-making process than
                                 most investors realize.
                                 In a practical sense, most investors act
                                 exactly opposite to the rational wisdom
                                 of buying low and selling high based on
                                 very predictable emotional responses to
                                 rising or falling prices. Falling prices that
at first appear to be bargains generate fear of loss at much lower prices when opportunities are the
greatest. Rising prices that at first appear to be good opportunities to sell ultimately lead to greed-
induced buying at much higher levels. Reason is replaced by emotion and rationalization with such
cyclical regularity, that those who recognize the symptoms and the trend changes on the charts can
profit very well from this knowledge.
Investors who manage to act opposite to the mood of the crowd and against their own emotions are
best positioned to earn money in the financial markets. Financial risk and emotional risk correlate
inversely.

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                                                                        Technical Analysis - Explained



                     (Optimism, Greed, Euphoria)
                             Conviction

                     Confidence                            Complacency

       Price trend




                                                               Concern
                     Caution

                                                                   Capitulation
                                                             (Pessimism, Fear, Panic)


Optimism, pessimism, greed and fear
Why aren´t more people making more money in the financial markets? Because, as we have seen,
people are motivated by greed (optimism) when buying and by fear (pessimism) when selling. People
are motivated to buy and sell by changes in emotion from optimism to pessimism and vice versa.
They formulate fundamental scenarios based on their emotional state (a rationalization of the emo-
tions), which prevents them from realizing that the main drive is emotion.

The chart above shows that if investors buy based on confidence or conviction (optimism) they BUY
near or at the TOP. Likewise, if investors act on concern or capitulation (pessimism) they SELL near
or at the BOTTOM. Investors remain under the bullish impression of the recent uptrend beyond the
forming price top and during a large part of the bear trend. Vice versa, they remain pessimistic under
the bearish impression from the past downtrend through the market bottom and during a large part of
the next bull trend. They adjust their bullish fundamental scenarios to bearish AFTER having become
pessimistic under the pressure of the downtrend or AFTER having become optimistic under the pres-
sure of the uptrend. Once having turned bearish, investors formulate bearish scenarios, looking for
more weakness just when it is about time to buy again. The same occurs in an uptrend when mood
shifts from pessimism to optimism. Investors formulate bullish scenarios AFTER having turned bullish,
which is after a large part of the bull trend is already over. Emotions are the drawback of fundamental
analysis. Investors must learn to buy when they are fearful (pessimistic) and sell when they feel eu-
phoric (optimstic). This may sound easy (simple contrary opinion), but without Technical Analysis it is
hard to achieve.
The main purpose of technical analysis is to help investors identify turning points which they
cannot see because of individual and group psychological factors.



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                                                                                                                                      Technical Analysis - Explained



 Monthly OHLC                                                                                                           Weekly OHLC
                                                                                         10000                                                                              8000
                                                                                          9500
                                                                                          9000                                                                              7500

 bar chart                                                                                8500
                                                                                          8000                          bar chart                                           7000
                                                                                          7500
                                                                                                                                                                            6500
                                                                                          7000
                                                                                          6500
                                                                                                                                                                            6000
                                                                                          6000
                                                                                          5500                                                                              5500

                                                                                          5000
                                                                                                                                                                            5000
                                                                                          4500

                                                                                          4000                                                                              4500

                                                                                          3500

2002      2003    2004   2005   2006    2007    2008      2009     2010   2011     2012             A M       J A   S O N   D 2009   A M J J A   S O N D 2010   A M J J A


 Daily OHLC                                                                                                 Hourly OHLC
                                                                                          6850                                                                              6850
                                                                                          6800                                                                              6800


 bar chart                                                                                                  bar chart
                                                                                          6750                                                                              6750
                                                                                          6700                                                                              6700
                                                                                          6650
                                                                                                                                                                            6650
                                                                                          6600
                                                                                                                                                                            6600
                                                                                          6550
                                                                                                                                                                            6550
                                                                                          6500
                                                                                                                                                                            6500
                                                                                          6450
                                                                                          6400                                                                              6450
                                                                                          6350                                                                              6400
                                                                                          6300                                                                              6350
                                                                                          6250                                                                              6300
                                                                                          6200                                                                              6250
                                                                                          6150
                                                                                                                                                                            6200
                                                                                          6100                  8             15         22          1
       November     December     2010          February          March           April           February                                            March




Bar charts                                            the end of the period. For example, on the
                                                      monthly chart, a bar indicates the high and the
Four bar charts of the Swiss Market Index are low at which the SMI traded during that single
shown above. They are the most widely used month.
chart types.
The bar charts are:
        High-low charts or
                                                      Line charts
        High-low-close charts or                      Sometimes we use line charts, especially for
        Open-high-low-close charts                    Elliott wave analysis. A line chart is the simplest of
One single bar shows the high and the low of the all methods. It is constructed by joining together
respective trading period. A vertical bar is used to the closing price of each period, for example daily
connect the high and the low. Horizontal lines are closings for the daily line chart, weekly closings
used to show the opening price (left) of that spe- for the weekly chart or monthly closings for the
cific trading period and the closing price (right) at monthy line chart.
                                                                                                                        Daily closing line chart


                         High                             High
                                                                                                                                                                     6500

                                               Open
                                                                                                                                                                     6000

                                                                    Close
                                                                                                                                                                     5500

                         Low                              Low
                                                                                                            May Jun Jul       Aug Sep Oct        Nov Dec 2010



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                                                                           Technical Analysis - Explained



  Break of resistance       Last peak becomes
                            resistance                                                                 35




              Last peak becomes
                                                      Breakout
              resistance                              above                                   30       30

                                                      resistance
 Last peak becomes                                    level
 resistance
                                                                                                       25
                                       Resistance
                                    becomes support



                                                                                  19                   20




                                    Support becomes
                                       resistance                                                      15

Last low
becomes support

                                                                                                       10
               Last low
               becomes support


                                 Last low                                                               5
  Break of support               becomes support
                                                          1996          1997           1998




Support and resistance
Resistance lines are horizontal lines that start at a recent extreme price peak with the line pointing
horizontally into the future. Support lines are horizontal lines that start at a recent extreme of a cor-
rection low and also point toward the future on the time axis. An uptrend continues as long as the
most recent peak is surpassed and new peak levels are reached. A downtrend continues as long as
past lows are broken, sustaining a series of lower lows and lower highs. Notice that the previous
support often becomes resistance and resistance becomes support. A resistance or a support line
becomes more important and breaks above or below these lines gain more credibility as the number
of price extremes (peaks for resistance; or lows for support) that can be connected by a single line
increases.
Some examples for Microsoft are shown on the chart above. Microsoft reached a high of 19 in July
1997. The price started to correct from there and Microsoft remained below this level until February
1998. The 19 level became the resistance, meaning that only if 19 (the highest peak so far in the
uptrend) had been broken on the upside would the stock have confirmed its uptrend. The same is
true for the peak at 30 in July 1998. The uptrend was confirmed when the price rose above this
resistance in November 1998.

