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Jan Culbertson1_ Frances Gelwick2_ and Sammy Ray3_ Texas Parks .pdf

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Jan Culbertson1_ Frances Gelwick2_ and Sammy Ray3_ Texas Parks .pdf Powered By Docstoc
					                       Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Eastern Oyster (Crassostrea virginica) Populations and Their
                                Relationships to Dermo (Perkinsus marinus) Infection and Freshwater Inflows
                                                      in West Matagorda Bay, Texas
                                                                                 Jan Culbertson1, Frances Gelwick2, and Sammy Ray3,
                                          Texas Parks and Wildlife Department in Dickinson1, Texas A&M University in College Station2, Texas A&M University in Galveston, TX3
                                                                                                                                                                                    AvgDailySalinitySam




                                                                                                                                                                                                            Dayof5Yrs 3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Environmental                   Growth Response to Freshwater Inflows
                                              Objective                                                                         TempIN 3
                                                                                                                                           NormDeviateTemp 3
                                                                                                                                                                      TempOut 3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     SalIN 3                                  SalOut 3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sub-Models
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 NormDeviateSalinity 3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Simulates 50-yrs                                                                       50-yrs Market
                                                                                                        AvgDailyTemperatureSam              AvgDailyTemperatureData Sam
An integrated Matagorda Bay oyster model was developed in Stella to                                                                                             ~
                                                                                                                                                                                             PredSam
                                                                                                                                                                                                            ~
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           of continuous                                                                          abundance and
simulate oyster population responses to stochastic environmental                                                              DermoTemp LimitsSam
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           daily hydrological,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     AvgDailyFlowDataSam                                        FlowIn 3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              NormDeviateFlow 3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               FlowOut 3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  growth
changes over a 50-year period.                                                                                                                                        Salinity Growth LimitsSam                                                     ~
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           meteorological,
                                                                                                                     TempGrowthLimitsSam                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          increased
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           and tide data                               Sammy’s Reef Increased Growth
                                           Study Area                                                                                                                                                                                               AvgDailyFlowSam


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           using 0.1, 1.0 and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  following
Three reefs in Matagorda Bay: Shell Island (154-acres), Mad Island (112-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                TideIn 3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              NormDeviateTide 3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        TideOut 3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  sustained
                                                                                                                                       Temp and Salinity                                                                                       AvgDailyTideData 3                                                                                          2.0 SD of 2001-                   Mad Island Reef Increased Growth
acres) and Sammy’s Reef (9-acres) receive freshwater inflows from                                                                     Growth ConstantSam
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ~
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   AvgDailyTide 3


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2005 historical                                                                        freshwater
Colorado River.                                                                                                                                                                                                         DermoSalinity LimitsSam

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           records.                                                                               inflows (0.1 SD
                                                                                                                                                                         SalinitStressSam


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Shell Island Reef Increased Growth                              Model
                                                                                                                                                      SalintyINSam

                                                                                                                                   LarvalTidalAmpMatagorda
                                                                                                                                                                                                 SalinityOutSam
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Simulation)
                                                                                                        MadLarv aetoDelta

                                                             Colorado River                                                                             AvgDayFlowColRiver                            SpawningRestrictionsMad



                                                                                                                                                   SpawndateInMad SpawnWatingTMad
                                                                                                                                                                                SpawnDateOutMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Temperature RestrictionsMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Salinity RestrictionsMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Oyster Population
                                                                                                          MadLarv aeCounter
                                                                                                                                  MadLarv aetoShell
                                                                                                                                                                         NSubMarketSpawnersMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                            ProbSpawnersMad

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ~
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Day Of Y earMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Av gDaily TemperatureMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sub-Models
                                                                                                                                     Density DependMad
                                                                                                                                                        SpawningSeasonMad                                            NMrkSpawnersMad          NMrkPlusSpawnersMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Harv estSeasonMad                             TempINMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 NormDev iateTempMad       Simulates oyster
                                                                                                          ColoradoDeltaLarvae
                                                                                                                                               ~


                                                                                                                                                                              DermoMortNSubMrkMad            DermoMortNMrkMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           MrkFishingMad                    Av gDaily TemperatureDataMad

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ~
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           population growth,                                                                    50-yrs Market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             DermoMortNMrkPlusMad
                                                                                                                                       NLarv aeMad
                                                                                                                                                                         NSpatMad                          NSubMrkMad                         NMrkMad                               NMrkPlusMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           spawning,                                                                             oyster
                                                                        Delta                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Temp Growth LimitsMad Salinity Growth LimitsMad



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           fecundity,                                                                            abundance and
                                                                                                                   SpawningMad
                                                                                                                                                         to SpatMad                     to SubMrkMad                        to MrkMad                            to MrkPlusMad
                                                                                                           SamLarvaetoMad              Larv alLossMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      SubMrkTransDay sMad
                                                                                                                                                                                 SpatTransDay sMad                                                  MrkTransDay sMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         MrkMortMad                                                                         DermoTempLimitsMad
                                                                                                                       Larv alMMad
                                                                                                        AvgDayFlowColRiver
                                                                                                                                              Larv aeTransDay sMad
                                                                                                                                                                      SpatMortMad                        SuMrkMortMad                                              MrkPlusMortMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Temp and Salinity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Growth Constant Mad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           distribution of                                    Mad Island Reef Fast Growth        growth
                                                                                                                                                                                             SalinityMMad                       SalinityMMad
                                                                                                                                                              SpatMMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Salinity MMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           larvae, spat set,                                                                     decreased
                                                                       Shell Island Reef                           MadEmigrationLoss
                                                                                                                                                    ~
                                                                                                                                                SpatDDMadSalinityMMad
                                                                                                                                                                                             SubMrkMMad                                                    MrkPlusMMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               DermoSalinity LimitsMad