Support levels are positioned for example at 11, 15, 20.5 or 22. As long as the price pushes above
past peaks (resistance levels) and holds above past support levels (does not break them) the uptrend
remains intact. The same is true for the bear trend. The downtrend remains intact as long as the price
falls below the recent lows (support levels) and fails to rise above past resistance levels.

A bearish trend reversal occurs when the price breaks through the most recent support after
failing to rise above the most recent resistance. A bullish trend reversal occurs when the price
penetrates the most recent resistance after holding above the most recent support.


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                                                                             Technical Analysis - Explained




                                                                                                        21

                                                                                                        20

                                                                                                        19

                                       Trendline is                                                     18
                                         broken
                                                                                                        17

                                                                                                        16

                                                                                                        15

                                                                                                        14

                                                                                                        13

                                                                                                        12
                                       Trendline is
                                         broken                                                         11

                                                                                                        10

                                                                                                         9

                                                                                                         8
                                                         J   J   A   S   O     N   D   1997   M   A




Trendlines
Resistance levels can either be drawn by horizontal lines (as discussed on the previous page) or can
be uptrending or downtrending lines.

The trendline is nothing more than a straight line drawn between at least three points. In an upmove
the low points are connected to form an uptrend line. For a downtrend the peaks are connected. The
important point is that it should not be drawn over the price action. Trendlines must encorporate all of
the price data, i.e. connect the highs in a downtrend and the lows in an uptrend.

The trendline becomes more important and gains credibility as the number of price extremes that can
be connected by a single line increases. The validity and viability of a line that connects only two price
extremes (for example the starting point and one price low) is questionable.

The trend is broken when the price falls below the uptrend line or rises above the downtrend line.
Some analysts use a 2-day rule, meaning that the trend is only seen as broken if the price closes
above/below the trendline for at least two days. Others use a 1% stop (could be higher depending on
market volatility), meaning the trend is only seen as broken if the price closes over 1% above/below
the trendline.

The chart above shows Intel´s rise from July 1996 to March 1997. Based on the uptrend line, inves-
tors would have held onto the position from around 38/40 until 66 or even 74/76. Most often inves-
tors take profits much too early. Stay with a trend until it breaks, avoiding the urge to sell too
soon because the profit could be higher than you originally thought.



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                                                                           Technical Analysis - Explained




                                                                               HOURS
                                                                          Long-term trend
                                               12                           (lasts about
                                     11                    1                12 months)
                                10                                2

                            9                                         3

        SECONDS                 8                                 4
                                                                                   MINUTES
     Short-term trend
                                                                             Intermediate-term
       (lasts about                   7         6         5                          trend
       2-6 weeks)
                                                                                 (lasts about
                                                                                3-6 months)




Investment horizons
The charts on the previous pages show that investors require perspective. It is imperative to differen-
tiate between a short-term, a medium-term and a long-term trend. If somebody tells you to buy the
US dollar because it is likely to rise, make sure you understand whether the dollar is expected to rise
over a few days or a few months and if you should buy the dollar with the intention to hold it for several
days, several weeks or several months.

For a technician on the trading floor, the long-term horizon is entirely different from that of an institu-
tional investor. For a trader, long-term can mean several days, while for the investor, it can mean 12 to
18 months.

We can compare the charts and indicators to a clock (shown above). Short-term trends (the seconds)
are best analyzed on daily bar charts. Medium-term trends (the minutes) are best seen on weekly bar
charts and long-term trends (the hours) are best seen on monthly bar charts. Some investors only
want to know the hour, some want to know the seconds and some want to know the exact time.

The best investment results are achieved when all three trends on the daily, weekly and monthly
charts point in the same direction.




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                                                                          Technical Analysis - Explained




                                                                                                      1.55

                              Long-term trends
                                                                                                      1.50

                                                1)
                                                                                                      1.45

                       Medium-term trends                                                             1.40


                                                                                                      1.35


                                                                                                      1.30
                                   2)
                                                                                                      1.25


                                                           3)                                         1.20


                                                                                                      1.15

                                                         Short-term trends
                                                                                                      1.10


           1994             1995         1996                   1997             1998




What trend?                                          The chart above shows three US dollar/Swiss
                                                     franc trends.
                                                     1) The uptrend from 1995 to 1997 is long term.
                                                     It is also called the PRIMARY trend (the Hours). It
                                                     was broken by the 1998 decline. The long-term
                                                     uptrend is not a straight line, but is interrupted by
                                                     corrections of a smaller degree.
                                                     2) These corrections are the medium-term or
                                                     intermediate-term trends (the Minutes). They are
                                                     also called SECONDARY trends. The medium-
                                                     term correction is also not a straight line, but is
                                                     made up of smaller corrections.
            Uptrend:           Downtrend:            3) These smaller trends are the short-term
        Higher peaks and     Lower peaks and         trends. They are also called MINOR trends (the
         higher troughs       lower troughs          Seconds).

                                                     A minor downtrend can be part of an intermedi-
          Sideways trend or consolidation:           ate-term uptrend, which itself can be part of a
             Horizontal peaks and troughs            longer-term primary downtrend.
                                                     Sometimes it is difficult to differentiate between
                                                     a short- and a medium-term or a long-term trend.
                                                     Technical analysis helps you to differentiate be-
                                                     tween the various trends in all financial mar-
                                                     kets and instruments.


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                                                                                 Technical Analysis - Explained



        Day Close 5-day Total 5-day Average                  Day Close 5-day Total 5-day Average

         1      50          x             x                  21       48        171               34.2
         2      55          x             x                  22       40        186               37.2
         3      57          x             x                  23       43        199               39.8
         4      60          x             x                  24       41        205                41
         5      65        287            57.4                25       35        207               41.4
         6      70        307            61.4                26       39        198               39.6
         7      66        318            63.6                27       35        193               38.6
         8      60        321            64.2                28       37        187               37.4
         9      50        311            62.2                29       25        171               34.2
         10     54        300            60                  30       18        154               30.8
         11     45        275            55                  31       35        150                30
         12     43        252            50.4                32       50        165                33
         13     33        225            45                  33       40        168               33.6
         14     40        215            43                  34       45        188               37.6
         15     35        196            39.2                35       50        220                44
         16     30        181            36.2                36       70        255                51
         17     25        163            32.6                37       70        275                55
         18     30        160            32                  38       60        295                59
         19     35        155            31                  39       75        325                65
         20     33        153            30.6                40       70        345                69




Moving averages
Moving averages are popular and versatile for                         Price and 5-day moving average
                                                                        Price & 5-day moving average
identifing price trends. They smooth out fluctua-            Price
tions in market prices, thereby making it easier to     80
determine underlying trends.                            70
Their other function is to signal significant changes
                                                                                5-day-moving average
in direction as early as possible.                      60

                                                        50
The simple moving average is the most widely
used. Its calculation is shown above in mathemati-      40

cal form and displayed in the chart on the right.       30            Price
For a 5-day moving average, you simply add the
closing prices of the last five closings and divide     20

this sum by 5. You add each new closing and skip        10
the oldest. Thus, the sum of closings always re-
mains constant at 5 days.                               0
                                                             1    4   7    10 13 16 19   22 25 28 31 34 37 40
                                                                                 Time - Days
Whether you choose a 10-day average or a 40-
week average, the calculation is the same; instead
of adding five days, you add 10 days or 40 weeks and divide the sum by 10 or 40, respectively.
In most of our research, we use the moving average length out of the Fibonacci series (see page 29).
To analyse the short-term trend, we use the 13-day and 21-day averages. For the medium-term
trend, we use the 34-day and 55-day averages. For the long-term trend, we use the 89-day and 144-
day averages. Moreover, we also analyze very long-term trends, the so-called secular trends with the
233-day, 377-day, 610-day and 987-day moving averages.

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                                                                                                Technical Analysis - Explained




                                                                                                                                    9500




                                                                                                                                    9000




                                                                                                                                    8500
                                                                                     5-day moving average


                                                                                                                                    8000

                                                                         21-day moving average

                                                                                                                                    7500




27   3     10   17   24   31    8  14   21   28     5     12   19   26    2    9      16   23   30   7    14   21   28   4    11
     August                September              October                 November               December                1999




The simple moving average (SMA)
The simple moving average yields the mean of a data set for a given period. For example: a
21- day simple moving average (SMA) would include the last 21 days of data divided by 21,
resulting in an average (see chart above for the Dow Industrial Index). This can be calculated at
any given time using the last 21 days; hence, the average moves forward with each trading
day. The moving average is usually plotted on the same chart as price movements, so a change
in direction of trend can be indicated by the penetration/crossover of the SMA. Generally a
buy signal is generated when a price breaks above the moving average and a sell signal is
generated by a price break below the moving average. It is added confirmation when the
moving average line turns in the direction of the price trend.

The moving average naturally lags behind price movement, and the extent by which it lags (or
its sensitivity) is a function of the time span. Generally, the shorter the moving average, the
more sensitive it is. A 5-day moving average will react more quickly to a change in price than
the 21-day moving average, for example. However, the 5-day moving average is more likely
to give false signals and "whipsaw" than the 21-day one, which gives signals later and suffers
from opportunity loss.

Generally, if the market is trending (in an uptrend or downtrend), a longer time period would be
used. If it is ranging (consolidating), the shorter time frame will catch the minor moves more
easily. Moving averages can act as support and resistance (as shown by the arrows on the
chart above for the Dow Jones Industrial Index), similar to the support and resistance dis-
cussed on pages 8 and 9.


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                                                                                                       Technical Analysis - Explained



        Swiss Market Index                                                            Swiss Market Index
          Monthly chart                                               9500              Weekly chart
                                                                                                                                    6500
               The 13-month and 21-month                              9000
                                                                                           The 13-week and 21-week
                moving averages show the                                                   moving averages show the
                     long-term trend                                  8500
                                                                                              medium-term trend                     6000
                                                                      8000

                                                                      7500                                                          5500

                                                                      7000

                                                                                                                                    5000
                                                                      6500

                                                                      6000
                                                                                                                                    4500
                                                                      5500

                                                                      5000                                                          4000

                                                                      4500

                                                                                                                                    3500
                                                                      4000

1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008      2002                  2003                 2004




   Long-term, medium-term and                                                   Swiss Market Index                                  5600
   short-term averages                                                              Daily chart                                     5500

   We incorporate two basic moving averages to                                                                                      5400

   track the three investment horizons as discussed                                                                                 5300
   on page 10. They are shown on the three charts                                                                                   5200
   on this page.                                                                                                                    5100
                                                                                                                                    5000
   On the monthly chart above, the 13-month and
                                                                                                                                    4900
   21-month moving averages track the long-term
   trend.                                                                                                                           4800

   On the weekly chart above, the 13-week and 21-                                                                                   4700

   week moving averages track the medium-term                                                                                       4600
   trend.                                                                                                                           4500
   On the daily chart to the right, the 13-day and 21-                                             The 13-day and 21-day
                                                                                                  moving averages show the          4400
   day moving averages track the short-term trend.                                                    short-term trend
                                                                                                                                    4300
   The direction of the moving averages indicates
                                                                                                                                    4200
   the direction of the three basic trends in force.
                                                                                February              April   May     June   July
   Instead of showing the moving averages on three
   separate charts to illustrate the three basic trends, we more often display all moving averages on a
   single daily chart. This is shown on the next page. The long-term moving average is not shown on the
   monthly chart, but on the daily chart. The medium-term moving average is also shown on the daily
   chart instead of the weekly chart.



   Global Technical Research                                                                                                        - 14 -
                                                                                    Technical Analysis - Explained



                                                                                      S1                       1.54
                           21-day moving average
                                                                                            S2
                                                                                                 S3
                                                                                                               1.52

   The best performance is                            S1         S2                                            1.50

  achieved when the short-                                                                                     1.48
term average is rising above                                                                                   1.46
  the medium-term average
and both are rising above the                                                                                  1.44
 long-term moving average.                                                                                     1.42

                                                                        B1 B2                                  1.40
                                                                                                               1.38
                                                                                                               1.36
                                                                                                               1.34
                                                                                                               1.32
                                                            55-day moving average                              1.30
                                                                                                               1.28
                                                                                                               1.26
                                             144-day moving average                                            1.24
                                                                                                               1.22

       B3                                                                                                      1.20

  B1                                                                                                           1.18
       B2                                                                                                      1.16
    Sep     Oct      Nov        Dec   1997     Feb   Mar   Apr    May   Jun   Jul   Aug    Sep   Oct   Nov




Moving average crossover
The short-term, medium-term and long-term moving averages are all shown here on the daily chart.
The 21-day moving average is shown here for the short-term trend, the 55-day moving average for
the medium-term trend and the 144-day moving average for the long-term trend. Displaying the
three moving averages on one single chart provides important signals based on the moving average
trends and crossovers.