                                                                                                                  Larv aeTransDay sMad         29.5            SpatTransDay sMad         270.5           MrkTransDay sMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                MrkMMad

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     870.2              MrkTransDay sMad            870.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           density of                                                                            following
                                                                  Mad Island Reef                                                                                                                                                                                                   MrkGMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               DermoEnv irStressMad

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           population, Dermo
                                                                                                                                Larv aeGMad     Temp and Salinity
                                                                                                                                              Growth Constant Mad
                                                                                                                                                                      SpatGMad                     Temp and Salinity SubMarketGMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Growth Constant Mad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Temp and Salinity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Growth Constant Mad                                   DermoStressNMrkPlusMad                                                                                                                reduced
                          Matagorda Bay
                                                                                                                LarvalTidalAmpMatagorda
                                                                                                                                                          DermoMortNSubMrkMad                                           DermoMortNMrkMad                  DermoMortNMrkPlusMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           infection, and
                                                       Sammy’s Reef                                      MadLarv aetoSam
                                                                                                             AvgDayFlowColRiver
                                                                                                                                           DermoStressSubMrkMad
                                                                                                                                                                                    SpawningSeasonMad       SpawningSeasonMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                DermoIn 6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           DermoOut 6                                                                                                            freshwater
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             DermoStressMrkMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      SpawningSeasonMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           mortality.
                                                                                                            DermoEnvirStressMad
                                                                                                                                         DermoIn 8               DermoOut 8
                                                                                                                                                                                          DermoEnvirStressMad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  DermoIn 7                     DermoOut 7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               AvgDayFlowColRiver
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 inflows (2.0 SD
                                                                                                                                                                                                                AvgDayFlowColRiver

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Model
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Results                                                                                                                                                                                Simulation)
                                         TPWD Oyster Dredge Stations
                                         LCRA Water Quality Stations                                Spawning/Larvae Distribution Responses to Freshwater Inflows
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   10 yrs
                                               Methods                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Dermo Responses to Freshwater Inflows
Matagorda Bay oyster model utilizes 2001-2005 historical trends:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Longer time
• Average daily flow from Colorado River and tides from Gulf pass.
• Monthly oyster abundance collected by Texas Parks and Wildlife                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Longer time between peaks to reach lethal levels    required to reach
Department (TPWD) at Shell Island, Mad Island and Sammy’s Reefs.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                lethal Dermo
• Average daily salinity and temperature data from Lower Colorado River                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         infection levels
Authority (LCRA) stations on Shell Island Reef and Gulf Intracoastal                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            following
Waterway (GIWW) outlet into Matagorda Bay.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      sustained
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                freshwater inflows
Matagorda Bay oyster model evaluates:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           in Mad Island Reef
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                oyster
Explanatory Variables of Model: salinity, salinity-prior month,
temperature, temperature-prior month, distance from freshwater,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 populations over
inflows, inflows-prior month, tides and sample date                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             50-yr period (0.1
Response Variables of Model: oyster population growth, reproduction,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            SD Simulation)
larvae distribution, abundance of larvae, spat, sub-market, and market                                                    10-yrs
oysters, dead oysters, and Dermo Infection
                                                                                                     Peaks indicate when each reef spawned following freshwater inflows (0.1 SD
                  Avg Daily Salinity Shell Isl. Reef
                                                                                                     Simulation Run). Results are comparable with three oyster populations’                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Shorter time
                                                                                                     historic trends or responses to floods and droughts. Blue-Shell Isl. Red-Mad                                                                                                                                                                                                           Shorter time between peaks to reach lethal levels
                  Avg Daily Discharge Bay City                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  required to reach
                                                                                                     Isl. Green-Sammy’s Black-Colorado Delta                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    lethal Dermo
                  30                                                      70000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 infection levels
                                                                          60000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                following reduced
                  25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                freshwater inflows
                                                                          50000
                                                                                  Discharge (cfs)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                in Mad Island Reef
 Salinity (ppt)




                  20
                                                                          40000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 oyster
                  15                              ar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                populations over
                                                                          30000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 50-yr period (2.0
                  10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            SD Simulation)
                                                                          20000
                   5                                                      10000

                   0                                                      0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Conclusions
                         1/1/2001
                         5/1/2001
                        8/29/2001

                        4/26/2002
                        8/24/2002

                        4/21/2003
                        8/19/2003

                        4/15/2004
                        8/13/2004

                        4/10/2005
                         8/8/2005
                        12/6/2005
                       12/27/2001



                       12/22/2002



                       12/17/2003



                       12/11/2004




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 • Modelshowed growth, spawning and spat set were positively related to duration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 and timing of freshwater inflows; and also distance from freshwater sources.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 • Up-estuary reefs relied on the distribution of larvae from down-estuary reefs
Historical record (2001-2005) for average daily salinity at Shell Island                                                 10-yrs                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  following freshwater related mortalities, and meteorological and tidal forces.
Reef, (LCRA) and average daily discharge from Colorado River at Bay                                  Peaks indicate when reef populations spawned following sustained
City used in environmental sub-models for Matagorda Bay oyster                                       reduction in freshwater inflows (2.0 SD simulation). After 10-yrs only Shell                                                                                                                                                                                                • Matagorda Bay oyster populations are integral members of a dynamic bay
model. High freshwater inflows influence salinity at Shell Island Reef,                              Island and Colorado Delta oyster populations were able to spawn at                                                                                                                                                                                                          ecosystem that function as one unit and not separate reef populations.
located closest to Delta.                                                                            optimum salinity conditions. Amplitude of responses decreased at all reefs.

				
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