BUY and SELL signals are given
    - when the price crosses the moving average
    - when the moving average itself changes direction
and
    - when the moving averages cross each other

A short-term (trading) buy signal (B1) is given when the price rises above the 21-day moving average.
The buy signal is confirmed when the 21-day average itself starts rising. A short-term (trading) sell
signal (S1) is given in the opposite direction.
A medium-term (tactical) buy signal (B2) is given when the price breaks above the 55-day moving
average. It is confirmed when the 21-day average crosses above the 55-day average and the 55-day
average itself starts rising. A medium-term (tactical) sell signal (S2) is given in the opposite direction.
A long-term (strategic) buy signal (B3) is given when the price rises above the 144-day moving aver-
age. It is confirmed when the 55-day average crosses above the 144-day moving average and the
144-day average itself starts rising. A long-term (strategic) sell signal (S3) is given in the opposite
direction.


Global Technical Research                                                                                    - 15 -
                                                                               Technical Analysis - Explained



        Day    C lo s e   D iffe re n c e fro m           Day       C lo s e    D if f e re n c e f ro m
                           5 d a y s e a r lie r                                 5 d a y s e a rlie r
          1       50                                       21         48                  18
          2       55                                       22         40                  15
          3       57                                       23         43                  13
          4       60                                       24         41                   6
          5       65                                       25         35                   2
          6       70               20                      26         39                   -9
          7       66               11                      27         35                   -5
          8       60                3                      28         37                   -6
          9       50               -1 0                    29         25                  -1 6
         10       54               -1 1                    30         18                  -1 7
         11       45               -2 5                    31         35                   -4
         12       43               -2 3                    32         50                  15
         13       33               -2 7                    33         40                   3
         14       40               -1 0                    34         45                  20
         15       35               -1 9                    35         50                  32
         16       30               -1 5                    36         70                  35
         17       25               -1 8                    37         70                  20
         18       30                -3                     38         60                  20
         19       35                -5                     39         75                  30
         20       33                -2                     40         70                  20




Momentum                                                        Price and 5-day rate of change
                                                                   Price and 5-day difference
                                                       Momentum                                            Price
In physics, momentum is measured by the rate 80                                                        80
of increase and decrease in the speed of an                         Price (RIGHT SCALE)                70
object. In financial markets it is measured by 60
                                                                                                       60
the speed of the price trend, i.e. whether a
                                                     40
trend is accelerating or decelerating, rather than                                                     50

the actual price level itself.                       20                                                40
While moving averages are lagging indicators,
                                                                                                       30
giving signals after the price trend has already      0

turned, momentum indicators lead the price                                                             20

trend. They give signals before the price trend     -20
                                                          Momentum            5-day rate-of-change     10
turns. But once momentum provides a signal it -40 indicator Zero line         (LEFT SCALE)
                                                                                                       0
has to be confirmed by a moving average                 1   4   7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40
crossover.                                                                   Time - Days
Instead of calculating the moving average of the sum of 5 days (see page 12), here we calculate the
difference over a constant 5-day period for a 5-day rate of change. This is shown on the chart above
together with the zero line. If today´s price is higher than five days ago, the indicator is positive, i.e.
above the zero line. If the price continues to rise compared to five days earlier, the indicator rises. If
the price today is lower than five days ago the indicator is negative, i.e. below the zero line. The rate
of change oscillator is rather volatile. Therefore, we have smoothed it out (see blue line) so that it
provides easy-to-read directional change signals as explained on the next page. The moving aver-
ages are always displayed on the same chart and with the same scale as the price from which they
are calculated. The momentum indicators are calculated using the price difference rather than adding
the prices (as with the moving averages). This is why the momentum indicators are displayed with a
different scale than the price scale. On the chart above, it is shown by the scale to the left.

Global Technical Research                                                                                  - 16 -
                                                                                                          Technical Analysis - Explained




                                                                              a+d=top phase
                                                                                        5
                                                                                4
                                                       u+a=                                       6
                                                     bull phase                                                                 positive

                                                                                                                                values
                                                                         3
                                                                                Zero Line        7
                                                                                                                                0
                                                                                                                                negative

                                                                         2             d+t=                                     values
                                                                                    bear phase
                                                                                                      8

                                                              1                                                 1
                                                                                               t+u=bottom phase
                                                                    Time axis




Momentum indicator signals
The principle of momentum applies exactly the same to driving a car as to price movements. When
prices rise and the momentum indicator also rises, the price uptrend accelerates. When prices rise
and the indicator falls, the price uptrend decelerates. When prices fall and the momentum indicator
falls, the price downtrend accelerates. When prices fall and the indicator rises, the price downtrend
decelerates. Therefore, momentum indicators have to be applied together with the moving aver-
ages. The momentum oscillator can be in one of four quadrants:
Up quadrant (u): Oscillator below the zero line and rising.
Advancing quadrant (a): Oscillator above the zero line and rising.
Down quadrant (d): Oscillator above the Zero line and declining.
Terminating quadrant (t): Oscillator below the Zero Line and declining.
The indicator is shown above in an idealized form (bell curve). The same oscillator applies on monthly,
weekly or daily charts to identify the long-, medium- and short-term momentum. It is the length of
the time axis that differentiates the three time horizons. A real-time example is shown on the next
page for IBM on the weekly chart.

1) The indicator is shifting from the "t"erminating phase to the "u"p        is shifting from the "a"dvancing phase to the "d"own phase. The
phase, i.e reversing upwards at an oversold level. Expect a price            indicator is reversing downwards at an overbought level. Expect a
uptrend to start. Buy! 2) The indicator is rising through the "u"p           new price downtrend to start. Liquidate longs. Sell short! 6) The
phase towards the zero line, i.e. the indicator is becoming neutral:         indicator is declining through the "d"own phase towards the zero
Expect the uptrend to continue. Add to longs! 3) The indicator               line. Expect the downtrend to continue. Add to shorts! 7) The
crosses above the zero line. It is shifting from the "u"p phase to the       indicator crosses below the zero line. It is shifting from the "d"own
"a"dvancing phase. An uptrend reversal is unlikely. Expect the               phase to the "t"erminating phase. Expect the downtrend to
uptrend to continue: Hold! 4)The oscillator rises through the                continue: Hold short! 8) The oscillator falls through the "t"erminating
"a"dvancing phase towards the overbought level. Expect the                   phase to the oversold level. Expect the downtrend to bottom out
uptrend to enter the top soon. Get ready to sell! 5) The indicator           soon. Get ready to buy! Buy when a reversal from "t" to "u" occurs.



Global Technical Research                                                                                                                   - 17 -
                                                                                                 Technical Analysis - Explained


       Swiss Market Index                                                     Swiss Market Index
         monthly chart                                                        weekly chart
                                                                     9500
                                                                      9000                                                          6500
                                                                                                                    
                                                                     8500
                                                                      8000                                                          6000

                                                                      7500
                                                                                                                                    5500
                                                                      7000
                                                                      6500
                                                                                                                                    5000
                                                                      6000
                                                                      5500
                                                                                                                                    4500
                                                                      5000
                                                                                                 
                                                                                              
                                                                      4500                                                          4000
                                                                      4000                     
                                                                      3500                                                          3500
              Long-term momentum oscillator                                      Medium-term momentum oscillator
                                                                      4000
                                                                      3000                                                          1000
                                                                      2000                                                           500
                                                                      1000                                                             0
                                                                          0                                                         -500
                                                                      -1000                                                        -1000
                                                                      -2000                      Higher lows in the momentum       -1500
                                                                      -3000
                                                                                                 means the downtrend is slowing.   -2000

1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008                     2003                     2004




                                                                              Swiss Market Index
  Long-term, medium-term and                                                      daily chart                                     5600
  short-term indicators                                                                                                             5500
                                                                                                                                    5400
  We incorporate three momentum indicators to                                                                                       5300
                                                                                                                                    5200
  track the three investment horizons as discussed                                                                                  5100
  on page 10. The monthly or long-term momen-                                                                                       5000
  tum indicator tracks the long-term trend, roughly                                                                                 4900
                                                                                                                4800
  a 10-month rate-of-change). The weekly, me-                                                                   4700
  dium-term or intermediate-term momentum in-                                                                   4600
  dicator (roughly a 10-week rate of change) tracks                                                            4500
                                                                                                               4400
  the medium-term trend while the daily or short-                                                               4300
  term momentum indicator (roughly a 10-day rate                                                                4200
                                                              Short-term momentum oscillator
  of change) tracks the short-term trend.
                                                                                                                1000
  We then combine the momentum indicators with
                                                                                                                 500
  the moving averages to identify the trends in force
  and to assess the most likely future path of these                                                               0
                                                                            Lower highs in the momentum
  trends.                                                                   means the uptrend is slowing.
                                                                                                                -500

  The highest investment return is achieved when                                                               -1000

  investors start buying at the momentum bottom
                                                         February March   April     May        June       July
  and add to positions when the price confirms the
  momentum indicator´s uptrend and rises above the
  moving average. Likewise, investors should start selling if the momentum indicator tops out and sell
  more if the price falls below the moving average. Thus, a combination of the signals given by the
  momentum oscillators, moving averages, and support and resistance should be applied.


  Global Technical Research                                                                                                        - 18 -
                                                                                  Technical Analysis - Explained



                                                    55-day (medium-term)                                   1.55
                                                    moving average
   21-day (short-term) moving average
                                                                                                           1.50

                                                                                                           1.45

                                                                                                           1.40

                                                                                                           1.35

                                                    144-day (long-term)                                    1.30
                                                    moving average
                                                                                                           1.25
                                                                          Monthly (long-term) indicator
                                              Weekly (medium-term) indicator                               1.20
  Daily (short-term) indicator
                                                                                                           2000

                                                                                                           1500

                                                                                                           1000

                                                                                                            500

   Sep   Oct     Nov    Dec      1997   Feb   Mar     Apr    May    Jun    Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct    Nov



Trend and momentum combination
On page 15, we pictured the three moving averages on one single chart which was the daily chart. We
do the same analysis here with the momentum indicators. We show all three momentum indicators
on the daily chart together with the short-term, medium- and long-term moving averages.
On the chart above for the US dollar/Swiss franc, the long-term trend was rising from 1996 until
August 1997. The US dollar was trading above the rising 144-day average and the long-term momen-
tum indicator was rising until it topped in September. The momentum indicator´s top was soon con-
firmed by the dollar´s fall below the 144-day average in September and October. The long-term top
was also indicated by the negative divergence (dashed blue line) in the medium-term momentum
indicator, which registered a lower high in September compared to its high in March. Thus it did not
confirm the new price high in the US dollar at CHF 1.54 in August.
The medium-term trend was bullish from September 1996 until March 1997 when the weekly indica-
tor topped and the US dollar fell below the slowing 55-day average. The medium-term top in March
was also indicated by the negative divergence of the daily momentum indicator, which did not confirm
the new high in the US dollar in February 1997 at 1.49. The daily indicator registered a top that was
lower than the top in January.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE SIX INDICATORS reveals the most likely future path of the underlying
market in all asset classes. The 21-day average is monitored in combination with the daily (short-
term) momentum indicator, the 55-day average with the weekly (medium-term) indicator and the
144-day average with the monthly (long-term) momentum indicator.
The most positive technical constellation is present when the price is above the short-term average,
which in turn is rising above the medium-term average, which in turn is rising above the 144-day
moving average. AT THE SAME TIME, the daily, weekly and monthly momentum indicators are rising.
The same is true in the opposite direction for the most negative constellation.

Global Technical Research                                                                                 - 19 -
                                                                                                    Technical Analysis - Explained



                                                                                                                                          55
   IBM (weekly chart)                                                                                                                     50

                                                                                                                                          45
                                                 21-week moving average
                                                                                                                                          40
                                             13-week moving average
                                                                                                                                          35

                                                                                                                                          30

                                                                                                                                          25
                                                                            Medium-term momentum indicator
                                                                                                                                          20

                                                                                                                                         15
                     Redistribution                         OVERBOUGHT                     SELL                                        4000
                                                                                                                                       3000
                                                                                                                                       2000
                                                                                                                                       1000
                                                    a d                           a d
                                                                                                                                           0
                                                                  t u      OVERSOLD
                                                                                                  t u                                 -1000
                  Re-accumulation
1995                                         1996                                        1997            BUY


Reversal and redistribution
IBM is shown above together with the medium-term momentum indicator on the weekly chart. Sig-
nals are given when the trend reverses an extreme lev-
els. The stock is said to be OVERBOUGHT when the                    Redistribution example
momentum oscillator reaches an extreme upper level            Initial                   True curve
above the zero line and OVERSOLD when it reaches an         sell signal
                                                                                         Secondary
extreme lower level below the zero line. The oscillator                                  sell signal
acts like a rubber band: the further it stretches, the more
the prices need energy to sustain the trend, i.e. a trend   Zero line
reversal should be expected the more stretched the mo-                   a d a d
mentum indicator becomes.
Sometimes signals leave room for interpretation (tech-
                                                                         Very high-risk       t
                                                                        speculative buy
nical analyis is an art not a science). The indicator does                   signal
not always cross the zero line before giving a new buy-
or sell signal. These signals are called redistribution ex-        Momentum indicator
amples (see scheme on the right and chart above) or
re-accumulation.
Sometimes, the oscillator turns upwards again from a high level         This is seen as a high-risk selling opportunity. Most of the time, the
above the zero line instead of bottoming below the zero line. This      ensuing declines are short-lived and are, more often than not, fully
is seen as a high-risk buying opportunity. Most of the time the         retraced.
ensuing price rallies are short-lived and are, more often than not,     The pause and delay in the aberrated trend is often
fully retraced. The same pattern can occur in the opposite direction    psychologically quite unnerving for the investor. Therefore, patience
when the indicator turns downward again from a low level below          becomes a tactical requirement, allowing the major underlying
the zero line (still oversold) instead of topping above the zero line   trend forces to rebase at the adjusted price level.
(overbought level).



Global Technical Research                                                                                                             - 20 -
                                                                          Technical Analysis - Explained


           IBM
           (weekly chart)                       145                                                        35

                                                140

                                                135                                                        30

                                                130

                                                125
                                                                                                           25
                                                120          Halliburton
                                                             (weekly chart)
                                                115
     Medium-term momentum indicator
     above Zero and rising.                                      Medium-term momentum indicator
                                               1500              above Zero and declining.               3000
                                                                                                         2000
                                               1000
                                                                                                         1000
                                                500                                                         0
                                                                                                        -1000
                                                  0

           2010                         2011                       2010                          2011




                                                       Portfolio analysis
                                                       Each day we calculate the position of over 1000
                                                       stocks on the short-, medium- and long-term
                                                       momentum model. Four stocks are shown on
                                                       this page, each displaying the medium-term in-
                                                       dicator in one of the 4 possible positions. In-
                                                       vestors should look to buy stocks with a rising
                                                       momentum indicator while selling the stocks
                                                       with a falling momentum indicator.


                                                 65                                                       85
                                                                                Entergy                   84
                                                                                (weekly chart)            83
                                                 60                                                       82
                                                                                                          81
                                                                                                          80
                                                 55                                                       79
                                                                                                          78
                                                                                                          77
                                                 50                                                       76
        Zimmer Holding                                                                                    75
        (weekly chart)                                                                                    74
                                                 45                                                       73
                                                                                                          72
                                                                                                          71
       Medium-term momentum indicator             40                                                      70
       below Zero and rising.                   2500       Medium-term momentum indicator below          1500
                                                2000       Zero and declining.
                                                1500                                                     1000
                                                1000                                                      500
                                                 500
                                                   0                                                       0
                                                -500
                                                                                                         -500
                                               -1000

          2010                          2011                      2010                           2011




Global Technical Research                                                                               - 21 -
                                                                                Technical Analysis - Explained



                         % C Y C L E P H A S E D IS T R IB U T IO N
                           N u m b e r o f F ile s = 1 0 0 %                       30


                                            Long       I n t e r m e d ia t e    S h o rt
                                            C y c le          C y c le           C y c le
                             Up                0                 17                50
                       A d v a n c in g       30                 53                13
                        D e c lin in g        30                 23                 7
                      T e r m in a t in g     40                  7                30




Cycle phase distribution
On the previous page, we pictured 4 stocks and their            53%                   23%
weekly momentum indicators. If we take 30 stocks in-
stead of only 4 and calculate the medium-term indicator
for each of the 30 stocks, we can calculate the number
of stocks positioned in each cycle quadrant.
The example above shows the 30 stocks in the Dow
Jones Industrial Index. For each stock, we calculated the                    17%
position of the long-term, medium-term and short-term
momentum indicators. On the right, we highlight the dis-                          7%
tribution of the medium-term indicators from the table
above. The distribution shows
       5 stocks (17%) with a momentum indicator rising       Intermediate-term momentum cycle
       below the zero line (up).
       16 stocks (53%) with a momentum indicator rising above the zero line (advancing).
       7 stocks (23%) with a momentum indicator falling above the zero line (down).
       2 stocks (7%) with a momentum indicator falling below the zero line (terminating).
Thus, the entire portfolio of 30 stocks equals 100%. We use percentages so that we can compare
different portfolios and markets with different stocks and different asset classes.

The same percentage distribution is shown above for the long-term indicators and the short-term
indicators. From this data, we can see that, as of this point in time, the 30 stocks were quite advanced
in their intermediate-term uptrend (a+d=76%; see page 17 for cycle phases). Moreover, the long-
term analysis shows that most stocks were in the bearish phase (d+t=70%). Only the short-term
cycle pointed to strength (u+a=63%).
We do this type of momentum analysis for over 1000 stocks, 80 stock market indices, 40 commodi-
ties, bond-futures and 40 interest rate series. Also, for the US dollar against 40 currencies and the
same for the Japanese yen, euro, Swiss franc and British pound each against 40 currencies. We
search for those financial market series that are best positioned in bull phases. The indicators provide
a clear outlook and objectivity for the broad market trends, allowing you to buy and sell against the
backdrop of subjective emotional stress. You need to build trust in these indicators so that you
can buy against the prevailing pessimism and sell against the prevailing optimism.


Global Technical Research                                                                               - 22 -
                                                                                         Technical Analysis - Explained




                                                                  and                                     Waves
                                                                                                          Waves
                                                                                                          Waves



The Elliott Wave Principle
                                               s
The Wave Principle was Ralph Nelson Elliott’discovery of how social or crowd behaviour trends and
reverses in recognizable patterns. It is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The
description reveals that there is a PSYCHE OF THE CROWD inherent in all representative financial
market series. The crowd is not a physical crowd but a psychological crowd. It constantly moves from
pessimism to optimism, from fear to greed and from euphoria to panic and back in a natural psycho-
logical sequence, creating specific patterns in price movements. This concept of recursive patterns
across finer and finer scales in the financial markets (their fractal nature), was proposed by Elliott in
                                      s
the 1930s, which antedates today’formal study of non-linear dynamics and chaos.
The main point emerging from the Elliott Wave concept is that markets have form (pattern). It is here
that the investor finds determinism in a seemingly random process. Elliott discovered what the main
initiator of the chaos theory, Benoit Mandelbrot, confirmed 50 years later in collaboration with Henry
Houthakker, an economics professor at Harvard: that patterns made by taking very short-term "snap-
shots" of stock prices, for example every day are similar to patterns formed by snapshots taken once
a week, or once a month, or even once a year.
Elliott isolated thirteen patterns. He cataloged them and explained that they link together, and where
they are likely to occur in the overall path of the market development.

The basic pattern shows that markets move forward in a series     of 5 waves (1) and (3) and two sets of three wave patterns (2)
of 5 waves of psychological development (from pessimism to        and (4), a final set of 5 waves materializes and completes the
optimism). When these 5 forward waves are complete, a             whole pattern.
reaction sets in, taking place in 3 waves (from optimism to       At this point, after wave (5) is complete, there is now a set of
pessimism).                                                       3 waves (a), (b) and (c) of greater magnitude than the two
Numbers are used to designate "5-wave" patterns, and letters      previous corrections. This set would correct the whole of the 5
to designate "3-wave" patterns. These 8 waves then complete       upward waves, which themselves had each broken into 5 and
a cycle from which a new series of 5 waves commences, to be       3 smaller waves along the way.
followed by another set of 5 waves. And finally, after two sets


Global Technical Research                                                                                                  - 23 -
                                                                                                                             Technical Analysis - Explained



       Catalog of impulsive waves

          Impulsive patterns in bull markets                                                    Impulsive patterns in bear markets
                                                5
                                                                                        Basic
                                                                                                                                     2
                           3

                                                                                    5                                        1
                                    4                                               v                                                                  4
              1                                                           iii
                                                              i                                            2
                                                    3
                                                                                                                                                 3
                                                                                iv
                  2                                                      ii

                                                                                                       1                         4                                  5
                                                        4
                                                                               Fifth wave wedge
                            1
                                                                                                                                                  ii

                                                                                                                                                              iv
                                                                                                                         3
                                    2                                                                                                        i
                                                                                    5                                                                  iii
                                                    3                               v                                                                                   v
                                                                         iii                                                                                            5
                                                                i
                                                                               iv                                  2
                                                                    ii
                            1                               4
                                                                               Fifth wave failure
                                                                                                               1                                  4 ii
                                2                                                                                                                                  iv
                                                                                                                                                       i
                                                                                                                                                             iii
                                                                                        5
                                                                                                                                         3                                  v
                                                                      3                                    2
                                                                                                                                                                        5
                                                                     (5)
                                                                                                                       (2)
                                                        (3)
                                                        5
                                                                                                                             2
                                                3
                                                                                                   1
                                                                                                               (1) 1
                                                                                    4
                                                    4       (4)

                                                                         Third wave extension                                        4
                                        1                                                                                                        (4)         4
                          (1)                                                                                                    3
                  1
                                            2                                                                                            5
                                                                                                                                         (3)
                                (2)                                                                                                                  (5)
                                                                                                                                                      3
                      2
                                                                                                                                                                            5


Global Technical Research                                                                                                                                                       - 24 -
                                                                                 Technical Analysis - Explained



       Catalog of corrective patterns

        Corrective patterns in bull markets               Corrective patterns in bear markets

                                                                                 C                       C
                                            Simple ZigZag (5-3-5)

                    B                   B                            A                       A


                A                   A                                    B                           B
                                                                                                         C

                            C                   C
                    B                                                                        A
                                X                                                C

                                                Double ZigZag                                        B
                A                       B                            A

                            C                                                        X
                                    A                                    B

                                                C
                     B                  B                            A           C           A           C
                                             Regular Flat (3-3-5)




                A           C       A           C                        B                           B

                                                                                 C                       C
                                            Irregular Flat (3-3-5)
                     B                  B
                                                                     A                       A




                A                   A
                            C                   C                        B                           B




                                B                                            A
                                        D                                                C
                                                                                                     E



                                            E                                                    D
                                    C                                                B
                            A                Triangle (3-3-3-3-3)




Global Technical Research                                                                                    - 25 -
                                                                                     Technical Analysis - Explained
                                                                                                                     5
   30                                                                                                     3
   25


                                                                                                                4
   20
                                                                                           1
   15
                                                                 5               B
   10
                                            3                                                  2
                                                                         A
    5                     1                            4
                                                                                 C

                              2
        Oct   Nov   Dec   Jan Feb
                          1998      Mar   Apr    May   Jun       Jul      Aug        Sep   Oct      Nov       Dec




Impulsive wave patterns
If you have followed the argument thus far, the impli-     38

cations begin to appear. Given a series of 5- and 3-       36
                                                                                                                    5
wave patterns, the investor should be able to predict      34
the continuation of the next 5-3 pattern until a larger
wave pattern is completed. It is the knowledge of          32

these patterns that allows the investor to recognize
when a trend change will occur before it has occured.
                                                           30
                                                                                                   3
                                                           28

                                                           26
An example of a five-wave pattern is shown above
for Yahoo. The chart is taken from our real-time rec-      24

ommendation. We said in December that the long-
term uptrend was not complete yet, and that at least
                                                           22

                                                           20
                                                                                                              4
one more upleg (wave 5) should be expected.                18
                                                                         1
The chart on the right is updated to show the 5-wave       16

pattern that was completed from the low in August at       14                                                              7.
Wave correlation suggested that the minimum price          12
target was around 35. The price reached 36 in wave         10
                                                                                                                           5
and was immediately followed by a sharp correction.
Ultimately, the price completed another five-wave            8
                                                                                 2
pattern at 440.                                              6    C
                                                                     September   October       November   December      1999




Global Technical Research                                                                                               - 26 -
                                                                           Technical Analysis - Explained




                            B
                                    D


                                                                       B
                                                                               D
                                        E
                       A        C                                                   E
                                                                   A       C




Corrective wave patterns
Page 25 shows the corrective patterns which can appear in financial markets. Corrective patterns can
become very complex and difficult to interpret. However, once a correction is completed, its form
provides important information on the most likely path of the next impulsive wave.

The chart above displays one of the most widely recognized patterns: the horizontal triangle.   It is
shown on the hourly chart of ATT between 27 October and late November between 65 and 60. Soon
after wave E was completed the stock broke out on the upside and reinstated its larger uptrend.

The triangle example above is one of a few thousand that we have seen developing. Some triangles
are ascending, some are descending and some are expanding. Together with the Zigzags and Flats
they make up the list of corrective patterns.

What sets the wave principle apart and ahead of other technical approaches is primarily this character-
istic of design and form. Each market pattern has a name and specific form determined by a small
number of rules and guidelines. Yet, a specific pattern is never identical to another pattern of the
same type. The patterns are variable enough in some aspects to allow for limited diversity within
patterns of the same type. It is this "self-similarity" which makes up the difference between
deterministic chaos and random-walk.




Global Technical Research                                                                          - 27 -
                                                                          Technical Analysis - Explained



                         Head                                            H
                            5                                            H
                                                                        S S         Neckline
               Left              Right
             Shoulder           Shoulder                                        S
                                                                    S
                 3                  B

                                        (2)
                     4          A                              Neckline of
                                                               inverse head &
                                                               shoulder                        S
                                     (1) (4)                                    S
               Neckline

                                           (3)

                                    Target       (5)
                                                                                     H
                                                 C

Head and shoulder reversal pattern
The H&S is the best known of all chart reversal patterns and is formed when an uptrend loses mo-
mentum, levels off and then establishes a downtrend. At "3" on the graph above left, the uptrend is
powerful, with no evidence of a top formation. Volume tends to pick up as higher highs are made. The
dip to "4" on lighter volume is, at this stage, considered a correction within the broader uptrend. The
rally to "5" on diminishing volume alerts the technician that a top may be close at hand. The fall in
prices to "A" is breaking the uptrend, falling towards the previous reaction low at "4". The market then
rallies to "B" which is generally 50% to 61.80% of the decline from "5" to "A". To re-establish the
primary uptrend, each swing high must exceed the high preceding it. The failure of "B" to regain the
high at "5" fulfills half the requirement for a trend reversal (i.e. descending peaks).
Additionally the uptrend line by this stage has been broken on decline "5" to "A", and now all that
remains is the break of the "neckline" drawn under the two reaction lows "4" and "A". The neckline can
be upward sloping or downward sloping or may be horizontal. A closing break below the neckline on
increased volume activates this pattern.
The measured target of the break is the height of the "head" above the neckline (wave 5 to wave A),
projected down from the neckline break.
The INVERSE head and shoulder formation works exactly the same only in the opposite direction.

This basic head and shoulder has one negative aspect: investors have to wait for a break of the
neckline to sell. However, such a break may occur rather late if the head occurs at a highly over-
bought level. Applying Elliott Wave analysis together with momentum analysis provides a much earlier
sell signal which is when the five-wave uptrend tops and the correction starts to display impulsive
patterns on the downside. Moreover, Fibonacci correlations allow for a more precise method to
analyze the wave correlation, retracement and wave length as shown on the next page.


Global Technical Research                                                                          - 28 -
                                                                              Technical Analysis - Explained




         1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144,
         233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584...........      1.618 = 3/2, 5/3, 8/5, 13/8,
                                                        .....
                1+1=2
                2+1=3                                   0.618 = 2/3, 3/5, 5/8, 8/13,
                3+2=5                                   .....
                5+3=8
                8+5=13
                13+8=21                                         A         B                    C
                21+13=34
                34+21=55
                55+34=89
                89+55=144                                       AB/BC=BC/AC=0.618
                144+89=233
                233+144=377                             Any length can be divided so the ratio between
                377+233=610                             the smaller part and the larger part is equiva-
                                                        lent to the ratio between the larger part and
                etc...........                          the whole. The ratio is always 0.618.



Fascinating Fibonacci
It may surprise you to learn that the universe, the constellations, the galaxy, flowers, oceans, plant life,
man, natural science, music, architecture AND THE FINANCIAL MARKETS have one thing in com-
mon: the FIBONACCI SEQUENCE. Leonardo Fibonacci was a thirteenth century mathematician who
developed a number sequence of the form:
1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987 ............ where each number is the sum of
the previous two numbers.
This sequence of numbers has some very important properties.
For example: The ratio of any number to the next number in the sequence is 0.618 to 1 and to the
next lower number is 1.618.
Between alternate numbers in the sequence the ratio is 2.618 or its inverse 0.382.
These numbers have some special relationship of their own such as
2.618 - 1.618 = 1                    0.618 x 0.618 = 0.382
1 - 0.618 = 0.382                    1.618 x 1.618 = 2.618
2.618 x 0.382 = 1

Additional phenomena relating to the Fibonacci sequence includes:
1) No two consecutive numbers in the sequence have any common factors.
2) The sum of any ten numbers in the sequence is divisible by 11.
3) The sum of all Fibonacci numbers in the sequence +1 equals the Fibonacci number two steps
ahead.
4) The square of a Fibonacci number minus the square of the second number below it in the se-
quence is always a Fibonacci number.
There are numerous relationships within this series, but the most important is 1.618 or 0.618. It is
known as the Golden Ratio or Golden Mean (or phi) and governs nature´s growth patterns.

Global Technical Research                                                                                 - 29 -
                                                                          Technical Analysis - Explained




       Waves 1 & 2                        Waves 1 & 3                   Waves 3 & 4




                                                                                        0.382
                                                                                        or
                                                                                        0.618




              0.618 or                            1.618 or                        1.0
              0.382                               2.618

       1.0                                1.0

       Waves 1 to 3 & 5                               Waves A & B & C in corrections
                                                                                   0.382 or
                                                                                   0.618




                            0.618               1.0                         1.0

                                                                                        1.0 or
                                                         1.0 or                         1.618
                                    1.0                  1.618


                                          0.618

                                                0.382             Wave correlations
                   1.0                                            The most important wave correla-
                                                                  tions in bull markets (impulse waves)
                                    Triangle waves                and bear markets (corrective waves)
                                                                  are shown on this page.




Global Technical Research                                                                          - 30 -
                                                                              Technical Analysis - Explained




                                                5
              61.80% retracement
             of the entire bull cycle                   B
                      from                  3
                  1995 to 1998


                                    1       4
                                                    A
                                                        C
                                        2                                  0.618




                                                             61.80% retracement
                                                            of the entire bull cycle   0.382
                                                              from 1995 to 1998




Fibonacci correlations - more than coincidence
A man´s body, if you divide the body at the navel - from the navel to the top of the head is about a
0.618 ratio of the lower part of the body (from the navel to the feet).
The ratio 0.618 to 1 is the mathematical basis for the Parthonon, sunflowers, snail shells, spiral galax-
ies of outer space or the human DNA spiral. Spirals on shells when examined more closely are shown
to have arcs whose lengths are ratios of their diameters that equate to 1.618, and the larger radius is
related to the smaller radius by 1.618. This is known as the golden spiral. The Greeks based much of
their art and architecture on this proportion.
Financial markets have the same mathematical basis as natural laws. This is because the markets are
not only numbers or economic factors but most importantly reflect human nature: crowd emotions
in motion. Elliott was probably the first to associate Fibonacci with technical analysis and when he
wrote "Nature´s Law" referred specificially to the Fibonacci sequence as the mathematical basis for
the wave principle: a bull market sub-divides into 5 legs, and a bear market into 3 legs which makes a
total of 8. If the subwaves are counted, we arrive at 34 waves (see page 23).
The charts above show examples of a 61.80% retracement on a long-term basis. The decline from
July 1998 had retraced exactly 61.80% of the previous bull trend from 1995 to 1998 at 55. More-
over, within the long-term uptrend, wave 1 traced out five subwaves from 4Q 1994 to 1Q 1996. The
correction traced out a perfect a-b-c pattern. Wave c was equal in length to wave a and the entire a-
b-c correction retraced 61.80% of the previous five-wave structure. We could show you hundreds of
such examples.
The wave pattern and the Fibonacci relations are the language of the financial markets. It
takes time to learn it, but in the end you will understand what the markets are indicating and
that it is the mood of the crowd which shapes the fundamental world and not vice versa. The
fundamental news and trends are mostly triggered by mass mood psychology.


Global Technical Research                                                                             - 31 -
                                                                                   Technical Analysis - Explained



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                                                                                                                                              Technical Analysis - Explained
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                                                                                                                                      Technical Analysis - Explained
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Description: Technical Analysis - Explained